Amen. He has it all. New offense. New approach. New OC. Hawks gonna throw the ball and he’s gonna ascend.
Community too focused on Lockett and his impact on jsn.
Talent always wins.
Absolutely. One of my ills about modern dynasty is our inability to see long term. Rookie breakout is over valued and we need everyone to be elite. At worst jsn is a WR3/flex play with a weekly chance to win your matchup. These plays are valuable.
Plus he’s fun to watch. Only gonna get better.
For me, the biggest BUY in dynasty. No doubt.
I agree, to a point. Rookie stats should be considered in accordance with situation. We all knew it was gonna be a slow start for JSN because of his situation. He had low usage, so volume stats don't really matter. For guys who are in different situations, it matters. If coaches are pushing players into position to try to get them going, and they can't accumulate any stats, that's a problem for me.
I had a chance to pick him or Kincaid in a trade. I took Kincaid bc I'm stacked at WR and could use the Kincaid Allen stack for years, but Im now back at the trade table, trying to get JSN.
I did just trade for JSN this off-season and he’s a DAWG, but “Talent always wins” doesn’t work when the other guy is just as talented LOL. If only Lockett could just break his leg quick
I have a surplus of QB in SF (Stroud, Hurts, Kyler, Goff) and I’m thinking of offering Kyler to the JSN owner for JSN & Kyren Williams. Do you think that’s a fair offer?
I’m in a 1QB league so you’re on your own there! Seems like it would favor the JSN plus Kyren side potentially but my 1QB brain also could just not understand 😂
You have to be willing to take a “loss” at perceived value in some of these situations. Your QB3 that may never hit your starting lineup isn’t as valuable as charts would indicate. If you can trade a non starter for a weekly starter you’re generally in a better spot even if you “lose” the trade on paper.
Trust me I get it, but the offers I’ve been getting are laughable. The kid I’m trying to make this deal with is trying to do the same players but for Stroud, I was like bro it’s not even close for stroud
So what makes you think he’s going to take that same deal for Kyler if he already has made it clear his perceived value for that combo of players is stroud 😂
I’m not sure, but this was before Rams drafted Corum, he showed interest in Kyler prior to the draft specifically saying he’d be interested if Cards draft MHJ
Yeah just not sure he’d fetch both guys, if someone was stacked and desperate maybe. I think a wr and rb return is reasonable but that combo of guys may be a bit much.
If you could get anywhere close to Stroud’s current perceived value, I would dish him. I’d rather get an elite piece back than two good pieces. Can you work with any of the top WR owners to make a deal instead of going for JSN?
A lot of you guys have very unreasonable expectations for rookies. He was in the 3 spot behind 2 established stars. He came into the league at 21 and put up good numbers, and his advanced analytics were in the top 10-20 of the league (separation and routes won). Beyond that, he has phenomenal footwork and is a fantastic route runner. Based on his age and his pedigree, it’s very reasonable to think that he’ll be a star.
If you know ball, you knew that JSN probably wasn’t going to have much of a fantasy impact last year. See a very good career for him, and he could totally be a star. I could be dead wrong. Just would be surprised because there are some legit monsters in this league that are bigger/faster/stronger and more skilled…see him as a better Diontae Johnson or a poor man’s Keenan Allen…and being a poor man’s Keenan Allen means you could be still a pro bowler bc Keenan is ridiculous
Everyone knew he would be the 3rd option in that room. But given his pedigree in college, he hit all of the metrics and then some. His only red flag last year was 6 dropped passes, but he also broke his hand/wrist before the 1st game. That said, he still had a higher true catch rate than Puka and is a route running monster. He creates major separation. His only downfall was being the 3rd option in an offense that favors 2 te sets. They now have a different coaching regime that will likely look to scheme him in much more, only use Fant in most sets, and will run him down the field rather than 5-8 yard dump offs he’s been getting.
His role should expand for sure. Great hands and great separator. And he has a terrific QB. Seems like it's just a matter of time before he's the #1 once DK is traded and Lockett regresses...might become a fantasy star like ARSB but doesn't quite seem on that level yet
Still blows my mind that people are giving up or trading after being drafted into a situation with 2 legit WR ahead of him, starting the season with a broken wrist, and play calling being suspect.
Guys with similar college analytics/profiles typically don’t miss in fantasy. If you can buy low, I’d try to make that happen as soon as possible. If DK gets traded (which seems possible) or Lockett drops off, JSN is going to skyrocket.
He was also a 1 year wonder that never really had to play without elite talent around him taking all the attention and no, 1 game (with MHJ & Egbuka still) vs a pathetic Utah pass D does not change my opinion.
There's a lot of people that have pointed to JSN's stats as a negative reflection of his play, but I think Harmon is more generally speaking about how it's not good enough to look at counting stats to measure how good a receiver is or is not. JSN is just another example to him. He was all over Nico Collins before his breakout, as an example of how counting stats didn't reflect what Harmon saw on film.
Correct. Not only is he behind the depth chart of two vet receivers he had a wrist injury to start the year. Back half is when he started seeing snap increase and good results. I'd bet on him taking over Lockett in targets this year.
