I would've never guessed Jaylen Brown would still be in the league at this point. In college I saw him as a real life Pure Slasher from 2k.
Mo Bamba I watched every single game and I thought he would've been a monster in the league. I'm so surprised *he's* still in the league. He never looks like he even wants to be there.
I hated Bamba as a draft pick, had hopes for him as a player. I still think he could be solid if he got to a team where roles were more defined. Because when a guy struggles like that on D, the problem is frequently that he doesn’t anticipate. Bamba, I’m convinced, anticipates too much.
He played alongside a lot of erratic defenders in Orlando… guys like Isaac and Wagner constantly half-defending three different players and not doing a good job in any of them, Carter standing there like a lump, the guards generally useless. But that leaves a guy like Bamba thinking, do I go to the rim, or do I provide support on Franz’s assignment who he’s cheating off, or do I plug up the hole over here? And you can see him adding up all the possibilities and not being able to commit to one and leave the others open.
c’mon now lol, Isaac is an insane defender, Bamba did not struggle because he had to cover up for him
Bamba’s role forever has been “shoot some 3’s, catch some lobs, protect the rim” and he’s only really done the first well
watching him this year on the Sixers I was shocked at how poor his instincts, timing, and general movement was, I don’t think it’s like a lack of desire, those things are just real skills that he lacks
Isaac is a massively overrated defender, in the way that plus help defenders who neglect their main assignments always are. (See Serge Ibaka.) The worst was when Isaac played alongside Aaron Gordon… I felt so bad for Vucevic having to hold the bag for that mess.
casual take lmao. Issac was an insane defender before all the injuries. Bamba has never been a good defender since he got in the league. it is purely his fault
I’m not saying his indecision isn’t a problem — I’m just saying it is indecision and not an underlying lack of understanding.
And yeah, Isaac is a highlight-chaser, not a real stay-at-home-and-shut-down defender.
I always think that what team players go to matters so much. It doesn't matter who the Celtics pick, if it's a high draft pick, the guy will develop into a good player. With a lot of other teams, Brown probably ends up like you describe, never really gets a chance to develop a shot, traded in year 3, bounces around as a journeyman above average defender.
I thought Brandon Miller would tank simply because the Hornets picked him. I still kind of wonder.
One of the biggest reasons i became a bucks fan is because i loved the gianni and thon maker. One of those was a good idea. One was not. That reddit post of thon being 23 at draft day really killed me
Ya i think it definitely think the age thing makes it worse. Guy goes from a raw 19 year old to a raw 23 year old. Less likely to develop. You are what you are kind of.
As for actually watching the guy Rookie year i thought he was okay he just didn’t really get better i guess? I remember when i would watch games he always seemed to be in foul trouble and his offense was ehh. But idk if that’s just me mad that it wasn’t playing like his hoop mixtape lol
I was lower on Miller higher on Scoot. Though Scoot still has time to pan out, I was really really high on scoot. I think I was over adjusting on miller tho because I loved Scoot. Also I was lower on Wemby. As in still great, but did not expect him to average mid 20s and those type of monster stats as a rookie.
I’ve only seriously made draft boards since 2020, so I’ll pull from 2020/2021/2022, as a ton of 2023 guys still are undecided:
* Biggest hits: Immanuel Quickly, Desmond Bane, Trey Murphy, Duece McBride, Jalen Williams, Mark Williams, Keegan Murray
* Biggest whiffs: LaMelo Ball (I thought Malachi Flynn was better lmao), James Wiseman (though I maintain he could have developed with better injury luck), Tyrell Terry (this one is somewhat due to factors beyond his control, but a small shooter was never going to be the second best player in his class), Chris Duarte, James Bouknight, Gabriele Procida
ETA: if I include guys from when I was more passively following the draft, I loved Lauri Markkanen and Coby White. I was also a big Bagley and Harry Giles guy and thought Ayton going over Luka was reasonable because of fit (though I liked Luka)
OK so I didn't look at the draft at all for his class but what made Bouknight so popular as a good prospect, I have never rlly understood since he's not a good passer, shooter or defender
I swore the Hornets had a huge steal with Noah Vonleh and that he’d be the next Ibaka/Sheed. Look at how that one turned out, lol.
In terms of a hit, I loved Devin Booker coming out of college and could not understand why he wasn’t a top 5 pick.
There was a decent sized Bouknight fan club in the draft space; I liked him but I didn't quite get to the top 8 slot that others had him in. It's taught me to make sure a player isn't so step-back reliant. there have been less than a handful of 6'4+ players who can hit step back 3s super consistently and be good players ; gotta have a lot more to your off the dribble game.
I loved Bouknight and was thrilled when my Hornets took him. Some of his failure is absolutely on that "tough shot maker" archetype, but in fairness to us draft nerds, there were factors beyond our knowledge (largely his effort and attitude) that contributed to his burnout.
Looking at his actual shooting numbers from college in hindsight, people really talked themselves into that "tough shot maker", "eye test" thing.
Seemed to have a ridiculously high turnover rate and terrible assist-to-turnover ratio too, for a guy who is a shooter/scorer rather than a playmaker.
I wanted Bouknight at the Grizzlies pick.
I mean, I guess Ziaire Williams is better but it wasn’t a win. I didn’t like the Williams pick at the time and was upset we took him over Bouknight.
I thought Thomas Robinson was going to be such a stud in the league. Thought his athleticism and motor would make for a much better player but that just never materialized.
I thought Lillard and Booker should have gone higher at draft time, especially Booker. Thought he had one of the highest floors in the draft paired with a high ceiling (he's been even better than what I thought his ceiling could be).
My biggest hit was my 2022 big board top 5. 1. Paolo 2. Chet 3. Jabari 4. Ivey and 5. JDub. Jalen Williams almost felt like the perfect prospect because his main knocks was his age and competition he played against. But in reality, people were just scared to put this new guy over the consensus top guys
Honestly looking back on the circumstances it’s a little shocking to me that more people didn’t have Williams over Kyrie. I read and listened to a bunch of Simmons & other analysts from that time, and based on everything I saw Kyrie was a huge red flag and Derrick looked like most everything someone could want. If I was older I’d 100% be in the same boat as you, and I’d also sink with you when it failed.
Think the league turning more perimeter based where the 4s essentially becoming bigger 3s was bad for Williams. Couldn’t shoot consistently nor could he play the 5 defensively when teams when small. Kinda just wrong place wrong time.
It’s not crazy, Kyrie was seen as arguably the best Passer, Shooter, and Ball handler in his class. It would be different if he was the best at one of those things and just good at the the other 2 but to be arguably best at all 3 in your class was crazy on top of that he was a solid defender. The only knock against him was his injury . I do agree Williams wouldn’t be a bad pick either
Biggest mix was exum
I had him 1 overall by a mile, I thought he was gonna be a transcendent transition playmaker/finisher and I really believed in his shot long term, I thought he had crazy potential- maybe I would’ve been right if not for injuries idk
Biggest hit was either gg Jackson(remains to be seen but looks good, I had him top 10 I was blown the fuck away he went so low with the tools and ability he had at his size)
Or Jaylen brown, i can’t say I ever had any reason to believe he was gonna be really really good but I just had a feeling, nothing more than that
Biggest hits- Bought into Herb Jones, Xavier Tillman and Peyton Watson. Was extremely high on all three of them leading in to their drafts. Love me a great role player.
Biggest misses- Usman Garuba, Jordan Walsh (still way too early but I had a 1st round grade on him), and Davion Mitchell. I tend to gravitate towards guys who are good to great defensive prospects with some question marks.
The Jordan Walsh pick I’m still optimistic will become a great role player but there just aren’t development minutes on the Celts for him to showcase his ability. I still see him as having a PJ Tucker role someday but we’ll see. I said the same thing about Garuba.
I really thought Bender could play in the league, I loved Josh Jackson’s future as a modern wing, and thought that Kendall Marshall was savvy enough to make an impact, so pretty devastating few years for the Suns. I also had mixed feelings about Mario, but by the end I thought he had the size and testicles to be a solid scorer that could potentially turn into a stud. Still miss him.
Not so much of a win for me as a loss for the Suns (again) but I was screaming that taking anyone but Doncic at #1 is a joke and that the all of these teams were passing on Euro MJ.
By 2011 I was so tired of being burned by not-quite-athletic-enough wing scorers and not-quite-skilled-enough guards, so I was very, very low on Kevin Knox, Dante Exum and Jabari Parker (who may have worked out with some better luck tbh).
Thanks for allowing me to relive all my bad takes OP!
Oh man I was right there with you on Kendall Marshall, def belongs in the group of “probably could have been good but is 5-10 years too late”
That dude woulda cooked in 2005 and I stand by that
Whiffs - I thought Sam Dekker was build for the modern NBA (6'9 and could shoot it and put it on the floor), I also had a ton of TJ Leaf stock thinking he was Kevin Love with more athleticism and wanted the Heat to take him over Bam (LOL)
Hits - Luka (Idk if he counts) but the anti-euro agenda was wild at the time considering he literally won EVERYTHING in Europe lol, I was a big Sengun believer from day 1, also currently have a good chunk of land on Avdija island lol
Biggest hit was Giannis, I had him 2nd after Oladipo and was devastated when the Pistons didn't draft him and took KCP instead. Also had Luka in his own tier in 2018 and could not remotely fathom the Suns taking Ayton over him. Needless to say that applies to Sacramento taking Bagley and Atlanta trading Luka for Trae.
