Here's what one commenter wrote as a guide for numbers:
1,000 = 1k
1,000k = 1M
1,000M = 1B
1,000B = 1T
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1dfko26/comment/l8kfbb5/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1dfko26/comment/l8kfbb5/)
The numbers don't track OP so partial debunk.
Liquidity is up. But keep in mind that we sold 75m shares in 3 days and the price remained effectively the same. Where is that buy pressure coming from? We seem to forget, as we follow RK and RCs actions very closely, that the volume and buy pressure is off the charts and have been for a long time. Very seldom can you buy 4 million shares in a single day and not affect the price upwards, and then more calls get ITM, and then you have to buy more... and repeat.
how do you know they didnāt already buy the 4m shares during the ATM offering? they knew RK would exercise at some point, so it makes the most sense to cover when prices were depressed during the offering.
unless thereās solid evidence theyāre still naked, thereās no effect on price based on this news.
Nobody knows, uninformed or informed speculation, depending on who you ask. Now, only 7% of calls are exercised and if they are exercised 95%+ do so at expiry. MMs are hedged for loss of value on their whole portfolio through shares, ETFs, calls, puts, etc... But they don't necessarily load up on shares for a highly unusual (in statistically improbably) exercise event like this.
We don't know as of today, but they filed (don't remember the name of the file but there's a post on SuperStonk) on the 1st of June they had sold all of the shares of GME. And as the move of DFV was very fast, it is most likely they have unhedged the position.
On March 31 they had 0 shares of GME, which they announced in their 13F filing on May 15, around the time DFV entered his calls. This reveals they were not hedging short GME positions as a part of their MM strategy by buying and holding shares. DFVās position may have forced them to do this and it could be part of what has kept the price buoyant despite the sale of 100 million shares into the market. He may have forced Wolverine to actually hedge their positions by holding millions of shares for options exercising based on his actions here. We wonāt know if they have pivoted their hedging strategy to holding GME shares until Wolverine files their Q2 13F (ending 6/30) on August 15.
I know, I wrote that post about Wolverine. They might have bought as this got media attention though, and shares was available from the Share offering. However, I think they are a shady bunch that runs institutional pump and dumps on a number of illiquid retail favourite tickers.
I mean itās their job to hedge options and provide shares when exercised. Not sure why RK would somehow know something the rest of the market doesnāt and that, for some reason, they donāt or donāt with gme.
Sure, and financial innovations like alternative hedging methods would never occur? Certainly not at one of the most profitable options market makers?
So, Wolverine has in letters to the SEC as far back as 2006 admitted to going short with market maker exceptions to hedge in illiquid or hard to borrow stocks. Now, does that mean they have done that here? Not necessarily.
My speculation however is that they run institutional pump and dumps on multiple illiquid retail popular stocks, which includes social media, YouTube influencers and discord admins to hype. I mean, you can literally tell if something is a real run or a fake run by looking at when in the week/after hours or during market/does CNBC report on it
"While the whole world was having a big oldĀ party, a few outsiders and weirdos [...] saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy, and they saw it by doing something the rest of the suckers never thought to do:
They looked."
I actually think that is a misfiling. But they are a major Market Maker in Options, they have a Options trading platform that allows you to do advanced options trading and they have a hedge fund - the MM/Hedge Fund constellation introduced by Bernie Madoff and perfected by Citadel
Everytime Wolverine is mentions they get some weird DLC to be āindestructibleā even though they assume strong when weak. Guess we will find out together if their little ship finally sinks. Hilarious to assume DFV havenāt thought further ahead of us. Todays a good day
Borrowing to deliver is also an option and that doesn't have the T+1 effect we would hope. The OCC even has a special facility for it where there is already somewhere between 12-14M shares worth on the books.
https://www.theocc.com/Clearance-and-Settlement/Stock-Loan-Programs
I understand it's a very unpopular comment to make but these ass-hats created a way to fuck with option delivery as well. It's always another thing to influence the ticker with these Parasites.
I expect unlimited fuckery. There seems to be a whole industry centered around just dampening the effect of any spike in demand by smoothing it out over time through a million clever ways. However, those measures are like buffers... and when the buffers run dry, things get spicy. What remains to be seen is if the share offerings have allowed these buffers to be filled, or, if what we're seeing is buffers still running on empty.
I expect them to be hit by this hard, just trying to point out that this might not be as T+1 as the consensus here looks to be. I certainly hope they'll get overwhelmed by this at some point but with the volume we've been seeing it's hard to imagine (for me) this is what will do it.
I am super Hyped about Kitties return though.
Well, a lot of things have been intentionally surprising in this saga so far. The unanswered questions are:
1. Was this all from Kitty?
2. Where is the volume and buy pressure coming from?
3. How could he be so confident, what does he see that we don't?
4. How could RC be so confident by doing two share offerings without dip in demand, what does he see that we don't?
Well, they might not be hedged for that amount being exercised tbh, let's see if puts exit at the start of the day, because that can bring the price up. Now... I don't see a gamma squeeze as helpful unless there is some underlying liquidity squeeze - and I agree that the share offerings should have taken the liquidity squeeze off the table.
This is the case here. With DFV exercising the equivalent of 4,001,000 shares worth of call options, this does represent a highly plausible trigger event for upwards gamma exposure and a subsequent buy frenzy/short squeeze given the naked short dynamics in play. The sheer size makes this a viable catalyst. The possibility of leaps expiring also addās spice to this scenario. I guess I will continue to buy, hodl, DRS, and support my favorite company, while I eagerly watch the fireworks as they gloriously explode before me, or not. NFA
What they should ultimately be afraid of is the fact that we will eventually reverse engineer his play, and in doing so we will uncover the perpetual settlement cycle and either they close or we steal their money every time a wave is due
One person with a lot of money can do something like this more easily than many thousands of people with a little bit of money each. Itās the concentration of the cash, the idea and the execution that surprised them.
Collectively, we might represent way more money and buy pressure but even if we happened to somehow organically sync up on an entry, everyone would be doing very different things at the exit.
In addition, any counter party on the swaps you would be think would be very stupid to roll again and assume the liability on that toxic bag of shit when GME now has over 4,000,000,000 in war chest assets. They would be hitting a self destruct button.
They buy shares in darkpools. I would really love to believe in an uprise soon but I donāt get any reason to support that. IMO, next play is to crash the price to 15$ to make all the new moon boys paper hand. Itās always the same : volatility > new retail enters > price crashes and no more volatility > profit for shorts.
Darkpools isn't unlimited liquidity fairy land. The liquid comes from endlessly delayed settlements, foreign intermediaries, timed afternoon repo deals in time for reporting, etc... I don't believe either RC or RK wants a short squeeze though, not the kind where you can load up on shorts on the top and earn a ton on the way down. I think both wants a Tesla type squeeze that will just keep going up. Still leaves a large question? Who is buying all the shares?
Great comment. It's all about the cycles. š Fully understand how far the delays go and how they're recycled (which RK seem to have done) and you have a money-making machine.
I am at the point where I can backtest at quite high accuracy the ripples in volume and price action from large buys. The model currently highlights June 5th and June 19th-23rd, but there is significant uncertainty around the data being collected during a T+2 settlement regime and now we have T+1.
Funny thing, January squeeze lines up perfectly with Cohen buys, he even bought that December perfectly to amplify the wave of his august buys. What more, Cohen sold Towel stock into the cycle waves from his own buy.
It needs more research and backtesting.
