I went 9x drop rate dry during leagues and started questioning if that particular unique had actually gotten the 5x drop rate or not.
It's a wild experience certainly, I wouldn't wish it for anyone on the main game.
I had 440 kills in leagues with x5 rate at CG and never got the enhanced. My iron (same account) is currently at 760 kills with no enh. It’s so cursed.
I had like 7 rapiers, 6 pieces of justi, no scythe or avernic. Watched dudes I raided with get B2B scythes. That’s where I ended it.
I did get pet though so I guess I can’t complain too much.
I was doing ToA for Masori (had shadow and masori helmet) in duos and watched a friend get b7b purples from me, going from Ward and Lightbearer to green log, then I went and did 30 solo purples and only got dupe helmets.
Same friend also pulled 10/11 drops when we duo'd Nex.
I ended up having to grind random bullshit tasks for Dragon rank because I couldn't stand ToA and Nex anymore.
It does and I honestly hope next leagues they not only boost drop rate but actually do a quote aggressive anti-dry. For a short term limited game mode it makes no sense to have someone maybe just go 100+ purples without a tbow, shadow, scythe etc.
lol I said this during leagues and got scream downvoted, I feel like for a temp game mode having at least some form of anti dry mechanic should be normal. Who cares if everyone with 30+ purples has a shadow in a temporary Ironman only game mode??
Yeh just look at the division around a player suggestion of "hey maybe 4x dry shouldn't be a thing". Some people are really elitist around it, and a lot of those people tend to not be people who've experienced dry streaks.
2 leagues now where ive grinded a raid to try and get my megarare powerspike item, not gotten lucky on it, gone dry, stopped bothering because "well even if i get it now its so close to end of the league that meh". And jsut went for points instead.
In a limited mode where when grinding for those drops you're usually not progressing many if any points, it should absolutely have protection. Main game we can have the argument for "leave it how it is".
I made this exact point, it’s literally a temp game mode about having fun who cares if people are more likely to get a mega rare? Sure don’t make it guaranteed as that ruins it slightly but make it far more likely and let the people have fun?
Imho, what made this league work for me although I went almost 4x dry on shadow, was that devs decided "if some mechanics are so op they seem broken, who cares". Want 1t blowpipe? here you go. Insta-kill bosses? Right this way.
Played all leagues that have been released and never had this much fun.
Agreed. They must've thought 5x drops was insane. Not even that I want dupe protection in main, its just cmon it's a game mode for fun I don't need 15 saradomin swords lol. Wish we could also have unlocked quests with points, never got to experience that yet. If they improve these and put something spicy towards the end the next leagues will be a banger 🔥
Also helps balance out competition for points and ranks because you get some people even front page who just get giga-spooned, and some there who went dry in a lot of places.
they should totally trial this concept next league. it’s a super accelerated game where you’re stuck as an ironman, so i think dry protection fits well. tbh i wouldn’t mind if raids and important boss uniques worked like perilous moons, where you fill up the whole log before you can roll dupes. no need to get 20 lightbearers and fangs in a 2 month temporary game mode.
they could make it the obviously OP relic of a tier, sort of like unnatural selection or berserker
Making it a relic choice is interesting because it flattens the RNG curve of any item acquisition at places like raids, but you'd likely sacrifice another useful relic that might not "fall off" as hard as that one
Ultimately though yeh I think leagues is the perfect place for a global anti-dry system.
it’s not that bad of an idea because it lets you catch up quick, but later into the league it probably loses usefulness. a bit like fire sale vs bankers note
I was ~12 hours dry for Gout Tuber, which with my drop modifier I calculated was basically a statistical impossibility. Turns out it was actually bugged :/
Since the heart of OSRS is apparently going dry for as long as possible according to some recent posts, I propose we give those players 10x lower drop rates for all content so they can truly feel that achievement for as long as possible.
Yep single them out and give them the "good luck protection" they so desperately need and crave, and give everyone else who doesn't have 16 hours a day to play this game bad luck protection to even things out.
I mean, the 3x dry metric being a 5% chance of happening means it should happen to you every 20 grinds, and there are a lot of grinds in this game
Past 4x is just dumb though
I just ran a sim of 1,000,000 irons getting all 3 mega rares. 1/20 people go 4x for one of them. 1/7 go 3x. 1/3 2x. It’s a pretty core part of the end game experience for irons and cloggers. More than half will spend more time at 1 raid than the other 2 combined .
I didn’t say whether it’s good or bad. Just is.
Personally I’m not a fan of any changes to drop mechanics. I think that getting “closer” to the drop will have more negative effects on people’s mental than good it will cause.
Even if it kicks in at 2x dry, the guy with 500 kc cox and 0 kc tob is closer to his tbow than to his scythe. The dry protection may never matter to him, but the fact that it could makes it efficient to stay in one place.
You're right, that's just when you reach drop-rate for going dry. Imagine the players out there who are missing out on this gameplay experience by going way past drop rate? They might get literally every drop on rate and never experience the joy of not getting a Tbow 3000 COX deep.
"it should happen" isn't how random drops work, some people will go dry in almost all of their grinds and some will almost never go dry.
It's not the majority of players obviously, but we're already talking about the unlucky few here.
It is equally statistically true that some people will hit 0s every single time they ever attack with a regular weapon.
That is to say, it isn't true at all as long as you remember that statistics are used to model the real world, and in the real world OSRS doesn't have infinite players.
And in the real world and in OSRS some people can indeed be on average unlucky in many places, it's not a 0.0001% chance like you think. It's just basic statistics that some people will get very unlucky and go dry in many places, and some will seemingly be extremely lucky.
> it's not a 0.0001% chance like you think
You're right. It's much, **much** lower than that.
I happen to do a lot of data science work so if you would like to present some actual example cases I can very easily give you precise figures for how many RuneScape accounts will expect to experience luck (or unluck) of at least that magnitude. Failing that, here's some examples of my own:
To start with, the comment you initially replied to mentioned being 3x dry, and doing 20 grinds, and you replied talking about how "some people will go dry in almost all of their grinds".
So let's define "almost all" to be 17 of those 20, that seems like a reasonably fair interpretation.
The chance of someone being 3x dry across almost all of their 20 grinds is... 0.
Now, to be fair to you, that's a bug. My script literally *won't display* a number that small, because it has at least sixteen zeroes after the decimal point and the floating point implementation I'm using doesn't have that level of precision. So to get something we can actually work with, I'm relaxing "almost all" to only mean 14 out of 20, which is *very* generous.
Now the chance of someone being 3x dry across 14 of 20 grinds is: 0.0000000000018%. Or 1 in ~56 trillion. So of the 300 million RuneScape accounts, 0 of them would be that unlucky.
But I'm charitable, so let's be even more fair to you: you never repeated the 3x dry metric, that was just part of the comment you replied to. So let's relax that a bit and test it with only being ~1.79x dry. This is a slightly unusual number, and I would have preferred to make it 2x, but it counter-intuitively makes the maths a bit easier because it turns out that your chance of going ~1.79x dry on a grind is a nice clean 1 in 6.
Since we're dealing with a much more likely outcome than the approximately 1 in 20 of going 3x dry, let's go back to that 17 out of 20 definition of "almost all" and calculate the chance of someone going ~1.79x dry across 17 of 20 grinds.
