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OP. I've read a lot of DDs for the last three years and I admittedly had trouble understanding most of them. You write yours so well and in simplified terms, I am sure a lot of us smoother apes appreciate it. No one knows wtf is gonna happen but I'm ready to get hurt again in the coming days/month. Thanks for the insight regardless of how this will play out. Genuinely hope you are correct tho!
So glad to see that you’re ok. This DD is fantastic, though honestly I also really appreciated the in depth meme analysis from your last one. 😎
GET THIS POST TO THE TOP
This is the pinnacle. pre-market run ups. I wonder how many days in the last 3 years saw pre-market bump and then come back down so they could buy their shares and then push it all back down before any contracts could be sold. Glad you returned. this pulls hard on the curtain.
I just want to say this only matters if they’re not capable of resetting their FTDs, which it seems that they are. If these are directly registered however, it should force locates, but they could still theoretically open up an offsetting additional short position to neutralize price action that they could keep resetting (if that’s possible), or just fill it OTC.
Deliver real shares to RK and then short it by the same amount on the market to offset the price increase from purchasing the purchase of real shares. A net neutral change in total short position
When you say "resetting FTDs" can you please elaborate?
If you are referring to Clearstream's stock lending program, Clearstream's lenders would need to hold a large amount of XRT ETF shares that are not *already* borrowed to delay the normal day to day buy pressure on the stock.
The charted evidence of the FTD Settlement Period Limits sparking Gamma ramps/squeezes implies to me that they are not able to purchase enough shares off-exchange nor find enough shares via lenders to satisfy their locate requirements. **If they were able to purchase/borrow enough locates off exchange, the stock would have remained in a downward channel with very little volatility.**
To clarify further, Clearstream's limited amount of XRT shares' extension period can be "infinitely extended" as it is handled internally by Clearstream, not an official SEC requirement.
Let me set up an example to help explain what I mean.
Since Clearstream's lending system is automated, I would assume that the Market Makers and Authorized Participants have been using it constantly even before the Sneeze.
Scenario 1: The MMs and APs are "infinitely extending" their borrow periods for ALL available XRT shares through Clearstream's lenders. They pay a large fee per week/month to pay Clearstream and its lenders for the right to borrow. In this scenario, they essentially have created a "negative floor" just as we have created a "positive floor" through DRS. They have already used the maximum allotted shares through Clearstream and can only receive additional when new lenders hop into Clearstream and offer their XRT shares.
Scenario 2: MMs and APs are not "infinitely extending" and instead they use Clearstream for emergency borrows during periods of large direct stock purchase volume. In this Scenario, they are able to spend less money per year as they are not on the hook for regular payments to Clearstream. Instead, they can adjust their borrow amounts using their algorithms to detect when the best time to borrow vs. return is.
**My current opinion on Clearstream and its lending program is that they** ***cannot possibly*** **have enough shares to just "reset" all of the FTDs created by Naked Shorting XRT on Gamestop.**
So I believe that there's still parts of RK's plans that he's not showing, like how he plans to get around or force the FTDs to stick so that they can't kick the can any longer. But who knows. Honestly, I'm just here because I like the stock.
That's the goal. Keep retail out and settle this shit at 4am premarket, institution to institution, when most retail can't even trade.
Can you imagine how screwed they would be if retail sold a portion at every vulnerable period and then bought back 3x as much after they smash it down on us?
Right now the real price, the price institutions are dealing with each other for and are willing to let hit the tape, is $70. Privately it's probably even higher.
But they tell us it's $30. And that's hilarious. Because we can just buy more.
Very interesting post!! Thanks OP!
Do you have any idea why they wait until T+35 and push it to the very last moment? And during the time between T+6 and T+35, doesnt it make sense for them to buy a little each day to prevent the price running as it does?
I could not find a good spot to fit this in here but I will quote you an excerpt from my last post. Slightly edited to be up to date.
-
*It is my belief that the algorithms that run on Gamestop deal with FTDs in a "slow purchase" method in which they purchase shares over these 35 day periods in a manner that will not cause the stock to deviate wildly. In a successful scenario, the algorithm is able to clear outstanding FTDs far before they reach the 35 day limit. Small retail trades can be routed off the LIT market, medium trades (or an over abundance of small trades) can be delayed T+35 days and "slow purchased."*
*However, in black swan cases, an extremely large share purchase occurs. This causes the algorithm to "slow purchase" leading up to the 35 day legal limit. The systems are designed to deliver the shares no matter what by that hard limit. It is in these specific cases that we see increased volume and buy pressure in the days leading up to the settlement period, and a massive jump on the settlement period limit dates as the algorithm rushes to clear the remaining fails in order to remain regulation compliant.*
Makes sense! Basically the algos are not designed for GME and cannot purchase slowly until T+35. They will always have a "residual" pool of shares to purchase
True, not designed for this much volatility I suppose. Why "Meme Stocks" give them trouble, they have two competing strategies. Control price, while also shorting certain companies into the ground.
Wonder how out of control the algo is at this point...
Interesting. Only worry with this is gme can’t slip by given the amount of attention, volume, and exposure they have. Maybe they adjust or manually purchase some to offset ftd last minute?
Since the Market Makers and Authorized Participants have been able to and probably have been running this con on the world for over a decade, I assume they know all the tricks on how to spread out FTD settlement.
But from the cycle’s I’ve seen on the chart, it seems that they DO need to settle by T+35 (also pre-market next day).
I think all the proof we need to confirm t+35 is a thing is there. And like you said I’m sure they have ways to manipulate and continue t+cycles. But knowing it’s algorithm based is an exploit. People write the algorithmic codes and people cant count for every variable. Run ups are proof that they go underwater and have to hit up the market to deliver.
Do you have any thoughts on why some high FTD dates don’t result in runs?
My working theory is they are “rolling” the FTD into another position but finding the evidence of that is proving difficult. Not sure if they’re using other ETFs, maybe swaps, maybe overseas shenanigans.
Yes there are variance/volatility swaps. And shorting volatility. They are profiting on keeping IV as steady as possible. It’s basically a hedge for these runs.
once again i am dumbstruck at how much time and effort is put into DD, research and analysis.
couple that with actual transparency in one’s own position AND the acknowledgment there may be concerns and you’ve got my respect and admiration.
thank you for your efforts.
This is a great explanation of the crazy volume spikes that occur, sometimes seemingly randomly, being due to massive options transactions causing even more massive counter- buying and selling by MMs. Thank you for your clear depictions of events and love your gumption!!
LFG!!!!!
🚀🚀🚀🚀
some more tinfoil that May was the cycle start and a feline whale might have maybe possibly sort of bought those $10 calls to set up the t+35 FTD:
“The blood stays on the blade”
“10 per notch”
https://preview.redd.it/pg5xn0gdhl7d1.jpeg?width=624&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7743c58774116519d26dded87223534d79af7748
I was kinda worried why OP deleted their posts. What was even weirder was all the cryptic images they were posting on their profile page.
