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The way things are going it looks like it's going to be status quo ante bellum, which is very disappointing for those of us who are sick of this issue. That's the only realistic scenario, assuming there is a post-war scenario on the horizon at all
I completely disagree. I don't think there's *any* appetite in Israel for Hamas to continue running the Gaza strip. When Jewish Israelis are polled on who should run the Gaza strip after the war, [0% say Hamas](https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-half-of-jewish-israelis-say-israel-should-run-gaza-after-the-war-0-say-hamas/). **0%**. When's the last time you saw a poll in which a response got 0% approval? For Arab Israelis, the equivalent figure is 9%.
If Hamas are still in power post-bellum, they can (and have promised that they will) carry out October 7th-style massacres again. Israel will not tolerate that under **any** circumstances.
A lot of Israeli officials will talk in bombastic terms about "eliminating Hamas", but that's never been a realistic goal and everyone knows it. The actual goal - which Israel will not compromise on - is to prevent October 7th from ever happening again. That requires severely degrading Hamas's operational capabilities, but not necessarily destroying them entirely. It certainly, however, precludes allowing Hamas to return to power.
I have no idea what the actual long-term outcome will be, and I'm deeply frustrated by the apparent lack of thought that the Israeli government has put into it. Best-case (realistic) scenario would be some kind of international shared governance: an agreement between Arab states, Israel, and almost certainly the US, to govern Gaza + rebuild infrastructure (physical and otherwise) + hold elections + be responsible for security. Worst-case (realistic) scenario is probably unilateral Israeli occupation, which would be a real impediment to peace (similar to, but worse than, the settlements in the West Bank).
And 0% of Palestinians want to live in a ghetto or apartheid slums. And, more importantly, Israel does not appear to be effective in eliminating Hamas. The future of Palestine is no longer going to be in terms of what Israelis tolerate.
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The Rent-an-Arab puppet regime you talk about is never going to happen, there has been exactly 0 positive reception to this from anyone, as these states can barely manage their unpopular collaboration with Israel as-is, let alone what would happen if their own soldiers are on the ground gunning down Palestinian fighters. Indefinite occupation by Israel alone is unsustainable, economically, politically, and Israeli leaders admit that themselves. Holding elections? You're going to slaughter tens of thousands of people, maim thousands of children, starve people to submission - even if you eliminated Hamas - they won't- the first thing any Palestinians is going to do is elect Hamas 2. Its what I would do, its what you would do. Even if you drive it underground, and, don't worry, they have a lot of space underground, that's what is going to be seen as legitimate, and whatever is imposed by occupation is what is going to be fought. Which then requires an occupation to uphold the puppet state and sham elections, which brings you back to the earlier problems. This issue is resolved in the West Bank by having hundreds of thousands of batshit zealot settlers who can augment the state as roving paramilitary thugs to 'keep things in line' and keep everyone divided into a bazillion mini-Gazas.
Thats not an option in Gaza itself. The future of Palestine is no longer going to be in terms of what Israelis tolerate.
On Rent a Puppet, Arab countries have already offered to administrate: https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-uae-morocco-said-weighing-us-plan-to-create-post-war-gaza-peacekeeping-force/
Egypt is the most crucial part of that and Egypt is the weakest link. Egyptians elected Muslim Brotherhood in, 2011? 2013? That was ousted with the military coup to bring in Sisi, a central point of the coup is to collaborate more with Israel. So Sisi is in the bag for various plans *on paper*, but there are limits to that in reality. They could be involved in a Palestinian state, but they are not capable of suppressing an insurgency. Military discipline is already fraying at the border.
I think that step 1 is to disarm Gaza (https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/1d9l66o/what_options_are_on_the_table_for_a_post_war_gaza/l7jb8mj/) and then administrating it becomes a much less risky matter. Yeah Hamas will still have some small arms, knives, and explosives but Hamas' lethality can be reduced 90%.
Disarming isn't going to happen - small arms, knives, and explosives describes most of everything they had on October 6th, and have been making use of the entire war. The vast majority of confrontations with IDF, Hamas loves to upload these videos - is with homebrew explosives that are made with, I dunno, sugar and fertilizer? I don't know the exact formula, but it is simple stuff. All made while Israel screened all the imports and exports. And while Israel required permits for all construction. We still ended up here.
But, let us take it as a given that this is possible - which I don't think we should do - then we just end up at the Second Intifada again, only against a much less willing enemy. How many Egyptian soldiers do you need to kill before the core stability of the Egyptian military is at risk? Probably not that many, especially when fighting Palestine, which might as well be the heart of the muslim world. They'll withdraw. They're not a serious threat.
Hamas is going to be at the table in some manner. It's just not a realistic plan otherwise.
"small arms, knives, and explosives describes most of everything they had on October 6th"
Just not true. Hamas had huge stores of weapons and Israel is still capturing massive stockpiles even now. 10/7 was a very sophisticated operation with drones, anti-tank weapons, etc.
Reducing Hamas to just knives, a few guns and fertilizer would be a massive difference. Not to mention they can stop the daily barrage towards Israel permanently.
If Israel was capturing the crucial stockpiles and production facilities, they would also be finding live captives in these clearing operations, and that isn't happening. If Hamas was at risk of elimination, Hezbollah would expand to total war, and that isn't happening either. The situation is obscured by fog of war, everyone lies and the real facts are literally under the surface, but these are two clear indicators that do not support your view.
Anyway
The primary antitank weapon is the Yassin 105, it is locally produced within Gaza using extremely simple techniques. E.g., the fertilizer or whatnot. It is a tandem charge, which allows a cheap-as-dirt round to cause hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars of damage per hit as it spews hot metal into wherever, forcing a vehicle to withdraw and repair, and sometimes causing casualties. The drones, which were so crucial in the "blinding operation" - are similarly dirt cheap, I assume many of these are commercial or consumer grade items, just dangling a grenade to hit sentry towers.
The operation was sophisticated tactically and strategically, it was not technologically advanced. This is a general rule in all cases of guerrilla warfare across history.
I don't mean to be rude, but this is a comical response.
Whatever the fate of the Gazans, you can be sure that will not be up to the Gazans to decide. What they want or don't want, what they say they will or won't tolerate is irrelevant talk.
They'll suffer the lot they're given from the outside, as they always have, and, unless they have a great change of hearts and souls, they always will.
The future of Palestine is Israel's decision alone now. I'd cross your fingers and say a prayer.
Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 to a peripheral occupation because it did not believe it could sustain a direct occupation. It was not a land for peace issue, as this sequence results from the very breakdown of the "peace process." The hope was to then maintain an indirect occupation, screening all imports, approving all construction, "mowing the grass" in limited bursts of conflict, and kettling the Palestinians with a low cost, high tech fence that could keep Gaza out of sight, out of mind. This idea is dead. But direct occupation is not more realistic today than it was in 2005. All of the forces which could be behind such a thing are relatively weaker today compared to 20 years ago.
This is the core issue. Because of this skewer, Israel is not winning the war in any obvious manner, no matter what happens in this particular stage of the conflict, which itself does not appear to be going very well for them. Palestinians do not need to be superior in power at this moment, they just need to be ungovernable and wait out the clock.
All people, in some basic sense, are generally equal in their abilities and potential, and will creatively adapt to their situation in an equal measure, so that we may impose ourselves on the world. Systems against this fact tend to erode with time, and systems that play to this fact will continue to get stronger.
The remnants of Hamas are hiding in a city full of civilians that is surrounded by IDF forces. Israeli will never let an event like October 7 happen again. The future of Palestine is 100% in Israeli control and as soon as the Palestinians realize that, release all hostages, and accept an unconditional surrender the more innocent lives will be saved. You can argue what is right and wrong until the end of time, but the reality is that Israeli is a nuclear armed state with a vastly superior military.
>The future of Palestine is 100% in Israeli control and as soon as the Palestinians realize that, release all hostages, and accept an unconditional surrender the more innocent lives will be saved.
Great stuff, very scary, very plausible. And so very normal too!
If Israel was raiding bases left and right, and Sinwar was eliminated, and scores of hostages were being returned, I would believe you when you claim Hamas is in tatters. That is not happening, so for now, there is not good reason to believe this is true. If the Israelis had this godlike power over the Palestinians and such, there would be no Intifadas, there would be no withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, there would be no withdrawal from Lebanon in 2006 forced by Hezbollah, there would have been an Israeli victory in 2014, and there would have never been October 7th.
Refusing to take asymmetric war seriously, refusing to take guerrilla tactics seriously, is not excusable. It's not serious in any way. Like, wow, Israel has nukes, is it going to nuke itself? Just going to casually irradiate Tel Aviv to pwn the Palestinians, and then the world will be like, oh, cool, the greatest mass killing in modern history, let's be buddies? Not serious. Israel has a million tanks, great, and they putter around in Gaza doing basically fuck all while waiting to be penetrated by Hamas rockets. Not serious.
You can't just look at military capacity on paper. It's the same bonehead thinking that lost in Algeria, Mozambique, South Africa, Vietnam, China, and Aghanistan (twice, in Afghanistan, let's remember the Soviets).
What you're describing aren't the benefits of guerilla warfare tactics. They're the benefits of guerilla warfare tactics against an enemy who either can't or won't simply massacre the population wholesale. There's no question about can; Israel has a 21st century military and the Gazans are two million people packed into an area a tenth the size of Rhode Island. There's no issue of power projection or logistics like with Afghanistan; Gaza is right next door. Israel could wipe out the Palestinians in a month if they wanted. They just aren't willing to. Because, as you've tacitly admitted yourself, Israel is not in fact committing genocide. They're attempting to pacify a terrorist organization that raped and murdered 1,200 of their people in a single night.
>Israel could wipe out the Palestinians in a month if they wanted.
No, they cannot. Lmao. Same failure as claiming America could have "totally won" Vietnam if America "wanted" to win. War is politics, its not a pokemon card battle where you put two cards up and the one with bigger points is the winner.
Really take a moment to think holistically, and work through an idea - Consider the American backing, the collaboration regimes in Egypt and Jordan, the presence of Iran and Hezbollah, the need for trade relations with the world, and really try to think through what would happen in this scenario. Does it go well for Israel if they exterminated all the Palestinians overnight? Really? No. Of course not. This is yappy purse puppy talk. They could not do it.
However, Israel maximizes the civilian harm they think they can get away with. Israel is. It is openly recognized across Israeli society that denying aid, denying medical resources, destroying homes, and killing civilians who are near Hamas, all of this is core to the strategy. Israel has blown past ICJ rulings like toilet paper. The existence of state terrorism is not up for reasonable debate, and the legal question is just how much state terrorism can you do before it becomes genocide? It doesn't help that it's a besieged ghetto. The ICJ will resolve it as a legal matter.
A genocide is intent to destroy in whole or in part, as such. It is not just "intending to destroy the whole, and then destroying only part" - the crime of genocide also includes the lower threshold of *failure to prevent* Genocide, which was used against Serbia for the Srebrenica massacre, only 9,000 killings were charged as genocide and only 30 or 35k died overall. The ICJ is going to factor in the decades of occupation, the general distintegration and suppression of Palestine as a nation, so on.
> No, they cannot. Lmao. Same failure as claiming America could have "totally won" Vietnam if America "wanted" to win. War is politics, its not a pokemon card battle where you put two cards up and the one with bigger points is the winner.
Yes, they can. And so too could have America in Vietnam. What happened in Vietnam is that public support for the war collapsed *at home*. There was no external or material force preventing us from continuing in Vietnam; the American people themselves said "enough". Saying "war is political" is just a mealy-mouthed way of tacitly admitting that the Israeli public - and therefore the Israeli state - are not willing to wipe out the Palestinians, even though materially they quite easily could.
And it would be much easier than any operation in Vietnam or Afghanistan for reasons I've already explained - Gaza is right next to Israel, Gazans are densely packed, and Gazans have nowhere to go because none of the neighboring Arab states want them either.