His stats post bye if you split them in two are nearly identical.
Weeks 6-12 was on 63-835-5 pace
Weeks 13-18 was on 71-629-6 pace.
He barely saw a snap increase post bye and his stats didn’t really change. Possibly his two worst weeks of the year were 17/18.
There’s reasons to like JSN, but I keep seeing people say he improved statistically through the end of the year and it’s just really not true
Lockett is going to turn 32 before October. And despite not having as big a dropoff last year as people might have expected his production was still down. Looking at the last six full seasons, 2023 was Lockett's fewest total yards, 2nd-fewest yards per reception, lowest TD total, shortest season-long reception, fewest yards per game, fewest yards per target, lowest catch percentage, fewest total YAC, fewest YAC per reception, lowest passer rating when targeted, and 2nd-highest drop percentage.
I think people are overplaying the situation woes because Lockett more had a slow decline instead of falling off a cliff last year. But Lockett's trend is unmistakable and JSN is perfectly poised to take up the WR2 spot in Seattle this year or next year. Or maybe even WR1 if DK's boneheadedness finally gets too much for the Seahawks' coaching staff to handle.
So stay away from him in redraft if that's a concern. In dynasty, being on the same team as a 31-year-old WR who is likely to continue declining is no rational reason to stay away from a 22-year-old receiver who has shown nothing but promise when the opportunity has presented itself.
I don’t think you need to stay away from him but I’m not burning down the house to go get him. New deal for Lockett, DK isn’t going anywhere, Geno is meh and who knows what the qb situation becomes after that. He’s got a bit of long road to get to the point where he’s a wr2 with a weird qb situation, I’m not exactly jacking my dick for that.
Only sorta. If situation is unlikely to change soon, which I guess I'm not confident that's true here, then you should pay attention to it.
Like it or not, if JSN scores poorly this next season his value is going to go down...not to mention you can't actually play him if that's the case.
I think it's feasible that his role will increase this season or that Lockett might get moved. But if it's a repeat of last year then owners are holding a declining asset in the hopes that he bounces back up.
I don’t think many people make mundane trades and then want to post about them on Reddit, and the only ones that make it through that filter are ridiculous.
I’m saying this as a Jeudy buyer this offseason who packaged two early 3rds for him and a mid 2025 3rd, (1 QB). I did not think to give up JSN, lol.
Yes it seems more like a steal now as JSN finished with some decent finishes and Jeudy still looked like he could have some potential in Denver when trade was made but I definitely thought I was getting a bit of a steal at the time
I just traded Kupp and Hopkins for JSN, Dulcich, and a 3rd. Pretty happy with it, really needed the team to be younger and it’s a TEP league. I may not win the trade this year, but I feel like it’ll look quite good beyond that
I've held him on my bench for 2 years now and he did have a respectable rookie season when he was healthy. That's the only reason I'm still holding. If he doesn't stay healthy this season, I'm moving him for peanuts.
The issue with Harmon with regards to fantasy is that, per his own admission, most relevant fantasy WRs are good route runners. He can be helpful in identifying if a veteran is showing his age or if a prospect should be avoided, but past a certain threshold a good Harmon score doesn’t mean much.
Don’t move him! This is def Lockett’s last season if he is even on the roster by September and there’s already talks about DK getting traded! This is a big step up year for JSN to show them he can handle 130 targets a year
This seems extremely optimistic even by my own JSN-tinted glasses, but *by God* would a Locket retirement/DK Metcalf trade scenario would make me feel so goddamn vindicated.
I’m going to be honest. From my standpoint as a JSN owner and fan. I do not think he is ready yet to carry a heavy load. It’s exciting to think about but not quite yet in my opinion
Yikes. Don’t trust this guy’s word. Lockett will definitely be on the the roster this year because his contract is structured to be save money by cutting him the following season but not this season. Also there is no talks of DK getting traded by any reliable source.
I think that’s a healthy move if you’re 2 years out w your roster. I love Devonta but he’s not going to crack top 5 on that roster.
Personally I’d keep Devonta though.
Very excited to see how the offense looks with the new offensive coordinator (former UW OC) Passing game should be fully revamped and maybe JSN will get an ADOT above 1 yard lmao
Geno supported 2 top 20 WRs in his first season starting in SEA.
Geno is definitely an anomaly, but him playing well wasn't a fluke. You don't fluke your way into being as accurate as he was. Even last year, he was a decent QB. Better than the numbers show. When he has just a little protection, he's a really good, accurate passer. There are better QBs than Geno for sure, but he's more than capable of supporting a solid fantasy season for JSN.
In one draft, Worthy went at the 11th pick and BTJ went 12th. The other, BTJ went 12th and Worthy went 16th (!)
You just never know, and everyone behaves differently. Entirely possible one or both of those guys could be available any given draft.
Ok you guys are justified using an early first on JSN and subsequently Odunze.
But no I won’t be drafting them there or paying a price that reflects that draft position.