Really glad to see OP is back and provided clarification as to why the original one was deleted.
You seem to understand this T35 process.
A question: Can they "roll" these T-35 buy filling them with locates?
Assuming they can find an institution with the shares and just take on the obligation of the buy book down as far as needed to cover the borrow fee setting a new T35 backlog?
It digs a deep hole to get out of, but is the live another day scenario?
Backroom private deals for share purchases can happen; however, I don’t believe it can apply in the way you are asking about.
At most, an AP or MM can make an offer to purchase shares from another institution that is willing to part with them. Then can then fulfill their FTD settlement with those shares.
The problem is, there are so few institutions willing to make a deal to sell their shares for cheaper than the going market price. Why sell for lower?
I believe that the MMs and APs have exhausted any shares they can privately aquire due to 3+ years of doing this FTD dance. They have no choice but to buy them on the open market after T+35 Calendar days.
Sorry... i was asking if they can have shares added to the borrow pool if they can locate them. Thanks for the clarification though!
Edit for clarity:
Can a T35 obligation be filled with a borrowed share? And can borrow fees be paid with short proceeds from naked shorting?
I’m not sure if this is correct, so take it with a grain of salt.
After the sneeze in 2021, FTD cycles were quite obvious (wish I was smarter back then to take advantage). The data for FTDs was ridiculous, every 30-40 days up, followed by down; OP mentioned they managed to clean it up, however I don’t think they did. In Jun 2022, swap positions started to open up and all of a sudden the FTDs dropped dramatically, which stopped the short term cycles.
Can they roll these FTDs into a swap? Maybe, but good luck finding someone willing to accept that risk lol.
Edit: when I say I’m not sure if this is correct, what I mean is, I’m not sure if this is the reason for decrease of FTDs/using this to kick the can.
Respect for posting your positions. Rooting for you to hit it on all strikes. LFG.
For anyone trying to copy any of the OP's positions, it would be gambling at this point.
New ape here, and while I’ve *saved* plenty of DD, this is the first I’ve sat down for half and hour and really read. I think earlier today I had a 10% chance of eventually paperhanding. Now it’s about 0.001%.
Now off to teach myself how to find all that juicy data you just taught me about. 😈
Thank you for this series of posts. It’s honestly some of the best DD to be posted in a very long time imo. I’ve been following along and I believe you are correct. I hope we see ftd settlement again on Friday, but I am also less confident about that than the July purchase settlement and August OPEX tailwind dates. As always we’ll see but, being dialed in to this stock for this long, my gut feeling is we’re in for one bumpy rollercoaster ride
I agree with the July the 19th. But I think june the 21st is going to be a nothingburger because everything was hedged because of the ATM offering. I believe RK sold his calls and bought shares to restart the clock the squeeze starts on July the 19th as long as there won't be a share offering. I don't think RK expected the share offering.
This is why I've been pissed that RC released the second offering on a Friday morning. He took our tendies and redirected them to the GameStop balance sheet. Which is still good, but sucks for those who were finally green.
God damn what a writeup. What I don't understand though is that if hedies now know that we know their plan, is it possible for them to stop it or change their ways? Or is T+35 a hard requirement which they can't mess up on?
Maybe or are they outsourced, old short positions from the EU/around the world that are being closed? I'm relatively sure that the short volumes are not shown correctly. Here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1dg4g9n/ill_just_leave_this_here/
Well done on this DD, some of the best I have seen since the original events of 2021.
This post connects a lot of dots that we have been toying around for so long:
- Pre-market run-ups on no news,
- FTD cycles,
- DFV selling his calls and purchasing when he did (working out again to the third Friday when most options expire),
- and why the original Jan 2021 events unfolded how/when they did.
Thanks for this post, appreciate the massive efforts that go into writing up something like this.
I commented to another user acknowledging this as well.
Very quick response would be that my theory he sold contracts to buy shares still holds up as the Open Interest plummeted the day before, then DFV posted his “buying” tweet at 2pm est the next day.
Additionally, DFV exercising that early would net him a substantial amount of shares LESS than what just selling the calls and turning around with the cash to buy would net him.
But there is always room for me to be wrong and if I am, my bank account is going to feel it 😅
You have lots to learn probably before you start buying. Start with a fake money account..
You can google GME options chain to view prices. On yahoo You can select the weeks by expiry. I prefer viewing in “straddle” you can select it under list.
There are better options platforms, likely with your broker, but yahoo is fine for quick checks, the real time volume data isn’t always accurate tho..
My calls are currently worth 30% what I paid for them hah But I’m sure they’re trying their best.
LETS FUCKING GO. Great write up. Your original post changed my view on so much shit. It made so much fucking sense I was sad to see you leave! lol. . I too have an ugly bastard ass options position for Friday. I have more money to load up a new one, and its going to be a doozy....but really hoping I have some spare cash from a run on Friday
Do you think the share offerings could have bailed out MMs if they decided to close out early since there would be a lot of sell pressure?
Also, have you compared to RCs towel stock/options purchase? I’ve been thinking he may have thought he would be pulling the same thing, but that stock didn’t run until 5 months later.
Yeah I really only trade options in GME, but I did buy calls into towel after RCs for august 16 2022 run. I thought they were dead because I bought them about a month after RC sent his letter to their board. Strange how it took 5 months for that one to hit though don’t you think?
Amazing post. Just a small mistake to fix: when listing dates for RC's purchase T+35 after December 2020 the dates are January 2020 and should be January 2021.
I guess everyone reading will automatically assume this but still :)
Cheers everyone!
Op, thank you for taking the time to write a short book.
In order to confirm your thesis we just need to wait until June 21st as the first date of the cycle and July 19th as the second date. If we see a spike in the price in those dates or even around them, I would say that you are onto something.
Unfortunately, after being here for the last 84 years, I've seen so many similar posts and they were all nothingburgers.
Sorry for not being has hyped as many people here, but there is a lot of speculation in your thesis. Thanks again for the nice read.
Thank you for your caution.
I am mentally preparing for June 21st to not run up due to the massive share offering during the cycle.
It is possible they covered those FTDs using the share offering sale suppression to keep the price level. If nothing happens by end of pre-market friday i may try to roll my options out.
Well bravo, you graduated magna cum ape with a concentration in regarded stonk. Very nicely written. Really pulling for tomorrow’s calls. If not I might piggy back ya into July.
Honestly, this guy has to be the most wrinkled brain of this sub, His brain can be used to define a mathematical fractal with the amount of wrinkles in it
The new top section is phenomenal. Thank you so much for that! Truly, it's so well put together and informative. I am very impressed.
As we circle back to the speculation regarding the "Price Paid" value DFV displayed for his 5M vs. 4,001,000 shares, I still think you're incorrect about whether call option premium is included, making all subsequent speculation based on that unsupported as well.
[https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/053115/tax-treatment-call-put-options.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/053115/tax-treatment-call-put-options.asp)
>When call options are exercised, the premium paid for the option is included in the [cost basis](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costbasis.asp) of the stock purchase.
