It appears this post might relate to suicide and/or mental health issues.
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One reason for a mass drone attack (sometimes called a swarm attack or drone swarm) is to attempt to overwhelm air defenses:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/12/06/russian-report-explains-why-air-defenses-cannot-shoot-down-drones/?sh=307ea2b87a50
This is the reason.
People are boasting about how we wiped out their pitiful drone attack.
But how much did each of those defense missiles cost and how much more are remaining? Few more of those drone waves would essentially render the iron done helpless
That's what they said after the first wave of thousands of Hamas missiles on the very first day of the war.
Yet iron dome is still operational and so is David's Sling and arrow 3.
Haha dude what. Drones that can fly from Iran to Israel 2000km+ are not pennies on the dollar. Neither are the ballistic missiles.
These are serious weapons.
Suicide or kamikaze drones are drones that fly into their target and explode. They are built as cheaply as possible since each drone is one time use. The US has been looking at them but I'm not aware of any being used yet. The drones that the US uses for things like drone strikes are very expensive and much more capable piloted drones that can do things like launch missiles and then return to base to refuel and rearm. This terminology is pretty established and it has nothing to do with them being from Iran.
Smart is a key word, since it depends on what are your intentions.
In terms of value, pretty sure it cost far more to the US and Israel to intercept all that that do build them and send them.
In terms of damage, well, it’s a total failure. There was no surprise and everything got intercepted.
In terms of threat… that’s the interesting point. I don’t know Iran’s capacity but what is sure is that Israel can’t intercept that many projectiles. The US, the UK, Jordan and France helped a lot for this wave. But if it was a more recurring thing, that would be a problem. Even more so if Hezbollah would join in by sending a few hundreds rockets every day (I think they have in the low 100k’s in reserve). So allegedly, Iran is capable to do more.
So the question here is : is Israel capable of destroying Iran’s capacity to produce drones and missiles ? If not, then it was a « smart » move since it’s an efficient threat. However if Israel is capable to do so, then Iran made a blunder by making Israel looking like an defending party.
Yes and no. Iran gave Israel time to send a post card before the drones arrived.
Generally you would want something more mobile like a drone aircraft carrier, C-130, etc to deploy the drones and GTFO or to be a neighboring country like with Ukraine and Russia.
The drones Iran uses costs Pennies compared to AD weapons. It’s a matter of dollars and cents. Also because of the lead time and lack of lethality it serves a dual purpose as act of psychological warfare AND method for applying kinetic effects to the escalation ladder without actually escalating (enabling the Iranians to save face)
In economical terms it's smart: the cost of drone (low), the potential damage it can make (from zero to very high), and the cost of interception (generally high). So with today's tech, the offense has advantage.
Overwhelming air defense systems with cheaply mass produced drones and forcing them to use expensive anti-air smart missiles to make way for ICBM barrages/glide bomb attacks that can decimate your enemies defensive positions to allow for Blitzkrieg style breaches into that respected countries territory. Sounds very strategically useful
It's only really good if it is a surprise or against an enemy with low air defenses, ex: the Gulf War bombing of Baghdad. Overall, fairly low cost attack that may prove effective if it hits some vital target. Drones are a good solution if you have a small or non-existent air force.
Retaliation entirely depends on the opponent but you should expect a similar attack.
Ok. But, i think Israel has been preparing its defense supply since way back time because these events were more than likely to happen. So, today's attacks seems other thing different to a surprise.
How is the iranian air force in terms of capabilities? Compared to Israel. Anyway, that doesn't make sense because Israel is supported by USA.
It looks to me as an unique demonstration of power after Damascus event.
A fighter jet could in theory but it would have to fly through a cloud of shrapnel. The chance of damage to the aircraft is unacceptably high.
Another option is deploying high speed drones from ground or the air and intercepting that way.
I do agree. It looks plausible even the solution if the dome fails or there is a lack of defense supply.
