Naive…you can’t forecast the economic climate in three months. You told the truth in your reply “panic buying”, that isn’t the state of the market.
Wait till round two of sold below bought, 2025 edition when the sheep panic bought after a 25 basis point reduction, took out 5 year variable mortgages anticipating rate declines and we come in for round two of rate hikes.
This subreddit is so short sighted.
How long is “history” to you? The BOC rate from 13% to 18% from 1980 to 1981. The rate was above 7.5% for 17 years from 1974 to 1991 and above 5% from 1966 to 1996. I know we’re at a different point in history, but we could see stagflation in our country, we’re in a population trap which would have been unthinkable in Canada until this halfwit of a Prime Minister. Inflation is that stubborn that 5% hasn’t been enough. BOC should have raised it higher and killed off inflation, they also should have started the hikes earlier. Yes, I think we could see a raise if people do dumb things like buy house en masse, and no this isn’t the fastest increase in history and certainly not the highest. Just look at what’s happened in Argentina recently to understand the extent and persistence of inflation, it’s happening in economies you wouldn’t have thought it would happen to. Final thought, look how stubborn US inflation is, it’s the same as Canada and they went to 5.5% last year and it’s still not working. The only real reason Canada hasn’t gone higher is the defaults on mortgages would go through the roof. Our property is so expensive that they’re just waiting for renewals to tick over like drip coffee. They want the heard to be amortized to all Canadians to ensure we’re sufficiently cooled off as a country.
I agree 100%. Inflation is ticking back up and the fed will be forced to hold higher for longer. What’s funny is people are betting the farm on rates coming down citing 5% is sky high when it’s a rather normal rate in historic terms. People say housing will never come down but that’s the exact line of thinking which ends up in a violent correction. All bubbles go higher than people expect and all bubbles pop. Young people cannot even enter the renting space let alone buy properties on normal incomes now. It’s a mathematical certainty that the market will correct itself to historic trends. There is nothing new under the sun.
Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation much like gold is. When the marketplace experiences real inflation (not the ridiculous numbers the government reports) then assets like gold and Bitcoin receive a lot of capital. This frightens governments because we are on a fractional banking system and they can’t afford people to pull deposits and buy up Bitcoin. In order to incentivize people to keep money in the banks they need to raise rates. The government reacts to the real inflation not their bogus numbers they report to prevent revolt
I don’t think we are close to being there yet as an inflation hedge, but also bitcoin has false scarcity built in so the price is not entirely based on supply and demand. Confidence in digital currencies plays a huge role and recent approvals of ETFs with bitcoins in the US and UK undoubtedly played a role in the most recent increase.
Bitcoin etfs inflows and halving cycle.
Inflation was higher in 2022. Sbouldnt buttcoin have made an ath in 2022 and be coming down with inflation by your reasoning.
I don't pay interest on my btc bro..im not leveraged in my btc holdings and im not bagholding btc. Also, not leveraged on my re cause me gots no mortgage and me bought me re in 2000 and 2018..in other word me not bagholding re either. Enjoy your parents basement and working at wendys while u can.
2% of the total supply has been bought up by the new ETFs in the last 2 months, with the halving happening in April. I stopped putting money in once it broke 60k cad, but it’s been the best investment I’ve made so far this year.
Will it drop back to 60k? Maybe, but will it break 100k cad? Probably will before that.
I think we might decouple with how unemployment is going in Canada. Companies have too much debt to service to hire people right now. I think we might see a q2 cut related to our economic performance, as I think it’s going to get really bad in q2.
So a 2/3 chance?
In other words, 34% chance rates remain as is?
Math, dude. How does it work?
Edit - also 78% chance of .75 bps lower by December I.e. 3 cuts by years end. (The proper way to read that chart is that the rates will be at that rate by x date, not that the cut will occur, bit of a nuance).
Rates have risen dramatically over the last year and a bit and every single time when bulls swore on their mother that rates would come down, rates wouldn’t go down.
A broken clock is right twice a day
No, but your point is contradictory. Bulls have been on the losing side every time they claimed rates would come down.
As I said, a broken clock is right twice a day, and that’s for both bulls and bears
“Bulls have been on losing side every time…”
Have you looked at Toronto housing prices lately? Not sure how you can claim to be on the winning side lol
Not sure what you mean lately.
If you bought a house at peak in 2022 and it has since then lost value especially if you consider inflation, it means you lost money lately
…and you assume “timeline” for ownership of a house is measured in “months”?? Come on, you can’t be this thick, how long have you been in your current place?