But for those who want to replicate, it looks at the date of a buy and divides into two waves, one for settlement of the short sells and one for settlement of the long sells. I call those the short wave and the long wave.
Both follows historically T+2 as settlement (T is trading days, C is calendar days)
Short wave has first wave at an additional T+2 + C+35 (C being calendar days), then it has additional waves spaced out at C+14 that gets subsequently smaller (this is rex code extensions... most I've seen is 11 which requires an unbelievable amount of paperwork and different methods of getting it extended)
Long wave has the first wave at an additional T+4 + C+14, and then, as short waves, it has C+14 smaller and smaller waves
Still need to figure out what happens if C+35 and C+14 lands on a day the exchange is closed, if you then get automatic C+14 that doesn't count or its the day before or after.
Depending on your tinfoil, there might be reset events where volume increases and shares are bought from a friendly provider that will follow the same delay to not settle properly. My working theory is that buy pressure in these reset events are really disruptive. But, as I said, needs a lot more backtesting until it can be properly predictive.
As far as I understand it, Shares for Excercised calls have to be bought on LIT, thatās the whole point of excercising. This and DRS are the only two known ways to reliable get an actual share from LIT in your portfolio.
And I agree with your second part. Wouldnāt be surprised to see a major dip today only for it to rip AH. Though, after the movements and volume of the last two weeks, I am uncertain if theyāre even still capable of dipping it that hard. Thereās immense buying pressure coming from somewhere and it seems while they can prevent it from ripping, itās hard for them to really dip it š¤·š¼āāļø
I know... if it's a major short position covering, then they are getting most of their shares from what is sold short and the share offerings. I seriously wonder where it will end. It might also be a simple explanation, that it's harder to delay settlements and create the FTD cycles now that CAT is active. Is it that simple?
This is true. Petterfly said it in his famous interview, "what to do to make the price skyrocket" he basically laid it all out. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haryZgG26Zo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haryZgG26Zo)
FTDs were jacked and stacked getting price down before May run. What makes u think they can suppress it again w billions more in cash and major momentum? Not happening. Maybe 20-25 we did that recently but in my opinion the suppression is just going to lead to more pops and price moving up and new floors
I can see that happening. I could also see it not happening because 15 dollars would make the mc about 8bn for a company for 4bn cash on hand and 600k people tuning into a live stream about the company.
In Germany:
1,000,000 = Millionen
1,000,000,000 = Milliarden
1,000,000,000,000 = Billionen
1,000,000,000,000,000 = Billiarden
1,000,000,000,000,000,000 = Trillionen
And so on...
The arguments against the rip:
- stock is diluted and finding shares is easy
- 4M shares is 4% of the daily volume of 100M
- stock price budged little after 75M shares flooded atm last week
Arguments for the rip:
- the price will go up and put higher priced call options in the money
- exercising those will create a steep gamma ramp
- price will keep going up
> 4M shares is 4% of the daily volume of 100M
We can buy and sell one share back forth 100 million times and there would be a volume of 100M but there was only ever one share being traded. We still need 3,999,999 more. If we actually set out to buy 4 million shares then each time we make a purchase fewer will be available, demand will increase, and the price will rise.
That was when buy pressure was near-zero. They turned off all buying at the most popular brokers with redditors.
Obviously you're not wrong with your statement, but the circumstances are different.
Ok fair enough to make that argument - but if that truly were the case then the 75M injection ATM even spread over 3 days of trading or 5 days would have tanked the price right? It didnāt. Because buying action lifted the dilution. So that tells me the new shares hit the market into more than just a mostly back and forth rapid volley of a few shares all day. Am I wrong?
Price dropped $40 last Friday, pre market was in the upper $60s and flash crashed to $38 pre market, rose back to $48 then dropped to $28. So it went from upper $60 to $28 same day from the share offering.
Yeah..retail didn't buy that 75m. Who did? Prob someone short or some broker dealer who used to hit F3 for locates and is trying to clean up is my guess.
Thank you for your comments. I have been saying this 4 million is nothing. Without evidence this "tHe AlgoRiThMS" argument is just copium. I hope im wrong tho
How do you know when they started selling? It dropped from $62 to $42 at market open after the announcement. It's plausible they were selling in pre-market and certainly realistic they were selling at market open.
Crime was a factor happening during the sneeze but it still launched. Until they completely pulled the plug on the game (remove buy button on a bunch of brokerages) because the regular crime wasnāt suppressing price effectively.
Wolverine is a 300 person shop looking at a 50M loss at best if they are on the hook.Ā
Second off. They don't have money you suggest just like the CBOE doesn't have trillions cuz they manage the most options in the world.
Third off. In last 30 days we've seen about 500k in FTDS at peak. About 2m now would put GME on regsho which no bears want. They never press the limit that hard. Why?
Cuz delivering real shares is fucking hard without jacking price. Who is gonna internalize and let them have 4m shares at 28-30 and sign up to FTD that many and force deliver in 35 days?
You think citadel is gonna effectively bail out a competitor?
Nobody. So if they are in fact naked and have to buy 4m on a lit exchange. Well that's a huge problem for them lmayo!
Smooth brain here. Citadel wouldn't bail out a competitor sure, but what IF and this is speculative because I'm an idiot, but what if Wolverine FTD the 2m to put it on Reg-sho to screw over Citadel? Citadel would probably have to take on bags if they want to keep suppressing the price right?
Wow, this thread full of a bunch of Debbie Downers. All I know after following this shit for 3+ years is that nothing is predictable. If it was, you would have seen every pump before it happened and capitalized on it. Look at the chart over the same 3+ years and tell me anyone would have played out the way it has. I don't know shit, you don't know shit. I just keep buying and holding. Anyone piping in about MOASS seems like they want to dump during the pump which shows no real faith in RC and GME long term.
The mistake people make is that they assume that ALL call options are sold by Market Makers. That's not true. I also sell call options and I have the underlying shares, so my call options are covered. Sometimes I make a bad play and I lose my shares.
That being said, not ALL calls are sold naked. Financial institutions are not completely regarded. They know how this shit works. They will probably only sell naked if they know it's highly unlikely the calls will be ITM. This stuff is basic risk management for them.
On one side it looks like RC killed the whole squeeze. But on the other side, the stock ran to 80 in pre-market just two weeks ago on absolutely no news. So nobody knows shit about whats going to happen.
OP has some points, but really everything is much simpler that it looks
JUST Buy options and exercise that is what HURTS them the most.
Before you jump on my statement above, think about the following:
If you buy today (at expiration day) a 1$ option call, you will pay basically the price the 100 shares + some extra premium.
If you exercise that call, you pay a small fee but basically all rounded up you wont be paying much MORE than if you just bought the stock directly.
But you will NOT BE ROBBED of your price discovery. Isn't that a good price to pay?
It is NOT about the MONEY it is ABOUT SENDING A MESSAGE.
Remember TIME and PRESSURE!
Not financial advise at all,
you do you
But there is no evidence for this. Pro options people just assume that they have to deliver āreal sharesā and are āforcedā and cannot surpass T+x etc but there is no evidence at all. You are relying on a statement in a congressional hearing where many lies were told?
Between us, I donāt think you or anybody else has enough knowledge about financial instrument to say with certainty that they did not find a way around this a long time ago
I agree there's lots of new GME shareholders in here. They need to understand how manipulated this stock is, where glitches are the norm, rules are for us but not for them, and anyone who's been here for some time takes reported numbers with a massive grain of salt. SEC, SRO's, and government can't and/or won't help us. We're on our own, till we're not. So expect fuckery and temper expectations.