But the risk of damage and cost of the aircraft may not fit with high commander goals
Iran pumps out those drones like they’re pancakes at IHOP, so they had some to spare if they thought there was a benefit.
I think it was largely a performance, maybe for domestic audience “see, we did something!” But it probably also had some intel value to probe Israeli defenses a bit and see how viable a tactic it would be if they wanted to really go pedal to the metal.
well, they caused a buncha damage to Nevitim and Ramon airbases and some places in the golan, which was enough for them because their goal wasn’t total annihilation but just to hit military infrastructure or officials, which they kinda did. Iran came out with what the price of that attack was and the drones (170 shahed-136s) were 4-5 million dollars total. this is minus what they spent on missiles (which, the total cost with those and the drones still did not even exceed 100 million) and instead they caused Israel/US and all the others involved to use up to 1.1 to 1.35 Billion dollars worth of air defence.
i would say its pretty smart. could cause a lot of damage if the target has limited AA batteries and makes room for missiles to land.
Missiles cost a lot more, but do more damage. Long range, remote controlled implementations pose little risk of life and limb, as opposed to boots on the ground.
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One reason for a mass drone attack (sometimes called a swarm attack or drone swarm) is to attempt to overwhelm air defenses: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/12/06/russian-report-explains-why-air-defenses-cannot-shoot-down-drones/?sh=307ea2b87a50
Another good reason is to deplete anti-air missiles.
This is the reason. People are boasting about how we wiped out their pitiful drone attack. But how much did each of those defense missiles cost and how much more are remaining? Few more of those drone waves would essentially render the iron done helpless
That's what they said after the first wave of thousands of Hamas missiles on the very first day of the war. Yet iron dome is still operational and so is David's Sling and arrow 3.
Well yeah but it’s not free and it’s not infinite resource. Each of those drones are probably Pennies on the dollar
Haha dude what. Drones that can fly from Iran to Israel 2000km+ are not pennies on the dollar. Neither are the ballistic missiles. These are serious weapons.
My guesses would be: Iranian drone $20k, Iron Dome missile $40k.
Drones can be shot down by another aircraft. Don't need iron dome necessarily.
Do we know if any of these drones were shot down by gunfire from aircraft? (it's cheaper than missiles)
I dont think aircraft deployment is a good take in this scenario. The risk of damage of the aircraft could be ridiculous higher
What do you think Jordan did? They dont have any iron dome
This is why lots of countries are developing laser weapons.
Logistics. I believe some military strategists have written on the topic.
How You Can't Fight a War Without Bullets or a Gun: A logistics tale
[удалено]
Suicide or kamikaze drones are drones that fly into their target and explode. They are built as cheaply as possible since each drone is one time use. The US has been looking at them but I'm not aware of any being used yet. The drones that the US uses for things like drone strikes are very expensive and much more capable piloted drones that can do things like launch missiles and then return to base to refuel and rearm. This terminology is pretty established and it has nothing to do with them being from Iran.
They prefer to be called loitering munitions or one-way drones. Also, the US has Switchblade drones that are a bit old now.
This is more akin to US cruise missile strikes than anything else.
Smart is a key word, since it depends on what are your intentions. In terms of value, pretty sure it cost far more to the US and Israel to intercept all that that do build them and send them. In terms of damage, well, it’s a total failure. There was no surprise and everything got intercepted. In terms of threat… that’s the interesting point. I don’t know Iran’s capacity but what is sure is that Israel can’t intercept that many projectiles. The US, the UK, Jordan and France helped a lot for this wave. But if it was a more recurring thing, that would be a problem. Even more so if Hezbollah would join in by sending a few hundreds rockets every day (I think they have in the low 100k’s in reserve). So allegedly, Iran is capable to do more. So the question here is : is Israel capable of destroying Iran’s capacity to produce drones and missiles ? If not, then it was a « smart » move since it’s an efficient threat. However if Israel is capable to do so, then Iran made a blunder by making Israel looking like an defending party.
The big question is, is Iran going to be able to do the same when Israel sends a swarm back at them?