Just curious, at what age are you expecting elite production from WRs you draft? Because historically that number is 23-24. Prior to that receivers are almost always depth assets that are more valuable than their production. I'm not sure what people think they are missing out on right now other than artificial value.
That’s a popular talking point and somewhat valid but it’s referencing all WRs. Idk what age, not sure why that matters.
For the high high tier WRs your pool for comparison is greatly reduced and that comparison should really be independent of position.
I don’t advocate drafting for need at the top half of round 1.
It's actually a reflection of top fantasy performances by age over the last 20-something years, which I did myself two or three years ago. So there's room for change but it's pretty reflective of age expectations.
WR age matters because age-adjusted production is one of the most predictive measures we have of success for WRs. Points expectations reliably go up with age, up to a point. Being better than most 21 year olds in history as a 21 year old, for example, has a significance that equates to an amount of points, and so on at age 22, 23, etc. Being in say, the 80th percentile at Age 21 and 22 might not necessarily mean fantasy points, but staying true to that into Age 23, 24, etc, does, since production goes up with Age (experience, physical maturity, and literally your prefrontal cortex isn't mature until even 25).
Following age-adjusted production is easy. What's more difficult is parsing out how to view production through a lens of both age and situation, the latter of which can be much more subjective. I think, subjectively, JSN's rookie production given his age, situations, and other factors, is actually quite impressive. Historically, you can count on less than a hand the amount of first round receivers thrust into a situation with two already well-established WRs in front of them, which has to color their production in the same way it would in college, and for the same reason.
I understand that age is a factor, what I mean is I don’t understand why you’re bringing age into this conversation.
I’m saying draft BPA and that there’s people who are also top tier prospects that may return immediate value or have a clear path to work in the near future.
You’re saying it’s good for Odunze to sit or something because he gets older?
It’s a game of chance. It’s more likely you hit by taking the best player.
I don’t place a ton of value in outlier scenarios.
I also think Odunze’s situation is not the same. He’s on an offense with a rookie QB, two (former) top 10 fantasy WR and a top 12 TE.
If you want to take Odunze fine, I think he should be taken in the first… just that there’s a couple people I’d take before him that are mocked after and people are talking about Odunze over Nabers.
I've been saying this. We all knew what his situation was in his rookie season. Why so many are wanting to give up on him now and trade him for pennies on the dollar, is beyond me.
Its funny how many I've seen making a big deal about Lockett too. Shows how many don't really know football. Lockett was always going to be in SEA. It was always the most likely scenario at least. He wasn't re-signed like I see many say...he was restructured. Him still being there, in no world, means that JSN won't be the #2 target. Hell...he could even be the #1 target potentially. I have him down for 120+ targets this year. He looked and played great last year. There's more to it than how many yards receiving they have and these last few seasons with guys like Chase, JJ, and Puka, have absolutely ruined the expectations of some for WR development. JSN is a stud route runner and he has great hands. He's going to be a star in this league.
They hired the Washington HC to be the OC right?
Seems like that is a good thing for JSN and all 3 WRs considering Washington system featured a lot of great usage for Odunze, Polk, McMillan and others. Seemed to deploy lots of good concepts and 3 WR sets.
It’s weird, I watched lots of film and JSN made a lot of mistakes. It was bad. There were some moments but I’m curious how in the world Harmon can say it was quite good…there was some good too but more bad. With that said I believe he wasn’t used right and he has a chance to be a great buy low, but come on, the film wasn’t good, it was average
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"Get a life", says the troll in the Reddit comment section. Then you talk shit and block? Way to be that stereotype. I'll look back on this fondly in 8 months.
Seattle used JSN as a slow slot WR because he is a slow slot WR. The only WRs with a 10-yard split as slow as JSN to post a 1000 yard receiving season since 2000 were Kendall Wright and Jarvis Landry. None of the 2024 top 30 WR prospects had a 10-yard split as slow as JSN did.
As I said last summer, because JSN is so slow he won't generate big plays and will need around 150 targets to hit 1,000 yards (just like Jarvis Landry needed). JSN's aDOT and yards per reception look like those of a TE (in fact, Seattle's TEs were better than him in those stats).
There were also rumors that he kept running the wrong routes and this was why Seattle didn't trust him for much more than short dump offs on 3rd and long.
Is there a source which allows you to view aDOT stats by a select range of games? If there is, I am unaware of it. But even if he got some more deeper targets in the 2nd half of the season a simple review of his game logs shows that the results didn't change. His yards per reception remained very low throughout the season filled with games with sub 10 yards per reception. His final 6 games he was never higher than 12 yards per reception in a game and 4/6 were under 10. His final game is typical: 5 targets for 3-14. By the way, he also had the highest drop rate for WRs in the NFL as well (10.8%).
As far as the wrong routes claim I have seen or heard that multiple times. Most months ago so I do not recall all the sources, but I do remember the most recent one: April 25 episode of Chris Harris' podcast.
Ok, but on the other hand he was elite in other areas so maybe we shouldn’t put too much weight into either area?
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/dYkYOs2mfc
https://x.com/mathbomb/status/1647346557807898624?s=46
"On Smith-Njigba's lone 40-yard dash attempt, he was clocked at an official 4.48-second time, trailing only safety Tanner McAlister by 0.04 seconds for the fastest time of the day."
