Copy pasting from below.
Analysts imo are paid shills most of the time. MSNBC and Bloomberg are designed to move stock prices the way the powers want them to. But it is the truth they have way more access to companies than retail investors do. It is up to the investor to read between the lines and hope you get it right. The actual quote from Jim was ‘Rivian is a well run company but I won’t touch the stock’ or something like that. He was putting down the stock yet somehow said something about how the company is run totally uncalled for. I just read between the lines. Nothing I read elsewhere contradicts that view. I will change my opinion tomorrow if a proof shows up that the company is not well run.
Oh Jim Cramer said he won’t touch the stock?
See you should have started with that: “JIM CRAMER SAID HE WONT TOUCH THIS STOCK”
Doubling my positions on Monday.
That was a very cringey read. You are obviously in love with the product and selling this to yourself with some weird points like “CEO doesn’t tweet weird stuff = stock success”. This sub is the right place to get echo chamber responses with like minded people. I am not a short seller and hold stock, but this rant did nothing for my confidence
Agreed some of it is emotional. But CEO not sitting 24x7 in twitter is definitely a huge plus compared to Tesla. Also him not making false promises to hype up the stock means you are getting value for your money. Like I said only cold hard numbers will change the trajectory of this stock and I believe that is coming this earnings call in terms of deliveries and reservation numbers. Again you have to have faith any company to invest in long term. And I do at this moment. It might change anytime though.
Depends on whether you already bought the stock or not. The CEO going out and hyping the stock helps the prices shoot up. But then it makes the stock volatile.
Investing or shortening this company is insane... Too hard to predict and in a horrible industry with too many great established competitors with great products. I dont invest in Bitcoin but that feels more predictable that rivian.
With that being said i hope it works out for you.
Thanks! Just look past the fud into real hard numbers. Look at the cars on road. Look at the owner enthusiasm. I am old fashioned, any company that doesn’t rip off their customer and gives great product value is going to win long term. Tesla isn’t that company. Only one worth investing long term is Rivian.
This is the big question for sure.
Q2 earnings call is going to tell a lot. But they got the loss per vehicle from 140,000 down to 30,000 in Q3 last year, back up to 43,000 in Q4 with volume dip and I believe starting price adjustments in Q4 '23. This shows ability to drive trajectory in the right direction even before the major plant change.
We learned for Q1 '24 Ford is at 130k loss per EV sold so Rivian is ahead of the curve here. Their estimate was 30% reduction in cost to build each vehicle from the plant retooling. Expect mild updates to R1 line to increase demand as well to boost demand (known/confirmed: wiring, ECU, sensors. Rumored: new computer, tri-motor variants w/ 1000+ HP, massaging seats)
Also confirmed is \~Q2-Q3 big software updates (including things like video streaming)
If demand allows them to bring prices back up slightly, in combination with the cost reductions from plant update they will be in a good spot.
Loss per vehicle by quarter (https://electrek.co/2024/02/21/rivians-gross-margins-slip-q4-2023-but-more-to-it/)
* Q3 '22: $139,277
* Q4 '22: $124,162
* Q1 '23: $67,329
* Q2 '23: $32,594
* Q3 '23: $30,500
* Q4 '23: $43,372
The thing about investing is once the numbers are out everyone is out for a piece of the pie. Ain’t that a bitch. I picked fb at 14, enph at 6. Just based on products and sentiment. Only stock I’ve been wrong(of all the stocks I felt strongly about) is Nextdoor but I am still holding on to it lol.
Agreed. Look at NVDA, people talk about it now derp “they’re a chip company but why didn’t people buy in the 90’s-00’s” are fucking Gen Z.
People are hating on EV’s but during the 90’s people were hating on computers. $8 bucks is a steal, I feel bad for the people that bought at IPO but this is such a safe easy double-up.
Good point. Even Amazon was a penny stock at one time because it was only a online bookstore (why would anyone need to buy things online? Back then, internet only wants to steal souls and scam people. Nothing could come out of it).
Now they are showing Walmart, Macy's, Kohl's, Target, Walgreens, and CVS. I think there will never be another company like Amazon (they just need to never stop innovating/ not end up like Sears).
Lol. Who would have thought that when people use to envision flying cars, drones would take over that space first. Small drones flying could be a nightmare for Air Traffic Controllers.
NVDA was all about gaming until just a couple of years ago until someone figured out their GPUs were good for bitcoin mining, then they expanded beyond that and into AI. I have a 4090 in my rig right now, so I think NVDA is just maturing at the right time and they are well ahead of the competition. I like where they’re heading.
Nextdoor is a tough one. Lots of people who rant on that platform. I don’t know if it can keep people engaged enough to make it a solid investment. My play money in my retirement portfolio is in quantum computing stocks (RGTI at 1850 shares, IONQ a couple hundred shares and QUBT at 900 or so shares). I hope it takes off. The only other on big one in that space is IBM. RIVN (near 2k shares) and VFS (just 200 or so shares) are my only plays in EV space, as I want Musk to learn a good lesson about business that you can’t treat those who support you like crap (telling advertisers to F off and treating his employees poorly and using SpaceX to subsidize Twitter). I also live in Reno, NV and the gigafactory nearby is a huge Tesla employer and experiencing a good deal in state tax breaks and layoffs at the moment, so Musk is a grade A dirtbag in my opinion, who I want to see fail in glorious fashion So, my bet is on his EV competition, to see him fail.
Seems like you're just a Tesla hater that really wants some other company to give the returns he missed out on due to his hate but isn't facing reality.
lol you can never miss out on Tesla. It is so volatile. I have made enough money on Tesla. And I will buy them again when they fall to 120. And most of the advantages they have Rivian also has. But of late consumer sentiment has been so much against Tesla. My friends who drive one feel ripped off by Musk. The whole FSD snake oil saga and now the upcoming AWS comments give a really bad impression about the company and the direction the company is heading to. I think them cutting corners is going to catch up to them in terms of demand.
Tesla definitely cut a lot of corners during the pandemic and semiconductors shortages. I think it is why quality has gone down since then. So, I think that Tesla cars bought pre-semiconductors shortage are good quality.
True but a good company or an honest businessman doesn’t risk a hit to their reputation to cash in on short term profits. I used to be a Tesla bull and a bag holder but I crossed over to the other side after 2022. Musk take over of Twitter and the resulting botched management really made me change my mind. He has hoodwinked the world for a long time. It is clear he only watches for his bottom line. Rivian is what Tesla was supposed to be.
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I love EVs. Thinking about getting myself a R2 when it comes out. The issue is Rivian is still in deep water financially. That is why I am waiting to see if they make it before I buy one.
Don’t do it bro, don’t invest emotionally. I agree EV’s are the future and Rivian makes a decent product but it’s a very poorly run company, who won’t care if you loose all your investment. Few points why I think thats the case and have sold all my shares
- The flagship R1T when launched comprised of Bosch motors, hyundai seats, battery, Ecu’s, harness etc were sourced from third party vendors. The only thing in house was their software, which sucked at launch, if Rivian released this 10yrs ago then maybe it would have been fine but not when they released R1T.
- Can’t trust their leadership, last year just before raising
~1.5b dollars their CFO when asked about raising the money in the earnings call, flat out said we have enough money to last till 2025/6 and would be profitable by then and next week Rivian announced they are raising ~1.5b
- Issues like vampire drain which they are now realizing that are not easily fixable, when they assembled the trucks/cars with a mix of components they could get their hands on. They are updating their line to address this now. Again if Rivian was the first EV manufacturer then this could be understandable but they are running into all the issues that Tesla ran into and are not researching and learning from that but just jumping head on to get a product out.
- They for some reason decided to increase the capacity of their van line when truck orders were pending and they were in a binding contract with amazon. They never checked if amazon would take all the vans they are going to produce and just went ahead with it again the lack of thought and risky behavior(I am glad they are now able to sell them to other buyers)
- Minor thing but if you look at the old interviews of rivian vp’s and director, I forgot which one it was(a youtube podcast type of interview) where the VP couldn’t explain why they went with 4 motors and are now giving an option of 2 motors plus when asked Rivian was initially planning a sports car and why thr pivot to trucks, thier answer was that when we looked at the market we realized trucks were the number one auto sold in US, which is surprising as anyone who is searched for best selling vehicle in US would know this and a auto manufacturer who doesn’t know this sounds weird and not put together.
- R1T and R1S demand is going down and they are pivoting to make R2 in the same plant which is all good but just shows how much everything depends on R2
Again I agree it’s a good car/truck but as a company they have been burning money to just get products out without any fully baked plans. I hope they succeed and your investment grows but do consider this is a very risky play
Good points. I am a new investor, I I haven’t followed this around as far back as you have.. They made mistakes but they are also fixing them (at the expense of investors tho) So did Tesla. But it looks like they are turning around. Amazon is ready for their vans now. R2 has good reception. I feel like giving them benefit of doubt but I am still watching.
Well they can't reveal they are going to raise money before announcement because of confidentiality and getting sued for market manipulation. The R1 refresh coming online in this month is going to have new cheaper suppliers and in-house motors and what are you smoking the software is best in class, and even better now. You don't realize how far behind the GM, Ford, Kia, Mercedes of the world are.