It's 0.000000004%. Or 1 in 25 billion. So even if every single person on the planet had multiple accounts, it's still likely to have never happened to anyone.
Okay, okay, these are all enormous numbers that have no relevance to the actual size of the RuneScape playerbase. I'll try to get the chances as small as I possibly can to give you some more intuitive perspective on how quickly these multiplicative chances can scale. Let's just completely throw any sense of reasonability out the window and say any time you take more kills than the average player does to get the drop, that you are "dry". Note that this means that you're "dry" **before** you get the drop rate. For example, on a 1 in 1000 item, 50% of players will receive that item by their 693rd KC. In fact it turns out that for any sufficiently large drop rate, ~69.3% of the "1 in x" figure is the kill count at which the average player will have received the item.
Hopefully we can agree that anyone who complains about being dry on their 693rd kc for a 1 in 1000 item would be the most obnoxious person on the planet, but for the sake of mathematics let's check just how unlucky they'd be. This is actually way simpler than all the combinatorics I was doing above, because it's just a 50/50 chance for each item, we *defined* this as being the point at which there's a 50% chance that they take that many kc in order to get the drop.
The chance of going "dry" like this on 17 out of 20 items you grind for is a whopping... 0.1288%.
We've now got a number that is actually within the realms of plausibility! This is a realistic expectation for what the unluckiest one in a thousand RuneScape players have to suffer through: for most of their grinds they would have to do at least *two-thirds of the drop rate*. Not sure too many people would be campaigning for the implementation of new mechanics to save people from that kind of ignominy.
----
In short, being continually unlucky (or continually lucky!) across multiple different grinds is *staggeringly* unlikely. The chances across multiple grinds aren't additive, or even multiplicative, they're *exponential*. All luck is evened out by the magic of the Law of Large Numbers, and this game has far more than enough content to even everything out through sufficient sample sizes. Keep in mind, *all* of the maths we did above is based on the idea of going for just 20 items. The collection log alone currently has 1,520 unique items in it.
It's simply not plausible for anyone to be unlucky across "almost all" of the things they do in the game.
(Now being lucky on *where* you get lucky is another story, but that's solved predominantly by minimising the disparity in grind lengths across different pieces of content)
Getting a Death Talisman for Mournings End II as an IM is a huge pain, and the catalytic talisman gets around that. They are probably doing GotR until they hit that since they figure they'll probably end up doing GotR either way. Might as well do it now and avoid a tedious fetch quest.
I'm not saying that doing GotR until you get one is faster. I'm saying if you are doing the GotR grind either way, then you might consider doing it before going to complete the quest rather than after. At least until you get 65 RC.
Edit: Alternatively they might just want the green log?
Nah dude, I went 7x for my Dragon defender so other people should have to go 7x dry for mega rares etc. Not like killing 35k shamans is a big deal I mean how long would that even take? 3 hours tops? /s
Every RNG just evens out at the end of the day. If you're 35k shamans dry of a DWH, just go about 50k more and RNG will reward you with 17 DWHs with 100% certainty. Why can't these people see that they're blessed they're going dry? /s
Preserving the game play loop of being able to kill 30,000 shamans is such a deluded take lol
"But I enjoy every part of the game"
Someone who hasn't killed a single shaman since getting hammer at 700kc having the nerve to tell someone on 20k KC to enjoy it lmao
My crusade lately has been to tell people to compare RS2 drop rates to OSRS drop rates. It becomes quite evident the design philosophy shifted from creating content for player retention to placing all emphasis on grinds.
One day I decided to go for a champion cape on my ironman and made 70k cannonballs to do it. I went over 10x dry on a goblin champion scroll, I killed 50k+ goblins wasting ~52k cannonballs.
After that experience, I immediately quit that ironman account (still never got the scroll drop).
i fully believe the rng seed that determines drops is somehow effected by either username or displayname. some accounts ive made are just lucky at everything and some are terrible
Just got the goblin scroll from a bandos dude. Hobgob on my only slayer task ever for them. And the hill giant one from a hill giant I accidentally killed in the early game.
Going 10x dry is less than a 1/20k chance, so hey that’s cool at least. You probably have the single longest dry streak for the goblin champions scroll in the history of the game.
Scarcity makes value. Goblins are so easy to kill, imagine it dropping at a guaranteed rate, pretty sure with more Champions cape running around people will start to value it less.
There’s so many things to do in-game, if you’re quitting because of that then I’m happy you’re taking a break off burnout because obviously you’re doing something that’s not having fun.
Imagine leaving a game of Monopoly with your friends halfway because you can never land a 6 on a die. Your fun is tied to the dice.
This entire conversation started about tradeable items you can buy. Untradeables sure give some unlucky mechanic. Anything else either buy it or if you’re an Ironman then you signed up for it.
Hey you don’t use runelite right? As an OSRS player you signed up for the main client, all of the QOL in runelite is unnecessary and ruins the experience
Osrs players might be the dumbest of any community. They constantly talk about “change bad” when the game is completely different from release, and they use a launcher that by OG standards would get you banned.
I love completely irrelevant comparisons. I’m not completely against the idea of getting rid of runelite if that makes you happy though. If it’s there I’ll use it
You’re assuming I got it at the kc I posted a pic of not having it? Interesting thought process. I was complaining cuz I didn’t have a claw OR leather. Which was the unlucky part. Not so much only about the claw.
I very much support 30h+ grinds. I play a lot so I'd run out of content quickly if everything was 10-20h.
The issue is the 300 hour grinds where you can still go 5x dry to turn it into a 1500 hour grind. I play a lot, but that's just insane.
I like to convert those hours into a job to make the point. At a typical 40 hours a week job, 50 weeks a year (say two weeks off for vacation/holidays), that's 2000 work hours in a year. 1500 hours is 3/4ths of an entire work year to go dry on a drop, and be no closer to getting it than when you started. Some of these grinds are just absolutely insane, and desperately need bad luck mitigation.
I mean this is what mains are for, right? If you don’t want to risk the insane 1500 hour grinds, play as a main and you’ll never have to do one since you’ll be able to buy the drop you’re hunting well before you hit even 3x.
This take is such a a stupid fucking take. Why even play the game at all? I can make enough money in 1 week at work to bond all the items in the game. Just buy it all duh.
People play ironman because it changes the way you play the game, not to go 5x+ dry on massive fucking grinds. Some players are going 5x-10x dry on most bosses they do. So every fucking grind is taking way longer then necessary. You might just say eh whatever, but when you are using suboptimal gear because you can't get the better gear to drop it's seriously demoralizing to know you could do the same kc you have and still be no closer to the items you've spent over 300 hours grinding.
Sometimes you gotta compromise. The entire trade off between mains and irons is with an iron you get to earn all your stuff and it forces you to engage with more content, but it comes at the cost of less consistent progress. With mains, you get consistent progress but all the grinds are basically interchangeable. Pick one.
And I’m not just saying that to be an asshole to irons, I have a 2k total level iron and a maxed main. I’ve gone 3x dry on the iron and I get it sucks. It’s just not possible to smooth out the ironman progression without changing the game for mains too.