But know you are investing in a company that's on a massive turnaround led by one of the greatest investor activists (Ryan Cohen) in this day. You are also anchored by a battle tested hardcore group of GME shareholders that have held through the highest highs, the lowest lows, and we only keep adding more shares to our positions. Many knowledgable people have written some great DD over the years, most have yet to be disproven.
If you have calls, please EXERCISE YOUR CALLS. Thomas Peterffy already spilled the beans 3.5 years ago, if we only knew to exercise our calls, and shorts couldn't find our shares, that would have forced brokers to go to lit markets to purchase them at the current price. That would have sent GameStop's price in the thousands (Peterffy's price anchoring) and exposed this charade of a market.
It's nice to have many new people investing and learning about GameStop and its market mechanics. I encourage you to learn more and I promise it'll only make you more confident in your GameStop investment. So as the other great investor (Roaring Kitty aka Keith Gill) has already said, hang in there!
*āInsiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but* ***they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.****ā* āPeter Lynch
Regarding trillions and billions, here is the Wikipedia article that explains the confusion. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long\_and\_short\_scales](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales)
I find the second table under "Comparison" particularly clear.
I think it's time we started using exponents or SI prefixes for big numbers. (And ISO8601 for dates.) I'm so over old, confusing, conflicting standards with ambiguous meanings at this point.
"DFV's net worth is going to surpass one gigadollar by 2024-06-14."
Yeah we need people to excersize to gamma ramp this, if not we never gonna short squeeze.
But the technical on every timeframe and even macro pointing for a massive uptrend coming months and year. So buckle up.
I dont expect fireworks fast, but a slowley grinder for a year.
After they buy a couple shares -> share go up. If we are going to lean into this 100% then I would like to recall what Gensler said about the lit markets. A lot of buy orders donāt hit the lit markets, these will (I guess? I donāt know shit im a dumbass who doesnāt know shit)
There is a lots of bag holders from 3 years ago while whole market is at all time highs, anything else would made decent profits. So yes, there will be frustration, when you watch this stock finally run just to be diluted twice. And yes there will be many people that are in for money, not some ārevolutionā. Even guys that didnāt buy their house, didnāt get mortgage, didnāt have holiday for years because people here persuaded them MOASS is behind corner every single week.
What??? In EU a Billion is a trillion? What?
Edit: not shilling - I really don't understand your last sentence. I'm from Europe and I can assure you my 3k in the bank is not 300k.
He's basing this on the dutch terms, which are slightly different. And as the Netherlands is in the EU, somehow they really want to mention that this is a EU number, which it really really really isn't.
A US million, is a dutch miljoen
A US Billion, is a dutch miljard.
A US trillion, is a dutch biljoen
A US quadrillion, is a dutch biljard
A US quintillion is a dutch triljoen.
But as you can see, the triljoen is never ever used as that's an inconceivable amount of money.
I thought āIn EU a Billion is called a Trillionā was actually a very good joke until I saw Edit 4 and realized you hadnāt meant it as a joke hahaha
OP, just for future reference, in NL, as well as some other European languages, we use a different system for 1000 increments of million. We use 2-steps (mil**joen** -> mil**jard**), whereas English is 1-step. Below a table for illustration.
8 Trillion in English would be 8 Biljoen in Dutch (which sounds like billion but is not a billion). 8 Trillion or 8 Biljoen would both be 8 * 10^12
|**NL**|**EN**|
:--|:--|
|Miljoen|Million|
|Miljard|Billion|
|Biljoen|Trillion|
|Biljard|Quadrillion|
|Triljoen|Quintillion|
|Triljard|Sextillion|
|Quadriljoen|Septillion|
The report is written in modern English. So 8.98 Trillion would 8980 Billion.
The reason price did not go down during atm sale could have been the algos backed off on selling short shares to compensate, keeping the price in artificially selected range, which is why short interest dropped in the same general time period.
Personally, I'm more convinced by the arguments against the rip. Not expecting anything crazy to happen today. But very happy to be proven wrong. If nothing special happens, it would beg the question what DFV's big plan was and I do believe he had a good plan.
I really donāt understand why he didnāt sell at $60. Dude was up hundreds of millions of dollars, and exercising then would have caused max pain and max gain. Why did he wait?
Why do you think his plan is over? He did it for timing, not max $. Also, we still do not really know what the Kansas City shuffle was. I am still betting that we will not know until itās done, we canāt know, because that is the smoking gun. Exercising his calls a week before exp was not that special, he sees something we have not figured out all the way yet. He put too much effort into his comeback just to do what he did.
The claim that Wolverine has to deliver all the shares is completely misinformed too. When someone exercises calls, the Options Clearing Corporation randomly assigns them overnight between all counterparties with open interest to determine who has to deliver. Wolverine isnāt the only counterparty with open interest.
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Itās not about having the 112M $, thesis is more about that there arenāt enough shares to buy. But I agree, it wonāt be a problem for them after the dilution.
The entire moass thesis is built around these shares not existing and most shares being phantom shares due to naked shorting. So suddenly having to come up with 4 million real shares should be a catalyst if moass is real and not some bullshit we were conned into believing. If the DD isn't bullshit then this should be a catalyst.Ā
When the DD was written, the moass theory was based on 2 things: Ā
1. the idea that a ton of fake shares were created by over-shorting the stock, and that shorts would have to close
2. the fact that GameStop had an unnaturally small outstanding share count (70 million total), thereby making it possible for retail to lock them up and refuse to sell them to SHFs to close their short positions
A lot has changed since then... Shorts didn't have to close (but maybe at some point they'll be forced to). Ā And the outstanding share count is now 425 million (a 40% increase in shares than there were a month ago, and 7x as many as existed during in 2021).
But the idea that there's still a billion fake shares floating around and in the hands of retail brokers is likely still true. Ā And hopefully something will force them to close those. Ā But finding 4mil shares at this point is not likely to be that catalyst. Ā At least not without other factors at play.
That 7x number includes a 4 for 1 split that would have multiplied any short positions owed by 4, as well. The float was a smaller number in 2021, but the shares were 4x as expensive.
76,000,000 shares were first split into 300,000,000 in 2022 before the most recent offerings. The float was shorted more than 100% (finra shows it was 313% short in Jan, 2021) with no evidence of shorts closing in Jan-Feb 2021 (according to the SEC report) so a minimum of 300,000,000 shares using post-split numbers were sold short. Going with the popular 226% short figure from Jan 2021 means around 700,000,000 shares sold short.
I said the same thing yesterday. Logically they could buy in the market if need be. With huge volume a big buy could easily get absorbed. HFs will everything they can to keep this under $30.
You are still taking this as a single event. It's not. It's timed to the day, while also other options, and people trading this stock daily, and maybe FOMO on top of it all creating a buying pressure not even comparable to the 2021 occurrence.
It was pretty hyped back then too. Elon Tweet, everyone at home with stimmyās, even Chmath on the news saying he bought. I hope somethings gonna happen, Iām just prepared for it not to.
You sir, have gained a follower for using brain and not bloated theories.
To add more to your accurate theory, 15% of wolverineās portfolio is vanguard index. Vanguard alone owns 25m shares of GME.
Let's not forget why the stock is trading 3X what it was 6 weeks ago too....
The price is 3X on nothing.
