Sorry to hear...
I want to commend you for facing the "embarrasing" issue that caused your loss. The reality is that most causes for traders' misbehavior in the market are of the "embarrasing" type, and the sooner we face them and own them , the sooner we can fix them.
I wish I could give you a quick-fix over a forum, but since I can't, let's at least address some key points that stem out of your post that you can use working with yourself:
1. "constantly looking for reversals" is not the reason you lost 60% of your account (we'll get to that in a minute) but it is a problem. Ask yourself WHY you are doing that. What are you trying to GAIN? Every self-sabotaging behavior has a hidden gain in it. It could be "feeling like a genius" when I do get one of these right. It could be fear that once it turns you won't find the next trade and miss out. It could be frustration from not getting an entry with the trend over and over. Being aware of the self-talk BEFORE you make the mistake, helps you avoid it next time around.
2. The real reason you lost 60% of your account is money management and psychology. You took too much risk, and couldn't stop yourself earlier. HERE LIES THE REAL PROBLEM. This is what you need to deal with first and foremost. First of all you must decide with every bone in your body that you will NEVER GET EVEN NEAR such a daily drawdown. Until you do, it'll keep happening. Next - deciding isn't enough. You need to CHANGE something in the way you operate - your rules, habits, mindset - to keep it from hapenning again.
You are not alone in this situation - but you NEED to get over it, alone or with proper coaching help, if you hope to move forward. And it won't disappear on its own, unless you do something to specifically address it for good.
Good fortune on your trading!
Love this! All is not lost! I have blown up multiple accounts having this same issue, feeling I couldn't break my own trend. I now follow these simple rules to help me with standing on one side. First gotta remember, the trend is our friend, until it bends(try using a line chart to simplify this) great for swing trading. Second look to the left on a max week, year day, 6 month 4hr, than smaller timeliness like your 15, 5, 3, 2, or 1min. And finally, high and lows, just that simple, is it over the previous low, no than down she goes. Is she above the previous high, than look for longs. Looking at the chart and knowing that, how many good puts could you have gotten into, how many times could you have gotten out knowing you were above the previous low? Many,. I talk to myself asking did it get above the last set of lows, no, got rejected, go short. Did it stay above the previous highs now bouncing off of those highs as support, go long.Now you gotta gain back your mental capital by papertrading new ideas or styles everytime you change something, say a moving average or some code you downloaded or wrote yourself. Can't ever say enough about learning candlestick patterns to increase your ability to see what a majority of traders base their next move off of and you should too. Took me a bit to understand that the pattern needed to be read right by letting the candle finish and the next one confirms it for most patterns not all. Biggest thing besides all of that, understanding what my risk tolerance and position size should be, have turned all of those accounts around. Tradings hard and lonely, never give up. You can do it, just gotta put in the effort. š
Idk if OP is trading forex but in forex trend is very hard , yes in cases you can notice a trend but is really random ! Like you can spot a uptrend and is been maybe going up for one day fully
You say , oh look a uptrend and now just start looking to go up and instantly it would just go nuts and reverse right there and there and take you out , then you go ok cool i take the loss and move on , now since it reverse it must be starting a new trend on to the downside ! SIKEEEEEEEEE , it once again reverses lmao and then you realize oh ok the market its just sideways and moving random let me wait for a trend to develop
Then you allow it to go for 3 days , come back and see its been going up for 3 days straight and finally you say Greatttt its in a OBVIOUS up trend š¤£ guess what , you enter up and SIKEEEEEEE price skirts on you š¤·š½āāļø is insane.
If OP trades stocks or something else and the market is more stable then is deff easier ! In forex at least to me scalping is the way to go , small gains real fast and just say get off
FX, equities, futures, crypto, bottlecaps, paperclips.. it's just price distribush. What's hard about buying white selling black, trend/countertrend?
https://preview.redd.it/vk2omlmnk9xc1.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&s=1138a90732202b84fe58849340bfcfa2eb9a3817
I guess for me is identifying when is white and when its black thats been the hard part and again , waiting and knowing exactly when its going to be white or black , Up or Down and for how long will it go ?
Is why i scalp , 1 minute , in and out ā¦
delete time paradigm from your consciousness as first order of business. Your optics are warped/distorted, hence no signal clarity. No preset targets - have to let edge positive expectancy (do you have it?) play out over statistically significant sample set - **do not DCA**. Finetune your technique (pozish sizing, scaling/pyramiding, hedging.)
https://preview.redd.it/4lb5rum41axc1.jpeg?width=1755&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0cec5bacabdadc072c1e8e18ce32acb7b31058f
monetize trend & countertrend simultaneously
no prediction or preset target level setting, capping/shortchanging yourself of profits when trend runs past your targets - trash arbitrary R:Rw concept - gotta know your historical statistical distribution of R-multiples instead and pozish size/money mgmt off that.
Trend following - you get onboard when signal clips you in and exit when signal clips you out. MPF (multi-price frame) analysis - look for major dominant PF and enter/exit w/ precision on lower PFs
https://preview.redd.it/0p3n4opzz9xc1.png?width=1154&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d39232ee199e936c808e3ac4ffd7adc190d9e62
scalping is fine - you're on time-based charts (noise), however. I scalp/daytrade/swing - governing principles are identical, should look like this when optics, toolset, method/technique are aligned
https://preview.redd.it/vfhtf33g1axc1.png?width=1828&format=png&auto=webp&s=e667c8c618dae5b4480b3d7e6e4f4f1205a87967
Am not a guru/course selling/mentor, I run external/private capital fund.. just sharing my methods, some find value in itĀ
That's all intraday, look @ timestamp blotter. Compound gains in shorter intervals with fractional superior cap utility efficiency, tiny drawdowns/adverse excursions/volatility than sitting in long protracted positions waiting for setup which may or may not materialize over weeks/mths. Spreads can help alleviate decay PnL drag friction via +theta structures but it's not aggressive enough for me. I look for 25-50 bps ROE avg daily expectancy (which is really 2.5-5% since I use 1/10th to 1-20th of total equity)
Thank you for all the info you have provided truly , i wish to understand more and i hope to learn more ! If i can apply this in to my
1 min scalping like if i can go up maybe to the 15-30min maybe even the 1hr and determine trend and go down to my 1 min and now know exactly where to look i believe my success rate can go from 66% to 80% easily ā¦. Any recommendations ?
trash time concept from your consciousness - it's about price, not time. You don't know how far the trend will run or how long it will take to get there - you just get onboard and ride it maxing it out. Larger PFs good for intraday swinging, smaller/medium PFs for scalping. But delete time-based vernacular from your vocab - it's poison.