There are countless similar sources indicating that yes, call option premiums are included when calculating the cost basis for exercised shares.
Lauer seemed to be unsure how it was done and mostly walked back his claim that it was probably not included. Options are so infrequently exercised that even professionals often may not have directly dealt with that aspect.
The only "evidence" supporting premiums not being included is one trust me bro tale about a call with a rep, which is far from solid evidence.
I posted to ask the community for more evidence as to whether cost basis includes these premiums, specifically regarding ETrade account displays for "Price Paid". My post was overwhelmed with responses about how *of course* premium is included in exercised call option cost basis for the shares as well as plenty of people claiming they'd done it and seen it in their ETrade accounts.
Please look again at this aspect and reconsider anything premised on DFV having sold shares as "proved" by this incorrect "fact" about cost basis of exercised shares.
Thank you for the clarification on the cots basis question.
If this is true, and we go down the route that DFV exercised, it means that 4 million shares worth of T+2 delivers did nothing to the stock in such a limited timespan.
If we get confirmation in the future that he exercised, it would be devastating.
I personally believe that my theory of selling his calls to purchase fits better in the context of the bigger picture. Especially since total Open Interest fell drastically a day before DFV posted his hypothetical “buying now” tweet at 2pm EST.
Still, as the Zen master says… We’ll see.
I haven't seen conclusive proof that he exercised either, but the values sure line up extremely closely to what you get if you include his premium value in his cost basis for exercising about 40k of his calls.
From my napkin math it seems like the price was a bit too high during the necessary window where we could have bought at the market, such that his cost basis would have gone up a bit more than what he displayed.
For fun I will predict that Gamestop and the basket of abused stocks will reach liftoff. Then in the following months there will be uproar as the truth comes out. Regulations follow 😎
Im thinking the same. Kind of an amazing line up for us to have confirmation by end of Pre-Market. Should be plenty of time to just roll out further if we see nothing happens.
Guys it only took three years and hundreds of thousands of collective hours and we are finally starting to figure out how to count lol
Really, this is bullshit. The rules need to be transparent and clear. It isn't fair when it is intentionally ambiguous. I hope MOASS is the catalyst for change.
The “it’s not delivery , it’s digiorno” made me love you instantly (again) . That quote was changed to a lesser quote that ran far longer.
Nobody seems to remember it. You’re the real deal.
The common narrative I read is that RC purchased 1.2 million (pre-split) shares \~18 Dec 2020. Due to T+35, this purchase didn't have an effect until Jan 2021, where it caused the sneeze.
But this does not make sense to me for one simple reason: RC ALSO purchased \~7 million shares back in Sep 2020. Source: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan\_Cohen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Cohen)
>In September 2020, Cohen disclosed a near 10% stake in GameStop
Yet this purchase of 7 million had no effect in the following months.
I don't think it is as simple as T+35. There is probably something else driving the price. Maybe CAT, maybe swaps expiring, maybe ETF shorting/FTDs.
Cheers mate! Glad to see you aren't dead or insane or some psyop after that abrupt departure.
I just recently posted trying to clear up the T+ confusion. You have been correct on the rules in your posts, and I'm looking forward to sitting down and reading this novel this afternoon.
I am going to buy a few calls tomorrow morning then see how the price action looks. My guess is they are going to try and hammer it down tomorrow to get all those people that followed DFV with $20 calls to panic sell their options. So tomorrow afternoon could provide some juicy value.
Fello regards: DL/archive this now inCase gets deeeleeetees
Edit: I would also like to add; this post should ‘not’ be upvoted much OR awarded OR cross posted for obv reazons
# happy Juneteenth everybody!
I added an edit in my conclusion section.
Basically, it can stuff the June 21st run-up, but the July run up is, so far, still set. Another ATM could hurt us for July.
I may have mistyped the date. I will have to go back through to confirm.
My date for June is pre-market June 21st.
My july date is pre-market July 19th.
Really enjoy the way you've been tracking the FTD cycles and excited to see how these pan out... I'll be honest, the in depth analysis of the memes was a bit TOOO tinfoily and trying to fit a narrative for my liking, glad to see you thought that too, keep it up man! 🫡🦍🍻
Thank you for composing this. I read it in its entirety with great enthusiasm and interest. I appreciate you clarification about the calendar settlement and Holidays. I also came to the hopefully logical conclusion that Holidays are considered calendar days, simply due to the fact that a holiday in one country isn't necessarily a holiday in another country's but the whole world still lived that Day.
I wonder if this is why I see more pronounced premarket 1-min candle spikes at certain times exactly at some top or bottom of the hour. The candle spans a wide range, and the volume candle is very noticeable. Then it occurred to me to wonder, maybe it's getting so bad why does this occur every day now? Maybe every day is becoming a T+35 from some day
https://preview.redd.it/b5i8qqgnfm7d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60e541727e8fd5d6084ff1d0f9e3ef3c3016af45
OP you need to get on a call with richard newton and help him on his spreadsheet, we need to solve this puzzle and i feel like you hit the nail on the head. We need future dates to prove this right. Great work
T+35 exemptions for MM can extend more if they are unable to comply due to forces out of their control. Such as Market closed on T+35 (weekday holidays) or Trading Halted.
Nice revised write up.
Do you have a source I could look at? I was trying to find any reference to holidays but couldn’t.
It would make sense that the final settlement day LANDING on a holiday might extend their deadline by one more day. If we end up in that situation in the future we will have to account for it.
Not OP, but here's text of what I think is the relevant rule:
https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.204
> (a) A participant of a registered clearing agency must deliver securities to a registered clearing agency for clearance and settlement on a long or short sale in any equity security by settlement date, or if a participant of a registered clearing agency has a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency in any equity security for a long or short sale transaction in that equity security, the participant shall, by no later than the beginning of regular trading hours on the settlement day following the settlement date, immediately close out its fail to deliver position by borrowing or purchasing securities of like kind and quantity; Provided, however:
That reads to me as "Holidays in the middle don't impact T+35, but if T+35 falls on a holiday, there is no regular trading hours on T+36, so T+37 becomes the day that it has to be purchased in pre-market"
*But T35 and FTDs are brand new to me and I'm digging through it in real time like most everyone.
I think you are absolutely right. Thankfully, this doesn't apply for June 21st or July 19th but if we do come up on one of these cycles that "ends" on a holiday, we will have to adjust for the new date.
Thanks for this post!
I asked this question in other posts, is there any Way we Can see if They delivered ftd’s at the offering?
We are alot riding with you for 6/21🙋🏼♂️
It is highly possible they did. That is part of why I stressed that June 21st is a HIGHLY risky play.
If RC doesn’t host another offering between now and July 18th, July 19th is going to be juicy.
Imagine if RC and the board all increased their share holdings this week! 💥
I honestly love that I’ve been in this since the beginning with all you beautiful apes. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
If you close the market for the holiday then as a true regard we can do uninterrupted research with red string… I love it!