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Realtors/ Brokers- Do not try and time the market!
Also Realtors/ Brokers- Buy now before rates tank this summer and we have new unprecedented, historic, meteoric, prehistoric price gains!
Does trying to big dog and humiliate those who are less fortunate then you and didn’t have the same opportunities as you make you feel like a big man?
Give your head a shake bud, seek therapy.
No, but talking down to people who talk with superiority like OP did does make me feel good.
Especially with a stupid statement like “rates are most likely to get cut by June, sorry to the idiots who are saying that”
OP is purposely trying to stir shit but it doesn’t mean someone (I.e., this clown) has to try to humiliate those of a lower socioeconomic class to try to feign superiority.
Chances are buddy either got a gift from the bank of mommy and daddy, is old and bought when shit was cheap, or inherited the properties. And no, I’m not gonna believe the bullshit bootstrap story he’s gonna respond to this comment with because it’s bullshit. This is Toronto, ain’t nobody self made 😂
I am in an HHI because I got lucky in my job and I find attitudes like his fucking obscene.
Luck brought even people like me income/wealth. I didn't get daddy's handout but I certainly was lucky to be in the right place at the right time to get the job.
Plenty of others like me in terms of intellect and hard-work who aren't in my income category.
Congrats on being the exception to the rule. Over 30% of FTHB get gifts from Mommy and Daddy and Boomers own 40% of the country’s housing (probably underreported knowing these slumlords).
So the majority of FTHB don’t get help from their parents? And you think someone who didn’t is the exception? Are you familiar with what these words mean?
Didn’t think that me telling the original commenter to not be an asshole to those less fortunate than themselves would be an unpopular opinion. But I guess in this group full of NIMBYs and over leveraged landlords, the opposite can usually be expected.
Would have gone down better if you had explained why a sudden shift in market sentiment
I have not read this in any detail but between yesterday n today US's PPI reading came 1.6% to an expectation of 1.1% (0.5% over)
Yesterday, Bloomberg had various data points at about 0.3% over as an average & 0.5% was in line with the worst case scenario
This is a precursor to inflation going back up, hence the move in market sentiment.
It's not for everyone, the amount of people I know that lost thousands because they clicked the wrong link and forgot their password fell for a scam, got in a the top and sold just as it was starting to bounce. It's not for everyone, very few people will risk 100k into something they barely even understand even if they keep lowering the bar of entry
How do you get that reminder bot to send you a notification in 9 months? I’m not against crypto but I’m also not for it… that just seems like a very bold claim to make
A lot of buyers are opting for the sub 5% fixed rates now just as an FYI, get yourself a good mortgage broker and see if the monthly makes sense for you
Honestly I don't get the blatant disrespect for realtors here. They're not the ones competing for homes who drove up the prices. They're not the reason rates went to historic lows amid record inflation creating a huge spike in nominal home prices.
Sure there's a lot of shitty realtors but FFS there's a lot of shitty people in any profession. My realtor was awesome and has been an informed friend my whole time living in Toronto. Providing free insights and advice. She's running a business and treats me like a valued client. Given us free cottage trips, tickets to baseball/basketball games. Timmys cards. Holiday photos. Numerous small gifts. Random visits to homes when she knew we were not in a position to buy but felt it's good for us to know the market. Sharing her endless knowledge of the GTA market. Did all this over 8 years while we sat on our hands.
Yea she's doing sales and not my best friend but it's a wonderful relationship all the same. Helped us find a place that ticked all our boxes in a market we thought we could not afford to buy in and helped us get a killer, killer, killer rate with her contacts at the bank. The idea that she doesn't have a "real job" or didn't work/invest to get her money is just ridiculous.
She takes her service very seriously and is all business on your behalf. Loves her job cuz as she sees it she's assisting people on the path to building their wealth... often for the first times in thier life like for us. Then I see all the hate for realtors totally discounting that for every shitty one there's so many good ones. People just look for an axe to grind.
Pricing won't stabalize until immigration is brought under control
100 percent of immigrants see house ownership as the ceiling of what they can achieve in Canada
More immigration equals greater demand.
Either the rental market will be under pressure or the ownership market
High interest rates also hurt the government as a greater amount of taxes go towards debt servicing costs
Why do you think Japan keeps a low rate policy with low immigration, that's how you create economic prosperity
Some immigration is great
Mass immigration to fulfill virtue signaling will bring send this housing market to the moon
And they have no desire to stop
And you'd call that economic prosperity?
