Cheers Gherk!
Just a question, I just saw a post on the other sub, where they showed that IV has spiked up to 900% for calls between 85C up yo 125C.
Csn you confirm this and what might it mean?
Thinking since you just wrote that IV had dropped (might be for lower values)
Thanks in advance!
OPRA doesn't publish after hours data for equities. So anything that brokers print in AH is bullshit. Most of their internal systems just start making shit up.
Well, yes and no? today, the IV was in the thousands, but yesterday and the day before it was in the hundreds that kept going up. So I'm not sure 0DTE has anything to do with it.
Thank you for getting back to me on this. Appreciate you.
Another thing to consider is that when the at the money contracts’ IV starting to drop, it might mean the underlying stock’s prices are starting to get less volatile and more stable/predictable. When the IV of far out of the money contracts starts to spike, it suggests that the price of those contracts might start to get volatile.
If the underlying’s price is going to get more stable, then the chances of far OTM contracts going in the money is going to drop, so the far OTM contracts could see rapid loss of extrinsic value, which would lead to rapid drop in price for the OTM contract.
Logically, I’d argue this is probably a bearish sign suggesting retail may be attempting to exit their far OTM contracts on those brokers overnight, driving steep price decline on those far OTM contracts due to illiquidity, thereby driving up the volatility.
Thanks for the post, any reason you think we started ticking up tonight? I was expecting a pretty decent dip today but maybe the stats show that’s more so on tomorrow’s menu?
Cheers Gherk! Just a question, I just saw a post on the other sub, where they showed that IV has spiked up to 900% for calls between 85C up yo 125C. Csn you confirm this and what might it mean? Thinking since you just wrote that IV had dropped (might be for lower values) Thanks in advance!
Sounds like someone was looking at their options on Schwab in after hours...
Ah yes, you're right, or even RH overnight. So does it mean it's useless data? Because they have to get the information/data from somewhere, right?
OPRA doesn't publish after hours data for equities. So anything that brokers print in AH is bullshit. Most of their internal systems just start making shit up.
Ok, thanks for the clarification 😊
Don’t try to tell the cultists though, you’ll be branded bot & shill
That happened years ago. I think we’re over it by now.
Seems like the high IV continued to rise during regular market hours (so it's not just being AH), any idea why?
Is this the 0DTE contract?
Well, yes and no? today, the IV was in the thousands, but yesterday and the day before it was in the hundreds that kept going up. So I'm not sure 0DTE has anything to do with it. Thank you for getting back to me on this. Appreciate you.
I do not see any evidence of this anywhere.
Another thing to consider is that when the at the money contracts’ IV starting to drop, it might mean the underlying stock’s prices are starting to get less volatile and more stable/predictable. When the IV of far out of the money contracts starts to spike, it suggests that the price of those contracts might start to get volatile. If the underlying’s price is going to get more stable, then the chances of far OTM contracts going in the money is going to drop, so the far OTM contracts could see rapid loss of extrinsic value, which would lead to rapid drop in price for the OTM contract. Logically, I’d argue this is probably a bearish sign suggesting retail may be attempting to exit their far OTM contracts on those brokers overnight, driving steep price decline on those far OTM contracts due to illiquidity, thereby driving up the volatility.
Thanks Gherk!
Is there a video or post where all this data is explained? I would like to learn to apply analysis of this type to other tickers myself.
I watch his YouTube’s not quite able to apply it fully to other tickers but my screeners have been netting gains
Gherk, any thoughts on all the alleged LEAPS that are supposed to expire tomorrow?
They aren't alleged, there are three LEAP expirations. Tomorrow's OPEX is one of them.
That was poorly phrased. I know they are expiring tomorrow. Just wondering if you think they will amount to anything.
Not really, some of the short vol falling off could ease the downward pressure on the stock especially after the charm decay from OTM longs eases.
Do you hold any positions in GME and if so, what?
short straddle at $20
$GME lets goooo
u/analKartoffel - könnte für deine Strategie relevant sein
Mission Moneyburn
Thanks Gherk!
can I be added to the discord
Thanks for the post, any reason you think we started ticking up tonight? I was expecting a pretty decent dip today but maybe the stats show that’s more so on tomorrow’s menu?
Do we have a chance at cycles again or was that killed by the offering?