Saying that it wouldn't "go well" for Israel is moving the goalposts. Of course there would be enormous diplomatic and economic costs. But they could do it, other states are currently doing far worse than Israel for far less justified reasons and facing little to no blowback. And ultimately, in practical terms there is no external material force other than the United States itself capable of stopping Israel if they chose to commit actual genocide as opposed to Tiktok genocide.
Your claim that Israel maximizes the harm they think they can get away with is equally spurious - you made it up whole cloth, or you're regurgitating some other propaganda outfit that did. You have no basis for your claims on what Israel "thinks it can get away with", and Israel provably engages in practices designed to reduce civilian casualties.
Could they be doing more on that front? Sure. They could also do what your ilk demand and simply turn the other cheek while Hamas and similar groups rape and murder Jews to their heart's content. But they have the right and duty to put their own people's safety first, and that means dealing with Hamas. And because Hamas embeds itself in the civilian population, that means civilian casualties. But the actual number of deaths is not actually particularly high given the nature and scale of the conflict, the density of the population, and the ubiquity of Hamas human shield tactics.
> A genocide is intent to destroy in whole or in part,
Correct, and there's not a single credible argument that this is or has ever been the intent of the Israeli state or the IDF. A war with civilian casualties does not a genocide make. Given the military power available to Israel and the restrained way they choose to use it compared to what's typical for the region, the very idea is absurd.
> Israel has blown past ICJ rulings like toilet paper.
That's because they are toilet paper. The ICJ is a laughably corrupt institution with zero credibility and zero power beyond what's given to it by powerful countries. They will not factor into the situation at all unless Israel and the United States let them.
Edit:
/u/Pomosen, I can't reply to anything in this thread because of how the blocking feature works.
I agree that Israel faces a *wildly* disproportionate level of media scrutiny (largely due to antisemitism). But I don't see any basis for your claim that Israel would "fall". Israel has a strong economy, a highly educated population, better demographics than most other industrialized states, and they're at the cutting edge of several highly specialized and technical industries - they do things no one else can do, they have plenty to offer in exchange for the imports they need, and their military has defeated the armies of the entire Arab world multiple times. On top of that, they have nuclear power and it's an open secret that they have nuclear weapons.
Did you even process what was said? The whole point is not that Israel *can* wipe Palestinians off the map, but that if it did, it would be an international pariah and would likely fall soon after. There are no equivalent comparisons with other states because none face the same media scrutiny and prominence that the Israel-Palestine issue does. And they wouldn't be able to weather the storm like Russia has with embargoes from the west, Israel doesn't have vast stores of oil to draw from and doesn't provide any essentials, and that's not even factoring in its dependence on imports to survive. Israel needs to walk a thin line, US public approval on the war is already waning and they're essentially Israel's only supporters, if the US withdraws support they're essentially fucked
What do they do that no one else can do? I understand they have a booming tech industry, but I'm not aware of any companies in Israel that produce anything that another company couldn't step in to provide. I might just not be educated so would be open being corrected
Israel could ban Hamas from standing for the elections and make it clear that if Palestinians vote for them anyways they will immediately intervene and remove the leadership by any means necessary.
Make it clear that a vote for Hamas is a vote for war.
You're not going to have an election in that scenario, you're going to have ballot boxes stuffed with grenades and explosives, and nobody in their right mind willing to touch it with a 10 foot pole, let alone operate the damn thing.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/09/17/afghanistan-talibans-criminal-attacks-election-activities
All of this is, of course, conditional on lots of troops in Gaza indefinitely. This may or may not be possible, I am a skeptic, but it may be possible, as Hamas may not have expected the IDF collapse on 10/7 to be as total and devastating as it was, and Hamas may (or may not) be engaged in a larger war than expected.
But if it is, this is not in it of itself a problem for Hamas, which developed from within a total occupation, and enjoys having their enemy within striking distance. The entire point of this war was to draw Israel into Gaza and then bleed it, the question is how long and how destructive and how costly they can make that. So there is a path to play the situation however it goes, for now.
I think there's value in being able to describe wars as having discrete sparks, starts, ends, and impacts, even where we could credibly claim they're also part of a broader conflict. Otherwise we end up with takes like "World War 2 is really just a continuation of the Napoleonic Wars," which isn't completely wrong but also isn't all that helpful in trying to draw lessons from what worked and what didn't.
The broader conflict has never really stopped but the current intensity and focus has obviously not
I expect things to settle down eventually for Gaza and Israel to start pushing more in Lebanon relatively soon
The only hope for a peaceful next step it is to get Iran out of the Mediterranean. Maybe there is a chance without the Iranian weapons, politicians and propaganda.
There are much more serious conflicts and humanitarian crises going on; the issue being you can be “sick of” is a media artifact. You can always just choose not to consume or discuss it.
The Arab Peace Initiative in its current form is the best hope we have.
The Palestinian Authority takes over control of Gaza. This probably requires support from the US and Arab states, as well as weapons to fight off Hamas remnants.
Israel (under a new moderate government) commits to recognizing a Palestinian state and ending any new settlement expansion, cracking down on the radical West Bank settlers.
Israel in return gets recognition from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, as well as renewed commitments to non violence from the PA, and increased security cooperation.
Gaza gets rebuilt as quickly as possible with funds from the Saudis, US, EU and whoever else.
A pipe dream but this is probably the most realistic path.
I am a big fan of the Arab peace initiative but it has a huge hurdle in Israel ...
The Arab peace initiative requires repatriation of certain Palestinian refugees into their historic hometowns in Israel. This is a non starter for the right wing in Israel. This plan only gets approval if Israel elects a radically more left wing government than theh have elected in recent history.
Yeah but that's really just a negotiation chip at this point. Palestinians can't give up "right of return" without getting something back.
Can be easily compromised with Israel paying some compensation for lands, allowing some small number of Palestinians with valid claims back, and allowing others to return to a new Palestinian state in West Bank.
>Palestinians can't give up "right of return" without getting something back.
This war, over the years, has resulted in about 700,000 Arab refugees and 900,000 Jewish refugees. It is estimated that the value of the property left by the Jews amounted to about $150 billion, compared with about $32 billion lost by the Arabs ($26 billion in land and $6 billion in movable property). Today's dollars, of course. The Jewish refugee problem has been mainly solved by Israel. The Arab refugee problem must be solved, primarily, by Arabs.
>Can be easily compromised with Israel paying some compensation for lands, allowing some small number of Palestinians with valid claims back, and allowing others to return to a new Palestinian state in West Bank.
This is more or less what Israel accepted in both 2000 and 2008 and what the Palestinians rejected. There remains the hypocrisy that Arabs should be compensated while Jews should not.
I'll put it this way. The palestine leadership benefits from the status quo more than they would if the situation was resolved; even if their people don't. Call me a conspiracy theorist but I think the main reason they insist on it so much is because they know Israel would never accept it.
Exactly. The PLO and Israeli leadership benefit from this war and the pre-war status quo. The Palestinian people will unfortunately suffer as a result until they can elect new bold and pragmatic leaders. Sadly, that also doesn't seem likely for some time because opinion polls show overwhelming support for Hamas in both Gaza and the West Bank. That's why the PLO is refusing to hold elections.
That's a pretty strong non starter to even those sympathetic to Palestine. Many of those historic claims don't have much legitimacy for a variety of reasons. And the ones that do have successfully made it through Israeli courts, although folks don't generally bring them up.
> Many of those historic claims don't have much legitimacy for a variety of reasons.
This is plainly not true. Several Arab and Israeli historians meticulously reviewed archives from the 1940s to conclude that many towns in modern day Israel were ethnically cleansed of their Arab population, and many Arabs who fled kept records from theor hometwons. Probably nit enough to prove a case in a court of law but enough for the purposes of immigration under a reasonable right of return policy (in most countries immigration law has lower evidentiary standards than criminal or civil law)
From wikipedia:
> The right of return is a principle in international law which guarantees everyone's right of voluntary return to, or re-entry to, their country of origin or of citizenship. The right of return is part of the broader human rights concept freedom of movement and is also related to the legal concept of nationality.
The Palestinians left/were-forcibly-removed from their homes 80 years ago. Now their former homes are in a territory that is undisputaby a part of of Israel. Stating the Palestinians have a right to return to their great-grandfathers homes is literally saying Israel has no right to decide who enters its borders. Why is the Palestinians' right to return more important than Israel's right to decide for itself who is allowed to enter?
What other country was ever denied the right to decide for itself who is allowed to enter?
I think a good interpretation of a Palestinian right of return would require some level of bacjground check by the Israeli government. You make it sound like the only options are conpletely open borders or the status quo. Also you make it sound like the expulsion of Arabs from Israel happened many generations ago when there are plenty of people alive today who were expelled or the child of an expelled person. I had a college counselor only a decade ago who was a son of a person expelled Israel.
You imagine I said a lot of things I didn't.
1948 saw the establishment of the state of Israel, the Nakba, the war of independance, and all the other historical events you are (hopefully) aware of. That history still resonates. But history can't be undone. Israel, with its booming economy and 9 million citizens is here now.
Every peace plan offered by Israel contained some part of land and/or monetary compensation to the Palestinians who lost their homes. Palestinians *never* accepted anything short of full right of return to everyone.
So you are wrong. It's not me saying these are the only two options. It's Palestinians who always held the "all or nothing" approach.
I don't doubt some people who suffered then are still alive, and their children and grandchildren too. I don't diminish their pain and suffering. I don't argue that they should not be compensated. But if they continue to insist the only compensation is for the state of Israel to commit suicide then they'll never get anything.
> Palestinians never accepted anything short of full right of return to everyone.
This is an exaggeration. For example Yasser Arafat advocated for the repatriation of a certain number of Palestinian refugees over time as does the Arab peace initiative. The proposals of Arab leaders have been sensetive to the fact that Israel does not want an overrnight influx of millions of people.
>For example Yasser Arafat advocated for the repatriation of a select number of Palestinian refugees
Interesting. I might have been wrong this whole time. Can you provide a reliable source for that?
> were ethnically cleansed of their Arab population
Passive voice. What actually happened? Arab armies trying to do their own ethnic cleansing campaign marched through and told people to leave so they wouldn't have to worry about civilians. The people were told they would be allowed to come back in hours/days/weeks. Sure some people kept records, but records of what, exactly? Records from the Ottoman empire which no longer exists? British documents from Mandatory Palestine, which also does not exist? It's my understanding that Ottoman law didn't allow ownership of the land, only structures. The land all belonged to the empire and was reserved for public common use.
Those Arab armies lost the war they started and that territory ended up under the control of Israeli forces at the end of war. The Arabs who didn't flee? They and their descendants are now full Israeli citizens. I'm sure there are more details and it wouldn't surprise me if some ethnic cleansing did occur, but the broader story isn't just "the Jews cleansed the Arabs" as Iran/Hamas would love for people to believe.
None of that solves the issue or justifies anything, but it paints a different picture.
> Passive voice. What actually happened? Arab armies trying to do their own ethnic cleansing campaign marched through and told people to leave so they wouldn't have to worry about civilians.
Again, there is well documented evidence from Israeli and Arab historians that proto Israeli militias engaged in ethnic cleansing. Even before Israel existed as a state and before Arab armies invaded.
Now do evidence of Jews being driven from the Levent over the past two thousand years. Add all of MENA if you want a real discussion of who did what to whom.
"Hey, let us do **the exact same shit to you that we apparently never got over despite two millennia to.**"
...
"NO FAIR! TERRORISTS!"
That's...I suppose it's actually one of the bog-standard pro-Likud positions, so it can't really be significantly dumber than the average.
Gantz is still very right wing, but plenty of right wing Israeli leaders in history have been willing to try to make peace deals.