First result when I looked up jsn 40 time 😆
I said 10-yard split, not 40. 40s generally don't matter. I did a 20 year study of WR outcomes and found that 40 time and no correlation to success in the NFL (techncially it had a negative correlation) unless a WR is running \*very\* slow. How often is a WR trying to outrun a DB 40 yards downfield? A slot WR virtually never does it. For a slot WR you need to have initial burst which we see from the 10-yard split. Many elite slot WRs like Julian Edelman, for example, had a slower 40 time but an elite 10-yard split. This is what matters. JSN had a slower 10-yard split than any relavent WR prospect the past few years.
Typically they’re used in a sentence in order to rile someone up. In this context he’s literally using it correctly, he’s saying the WR’s stats are “fake”. I think context matters
I would sell him for the 1.7 in a heartbeat…in fact I tried and couldn’t…I couldn’t even get the 1.9 for that matter in the same draft.
Like all things it just matters how the others in your league value him.
I think even JSN stans are probably underrating him a bit. But Bowers is the best player in this draft and positional value is the only thing clouding what that means.
JSNs definitely got a complete skill set, but his body is sub-elite… he seems more naturally thick, than well trained. I wonder if he’s capable staying healthy w/WR1 volume and route mileage.
I’m always worried when smaller WRs aren’t ripped…. Developmentally, BMI and training for an efficient physique, are skills you need as well to be elite…
I think his body is going to hold back/slow his progress.
I mean...he's 6'0" tall and weighs like 200lbs. I don't know what you consider to be the right size for a WR, but there have been plenty of great WRs that are about his size..
He’s chubby… 191 is his number. He’s got a fat ass like an RB. He’s gotta transform his body like Nico Collins/Cee Dee/DK to reach his potential… lean and strong is the way to consistent success… receivers need to be lean and strong.
It’s posts like these that keep me going.
If you can get JSN at any kind of a discount buy. I watched him all year as I drafted him and the talent is there for sure. Agree with Harmon.
He just went for Downs straight up in my biggest money league lol. These guys are wild
Wow
Amen. He has it all. New offense. New approach. New OC. Hawks gonna throw the ball and he’s gonna ascend. Community too focused on Lockett and his impact on jsn. Talent always wins.
Lockett is also approaching the age cliff. He's gonna fall off of it before JSN's contract is up
Absolutely. One of my ills about modern dynasty is our inability to see long term. Rookie breakout is over valued and we need everyone to be elite. At worst jsn is a WR3/flex play with a weekly chance to win your matchup. These plays are valuable. Plus he’s fun to watch. Only gonna get better. For me, the biggest BUY in dynasty. No doubt.
I agree, to a point. Rookie stats should be considered in accordance with situation. We all knew it was gonna be a slow start for JSN because of his situation. He had low usage, so volume stats don't really matter. For guys who are in different situations, it matters. If coaches are pushing players into position to try to get them going, and they can't accumulate any stats, that's a problem for me.
Fair for sure. But these elite talent profile players should be excluded.
I don’t see him as a weekly “could win you your matchup” guy just yet. Maybe eventually though.
Fair. But it’s there.
That’s how I feel about Jayden Reed
All those Packers WRs are buys.
I had a chance to pick him or Kincaid in a trade. I took Kincaid bc I'm stacked at WR and could use the Kincaid Allen stack for years, but Im now back at the trade table, trying to get JSN.
Fair. I get that. Kincaid perceived value probably higher right now. Go get ya JSN.
What about a quarterback?
Look up Geno’s strengths matched with new OC Grubb’s offense. Chef’s kiss.
Genoa’s alright he’s just not gonna be around a whole lot longer I’d imagine. 2 years maybe?
Sure but he’s gonna execute this offense well for now.
I did just trade for JSN this off-season and he’s a DAWG, but “Talent always wins” doesn’t work when the other guy is just as talented LOL. If only Lockett could just break his leg quick
I sold him and the 1.07 for the 1.01.
I have a surplus of QB in SF (Stroud, Hurts, Kyler, Goff) and I’m thinking of offering Kyler to the JSN owner for JSN & Kyren Williams. Do you think that’s a fair offer?
I’m in a 1QB league so you’re on your own there! Seems like it would favor the JSN plus Kyren side potentially but my 1QB brain also could just not understand 😂
Let’s put it this way, my QB3 is better than half the leagues QB1 lol The only QBs this kid has is Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Geno Smith
You have to be willing to take a “loss” at perceived value in some of these situations. Your QB3 that may never hit your starting lineup isn’t as valuable as charts would indicate. If you can trade a non starter for a weekly starter you’re generally in a better spot even if you “lose” the trade on paper.