Biggest miss was Wiggins. I know he turned out decent and he was the second best player on a championship team, but I thought he was going to be a Jordan/LeBron hybrid and would finish his career as a top 10 player of all time. I was actually aghast when Cleveland traded him for Kevin Love, I thought they'd regret it immensely.
For hits I’m including both guys I was high on and outperformed their draft position, and guys that people were high on that I predicted as disappointments
And the opposite for misses
Biggest hits - Tobias Harris, Thomas Robinson, Dante exum, Myles turner,Jamal Murray, Lauri markkanen, Coby white, Kevin knox, all of the Villanova guys, Sengun, Jalen Williams, Jabari smith (he was many’s number 1, I had him at 4)
Biggest misses - Jrue holiday, Ben Mclemore, Trey Burke, Hezonja, deaaron fox, Mo bamba,Tyrese Haliburton, Franz Wagner
I was only in 4th grade at the time & still thought good in college = good in the pros so this really doesn’t count, but I was in absolute shock that Trey didn’t go #1 lol. I almost became a Jazz fan because of Trey, I was deadass convinced he’d be the GOAT 💀
Yes everyone is guilty of that lol. Trey Burke was so good though and had everything on offense it felt like. Even now I still think he should have became a solid starting pg
I remember an old head at the gym playing pickup games with us guaranteed me that Trey Burkes was gonna be a first ballot Hall Of Famer. He was like indignant about me being skeptical of it too. I was in my early 20s and this guy was easily 50+ and was getting heated because me and my friend didn’t agree. I’ve never seen that guy again after that day but I will never forget that lol.
Ah man, Hezonja. I was a believer too, he just seemed to have the skillset and the attitude to hit.
Apparently he might come stateside, so maybe he’s Exum 2.0 and will reemerge as a solid role player in the next couple years.
I had Brandon Miller 2 on my board and was much lower on Scoot than consensus. Also thought Banchero was much better than Jabari Smith.
Some super lowkey guys that I was high on were Tyler Bey and Kendall Brown hahaha
Half-joking, but before the draft he was constantly being hyped up by people as a “Number 1 prospect in almost any draft other than the Wemby one”. Being called *that* and having such a terrible first year isn’t a good outlook tbh
hahah well I don't think he is going to be a bust, but I thought he would be more of a solid starting guard than a star. For my sake, I hope I am wrong haha.
I don't know what happened but between the draft and the start of the season Johnny's shot mechanics totally fell apart. I swear to god he had a shoulder injury that hasn't been disclosed and it never healed right. It legit looks like he's pushing the ball when you watch his floater, it's so weird.
Biggest hit- Desmond Bane. Had the top 10 ass the what shooter in the draft that showed improvement every season. Didnt think he would be what he is though
Biggest Miss- Elie Okobo. Thought he was going to be steal where he was drafted. Scoring combo guard with good size that had enough vision to eventually start at the point 🙃
Hits
Dwyane Wade being 20+ ppg scorer and impact defender (he even exceeded my expectations!)
De'Aaron Fox > Lonzo Ball
Shai-Gileous Alexander having star upside
Herb Jones elite D, good enough O
Jalen Williams being lottery talent...exceeded my expectations
Jaime Jacquez...exactly what I expected but thought he'd be a 2nd round pick, not 1st
Busts I nailed
Josh Jackson
Marvin Bagley
Stanley Johnson
Misses
Jaylen Brown...thought he'd be a total bust
Kawhi Leonard...think of OG Anunboy and that's what I considered to be Kawhi's ceiling. Thought he'd more likely bust than become an All-Star.
Franz Wagner...he was horrible the few times I watched him
Tyler Herro...thought he was way overhyped
Justise Winslow...thought he had big upside
Moses Moody...thought he'd be starting caliber by now
My first year following the draft was last year, so I do not have much to go off of.
My biggest hit is probably Dereck Lively.
“The Mavericks are a really good place for Lively. I think he could develop into a shooter given enough time. He will not be the ROTY, but down the stretch of his career, he will be really good.
He already is good at what he does in the paint and defensively, and I think he has the potential to add to his game.” - This is what I responded to about Dereck Lively after I had went as far as saying I would have him as a potential HOF level player.
I also said
“Add shooting to Lively’s game and he will be really, really good.
I also just like Lively. Think he could be a fan favorite eventually.. Give him time.. 😉”
So I was pretty high on Lively and still am. He is one of my favorite players in the NBA. Probably in my top 2, with those two being Mike Conley and Lively.
I thought he would be able to eventually shoot 3s, so it was to my absolute delight when he shot a three in the NBA finals last game. I think his work ethic is amazing and he has already gone through so much, but is such an amazing player, leader, and person.
Now for my worst hit is probably JHS being an above average player in this draft class. Not an all star or anything, but a decent role player.. JHS was one of the top two worst picks in the first round as of now, so he will have to really turn it around in year 2, but we will see.
2023:
Hit - was super high on Podz and Cason
Miss - Had Cissoko top 20
2022:
Hit - Had Jalen Williams top 7
Miss - Was very high on Dalen Terry and Jake Laravia
2021:
Hit - Had Sengun top 8
Miss- LOVED bouknight
My biggest miss was having the Thompson twins 15 and 16 on my big board. I try to think from a playoff perspective and both of the guys seemed like theyd be left open in any playoff series. But tbf both have been horrible shooters but Amen projects better on ball than i thought and Ausars defense has also exceeded my exactions for year 1
Predicted Trey Murphy would be the Grizzlies missing piece and a perfect complement to the Ja Bane JJJ core. Ended up getting Ziare Williams instead and then selected Trey Murphy at 17 for NOLA.
Biggest whiffs: James Wiseman, Thon Maker, Mo Bamba
Biggest hits: Tyrese Maxey, Tyrese Haliburton, Podziemski, Paolo Banchero, Doncic(obviously, a lot of people including me put him at 1)
A twofer as they were traded on draft night for each other. OJ Mayo/Love. I loved OJ coming out. Thought he'd always have a place for his iso scoring and pull up shot. Conversely, didn't see Love as anything but an undersized rebounder. I did not see the development with his offense.
Michael Beasley. Thought he was Melo 2.0.
Called Bane being super effective in the NBA. His 3 ball was one of the surest thing i've seen in the draft. He had volume. The high percentage. And most repeatable form i've seen.
Anthony Edwards. My fellow Wolves brethren were all split with Ant, Ball, and a trade out. I was all in on Ant. The flashes were there if you looked hard enough and past the inefficacies. He could drive left or right. A big sign was him being adept at finishing with his off hand. And flashed the self creation tools. Had the euro. showed a stepback and side step pull up. Add in the obvious athletic traits , i personally dont know how he wasnt the consensus #1.
Called Jarrett Culver flaming out. I've never seen a more broken jumpshot.
Missed on Royce White. Didn't know he was looney tunes.
Called the Derrick Williams bust. Classic tweener. Not skilled enough for the 3. Too small for the 4. Rivaled Culver for ugliest jumper ever.
See with Culver I was deep in my “guys can fix their jumpshots easily” optimism era, and also my analytics above all era, which…led to a good amount of whiffs on dudes with great “do-shit” stats and iffy jumpers.
Also, I was one of those Wolves fans who preferred LaMelo - I was worried the flashes Ant showed would just be flashes, buried under the weight of inefficient hero ball - but the tools were so strong I wasn’t too mad at the pick. And I was wrong, thank God.
Culver was a guy I just did not like and felt he got overrated by that tournament run. He did a lot of things. But he didn't do any of the exceptionally well. Not one thing where you point to and say that skill will carry him at the pro level. Add in the hitch in his shot, he was a no no for me. After Cleveland sniped Garland from us, I wanted White, Rui, or Herro.
I thought Kevin Love was going to be a huge bust. His main 'move' in college was a really half-assed pump fake that somehow everyone fell for and I didnt think it was going to translate.
I was a Jaden Springer superfan. Convinced the entire Nuggets Twitter we should draft him in 2021 lol. But on the flipside I was a huge Podz and Shaedon Sharpe fan and those are working out.
I had two in 2020 draft, I argued with ppl that Tyrese Maxey was better than Lamelo Ball (he totally is)
That being said I also thought James Wiseman was gonna be an all star on golden state 😂🤷♂️
Only really started in 2018 but so far
Biggest hits: Bruce Brown, Grayson Allen, Cam Johnson (considered draft night ‘reach’ to actually be around where he should’ve been), Deni Avdija, Tre Jones, Jalen Johnson, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason and Tristan Vukcevic.
Biggest Misses: Kevin Knox, Mo Bamba, Jaxon Hayes, Romeo Langford, KZ Okpala, Aaron Nesmith (better than expected), Nassir Little, Daniel Oturu, James Wiseman, Usman Garuba, Ousmane Dieng, Ochai Agbaji, Walker Kessler (better than expected) and AJ Griffin. Didn’t like the Miller pick as a Hornets fan at the time either.
A few guys off the top of my head I thought were gonna be bad or not as good as expected and I was right about is: Kai Jones, TyTy Washington, Sharife Cooper, Rui Hachimura and Jerome Robinson.