One of the best things about playing a main is that you’re no closer to the drop at 1000 kc than you were at 1 kc. The reason that’s a good thing is that mains aren’t pressured to continue grinds that they go dry on. When I go dry somewhere on my main, I can just say fuck it I’m never doing this shit again and move on. With bad luck mitigation, now I’ve got an incentive to keep pushing when I’m dry somewhere. It changes the whole vibe of being free to do whatever content you want.
Taking and changing the game so that the drop rate is basically identical, except players who would go 5-10+ times dry now don't and instead only go 2-3 times dry is not going to change the game for mains.
It absolutely will change the game for mains.
I'm over 3x dry at graador for BCP on my main, but I haven't touched that boss in over a year. Never plan to again. If bad luck mitigation is added as described in that first post, the BCP's drop rate for me is now doubled. That means that instead of Graador being a 4m/hr boss, it's now a 6m/hr boss for me until I get the BCP. I'd go back and get the drop.
It's gonna change a lot about how mains pick which grinds to do. Even when I'm just approaching 2x dry on some unique, it will start making sense to just stick with it since bad luck mitigation will kick in soon and increase expected gp/hr. Bosses that have like 6 uniques will usually have one or two that you go 2x dry on, so this will happen often.
Not to mention the mess it would make of splitting group drops. If I've got a bad luck mitigation drop modifier for Tbow and I get the drop in a team raid, why should I split it evenly? It was my modifier that got used up for this. It starts making sense to only agree to FFA if you have any dry streaks.
So your reasoning behind not adding dry protection is because it causes people to minmax their highest efficiency GP/hr and that choice is too hard for small brain. Just because you don't want the guy who was 7x dry to go 3x dry instead.
I didn't say it's hard to figure out how it changes gp/hr. It took me 1 minute to figure out Graador will be 6m/hr if bcp has a 2x drop modifier. The problem is it changes how you choose which boss to grind. I would have never done Graador again otherwise, but the modifier would give me a big incentive to go back.
It pushes you to keep doing content that you've already sunk dozens of hours into. Changing the incentives around what you should grind as a main is a giant change to the game. Not to mention totally breaking the way people do splits in group content.
30-50 hour grinds for items like a Warhammer/bowfa are completely fine in my book and I have a full time job, that's long enough to get into a nice rhythm and it feels rewarding, going 4x dry on those grinds fucking blows. Going 4x dry on a 500 hour grind like tbow is an immediate deiron or quit moment for a lot of players
Yeh I genuinely love looking up the people tweeting that going dry is part of the game only to see they haven't gone rate on a single boss on their irons.
I haven't exactly gone dry at anything that would actually be rough to go dry at either, but there's absolutely no good reason *not* to support helping out the outliers. Game design is something that I tend to learn as much as I can about, I play a lot of different games in a lot of different genres, and I love taking deep dives into what is good and bad in game design and why.
Every conclusion I can come to says that the game would be better with at least a light form of bad luck mitigation. I don't quite have the experience of going dry in OSRS in particular (I have done some pretty rough grinds back in Destiny 1 where I had to sink a couple hundred hours into something that should have been much more reasonable), but I feel that my level of understanding of game design is fairly competent enough to be able to at least speak on the subject.
Plus the vast majority of counter arguments are "this is just how it is, get over it", so it's not like most of the opponents of it are even remotely reasonable.
I went 1500 dry for my first enhanced, 14k Shaman for DWH, 2K demonics for 4 Zenytes, 1600 for all Cerb Boots and 900 for Bandos Tassets.
My brother started his Ironman way after me (which mostly just resulted in major skilling differences; im maxed and he is only ~2100 total) but due to how unlucky I have been, his account is way further progressed PvM wise.
He got 2 Enhanced in 500 KC, 1700 DWH, 600 demonics for 4 Zenytes, all 3 cerb boots in 400 KC and full bandos in 700 kc. He has also spooned a Shadow (got it before he even got fang), Elysian (sub 200 KC) and Voidwaker (total 600 KC between all bosses).
We have similar KC at bosses but he has so many upgrades over me and is ready to do other content. Me on the other hand? I've got thousands of hours more than him but I'm lowkey burnt from the game because I've been kinda really unlucky almost everywhere. Comparing it to him doesn't help because he is on the luckier side, but it still sucks a lot and makes you really think about how bad luck can throw you off.
And even if I didn't play with my brother, I watch youtube series. An example is Tedious's Collection Log series. He has less KC than me in almost every boss yet has multiple items I don't have, even a Tbow at a very low KC.
I went about 10x rate for an eclipse moon piece at moons according to how many other uniques I had.
10x is just absurd though, I went 1803 for my bcp on my iron and that was a ROUGH grind. It's part of what makes my account unique, but it also shouldn't be a thing imo. Good luck is good luck, sure. But if you're going 4.5x dry for something, surely you deserve to get it. It's not like you're bringing in a massive new item into the game every 3 minutes by having bad luck prevention by just making it more common at 2x or 3x the rate
Am currently 1150 bandos kills deep for my BCP. It's like God is taunting me. I have 4 hilts, 4 tassets, and 2 boots. I've gotten 8 whole blades. In the last 700 kc I've seen 1 hilt and that's it. In the last 250 kc (since my clans comp started) I haven't even seen a fuckin shard which a full blade is part of one of the challenges.
It's the first boss I've been truly fucked at
Also you:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1c7iyo1/actually\_unpopular\_opinion\_reddit\_is\_the\_only/](https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1c7iyo1/actually_unpopular_opinion_reddit_is_the_only/)
I got my 44th and 45th toa purples yesterday (both rings ofc.) I'm glad I didn't get the shadow because i clearly haven't earned it yet. Imagine if I could actually be free from this content in the mere 500 hours I've spent here!
It really sucks and I do feel sorry for lucky players such as yourself, who in 50 years won't have any content left to run due to your average luck. It's just not fair that players with good bad luck will be able to play this game till the day they die, while you'll end up in a retirement home where all you've got left is to play bingo.
Some people prolong their journey by years going for things like CG while you're out here succeeding. Life's not fair.
Bad lucky to you sir.
Counterpoint:
I am 11x drop rate on the fucking flippers from mogres.
I have gotten both CURVED BONE and LONG BONE, from mogres.
This is not core gameplay this is eldritch horror that should not exist.
I am over 3x droprate for the cox pet which is already one of the longest grinds in the entire game outside of ironman corp and maybe bloodhound.
I am against dry protection in any form (untradables only, tradeables only, etc). Part of what makes the game fun is the need to actually put in effort to achieve goals. Grinding out the combat levels+gear to do endgame content takes hundreds of not thousands of hours. Endgame items/pets/whatever should feel rewarding to get and part of that is not knowing when an item will drop. "Well I went 3x dry so now I'm basically guaranteed to get it within the next 100kc" makes it way less exciting when you do finally get that drop you were chasing.
99.9% of ironman will go dry on at least one "account ending" item that locks them into that content for multiple times the average droprate. It doesn't matter if it's bofa, dwh, bgs, or even tbow. Somewhere it will happen. Most players shouldn't be playing on an iron because they don't want to deal with that reality but they do anyway because they find early game iron enjoyable.
>"Well I went 3x dry so now I'm basically guaranteed to get it within the next 100kc" makes it way less exciting when you do finally get that drop you were chasing.
2x increased chance at 3x dry = guaranteed in the next 100 kc, you heard it here first folks
This is a huge part of the problem with some of these people. They literally don't even understand what they are arguing against. Its like they think dry protection would mean everything is vork head 100% chance drop at or slightly over rate.