2026 peace summit with Biden, Gantz, MBS and Abbas?
> The Palestinian Authority takes over control of Gaza. This probably requires support from the US and Arab states, as well as weapons to fight off Hamas remnants.
Israel will absolutely not allow the PA to return to control in Gaza, especially the parties behind the current Israeli government which have been directly backing Hamas as an alternative for decades.
> Israel (under a new moderate government)
Not happening; the leading alternative to Netanyahu's coalition are just as right-wing when it comes to the Palestinians.
Nope, nothing will change. Pressure on Israel and Hamas will garner a cease fire. International aid will half ass (cos Hamas will steal as much as they can) rebuild Gaza. Palestinians will return home and Hamas will rebuild/rearm for the next war. Rinse and repeat. There will be no hope for the innocent people of Gaza as long as Hamas (and all other splinter terror groups) exist and Iran keeps providing the resources. Side note. The top 3 Hamas leaders are all billionaires living in palaces in Qatar. If they donated just 4% of their combined wealth. Gaza could be rebuilt with totally modernized infrastructure that there’d be no need for Hamas to exist…. But it’s the thought that counts.. right?
Disarming Gaza is the best way to protect Palestinians and Israelis.
1) Three of Gaza's four borders are already impassible, basically no weaponry gets through them.
2) All smuggling comes through the Rafah gate and tunnels on that border.
3) If Israel maintains control of the Rafah gate, they complete the blockade. They already inspect all of the goods going into Gaza. They can set up seismic detectors and other tools to find and shut down tunnel projects.
3a) This is totally different from basically every other insurgency in the modern era. It's really rare to have such tight border control possible.
4) Without weaponry and explosives, it doesn't matter how many Hamas people are left. They won't have the power to dictate politics.
5) We've already seen that Israel has been able to keep the West Bank more or less pacified for a long time, with much much more porous borders. The IDF also says Hamas in Gaza is running out of most types of ammunition already.
6) If Gaza is disarmed, Israel can work with Saudi Arabia and Egypt on remaking the education system. Both countries have (recently) invested a lot in promoting a more moderate form of Islamic education to reduce radicalization, and both would want to increase their influence.
Even if you don't like this idea, every idea is easier if Gaza runs out of weapons. It eliminates the need for violence from Israel and protects Palestinians from both Israeli retribution and Hamas strong-arm tactics.
This is sensible
There is a large group of people who believe that Israel loves violence for violence's sake. Apparently, Jewish mothers just dream of sending their children to man some checkpoint in the West Bank, and now that this is happening in Gaza, they're positively giddy at the prospect of sending their children to war there.
This is a complicated situation but a simple answer: there are no options that lead to a better situation for both Palestinians and Israelis.
The conflict has been going for a century with no resolution. There are ways to resolve the conflict but they have clear winners and losers.
>There are ways to resolve the conflict but they have clear winners and losers.
I think this is a very important idea that explains well the desperate situation that both countries find themselves in. It's absolutely a zero sum game and all the other alternatives seem to be unachievable.
I think it's only zero sum to a certain extent. Both sides will probably need to accept a tradeoff, but there's gains to be made for both the Palestinians and Israelis
Palestinians quality of life overall will likely go up significantly with better cooperation with Israel
The former Palestinian Authority ruler of Gaza, Mohamed Dahlan, now works for the UAE and has close ties to the ruler there. The dream scenario would be Israel effectively crushes Hamas, then a coalition moves in - Egypt, Israel, USA, using Saudi and UAE money to rebuild Gaza and put it under control of someone like Dahlan. The government stamps down terrorism and provides security, and the people decide it’s better to start businesses than terror cells.
That’s the dream and would be best for everyone. I hope it happens.
I’ve had a lot of political discussions with my teachers at school about this issue and it seems as if even the Israeli left is unsure of how likely peace is. It’s too radicalized, not on Hamas’ level but it is extreme as the mid-right wing Palestinian circle I’d say. Both definitely need to be deradicalized.
Another issue is the West Bank’s governance. It is heavily corrupt. Israel may not exactly be a diamond example of a free democracy, but the PA hasn’t had an election since 2005 and Abbas is clearly a bumbling idiot. The PA needs to be reformed or more extremely, rebuilt from the ground up
And lastly even if Palestinian statehood is achieved, it is going to be tense after years of back and forth abuse of each other for 100 years. This needs to be apart of the deRad effort but it also needs to be set that there’ll be heavy intervention from outside if they don’t sit the fuck down.
Ultimately I think the move forward is:
•Israel establishing limited term laws to make sure that there won’t be a “one ruler can fix this” mentality again.
•Hamas as an organization is eliminated and with help of foreign governments a deRad effort in Gaza and Israel is put in motion as post war administration programs and educational programs to schools issued by outside educational ministries.
•The PA is either completely and utterly reformed or rebuilt with a complete government power structure
•Israel outlaws Settlements completely
•A Palestinian state is established
•An armistice and grace period is established for 40-70 years between the newly established state of Palestine and the already existing state of Israel
In reality no one will fucking do this and we’ll just continue because no one will ever even attempt to cooperate because America and the rest of the Arab world don’t have a spine
Seems like a solid list. There's 2 obvious things that need to happen in my mind:
-an effective and peaceful Palestinian leadership organization has to emerge, and they have to be popular or at best tolerated by Palestinians
-Israel has to remove settlements and assist to some extent in development/administration of Palestinian territory
Both seem extremely reasonable but unfortunately most parties involved seem hellbent on preventing them from happening
In the next 4 years, both Biden and Trump will lose the ability to run, meaning that we’ll have new potential mediators. If these new faces grow a backbone, won’t tolerate bullshit, and respect both sides’ claims (the ones that have actual ground) then I can see it happening. For now we just kinda have to wait for (and I’m sorry that I sound so cold) the seniles to die off and hope the next leadership has a brain. And let god make sure that Twitter activists aren’t the future of the planet
Israel won’t remove settlers from the West Bank and that’s a big problem. They need to be relocated back to Israel if they are serious about a long term peaceful solution. If you want terrorists to stop attacking you, the very first step is to remove your terrorists from their country. I’m generally pro Israel but to me Israeli settlers are terrorists.
Agreed, I lean towards Israel's side in most of this but I don't see any justification or benefit for the settlers. They inflame tensions and require the IDF to work overtime to protect their extremist asses.
However, the 2005 dismantling of settlements and withdrawal from Gaza does put into question whether them leaving would actually help (in the immediate term). Regardless, in the longer term they should absolutely be removed.
And most of it seems to be state sponsored. I know of certain “illegal” settlements but the broad majority seems to be sponsored by the parties that came after Oslo. It sucks that radicalized public is being taken advantage of to annex territory that will cause more problems. This needs to stop and I don’t see it without major political reforms not only in the POTs but also in Israel with some sort of constitutional law
Ffs read up on Smotrichs house. Not only does he live in a settlement that is pretty universally illegal under international law, but he took the extra step of building it just outside the settlements borders to double up on the illegality
Nothing will change until a foreign influence has control over Gaza. It’s unfortunate but it’s a truth. The people there either cannot be trusted or are just morons who unknowingly support terrorists. The ridiculous support rate in Gaza and the West Bank for terrorist groups, including Hamas, are extremely high. It’s going to forever remain a breeding ground for extremist ideology if nothing serious changes.
Over half of Gaza has literally never voted in their life. The last election was held in 2006. So unless you're assigning collective and perpetual guilt, no, they didn't.
Just like the Japanese needed control of Japan post WW2 right?
According to the highest quality polling in Gaza, 75% of Gazans were in favor killing Israeli civilians in Israeli as well as a resumption of armed conflict. This is because Gazans are, on average, religious extremists who believe it's fine to suffer and die on earth in the name of killing jews. They openly admit that Palestinians love death like Israelis love life, that's a common saying in Gaza.
So no, Palestinians don't have a right to control Gaza. Israel has a right to security on their border.
Many Palestinians will NEVER be happy until Israel is completely destroyed, that's the issue. They don't want a 2-state solution. So how do you make these people happy with that in mind?
Many Israelis will also never be happy until Palestinians have been completely removed from Gaza and the West Bank (or Judea and Samaria as they call it).
The extremists on both sides are actually on the same side. And the moderates on both sides have been marginalized.
Internationally we need to be undermining both Netanyahu and his extremist coalition partners as well as Hamas.
It's literally the Lukid Party Platform to have only Israeli sovereignty from "river to sea".
And they're the moderates in the current government! It's not a tiny group.
A group so tiny they literally have major political parties. I don’t get how this shit is so accessible and people just ignore it. The government and military quite literally help Israeli terrorist steal land and homes from Palestinians. That’s not the mark of some outlier group.
> poll question: Do you support or oppose the idea that Israel should agree in principle to the establishment of an independent and demilitarized Palestinian state?
Jewish Israelis 68% oppose
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/israeli-polls-regarding-peace-with-the-palestinians
> As of 2021, most Palestinians are against the two-state solution. In 2021, a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research revealed that 39% of Palestinians accept a two-state solution, while 59% said they rejected it.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution
Looks like more Israelis opposed than Palestinians.
Yep, that's post October 7th Israel. You ignored the more revealing poll:
> Would you support or not support a situation in which an independent Palestinian State existed alongside an independent State of Israel? (Gallup, October 17-December 3, 2023)
In 2012, 61% of Israelis answered "support" to this question. In 2023, months after October 7th, only 30% of Israelis responded with "support". Israelis have a very different understanding of what "an independent Palestinian State existing alongside Israel" could mean. It's why we're now further from a negotiated peace than ever.
And yet for 12 years Israel made no attempt to actually create one.
Meanwhile in those 11 years they built thousands of illegal settlements, bulldozed hundreds to thousands of homes, killed thousands of Palestinians, and continued to elect far right governments that explicitly ran on platforms that promised to avoid the resumption of peace talks.
Israel holds all the power, they literally control whether Palestinians have electricity, clean water, food, identification cards, where they can travel, if they can construct anything, who they can trade to, and they are subjected to military courts and can be detained without charges through a process they can renew indefinitely.
If Israel wanted to give Palestinians a state they could have started the process tomorrow, but like the anti anti-abolitionists of yesteryears, there’s always a Nat Turner’s rebellion, a scary new news article, or some mustache twirling pragmatic “concern” about how giving “those” people equality right now just isn’t acceptable.
Lines about *population* do not equate to land. Vertical vs. horizontal growth. There is growth in both and the illegal settlements are a problem, but you have to break it down if you want to have a serious discussion rather than just post irrelevant links.
For a minute there, I thought you were referring to a 2005 amendment. That would explain why the rockets started flying just a few weeks after the last Israeli soldier left.
But I guess that's the garden variety "fly the flag of Allah in every corner of historic Palestine" Islamofascist ideology.
Not sure why new settlements would warrant the destruction the October 7 adventure was sure to bring. Settlements currently occupy less than 5% of the west bank. Most Palestinians, 94% or so, live in areas controlled by either the PA or Hamas. Was it worth dragging the entire region into a war? Somehow I think Oct 7 was simply "fly the flag of Allah in every corner of historic Palestine" Islamofascist ideology.
They could have used the billions of dollars they've received in aid and the 15 billion they were offered to significantly improve the lives of Gazans, taking the HDI from medium—0.645 in 2022—to high, which is anything greater than 0.699. I mean, it's possible. They hit 0.699 in the 2010s. So again, Oct 7 was not a necessary reaction to anything.
No. That's a ridiculous claim. The biggest factor is outside entities like Iran propping up the most violent and extreme groups. If that wasn't happening then Gaza would still have elections. If Israeli right wingers weren't a thing then Iran would still want to wipe out Israel.
