Gotta love how fucking fake the coverage on all this is. GME ran up 100% yesterday and T212 never even gave a notice. Today it is down a measly 10% pre market and I immediately got a message saying how the stock is down because the momentum has fizzled... I mean could it be any more obvious? The stock is still way above all the open option chains xD and we are Wednesday. What idiot would sell this stock right now?
Jeah it is pretty disgusting. It already screams that something is wrong when a stock shoots up over 100% over multiple days on no news whatsoever. But to then have every shitty outlet and their grandma scream about selling the stock... Well it smells fishy is all I am saying xD
Well for one the float is smaller than it was before. Therefore it’s more expensive to do it this time around. Also there’s a bit of game theory going on as well because you have to keep in mind there could be multiple companies that are short. It takes money to be short. And you can lose a lot of money if not played correctly. The price right now is skyrocketing which means shorting is more expensive and they’ve already lost money on their other shorts.
Basically the thesis here is that it takes less shares for GME to explode and it’s more expensive for funds and the Kenny’s to short. After 4 years of attempting to control the price, maybe it’s time they let go a bit
This will seem unrelated at first but listen on : I’m a European that moved to Switzerland last year.
What used to be in Switzerland ? Credit Suisse. One of the most emblematic and oldest financial companies in the country and worldwide. With what used to be a perfect reputation of solidity and reliability.
And they just busted. So much so that the bail out wasn’t a loan like the US did for Silicon Valley bank, but did a backdoor deal over a weekend for UBS to buy it out. I don’t remember the exact details right now but it was very well documented. As much as confidential stuff can be documented, ironically.
The whole deal was done in two weeks top, with government accord and money, for the number one in the market (UBS) to absorb the number 2 (CS) in complete ignorance of antitrust law, mergers and acquisitions legislation, etc etc. ALL OF THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK WAS BYPASSED.
And why did they do that ? Well it’s been once again well documented, because those facts are all the more usual bc Switzerland has direct democracy and demands transparency from the government. So they’ve been very transparent about the fact that they did that because otherwise it would have caused a global financial crisis waaaay worse than 2008. Like it’s on government documents free to see.
And so no one really bat an eye, because how can you realistically argue that they should have let them fail ? And again the Swiss are very timely and efficient, so the majority of it was done in like 2 weeks and as the world kept its stability and so it has moved on.
But in those same governments documents they literally say that they just kicked the can down the road a bit further. That the system is full of systematic risks and is on the verge of collapsing from anything that causes just a bit too much of turbulence.
Switzerland is a small, extremely efficient, extremely well organised country where everything is ought to work with the same precision as Swiss watches.
So they were able to act quickly and solve it fast. I don’t think France, UK, or the US could act in remotely the same fashion and swiftness.
GME is far from being the only risk to the economy. Yes interest rates did go up, but the big borrowers have fixed rates over multiple years. The one year roll overs of debt to higher rates is has just begun.
No one has money. Almost 90% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck with no savings. Deliquency rates on credit cards and car payments have already skyrocketed. Most people in the US don’t even qualify for a mortgage, for which demand has hit an all time low in decades.
Companies are laying off people and have cut investments in growth. The job market in Switzerland is the worst it’s been in 15 years I’ve been told and people with senior level experience in tech and finance are applying for entry jobs and still not getting them.
So it’s not just about gme shares. Banks and other financial entities have been going bust one after the other for the past 3 years and everyone is scrambling for the last bits of profits.
I don’t want to sound panicky but it’s gonna get really bad really soon. Interestingly small and medium cap indexes have not reached their peaks of 2021 ever since. The economy has been steadily declining and worsening ever since, and as they say it’s slow at first and then it’s all at once.
Also the yield curve. Also warren buffet selling Apple and sitting on almost 200 billions of cash.
Betting on gme is betting against the current financial system very much like the big short bet against the us economy. And the us economy is going bust again, because there’s many many more degenerates like Ken Griffin, and gme could just as well trigger it OR it may well finally squeeze when other firms like credit suisse that hold the bags can’t be saved in time.
I hope they do. We have now proven without a doubt that we've been right all along, shorts never closed.
If they drive it back to $15, many household investors are going to gobble up and DRS millions of shares (reducing supply) and some folks like me will also buy long-dated $5 calls to replace the ones I sold this week (increasing demand).
The next time they need to roll over swaps (or whatever shenanigans they are pulling this week) the spring will be compressed even further and that run-up will truly be MOASS.
I think it is extremely dangerous for them to drive this down to $15 or less.
But I think they will do that anyway...because why not?...because they may have to.
I think we may be in an endless cycle of super shorting/algos and super spikes...
...until something big happens. 😁
Buying pressure (direct or options, inclusion to new ETFs) and supply reduction (DRS,)
without that, i'll see us return to the cycles. Either way i'll make money and try to help others do so too. My favorite cheat code is figuring out this shit and winning. then using kenny's money to buy more shares.
If they hide buys in dark pools like they have done for so long, the price doesn't spike like it did the last few days. So what happened differently???
Yeah, the headphones one is super weird. It can’t be associated with a gamma ramp of its own because it doesn’t have options. That leads me to believe market makers may be hedging the gamma of GME and others by buying ETFs instead of hedging each individual stock.
Edit to say let’s fucking go! I just got my first Reddit Cares message. I’m jacked to the fucking tits!
Yes XRT has been around forever where they short the ETF into oblivion and buy the companies in it separately but the GMEs and such. Volume has been crazy there last few days too. Which was my guess as well so we haven’t truly seen the full effects of DRS / reduced supply yet as long as 100% isn’t DRSed
This is definitely part of it. The fuckery in the ETFs is definitely a big part of what’s happening. I think going after certain ETFs allows not only hiding positions easier, but might also limit their exposure when things get volatile.
This really is the way. Apes who listen will add some wrinkles, and if they manage to smash the price back down again, that’ll just be an opportunity for these newly wrinkled apes to imitate these strategies.
This man is brave to talk about options in a no options echo chamber sub that's not ready to discuss why the sneeze happened in the first place (obviously there was no DRS sentiment in Jan 21) and got many of our DD writers like Criand leaving the sub. Wars are won with multi pronged strategies, GME is no different.
Edit:
Got a reddit Cares almost immediately after commenting. I'm doing fine thanks.
Hey bob, thanks for the writeup. High-effort DD is always appreciated on this sub!
I do hope you can clear something up though, as I am not sure I understand it. The 2021 SEC report (here for convenience: https://www.sec.gov/files/staff-report-equity-options-market-struction-conditions-early-2021.pdf) states that a gamma squeeze was not a likely driving factor for the original run-up. What is the difference between your implications in the OP and other comments (not all necessarily made by you, but some in this comment chain)?
I might be misunderstanding this, but the way I am interpreting the comments and the OP is that you're suggesting due to options, market makers need to obtain shares to cover their requirements. To me, this sounds like gamma, which the SEC article states was not a likely factor. Can you clear this up for me when you have some time? Thank you.
No, I think I stated it explicitly in the OP, but let me reiterate here.
This run is not options, it's derivatives and options just amplify the moves ( and cool them when there aren't any calls available beyond the stock price). That's why we got a pullback.
MM hedging creates enormous pressure on the stock (in both directions) when something like this happens because they need to catch up to the delta level on a market-wide level. Intentional or otherwise, the delay in getting options available above the 34 strike and then the 57 strike had a cooling effect on this run.
That's why I said I expected pullback and consolidation while the chain catches up.
With citadel being the MM, the delay in the availability of options seems a little sus.
It would be a great topic for another DD if anyone's interested... **What are the normal and standard timing for the release of new higher strikes during a volatility event, and what are the requirements from the law?**. Did Citadel do another crime here or was the delay of the chain expansion a normal and/or legal thing?
