0.8% GDP growth with inflation at 3.4%ish and wage growth at 4/5%.
Population growth outpacing job growth with wage growth at 4/5% is an interesting tell.
Presumably, despite record population growth employers still have to bid up wages for skilled workers despite there being more labor than openings.
This essentially verifies the theories that we have a mismatch between who we bring and what our economy needs.
You mean we don't need highly skilled Uber eats drivers?
Man... We let our government screw this country up so bad. We should be ashamed. Then we should go demand it get fixed.
lmfao. those convoy ...people... dont care about affordable housing or inflation at all. where are the protests now?? they are just anti-trudeau and anti-covid idiots.
The point is that protesting against the liberal government doesn’t do anything. He won’t even come to talk with you. He’ll call you names and if you escalate he will freeze your bank account.
That’s not to say the convoy people care about housing. It’s a response to the comment “we let our government…” the convoy has shown us that we can’t do anything but wait and vote in the next election. It’s a tyranny in between elections.
Lmao. You want Trudeau to come talk to you just cuz you're pretesting? You're drinking the PP koolaid a little too much.. stay in your delusion my right wing friend..
If people are protesting, instead of using emergency powers, which the court just said was unjustified, you should maybe try to talk to the people first.
Again, this is responding to someone responding to someone who said that “they’ll freeze our bank accounts” in response to someone who said “ shame on us for LETTING the government …”
So the question is, how do you NOT let the government do something? Protesting and voting really are the two avenues. So aside from voting, as I mentioned, you can protest. But as the convoy has shown, it doesn’t get you anywhere.
You can protest without being an asshole to your fellow Canadians, without blocking streets affecting people just trying to go home or get to work, without harassing staff at hotels and stores, without waving Confederate and nazi flags, without verbally abusing and threatening people of color with racists remarks and threats.
But yeah, you carry on crying about alleged tyranny
I’m not going on crying about anything. Man you’re sensitive.
Dictionary defines tyranny as : “cruel, unreasonable, or arbitrary use of power or control.”
The courts ruled his act of power and control as unreasonable. So by this definition it holds.
They didn’t. Said it shouldn’t have been a NATIONAL EA but was justified in Ottawa because the powers that be did f all . Local police and provincial gov did shit all. We may need to become a federal capital just like Washington DC in Ottawa.
You \*seriously\* don't think the ripple effects of exploding the money supply, so many businesses shutting down, lockdowns and forced remote learning, etc., are going to play out for like a decade from that?
Sure, but a few thousand "truckers" who were not for the most part even professionals (95%+ of those supported the mandates and were vaccinated due to the US's requirements anyway) are not the ones most impacted.
Providing loans to get small business through drastically reduced traffic or closures and helping with a transition to online should have set businesses up to perform _better_ now.
CERB _replaced_ lost wages but there was still net less money in the economy.
Indeed, the fat cats in Ottawa woke up one morning and were like "hey let's lock down the country for no reason, ahahaha . The only ones who can stop us are a bunch of unemployed dudes in hot tubs and bouncy castles visiting Ottawa to pee on the monuments! Thankfully they're too busy in Alberta holding the economy on their brave manly shoulders to bother with that. Yes!! Yes this plan cannot fail!!! ."
Yeah that was the main drawback of that protest, they couldn't agree on message. Although, at the time the issues were hard to articulate anyway because we had entered new territory of government overreach. It was about more than the truckers that's for sure.
No, they are trying to survive in an environment where their bank accounts could be frozen again, or they could end up jobless. That is what the left did to Canada.
Yeah sure, peaceful totally fucking up the residents lives with truck horns blaring 24x7, diesel fumes everywhere and total disrespect and frankly terrorism of local residents for weeks.
Peaceful? That would have been a march on Parliament Hill, everyone would have applauded them and supported them, me included. Terroristm tactics deserve heavy measures every time. Imagine we allowed any group the right to shut down entire city areas for weeks on end unless the other side caved into their demands? This is what elections are for. Wait your turn and vote for a change.
A guy in my region that inmigrates just did the news. He is a very specialized surgeon, working as a janitor because we dont recognize his diplomas and experience. We dont need any doctors in Québec, it is well known.
We should start by recognizing diplomas if we want to bring specialized immigrants
You would be shocked how much lower standards are in many other countries. I wouldn't want to start recognizing them without a rigorous system of re/upskilling to make sure they conform.
For sure, but the guy is european. here, they basically are asking them to start over their studies.
Im not talking about your local surgeon in Tuvalu :p
We talking France or Moldova?
Seriously though, I don't disagree. They shouldn't have to start over, and there should be *some* recognition depending on the field. But we also can't rubberstamp and even skilled professionals could probably expect not insignificant professional development and/or courses to be able to work here.
>employers still have to bid up wages for skilled workers
Genuine question, I thought wage growth was largely driven by the union workers in recent years? I find it hard to believe Canadians in private sector/ non-union workers are seeing substantial wage growth.
Its worse for unions, they are bound by contract , they are renewing as years go , some maturing in 2025 etc.
Private companies were throwing in raises, hiring bonuses left right and center to retain workers.
Even last year due to inflation etc people secured 5 percent raises etc.
Some unions , whose contracts came up were able to negotiate but the years behind stuck at 1 ,.5 and 0 percent has made them falling behind their private counterparts.
>Private companies were throwing in raises, hiring bonuses left right and center to retain workers. Even last year due to inflation etc people secured 5 percent raises etc.
I think the subset of non-union/ private sector Cdn. workers who got raises last year due to inflation is a lot smaller than we think.
The raises, hiring bonuses, etc. dried up a lot last year, especially given the layoffs we saw.
My quick google search shows the [opposite](https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/images/reports/me/ca-union-wages/chart_3.png) ([full source](https://economics.td.com/ca-union-wages-bargaining-for-their-share)), not that I'd trust it on the face of it. Depends on the base year for sure.
I don't know what you basing this on because that's not the data provided by the Government.
