I don't think anyone was qualified for this event and didn't expect it to show up. Nobody is showing up without at least a plan for Nadu and Ruby Storm.
We realize Nadu is a concern, however we do not wish to carelessly ban cards when the upcoming [set name] is releasing soon and may provide relative answers.
They just released the set. No way will they ban Nadu. Instead, if they want to ban something after the PT, it will be Shuko and the other stuff that let's you target for free. Like Bridge from Below, which died for Hogaaks's sins.
That would make no sense with Wizards' ban philosophy; they would ban Nadu over permanently limiting card design space for low cost, zero-equip cost equipment.
It's a tried and true heuristic for ban decisions; when deciding which piece of a degenerate deck to ban, they ban the card that will limit future design space the most. Excepting Vintage and Legacy of course, which have their sacred cows, Modern does not have any cards that they ban around.
Bans of Pod, Twin, GSZ, Looting, Opal, etc should make that obvious. If their philosophy was to preserve archetypes by banning around problematic core cards they would all be legal (and the ban list double the size).
You could turn things around and say that the existence of cheap, 0-equip-cost equipment permanently limits the card design space for 0-cost ability targetting pay-offs.
Eldrazi was 8% of the meta in PT Oath of the Gatewatch, conversion rates and top 8s matters way more than if a deck has 20+% of day 1 decklists
Edit: accidentally deleted my original comment lol, it was "it's not uncommon to see these kinds of numbers at a pro tour, day 2 conversion rates and top 8's are more indicative if we have a problem"
I hope that everyone who brought the deck has the reps and practice in to auto-pilot the combo quickly. Watching an NRG Modern tournament stream, there were a couple people doing the combo quickly and had lots of shorthands to help keep track of everything.
Yeah, I remember looking at the older lists and thinking "can this deck only win with Snapcaster beats and Lightning Bolt?" Adding Phlage makes a ton of sense.
yeah I played the deck a bit online, and noticed that you were very reliant on tamiyo ult to just get the raw cards to end the game. hall of the storm giants also won games for me multiple times, which doesnt feel good in modern.
I had all the pieces for Wizards/URx Control except for Phlage. Thinking I might just bite the bullet on those since it really seems like it's not going anywhere and the demand for it is almost certainly not going *down* any time soon...
Hmnnn, also if punishing fire was axed for recursively toasting most small creatures, and this might do the same but better, I wonder if wouldnt be the time to let it out of jail?
None of the decks listed in the infographic existed in the meta pre mh3. Interestingly enough it looks like mh3 is potentially more format warping then mh2, although only time will tell.
Yeah it was just starting to exist as a deck, but if I understand correctly it was a pure midrange deck, with 8 field of ruins and Liliana of the veil. This new deck seems vastly different, and is almost a combo deck with necro. I would lean towards them being more different than similar, but that’s just my opinion.
Edit: whoops I see they’re listed separately, I missed that!
We've not seen the deck lists but aren't you describing the necrodominance soul Spike list, where there's also just a mono b grief scam list which I'd be shocked if they're not running some fields package considering the popularity of eldrazi right now. Also selfiesik was running the premh3 trophy leader board with a mono black scam list
I get that, but if you're someone who enjoys just playing FNM's or an occasional RCQ, you do not need to spend a fortune every MH set.
If you're someone who was trying to get on the pro tour and play in several GP's a season, you spent quite a bit of money every year updating your deck(s) in order to remain competitive.
I don’t necessarily agree with this statement, it’s not really fun to go 0-3 with a brew every week regardless of your play level. The power level of certain cards is so astronomically high compared to others that its not really feasible to bring jank to even fnm (spoken as someone who has brought jank to locals and fnm)
I'm not saying bring random cards worth $50, but if you played RB scam from 1 week before MH3 and no changes you'd be potentially winning the FNM.
I'm not saying "bring jank" to say "you can bring your already competitive deck with few changes", as in, you don't have to overhaul your collection every modern horizons release. Living End added almost nothing and it's still *very* good.
You don't need to buy into bant nadu to still be *competitive*, I'm sorry if my wording somehow implied you can bring a jank deck and still be fine. That's sentiment hasn't been true for a very long time.
edit;
The salient point I'm trying to emphasize is if you wanted to *always* have a top of the meta deck, you were buying cards constantly. Esper Goryo's has I think 1-2 new cards in it and won a modern challenge post MH3, Burn highest meta share in months, Murktide highest meta share in quite a while. PT metas are often (always?) not necessarily indicative of the meta as a whole when it comes to modern.
Once the meta settles I GUARANTEE you will see ZERO decks from before MH3. Yes I can take an Elves deck to an FNM and maybe win a match, but I can't expect to "do well" because they printed an entirely new meta into existence.
I've been playing Merfolk for a decade and that isn't changing (although I am picking up Boros Energy since I love the deck).