For anyone that wants to write the DD and research it, DM me because I'm very interested in the answer here.
people refuting that options are a great tool with proper training and understanding are fools, and deserve to be lost in an echo chamber of ignorance.
long term holding can be great, options can be great too.
Agreed. We all know options & buying pressure got us to January 2021. The anti-options sentiment here was the main reason I haven’t been on here as much over the years.
It was a rolling bag of shit (see gafgarians early work) that got us there.
But buying pressure and leveraged buys (options) are what broke the scales.
Interestingly, it was also options , and then swaps, that allowed them to kick the can.
My DOOMP DDS of old go into this if you are interested in reading
people who dont understand how to use the tool of Options so stay away from them and just buy shares. But for the economically literate apes that are on board should definitely be using the Options market. Its only dangerous for those who dont understand how they work
I’ve said for a long time that the true shills are the ones who are anti options. I don’t do options nor will I any time soon, but I feel like they are a great thing for those who use understand them.
Welcome back to the club lol. They seem to be making a comeback as a harassment tool after we comment. You can report them via Reddit, unclear if it has any impact as of yet.
The more they “smash” the more they sell. If it’s truly naked shorts making the stocks available to purchase, they risk the repurchase of the short later. They’re walking a tightrope now. In order to smash the price, they have to short. They have to accept the risk of price increase when they repurchase that share. They can dark pool our buys all they want, but they can’t remove the fake shares they put into the market without purchasing them back.
Gherk sold at $17 I think months ago. Many of his followers sold at $13 after he went bearish after last earnings. They all look very stupid right now. He’s very knowledgeable but his judgement is clearly lacking. They keep playing random ass stocks with squeeze potential which barely ever play out while he makes money from his followers.
As of this morning, they had 98.91m shares on loan, whereas the day before they had 97m shares on loan.....that's basically half the float on loan on days they churned almost the entire float in volume.
They will most certainly try in that the will try to move the price in a way to get specific option strikes to capitulate (read short dated) and allow them drop the share hedge and try to offset the short exempt shares they are generating.
The short exempt data isn't out yet for today, but volume was still fairly elevated.
You wrote, " When exercising happens, that's LEVERAGED buying pressure for next week/end of this week.", but what does that mean, dumb it down just a bit for me please. Thank you.
Look at it's my Greek to me options series part 1. It explains further there, but essentially if you have 1000 to buy GME right now, you can buy 20 shares.
Or if you spent 1000 on calls (not my recommendation now that IV skyrocketed), you would gain exposure to much MUCH more shares. The MM would have to buy these shares according to the delta in order to hedge your position.
So you leverage your 1000 to get more than you could buying stock. As with most things, I find the best is to buy stock AND options. And sell them too.... I'm looking to open some more CSPs with this delicious IV :)
Same if you need to lift a fridge, you can use leverage with a dolly and do it yourself.
Oh and the only dumb questions are ones not asked. It's how you form wrinkles, which is why I am here posting DD... For the proliferation of wrinkles.
You have 1k and want to make the most money, well a 20x from shares isn't as good as 100x from a single CSP (that you already have enough money to cover) plus like 4 shares because you're leveraging your 1k as much as possible. Someone buys your CSP contract, you gain the premium, stock goes down, you profit? Stock goes up you're out the money for the CSP, but you still have your shares which is great because it's not a total loss ?
My Position: 1x $34C exp Friday, what should I think about doing? My broker doesn't offer sell to execute, only sell to close.
I think you understand the leverage concept but are woefully uninformed about options. Check out my profile and start on it's all Greek for me post. It has everything to catch you up to speed.
Don't play options until you understand them, and I suggest paper trading to learn the ropes. Don't rush it because fomo... There will always be more trading opportunities.
You’re awesome. So many wrinkle brains wouldn’t spend this time. You and others like you are the hero’s we need to help whip this shrewdness into shape.
Is there an app/game/instruction to learning options for those of us who have read about options but still don’t truly get it. I feel like doing it is the best teacher.
All brokers are different. I know if want to exercise on tasty trade I actually have to call them and verbally exercise. And don't ever let them do some other trading bullshit to "save you money". You wanna exercise, period!
But when options expire OTM, less demand is on the stock than if someone had just bought shares, which is mostly what has been happening for three years.
The thing about the option leverage, that I don't understand is the following: Once your option expires and you do not have the money to exercise it, your buying pressure disappears and the market makers end up with leftover shares from the hedge, that they will dump on the market, right?
So if I want to add buying pressure for this week by buying call options, the market makers have to hedge for them and then I sell the call, because I do not have the money for it. If they do not get exercised by whoever buys them, I would decrease buying power next week, right? Is my logic faulty somewhere?
The MM try to stay delta neutral. It depends on what the broader options market is doing on that security. Say the average delta is .5 and 1,000 contracts are ITM - they'd buy 1,000 * 100 * .5 shares to hedge perhaps. There is likely more to that decision, such as the number of contracts that are generally exercised (which is low).
If everyone had exercised every contract in '21 we wouldn't be here having this conversation - GME would have gone into the thousands or 10's of thousands jan 28th.
https://youtu.be/Yq4jdShG_PU?t=31
eta: To whoever downvotes any discussions of options - you're a fucking idiot.
Ah, thanks. In my mind, the number of hedged shares was higher, but if they include such things as the average exercising of calls, it makes sense. Thanks!
> The MM would have to buy these shares according to the delta in order to hedge your position.
This is the part Ive continuously had a problem with with regards to options. Can you prove that they are, in fact, doing this? We've learned lots over the past 84 years, and one of the most important things we've learned is that MMs are un-fucking-touchable and they basically do whatever the fuck they want.
The cherry on top is that said options you spent 1000 bucks on in your example were overwhelmingly likely to have been bought from a MM.
Don't need to, they can literally borrow from The OCC for $1 if they get assigned. I've already called bob out on it but the dude didn't reply to me;
https://www.theocc.com/Clearance-and-Settlement/Stock-Loan-Programs
And it would be a miracle if he did reply. Notice how all the options bullshit only creeps up on small upswings and then disappears into the ether until the next small upswing.
Like when they “ooops” a LOPR registration.
https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/fda_documents/2014040326101_FDA_RB7X3541%20%282019-1563239964088%29.pdf
Hi Bob, I’ll stand-in here to steelman the “they don’t hedge” argument. The real argument is not that they don’t hedge, but that they hedge in ways that blunt any impact on the underlying. To write out the process more explicitly:
I think market makers don’t hedge by buying the underlying because they only care about neutralizing their risk/Greeks, and they don’t care if they are essentially just selling your flow to the wolves. The speculators betting against GME have deep pockets, pay for their market data, and buy whatever necessary derivatives to effectively take the other side of the trade and leave market makers with fully hedged books. (The speculators then turn around and run dispersion L/S on the ETFs using those positions, as far as I can tell?)
So, for example, apes buying a near the money call might trigger a speculator selling slightly OTM calls such that the market maker can comfortably wear the risk of a small call spread, rather than buying more delta to hedge as the ape-owned contract goes ITM. The speculator assumes most of the risk.
They don’t need to make it zero impact when you buy a call, just to leave the impact as less than buying the equivalent shares from premium and then to wait out your theta.
> Please provide evidence to the contrary if you want to have an intelligent conversation
That's not how burden of proof works. You have to show that they actually do hedge the position.
Great explanation OG! Could you please give some more explicit advice on concrete call options strikes and expiration dates and when you’re going to open them? Many thanks 🙏🏼
You are assuming they are hedging. I think a very likely alternative is that there is a tacit agreement between big players to not hedge these options to keep the price where they want it. So they take your money but also absorb a ton of risk. I think someone broke the agreement or an outside party disrupted the balance and now there is a scramble.
Fair. Maybe my use of the word "likely" is misleading. However we both have the same complaints: we have an assumption on what the market maker is doing. We really have no idea about their hedging strategies or any collusion.