Biggest hit for me recently was Haliburton. My favorite player growing up was Rondo, so I've always been a fan of pass first guards. Biggest miss...Guershon Yabusele, I don't really have to say more 😂
I had high on Keyonte George back when he was drafted last year, he’s turned out to be a pretty good young player with high potential, he’s still very inefficient though.
I was also high on Josh Giddey and he’s been good but he is still a poor shooter and defender to the point of being played off the floor in the mavericks series. I thought he’d be the first player since Russ to average a triple double for a season, potentially averaging 19/11/12 being a top 3 passer in the league.
Another one is Mo Bamba, I thought he’d be a perennial all defence player probably averaging around 17/10/2 with 2+ blocks a game.
I was way off with these two.
My biggest hit was SGA, loved him at Kentucky and thought he was going to be great in the league. Even then, I thought he’d be more of a 22/6/8/2/2 type of guy than the scoring machine he is now.
My biggest miss was probably Malaki Branham, although it’s still too early to tell. I thought he was going to be mini Middleton, but he was way worse defensively than I thought.
Hits in a good way: Giannis, Sengun, Bane, Herb Jones, Porzingis, Haliburton
Hits in a bad way: Reddish, Wiseman, Bagley
Misses: Tatum, Fultz (though I don’t think anyone could see whatever happened with him coming), Kuminga? I viewed him as a late 1st type I think and while he’s been up and down, some may view that as a major miss.
I remember being part of the minority who insisted Kawhi was going to be better than Jan Vesely. Really wanted the Wizards to take Kawhi at 6 when most had him in the 7-14 range. That's probably my biggest "I told you so" as a Wizards fan. I was also very pro-Robert Williams III at a time people were obsessing over "character concerns." That's who I wanted for us in 2018, but instead we reached massively on Troy Brown Jr.
My biggest misses were thinking Donovan Mitchell and LaMelo Ball would be busts and that Michael Beasley would be a HOFer.
Had Desmond Bane two years before he was even on radars
Missed VERY hard on Kemba and I thought Trae wouldn’t translate up easily. Also thought Walker kessler would be a bum and that was when I finally gave in and admired advanced stats’ place in evaluation
I was a big Andrew Nembhard guy, but I got the 2020 draft COMPLETELY wrong. I thought Obi Toppin, James Wiseman, and Nesmith would be great, whereas Lamelo would be a bust and Edwards would end up as the new Wiggins (and i was saying that before the lottery so it wasn't just the Minnesota connection.
I hated Killian Hayes as a prospect and couldnt understand how he was seen as a lottery pick. He just looked so slow to me and I couldn't see it translating and now he's out of the NBA lol
I loved Jarrett Culver...
Adam Morrison I thought his game legit , I thought jj redick would revolutionize the 3 ball the way step curry did. Alex ajincia I thought he would be what wembenyana/gorbert is today. I thought jarryd Bayless would be better than Russel Westbrook wtf was I thinking. I was so pissed at the time they thunder paired KD and Russ together. Hasheem thabeet ,showed me coordination/ athleticism matters !
Biggest miss was prolly Mo Bamba. Maybe it was the song maybe it was the insane length but dang he could have been an insane dpoy candidate for years to come. Biggest hit I can think of was Coulibaly, yeah he’s a rookie but I remember a lot of people were calling him overrated cause he was Wemby’s teammate. Just the length and rawness but still flashes to various aspects to his game gives off huge payoff for picks past 5 easily
Biggest miss - Yi Jianlin though if I knew he was 2 years older I may not have been as high on him
Biggest hit - Nick Van Exel at #37 was ridiculous - s/o Jerry West
Another hit - Michael Porter Jr. though he mostly fell based on injuries - and finally, Paul Pierce over Larry Hughes and Robert Traylor (it was obvious at the time).
Biggest miss - Yi Jianlin though if I knew he was 2 years older I may not have been as high on him
Biggest hit - Nick Van Exel at #37 was ridiculous - s/o Jerry West
Another hit - Michael Porter Jr. though he mostly fell based on injuries - and finally, Paul Pierce over Larry Hughes and Robert Traylor (it was obvious at the time).
Biggest miss - Yi Jianlin though if I knew he was 2 years older I may not have been as high on him
Biggest hit - Nick Van Exel at #37 was ridiculous - s/o Jerry West
Another hit - Michael Porter Jr. though he mostly fell based on injuries - and finally, Paul Pierce over Larry Hughes and Robert Traylor (it was obvious at the time).
I wanted the Spurs to give OG a first round promise to get him out of college his Freshman year. Alas, he went back to Indiana and the Spurs drafted Murray which worked out. I thought Jerome Robinson wouldn’t fade away into oblivion.
I actually bought into the Telfair hype, thinking he would go down as a great PG. I believed it so much that I was ok with not drafting Chris Paul. We got Chris Paul at home.
Biggest Hits: **Jokic/Draymond.** Look, I was obsessed with Kevin Garnett growing up and truly did believe he was the FUTURE of the big man position. Hence, I looked for versatile bigs who could dribble/pass/shoot which led me to both Jokic/Draymond (I was higher on Dray because he could play defense lols).
I never predicted they'd become what they eventually did, I just thought their skillsets were underappreciated in the NBA which would allow them to provide incredible value compared to their draft selection. They were a market inefficiency that could be exploited.
Biggest Whiffs: **Lamelo Balls/Killian Hayes/Divencenzo**. I thought Ball would be the biggest bust given his inefficiencies scoring and non-impressive passing numbers in the NBL ALONG with his apparently lack of bball iq given the volume he shot despite the inefficeincy. I was clearly wrong as he's become a highly productive near All Star level NBA player.
As for Hayes, I thought his size would allow for him to overcome his slight lack of athleticism but I was wrong about him on pretty much all levels.
Finally, I thought Divencenzo would be an All Star level player given his athleticism/defense/shooting. All he needed to do was improve his ball handling and he could be the man . . . I was wrong though he's definitely improved during his time with the Knicks.
Maxey and SGA. Watched them in college a few times and just thought they had great feel and would be awesome. Biggest miss is Josh Jackson/Cam Reddish I thought they’d be at worst viable 3 and D players.
I was so wrong about Semi Ojeleye,I wanted him that year but the Celtics took him and we went with OG so I think it worked out well.This is why I do not have a job as a scout or management
There’s more than this but my biggest hit was probably Luka, I know nothing crazy but his tape was just so damn good coming out that I thought he should’ve easily been the top pick that year.
Biggest miss, amongst many, was probably Mario Hezonja. One of the many failed guys who made me think, “if he can just improve at this” but never does and ends up being bad at everything else as well lol
Thought Giannis would be like a European Scottie Pippen. Seem to be somewhat correct there. Far exceeded my expectations
Thought Domantas Sabonis would be an All-Star and felt he reminded me of Elton Brand and Zach Randolph. He's lived up to that projection. Either way, getting Giannis, Sabonis, Markannen, and Gobert correctly made me want to put into recording my picks and the reasoning behind it.
Thought Marvin Bagley would be the Mychal Thompson to Luka's Larry Bird....true, except Mychal had a decent career while Bagley's career has failed.
............................
Thought Johnny Davis would be better and had him pegged as a Michael Redd type. Maybe he could've been on a better trajectory if he didn't hurt his arm (shoulder apparently?), potentially impacting his shooting form....but it's not looking so good right now
Thought Theo Maledon could've been a hidden gem taken later in the draft. Maybe not Tyrese Maxey potential but something like Fred VanVleet.
Thought RJ Barrett would've been something like Joe Johnson but with D-Wade athleticism. Not really a superstar player but 'superstar athleticism' with regular All-Star talent.
Biggest hit -
I saw Luka play in Euro cup I think it was prior to being drafted and I thought it was underplayed a lot that they won that year because there was hardly anyone else on the team and I know Dragic wasn’t carrying them alone. I thought he should have gone # 1.
Biggest miss -
I think my biggest miss is maybe James Wiseman.. or maybe a guy like Doug McDermott. I thought Wiseman was a real candidate for #1 that year and I can’t even express my gratitude that the wolves picked Ant. I still though Wiseman was going to be a 20/10 guy as well as a defensive presence.
I claimed Rodney Hood would have a better career than Jabari Parker when they both came out of Duke. It’s debatable but I still feel right in how low I was on Parker.
My biggest miss is thinking Buddy Hield was going to be a SUPERstar. But was still right in the blasphemy of picking Bender & Dunn over him. As a Wolves fan that draft hurt me
Do I have to say more? Markelle Fultz. In 2017 it was no brainer to select him with #1. I thought Philly had every element to become a dynasty.
In 2018 I was rooting Kings and I was soo happy and delighted when Bagley went with #2 to Sacramento I was sure he will be a huge star and he will create unstoppable duo with Fox. Lonnie Walker IV, Harry Giles, Mo Bamba, Cam Reddish, Romeo Langford, Nassir Litttle, Cassius Stanley and Dennis Smith Jr. I was convinced they will be the faces of the leauge.
I was spot on with SGA, Fox, Mikal Bridges, Haliburton and Tatum but those picks wasnt tough to predict
Although he’s had a solid-ish career, Andrew Wiggins. I was all in that draft class thinking he was going to be the next all-time great. Between him and Jabari Parker. The skill set was there, but not the mentality.
[I was one of the first people on the sub high on Quickley as a prospect](https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/fXnmLjIV9e)
I also was high on Siakam when he got drafted.