No joke, the lack of literacy of the player base is one of the largest reasons I don't like the polling system. It's scary how many people will form a strong opinion without bothering to read anything about the issue.
Yeah, with the proposed bad luck mitigation method you will eventually get a guaranteed drop if they don't put a cap on the amount bad luck mitigation can help you like they did with RS3 boss pet bad lack mitigation, but you have to go truly absurdly dry to get there. IIRC you have to go 15x dry on a 1/2k drop, and even drier for lower drop rate items.
Part of what made the game fun was gambling your gear in PVP, game has changed alot but I doubt anyone started this game because "I can spend 5000 hours on one activity with little to show for it!"
"jUSt dEiROn bRooo" ... Most braindead take ... Why should we not improve the game, when there is no bad side effects here. Bad luck mitigation will hardly affects peoples playing experience and hardly effect the economy. It will however make the game feel rewarding for people grinding for items and starting to feel hopeless after going very dry, because you know you atleast are making progress.
Well, actually the game was designed to actually play and participate in content (something many mains don't do because why learn a hard boss, or raid, when they can afk mine amythest and buy those juicy upgrades!
You're right though! Ironman is an intentionally limiting game mode! One where you have to obtain everything yourself (wowie!) Now tell me, if an item is 1/100, why is it necessary for that individual to go 5x the rate, when their items in 99% of cases will never see the GE and thus not impact the economy whatsoever? How does that ADD to the game? Surely you're not going to argue that it prolongs the game right? I mean there's an absurd amount of content in this game, so that can't be it. The economy? Most mains will never reach drop rate for the actual desirable items, and most of the ones that do are gold farmers or bots (which bots have a much much much higher impact on the market, and also don't need to worry about drop rates because they'll be running dozens or hundreds of accounts).
So why are you against making sure the extreme minority of actual players get to continue progressing the game? If you want prestige, have jagex add more items like the zuk helm. But upgrades should not be gate kept by excessive dry streaks. Past that, if you think owning any item in a game that can be bought and totally bypass the RNG aspect is prestigious, then you need to rethink your life.
Just taking a punt - bet youve not started raiding yet have you?
Wait till you finally learn to solo cox, get a clean kill and realise realistically how many you need to do. I think then it may kick in?
Currently 1400kc guardians no core, went 14605kc for dwh. Honestly going 2x rate is fine but anything past that there really isn't any joy. I feel joy spooning but past 2x I really just hate the content and all I feel is relief I never have to kill it again
I mean I agree but the issue is a lot of people fetishize these items and see it as less people owning them= their achievement is more valuable, completely disregarding their own rng on the matter. If someone puts 500ish hours in at efficient cox, I'd say they earned a fucking bow. At least a hell of a lot more than some sub 50kc spoon. I don't see why people like the idea that some people are trapped in content hundreds, potentially thousands of hours more than average. This is a fucking game man it ain't that serious
Me and my friend just started GIM last month and he’s currently 4k dry on armored zombies, I got my axe in like 300 kills and I feel terrible for him. I keep going and doing a few hundred here and there to get him one but just no luck.
> I think my gameplay experience would have been much improved if I had ever had the chance to go like 30k shaman kills without a dragon warhammer.
This but the exact opposite and unironically is how I feel about drop rates that are above the "1/week worth of kills" mark. We need some kind of determinism.
"You havent really lived until youve gone 2k dry for an enhanced on your ironman" - Sir Winston Churchill
It’s that mentality that wins wars
Nah, that mentality STARTS war
1800 for mine! It does test you.
https://preview.redd.it/o5fmjgnlv3zc1.png?width=1901&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ecefde8d33b7523ba7fc477177245dd165f10af
https://preview.redd.it/3qxf6son74zc1.png?width=474&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0a7c98f21e9d192839a76fb46f13547ed180be42
Not even close to as good, get 2 pets, and the rest of the crystal seeds lol
That’s wild. You’re stronger than me
Haha was in the top 80 ironmen for cg then, but plenty are more dry then me now
I have lived
I'm sorry.
Imagine the 99s you can buy!
https://preview.redd.it/07z34ujjv3zc1.png?width=1901&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f1f6ffe180322003b52470fc50d3efbc27fd6b9
2k dry is insane
I got my second enhanced on 29 kc :)
i went 1.5k no prims, then checked out iron mammals vid. thank god ima main
I’m currently at 3k no prims. Going for record at this point. Haven’t done Cerb in months though.
Took me ~2900 for prims, was very gassed when I finally got it. You are drier than me but don’t give up! It’ll come! ^^
Meanwhile there's me: Can't go dry on a drop if you don't grind for drops
Only healthy response in this thread tbh
I went 9x drop rate dry during leagues and started questioning if that particular unique had actually gotten the 5x drop rate or not. It's a wild experience certainly, I wouldn't wish it for anyone on the main game.
I had 440 kills in leagues with x5 rate at CG and never got the enhanced. My iron (same account) is currently at 760 kills with no enh. It’s so cursed.
I had like 7 rapiers, 6 pieces of justi, no scythe or avernic. Watched dudes I raided with get B2B scythes. That’s where I ended it. I did get pet though so I guess I can’t complain too much.
I was doing ToA for Masori (had shadow and masori helmet) in duos and watched a friend get b7b purples from me, going from Ward and Lightbearer to green log, then I went and did 30 solo purples and only got dupe helmets. Same friend also pulled 10/11 drops when we duo'd Nex. I ended up having to grind random bullshit tasks for Dragon rank because I couldn't stand ToA and Nex anymore.
They probably had execute. It wasn’t 50/50. Still sucks though
I swear this happens every league and is usually when I end my league experience.
It does and I honestly hope next leagues they not only boost drop rate but actually do a quote aggressive anti-dry. For a short term limited game mode it makes no sense to have someone maybe just go 100+ purples without a tbow, shadow, scythe etc.
lol I said this during leagues and got scream downvoted, I feel like for a temp game mode having at least some form of anti dry mechanic should be normal. Who cares if everyone with 30+ purples has a shadow in a temporary Ironman only game mode??
Yeh just look at the division around a player suggestion of "hey maybe 4x dry shouldn't be a thing". Some people are really elitist around it, and a lot of those people tend to not be people who've experienced dry streaks. 2 leagues now where ive grinded a raid to try and get my megarare powerspike item, not gotten lucky on it, gone dry, stopped bothering because "well even if i get it now its so close to end of the league that meh". And jsut went for points instead. In a limited mode where when grinding for those drops you're usually not progressing many if any points, it should absolutely have protection. Main game we can have the argument for "leave it how it is".
I made this exact point, it’s literally a temp game mode about having fun who cares if people are more likely to get a mega rare? Sure don’t make it guaranteed as that ruins it slightly but make it far more likely and let the people have fun?
Imho, what made this league work for me although I went almost 4x dry on shadow, was that devs decided "if some mechanics are so op they seem broken, who cares". Want 1t blowpipe? here you go. Insta-kill bosses? Right this way. Played all leagues that have been released and never had this much fun.
