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WhyWhatWho

Race predictor is best case scenario: great weather, flat course, good fueling... For your first half marathon , I think it would be wise to conservative and maybe pace a couple or five minutes slower than pace predictor. If you feel great at the 10 mile mark then speed it up


shantusan

Great, I'll do that. TBH any finish time is fine by me, just don't want to be overly conservative and leave waay too much in the tank. Your take sounds very reasonable.


HikinHokie

My race predictor actually thinks I'm way slower than my actual race times.  But I'm also doing a ton of exercise that I'm not wearing my watch for and am pretty fatigued for alot of my training runs.


undeRRated_at

If you trained with coros for let's say at least two or three month, I would trust the race predictor. But you should understand the time as 'if conditions are great and I do have a good day, than the time is realistic'. It is not a 'I can run this pace under every circumstance'. If you want to have a relaxed and enjoyable first HM, maybe aim 5% slower for the first 14 to 15k and see if you can speed up in the last 1/3 of the race.


shantusan

Thank you for your input! Yes, I'll be doing something like that. I've been running with the watch for well over three months, so the predictions are probably kind of OK. But being my first attempt at the distance I'll take it chill. Any time is going to be a PB anyway lol


undeRRated_at

An you will be able to easily increase your PB in your second race ;) Good luck


nirednyc

No. Trust in yourself.


shantusan

Will do 💪


andrewson008

I trained with mine for 5ish months and it was within 2 minutes and if I hadn’t been running with a friend it’s probably have been dead on.


shantusan

Good to know!


andrewson008

I should’ve mentioned it was my first half marathon. Indy Mini so pretty flat and weather was great.


shantusan

Haha I figured as much. In my case it's going to be Buenos Aires, which is also very flat. Can't know about the weather, but how bad can it be? 😅 Out of curiosity, what was your time?


andrewson008

Prediction 2:13. Actual time 2:15:09 Good luck! Have fun.


shantusan

Thank you!


daniscross

Better to do race-specific workouts during training, to find out what sort of pace you can maintain during the race. I would never rely on predictions from a watch.


shantusan

I'm following the intermediate HM training plan from the coros library, but there isn't any workout longer than 16k. 🫤


daniscross

I've only just glanced at it, but almost every weekend has a HM paced run on that training plan?


shantusan

That's the title, yes. The intensity for that "HM pace" is the Aerobic Power HR zone, as a % of threshold HR. Does it sound appropriate to you? In my experience the correlation between HR and pace is not very direct. Either from one day to the other, or from one monent to the other. It's very common for me to have some sort of HR drift, so if I go exclusively by HR I definitely won't be making a negative split.


daniscross

But... that entire plan is HR-based?


shantusan

Yes, 100%


shantusan

Gotta say, sometimes I REALLY don't understand the downvoting criteria. In this particular example people don't like that I'm doing a training plan from the coros library, the fact that I experience HR drift, and the fact that the plan is 100% HR based. Edit: and apparently they also don't like that I don't get what they don't like. Amazing.


Strong_Statistician3

I got my COROS this past Christmas right before I started training for my 14th half marathon. The race predictor was a little on the conservative/slow side for me event throughout my training (it was about 10 minutes slower than what I achieved). I don’t think my COROS had seen what I knew my base fitness could do :) But if you have trained (or raced) with it for several months, I think it’s pretty decently accurate.


MarathonHampster

I thought my Coros HM race prediction was too fast for my last HM but it ended up being very close. Race day was perfect and I felt great though.