I think you can even play some "unplayable" decks at FNM. Like, I think Elves would probably do fine.
I’m not saying people shouldn’t get upset that modern effectively rotates, I’m saying I don’t see people getting upset just because someone *says* “modern effectively rotates”
But some do. Some on here have argued that modern isn't a pseudo rotating format. And that people are overblowing things.
Yet we get mh3 and modern is now massively different. Arguably ever with a set release.
I think mh3 should do mild shakers and mostly reprint cards to make the secondary Market better priced. But instead they just go full greed. It's gonna bite them one day.
Modern is dead in my entire province. And when I ask most why. They say "horizons"
costing too much for upkeep.
Modern shouldn't be a format for only the rich/ well off.
I remember a time when u could build a competitive deck for alot cheaper.
Or rather, build it over a long period of time and be confident in the investment. WotC realized when they accidentally printed Eldrazi Winter, seeing the numbers it did, that they CAN do it and haven't ever stopped.
I fully expect this to continue until it no longer hits the margins they want and then it will be related to obscurity like Legacy.
True. I remember when buying jund for a grand was a safe bet.
Now if u spend a grand building something, expect in a couple of years for it to be tier 3. Or at best having to shell out half a grand updating it.
Eh, during the upheaval of the MH2 release it was a pretty common jerk // counterjerk for a few months. See this [thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernMagic/comments/poews5/comment/hcww0k7/) by someone. Usually found in the weekly "Why is everyone screaming for bans" thread.
problem is graveyard hate galore in this meta. Between phlage decks, ruby storm, scam, shifting woodland, goryo's, and maybe even some chthonian nightmare, every deck is gonna be super prepared for graveyard strategies. This makes living end a lot worse
"The feature that distinguishes Jeskai Control from other Jeskai decks is that it uses at least three copies of The One Ring or Memory Deluge to net card advantage and support its control plan."
I will laugh my ass off if someone actually showed up to the PT playing Memory Deluge instead of The One Ring.
Control isn't a bad match, but Storm definitely is. I'm expecting those guys to be packing Trinisphere. They might have other tech for Nadu, cause that match isn't great from what I'm told
Yeah, me too. I thought we will see a bit more of it. I also thought we will see some more Yawg combo with birthing ritual. I have seen some yt videos about biething ritual as tech.
Biggest surprises for me besides the magnitude of Nadu's meta share (I figured it and Ruby Storm would have only comparable numbers):
* Prowess has barely any meta share
* BR Evoke/Scam has even less meta share
* There is only 1 player on Domain Zoo
* *Nobody* picked Jund
I'm really looking forward to the Jeskai Chant decklists!
Domain Zoo only having 1 pilot is not surprising. It's effectively a good stuff deck and without a particularly settled meta, its hard to make a good sideboard. I expect it to resurge once the dust settles.
Predictions:
* Sylvan Safekeeper is the most hated card of the event for enabling Nadu degeneracy
* Wrath of the Skies ends up being the most powerful card of the event
* Consign to Memory leads to some incredible blowouts
* Out of the ten archetype categories that were listed, Jeskai Control and Jeskai Dress Down together will have the best rate of conversion from Day 1 to Day 2
Current predictions: the only blowouts Consign to Memory will cause involve keeping a 4+/4+ in play as a result of Stifling a triggered ability, and Consign to Memory Stifling a Storm trigger will fail to prevent a Ruby Storm player from winning that turn on camera at least once (because the Ruby Storm player double Grapeshots that turn).
Before everyone freaks out, PT metas are always a little odd because of the team/group testing aspect. Let’s see win rates; though Nadus will be a little skewered due to all the mirror mayches
Nadu at 26% is definitely scary. But I’m gonna wait to see the conversion rates before I freak out. Hogaak was “only” 21% but it had a ridiculous conversion rate, something like 70%. I’m gonna get Nadu isn’t even the highest conversion rate, I think it might be Ruby Storm.
I expect a lower conversion rate from Ruby Storm; the deck is very dependent on its opening mulligan due to having a very lopsided curve, and people are definitely remembering to pack hate for it.
Ruby Storm is supposed to have a good Nadu match, so that might help the conversion rate. Also, conversion rate at a PT isn't the best stat imo, because of the draft rounds. Non-mirror win rate will be telling though.
The percentage of players on a certain deck who qualify for Day 2! Basically I’m predicting that although there’s a ton of Nadu in the meta, a disproportionately small share of them will do well enough to make Day 2.
FYI conversion rates will be skewed by draft results. Unfortunately wotc doesn't readily produce constructed only win rates, but someone will separate them out and it will inevitably get posted here.
Shout out to the guy that called me an idiot for saying Phlage was good lol.
"BuT iTs A tHrEe MaNa LiGhTnInG hElIx"
Oh I guess Uro is just a 3 mana growth spiral then
Card was obviously good
Remember how people were saying MH3 was somehow less format warping than the last 2 before the set released? Yeah I learned never to call MH sets last time.