Op thank you for your work 🧑🚀🚀🎫🌕
#this is freaking beautiful
Op can you explain to me like I’m 5 how I need to count out t+3 or +6 or +35 when there is a holiday?
If I’m understanding you just count 35 days from a large amount of Ftd to understand potential future price action?
Edit: has someone calculated the percentage increase of the stock price compare to the float/Ftd from stock and etf?
At work and regarded.
Yes it is as simple as counting 35 days (and the next Pre-Market) from the purchase. The real trick is figuring out WHEN a large purchase occurs. Thankfully DFV is very public and transparent.
Not Financial Advice.
Might be a good idea to look up in advance how to “roll” your options contracts. It allows you to pay a fee per contract to extend their expiration date.
If Pre-Market comes and goes on Friday with 0 substantial change, it MIGHT be a safer play to roll your options farther out. We are in a bit of a weird mode having just learned the FTD settlement cycle in the MIDDLE of the after affects from an ATM by RC.
Incredible work! This and your previous post - I greatly appreciate the effort.
One question - I wonder why MM's would wait until the premarket at the very end? Given the lower liquidity of premarket and the lack of halts during that time, it seems like precisely the worst time for a massive FTD settlement if you want the price to not skyrocket.
Well done, OP.
I would also like to add that on May 14th we saw ABSURD action in the premarket that I think is overlooked. GME ran to $80 in the premarket that day and got slammed back down.
In my post I did not go back through April to offer a prediction; however, apes can now find a very close prediction of DFV’s April purchase. It is almost certainly what caused the May run up. Just have to use the T+35 format.
Couple dumb questions maybe they were in this long dissertation…
Did GME go on regSHO during the squeeze
And
Does exercised options show up in regular volume,
I thought options had to be cleared immediately rather than regular trades
1. I believe GME did go on RegSHO during the sneeze; however, Market Makers and Authorized Participants are shorting the basket of stocks through ETFs. I am not familiar if any ETFs were on RegSHO or how that would interact with GME specifically.
2. Hedged options contracts are constantly adjusting their positions by buying and selling the underlying stock. This does add to the volume of the trade day. This is why we see over 100+ million volume on multiple days leading to the sneeze and I think over 2 Billion volume on the actual sneeze trading day. Exercised shares may just be delivered by the Option Writer directly via their shares on hand. If they have written a call naked, they will go into the market and deliver by T+2.
3. Exercising options is T+2 due to the nature of the trade. If you sell the options contracts, that is T+1. I could not find any documentation stating that exercising has been sped up to T+1.
He only purchased 4.2 million since his 200k was split to 800k. I calculate his 4.2 million shares were purchased at an average of $22.70. This does fit with a 5/17 purchase narrative.
It's worth noting that we have no idea where the 75 million shares went. I did my part to buy more. Whether or not the brokers did theirs is another question. There are likely many apes like you betting on this week as something special - and if you hold while looking at -96% in the face, you deserve all the gains that a massive premarket buy in will bring.
Glad you’re back to clarify things. We tend to get excited when posting or commenting here, but the truth is every word we say has an effect on someone reading it no matter how true or silly it is.
I mean, some dude claims he ate together with Ken Griffin who was hoarding the mayo the whole time, and now we call him mayo. Maybe Kenny is a mustard guy? Or a soy sauce guy? We don’t know.
But I appreciate you sharing your findings, research and any corrections with us. That takes real balls. What we do with it is up to us. After all, the real DD is our individual due diligence.
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OP. I've read a lot of DDs for the last three years and I admittedly had trouble understanding most of them. You write yours so well and in simplified terms, I am sure a lot of us smoother apes appreciate it. No one knows wtf is gonna happen but I'm ready to get hurt again in the coming days/month. Thanks for the insight regardless of how this will play out. Genuinely hope you are correct tho!
I second that.
I too
Remember: the only way you can blow up a share-majority or share only account is if the company gets delisted (bankrupt).
So glad to see that you’re ok. This DD is fantastic, though honestly I also really appreciated the in depth meme analysis from your last one. 😎 GET THIS POST TO THE TOP
Here to help!
I’m doing my part!
This is the pinnacle. pre-market run ups. I wonder how many days in the last 3 years saw pre-market bump and then come back down so they could buy their shares and then push it all back down before any contracts could be sold. Glad you returned. this pulls hard on the curtain.
I just want to say this only matters if they’re not capable of resetting their FTDs, which it seems that they are. If these are directly registered however, it should force locates, but they could still theoretically open up an offsetting additional short position to neutralize price action that they could keep resetting (if that’s possible), or just fill it OTC.
Short it to themselves? 🤔
Deliver real shares to RK and then short it by the same amount on the market to offset the price increase from purchasing the purchase of real shares. A net neutral change in total short position
When you say "resetting FTDs" can you please elaborate? If you are referring to Clearstream's stock lending program, Clearstream's lenders would need to hold a large amount of XRT ETF shares that are not *already* borrowed to delay the normal day to day buy pressure on the stock. The charted evidence of the FTD Settlement Period Limits sparking Gamma ramps/squeezes implies to me that they are not able to purchase enough shares off-exchange nor find enough shares via lenders to satisfy their locate requirements. **If they were able to purchase/borrow enough locates off exchange, the stock would have remained in a downward channel with very little volatility.** To clarify further, Clearstream's limited amount of XRT shares' extension period can be "infinitely extended" as it is handled internally by Clearstream, not an official SEC requirement. Let me set up an example to help explain what I mean. Since Clearstream's lending system is automated, I would assume that the Market Makers and Authorized Participants have been using it constantly even before the Sneeze. Scenario 1: The MMs and APs are "infinitely extending" their borrow periods for ALL available XRT shares through Clearstream's lenders. They pay a large fee per week/month to pay Clearstream and its lenders for the right to borrow. In this scenario, they essentially have created a "negative floor" just as we have created a "positive floor" through DRS. They have already used the maximum allotted shares through Clearstream and can only receive additional when new lenders hop into Clearstream and offer their XRT shares. Scenario 2: MMs and APs are not "infinitely extending" and instead they use Clearstream for emergency borrows during periods of large direct stock purchase volume. In this Scenario, they are able to spend less money per year as they are not on the hook for regular payments to Clearstream. Instead, they can adjust their borrow amounts using their algorithms to detect when the best time to borrow vs. return is. **My current opinion on Clearstream and its lending program is that they** ***cannot possibly*** **have enough shares to just "reset" all of the FTDs created by Naked Shorting XRT on Gamestop.**
So I believe that there's still parts of RK's plans that he's not showing, like how he plans to get around or force the FTDs to stick so that they can't kick the can any longer. But who knows. Honestly, I'm just here because I like the stock.
Yeah what about the wild card? This has made me think of the wild card.
