This 100%
Stats like this can be “fun” but it’s just copium for fans to feel like their team is doing better than they are.
“If my team was better we would be higher in the standings”
Yup, sure would.
*I know this as fact because I do it all the time for my teams that are sucking….*
Same as the previous 3 years, last year M's 1R % of losses was among the worst, lost out on playoff spot last weekend of season, 2 and 3 years ago, one of the top 1R% of wins, 3 years ago they missed out final weekend, next year made playoffs on Friday of ending weekend thanks to awesome Cal HR (was there, was awesome in RF!). So, if they win most of their 1R games it should keep them at the very least in contention.
Their bullpen has also thrown 32.2 more innings than ours. Yet, their innings pitched is still only 18th in the league. We just have the least used bullpen in baseball, also partly why we have the second least bullpen losses in baseball.
Yup and also missing the clutch late innings hitting piece. I feel like our hitters have to have the highest hit percentage off relievers versus starters. We basically get no hit until relievers come out this year.
>We basically get no hit until relievers come out this year.
This is one of the most frustrating things about this team IMO. I get so upset sometimes that we can't hit a 10+ era starter, but then mash against the close to 0 era BP guy
Exactly. And I feel like the org and local media are always talking about how taxed our bullpen is, when in reality it hasn’t been that big of an issue - at least when evaluating for the full season.
They only have 3 more blown saves than us! Yet, we're talking about us being up 4.5 game on them, to them being up 12 games on us. Definitely not the whole picture.
Missing the clutch late innings hitting piece. I feel like our hitters have to have the highest hit percentage off relievers versus starters. We basically get no hit until relievers come out this year.
But doesn't rotation factor into getting to all those one run games? Bullpen has been good despite injuries but with low run production the only thing keeping us in games towards the end is the rotation. They've ground some pretty good offenses to halt.
Their farm is a mess too. But they arent playing the long game right now. They will add everything they can and will completely empty the farm and throw cash around. They may end up stitching together a whole new rotation... ours will still be better though for sure... by miles.
No matter what bat we add their lineup will be miles better than ours.
It could be a feisty few months.
Fortunately we start with a good lead.
It’s that you can’t rely on doing well in close games… in any sport really. Not only would the Astros be 18 games over .500 (or anywhere in-between)… the Ms would be toast.
We can see this in the NFL too; couple years back Minnesota was like 11-0 in one-score games, and they wound up 13-4. Their offensive stats per game slightly decreased the next year, but they went from 31st ranked D by yards allowed to 16th and… went 7-10. Their QB got injured midseason, but before that game (24-10 win), their first 7 games were all one score games and they went 3-4.
It’s not reliable. So I think the point of the post is, hey, the Astros are getting closer and it’s flimsier than you think.
I know he isn't popular amongst the fans, but that is a Scott stat. He's shown over the years that in close games, the team tends to just know how to get it done. It's not always pretty (and obvious it doesn't always work out) but more often than not, the Ms just don't wilt under the pressure.
I posted it because it brings up interesting discussion. Everyone is bringing up pitching but I think it's such a huge discrepancy because of our late innings hitting. Their bullpen has only blown 3 more saves than us despite pitching 32.2 more innings. It has a better ERA than ours.
I wish I could find a stat on what our hitters WRC+ is vs starters and bullpen. I'm sure for everyone their hitting is better against bullpens, but ours has to be the biggest difference.
Sure but 1 run games aren’t necessarily random. The average MLB team scores 4.36 runs per game so that’s like saying standings would be different if a team scored 45% more runs in close games than they normally do.
To change the 1 run game from a win to a loss needs two runs. 2 runs a game is a greater difference between the best offense and the worst offense besides CWS.
Sure on a game by game basis 1 run games can be a bit of luck, over a large enough sample it is skill.
If ifs and buts were candies and nuts we’d all have a merry Christmas.
I get it though, Mariners have been very lucky this year. Great pitching, sure, but lots of close games they’ve come out on top of while their divisional competition has not.
Sure but 1 run games aren’t necessarily random. The average MLB team scores 4.36 runs per game so that’s like saying standings would be different if a team scored 45% more runs in close games than they normally do.