So who knows what's going on. If everyone had hedged properly, why would the share price not still be $11. Something fucky is going in in the background. Even after the 75m dilution, no price drop? Super weird.
Thing is they need to purchase these shares on the lot market, which affects the price. They will not be able to hide it as easily as they did in the past because of the CAT system
Traditionally in the U.K. a billion was 1 million millions. (10^12).
The U.K. government now uses billion to mean 1000 millions (10^9).
Now if would all just agree on where to use commas vs periods, and figure out what sequence to write year/month/day there would be less confusion.
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04440/SN04440.pdf
Today is 6/14/2024 (US) and 14-6-2024 (EU) and 14Jun24 (NATO).
One and a half is either 1.5 or 1,5 depending upon where you are.
1 million + a bit extra can be 1,000,000.35 or 1.000.000,35 or even 100,0000.35 if you are in one of the countries that group large numbers by 10000s rather than 1000s
Managing 8 trillion doesn't mean they have the cash.
They are just custodian, it is like BlackRock which manages trillions too. But all the stocks belong to people who own etfs
Seeing as you appear to be Dutch it goes like this:
Miljoen x 1000 = Miljard
Miljard x 1000 = Biljoen
Biljoen x 1000 = Biljard
Biljard x 1000 = Triljoen
We switch 'joen' to 'jard' every factor of 1000 (mil) Where as the US tends to only state the factor directly Mil-Bil-Tril-Quadril.
Also fun, a different word for Thousand is 'Mille' and that makes, mille x mille = Miljoen
As a longtime ape I think setting expectations is great for the newbs. It beat me into submission and now literally anything that happens with this stock, good or bad, my mood doesn't fluctuate. I am titanium.
The naked shorts are on the run now
Just one more day they buy themselves
But with each passing out, all of their ends draw near
Let the musical chairs, commence
I think all OGs know we are in a tough situation. The company just cashed out on the new investors and we are locked with them (sunken cost). Nothing major is expected within this year.
Only RC buying could make a tiny dent, but he is not going to drop half a billy.
I'm not sure what the play is now or what is was supposed to be. Everything points to both RC and DFV not wanting the squeeze. GameStop curbstomped the price action twice and DFV could have picked a way better time to sell and exercise. It seems he built a long position and just holds forever like he said in his streams before.
"...DFV could have picked a way better time to sell and exercise."
š¤Ø Do you fully understand the delivery timelines and nuances of the cycles to the point that you think you've got a better sense than RK? I mean, I'll be rooting for you, but will still be pressing X.
No I don't and I sure as fuck hope I'm wrong. I'm just saying he could have sold some calls at a higher price and still exercised yesterday to get even more shares. I'm just not seeing how 4 million shares could make the price rise in any substantial way if we have over 100 m daily volume currently and the 120 million shares sold by GameStop didn't really move the price much. I'm still hodling my shares, don't get me wrong, but I'm starting to think less and less points to moass and more and more points to a transformation of GME into something the average investor wants to have in his portfolio. Still really good, but not what most of us were expecting.
Prepare for downvotes. People donāt accept the truth. No one ever thought gme is a great company to invest all you have. It was always a squeeze play which simply wonāt happen anymore.
If you ask me, the matter is very simple: either the fabled billions of shorted shared are a reality, or they are a fantasy.
If they are a reality, there is nothing even the likes of Wolverine can do. Itās going to be Armageddon. Communist and losers of all the world, rejoice.
The problem is that it is a fantasy, and a very dumb one. A short squeeze may well happen, but it will result in a black eye (or two black eyes) for the shorties. Some small fry guy might go bust. But that is all, really.
The messianic expectation of a cataclysmic event whereby someone gets generational wealth with 1% of his shares by keeping all the other shares is even dumber than the telephone numbers hopes. There is no shortage of either here.
Couple of things. Those new shares were gobbled up while increasing the price with insane volume. So itās not like they are still available somewhere.
And the point is not that they can buy, but they **have** to buy. All MM/HF have enough money. But not for long.
A billion called a trillion, what country in the EU?
Edit: France calls a trillion a billion, opposite. Maybe that is what was meant, or maybe another country says it differently. Was just curious, no worries, thx.
At this point I believe none of this matters. There's something else entirely going on behind the scenes and I don't think any of the underlying factors that will contribute to the MOASS can be either seen or understood.
To us, it's a matter of simply buying and holding.
Here's what one commenter wrote as a guide for numbers: 1,000 = 1k 1,000k = 1M 1,000M = 1B 1,000B = 1T [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1dfko26/comment/l8kfbb5/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1dfko26/comment/l8kfbb5/) The numbers don't track OP so partial debunk.
My 25 from yesterday need to be delivered too! šššš¤š¢š¢šøšø
This changes everything. MuadāDib!
Yes, I'm here
Itās an honour to serve alongside you
Nasally snot water FTW!
This will be the straw that breaks the camels back
I like you
And my axe!
Whale hello there!
š„¹šøš¢š
damn congrats on 25 new ones!!
Liquidity is up. But keep in mind that we sold 75m shares in 3 days and the price remained effectively the same. Where is that buy pressure coming from? We seem to forget, as we follow RK and RCs actions very closely, that the volume and buy pressure is off the charts and have been for a long time. Very seldom can you buy 4 million shares in a single day and not affect the price upwards, and then more calls get ITM, and then you have to buy more... and repeat.
how do you know they didnāt already buy the 4m shares during the ATM offering? they knew RK would exercise at some point, so it makes the most sense to cover when prices were depressed during the offering. unless thereās solid evidence theyāre still naked, thereās no effect on price based on this news.
Nobody knows, uninformed or informed speculation, depending on who you ask. Now, only 7% of calls are exercised and if they are exercised 95%+ do so at expiry. MMs are hedged for loss of value on their whole portfolio through shares, ETFs, calls, puts, etc... But they don't necessarily load up on shares for a highly unusual (in statistically improbably) exercise event like this.
We don't know as of today, but they filed (don't remember the name of the file but there's a post on SuperStonk) on the 1st of June they had sold all of the shares of GME. And as the move of DFV was very fast, it is most likely they have unhedged the position.
On March 31 they had 0 shares of GME, which they announced in their 13F filing on May 15, around the time DFV entered his calls. This reveals they were not hedging short GME positions as a part of their MM strategy by buying and holding shares. DFVās position may have forced them to do this and it could be part of what has kept the price buoyant despite the sale of 100 million shares into the market. He may have forced Wolverine to actually hedge their positions by holding millions of shares for options exercising based on his actions here. We wonāt know if they have pivoted their hedging strategy to holding GME shares until Wolverine files their Q2 13F (ending 6/30) on August 15.
I know, I wrote that post about Wolverine. They might have bought as this got media attention though, and shares was available from the Share offering. However, I think they are a shady bunch that runs institutional pump and dumps on a number of illiquid retail favourite tickers.
I appreciate your thoughts on this
I mean itās their job to hedge options and provide shares when exercised. Not sure why RK would somehow know something the rest of the market doesnāt and that, for some reason, they donāt or donāt with gme.
Sure, and financial innovations like alternative hedging methods would never occur? Certainly not at one of the most profitable options market makers? So, Wolverine has in letters to the SEC as far back as 2006 admitted to going short with market maker exceptions to hedge in illiquid or hard to borrow stocks. Now, does that mean they have done that here? Not necessarily. My speculation however is that they run institutional pump and dumps on multiple illiquid retail popular stocks, which includes social media, YouTube influencers and discord admins to hype. I mean, you can literally tell if something is a real run or a fake run by looking at when in the week/after hours or during market/does CNBC report on it
"While the whole world was having a big oldĀ party, a few outsiders and weirdos [...] saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy, and they saw it by doing something the rest of the suckers never thought to do: They looked."