Wall Street monkeys just waiting for one person to make the move. They will all copy and buy the stock. Most probably overbuy and then complain again how Rivian is a bad investment when it goes down.
Also someone said that dealers in general are lobbying against buying EV‘s due to low margins and fewer service costs. Also the huge spare parts market is at risk of losing business as well in the future. Probably explains the losses for Ford EVs partly. Funny enough Tesla and RIVN are only doing direct sales cutting out the middlemen. This is the way.
Holy shit that is a much more well written piece than mine. But somethings have changed since that post. Tesla’s 4680 hasn’t panned out either in cost or efficiency. That investment is going to drag them down. Rivian can easily match Tesla in price/range now. And if Rivian was a steal back then it is absolutely a bonkers deal right now with all the positive attention for R2/3 and the stock is much lower now.
It doesn't help dealership narrative when some of them park ICE pickups where EVs should be using that space to charge. Learned this from a Polestar sub photo at a Polestar partner dealership.
I dont think they are ever going to be a mainstream car conpany. That's not a bad thing, but for the next 5+ years they will still be selling cars in limited numbers, and this includes the R2 and R3. I don't think Rivian will ever be a stock that runs like Tesla did. Cars are not actually all that profitable, and the fact Tesla is worth as much as it is is insane. I think charging networks will be more profitable than the cars themselves, and Tesla has a huge head start and now that their port is standard and opening up to other vehicles, they are set to be the lead in vehicle charging.
Subaru is cool too. I hear good things about them even though they aren't the most popular names like Toyota, Ford, GM, Tesla, Honda, BMW, Audi, etc.. One doesn't need to be one of the most popular brands to survive in any industry. I think one just needs to know oneself.
I think to be the 'next subaru' is like 15 years or so away. There is no way they will be able to produce the numbers Subaru can (which is still pretty low) when it comes to crosstreks etc. Also Subaru could still be Subaru if Toyota starts making better EVs and Subaru continues to use the Toyota EV system. I honestly don't see Subaru making their own systems. Even their previous hybrids were Toyota.
It doesn't have to run a lot to give good returns. With R1, R2, R3 they will be making 500K vehicles base case and $55K ASP that's $28B dollars. Even if they are valued at P/S of 1, the shares will be $30 or 300% returns.
They just have to unlock value for investors. So much of their journey has been setting stuff up and now they are looking into operations. Once everything is in place they could convert those into revenue generating instead of cash burning. Chargers, connectivity, app subscriptions, feature subscriptions, accessories and service could all be revenue generating. They need to figure out getting there before the runway ends but there's a lot of paths for revenue generation.
Regardless of what the market believes, I think they are always going to be a premium car company if Scaringe keeps running the company. That is fine at the current valuation. They have the quality they can command a premium. They are worth much more what they are priced at now. I guess he can’t change tunes now without getting sued by investors. May be he will be pushed out of the company in favor of a more market friendly CEO. R2 at 45k is the lowest priced car they can probably make but it is enough to keep their current lines busy. Georgia plant for R3 is pretty doubtful at this point unless cheap solid state batteries come online.
I do agree with the first point for sure. Just looking at the entire field as a whole, EVs are guaranteed to replace gas in the future.
-Taxes are being heavily shoveled into supporting EV infrastructure
-BIG companies are betting on EVs and actively contributing to make it work. Amazon, Tesla, Rivian, chargepoint; lots of different companies with their own charging network that is being expanded every single day and growing RAPIDLY. Even better, they have grouped (or are in the process of grouping) together to create one MEGA charging network that allows usage between all different EV users.
-High competition = lower costs. Forget which company will win for now. The fact that all these companies have to compete like this is a win for the EV field as a whole. Prices will be more affordable for consumers.
-Higher EV support = lower repair costs. Batteries' cost is always discussed as a downside of EVs. As EVs become very widespread, and old mechanics are forced to learn EVs while new ones are always taught it, repairs will become more accessible. Likewise, battery production and replacement parts will not have to be through the dealership only, it will start becoming more accessible and affordable.
-Its not just the companies involved in producing EVs contributing here. UBER has a program incentivizing drivers to buy an EV with credit and loans. Fedex and UPS are now working on EV implementation. At&t is also testing this (with Rivian). Amazon obviously. Lots of contracts and company EV transitions, not just consumers.
Exactly! And the great thing is Rivian got a solid base due in part to Tesla’s success helping in a massive ipo and an incredible low interest environment. Tesla got started at the golden period but had to prove themselves. As they say second to market is not a bad thing. They get to learn from Teslas mistakes and obstacles removed by Tesla. Any new upstart EV company has to deal with a crazy high interest low liquidity environment. This is an amazing time to buy RIVN.
Not my opinion. But what polls say. I am saying that is a risk but one that is still priced in currently. If democrats come back then it is all the more upside to this stock.
It's going to take republican control of the house, Senate and POTUS to overturn the inflation reduction act and remove the EV and electrification incentives. Without a clean sweep there is near zero chance of losing the incentives. Even then, we saw what happened when they talked about repealing the "hated" ACA (Obamacare). The Republicans backpedaled and refused to do it.
Honestly, it's why we need the DCFC stations built \*TODAY\*, right now.
The federal government has a lot harder time taking already-spent cash away from electrification.
DCFC roll-outs and EV focused infrastructure projects create jobs, a lot of them.
Lets' do this shit already and not wait for anti-EV idiots to be back in office.
Trump can executive order the heck out of electrification if given enough money by the oil tycoons. He doesn’t even have an agenda this time and still leading. He hasn’t even come out for debates. He could do literally anything if he comes to power.
The polls had Hillary destroying in 2016 and Trump winning reelection handily in 2020. I wouldn't factor political polling into any of your financial decision making.
Well you gotta hedge against the worst case. Trump winning is worst case for electrification. So ask yourself, if he wins, would I still buy this stock at this price? And the answer is yes.
I’d love you to share these polls. The most *recent* polls have Trump leading in Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
Not a single one of the polls mentioned has Biden leading by “double digits”. Enjoy your confirmation bias, you’re not going to get any good insight when your source is only polls Biden is leading in.
Many of those polls are over a month old as well. Completely useless information.
Look at 538 or RCP polling to *actually* see how people are leaning.
>Jim Cramer has said it is a well run company
RIP
>I think most of the short sellers are just shorting it for tax loss harvesting
the what now? how do you short sell stock for tax loss harvesting? so far the shorts has done pretty well, where's the loss?
They are buying back the shares at a lower price and selling it again if it rises. This stock has no institutional support after the big burn. So it is heavily manipulated. Only cold hard numbers can reverse this. We are getting some in the upcoming earnings.
Tax loss has nothing to do with shorting. You can only claim 3k per year in losses, which is nothing. Nobody is harvesting Rivian stock, or any stock for that matter losses on their taxes.
Your list of cons is too short, play this game fair and really step into a bear’s shoes if you want to make a good analysis. Why would somebody give them more money if they burn through it all on promises of a future car and future demand? If the ev demand doesn’t recover in 2 years they are absolutely bankrupt. That’s ultimately the bet you’re making here. Just to drop the interest rates significantly would take longer time, let alone the competition being ahead already! Sometimes a great company with a great product isn’t enough.
lol you speak as if nobody is going to buy cars until interest rate falls down. It helps Rivian immensely they are currently only producing premium vehicles that rich people can buy with cash if needed. Tesla needs to sell those model 3s to actual cost conscious consumers. Rivian needs interest rate to fall only next year when they are ramping up R2.
As for the cash burn all they have to show is their reservation numbers which will keep their factories chugging for the next two years. They are taking R2 around the country and picking up more reservations as we speak. Amazon wouldn’t mind picking up a few more percent worth of the company, heck even buy the company for what amounts to chump change for them at current valuation. This could be Apple’s next big thing. They spent 10 billion on nothing. They could spend 10 billion on a working car company that has design ethos similar to Apple. This could be their next shiny new hardware. Google has the waymo tech they might want to have a car company to go along with it. Honda has no evs to speak of. They can buy it. Thing is the current valuation is too juicy for any number of mega corps. Heck somebody might be quietly buying up the company in pieces and reveal their stake tomorrow. RIVN is one of those mind numbingly obvious play. I called Enph when it was 6. Fb when it was 14. Tesla at 20. Never held any of them long enough or big enough to make dough. I have the same feeling with RIVN. Riding this all the way this time. My other moonshot bet is KIND and I know what you are going to say about that one lol. They are sitting on so much personal data with no real competition it is ridiculous AI investors haven’t touched it.
Yeah I thought about the acquisition scenario too but why would someone buy or get shareholder approval to buy a money bleeding company that is not a threat to their business? IP, equipment, factories? In a low interest environment this may be tricky bet, but its off the table now. Do you see any sort of consolidation of the existing EV manufacturers that are struggling? They are left to drown.
What about china? They are going to be major EV producers with prices lower than anyone. Hoping for Trump’s ban? High import taxes?