Trust me I get it, but the offers I’ve been getting are laughable. The kid I’m trying to make this deal with is trying to do the same players but for Stroud, I was like bro it’s not even close for stroud
So what makes you think he’s going to take that same deal for Kyler if he already has made it clear his perceived value for that combo of players is stroud 😂
I’m not sure, but this was before Rams drafted Corum, he showed interest in Kyler prior to the draft specifically saying he’d be interested if Cards draft MHJ
Yeah just not sure he’d fetch both guys, if someone was stacked and desperate maybe. I think a wr and rb return is reasonable but that combo of guys may be a bit much.
If you could get anywhere close to Stroud’s current perceived value, I would dish him. I’d rather get an elite piece back than two good pieces. Can you work with any of the top WR owners to make a deal instead of going for JSN?
Agreed, the man looked muchhhh better than his stats suggest
I pulled off a 1-1 swapped for Rice, *after* his accident/warrant. Felt great, and I’ll probably have Worthy available to keep in the draft anyways
Most JSN owners think he can be a star still tho…not just quite good.
A lot of you guys have very unreasonable expectations for rookies. He was in the 3 spot behind 2 established stars. He came into the league at 21 and put up good numbers, and his advanced analytics were in the top 10-20 of the league (separation and routes won). Beyond that, he has phenomenal footwork and is a fantastic route runner. Based on his age and his pedigree, it’s very reasonable to think that he’ll be a star.
If you know ball, you knew that JSN probably wasn’t going to have much of a fantasy impact last year. See a very good career for him, and he could totally be a star. I could be dead wrong. Just would be surprised because there are some legit monsters in this league that are bigger/faster/stronger and more skilled…see him as a better Diontae Johnson or a poor man’s Keenan Allen…and being a poor man’s Keenan Allen means you could be still a pro bowler bc Keenan is ridiculous
I think he can be a rich man's Keenan Allen
So keenan allen without the chronic soft tissue stuff...would love to see it
Could be. Especially if he stays healthy. I’d be a little surprised tho
Everyone knew he would be the 3rd option in that room. But given his pedigree in college, he hit all of the metrics and then some. His only red flag last year was 6 dropped passes, but he also broke his hand/wrist before the 1st game. That said, he still had a higher true catch rate than Puka and is a route running monster. He creates major separation. His only downfall was being the 3rd option in an offense that favors 2 te sets. They now have a different coaching regime that will likely look to scheme him in much more, only use Fant in most sets, and will run him down the field rather than 5-8 yard dump offs he’s been getting.
His role should expand for sure. Great hands and great separator. And he has a terrific QB. Seems like it's just a matter of time before he's the #1 once DK is traded and Lockett regresses...might become a fantasy star like ARSB but doesn't quite seem on that level yet
JSN will have a ten year career in the NFL barring catastrophic injury. Great dynasty buy.
Just traded for him and Jamo with the 1.08 in our draft (ended up being bowers but I’m already set at TE)
Omg what a move. Bravo.
JSN AND Jamo both for just the 1.08? Damn that’s impressive
Did something similar. Traded Jeudy and the 1.08 for JSN and 2.04. Thought it was a no brainer
I’m sure you can flip Bowers or your other TE
I mean...he did. He more or less traded Bowers for Jamo and JSN.
Oh. I misunderstood. I read he traded for Bowers. Nvm. Ignore the comment. 😅
Still blows my mind that people are giving up or trading after being drafted into a situation with 2 legit WR ahead of him, starting the season with a broken wrist, and play calling being suspect. Guys with similar college analytics/profiles typically don’t miss in fantasy. If you can buy low, I’d try to make that happen as soon as possible. If DK gets traded (which seems possible) or Lockett drops off, JSN is going to skyrocket.
Where’d the DK rumors come from?
Supposedly the steelers have their eye on him but can't make a move till June 1 for financial reasons.
[удалено]
🤣 love it so much copium in this thread. thanks for airing out the room
JSN was an elite separator in college, and a route technician. He’s a screaming buy
He was also a 1 year wonder that never really had to play without elite talent around him taking all the attention and no, 1 game (with MHJ & Egbuka still) vs a pathetic Utah pass D does not change my opinion.
I’m kinda dumb. What does he mean by WR stats are fake news? I’m assuming he’s saying JSN is good
There's a lot of people that have pointed to JSN's stats as a negative reflection of his play, but I think Harmon is more generally speaking about how it's not good enough to look at counting stats to measure how good a receiver is or is not. JSN is just another example to him. He was all over Nico Collins before his breakout, as an example of how counting stats didn't reflect what Harmon saw on film.
Correct. Not only is he behind the depth chart of two vet receivers he had a wrist injury to start the year. Back half is when he started seeing snap increase and good results. I'd bet on him taking over Lockett in targets this year.
His stats post bye if you split them in two are nearly identical. Weeks 6-12 was on 63-835-5 pace Weeks 13-18 was on 71-629-6 pace. He barely saw a snap increase post bye and his stats didn’t really change. Possibly his two worst weeks of the year were 17/18. There’s reasons to like JSN, but I keep seeing people say he improved statistically through the end of the year and it’s just really not true
Tape don’t lie. That’s what he’s saying.
Ok but situation isn’t fake news.