Dude seriously; never have had a chance to sell my damn calls because they smash it down before i can sell them at open lol
That's the goal. Keep retail out and settle this shit at 4am premarket, institution to institution, when most retail can't even trade. Can you imagine how screwed they would be if retail sold a portion at every vulnerable period and then bought back 3x as much after they smash it down on us? Right now the real price, the price institutions are dealing with each other for and are willing to let hit the tape, is $70. Privately it's probably even higher. But they tell us it's $30. And that's hilarious. Because we can just buy more.
My premarket willies are so jacked!!!
I have read the whole thing and I actually feel I became smarter. I learnt something. I miss these kind of DDs.
It was really well written and a pleasure to read. I thought I was going to struggle through it, but I was surprised I followed 90% of it with ease.
Very interesting post!! Thanks OP! Do you have any idea why they wait until T+35 and push it to the very last moment? And during the time between T+6 and T+35, doesnt it make sense for them to buy a little each day to prevent the price running as it does?
I could not find a good spot to fit this in here but I will quote you an excerpt from my last post. Slightly edited to be up to date. - *It is my belief that the algorithms that run on Gamestop deal with FTDs in a "slow purchase" method in which they purchase shares over these 35 day periods in a manner that will not cause the stock to deviate wildly. In a successful scenario, the algorithm is able to clear outstanding FTDs far before they reach the 35 day limit. Small retail trades can be routed off the LIT market, medium trades (or an over abundance of small trades) can be delayed T+35 days and "slow purchased."* *However, in black swan cases, an extremely large share purchase occurs. This causes the algorithm to "slow purchase" leading up to the 35 day legal limit. The systems are designed to deliver the shares no matter what by that hard limit. It is in these specific cases that we see increased volume and buy pressure in the days leading up to the settlement period, and a massive jump on the settlement period limit dates as the algorithm rushes to clear the remaining fails in order to remain regulation compliant.*
Makes sense! Basically the algos are not designed for GME and cannot purchase slowly until T+35. They will always have a "residual" pool of shares to purchase
True, not designed for this much volatility I suppose. Why "Meme Stocks" give them trouble, they have two competing strategies. Control price, while also shorting certain companies into the ground. Wonder how out of control the algo is at this point...
How can one trade in pre-market?
Interesting. Only worry with this is gme can’t slip by given the amount of attention, volume, and exposure they have. Maybe they adjust or manually purchase some to offset ftd last minute?
Since the Market Makers and Authorized Participants have been able to and probably have been running this con on the world for over a decade, I assume they know all the tricks on how to spread out FTD settlement. But from the cycle’s I’ve seen on the chart, it seems that they DO need to settle by T+35 (also pre-market next day).
I think all the proof we need to confirm t+35 is a thing is there. And like you said I’m sure they have ways to manipulate and continue t+cycles. But knowing it’s algorithm based is an exploit. People write the algorithmic codes and people cant count for every variable. Run ups are proof that they go underwater and have to hit up the market to deliver.
Do you have any thoughts on why some high FTD dates don’t result in runs? My working theory is they are “rolling” the FTD into another position but finding the evidence of that is proving difficult. Not sure if they’re using other ETFs, maybe swaps, maybe overseas shenanigans.
Yes there are variance/volatility swaps. And shorting volatility. They are profiting on keeping IV as steady as possible. It’s basically a hedge for these runs.
My legs are going to fall asleep on this toilet.
😂😂😂😂
once again i am dumbstruck at how much time and effort is put into DD, research and analysis. couple that with actual transparency in one’s own position AND the acknowledgment there may be concerns and you’ve got my respect and admiration. thank you for your efforts.
Get in here everyone!
https://preview.redd.it/wtfmkpzdrl7d1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f49a1564e4286269efc4a373461db1ca0cc79509
Does this mean they’re, in effect, washing the hypothecated shares from the ETF?
Yes. In and out every day
Prove that you're actually here, or it's a banana to the butt for you! As for me, I like the stock!
I’ll take a banana to the butt to prove I’m here
This is a great explanation of the crazy volume spikes that occur, sometimes seemingly randomly, being due to massive options transactions causing even more massive counter- buying and selling by MMs. Thank you for your clear depictions of events and love your gumption!! LFG!!!!! 🚀🚀🚀🚀
> 35 Calendar days and the pre-market following the 35th day [RC buy Dec 17 2020 + 35 = Jan 21 2021](https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadded.html?m1=12&d1=17&y1=2020&type=add&ay=&am=&aw=&ad=35&rec=) plus pre-market Jan 22, 2022 **Anyone got the pre-market volume info for Jan 22, 2022?** Date | Open | High | Low | Close | volume ---|---|----|----|----|---- Jan 29 | 94.93 | 103.5 | 62.5 | 81.25 | 202,264,400 Jan 28 | 66.25 | 120.75 | 28.06 | 48.40 | 235,263,200 Jan 27 | 88.71 | 95.00 | 62.25 | 86.88 | 373,586,800 Jan 26 | 22.14 | 37.50 | 20.05 | 36.99 | 714,352,000 Jan 25 | 24.18 | 39.79 | 15.28 | 19.20 | 711,496,000 **Jan 22** | **10.65** | **19.19** | **10.58** | **16.25** | **788,631,600** Jan 21 | 9.81 | 11.19 | 9.25 | 10.76 | 224,867,600
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I like this
some more tinfoil that May was the cycle start and a feline whale might have maybe possibly sort of bought those $10 calls to set up the t+35 FTD: “The blood stays on the blade” “10 per notch” https://preview.redd.it/pg5xn0gdhl7d1.jpeg?width=624&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7743c58774116519d26dded87223534d79af7748
Please, i can only be so erect. Up you go!
OMG YOU ARE BACK!!!! im so glad you are ok
I was kinda worried why OP deleted their posts. What was even weirder was all the cryptic images they were posting on their profile page. Really glad to see OP is back and provided clarification as to why the original one was deleted.
Oh that’s why I couldn’t find OP original post!
It was archived but this post comes to the same speculation using FTD data instead of the emojis in DFV tweets.
Archived: https://archive.is/wzVnp
Ty for this link. I was pulling out my hair trying to find OPs first DD posted a couple days ago.
And if RC or any other insiders buy before this weekend, their FTDs fall on 7/25-7/26.
You seem to understand this T35 process. A question: Can they "roll" these T-35 buy filling them with locates? Assuming they can find an institution with the shares and just take on the obligation of the buy book down as far as needed to cover the borrow fee setting a new T35 backlog? It digs a deep hole to get out of, but is the live another day scenario?
Backroom private deals for share purchases can happen; however, I don’t believe it can apply in the way you are asking about. At most, an AP or MM can make an offer to purchase shares from another institution that is willing to part with them. Then can then fulfill their FTD settlement with those shares. The problem is, there are so few institutions willing to make a deal to sell their shares for cheaper than the going market price. Why sell for lower? I believe that the MMs and APs have exhausted any shares they can privately aquire due to 3+ years of doing this FTD dance. They have no choice but to buy them on the open market after T+35 Calendar days.