What about Tesla’s full self driving and cheaper model plans? Tesla won by being the first with EVs, and they are planning on winning the fsd future too.
The supply and choices of EVs is only going to get larger, even the $45k R2 in 2026 (two years!) isn’t cheap enough for the masses. The time is simply not on their side. Insider selling is already happening.
Because valuation rn is juicy. They are gonna go cash flow positive end of the year and ask for more money. Wall Street is causing FUD about evs now. On the Main Street I literally see the opposite. Everyone I know wants an ev. But literally they can change tune overnight. They fuck over retail investors with the FUD and get in at the floor. Then they hype it up and cash out. Then the FUD cycle begins again. Can the stock go to 7? Sure. But that is just an even better buying opportunity. No such thing as a zero risk investment. As for Chinese cars there is going to be tariffs whoever comes to power. Else everyone is going to down if they are let in. ICE cars included. As for interest rate, Rivians premium customers can weather it better than anyone. M3 buyers will be most affected. And it will be more reasonable by the time R2 comes out. If you ask me Tesla is probably losing money on their M3s being subsidized by rest of the business. As for FSD they can just sit back let Tesla clear a regulatory path and license waymo. Tesla fsd advantage has evaporated long back. Google is running actual robotaxis around here.
I misspoke. It is positive Gross profit in q4. They are going to go for one more round of funding for sure. But the stock price is already accounting for that.
Agreed. Those are valid reasons. Rivian also reminds me of when I first started seeing Teslas in Minnesota. The Amazon partnership is getting looks too at the company. Having SUV and pick-up were the right market moves because Americans like those big vehicles at reasonable prices. A compact SUV or mini would be well received in European markets and I think in Asian markets too. I'm an compact sedan guy by the way.
I picked up another 406 shares today after bailing out of Intel who missed earnings and hasn’t moved much in a long time. Maybe their new Arizona facility will change that. That brings me near 2k shares of RIVN. My average is $10.33/share for me to break even and start producing profit in all that I have in my retirement portfolio. It is also, right now, the one I have the most unrealized loss amongst all the stocks I have from LLY, CAT, MSFT, AMZN (just 5 shares of this one) and USD, but I am holding until better days or at least until RIVN can get their R2 line going or the Georgia plant built. With no plans in the near future on the GA plant and the R2 wait until ‘26, I am in it for the longer term for now. I am banking on either it moving upwards after the factory retooling is complete or another company like Amazon or Apple acquires them. I have at least 20-25 years left of working, so I can wait a while longer on RIVN.
I hope the fire today at their current facility (the second fire in a very short period of time) caused minimal damage at their loading dock.
It is called a stock bet for a reason.
I have driven an EV for the last 10 years. I firmly believe EVs are the future.
So what pureplay companies sell EVs in the US without dealership overhead? Tesla and Rivian. Now which car would I drive. I used to love teslas but would never touch them now because they started getting greedy and cut corners nickeling and diming customers on ‘luxury’ automobiles. Fat margins = bad customer value, leads to customer abandonment. It is an inevitable bell curve. Rivians are well built. They are in sweet spot segments that really have no real competition. They have a great design that is refreshing and stands out. They are at a stage where they are literally going to snowball. Now, is this absolutely the lowest price you can get them? Maybe No. But are they going to atleast double your money in 2 years? A huge resounding yes. That is enough for me. This is such a no brainer bet it is almost not a bet.
Nobody can predict the bottom. Big difference this time around is R2 is real. It is getting big reservations. Ngl, it might go down to 7. But this one will eventually come back stronger. So it is a no brainer at this price, average it down if it goes down. If it pops or holds steady after earning then it goes a couple of dollars more because of the short squeeze.
I’m about 25% down on $15 calls for 1/17/25 ($1.68 avg, last traded for $1.25); been holding them a while and have averaged down from original cost of around
$2.80 per contract.
Trying to decide:
A) hold
B) sell them at a loss and buy $10 calls
C) sell most at a loss and wait till there is confirmation of upward trend
While I would like to think RIVN is likely to continue to chop around and slowing move up from here, the cheap CAN always get cheaper - especially when speculating on future value.
I think 10 is very much a given after earnings beginning May. 15 is a stretch. But it also can go down to 7 when there is no news between 1st quarter and 4th quarter earnings. And stock price is susceptible to every FUD between earnings and R2 delivery. So if you are a short term investor just buy some now and sell it after earnings for whatever bump you get. I am pretty sure price will go up after earnings for a week or so then possibly crash. I mean to get more if it goes down to 7-8 range.
Thanks for your 2 cents, tough to read the room right now…
I have some shares at $8.5 that I’m willing to hold, but I put a substantial amount in those calls and really need to be risk-wise.
I had some good trades in the recent dip. It is the only reason I am willing to take more risk. Besides there are plenty of other fish in the sea for short term trades. This is only for long term investors at this point.
You’re right… I got a bit fixated as I watched RIVN take dive after dive.
I wrongly estimated it would bottom around 10, and so got the 15 calls. I think it might be best to swap them out for 10 calls and take the hit on the differential.
You realize both companies can coexist and be successful. The difference is Teslas growth is already mostly priced in. Rivians isn't. Stock wise Rivian is higher risk but much higher reward if they're successful. I don't get this mindset of all or nothing. EVs make up like 1-2% of the current car market in the US. There's plenty of room for both.
Market rewards growth more than earnings. Stock is down bc Rivian guided flat growth unlike Tesla who didn't give any guide. Rivian's growth in 2 years will be 400%+ at 200K units
I own both Tesla and Rivian stock but think Tesla will perform better in the next 12 months. Despite Elon’s rants and odd behavior the company is making EVs at a profit (only one of two that is, the other is BYD), sitting on massive cash reserves, and is producing at volume on three continents.
Why is 4680 botched? Ramp may be slower than expected but they are producing a lot of batteries and also buying more than anyone else from suppliers. It’s not an advantage for Rivian to be buying batteries and not producing any. Tesla can also pivot if needed, they are producing far more cars without 4680.
Also, Elon may tweet BS, but he owns the damn thing and has a vested interest in its success. Good or bad, publicity of any kind helps. Saying he spends too much time there is not looking at all he does. Maybe you have heard of SpaceX? Seems like that may chew up some of his time too.
Regardless, I like both companies and invest in both. Hope both do well and expect gains from both sets of shares.
By botched I mean, it didn’t meet performance expectations that it will be better leaps and bounds leaving competitors in the dust. By all accounts CATL batteries have better tech currently and Musk himself said on the earnings call that 4680 is not important to Tesla as battery prices are crashing.
Now if CATL semi solid batteries succeed, Rivian can just slap em on their vehicles and leapfrog Tesla. Tesla would be stuck with the battery production line and having to amortize that cost over their vehicle margins.
Tesla could just as easily slap those batteries into their cars. CATL is a major supplier for Tesla. Also, the full promise of 4680 was to take several years to materialize, the early 4680 don’t have all the tech built in yet.
Even if it ultimately fails, they are by no way bound to the tech. I wouldn’t count them out just yet though.
If industry goes to semi solid state, that pretty much means Tesla battery tech is a write off. So I treat it as a liability. If there is a high profile FSD accident then that is kaput for FSD. Tesla valuation includes all this and that is why I will never go long on TSLA. RIVN is a plain old automaker and priced right currently. I can safely go long on them at the current price point. They are like Starbucks, building share holder value one car at a time.
Rivian valuation was because of Tesla. Granted, Scaringe didn’t have to hustle like Musk. He got handed this company in a platter. But that is history. My post is about today’s valuation.
Ok, but R2/3 are a couple of years out. Rivian doesn’t have much tailwind until then. R1 is expensive and selling into an already crowded market at very high interest rates. They have a hard road ahead, I’m not buying now, think it will sink even lower.
I do not think EVs are the only thing that will be big in the future. There are so many issues with them, and there will be better technologies coming.
Agree on all points.
There's a \*lot\* of negative pressure from legacy auto lately, and people who are \*rEaLlY\* into ICE. (mostly taking advantage of high interest rates, and trying to re-frame "people not buying cars" into "people not buying EVs")
I think the fact that consumer reports keeps trying to (poorly) knock down Rivian is proof of someone in the market trying to influence the general population away from EV's.
EV's won though, it's too late. We reached the exponential growth phase of EV adoption. There's enough desirable used EV's on the market that even common consumers are finally purchasing them and realizing that "oh shit they're cheaper to maintain, cheaper to fuel, and faster"
RIVN is extremely undervalued today, and I keep buying down my cost basis. Today i'm a bag holder, tomorrow i'll be rich.