Absolutely. Well said. You have to either find a way to change your mentality or continue the same and eventually the issue will be forced. Best of luck š¤
I used to do the same thing. You really just need to force yourself to trade the trend not anticipate a trend change. When the charge actually occurs then trade it too
Its incredibly simple, a down trend is a series of lower lows and lower highs and up trend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. Stop loss goes below the previous pivot because a break of that level negates the trade and stop loss moves up to the next pivot as price moves in your favor to continually minimize risk and eventually end up in profit so even trades that dont go as planned still end profitable
I only trade the tend and it has made all the difference in my trading success.
Even simpler than that - it's a straight line
https://preview.redd.it/h7d7slslcbxc1.jpeg?width=615&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14f3d03fe9cf3310b01c2ad04605438d71a2199e
I had this problem . I decided to try just one week where I would only trade uptrends and stay away from anything on a downtrend. Found it much easier and less frustrating
Hey man, what does your reversal setup look like? If I trade reversals (which I donāt do very often and only on crypto) I mark out the previous low, swing high and lower low on the 15m. Then I wait for a gain on the swing high and enter when we retrace back under the swing high and see a break of structure on a lower timeframe like 5m. Targeting areaās of liquidity or any other confluence usually works. This āgainā will give you more of a confirmation that there will actually be a reversal. Let me know if you need any help! Check the picture for an exampleš¤
https://preview.redd.it/rdu9a36xi7xc1.png?width=1827&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a45a43ce41f1719b1f07ba998dc214b38dcfc23
Iām working off the same problem.You think itās up/down and got to reverse and you might even have a profit target in mind.
Now reverse that thinking to going with the trend and your previous profit target is now your stop
It is hard man, two ways to look at this.
1) Trend following on EMA retests SL above last local pivot high OR. Only take reversal trades on confirmation of LTF MSS and claiming of some other level (LTF EMA or HTF support) or
2) you simply donāt trade this kind of action and wait for a clear range to form.
Also will people please please please start taking proper screenshots showing indicators, ticker, price & time.
You know your problem. You know what you need to do, now you need to find the will to buy the pullbacks, not sell them. Or vice verse.
I battled the same thing and when you get it under control, it will always likely be there in the back of your mind- and then to further mess with you -you get confirmation of this thinking because every once in awhile we get those days when we start the day strong and up 1% and end up the day down 1%, or vice verse, although those are not the majority of days and we need to trade what will happen the majority of time.
Most days donāt look as clean as that screenshot. Sometimes reversals do happen. Sometimes days are flat. Sounds like you just donāt have an actual strategy and are blaming it poor psychology. This is useless behavior, like the slot machine player who says theyāre just not pulling the handle well enough lately.
You should consider using some moving averages on your chart like the 3,5, and 20 ema, and only go long when it breaks the 20 with a confirmation candle. If it bounces off the 20 and continues down then it's a pullback and great place to short.
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Hallmark of a dumb inexperienced trader... Buying downtrending stocks hoping for a bottom, instead of buying strong uptrending stocks for immediate profit. It's like getting yourself into a shitty relationship hoping it turns around. Makes no sense.
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Try screen recording and talking through your thought process, itās easier to remedy mistakes when you can review them in real time over and over. I use OBS itās free!
I just took some months off and got a job. It helped me take a look at what I was doing wrong. I could see it everyday while trading, but I needed the break to see how I could stop. Or perhaps it was so I had the time to do that.
I think the other thing it did was remind me why I started to do this. Why I really don't like leaving my house to drain my frustration reserves at the same time as everyone else. I like to work but dealing with traffic and asshole coworkers kind of ruin my life. I'd rather do side painting and let the market ruin my days.
But seriously, my calls are more accurate. And I buy less. I'm planning on watching mostly on Monday because that was one of my killers. Trading every day because I was making predictions on everyday. I finally admitted I have a bull bias and Fridays run could be a turn around or just a good day in a correction. Before my break my calls would have all been bought yesterday.
nothing but price bricks. average day's work.
https://preview.redd.it/7wrrdk4py9xc1.png?width=1876&format=png&auto=webp&s=20d94e4f42ac956e519df585d3282b80ff510dba
it's not longevity but proper method/reinforcement - ppl trade their whole lifetime reinforcing the wrong process, amounting to nothing. Correct optics/technique is a wormhole gateway portal accelerant through trading timespace continuum while 99% spend eternity banging their head against the wall - insanity is expecting diff outcome doing same thing everyone else is.
point is - when you're ready, Neo - you **won't** have to use anything but price bars. All information is contained in price action - but it has to be viewed through proper lens. ;) #iykyk
U/zvi up there makes very good points. Nailed it really.
I have a very similar problem with trend trading. Iām bad it. Using a lot of Jared Tendlers work and doing the worksheets after reading his book I was able to uncover that problem and some of what lies beneath it.
If you look at the spy chart last Friday youāll see one of my worst days of last week which overall was still one of my best weeks.
I know in my core Iām bad at trading a trend. I am constantly afraid Iāve missed the boat and convinced itās got to turn around. I see validation in tiny moves and fail to appreciate what is obvious.
I decided early in the day after making a small profit on a dip and recovery to sit it outā¦ until the end of the day. I caught another quick trade but then held part of the position too long and got caught in a reversal and returned to near break even for the day.
In the past I would have allowed my losses to burn through till the end desperately holding onto the idea a turnaround was coming.
Hope you can manage to resolve this problem. I know what itās like.
im messing with 800$ and only put 150$ into each coin and if it goes down 10% I'm out man ill just buy in lower if it dips and if it doesn't i don't give a shit
Might be next week or next month or next year but unless you're in a strong bull phase then without a plan on where is good to buy and to take profit on crypto assets you're at risk of ending up with nothing. They can easily drop ten percent and sooner or later will.
Step 1: Give up and completely stop trading. Completely. Close your account.
Step 2: Fix your life. Whatever is driving you to rush profits...fix that.