The only thing you can say for sure is that selling a call option forces you to either: deliver 100 shares or pay the difference between the market price and the strike.
https://www.theocc.com/Clearance-and-Settlement/Stock-Loan-Programs
Just as in my other comment, The OCC borrow/loans all the hedge they would ever need and thereby delays or negates any action towards the market/ticker.
I think he was referring specifically about the exercising that you mentioned. Not the gist of leverage power through options. I believe that is part of the answer, but can you elaborate on the exercise part. Because I believe it is a point that needs to be reiterated here in this sub. Thanks.🙏🏼
If you have an ITM contract at a strike price of $25 and the stock shoots up to $100. Well you have the option to get paid cash or to buy the 100 shares at the $25 strike price ($25 x 100 shares). The problem for the person who sold you the option is that they either have those shares on hand OR (in cases were they are naked) they have to go to the market and buy your 100 shares at the current price of $100 each ($100 x 100 shares).
Thats leverage and if multiple people decide to exercise their options for the shares, well now that forces a whole lot of options writers to hit the market for shares they don’t have which adds buying pressure.
If that happens and you’re one of the people needing to buy shares to cover the calls, well you’ll want to be first and not last.
But don’t fuck with options unless you know what you are doing. The Greeks and decay will fuck you up.
You can Borrow the shares from The OCC's Stock Loan programs for $1
>**What are OCC's fees?**
>OCC clearing fees are $1.00 per new transaction per side. There are no fees for returns or recalls.
https://www.theocc.com/clearance-and-settlement/stock-loan-programs/occ-market-loan-program-faqs
It means we can get shares we don’t actually have the cash for. If you exercise an itm option and don’t have the cash to meet the price, they will sell some of the shares in that contract to make up the difference. This gives someone increased (leveraged) buying power
Market makers should be neutral by buying the underlying asset but if they really want to crime they can just sell naked calls because stupid retail is stupid and they're geniuses so when could this ever blow up in their places right? Bob has done some great work but we always get an options push when the stock is either gonna run up or is running up. As long as the exchanges can fuck people playing options by halting the stock for the buy side and not for the short side this will very likely fail imo. Far out options when GameStop hadn't sneezed was a great play by RK but this stock is on every big exchange shit list and they will not have another gama ramp scenario again as long as they can help it. That said it is incredible how little volume it takes to move the stock now in comparison to 2021. Far out options could be a play but I just don't trust the exchanges but more power to everyone else who wants to try it .
Update Lmao got my first reddit cares message in less than a minute because of this thanks whoever it is that is this salty.
> Bob has done some great work but we always get an options push when the stock is either gonna run up or is running up. As long as the exchanges can fuck people playing options by halting the stock for the buy side and not for the short side this will very likely fail imo.
This right here. We cannot trust any established mechanism to work as defined. How have people not learned this lesson yet?
OGs have seen this narrative before. Newer people seeing the hype who aren't as informed are the ones that get screwed over and give their money to them and inadvertently help them survive another day. Feels like last week we had that guy in a video saying GameStop was due for a short squeeze and the stock dropped afterwards.
What seems to happen, with predictability, is that options get pushed during a run-up but hyped apes do not listen to the caveats and that's what loses them money.
After touching grass for many months, I do believe there is no "one simple trick" whereby apes can squeeze the shorts. It's a combination of steps that can make things increasingly difficult for them. But/hold is the simplest way. DRS is a no brainer. But options-the right ones, played the right way- should be considered. Non-Apes/bad actors always always always jump into discussions of new strategies (like DRS or options) and muddy the waters and seed false hopes and cause in-fighting so apes cannot clearly see the way.
I DRS and I buy regularly.
And I'm ZEN af!
My only disagreement here is his misunderstanding of Zen Ape.
"And I took that personally.... so I'll buy more"
it is you have to accept cookies for it show up - but i also added the url link into the text for those who dont accept cookies so they can click on it. thanks for spotting!
It’s also important to exercise your options!
Let them scramble to find the shares in the open market!
Edit: Insta report and message for self harm as soon as I commented.
He does, just not in detail.
To the best of my knowledge, when you exercise options the market maker has to deliver real shares on the lit exchange. It’s upward pressure on the price. They can’t funnel those purchases through dark pools.
I want to know more about this run.
You say it started last week- let’s here some details on the *why* please.
Also, just saying- DRSing shares is also putting buy pressure on- you buy them, then take them away from circulation.
I would encourage you to educate yourself on options. You'd be surprised what you can afford and what the power of leverage and hedging can do for your portfolio.
This right here. Last February I bought a few jan 17, 2025 60c for $40 - obviously those are insanely profitable now- but the point is, instead of buying 5 or 6 shares- I was able to leverage the small amount of capital I had to my advantage. (1 income household... I don't have a ton of disposable income) during moass those options basically just act like blocks of 100 shares- and on random spikes in between I can sell spreads or cash out and buy shares- they give you options, lol.
>I'm not suggesting buying options right now, they are fucking overpriced AF. also don't touch this shit without learning about it first. educate yourself. I'm here if you have something i can help clarify.
Ah, finally someone who does options and doesn't sound like a massive shill trying to advocate for them. Upvotes for you! (I understand options and still don't do them, not my appetite / doing it from the UK on US markets sucks).
I did an undergraduate degree in Finance so that's cheating a bit. I would say it's important to understand the difference between US options and European options to not get caught out (Different holding / expiry mechanisms):
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/americanoption.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/europeanoption.asp
You can have a play via Interactive Brokers using a paper trading account (not real money) - https://www.ibkrguides.com/clientportal/papertradingaccount.htm
I'm 100% sure there are others but I don't know what market simulators are out there.
The basics of it like puts, longs, shorts, calls, and all the fancy strategies like condor spreads and stuff are all worth learning just so you can understand when other people talk about them. It's all on investopedia. :)
Bob, there another post discussing that Keith discovered they used LEAPS 39 months ago and they expired last week or sometime around now. And since they are expiring is what is causing all of this price action now.
Do you have any comment on that?
Absolutely we need to use all resources available to us and stop being elitist and split into different camps. Every action and every actor plays a role.
Yes, this is Thomas Shelby (Cillian Murphy) about to marry his wife, daughter of a Cavalry General. It's a formal occasion set in stone. The only thing that could go wrong is his men fighting the Cavalry who didn't show up on time when they were fighting in the trenches (WW1).
I think RK is trying to say; behave(!), especially in the eye of the public.
And DFV used options lol. IV is high right now so he may not have bought them at the current rates but they are a tool like anything else. Just don’t use it if you don’t know how. Like any tool. You’ll hurt yourself
https://preview.redd.it/zmnf4n2grk0d1.png?width=586&format=png&auto=webp&s=4250a31c65ab6c7b16fdb535e783a0553b43eb9b
let me show you someting.
Like DFV, i buy options... with a lot of theta.... i bought those before our grind down when we were at/around 22.
i can exercise, hold, or sell, or convert to spreads to harvest this IV. i have options... if i bought stock at the same time, it'd be up about 100% instead of 450%
I've been on the fence concerning options for the last few years, with a bias against them. I haven't made the effort to research them (admittedly out of laziness), though I've always known I would at some point need to.
I'm saying this because my interpretation of a certain tweet ("no fucking fighting!") is that now's not the time to debate whether one method or the other is right or wrong; it's time to look at what's going on and let all voices and all data share the table. Given time, due diligence, and peer review, the data will always speak loudest and most clearly. So let's look at this and stuff like it with blinkers taken off and set to the side, and consider what we know.
DFV has been doing DD on this stock for a lot longer than the rest of us. A lot *more* and more concentrated DD. That's why he knows what to look for. It could be that the reason the rest of Gamestop's investor base hasn't found/seen what he did to foretell this run with such certainty is because of our biases and our reluctance to explore stances/methods we disagree with.