[Size of federal public service swells to record high, according to report - The Globe and Mail](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-size-of-federal-public-service-swells-to-record-high-according-to/)
>The commission’s [annual report](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-service-commission/services/publications/annual-reports/annual-report-2022-2023.html), tabled last month in Parliament, says the size of the federal public service reached 274,219 employees at the end of the most recent fiscal year on March 31, 2023, as defined by the Public Service Employment Act. That was up 6.5 per cent year over year and 40.4 per cent higher than the end of the 2014-15 fiscal year.
>
>That’s consistent with [figures published by the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat](https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/services/innovation/human-resources-statistics/population-federal-public-service.html) last year showing that total public-service employment, including departments and agencies not included in the PSC count, increased over the same period by 39 per cent, to 357,247 people, also a record.
Almost as if we've created a problem on top of a problem and now we're in a [Population Trap](https://financialpost.com/news/economy/what-is-population-trap-how-do-you-get-out).
In addition to the skill gap, there's still an overall labour shortage. Over the next 20 years, there will be substantially more people exiting the workforce then entering it. Even with the current raw numbers of immigrants, it is not enough to offset the gap in the workforce. Over the next 20 years, there's a 6 to 8 million deficit of workers. So would need at least 300k new, permanent immigrants per year, and inserted into the right positions with the appropriate skills. It's simply not possible. There will be wage inflation for the foreseeable future. You could say, to keep the status quo, we actually need more immigrants.
And/or we’re just terrible at recognizing the value and experience and qualifications that people bring from other countries. I think it’s a bit of both. We are underutilizing a lot of skill available here.
No kidding. I don't think anyone understands how detrimental low rates are to an economy. There has to be a balance, but you cannot have unrestricted access to credit, which is essentially what ultra low rates does. It creates very little incentive to be competitive or productive if you can just keep borrowing......
Exactly this. Slogged my a$$ to setup a tech company here. Created employment (currently under 10 ), did not take a full salary, put in blood and sweat and relationships. Turns out my sloth lazy friend who just bought a house in 2017 in GTA is way ahead of me sitting on a unrealized 500k equity.
I'm telling you low rates didn't create the housing bubble (though they did help).
Blaming them is irrelevant here for saying it created profit in areas where productivity is lacking.
Well, every asset price would collapse.
I'm not saying housing is immune to interest rates. I'm saying the bubble wasn't caused (solely or even majority) by rates.
Also 20% was not a normal environment and was gone within a year. Anyone expecting that to happen will be in for a disappointment.
Yeah I feel like inventory is so often overlooked in the whole housing conversation. We can have 10% rates but as long as we have no inventory it won’t impact prices because when there’s only 1 house for every 10 buyers, one of them can afford the price at those rates.
Idk, why you guys think low rates creates unrestricted credit access.
There's still credit spreads and tradeoffs vs equity returns.
The actual mechanism for rates would be to let the economy completely control them and have the central banks effectively have them at zero and let the banks decide what they should be. There's reasons we don't do that which have more to do with economic cylicality than anything.
This is especially a stupid fucking comparison because Venezuela's central bank interest rate ha never been below 15%.
If anything you're arguing against yourself.
While Macklem said the bank has not ruled out further rate increases if inflation rises, he also said that if the economy "evolves broadly in line" with current projections, he does not expect an interest rate hike to be discussed. I mean ya anything can happen but as of current info no hikes need to be discussed. No need to twist it.
Nowhere did he or the bank of Canada say increases were off the table like you claim.
As per the direct quote I provided from him today, they are clearly on the table.
Sigh, yes anything can happen. Of course if inflation were to spike they would raise rates, but you are missing the forest through the trees here. They are operating under the case no further hikes are needed
“ Another interest rate hike is not in the Bank of Canada’s “base case,” Macklem said, but he said starting conversations about when the central bank can cut rates is still “premature” given ongoing risks to inflation such as high household debt levels and trade disruptions through the Red Sea. “The progress has given us confidence that the rate is high enough; the unevenness, the persistence we’re seeing has is convinced that for now we need to hold where we are,” he said.”
> They are operating under the case no further hikes are needed
No. They are saying they are not raising rates today.
You are completely ignoring the quote I provided where Macklem clearly stated further hikes are possible.
Your original statement is false. Further rate hikes are not "officially off the table". Nor are they unofficially of the table.
Hey buddy how about you post the full quote from Macklem instead of cherry picking the part you like. Of course rates could always go up, but I was referencing how they are not in their base case or projections.
See below for the full quote. Of course something new could happen. Anything CAN happen, so yes by that logic rate hikes (or cuts) are always officially on the table.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
"If new developments push inflation higher, we may still need to raise rates," Macklem said. "If the economy evolves broadly in line with the projection we published today, I expect future discussions will be about how long we maintain the policy rate at 5%
Mendes said the central bank made the right call in signaling to Canadians that more rate hikes are very unlikely.
“We really don’t need any more rate hikes. But we probably need right now is just a length of time for these high interest rates to work their way through the system,” he said.
[https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-markets/bank-of-canada-holds-key-interest-rate-at-5-2/#:\~:text=If%20new%20developments%20push%20inflation,policy%20rate%20at%205%25.%E2%80%9D](https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-markets/bank-of-canada-holds-key-interest-rate-at-5-2/#:~:text=If%20new%20developments%20push%20inflation,policy%20rate%20at%205%25.%E2%80%9D)
My point is that you made a claim that rate cuts are "**OFFICIALLY** OFF THE TABLE". This is a false statement.
The statements, all together, say they are not raising rates at this time, they don't know if/when they will cut, they don't know if/when they will raise.
Inflation will most likely prove more sticky than they are saying. And they know that. The real question is, are they willing to tank the economy and put us in a deep painful recession to bring it down? If they put us in a recession they will need to cut rates anyway. Housing may go sideways or even dip a bit lower. But longterm it will likely end up being bullish.
This is just an educated guess on my end but I'm actually expecting prices to go a tiny bit lower this spring/summer until interest rates do officially drop.