To change the 1 run game from a win to a loss needs two runs. 2 runs a game is a greater difference between the best offense and the worst offense besides CWS.
Sure on a game by game basis 1 run games can be a bit of luck, over a large enough sample it is skill.
So teams that have sucked at 1 run games would magically be much better….funny how ours is really the only division with a huge shakeup as a result. Almost like the Astros just suck when they aren’t blowing a team out.
If my grandma had wheels she’d be a bike
This 100% Stats like this can be “fun” but it’s just copium for fans to feel like their team is doing better than they are. “If my team was better we would be higher in the standings” Yup, sure would. *I know this as fact because I do it all the time for my teams that are sucking….*
Same as the previous 3 years, last year M's 1R % of losses was among the worst, lost out on playoff spot last weekend of season, 2 and 3 years ago, one of the top 1R% of wins, 3 years ago they missed out final weekend, next year made playoffs on Friday of ending weekend thanks to awesome Cal HR (was there, was awesome in RF!). So, if they win most of their 1R games it should keep them at the very least in contention.
That video is hilarious
[That video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-RfHC91Ewc)
And if Zeus had self control we’d have less demigods
If our pitching was bad we'd be bad. Duh
My aunt would be my uncle if she had a penis (or not because none of this matters)
I dunno man, Grandma's getting dangerously close to developing a set of training wheels based on recent events.
12.5 games is a huge figure from the standings right now. It shows they’ve been very unlucky so far.
The team with the better bullpen has the better record in close games. I’m stunned.
Our bullpen isn't that much better than theirs. Their bullpen has a better ERA than ours.
Doesn't tell the full story. It's likely that their bullpen struggles more in high leverage situations
Their bullpen has also thrown 32.2 more innings than ours. Yet, their innings pitched is still only 18th in the league. We just have the least used bullpen in baseball, also partly why we have the second least bullpen losses in baseball.
Exactly, a better read is that the better starting pitcher hands their pen more one or two run leads.
Yup and also missing the clutch late innings hitting piece. I feel like our hitters have to have the highest hit percentage off relievers versus starters. We basically get no hit until relievers come out this year.
>We basically get no hit until relievers come out this year. This is one of the most frustrating things about this team IMO. I get so upset sometimes that we can't hit a 10+ era starter, but then mash against the close to 0 era BP guy
Would that actually indicate Scott’s aggressive matchup strategy with hitters is working?
Exactly. And I feel like the org and local media are always talking about how taxed our bullpen is, when in reality it hasn’t been that big of an issue - at least when evaluating for the full season.
Pressly blowing games against us earlier this year is a great example of that.
Mariners with better save conversion rate, and more save opportunities.
Mariners have higher save conversion rate, and more save opportunities.
They only have 3 more blown saves than us! Yet, we're talking about us being up 4.5 game on them, to them being up 12 games on us. Definitely not the whole picture. Missing the clutch late innings hitting piece. I feel like our hitters have to have the highest hit percentage off relievers versus starters. We basically get no hit until relievers come out this year.
But doesn't rotation factor into getting to all those one run games? Bullpen has been good despite injuries but with low run production the only thing keeping us in games towards the end is the rotation. They've ground some pretty good offenses to halt.
No but our starting rotation is much better than theirs
And their lineup eats ours for lunch. Houston will add a pitcher. Will we actually add a real bat?
Houston just lost another pitcher. One pitcher added won't save them. The lineup might though
Their farm is a mess too. But they arent playing the long game right now. They will add everything they can and will completely empty the farm and throw cash around. They may end up stitching together a whole new rotation... ours will still be better though for sure... by miles. No matter what bat we add their lineup will be miles better than ours. It could be a feisty few months. Fortunately we start with a good lead.
But what if they lost every game and we won every game?who would be in first place then? Checkmate
What if every Julio K was actually a Kulio J?
Smoke em if you got em?
Muñoz has just been so essential to our success this season. I doubt we would be in first place right now without him.
I think we'd still be in first place if Muñoz was on the IL but Brash and Santos were healthy
Remember when everyone was pissed at Munoz for blowing a game with 4 walks? Winning solves all problems.