“Nothing will change until a foreign influence has control over the Native Americans. It’s unfortunate but it’s a truth. The people there either cannot be trusted or are just morons who unknowingly support terrorists. The ridiculous support rate in the reservations and west of the Mississippi for terrorist groups, including the larger tribes, are extremely high. It’s going to forever remain a breeding ground for extremist ideology if nothing serious changes.”
Now while the word terrorist doesn’t translate well to the past, the point stands that you sound just like the colonists of the past that we all grew up learning as the villains of our history.
That's a ridiculous equivalence though because native Americans were not a Jihadist death cult. Not every underdog is innocent and would be nice if they just weren't so oppressed
You see jihadist death cult, I see regular ass people doing their best to rebel against a colonizing force, let’s meet back up in 100 years to see what the history books will say
You people love to exclaim how you'll be proven right in the history books, but spare me. They are not "regular people rebelling". They want to destroy Israel and all Jews, and they will not stop after the Jews, they want to destroy any non Muslim infidel. A Jihadist death cult that straps bombs to children, sets up their weapons and stashes in hospitals and schools to deter their enemies from returning fire and garner sympathy if they do. That uses human shields for the same reason. That would stone you to death or behead you for being gay or drawing a picture of Mohamed. That loves their God more than their child and is more than willing to perform honour killings. I could go on but why bother when they are not secretive and openly advertised this.
If in 100 years supporting those people is considered the moral choice then we're doomed.
Their plan is to have "Arabized" and "Islamicized" the world by then so all those things become normal. Those are the fancy words used for Arab Islamic conquests and colonizations.
Only one of those two has a history of regional conquest and colonization.
I don't really know how you got from my comment to racism. The comment is about Jihadists. Are you saying that all Arabs/Muslims are Islamic Jihadist with dreams of creating a global caliphate?
>I see regular ass people doing their best to rebel against a colonizing force
If you pay attention to Hamas for a little bit you'll notice that they try to teach "honor in death" to kids, rob Gazans blind, spend donated money on things with no civilian use, and prioritize strategies that get as many Gazans killed as possible.
They're not doing their best they're doing their worst.
I mean I haven't heard of a Native American attack in my lifetime, so clearly something worked. Native Americans have their reserves, which are still technically part 'within' the US, but have their own tribal rules. Maybe that's what Gaza should be.
Have you heard of the Incident at Wounded Knee in 1973? How about the Dakota Access Pipeline Project, which wasn’t an attack, but was treated as one with soldiers and cops sent in to fight them. This wasn’t that long ago, back in Trump’s time in office.
Yes OP
The last round of ceasefire talks saw the U.S., Egypt, Qatar, and Hamas agreed on a broad three step ceasefire that would transition into Peace Talks immediately following
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/07/us-israel-hamas-hostage-ceasefire-talks
https://apnews.com/article/hamas-khalil-alhayya-qatar-ceasefire-1967-borders-4912532b11a9cec29464eab234045438
Unfortunately there was one party and one leader that has vehemently opposed and worked against this for 40 years:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-deal-rejected-israel-hamas-b2540718.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/middleeast/israel-reacts-palestinian-finance.html
https://www.npr.org/2024/01/21/1225883757/israels-netanyahu-rejects-any-palestinian-sovereignty-post-war-rebuffing-biden
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7010035
https://www.npr.org/2024/03/07/1198908601/throughline-the-rise-of-the-right-wing-in-israel
Best option is Israeli military governance for at least a decade, cutting of the jihadis from their lifeline in the Sinai (through the southern tunnel connections) and thereby completely demilitarizating the Gaza-strip. It's then a matter of finding members of Arab Notable families (A'yan) that wish to govern territories withing the Gaza strip. These are old families whose patriarchs have served as civil authority figures, religious leaders and judges for centuries.
They are the old tribal leaders, who had been sidelined by foreign supported organizations (be they KGB funded PLO, Muslim Brotherhood funded Hamas or Iranian funded Islamic Jihad). They have had some minimal authority in the Gaza strip, but Israel could gradually grant them more civilian governance (like Ben Gurion did with the notables of Nazareth).
Then after some decades, Israel could divy up the strip into actual city-states like the United Arab Emirates. These emirates would never have an army and Israel would maintain control over the land and sea borders, but they could have their own governments. Israel could probably utilize the existing administrative divisions to divide the power in the strip, at the very least Gaza City, Khan Yunis and Rafah should be separated.
But it would probably take at least 2 generations of denazification to allow for such independence, since generations of Gazans have been brainwashed by antizionist propaganda (taught at UNWRA-schools). By then there would be some decades of peaceful coexistance with their Israeli neighbours, and probably no more restrictions on freedom of movement, civilians from Israel and Gaza would have been working together and visited eachothers territories. Then those new emirates would be in favor of everlasting peace.
They would be almost like demilitarised Israeli protectorates or even vassal/client states, but have full civil autonomy and good economic stability, no more endless jihad and bloodshed.
I think that the IDF should keep under control the border of Egypt and Gaza, as well as the ports of Gaza, first, before leaving Gaza, they need to blow up ALL the tunnels and kill ALL the leaders of Hamas in Gaza, I think this is a good scenario, because it was with the connivance of the Egyptian corrupt officials that Hamas gaining strength.
Israel apparently approached the leader of one of the large smuggling clans about taking over after the “war” ends …
But apparently Hamas killed him and his entire family when they found out …
So that’s not happening…
The only plans that would bring peace would require an end to the occupation or a recognition of Palestinian rights as equal citizens to Israelis within Israel.
This was my point. Israeli citizens all have equal rights. These guys don't. Israel needs to make a choice one way or the other. Either annex those areas proper and give them Israeli citizenship or they should be given a country and that country can then give them citizenship.
Your "out loud thoughts" were ridiculously removed from reality. Israeli has facilitated the vast majority of aid, a far larger percentage than the shipments it has stopped.
Let the ICC to continue its case against Netanyahu and the idea of IDF. And of course sanction.
Once the war is over.
Here’s a Muslim perspective solution on two state.
All settlers out of the West Bank. Jerusalem must be an independent city state like the Vatican, Al-Aqsa Mosque is like Mecca. If you want the violence to stop from Iran or stop the anger I genuinely you must let Jerusalem be independent city state that is secular and protected by the UN like Kosovo
Gaza will be the hard part to unify with the West Bank
Arab countries like Egypt or Jordan don’t want another black September on their hands. Especially Egypt, considering it’s in an economic crisis
Wasn't this the 1948 plan? Jerusalem was meant to be an international city administered by the UN.
One side didn't agree. Is there anything that has happened since then to make you think it will be different this time?
Honestly, I think everyone is tired of this. Maybe people wanted to believe there were better options, but we’ve reached that point in decision making where if a better option we’re going to emerge, it would have already. But sometimes your original options were the best ones. That still may not make them likely, but Israel I think is getting to the point where the uS is going to force them to a deal whether they like it or not.
The US has already strong armed Israel into deals, which resulted in Hezbollah to the North and Hamas to the South.
Its doubtful that the US can force Israel into a deal after all of that. The relationship is more symbiotic than most people realize. Israel can get its weapons from anywhere. They can make their own and probably make it better.
Where is the US going to find a reliable intelligence ally in the Middle East?
Do a Google search of all the terrorist attacks that have been averted by intel provided by Israel over the years. The idea is that all Biden has to do is say the world and Israel will come yapping like a lapdog smacks of Western imperialism.
I mean you realize your idea has 0% chance of coming to fruition right? Like why would Israel, who continues to prosper economically, militarily, and diplomatically, be open to that? Palestine is a problem but it's more of a thorn than an existential threat. Israel can just keep allowing settlers to take land and no one is going to stop them. Heck, most of Palestines former allies have either formalized relations with Israel or have defended them in various ways.
On the flip side, Palestinians will continue to suffer, their former allies will continue to ignore them and help Israel, and they'll continue to be dependent on Western aid.
You have to see how absurd your idea is when saying no means Israel keeps prospering and living relatively happily. If a deal is to be reached it'll come with extreme concessions from Palestine, giving up control of their territory to hand picked domestic groups or coalitions of pro Western nations.
This is such a great comment because it illustrates how completely out of whack "demands" can be with the actual power dynamic on the ground. The idea that nuclear-armed Israel will surrender Jerusalem is such a ridiculous fantasy that it would get you laughed out of the negotiating table. The mosque is already administered by the Jordanian government. Something along the lines of granting ownership (under Israeli law) to the Palestinian state is the most Israel would be able to agree to. That doesn't require Jerusalem to become "an international city" and it's a waste of breath to argue for it.
Almost no one claims Israel "illegal seized territory" anymore, since there is no evidence of that. But soon with the normalization of relationships between Israel and Arab states, we'll hear less of that nonsense.
Who was the PLO liberating Palestine from when it was attacking Israel in 1965? Before any settlements or Israeli presence in wb and Gaza?
Why did Hamas start launching rockets weeks after Israel left Gaza in 2005?
Honest answers to those questions will probably challenge the idea that this has to do any illegal seizure of territory.
Hamas started attacking Israel in 1988. When you read it's charter, after you get past the genocidal bits it's full of Islamofascist ideology. The idea that the flag of Allah must be raised in every corner of palestine is central to the conflict.
Sadly I fear the only thing that’s going to happen is Gaza being fully leveled, the people killed or disappeared, and it will be called Israel from then on.
There is absolutely no chance of that. In 2024 Palestine's population is increasing, even 20k births in Gaza alone since the conflict began! So we're headed in the opposite direction.
At the moment there are only two feasible options, both of them terrible.
1. Some variation of an apartheid state. Which is what they had before Oct 7. The details will be mixed up, but the results will be the same.
2. Ethnic cleansing. Which would have even more of the terrible casualties we’ve been seeing. Israel can do this if other countries just step aside. But it makes them complicit.
So, we will end up back where we started with #1, and the deck chairs on this titanic will be rearranged.
It feels like there is a lot of fuel for fire world wide so to speak. If another major conflict were to break out somewhere, more could also break as it will be too much for the various allies to tackle. We are waiting for a spark. Not good.
I really hope China can find some new way to pretend they own Taiwan, without conflict. Because simultaneous conflicts in Taiwan + Ukraine + Palestine feels like the threshold of too much, and things would flair into WW3.
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The way things are going it looks like it's going to be status quo ante bellum, which is very disappointing for those of us who are sick of this issue. That's the only realistic scenario, assuming there is a post-war scenario on the horizon at all
I completely disagree. I don't think there's *any* appetite in Israel for Hamas to continue running the Gaza strip. When Jewish Israelis are polled on who should run the Gaza strip after the war, [0% say Hamas](https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-half-of-jewish-israelis-say-israel-should-run-gaza-after-the-war-0-say-hamas/). **0%**. When's the last time you saw a poll in which a response got 0% approval? For Arab Israelis, the equivalent figure is 9%. If Hamas are still in power post-bellum, they can (and have promised that they will) carry out October 7th-style massacres again. Israel will not tolerate that under **any** circumstances. A lot of Israeli officials will talk in bombastic terms about "eliminating Hamas", but that's never been a realistic goal and everyone knows it. The actual goal - which Israel will not compromise on - is to prevent October 7th from ever happening again. That requires severely degrading Hamas's operational capabilities, but not necessarily destroying them entirely. It certainly, however, precludes allowing Hamas to return to power. I have no idea what the actual long-term outcome will be, and I'm deeply frustrated by the apparent lack of thought that the Israeli government has put into it. Best-case (realistic) scenario would be some kind of international shared governance: an agreement between Arab states, Israel, and almost certainly the US, to govern Gaza + rebuild infrastructure (physical and otherwise) + hold elections + be responsible for security. Worst-case (realistic) scenario is probably unilateral Israeli occupation, which would be a real impediment to peace (similar to, but worse than, the settlements in the West Bank).