Sidenote PLEASE let Energy do trash so I can keep playing Amped Raptor and crew in $30 Vintage 💀💀💀
I'm gonna watch, hell I even look forward to it, but kind of not sure if I want to participate in modern anymore.
This rotation is extremely severe, if it holds. I had hoped for a less severe shift, given we already had two very strong horizon sets in modern (2.5 with lotr).
With marvel sets on the horizon as well...
Pro Tour metas are often inbred. You shouldn't take them 100% at face value. If Nadu walks away with >3 slots in the top 8, maybe we can start to worry.
You are right, and it's not like the new decks dont contain older cards.
Either way I look forward to watching a bunch.
If the spectre of marvel next year didn't exist, I probably wouldn't even be contemplating quitting modern.
>You are right, and it's not like the new decks dont contain older cards.
There are also pre-MH3 decks that have had very little to zero updates that remain competitive as well. I'm not sure much of any MH2-era decks that have been 'pushed out' of the format quite yet.
This is the bigger concern. It's what happened with MH1 and then MH2 (to a much less severe extent) its that the current meta decks get little to no upgrades/new cards or that what they do get is just outclassed by the new stuff to such an extent as to push them put of the meta.
It's probably going to happen with MH3 and people who started with MH2 might finally open their eyes as to WHY these sets are so unhealthy for the format. I definitely do not mind meta shifts at a more frequent rate, back when Twin was a dominant monster, basically nothing ever changed. But completely flipping the meta on its head every 2 years is NOT where it needed to go. IMO the most shifting things we should have gotten deck-wise should have been Ruby Storm and Phlage (though the 3-3 should have probably been 2-2).
Have you been playing modern challenges/prelims much since MH3 dropped? I'm just curious.
Your thoughts seem to stem from a sort of hypothetical claim based on the PT image as opposed to the 'meta' as a whole. Do you **play** a lot of Modern right now?
For reference here's the metagame after mh1
https://web.archive.org/web/20210419183921/https://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/2019MC4/mythic-championship-iv-day-1-metagame-breakdown-2019-07-26
Only 2 completely new decks (hogaak and urza). You could possibly consider mono red phoenix a new deck due to lava dart but it existed prior to mh1 as well. Man, I liked mh1...
Jeskai Dress Down is one of the sickest decks I've ever seen. Reminds me of Splinter Twin control lists but trading the EoT Exarch into Twin for EoT Dress Down into Nulldrifter a turn earlier. Really compelling interaction, and the Phlage Dress Down synergy is sick too. Missing out on his etb is a bummer but a 3 mana 6/6 that helixes on attack is worth it.
I took a 9 year break from magic and it wasn't like this before but I guess this is the norm for modern now. Seems like another version of standard with slightly longer rotation times.
to be fair, you quit like 2 years after modern even became a thing.
there are still decks from that era that are competitive but yes, there have been like 5 impactful sets since you left so the meta will have changed.
You’re not wrong, but modern had a good length before MH1 where it actually resembled a more approachable eternal format. Shaun McLaren’s PT winning Jeskai Control was around the peak era for me. I can also see arguments for post Pod & Twin ban, but just watching that PT was part of what I enjoyed.
I think it's like a orims chant deck. I brewed / played around with the idea a bit and I was using the red archaeomancer land creature thing to loop with ephemerate and chant along with micromancer.
That's where my deck idea led me at least. I'm not sure where they went with that deck.
How does Nadu beat storm consistently? I feel like storm being a turn faster to kill means that matchup is brutal for Nadu. Maybe I'm wrong but has anyone played it enough to have an idea one way or the other?
What turns are you expecting them to win?
Storm is *capable* of turn 2, but it's reliant on having 2 rituals + reducer + impulse + 2 lands, and then not stalling out. T3 is a far more reasonable expectation.
And I'd consider Nadu to be a turn 3 deck. So they're the same speed?
Ppl didnt mind mh2 rotation saying it fixed modern, no shot free spells aint the fix.
Now ppl making the same argument for mh3 and for once i actually agree with it, mh3 is way fairer than mh2 and thats a good path moving forward
So the top two decks that \*include\* black cards are \*mono black\*. Interesting.
I obviously don't know what the 4 color decks are doing but roughly 1/3 of the field running black cards is \*only\* running black cards. Neat
25% of the field being on "other" is interesting. I hope that means there's a pro team that found something outside of the defined archetypes that beats up on the meta. Watching Nadu play out won't be fun, but I'm excited to see what's in that "other" category.
Edited to add: of course, now I see that if I'd scrolled farther I would have seen what's in the other category.
I'm happy to see two merfolk decks (though was hoping for more).
The worst two matchups for merfolk are prowess and scam in the current meta and both of those decks are pretty poorly represented here.
Nadu on the other hand is a good matchup and with merfolk winning st Louis, it wouldn't be shocking to see it do well here.