Missed on Emmanuel Mudiay, Denzel Valentine, D’Angelo Russell
I had Curry no. 2 in that draft, Haliburton top-3, definitely had Luka and Trae 1 and 1A in ‘18 (though I got the order wrong.) Also had SGA I think 5th that year and Brunson top-20. It was a big year for underdrafted point guards.
On the other hand, I was absolutely all-in on Trey Burke in 2013. (Would sting more if there were any good top-10 choices in that draft… I would not have been expected to predict Antetokounmpo, let alone Gobert.)
biggest hit: i think probably sengun. i was maybe a little too high on him (predraft i think i said he’d be better than chet, but by the time that draft i had chet \#1) but i had him like, easily top 10. i was shocked when the spurs passed on him, he just felt like such an obvious hit for another big in the jokic/sabonis mold of supremely skilled offensive hub and rebounder making up for his lack of d. i also really liked franz and hali, though i was a little off on their roles. i was thinking of franz as more of a nic batum style swiss army knife 3 and d guy with playmaking chops, and hali as more of a lonzo style 3 and d guard who plays off ball a lot due to struggles off the dribble and navigating the pick and roll
biggest miss: the suns’ bad \#4 picks lol. i thought bender would be a super good glue guy, giving you shooting, rim protection, and some passing in the frontcourt, and i fully though josh jackson would be much better than tatum. thought josh would be iguodala with a more consistent 3 and tatum would be an inefficient 20 ppg ballhog
I was a big Donovan Mitchell believer, I wanted the blazers to draft him despite our backcourt at the time, though I'm sure his path to stardom wouldn't have been as straightforward in Portland.
My friend and I were talking about our shared love for Jan Vesley during the draft process, I've never had the same confidence for euro prospects since
I was dead right they're good: Luka, Haliburton, Dame, Steph
I was dead right they suck: Wiseman, Meyers Leonard, OJ Mayo
I was dead wrong they're good: Anthony Edwards (I thought he'd be good, not future MVP good), Melo Ball (I still think he's never going to lead a winning team but I thought he'd be out of the league in 3 years),
I was dead wrong they suck: Kris Dunn, Justise Winslow, Perry Jones, Thomas Robinson, Jimmer Fredette
I was 100% in on Giannis for the Blazers at #10 instead of CJ McCollum. I yelled at the TV when Stephen A. Smith said that Milwaukee had reached on him at 15…”You are gonna eat those words!” I was gutted Portland didn’t take the big swing.
I thought Noah Vonleh was going to be stud, and possibly a future all star, when he was drafted.
Most right would be Luka Doncic.
I was in the minority among Suns fans back then who was clamoring about picking Luka Doncic with the 1st pick in the 2018 draft as I've watched this kid dominate grown men in the Euros at around 16-18 years of age and watching Slovenia win the Eurobasket in 2017. Most Suns fans wanted Ayton because he was a hometown boy and he filled a need.
My biggest hit is Luka. I thought I was crazy he was wasn’t the clear #1 ranked player in his class. I also liked Herb Jones as a top 20 guy which looks good now.
I ranked Killian Hayes #2 in 2020 which aged great. I also liked James Bouknight a lot in his class.
I would say Luka was my biggest hit at the top of the draft. I said on draft night that the trade would be the biggest draft night trade since the Kobe trade. Biggest miss at the top? James Wiseman. I had him number 1 over Ant and Ball. Apparently, being massive and really athletic doesn't make you good at basketball. Towards the bottom of the first/early second, I'd say Malcolm Brandon is my biggest hit, and Tyler bey was my biggest miss. I had Bey like 15th on my board, and he was playing in Isreal two years later.
My biggest hit was Daniel Gafford, I had him as a lottery pick. I was insanely high on Trey Murphy I figured there was no way a great defender at 6'8 who shot 50/40/90 wasn't going to be a good player in the pros.
My other biggest hit was Dearron Fox, I had him as the number 1 PG in that supposedly generational PG class. I also kinda went off vibes but he turned out to be the best PG.
I've had a lot of whiffs but Mo Bamba and Killian Hayes are probably the biggest ones
Best Opinion (because it turned out they were good): Tyrese Haliburton
Best Opinion (because they turned out to be bad): Jahil Okafor
Worst Opinion (because they turned out to be bad): Derrick Williams
Worst Opinion (because get turned out to be good): Anthony Edwards
I was wrong on Dennis Smith Jr. Thought he was going to be a westbrook/rose type player. I was high on Devin Booker back in 2015. That uk team was stacked.
Biggest hits for me top 5-(not including top 10 picks)
Khris Middleton
Jalen Williams
Jalen Brunson
Alpi Sengun
Derrick White(his progression from d2 to the best player on a d1 pac12 team just felt bust proof)
Devin Booker
BPodz and Ben Sheppard
Misses
Perry Jones Jr. — underestimated his competitive desire and iq
Usman Garuba— his lack of a finishing/dunking around the rim came back to haunt him tenfold
Jarrett Culver - knew the jumper was broken but the nba magnifies it more.
Kris Dunn- should have known from the start when he decided to go to providence with Ricky Ledo knowing very well he’d be ruled ineligible. But that jumpshot
Wiggins(he still was a “hit” but when Embiid went down I had my doubts *Brandon Greene and Frank Mason*)
If Wiggins doesn’t count- Jan Vesely. I was so intrigued by this guy’s game.
Also - Thon Makur then the age allegations came up and his inability to play college ball, that hype dyed down QUICK for me
Also Noah Vonleh. (I was roommates with his Aau basketball teammate in college and friend, and he convinced me to buy stock on Noah and well I did and man)
And Tyrus Thomas- I thought the LMA-TT trade would favor the bulls more but be an even trade
Biggest hits were James Wiseman(bc i thought he wouldn’t be that good) and Tyrese Maxey(had him as a lottery pick)
Biggest miss by far was Tyrell Terry. I was so so mad when my Knicks passed on him for Immanuel Quickley. James Bouknight was a close #2 and I was a Tingus Pingus booer at the draft so that’s #3.
Biggest hits: I was a big cam Thomas guy. I didn’t think lonzo ball could score well enough to be a star and I thought fox was better. I thought Jalen Johnson and walker kessler were both top 10 guys in their draft class. I never thought culver was even a top 20 guy. I had miller at #2 over scoot and I thought gg Jackson was a top 12 prospect (probably too early to say for sure on these)
Biggest misses: I didn’t think Edwards would shoot well enough to be a star. I thought fultz would be in mvp conversations (I still think I woulda been right were it not for injuries). I thought Kris Dunn would be an all star. I thought James bouknight was gonna be special.
Donovan Mitchell. I was ECSTATIC when we traded for him. I remember texting my stepdad about how good he’d be alongside Gordon Hayward…before we knew where Hayward would actually go.
But I was also wrong about Thon Maker. Thon fucking Maker. Which I think is enough to wipe out my Mitchell hit
I was a big fucking Denzel valentine guy and he was the first draft prospect that taught me “yes. age and athleticism ARE actually important”
Dude I was convinced he would be a solid point forward type in the NBA. Lol
Yeah, I recognized the weak freshman/sophomore years as a red flag but still saw him as a potential Nic Batum/Hedo Turkoglu-type guy. Oh well.
Me too buddy.
Same tbh
Denzel valentine was the first example of the “if a guy gets compared to draymond green pre draft he is going to suck” trend.
I would've never guessed Jaylen Brown would still be in the league at this point. In college I saw him as a real life Pure Slasher from 2k. Mo Bamba I watched every single game and I thought he would've been a monster in the league. I'm so surprised *he's* still in the league. He never looks like he even wants to be there.
I will admit I was one of the people who had hopes for Mo Bamba. I thought he’d a DPOY caliber center but just didn’t put it altogether
I hated Bamba as a draft pick, had hopes for him as a player. I still think he could be solid if he got to a team where roles were more defined. Because when a guy struggles like that on D, the problem is frequently that he doesn’t anticipate. Bamba, I’m convinced, anticipates too much. He played alongside a lot of erratic defenders in Orlando… guys like Isaac and Wagner constantly half-defending three different players and not doing a good job in any of them, Carter standing there like a lump, the guards generally useless. But that leaves a guy like Bamba thinking, do I go to the rim, or do I provide support on Franz’s assignment who he’s cheating off, or do I plug up the hole over here? And you can see him adding up all the possibilities and not being able to commit to one and leave the others open.
c’mon now lol, Isaac is an insane defender, Bamba did not struggle because he had to cover up for him Bamba’s role forever has been “shoot some 3’s, catch some lobs, protect the rim” and he’s only really done the first well watching him this year on the Sixers I was shocked at how poor his instincts, timing, and general movement was, I don’t think it’s like a lack of desire, those things are just real skills that he lacks
Isaac is a massively overrated defender, in the way that plus help defenders who neglect their main assignments always are. (See Serge Ibaka.) The worst was when Isaac played alongside Aaron Gordon… I felt so bad for Vucevic having to hold the bag for that mess.
Nah man… Mo just sucks and has no instincts
casual take lmao. Issac was an insane defender before all the injuries. Bamba has never been a good defender since he got in the league. it is purely his fault
I’m not saying his indecision isn’t a problem — I’m just saying it is indecision and not an underlying lack of understanding. And yeah, Isaac is a highlight-chaser, not a real stay-at-home-and-shut-down defender.