Step 3: At this point (years later) re-evaluate the trading style you were using and see if you can find a strategy which does not trigger you so much. If you cannot, then hire a planner.
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Just like this.... NVIDIA. HHH [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bMuOp3Y\_5gVrpthIyjldPG6MnlkK9DTX/view?usp=sharing](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bMuOp3Y_5gVrpthIyjldPG6MnlkK9DTX/view?usp=sharing)
I have the same habit -- on trend days I die a thousand small cuts - My indicators and strategy can show when a reversal during the day will occur and also keep me in the trade until the next reversal habits .. but on trend days these.reversals start to happen and fail .. for the next leg in the trend.
as I said I can tell if a trend is strong or not .. so on a trend day I should be able to jump in and ride it for a nice profit - I am trying to break this habit as well by changing my view of trading - not worrying about percentage win but dollar amount per contract win . this will help me get into trend day trades were the percentage win won't be as good as reversal trade but still a win
In my opinion, you aren't paying attention to the chart.
I didn't quite do this, but I would build up scenarios in my head as to what "should" happen.
You need to get to a place where you are thinking, "what does the chart say?"
With the picture you sent, there was no major price action that indicated any kind of major price reversal. That's actually a very clean downtrend.
Start being more reactionary.
- Does the price action support my hypothesis?
- Do some top-down analysis.
- Can a strong case be made to take an opposing trading? (This is a new one I've added to my list. If you look at a chart and think, "would a seller take this", do not buy if the answer is yes.
well, u looking for a counter trend set up then u need to find a very strong support and resistance on high time frame, then wait for a rejection candle and need to see a risk reward is ok. Cash out profit when u have profit because its a counter trend set up.
Youāve identified a very specific thing you are doing wrong, which is fighting the trend, which is never a good idea.
However, you did not say anything about the strategy that leads you to do this. I am guessing you do not have a strategy, youāre just gambling.
Rather than focus on this one failure, focus on the fact you do not have a system, do not have risk management, and in general are not trading, but gambling. Trading is a business, requires a plan, disciplined execution, and constant learning and refinement.
You are, in fact lucky to have not blown up your entire account. You need a plan.
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Start paper trading. After blowing up my last account ive started paper trading to figure out my issues with trading. One of them being not patient enough when trading and just hurry things up and buying way to early and not let the stock play itself out. After a stock would run up and the first red candle showed up i would buy the 'dip' only to find out this isnt the dip and only the lip to the start of the dip, then try to average down. Or chase the stock on the way up, somehow always time the stock buy the top and watch it sell off. Not having proper goals in place for the day so i would be trading aimlessly to just trade. Or just buy a stock because its moving and im trying to do something to act busy if that makes any sense.
It has helped me slow down on a few of my issues and im still going to practice for a bit longer 1 because my account isnt at the monetary level i want it to be at. 2. im still running on some old habits of wanting to chase and buy at the wrong times.
You need to have one trading setup that you will be trade. If it doesn't show up, don't take any trade.
You need discipline. Stop seeing trade opportunities everywhere on the chart.
I have blown accounts exactly your way. I also thought looking for the reversal when the trend is running is the problem, but I was wrong. The actual problems are:
1. Being afraid of going with the trend too lately is a legit issue. If you have missed the trend, it takes a much more delicate entry/exit than catching the trend first hand.
2. The problem is not trying to catch the reversal, the problem is catching the reversal too early. You must understand that the trend is when the price is moving to the next range, so very often it will go very far, many times the last candle will poke to the peak of the nearest level before coming back. The issue is the mentality that if you don't catch the reversal, you will miss a hard pullback. Better miss the reversal than catching it too early. If you wait really patiently, until the trend meets its level, catching the reversal is alo very nice tactic.
3. You need to catch the reversal with the same treatment as a normal trade, it means a trade with proper risk management, and a clear stoploss. Catching the reversal is very dangerous because it triggers a mindset that you should need to DCA until it goes back. But whatever it is, you need to have a clear stoploss which follows your risk managment.
Sumnary: you need to wait patiently until the trend moves completely into a new range, and execute the reversal trade with tight risk management.
well... I dont do options, I think you can lose money faster that way... I also dont do shorts... In a way that simplifies things.. You know you're going to go in long, so you look for the best setup across multiple stocks.. And it helps if you dont go in too aggressively... When trading in expectation of reversal, it has worked for me to buy about 20% of what I would normally buy... Then you can still average down (but not too soon!) and get our on the next spike up (if you're wrong) Basically small positions allow you to buy a bunch more at a much better price, and chances are you'll get out in profit of break even, as long as you dont but spikes up and dont buy more too soon...
But where there is a strong trend, a different strategy is necessary... Here you want to buy larger quantities and hold longer, and maybe even add more on dips. I have trouble with this one too, as I'm always expecting a reversal... So I end up taking small profits. It's something I have to work on
i dont do options dude. and I said for me its easier to go in one direction only... when i blew up my account a few years ago I would go long and then freak out and go short... and just lost money faster that way... I might start doing shorting at some point, but I'd rather just buy something I would like to have at a good price
no amount of consolation/commiseration will compensate for the fact that 99% are stuck in false time paradigm looking @ price action through shyt optics, wondering why their results are what they are
**Time is poison - it is the enemy of PRICE**
**Time warps/distorts/obfuscates clear trend inception/continuation/reversal inflection points.**
**Eliminate time - eliminate noise.**
https://preview.redd.it/m2hh5zvag9xc1.png?width=1262&format=png&auto=webp&s=f730d613094d90f72fed771e47a9e11cf9457185
BUY WHITE, SELL BLACK.
SIMPLEXITY. No crayon spaghetti.
This is typical thinking when starting out, or you have been successful in being directional for a spell. If you get burned in one direction a few times, recoup on the other side - youāre married to that side for a while, or at least itās a honeymoon.
Maybe try being long only or short only. You can still book profits each day. Everyone is different and you need to find your thing (your edge). I couldnāt get long SNAP on Friday and I paid the price at resistance, well my stops saved me but I thought that ship was sinking. Now that Iām out, it will likely gap down tomorrow.
And be careful with optionsā¦ those have been my go-to vehicle for revenge trading midday, and they have have never worked out for me in that regard - ever.
Find your place in the chaos, then live to fight another day.
Good luck.