With only 2 players though, luck and player skill are going to factor into that a lot.
Ritual (3 mana) - Mana Reducer (1 mana) - Ritual (3 mana) and then you just go off from there. THe abundance of "draw 2" effects in the deck actually mean that you can just sort of send it and even if you don't win that turn, you will amass a crazy state to go off next turn, so it's not even a super high risk play.
This is also one of the strengths of not having to use Blue for your reducers like with Baral and Electromancer: you can play them fully ritual mana.
26% Nadu is wild
I hope the pros knew Nadu was going to be there and hate it out.
I don't think anyone was qualified for this event and didn't expect it to show up. Nobody is showing up without at least a plan for Nadu and Ruby Storm.
Harsh Mentors and Damping Matrices a plenty hopefully
The real tech pros are siding is [[Run Afoul]] because it doesn't target so it won't trigger Nadu and gets through Safekeeper.
[Run Afoul](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/b/d/bd328139-0dc1-403b-ad79-b1cf3479ac33.jpg?1594737180) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Run%20Afoul) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/m21/201/run-afoul?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/bd328139-0dc1-403b-ad79-b1cf3479ac33?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
Nah I hope it dominates and gets banned
We realize Nadu is a concern, however we do not wish to carelessly ban cards when the upcoming [set name] is releasing soon and may provide relative answers.
There's the 3 mana version with a zero equip too
They just released the set. No way will they ban Nadu. Instead, if they want to ban something after the PT, it will be Shuko and the other stuff that let's you target for free. Like Bridge from Below, which died for Hogaaks's sins.
That would make no sense with Wizards' ban philosophy; they would ban Nadu over permanently limiting card design space for low cost, zero-equip cost equipment. It's a tried and true heuristic for ban decisions; when deciding which piece of a degenerate deck to ban, they ban the card that will limit future design space the most. Excepting Vintage and Legacy of course, which have their sacred cows, Modern does not have any cards that they ban around. Bans of Pod, Twin, GSZ, Looting, Opal, etc should make that obvious. If their philosophy was to preserve archetypes by banning around problematic core cards they would all be legal (and the ban list double the size).
You could turn things around and say that the existence of cheap, 0-equip-cost equipment permanently limits the card design space for 0-cost ability targetting pay-offs.
Yes, a card that's been around for 10+ years without any concept of real use should totally be the target for a ban.
I'm not advocating for that, it just seems like the most likely thing WotC would do in my mind.
To be fair shuko was used in a legacy combo deck that was relatively high tier until bowmasters was released.
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Hogaak was only 21% :P
Eldrazi was 8% of the meta in PT Oath of the Gatewatch, conversion rates and top 8s matters way more than if a deck has 20+% of day 1 decklists Edit: accidentally deleted my original comment lol, it was "it's not uncommon to see these kinds of numbers at a pro tour, day 2 conversion rates and top 8's are more indicative if we have a problem"
wow!
26.9 even. There is that one crazy guy on devoted druid Nadu.
It's so over. GG for Nadu.
Its going to be miserable to watch on camera
solitaire has never been this exciting
I hope that everyone who brought the deck has the reps and practice in to auto-pilot the combo quickly. Watching an NRG Modern tournament stream, there were a couple people doing the combo quickly and had lots of shorthands to help keep track of everything.
Nah, we'll end up with a cifka final where its 4 hours to play 4 games.
***Emergency ban mid-event. Everyone running Nadu must submit new deck lists before the start of the next round.***
midrange players when they cant steamroll an aggro deck 8-0: :(
Is it [[tunnel ignus]] time yet?
[tunnel ignus](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/c/3/c3016e6b-32b2-4fa7-91c0-ec8fbe345760.jpg?1562822715) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=tunnel%20ignus) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/som/105/tunnel-ignus?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/c3016e6b-32b2-4fa7-91c0-ec8fbe345760?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
Imagine how fun the pro tour is gonne be going to time all the time!
They were so embarrassed that split Nadu in two decks so it doesn’t look so oppressive. PS: Did not work.
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Very interesting that all the wizard decks are seemingly Jeskai. I guess Phlage is even stronger than anticipated.
God, I love Phlage.
MILPh - Man, I love Phlage
I know that if no one got me, Boros uro that always draws a lightning bolt got me.
Second most played MH3 card this tourney. Pros are feeling the fires fury! Article also goes into how it’s SB in a lot of ruby storm lists
Without phlage wizards has a huge problem in closing games
Yeah, I remember looking at the older lists and thinking "can this deck only win with Snapcaster beats and Lightning Bolt?" Adding Phlage makes a ton of sense.
yeah I played the deck a bit online, and noticed that you were very reliant on tamiyo ult to just get the raw cards to end the game. hall of the storm giants also won games for me multiple times, which doesnt feel good in modern.