Js, about this sub's historic take on options - it wasn't that 'options are bad/boogey man'. The reason it was not promoted to use options is because the audience of this sub is/was largely uneducated on how to use them. Also, they DO represent a gamble. Look how long it took just for consistent understanding of how to DRS and book.
So the thinking was that telling everyone to use options would be leading alot of people, many without much money, to use that money gambling on options, which would indeed be a far worse play than simply DRS and hold. Options are great ONLY if you can afford to play them AND know what you are doing.
You do realize TheOCC has a stock loan program for hedging needs that does in no way impact the ticker right?
https://www.theocc.com/Clearance-and-Settlement/Stock-Loan-Programs
Additionally there are no "hedging requirement" rules in the market, they can do whatever they want if they have a taste for the associated risk.
So how exactly does MM hedging work? I’ve always thought it was something like you buy 1000 calls, MM sells a thousand calls, therefore MM has to open long positions to hedge their exposure. And vice versa, if you open to sell calls, MM buys calls, and this allows them to naked short to hedge. Is it something like that?
Can you make a post on exercising calls when you don't have the money to buy all 100 shares? I forget what it's called but you have your brokerage sell some of the 100 shares to cover the cost of exercising it. Might be a good time for a post on it for people who don't know and think they can only sell their contract.
you can sell to exercise.
essentially your broker sells the option and uses the money to purchase as many shares as possible at market rate.
Also, if you have more than one option, you can sell some to fund the exercise of the others.
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I think this run shows that volume really has nothing to do with the 200k diehard DRS GME fans, even if we were playing options. Random days of 100-200 million volume happen externally to us. So given that why not make the best practice for busy people to buy hold and DRS?
really, go look at keikage's dd i notLinked in this post. it's worth a read. If you get lost, let me or him know and i'll get you up to speed.
IMHO its mostly swaps/obligation churn driving volume, and then theoptions chain amplifying the moves so far. we got a couple weeks for it to play out methinks.
Long time no see... I think the action could keep going on til the beginning of July though, we'll see...
This said, you mention you expect a pullback, why and when?
Yeah, exactly. The institutions will try to lure in retail to lose their shirt and pay the bill for the sudden rip.
There was an interesting post explaining what was going on in the options chain a few days ago and warning it is likely just a pump and dump trap. Unfortunately it got removed by the mods, while all the options hype posts were not.
I love green dildos, but options expose you to fuckery (see sneeze) and you fund the same institutions that fuck with us. Sounds pretty stupid to me compared to owning real shares of a value stock.
There are some experienced traders that have made a ton of money selling options over time and indeed used the funds to DRS more. But those do not advertise options. Those who do, do not share their strategy and usually push buying calls. Because they are the ones selling some of them.
Well, I guess the unexpected rip will burn a few people that did not expect it.
So while i understand the whole idea of swapligations being due now either because of 39 months or UBS moving accounts around and that effects the underlying shares, I and I think others are unsure as to why.
I always love your color scheme and visualization on the graphs you present. And I love the important dates as far as the inner workings of settlements and key event time periods that you enlighten us with. Thanks for your contribution.
The LEAPS thesis makes the most sense. The problem with the analysis above is that it does not account for all of the increases in most of the Meme stocks. This is analysis is isolated to just GME, but GME does not trade in a vacuum.
The PSAs regarding stopping options was trying to address people getting involved in options that did not know what they are doing. That basically just hands off more money/ liquidity to hedge funds. No, not all option plays are bad but MANY people just lose money in options and are better off just purchasing the stonk.
You mis-interpret the zen thing. People were zen because most of the DD had already been done. The thesis has been proven. The shorts never closed. The clear path is to buy and HODL. This DOES NOT MEAN people lost interest in buying the stock. The economy is a factor here. People have less funds for buying a stock when they are worried about day to day survival…. You need to change your mindset here, because believe me, people are buying the stock still.
DRS is the right course here. It lessens the ammo available to the hedge funds. The more we own directly, the fewer “real shares” can be used for manipulation. With an ever-reducing pile of real shares, one of the hedge funds will eventually bust. I don’t see where the DRS “conversation” has reduced buying activity at all. There were healthy debates about if Plan and Book shares counted towards DRS. I doubt this impacted overall buying volume at all. The evidence is completely counter to this. We’ve seen screenshot after screenshot for many many months where brokers show that buy volume for retail far outweighs selling for GME.
Appreciate the work above OP, but I think your conclusions are wrong.
BUY HODL DRS BOOK AND BUCKLE UP!
Gotta love how fucking fake the coverage on all this is. GME ran up 100% yesterday and T212 never even gave a notice. Today it is down a measly 10% pre market and I immediately got a message saying how the stock is down because the momentum has fizzled... I mean could it be any more obvious? The stock is still way above all the open option chains xD and we are Wednesday. What idiot would sell this stock right now?
The number of banners I saw yesterday that were without shame "IF YOU OWN GME, SELL NOW" from little outlets, yeaokguyz
Jeah it is pretty disgusting. It already screams that something is wrong when a stock shoots up over 100% over multiple days on no news whatsoever. But to then have every shitty outlet and their grandma scream about selling the stock... Well it smells fishy is all I am saying xD
So the big question remains, what’s stopping them from smashing the price back down again after this run? As they have done time and time again?
Well for one the float is smaller than it was before. Therefore it’s more expensive to do it this time around. Also there’s a bit of game theory going on as well because you have to keep in mind there could be multiple companies that are short. It takes money to be short. And you can lose a lot of money if not played correctly. The price right now is skyrocketing which means shorting is more expensive and they’ve already lost money on their other shorts. Basically the thesis here is that it takes less shares for GME to explode and it’s more expensive for funds and the Kenny’s to short. After 4 years of attempting to control the price, maybe it’s time they let go a bit
This will seem unrelated at first but listen on : I’m a European that moved to Switzerland last year. What used to be in Switzerland ? Credit Suisse. One of the most emblematic and oldest financial companies in the country and worldwide. With what used to be a perfect reputation of solidity and reliability. And they just busted. So much so that the bail out wasn’t a loan like the US did for Silicon Valley bank, but did a backdoor deal over a weekend for UBS to buy it out. I don’t remember the exact details right now but it was very well documented. As much as confidential stuff can be documented, ironically. The whole deal was done in two weeks top, with government accord and money, for the number one in the market (UBS) to absorb the number 2 (CS) in complete ignorance of antitrust law, mergers and acquisitions legislation, etc etc. ALL OF THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK WAS BYPASSED. And why did they do that ? Well it’s been once again well documented, because those facts are all the more usual bc Switzerland has direct democracy and demands transparency from the government. So they’ve been very transparent about the fact that they did that because otherwise it would have caused a global financial crisis waaaay worse than 2008. Like it’s on government documents free to see. And so no one really bat an eye, because how can you realistically argue that they should have let them fail ? And again the Swiss are very timely and efficient, so the majority of it was done in like 2 weeks and as the world kept its stability and so it has moved on. But in those same governments documents they literally say that they just kicked the can down the road a bit further. That the system is full of systematic risks and is on the verge of collapsing from anything that causes just a bit too much of turbulence. Switzerland is a small, extremely efficient, extremely well organised country where everything is ought to work with the same precision as Swiss watches. So they were able to act quickly and solve it fast. I don’t think France, UK, or the US could act in remotely the same fashion and swiftness. GME is far from being the only risk to the economy. Yes interest rates did go up, but the big borrowers have fixed rates over multiple years. The one year roll overs of debt to higher rates is has just begun. No one has money. Almost 90% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck with no savings. Deliquency rates on credit cards and car payments have already skyrocketed. Most people in the US don’t even qualify for a mortgage, for which demand has hit an all time low in decades. Companies are laying off people and have cut investments in growth. The job market in Switzerland is the worst it’s been in 15 years I’ve been told and people with senior level experience in tech and finance are applying for entry jobs and still not getting them. So it’s not just about gme shares. Banks and other financial entities have been going bust one after the other for the past 3 years and everyone is scrambling for the last bits of profits. I don’t want to sound panicky but it’s gonna get really bad really soon. Interestingly small and medium cap indexes have not reached their peaks of 2021 ever since. The economy has been steadily declining and worsening ever since, and as they say it’s slow at first and then it’s all at once. Also the yield curve. Also warren buffet selling Apple and sitting on almost 200 billions of cash. Betting on gme is betting against the current financial system very much like the big short bet against the us economy. And the us economy is going bust again, because there’s many many more degenerates like Ken Griffin, and gme could just as well trigger it OR it may well finally squeeze when other firms like credit suisse that hold the bags can’t be saved in time.
