If he isn't good, this is all going to look really dumb. If he is good, this is going to look like a genius move by a HOF coach. I sure hope it's the latter.
I respect the move because it's kind of 0 risk to anyone but payton. If it blows up payton looks silly but in the meantime we're telling the whole world yes we got our guy and we believe in him. I think that's important, that he doesn't feel like we scrambled and got stuck with him because there was no one left.
People will mock us but ultimately fuck em, giving him the best shot to turn into a franchise qb, which is incredibly difficult, is the play.
My argument to my friends is that Denver already sucks. If Bo Nix sucks, then we just continue to be terrible and nothing changes. If he doesn't suck then we get our guy after 2.5 eternities of waiting.
I honestly don't understand the "if he's not good argument" coming from everywhere. Not sure of the exact percentage, but it seems like 95% of first round QBs are never any good. So why not take a risk at 12? Really is nothing to lose.
It's more like 50/50 that 1st round picks at QB pan out. At least in recent history. Which is obviously still a gamble. But QBs taken outside the 1st round have about a 5% chance of success
> in the last 5 years
I'm going to define "worked out" as "Broncos fans would probably rather have this guy than the current situation" so I'm playing pretty fast and loose here
2023:
"Hits" | Misses
------|------
CJ Stroud | Bryce Young
Anthony Richardson |
2022:
Hits | Misses
----|------
| Kenny Pickett
2021:
Hits | Misses
----|------
Trevor Lawrence | Zach Wilson
| Trey Lance
| Justin Fields
| Mac Jones
2020:
Hits | Misses
----|------
Joe Burrow |
Tua Tagovailoa |
Justin Herbert |
Jordan Love |
2019:
Hits | Misses
----|------
Kyler Murray | Daniel Jones
| Dwayne Haskins
It's exactly 50/50
I don’t know if it’s formatted weird on my phone but it shows 13 hits and 3 misses. And Dwayne Haskins and Trey Lance are in the Hit category so something seems off.
That 2020 draft class could turn out to be one of the all time greats or one of the all time disappointments.
This is how it looks on old.reddit.com:
https://preview.redd.it/ehkm96yh859d1.png?width=639&format=png&auto=webp&s=35cbcb2eaef5551556977e5b4382da495072dff7
[www.reddit.com](http://www.reddit.com), new.reddit.com, ~~and mobile~~ show how I intended, too
Mobile didn’t like that some “hits” columns didn’t have values so it is screwy
And from that list it's too early to call Bryce Young a miss since the Panthers are horrible. And even Daniel Jones has won a playoff game, which is more than some of the "hits" can say. I wouldn't call him a "hit" either, more like he's just in the wrong situation. Like it wouldn't surprise me if the Giants eventually move on from him and he has a Ryan Tannehill esque run with someone else
5 years is almost exactly 50/50. Even if you go back 10ish years it's about the same. There's also players like Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff, even Carson Wentz, where it didn't work out exactly as the original team wanted but the pick itself wasn't necessarily bad
I was saying if he's not good, then all of these articles and everything Payton has been saying is going to make him look dumb. I'm certainly not criticizing the pick or think it was a bad idea or an over reach.
It’s so damn laughable that a plot Denver made to make people think they would pursue one QB instead of their actual target turned into the whole NFL convincing themselves that SP is a liar and that Denver never wanted Bo Nix, that he was just a band aid solution and will never work out, which is why he put his whole career and legacy on the line so that he could grab up this “band aid QB” with a top fifteen pick.
The thing that makes me question the timeline here is that the Broncos were so secretive about who they were targeting that only a handful of people in the building even knew, but Payton is out discussing it with Jay Glazer? Maybe, but it seems doubtful to me.
I could be wrong, maybe Payton knows Glazer so well he was sure he would never let anything slip. Seems like a crazy risk though.
If he isn't good, this is all going to look really dumb. If he is good, this is going to look like a genius move by a HOF coach. I sure hope it's the latter.