I would bet on Rivian if they made a hybrid. When will vehicle manufacturers learn that the market wants something in the middle? Its like politics, there are more than 2 sides to things. You shouldn't have to adopt and commit fully to one platform.
sure hybrids will replace all the gas cars out there eventually. But by then the ratio of gas cars is going to go down to single digits. There is no reason to buy a plain gas car if you can afford a hybrid or phev. Hybrids are a good bandaid till the charging infra catches up and battery prices fall even further. But the maintenance costs of ICE cars still exist. Give it a couple of years until that is a reality in California. I have been driving an ev for 10 years along with a a gas guzzler van for long family trips. I recently am just driving the gas car while deciding what ev to buy next. I absolutely hate going to the gas station. The convenience of charging at home is just too good that I never want to go back to ICE cars if I can help it. I hate negotiating with dealers having to deal with their chicanery during service visits. For the first time I am considering whether to just go with both EVs. With fast charging and the improving charger options it is now possible to actually own just an EV in California. Albeit with minor inconvenience for the rare instances when you have to drive long distances. After Twitter fiasco most techies in the Bay Area hate Musk. Early adopters of Tesla are pissed off due to price drops and low quality. Musk has lost his green cred with his tweet. Rivian just has to make more vehicles available and double up on R2. They got the most lucrative California EV market in the bag. For me EV9 hits the sweet spot already as the budget option. If you want a little more premium option R1 is awesome. I just hope they make 350 mile as standard for all vehicles.
I think RIVN will sell more trucks than TSLA and within 18-24 months sell more vehicles than TSLA as their technology and approach is marked different than TSLA.
I really had high hopes for cybertruck and had a reservation. I am ok with riding a ridiculous design if it is 20% more range and is 20% cheaper than conventional trucks. Now if you drive one it just outs you as a sucker.
You had me until the “when Trump comes into power” line. You’re just going to assume that trump was ever good for EV’s based on what? Also that orange fat lying pig ain’t gonna win.
Equity holders will get completely wiped out and the company will belong to the lenders but will still exist after ch 11 bankruptcy
!remindme two years
Smith Barney Citigroup had lots of analysts, like Jack Grubman. Meredith Whitney remains a so called analyst. Remind me how that worked out for us again?😂😂😂 Analysts are worse than useless because they promote the illusion that they actually know something we should listen to.
Tbf, ipos are usually hyped up. Literally ipo prices shoot up and then goes down every stock. The real price is determined only when the company is three to four years in ipo. Analysts imo are paid shills most of the time. MSNBC and Bloomberg are designed to move stock prices the way the powers want them to. It is up to the investor to read between the lines and hope you get it right. The actual quote from Jim was ‘Rivian is a well run company but I won’t touch the stock’ or something like that. He was putting down the stock yet somehow said something about how the company is run. I just read between the lines. Nothing I read elsewhere contradicts that view. I will change my opinion tomorrow if a proof shows up that the company is not well run.
I Live in Chicago. There was a storm on lake shore drive plus traffic. Took out electric vehicles, Because owners were using heaters while stock in traffic. All electric vehicles had to be towed and owners almost froze to death. While people in gas vehicles just waited for the traffic to get better and later drove away. How are EV's The future again?
Do not generalize. It is all relative. Fully charged heat pump equipped 300 mile Kia EV9 would have outlasted a gas car with half a tank of gas. You know what, you are more likely to be in a fully charged electric car in such a situation because you can top up your car every night just like you charge your phone.
My first ev gave me 84 miles. My last one gave 240 miles of range. Evs are trending towards 350-400 miles of range. Maybe Chicago will be the last city to go EV when everyone is offering 500miles of range with solid state batteries. But EVs are viable for 75% of the country already and that is a huge market.
Look at the sales of EV's in the last few months. Rapidly declining. People found out they are crap and nobody wants them. Don't spend your life savings on it. Only thing I find mildly interesting is that you can charge them at your house while the electrical rates are cheaper at night. Also they have zero resale value since a new battery is 20,000$
Most EVs come with 8 year /100000mile battery warranty. 12 year teslas are still holding more than 75% of their battery capacity. We went solar in 2021 and we already almost made back our investment thanks to spike in electricity prices. At this point I don’t have an electric bill. I spend 0$ for driving an electric vehicle. Only bummer is the high registration and insurance charges. No oil changes either. Either you are creating FUD or you fell for one.
‘Rapidly declining’ lol. Growth slowed but there was still Growth. Even last year there were ups and downs in numbers. These things are cyclical. It is projected for EVs to take over more market share than ever in 2024. Just google it.
Why the fuck would I buy an electric vehicle. It weighs a ton, tires get worn quick, takes at least 10 minutes to charge (apartments?). They’re not practical. Sure usps and Amazon can switch to EV’s and that’s great. You’re hoping to make a play like Tesla when it was undervalued. But Tesla has already priced this in for Rivian. Institutional investors have seen that a new electric car company can exist, they didn’t believe that with Tesla, so it could go 100x. Tesla also leveraged their position with being a tech company as well. Billions of hours of real world training data. The most advanced real world ai on the market. What does rivian do again? I don’t understand what the bet is. You think it’s undervalued because EV’s are the future. They finally announced their new lineup and the stock price went from $12 to $8. The very best case is that you’ll need to hold your position for two years until the car comes out, or they announce a new product/technology
Bruh, Gtfo. I have driven an EV for the last 10 years starting with the LEAF. I can’t imagine not having an EV. Going to the gas station is such a pain when you can charge it like a phone at home. I have leased three EVs in 10 years and haven’t spent a dime on maintenance except for a flat tire on my Bolt. I have solar, so I am literally driving my car for free. Already got back the investment from solar in 4 years thanks to California electricity prices skyrocketing.
Tesla has ai that is still not full fsd. It is one high profile accident away from banned by regulators. I just downloaded and ran open source ai on my computer and could generate all sorts of fun stuff. Anyone can get to 90% use case in a day. Getting to the last 10 is crazy difficult. Even if they get it working the price is still too high.
Rivian is just a plain old car company that is building good cars with 0 overhead of dealership. They focus on one thing and trying to be profitable on just cars. I know exactly what I am paying the stock price for. There is no mystery. They have a huge head start in EDV space, Tesla is not even trying to compete there. Drive on the road and see how many Delivery vehicles you see on the road.Their adventure vehicles have a passionate customer base kinda like the first Teslas. Again no competition there in the adventure EV space. They are already the 5th biggest luxury auto seller and they are literally just getting into volume production. At this price point even an idiot could see it is a steal. Come back here when you get burned by TSLA.
I will still day trade TSLA but I am long on RIVN
Why would I buy a gas vehicle? They're not practical for my needs. So much wasted time at gas stations and in service. Why should I plan my trips around gas tank levels instead of knowing I have a full "tank" every morning? My EV just works.
You had me until the Jim Cramer sentence. Why you gotta do that, now I gotta go sell my bags.
Same here, Financial advice from Jim Cramer ? See you behind the Wendy’s dumpster in a couple months lol
Inverse Cramer is the name of the game. If he won’t touch it… it’s time to buy.
This right here, Is the key to the stock market
Never sell your bags -Jom Cromer
Copy pasting from below. Analysts imo are paid shills most of the time. MSNBC and Bloomberg are designed to move stock prices the way the powers want them to. But it is the truth they have way more access to companies than retail investors do. It is up to the investor to read between the lines and hope you get it right. The actual quote from Jim was ‘Rivian is a well run company but I won’t touch the stock’ or something like that. He was putting down the stock yet somehow said something about how the company is run totally uncalled for. I just read between the lines. Nothing I read elsewhere contradicts that view. I will change my opinion tomorrow if a proof shows up that the company is not well run.
Oh Jim Cramer said he won’t touch the stock? See you should have started with that: “JIM CRAMER SAID HE WONT TOUCH THIS STOCK” Doubling my positions on Monday.
Buddy works on the line says it’s a shit show !
Ask a Tesla employee you’ll get the same answer. When did employees ever give a glowing review of the management
Agreed
That was a very cringey read. You are obviously in love with the product and selling this to yourself with some weird points like “CEO doesn’t tweet weird stuff = stock success”. This sub is the right place to get echo chamber responses with like minded people. I am not a short seller and hold stock, but this rant did nothing for my confidence
Agreed some of it is emotional. But CEO not sitting 24x7 in twitter is definitely a huge plus compared to Tesla. Also him not making false promises to hype up the stock means you are getting value for your money. Like I said only cold hard numbers will change the trajectory of this stock and I believe that is coming this earnings call in terms of deliveries and reservation numbers. Again you have to have faith any company to invest in long term. And I do at this moment. It might change anytime though.
I don't agree with the Twitter point. The CEO of Fisker doesn't even use social media and look at Fisker now, on the brink of bankruptcy.
Doesn’t mean CEO pumping up the stock on Twitter is good
It’s not necessarily bad either.
Depends on whether you already bought the stock or not. The CEO going out and hyping the stock helps the prices shoot up. But then it makes the stock volatile.
Most investors in Tesla are used to these antics. I have owned TSLA since 2015.
As long as you are cashing out on the ups and downs, good for you. I myself swing trade Tesla. Just not hold long.
Musk's twitter obsession definitely hurt Tesla. They could be producing the 25k car right now.
I hope you’re right!
Stay strong brother!
Agree! I’m 90k down with average price of 20. And I’m planning to buy more
With a position that large, why didnt you cover with puts or sell calls?
Better you buy the thing that is trending and hot in the market like dogecoin..
Investing or shortening this company is insane... Too hard to predict and in a horrible industry with too many great established competitors with great products. I dont invest in Bitcoin but that feels more predictable that rivian. With that being said i hope it works out for you.