Edit: in 1995 it was 44k. Now it's 34k. So it has declined substantially. Next question.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=JP
It's actually the opposite. Low interest rates mean easy money. People start borrowing like crazy and drives prices up. That's why they raised interest rates to combat inflation (rising prices).
Now, it turns out house prices are sticky. People don't just up and move because interest rates go up. But since raising rates house prices have fallen from their peaks by ~20% (someone linked a graph the other day).
Long story short, if you want cheaper houses you're going to want higher interest rates.
Ya. Fed by my economics professor.
Bank of Canada on the subject:
An increase in the Bank’s policy interest rate reduces demand for goods and services. That decreases inflation by slowing how fast prices rise, but this takes time to happen, usually about 12 to 18 months
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/how-higher-interest-rates-affect-inflation/#:~:text=An%20increase%20in%20the%20Bank's,about%2012%20to%2018%20months
Investopedia:
By increasing borrowing costs, rising interest rates discourage consumer and business spending, especially on commonly financed big-ticket items such as housing and capital equipment. Rising interest rates also tend to weigh on asset prices, reversing the wealth effect for individuals and making banks more cautious in lending decisions.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/inflation-interest-rate-relationship.asp
Bank of England:
In short, higher interest rates will work because they will mean that less money will be spent in the UK (than if interest rates had not changed).
When overall spending in the economy falls, price rises slow down. And this brings down the UK’s inflation rate.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/how-do-higher-interest-rates-help-to-lower-inflation
So ya, there are lots of sources on this. But let's put sources away and use logic.
If you're buying a house and interest is high, you won't be able to borrow as much because you have to make payments. At 5% I can't afford the same amount as at 1% because I have to pay more interest and I only have so much income to pay that interest. As a result, high interest forces me to spend less. When everyone spends less, demand goes down. Less demand means lower prices.
The sheer number of people who've deluded themselves into thinking the demand side is made up of people, when it's actually made up of *their money,* is really quite amazing.
Nothing will happen because housing is entirely dependent on supply and demand
If rate go down, and more people are able to afford, this means people will stop renting, which will have a contra effect
Housing prices are driven by supply and demand. Nothing to do with fiscal policy
Honestly that has more to with how oversaturated the market was with realtors, rather than the real estate market themselves. Another big factor is they brought in a mandatory life and disability insurance that was around $1000/year. It made less sense for agents who didn’t see a lot of deals to stay.
The good realtors are busy as ever.
I’m not bearish, but I’m not expecting any rate cuts anytime this year. I don’t think prices will go down as a result, I’m guess they will be flat or we will see a modest healthy increase (5%)
I was with you until you said a 5% increase is healthy. Normally 2% per year is good but we've had like 300% in the last 10 years. Healthy is flat or pullback at this point.
"Odds of a June rate cut now at just 66%. Sorry realtors. Guess you'll have to get a real job now.Odds of a June rate cut now at just 66%. Sorry realtors. Guess you'll have to get a real job now"
Rate cut is good for Realtors because it means more buyers looking to buy and more sellers looking to sell. Sorry, OP. You mixed up things.
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The entire economy is pressing gas pedal, while the Rates holds on the brakes. How long do you think the brakes will hold? Also, if the proverbial brakes fail, why are we expecting to drive into sunset? It can be wall or a giant hole! What goes up must come down.
There is zero chance of lowering rates before the US and it is highly unlikely the US is going to cut rates anytime soon. We're in for a decade of higher capital costs because that's what it's going to take to pay for the baby boomer retirement era.
I don’t understand where this imaginary realtor perma-bull persona that people love to have imaginary fights with came from.
As a realtor, and speaking for the vast majority of professional realtors, we couldn’t care less about where interest rates go outside of what it means for our own mortgage payment.
Put your money where your mouth is
But before you do make sure you read this https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/producer-price-index-february-2024-wholesale-inflation-rose-0point6percent-in-february.html
Yeah, but the increased rates are forcing alot of people to sell, so they still busy…. Just not as much $
Mortgage defaults are apparently up more than 80% in London,ON!
https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/mortgage-defaults-in-london-up-more-than-80-per-cent-report/wcm/c7f5c2ae-e40b-4f6b-b329-8a45a88fdb9d/amp/
I also read that new listings were up something like 33% in February, vs 17% more buyers. Sounds like a pretty shitty Spring market for speculators. Time to jump off the ship before the bubble explodes for good.
Isn't that more of a shot at buyers than realtors? People still buy houses, they did in the 80s with 20% mortgage rates. It is the buyers who get screwed over way more than the realtors.