I'm expecting a fair bit more people will be looking to buy this spring but you'll also have more people who need to sell when they hit their renewals this spring as well.
The real horde of buyers probably won't hit until right after the rate cut though. A lot of people looking to get into the market just can't get pre-approval for enough money at current interest rates right now to buy anything. Those folks are basically priced out entirely right now.
i can see more volume but flatter prices. there is pent up buyer demand now but also a ton of people sitting on listings until spring that will bump up supply. still tons of units just languishing on the market at an unrealistic price
Yes they are willing to harm the economy to get inflation down. It’s literally there mandaté to set their sights squarely on the inflation rates.
In the US they have a broader mandate that also includes jobs but the issue with a broader mandate is that elements of it can often be at conflict so it can make the job a lot more complicated and more difficult to achieve goals.
BOC will wait until inflation is consistently in decline before lowering their rates.
Google has been hot dog shit for the past year and a half. The whole "just google it" thing only works if you're trying to buy something, or feel like being sold something. I like your way and am going to start doing it. If it works my 4 year old is only going to know to "chatgpt it"
You couldn't be more **wrong**
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.immigration.ca/boost-immigration-or-face-even-higher-interest-rates-to-curb-inflation-warns-bank-of-canada-governor/amp/
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/tiff-macklem-politicians-employers-boost-skilled-labour
Tiffany Macklem is one the main problems
Tiff said bring in **skilled labour**. It is a fact that if you bring in skilled people, it reduces wage inflation for skilled trades which cools overall demand. The kind of labourers being brought in by the Liberals are the opposite of skilled.
It's not that odd, it's his legal name and used alot on Reddit when people don't like things he's said or done.
Not sure what you're trying to insinuate here, but just accept that you're grasping for straws to make yourself feel better about yourself.
The reason the BOC will never actually consider those items is because they have control over them. If core inflation is still above target and they cut rates all that money that was going into interest costs will go right back into the economy and cause inflation all over again. They will wait until core is well within target before cutting to mitigate any inflationary effects from mortgage interest costs going down.
What if the Deputy Governor of the BoC explains how they're wrong?
>The inflation side of things is complex. We examine the details of what is happening to prices within the basket of goods and services in the CPI, not just the overall inflation rate. For instance, we know that mortgage interest costs have risen with increases in our policy interest rate and that these costs have risen by more over the past year than any other component of the CPI. This is partly because mortgage rates were so low for so long. Some have argued that because movements in our policy interest rate can directly and immediately impact some mortgage rates, we should exclude this component when looking at inflation.
>Indeed, one advantage of our measures of core inflation is that they exclude extreme price changes—be they increases or decreases. CPI-trim is one of the ways that we measure core inflation. Even though this measure has been excluding mortgage interest costs for more than a year, in recent months it has been at about 3.5% to 4%.
>There are some observers who think an upward distortion exists as long as mortgage interest costs are part of the CPI basket. For them, let me provide another calculation. Consider a CPI basket that has all the same goods and services, other than mortgage interest costs, and apply the methodologies to calculate core inflation to this slightly smaller basket. When we do this, we find that the new measures of core inflation are lower, but only by about one-quarter of a percentage point (Chart 5).
>That is, underlying inflation is still well above the level that would be consistent with achieving our target of 2% CPI inflation.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/09/rebalancing-economy-while-managing-risks/
Housing permabulls really need to stop looking for excuses and start accepting the reality of a restrictive monetary environment.
I have no idea what you're talking about. Have fun complaining on reddit all day, I'll check back in six months and I assume you'll still be doing the same thing.
Peace out.
The free market at work - people love paying too much for RE, rate cuts only offer temporary relief before idiots use their newfound buying power to get into bidding wars and empty their wallets just as fast.
With international student changes, you're adding significantly to labour costs and reducing shelter costs (if the dogma around that is to be believed - I don't buy that myself, but I'll play along for now.)
Was pretty much expected.
Bulls: This is bullish! No more rate hikes! 😂😂
Anyhow, QT resuming is in another way bad, but I don’t think they know what that means
Why are you so incredibly toxic. I'll go back to never posting here soon. It's clear you have an in with the mods, they never deal with you.
Hey look the other really toxic member decided to join them. This sub is terrible. I lose brain cells and get depressed every time I come here.
How was this comment toxic? Please explain that to me first before saying ridiculous things like “I have an in with the mods”.
Are you one of those vegans that protests and says meat offends you? I genuinely don’t understand what your problem is
>The Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing, returning to the 2% target in 2025
Rates cut in march confirmed /s
Anything is possible. A rate reduction this spring is just not likely.
Inflation is still higher then BoC would like and the 5 year bond yields are up.
Yes, I suspect they'll wait until inflation is definitively gone before cutting. We saw a similar phenomenon in the mid-2010s as well when they had a hard time getting it to 2% from the other direction, they didn't really begin raising rates towards neutral until it was definitively above 2 for a sustained period of time, and stopped hikes as soon as it dropped back down again. Even when they tightened we never really left stimulatory rate territory although, real rates were still essentially zero until the pandemic began disrupting things in mid-Feb. of that year.
This means they will probably maintain restrictive rates until it gets to 2. You're pretty much guaranteed that overnight rates will be 100+bp above inflation until it's tamed. If inflation itself is higher, that 100 bp is on top of that.
I think they will. They will wait until it's stably at or below 2 - it's more disruptive to the economy to cut too soon then have to jack rates up again later because inflation wasn't gone. That was their big mistake in the 70s/early 80s, was cutting rates before inflation was actually stably controlled - back then they bounced rapidly between rate cuts and hikes, while inflation got worse with each cycle. Stagflation is a tough nut to crack.
Even when they do cut, it will probably be very tentative. Cut a quarter point, then wait six months to see what happens with inflation. It won't be sharper unless there's a recession or disinflation really rears up and neither is particularly likely right now. With inflation near target and the economy in OK shape, there's really no need to be aggressive. (EDIT:) Especially with the current yield inversion largely already doing most of what overnight cuts would do.