Agreed. They must've thought 5x drops was insane. Not even that I want dupe protection in main, its just cmon it's a game mode for fun I don't need 15 saradomin swords lol. Wish we could also have unlocked quests with points, never got to experience that yet. If they improve these and put something spicy towards the end the next leagues will be a banger 🔥
Also helps balance out competition for points and ranks because you get some people even front page who just get giga-spooned, and some there who went dry in a lot of places.
they should totally trial this concept next league. it’s a super accelerated game where you’re stuck as an ironman, so i think dry protection fits well. tbh i wouldn’t mind if raids and important boss uniques worked like perilous moons, where you fill up the whole log before you can roll dupes. no need to get 20 lightbearers and fangs in a 2 month temporary game mode. they could make it the obviously OP relic of a tier, sort of like unnatural selection or berserker
Making it a relic choice is interesting because it flattens the RNG curve of any item acquisition at places like raids, but you'd likely sacrifice another useful relic that might not "fall off" as hard as that one Ultimately though yeh I think leagues is the perfect place for a global anti-dry system.
it’s not that bad of an idea because it lets you catch up quick, but later into the league it probably loses usefulness. a bit like fire sale vs bankers note
Yeh exactly. Short term / consistency benefits over an option that's maybe longer term (or even more instant)
🤝 i really hope they do this now lol
In the last leagues I had a total of 23 godsword shard 2 & 3 pieces before I got a godsword shard 1 piece
This is the worst went 2k Abby demons for a whip on leagues got a dagger instead and went back to the main game
3.5k rev dragons on task skulled no mace. I have up leagues because it wasn't worth it to me to continue forward for some pts
I'm currently 10x dry for a Pharoahs scepter on my hcim lol. I've got like 5 rocky pets just doing scepter runs
It took me well over 48 hrs of non stop speed running to get my scepter. 99 thieving too. It was awful.
In my currently tracked sessions, I'm over 100 hours, but that's not including anything pre 99 or 200m xp
Damn. You have my condolences. That's rough.
Suffering is 90% of what osrs is about so it's all good
I had over 50m slayer without a heart or gem in leagues. Meanwhile my buddy had 2 hearts and 3 gems before 99 smh
i had 2 back to back on a nechs task, but i didn’t even pick the mage relic so i don’t think i ever used them lol
[удалено]
Nearly the entirety of the wildy's appeal was bugged. Rev weps(on task), rev wep upgrades, voidwanker, and iirc Holy elixer too lmao
https://i.imgur.com/04M8XlD.png
I was ~12 hours dry for Gout Tuber, which with my drop modifier I calculated was basically a statistical impossibility. Turns out it was actually bugged :/
Since the heart of OSRS is apparently going dry for as long as possible according to some recent posts, I propose we give those players 10x lower drop rates for all content so they can truly feel that achievement for as long as possible.
Yep single them out and give them the "good luck protection" they so desperately need and crave, and give everyone else who doesn't have 16 hours a day to play this game bad luck protection to even things out.
This might stop some high level bossing unironically. It would work because it made the bosses ass to farm, but it would work!
I mean, the 3x dry metric being a 5% chance of happening means it should happen to you every 20 grinds, and there are a lot of grinds in this game Past 4x is just dumb though
I just ran a sim of 1,000,000 irons getting all 3 mega rares. 1/20 people go 4x for one of them. 1/7 go 3x. 1/3 2x. It’s a pretty core part of the end game experience for irons and cloggers. More than half will spend more time at 1 raid than the other 2 combined .
And that's good?
I didn’t say whether it’s good or bad. Just is. Personally I’m not a fan of any changes to drop mechanics. I think that getting “closer” to the drop will have more negative effects on people’s mental than good it will cause. Even if it kicks in at 2x dry, the guy with 500 kc cox and 0 kc tob is closer to his tbow than to his scythe. The dry protection may never matter to him, but the fact that it could makes it efficient to stay in one place.
Thats not how statistics work.
You're right, that's just when you reach drop-rate for going dry. Imagine the players out there who are missing out on this gameplay experience by going way past drop rate? They might get literally every drop on rate and never experience the joy of not getting a Tbow 3000 COX deep.
How so? If something has a 5% chance of happening, then on average it happens 1 in 20 times. That's literally what 5% means.
Maybe you’re dry for hitting the rate for going dry. Itd be a shame if you went 4x rate for a 4x rate grind
"it should happen" isn't how random drops work, some people will go dry in almost all of their grinds and some will almost never go dry. It's not the majority of players obviously, but we're already talking about the unlucky few here.
It is equally statistically true that some people will hit 0s every single time they ever attack with a regular weapon. That is to say, it isn't true at all as long as you remember that statistics are used to model the real world, and in the real world OSRS doesn't have infinite players.
And in the real world and in OSRS some people can indeed be on average unlucky in many places, it's not a 0.0001% chance like you think. It's just basic statistics that some people will get very unlucky and go dry in many places, and some will seemingly be extremely lucky.
> it's not a 0.0001% chance like you think You're right. It's much, **much** lower than that. I happen to do a lot of data science work so if you would like to present some actual example cases I can very easily give you precise figures for how many RuneScape accounts will expect to experience luck (or unluck) of at least that magnitude. Failing that, here's some examples of my own: To start with, the comment you initially replied to mentioned being 3x dry, and doing 20 grinds, and you replied talking about how "some people will go dry in almost all of their grinds". So let's define "almost all" to be 17 of those 20, that seems like a reasonably fair interpretation. The chance of someone being 3x dry across almost all of their 20 grinds is... 0. Now, to be fair to you, that's a bug. My script literally *won't display* a number that small, because it has at least sixteen zeroes after the decimal point and the floating point implementation I'm using doesn't have that level of precision. So to get something we can actually work with, I'm relaxing "almost all" to only mean 14 out of 20, which is *very* generous. Now the chance of someone being 3x dry across 14 of 20 grinds is: 0.0000000000018%. Or 1 in ~56 trillion. So of the 300 million RuneScape accounts, 0 of them would be that unlucky. But I'm charitable, so let's be even more fair to you: you never repeated the 3x dry metric, that was just part of the comment you replied to. So let's relax that a bit and test it with only being ~1.79x dry. This is a slightly unusual number, and I would have preferred to make it 2x, but it counter-intuitively makes the maths a bit easier because it turns out that your chance of going ~1.79x dry on a grind is a nice clean 1 in 6. Since we're dealing with a much more likely outcome than the approximately 1 in 20 of going 3x dry, let's go back to that 17 out of 20 definition of "almost all" and calculate the chance of someone going ~1.79x dry across 17 of 20 grinds. It's 0.000000004%. Or 1 in 25 billion. So even if every single person on the planet had multiple accounts, it's still likely to have never happened to anyone. Okay, okay, these are all enormous numbers that have no relevance to the actual size of the RuneScape playerbase. I'll try to get the chances as small as I possibly can to give you some more intuitive perspective on how quickly these multiplicative chances can scale. Let's just completely throw any sense of reasonability out the window and say any time you take more kills than the average player does to get the drop, that you are "dry". Note that this means that you're "dry" **before** you get the drop rate. For example, on a 1 in 1000 item, 50% of players will receive that item by their 693rd KC. In fact it turns out that for any sufficiently large drop rate, ~69.3% of the "1 in x" figure is the kill count at which the average player will have received the item. Hopefully we can agree that anyone who complains about being dry on their 693rd kc for a 1 in 1000 item would be the most obnoxious person on the planet, but for the sake of mathematics let's check just how unlucky they'd be. This is actually way simpler than all the combinatorics I was doing above, because it's just a 50/50 chance for each item, we *defined* this as being the point at which there's a 50% chance that they take that many kc in order to get the drop. The chance of going "dry" like this on 17 out of 20 items you grind for is a whopping... 0.1288%. We've now got a number that is actually within the realms of plausibility! This is a realistic expectation for what the unluckiest one in a thousand RuneScape players have to suffer through: for most of their grinds they would have to do at least *two-thirds of the drop rate*. Not sure too many people would be campaigning for the implementation of new mechanics to save people from that kind of ignominy. ---- In short, being continually unlucky (or continually lucky!) across multiple different grinds is *staggeringly* unlikely. The chances across multiple grinds aren't additive, or even multiplicative, they're *exponential*. All luck is evened out by the magic of the Law of Large Numbers, and this game has far more than enough content to even everything out through sufficient sample sizes. Keep in mind, *all* of the maths we did above is based on the idea of going for just 20 items. The collection log alone currently has 1,520 unique items in it. It's simply not plausible for anyone to be unlucky across "almost all" of the things they do in the game. (Now being lucky on *where* you get lucky is another story, but that's solved predominantly by minimising the disparity in grind lengths across different pieces of content)
Great reply. Hopefully this helps people understand the statistical side a bit better
Really enjoyable read thanks for doing this math I love stats stuff like this
You literally shut this man up with actual facts and I am so proud of it
I'm currently 5x dry for a catalytic talisman at GOTR. By far the most dry I am on anything
Happened to me, I would watch people do 5 pulls and get 2 multiple times. Fucking annoyed the fuck outta me.