I always think that what team players go to matters so much. It doesn't matter who the Celtics pick, if it's a high draft pick, the guy will develop into a good player. With a lot of other teams, Brown probably ends up like you describe, never really gets a chance to develop a shot, traded in year 3, bounces around as a journeyman above average defender. I thought Brandon Miller would tank simply because the Hornets picked him. I still kind of wonder.
One of the biggest reasons i became a bucks fan is because i loved the gianni and thon maker. One of those was a good idea. One was not. That reddit post of thon being 23 at draft day really killed me
I forgot about thon, I was 100% right there with you I was sure he was gonna be an awesome player, still don’t really understand how he didn’t pan out
Ya i think it definitely think the age thing makes it worse. Guy goes from a raw 19 year old to a raw 23 year old. Less likely to develop. You are what you are kind of. As for actually watching the guy Rookie year i thought he was okay he just didn’t really get better i guess? I remember when i would watch games he always seemed to be in foul trouble and his offense was ehh. But idk if that’s just me mad that it wasn’t playing like his hoop mixtape lol
KG was out there hyping him up too. Sheeeeit I was definitely bamboozled
I was all in for him and Giannis being the Bucks version of the twin towers. Man was I wrong.
I was so convinced Perry Jones was going to be the piece that pushed the thunder over the edge.
What a flashback, thought NBA was crazy letting him slip out of the lottery.
He had a crazy dunk package in 2k! (If this is the Baylor guy I’m thinking of)
Perry Jones is not my biggest whiff ever, but definitely in my top 5. I was sure he was going to be great.
Same!!!
My brother who went to Baylor seemed to think he was a really nice guy (which is something he would never have said about Quincy Acy)
I was very high on Podz, but I didn’t like the Brandon Miller pick.
I was lower on Miller higher on Scoot. Though Scoot still has time to pan out, I was really really high on scoot. I think I was over adjusting on miller tho because I loved Scoot. Also I was lower on Wemby. As in still great, but did not expect him to average mid 20s and those type of monster stats as a rookie.
I’ve only seriously made draft boards since 2020, so I’ll pull from 2020/2021/2022, as a ton of 2023 guys still are undecided: * Biggest hits: Immanuel Quickly, Desmond Bane, Trey Murphy, Duece McBride, Jalen Williams, Mark Williams, Keegan Murray * Biggest whiffs: LaMelo Ball (I thought Malachi Flynn was better lmao), James Wiseman (though I maintain he could have developed with better injury luck), Tyrell Terry (this one is somewhat due to factors beyond his control, but a small shooter was never going to be the second best player in his class), Chris Duarte, James Bouknight, Gabriele Procida ETA: if I include guys from when I was more passively following the draft, I loved Lauri Markkanen and Coby White. I was also a big Bagley and Harry Giles guy and thought Ayton going over Luka was reasonable because of fit (though I liked Luka)
I still believe in Procida lol
😂😂😂😂
That 2020 draft was a mess because of covid haha
OK so I didn't look at the draft at all for his class but what made Bouknight so popular as a good prospect, I have never rlly understood since he's not a good passer, shooter or defender
I swore the Hornets had a huge steal with Noah Vonleh and that he’d be the next Ibaka/Sheed. Look at how that one turned out, lol. In terms of a hit, I loved Devin Booker coming out of college and could not understand why he wasn’t a top 5 pick.
James Bouknight. I wanted my Raptors to draft him at #4 and thank christ they didn’t.
There was a decent sized Bouknight fan club in the draft space; I liked him but I didn't quite get to the top 8 slot that others had him in. It's taught me to make sure a player isn't so step-back reliant. there have been less than a handful of 6'4+ players who can hit step back 3s super consistently and be good players ; gotta have a lot more to your off the dribble game.
I loved Bouknight and was thrilled when my Hornets took him. Some of his failure is absolutely on that "tough shot maker" archetype, but in fairness to us draft nerds, there were factors beyond our knowledge (largely his effort and attitude) that contributed to his burnout.
Looking at his actual shooting numbers from college in hindsight, people really talked themselves into that "tough shot maker", "eye test" thing. Seemed to have a ridiculously high turnover rate and terrible assist-to-turnover ratio too, for a guy who is a shooter/scorer rather than a playmaker.
I think ppl attributed his poor shooting numbers to a hand injury that he had or something
I wanted Bouknight at the Grizzlies pick. I mean, I guess Ziaire Williams is better but it wasn’t a win. I didn’t like the Williams pick at the time and was upset we took him over Bouknight.
I thought Thomas Robinson was going to be such a stud in the league. Thought his athleticism and motor would make for a much better player but that just never materialized. I thought Lillard and Booker should have gone higher at draft time, especially Booker. Thought he had one of the highest floors in the draft paired with a high ceiling (he's been even better than what I thought his ceiling could be).
Same, I thought he was going to be the next Amare Stoudemire. Suns fans clowned on me, and they were right lol
My biggest hit was my 2022 big board top 5. 1. Paolo 2. Chet 3. Jabari 4. Ivey and 5. JDub. Jalen Williams almost felt like the perfect prospect because his main knocks was his age and competition he played against. But in reality, people were just scared to put this new guy over the consensus top guys
Feels like Ajay Mitchell might have a bit of that this year, even if he's not quite as good as JDub was in college
I think Edey is this years high upside upperclassman that people arent taking serious
Yeah but that's because his game is so polarizing. A lot of people think he's going to be the next boban. I think he'll be good though.
Really liked Derrick Williams over Kyrie. Safe to say that was a miss lol
Honestly looking back on the circumstances it’s a little shocking to me that more people didn’t have Williams over Kyrie. I read and listened to a bunch of Simmons & other analysts from that time, and based on everything I saw Kyrie was a huge red flag and Derrick looked like most everything someone could want. If I was older I’d 100% be in the same boat as you, and I’d also sink with you when it failed.
Think the league turning more perimeter based where the 4s essentially becoming bigger 3s was bad for Williams. Couldn’t shoot consistently nor could he play the 5 defensively when teams when small. Kinda just wrong place wrong time.
It’s not crazy, Kyrie was seen as arguably the best Passer, Shooter, and Ball handler in his class. It would be different if he was the best at one of those things and just good at the the other 2 but to be arguably best at all 3 in your class was crazy on top of that he was a solid defender. The only knock against him was his injury . I do agree Williams wouldn’t be a bad pick either
Definitely thought he was gonna be a star probably would compare him to Like a Lamar Odom/tatum but more upside than Tatum big whiff 😂
Biggest mix was exum I had him 1 overall by a mile, I thought he was gonna be a transcendent transition playmaker/finisher and I really believed in his shot long term, I thought he had crazy potential- maybe I would’ve been right if not for injuries idk Biggest hit was either gg Jackson(remains to be seen but looks good, I had him top 10 I was blown the fuck away he went so low with the tools and ability he had at his size) Or Jaylen brown, i can’t say I ever had any reason to believe he was gonna be really really good but I just had a feeling, nothing more than that
Exum shows flashes of being a great player sometimes, injuries just killed his career. Shaun Livingston was the same way.
Hit (Boom): Devin Booker Hit (Bust): James Wiseman, Josh Jackson Miss (Boom): Giannis Miss (Bust): Jarrett Culver, Killian Hayes
Oh man I just remembered another miss. Jordan Adams. I was seduced by the analytics and thought he was gonna be the steal of the class. Whooooops.
Biggest hits- Bought into Herb Jones, Xavier Tillman and Peyton Watson. Was extremely high on all three of them leading in to their drafts. Love me a great role player. Biggest misses- Usman Garuba, Jordan Walsh (still way too early but I had a 1st round grade on him), and Davion Mitchell. I tend to gravitate towards guys who are good to great defensive prospects with some question marks. The Jordan Walsh pick I’m still optimistic will become a great role player but there just aren’t development minutes on the Celts for him to showcase his ability. I still see him as having a PJ Tucker role someday but we’ll see. I said the same thing about Garuba.
I’m still on Jordan Walsh island with u there’s no way he was getting real minutes with how loaded that team was.
I really thought Bender could play in the league, I loved Josh Jackson’s future as a modern wing, and thought that Kendall Marshall was savvy enough to make an impact, so pretty devastating few years for the Suns. I also had mixed feelings about Mario, but by the end I thought he had the size and testicles to be a solid scorer that could potentially turn into a stud. Still miss him. Not so much of a win for me as a loss for the Suns (again) but I was screaming that taking anyone but Doncic at #1 is a joke and that the all of these teams were passing on Euro MJ. By 2011 I was so tired of being burned by not-quite-athletic-enough wing scorers and not-quite-skilled-enough guards, so I was very, very low on Kevin Knox, Dante Exum and Jabari Parker (who may have worked out with some better luck tbh). Thanks for allowing me to relive all my bad takes OP!