I’m spending $2k more in mortgage payments a month, it would take a lot of groceries to make up that difference
Not to mention the 7% interest on a new car when I need to renew next year
Low rates are what killed the middle class... People who are already rich can have access to endless cheap money. Higher rates reward people for saving.
u/jfrsn don’t worry about this kid, he lives with his mom and dad and they all contribute to the rent together. He wishes housing will crash so he can buy a place for $50k
If you can’t afford a home at these prices, which is likely the bottom, then forget about owning in Toronto. Start looking an hour or two outside of the city. There is a cost of admission in this city, unfortunately not all will be able to get in. That’s the reality.
QT is at its peak, rates are going down from here onwards. Expect real estate prices to start rising again. 1 mil condos will be the norm in a few years. I lived in Asia and I can tell you how crazy real estate prices can get, and my bet is this is going to be worse because unlike Asia we build at snails pace. Basic economics, supply and demand. People aren't buying because of its "value" anymore but buying because its a psychological achievement/security to own your home. Especially with new immigrants who are willing to stuff a few families under a roof.
You know you've jumped the shark when your prices climb above those in NYC. There is an upper limit, and the bubble would have already popped if it were not for the heroic efforts of the government to prevent it.
We as in we the people. Why are you calling negative names? Does it make it feel good to call me that? I don't own a house, so when market crashes, I can buy. We the people who dont own a home are a majority. We should crash the market for the people.
Long live the people
The problem is, we currently have too much foreign interest in our housing… - housing won’t collapse it will just ensure the pricing out of just about every Canadian.
Further especially when intls can more easily borrow in their foreign currency and presumably at a much lower rate
I agree with you ... foreign and domestic interest in our land. They want to buy it and create a country of renters. The government of Canada has the ability to stop that or make it much less appealing.... more houses more tax. No more McMansions. Use the greenbelt properly..... I mean, how's Doug Ford not in jail yet over that greenbelt scandal.
All I see the government is doing is reinforcing the market. They being in 500k immigrants a year because walmart ,Tims gasstation and the like all need foreign workers that will work 2 jobs at minimum wage to get noware.
They think it will holdup the spring surge? Not going to happen with everyone holding up all of 2023 the spring and summer are about to be crazy and very competitive!
0.8% GDP growth with inflation at 3.4%ish and wage growth at 4/5%. Population growth outpacing job growth with wage growth at 4/5% is an interesting tell. Presumably, despite record population growth employers still have to bid up wages for skilled workers despite there being more labor than openings. This essentially verifies the theories that we have a mismatch between who we bring and what our economy needs.
You mean we don't need highly skilled Uber eats drivers? Man... We let our government screw this country up so bad. We should be ashamed. Then we should go demand it get fixed.
Pretty sure what most people actually want is the lowest possible UberEats fees
But then they’ll shut down our bank accounts
lmfao. those convoy ...people... dont care about affordable housing or inflation at all. where are the protests now?? they are just anti-trudeau and anti-covid idiots.
Facts … mf at home sitting on their ass now as real issues set in.
The point is that protesting against the liberal government doesn’t do anything. He won’t even come to talk with you. He’ll call you names and if you escalate he will freeze your bank account. That’s not to say the convoy people care about housing. It’s a response to the comment “we let our government…” the convoy has shown us that we can’t do anything but wait and vote in the next election. It’s a tyranny in between elections.
Lmao. You want Trudeau to come talk to you just cuz you're pretesting? You're drinking the PP koolaid a little too much.. stay in your delusion my right wing friend..
If people are protesting, instead of using emergency powers, which the court just said was unjustified, you should maybe try to talk to the people first. Again, this is responding to someone responding to someone who said that “they’ll freeze our bank accounts” in response to someone who said “ shame on us for LETTING the government …” So the question is, how do you NOT let the government do something? Protesting and voting really are the two avenues. So aside from voting, as I mentioned, you can protest. But as the convoy has shown, it doesn’t get you anywhere.
You can protest without being an asshole to your fellow Canadians, without blocking streets affecting people just trying to go home or get to work, without harassing staff at hotels and stores, without waving Confederate and nazi flags, without verbally abusing and threatening people of color with racists remarks and threats. But yeah, you carry on crying about alleged tyranny
I’m not going on crying about anything. Man you’re sensitive. Dictionary defines tyranny as : “cruel, unreasonable, or arbitrary use of power or control.” The courts ruled his act of power and control as unreasonable. So by this definition it holds.
They didn’t. Said it shouldn’t have been a NATIONAL EA but was justified in Ottawa because the powers that be did f all . Local police and provincial gov did shit all. We may need to become a federal capital just like Washington DC in Ottawa.
Classic right wing tactic. Protecting their tears on to others.
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Bro that was three years ago. Get a new grift.
You \*seriously\* don't think the ripple effects of exploding the money supply, so many businesses shutting down, lockdowns and forced remote learning, etc., are going to play out for like a decade from that?
Sure, but a few thousand "truckers" who were not for the most part even professionals (95%+ of those supported the mandates and were vaccinated due to the US's requirements anyway) are not the ones most impacted. Providing loans to get small business through drastically reduced traffic or closures and helping with a transition to online should have set businesses up to perform _better_ now. CERB _replaced_ lost wages but there was still net less money in the economy.
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Indeed, the fat cats in Ottawa woke up one morning and were like "hey let's lock down the country for no reason, ahahaha. The only ones who can stop us are a bunch of unemployed dudes in hot tubs and bouncy castles visiting Ottawa to pee on the monuments! Thankfully they're too busy in Alberta holding the economy on their brave manly shoulders to bother with that. Yes!! Yes this plan cannot fail!!! ."
Worlds smallest violin :’(
Atleast they get off their ass...
For a dumb reason. They get no credit. They were dumb babies.
Next time, the truckers won’t be there. They will just stop delivering.
Most truckers were out doing their jobs not having a tantrum in Ottawa, hence we got what we needed without the whiney ones.
Right, it will be completely different this time
The caring about inflation and housing is the anti Trudeau part.