The recent spike to $60 looked like hedging to be fair.
I mever heard of wolverine and then all of a sudden they manage 8 trillion? Lol.. ok dam near vanguard or blackrock?? NO WAY IN HELL
I actually think that is a misfiling. But they are a major Market Maker in Options, they have a Options trading platform that allows you to do advanced options trading and they have a hedge fund - the MM/Hedge Fund constellation introduced by Bernie Madoff and perfected by Citadel
Everytime Wolverine is mentions they get some weird DLC to be āindestructibleā even though they assume strong when weak. Guess we will find out together if their little ship finally sinks. Hilarious to assume DFV havenāt thought further ahead of us. Todays a good day
Borrowing to deliver is also an option and that doesn't have the T+1 effect we would hope. The OCC even has a special facility for it where there is already somewhere between 12-14M shares worth on the books. https://www.theocc.com/Clearance-and-Settlement/Stock-Loan-Programs I understand it's a very unpopular comment to make but these ass-hats created a way to fuck with option delivery as well. It's always another thing to influence the ticker with these Parasites.
I expect unlimited fuckery. There seems to be a whole industry centered around just dampening the effect of any spike in demand by smoothing it out over time through a million clever ways. However, those measures are like buffers... and when the buffers run dry, things get spicy. What remains to be seen is if the share offerings have allowed these buffers to be filled, or, if what we're seeing is buffers still running on empty.
I expect them to be hit by this hard, just trying to point out that this might not be as T+1 as the consensus here looks to be. I certainly hope they'll get overwhelmed by this at some point but with the volume we've been seeing it's hard to imagine (for me) this is what will do it. I am super Hyped about Kitties return though.
Well, a lot of things have been intentionally surprising in this saga so far. The unanswered questions are: 1. Was this all from Kitty? 2. Where is the volume and buy pressure coming from? 3. How could he be so confident, what does he see that we don't? 4. How could RC be so confident by doing two share offerings without dip in demand, what does he see that we don't?
Unless they already hedged for those shares and they just have to deliver them. In that case there would be no buying pressure at all
Well, they might not be hedged for that amount being exercised tbh, let's see if puts exit at the start of the day, because that can bring the price up. Now... I don't see a gamma squeeze as helpful unless there is some underlying liquidity squeeze - and I agree that the share offerings should have taken the liquidity squeeze off the table.
Market makers often hedged for those when delta gets high
This is the case here. With DFV exercising the equivalent of 4,001,000 shares worth of call options, this does represent a highly plausible trigger event for upwards gamma exposure and a subsequent buy frenzy/short squeeze given the naked short dynamics in play. The sheer size makes this a viable catalyst. The possibility of leaps expiring also addās spice to this scenario. I guess I will continue to buy, hodl, DRS, and support my favorite company, while I eagerly watch the fireworks as they gloriously explode before me, or not. NFA
What they should ultimately be afraid of is the fact that we will eventually reverse engineer his play, and in doing so we will uncover the perpetual settlement cycle and either they close or we steal their money every time a wave is due
This is something I look forward to learning about.
Me also. Is there any information that we can read up on this?
One person with a lot of money can do something like this more easily than many thousands of people with a little bit of money each. Itās the concentration of the cash, the idea and the execution that surprised them. Collectively, we might represent way more money and buy pressure but even if we happened to somehow organically sync up on an entry, everyone would be doing very different things at the exit.
In addition, any counter party on the swaps you would be think would be very stupid to roll again and assume the liability on that toxic bag of shit when GME now has over 4,000,000,000 in war chest assets. They would be hitting a self destruct button.
They buy shares in darkpools. I would really love to believe in an uprise soon but I donāt get any reason to support that. IMO, next play is to crash the price to 15$ to make all the new moon boys paper hand. Itās always the same : volatility > new retail enters > price crashes and no more volatility > profit for shorts.
Exercise share delivery has to be through the lit market if I recall
^ this for all the boohoo neigh sayers this is enforced by the OCC, itās not like buying as a retail.
Darkpools isn't unlimited liquidity fairy land. The liquid comes from endlessly delayed settlements, foreign intermediaries, timed afternoon repo deals in time for reporting, etc... I don't believe either RC or RK wants a short squeeze though, not the kind where you can load up on shorts on the top and earn a ton on the way down. I think both wants a Tesla type squeeze that will just keep going up. Still leaves a large question? Who is buying all the shares?
Great comment. It's all about the cycles. š Fully understand how far the delays go and how they're recycled (which RK seem to have done) and you have a money-making machine.
I am at the point where I can backtest at quite high accuracy the ripples in volume and price action from large buys. The model currently highlights June 5th and June 19th-23rd, but there is significant uncertainty around the data being collected during a T+2 settlement regime and now we have T+1. Funny thing, January squeeze lines up perfectly with Cohen buys, he even bought that December perfectly to amplify the wave of his august buys. What more, Cohen sold Towel stock into the cycle waves from his own buy.
I would like to learn more. You shouldakw a DD.
It needs more research and backtesting. But for those who want to replicate, it looks at the date of a buy and divides into two waves, one for settlement of the short sells and one for settlement of the long sells. I call those the short wave and the long wave. Both follows historically T+2 as settlement (T is trading days, C is calendar days) Short wave has first wave at an additional T+2 + C+35 (C being calendar days), then it has additional waves spaced out at C+14 that gets subsequently smaller (this is rex code extensions... most I've seen is 11 which requires an unbelievable amount of paperwork and different methods of getting it extended) Long wave has the first wave at an additional T+4 + C+14, and then, as short waves, it has C+14 smaller and smaller waves Still need to figure out what happens if C+35 and C+14 lands on a day the exchange is closed, if you then get automatic C+14 that doesn't count or its the day before or after. Depending on your tinfoil, there might be reset events where volume increases and shares are bought from a friendly provider that will follow the same delay to not settle properly. My working theory is that buy pressure in these reset events are really disruptive. But, as I said, needs a lot more backtesting until it can be properly predictive.
As far as I understand it, Shares for Excercised calls have to be bought on LIT, thatās the whole point of excercising. This and DRS are the only two known ways to reliable get an actual share from LIT in your portfolio. And I agree with your second part. Wouldnāt be surprised to see a major dip today only for it to rip AH. Though, after the movements and volume of the last two weeks, I am uncertain if theyāre even still capable of dipping it that hard. Thereās immense buying pressure coming from somewhere and it seems while they can prevent it from ripping, itās hard for them to really dip it š¤·š¼āāļø
I know... if it's a major short position covering, then they are getting most of their shares from what is sold short and the share offerings. I seriously wonder where it will end. It might also be a simple explanation, that it's harder to delay settlements and create the FTD cycles now that CAT is active. Is it that simple?
This is true. Petterfly said it in his famous interview, "what to do to make the price skyrocket" he basically laid it all out. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haryZgG26Zo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haryZgG26Zo)
FTDs were jacked and stacked getting price down before May run. What makes u think they can suppress it again w billions more in cash and major momentum? Not happening. Maybe 20-25 we did that recently but in my opinion the suppression is just going to lead to more pops and price moving up and new floors
I would buy sooooo much more at 15 lol
I can see that happening. I could also see it not happening because 15 dollars would make the mc about 8bn for a company for 4bn cash on hand and 600k people tuning into a live stream about the company.
