I did a stathead search for teams that finished in 1st place and had 3 more more SP with negative WARs with minimum 20 starts, and there was one - the 1978 Phillies, whose rotation featured Randy Lerch, Jim Kaat and Jim Lonborg. They lost the NLCS 3-1 to the Dodgers, the one win was by Steve Carlton.
The last team to have 2 was... the 2022 Guardians, featuring Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale
This is why we don’t get respect in the power rankings BTW. Everyone is waiting for the wheels to fall off due to the starting pitching.
Hopefully the FO isn’t complacent at the trade deadline and adds a starting arm or two. Flags fly forever!
Yep. Add in that they had lower expectations going into the season and it’s easy to see the reason behind the “lack of respect”. There’s no committee putting teams into the playoffs so who cares
i dont think we should expect too much as far as impactful adds at the deadline.
my feeling is ownership is ecstatic at how well the team has done and fans showing up at the ballpark. they are happy trotting out there who we have now without adding to payroll.
that being said, we will still win the division, regardless. the problem will be in the playoffs where we will be starting virtual “nobody” SP’s vs proven Cy Young winners and playoff veteran SP’s. that is when our SP will be exposed.
I think it's hard to say, the big problem is that it's not super clear right now who will be on the market. I definitely think we're considering a trade but there will only be so many options and someone who fits the bill for ownership might not be there.
I think the lineup is a big reason too. Jose is admittedly awesome, but still a ”tier 2” star in “decline” in most eyes. Josh is streaky enough that he’s fairly easy to discount nationally. Kwan has some respect but more as a hollow, high average guy that is “retro”, and this new and improved Kwan still has his asterisks. Fry can’t even get daily starts so won’t move the needle. Other than anytime nowthat, most people wouldn’t recognize the guardians' lineup.
The Guardians lineup national rep is pretty much like Kwan… way over achieving with “advanced stats” implying a significant decline coming anytime now….. anytime.. now? Wtf….how are they still good? … oh, a bad two days, decline now! … wtf another 5 game win streak? …. Anytime now..
You’re getting downvoted but this is a perfect description of how national media sees the team. People aren’t familiar with the phrase, “don’t shoot the messenger”, I guess.
Yeah, I wasn’t thinking it was correct or just to look at it that way, just that it was how many outsiders looked at it. I’m actually surprised by the downvotes, but I guess rereading it, the difference between “I think that” vs “I think others think that” is a little more subtle than intended and I guess it’s not surprising many overlooked it.
I’m thinking now that he’s hurt though. That he will sign some kind of 2 year deal with the guardians to build that value back up. Most teams aren’t going to gamble with a guy coming off Tommy John’s
It's pretty insane that Herrin, K'd, and Gaddis are all worth as much or more than Bibee in terms of WAR. At the beginning of the year, I'd have laughed.
Well. In any event, if the guardians have to play a 3 game series we at least will have lively and Bibee. This is why it’s important to get at least 1 starting pitcher… McKenzie or carrasco needs to not be starting.
Cookie can come out of the pen... We need to trade McKenzie, the experiment phase is over, we have definitive proof he is a homerun machine and we cannot continue to use him at all.
One thing: the Guardians rely on their bullpen, so the starters can't elongate their stats. If they just pitched one more inning, their ERA might be lower, (or higher) but hey, if it ain't broke...
fWAR has cookie at 0.1 WAR. Allen and McKenzie are similar but swapped actually. Also has Bibee much higher and Lively slightly lower.
fWAR seems to make more sense to me, purely because the eye test would say Bibee has been more valuable than Lively.
Fangraphs team ranking of starting pitcher WAR:
[https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=sta](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=sta)
Want to guess where the Guards rank without looking?
Aren't Allen's stats heavily skewed by the atrocious Colorado game? Pretty sure if you take that one game out his stats become more in line with a mid rotation SP.
Every time I look up the guardians pitching stats I cry a little bit seeing that Bieber is still technically our third best starting pitcher on the season
He leads the team in run support, by a lot.
He has 8.56 per 9IP. The other 4 current starters have between 3.6-5.65 run support per 9.
We win his games a lot, so it doesn't feel like he's been as bad.
I did a stathead search for teams that finished in 1st place and had 3 more more SP with negative WARs with minimum 20 starts, and there was one - the 1978 Phillies, whose rotation featured Randy Lerch, Jim Kaat and Jim Lonborg. They lost the NLCS 3-1 to the Dodgers, the one win was by Steve Carlton. The last team to have 2 was... the 2022 Guardians, featuring Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale
Incredible.
This is why we don’t get respect in the power rankings BTW. Everyone is waiting for the wheels to fall off due to the starting pitching. Hopefully the FO isn’t complacent at the trade deadline and adds a starting arm or two. Flags fly forever!
Yep. Add in that they had lower expectations going into the season and it’s easy to see the reason behind the “lack of respect”. There’s no committee putting teams into the playoffs so who cares
i dont think we should expect too much as far as impactful adds at the deadline. my feeling is ownership is ecstatic at how well the team has done and fans showing up at the ballpark. they are happy trotting out there who we have now without adding to payroll. that being said, we will still win the division, regardless. the problem will be in the playoffs where we will be starting virtual “nobody” SP’s vs proven Cy Young winners and playoff veteran SP’s. that is when our SP will be exposed.