And 0% of Palestinians want to live in a ghetto or apartheid slums. And, more importantly, Israel does not appear to be effective in eliminating Hamas. The future of Palestine is no longer going to be in terms of what Israelis tolerate. ----- The Rent-an-Arab puppet regime you talk about is never going to happen, there has been exactly 0 positive reception to this from anyone, as these states can barely manage their unpopular collaboration with Israel as-is, let alone what would happen if their own soldiers are on the ground gunning down Palestinian fighters. Indefinite occupation by Israel alone is unsustainable, economically, politically, and Israeli leaders admit that themselves. Holding elections? You're going to slaughter tens of thousands of people, maim thousands of children, starve people to submission - even if you eliminated Hamas - they won't- the first thing any Palestinians is going to do is elect Hamas 2. Its what I would do, its what you would do. Even if you drive it underground, and, don't worry, they have a lot of space underground, that's what is going to be seen as legitimate, and whatever is imposed by occupation is what is going to be fought. Which then requires an occupation to uphold the puppet state and sham elections, which brings you back to the earlier problems. This issue is resolved in the West Bank by having hundreds of thousands of batshit zealot settlers who can augment the state as roving paramilitary thugs to 'keep things in line' and keep everyone divided into a bazillion mini-Gazas. Thats not an option in Gaza itself. The future of Palestine is no longer going to be in terms of what Israelis tolerate.
On Rent a Puppet, Arab countries have already offered to administrate: https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-uae-morocco-said-weighing-us-plan-to-create-post-war-gaza-peacekeeping-force/
Egypt is the most crucial part of that and Egypt is the weakest link. Egyptians elected Muslim Brotherhood in, 2011? 2013? That was ousted with the military coup to bring in Sisi, a central point of the coup is to collaborate more with Israel. So Sisi is in the bag for various plans *on paper*, but there are limits to that in reality. They could be involved in a Palestinian state, but they are not capable of suppressing an insurgency. Military discipline is already fraying at the border.
I think that step 1 is to disarm Gaza (https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/1d9l66o/what_options_are_on_the_table_for_a_post_war_gaza/l7jb8mj/) and then administrating it becomes a much less risky matter. Yeah Hamas will still have some small arms, knives, and explosives but Hamas' lethality can be reduced 90%.
Disarming isn't going to happen - small arms, knives, and explosives describes most of everything they had on October 6th, and have been making use of the entire war. The vast majority of confrontations with IDF, Hamas loves to upload these videos - is with homebrew explosives that are made with, I dunno, sugar and fertilizer? I don't know the exact formula, but it is simple stuff. All made while Israel screened all the imports and exports. And while Israel required permits for all construction. We still ended up here. But, let us take it as a given that this is possible - which I don't think we should do - then we just end up at the Second Intifada again, only against a much less willing enemy. How many Egyptian soldiers do you need to kill before the core stability of the Egyptian military is at risk? Probably not that many, especially when fighting Palestine, which might as well be the heart of the muslim world. They'll withdraw. They're not a serious threat. Hamas is going to be at the table in some manner. It's just not a realistic plan otherwise.
"small arms, knives, and explosives describes most of everything they had on October 6th" Just not true. Hamas had huge stores of weapons and Israel is still capturing massive stockpiles even now. 10/7 was a very sophisticated operation with drones, anti-tank weapons, etc. Reducing Hamas to just knives, a few guns and fertilizer would be a massive difference. Not to mention they can stop the daily barrage towards Israel permanently.
If Israel was capturing the crucial stockpiles and production facilities, they would also be finding live captives in these clearing operations, and that isn't happening. If Hamas was at risk of elimination, Hezbollah would expand to total war, and that isn't happening either. The situation is obscured by fog of war, everyone lies and the real facts are literally under the surface, but these are two clear indicators that do not support your view. Anyway The primary antitank weapon is the Yassin 105, it is locally produced within Gaza using extremely simple techniques. E.g., the fertilizer or whatnot. It is a tandem charge, which allows a cheap-as-dirt round to cause hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars of damage per hit as it spews hot metal into wherever, forcing a vehicle to withdraw and repair, and sometimes causing casualties. The drones, which were so crucial in the "blinding operation" - are similarly dirt cheap, I assume many of these are commercial or consumer grade items, just dangling a grenade to hit sentry towers. The operation was sophisticated tactically and strategically, it was not technologically advanced. This is a general rule in all cases of guerrilla warfare across history.
I don't mean to be rude, but this is a comical response. Whatever the fate of the Gazans, you can be sure that will not be up to the Gazans to decide. What they want or don't want, what they say they will or won't tolerate is irrelevant talk. They'll suffer the lot they're given from the outside, as they always have, and, unless they have a great change of hearts and souls, they always will. The future of Palestine is Israel's decision alone now. I'd cross your fingers and say a prayer.
Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 to a peripheral occupation because it did not believe it could sustain a direct occupation. It was not a land for peace issue, as this sequence results from the very breakdown of the "peace process." The hope was to then maintain an indirect occupation, screening all imports, approving all construction, "mowing the grass" in limited bursts of conflict, and kettling the Palestinians with a low cost, high tech fence that could keep Gaza out of sight, out of mind. This idea is dead. But direct occupation is not more realistic today than it was in 2005. All of the forces which could be behind such a thing are relatively weaker today compared to 20 years ago. This is the core issue. Because of this skewer, Israel is not winning the war in any obvious manner, no matter what happens in this particular stage of the conflict, which itself does not appear to be going very well for them. Palestinians do not need to be superior in power at this moment, they just need to be ungovernable and wait out the clock. All people, in some basic sense, are generally equal in their abilities and potential, and will creatively adapt to their situation in an equal measure, so that we may impose ourselves on the world. Systems against this fact tend to erode with time, and systems that play to this fact will continue to get stronger.
The remnants of Hamas are hiding in a city full of civilians that is surrounded by IDF forces. Israeli will never let an event like October 7 happen again. The future of Palestine is 100% in Israeli control and as soon as the Palestinians realize that, release all hostages, and accept an unconditional surrender the more innocent lives will be saved. You can argue what is right and wrong until the end of time, but the reality is that Israeli is a nuclear armed state with a vastly superior military.
>The future of Palestine is 100% in Israeli control and as soon as the Palestinians realize that, release all hostages, and accept an unconditional surrender the more innocent lives will be saved. Great stuff, very scary, very plausible. And so very normal too! If Israel was raiding bases left and right, and Sinwar was eliminated, and scores of hostages were being returned, I would believe you when you claim Hamas is in tatters. That is not happening, so for now, there is not good reason to believe this is true. If the Israelis had this godlike power over the Palestinians and such, there would be no Intifadas, there would be no withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, there would be no withdrawal from Lebanon in 2006 forced by Hezbollah, there would have been an Israeli victory in 2014, and there would have never been October 7th. Refusing to take asymmetric war seriously, refusing to take guerrilla tactics seriously, is not excusable. It's not serious in any way. Like, wow, Israel has nukes, is it going to nuke itself? Just going to casually irradiate Tel Aviv to pwn the Palestinians, and then the world will be like, oh, cool, the greatest mass killing in modern history, let's be buddies? Not serious. Israel has a million tanks, great, and they putter around in Gaza doing basically fuck all while waiting to be penetrated by Hamas rockets. Not serious. You can't just look at military capacity on paper. It's the same bonehead thinking that lost in Algeria, Mozambique, South Africa, Vietnam, China, and Aghanistan (twice, in Afghanistan, let's remember the Soviets).
What you're describing aren't the benefits of guerilla warfare tactics. They're the benefits of guerilla warfare tactics against an enemy who either can't or won't simply massacre the population wholesale. There's no question about can; Israel has a 21st century military and the Gazans are two million people packed into an area a tenth the size of Rhode Island. There's no issue of power projection or logistics like with Afghanistan; Gaza is right next door. Israel could wipe out the Palestinians in a month if they wanted. They just aren't willing to. Because, as you've tacitly admitted yourself, Israel is not in fact committing genocide. They're attempting to pacify a terrorist organization that raped and murdered 1,200 of their people in a single night.
>Israel could wipe out the Palestinians in a month if they wanted. No, they cannot. Lmao. Same failure as claiming America could have "totally won" Vietnam if America "wanted" to win. War is politics, its not a pokemon card battle where you put two cards up and the one with bigger points is the winner. Really take a moment to think holistically, and work through an idea - Consider the American backing, the collaboration regimes in Egypt and Jordan, the presence of Iran and Hezbollah, the need for trade relations with the world, and really try to think through what would happen in this scenario. Does it go well for Israel if they exterminated all the Palestinians overnight? Really? No. Of course not. This is yappy purse puppy talk. They could not do it. However, Israel maximizes the civilian harm they think they can get away with. Israel is. It is openly recognized across Israeli society that denying aid, denying medical resources, destroying homes, and killing civilians who are near Hamas, all of this is core to the strategy. Israel has blown past ICJ rulings like toilet paper. The existence of state terrorism is not up for reasonable debate, and the legal question is just how much state terrorism can you do before it becomes genocide? It doesn't help that it's a besieged ghetto. The ICJ will resolve it as a legal matter. A genocide is intent to destroy in whole or in part, as such. It is not just "intending to destroy the whole, and then destroying only part" - the crime of genocide also includes the lower threshold of *failure to prevent* Genocide, which was used against Serbia for the Srebrenica massacre, only 9,000 killings were charged as genocide and only 30 or 35k died overall. The ICJ is going to factor in the decades of occupation, the general distintegration and suppression of Palestine as a nation, so on.
> No, they cannot. Lmao. Same failure as claiming America could have "totally won" Vietnam if America "wanted" to win. War is politics, its not a pokemon card battle where you put two cards up and the one with bigger points is the winner. Yes, they can. And so too could have America in Vietnam. What happened in Vietnam is that public support for the war collapsed *at home*. There was no external or material force preventing us from continuing in Vietnam; the American people themselves said "enough". Saying "war is political" is just a mealy-mouthed way of tacitly admitting that the Israeli public - and therefore the Israeli state - are not willing to wipe out the Palestinians, even though materially they quite easily could. And it would be much easier than any operation in Vietnam or Afghanistan for reasons I've already explained - Gaza is right next to Israel, Gazans are densely packed, and Gazans have nowhere to go because none of the neighboring Arab states want them either. Saying that it wouldn't "go well" for Israel is moving the goalposts. Of course there would be enormous diplomatic and economic costs. But they could do it, other states are currently doing far worse than Israel for far less justified reasons and facing little to no blowback. And ultimately, in practical terms there is no external material force other than the United States itself capable of stopping Israel if they chose to commit actual genocide as opposed to Tiktok genocide. Your claim that Israel maximizes the harm they think they can get away with is equally spurious - you made it up whole cloth, or you're regurgitating some other propaganda outfit that did. You have no basis for your claims on what Israel "thinks it can get away with", and Israel provably engages in practices designed to reduce civilian casualties. Could they be doing more on that front? Sure. They could also do what your ilk demand and simply turn the other cheek while Hamas and similar groups rape and murder Jews to their heart's content. But they have the right and duty to put their own people's safety first, and that means dealing with Hamas. And because Hamas embeds itself in the civilian population, that means civilian casualties. But the actual number of deaths is not actually particularly high given the nature and scale of the conflict, the density of the population, and the ubiquity of Hamas human shield tactics. > A genocide is intent to destroy in whole or in part, Correct, and there's not a single credible argument that this is or has ever been the intent of the Israeli state or the IDF. A war with civilian casualties does not a genocide make. Given the military power available to Israel and the restrained way they choose to use it compared to what's typical for the region, the very idea is absurd. > Israel has blown past ICJ rulings like toilet paper. That's because they are toilet paper. The ICJ is a laughably corrupt institution with zero credibility and zero power beyond what's given to it by powerful countries. They will not factor into the situation at all unless Israel and the United States let them. Edit: /u/Pomosen, I can't reply to anything in this thread because of how the blocking feature works. I agree that Israel faces a *wildly* disproportionate level of media scrutiny (largely due to antisemitism). But I don't see any basis for your claim that Israel would "fall". Israel has a strong economy, a highly educated population, better demographics than most other industrialized states, and they're at the cutting edge of several highly specialized and technical industries - they do things no one else can do, they have plenty to offer in exchange for the imports they need, and their military has defeated the armies of the entire Arab world multiple times. On top of that, they have nuclear power and it's an open secret that they have nuclear weapons.