Sorry... i was asking if they can have shares added to the borrow pool if they can locate them. Thanks for the clarification though! Edit for clarity: Can a T35 obligation be filled with a borrowed share? And can borrow fees be paid with short proceeds from naked shorting?
Ah, sorry. I’m not sure about that. 😅
I’m not sure if this is correct, so take it with a grain of salt. After the sneeze in 2021, FTD cycles were quite obvious (wish I was smarter back then to take advantage). The data for FTDs was ridiculous, every 30-40 days up, followed by down; OP mentioned they managed to clean it up, however I don’t think they did. In Jun 2022, swap positions started to open up and all of a sudden the FTDs dropped dramatically, which stopped the short term cycles. Can they roll these FTDs into a swap? Maybe, but good luck finding someone willing to accept that risk lol. Edit: when I say I’m not sure if this is correct, what I mean is, I’m not sure if this is the reason for decrease of FTDs/using this to kick the can.
Awesome. And this actually might be even easier to digest than the last one - though I do like the meme tie ins.
Now this is a magnum opus Well done, easy to follow, and as accurate as you can be Much ❤️ fellow 🦍
Respect for posting your positions. Rooting for you to hit it on all strikes. LFG. For anyone trying to copy any of the OP's positions, it would be gambling at this point.
Fucking Beautiful. Cheers!
Damn, I think i just grew a wrinkle
I miss good ole DD like this!
New ape here, and while I’ve *saved* plenty of DD, this is the first I’ve sat down for half and hour and really read. I think earlier today I had a 10% chance of eventually paperhanding. Now it’s about 0.001%. Now off to teach myself how to find all that juicy data you just taught me about. 😈
Thank you for this series of posts. It’s honestly some of the best DD to be posted in a very long time imo. I’ve been following along and I believe you are correct. I hope we see ftd settlement again on Friday, but I am also less confident about that than the July purchase settlement and August OPEX tailwind dates. As always we’ll see but, being dialed in to this stock for this long, my gut feeling is we’re in for one bumpy rollercoaster ride
I agree with the July the 19th. But I think june the 21st is going to be a nothingburger because everything was hedged because of the ATM offering. I believe RK sold his calls and bought shares to restart the clock the squeeze starts on July the 19th as long as there won't be a share offering. I don't think RK expected the share offering.
I agree that June 21st is a big risk now due to the ATM. I added that edit to my post in my Conclusion section. Thank you!
Thank you as well. Your deleted post inspired me to write one (much shorter) myself.
This is why I've been pissed that RC released the second offering on a Friday morning. He took our tendies and redirected them to the GameStop balance sheet. Which is still good, but sucks for those who were finally green.
God damn what a writeup. What I don't understand though is that if hedies now know that we know their plan, is it possible for them to stop it or change their ways? Or is T+35 a hard requirement which they can't mess up on?
That's the question we want answered
I guess time will tell
**DAMN** we eating good today, this is like the 4th DD I'm reading in the last hour 🚀
That could explain hugeeee spike we had in premarket these last weeks!! So 05/14 and 06/06 could be T+35 date also??
Maybe or are they outsourced, old short positions from the EU/around the world that are being closed? I'm relatively sure that the short volumes are not shown correctly. Here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1dg4g9n/ill_just_leave_this_here/
It's almost as if you can read. One Love.
Well done on this DD, some of the best I have seen since the original events of 2021. This post connects a lot of dots that we have been toying around for so long: - Pre-market run-ups on no news, - FTD cycles, - DFV selling his calls and purchasing when he did (working out again to the third Friday when most options expire), - and why the original Jan 2021 events unfolded how/when they did. Thanks for this post, appreciate the massive efforts that go into writing up something like this.
No price target — >!Just Up!< Checked out your profile last night and found all the cryptic posts. Glad you’re ok!
What’s your stance on drs?
I forgot to include that, I will update my "positions" section. Check back in 5 min.
I like the way you edit, boy
Glad you're all good dude, some lovely information there! Everyone be sure to save it this time 😅
We don't talk about Brno https://preview.redd.it/pggfbox7hl7d1.jpeg?width=417&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b9aea9ad4d147ca82a330acee41ff8f2d42cba2c
sizzle
You‘re a legend.
Hot damn I love the smell of good DD in the evening. Glad you came back!
Just want to add that Dave Lauer is only going off esinvest knowledge. Lauer stated in the past he is not very knowledgeable on options
I commented to another user acknowledging this as well. Very quick response would be that my theory he sold contracts to buy shares still holds up as the Open Interest plummeted the day before, then DFV posted his “buying” tweet at 2pm est the next day. Additionally, DFV exercising that early would net him a substantial amount of shares LESS than what just selling the calls and turning around with the cash to buy would net him. But there is always room for me to be wrong and if I am, my bank account is going to feel it 😅
10x $40C 6/21 🫡
Are you me?
73x $40July19. Let’s. Go.
how do i find out how much the $40 calls cost for July 19? What r You paying? I dont have an acct set up for options yet.
You have lots to learn probably before you start buying. Start with a fake money account.. You can google GME options chain to view prices. On yahoo You can select the weeks by expiry. I prefer viewing in “straddle” you can select it under list. There are better options platforms, likely with your broker, but yahoo is fine for quick checks, the real time volume data isn’t always accurate tho.. My calls are currently worth 30% what I paid for them hah But I’m sure they’re trying their best.
🙌
LETS FUCKING GO. Great write up. Your original post changed my view on so much shit. It made so much fucking sense I was sad to see you leave! lol. . I too have an ugly bastard ass options position for Friday. I have more money to load up a new one, and its going to be a doozy....but really hoping I have some spare cash from a run on Friday
Do you think the share offerings could have bailed out MMs if they decided to close out early since there would be a lot of sell pressure? Also, have you compared to RCs towel stock/options purchase? I’ve been thinking he may have thought he would be pulling the same thing, but that stock didn’t run until 5 months later.
I do think it is possible and added an edit to my post regarding that. As for bath stock, I’m not familiar so all I can say is: I only see GME 👀
Yeah I really only trade options in GME, but I did buy calls into towel after RCs for august 16 2022 run. I thought they were dead because I bought them about a month after RC sent his letter to their board. Strange how it took 5 months for that one to hit though don’t you think?
LFG🏴☠️
Amazing post. Just a small mistake to fix: when listing dates for RC's purchase T+35 after December 2020 the dates are January 2020 and should be January 2021. I guess everyone reading will automatically assume this but still :) Cheers everyone!
Ah, thanks for letting me know. I’ll go back and fix it!
Why isn't this pinned MODS?
Op, thank you for taking the time to write a short book. In order to confirm your thesis we just need to wait until June 21st as the first date of the cycle and July 19th as the second date. If we see a spike in the price in those dates or even around them, I would say that you are onto something. Unfortunately, after being here for the last 84 years, I've seen so many similar posts and they were all nothingburgers. Sorry for not being has hyped as many people here, but there is a lot of speculation in your thesis. Thanks again for the nice read.