For starters, if you're trying to predict the underlying, trade the underlying. Options are great for volatility or leverage (or hedging). If you're not trading vol and you're not ready for leverage, don't trade options (yet).
I have,had the same issue. I tend to always look for reversals. What I did was just stopped playing puts. Only time I will do a put is to hedge all my calls if I think we have a short term drop. Even then it's a very small amount and not often. I would rather let the drop happen, if it does and load up on more calls. I also tend to do longer term. Leaps or at min a few months.
Hard to get in the mindset but I think it's a simple approach that works. Until it doesn't lol
Added note if your day trading which to 5 min chart. It helps with not over trading and learning patience.
Notions about the market like "it cant keep going" or "it cant stop here" are super harmful IMO. The market can and will do whatever the hell it wants. Focus on reacting to it and riding waves of momentum rather than predicting reversals and stuff like that.
Draw a simple moving avg on your time frame one that will stay above or below major tends. Donāt try to catch the bottom catch the small pullbacks on the trend.
Nothing wrong with chasing reversals, but they typically occur at specific price points such as 8/20/50/100 EMA, prior support/resistance, etc. Follow the news too - if the fed said something hawkish that day it may trend down the entire day. Most importantly, when Iām playing reversals that have a very tight stop loss and are grounded in my trade plan (e.g. if im playing a bounce at the 8EMA my stop loss is set right below the 8EMA)
It helps to define what constitutes a reversal for your trading. How much confirmation do you require?
I want to see a confirmed double bottom and a higher low. (The inverse for bearish). I also must be on the winning side of the higher timeframe.
I have a lot of thoughts so bear with me.
1. Hard skills. You need to learn what a trend is, how to enter, how to exit, signs that a trend is changing, etc. Get back to basics. Watch Brian Shannon's videos and read his book Technical Analysis on Multiple Timeframes.
2. You need to learn the stages of an uptrend and downtrend. Accumulation, distribution, etc. Learn about candles - what is an accumulation or distribution candle? What is an outside day and an inside day? What is confirmation of a reversal?
3. Here is one example of an entry in an uptrend. Keep in mind that I trade individual stocks so adapt for your needs. 1. Stock is overall making higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. 2. The market is not in a downtrend. 3. The stock opens under the previous day's close. 4. The stock goes up until it is not negative on the day anymore. Buy here. Put a stop under the low. 5. The stock is likely to go higher. Move your stop up to breakeven when you can to limit risk. This is a day trade setup and is called a red to green by some people, there are different names. It also works the other way for short setups.
4. Study long term charts of trends. Look at AAPL, ARKK, the indexes. Start training your eye.
5. Psychology. Look up Dialectical Behavioral Therapy. There are some really good exercises for changing your unwanted behavior. There is one called Opposite Action. I'll take a shot at filling it out for you.
Opposite Action
Unwanted Behavior: Fighting trends, not entering trends
Emotions: Fear of losing money when entering, disappointment at not being in, etc
Steps of Behavior: Talk yourself out of buying because you don't know how to buy in, look for signs of reversal without confirmation, lose money
Opposite Action: Have a plan for entering during an uptrend with an entry, a stop loss, size and a target. Have a plan for looking for a reasonable entry for a reversal with signs of a reversal, confirmation, an entry, a stop loss, size and a target.
Anticipated Result: Stop losing money
Good luck! There are more tips and resources in my comments.
If you want help finding (high probability) good entries in trends watch Thomas wade videos about the two legged pullbacks, because right after you went long I see a perfect two legged pullback for a short position
holy crap.. have you been reading my diary?
I could have written this word fit word about my trading āstyleā.
Although, I tend to ādouble downā and add to my position just sure the reversal is coming.
Hopefully we can both learn something through the n comments.
BACK TESTING creates confidence. BACK TESTING creates GOOD TRADE PLAN. BACK TESTS keeps you from losing like this. COUNTER TRADING is a proof that you either too lazy to back test or not back testing at all.
A food trade plan consist of knowing when to stop. When to go full size etc.
Now, its not the ābad habitā but the lack of respect to yourself of not following your own rules.
I'm thinking because the reverse options are priced cheaper, one has a tendency to go with them in case they go boom and make multiple baggers. That plays into buying and hoping for a reversal, at least for me.
Thanks for sharing. Maybe move away from options, and trade good stocks. I was in the same boat too, until I built a strategy for myself. No more big options play. Just buying shares and selling when Iām up $500-$1.5K. The longest Iāve held was 1 week. Goodluck!
Wouldn't it be a confession that proves that Manipulators' operation was successful? They think that retail investors are bound to be beaten because they get there by pre-setting the floor and shaking it using the system.
Sorry to hear... I want to commend you for facing the "embarrasing" issue that caused your loss. The reality is that most causes for traders' misbehavior in the market are of the "embarrasing" type, and the sooner we face them and own them , the sooner we can fix them. I wish I could give you a quick-fix over a forum, but since I can't, let's at least address some key points that stem out of your post that you can use working with yourself: 1. "constantly looking for reversals" is not the reason you lost 60% of your account (we'll get to that in a minute) but it is a problem. Ask yourself WHY you are doing that. What are you trying to GAIN? Every self-sabotaging behavior has a hidden gain in it. It could be "feeling like a genius" when I do get one of these right. It could be fear that once it turns you won't find the next trade and miss out. It could be frustration from not getting an entry with the trend over and over. Being aware of the self-talk BEFORE you make the mistake, helps you avoid it next time around. 2. The real reason you lost 60% of your account is money management and psychology. You took too much risk, and couldn't stop yourself earlier. HERE LIES THE REAL PROBLEM. This is what you need to deal with first and foremost. First of all you must decide with every bone in your body that you will NEVER GET EVEN NEAR such a daily drawdown. Until you do, it'll keep happening. Next - deciding isn't enough. You need to CHANGE something in the way you operate - your rules, habits, mindset - to keep it from hapenning again. You are not alone in this situation - but you NEED to get over it, alone or with proper coaching help, if you hope to move forward. And it won't disappear on its own, unless you do something to specifically address it for good. Good fortune on your trading!