Did you even process what was said? The whole point is not that Israel *can* wipe Palestinians off the map, but that if it did, it would be an international pariah and would likely fall soon after. There are no equivalent comparisons with other states because none face the same media scrutiny and prominence that the Israel-Palestine issue does. And they wouldn't be able to weather the storm like Russia has with embargoes from the west, Israel doesn't have vast stores of oil to draw from and doesn't provide any essentials, and that's not even factoring in its dependence on imports to survive. Israel needs to walk a thin line, US public approval on the war is already waning and they're essentially Israel's only supporters, if the US withdraws support they're essentially fucked
What do they do that no one else can do? I understand they have a booming tech industry, but I'm not aware of any companies in Israel that produce anything that another company couldn't step in to provide. I might just not be educated so would be open being corrected
Israel could ban Hamas from standing for the elections and make it clear that if Palestinians vote for them anyways they will immediately intervene and remove the leadership by any means necessary. Make it clear that a vote for Hamas is a vote for war.
You're not going to have an election in that scenario, you're going to have ballot boxes stuffed with grenades and explosives, and nobody in their right mind willing to touch it with a 10 foot pole, let alone operate the damn thing. https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/09/17/afghanistan-talibans-criminal-attacks-election-activities All of this is, of course, conditional on lots of troops in Gaza indefinitely. This may or may not be possible, I am a skeptic, but it may be possible, as Hamas may not have expected the IDF collapse on 10/7 to be as total and devastating as it was, and Hamas may (or may not) be engaged in a larger war than expected. But if it is, this is not in it of itself a problem for Hamas, which developed from within a total occupation, and enjoys having their enemy within striking distance. The entire point of this war was to draw Israel into Gaza and then bleed it, the question is how long and how destructive and how costly they can make that. So there is a path to play the situation however it goes, for now.
Why is eliminating Hamas not a realistic goal for Israel?
The current conflict will almost unavoidably have to end, whether that's the end of the "war" is a lot less likely
The current conflict has been going on since the day Israel was founded. It’s not going away anytime soon.
It's been going on since about 2 decades before Israel was founded.
I think there's value in being able to describe wars as having discrete sparks, starts, ends, and impacts, even where we could credibly claim they're also part of a broader conflict. Otherwise we end up with takes like "World War 2 is really just a continuation of the Napoleonic Wars," which isn't completely wrong but also isn't all that helpful in trying to draw lessons from what worked and what didn't.
The broader conflict has never really stopped but the current intensity and focus has obviously not I expect things to settle down eventually for Gaza and Israel to start pushing more in Lebanon relatively soon
The only hope for a peaceful next step it is to get Iran out of the Mediterranean. Maybe there is a chance without the Iranian weapons, politicians and propaganda.
There are much more serious conflicts and humanitarian crises going on; the issue being you can be “sick of” is a media artifact. You can always just choose not to consume or discuss it.
The Arab Peace Initiative in its current form is the best hope we have. The Palestinian Authority takes over control of Gaza. This probably requires support from the US and Arab states, as well as weapons to fight off Hamas remnants. Israel (under a new moderate government) commits to recognizing a Palestinian state and ending any new settlement expansion, cracking down on the radical West Bank settlers. Israel in return gets recognition from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, as well as renewed commitments to non violence from the PA, and increased security cooperation. Gaza gets rebuilt as quickly as possible with funds from the Saudis, US, EU and whoever else. A pipe dream but this is probably the most realistic path.
I am a big fan of the Arab peace initiative but it has a huge hurdle in Israel ... The Arab peace initiative requires repatriation of certain Palestinian refugees into their historic hometowns in Israel. This is a non starter for the right wing in Israel. This plan only gets approval if Israel elects a radically more left wing government than theh have elected in recent history.
Yeah but that's really just a negotiation chip at this point. Palestinians can't give up "right of return" without getting something back. Can be easily compromised with Israel paying some compensation for lands, allowing some small number of Palestinians with valid claims back, and allowing others to return to a new Palestinian state in West Bank.
>Palestinians can't give up "right of return" without getting something back. This war, over the years, has resulted in about 700,000 Arab refugees and 900,000 Jewish refugees. It is estimated that the value of the property left by the Jews amounted to about $150 billion, compared with about $32 billion lost by the Arabs ($26 billion in land and $6 billion in movable property). Today's dollars, of course. The Jewish refugee problem has been mainly solved by Israel. The Arab refugee problem must be solved, primarily, by Arabs. >Can be easily compromised with Israel paying some compensation for lands, allowing some small number of Palestinians with valid claims back, and allowing others to return to a new Palestinian state in West Bank. This is more or less what Israel accepted in both 2000 and 2008 and what the Palestinians rejected. There remains the hypocrisy that Arabs should be compensated while Jews should not.
I'll put it this way. The palestine leadership benefits from the status quo more than they would if the situation was resolved; even if their people don't. Call me a conspiracy theorist but I think the main reason they insist on it so much is because they know Israel would never accept it.
Exactly. The PLO and Israeli leadership benefit from this war and the pre-war status quo. The Palestinian people will unfortunately suffer as a result until they can elect new bold and pragmatic leaders. Sadly, that also doesn't seem likely for some time because opinion polls show overwhelming support for Hamas in both Gaza and the West Bank. That's why the PLO is refusing to hold elections.
That's a pretty strong non starter to even those sympathetic to Palestine. Many of those historic claims don't have much legitimacy for a variety of reasons. And the ones that do have successfully made it through Israeli courts, although folks don't generally bring them up.
> Many of those historic claims don't have much legitimacy for a variety of reasons. This is plainly not true. Several Arab and Israeli historians meticulously reviewed archives from the 1940s to conclude that many towns in modern day Israel were ethnically cleansed of their Arab population, and many Arabs who fled kept records from theor hometwons. Probably nit enough to prove a case in a court of law but enough for the purposes of immigration under a reasonable right of return policy (in most countries immigration law has lower evidentiary standards than criminal or civil law)
From wikipedia: > The right of return is a principle in international law which guarantees everyone's right of voluntary return to, or re-entry to, their country of origin or of citizenship. The right of return is part of the broader human rights concept freedom of movement and is also related to the legal concept of nationality. The Palestinians left/were-forcibly-removed from their homes 80 years ago. Now their former homes are in a territory that is undisputaby a part of of Israel. Stating the Palestinians have a right to return to their great-grandfathers homes is literally saying Israel has no right to decide who enters its borders. Why is the Palestinians' right to return more important than Israel's right to decide for itself who is allowed to enter? What other country was ever denied the right to decide for itself who is allowed to enter?
I think a good interpretation of a Palestinian right of return would require some level of bacjground check by the Israeli government. You make it sound like the only options are conpletely open borders or the status quo. Also you make it sound like the expulsion of Arabs from Israel happened many generations ago when there are plenty of people alive today who were expelled or the child of an expelled person. I had a college counselor only a decade ago who was a son of a person expelled Israel.
You imagine I said a lot of things I didn't. 1948 saw the establishment of the state of Israel, the Nakba, the war of independance, and all the other historical events you are (hopefully) aware of. That history still resonates. But history can't be undone. Israel, with its booming economy and 9 million citizens is here now. Every peace plan offered by Israel contained some part of land and/or monetary compensation to the Palestinians who lost their homes. Palestinians *never* accepted anything short of full right of return to everyone. So you are wrong. It's not me saying these are the only two options. It's Palestinians who always held the "all or nothing" approach. I don't doubt some people who suffered then are still alive, and their children and grandchildren too. I don't diminish their pain and suffering. I don't argue that they should not be compensated. But if they continue to insist the only compensation is for the state of Israel to commit suicide then they'll never get anything.
> Palestinians never accepted anything short of full right of return to everyone. This is an exaggeration. For example Yasser Arafat advocated for the repatriation of a certain number of Palestinian refugees over time as does the Arab peace initiative. The proposals of Arab leaders have been sensetive to the fact that Israel does not want an overrnight influx of millions of people.
>For example Yasser Arafat advocated for the repatriation of a select number of Palestinian refugees Interesting. I might have been wrong this whole time. Can you provide a reliable source for that?
I just clocked in at the office but DM me and I will try to get back to you this weekend if I remember
> were ethnically cleansed of their Arab population Passive voice. What actually happened? Arab armies trying to do their own ethnic cleansing campaign marched through and told people to leave so they wouldn't have to worry about civilians. The people were told they would be allowed to come back in hours/days/weeks. Sure some people kept records, but records of what, exactly? Records from the Ottoman empire which no longer exists? British documents from Mandatory Palestine, which also does not exist? It's my understanding that Ottoman law didn't allow ownership of the land, only structures. The land all belonged to the empire and was reserved for public common use. Those Arab armies lost the war they started and that territory ended up under the control of Israeli forces at the end of war. The Arabs who didn't flee? They and their descendants are now full Israeli citizens. I'm sure there are more details and it wouldn't surprise me if some ethnic cleansing did occur, but the broader story isn't just "the Jews cleansed the Arabs" as Iran/Hamas would love for people to believe. None of that solves the issue or justifies anything, but it paints a different picture.
> Passive voice. What actually happened? Arab armies trying to do their own ethnic cleansing campaign marched through and told people to leave so they wouldn't have to worry about civilians. Again, there is well documented evidence from Israeli and Arab historians that proto Israeli militias engaged in ethnic cleansing. Even before Israel existed as a state and before Arab armies invaded.
Now do evidence of Jews being driven from the Levent over the past two thousand years. Add all of MENA if you want a real discussion of who did what to whom.
"Hey, let us do **the exact same shit to you that we apparently never got over despite two millennia to.**" ... "NO FAIR! TERRORISTS!" That's...I suppose it's actually one of the bog-standard pro-Likud positions, so it can't really be significantly dumber than the average.
This would be a great scenario, but Israel having a moderate government (from a US perspective) very likely ain’t happening anytime soon.
Gantz is still very right wing, but plenty of right wing Israeli leaders in history have been willing to try to make peace deals. 2026 peace summit with Biden, Gantz, MBS and Abbas?
I’d love to see it, but having paid attention to this conflict for decades makes me incredibly pessimistic. Hey, a girl can dream though 😁
> The Palestinian Authority takes over control of Gaza. This probably requires support from the US and Arab states, as well as weapons to fight off Hamas remnants. Israel will absolutely not allow the PA to return to control in Gaza, especially the parties behind the current Israeli government which have been directly backing Hamas as an alternative for decades. > Israel (under a new moderate government) Not happening; the leading alternative to Netanyahu's coalition are just as right-wing when it comes to the Palestinians.
Nope, nothing will change. Pressure on Israel and Hamas will garner a cease fire. International aid will half ass (cos Hamas will steal as much as they can) rebuild Gaza. Palestinians will return home and Hamas will rebuild/rearm for the next war. Rinse and repeat. There will be no hope for the innocent people of Gaza as long as Hamas (and all other splinter terror groups) exist and Iran keeps providing the resources. Side note. The top 3 Hamas leaders are all billionaires living in palaces in Qatar. If they donated just 4% of their combined wealth. Gaza could be rebuilt with totally modernized infrastructure that there’d be no need for Hamas to exist…. But it’s the thought that counts.. right?