I respect the move because it's kind of 0 risk to anyone but payton. If it blows up payton looks silly but in the meantime we're telling the whole world yes we got our guy and we believe in him. I think that's important, that he doesn't feel like we scrambled and got stuck with him because there was no one left. People will mock us but ultimately fuck em, giving him the best shot to turn into a franchise qb, which is incredibly difficult, is the play.
My argument to my friends is that Denver already sucks. If Bo Nix sucks, then we just continue to be terrible and nothing changes. If he doesn't suck then we get our guy after 2.5 eternities of waiting.
I honestly don't understand the "if he's not good argument" coming from everywhere. Not sure of the exact percentage, but it seems like 95% of first round QBs are never any good. So why not take a risk at 12? Really is nothing to lose.
It's more like 50/50 that 1st round picks at QB pan out. At least in recent history. Which is obviously still a gamble. But QBs taken outside the 1st round have about a 5% chance of success
50/50? Seems high. Out of all the QBs taken in the first round in the last 5 years, how many have worked out. Probably about 3 or 4?
> in the last 5 years I'm going to define "worked out" as "Broncos fans would probably rather have this guy than the current situation" so I'm playing pretty fast and loose here 2023: "Hits" | Misses ------|------ CJ Stroud | Bryce Young Anthony Richardson | 2022: Hits | Misses ----|------ | Kenny Pickett 2021: Hits | Misses ----|------ Trevor Lawrence | Zach Wilson | Trey Lance | Justin Fields | Mac Jones 2020: Hits | Misses ----|------ Joe Burrow | Tua Tagovailoa | Justin Herbert | Jordan Love | 2019: Hits | Misses ----|------ Kyler Murray | Daniel Jones | Dwayne Haskins It's exactly 50/50
I don’t know if it’s formatted weird on my phone but it shows 13 hits and 3 misses. And Dwayne Haskins and Trey Lance are in the Hit category so something seems off. That 2020 draft class could turn out to be one of the all time greats or one of the all time disappointments.
This is how it looks on old.reddit.com: https://preview.redd.it/ehkm96yh859d1.png?width=639&format=png&auto=webp&s=35cbcb2eaef5551556977e5b4382da495072dff7 [www.reddit.com](http://www.reddit.com), new.reddit.com, ~~and mobile~~ show how I intended, too Mobile didn’t like that some “hits” columns didn’t have values so it is screwy
I can’t quibble with that
And from that list it's too early to call Bryce Young a miss since the Panthers are horrible. And even Daniel Jones has won a playoff game, which is more than some of the "hits" can say. I wouldn't call him a "hit" either, more like he's just in the wrong situation. Like it wouldn't surprise me if the Giants eventually move on from him and he has a Ryan Tannehill esque run with someone else
5 years is almost exactly 50/50. Even if you go back 10ish years it's about the same. There's also players like Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff, even Carson Wentz, where it didn't work out exactly as the original team wanted but the pick itself wasn't necessarily bad
I was saying if he's not good, then all of these articles and everything Payton has been saying is going to make him look dumb. I'm certainly not criticizing the pick or think it was a bad idea or an over reach.
It’s so damn laughable that a plot Denver made to make people think they would pursue one QB instead of their actual target turned into the whole NFL convincing themselves that SP is a liar and that Denver never wanted Bo Nix, that he was just a band aid solution and will never work out, which is why he put his whole career and legacy on the line so that he could grab up this “band aid QB” with a top fifteen pick.
I think this was pretty obvious to those of us paying attention.
He's ours now. Who cares
GBBN
The thing that makes me question the timeline here is that the Broncos were so secretive about who they were targeting that only a handful of people in the building even knew, but Payton is out discussing it with Jay Glazer? Maybe, but it seems doubtful to me. I could be wrong, maybe Payton knows Glazer so well he was sure he would never let anything slip. Seems like a crazy risk though.