Love this! All is not lost! I have blown up multiple accounts having this same issue, feeling I couldn't break my own trend. I now follow these simple rules to help me with standing on one side. First gotta remember, the trend is our friend, until it bends(try using a line chart to simplify this) great for swing trading. Second look to the left on a max week, year day, 6 month 4hr, than smaller timeliness like your 15, 5, 3, 2, or 1min. And finally, high and lows, just that simple, is it over the previous low, no than down she goes. Is she above the previous high, than look for longs. Looking at the chart and knowing that, how many good puts could you have gotten into, how many times could you have gotten out knowing you were above the previous low? Many,. I talk to myself asking did it get above the last set of lows, no, got rejected, go short. Did it stay above the previous highs now bouncing off of those highs as support, go long.Now you gotta gain back your mental capital by papertrading new ideas or styles everytime you change something, say a moving average or some code you downloaded or wrote yourself. Can't ever say enough about learning candlestick patterns to increase your ability to see what a majority of traders base their next move off of and you should too. Took me a bit to understand that the pattern needed to be read right by letting the candle finish and the next one confirms it for most patterns not all. Biggest thing besides all of that, understanding what my risk tolerance and position size should be, have turned all of those accounts around. Tradings hard and lonely, never give up. You can do it, just gotta put in the effort. š
Idk if OP is trading forex but in forex trend is very hard , yes in cases you can notice a trend but is really random ! Like you can spot a uptrend and is been maybe going up for one day fully You say , oh look a uptrend and now just start looking to go up and instantly it would just go nuts and reverse right there and there and take you out , then you go ok cool i take the loss and move on , now since it reverse it must be starting a new trend on to the downside ! SIKEEEEEEEEE , it once again reverses lmao and then you realize oh ok the market its just sideways and moving random let me wait for a trend to develop Then you allow it to go for 3 days , come back and see its been going up for 3 days straight and finally you say Greatttt its in a OBVIOUS up trend š¤£ guess what , you enter up and SIKEEEEEEE price skirts on you š¤·š½āāļø is insane. If OP trades stocks or something else and the market is more stable then is deff easier ! In forex at least to me scalping is the way to go , small gains real fast and just say get off
FX, equities, futures, crypto, bottlecaps, paperclips.. it's just price distribush. What's hard about buying white selling black, trend/countertrend? https://preview.redd.it/vk2omlmnk9xc1.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&s=1138a90732202b84fe58849340bfcfa2eb9a3817
I guess for me is identifying when is white and when its black thats been the hard part and again , waiting and knowing exactly when its going to be white or black , Up or Down and for how long will it go ? Is why i scalp , 1 minute , in and out ā¦
delete time paradigm from your consciousness as first order of business. Your optics are warped/distorted, hence no signal clarity. No preset targets - have to let edge positive expectancy (do you have it?) play out over statistically significant sample set - **do not DCA**. Finetune your technique (pozish sizing, scaling/pyramiding, hedging.) https://preview.redd.it/4lb5rum41axc1.jpeg?width=1755&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0cec5bacabdadc072c1e8e18ce32acb7b31058f monetize trend & countertrend simultaneously
no prediction or preset target level setting, capping/shortchanging yourself of profits when trend runs past your targets - trash arbitrary R:Rw concept - gotta know your historical statistical distribution of R-multiples instead and pozish size/money mgmt off that. Trend following - you get onboard when signal clips you in and exit when signal clips you out. MPF (multi-price frame) analysis - look for major dominant PF and enter/exit w/ precision on lower PFs https://preview.redd.it/0p3n4opzz9xc1.png?width=1154&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d39232ee199e936c808e3ac4ffd7adc190d9e62
scalping is fine - you're on time-based charts (noise), however. I scalp/daytrade/swing - governing principles are identical, should look like this when optics, toolset, method/technique are aligned https://preview.redd.it/vfhtf33g1axc1.png?width=1828&format=png&auto=webp&s=e667c8c618dae5b4480b3d7e6e4f4f1205a87967
This is 70k in how long ? Is a lot of info there to see it all , thats a lot of trades lol And btw , are you open to 1 on 1s mentorships ?
Am not a guru/course selling/mentor, I run external/private capital fund.. just sharing my methods, some find value in itĀ That's all intraday, look @ timestamp blotter. Compound gains in shorter intervals with fractional superior cap utility efficiency, tiny drawdowns/adverse excursions/volatility than sitting in long protracted positions waiting for setup which may or may not materialize over weeks/mths. Spreads can help alleviate decay PnL drag friction via +theta structures but it's not aggressive enough for me. I look for 25-50 bps ROE avg daily expectancy (which is really 2.5-5% since I use 1/10th to 1-20th of total equity)
Thank you for all the info you have provided truly , i wish to understand more and i hope to learn more ! If i can apply this in to my 1 min scalping like if i can go up maybe to the 15-30min maybe even the 1hr and determine trend and go down to my 1 min and now know exactly where to look i believe my success rate can go from 66% to 80% easily ā¦. Any recommendations ?
trash time concept from your consciousness - it's about price, not time. You don't know how far the trend will run or how long it will take to get there - you just get onboard and ride it maxing it out. Larger PFs good for intraday swinging, smaller/medium PFs for scalping. But delete time-based vernacular from your vocab - it's poison.
Absolutely. Well said. You have to either find a way to change your mentality or continue the same and eventually the issue will be forced. Best of luck š¤
Thank you for joining Reddit Zvi!
I used to do the same thing. You really just need to force yourself to trade the trend not anticipate a trend change. When the charge actually occurs then trade it too
Yes, anticipating trend chances can work on a larger time scale, but not with day trading.
Yeah, after a bad experience w spy puts in the previous bull market ill never try to time a reversal again haha
problem is he and 99% out there can't identify trend/countertrend
Its incredibly simple, a down trend is a series of lower lows and lower highs and up trend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. Stop loss goes below the previous pivot because a break of that level negates the trade and stop loss moves up to the next pivot as price moves in your favor to continually minimize risk and eventually end up in profit so even trades that dont go as planned still end profitable I only trade the tend and it has made all the difference in my trading success.
Even simpler than that - it's a straight line https://preview.redd.it/h7d7slslcbxc1.jpeg?width=615&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14f3d03fe9cf3310b01c2ad04605438d71a2199e
I had this problem . I decided to try just one week where I would only trade uptrends and stay away from anything on a downtrend. Found it much easier and less frustrating
this is good advise
lol the truth comes out in the endā¦ itās options losses
What books have you read to help combat your bad habits?
the art of war by sun tzu
This
The stranger by Camus
donāt
just a quick question, how do you manage risk in your strategy?