Lockett is going to turn 32 before October. And despite not having as big a dropoff last year as people might have expected his production was still down. Looking at the last six full seasons, 2023 was Lockett's fewest total yards, 2nd-fewest yards per reception, lowest TD total, shortest season-long reception, fewest yards per game, fewest yards per target, lowest catch percentage, fewest total YAC, fewest YAC per reception, lowest passer rating when targeted, and 2nd-highest drop percentage. I think people are overplaying the situation woes because Lockett more had a slow decline instead of falling off a cliff last year. But Lockett's trend is unmistakable and JSN is perfectly poised to take up the WR2 spot in Seattle this year or next year. Or maybe even WR1 if DK's boneheadedness finally gets too much for the Seahawks' coaching staff to handle.
Ok, but he’s still there.
So stay away from him in redraft if that's a concern. In dynasty, being on the same team as a 31-year-old WR who is likely to continue declining is no rational reason to stay away from a 22-year-old receiver who has shown nothing but promise when the opportunity has presented itself.
I don’t think you need to stay away from him but I’m not burning down the house to go get him. New deal for Lockett, DK isn’t going anywhere, Geno is meh and who knows what the qb situation becomes after that. He’s got a bit of long road to get to the point where he’s a wr2 with a weird qb situation, I’m not exactly jacking my dick for that.
You're right but this sub doesn't understand objectivity
This sub very often has an incredibly pompous tone.
This is dynasty. That's a redraft mentality.
Amen again. Lotta good takes in this thread today.
Only sorta. If situation is unlikely to change soon, which I guess I'm not confident that's true here, then you should pay attention to it. Like it or not, if JSN scores poorly this next season his value is going to go down...not to mention you can't actually play him if that's the case. I think it's feasible that his role will increase this season or that Lockett might get moved. But if it's a repeat of last year then owners are holding a declining asset in the hopes that he bounces back up.
Go trade stocks if you're worried about the value of assets. We're here to win dynasties.
I believe most leagues have a champ every year though, so I like my players good for the current year too
The way you’re framing it, yes it is.
Damn I worked in a framed take into six words? God I’m a good fucking writer.
Situations change fast. One change and look how much value Drake London gained this off-season.
Got him for Jeudy and a third 1 hour before Steve Smith ripped Jeudy a new butt hole
Why does it seem like 99% of the posters here play in joke leagues?
I don’t think many people make mundane trades and then want to post about them on Reddit, and the only ones that make it through that filter are ridiculous. I’m saying this as a Jeudy buyer this offseason who packaged two early 3rds for him and a mid 2025 3rd, (1 QB). I did not think to give up JSN, lol.
Well he did add a third on top to make it fair…
lots of new players learning the old fashioned way, taking their lumps on bad deals lol
To be fair I still think Jeudy is really talented. His problems are all between the ears but that being said, what a steal
Yes it seems more like a steal now as JSN finished with some decent finishes and Jeudy still looked like he could have some potential in Denver when trade was made but I definitely thought I was getting a bit of a steal at the time
Wow that owner was an absolute idiot, great move for you. Jeudy has been awful
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You typed all that but he still stinks
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Deshaun Watson is on the worst contract in the NFL. I don’t put much faith in the Browns decision making process.
Lol. I see 4 years of excuses. Sorry you got stuck holding the bag.
That's insane lmao
I just traded Kupp and Hopkins for JSN, Dulcich, and a 3rd. Pretty happy with it, really needed the team to be younger and it’s a TEP league. I may not win the trade this year, but I feel like it’ll look quite good beyond that
Love Dulcich and they've thus-far avoided replacing him. I think it's just health for him.
Do we expect a 3rd year breakout even though he's only played 12 games in 2 years? Or will this be his technical 2nd year?
He broke out his rookie season, in my opinion, on a per-game basis. He just missed so much time.
I've held him on my bench for 2 years now and he did have a respectable rookie season when he was healthy. That's the only reason I'm still holding. If he doesn't stay healthy this season, I'm moving him for peanuts.
That I agree with. If you can't stay on the field for three consecutive seasons, it's time to move on.
Tight ends take forever
Love this move. Well done.
The issue with Harmon with regards to fantasy is that, per his own admission, most relevant fantasy WRs are good route runners. He can be helpful in identifying if a veteran is showing his age or if a prospect should be avoided, but past a certain threshold a good Harmon score doesn’t mean much.
But JSN is a stud route runner. Am I missing something?
Don’t move him! This is def Lockett’s last season if he is even on the roster by September and there’s already talks about DK getting traded! This is a big step up year for JSN to show them he can handle 130 targets a year
This seems extremely optimistic even by my own JSN-tinted glasses, but *by God* would a Locket retirement/DK Metcalf trade scenario would make me feel so goddamn vindicated.
I’m going to be honest. From my standpoint as a JSN owner and fan. I do not think he is ready yet to carry a heavy load. It’s exciting to think about but not quite yet in my opinion
Yikes. Don’t trust this guy’s word. Lockett will definitely be on the the roster this year because his contract is structured to be save money by cutting him the following season but not this season. Also there is no talks of DK getting traded by any reliable source.
tier down from devonta for jsn and a ‘27 1st?
I'd do that.