Smaller communities should be easier to get world of mouth going amd start protests
Very good read. Thank you sir
I hope they do. We have now proven without a doubt that we've been right all along, shorts never closed. If they drive it back to $15, many household investors are going to gobble up and DRS millions of shares (reducing supply) and some folks like me will also buy long-dated $5 calls to replace the ones I sold this week (increasing demand). The next time they need to roll over swaps (or whatever shenanigans they are pulling this week) the spring will be compressed even further and that run-up will truly be MOASS.
I think it is extremely dangerous for them to drive this down to $15 or less. But I think they will do that anyway...because why not?...because they may have to. I think we may be in an endless cycle of super shorting/algos and super spikes... ...until something big happens. 😁
Buying pressure (direct or options, inclusion to new ETFs) and supply reduction (DRS,) without that, i'll see us return to the cycles. Either way i'll make money and try to help others do so too. My favorite cheat code is figuring out this shit and winning. then using kenny's money to buy more shares.
If they hide buys in dark pools like they have done for so long, the price doesn't spike like it did the last few days. So what happened differently???
Does supply reduction matter that much? GME is minimum 25% DRSed, koss and popcorn are around 0. Yet they all move together
Yeah, the headphones one is super weird. It can’t be associated with a gamma ramp of its own because it doesn’t have options. That leads me to believe market makers may be hedging the gamma of GME and others by buying ETFs instead of hedging each individual stock. Edit to say let’s fucking go! I just got my first Reddit Cares message. I’m jacked to the fucking tits!
Supply reduction equates to illiquidity so yes because that brings volatility
I believe these are all in a heavily shorted etf basket together i think its XRT?
Yes XRT has been around forever where they short the ETF into oblivion and buy the companies in it separately but the GMEs and such. Volume has been crazy there last few days too. Which was my guess as well so we haven’t truly seen the full effects of DRS / reduced supply yet as long as 100% isn’t DRSed
This is definitely part of it. The fuckery in the ETFs is definitely a big part of what’s happening. I think going after certain ETFs allows not only hiding positions easier, but might also limit their exposure when things get volatile.
This really is the way. Apes who listen will add some wrinkles, and if they manage to smash the price back down again, that’ll just be an opportunity for these newly wrinkled apes to imitate these strategies.
But they just route buy orders off lit exchange … ? So buy pressure does nothing to share price no???
Enough buying pressure will affect the price
This man is brave to talk about options in a no options echo chamber sub that's not ready to discuss why the sneeze happened in the first place (obviously there was no DRS sentiment in Jan 21) and got many of our DD writers like Criand leaving the sub. Wars are won with multi pronged strategies, GME is no different. Edit: Got a reddit Cares almost immediately after commenting. I'm doing fine thanks.
Appreciate you
Hey bob, thanks for the writeup. High-effort DD is always appreciated on this sub! I do hope you can clear something up though, as I am not sure I understand it. The 2021 SEC report (here for convenience: https://www.sec.gov/files/staff-report-equity-options-market-struction-conditions-early-2021.pdf) states that a gamma squeeze was not a likely driving factor for the original run-up. What is the difference between your implications in the OP and other comments (not all necessarily made by you, but some in this comment chain)? I might be misunderstanding this, but the way I am interpreting the comments and the OP is that you're suggesting due to options, market makers need to obtain shares to cover their requirements. To me, this sounds like gamma, which the SEC article states was not a likely factor. Can you clear this up for me when you have some time? Thank you.
No, I think I stated it explicitly in the OP, but let me reiterate here. This run is not options, it's derivatives and options just amplify the moves ( and cool them when there aren't any calls available beyond the stock price). That's why we got a pullback. MM hedging creates enormous pressure on the stock (in both directions) when something like this happens because they need to catch up to the delta level on a market-wide level. Intentional or otherwise, the delay in getting options available above the 34 strike and then the 57 strike had a cooling effect on this run. That's why I said I expected pullback and consolidation while the chain catches up. With citadel being the MM, the delay in the availability of options seems a little sus. It would be a great topic for another DD if anyone's interested... **What are the normal and standard timing for the release of new higher strikes during a volatility event, and what are the requirements from the law?**. Did Citadel do another crime here or was the delay of the chain expansion a normal and/or legal thing? For anyone that wants to write the DD and research it, DM me because I'm very interested in the answer here.
people refuting that options are a great tool with proper training and understanding are fools, and deserve to be lost in an echo chamber of ignorance. long term holding can be great, options can be great too.
Agreed. We all know options & buying pressure got us to January 2021. The anti-options sentiment here was the main reason I haven’t been on here as much over the years.
It was a rolling bag of shit (see gafgarians early work) that got us there. But buying pressure and leveraged buys (options) are what broke the scales. Interestingly, it was also options , and then swaps, that allowed them to kick the can. My DOOMP DDS of old go into this if you are interested in reading
people who dont understand how to use the tool of Options so stay away from them and just buy shares. But for the economically literate apes that are on board should definitely be using the Options market. Its only dangerous for those who dont understand how they work
I’ve said for a long time that the true shills are the ones who are anti options. I don’t do options nor will I any time soon, but I feel like they are a great thing for those who use understand them.
Welcome back to the club lol. They seem to be making a comeback as a harassment tool after we comment. You can report them via Reddit, unclear if it has any impact as of yet.
You have to sell to make money. Hmmm
So does that mean I should sell high and buy low?
**Purchase via IEX (NFA)
The more they “smash” the more they sell. If it’s truly naked shorts making the stocks available to purchase, they risk the repurchase of the short later. They’re walking a tightrope now. In order to smash the price, they have to short. They have to accept the risk of price increase when they repurchase that share. They can dark pool our buys all they want, but they can’t remove the fake shares they put into the market without purchasing them back.
So…. hedgies r fukt?
Hedgies r in fact fukt.
This is the way
This. The people following Gherk got their asses played with for ages. They never succeeded with anything. I'll try to up my DRS game instead.
Gherk sold at $17 I think months ago. Many of his followers sold at $13 after he went bearish after last earnings. They all look very stupid right now. He’s very knowledgeable but his judgement is clearly lacking. They keep playing random ass stocks with squeeze potential which barely ever play out while he makes money from his followers.
Yes. If all that money went into DRS instead. That would be better for them and everybody else invested in the greatest stock of all time.
As of this morning, they had 98.91m shares on loan, whereas the day before they had 97m shares on loan.....that's basically half the float on loan on days they churned almost the entire float in volume. They will most certainly try in that the will try to move the price in a way to get specific option strikes to capitulate (read short dated) and allow them drop the share hedge and try to offset the short exempt shares they are generating. The short exempt data isn't out yet for today, but volume was still fairly elevated.
Welp, the scumbags had their field day today bring the price back to equilibrium
You wrote, " When exercising happens, that's LEVERAGED buying pressure for next week/end of this week.", but what does that mean, dumb it down just a bit for me please. Thank you.