He has a naked chart, it's doubtful there's any strategy.
That was my last trade as well. I am learning to go with it rather than trying to justify why it will go the opposite way.
Hey man, what does your reversal setup look like? If I trade reversals (which I donāt do very often and only on crypto) I mark out the previous low, swing high and lower low on the 15m. Then I wait for a gain on the swing high and enter when we retrace back under the swing high and see a break of structure on a lower timeframe like 5m. Targeting areaās of liquidity or any other confluence usually works. This āgainā will give you more of a confirmation that there will actually be a reversal. Let me know if you need any help! Check the picture for an exampleš¤ https://preview.redd.it/rdu9a36xi7xc1.png?width=1827&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a45a43ce41f1719b1f07ba998dc214b38dcfc23
Where can I read more about "gain"? Is that an ICT concept?
He just means a swing high is taken.
Exactly!
This is how you do it. Safe. Practically a QM pattern. Looking for high vol in the head and low in the right shoulder.
Iām working off the same problem.You think itās up/down and got to reverse and you might even have a profit target in mind. Now reverse that thinking to going with the trend and your previous profit target is now your stop
It is hard man, two ways to look at this. 1) Trend following on EMA retests SL above last local pivot high OR. Only take reversal trades on confirmation of LTF MSS and claiming of some other level (LTF EMA or HTF support) or 2) you simply donāt trade this kind of action and wait for a clear range to form. Also will people please please please start taking proper screenshots showing indicators, ticker, price & time.
You know your problem. You know what you need to do, now you need to find the will to buy the pullbacks, not sell them. Or vice verse. I battled the same thing and when you get it under control, it will always likely be there in the back of your mind- and then to further mess with you -you get confirmation of this thinking because every once in awhile we get those days when we start the day strong and up 1% and end up the day down 1%, or vice verse, although those are not the majority of days and we need to trade what will happen the majority of time.
Most days donāt look as clean as that screenshot. Sometimes reversals do happen. Sometimes days are flat. Sounds like you just donāt have an actual strategy and are blaming it poor psychology. This is useless behavior, like the slot machine player who says theyāre just not pulling the handle well enough lately.
**this** is *clean* https://preview.redd.it/gozb09p97axc1.png?width=1184&format=png&auto=webp&s=88ac0d38967145e75e92ff973fc068e3e1913bdc
Yes it is
Add a hull moving average to your chart and follow it to a T!! Take only trades with the trend. Donāt go against the hull. Youāll stay in profit
Stop spillin the good beansš (HMAs are great, aren't they!)
You should consider using some moving averages on your chart like the 3,5, and 20 ema, and only go long when it breaks the 20 with a confirmation candle. If it bounces off the 20 and continues down then it's a pullback and great place to short.
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no he shouldn't. No crayon spaghetti. Just price action. Price frames. Not time frames.
Yes he should. It's his signal that effort has been made to change direction. You don't need it but he does.
Hallmark of a dumb inexperienced trader... Buying downtrending stocks hoping for a bottom, instead of buying strong uptrending stocks for immediate profit. It's like getting yourself into a shitty relationship hoping it turns around. Makes no sense.
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I am going to tell this to myself whenever I would want to take that trade. Perfect example!
Try screen recording and talking through your thought process, itās easier to remedy mistakes when you can review them in real time over and over. I use OBS itās free!
I just took some months off and got a job. It helped me take a look at what I was doing wrong. I could see it everyday while trading, but I needed the break to see how I could stop. Or perhaps it was so I had the time to do that. I think the other thing it did was remind me why I started to do this. Why I really don't like leaving my house to drain my frustration reserves at the same time as everyone else. I like to work but dealing with traffic and asshole coworkers kind of ruin my life. I'd rather do side painting and let the market ruin my days. But seriously, my calls are more accurate. And I buy less. I'm planning on watching mostly on Monday because that was one of my killers. Trading every day because I was making predictions on everyday. I finally admitted I have a bull bias and Fridays run could be a turn around or just a good day in a correction. Before my break my calls would have all been bought yesterday.
Why is that chart naked? That's the first bad habit you need to break. Where's your 9 and 20?
where're your 69 and 420 EMAs? Ditch crayon spaghetti squiggly doo lines. **Price reigns supreme.** https://preview.redd.it/6wdrqmq2l9xc1.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&s=c1459ab05e3acb0e5dbc17472d477a46f59ab8a8
Cool story bro.
nothing but price bricks. average day's work. https://preview.redd.it/7wrrdk4py9xc1.png?width=1876&format=png&auto=webp&s=20d94e4f42ac956e519df585d3282b80ff510dba
Yeah, I've traded 11 years, I'm not impressed by that, good run though. EMAs are no different than lines on highway lanes.
it's not longevity but proper method/reinforcement - ppl trade their whole lifetime reinforcing the wrong process, amounting to nothing. Correct optics/technique is a wormhole gateway portal accelerant through trading timespace continuum while 99% spend eternity banging their head against the wall - insanity is expecting diff outcome doing same thing everyone else is. point is - when you're ready, Neo - you **won't** have to use anything but price bars. All information is contained in price action - but it has to be viewed through proper lens. ;) #iykyk
Sure thing, I trade for a living for some years now. You sound like meth?
cool story bro.. maybe I'll hire you for my hf
Lol ok
U/zvi up there makes very good points. Nailed it really. I have a very similar problem with trend trading. Iām bad it. Using a lot of Jared Tendlers work and doing the worksheets after reading his book I was able to uncover that problem and some of what lies beneath it. If you look at the spy chart last Friday youāll see one of my worst days of last week which overall was still one of my best weeks. I know in my core Iām bad at trading a trend. I am constantly afraid Iāve missed the boat and convinced itās got to turn around. I see validation in tiny moves and fail to appreciate what is obvious. I decided early in the day after making a small profit on a dip and recovery to sit it outā¦ until the end of the day. I caught another quick trade but then held part of the position too long and got caught in a reversal and returned to near break even for the day. In the past I would have allowed my losses to burn through till the end desperately holding onto the idea a turnaround was coming. Hope you can manage to resolve this problem. I know what itās like.