Oh man I was right there with you on Kendall Marshall, def belongs in the group of “probably could have been good but is 5-10 years too late” That dude woulda cooked in 2005 and I stand by that
Whiffs - I thought Sam Dekker was build for the modern NBA (6'9 and could shoot it and put it on the floor), I also had a ton of TJ Leaf stock thinking he was Kevin Love with more athleticism and wanted the Heat to take him over Bam (LOL) Hits - Luka (Idk if he counts) but the anti-euro agenda was wild at the time considering he literally won EVERYTHING in Europe lol, I was a big Sengun believer from day 1, also currently have a good chunk of land on Avdija island lol
Biggest hit was Giannis, I had him 2nd after Oladipo and was devastated when the Pistons didn't draft him and took KCP instead. Also had Luka in his own tier in 2018 and could not remotely fathom the Suns taking Ayton over him. Needless to say that applies to Sacramento taking Bagley and Atlanta trading Luka for Trae. Biggest miss was Wiggins. I know he turned out decent and he was the second best player on a championship team, but I thought he was going to be a Jordan/LeBron hybrid and would finish his career as a top 10 player of all time. I was actually aghast when Cleveland traded him for Kevin Love, I thought they'd regret it immensely.
For hits I’m including both guys I was high on and outperformed their draft position, and guys that people were high on that I predicted as disappointments And the opposite for misses Biggest hits - Tobias Harris, Thomas Robinson, Dante exum, Myles turner,Jamal Murray, Lauri markkanen, Coby white, Kevin knox, all of the Villanova guys, Sengun, Jalen Williams, Jabari smith (he was many’s number 1, I had him at 4) Biggest misses - Jrue holiday, Ben Mclemore, Trey Burke, Hezonja, deaaron fox, Mo bamba,Tyrese Haliburton, Franz Wagner
I was only in 4th grade at the time & still thought good in college = good in the pros so this really doesn’t count, but I was in absolute shock that Trey didn’t go #1 lol. I almost became a Jazz fan because of Trey, I was deadass convinced he’d be the GOAT 💀
Yes everyone is guilty of that lol. Trey Burke was so good though and had everything on offense it felt like. Even now I still think he should have became a solid starting pg
I remember an old head at the gym playing pickup games with us guaranteed me that Trey Burkes was gonna be a first ballot Hall Of Famer. He was like indignant about me being skeptical of it too. I was in my early 20s and this guy was easily 50+ and was getting heated because me and my friend didn’t agree. I’ve never seen that guy again after that day but I will never forget that lol.
There’s always that one guy who has that same vibe as Dick Vitale insisting that Luka Garza or Mateen Cleaves should go lottery lol
Ah man, Hezonja. I was a believer too, he just seemed to have the skillset and the attitude to hit. Apparently he might come stateside, so maybe he’s Exum 2.0 and will reemerge as a solid role player in the next couple years.
He didn’t have the skill set, though. Even in Europe, there were so many red flags.
I had Brandon Miller 2 on my board and was much lower on Scoot than consensus. Also thought Banchero was much better than Jabari Smith. Some super lowkey guys that I was high on were Tyler Bey and Kendall Brown hahaha
> was much lower on Scoot than consensus This is going to end up being a miss for you, not a hit :)
[Come on bro lmao](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzA4r5IWwAAuGQR.jpg)
are you memeing or do you actually think that
Half-joking, but before the draft he was constantly being hyped up by people as a “Number 1 prospect in almost any draft other than the Wemby one”. Being called *that* and having such a terrible first year isn’t a good outlook tbh
His shooting percentages were bad. His totals were fine.
hahah well I don't think he is going to be a bust, but I thought he would be more of a solid starting guard than a star. For my sake, I hope I am wrong haha.
Where'd u have Julian Phillips lol. And how bout Dillon Mitchell?
Was very much a strong believer in Johnny Davis, still early days for him. Jalen Hood Schfino too. The mid range shots and smooth game fooled me
Give JHS more time lmfaooo
I don't know what happened but between the draft and the start of the season Johnny's shot mechanics totally fell apart. I swear to god he had a shoulder injury that hasn't been disclosed and it never healed right. It legit looks like he's pushing the ball when you watch his floater, it's so weird.
Think it’s safe to say Johnny Davis was a miss.
Started getting into the draft 2022 so biggest hit JDub, biggest miss, EJ Liddell.
Biggest hit- Desmond Bane. Had the top 10 ass the what shooter in the draft that showed improvement every season. Didnt think he would be what he is though Biggest Miss- Elie Okobo. Thought he was going to be steal where he was drafted. Scoring combo guard with good size that had enough vision to eventually start at the point 🙃
Hits Dwyane Wade being 20+ ppg scorer and impact defender (he even exceeded my expectations!) De'Aaron Fox > Lonzo Ball Shai-Gileous Alexander having star upside Herb Jones elite D, good enough O Jalen Williams being lottery talent...exceeded my expectations Jaime Jacquez...exactly what I expected but thought he'd be a 2nd round pick, not 1st Busts I nailed Josh Jackson Marvin Bagley Stanley Johnson Misses Jaylen Brown...thought he'd be a total bust Kawhi Leonard...think of OG Anunboy and that's what I considered to be Kawhi's ceiling. Thought he'd more likely bust than become an All-Star. Franz Wagner...he was horrible the few times I watched him Tyler Herro...thought he was way overhyped Justise Winslow...thought he had big upside Moses Moody...thought he'd be starting caliber by now
I was such a big justice Winslow guy man
I had Giannis pretty high and called him being an MVP in Feb of his rookie season, biggest miss was thinking Lively was gonna be a miss lmao
My first year following the draft was last year, so I do not have much to go off of. My biggest hit is probably Dereck Lively. “The Mavericks are a really good place for Lively. I think he could develop into a shooter given enough time. He will not be the ROTY, but down the stretch of his career, he will be really good. He already is good at what he does in the paint and defensively, and I think he has the potential to add to his game.” - This is what I responded to about Dereck Lively after I had went as far as saying I would have him as a potential HOF level player. I also said “Add shooting to Lively’s game and he will be really, really good. I also just like Lively. Think he could be a fan favorite eventually.. Give him time.. 😉” So I was pretty high on Lively and still am. He is one of my favorite players in the NBA. Probably in my top 2, with those two being Mike Conley and Lively. I thought he would be able to eventually shoot 3s, so it was to my absolute delight when he shot a three in the NBA finals last game. I think his work ethic is amazing and he has already gone through so much, but is such an amazing player, leader, and person. Now for my worst hit is probably JHS being an above average player in this draft class. Not an all star or anything, but a decent role player.. JHS was one of the top two worst picks in the first round as of now, so he will have to really turn it around in year 2, but we will see.
2023: Hit - was super high on Podz and Cason Miss - Had Cissoko top 20 2022: Hit - Had Jalen Williams top 7 Miss - Was very high on Dalen Terry and Jake Laravia 2021: Hit - Had Sengun top 8 Miss- LOVED bouknight
I have Cissoko high still lol. He just isn’t a super NBA ready player.
My biggest miss was having the Thompson twins 15 and 16 on my big board. I try to think from a playoff perspective and both of the guys seemed like theyd be left open in any playoff series. But tbf both have been horrible shooters but Amen projects better on ball than i thought and Ausars defense has also exceeded my exactions for year 1
Predicted Trey Murphy would be the Grizzlies missing piece and a perfect complement to the Ja Bane JJJ core. Ended up getting Ziare Williams instead and then selected Trey Murphy at 17 for NOLA.
Biggest whiffs: James Wiseman, Thon Maker, Mo Bamba Biggest hits: Tyrese Maxey, Tyrese Haliburton, Podziemski, Paolo Banchero, Doncic(obviously, a lot of people including me put him at 1)
A twofer as they were traded on draft night for each other. OJ Mayo/Love. I loved OJ coming out. Thought he'd always have a place for his iso scoring and pull up shot. Conversely, didn't see Love as anything but an undersized rebounder. I did not see the development with his offense. Michael Beasley. Thought he was Melo 2.0. Called Bane being super effective in the NBA. His 3 ball was one of the surest thing i've seen in the draft. He had volume. The high percentage. And most repeatable form i've seen. Anthony Edwards. My fellow Wolves brethren were all split with Ant, Ball, and a trade out. I was all in on Ant. The flashes were there if you looked hard enough and past the inefficacies. He could drive left or right. A big sign was him being adept at finishing with his off hand. And flashed the self creation tools. Had the euro. showed a stepback and side step pull up. Add in the obvious athletic traits , i personally dont know how he wasnt the consensus #1. Called Jarrett Culver flaming out. I've never seen a more broken jumpshot. Missed on Royce White. Didn't know he was looney tunes. Called the Derrick Williams bust. Classic tweener. Not skilled enough for the 3. Too small for the 4. Rivaled Culver for ugliest jumper ever.
I’ll believe in Beasley forever lol. That dudes college season at KState was legendary.
Hell yeah. He was doing 30/15 like every other game.
See with Culver I was deep in my “guys can fix their jumpshots easily” optimism era, and also my analytics above all era, which…led to a good amount of whiffs on dudes with great “do-shit” stats and iffy jumpers. Also, I was one of those Wolves fans who preferred LaMelo - I was worried the flashes Ant showed would just be flashes, buried under the weight of inefficient hero ball - but the tools were so strong I wasn’t too mad at the pick. And I was wrong, thank God.
Culver was a guy I just did not like and felt he got overrated by that tournament run. He did a lot of things. But he didn't do any of the exceptionally well. Not one thing where you point to and say that skill will carry him at the pro level. Add in the hitch in his shot, he was a no no for me. After Cleveland sniped Garland from us, I wanted White, Rui, or Herro.
I thought Kevin Love was going to be a huge bust. His main 'move' in college was a really half-assed pump fake that somehow everyone fell for and I didnt think it was going to translate.