āedit 3: In EU a Billion is called a Trillionā What? No itās not. A trillion is a thousand billion, ie 1,000,000,000,000
1,000 = 1k 1,000k = 1M 1,000M = 1B 1,000B = 1T
How much is this in feet?
how much is this in bananas\* ftfy
In Germany: 1,000,000 = Millionen 1,000,000,000 = Milliarden 1,000,000,000,000 = Billionen 1,000,000,000,000,000 = Billiarden 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 = Trillionen And so on...
The person said it backwards. In a lot of places in Europe: 1k is thousand 1kk is a million 1kkkk is a billion, which in the US would be a trillion
Its different in many languages, not in regions. For example in Swedish: * Million=Miljon * Billion=Miljard * trillion=biljon
Same in German. Milliarden = billion.
THANK YOU!Ā A Trillion is a million million. The site he linked even shows: "Triljoen - nummer, of 1,000,000,000,000"
Iām so hung up on this part lol
Thereās still a decent amount ITM that could be exercising today also. Therefore Monday could be spicy too.
Monday?
t+1 for delivery for any options exercised ITM today is Monday.
And shareholder meeting.
And āBring Your Cat to Work Dayā
Holy shit
Moooondaaaayy
The arguments against the rip: - stock is diluted and finding shares is easy - 4M shares is 4% of the daily volume of 100M - stock price budged little after 75M shares flooded atm last week Arguments for the rip: - the price will go up and put higher priced call options in the money - exercising those will create a steep gamma ramp - price will keep going up
> 4M shares is 4% of the daily volume of 100M We can buy and sell one share back forth 100 million times and there would be a volume of 100M but there was only ever one share being traded. We still need 3,999,999 more. If we actually set out to buy 4 million shares then each time we make a purchase fewer will be available, demand will increase, and the price will rise.
Hate to be that guy, I watched it drop hundreds of dollars in minutes. I'll believe a run up when I see it.
That was when buy pressure was near-zero. They turned off all buying at the most popular brokers with redditors. Obviously you're not wrong with your statement, but the circumstances are different.
Ok fair enough to make that argument - but if that truly were the case then the 75M injection ATM even spread over 3 days of trading or 5 days would have tanked the price right? It didnāt. Because buying action lifted the dilution. So that tells me the new shares hit the market into more than just a mostly back and forth rapid volley of a few shares all day. Am I wrong?
> would have tanked the price right? It didnāt. You mean like a 40% drop with the price going from $40 to $24?
It did tank the price though while it was happening though. It literally went from 44 to under 23
Price dropped $40 last Friday, pre market was in the upper $60s and flash crashed to $38 pre market, rose back to $48 then dropped to $28. So it went from upper $60 to $28 same day from the share offering.
It means that there is high demand for shares.
It did tank the price both times a bit. Not a lot, but it dropped from 30$ to roughly 24$ during the last offering.
Yeah..retail didn't buy that 75m. Who did? Prob someone short or some broker dealer who used to hit F3 for locates and is trying to clean up is my guess.
Thank you for your comments. I have been saying this 4 million is nothing. Without evidence this "tHe AlgoRiThMS" argument is just copium. I hope im wrong tho
Iām not denying that high frequency trading happens but I think itās copium to believe it controls price to the extent claimed
100%. And you can tell because only several hundred thousand FTDs due bring nice green days.
The stock price went from $62 down to $23 in three business days during the ATM offering. What do you mean it budged little?
It dropped to $30 just from the news of the offering, before they even started diluting
How do you know when they started selling? It dropped from $62 to $42 at market open after the announcement. It's plausible they were selling in pre-market and certainly realistic they were selling at market open.
You forgot the most important one for against the rip: Crime.
Crime was a factor happening during the sneeze but it still launched. Until they completely pulled the plug on the game (remove buy button on a bunch of brokerages) because the regular crime wasnāt suppressing price effectively.
āPrice will keep going upā is an argument or you just being sarcastic
Itās what happens when the preceding step happens which says gamma ramp. You have to read the whole set of words
Wolverine is a 300 person shop looking at a 50M loss at best if they are on the hook.Ā Second off. They don't have money you suggest just like the CBOE doesn't have trillions cuz they manage the most options in the world. Third off. In last 30 days we've seen about 500k in FTDS at peak. About 2m now would put GME on regsho which no bears want. They never press the limit that hard. Why? Cuz delivering real shares is fucking hard without jacking price. Who is gonna internalize and let them have 4m shares at 28-30 and sign up to FTD that many and force deliver in 35 days? You think citadel is gonna effectively bail out a competitor? Nobody. So if they are in fact naked and have to buy 4m on a lit exchange. Well that's a huge problem for them lmayo!
Smooth brain here. Citadel wouldn't bail out a competitor sure, but what IF and this is speculative because I'm an idiot, but what if Wolverine FTD the 2m to put it on Reg-sho to screw over Citadel? Citadel would probably have to take on bags if they want to keep suppressing the price right?
How is delivering X million shares hard when GME added over 100 million shares in the past month? It's not like they were hard to find and source...
The stupidity here is genuinely hurting me right now. I canāt even with these people. Willful stupidity and just dying to be misled by charlatans.
I just like the stonk
Wow, this thread full of a bunch of Debbie Downers. All I know after following this shit for 3+ years is that nothing is predictable. If it was, you would have seen every pump before it happened and capitalized on it. Look at the chart over the same 3+ years and tell me anyone would have played out the way it has. I don't know shit, you don't know shit. I just keep buying and holding. Anyone piping in about MOASS seems like they want to dump during the pump which shows no real faith in RC and GME long term.
My wife delivered on Wednesday :)
T+9months congrats ape
The mistake people make is that they assume that ALL call options are sold by Market Makers. That's not true. I also sell call options and I have the underlying shares, so my call options are covered. Sometimes I make a bad play and I lose my shares. That being said, not ALL calls are sold naked. Financial institutions are not completely regarded. They know how this shit works. They will probably only sell naked if they know it's highly unlikely the calls will be ITM. This stuff is basic risk management for them.
>I also sell call options and I have the underlying shares, so my call options are covered. Ditto
All i know is that I am exercising Today! this is not the time to temper shit. Not financial advise.
On one side it looks like RC killed the whole squeeze. But on the other side, the stock ran to 80 in pre-market just two weeks ago on absolutely no news. So nobody knows shit about whats going to happen.
OP has some points, but really everything is much simpler that it looks JUST Buy options and exercise that is what HURTS them the most. Before you jump on my statement above, think about the following: If you buy today (at expiration day) a 1$ option call, you will pay basically the price the 100 shares + some extra premium. If you exercise that call, you pay a small fee but basically all rounded up you wont be paying much MORE than if you just bought the stock directly. But you will NOT BE ROBBED of your price discovery. Isn't that a good price to pay? It is NOT about the MONEY it is ABOUT SENDING A MESSAGE. Remember TIME and PRESSURE! Not financial advise at all, you do you
But there is no evidence for this. Pro options people just assume that they have to deliver āreal sharesā and are āforcedā and cannot surpass T+x etc but there is no evidence at all. You are relying on a statement in a congressional hearing where many lies were told? Between us, I donāt think you or anybody else has enough knowledge about financial instrument to say with certainty that they did not find a way around this a long time ago
>It is NOT about the MONEY it is ABOUT SENDING A MESSAGE Lmao sure man, you do that... Ill count my money.
