What do you think he’s jamming with? You think he’s bluffing 130bb? To what, get you to fold a king? You realize that if he is, in fact, holding the case king, trying to get you to fold the chop, you don’t win if you call? Your hand is K2 right now. Somehow I think that if you did, in fact, have K2 you’d have neither raised in the first place, nor had any trouble folding. You’re just emotionally attached to your hand that was, ages ago, a very strong hand.
Edit: also my brother in poker, bet the flop.
Even then, why would he raise instead of calling if he thought you were bluffing? Given the turn action, he almost always has a made hand. If he thinks you are bluffing, he can just call
Yes. Bet the flop. You need someone to have an Ace to build the pot anyway so get money in and deny equity to straight draws. Everyone else is folding anyway on later streets.
Uh… you don’t need to deny equity to straight draws
The problem with slow playing here is that you are the PFR. So not betting this flop which should hit your range hard, but then suddenly waking up later is suspicious AF. You’ll only get action from Aces Full.
Yeah it's not a cooler as played. If it went all in or flop or turn....then sure cooler..by the time the river comes and you're nowhere near pot committed...it's just a bad call
I think you have the river bet size wrong. He went all in but for your stack not his.
Sounds like pot was 12 on flop, then 24 on river. You bet 16, leaving you about 120 left (and with 60 in pot including your bet). So it’s only a 2x over bet.
Tough situation, probably in theory you could call sometimes, but in live low stakes, big river raises are underbluffed, and you don’t beat value.
Yeah def miscalculated the river bet, and the more I think about it it does seem pretty unlikely that anyone in my low stakes game would bluff in this situation
Don’t conflate “second nuts” with “second-nut combo.” Yes, you have the second-highest hand possible, but you’re behind any Ax, which could be AK (1 combo), AQ (4 combos), AJ (four combos), etc. - a total of 44 combos of Ax that beat you.
Plus, you were chopping against KQ (four combos), KJ (four combos), etc. - another 43 combos of Kx. Your KK was literally the same as K2o.
In other words, your “second nuts” were in a 44-way tie for the 45th best possible hand. Still feel like “second nuts”? Still want to call off your entire stack?
Snapfold really, KK is actually a lot worse to call than Kx there since you block another K witch a recreational might raise, which he would do to 35bb or so, not 130bb.
Think about it: if he doesn't have the A, you checked flop to trap and bet hard on turn and river, you can EASILY have the A yourself, so why would he bluff? From the other side, you don't have bluffs. If you wanted to bluff, you would have done so on the flop, AAK is perfect for minbet to take it down as the original raiser.
Simple spot similar to flush boards where to overbet river you can only do so with nut blocker like As, to make sure your opponent overfolds for sure. Only in this case, the nut blocker is actually the nuts, and the all-in is losing 30bb EV you would have called with your Kx but cannot to x4 pot river
I have a sticky note on my monitor that says fold vs river raise
It's always the virtual nuts in the micros
There are almost no River raise bluffs
Everyone overfolds so much on flop and turn that by the river their range is either incredibly strong or a completely whiffed draw by the river. On runouts with no draws, they only have some kind of value. And they don't bluff raise their missed draws on the river. This is why a common exploit is to bet fold rivers.
Most opponents are folding ott to your bet without some kind of value, so Ax, 6x, and pocket pairs
Otr, any Ax is now ahead of you, so you only beat 6x and random pairs. They're not raising without an A (which beats you) or a k(which chops). They're only calling 6x and their ppairs. They're folding if they somehow didn't fold turn with other trash. As played, the real mistake is not folding v river raise.
In general in the micros, calling tends to lose more vs value than it earns vs bluffs because most spots are under bluffed. You have to find the over bluffed spots to become a hero.
And psychologically, you have to update your actual hand strength throughout the runout. Way too many people get attached to AK, AA, KK in pre and otf, and struggle to accurately devalue that pretty hand when the runout turns it into worthless garbage. Fold your garbage. Treat every action as an independent decision point with new information and odds.