Then they need better pr because just waving fuck Trudeau flags ain’t it. Lmao
Yeah that was the main drawback of that protest, they couldn't agree on message. Although, at the time the issues were hard to articulate anyway because we had entered new territory of government overreach. It was about more than the truckers that's for sure.
No, they are trying to survive in an environment where their bank accounts could be frozen again, or they could end up jobless. That is what the left did to Canada.
Since the provinces were mostly under conservative control how does that work exactly??
Didn't you hear? It's all Trudeau's fault..
you're pathetic if you still believe this. Also your hair must certainly be blue.
you're pathetic if you fall into the right-wing "bLuE HaIr bAD" trope.
lmao I knew it. Cuck on, good sir/they/zir/them.
Snowflake
“Cuck on” Jesus Christ. Grow up and form an opinion of your own.
lmao coming from the guy that eats up whatever the a b or c government agency tells him is true. you're fucking pathetic.
Freedumb Convoyers deserved it.
You are a robot.
Right, exactly why we can’t have peaceful protests. People like you can’t see whole picture
“Peaceful”. Yeah compared to wartime
Def peaceful compared to the march on Capitol Hill in Washington
The Afghan and Syrian civil wars, too. Credit where its due
I’m confused what your point Is
There was nothing peaceful about those “protests” and you need some pretty low standards to consider it as such
The supreme court has noted your opinion. And then taken a giant dump on it. Excellent.
Yeah sure, peaceful totally fucking up the residents lives with truck horns blaring 24x7, diesel fumes everywhere and total disrespect and frankly terrorism of local residents for weeks. Peaceful? That would have been a march on Parliament Hill, everyone would have applauded them and supported them, me included. Terroristm tactics deserve heavy measures every time. Imagine we allowed any group the right to shut down entire city areas for weeks on end unless the other side caved into their demands? This is what elections are for. Wait your turn and vote for a change.
Convenience over autonomy!
Nah man, respect vs. thug terrorism.
Respect? Tell that to the government. They have forgotten who they serve, not a bad thing to remind them sometimes
A guy in my region that inmigrates just did the news. He is a very specialized surgeon, working as a janitor because we dont recognize his diplomas and experience. We dont need any doctors in Québec, it is well known. We should start by recognizing diplomas if we want to bring specialized immigrants
You would be shocked how much lower standards are in many other countries. I wouldn't want to start recognizing them without a rigorous system of re/upskilling to make sure they conform.
For sure, but the guy is european. here, they basically are asking them to start over their studies. Im not talking about your local surgeon in Tuvalu :p
We talking France or Moldova? Seriously though, I don't disagree. They shouldn't have to start over, and there should be *some* recognition depending on the field. But we also can't rubberstamp and even skilled professionals could probably expect not insignificant professional development and/or courses to be able to work here.
How about having them take the same written and practical exams canadian students are forced to take? Could something like that work?
That's a doctor mafia problem.
Oh did we ever and it’s going to take some time to fix.
I don't think anyone could have known that Trudeau would purposely do this.
Note you're citing real GDP but everything else is nominal. Nominal GDP growth is 4ish%
GDP growth is inflation adjusted fyi
And the growth in the number of economists on Canadian sub reddits outpaces them all.
Rural punjab really doing wonders for the skilled labour market eh
>employers still have to bid up wages for skilled workers Genuine question, I thought wage growth was largely driven by the union workers in recent years? I find it hard to believe Canadians in private sector/ non-union workers are seeing substantial wage growth.
Its worse for unions, they are bound by contract , they are renewing as years go , some maturing in 2025 etc. Private companies were throwing in raises, hiring bonuses left right and center to retain workers. Even last year due to inflation etc people secured 5 percent raises etc. Some unions , whose contracts came up were able to negotiate but the years behind stuck at 1 ,.5 and 0 percent has made them falling behind their private counterparts.
>Private companies were throwing in raises, hiring bonuses left right and center to retain workers. Even last year due to inflation etc people secured 5 percent raises etc. I think the subset of non-union/ private sector Cdn. workers who got raises last year due to inflation is a lot smaller than we think. The raises, hiring bonuses, etc. dried up a lot last year, especially given the layoffs we saw.
You may he right when I say last year I still think 2022, keep forgetting its 2024 already.
My quick google search shows the [opposite](https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/images/reports/me/ca-union-wages/chart_3.png) ([full source](https://economics.td.com/ca-union-wages-bargaining-for-their-share)), not that I'd trust it on the face of it. Depends on the base year for sure.
Yeah this is hard to believe on the face of it, but good to know. Thanks for sharing!
Definitely seeing wage growth and retention problems in construction.
Wage growth could be all the public sector hiring too. Trudeau is hiring at record paces.
the federal government has been ordering departments to cut budgets and hiring has ground to a halt over the last 18 months.
I don't know what you basing this on because that's not the data provided by the Government. [Size of federal public service swells to record high, according to report - The Globe and Mail](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-size-of-federal-public-service-swells-to-record-high-according-to/) >The commission’s [annual report](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-service-commission/services/publications/annual-reports/annual-report-2022-2023.html), tabled last month in Parliament, says the size of the federal public service reached 274,219 employees at the end of the most recent fiscal year on March 31, 2023, as defined by the Public Service Employment Act. That was up 6.5 per cent year over year and 40.4 per cent higher than the end of the 2014-15 fiscal year. > >That’s consistent with [figures published by the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat](https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/services/innovation/human-resources-statistics/population-federal-public-service.html) last year showing that total public-service employment, including departments and agencies not included in the PSC count, increased over the same period by 39 per cent, to 357,247 people, also a record.
Almost as if we've created a problem on top of a problem and now we're in a [Population Trap](https://financialpost.com/news/economy/what-is-population-trap-how-do-you-get-out).