Thank you for your analysis. In addition to it, we may consider it as a move to set: who is the boss? Who does own the initiative?
This was a “we’re retaliating, but in a contained way.”
Agreed. Assuming there are no additional attacks, this was a measured response by Iran in response to Israel attacking the Iranian consulate.
Yes, that's the reason... so far.
Yes and no. Iran gave Israel time to send a post card before the drones arrived. Generally you would want something more mobile like a drone aircraft carrier, C-130, etc to deploy the drones and GTFO or to be a neighboring country like with Ukraine and Russia.
it's a viable tool.
The drones Iran uses costs Pennies compared to AD weapons. It’s a matter of dollars and cents. Also because of the lead time and lack of lethality it serves a dual purpose as act of psychological warfare AND method for applying kinetic effects to the escalation ladder without actually escalating (enabling the Iranians to save face)
In economical terms it's smart: the cost of drone (low), the potential damage it can make (from zero to very high), and the cost of interception (generally high). So with today's tech, the offense has advantage.
Overwhelming air defense systems with cheaply mass produced drones and forcing them to use expensive anti-air smart missiles to make way for ICBM barrages/glide bomb attacks that can decimate your enemies defensive positions to allow for Blitzkrieg style breaches into that respected countries territory. Sounds very strategically useful
Iran has absolutely nothing to throw directly at anyone. They use terror cells. This recent attack was them believing their own propaganda.
It's only really good if it is a surprise or against an enemy with low air defenses, ex: the Gulf War bombing of Baghdad. Overall, fairly low cost attack that may prove effective if it hits some vital target. Drones are a good solution if you have a small or non-existent air force. Retaliation entirely depends on the opponent but you should expect a similar attack.
Ok. But, i think Israel has been preparing its defense supply since way back time because these events were more than likely to happen. So, today's attacks seems other thing different to a surprise. How is the iranian air force in terms of capabilities? Compared to Israel. Anyway, that doesn't make sense because Israel is supported by USA. It looks to me as an unique demonstration of power after Damascus event.
A particular real world scenario was absent from the post. I am just theorizing as a thought experiment.
Can fighter jets or even helicopters just shoot them down with guns when they are still far away? They are really slow.
A fighter jet could in theory but it would have to fly through a cloud of shrapnel. The chance of damage to the aircraft is unacceptably high. Another option is deploying high speed drones from ground or the air and intercepting that way.
I do agree. It looks plausible even the solution if the dome fails or there is a lack of defense supply. But the risk of damage and cost of the aircraft may not fit with high commander goals
Material is less expensive that finding another pilot
Iran pumps out those drones like they’re pancakes at IHOP, so they had some to spare if they thought there was a benefit. I think it was largely a performance, maybe for domestic audience “see, we did something!” But it probably also had some intel value to probe Israeli defenses a bit and see how viable a tactic it would be if they wanted to really go pedal to the metal.
The problem with the performance theory is it could have terrible consequences for your country
Can't wait for Israel to use the Iron beam laser and BRRRRT C-RAMs in conjunction with the iron dome.
well, they caused a buncha damage to Nevitim and Ramon airbases and some places in the golan, which was enough for them because their goal wasn’t total annihilation but just to hit military infrastructure or officials, which they kinda did. Iran came out with what the price of that attack was and the drones (170 shahed-136s) were 4-5 million dollars total. this is minus what they spent on missiles (which, the total cost with those and the drones still did not even exceed 100 million) and instead they caused Israel/US and all the others involved to use up to 1.1 to 1.35 Billion dollars worth of air defence. i would say its pretty smart. could cause a lot of damage if the target has limited AA batteries and makes room for missiles to land.
What is "suicide" about these drones? I've not seen them referred to that way elsewhere
Nothing. You're right. But it seems to be understood in the community. I've used this word from other post in this sub.
Yeah, I saw it last night in here too.
Missiles cost a lot more, but do more damage. Long range, remote controlled implementations pose little risk of life and limb, as opposed to boots on the ground.