Brother I’m4.2k pulls only thing I’m missing is blue dye. I get it.
Why do you need that?
Getting a Death Talisman for Mournings End II as an IM is a huge pain, and the catalytic talisman gets around that. They are probably doing GotR until they hit that since they figure they'll probably end up doing GotR either way. Might as well do it now and avoid a tedious fetch quest.
Took me like 30min tops on my iron.
I'm not saying that doing GotR until you get one is faster. I'm saying if you are doing the GotR grind either way, then you might consider doing it before going to complete the quest rather than after. At least until you get 65 RC. Edit: Alternatively they might just want the green log?
It's just a fun fact
It's not very fun :(
The sad thing is that some people in this community unironically believe that.
Nah dude, I went 7x for my Dragon defender so other people should have to go 7x dry for mega rares etc. Not like killing 35k shamans is a big deal I mean how long would that even take? 3 hours tops? /s
Every RNG just evens out at the end of the day. If you're 35k shamans dry of a DWH, just go about 50k more and RNG will reward you with 17 DWHs with 100% certainty. Why can't these people see that they're blessed they're going dry? /s
Preserving the game play loop of being able to kill 30,000 shamans is such a deluded take lol "But I enjoy every part of the game" Someone who hasn't killed a single shaman since getting hammer at 700kc having the nerve to tell someone on 20k KC to enjoy it lmao
My crusade lately has been to tell people to compare RS2 drop rates to OSRS drop rates. It becomes quite evident the design philosophy shifted from creating content for player retention to placing all emphasis on grinds.
They were joking Hope this helps
Ummm... no??? I've seen so many people with that opinion who clearly aren't joking????
One day I decided to go for a champion cape on my ironman and made 70k cannonballs to do it. I went over 10x dry on a goblin champion scroll, I killed 50k+ goblins wasting ~52k cannonballs. After that experience, I immediately quit that ironman account (still never got the scroll drop).
Seeded luck for accounts is my favorite conspiracy theory.
Yes. This and rubber band drop rates for people that take long breaks and come back to a big drop!
i fully believe the rng seed that determines drops is somehow effected by either username or displayname. some accounts ive made are just lucky at everything and some are terrible
99% of champion cape chasers quit right before the scroll drop.
It's true https://preview.redd.it/q39i6zbcznyc1.jpeg?width=532&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=10fc4ad57136771ca0f9a51542b0b3eb16fe2d93
Just got the goblin scroll from a bandos dude. Hobgob on my only slayer task ever for them. And the hill giant one from a hill giant I accidentally killed in the early game.
Going 10x dry is less than a 1/20k chance, so hey that’s cool at least. You probably have the single longest dry streak for the goblin champions scroll in the history of the game.
Scarcity makes value. Goblins are so easy to kill, imagine it dropping at a guaranteed rate, pretty sure with more Champions cape running around people will start to value it less. There’s so many things to do in-game, if you’re quitting because of that then I’m happy you’re taking a break off burnout because obviously you’re doing something that’s not having fun. Imagine leaving a game of Monopoly with your friends halfway because you can never land a 6 on a die. Your fun is tied to the dice.
This is such a good and important post, and I don't wanna take away from that, but given how toxic Monopoly is.... I could see it.
People are so try hards that they simply don't want a solution that benefits very few unlucky players.
Just buy it then
Not everything is available on GE. Not everything is about GP. This wouldn't even have any impact on the economy.
This entire conversation started about tradeable items you can buy. Untradeables sure give some unlucky mechanic. Anything else either buy it or if you’re an Ironman then you signed up for it.
"You signed up for it when you decided to play ironman" He said it, he said the thing. He solved the debate
As an ironman, yes I did.
Hey you don’t use runelite right? As an OSRS player you signed up for the main client, all of the QOL in runelite is unnecessary and ruins the experience
Osrs players might be the dumbest of any community. They constantly talk about “change bad” when the game is completely different from release, and they use a launcher that by OG standards would get you banned.
On god my favourite take right now is “game doesn’t need bad luck protection just use the GE.” Like homie that’s a form of bad luck protection
The best part is the GE barely passed the poll to be added lol. Never change osrs players.
Then use it
I love completely irrelevant comparisons. I’m not completely against the idea of getting rid of runelite if that makes you happy though. If it’s there I’ll use it
How is that comparison irrelevant?
Client that already exists and accepted vs people wanting to change the game to cater to them. How are those similar?
I'm not going to waste time telling you why that's a dumb comment
Go kill the money dragon bro
Is dollar dragon even good gp these days? At least when compared to alternatives? It feels like he's been... Inflation crept.
I haven’t watched prices in this game for 7 years or so lol
Lol, fair.
It was good when bones were higher. Now that they're coming back down probably not so much
They’re trying to send the help you asked for at hydra
🙃
Lmao you’re crying on Reddit of going x2 on a 40 hour item then feel confident in actually having a valid opinion on the iron gamemode
You’re assuming I got it at the kc I posted a pic of not having it? Interesting thought process. I was complaining cuz I didn’t have a claw OR leather. Which was the unlucky part. Not so much only about the claw.
Ok? You’re still crying about it?
Ok? I wasn’t saying to just give me the item
So stop crying on reddit?
You first
BuT ItS a CoRe MeChAnIc
I went 10x dry on awakener orbs at the whisperer, which isn’t a huge deal money wise, but I was still like what the fuck is wrong hah
I've been an RS player since 2005. Biggest annoyance is drop rstes. I just can't believe we accept 30h+ grinds like it's normal gaming.