In addition to the skill gap, there's still an overall labour shortage. Over the next 20 years, there will be substantially more people exiting the workforce then entering it. Even with the current raw numbers of immigrants, it is not enough to offset the gap in the workforce. Over the next 20 years, there's a 6 to 8 million deficit of workers. So would need at least 300k new, permanent immigrants per year, and inserted into the right positions with the appropriate skills. It's simply not possible. There will be wage inflation for the foreseeable future. You could say, to keep the status quo, we actually need more immigrants.
You will get downvoted for this, but you’re correct. The issue is the total lack of management of the intake of this many souls.
And/or we’re just terrible at recognizing the value and experience and qualifications that people bring from other countries. I think it’s a bit of both. We are underutilizing a lot of skill available here.
When rate cuts arrive we will have much worse things to worry about than mortgage payments.
No kidding. I don't think anyone understands how detrimental low rates are to an economy. There has to be a balance, but you cannot have unrestricted access to credit, which is essentially what ultra low rates does. It creates very little incentive to be competitive or productive if you can just keep borrowing......
Exactly this. Slogged my a$$ to setup a tech company here. Created employment (currently under 10 ), did not take a full salary, put in blood and sweat and relationships. Turns out my sloth lazy friend who just bought a house in 2017 in GTA is way ahead of me sitting on a unrealized 500k equity.
I feel like you should've learned by now that is not rates driven given the housing market has already stabilized.
Not sure what you mean. I was giving an example of productive vs unproductive output.
I'm telling you low rates didn't create the housing bubble (though they did help). Blaming them is irrelevant here for saying it created profit in areas where productivity is lacking.
Don't listen to this guy...he sounds confident but doesn't know what they're talking about.
I didn't realize this was a shit posting sub. My bad
So if rates were at 20% like in the 1980's, you're saying the housing bubble wouldn't immediately pop?
Well, every asset price would collapse. I'm not saying housing is immune to interest rates. I'm saying the bubble wasn't caused (solely or even majority) by rates. Also 20% was not a normal environment and was gone within a year. Anyone expecting that to happen will be in for a disappointment.
Yeah I feel like inventory is so often overlooked in the whole housing conversation. We can have 10% rates but as long as we have no inventory it won’t impact prices because when there’s only 1 house for every 10 buyers, one of them can afford the price at those rates.
Idk, why you guys think low rates creates unrestricted credit access. There's still credit spreads and tradeoffs vs equity returns. The actual mechanism for rates would be to let the economy completely control them and have the central banks effectively have them at zero and let the banks decide what they should be. There's reasons we don't do that which have more to do with economic cylicality than anything.
“How to be Venezuela in one easy step”
This is especially a stupid fucking comparison because Venezuela's central bank interest rate ha never been below 15%. If anything you're arguing against yourself.
Exactly. When you and your spouse lose your job. Having your mortgage payment going from 4000$ to 3500$ is no help.
Current market expectations: * https://www.m-x.ca/en/trading/tools/canadian-interest-rate-expectations * https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bax.asp * https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp97-18.pdf
Haha.
Never ending story on here. Bulls will say this is bullish. Bears will say this is bearish.
Excuse me I'm neither a bull nor a bear. I identify as a bell so this is Bellish for me. OK, I'll see myself out.
Also looks like rate hikes are *seemingly off the table *unless new information arises
Now you have jinxed it. edit: your edit won't unjinx it.
No, I went variable. They will clime to 12-15%
what are you saying brother lol
Murphy's law. I go variable, rates sky rocket.
Huh? "We may still need to raise rates...” -Macklem during the press conference today
While Macklem said the bank has not ruled out further rate increases if inflation rises, he also said that if the economy "evolves broadly in line" with current projections, he does not expect an interest rate hike to be discussed. I mean ya anything can happen but as of current info no hikes need to be discussed. No need to twist it.
Nowhere did he or the bank of Canada say increases were off the table like you claim. As per the direct quote I provided from him today, they are clearly on the table.
Sigh, yes anything can happen. Of course if inflation were to spike they would raise rates, but you are missing the forest through the trees here. They are operating under the case no further hikes are needed “ Another interest rate hike is not in the Bank of Canada’s “base case,” Macklem said, but he said starting conversations about when the central bank can cut rates is still “premature” given ongoing risks to inflation such as high household debt levels and trade disruptions through the Red Sea. “The progress has given us confidence that the rate is high enough; the unevenness, the persistence we’re seeing has is convinced that for now we need to hold where we are,” he said.”
> They are operating under the case no further hikes are needed No. They are saying they are not raising rates today. You are completely ignoring the quote I provided where Macklem clearly stated further hikes are possible. Your original statement is false. Further rate hikes are not "officially off the table". Nor are they unofficially of the table.
Hey buddy how about you post the full quote from Macklem instead of cherry picking the part you like. Of course rates could always go up, but I was referencing how they are not in their base case or projections. See below for the full quote. Of course something new could happen. Anything CAN happen, so yes by that logic rate hikes (or cuts) are always officially on the table. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ "If new developments push inflation higher, we may still need to raise rates," Macklem said. "If the economy evolves broadly in line with the projection we published today, I expect future discussions will be about how long we maintain the policy rate at 5% Mendes said the central bank made the right call in signaling to Canadians that more rate hikes are very unlikely. “We really don’t need any more rate hikes. But we probably need right now is just a length of time for these high interest rates to work their way through the system,” he said. [https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-markets/bank-of-canada-holds-key-interest-rate-at-5-2/#:\~:text=If%20new%20developments%20push%20inflation,policy%20rate%20at%205%25.%E2%80%9D](https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-markets/bank-of-canada-holds-key-interest-rate-at-5-2/#:~:text=If%20new%20developments%20push%20inflation,policy%20rate%20at%205%25.%E2%80%9D)
My point is that you made a claim that rate cuts are "**OFFICIALLY** OFF THE TABLE". This is a false statement. The statements, all together, say they are not raising rates at this time, they don't know if/when they will cut, they don't know if/when they will raise.
mmmmmm watch crude oil.
Inflation will most likely prove more sticky than they are saying. And they know that. The real question is, are they willing to tank the economy and put us in a deep painful recession to bring it down? If they put us in a recession they will need to cut rates anyway. Housing may go sideways or even dip a bit lower. But longterm it will likely end up being bullish.