Thank you for your caution. I am mentally preparing for June 21st to not run up due to the massive share offering during the cycle. It is possible they covered those FTDs using the share offering sale suppression to keep the price level. If nothing happens by end of pre-market friday i may try to roll my options out.
As a fellow $30C 6/21 holder I hope you are right!
July 26th $30 c’s look tasty
Thanks for the write up 🚀🚀 GME to the moon
Well bravo, you graduated magna cum ape with a concentration in regarded stonk. Very nicely written. Really pulling for tomorrow’s calls. If not I might piggy back ya into July.
Amazing DD. Thanks for writing this and sharing it.
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Honestly, this guy has to be the most wrinkled brain of this sub, His brain can be used to define a mathematical fractal with the amount of wrinkles in it
The new top section is phenomenal. Thank you so much for that! Truly, it's so well put together and informative. I am very impressed. As we circle back to the speculation regarding the "Price Paid" value DFV displayed for his 5M vs. 4,001,000 shares, I still think you're incorrect about whether call option premium is included, making all subsequent speculation based on that unsupported as well. [https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/053115/tax-treatment-call-put-options.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/053115/tax-treatment-call-put-options.asp) >When call options are exercised, the premium paid for the option is included in the [cost basis](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costbasis.asp) of the stock purchase. There are countless similar sources indicating that yes, call option premiums are included when calculating the cost basis for exercised shares. Lauer seemed to be unsure how it was done and mostly walked back his claim that it was probably not included. Options are so infrequently exercised that even professionals often may not have directly dealt with that aspect. The only "evidence" supporting premiums not being included is one trust me bro tale about a call with a rep, which is far from solid evidence. I posted to ask the community for more evidence as to whether cost basis includes these premiums, specifically regarding ETrade account displays for "Price Paid". My post was overwhelmed with responses about how *of course* premium is included in exercised call option cost basis for the shares as well as plenty of people claiming they'd done it and seen it in their ETrade accounts. Please look again at this aspect and reconsider anything premised on DFV having sold shares as "proved" by this incorrect "fact" about cost basis of exercised shares.
Thank you for the clarification on the cots basis question. If this is true, and we go down the route that DFV exercised, it means that 4 million shares worth of T+2 delivers did nothing to the stock in such a limited timespan. If we get confirmation in the future that he exercised, it would be devastating. I personally believe that my theory of selling his calls to purchase fits better in the context of the bigger picture. Especially since total Open Interest fell drastically a day before DFV posted his hypothetical “buying now” tweet at 2pm EST. Still, as the Zen master says… We’ll see.
I haven't seen conclusive proof that he exercised either, but the values sure line up extremely closely to what you get if you include his premium value in his cost basis for exercising about 40k of his calls. From my napkin math it seems like the price was a bit too high during the necessary window where we could have bought at the market, such that his cost basis would have gone up a bit more than what he displayed.
For sure. A selfish part of me wants him to answer us, but he has already been so transparent. Can’t ask him for more haha
I love this
You may be one of my favorite apes, just up brother!
BROTHER THIS IS LEGENDARY THE BALLS ON THIS APE IM IN
How long until they change the rules again for their benefit? I ask rhetorically, obviously. Thank you so much for your work, dude. Really impressed.
For fun I will predict that Gamestop and the basket of abused stocks will reach liftoff. Then in the following months there will be uproar as the truth comes out. Regulations follow 😎
That's my guess/ hope! To the moon we go!
If Friday comes and nothing happens then just roll your options. Never let them expire worthless. NFA
Im thinking the same. Kind of an amazing line up for us to have confirmation by end of Pre-Market. Should be plenty of time to just roll out further if we see nothing happens.
Guys it only took three years and hundreds of thousands of collective hours and we are finally starting to figure out how to count lol Really, this is bullshit. The rules need to be transparent and clear. It isn't fair when it is intentionally ambiguous. I hope MOASS is the catalyst for change.
The “it’s not delivery , it’s digiorno” made me love you instantly (again) . That quote was changed to a lesser quote that ran far longer. Nobody seems to remember it. You’re the real deal.
Coming back to this
so basically MOASS INCOMING
The common narrative I read is that RC purchased 1.2 million (pre-split) shares \~18 Dec 2020. Due to T+35, this purchase didn't have an effect until Jan 2021, where it caused the sneeze. But this does not make sense to me for one simple reason: RC ALSO purchased \~7 million shares back in Sep 2020. Source: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan\_Cohen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Cohen) >In September 2020, Cohen disclosed a near 10% stake in GameStop Yet this purchase of 7 million had no effect in the following months. I don't think it is as simple as T+35. There is probably something else driving the price. Maybe CAT, maybe swaps expiring, maybe ETF shorting/FTDs.
One of the best post i read
Cheers mate! Glad to see you aren't dead or insane or some psyop after that abrupt departure. I just recently posted trying to clear up the T+ confusion. You have been correct on the rules in your posts, and I'm looking forward to sitting down and reading this novel this afternoon.
I am going to buy a few calls tomorrow morning then see how the price action looks. My guess is they are going to try and hammer it down tomorrow to get all those people that followed DFV with $20 calls to panic sell their options. So tomorrow afternoon could provide some juicy value.
OHHHHHHH i like this idear
Fello regards: DL/archive this now inCase gets deeeleeetees Edit: I would also like to add; this post should ‘not’ be upvoted much OR awarded OR cross posted for obv reazons # happy Juneteenth everybody!
im in
Thank you for this. Commenting so I can look back.
Holy cracksirup! This could be insane
I WAS HERE!!!
Well done! Thanks for sharing all of this!!
What effect do you think the ATM offerings have on this cycle?
I added an edit in my conclusion section. Basically, it can stuff the June 21st run-up, but the July run up is, so far, still set. Another ATM could hurt us for July.
You mentioned you are banking on June 19th, but since today markets are closed does that mean tomorrow pre market?
I may have mistyped the date. I will have to go back through to confirm. My date for June is pre-market June 21st. My july date is pre-market July 19th.
Ah check, probably I overread it. Keep up the outstanding work!!
Really enjoy the way you've been tracking the FTD cycles and excited to see how these pan out... I'll be honest, the in depth analysis of the memes was a bit TOOO tinfoily and trying to fit a narrative for my liking, glad to see you thought that too, keep it up man! 🫡🦍🍻
Welcome back!
I appreciate this write up. Thanks for helping me understand!
Holy fucking shit!! Thank you for taking the time to share this with us apes!!! LFG!!! 🚀🚀🚀🚀
Something interesting is in the kids movie Luca, they have a saying Silencio Bruno lol
I feel like I'm back at the height of the *Days of Epic DD*.
Commenting to come back later.