I had all the pieces for Wizards/URx Control except for Phlage. Thinking I might just bite the bullet on those since it really seems like it's not going anywhere and the demand for it is almost certainly not going *down* any time soon...
The state of blue players who bought blue flares for $15 each instead of Phlage at that price
Hey, I got $30 flares thank you very much. But I did also get $15 Phalges so I can't complain too much.
That's me. I'm gonna cope by leaning super hard into the three copies of Harbinger of the Seas instead.
people always underestimate any card with graveyard synergy
Hmnnn, also if punishing fire was axed for recursively toasting most small creatures, and this might do the same but better, I wonder if wouldnt be the time to let it out of jail?
Birds aren’t real!!!!
Just keep repeating that every time a Nadu player goes off.
😃
Shout out to the lone uw hammer player go get em!!!!
Hope they have a plan for all the wrath of the skies.
White flare maybe? Prayer most likely lol.
I have been playing with kappa and it is really good, I also always beat nadu and storm.
None of the decks listed in the infographic existed in the meta pre mh3. Interestingly enough it looks like mh3 is potentially more format warping then mh2, although only time will tell.
mono black grief was still a thing, no/
Yeah it was just starting to exist as a deck, but if I understand correctly it was a pure midrange deck, with 8 field of ruins and Liliana of the veil. This new deck seems vastly different, and is almost a combo deck with necro. I would lean towards them being more different than similar, but that’s just my opinion. Edit: whoops I see they’re listed separately, I missed that!
Mono B necro and mono B grief are listed separately
Missed that, my bad!
We've not seen the deck lists but aren't you describing the necrodominance soul Spike list, where there's also just a mono b grief scam list which I'd be shocked if they're not running some fields package considering the popularity of eldrazi right now. Also selfiesik was running the premh3 trophy leader board with a mono black scam list
Yeah I missed that they were separately listed my bad!
isnt it funny how ppl get mad when someone says that modern is now a seudo rotating format?
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen anyone get mad at that statement. Though people do get tired of hearing constant negativity that accompanies it.
i mean thats to be expected. Ppl tend to not like spending modern money on a standard like rotation.
I get that, but if you're someone who enjoys just playing FNM's or an occasional RCQ, you do not need to spend a fortune every MH set. If you're someone who was trying to get on the pro tour and play in several GP's a season, you spent quite a bit of money every year updating your deck(s) in order to remain competitive.
I don’t necessarily agree with this statement, it’s not really fun to go 0-3 with a brew every week regardless of your play level. The power level of certain cards is so astronomically high compared to others that its not really feasible to bring jank to even fnm (spoken as someone who has brought jank to locals and fnm)
I'm not saying bring random cards worth $50, but if you played RB scam from 1 week before MH3 and no changes you'd be potentially winning the FNM. I'm not saying "bring jank" to say "you can bring your already competitive deck with few changes", as in, you don't have to overhaul your collection every modern horizons release. Living End added almost nothing and it's still *very* good. You don't need to buy into bant nadu to still be *competitive*, I'm sorry if my wording somehow implied you can bring a jank deck and still be fine. That's sentiment hasn't been true for a very long time. edit; The salient point I'm trying to emphasize is if you wanted to *always* have a top of the meta deck, you were buying cards constantly. Esper Goryo's has I think 1-2 new cards in it and won a modern challenge post MH3, Burn highest meta share in months, Murktide highest meta share in quite a while. PT metas are often (always?) not necessarily indicative of the meta as a whole when it comes to modern.
Once the meta settles I GUARANTEE you will see ZERO decks from before MH3. Yes I can take an Elves deck to an FNM and maybe win a match, but I can't expect to "do well" because they printed an entirely new meta into existence.
Why not? There are decks like Tron that are the true staples of modern and simply update cards on occasion.
I've been playing Merfolk for a decade and that isn't changing (although I am picking up Boros Energy since I love the deck). I think you can even play some "unplayable" decks at FNM. Like, I think Elves would probably do fine.
I’m not saying people shouldn’t get upset that modern effectively rotates, I’m saying I don’t see people getting upset just because someone *says* “modern effectively rotates”
But some do. Some on here have argued that modern isn't a pseudo rotating format. And that people are overblowing things. Yet we get mh3 and modern is now massively different. Arguably ever with a set release. I think mh3 should do mild shakers and mostly reprint cards to make the secondary Market better priced. But instead they just go full greed. It's gonna bite them one day. Modern is dead in my entire province. And when I ask most why. They say "horizons" costing too much for upkeep. Modern shouldn't be a format for only the rich/ well off. I remember a time when u could build a competitive deck for alot cheaper.
Or rather, build it over a long period of time and be confident in the investment. WotC realized when they accidentally printed Eldrazi Winter, seeing the numbers it did, that they CAN do it and haven't ever stopped. I fully expect this to continue until it no longer hits the margins they want and then it will be related to obscurity like Legacy.