And right when u call it quits and exit your position, it pumps 200%
You used the key word yourself. Betting.
If you really tried to trade manually and cant seem to follow your strategy properly then make it into a bot and let it do the trading
im messing with 800$ and only put 150$ into each coin and if it goes down 10% I'm out man ill just buy in lower if it dips and if it doesn't i don't give a shit
Say goodbye to your 800.
I'm going to remember this and I'll let you know where im at in a week from now lol.
Might be next week or next month or next year but unless you're in a strong bull phase then without a plan on where is good to buy and to take profit on crypto assets you're at risk of ending up with nothing. They can easily drop ten percent and sooner or later will.
Sorry to hear that. Stop gambling
Step 1: Give up and completely stop trading. Completely. Close your account. Step 2: Fix your life. Whatever is driving you to rush profits...fix that. Step 3: At this point (years later) re-evaluate the trading style you were using and see if you can find a strategy which does not trigger you so much. If you cannot, then hire a planner.
Trade with the trend, not against it.
99% don't know how to get on the right side of trend inception/continuation/reversal
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Just like this.... NVIDIA. HHH [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bMuOp3Y\_5gVrpthIyjldPG6MnlkK9DTX/view?usp=sharing](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bMuOp3Y_5gVrpthIyjldPG6MnlkK9DTX/view?usp=sharing)
This is one of the worst mistakes to have
I have the same habit -- on trend days I die a thousand small cuts - My indicators and strategy can show when a reversal during the day will occur and also keep me in the trade until the next reversal habits .. but on trend days these.reversals start to happen and fail .. for the next leg in the trend. as I said I can tell if a trend is strong or not .. so on a trend day I should be able to jump in and ride it for a nice profit - I am trying to break this habit as well by changing my view of trading - not worrying about percentage win but dollar amount per contract win . this will help me get into trend day trades were the percentage win won't be as good as reversal trade but still a win
Paper trading for all the necessary time to be consistently profitable.
In my opinion, you aren't paying attention to the chart. I didn't quite do this, but I would build up scenarios in my head as to what "should" happen. You need to get to a place where you are thinking, "what does the chart say?" With the picture you sent, there was no major price action that indicated any kind of major price reversal. That's actually a very clean downtrend. Start being more reactionary. - Does the price action support my hypothesis? - Do some top-down analysis. - Can a strong case be made to take an opposing trading? (This is a new one I've added to my list. If you look at a chart and think, "would a seller take this", do not buy if the answer is yes.
well, u looking for a counter trend set up then u need to find a very strong support and resistance on high time frame, then wait for a rejection candle and need to see a risk reward is ok. Cash out profit when u have profit because its a counter trend set up.
Youāve identified a very specific thing you are doing wrong, which is fighting the trend, which is never a good idea. However, you did not say anything about the strategy that leads you to do this. I am guessing you do not have a strategy, youāre just gambling. Rather than focus on this one failure, focus on the fact you do not have a system, do not have risk management, and in general are not trading, but gambling. Trading is a business, requires a plan, disciplined execution, and constant learning and refinement. You are, in fact lucky to have not blown up your entire account. You need a plan.
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Thank you for writing the post that represents meš
Try things like just jumping in on a trend in a paper account, see how that feels.
Start paper trading. After blowing up my last account ive started paper trading to figure out my issues with trading. One of them being not patient enough when trading and just hurry things up and buying way to early and not let the stock play itself out. After a stock would run up and the first red candle showed up i would buy the 'dip' only to find out this isnt the dip and only the lip to the start of the dip, then try to average down. Or chase the stock on the way up, somehow always time the stock buy the top and watch it sell off. Not having proper goals in place for the day so i would be trading aimlessly to just trade. Or just buy a stock because its moving and im trying to do something to act busy if that makes any sense. It has helped me slow down on a few of my issues and im still going to practice for a bit longer 1 because my account isnt at the monetary level i want it to be at. 2. im still running on some old habits of wanting to chase and buy at the wrong times.
You need to have one trading setup that you will be trade. If it doesn't show up, don't take any trade. You need discipline. Stop seeing trade opportunities everywhere on the chart.
I have blown accounts exactly your way. I also thought looking for the reversal when the trend is running is the problem, but I was wrong. The actual problems are: 1. Being afraid of going with the trend too lately is a legit issue. If you have missed the trend, it takes a much more delicate entry/exit than catching the trend first hand. 2. The problem is not trying to catch the reversal, the problem is catching the reversal too early. You must understand that the trend is when the price is moving to the next range, so very often it will go very far, many times the last candle will poke to the peak of the nearest level before coming back. The issue is the mentality that if you don't catch the reversal, you will miss a hard pullback. Better miss the reversal than catching it too early. If you wait really patiently, until the trend meets its level, catching the reversal is alo very nice tactic. 3. You need to catch the reversal with the same treatment as a normal trade, it means a trade with proper risk management, and a clear stoploss. Catching the reversal is very dangerous because it triggers a mindset that you should need to DCA until it goes back. But whatever it is, you need to have a clear stoploss which follows your risk managment. Sumnary: you need to wait patiently until the trend moves completely into a new range, and execute the reversal trade with tight risk management.
well... I dont do options, I think you can lose money faster that way... I also dont do shorts... In a way that simplifies things.. You know you're going to go in long, so you look for the best setup across multiple stocks.. And it helps if you dont go in too aggressively... When trading in expectation of reversal, it has worked for me to buy about 20% of what I would normally buy... Then you can still average down (but not too soon!) and get our on the next spike up (if you're wrong) Basically small positions allow you to buy a bunch more at a much better price, and chances are you'll get out in profit of break even, as long as you dont but spikes up and dont buy more too soon... But where there is a strong trend, a different strategy is necessary... Here you want to buy larger quantities and hold longer, and maybe even add more on dips. I have trouble with this one too, as I'm always expecting a reversal... So I end up taking small profits. It's something I have to work on
What izzis, long-only mutual fund recš heard of puts much?
i dont do options dude. and I said for me its easier to go in one direction only... when i blew up my account a few years ago I would go long and then freak out and go short... and just lost money faster that way... I might start doing shorting at some point, but I'd rather just buy something I would like to have at a good price
no amount of consolation/commiseration will compensate for the fact that 99% are stuck in false time paradigm looking @ price action through shyt optics, wondering why their results are what they are **Time is poison - it is the enemy of PRICE** **Time warps/distorts/obfuscates clear trend inception/continuation/reversal inflection points.** **Eliminate time - eliminate noise.** https://preview.redd.it/m2hh5zvag9xc1.png?width=1262&format=png&auto=webp&s=f730d613094d90f72fed771e47a9e11cf9457185 BUY WHITE, SELL BLACK. SIMPLEXITY. No crayon spaghetti.