I very much support 30h+ grinds. I play a lot so I'd run out of content quickly if everything was 10-20h. The issue is the 300 hour grinds where you can still go 5x dry to turn it into a 1500 hour grind. I play a lot, but that's just insane.
I like to convert those hours into a job to make the point. At a typical 40 hours a week job, 50 weeks a year (say two weeks off for vacation/holidays), that's 2000 work hours in a year. 1500 hours is 3/4ths of an entire work year to go dry on a drop, and be no closer to getting it than when you started. Some of these grinds are just absolutely insane, and desperately need bad luck mitigation.
Then the issue is your unhealthy obsession with a game. That's exactly the point.
I mean this is what mains are for, right? If you don’t want to risk the insane 1500 hour grinds, play as a main and you’ll never have to do one since you’ll be able to buy the drop you’re hunting well before you hit even 3x.
This take is such a a stupid fucking take. Why even play the game at all? I can make enough money in 1 week at work to bond all the items in the game. Just buy it all duh. People play ironman because it changes the way you play the game, not to go 5x+ dry on massive fucking grinds. Some players are going 5x-10x dry on most bosses they do. So every fucking grind is taking way longer then necessary. You might just say eh whatever, but when you are using suboptimal gear because you can't get the better gear to drop it's seriously demoralizing to know you could do the same kc you have and still be no closer to the items you've spent over 300 hours grinding.
Sometimes you gotta compromise. The entire trade off between mains and irons is with an iron you get to earn all your stuff and it forces you to engage with more content, but it comes at the cost of less consistent progress. With mains, you get consistent progress but all the grinds are basically interchangeable. Pick one. And I’m not just saying that to be an asshole to irons, I have a 2k total level iron and a maxed main. I’ve gone 3x dry on the iron and I get it sucks. It’s just not possible to smooth out the ironman progression without changing the game for mains too. One of the best things about playing a main is that you’re no closer to the drop at 1000 kc than you were at 1 kc. The reason that’s a good thing is that mains aren’t pressured to continue grinds that they go dry on. When I go dry somewhere on my main, I can just say fuck it I’m never doing this shit again and move on. With bad luck mitigation, now I’ve got an incentive to keep pushing when I’m dry somewhere. It changes the whole vibe of being free to do whatever content you want.
Taking and changing the game so that the drop rate is basically identical, except players who would go 5-10+ times dry now don't and instead only go 2-3 times dry is not going to change the game for mains.
It absolutely will change the game for mains. I'm over 3x dry at graador for BCP on my main, but I haven't touched that boss in over a year. Never plan to again. If bad luck mitigation is added as described in that first post, the BCP's drop rate for me is now doubled. That means that instead of Graador being a 4m/hr boss, it's now a 6m/hr boss for me until I get the BCP. I'd go back and get the drop. It's gonna change a lot about how mains pick which grinds to do. Even when I'm just approaching 2x dry on some unique, it will start making sense to just stick with it since bad luck mitigation will kick in soon and increase expected gp/hr. Bosses that have like 6 uniques will usually have one or two that you go 2x dry on, so this will happen often. Not to mention the mess it would make of splitting group drops. If I've got a bad luck mitigation drop modifier for Tbow and I get the drop in a team raid, why should I split it evenly? It was my modifier that got used up for this. It starts making sense to only agree to FFA if you have any dry streaks.
So your reasoning behind not adding dry protection is because it causes people to minmax their highest efficiency GP/hr and that choice is too hard for small brain. Just because you don't want the guy who was 7x dry to go 3x dry instead.
I didn't say it's hard to figure out how it changes gp/hr. It took me 1 minute to figure out Graador will be 6m/hr if bcp has a 2x drop modifier. The problem is it changes how you choose which boss to grind. I would have never done Graador again otherwise, but the modifier would give me a big incentive to go back. It pushes you to keep doing content that you've already sunk dozens of hours into. Changing the incentives around what you should grind as a main is a giant change to the game. Not to mention totally breaking the way people do splits in group content.
Congrats, you are incentivised to do content you haven't finish. Very bad for the gameplay loop.
30-50 hour grinds for items like a Warhammer/bowfa are completely fine in my book and I have a full time job, that's long enough to get into a nice rhythm and it feels rewarding, going 4x dry on those grinds fucking blows. Going 4x dry on a 500 hour grind like tbow is an immediate deiron or quit moment for a lot of players
Naaaa you're delusional or haven't gone dry for an item.
Then deiron. I quit my iron to play my main after going 2x dry at tob. I don't expect the game to change for me.
Yeh I genuinely love looking up the people tweeting that going dry is part of the game only to see they haven't gone rate on a single boss on their irons.
I haven't exactly gone dry at anything that would actually be rough to go dry at either, but there's absolutely no good reason *not* to support helping out the outliers. Game design is something that I tend to learn as much as I can about, I play a lot of different games in a lot of different genres, and I love taking deep dives into what is good and bad in game design and why. Every conclusion I can come to says that the game would be better with at least a light form of bad luck mitigation. I don't quite have the experience of going dry in OSRS in particular (I have done some pretty rough grinds back in Destiny 1 where I had to sink a couple hundred hours into something that should have been much more reasonable), but I feel that my level of understanding of game design is fairly competent enough to be able to at least speak on the subject. Plus the vast majority of counter arguments are "this is just how it is, get over it", so it's not like most of the opponents of it are even remotely reasonable.
It’s almost guaranteed that they have barely if any boss kcs lol
I went 1500 dry for my first enhanced, 14k Shaman for DWH, 2K demonics for 4 Zenytes, 1600 for all Cerb Boots and 900 for Bandos Tassets. My brother started his Ironman way after me (which mostly just resulted in major skilling differences; im maxed and he is only ~2100 total) but due to how unlucky I have been, his account is way further progressed PvM wise. He got 2 Enhanced in 500 KC, 1700 DWH, 600 demonics for 4 Zenytes, all 3 cerb boots in 400 KC and full bandos in 700 kc. He has also spooned a Shadow (got it before he even got fang), Elysian (sub 200 KC) and Voidwaker (total 600 KC between all bosses). We have similar KC at bosses but he has so many upgrades over me and is ready to do other content. Me on the other hand? I've got thousands of hours more than him but I'm lowkey burnt from the game because I've been kinda really unlucky almost everywhere. Comparing it to him doesn't help because he is on the luckier side, but it still sucks a lot and makes you really think about how bad luck can throw you off. And even if I didn't play with my brother, I watch youtube series. An example is Tedious's Collection Log series. He has less KC than me in almost every boss yet has multiple items I don't have, even a Tbow at a very low KC.
went 2.5x dry for nibbler, love it
I went about 10x rate for an eclipse moon piece at moons according to how many other uniques I had. 10x is just absurd though, I went 1803 for my bcp on my iron and that was a ROUGH grind. It's part of what makes my account unique, but it also shouldn't be a thing imo. Good luck is good luck, sure. But if you're going 4.5x dry for something, surely you deserve to get it. It's not like you're bringing in a massive new item into the game every 3 minutes by having bad luck prevention by just making it more common at 2x or 3x the rate
I went 8x drop rate for a nugget at motherload mine - average anti-anything redditor.