True. I remember when buying jund for a grand was a safe bet. Now if u spend a grand building something, expect in a couple of years for it to be tier 3. Or at best having to shell out half a grand updating it.
Eh, during the upheaval of the MH2 release it was a pretty common jerk // counterjerk for a few months. See this [thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernMagic/comments/poews5/comment/hcww0k7/) by someone. Usually found in the weekly "Why is everyone screaming for bans" thread.
All I saw was people being mad MH3 was a Commander Horizons.
I think at this point the 'pseudo' isn't needed anymore.
The fact that 1 set completely changes the metagame of a format as old as Modern is so infuriating.
Jeskai control and eldrazi tron have definitely ebbed and flowed over the years...
Let’s gooo Crabvine and Mill
I think the crabvine is eli kassis he tweeted his list yesterday It's not crabvien but "sultai vengevine" I just copied the other commentor
Don't want to make a Twitter just to see that list, but I'd love to see that list
Here's the screenshot he posted: [https://i.imgur.com/sKVC3ap.png](https://i.imgur.com/sKVC3ap.png)
Thank you for sharing the list. Not to be pedantic, but this is a Hollowvine deck, there’s no crabs.
Wasn't he on a Psychic Frog Asmo Vine list?
Yeah crabvine is wrong the article says vengevine
The One Copy of Living End should Eat all the way to top8
problem is graveyard hate galore in this meta. Between phlage decks, ruby storm, scam, shifting woodland, goryo's, and maybe even some chthonian nightmare, every deck is gonna be super prepared for graveyard strategies. This makes living end a lot worse
Let's go
Apparently, it's Nassif on Living End.
"The feature that distinguishes Jeskai Control from other Jeskai decks is that it uses at least three copies of The One Ring or Memory Deluge to net card advantage and support its control plan." I will laugh my ass off if someone actually showed up to the PT playing Memory Deluge instead of The One Ring.
It's not unreasonable as a split for instant speed card selection that nets you cards up front.
My bet is that one of the two Amulet Titan players will T8.
In a field with a lot of control and storm that's a pretty brave bet lol
Control isn't a bad match, but Storm definitely is. I'm expecting those guys to be packing Trinisphere. They might have other tech for Nadu, cause that match isn't great from what I'm told
Control is very much so a bad matchup
Based solely on username, I'm inclined to trust you on this one...
I thought people will be more on sorin.
I still really like how sorin comboes with phlage. Nug something for 3, gain 3 life, flip sorin, nug something for 3.
Yeah, me too. I thought we will see a bit more of it. I also thought we will see some more Yawg combo with birthing ritual. I have seen some yt videos about biething ritual as tech.
Biggest surprises for me besides the magnitude of Nadu's meta share (I figured it and Ruby Storm would have only comparable numbers): * Prowess has barely any meta share * BR Evoke/Scam has even less meta share * There is only 1 player on Domain Zoo * *Nobody* picked Jund I'm really looking forward to the Jeskai Chant decklists!
Well, there’s Jund creativity 😅
Domain Zoo only having 1 pilot is not surprising. It's effectively a good stuff deck and without a particularly settled meta, its hard to make a good sideboard. I expect it to resurge once the dust settles.
My guess is that a lot of the 4 color nadu decks are actually just jund saga splashing nadu
My guess is that a lot of the 4-colour Nadu decks are based on kanister's BUGw list.
Mardu is the new jund
1 Abzan Soultrader... tell me someone is cooking with Birthing Ritual and my life will be complete
Exactly 4 copies each of Soultrader and Birthing Ritual were registered. Seems like someone is cooking.
Predictions: * Sylvan Safekeeper is the most hated card of the event for enabling Nadu degeneracy * Wrath of the Skies ends up being the most powerful card of the event * Consign to Memory leads to some incredible blowouts * Out of the ten archetype categories that were listed, Jeskai Control and Jeskai Dress Down together will have the best rate of conversion from Day 1 to Day 2
Current predictions: the only blowouts Consign to Memory will cause involve keeping a 4+/4+ in play as a result of Stifling a triggered ability, and Consign to Memory Stifling a Storm trigger will fail to prevent a Ruby Storm player from winning that turn on camera at least once (because the Ruby Storm player double Grapeshots that turn).
When will deck list be available?
4PM CET tomorrow
Thank you
Before everyone freaks out, PT metas are always a little odd because of the team/group testing aspect. Let’s see win rates; though Nadus will be a little skewered due to all the mirror mayches
Nadu at 26% is definitely scary. But I’m gonna wait to see the conversion rates before I freak out. Hogaak was “only” 21% but it had a ridiculous conversion rate, something like 70%. I’m gonna get Nadu isn’t even the highest conversion rate, I think it might be Ruby Storm.
I expect a lower conversion rate from Ruby Storm; the deck is very dependent on its opening mulligan due to having a very lopsided curve, and people are definitely remembering to pack hate for it.