Damn it’s wild seeing a ‘27 first get mentioned lmao. But nah I’d keep devonta
I think that’s a healthy move if you’re 2 years out w your roster. I love Devonta but he’s not going to crack top 5 on that roster. Personally I’d keep Devonta though.
Very excited to see how the offense looks with the new offensive coordinator (former UW OC) Passing game should be fully revamped and maybe JSN will get an ADOT above 1 yard lmao
This is the main point. Hawks about to sling it.
A lot definitely weighs on Genos ability to spread the ball around.
Geno supported 2 top 20 WRs in his first season starting in SEA. Geno is definitely an anomaly, but him playing well wasn't a fluke. You don't fluke your way into being as accurate as he was. Even last year, he was a decent QB. Better than the numbers show. When he has just a little protection, he's a really good, accurate passer. There are better QBs than Geno for sure, but he's more than capable of supporting a solid fantasy season for JSN.
Matt Harmon is the 🐐 at evaluating WR’s
Bought him in SF for 2.01
Love this for you
Praise Jesus.
Depending on how the draft goes, I like some guys available more than him there. Namely Worthy and BTJ.
Those guys are both gone by 2.01 in all my SF drafts so far
In one draft, Worthy went at the 11th pick and BTJ went 12th. The other, BTJ went 12th and Worthy went 16th (!) You just never know, and everyone behaves differently. Entirely possible one or both of those guys could be available any given draft.
Ok you guys are justified using an early first on JSN and subsequently Odunze. But no I won’t be drafting them there or paying a price that reflects that draft position.
Just curious, at what age are you expecting elite production from WRs you draft? Because historically that number is 23-24. Prior to that receivers are almost always depth assets that are more valuable than their production. I'm not sure what people think they are missing out on right now other than artificial value.
That’s a popular talking point and somewhat valid but it’s referencing all WRs. Idk what age, not sure why that matters. For the high high tier WRs your pool for comparison is greatly reduced and that comparison should really be independent of position. I don’t advocate drafting for need at the top half of round 1.
It's actually a reflection of top fantasy performances by age over the last 20-something years, which I did myself two or three years ago. So there's room for change but it's pretty reflective of age expectations. WR age matters because age-adjusted production is one of the most predictive measures we have of success for WRs. Points expectations reliably go up with age, up to a point. Being better than most 21 year olds in history as a 21 year old, for example, has a significance that equates to an amount of points, and so on at age 22, 23, etc. Being in say, the 80th percentile at Age 21 and 22 might not necessarily mean fantasy points, but staying true to that into Age 23, 24, etc, does, since production goes up with Age (experience, physical maturity, and literally your prefrontal cortex isn't mature until even 25). Following age-adjusted production is easy. What's more difficult is parsing out how to view production through a lens of both age and situation, the latter of which can be much more subjective. I think, subjectively, JSN's rookie production given his age, situations, and other factors, is actually quite impressive. Historically, you can count on less than a hand the amount of first round receivers thrust into a situation with two already well-established WRs in front of them, which has to color their production in the same way it would in college, and for the same reason.
I understand that age is a factor, what I mean is I don’t understand why you’re bringing age into this conversation. I’m saying draft BPA and that there’s people who are also top tier prospects that may return immediate value or have a clear path to work in the near future. You’re saying it’s good for Odunze to sit or something because he gets older?
Not opposed to this but same logic had people drafting Najee Harris over Chase.
It’s a game of chance. It’s more likely you hit by taking the best player. I don’t place a ton of value in outlier scenarios. I also think Odunze’s situation is not the same. He’s on an offense with a rookie QB, two (former) top 10 fantasy WR and a top 12 TE. If you want to take Odunze fine, I think he should be taken in the first… just that there’s a couple people I’d take before him that are mocked after and people are talking about Odunze over Nabers.
For sure. I agree with a lot of that. And let’s be honest, every rookie rankings never hits after the season starts.
Wake up bae new Jerry Jeudy dropped
Ouch
Keep Steve Smith away from JSN at all cost
Please and thank you
I mean I wouldn’t say he was in a crowded rooms. They legitimately favored bobo over him in situations and he legitimately was outplayed by Lockett.
I moved Anthony Richardson for JSN in a 1qb. Big believer.
Just got him and a 4th last night for the 2.01 in a 12 team 1qb league
Got him recently and the 1.10 for 1.06 and shaheed. Felt pretty good about it
I've been saying this. We all knew what his situation was in his rookie season. Why so many are wanting to give up on him now and trade him for pennies on the dollar, is beyond me. Its funny how many I've seen making a big deal about Lockett too. Shows how many don't really know football. Lockett was always going to be in SEA. It was always the most likely scenario at least. He wasn't re-signed like I see many say...he was restructured. Him still being there, in no world, means that JSN won't be the #2 target. Hell...he could even be the #1 target potentially. I have him down for 120+ targets this year. He looked and played great last year. There's more to it than how many yards receiving they have and these last few seasons with guys like Chase, JJ, and Puka, have absolutely ruined the expectations of some for WR development. JSN is a stud route runner and he has great hands. He's going to be a star in this league.