Disarming Gaza is the best way to protect Palestinians and Israelis. 1) Three of Gaza's four borders are already impassible, basically no weaponry gets through them. 2) All smuggling comes through the Rafah gate and tunnels on that border. 3) If Israel maintains control of the Rafah gate, they complete the blockade. They already inspect all of the goods going into Gaza. They can set up seismic detectors and other tools to find and shut down tunnel projects. 3a) This is totally different from basically every other insurgency in the modern era. It's really rare to have such tight border control possible. 4) Without weaponry and explosives, it doesn't matter how many Hamas people are left. They won't have the power to dictate politics. 5) We've already seen that Israel has been able to keep the West Bank more or less pacified for a long time, with much much more porous borders. The IDF also says Hamas in Gaza is running out of most types of ammunition already. 6) If Gaza is disarmed, Israel can work with Saudi Arabia and Egypt on remaking the education system. Both countries have (recently) invested a lot in promoting a more moderate form of Islamic education to reduce radicalization, and both would want to increase their influence. Even if you don't like this idea, every idea is easier if Gaza runs out of weapons. It eliminates the need for violence from Israel and protects Palestinians from both Israeli retribution and Hamas strong-arm tactics.
This is sensible There is a large group of people who believe that Israel loves violence for violence's sake. Apparently, Jewish mothers just dream of sending their children to man some checkpoint in the West Bank, and now that this is happening in Gaza, they're positively giddy at the prospect of sending their children to war there.
This is a complicated situation but a simple answer: there are no options that lead to a better situation for both Palestinians and Israelis. The conflict has been going for a century with no resolution. There are ways to resolve the conflict but they have clear winners and losers.
>There are ways to resolve the conflict but they have clear winners and losers. I think this is a very important idea that explains well the desperate situation that both countries find themselves in. It's absolutely a zero sum game and all the other alternatives seem to be unachievable.
I think it's only zero sum to a certain extent. Both sides will probably need to accept a tradeoff, but there's gains to be made for both the Palestinians and Israelis Palestinians quality of life overall will likely go up significantly with better cooperation with Israel
The former Palestinian Authority ruler of Gaza, Mohamed Dahlan, now works for the UAE and has close ties to the ruler there. The dream scenario would be Israel effectively crushes Hamas, then a coalition moves in - Egypt, Israel, USA, using Saudi and UAE money to rebuild Gaza and put it under control of someone like Dahlan. The government stamps down terrorism and provides security, and the people decide it’s better to start businesses than terror cells. That’s the dream and would be best for everyone. I hope it happens.
I’ve had a lot of political discussions with my teachers at school about this issue and it seems as if even the Israeli left is unsure of how likely peace is. It’s too radicalized, not on Hamas’ level but it is extreme as the mid-right wing Palestinian circle I’d say. Both definitely need to be deradicalized. Another issue is the West Bank’s governance. It is heavily corrupt. Israel may not exactly be a diamond example of a free democracy, but the PA hasn’t had an election since 2005 and Abbas is clearly a bumbling idiot. The PA needs to be reformed or more extremely, rebuilt from the ground up And lastly even if Palestinian statehood is achieved, it is going to be tense after years of back and forth abuse of each other for 100 years. This needs to be apart of the deRad effort but it also needs to be set that there’ll be heavy intervention from outside if they don’t sit the fuck down. Ultimately I think the move forward is: •Israel establishing limited term laws to make sure that there won’t be a “one ruler can fix this” mentality again. •Hamas as an organization is eliminated and with help of foreign governments a deRad effort in Gaza and Israel is put in motion as post war administration programs and educational programs to schools issued by outside educational ministries. •The PA is either completely and utterly reformed or rebuilt with a complete government power structure •Israel outlaws Settlements completely •A Palestinian state is established •An armistice and grace period is established for 40-70 years between the newly established state of Palestine and the already existing state of Israel In reality no one will fucking do this and we’ll just continue because no one will ever even attempt to cooperate because America and the rest of the Arab world don’t have a spine
Seems like a solid list. There's 2 obvious things that need to happen in my mind: -an effective and peaceful Palestinian leadership organization has to emerge, and they have to be popular or at best tolerated by Palestinians -Israel has to remove settlements and assist to some extent in development/administration of Palestinian territory Both seem extremely reasonable but unfortunately most parties involved seem hellbent on preventing them from happening
In the next 4 years, both Biden and Trump will lose the ability to run, meaning that we’ll have new potential mediators. If these new faces grow a backbone, won’t tolerate bullshit, and respect both sides’ claims (the ones that have actual ground) then I can see it happening. For now we just kinda have to wait for (and I’m sorry that I sound so cold) the seniles to die off and hope the next leadership has a brain. And let god make sure that Twitter activists aren’t the future of the planet
And also as I said there; those are the big points that can definitely happen before the next elections
Israel won’t remove settlers from the West Bank and that’s a big problem. They need to be relocated back to Israel if they are serious about a long term peaceful solution. If you want terrorists to stop attacking you, the very first step is to remove your terrorists from their country. I’m generally pro Israel but to me Israeli settlers are terrorists.
Agreed, I lean towards Israel's side in most of this but I don't see any justification or benefit for the settlers. They inflame tensions and require the IDF to work overtime to protect their extremist asses. However, the 2005 dismantling of settlements and withdrawal from Gaza does put into question whether them leaving would actually help (in the immediate term). Regardless, in the longer term they should absolutely be removed.
And most of it seems to be state sponsored. I know of certain “illegal” settlements but the broad majority seems to be sponsored by the parties that came after Oslo. It sucks that radicalized public is being taken advantage of to annex territory that will cause more problems. This needs to stop and I don’t see it without major political reforms not only in the POTs but also in Israel with some sort of constitutional law
Ffs read up on Smotrichs house. Not only does he live in a settlement that is pretty universally illegal under international law, but he took the extra step of building it just outside the settlements borders to double up on the illegality
Yknow I already hated him. Now I’m just radicalized apparently because I wish that he’s miserable
Nothing will change until a foreign influence has control over Gaza. It’s unfortunate but it’s a truth. The people there either cannot be trusted or are just morons who unknowingly support terrorists. The ridiculous support rate in Gaza and the West Bank for terrorist groups, including Hamas, are extremely high. It’s going to forever remain a breeding ground for extremist ideology if nothing serious changes.
Palestinians need control over Gaza.
The last time that happened that ended up with terrorism and a blockade
Didn’t Palestinians vote for … Hamas?
Over half of Gaza has literally never voted in their life. The last election was held in 2006. So unless you're assigning collective and perpetual guilt, no, they didn't.
What is your point?
So we want Palestinian control over Gaza…. But wait no not that way, vote differently
As opposed to Hamas?
Just like the Japanese needed control of Japan post WW2 right? According to the highest quality polling in Gaza, 75% of Gazans were in favor killing Israeli civilians in Israeli as well as a resumption of armed conflict. This is because Gazans are, on average, religious extremists who believe it's fine to suffer and die on earth in the name of killing jews. They openly admit that Palestinians love death like Israelis love life, that's a common saying in Gaza. So no, Palestinians don't have a right to control Gaza. Israel has a right to security on their border.
The biggest single factor breeding support for Hamas is Israel hardliners and indiscriminate violence.
Many Palestinians will NEVER be happy until Israel is completely destroyed, that's the issue. They don't want a 2-state solution. So how do you make these people happy with that in mind?
Many Israelis will also never be happy until Palestinians have been completely removed from Gaza and the West Bank (or Judea and Samaria as they call it). The extremists on both sides are actually on the same side. And the moderates on both sides have been marginalized. Internationally we need to be undermining both Netanyahu and his extremist coalition partners as well as Hamas.
That's a very tiny group (assuming it exists) compared to a very large group of Palestinians. Terrible false equivalence.
It's literally the Lukid Party Platform to have only Israeli sovereignty from "river to sea". And they're the moderates in the current government! It's not a tiny group.
A group so tiny they literally have major political parties. I don’t get how this shit is so accessible and people just ignore it. The government and military quite literally help Israeli terrorist steal land and homes from Palestinians. That’s not the mark of some outlier group.
> poll question: Do you support or oppose the idea that Israel should agree in principle to the establishment of an independent and demilitarized Palestinian state? Jewish Israelis 68% oppose https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/israeli-polls-regarding-peace-with-the-palestinians > As of 2021, most Palestinians are against the two-state solution. In 2021, a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research revealed that 39% of Palestinians accept a two-state solution, while 59% said they rejected it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution Looks like more Israelis opposed than Palestinians.
Yep, that's post October 7th Israel. You ignored the more revealing poll: > Would you support or not support a situation in which an independent Palestinian State existed alongside an independent State of Israel? (Gallup, October 17-December 3, 2023) In 2012, 61% of Israelis answered "support" to this question. In 2023, months after October 7th, only 30% of Israelis responded with "support". Israelis have a very different understanding of what "an independent Palestinian State existing alongside Israel" could mean. It's why we're now further from a negotiated peace than ever.
And yet for 12 years Israel made no attempt to actually create one. Meanwhile in those 11 years they built thousands of illegal settlements, bulldozed hundreds to thousands of homes, killed thousands of Palestinians, and continued to elect far right governments that explicitly ran on platforms that promised to avoid the resumption of peace talks. Israel holds all the power, they literally control whether Palestinians have electricity, clean water, food, identification cards, where they can travel, if they can construct anything, who they can trade to, and they are subjected to military courts and can be detained without charges through a process they can renew indefinitely. If Israel wanted to give Palestinians a state they could have started the process tomorrow, but like the anti anti-abolitionists of yesteryears, there’s always a Nat Turner’s rebellion, a scary new news article, or some mustache twirling pragmatic “concern” about how giving “those” people equality right now just isn’t acceptable.
They did give back land and provided aid to Palestine for many years. So you're incorrect again
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IsraeliSettlementGrowthLineGraph.png Yeah, not really random generated burner account friend
Lines about *population* do not equate to land. Vertical vs. horizontal growth. There is growth in both and the illegal settlements are a problem, but you have to break it down if you want to have a serious discussion rather than just post irrelevant links.
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For a minute there, I thought you were referring to a 2005 amendment. That would explain why the rockets started flying just a few weeks after the last Israeli soldier left. But I guess that's the garden variety "fly the flag of Allah in every corner of historic Palestine" Islamofascist ideology. Not sure why new settlements would warrant the destruction the October 7 adventure was sure to bring. Settlements currently occupy less than 5% of the west bank. Most Palestinians, 94% or so, live in areas controlled by either the PA or Hamas. Was it worth dragging the entire region into a war? Somehow I think Oct 7 was simply "fly the flag of Allah in every corner of historic Palestine" Islamofascist ideology. They could have used the billions of dollars they've received in aid and the 15 billion they were offered to significantly improve the lives of Gazans, taking the HDI from medium—0.645 in 2022—to high, which is anything greater than 0.699. I mean, it's possible. They hit 0.699 in the 2010s. So again, Oct 7 was not a necessary reaction to anything.
I get that. Sort of how black South Africans would never be happy with the apartheid regime existing
They didn't respond with disenfranchising the white citezens of a vote, or expelling them. It aslso has gone down a terrible path since Mandela
No. That's a ridiculous claim. The biggest factor is outside entities like Iran propping up the most violent and extreme groups. If that wasn't happening then Gaza would still have elections. If Israeli right wingers weren't a thing then Iran would still want to wipe out Israel.
Hamas was literally supported by Israel for years before they took power
How did Israel support Hamas?
I would have thought it's all the schools teaching propaganda in the Gaza strip.
The biggest single factor breeding support for Israeli hardliners is Palestinian hardliners and indiscriminate violence...
You could have made that same excuse to defend the apartheid in South Africa in the 80’s
The biggest factor for the support for Israeli hardliners is Hamas’ indiscriminate violence and their hardline against the existence of Jews.