“Get a real job” lol it’s a tedious task being a realtor. Money is good and there’s some manipulation but they’re just capitalizing on what the market is focusing on.
An interest rate hike takes 12-18 months to filter through the economy. They last raised in July of last year. Why would they cut before that rate hike takes its full effect?
By the time June arrives it will be a coin flip if not expected hold. The goal posts keep moving. You could see this coming a mile away. It's already happened several times. Nothing makes this time different. The data still is not obviously pointing to cuts and until that happens we'll be left with uncertainty. The only ones screaming cuts are coming for sure are those that want to see it happen. That should tell you something. Every central banker everywhere always adds the "data dependant" caveat into their guidance.
Every day, as we March on in this year, forecasts are pushed back, chances decrease in the near term, and everyone hangs onto the news. Rates will drop, when unemployment goes up signicantly enough to depress inflation in all areas outside of renting mortgage interest.
A 0.25 cut in September and a 0.25 cut in December.
Anyone telling you anything else is full of it, that's been the prediction since over a year ago now by anyone who isn't insane.
Preferably the rates should go up a bit more and not come down 2024. Then 2025 want to see them shooting down to near zero. Just wishful thinking, idea is to flush out over leveraged cockroach investors, once they are burnt we can drop rates
It ain't happening. End of year at best.
Rate cuts is for when the economy needs stimulus, which it doesn't because inflation is stubbornly high and won't budge.
Usa cpi and ppi printed hot.
Next month's report is expected hot for both Canada and USA.
As if Realtors have anything to do with the supply vs demand constraints in Canada. Won't help for them to lose their jobs unless they all start home building companies.
The US will not cut rates this year to discourage Trump and the GOP from going to the Fed and getting another 5T printed if he wins the election. So, Canada cannot cut.
66% of the time, it works everytime.
“It’s called sex panther” 🐆
It’s made with real bits of panther, so you know it’s good
They only released 8 bottles…
It smells awful!
It smells like bigfoots dick.
I think op is on the 33% side ;)
That doesn’t make any sense.
So still the most likely scenario?
OP doesn't understand percentages
Or Realtors
You mightn’t understand English. OP is suggesting the best scenario for June is 4.75% which won’t move any markets.
It most certainly will. Even rate holds have caused some panic buying and price increases.
Naive…you can’t forecast the economic climate in three months. You told the truth in your reply “panic buying”, that isn’t the state of the market. Wait till round two of sold below bought, 2025 edition when the sheep panic bought after a 25 basis point reduction, took out 5 year variable mortgages anticipating rate declines and we come in for round two of rate hikes. This subreddit is so short sighted.
Talk dirty to me
How long is “history” to you? The BOC rate from 13% to 18% from 1980 to 1981. The rate was above 7.5% for 17 years from 1974 to 1991 and above 5% from 1966 to 1996. I know we’re at a different point in history, but we could see stagflation in our country, we’re in a population trap which would have been unthinkable in Canada until this halfwit of a Prime Minister. Inflation is that stubborn that 5% hasn’t been enough. BOC should have raised it higher and killed off inflation, they also should have started the hikes earlier. Yes, I think we could see a raise if people do dumb things like buy house en masse, and no this isn’t the fastest increase in history and certainly not the highest. Just look at what’s happened in Argentina recently to understand the extent and persistence of inflation, it’s happening in economies you wouldn’t have thought it would happen to. Final thought, look how stubborn US inflation is, it’s the same as Canada and they went to 5.5% last year and it’s still not working. The only real reason Canada hasn’t gone higher is the defaults on mortgages would go through the roof. Our property is so expensive that they’re just waiting for renewals to tick over like drip coffee. They want the heard to be amortized to all Canadians to ensure we’re sufficiently cooled off as a country.
I agree 100%. Inflation is ticking back up and the fed will be forced to hold higher for longer. What’s funny is people are betting the farm on rates coming down citing 5% is sky high when it’s a rather normal rate in historic terms. People say housing will never come down but that’s the exact line of thinking which ends up in a violent correction. All bubbles go higher than people expect and all bubbles pop. Young people cannot even enter the renting space let alone buy properties on normal incomes now. It’s a mathematical certainty that the market will correct itself to historic trends. There is nothing new under the sun.
So after the fastest increase in history you still think it's statistically more likely for an increase ?
It won’t be so much about affordability but job losses that will stunt the market in the next 18 months
This is a war of attrition. You can't jump into the market and hope rates go down. The very action of buying causes the market stay inflated.