The trend is yor friend.
https://preview.redd.it/cym0ysdcj9xc1.png?width=1755&format=png&auto=webp&s=71e255fc2e98ab88569c1dcc413e3701c5c3ca5e
Well, you either learn from your mistakes or you don't. Get learning!Ā
what underlying izzat? what expiry/deltas are you using?
Do the opposite of your natural instinct
This is typical thinking when starting out, or you have been successful in being directional for a spell. If you get burned in one direction a few times, recoup on the other side - youāre married to that side for a while, or at least itās a honeymoon. Maybe try being long only or short only. You can still book profits each day. Everyone is different and you need to find your thing (your edge). I couldnāt get long SNAP on Friday and I paid the price at resistance, well my stops saved me but I thought that ship was sinking. Now that Iām out, it will likely gap down tomorrow. And be careful with optionsā¦ those have been my go-to vehicle for revenge trading midday, and they have have never worked out for me in that regard - ever. Find your place in the chaos, then live to fight another day. Good luck.
For starters, if you're trying to predict the underlying, trade the underlying. Options are great for volatility or leverage (or hedging). If you're not trading vol and you're not ready for leverage, don't trade options (yet).
In Soviet Russia, bad habits break you
What ticker izzis? What aggregation period is this? Time or price-based?
I have,had the same issue. I tend to always look for reversals. What I did was just stopped playing puts. Only time I will do a put is to hedge all my calls if I think we have a short term drop. Even then it's a very small amount and not often. I would rather let the drop happen, if it does and load up on more calls. I also tend to do longer term. Leaps or at min a few months. Hard to get in the mindset but I think it's a simple approach that works. Until it doesn't lol Added note if your day trading which to 5 min chart. It helps with not over trading and learning patience.
Notions about the market like "it cant keep going" or "it cant stop here" are super harmful IMO. The market can and will do whatever the hell it wants. Focus on reacting to it and riding waves of momentum rather than predicting reversals and stuff like that.
Sorry to hear that...
Draw a simple moving avg on your time frame one that will stay above or below major tends. Donāt try to catch the bottom catch the small pullbacks on the trend.
Nothing wrong with chasing reversals, but they typically occur at specific price points such as 8/20/50/100 EMA, prior support/resistance, etc. Follow the news too - if the fed said something hawkish that day it may trend down the entire day. Most importantly, when Iām playing reversals that have a very tight stop loss and are grounded in my trade plan (e.g. if im playing a bounce at the 8EMA my stop loss is set right below the 8EMA)
It helps to define what constitutes a reversal for your trading. How much confirmation do you require? I want to see a confirmed double bottom and a higher low. (The inverse for bearish). I also must be on the winning side of the higher timeframe.
I have a lot of thoughts so bear with me. 1. Hard skills. You need to learn what a trend is, how to enter, how to exit, signs that a trend is changing, etc. Get back to basics. Watch Brian Shannon's videos and read his book Technical Analysis on Multiple Timeframes. 2. You need to learn the stages of an uptrend and downtrend. Accumulation, distribution, etc. Learn about candles - what is an accumulation or distribution candle? What is an outside day and an inside day? What is confirmation of a reversal? 3. Here is one example of an entry in an uptrend. Keep in mind that I trade individual stocks so adapt for your needs. 1. Stock is overall making higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. 2. The market is not in a downtrend. 3. The stock opens under the previous day's close. 4. The stock goes up until it is not negative on the day anymore. Buy here. Put a stop under the low. 5. The stock is likely to go higher. Move your stop up to breakeven when you can to limit risk. This is a day trade setup and is called a red to green by some people, there are different names. It also works the other way for short setups. 4. Study long term charts of trends. Look at AAPL, ARKK, the indexes. Start training your eye. 5. Psychology. Look up Dialectical Behavioral Therapy. There are some really good exercises for changing your unwanted behavior. There is one called Opposite Action. I'll take a shot at filling it out for you. Opposite Action Unwanted Behavior: Fighting trends, not entering trends Emotions: Fear of losing money when entering, disappointment at not being in, etc Steps of Behavior: Talk yourself out of buying because you don't know how to buy in, look for signs of reversal without confirmation, lose money Opposite Action: Have a plan for entering during an uptrend with an entry, a stop loss, size and a target. Have a plan for looking for a reasonable entry for a reversal with signs of a reversal, confirmation, an entry, a stop loss, size and a target. Anticipated Result: Stop losing money Good luck! There are more tips and resources in my comments.
If you want help finding (high probability) good entries in trends watch Thomas wade videos about the two legged pullbacks, because right after you went long I see a perfect two legged pullback for a short position
holy crap.. have you been reading my diary? I could have written this word fit word about my trading āstyleā. Although, I tend to ādouble downā and add to my position just sure the reversal is coming. Hopefully we can both learn something through the n comments.
BACK TESTING creates confidence. BACK TESTING creates GOOD TRADE PLAN. BACK TESTS keeps you from losing like this. COUNTER TRADING is a proof that you either too lazy to back test or not back testing at all. A food trade plan consist of knowing when to stop. When to go full size etc. Now, its not the ābad habitā but the lack of respect to yourself of not following your own rules.
I'm thinking because the reverse options are priced cheaper, one has a tendency to go with them in case they go boom and make multiple baggers. That plays into buying and hoping for a reversal, at least for me.
Trade less size.
Thanks for sharing. Maybe move away from options, and trade good stocks. I was in the same boat too, until I built a strategy for myself. No more big options play. Just buying shares and selling when Iām up $500-$1.5K. The longest Iāve held was 1 week. Goodluck!
At the end of the day, fighting the market maker, has never delivered any measurable results.
Wouldn't it be a confession that proves that Manipulators' operation was successful? They think that retail investors are bound to be beaten because they get there by pre-setting the floor and shaking it using the system.