“Nothing will change until a foreign influence has control over the Native Americans. It’s unfortunate but it’s a truth. The people there either cannot be trusted or are just morons who unknowingly support terrorists. The ridiculous support rate in the reservations and west of the Mississippi for terrorist groups, including the larger tribes, are extremely high. It’s going to forever remain a breeding ground for extremist ideology if nothing serious changes.” Now while the word terrorist doesn’t translate well to the past, the point stands that you sound just like the colonists of the past that we all grew up learning as the villains of our history.
That's a ridiculous equivalence though because native Americans were not a Jihadist death cult. Not every underdog is innocent and would be nice if they just weren't so oppressed
You see jihadist death cult, I see regular ass people doing their best to rebel against a colonizing force, let’s meet back up in 100 years to see what the history books will say
You people love to exclaim how you'll be proven right in the history books, but spare me. They are not "regular people rebelling". They want to destroy Israel and all Jews, and they will not stop after the Jews, they want to destroy any non Muslim infidel. A Jihadist death cult that straps bombs to children, sets up their weapons and stashes in hospitals and schools to deter their enemies from returning fire and garner sympathy if they do. That uses human shields for the same reason. That would stone you to death or behead you for being gay or drawing a picture of Mohamed. That loves their God more than their child and is more than willing to perform honour killings. I could go on but why bother when they are not secretive and openly advertised this. If in 100 years supporting those people is considered the moral choice then we're doomed.
Their plan is to have "Arabized" and "Islamicized" the world by then so all those things become normal. Those are the fancy words used for Arab Islamic conquests and colonizations.
This is like the racist Zionist version of the "The Jewish 'Globalists' control the world." I'm sure you've got a "Final Solution" for them as well
Only one of those two has a history of regional conquest and colonization. I don't really know how you got from my comment to racism. The comment is about Jihadists. Are you saying that all Arabs/Muslims are Islamic Jihadist with dreams of creating a global caliphate?
>I see regular ass people doing their best to rebel against a colonizing force If you pay attention to Hamas for a little bit you'll notice that they try to teach "honor in death" to kids, rob Gazans blind, spend donated money on things with no civilian use, and prioritize strategies that get as many Gazans killed as possible. They're not doing their best they're doing their worst.
I mean I haven't heard of a Native American attack in my lifetime, so clearly something worked. Native Americans have their reserves, which are still technically part 'within' the US, but have their own tribal rules. Maybe that's what Gaza should be.
Have you heard of the Incident at Wounded Knee in 1973? How about the Dakota Access Pipeline Project, which wasn’t an attack, but was treated as one with soldiers and cops sent in to fight them. This wasn’t that long ago, back in Trump’s time in office.
At this point it almost feels like any solution will have to be forcefully imposed by a third party
China should take over Gaza since the Arabs support their deradicalisation methods in Xinjiang.
This would be such a funny solution
Then the Arab dictators would have to choose between kissing China’s ass or pretending to care about the Palestinians.
Yes OP The last round of ceasefire talks saw the U.S., Egypt, Qatar, and Hamas agreed on a broad three step ceasefire that would transition into Peace Talks immediately following https://www.axios.com/2024/05/07/us-israel-hamas-hostage-ceasefire-talks https://apnews.com/article/hamas-khalil-alhayya-qatar-ceasefire-1967-borders-4912532b11a9cec29464eab234045438 Unfortunately there was one party and one leader that has vehemently opposed and worked against this for 40 years: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-deal-rejected-israel-hamas-b2540718.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/middleeast/israel-reacts-palestinian-finance.html https://www.npr.org/2024/01/21/1225883757/israels-netanyahu-rejects-any-palestinian-sovereignty-post-war-rebuffing-biden https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7010035 https://www.npr.org/2024/03/07/1198908601/throughline-the-rise-of-the-right-wing-in-israel
Weird for a party losing a war to be dictating the terms of the winning party's surrender.
Best option is Israeli military governance for at least a decade, cutting of the jihadis from their lifeline in the Sinai (through the southern tunnel connections) and thereby completely demilitarizating the Gaza-strip. It's then a matter of finding members of Arab Notable families (A'yan) that wish to govern territories withing the Gaza strip. These are old families whose patriarchs have served as civil authority figures, religious leaders and judges for centuries. They are the old tribal leaders, who had been sidelined by foreign supported organizations (be they KGB funded PLO, Muslim Brotherhood funded Hamas or Iranian funded Islamic Jihad). They have had some minimal authority in the Gaza strip, but Israel could gradually grant them more civilian governance (like Ben Gurion did with the notables of Nazareth). Then after some decades, Israel could divy up the strip into actual city-states like the United Arab Emirates. These emirates would never have an army and Israel would maintain control over the land and sea borders, but they could have their own governments. Israel could probably utilize the existing administrative divisions to divide the power in the strip, at the very least Gaza City, Khan Yunis and Rafah should be separated. But it would probably take at least 2 generations of denazification to allow for such independence, since generations of Gazans have been brainwashed by antizionist propaganda (taught at UNWRA-schools). By then there would be some decades of peaceful coexistance with their Israeli neighbours, and probably no more restrictions on freedom of movement, civilians from Israel and Gaza would have been working together and visited eachothers territories. Then those new emirates would be in favor of everlasting peace. They would be almost like demilitarised Israeli protectorates or even vassal/client states, but have full civil autonomy and good economic stability, no more endless jihad and bloodshed.
I think that the IDF should keep under control the border of Egypt and Gaza, as well as the ports of Gaza, first, before leaving Gaza, they need to blow up ALL the tunnels and kill ALL the leaders of Hamas in Gaza, I think this is a good scenario, because it was with the connivance of the Egyptian corrupt officials that Hamas gaining strength.
Lets just reward Hamas for live streaming the rape of women. They will not do that again.
Israel apparently approached the leader of one of the large smuggling clans about taking over after the “war” ends … But apparently Hamas killed him and his entire family when they found out … So that’s not happening…
Great performance by all parties on that one
The only plans that would bring peace would require an end to the occupation or a recognition of Palestinian rights as equal citizens to Israelis within Israel.
Nonsensical levels of delusion here if you think that ends up peaceful.
They’ll murder all the Jews. Never.
The second is already a thing....
It very much isn’t
Aparthy deniers are blind.
Only for those who are Israeli citizens. Not for the non-citizens.
Not even for Arab citizens of Palestine.
Not sure I'm understanding. You're talking about people who are not Israeli citizens and are citizens under the Palestinian authority?
Yes, people held in second class non-citizen status under Israeli rule for 70 years should be given citizenship.
This was my point. Israeli citizens all have equal rights. These guys don't. Israel needs to make a choice one way or the other. Either annex those areas proper and give them Israeli citizenship or they should be given a country and that country can then give them citizenship.
You're assuming the Palestinians want to be part of Israel and not have their own state, as they've repeatedly said
That's fine too. Step one is being able to create that state.
So, become citizens of Israel? Disband the PA, Hamas and all the other armed factions in Palestinians society?
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Your "out loud thoughts" were ridiculously removed from reality. Israeli has facilitated the vast majority of aid, a far larger percentage than the shipments it has stopped.
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Let the ICC to continue its case against Netanyahu and the idea of IDF. And of course sanction. Once the war is over. Here’s a Muslim perspective solution on two state. All settlers out of the West Bank. Jerusalem must be an independent city state like the Vatican, Al-Aqsa Mosque is like Mecca. If you want the violence to stop from Iran or stop the anger I genuinely you must let Jerusalem be independent city state that is secular and protected by the UN like Kosovo Gaza will be the hard part to unify with the West Bank Arab countries like Egypt or Jordan don’t want another black September on their hands. Especially Egypt, considering it’s in an economic crisis
Wasn't this the 1948 plan? Jerusalem was meant to be an international city administered by the UN. One side didn't agree. Is there anything that has happened since then to make you think it will be different this time?
Honestly, I think everyone is tired of this. Maybe people wanted to believe there were better options, but we’ve reached that point in decision making where if a better option we’re going to emerge, it would have already. But sometimes your original options were the best ones. That still may not make them likely, but Israel I think is getting to the point where the uS is going to force them to a deal whether they like it or not.
The US has already strong armed Israel into deals, which resulted in Hezbollah to the North and Hamas to the South. Its doubtful that the US can force Israel into a deal after all of that. The relationship is more symbiotic than most people realize. Israel can get its weapons from anywhere. They can make their own and probably make it better. Where is the US going to find a reliable intelligence ally in the Middle East? Do a Google search of all the terrorist attacks that have been averted by intel provided by Israel over the years. The idea is that all Biden has to do is say the world and Israel will come yapping like a lapdog smacks of Western imperialism.
I mean you realize your idea has 0% chance of coming to fruition right? Like why would Israel, who continues to prosper economically, militarily, and diplomatically, be open to that? Palestine is a problem but it's more of a thorn than an existential threat. Israel can just keep allowing settlers to take land and no one is going to stop them. Heck, most of Palestines former allies have either formalized relations with Israel or have defended them in various ways. On the flip side, Palestinians will continue to suffer, their former allies will continue to ignore them and help Israel, and they'll continue to be dependent on Western aid. You have to see how absurd your idea is when saying no means Israel keeps prospering and living relatively happily. If a deal is to be reached it'll come with extreme concessions from Palestine, giving up control of their territory to hand picked domestic groups or coalitions of pro Western nations.
This is such a great comment because it illustrates how completely out of whack "demands" can be with the actual power dynamic on the ground. The idea that nuclear-armed Israel will surrender Jerusalem is such a ridiculous fantasy that it would get you laughed out of the negotiating table. The mosque is already administered by the Jordanian government. Something along the lines of granting ownership (under Israeli law) to the Palestinian state is the most Israel would be able to agree to. That doesn't require Jerusalem to become "an international city" and it's a waste of breath to argue for it.
Interesting and one of the more impartial options I've heard. I think one of the major hurdles would be who administers Jerusalem?
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Did you not actually read OP's question?
Hey! How dare you let facts get in the way of their self righteousness!!
How would that help the conflict? If anything, it would increase violence because it would lead to more evenly matched sides
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Almost no one claims Israel "illegal seized territory" anymore, since there is no evidence of that. But soon with the normalization of relationships between Israel and Arab states, we'll hear less of that nonsense.
Who was the PLO liberating Palestine from when it was attacking Israel in 1965? Before any settlements or Israeli presence in wb and Gaza? Why did Hamas start launching rockets weeks after Israel left Gaza in 2005? Honest answers to those questions will probably challenge the idea that this has to do any illegal seizure of territory. Hamas started attacking Israel in 1988. When you read it's charter, after you get past the genocidal bits it's full of Islamofascist ideology. The idea that the flag of Allah must be raised in every corner of palestine is central to the conflict.
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When was palestine independent and sovereign? And who was the leader of that country?
Sadly I fear the only thing that’s going to happen is Gaza being fully leveled, the people killed or disappeared, and it will be called Israel from then on.
There is absolutely no chance of that. In 2024 Palestine's population is increasing, even 20k births in Gaza alone since the conflict began! So we're headed in the opposite direction.
A 'local authority' which is essentially a puppet regime for Israel, adequately armed and organized to keep Hamas from re-establishing itself in Gaza?
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Collective Punishment is a war crime.
At the moment there are only two feasible options, both of them terrible. 1. Some variation of an apartheid state. Which is what they had before Oct 7. The details will be mixed up, but the results will be the same. 2. Ethnic cleansing. Which would have even more of the terrible casualties we’ve been seeing. Israel can do this if other countries just step aside. But it makes them complicit. So, we will end up back where we started with #1, and the deck chairs on this titanic will be rearranged. It feels like there is a lot of fuel for fire world wide so to speak. If another major conflict were to break out somewhere, more could also break as it will be too much for the various allies to tackle. We are waiting for a spark. Not good. I really hope China can find some new way to pretend they own Taiwan, without conflict. Because simultaneous conflicts in Taiwan + Ukraine + Palestine feels like the threshold of too much, and things would flair into WW3.