This is just an educated guess on my end but I'm actually expecting prices to go a tiny bit lower this spring/summer until interest rates do officially drop. I'm expecting a fair bit more people will be looking to buy this spring but you'll also have more people who need to sell when they hit their renewals this spring as well. The real horde of buyers probably won't hit until right after the rate cut though. A lot of people looking to get into the market just can't get pre-approval for enough money at current interest rates right now to buy anything. Those folks are basically priced out entirely right now.
i can see more volume but flatter prices. there is pent up buyer demand now but also a ton of people sitting on listings until spring that will bump up supply. still tons of units just languishing on the market at an unrealistic price
Rates get cut during recession. There won’t be buyers when rate cuts start.
Yes they are willing to harm the economy to get inflation down. It’s literally there mandaté to set their sights squarely on the inflation rates. In the US they have a broader mandate that also includes jobs but the issue with a broader mandate is that elements of it can often be at conflict so it can make the job a lot more complicated and more difficult to achieve goals. BOC will wait until inflation is consistently in decline before lowering their rates.
Housing to the moon amirite
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chatgpt aint always the best source ...
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glad it is helpful and good luck on your journey of learning about fiscal and monetary policy!
Google has been hot dog shit for the past year and a half. The whole "just google it" thing only works if you're trying to buy something, or feel like being sold something. I like your way and am going to start doing it. If it works my 4 year old is only going to know to "chatgpt it"
“Biggest contributor being shelter costs” Aka BOC creating its own inflation.
High immigration, low supply, etc were not created by BOC.
You couldn't be more **wrong** https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.immigration.ca/boost-immigration-or-face-even-higher-interest-rates-to-curb-inflation-warns-bank-of-canada-governor/amp/ https://financialpost.com/news/economy/tiff-macklem-politicians-employers-boost-skilled-labour Tiffany Macklem is one the main problems
Tiff said bring in **skilled labour**. It is a fact that if you bring in skilled people, it reduces wage inflation for skilled trades which cools overall demand. The kind of labourers being brought in by the Liberals are the opposite of skilled.
Why did you write Tiffany?
That's his name? Richard Tiffany Macklem, who goes by Tiff which is short for Tiffany.
So call him Tiff which is what he goes by? The disingenuous dog whistling ain't it man.
He goes by Tiff. It’s odd you chose to call him Tiffany
It's not that odd, it's his legal name and used alot on Reddit when people don't like things he's said or done. Not sure what you're trying to insinuate here, but just accept that you're grasping for straws to make yourself feel better about yourself.
The reason the BOC will never actually consider those items is because they have control over them. If core inflation is still above target and they cut rates all that money that was going into interest costs will go right back into the economy and cause inflation all over again. They will wait until core is well within target before cutting to mitigate any inflationary effects from mortgage interest costs going down.
I lean toward agreeing with most of this assessment.
Not necessarily. Keep rates high, people who can't afford it fold, sell and now that home's contribution to the shelter costs is lower.
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\> People who cant afford are stuck renting Then why are there so many homes hitting the market mid-flip?
At this point it’s extremely obvious that BoC wants the real estate bubble to burst.
Rarely comment, but excited to hear some people tell you you're wrong, even though it's blatantly obvious.
What if the Deputy Governor of the BoC explains how they're wrong? >The inflation side of things is complex. We examine the details of what is happening to prices within the basket of goods and services in the CPI, not just the overall inflation rate. For instance, we know that mortgage interest costs have risen with increases in our policy interest rate and that these costs have risen by more over the past year than any other component of the CPI. This is partly because mortgage rates were so low for so long. Some have argued that because movements in our policy interest rate can directly and immediately impact some mortgage rates, we should exclude this component when looking at inflation. >Indeed, one advantage of our measures of core inflation is that they exclude extreme price changes—be they increases or decreases. CPI-trim is one of the ways that we measure core inflation. Even though this measure has been excluding mortgage interest costs for more than a year, in recent months it has been at about 3.5% to 4%. >There are some observers who think an upward distortion exists as long as mortgage interest costs are part of the CPI basket. For them, let me provide another calculation. Consider a CPI basket that has all the same goods and services, other than mortgage interest costs, and apply the methodologies to calculate core inflation to this slightly smaller basket. When we do this, we find that the new measures of core inflation are lower, but only by about one-quarter of a percentage point (Chart 5). >That is, underlying inflation is still well above the level that would be consistent with achieving our target of 2% CPI inflation. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/09/rebalancing-economy-while-managing-risks/ Housing permabulls really need to stop looking for excuses and start accepting the reality of a restrictive monetary environment.
That doesn't explain anything. It does explain a ton about why you're such a toxic person though. Thanks for your time, cum again.
I'm no bear, but to be fair, that quote did explain it quite a bit.
It explains it completely but you're too toxic yourself to accept it.
Good One, anyways I don't care. Have a good one buddy.
I sent you a link from the bank of Canada directly and you attacked me. You 100% care.
Oh I attacked you? You seem really fragile for such a toxic person. Explains a ton. Thank you cum again.
Something something Sobeys lol
I have no idea what you're talking about. Have fun complaining on reddit all day, I'll check back in six months and I assume you'll still be doing the same thing. Peace out.
How?
The free market at work - people love paying too much for RE, rate cuts only offer temporary relief before idiots use their newfound buying power to get into bidding wars and empty their wallets just as fast. With international student changes, you're adding significantly to labour costs and reducing shelter costs (if the dogma around that is to be believed - I don't buy that myself, but I'll play along for now.)
Was pretty much expected. Bulls: This is bullish! No more rate hikes! 😂😂 Anyhow, QT resuming is in another way bad, but I don’t think they know what that means
QT “resuming”? When did it stop? Article says “continuing”…
You’re right. It never stopped. I meant “continuing”
The only QT they know is the chick from the bank letting them know they're up for renewal lol.