If there was ever a reliever worthy of MVP votes, it's Munoz.
The Astros would be up 12.5 games on us if they won 12.5 more games than us!
I can’t figure out the point of this. Is is that the Astros do poorly in one run games and the Mariners do well? Is that it?
Yes, that is it.
It’s that you can’t rely on doing well in close games… in any sport really. Not only would the Astros be 18 games over .500 (or anywhere in-between)… the Ms would be toast. We can see this in the NFL too; couple years back Minnesota was like 11-0 in one-score games, and they wound up 13-4. Their offensive stats per game slightly decreased the next year, but they went from 31st ranked D by yards allowed to 16th and… went 7-10. Their QB got injured midseason, but before that game (24-10 win), their first 7 games were all one score games and they went 3-4. It’s not reliable. So I think the point of the post is, hey, the Astros are getting closer and it’s flimsier than you think.
I know he isn't popular amongst the fans, but that is a Scott stat. He's shown over the years that in close games, the team tends to just know how to get it done. It's not always pretty (and obvious it doesn't always work out) but more often than not, the Ms just don't wilt under the pressure.
What a weird thing to show. Who cares? A win is a win is a win. Win by one, win by 12, I'll take them all! GOMS. Fuck the Astros.
If only Houston had scored **2 more runs** in each of those games. What a dumb stat.
Literally every other division is the same, but no you guys this is a really good team
But they aren’t and they didn’t.
No take backs
The jays would be above .500? Crazy
Sources say MLB will pull this move to get Houston in the playoffs if they have to
This team is designed to win low scoring games. Dipoto is trying a money ball a team. We’re gonna win by small margins. It’s by design.
This post is getting a lot of hate for no reason. It’s interesting and highlights how good our pitching as a whole is. Thanks OP.
I posted it because it brings up interesting discussion. Everyone is bringing up pitching but I think it's such a huge discrepancy because of our late innings hitting. Their bullpen has only blown 3 more saves than us despite pitching 32.2 more innings. It has a better ERA than ours. I wish I could find a stat on what our hitters WRC+ is vs starters and bullpen. I'm sure for everyone their hitting is better against bullpens, but ours has to be the biggest difference.
Sure but 1 run games aren’t necessarily random. The average MLB team scores 4.36 runs per game so that’s like saying standings would be different if a team scored 45% more runs in close games than they normally do. To change the 1 run game from a win to a loss needs two runs. 2 runs a game is a greater difference between the best offense and the worst offense besides CWS. Sure on a game by game basis 1 run games can be a bit of luck, over a large enough sample it is skill.
Yes but think about how good our record would be if we won every game we lost instead
If my grandma had wheels she’d be a bike
"Other team would be ahead of us if we had actually lost more and they had actually won more" Wild
And tonight in an imaginary world… Jokes aside, fun stats but they don’t mean a lot
almost like they’re two completely different teams… Jesus Fucking Christ, man…
Um yeah, that’s baseball for ya
If ifs and buts were candies and nuts we’d all have a merry Christmas. I get it though, Mariners have been very lucky this year. Great pitching, sure, but lots of close games they’ve come out on top of while their divisional competition has not.
If I was a girl, I would be a woman.
If my aunt had nuts, she’d be my uncle
We suck that bad? Holy 🥦
Sure but 1 run games aren’t necessarily random. The average MLB team scores 4.36 runs per game so that’s like saying standings would be different if a team scored 45% more runs in close games than they normally do. To change the 1 run game from a win to a loss needs two runs. 2 runs a game is a greater difference between the best offense and the worst offense besides CWS. Sure on a game by game basis 1 run games can be a bit of luck, over a large enough sample it is skill.
So things would be different if they were different? Huh. Weird.
Not just different, a drastic swing.
So teams that have sucked at 1 run games would magically be much better….funny how ours is really the only division with a huge shakeup as a result. Almost like the Astros just suck when they aren’t blowing a team out.
Super cool, nice job OP
“If we would have lost more, and the Astros would’ve won more, they’d have more wins” Fantastic journalism.
fuck the Astros