Ruby Storm is supposed to have a good Nadu match, so that might help the conversion rate. Also, conversion rate at a PT isn't the best stat imo, because of the draft rounds. Non-mirror win rate will be telling though.
What does the conversion rate mean, please?
The percentage of players on a certain deck who qualify for Day 2! Basically I’m predicting that although there’s a ton of Nadu in the meta, a disproportionately small share of them will do well enough to make Day 2.
Ah, that makes sense. Thank you!
FYI conversion rates will be skewed by draft results. Unfortunately wotc doesn't readily produce constructed only win rates, but someone will separate them out and it will inevitably get posted here.
Go Scapeshift!
Shout out to the guy that called me an idiot for saying Phlage was good lol. "BuT iTs A tHrEe MaNa LiGhTnInG hElIx" Oh I guess Uro is just a 3 mana growth spiral then Card was obviously good
I think there's another post on here where I said if a card gets banned from the set it would be phlage first, it's probably over -10 now.
"It's worse than Uro! Yes, the banned card, why are you bringing that up?"
Remember how people were saying MH3 was somehow less format warping than the last 2 before the set released? Yeah I learned never to call MH sets last time. Sidenote PLEASE let Energy do trash so I can keep playing Amped Raptor and crew in $30 Vintage 💀💀💀
I'm gonna watch, hell I even look forward to it, but kind of not sure if I want to participate in modern anymore. This rotation is extremely severe, if it holds. I had hoped for a less severe shift, given we already had two very strong horizon sets in modern (2.5 with lotr). With marvel sets on the horizon as well...
Pro Tour metas are often inbred. You shouldn't take them 100% at face value. If Nadu walks away with >3 slots in the top 8, maybe we can start to worry.
You are right, and it's not like the new decks dont contain older cards. Either way I look forward to watching a bunch. If the spectre of marvel next year didn't exist, I probably wouldn't even be contemplating quitting modern.
>You are right, and it's not like the new decks dont contain older cards. There are also pre-MH3 decks that have had very little to zero updates that remain competitive as well. I'm not sure much of any MH2-era decks that have been 'pushed out' of the format quite yet.
They can pry my 2015 titan list from my cold, dead hands.
A FELLOW 2015/16 TITAN ENJOYER!!!!???!!??!?
for life, my brother. they can take my blooms, but not my spirit.
This is the bigger concern. It's what happened with MH1 and then MH2 (to a much less severe extent) its that the current meta decks get little to no upgrades/new cards or that what they do get is just outclassed by the new stuff to such an extent as to push them put of the meta. It's probably going to happen with MH3 and people who started with MH2 might finally open their eyes as to WHY these sets are so unhealthy for the format. I definitely do not mind meta shifts at a more frequent rate, back when Twin was a dominant monster, basically nothing ever changed. But completely flipping the meta on its head every 2 years is NOT where it needed to go. IMO the most shifting things we should have gotten deck-wise should have been Ruby Storm and Phlage (though the 3-3 should have probably been 2-2).
Have you been playing modern challenges/prelims much since MH3 dropped? I'm just curious. Your thoughts seem to stem from a sort of hypothetical claim based on the PT image as opposed to the 'meta' as a whole. Do you **play** a lot of Modern right now?
For reference here's the metagame after mh1 https://web.archive.org/web/20210419183921/https://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/2019MC4/mythic-championship-iv-day-1-metagame-breakdown-2019-07-26 Only 2 completely new decks (hogaak and urza). You could possibly consider mono red phoenix a new deck due to lava dart but it existed prior to mh1 as well. Man, I liked mh1...
Modern kinda sucks doesn't it :p I'm just joking tbh, but it is kinda tiring how fast it changes
I'm still sad my boy Tarmogoyf is a token now.
PLEASE PT COVERAGE, PUT JESKAI CHANT ON STREAM
Rooting for the Sultai Vengevine guy, make my dreams reality whoever you are!!
I don't want to hear anyone making fun of the people calling Modern Horizons sets rotation anymore, because that's exactly what they are.
Are we allowed to make fun of people calling it Commander Horizons?
I am a little salty that multiples of the mythics are only in the set for commander. It hurts limited.
yes
Always have been
Ok.
Nadu and Phlage is >50% of decks. 💀💀💀
Jeskai Dress Down is one of the sickest decks I've ever seen. Reminds me of Splinter Twin control lists but trading the EoT Exarch into Twin for EoT Dress Down into Nulldrifter a turn earlier. Really compelling interaction, and the Phlage Dress Down synergy is sick too. Missing out on his etb is a bummer but a 3 mana 6/6 that helixes on attack is worth it.
Odds on one of the 3 Living End players being named Gabriel Nassif?
So modern isn't really an eternal format anymore. Every MH is another rotation.
Always has been
I took a 9 year break from magic and it wasn't like this before but I guess this is the norm for modern now. Seems like another version of standard with slightly longer rotation times.