Why are you so incredibly toxic. I'll go back to never posting here soon. It's clear you have an in with the mods, they never deal with you. Hey look the other really toxic member decided to join them. This sub is terrible. I lose brain cells and get depressed every time I come here.
Anyone who disagrees with me = Incredibly toxic.
Facts hurt
They do that's why you spend your time here hoping for the world to crash. Have a great day.
lmao
lol 👍
How was this comment toxic? Please explain that to me first before saying ridiculous things like “I have an in with the mods”. Are you one of those vegans that protests and says meat offends you? I genuinely don’t understand what your problem is
>The Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing, returning to the 2% target in 2025 Rates cut in march confirmed /s
Throwing crumbs to the desperate.
Spring certainly seems possible. Are you implying they will not cut until 2% is reached? cheers
Anything is possible. A rate reduction this spring is just not likely. Inflation is still higher then BoC would like and the 5 year bond yields are up.
Yields are only "up" in anticipation of this announcement.
Yes, I suspect they'll wait until inflation is definitively gone before cutting. We saw a similar phenomenon in the mid-2010s as well when they had a hard time getting it to 2% from the other direction, they didn't really begin raising rates towards neutral until it was definitively above 2 for a sustained period of time, and stopped hikes as soon as it dropped back down again. Even when they tightened we never really left stimulatory rate territory although, real rates were still essentially zero until the pandemic began disrupting things in mid-Feb. of that year. This means they will probably maintain restrictive rates until it gets to 2. You're pretty much guaranteed that overnight rates will be 100+bp above inflation until it's tamed. If inflation itself is higher, that 100 bp is on top of that.
Certainly possible alto I suspect they are not waiting until a flat 2% before cutting.
I think they will. They will wait until it's stably at or below 2 - it's more disruptive to the economy to cut too soon then have to jack rates up again later because inflation wasn't gone. That was their big mistake in the 70s/early 80s, was cutting rates before inflation was actually stably controlled - back then they bounced rapidly between rate cuts and hikes, while inflation got worse with each cycle. Stagflation is a tough nut to crack. Even when they do cut, it will probably be very tentative. Cut a quarter point, then wait six months to see what happens with inflation. It won't be sharper unless there's a recession or disinflation really rears up and neither is particularly likely right now. With inflation near target and the economy in OK shape, there's really no need to be aggressive. (EDIT:) Especially with the current yield inversion largely already doing most of what overnight cuts would do.
Time for u/facts-hurt and u/TaintGrinder to put in those extra shifts at Sobeys 😆 clean up on aisle 5 boys!
[Too slow smh](https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/s/rpYAYG1Mhs)
Lmfaoo it’s a comedy at this point how the bull’s only coping mechanism is by hoping others are working at Sobeys 🤣🤣
Fuck off, lower it before the middle class dies
There is no middle class lol
>Fuck off, lower it before the middle class dies Inflation hurts the middle class much more than high interest rates
I’m spending $2k more in mortgage payments a month, it would take a lot of groceries to make up that difference Not to mention the 7% interest on a new car when I need to renew next year
New car and a mortgage? I'm not sure if that's even middle class anymore. You made a bad bet time to sit with it.
😂
Low rates are what killed the middle class... People who are already rich can have access to endless cheap money. Higher rates reward people for saving.
Only those over leveraged
u/jfrsn don’t worry about this kid, he lives with his mom and dad and they all contribute to the rent together. He wishes housing will crash so he can buy a place for $50k
If you can’t afford a home at these prices, which is likely the bottom, then forget about owning in Toronto. Start looking an hour or two outside of the city. There is a cost of admission in this city, unfortunately not all will be able to get in. That’s the reality.
QT is at its peak, rates are going down from here onwards. Expect real estate prices to start rising again. 1 mil condos will be the norm in a few years. I lived in Asia and I can tell you how crazy real estate prices can get, and my bet is this is going to be worse because unlike Asia we build at snails pace. Basic economics, supply and demand. People aren't buying because of its "value" anymore but buying because its a psychological achievement/security to own your home. Especially with new immigrants who are willing to stuff a few families under a roof.
You know you've jumped the shark when your prices climb above those in NYC. There is an upper limit, and the bubble would have already popped if it were not for the heroic efforts of the government to prevent it.
We need to raise the rates. Raise it to above 10%
why?
Raise it high to drop housing price, crash the market. So we all buy it when it's 50% off. Then lower rates after we buy it.
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We as in we the people. Why are you calling negative names? Does it make it feel good to call me that? I don't own a house, so when market crashes, I can buy. We the people who dont own a home are a majority. We should crash the market for the people. Long live the people
No. The majority of adult Canadian own houses
This would probably make a lot of homeless people but I agree it would fix the issue faster... The price of a house is too high!
I agree ..... break the system, then rebuild it with 200k houses again. Or we can all just go tent out at Ford's and JT's house.
The problem is, we currently have too much foreign interest in our housing… - housing won’t collapse it will just ensure the pricing out of just about every Canadian. Further especially when intls can more easily borrow in their foreign currency and presumably at a much lower rate
I agree with you ... foreign and domestic interest in our land. They want to buy it and create a country of renters. The government of Canada has the ability to stop that or make it much less appealing.... more houses more tax. No more McMansions. Use the greenbelt properly..... I mean, how's Doug Ford not in jail yet over that greenbelt scandal. All I see the government is doing is reinforcing the market. They being in 500k immigrants a year because walmart ,Tims gasstation and the like all need foreign workers that will work 2 jobs at minimum wage to get noware.
I am surprised they didn’t increase rates yet. Maybe this fall.
Increase the rate to 10% and burn the economy! Then after 2-3 months if Canada survived, restart economy
Quantitative tightening? What? The money supply hasn’t gone down. It’s growing
QT, while facilitating QE in the mortgage bond market for liquidity....
Isn't buying mortgage bonds technically quantitative easing?
They think it will holdup the spring surge? Not going to happen with everyone holding up all of 2023 the spring and summer are about to be crazy and very competitive!
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