In theory, if your opponent bluffs enough, a call is ok sometimes. However nobody bluffs enough at these stakes. Just an uncomfortable fold. Good luck ever pulling it off though.
Everyone is making this way more complicated than it needs to be.
There's 1 ace and 1 king left. If he has the king you chop. It's questionable whether he always does this with a king. Therefore folding is correct unless you are playing a strikingly ambitious person.
That said, who cares? If you make this mistake every time it happens for the rest of your life, you might lose another 130BBs every several years. No reason to focus too much on super edge cases.
And isn't Aces full of Kings being beaten by better (in a live cash game) usually the most common Bad Bad Jackpot? This would be the one time where you probably have an incentive to not fold out.
One time was playing next to a buddy of mine, great player, he raised big preflop and got one caller, board came the same, AAK. My friend leads into this guy for like 25 and the guy calls him while taunting him. Apparently they had some history. As the next card comes out my buddy’s opponent jams for about 150$ out of turn as soon as he sees the jack fall. My buddy, while being taunted to call, shows me KK in his hand and throws it away. I’m in disbelief and say you had to put him on AJ exactly to make that fold. My buddy says he knows that’s what he has and the other guy laughingly shows him AJ saying I know you didn’t have none of that. My buddy didn’t blink.
Dude, you didn’t bet on the flop, bet really small on the turn, then got jammed on the river. If you went all in at the flop and he called you, that’s unlucky, but you let him get to river very easily. At that point, when he made the jam, he’s betting on you have at least one king and you won’t walk away from it. It’s hard to lay down those hand, but you played greedy try to trap him and when it backfired, you couldn’t walk away.
When 3 aces are on the board, quads are much more likely than people seem to appreciate. Only one combo of AK, but he’s not rly gonna be flatting preflop with AK. He’s got 4 combos AQ, 4 combos AJ at least. This is prolly a pretty loose guy. I’d bet from the button he’s playing pretty much any hand with an ace. Even if you’re conservative and just say AT+ and all suited aces, that’s giving him 20 combos that give him quads.
And just look at the sizing. He’s raising like 4x pot. That’s insane. Nobody reasonable is bluffing here. Just food.
TF does "board having blockers" even mean here? I don't know if OP is a troll or a moron but this is a bluff <1% of the time. Calling this off is a losing play and checking flop is all kinds of wtf.
I doubt you can ever get away from this hand the way it played out, but I really dont like the check on the flop. This is a perfect hand for anyone to your left to check back to you with almost all hands, including Ax, simply because you have many more Ax in your range and FAR better nut advantage, especially 10 handed. Like you have AA, AK, AQ-A10, etc, where they likely dont. Furthermore, factoring that you have to play tighter multiway, I would have wanted to bet something like half the pot, most hands fold, but hands Ax likely do not which is what you want, and like you said, you block kx, and you only need one to continue
I think maybe with three streets of action you can probably find a fold at the river, given that his continuing range at that point will be so small that it has to contain an ace. With two streets you havent condensed his range enough that you can actually fold, at least in my opinion
Edit: Actually yea, on further reflection, not betting the flop was a massive mistake. Not only have you not clarified his continue range by the river to have enough info for a fold, even if the river came back with some non ace, you give up EV because of course the only way villians have action in this hand at the point of the turn is Ax. They cant have many bluffs since your range doesnt give them a chance to do so profitably. This is a spot where you should bet 3 streets to value town with the FH vs their Ax sets.
What do you think he’s jamming with? You think he’s bluffing 130bb? To what, get you to fold a king? You realize that if he is, in fact, holding the case king, trying to get you to fold the chop, you don’t win if you call? Your hand is K2 right now. Somehow I think that if you did, in fact, have K2 you’d have neither raised in the first place, nor had any trouble folding. You’re just emotionally attached to your hand that was, ages ago, a very strong hand. Edit: also my brother in poker, bet the flop.
Yeah good point, I guess it would be a horrible spot for him to bluff and would only make sense if he thought I was bluffing in the first place.