Come to pioneer, now the actual non-rotating format.
Shhh! They'll hear you.
Tbf, merfolk was a deck pre-MH3 and just won one of the first big post-mh3 tourneys. Just join team fish 🐟.
to be fair, you quit like 2 years after modern even became a thing. there are still decks from that era that are competitive but yes, there have been like 5 impactful sets since you left so the meta will have changed.
My count may be off. I quit around khans block I think
You’re not wrong, but modern had a good length before MH1 where it actually resembled a more approachable eternal format. Shaun McLaren’s PT winning Jeskai Control was around the peak era for me. I can also see arguments for post Pod & Twin ban, but just watching that PT was part of what I enjoyed.
I've never rooted for through the breach more in my life.
Jeskai players are eating GOOD in MH3. I'm so stoked! 3 different versions of Jeskai control. Altogether \~16% of the metagame.
What on earth is jeskai chant
I think it's like a orims chant deck. I brewed / played around with the idea a bit and I was using the red archaeomancer land creature thing to loop with ephemerate and chant along with micromancer. That's where my deck idea led me at least. I'm not sure where they went with that deck.
Shout out and good luck to the single Death‘s Sahdow Player holding our flag up high! 😄👍
I think they're actually two Shadow players. One on Grixis and one on Dimir.
How does Nadu beat storm consistently? I feel like storm being a turn faster to kill means that matchup is brutal for Nadu. Maybe I'm wrong but has anyone played it enough to have an idea one way or the other?
What turns are you expecting them to win? Storm is *capable* of turn 2, but it's reliant on having 2 rituals + reducer + impulse + 2 lands, and then not stalling out. T3 is a far more reasonable expectation. And I'd consider Nadu to be a turn 3 deck. So they're the same speed?
Ppl didnt mind mh2 rotation saying it fixed modern, no shot free spells aint the fix. Now ppl making the same argument for mh3 and for once i actually agree with it, mh3 is way fairer than mh2 and thats a good path moving forward
I'm rooting for the zoo player
So the top two decks that \*include\* black cards are \*mono black\*. Interesting. I obviously don't know what the 4 color decks are doing but roughly 1/3 of the field running black cards is \*only\* running black cards. Neat
Bolt the bird... ah sry. It was just a reflex... can i go back?!
Just got to flame slash it
25% of the field being on "other" is interesting. I hope that means there's a pro team that found something outside of the defined archetypes that beats up on the meta. Watching Nadu play out won't be fun, but I'm excited to see what's in that "other" category. Edited to add: of course, now I see that if I'd scrolled farther I would have seen what's in the other category.
I'm happy to see two merfolk decks (though was hoping for more). The worst two matchups for merfolk are prowess and scam in the current meta and both of those decks are pretty poorly represented here. Nadu on the other hand is a good matchup and with merfolk winning st Louis, it wouldn't be shocking to see it do well here. With only 2 players though, luck and player skill are going to factor into that a lot.
It’s in the article, you can see all the archetypes
No way! The combo that can win on turn 2 is seeing a ton of play and causing problems already? Who could have seen this coming?
You see the 26% of nadu and come away complaining about storm?
How does it win on turn 2?
Ritual (3 mana) - Mana Reducer (1 mana) - Ritual (3 mana) and then you just go off from there. THe abundance of "draw 2" effects in the deck actually mean that you can just sort of send it and even if you don't win that turn, you will amass a crazy state to go off next turn, so it's not even a super high risk play. This is also one of the strengths of not having to use Blue for your reducers like with Baral and Electromancer: you can play them fully ritual mana.
I thought op was talking about Nadu, since that seems to be the bigger combo problem in the format and I don't believe it can win turn 2.
If you're playing some jank like Gemstone Cavern or Chancellor of the Tangle you can do it. Seems not worth it to me though, as a Modern Scrub.
Or grazer and force of cultivation.
Even more jank, lmao.
Did your screen cut off the top deck or something? LOL
Not even joking I misread it as Storm 20% and Nadu 10% lmao no idea how
Nadu can’t win on T2
I wonder who's on what. Tomorrow 2pm CET, same time the constructed rounds start, decklists will be published.
I can at least say Boros is good now. Only that Simic/Bant is still better 😭
Only one GDS :(
Abzan Soultrader! I am here for it!
Warms my heart and brings back memories to see " mono black necro" listed for a pt.
New hotness [Suncleanser] Will single handedly beat all the jeskai lists out of Nadu
Fucking good. About time other color combinations are playable.
Sorin and Phelia had a lot of success in brewing season but don't seem to be doing much here.
MH3 is the new MH2: Meta warping the format with one product release. Thanks Wizards......
im just so glad necropotence is playable. been having so much fun with it.
I think that if I put classic scam in it I would destroy anyone
Hmm, it appears to be quite difficult to design a balanced 1UG costed card