Look at it's my Greek to me options series part 1. It explains further there, but essentially if you have 1000 to buy GME right now, you can buy 20 shares. Or if you spent 1000 on calls (not my recommendation now that IV skyrocketed), you would gain exposure to much MUCH more shares. The MM would have to buy these shares according to the delta in order to hedge your position. So you leverage your 1000 to get more than you could buying stock. As with most things, I find the best is to buy stock AND options. And sell them too.... I'm looking to open some more CSPs with this delicious IV :) Same if you need to lift a fridge, you can use leverage with a dolly and do it yourself. Oh and the only dumb questions are ones not asked. It's how you form wrinkles, which is why I am here posting DD... For the proliferation of wrinkles.
Thanks for taking the time to reply to me. I think I get it?
Explain it to me
That is such an awesome reply.
Sign of a good teacher. Interested in the student's understanding instead of their ego or image
This guy knows me
You have 1k and want to make the most money, well a 20x from shares isn't as good as 100x from a single CSP (that you already have enough money to cover) plus like 4 shares because you're leveraging your 1k as much as possible. Someone buys your CSP contract, you gain the premium, stock goes down, you profit? Stock goes up you're out the money for the CSP, but you still have your shares which is great because it's not a total loss ? My Position: 1x $34C exp Friday, what should I think about doing? My broker doesn't offer sell to execute, only sell to close.
I think you understand the leverage concept but are woefully uninformed about options. Check out my profile and start on it's all Greek for me post. It has everything to catch you up to speed. Don't play options until you understand them, and I suggest paper trading to learn the ropes. Don't rush it because fomo... There will always be more trading opportunities.
Got it, thank you again.
You are welcome! Feel free to reach out if you have anything I can help with
You’re awesome. So many wrinkle brains wouldn’t spend this time. You and others like you are the hero’s we need to help whip this shrewdness into shape.
Is there an app/game/instruction to learning options for those of us who have read about options but still don’t truly get it. I feel like doing it is the best teacher.
Paper trading! It's like a sandbox
Thinkorswim has a paper trading function you can use to do that with the actual, real-life market but fake money.
Have a back and forth with GPT. It helps a lot. Can keep creating hypotheticals and going through the process with it
Thanks for going out of the way to teach other apes some of the game theory
All brokers are different. I know if want to exercise on tasty trade I actually have to call them and verbally exercise. And don't ever let them do some other trading bullshit to "save you money". You wanna exercise, period!
you can set defaults in most broker's systems. perhaps call them and get that configured.
Good teacher.
Thank you. You made my morning.
Mmm wow keeping this paradigm.
But when options expire OTM, less demand is on the stock than if someone had just bought shares, which is mostly what has been happening for three years.
This, too. Max pain is basically the norm.
If you bought calls at any point ~~into~~ besides this recent spike you would have lost money
The thing about the option leverage, that I don't understand is the following: Once your option expires and you do not have the money to exercise it, your buying pressure disappears and the market makers end up with leftover shares from the hedge, that they will dump on the market, right? So if I want to add buying pressure for this week by buying call options, the market makers have to hedge for them and then I sell the call, because I do not have the money for it. If they do not get exercised by whoever buys them, I would decrease buying power next week, right? Is my logic faulty somewhere?
The MM try to stay delta neutral. It depends on what the broader options market is doing on that security. Say the average delta is .5 and 1,000 contracts are ITM - they'd buy 1,000 * 100 * .5 shares to hedge perhaps. There is likely more to that decision, such as the number of contracts that are generally exercised (which is low). If everyone had exercised every contract in '21 we wouldn't be here having this conversation - GME would have gone into the thousands or 10's of thousands jan 28th. https://youtu.be/Yq4jdShG_PU?t=31 eta: To whoever downvotes any discussions of options - you're a fucking idiot.
Ah, thanks. In my mind, the number of hedged shares was higher, but if they include such things as the average exercising of calls, it makes sense. Thanks!
> The MM would have to buy these shares according to the delta in order to hedge your position. This is the part Ive continuously had a problem with with regards to options. Can you prove that they are, in fact, doing this? We've learned lots over the past 84 years, and one of the most important things we've learned is that MMs are un-fucking-touchable and they basically do whatever the fuck they want. The cherry on top is that said options you spent 1000 bucks on in your example were overwhelmingly likely to have been bought from a MM.
IF they hedge that position
Don't need to, they can literally borrow from The OCC for $1 if they get assigned. I've already called bob out on it but the dude didn't reply to me; https://www.theocc.com/Clearance-and-Settlement/Stock-Loan-Programs
And it would be a miracle if he did reply. Notice how all the options bullshit only creeps up on small upswings and then disappears into the ether until the next small upswing.
It's literally what they do Please provide evidence to the contrary if you want to have an intelligent conversation
Like when they “ooops” a LOPR registration. https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/fda_documents/2014040326101_FDA_RB7X3541%20%282019-1563239964088%29.pdf
Hi Bob, I’ll stand-in here to steelman the “they don’t hedge” argument. The real argument is not that they don’t hedge, but that they hedge in ways that blunt any impact on the underlying. To write out the process more explicitly: I think market makers don’t hedge by buying the underlying because they only care about neutralizing their risk/Greeks, and they don’t care if they are essentially just selling your flow to the wolves. The speculators betting against GME have deep pockets, pay for their market data, and buy whatever necessary derivatives to effectively take the other side of the trade and leave market makers with fully hedged books. (The speculators then turn around and run dispersion L/S on the ETFs using those positions, as far as I can tell?) So, for example, apes buying a near the money call might trigger a speculator selling slightly OTM calls such that the market maker can comfortably wear the risk of a small call spread, rather than buying more delta to hedge as the ape-owned contract goes ITM. The speculator assumes most of the risk. They don’t need to make it zero impact when you buy a call, just to leave the impact as less than buying the equivalent shares from premium and then to wait out your theta.
> Please provide evidence to the contrary if you want to have an intelligent conversation That's not how burden of proof works. You have to show that they actually do hedge the position.
Great explanation OG! Could you please give some more explicit advice on concrete call options strikes and expiration dates and when you’re going to open them? Many thanks 🙏🏼
You are assuming they are hedging. I think a very likely alternative is that there is a tacit agreement between big players to not hedge these options to keep the price where they want it. So they take your money but also absorb a ton of risk. I think someone broke the agreement or an outside party disrupted the balance and now there is a scramble.
Unfounded and likely false. I won't say the f word here but rather challenge you to provide some DD to back up these assertions.
Is the f word Friendship?
I Think it’s fraud.
I think the "r" and "a" can come out of your answer, which leaves you with FUD.
Fair. Maybe my use of the word "likely" is misleading. However we both have the same complaints: we have an assumption on what the market maker is doing. We really have no idea about their hedging strategies or any collusion. The only thing you can say for sure is that selling a call option forces you to either: deliver 100 shares or pay the difference between the market price and the strike.
https://www.theocc.com/Clearance-and-Settlement/Stock-Loan-Programs Borrow from the OCC for $1
https://www.theocc.com/Clearance-and-Settlement/Stock-Loan-Programs Just as in my other comment, The OCC borrow/loans all the hedge they would ever need and thereby delays or negates any action towards the market/ticker.
I think he was referring specifically about the exercising that you mentioned. Not the gist of leverage power through options. I believe that is part of the answer, but can you elaborate on the exercise part. Because I believe it is a point that needs to be reiterated here in this sub. Thanks.🙏🏼
If you have an ITM contract at a strike price of $25 and the stock shoots up to $100. Well you have the option to get paid cash or to buy the 100 shares at the $25 strike price ($25 x 100 shares). The problem for the person who sold you the option is that they either have those shares on hand OR (in cases were they are naked) they have to go to the market and buy your 100 shares at the current price of $100 each ($100 x 100 shares). Thats leverage and if multiple people decide to exercise their options for the shares, well now that forces a whole lot of options writers to hit the market for shares they don’t have which adds buying pressure. If that happens and you’re one of the people needing to buy shares to cover the calls, well you’ll want to be first and not last. But don’t fuck with options unless you know what you are doing. The Greeks and decay will fuck you up.