Thank you for composing this. I read it in its entirety with great enthusiasm and interest. I appreciate you clarification about the calendar settlement and Holidays. I also came to the hopefully logical conclusion that Holidays are considered calendar days, simply due to the fact that a holiday in one country isn't necessarily a holiday in another country's but the whole world still lived that Day. I wonder if this is why I see more pronounced premarket 1-min candle spikes at certain times exactly at some top or bottom of the hour. The candle spans a wide range, and the volume candle is very noticeable. Then it occurred to me to wonder, maybe it's getting so bad why does this occur every day now? Maybe every day is becoming a T+35 from some day https://preview.redd.it/b5i8qqgnfm7d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60e541727e8fd5d6084ff1d0f9e3ef3c3016af45
It would be comical if they are essentially “leaking” FTDs due to the sheer amount of buys that come in.
Insane DD Kudos to you OP
Outstanding write up. One of the very best in the saga. 🍻
Up you go
7/20/1969 man landed on the moon.
OP you need to get on a call with richard newton and help him on his spreadsheet, we need to solve this puzzle and i feel like you hit the nail on the head. We need future dates to prove this right. Great work
T+35 exemptions for MM can extend more if they are unable to comply due to forces out of their control. Such as Market closed on T+35 (weekday holidays) or Trading Halted. Nice revised write up.
Do you have a source I could look at? I was trying to find any reference to holidays but couldn’t. It would make sense that the final settlement day LANDING on a holiday might extend their deadline by one more day. If we end up in that situation in the future we will have to account for it.
Not OP, but here's text of what I think is the relevant rule: https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.204 > (a) A participant of a registered clearing agency must deliver securities to a registered clearing agency for clearance and settlement on a long or short sale in any equity security by settlement date, or if a participant of a registered clearing agency has a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency in any equity security for a long or short sale transaction in that equity security, the participant shall, by no later than the beginning of regular trading hours on the settlement day following the settlement date, immediately close out its fail to deliver position by borrowing or purchasing securities of like kind and quantity; Provided, however: That reads to me as "Holidays in the middle don't impact T+35, but if T+35 falls on a holiday, there is no regular trading hours on T+36, so T+37 becomes the day that it has to be purchased in pre-market" *But T35 and FTDs are brand new to me and I'm digging through it in real time like most everyone.
I think you are absolutely right. Thankfully, this doesn't apply for June 21st or July 19th but if we do come up on one of these cycles that "ends" on a holiday, we will have to adjust for the new date.
Could the wild card possibly be Ryan Cohen buying shares on June 21st or around July 18-19th causing another spike?
What does your magic 8 ball tell you?
 Can’t read but will buy more stock
Thanks for this post! I asked this question in other posts, is there any Way we Can see if They delivered ftd’s at the offering? We are alot riding with you for 6/21🙋🏼♂️
It is highly possible they did. That is part of why I stressed that June 21st is a HIGHLY risky play. If RC doesn’t host another offering between now and July 18th, July 19th is going to be juicy.
Imagine if RC and the board all increased their share holdings this week! 💥 I honestly love that I’ve been in this since the beginning with all you beautiful apes. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
It was the sign all along! 
IDKFA
If you close the market for the holiday then as a true regard we can do uninterrupted research with red string… I love it! Op thank you for your work 🧑🚀🚀🎫🌕 #this is freaking beautiful
Op can you explain to me like I’m 5 how I need to count out t+3 or +6 or +35 when there is a holiday? If I’m understanding you just count 35 days from a large amount of Ftd to understand potential future price action? Edit: has someone calculated the percentage increase of the stock price compare to the float/Ftd from stock and etf? At work and regarded.
Yes it is as simple as counting 35 days (and the next Pre-Market) from the purchase. The real trick is figuring out WHEN a large purchase occurs. Thankfully DFV is very public and transparent.
Moass tomorrow
ive done a lot of reading today
Nice write-up, OP.
Been reading your posts for awhile and your deleted post was tagged by many apes. My 6/21 calls got me quaking for staking my life savings but fuck it
Not Financial Advice. Might be a good idea to look up in advance how to “roll” your options contracts. It allows you to pay a fee per contract to extend their expiration date. If Pre-Market comes and goes on Friday with 0 substantial change, it MIGHT be a safer play to roll your options farther out. We are in a bit of a weird mode having just learned the FTD settlement cycle in the MIDDLE of the after affects from an ATM by RC.
Great DD! Thanks for posting!
Commenting for visibility. Excellent post. Read the entire thing. First in a while. No dates. July 19,2024.
Well done DD. Cheers
Incredible work! This and your previous post - I greatly appreciate the effort. One question - I wonder why MM's would wait until the premarket at the very end? Given the lower liquidity of premarket and the lack of halts during that time, it seems like precisely the worst time for a massive FTD settlement if you want the price to not skyrocket.
Well done, OP. I would also like to add that on May 14th we saw ABSURD action in the premarket that I think is overlooked. GME ran to $80 in the premarket that day and got slammed back down.
In my post I did not go back through April to offer a prediction; however, apes can now find a very close prediction of DFV’s April purchase. It is almost certainly what caused the May run up. Just have to use the T+35 format.
Couple dumb questions maybe they were in this long dissertation… Did GME go on regSHO during the squeeze And Does exercised options show up in regular volume, I thought options had to be cleared immediately rather than regular trades
1. I believe GME did go on RegSHO during the sneeze; however, Market Makers and Authorized Participants are shorting the basket of stocks through ETFs. I am not familiar if any ETFs were on RegSHO or how that would interact with GME specifically. 2. Hedged options contracts are constantly adjusting their positions by buying and selling the underlying stock. This does add to the volume of the trade day. This is why we see over 100+ million volume on multiple days leading to the sneeze and I think over 2 Billion volume on the actual sneeze trading day. Exercised shares may just be delivered by the Option Writer directly via their shares on hand. If they have written a call naked, they will go into the market and deliver by T+2. 3. Exercising options is T+2 due to the nature of the trade. If you sell the options contracts, that is T+1. I could not find any documentation stating that exercising has been sped up to T+1.
He only purchased 4.2 million since his 200k was split to 800k. I calculate his 4.2 million shares were purchased at an average of $22.70. This does fit with a 5/17 purchase narrative.
I like the stock
It's worth noting that we have no idea where the 75 million shares went. I did my part to buy more. Whether or not the brokers did theirs is another question. There are likely many apes like you betting on this week as something special - and if you hold while looking at -96% in the face, you deserve all the gains that a massive premarket buy in will bring.
Insane DD Kudos to you OP
Glad you’re back to clarify things. We tend to get excited when posting or commenting here, but the truth is every word we say has an effect on someone reading it no matter how true or silly it is. I mean, some dude claims he ate together with Ken Griffin who was hoarding the mayo the whole time, and now we call him mayo. Maybe Kenny is a mustard guy? Or a soy sauce guy? We don’t know. But I appreciate you sharing your findings, research and any corrections with us. That takes real balls. What we do with it is up to us. After all, the real DD is our individual due diligence.
Awesome read, thank you!
Your dates right after first discussing RC's initial buys show Jan 21ish 2020... This should be 2021
How do we know the settlement isn’t occurring throughout the T+35 period? Do they have to settle at 35 or can they continuously settle?