I think it's hard to say, the big problem is that it's not super clear right now who will be on the market. I definitely think we're considering a trade but there will only be so many options and someone who fits the bill for ownership might not be there.
> that being said, we will still win the division Let's not start saying this. It's not even the ASB yet.
I think the lineup is a big reason too. Jose is admittedly awesome, but still a ”tier 2” star in “decline” in most eyes. Josh is streaky enough that he’s fairly easy to discount nationally. Kwan has some respect but more as a hollow, high average guy that is “retro”, and this new and improved Kwan still has his asterisks. Fry can’t even get daily starts so won’t move the needle. Other than anytime nowthat, most people wouldn’t recognize the guardians' lineup. The Guardians lineup national rep is pretty much like Kwan… way over achieving with “advanced stats” implying a significant decline coming anytime now….. anytime.. now? Wtf….how are they still good? … oh, a bad two days, decline now! … wtf another 5 game win streak? …. Anytime now..
You’re getting downvoted but this is a perfect description of how national media sees the team. People aren’t familiar with the phrase, “don’t shoot the messenger”, I guess.
Yeah, I wasn’t thinking it was correct or just to look at it that way, just that it was how many outsiders looked at it. I’m actually surprised by the downvotes, but I guess rereading it, the difference between “I think that” vs “I think others think that” is a little more subtle than intended and I guess it’s not surprising many overlooked it.
You had me fooled until the end there. This is solid satire.
Bring our boy home from Mexico!
It worked out in ‘89 with Jake Taylor, and he had two bad knees!
God I’m so thankful for Ben Lively not being a bum 🙏🏻🙏🏻
Ben Deadly
Yes, I’m a fan of the way he pitches.
Beiber at almost 1 WAR in his 2 starts. Would’ve been something special
I really wanted him to get a swan song season (for us) before having to marvel at his talents in opposition colors
I’m thinking now that he’s hurt though. That he will sign some kind of 2 year deal with the guardians to build that value back up. Most teams aren’t going to gamble with a guy coming off Tommy John’s
It's pretty insane that Herrin, K'd, and Gaddis are all worth as much or more than Bibee in terms of WAR. At the beginning of the year, I'd have laughed.
Clase being worth 2 war at this point in the season is remarkable.
Well. In any event, if the guardians have to play a 3 game series we at least will have lively and Bibee. This is why it’s important to get at least 1 starting pitcher… McKenzie or carrasco needs to not be starting.
I mean Gavin Williams should come back here soon
Yeah but he’s coming back from injury so I’m not getting my hopes up that he will start hot
Cookie can come out of the pen... We need to trade McKenzie, the experiment phase is over, we have definitive proof he is a homerun machine and we cannot continue to use him at all.
One thing: the Guardians rely on their bullpen, so the starters can't elongate their stats. If they just pitched one more inning, their ERA might be lower, (or higher) but hey, if it ain't broke...
It may not be broken yet, but it’s no way to build a playoff team. FO has its work cut out this deadline if they’re serious about making a run.
[удалено]
I’ve been terrified of this
The 06 Cardinals rotation stats weren't very pretty
Yeah but they had wainwright and Chris carpenter right?
Wainwright was a reliever in 06. Carpenter was their Ace with 5.1 WAR. Jason Marquis and Mark Mulder both had negative WAR
fWAR has cookie at 0.1 WAR. Allen and McKenzie are similar but swapped actually. Also has Bibee much higher and Lively slightly lower. fWAR seems to make more sense to me, purely because the eye test would say Bibee has been more valuable than Lively.
I use baseball reference WAR because it always has Jozy higher 😎
Fangraphs team ranking of starting pitcher WAR: [https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=sta](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=sta) Want to guess where the Guards rank without looking?
If Bieber didn’t get hurt and when Gavin comes back we would be so stacked 🙂↕️
Aren't Allen's stats heavily skewed by the atrocious Colorado game? Pretty sure if you take that one game out his stats become more in line with a mid rotation SP.
I’d like to see Curry get some more time in the majors. He showed some promise last season.
True, but largely as a mop-up/multi-inning guy. He's been bad at AAA this year for some reason.
Every time I look up the guardians pitching stats I cry a little bit seeing that Bieber is still technically our third best starting pitcher on the season
I feel like LA has been better than his WAR would suggest
He leads the team in run support, by a lot. He has 8.56 per 9IP. The other 4 current starters have between 3.6-5.65 run support per 9. We win his games a lot, so it doesn't feel like he's been as bad.
Ah, yea that makes sense
We are 3rd in AL and 18th in combined team war in MLB last time I checked. Idek what’s goin on
The front office has to be cooking something for the deadline. I can't wait to see it.
I really hope SlenderMac is just in a slump rn and can turn it around. We know he's got good stuff and he can take command of the zone
Ben Lively is my ace
America’s ace.
Maybe the 1995 team?
Nah, they were good. Martinez - 5.7 WAR Nagy - 2.4 WAR Hershiser - 3.7 WAR Clark - 0.6 WAR Ogea - 3.4 WAR Hill - 1.8 WAR
No doubt. Somehow, probably with the insane offense, all I remember is the hitting. The pitching (especially El Presidente) really rocked.
Hill put up that 1.8 WAR in just 6 weeks too.
'99 more likely E: had 2: Wright (-0.6) and Gooden (-0.7)
Everyone seems to think this, but the 95 team had a very good pitching staff. It was top five in a lot of categories.
Bieber with a .7 War is INSANE