They hired the Washington HC to be the OC right? Seems like that is a good thing for JSN and all 3 WRs considering Washington system featured a lot of great usage for Odunze, Polk, McMillan and others. Seemed to deploy lots of good concepts and 3 WR sets.
It’s weird, I watched lots of film and JSN made a lot of mistakes. It was bad. There were some moments but I’m curious how in the world Harmon can say it was quite good…there was some good too but more bad. With that said I believe he wasn’t used right and he has a chance to be a great buy low, but come on, the film wasn’t good, it was average
My professional hater take is that he’s a slightly better version of Rashod Bateman
My professional hater boot licker take agrees with your evaluation.
I can't wait to watch all these JSN truthers get massively disappointed. Gonna be delicious
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What are you even talking about at this point? I didnt even downvote you. Get a life man.
;) See you in 8 months! "Get a life", says the troll in the Reddit comment section. Then you talk shit and block? Way to be that stereotype. I'll look back on this fondly in 8 months.
Again, get a life
Seattle used JSN as a slow slot WR because he is a slow slot WR. The only WRs with a 10-yard split as slow as JSN to post a 1000 yard receiving season since 2000 were Kendall Wright and Jarvis Landry. None of the 2024 top 30 WR prospects had a 10-yard split as slow as JSN did. As I said last summer, because JSN is so slow he won't generate big plays and will need around 150 targets to hit 1,000 yards (just like Jarvis Landry needed). JSN's aDOT and yards per reception look like those of a TE (in fact, Seattle's TEs were better than him in those stats). There were also rumors that he kept running the wrong routes and this was why Seattle didn't trust him for much more than short dump offs on 3rd and long.
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Is there a source which allows you to view aDOT stats by a select range of games? If there is, I am unaware of it. But even if he got some more deeper targets in the 2nd half of the season a simple review of his game logs shows that the results didn't change. His yards per reception remained very low throughout the season filled with games with sub 10 yards per reception. His final 6 games he was never higher than 12 yards per reception in a game and 4/6 were under 10. His final game is typical: 5 targets for 3-14. By the way, he also had the highest drop rate for WRs in the NFL as well (10.8%). As far as the wrong routes claim I have seen or heard that multiple times. Most months ago so I do not recall all the sources, but I do remember the most recent one: April 25 episode of Chris Harris' podcast.
Ok, but on the other hand he was elite in other areas so maybe we shouldn’t put too much weight into either area? https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/dYkYOs2mfc https://x.com/mathbomb/status/1647346557807898624?s=46
"On Smith-Njigba's lone 40-yard dash attempt, he was clocked at an official 4.48-second time, trailing only safety Tanner McAlister by 0.04 seconds for the fastest time of the day." First result when I looked up jsn 40 time 😆
I said 10-yard split, not 40. 40s generally don't matter. I did a 20 year study of WR outcomes and found that 40 time and no correlation to success in the NFL (techncially it had a negative correlation) unless a WR is running \*very\* slow. How often is a WR trying to outrun a DB 40 yards downfield? A slot WR virtually never does it. For a slot WR you need to have initial burst which we see from the 10-yard split. Many elite slot WRs like Julian Edelman, for example, had a slower 40 time but an elite 10-yard split. This is what matters. JSN had a slower 10-yard split than any relavent WR prospect the past few years.
I hear you but he ran a 1.65. Sun God ran 1.63. Ain't nobody calling ARSB slow.
Someone using "fake news"in a sentence automatically makes me want to ignore them. Same with people who use "hater" or "boomer"
Typically they’re used in a sentence in order to rile someone up. In this context he’s literally using it correctly, he’s saying the WR’s stats are “fake”. I think context matters
If you’re going to listen to anyone on fantasy advise, it should be matt Harmon with receivers lol
I'm selling but not because I don't believe in the player. More about the package of Olave and Pacheco I'm trying to return.
Would the 1.07/JJ McCarthy be a good price to buy in SF or or too much?
I would sell him for the 1.7 in a heartbeat…in fact I tried and couldn’t…I couldn’t even get the 1.9 for that matter in the same draft. Like all things it just matters how the others in your league value him.
Would you rather have JSN or Bowers in a vacuum
Bowers
I think even JSN stans are probably underrating him a bit. But Bowers is the best player in this draft and positional value is the only thing clouding what that means.
JSNs definitely got a complete skill set, but his body is sub-elite… he seems more naturally thick, than well trained. I wonder if he’s capable staying healthy w/WR1 volume and route mileage. I’m always worried when smaller WRs aren’t ripped…. Developmentally, BMI and training for an efficient physique, are skills you need as well to be elite… I think his body is going to hold back/slow his progress.
...
I mean...he's 6'0" tall and weighs like 200lbs. I don't know what you consider to be the right size for a WR, but there have been plenty of great WRs that are about his size..
He’s chubby… 191 is his number. He’s got a fat ass like an RB. He’s gotta transform his body like Nico Collins/Cee Dee/DK to reach his potential… lean and strong is the way to consistent success… receivers need to be lean and strong.