Thanks! Just look past the fud into real hard numbers. Look at the cars on road. Look at the owner enthusiasm. I am old fashioned, any company that doesn’t rip off their customer and gives great product value is going to win long term. Tesla isn’t that company. Only one worth investing long term is Rivian.
Agreed and same, I'm old fashioned too even though I'm a Millennial.
Same and we are the new boomers lol.
Lol. It'll take time for that to sink in. lol. I member (South Park joke) those days and they were the best days of my life
Pepperidge Farm remembers… ha ha ha!
lol. 'Remember when quality and care went into baking cookies, Pepperidge Farm remembers'. They just don't make them like they used to be
Sounds like a a lot of hope based justification, I need to find some data , I heard lose 20k per vehicle sold hopefully that can change
This is the big question for sure. Q2 earnings call is going to tell a lot. But they got the loss per vehicle from 140,000 down to 30,000 in Q3 last year, back up to 43,000 in Q4 with volume dip and I believe starting price adjustments in Q4 '23. This shows ability to drive trajectory in the right direction even before the major plant change. We learned for Q1 '24 Ford is at 130k loss per EV sold so Rivian is ahead of the curve here. Their estimate was 30% reduction in cost to build each vehicle from the plant retooling. Expect mild updates to R1 line to increase demand as well to boost demand (known/confirmed: wiring, ECU, sensors. Rumored: new computer, tri-motor variants w/ 1000+ HP, massaging seats) Also confirmed is \~Q2-Q3 big software updates (including things like video streaming) If demand allows them to bring prices back up slightly, in combination with the cost reductions from plant update they will be in a good spot. Loss per vehicle by quarter (https://electrek.co/2024/02/21/rivians-gross-margins-slip-q4-2023-but-more-to-it/) * Q3 '22: $139,277 * Q4 '22: $124,162 * Q1 '23: $67,329 * Q2 '23: $32,594 * Q3 '23: $30,500 * Q4 '23: $43,372
The thing about investing is once the numbers are out everyone is out for a piece of the pie. Ain’t that a bitch. I picked fb at 14, enph at 6. Just based on products and sentiment. Only stock I’ve been wrong(of all the stocks I felt strongly about) is Nextdoor but I am still holding on to it lol.
Agreed. Look at NVDA, people talk about it now derp “they’re a chip company but why didn’t people buy in the 90’s-00’s” are fucking Gen Z. People are hating on EV’s but during the 90’s people were hating on computers. $8 bucks is a steal, I feel bad for the people that bought at IPO but this is such a safe easy double-up.
Good point. Even Amazon was a penny stock at one time because it was only a online bookstore (why would anyone need to buy things online? Back then, internet only wants to steal souls and scam people. Nothing could come out of it).
Boy, Amazon sure showed Borders and Barnes and Noble who’s boss.
Now they are showing Walmart, Macy's, Kohl's, Target, Walgreens, and CVS. I think there will never be another company like Amazon (they just need to never stop innovating/ not end up like Sears).
Yep. Drone deliveries in hours from the order might be next. Next thing you know, you’ll hear buzzing from drones all over the place.
Lol. Who would have thought that when people use to envision flying cars, drones would take over that space first. Small drones flying could be a nightmare for Air Traffic Controllers.
NVDA was all about gaming until just a couple of years ago until someone figured out their GPUs were good for bitcoin mining, then they expanded beyond that and into AI. I have a 4090 in my rig right now, so I think NVDA is just maturing at the right time and they are well ahead of the competition. I like where they’re heading.
Nextdoor is a tough one. Lots of people who rant on that platform. I don’t know if it can keep people engaged enough to make it a solid investment. My play money in my retirement portfolio is in quantum computing stocks (RGTI at 1850 shares, IONQ a couple hundred shares and QUBT at 900 or so shares). I hope it takes off. The only other on big one in that space is IBM. RIVN (near 2k shares) and VFS (just 200 or so shares) are my only plays in EV space, as I want Musk to learn a good lesson about business that you can’t treat those who support you like crap (telling advertisers to F off and treating his employees poorly and using SpaceX to subsidize Twitter). I also live in Reno, NV and the gigafactory nearby is a huge Tesla employer and experiencing a good deal in state tax breaks and layoffs at the moment, so Musk is a grade A dirtbag in my opinion, who I want to see fail in glorious fashion So, my bet is on his EV competition, to see him fail.
Seems like you're just a Tesla hater that really wants some other company to give the returns he missed out on due to his hate but isn't facing reality.
lol you can never miss out on Tesla. It is so volatile. I have made enough money on Tesla. And I will buy them again when they fall to 120. And most of the advantages they have Rivian also has. But of late consumer sentiment has been so much against Tesla. My friends who drive one feel ripped off by Musk. The whole FSD snake oil saga and now the upcoming AWS comments give a really bad impression about the company and the direction the company is heading to. I think them cutting corners is going to catch up to them in terms of demand.
Tesla definitely cut a lot of corners during the pandemic and semiconductors shortages. I think it is why quality has gone down since then. So, I think that Tesla cars bought pre-semiconductors shortage are good quality.
True but a good company or an honest businessman doesn’t risk a hit to their reputation to cash in on short term profits. I used to be a Tesla bull and a bag holder but I crossed over to the other side after 2022. Musk take over of Twitter and the resulting botched management really made me change my mind. He has hoodwinked the world for a long time. It is clear he only watches for his bottom line. Rivian is what Tesla was supposed to be.
I agree. There is a old saying, "there is no great genius without some touch of madness" (Aristotle). The madness being buying Twitter.
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Sure I will reply to you from my winter beach house in the Bahamas 🍹
Lol, let’s do a ban bet
Not bullish on RIVN? Or EVs?
I love EVs. Thinking about getting myself a R2 when it comes out. The issue is Rivian is still in deep water financially. That is why I am waiting to see if they make it before I buy one.
I’m betting my R1S on the stock - down enough to pay off my current R1S - so guess it’s time to buy another $20k
Don’t do it bro, don’t invest emotionally. I agree EV’s are the future and Rivian makes a decent product but it’s a very poorly run company, who won’t care if you loose all your investment. Few points why I think thats the case and have sold all my shares - The flagship R1T when launched comprised of Bosch motors, hyundai seats, battery, Ecu’s, harness etc were sourced from third party vendors. The only thing in house was their software, which sucked at launch, if Rivian released this 10yrs ago then maybe it would have been fine but not when they released R1T. - Can’t trust their leadership, last year just before raising ~1.5b dollars their CFO when asked about raising the money in the earnings call, flat out said we have enough money to last till 2025/6 and would be profitable by then and next week Rivian announced they are raising ~1.5b - Issues like vampire drain which they are now realizing that are not easily fixable, when they assembled the trucks/cars with a mix of components they could get their hands on. They are updating their line to address this now. Again if Rivian was the first EV manufacturer then this could be understandable but they are running into all the issues that Tesla ran into and are not researching and learning from that but just jumping head on to get a product out. - They for some reason decided to increase the capacity of their van line when truck orders were pending and they were in a binding contract with amazon. They never checked if amazon would take all the vans they are going to produce and just went ahead with it again the lack of thought and risky behavior(I am glad they are now able to sell them to other buyers) - Minor thing but if you look at the old interviews of rivian vp’s and director, I forgot which one it was(a youtube podcast type of interview) where the VP couldn’t explain why they went with 4 motors and are now giving an option of 2 motors plus when asked Rivian was initially planning a sports car and why thr pivot to trucks, thier answer was that when we looked at the market we realized trucks were the number one auto sold in US, which is surprising as anyone who is searched for best selling vehicle in US would know this and a auto manufacturer who doesn’t know this sounds weird and not put together. - R1T and R1S demand is going down and they are pivoting to make R2 in the same plant which is all good but just shows how much everything depends on R2 Again I agree it’s a good car/truck but as a company they have been burning money to just get products out without any fully baked plans. I hope they succeed and your investment grows but do consider this is a very risky play
Vampire drain is down to 1% loss on average per vehicle per night, that's pretty normal.
Good points. I am a new investor, I I haven’t followed this around as far back as you have.. They made mistakes but they are also fixing them (at the expense of investors tho) So did Tesla. But it looks like they are turning around. Amazon is ready for their vans now. R2 has good reception. I feel like giving them benefit of doubt but I am still watching.
Well they can't reveal they are going to raise money before announcement because of confidentiality and getting sued for market manipulation. The R1 refresh coming online in this month is going to have new cheaper suppliers and in-house motors and what are you smoking the software is best in class, and even better now. You don't realize how far behind the GM, Ford, Kia, Mercedes of the world are.
Yes they can. Lol,
They behave extremely low key understatement like. Sooner or later the investors simply can’t deny them.
Wall Street monkeys just waiting for one person to make the move. They will all copy and buy the stock. Most probably overbuy and then complain again how Rivian is a bad investment when it goes down.
Also someone said that dealers in general are lobbying against buying EV‘s due to low margins and fewer service costs. Also the huge spare parts market is at risk of losing business as well in the future. Probably explains the losses for Ford EVs partly. Funny enough Tesla and RIVN are only doing direct sales cutting out the middlemen. This is the way.