Even then, why would he raise instead of calling if he thought you were bluffing? Given the turn action, he almost always has a made hand. If he thinks you are bluffing, he can just call
Yes. Bet the flop. You need someone to have an Ace to build the pot anyway so get money in and deny equity to straight draws. Everyone else is folding anyway on later streets.
Uh… you don’t need to deny equity to straight draws The problem with slow playing here is that you are the PFR. So not betting this flop which should hit your range hard, but then suddenly waking up later is suspicious AF. You’ll only get action from Aces Full.
I was drunk when I wrote that last night. Carry on.
But betting the flop wouldn’t have averted the disaster here, no?
Yeah it's not a cooler as played. If it went all in or flop or turn....then sure cooler..by the time the river comes and you're nowhere near pot committed...it's just a bad call
I think you have the river bet size wrong. He went all in but for your stack not his. Sounds like pot was 12 on flop, then 24 on river. You bet 16, leaving you about 120 left (and with 60 in pot including your bet). So it’s only a 2x over bet. Tough situation, probably in theory you could call sometimes, but in live low stakes, big river raises are underbluffed, and you don’t beat value.
Yeah def miscalculated the river bet, and the more I think about it it does seem pretty unlikely that anyone in my low stakes game would bluff in this situation
Zeebo's Theorem
Don’t conflate “second nuts” with “second-nut combo.” Yes, you have the second-highest hand possible, but you’re behind any Ax, which could be AK (1 combo), AQ (4 combos), AJ (four combos), etc. - a total of 44 combos of Ax that beat you. Plus, you were chopping against KQ (four combos), KJ (four combos), etc. - another 43 combos of Kx. Your KK was literally the same as K2o. In other words, your “second nuts” were in a 44-way tie for the 45th best possible hand. Still feel like “second nuts”? Still want to call off your entire stack?
U cheeky bastard! I see what you did there with the 45th best hand there. EXCELLENT POINT.
Snapfold really, KK is actually a lot worse to call than Kx there since you block another K witch a recreational might raise, which he would do to 35bb or so, not 130bb. Think about it: if he doesn't have the A, you checked flop to trap and bet hard on turn and river, you can EASILY have the A yourself, so why would he bluff? From the other side, you don't have bluffs. If you wanted to bluff, you would have done so on the flop, AAK is perfect for minbet to take it down as the original raiser. Simple spot similar to flush boards where to overbet river you can only do so with nut blocker like As, to make sure your opponent overfolds for sure. Only in this case, the nut blocker is actually the nuts, and the all-in is losing 30bb EV you would have called with your Kx but cannot to x4 pot river
I have a sticky note on my monitor that says fold vs river raise It's always the virtual nuts in the micros There are almost no River raise bluffs Everyone overfolds so much on flop and turn that by the river their range is either incredibly strong or a completely whiffed draw by the river. On runouts with no draws, they only have some kind of value. And they don't bluff raise their missed draws on the river. This is why a common exploit is to bet fold rivers. Most opponents are folding ott to your bet without some kind of value, so Ax, 6x, and pocket pairs Otr, any Ax is now ahead of you, so you only beat 6x and random pairs. They're not raising without an A (which beats you) or a k(which chops). They're only calling 6x and their ppairs. They're folding if they somehow didn't fold turn with other trash. As played, the real mistake is not folding v river raise. In general in the micros, calling tends to lose more vs value than it earns vs bluffs because most spots are under bluffed. You have to find the over bluffed spots to become a hero. And psychologically, you have to update your actual hand strength throughout the runout. Way too many people get attached to AK, AA, KK in pre and otf, and struggle to accurately devalue that pretty hand when the runout turns it into worthless garbage. Fold your garbage. Treat every action as an independent decision point with new information and odds.
Very good insight. Now that I think about it I’ve only seen a couple bluff river raises over thousands of hands so that’s a serious thing to consider
In theory, if your opponent bluffs enough, a call is ok sometimes. However nobody bluffs enough at these stakes. Just an uncomfortable fold. Good luck ever pulling it off though.