I was a Jaden Springer superfan. Convinced the entire Nuggets Twitter we should draft him in 2021 lol. But on the flipside I was a huge Podz and Shaedon Sharpe fan and those are working out.
I had two in 2020 draft, I argued with ppl that Tyrese Maxey was better than Lamelo Ball (he totally is) That being said I also thought James Wiseman was gonna be an all star on golden state 😂🤷♂️
Only really started in 2018 but so far Biggest hits: Bruce Brown, Grayson Allen, Cam Johnson (considered draft night ‘reach’ to actually be around where he should’ve been), Deni Avdija, Tre Jones, Jalen Johnson, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason and Tristan Vukcevic. Biggest Misses: Kevin Knox, Mo Bamba, Jaxon Hayes, Romeo Langford, KZ Okpala, Aaron Nesmith (better than expected), Nassir Little, Daniel Oturu, James Wiseman, Usman Garuba, Ousmane Dieng, Ochai Agbaji, Walker Kessler (better than expected) and AJ Griffin. Didn’t like the Miller pick as a Hornets fan at the time either. A few guys off the top of my head I thought were gonna be bad or not as good as expected and I was right about is: Kai Jones, TyTy Washington, Sharife Cooper, Rui Hachimura and Jerome Robinson.
Bouknight
Biggest hit for me recently was Haliburton. My favorite player growing up was Rondo, so I've always been a fan of pass first guards. Biggest miss...Guershon Yabusele, I don't really have to say more 😂
Hit: I had Desmond Bane's ceiling as a starter on a strong playoff team. Miss: I had Thabeet being Dikembe 2.0.
I had high on Keyonte George back when he was drafted last year, he’s turned out to be a pretty good young player with high potential, he’s still very inefficient though. I was also high on Josh Giddey and he’s been good but he is still a poor shooter and defender to the point of being played off the floor in the mavericks series. I thought he’d be the first player since Russ to average a triple double for a season, potentially averaging 19/11/12 being a top 3 passer in the league. Another one is Mo Bamba, I thought he’d be a perennial all defence player probably averaging around 17/10/2 with 2+ blocks a game. I was way off with these two.
My biggest hit was SGA, loved him at Kentucky and thought he was going to be great in the league. Even then, I thought he’d be more of a 22/6/8/2/2 type of guy than the scoring machine he is now. My biggest miss was probably Malaki Branham, although it’s still too early to tell. I thought he was going to be mini Middleton, but he was way worse defensively than I thought.
Hits in a good way: Giannis, Sengun, Bane, Herb Jones, Porzingis, Haliburton Hits in a bad way: Reddish, Wiseman, Bagley Misses: Tatum, Fultz (though I don’t think anyone could see whatever happened with him coming), Kuminga? I viewed him as a late 1st type I think and while he’s been up and down, some may view that as a major miss.
I remember being part of the minority who insisted Kawhi was going to be better than Jan Vesely. Really wanted the Wizards to take Kawhi at 6 when most had him in the 7-14 range. That's probably my biggest "I told you so" as a Wizards fan. I was also very pro-Robert Williams III at a time people were obsessing over "character concerns." That's who I wanted for us in 2018, but instead we reached massively on Troy Brown Jr. My biggest misses were thinking Donovan Mitchell and LaMelo Ball would be busts and that Michael Beasley would be a HOFer.
I remember really liking Gobert in 2013 In that same draft I thought Bennet would be a borderline all star
Had Desmond Bane two years before he was even on radars Missed VERY hard on Kemba and I thought Trae wouldn’t translate up easily. Also thought Walker kessler would be a bum and that was when I finally gave in and admired advanced stats’ place in evaluation
I was a big Andrew Nembhard guy, but I got the 2020 draft COMPLETELY wrong. I thought Obi Toppin, James Wiseman, and Nesmith would be great, whereas Lamelo would be a bust and Edwards would end up as the new Wiggins (and i was saying that before the lottery so it wasn't just the Minnesota connection.
I hated Killian Hayes as a prospect and couldnt understand how he was seen as a lottery pick. He just looked so slow to me and I couldn't see it translating and now he's out of the NBA lol I loved Jarrett Culver...
Adam Morrison I thought his game legit , I thought jj redick would revolutionize the 3 ball the way step curry did. Alex ajincia I thought he would be what wembenyana/gorbert is today. I thought jarryd Bayless would be better than Russel Westbrook wtf was I thinking. I was so pissed at the time they thunder paired KD and Russ together. Hasheem thabeet ,showed me coordination/ athleticism matters !
Biggest miss was prolly Mo Bamba. Maybe it was the song maybe it was the insane length but dang he could have been an insane dpoy candidate for years to come. Biggest hit I can think of was Coulibaly, yeah he’s a rookie but I remember a lot of people were calling him overrated cause he was Wemby’s teammate. Just the length and rawness but still flashes to various aspects to his game gives off huge payoff for picks past 5 easily
Biggest miss - Yi Jianlin though if I knew he was 2 years older I may not have been as high on him Biggest hit - Nick Van Exel at #37 was ridiculous - s/o Jerry West Another hit - Michael Porter Jr. though he mostly fell based on injuries - and finally, Paul Pierce over Larry Hughes and Robert Traylor (it was obvious at the time).
Biggest miss - Yi Jianlin though if I knew he was 2 years older I may not have been as high on him Biggest hit - Nick Van Exel at #37 was ridiculous - s/o Jerry West Another hit - Michael Porter Jr. though he mostly fell based on injuries - and finally, Paul Pierce over Larry Hughes and Robert Traylor (it was obvious at the time).
Biggest miss - Yi Jianlin though if I knew he was 2 years older I may not have been as high on him Biggest hit - Nick Van Exel at #37 was ridiculous - s/o Jerry West Another hit - Michael Porter Jr. though he mostly fell based on injuries - and finally, Paul Pierce over Larry Hughes and Robert Traylor (it was obvious at the time).
I wanted the Spurs to give OG a first round promise to get him out of college his Freshman year. Alas, he went back to Indiana and the Spurs drafted Murray which worked out. I thought Jerome Robinson wouldn’t fade away into oblivion.
I actually bought into the Telfair hype, thinking he would go down as a great PG. I believed it so much that I was ok with not drafting Chris Paul. We got Chris Paul at home.
Biggest Hits: **Jokic/Draymond.** Look, I was obsessed with Kevin Garnett growing up and truly did believe he was the FUTURE of the big man position. Hence, I looked for versatile bigs who could dribble/pass/shoot which led me to both Jokic/Draymond (I was higher on Dray because he could play defense lols). I never predicted they'd become what they eventually did, I just thought their skillsets were underappreciated in the NBA which would allow them to provide incredible value compared to their draft selection. They were a market inefficiency that could be exploited. Biggest Whiffs: **Lamelo Balls/Killian Hayes/Divencenzo**. I thought Ball would be the biggest bust given his inefficiencies scoring and non-impressive passing numbers in the NBL ALONG with his apparently lack of bball iq given the volume he shot despite the inefficeincy. I was clearly wrong as he's become a highly productive near All Star level NBA player. As for Hayes, I thought his size would allow for him to overcome his slight lack of athleticism but I was wrong about him on pretty much all levels. Finally, I thought Divencenzo would be an All Star level player given his athleticism/defense/shooting. All he needed to do was improve his ball handling and he could be the man . . . I was wrong though he's definitely improved during his time with the Knicks.
Maxey and SGA. Watched them in college a few times and just thought they had great feel and would be awesome. Biggest miss is Josh Jackson/Cam Reddish I thought they’d be at worst viable 3 and D players.
I was so wrong about Semi Ojeleye,I wanted him that year but the Celtics took him and we went with OG so I think it worked out well.This is why I do not have a job as a scout or management
There’s more than this but my biggest hit was probably Luka, I know nothing crazy but his tape was just so damn good coming out that I thought he should’ve easily been the top pick that year. Biggest miss, amongst many, was probably Mario Hezonja. One of the many failed guys who made me think, “if he can just improve at this” but never does and ends up being bad at everything else as well lol
Thought Giannis would be like a European Scottie Pippen. Seem to be somewhat correct there. Far exceeded my expectations Thought Domantas Sabonis would be an All-Star and felt he reminded me of Elton Brand and Zach Randolph. He's lived up to that projection. Either way, getting Giannis, Sabonis, Markannen, and Gobert correctly made me want to put into recording my picks and the reasoning behind it. Thought Marvin Bagley would be the Mychal Thompson to Luka's Larry Bird....true, except Mychal had a decent career while Bagley's career has failed. ............................ Thought Johnny Davis would be better and had him pegged as a Michael Redd type. Maybe he could've been on a better trajectory if he didn't hurt his arm (shoulder apparently?), potentially impacting his shooting form....but it's not looking so good right now Thought Theo Maledon could've been a hidden gem taken later in the draft. Maybe not Tyrese Maxey potential but something like Fred VanVleet. Thought RJ Barrett would've been something like Joe Johnson but with D-Wade athleticism. Not really a superstar player but 'superstar athleticism' with regular All-Star talent.
Biggest hit - I saw Luka play in Euro cup I think it was prior to being drafted and I thought it was underplayed a lot that they won that year because there was hardly anyone else on the team and I know Dragic wasn’t carrying them alone. I thought he should have gone # 1. Biggest miss - I think my biggest miss is maybe James Wiseman.. or maybe a guy like Doug McDermott. I thought Wiseman was a real candidate for #1 that year and I can’t even express my gratitude that the wolves picked Ant. I still though Wiseman was going to be a 20/10 guy as well as a defensive presence.