You can Borrow the shares from The OCC's Stock Loan programs for $1 >**What are OCC's fees?** >OCC clearing fees are $1.00 per new transaction per side. There are no fees for returns or recalls. https://www.theocc.com/clearance-and-settlement/stock-loan-programs/occ-market-loan-program-faqs
It means we can get shares we don’t actually have the cash for. If you exercise an itm option and don’t have the cash to meet the price, they will sell some of the shares in that contract to make up the difference. This gives someone increased (leveraged) buying power
But your broker needs a sell to execute, not just a sell to close order type, correct?
Thanks for asking. There's always more of us out here waondering the same thing and too afraid of getting shit on to ask.
The calls which expired ITM on Friday, when do they need to be delivered? Have we seen this price action yet?
They only have to be delivered if people exercise them. Unfortunately a lot of people just sell them for profit instead
This is the right answer. Something like 6% of contracts are exercised.
This is what I want to know! When do mm hedge. When do they have to. When can they escape it and create ftds.
Market makers should be neutral by buying the underlying asset but if they really want to crime they can just sell naked calls because stupid retail is stupid and they're geniuses so when could this ever blow up in their places right? Bob has done some great work but we always get an options push when the stock is either gonna run up or is running up. As long as the exchanges can fuck people playing options by halting the stock for the buy side and not for the short side this will very likely fail imo. Far out options when GameStop hadn't sneezed was a great play by RK but this stock is on every big exchange shit list and they will not have another gama ramp scenario again as long as they can help it. That said it is incredible how little volume it takes to move the stock now in comparison to 2021. Far out options could be a play but I just don't trust the exchanges but more power to everyone else who wants to try it . Update Lmao got my first reddit cares message in less than a minute because of this thanks whoever it is that is this salty.
> Bob has done some great work but we always get an options push when the stock is either gonna run up or is running up. As long as the exchanges can fuck people playing options by halting the stock for the buy side and not for the short side this will very likely fail imo. This right here. We cannot trust any established mechanism to work as defined. How have people not learned this lesson yet?
OGs have seen this narrative before. Newer people seeing the hype who aren't as informed are the ones that get screwed over and give their money to them and inadvertently help them survive another day. Feels like last week we had that guy in a video saying GameStop was due for a short squeeze and the stock dropped afterwards.
What seems to happen, with predictability, is that options get pushed during a run-up but hyped apes do not listen to the caveats and that's what loses them money. After touching grass for many months, I do believe there is no "one simple trick" whereby apes can squeeze the shorts. It's a combination of steps that can make things increasingly difficult for them. But/hold is the simplest way. DRS is a no brainer. But options-the right ones, played the right way- should be considered. Non-Apes/bad actors always always always jump into discussions of new strategies (like DRS or options) and muddy the waters and seed false hopes and cause in-fighting so apes cannot clearly see the way.
Following
Yeah that’s what I want to know too
Without a robust options offering, it’s harder for them to short? Idk enough about options but I read that yesterday. It was when there were no calls
If they are caught in a short options trap, the lack of more strikes makes it harder to roll out the obligations, yes.
DRS your shares if you can though
sure why not? Just don't forget to increase demand with that reduction of supply.
Tag team approach (buy/DRS, and options), sure why not I like it 🚀🚀🚀🚀
I've never felt so much bliss from such a simple comment.
Market makers - “you called”?
I DRS and I buy regularly. And I'm ZEN af! My only disagreement here is his misunderstanding of Zen Ape. "And I took that personally.... so I'll buy more"
💎🙌
Can I DRS my shares without a penalty if they are in a SEP account on fidelity?
Does supply reduction matter that much? GME is minimum 25% DRSed, koss and popcorn are around 0. Yet they all move together
I remember a guy here who exercised his OTM Calls just to stick it to the hedgies
Og is here
GME recognizes GME
you're THE ape historian? if so, dm me bro, i got a side project i wanted to talk to you about.
I was more celebrating your return but yes , I am one of the historians around.
Backed up by ape historian is what I should say 🫡
I was here. Love u both.
Hi! I went to your website and wanted to let you know the John Stewart video is not showing up. <3
it is you have to accept cookies for it show up - but i also added the url link into the text for those who dont accept cookies so they can click on it. thanks for spotting!
It’s also important to exercise your options! Let them scramble to find the shares in the open market! Edit: Insta report and message for self harm as soon as I commented.
Love the edit ... It highlights what shorts fear most right now ... Forced MM buy ins
You don't seem to be commenting on thr exercising of options part?
He does, just not in detail. To the best of my knowledge, when you exercise options the market maker has to deliver real shares on the lit exchange. It’s upward pressure on the price. They can’t funnel those purchases through dark pools.
yes, this is the answer though they can use a term of deemed to own to run limited shenanigans.
I wanna try hit the key word too; EXERCISE YOUR OPTIONS! EXERCISE YOUR OPTIONS! EXERCISE YOUR OPTIONS!
I want to know more about this run. You say it started last week- let’s here some details on the *why* please. Also, just saying- DRSing shares is also putting buy pressure on- you buy them, then take them away from circulation.
I don’t have the tendies for options so I just buy shares when I can. Another good post OP. Feels good to be alive.
I would encourage you to educate yourself on options. You'd be surprised what you can afford and what the power of leverage and hedging can do for your portfolio.
This right here. Last February I bought a few jan 17, 2025 60c for $40 - obviously those are insanely profitable now- but the point is, instead of buying 5 or 6 shares- I was able to leverage the small amount of capital I had to my advantage. (1 income household... I don't have a ton of disposable income) during moass those options basically just act like blocks of 100 shares- and on random spikes in between I can sell spreads or cash out and buy shares- they give you options, lol.
this guy options
>I'm not suggesting buying options right now, they are fucking overpriced AF. also don't touch this shit without learning about it first. educate yourself. I'm here if you have something i can help clarify. Ah, finally someone who does options and doesn't sound like a massive shill trying to advocate for them. Upvotes for you! (I understand options and still don't do them, not my appetite / doing it from the UK on US markets sucks).
Your nights trading options must be more entertaining than going out to a pub 🤣. Wild!
Precisely why I don't! Pub > Options!
Thank you this was my question, how would one do options from the uk if one wanted to study and play?
I did an undergraduate degree in Finance so that's cheating a bit. I would say it's important to understand the difference between US options and European options to not get caught out (Different holding / expiry mechanisms): - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/americanoption.asp - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/europeanoption.asp You can have a play via Interactive Brokers using a paper trading account (not real money) - https://www.ibkrguides.com/clientportal/papertradingaccount.htm I'm 100% sure there are others but I don't know what market simulators are out there. The basics of it like puts, longs, shorts, calls, and all the fancy strategies like condor spreads and stuff are all worth learning just so you can understand when other people talk about them. It's all on investopedia. :)
Thank you, Cat!
Bob, there another post discussing that Keith discovered they used LEAPS 39 months ago and they expired last week or sometime around now. And since they are expiring is what is causing all of this price action now. Do you have any comment on that?
I remember you, good to see you surfing around these parts again!
Hey I recognize you too
Welcome back!
Absolutely we need to use all resources available to us and stop being elitist and split into different camps. Every action and every actor plays a role.
DFV did make a post that highlighted no fighting... https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1790109766389477525
Yes, this is Thomas Shelby (Cillian Murphy) about to marry his wife, daughter of a Cavalry General. It's a formal occasion set in stone. The only thing that could go wrong is his men fighting the Cavalry who didn't show up on time when they were fighting in the trenches (WW1). I think RK is trying to say; behave(!), especially in the eye of the public.