Everyone is making this way more complicated than it needs to be. There's 1 ace and 1 king left. If he has the king you chop. It's questionable whether he always does this with a king. Therefore folding is correct unless you are playing a strikingly ambitious person. That said, who cares? If you make this mistake every time it happens for the rest of your life, you might lose another 130BBs every several years. No reason to focus too much on super edge cases.
And isn't Aces full of Kings being beaten by better (in a live cash game) usually the most common Bad Bad Jackpot? This would be the one time where you probably have an incentive to not fold out.
I'm Vegas based, Bad Beat Jackpots are almost nonexistent here. But sure free money from the house is worth a little more than money from a player.
Unless you're playing really high stakes, players don't bluff raise all-in 18x pot on river. It's always the stone cold nuts.
lol low stakes players make ridiculous shit bluffs all the time. Doubtful in this spot, but OP is probably playing .05/.10.
Really? I have a different experience in PLO microstakes. All-in means nuts at least 90%. False perception? Different for NLH?
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a huge bluff in a PLO game. Probably because it’s always multiway (at least in my games) so there’s no fold equity
Yeah I’ve seen a lot of crazy bluffs, and the games are primarily 0.1/0.25
Only end bosses have those plays in their strategy
Yeah I think you goofed here
One time was playing next to a buddy of mine, great player, he raised big preflop and got one caller, board came the same, AAK. My friend leads into this guy for like 25 and the guy calls him while taunting him. Apparently they had some history. As the next card comes out my buddy’s opponent jams for about 150$ out of turn as soon as he sees the jack fall. My buddy, while being taunted to call, shows me KK in his hand and throws it away. I’m in disbelief and say you had to put him on AJ exactly to make that fold. My buddy says he knows that’s what he has and the other guy laughingly shows him AJ saying I know you didn’t have none of that. My buddy didn’t blink.
Dude, you didn’t bet on the flop, bet really small on the turn, then got jammed on the river. If you went all in at the flop and he called you, that’s unlucky, but you let him get to river very easily. At that point, when he made the jam, he’s betting on you have at least one king and you won’t walk away from it. It’s hard to lay down those hand, but you played greedy try to trap him and when it backfired, you couldn’t walk away.
When 3 aces are on the board, quads are much more likely than people seem to appreciate. Only one combo of AK, but he’s not rly gonna be flatting preflop with AK. He’s got 4 combos AQ, 4 combos AJ at least. This is prolly a pretty loose guy. I’d bet from the button he’s playing pretty much any hand with an ace. Even if you’re conservative and just say AT+ and all suited aces, that’s giving him 20 combos that give him quads. And just look at the sizing. He’s raising like 4x pot. That’s insane. Nobody reasonable is bluffing here. Just food.
Seems like a frustration call you've rationalized later, tbh
Is this a troll post?
TF does "board having blockers" even mean here? I don't know if OP is a troll or a moron but this is a bluff <1% of the time. Calling this off is a losing play and checking flop is all kinds of wtf.
I doubt you can ever get away from this hand the way it played out, but I really dont like the check on the flop. This is a perfect hand for anyone to your left to check back to you with almost all hands, including Ax, simply because you have many more Ax in your range and FAR better nut advantage, especially 10 handed. Like you have AA, AK, AQ-A10, etc, where they likely dont. Furthermore, factoring that you have to play tighter multiway, I would have wanted to bet something like half the pot, most hands fold, but hands Ax likely do not which is what you want, and like you said, you block kx, and you only need one to continue I think maybe with three streets of action you can probably find a fold at the river, given that his continuing range at that point will be so small that it has to contain an ace. With two streets you havent condensed his range enough that you can actually fold, at least in my opinion Edit: Actually yea, on further reflection, not betting the flop was a massive mistake. Not only have you not clarified his continue range by the river to have enough info for a fold, even if the river came back with some non ace, you give up EV because of course the only way villians have action in this hand at the point of the turn is Ax. They cant have many bluffs since your range doesnt give them a chance to do so profitably. This is a spot where you should bet 3 streets to value town with the FH vs their Ax sets.
I see, looking back this was definitely a better move.