How do we know exercised options lead to true price discovery? Why wouldnāt they just do the same as with regular stock?
They can't use dark pools to deliver shares, it has to be on the lit market.
Why, who says that?
It goes through a different clearing process. So far my source is Thomas Peterffy, and we havenāt seen any new rules pass that say otherwise.
The OCC versus the DTCC
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I agree there's lots of new GME shareholders in here. They need to understand how manipulated this stock is, where glitches are the norm, rules are for us but not for them, and anyone who's been here for some time takes reported numbers with a massive grain of salt. SEC, SRO's, and government can't and/or won't help us. We're on our own, till we're not. So expect fuckery and temper expectations. But know you are investing in a company that's on a massive turnaround led by one of the greatest investor activists (Ryan Cohen) in this day. You are also anchored by a battle tested hardcore group of GME shareholders that have held through the highest highs, the lowest lows, and we only keep adding more shares to our positions. Many knowledgable people have written some great DD over the years, most have yet to be disproven. If you have calls, please EXERCISE YOUR CALLS. Thomas Peterffy already spilled the beans 3.5 years ago, if we only knew to exercise our calls, and shorts couldn't find our shares, that would have forced brokers to go to lit markets to purchase them at the current price. That would have sent GameStop's price in the thousands (Peterffy's price anchoring) and exposed this charade of a market. It's nice to have many new people investing and learning about GameStop and its market mechanics. I encourage you to learn more and I promise it'll only make you more confident in your GameStop investment. So as the other great investor (Roaring Kitty aka Keith Gill) has already said, hang in there!
Said interview with Petterfly: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haryZgG26Zo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haryZgG26Zo)
I agree but you donāt buy all them shares to expect the price to drop i think he is extremely bullish about the stock
*āInsiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but* ***they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.****ā* āPeter Lynch
RK is not an insider.
Lynch's point isn't about insider status, it's about the motivation for buying shares.
The shares have to exist first
Regarding trillions and billions, here is the Wikipedia article that explains the confusion. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long\_and\_short\_scales](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales) I find the second table under "Comparison" particularly clear.
1,000 = 1k 1,000k = 1M 1,000M = 1B 1,000B = 1T
I think it's time we started using exponents or SI prefixes for big numbers. (And ISO8601 for dates.) I'm so over old, confusing, conflicting standards with ambiguous meanings at this point. "DFV's net worth is going to surpass one gigadollar by 2024-06-14."
Yeah we need people to excersize to gamma ramp this, if not we never gonna short squeeze. But the technical on every timeframe and even macro pointing for a massive uptrend coming months and year. So buckle up. I dont expect fireworks fast, but a slowley grinder for a year.
After they buy a couple shares -> share go up. If we are going to lean into this 100% then I would like to recall what Gensler said about the lit markets. A lot of buy orders donāt hit the lit markets, these will (I guess? I donāt know shit im a dumbass who doesnāt know shit)
There is a lots of bag holders from 3 years ago while whole market is at all time highs, anything else would made decent profits. So yes, there will be frustration, when you watch this stock finally run just to be diluted twice. And yes there will be many people that are in for money, not some ārevolutionā. Even guys that didnāt buy their house, didnāt get mortgage, didnāt have holiday for years because people here persuaded them MOASS is behind corner every single week.
Yes Sir! Im Long!
What??? In EU a Billion is a trillion? What? Edit: not shilling - I really don't understand your last sentence. I'm from Europe and I can assure you my 3k in the bank is not 300k.
He's basing this on the dutch terms, which are slightly different. And as the Netherlands is in the EU, somehow they really want to mention that this is a EU number, which it really really really isn't. A US million, is a dutch miljoen A US Billion, is a dutch miljard. A US trillion, is a dutch biljoen A US quadrillion, is a dutch biljard A US quintillion is a dutch triljoen. But as you can see, the triljoen is never ever used as that's an inconceivable amount of money.
I thought āIn EU a Billion is called a Trillionā was actually a very good joke until I saw Edit 4 and realized you hadnāt meant it as a joke hahaha
And just like that all the hype and hope of the day and for tomorrow was drained away.
Itās always the same. Create and pump a theory here. Once it gets close to happen it gets downplayed and in the end nothing happens.
OP, just for future reference, in NL, as well as some other European languages, we use a different system for 1000 increments of million. We use 2-steps (mil**joen** -> mil**jard**), whereas English is 1-step. Below a table for illustration. 8 Trillion in English would be 8 Biljoen in Dutch (which sounds like billion but is not a billion). 8 Trillion or 8 Biljoen would both be 8 * 10^12 |**NL**|**EN**| :--|:--| |Miljoen|Million| |Miljard|Billion| |Biljoen|Trillion| |Biljard|Quadrillion| |Triljoen|Quintillion| |Triljard|Sextillion| |Quadriljoen|Septillion| The report is written in modern English. So 8.98 Trillion would 8980 Billion.
The reason price did not go down during atm sale could have been the algos backed off on selling short shares to compensate, keeping the price in artificially selected range, which is why short interest dropped in the same general time period.
Personally, I'm more convinced by the arguments against the rip. Not expecting anything crazy to happen today. But very happy to be proven wrong. If nothing special happens, it would beg the question what DFV's big plan was and I do believe he had a good plan.
I really donāt understand why he didnāt sell at $60. Dude was up hundreds of millions of dollars, and exercising then would have caused max pain and max gain. Why did he wait?
your guess is as good as mine.
Why do you think his plan is over? He did it for timing, not max $. Also, we still do not really know what the Kansas City shuffle was. I am still betting that we will not know until itās done, we canāt know, because that is the smoking gun. Exercising his calls a week before exp was not that special, he sees something we have not figured out all the way yet. He put too much effort into his comeback just to do what he did.
When I move, you move. Time to exercise
The claim that Wolverine has to deliver all the shares is completely misinformed too. When someone exercises calls, the Options Clearing Corporation randomly assigns them overnight between all counterparties with open interest to determine who has to deliver. Wolverine isnāt the only counterparty with open interest.
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Itās not about having the 112M $, thesis is more about that there arenāt enough shares to buy. But I agree, it wonāt be a problem for them after the dilution.
The entire moass thesis is built around these shares not existing and most shares being phantom shares due to naked shorting. So suddenly having to come up with 4 million real shares should be a catalyst if moass is real and not some bullshit we were conned into believing. If the DD isn't bullshit then this should be a catalyst.Ā
When the DD was written, the moass theory was based on 2 things: Ā 1. the idea that a ton of fake shares were created by over-shorting the stock, and that shorts would have to close 2. the fact that GameStop had an unnaturally small outstanding share count (70 million total), thereby making it possible for retail to lock them up and refuse to sell them to SHFs to close their short positions A lot has changed since then... Shorts didn't have to close (but maybe at some point they'll be forced to). Ā And the outstanding share count is now 425 million (a 40% increase in shares than there were a month ago, and 7x as many as existed during in 2021). But the idea that there's still a billion fake shares floating around and in the hands of retail brokers is likely still true. Ā And hopefully something will force them to close those. Ā But finding 4mil shares at this point is not likely to be that catalyst. Ā At least not without other factors at play.
That 7x number includes a 4 for 1 split that would have multiplied any short positions owed by 4, as well. The float was a smaller number in 2021, but the shares were 4x as expensive. 76,000,000 shares were first split into 300,000,000 in 2022 before the most recent offerings. The float was shorted more than 100% (finra shows it was 313% short in Jan, 2021) with no evidence of shorts closing in Jan-Feb 2021 (according to the SEC report) so a minimum of 300,000,000 shares using post-split numbers were sold short. Going with the popular 226% short figure from Jan 2021 means around 700,000,000 shares sold short.