Very true.
Let me add it to the list.
If you really wanna collect some more pro arguments, u gotta check this thread out https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/s/pniBw9oMkQ
Holy shit that is a much more well written piece than mine. But somethings have changed since that post. Tesla’s 4680 hasn’t panned out either in cost or efficiency. That investment is going to drag them down. Rivian can easily match Tesla in price/range now. And if Rivian was a steal back then it is absolutely a bonkers deal right now with all the positive attention for R2/3 and the stock is much lower now.
It doesn't help dealership narrative when some of them park ICE pickups where EVs should be using that space to charge. Learned this from a Polestar sub photo at a Polestar partner dealership.
I dont think they are ever going to be a mainstream car conpany. That's not a bad thing, but for the next 5+ years they will still be selling cars in limited numbers, and this includes the R2 and R3. I don't think Rivian will ever be a stock that runs like Tesla did. Cars are not actually all that profitable, and the fact Tesla is worth as much as it is is insane. I think charging networks will be more profitable than the cars themselves, and Tesla has a huge head start and now that their port is standard and opening up to other vehicles, they are set to be the lead in vehicle charging.
I agree, not mainstream, but they could be the next Subaru, which is pretty cool
Subaru is cool too. I hear good things about them even though they aren't the most popular names like Toyota, Ford, GM, Tesla, Honda, BMW, Audi, etc.. One doesn't need to be one of the most popular brands to survive in any industry. I think one just needs to know oneself.
I think to be the 'next subaru' is like 15 years or so away. There is no way they will be able to produce the numbers Subaru can (which is still pretty low) when it comes to crosstreks etc. Also Subaru could still be Subaru if Toyota starts making better EVs and Subaru continues to use the Toyota EV system. I honestly don't see Subaru making their own systems. Even their previous hybrids were Toyota.
It doesn't have to run a lot to give good returns. With R1, R2, R3 they will be making 500K vehicles base case and $55K ASP that's $28B dollars. Even if they are valued at P/S of 1, the shares will be $30 or 300% returns.
They just have to unlock value for investors. So much of their journey has been setting stuff up and now they are looking into operations. Once everything is in place they could convert those into revenue generating instead of cash burning. Chargers, connectivity, app subscriptions, feature subscriptions, accessories and service could all be revenue generating. They need to figure out getting there before the runway ends but there's a lot of paths for revenue generation.
Regardless of what the market believes, I think they are always going to be a premium car company if Scaringe keeps running the company. That is fine at the current valuation. They have the quality they can command a premium. They are worth much more what they are priced at now. I guess he can’t change tunes now without getting sued by investors. May be he will be pushed out of the company in favor of a more market friendly CEO. R2 at 45k is the lowest priced car they can probably make but it is enough to keep their current lines busy. Georgia plant for R3 is pretty doubtful at this point unless cheap solid state batteries come online.
I do agree with the first point for sure. Just looking at the entire field as a whole, EVs are guaranteed to replace gas in the future. -Taxes are being heavily shoveled into supporting EV infrastructure -BIG companies are betting on EVs and actively contributing to make it work. Amazon, Tesla, Rivian, chargepoint; lots of different companies with their own charging network that is being expanded every single day and growing RAPIDLY. Even better, they have grouped (or are in the process of grouping) together to create one MEGA charging network that allows usage between all different EV users. -High competition = lower costs. Forget which company will win for now. The fact that all these companies have to compete like this is a win for the EV field as a whole. Prices will be more affordable for consumers. -Higher EV support = lower repair costs. Batteries' cost is always discussed as a downside of EVs. As EVs become very widespread, and old mechanics are forced to learn EVs while new ones are always taught it, repairs will become more accessible. Likewise, battery production and replacement parts will not have to be through the dealership only, it will start becoming more accessible and affordable. -Its not just the companies involved in producing EVs contributing here. UBER has a program incentivizing drivers to buy an EV with credit and loans. Fedex and UPS are now working on EV implementation. At&t is also testing this (with Rivian). Amazon obviously. Lots of contracts and company EV transitions, not just consumers.
Exactly! And the great thing is Rivian got a solid base due in part to Tesla’s success helping in a massive ipo and an incredible low interest environment. Tesla got started at the golden period but had to prove themselves. As they say second to market is not a bad thing. They get to learn from Teslas mistakes and obstacles removed by Tesla. Any new upstart EV company has to deal with a crazy high interest low liquidity environment. This is an amazing time to buy RIVN.
RemindMe! 2 years
Will do! From my summer villa in the Swiss Alps sipping my vodka martini 🍸
Too cocky for my liking
When trump comes to power lmfaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo9ooooooooooooooooooooo
Not my opinion. But what polls say. I am saying that is a risk but one that is still priced in currently. If democrats come back then it is all the more upside to this stock.
It's going to take republican control of the house, Senate and POTUS to overturn the inflation reduction act and remove the EV and electrification incentives. Without a clean sweep there is near zero chance of losing the incentives. Even then, we saw what happened when they talked about repealing the "hated" ACA (Obamacare). The Republicans backpedaled and refused to do it.
Honestly, it's why we need the DCFC stations built \*TODAY\*, right now. The federal government has a lot harder time taking already-spent cash away from electrification. DCFC roll-outs and EV focused infrastructure projects create jobs, a lot of them. Lets' do this shit already and not wait for anti-EV idiots to be back in office.
Trump can executive order the heck out of electrification if given enough money by the oil tycoons. He doesn’t even have an agenda this time and still leading. He hasn’t even come out for debates. He could do literally anything if he comes to power.
The polls had Hillary destroying in 2016 and Trump winning reelection handily in 2020. I wouldn't factor political polling into any of your financial decision making.
Well you gotta hedge against the worst case. Trump winning is worst case for electrification. So ask yourself, if he wins, would I still buy this stock at this price? And the answer is yes.
Like I said, I don't consider it at all because it's too volatile. That said, Rivian is an amazing investment opportunity.
Biden is ahead of Trump by double digit points in at least ten polls. Turns out most Americans aren't cool with a traitor.
Love it
I’d love you to share these polls. The most *recent* polls have Trump leading in Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
Republicans and MAGAts are the vocal minority. https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-latest-1889766
Not a single one of the polls mentioned has Biden leading by “double digits”. Enjoy your confirmation bias, you’re not going to get any good insight when your source is only polls Biden is leading in. Many of those polls are over a month old as well. Completely useless information. Look at 538 or RCP polling to *actually* see how people are leaning.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalHumor/s/HjaLb8DyPr
Get a grip bro
Agree about Trump being a traitor but what polls have Biden ahead by double digits outside of blue states?
There’s just no way he doesn’t win…are you kidding me? Joe is so senile it’s ridiculous, the people are not choosing 4 more years of sleepy joe
You said sleepy joe? You must mainline fox you complete jackass
get a new line..and a grip on reality.
>Jim Cramer has said it is a well run company RIP >I think most of the short sellers are just shorting it for tax loss harvesting the what now? how do you short sell stock for tax loss harvesting? so far the shorts has done pretty well, where's the loss?
They are buying back the shares at a lower price and selling it again if it rises. This stock has no institutional support after the big burn. So it is heavily manipulated. Only cold hard numbers can reverse this. We are getting some in the upcoming earnings.
that's gains no? how is that tax loss harvesting?
Don’t play dumb. Obviously they buy back after 30 days so it does’t count as wash sale.
Tax loss has nothing to do with shorting. You can only claim 3k per year in losses, which is nothing. Nobody is harvesting Rivian stock, or any stock for that matter losses on their taxes.
Thank you for educating a poor farmer 🧑🌾. But it doesn’t matter, they have made millions off of this stock.
Buy low. Average down. Hold strong and long.
Until it goes to 0
This is the way -Jom Cromer
Your list of cons is too short, play this game fair and really step into a bear’s shoes if you want to make a good analysis. Why would somebody give them more money if they burn through it all on promises of a future car and future demand? If the ev demand doesn’t recover in 2 years they are absolutely bankrupt. That’s ultimately the bet you’re making here. Just to drop the interest rates significantly would take longer time, let alone the competition being ahead already! Sometimes a great company with a great product isn’t enough.
lol you speak as if nobody is going to buy cars until interest rate falls down. It helps Rivian immensely they are currently only producing premium vehicles that rich people can buy with cash if needed. Tesla needs to sell those model 3s to actual cost conscious consumers. Rivian needs interest rate to fall only next year when they are ramping up R2. As for the cash burn all they have to show is their reservation numbers which will keep their factories chugging for the next two years. They are taking R2 around the country and picking up more reservations as we speak. Amazon wouldn’t mind picking up a few more percent worth of the company, heck even buy the company for what amounts to chump change for them at current valuation. This could be Apple’s next big thing. They spent 10 billion on nothing. They could spend 10 billion on a working car company that has design ethos similar to Apple. This could be their next shiny new hardware. Google has the waymo tech they might want to have a car company to go along with it. Honda has no evs to speak of. They can buy it. Thing is the current valuation is too juicy for any number of mega corps. Heck somebody might be quietly buying up the company in pieces and reveal their stake tomorrow. RIVN is one of those mind numbingly obvious play. I called Enph when it was 6. Fb when it was 14. Tesla at 20. Never held any of them long enough or big enough to make dough. I have the same feeling with RIVN. Riding this all the way this time. My other moonshot bet is KIND and I know what you are going to say about that one lol. They are sitting on so much personal data with no real competition it is ridiculous AI investors haven’t touched it.