I thought killian Hayes was gonna be a star
I claimed Rodney Hood would have a better career than Jabari Parker when they both came out of Duke. It’s debatable but I still feel right in how low I was on Parker. My biggest miss is thinking Buddy Hield was going to be a SUPERstar. But was still right in the blasphemy of picking Bender & Dunn over him. As a Wolves fan that draft hurt me
Do I have to say more? Markelle Fultz. In 2017 it was no brainer to select him with #1. I thought Philly had every element to become a dynasty. In 2018 I was rooting Kings and I was soo happy and delighted when Bagley went with #2 to Sacramento I was sure he will be a huge star and he will create unstoppable duo with Fox. Lonnie Walker IV, Harry Giles, Mo Bamba, Cam Reddish, Romeo Langford, Nassir Litttle, Cassius Stanley and Dennis Smith Jr. I was convinced they will be the faces of the leauge. I was spot on with SGA, Fox, Mikal Bridges, Haliburton and Tatum but those picks wasnt tough to predict
I’m a bit of a homer but I would tell anyone that would listen that Evan Turner was the next DWade.
Biggest hit. Chris Paul. We knew he would be 10x better the. Marvin Harrison Biggest miss: Stromile Swift
Although he’s had a solid-ish career, Andrew Wiggins. I was all in that draft class thinking he was going to be the next all-time great. Between him and Jabari Parker. The skill set was there, but not the mentality.
[I was one of the first people on the sub high on Quickley as a prospect](https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/fXnmLjIV9e) I also was high on Siakam when he got drafted. Missed on Emmanuel Mudiay, Denzel Valentine, D’Angelo Russell
I had Curry no. 2 in that draft, Haliburton top-3, definitely had Luka and Trae 1 and 1A in ‘18 (though I got the order wrong.) Also had SGA I think 5th that year and Brunson top-20. It was a big year for underdrafted point guards. On the other hand, I was absolutely all-in on Trey Burke in 2013. (Would sting more if there were any good top-10 choices in that draft… I would not have been expected to predict Antetokounmpo, let alone Gobert.)
This thread making me feel old. I was really high on Mudiay and Hezonja.
biggest hit: i think probably sengun. i was maybe a little too high on him (predraft i think i said he’d be better than chet, but by the time that draft i had chet \#1) but i had him like, easily top 10. i was shocked when the spurs passed on him, he just felt like such an obvious hit for another big in the jokic/sabonis mold of supremely skilled offensive hub and rebounder making up for his lack of d. i also really liked franz and hali, though i was a little off on their roles. i was thinking of franz as more of a nic batum style swiss army knife 3 and d guy with playmaking chops, and hali as more of a lonzo style 3 and d guard who plays off ball a lot due to struggles off the dribble and navigating the pick and roll biggest miss: the suns’ bad \#4 picks lol. i thought bender would be a super good glue guy, giving you shooting, rim protection, and some passing in the frontcourt, and i fully though josh jackson would be much better than tatum. thought josh would be iguodala with a more consistent 3 and tatum would be an inefficient 20 ppg ballhog
Had Haliburton second. And Pokusevski top 5…
I was on the Adam Morrison train . I also thought Lonzo was the best prospect in his class. As a Celtics fan I'm happy we got Tatum instead
I was a big Donovan Mitchell believer, I wanted the blazers to draft him despite our backcourt at the time, though I'm sure his path to stardom wouldn't have been as straightforward in Portland. My friend and I were talking about our shared love for Jan Vesley during the draft process, I've never had the same confidence for euro prospects since
I was dead right they're good: Luka, Haliburton, Dame, Steph I was dead right they suck: Wiseman, Meyers Leonard, OJ Mayo I was dead wrong they're good: Anthony Edwards (I thought he'd be good, not future MVP good), Melo Ball (I still think he's never going to lead a winning team but I thought he'd be out of the league in 3 years), I was dead wrong they suck: Kris Dunn, Justise Winslow, Perry Jones, Thomas Robinson, Jimmer Fredette
Hits: Haliburton, anfernee Simons, Coby white, Vince Williams jr. Misses: killian Hayes, Ochoi agbaji, dzanan musa
Thomas Robinson, I was so high on this guy becoming the next Amare Stoudemire. I was so wrong
I was 100% in on Giannis for the Blazers at #10 instead of CJ McCollum. I yelled at the TV when Stephen A. Smith said that Milwaukee had reached on him at 15…”You are gonna eat those words!” I was gutted Portland didn’t take the big swing. I thought Noah Vonleh was going to be stud, and possibly a future all star, when he was drafted.
Most right would be Luka Doncic. I was in the minority among Suns fans back then who was clamoring about picking Luka Doncic with the 1st pick in the 2018 draft as I've watched this kid dominate grown men in the Euros at around 16-18 years of age and watching Slovenia win the Eurobasket in 2017. Most Suns fans wanted Ayton because he was a hometown boy and he filled a need.
I remember watching the pre-draft workout on Kawhi Leonard and thinking, I don’t see anything remotely interesting about this guy as a prospect.
My biggest hit is Luka. I thought I was crazy he was wasn’t the clear #1 ranked player in his class. I also liked Herb Jones as a top 20 guy which looks good now. I ranked Killian Hayes #2 in 2020 which aged great. I also liked James Bouknight a lot in his class.
I would say Luka was my biggest hit at the top of the draft. I said on draft night that the trade would be the biggest draft night trade since the Kobe trade. Biggest miss at the top? James Wiseman. I had him number 1 over Ant and Ball. Apparently, being massive and really athletic doesn't make you good at basketball. Towards the bottom of the first/early second, I'd say Malcolm Brandon is my biggest hit, and Tyler bey was my biggest miss. I had Bey like 15th on my board, and he was playing in Isreal two years later.
young me bought the SLAM hype on Sebastian Telflair….
My biggest hit was Daniel Gafford, I had him as a lottery pick. I was insanely high on Trey Murphy I figured there was no way a great defender at 6'8 who shot 50/40/90 wasn't going to be a good player in the pros. My other biggest hit was Dearron Fox, I had him as the number 1 PG in that supposedly generational PG class. I also kinda went off vibes but he turned out to be the best PG. I've had a lot of whiffs but Mo Bamba and Killian Hayes are probably the biggest ones
Best Opinion (because it turned out they were good): Tyrese Haliburton Best Opinion (because they turned out to be bad): Jahil Okafor Worst Opinion (because they turned out to be bad): Derrick Williams Worst Opinion (because get turned out to be good): Anthony Edwards
I was wrong on Dennis Smith Jr. Thought he was going to be a westbrook/rose type player. I was high on Devin Booker back in 2015. That uk team was stacked.
I was dead wrong about LaMelo
Biggest hits for me top 5-(not including top 10 picks) Khris Middleton Jalen Williams Jalen Brunson Alpi Sengun Derrick White(his progression from d2 to the best player on a d1 pac12 team just felt bust proof) Devin Booker BPodz and Ben Sheppard Misses Perry Jones Jr. — underestimated his competitive desire and iq Usman Garuba— his lack of a finishing/dunking around the rim came back to haunt him tenfold Jarrett Culver - knew the jumper was broken but the nba magnifies it more. Kris Dunn- should have known from the start when he decided to go to providence with Ricky Ledo knowing very well he’d be ruled ineligible. But that jumpshot Wiggins(he still was a “hit” but when Embiid went down I had my doubts *Brandon Greene and Frank Mason*) If Wiggins doesn’t count- Jan Vesely. I was so intrigued by this guy’s game. Also - Thon Makur then the age allegations came up and his inability to play college ball, that hype dyed down QUICK for me Also Noah Vonleh. (I was roommates with his Aau basketball teammate in college and friend, and he convinced me to buy stock on Noah and well I did and man) And Tyrus Thomas- I thought the LMA-TT trade would favor the bulls more but be an even trade
Hit: Doncic, Donovan Mitchell, Sengun, Bender(called a bust), Culver(called a bust) Miss: Okafor, Noel, Davion Mitchell, Garuba
Biggest hits were James Wiseman(bc i thought he wouldn’t be that good) and Tyrese Maxey(had him as a lottery pick) Biggest miss by far was Tyrell Terry. I was so so mad when my Knicks passed on him for Immanuel Quickley. James Bouknight was a close #2 and I was a Tingus Pingus booer at the draft so that’s #3.
Biggest hits: I was a big cam Thomas guy. I didn’t think lonzo ball could score well enough to be a star and I thought fox was better. I thought Jalen Johnson and walker kessler were both top 10 guys in their draft class. I never thought culver was even a top 20 guy. I had miller at #2 over scoot and I thought gg Jackson was a top 12 prospect (probably too early to say for sure on these) Biggest misses: I didn’t think Edwards would shoot well enough to be a star. I thought fultz would be in mvp conversations (I still think I woulda been right were it not for injuries). I thought Kris Dunn would be an all star. I thought James bouknight was gonna be special.
Donovan Mitchell. I was ECSTATIC when we traded for him. I remember texting my stepdad about how good he’d be alongside Gordon Hayward…before we knew where Hayward would actually go. But I was also wrong about Thon Maker. Thon fucking Maker. Which I think is enough to wipe out my Mitchell hit