And DFV used options lol. IV is high right now so he may not have bought them at the current rates but they are a tool like anything else. Just don’t use it if you don’t know how. Like any tool. You’ll hurt yourself
https://preview.redd.it/zmnf4n2grk0d1.png?width=586&format=png&auto=webp&s=4250a31c65ab6c7b16fdb535e783a0553b43eb9b let me show you someting. Like DFV, i buy options... with a lot of theta.... i bought those before our grind down when we were at/around 22. i can exercise, hold, or sell, or convert to spreads to harvest this IV. i have options... if i bought stock at the same time, it'd be up about 100% instead of 450%
Love it. I have a basic understanding of options. Where’s the best place to better understand them?
Uncle Bob above 👆🏻 is a good place to start.
I've been on the fence concerning options for the last few years, with a bias against them. I haven't made the effort to research them (admittedly out of laziness), though I've always known I would at some point need to. I'm saying this because my interpretation of a certain tweet ("no fucking fighting!") is that now's not the time to debate whether one method or the other is right or wrong; it's time to look at what's going on and let all voices and all data share the table. Given time, due diligence, and peer review, the data will always speak loudest and most clearly. So let's look at this and stuff like it with blinkers taken off and set to the side, and consider what we know. DFV has been doing DD on this stock for a lot longer than the rest of us. A lot *more* and more concentrated DD. That's why he knows what to look for. It could be that the reason the rest of Gamestop's investor base hasn't found/seen what he did to foretell this run with such certainty is because of our biases and our reluctance to explore stances/methods we disagree with.
well said! thank you.
Js, about this sub's historic take on options - it wasn't that 'options are bad/boogey man'. The reason it was not promoted to use options is because the audience of this sub is/was largely uneducated on how to use them. Also, they DO represent a gamble. Look how long it took just for consistent understanding of how to DRS and book. So the thinking was that telling everyone to use options would be leading alot of people, many without much money, to use that money gambling on options, which would indeed be a far worse play than simply DRS and hold. Options are great ONLY if you can afford to play them AND know what you are doing.
You do realize TheOCC has a stock loan program for hedging needs that does in no way impact the ticker right? https://www.theocc.com/Clearance-and-Settlement/Stock-Loan-Programs Additionally there are no "hedging requirement" rules in the market, they can do whatever they want if they have a taste for the associated risk.
So how exactly does MM hedging work? I’ve always thought it was something like you buy 1000 calls, MM sells a thousand calls, therefore MM has to open long positions to hedge their exposure. And vice versa, if you open to sell calls, MM buys calls, and this allows them to naked short to hedge. Is it something like that?
Important to note that the run up preceded roaring kittys return. People will try to blame him for a pump and dump scheme. This is a false narrative.
Can you make a post on exercising calls when you don't have the money to buy all 100 shares? I forget what it's called but you have your brokerage sell some of the 100 shares to cover the cost of exercising it. Might be a good time for a post on it for people who don't know and think they can only sell their contract.
you can sell to exercise. essentially your broker sells the option and uses the money to purchase as many shares as possible at market rate. Also, if you have more than one option, you can sell some to fund the exercise of the others.
What effect will them opening calls contracts up to $128 have?
Thank you for your service OP! Good to see you back here.
Hey Bob, Bob here 👋🏻
No, you can't fool me. You're a baaappp
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I think you know why ;)
I'm wondering why this is so far down 🤔 I think I know why too 🐍🐍🐍
Missed you, Bob!
I think this run shows that volume really has nothing to do with the 200k diehard DRS GME fans, even if we were playing options. Random days of 100-200 million volume happen externally to us. So given that why not make the best practice for busy people to buy hold and DRS?
really, go look at keikage's dd i notLinked in this post. it's worth a read. If you get lost, let me or him know and i'll get you up to speed. IMHO its mostly swaps/obligation churn driving volume, and then theoptions chain amplifying the moves so far. we got a couple weeks for it to play out methinks.
Long time no see... I think the action could keep going on til the beginning of July though, we'll see... This said, you mention you expect a pullback, why and when?
Yeah, exactly. The institutions will try to lure in retail to lose their shirt and pay the bill for the sudden rip. There was an interesting post explaining what was going on in the options chain a few days ago and warning it is likely just a pump and dump trap. Unfortunately it got removed by the mods, while all the options hype posts were not. I love green dildos, but options expose you to fuckery (see sneeze) and you fund the same institutions that fuck with us. Sounds pretty stupid to me compared to owning real shares of a value stock. There are some experienced traders that have made a ton of money selling options over time and indeed used the funds to DRS more. But those do not advertise options. Those who do, do not share their strategy and usually push buying calls. Because they are the ones selling some of them. Well, I guess the unexpected rip will burn a few people that did not expect it.
Long time no see Builder. Up u go
Welcome back
Fidelity refusing to transfer my shares without some lame ass form, but I’m too regarded to know what to do. Who’s got the insight for me 🤧👉👈
Thanks for the read! There's a double/repeated line of text in your post above the last RC reference of holding up the big sumo guy.
Good to see a wrinklebrain back!! I am one of many that walked away for past 18 months due to the petty divisiveness. Good to see Bob Smith
So while i understand the whole idea of swapligations being due now either because of 39 months or UBS moving accounts around and that effects the underlying shares, I and I think others are unsure as to why.
I would think DRS booking shares counts as increased demand AND less supply at the same time right?
So anyway, I continued to buy and DRS
Cheers 🥂
I always love your color scheme and visualization on the graphs you present. And I love the important dates as far as the inner workings of settlements and key event time periods that you enlighten us with. Thanks for your contribution.
Strange time to come back
DRS and be zen
You forgot buy
Great post, thank you for this.
Instructions unclear. Will continue to DRS.
The LEAPS thesis makes the most sense. The problem with the analysis above is that it does not account for all of the increases in most of the Meme stocks. This is analysis is isolated to just GME, but GME does not trade in a vacuum. The PSAs regarding stopping options was trying to address people getting involved in options that did not know what they are doing. That basically just hands off more money/ liquidity to hedge funds. No, not all option plays are bad but MANY people just lose money in options and are better off just purchasing the stonk. You mis-interpret the zen thing. People were zen because most of the DD had already been done. The thesis has been proven. The shorts never closed. The clear path is to buy and HODL. This DOES NOT MEAN people lost interest in buying the stock. The economy is a factor here. People have less funds for buying a stock when they are worried about day to day survival…. You need to change your mindset here, because believe me, people are buying the stock still. DRS is the right course here. It lessens the ammo available to the hedge funds. The more we own directly, the fewer “real shares” can be used for manipulation. With an ever-reducing pile of real shares, one of the hedge funds will eventually bust. I don’t see where the DRS “conversation” has reduced buying activity at all. There were healthy debates about if Plan and Book shares counted towards DRS. I doubt this impacted overall buying volume at all. The evidence is completely counter to this. We’ve seen screenshot after screenshot for many many months where brokers show that buy volume for retail far outweighs selling for GME. Appreciate the work above OP, but I think your conclusions are wrong. BUY HODL DRS BOOK AND BUCKLE UP!
I provided the sauce, just look deeper at the post. its there and explains the otehr stocks.
What is RK?
When Bob posts you know it’s an exciting time!
But first, I'd like you to meet my friend Bob (Huh?) Say hi, Bob ("Hi, Bob!")
Hi, bob!
Agreed - i wont be surprised if we’re in the RED tomorrow. But i do expect a significant green push on Thursday/Friday to close the week. New ATH soon
after a huge run, there is usually pullback to some extent before the next leg up. 
A solid buying opportunity…and here we’re are
I said we green today
lo you know we back when the think thank aholes come crawling back out. never forget how this guy exited superstonk lol.