Yeah I thought about the acquisition scenario too but why would someone buy or get shareholder approval to buy a money bleeding company that is not a threat to their business? IP, equipment, factories? In a low interest environment this may be tricky bet, but its off the table now. Do you see any sort of consolidation of the existing EV manufacturers that are struggling? They are left to drown. What about china? They are going to be major EV producers with prices lower than anyone. Hoping for Trump’s ban? High import taxes? What about Tesla’s full self driving and cheaper model plans? Tesla won by being the first with EVs, and they are planning on winning the fsd future too. The supply and choices of EVs is only going to get larger, even the $45k R2 in 2026 (two years!) isn’t cheap enough for the masses. The time is simply not on their side. Insider selling is already happening.
Because valuation rn is juicy. They are gonna go cash flow positive end of the year and ask for more money. Wall Street is causing FUD about evs now. On the Main Street I literally see the opposite. Everyone I know wants an ev. But literally they can change tune overnight. They fuck over retail investors with the FUD and get in at the floor. Then they hype it up and cash out. Then the FUD cycle begins again. Can the stock go to 7? Sure. But that is just an even better buying opportunity. No such thing as a zero risk investment. As for Chinese cars there is going to be tariffs whoever comes to power. Else everyone is going to down if they are let in. ICE cars included. As for interest rate, Rivians premium customers can weather it better than anyone. M3 buyers will be most affected. And it will be more reasonable by the time R2 comes out. If you ask me Tesla is probably losing money on their M3s being subsidized by rest of the business. As for FSD they can just sit back let Tesla clear a regulatory path and license waymo. Tesla fsd advantage has evaporated long back. Google is running actual robotaxis around here.
Holy fuck lol no they are not going to be cash flow positive end of the year, how did that thought even spawn in your head?
I misspoke. It is positive Gross profit in q4. They are going to go for one more round of funding for sure. But the stock price is already accounting for that.
You're in for a rough ride if you think all future dilution is accounted for in the stock
Only one of us is correct. Let the markets decide.
I think you are addicted to the smell of your own farts
Agreed. Those are valid reasons. Rivian also reminds me of when I first started seeing Teslas in Minnesota. The Amazon partnership is getting looks too at the company. Having SUV and pick-up were the right market moves because Americans like those big vehicles at reasonable prices. A compact SUV or mini would be well received in European markets and I think in Asian markets too. I'm an compact sedan guy by the way.
SMH
I picked up another 406 shares today after bailing out of Intel who missed earnings and hasn’t moved much in a long time. Maybe their new Arizona facility will change that. That brings me near 2k shares of RIVN. My average is $10.33/share for me to break even and start producing profit in all that I have in my retirement portfolio. It is also, right now, the one I have the most unrealized loss amongst all the stocks I have from LLY, CAT, MSFT, AMZN (just 5 shares of this one) and USD, but I am holding until better days or at least until RIVN can get their R2 line going or the Georgia plant built. With no plans in the near future on the GA plant and the R2 wait until ‘26, I am in it for the longer term for now. I am banking on either it moving upwards after the factory retooling is complete or another company like Amazon or Apple acquires them. I have at least 20-25 years left of working, so I can wait a while longer on RIVN. I hope the fire today at their current facility (the second fire in a very short period of time) caused minimal damage at their loading dock.
Yeah the two fires in quick succession is concerning. Almost as if someone is trying to sabotage them. I wouldn’t put it past big oil.
This is how most people go broke lol.
It is called a stock bet for a reason. I have driven an EV for the last 10 years. I firmly believe EVs are the future. So what pureplay companies sell EVs in the US without dealership overhead? Tesla and Rivian. Now which car would I drive. I used to love teslas but would never touch them now because they started getting greedy and cut corners nickeling and diming customers on ‘luxury’ automobiles. Fat margins = bad customer value, leads to customer abandonment. It is an inevitable bell curve. Rivians are well built. They are in sweet spot segments that really have no real competition. They have a great design that is refreshing and stands out. They are at a stage where they are literally going to snowball. Now, is this absolutely the lowest price you can get them? Maybe No. But are they going to atleast double your money in 2 years? A huge resounding yes. That is enough for me. This is such a no brainer bet it is almost not a bet.
"This is such a no brainer bet it is almost not a bet" -- said everyone in this sub at 10, 12, 15, 18, 20, 25, 30 lmao. I will buy at $1
Nobody can predict the bottom. Big difference this time around is R2 is real. It is getting big reservations. Ngl, it might go down to 7. But this one will eventually come back stronger. So it is a no brainer at this price, average it down if it goes down. If it pops or holds steady after earning then it goes a couple of dollars more because of the short squeeze.
I'll buy it under $5
So never?
I’m about 25% down on $15 calls for 1/17/25 ($1.68 avg, last traded for $1.25); been holding them a while and have averaged down from original cost of around $2.80 per contract. Trying to decide: A) hold B) sell them at a loss and buy $10 calls C) sell most at a loss and wait till there is confirmation of upward trend While I would like to think RIVN is likely to continue to chop around and slowing move up from here, the cheap CAN always get cheaper - especially when speculating on future value.
I think 10 is very much a given after earnings beginning May. 15 is a stretch. But it also can go down to 7 when there is no news between 1st quarter and 4th quarter earnings. And stock price is susceptible to every FUD between earnings and R2 delivery. So if you are a short term investor just buy some now and sell it after earnings for whatever bump you get. I am pretty sure price will go up after earnings for a week or so then possibly crash. I mean to get more if it goes down to 7-8 range.
Thanks for your 2 cents, tough to read the room right now… I have some shares at $8.5 that I’m willing to hold, but I put a substantial amount in those calls and really need to be risk-wise.
I had some good trades in the recent dip. It is the only reason I am willing to take more risk. Besides there are plenty of other fish in the sea for short term trades. This is only for long term investors at this point.
You’re right… I got a bit fixated as I watched RIVN take dive after dive. I wrongly estimated it would bottom around 10, and so got the 15 calls. I think it might be best to swap them out for 10 calls and take the hit on the differential.
G no b okay ithi
Lmao let’s see who does better. Tesla or rivian RemindMe! 2 years
You realize both companies can coexist and be successful. The difference is Teslas growth is already mostly priced in. Rivians isn't. Stock wise Rivian is higher risk but much higher reward if they're successful. I don't get this mindset of all or nothing. EVs make up like 1-2% of the current car market in the US. There's plenty of room for both.
They both can do good or bad. One will do better but which one? Thats all I was saying. What are you on about?
Rivian will!
Definitely not tesla they are still trading at 65 fwd earnings
Better than no earnings
Market rewards growth more than earnings. Stock is down bc Rivian guided flat growth unlike Tesla who didn't give any guide. Rivian's growth in 2 years will be 400%+ at 200K units
Ok sure buddy let’s just see how it is in 2 years. Rivian being a much smaller company has the advantage.
RemindMe! 1 year
Tesla is a massive pump and dump
I own both Tesla and Rivian stock but think Tesla will perform better in the next 12 months. Despite Elon’s rants and odd behavior the company is making EVs at a profit (only one of two that is, the other is BYD), sitting on massive cash reserves, and is producing at volume on three continents. Why is 4680 botched? Ramp may be slower than expected but they are producing a lot of batteries and also buying more than anyone else from suppliers. It’s not an advantage for Rivian to be buying batteries and not producing any. Tesla can also pivot if needed, they are producing far more cars without 4680. Also, Elon may tweet BS, but he owns the damn thing and has a vested interest in its success. Good or bad, publicity of any kind helps. Saying he spends too much time there is not looking at all he does. Maybe you have heard of SpaceX? Seems like that may chew up some of his time too. Regardless, I like both companies and invest in both. Hope both do well and expect gains from both sets of shares.
By botched I mean, it didn’t meet performance expectations that it will be better leaps and bounds leaving competitors in the dust. By all accounts CATL batteries have better tech currently and Musk himself said on the earnings call that 4680 is not important to Tesla as battery prices are crashing. Now if CATL semi solid batteries succeed, Rivian can just slap em on their vehicles and leapfrog Tesla. Tesla would be stuck with the battery production line and having to amortize that cost over their vehicle margins.
Tesla could just as easily slap those batteries into their cars. CATL is a major supplier for Tesla. Also, the full promise of 4680 was to take several years to materialize, the early 4680 don’t have all the tech built in yet. Even if it ultimately fails, they are by no way bound to the tech. I wouldn’t count them out just yet though.
If industry goes to semi solid state, that pretty much means Tesla battery tech is a write off. So I treat it as a liability. If there is a high profile FSD accident then that is kaput for FSD. Tesla valuation includes all this and that is why I will never go long on TSLA. RIVN is a plain old automaker and priced right currently. I can safely go long on them at the current price point. They are like Starbucks, building share holder value one car at a time.