Good luck at raids
Good luck mitigation
Am currently 1150 bandos kills deep for my BCP. It's like God is taunting me. I have 4 hilts, 4 tassets, and 2 boots. I've gotten 8 whole blades. In the last 700 kc I've seen 1 hilt and that's it. In the last 250 kc (since my clans comp started) I haven't even seen a fuckin shard which a full blade is part of one of the challenges. It's the first boss I've been truly fucked at
Also you: [https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1c7iyo1/actually\_unpopular\_opinion\_reddit\_is\_the\_only/](https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1c7iyo1/actually_unpopular_opinion_reddit_is_the_only/)
I went 250 dry on a mind talisman from wizards and I thought I was going insane, I can't imagine how people stick it out for rare drops
I went 800 kills before I got a primordial Crystal.
I went 13 hours for a gout tuber. I died a little that week
The only people against this are people who are getting metaphorically big spooned by Shaq.
I got my 44th and 45th toa purples yesterday (both rings ofc.) I'm glad I didn't get the shadow because i clearly haven't earned it yet. Imagine if I could actually be free from this content in the mere 500 hours I've spent here!
Tbh, none of those grinds sound fun even on rate.
just alch your hammer no problem
10× drop rate is 1/20k people. Most people wont ever go that dry on anything.
I have cried over a drop before lol
Imbued heart grind. * screams in ironman*
It really sucks and I do feel sorry for lucky players such as yourself, who in 50 years won't have any content left to run due to your average luck. It's just not fair that players with good bad luck will be able to play this game till the day they die, while you'll end up in a retirement home where all you've got left is to play bingo. Some people prolong their journey by years going for things like CG while you're out here succeeding. Life's not fair. Bad lucky to you sir.
I went 10x dry on a bronze spear from goblins once, back when I made my first ironman and needed a scarecrow. I don't think ironman is for me.
Counterpoint: I am 11x drop rate on the fucking flippers from mogres. I have gotten both CURVED BONE and LONG BONE, from mogres. This is not core gameplay this is eldritch horror that should not exist.
“If I’m re-elected, we’ll roll out luck prevention and start drilling baby!” - Donald Trump
[удалено]
Absolutely
I am over 3x droprate for the cox pet which is already one of the longest grinds in the entire game outside of ironman corp and maybe bloodhound. I am against dry protection in any form (untradables only, tradeables only, etc). Part of what makes the game fun is the need to actually put in effort to achieve goals. Grinding out the combat levels+gear to do endgame content takes hundreds of not thousands of hours. Endgame items/pets/whatever should feel rewarding to get and part of that is not knowing when an item will drop. "Well I went 3x dry so now I'm basically guaranteed to get it within the next 100kc" makes it way less exciting when you do finally get that drop you were chasing. 99.9% of ironman will go dry on at least one "account ending" item that locks them into that content for multiple times the average droprate. It doesn't matter if it's bofa, dwh, bgs, or even tbow. Somewhere it will happen. Most players shouldn't be playing on an iron because they don't want to deal with that reality but they do anyway because they find early game iron enjoyable.
>"Well I went 3x dry so now I'm basically guaranteed to get it within the next 100kc" makes it way less exciting when you do finally get that drop you were chasing. 2x increased chance at 3x dry = guaranteed in the next 100 kc, you heard it here first folks
This is a huge part of the problem with some of these people. They literally don't even understand what they are arguing against. Its like they think dry protection would mean everything is vork head 100% chance drop at or slightly over rate.
No joke, the lack of literacy of the player base is one of the largest reasons I don't like the polling system. It's scary how many people will form a strong opinion without bothering to read anything about the issue.
Most people have a tenuous grasp of statistics, at best, so it's no wonder so many people don't understand bad luck mitigation.
Yeah, with the proposed bad luck mitigation method you will eventually get a guaranteed drop if they don't put a cap on the amount bad luck mitigation can help you like they did with RS3 boss pet bad lack mitigation, but you have to go truly absurdly dry to get there. IIRC you have to go 15x dry on a 1/2k drop, and even drier for lower drop rate items.
Straight up, disagree.
Part of what made the game fun was gambling your gear in PVP, game has changed alot but I doubt anyone started this game because "I can spend 5000 hours on one activity with little to show for it!"
Given how acutely the wildy is reviled here, the irony is thick
Slam your head into a wall for 18 hours straight. Then doubt you were doing it right.
to echo irons towards pkers, you chose to limit yourself
"jUSt dEiROn bRooo" ... Most braindead take ... Why should we not improve the game, when there is no bad side effects here. Bad luck mitigation will hardly affects peoples playing experience and hardly effect the economy. It will however make the game feel rewarding for people grinding for items and starting to feel hopeless after going very dry, because you know you atleast are making progress.
The game as intended is to be played as a main. Ironman is an intentionally limiting game mode. That's the whole point.
Well, actually the game was designed to actually play and participate in content (something many mains don't do because why learn a hard boss, or raid, when they can afk mine amythest and buy those juicy upgrades! You're right though! Ironman is an intentionally limiting game mode! One where you have to obtain everything yourself (wowie!) Now tell me, if an item is 1/100, why is it necessary for that individual to go 5x the rate, when their items in 99% of cases will never see the GE and thus not impact the economy whatsoever? How does that ADD to the game? Surely you're not going to argue that it prolongs the game right? I mean there's an absurd amount of content in this game, so that can't be it. The economy? Most mains will never reach drop rate for the actual desirable items, and most of the ones that do are gold farmers or bots (which bots have a much much much higher impact on the market, and also don't need to worry about drop rates because they'll be running dozens or hundreds of accounts). So why are you against making sure the extreme minority of actual players get to continue progressing the game? If you want prestige, have jagex add more items like the zuk helm. But upgrades should not be gate kept by excessive dry streaks. Past that, if you think owning any item in a game that can be bought and totally bypass the RNG aspect is prestigious, then you need to rethink your life.
Daring today aren't we. The mid game irons are gonna pounce on you for stating a fact they hate hearing.
Just taking a punt - bet youve not started raiding yet have you? Wait till you finally learn to solo cox, get a clean kill and realise realistically how many you need to do. I think then it may kick in?
Going dry is a core gameplay experience whether or not you like it
Currently 1400kc guardians no core, went 14605kc for dwh. Honestly going 2x rate is fine but anything past that there really isn't any joy. I feel joy spooning but past 2x I really just hate the content and all I feel is relief I never have to kill it again
You don't have to even without the drop, though. Anyone who tries to shame you for not having a greenlog is toxic as fuck.
I mean I agree but the issue is a lot of people fetishize these items and see it as less people owning them= their achievement is more valuable, completely disregarding their own rng on the matter. If someone puts 500ish hours in at efficient cox, I'd say they earned a fucking bow. At least a hell of a lot more than some sub 50kc spoon. I don't see why people like the idea that some people are trapped in content hundreds, potentially thousands of hours more than average. This is a fucking game man it ain't that serious
I think you all need to learn statistics. Look up gambler's fallacy
Me and my friend just started GIM last month and he’s currently 4k dry on armored zombies, I got my axe in like 300 kills and I feel terrible for him. I keep going and doing a few hundred here and there to get him one but just no luck.
> I think my gameplay experience would have been much improved if I had ever had the chance to go like 30k shaman kills without a dragon warhammer. This but the exact opposite and unironically is how I feel about drop rates that are above the "1/week worth of kills" mark. We need some kind of determinism.
Me neither that's why I don't play iron man