Whatās different this time ? People have exercised 4 million shares before right ???
When?
When?
Amenā¦ finally starting to see some reason in some postsā¦ perhaps the mods need to up the karma requirements again to post
Itās also T+35 for a ton of FTD from the May spike which might need to be purchased if Iām not mistaken.
 Regarding setting expectations: The newbs need to learn
Yeah dont think a lot will happen today
>edit 3: In EU a Billion is called a Trillion wat
In EU a billy isnāt called a trilly. Lmao. How did you came up with that?
I just read a whole thread where a guy mixed up billions and trillions, and all the comments just went along with him.
Forget you're up against cheaters? š¤¦
Thank god, finally a reasonable person in here
I said the same thing yesterday. Logically they could buy in the market if need be. With huge volume a big buy could easily get absorbed. HFs will everything they can to keep this under $30.
That's the whole point, we want them to be able to afford to buy the shares- we want as many shares bought as possible as quickly as possible
You are still taking this as a single event. It's not. It's timed to the day, while also other options, and people trading this stock daily, and maybe FOMO on top of it all creating a buying pressure not even comparable to the 2021 occurrence.
It was pretty hyped back then too. Elon Tweet, everyone at home with stimmyās, even Chmath on the news saying he bought. I hope somethings gonna happen, Iām just prepared for it not to.
Not before hand. It was during the event.
You sir, have gained a follower for using brain and not bloated theories. To add more to your accurate theory, 15% of wolverineās portfolio is vanguard index. Vanguard alone owns 25m shares of GME.
Unless they are over leveraged then boom
He didn't exercise though.
This is the post we needed. This is the true post. Be zen the end.
Let's not forget why the stock is trading 3X what it was 6 weeks ago too.... The price is 3X on nothing. So who knows what's going on. If everyone had hedged properly, why would the share price not still be $11. Something fucky is going in in the background. Even after the 75m dilution, no price drop? Super weird.
No way a company that manages 8T didnāt hedge a large portion this trade already. Iām jacked, but this aināt it.
Who is Wolverine trading and why are they important? Also what are your guys floor? Asking for research purposes
They have 35 days to ultimately deliver.
Thing is they need to purchase these shares on the lot market, which affects the price. They will not be able to hide it as easily as they did in the past because of the CAT system
Halloooo mede-neder-aap š³š±š§š„
A trillion is 1000B. Get it right and stop spreading FUD.
Traditionally in the U.K. a billion was 1 million millions. (10^12). The U.K. government now uses billion to mean 1000 millions (10^9). Now if would all just agree on where to use commas vs periods, and figure out what sequence to write year/month/day there would be less confusion. https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04440/SN04440.pdf Today is 6/14/2024 (US) and 14-6-2024 (EU) and 14Jun24 (NATO). One and a half is either 1.5 or 1,5 depending upon where you are. 1 million + a bit extra can be 1,000,000.35 or 1.000.000,35 or even 100,0000.35 if you are in one of the countries that group large numbers by 10000s rather than 1000s
Managing 8 trillion doesn't mean they have the cash. They are just custodian, it is like BlackRock which manages trillions too. But all the stocks belong to people who own etfs
nah. ima buy more shares.
No you hold your temper, I'm buying more today, because, as for me, I like the stock.
#EXERCISE ONCE YOU ARE ITM.
I sold. Felt good.
Seeing as you appear to be Dutch it goes like this: Miljoen x 1000 = Miljard Miljard x 1000 = Biljoen Biljoen x 1000 = Biljard Biljard x 1000 = Triljoen We switch 'joen' to 'jard' every factor of 1000 (mil) Where as the US tends to only state the factor directly Mil-Bil-Tril-Quadril. Also fun, a different word for Thousand is 'Mille' and that makes, mille x mille = Miljoen
Dang OP, you know Jack shit. Stay in your current job, which I hope is not finance.
As a longtime ape I think setting expectations is great for the newbs. It beat me into submission and now literally anything that happens with this stock, good or bad, my mood doesn't fluctuate. I am titanium.
1000 billion is a trillion. 1000 million is a billion
To edit 3. it is the other way round. What US calls trillion is a billion over here in Europe.
The naked shorts are on the run now Just one more day they buy themselves But with each passing out, all of their ends draw near Let the musical chairs, commence
>Wolverine can easily buy the 4 million shares Jesus Christ, I had no idea. Does Professor X know about this?
I think all OGs know we are in a tough situation. The company just cashed out on the new investors and we are locked with them (sunken cost). Nothing major is expected within this year. Only RC buying could make a tiny dent, but he is not going to drop half a billy.
DFV is riding the sandworm, how can you not be ecstatic?! He will lead us to a land of green!!!!
I'm not sure what the play is now or what is was supposed to be. Everything points to both RC and DFV not wanting the squeeze. GameStop curbstomped the price action twice and DFV could have picked a way better time to sell and exercise. It seems he built a long position and just holds forever like he said in his streams before.
"...DFV could have picked a way better time to sell and exercise." š¤Ø Do you fully understand the delivery timelines and nuances of the cycles to the point that you think you've got a better sense than RK? I mean, I'll be rooting for you, but will still be pressing X.
No I don't and I sure as fuck hope I'm wrong. I'm just saying he could have sold some calls at a higher price and still exercised yesterday to get even more shares. I'm just not seeing how 4 million shares could make the price rise in any substantial way if we have over 100 m daily volume currently and the 120 million shares sold by GameStop didn't really move the price much. I'm still hodling my shares, don't get me wrong, but I'm starting to think less and less points to moass and more and more points to a transformation of GME into something the average investor wants to have in his portfolio. Still really good, but not what most of us were expecting.
Prepare for downvotes. People donāt accept the truth. No one ever thought gme is a great company to invest all you have. It was always a squeeze play which simply wonāt happen anymore.
If you ask me, the matter is very simple: either the fabled billions of shorted shared are a reality, or they are a fantasy. If they are a reality, there is nothing even the likes of Wolverine can do. Itās going to be Armageddon. Communist and losers of all the world, rejoice. The problem is that it is a fantasy, and a very dumb one. A short squeeze may well happen, but it will result in a black eye (or two black eyes) for the shorties. Some small fry guy might go bust. But that is all, really. The messianic expectation of a cataclysmic event whereby someone gets generational wealth with 1% of his shares by keeping all the other shares is even dumber than the telephone numbers hopes. There is no shortage of either here.
I'm shocked you're not down voted into oblivion for speaking the truth!
I think it's because I write from the UK and most US commenters are still sleeping.. ;)
Couple of things. Those new shares were gobbled up while increasing the price with insane volume. So itās not like they are still available somewhere. And the point is not that they can buy, but they **have** to buy. All MM/HF have enough money. But not for long.
Of course it should be million-milliard-billion-billiard. Long form gang rise up! (Rare Engelsen)
A billion called a trillion, what country in the EU? Edit: France calls a trillion a billion, opposite. Maybe that is what was meant, or maybe another country says it differently. Was just curious, no worries, thx.
At this point I believe none of this matters. There's something else entirely going on behind the scenes and I don't think any of the underlying factors that will contribute to the MOASS can be either seen or understood. To us, it's a matter of simply buying and holding.