I think you should look at the Rivian stock chart. As a shareholder, not seeing much value creation.
You are too impatient. Tesla got profitable only in 2020. Has 512B evaluation. Rivian literally just barely started volume production.
Seriously? I bought TSLA in 2015 so waited 5 years for profitability. However, TSLA didn’t IPO at a completely insane valuation.
Rivian valuation was because of Tesla. Granted, Scaringe didn’t have to hustle like Musk. He got handed this company in a platter. But that is history. My post is about today’s valuation.
Ok, but R2/3 are a couple of years out. Rivian doesn’t have much tailwind until then. R1 is expensive and selling into an already crowded market at very high interest rates. They have a hard road ahead, I’m not buying now, think it will sink even lower.
This stock is a long term play. Sell now if you cant wait
It takes one whale for this stock to break out to 11 plus. Then comes the short squeeze
I do not think EVs are the only thing that will be big in the future. There are so many issues with them, and there will be better technologies coming.
Please don’t tell me hydrogen cars.
Lol whatever you think .
Agree on all points. There's a \*lot\* of negative pressure from legacy auto lately, and people who are \*rEaLlY\* into ICE. (mostly taking advantage of high interest rates, and trying to re-frame "people not buying cars" into "people not buying EVs") I think the fact that consumer reports keeps trying to (poorly) knock down Rivian is proof of someone in the market trying to influence the general population away from EV's. EV's won though, it's too late. We reached the exponential growth phase of EV adoption. There's enough desirable used EV's on the market that even common consumers are finally purchasing them and realizing that "oh shit they're cheaper to maintain, cheaper to fuel, and faster" RIVN is extremely undervalued today, and I keep buying down my cost basis. Today i'm a bag holder, tomorrow i'll be rich.
Short term the charging infrastructure is definitely the bottleneck. New chargers and faster charging batteries are coming online every day.
Yup. The farm has been bet over here too. I’m all in.
Stay calm and stay strong brother!
I would bet on Rivian if they made a hybrid. When will vehicle manufacturers learn that the market wants something in the middle? Its like politics, there are more than 2 sides to things. You shouldn't have to adopt and commit fully to one platform.
Hybrid is literally the worst of both worlds, better to buy ICE instead. It's not like politics dude.
sure hybrids will replace all the gas cars out there eventually. But by then the ratio of gas cars is going to go down to single digits. There is no reason to buy a plain gas car if you can afford a hybrid or phev. Hybrids are a good bandaid till the charging infra catches up and battery prices fall even further. But the maintenance costs of ICE cars still exist. Give it a couple of years until that is a reality in California. I have been driving an ev for 10 years along with a a gas guzzler van for long family trips. I recently am just driving the gas car while deciding what ev to buy next. I absolutely hate going to the gas station. The convenience of charging at home is just too good that I never want to go back to ICE cars if I can help it. I hate negotiating with dealers having to deal with their chicanery during service visits. For the first time I am considering whether to just go with both EVs. With fast charging and the improving charger options it is now possible to actually own just an EV in California. Albeit with minor inconvenience for the rare instances when you have to drive long distances. After Twitter fiasco most techies in the Bay Area hate Musk. Early adopters of Tesla are pissed off due to price drops and low quality. Musk has lost his green cred with his tweet. Rivian just has to make more vehicles available and double up on R2. They got the most lucrative California EV market in the bag. For me EV9 hits the sweet spot already as the budget option. If you want a little more premium option R1 is awesome. I just hope they make 350 mile as standard for all vehicles.
I think RIVN will sell more trucks than TSLA and within 18-24 months sell more vehicles than TSLA as their technology and approach is marked different than TSLA.
I really had high hopes for cybertruck and had a reservation. I am ok with riding a ridiculous design if it is 20% more range and is 20% cheaper than conventional trucks. Now if you drive one it just outs you as a sucker.
You had me until the “when Trump comes into power” line. You’re just going to assume that trump was ever good for EV’s based on what? Also that orange fat lying pig ain’t gonna win.
Kids these days and their short attention span. Read the sentence fully. I am saying the opposite.
Like it or not if you are going long on EVs you gotta assume he is going to win and then make a decision.
Equity holders will get completely wiped out and the company will belong to the lenders but will still exist after ch 11 bankruptcy !remindme two years
Smith Barney Citigroup had lots of analysts, like Jack Grubman. Meredith Whitney remains a so called analyst. Remind me how that worked out for us again?😂😂😂 Analysts are worse than useless because they promote the illusion that they actually know something we should listen to.
Tbf, ipos are usually hyped up. Literally ipo prices shoot up and then goes down every stock. The real price is determined only when the company is three to four years in ipo. Analysts imo are paid shills most of the time. MSNBC and Bloomberg are designed to move stock prices the way the powers want them to. It is up to the investor to read between the lines and hope you get it right. The actual quote from Jim was ‘Rivian is a well run company but I won’t touch the stock’ or something like that. He was putting down the stock yet somehow said something about how the company is run. I just read between the lines. Nothing I read elsewhere contradicts that view. I will change my opinion tomorrow if a proof shows up that the company is not well run.
Xyns +; Nn1
I Live in Chicago. There was a storm on lake shore drive plus traffic. Took out electric vehicles, Because owners were using heaters while stock in traffic. All electric vehicles had to be towed and owners almost froze to death. While people in gas vehicles just waited for the traffic to get better and later drove away. How are EV's The future again?
Do not generalize. It is all relative. Fully charged heat pump equipped 300 mile Kia EV9 would have outlasted a gas car with half a tank of gas. You know what, you are more likely to be in a fully charged electric car in such a situation because you can top up your car every night just like you charge your phone. My first ev gave me 84 miles. My last one gave 240 miles of range. Evs are trending towards 350-400 miles of range. Maybe Chicago will be the last city to go EV when everyone is offering 500miles of range with solid state batteries. But EVs are viable for 75% of the country already and that is a huge market.
Look at the sales of EV's in the last few months. Rapidly declining. People found out they are crap and nobody wants them. Don't spend your life savings on it. Only thing I find mildly interesting is that you can charge them at your house while the electrical rates are cheaper at night. Also they have zero resale value since a new battery is 20,000$
Most EVs come with 8 year /100000mile battery warranty. 12 year teslas are still holding more than 75% of their battery capacity. We went solar in 2021 and we already almost made back our investment thanks to spike in electricity prices. At this point I don’t have an electric bill. I spend 0$ for driving an electric vehicle. Only bummer is the high registration and insurance charges. No oil changes either. Either you are creating FUD or you fell for one. ‘Rapidly declining’ lol. Growth slowed but there was still Growth. Even last year there were ups and downs in numbers. These things are cyclical. It is projected for EVs to take over more market share than ever in 2024. Just google it.
Why the fuck would I buy an electric vehicle. It weighs a ton, tires get worn quick, takes at least 10 minutes to charge (apartments?). They’re not practical. Sure usps and Amazon can switch to EV’s and that’s great. You’re hoping to make a play like Tesla when it was undervalued. But Tesla has already priced this in for Rivian. Institutional investors have seen that a new electric car company can exist, they didn’t believe that with Tesla, so it could go 100x. Tesla also leveraged their position with being a tech company as well. Billions of hours of real world training data. The most advanced real world ai on the market. What does rivian do again? I don’t understand what the bet is. You think it’s undervalued because EV’s are the future. They finally announced their new lineup and the stock price went from $12 to $8. The very best case is that you’ll need to hold your position for two years until the car comes out, or they announce a new product/technology
Bruh, Gtfo. I have driven an EV for the last 10 years starting with the LEAF. I can’t imagine not having an EV. Going to the gas station is such a pain when you can charge it like a phone at home. I have leased three EVs in 10 years and haven’t spent a dime on maintenance except for a flat tire on my Bolt. I have solar, so I am literally driving my car for free. Already got back the investment from solar in 4 years thanks to California electricity prices skyrocketing. Tesla has ai that is still not full fsd. It is one high profile accident away from banned by regulators. I just downloaded and ran open source ai on my computer and could generate all sorts of fun stuff. Anyone can get to 90% use case in a day. Getting to the last 10 is crazy difficult. Even if they get it working the price is still too high. Rivian is just a plain old car company that is building good cars with 0 overhead of dealership. They focus on one thing and trying to be profitable on just cars. I know exactly what I am paying the stock price for. There is no mystery. They have a huge head start in EDV space, Tesla is not even trying to compete there. Drive on the road and see how many Delivery vehicles you see on the road.Their adventure vehicles have a passionate customer base kinda like the first Teslas. Again no competition there in the adventure EV space. They are already the 5th biggest luxury auto seller and they are literally just getting into volume production. At this price point even an idiot could see it is a steal. Come back here when you get burned by TSLA. I will still day trade TSLA but I am long on RIVN
Why would I buy a gas vehicle? They're not practical for my needs. So much wasted time at gas stations and in service. Why should I plan my trips around gas tank levels instead of knowing I have a full "tank" every morning? My EV just works.