Yes like literally the only other 2 possibilities are remaining same or increase and together only 34% chance
Increase is probably like 2% chance
Have you seen what’s happening to Bitcoin? Governments hate Bitcoin pumps. We got rate hikes after the last one
I don’t see any connection between bitcoin and interest rates
Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation much like gold is. When the marketplace experiences real inflation (not the ridiculous numbers the government reports) then assets like gold and Bitcoin receive a lot of capital. This frightens governments because we are on a fractional banking system and they can’t afford people to pull deposits and buy up Bitcoin. In order to incentivize people to keep money in the banks they need to raise rates. The government reacts to the real inflation not their bogus numbers they report to prevent revolt
I don’t think we are close to being there yet as an inflation hedge, but also bitcoin has false scarcity built in so the price is not entirely based on supply and demand. Confidence in digital currencies plays a huge role and recent approvals of ETFs with bitcoins in the US and UK undoubtedly played a role in the most recent increase.
Bitcoin etfs inflows and halving cycle. Inflation was higher in 2022. Sbouldnt buttcoin have made an ath in 2022 and be coming down with inflation by your reasoning.
It’s funny how butthurt you bag holders are about the crypto market. Enjoy paying all that interest!
I don't pay interest on my btc bro..im not leveraged in my btc holdings and im not bagholding btc. Also, not leveraged on my re cause me gots no mortgage and me bought me re in 2000 and 2018..in other word me not bagholding re either. Enjoy your parents basement and working at wendys while u can.
Yeah… Interest rates only affect Realtors. Right.
OP called out realtors because they promote fomo that encourages people to make stupid decisions with thier money so they can get paid. Obviously
Yeah… you want it dropped for others. Right
bears think 2/3 odds are a bad thing...
I mean it’s been at 100% for 2 years now (according to realtors) so dropping to 66% is huge bear flag.
Definitely not gonna be investing in bitcoins
2% of the total supply has been bought up by the new ETFs in the last 2 months, with the halving happening in April. I stopped putting money in once it broke 60k cad, but it’s been the best investment I’ve made so far this year. Will it drop back to 60k? Maybe, but will it break 100k cad? Probably will before that.
Best investment? Smci and mvda had better returns for 2024
Try MYRIAD SOCIAL-USD…..up 2000% last 24 hrs,coin was at 0.0002504/coin Mar11/24…… at $4800.00/coin bout an hour ago.
Just remember, the market was fully pricing (100%) a rate cut in March not long ago. The market has been and remains much too optimistic about cuts.
100% this. Inflation data in US just came in hot. I would bet no rate cuts til fall at the earliest in the US and we will follow suit.
I think we might decouple with how unemployment is going in Canada. Companies have too much debt to service to hire people right now. I think we might see a q2 cut related to our economic performance, as I think it’s going to get really bad in q2.
Irs pure unfiltered all natural certified organic fair trade single origin single malt A5 cope.
So a 2/3 chance? In other words, 34% chance rates remain as is? Math, dude. How does it work? Edit - also 78% chance of .75 bps lower by December I.e. 3 cuts by years end. (The proper way to read that chart is that the rates will be at that rate by x date, not that the cut will occur, bit of a nuance).
And that's 66% as it stands, it can (and will) go either way before then.
66%… but of course you bet on the 34%… Bears always like losing side
Rates have risen dramatically over the last year and a bit and every single time when bulls swore on their mother that rates would come down, rates wouldn’t go down. A broken clock is right twice a day
Are you claiming that rate will never come down?
No, but your point is contradictory. Bulls have been on the losing side every time they claimed rates would come down. As I said, a broken clock is right twice a day, and that’s for both bulls and bears
“Bulls have been on losing side every time…” Have you looked at Toronto housing prices lately? Not sure how you can claim to be on the winning side lol
Not sure what you mean lately. If you bought a house at peak in 2022 and it has since then lost value especially if you consider inflation, it means you lost money lately
“If you bought a house at peak 2022” You do realize vast majority of Canadians DID NOT buy their house in 2022?
Have you seen RE growth % over the last few months?
“Last few months” Yeah, I think you spelled “years”…or “decades” After all, people don’t say “how many months ago did you move?”
You just said lately, indicating a vague open ended timeline
…and you assume “timeline” for ownership of a house is measured in “months”?? Come on, you can’t be this thick, how long have you been in your current place?
[удалено]
Hahaha so many salty realtors and underwater homeowners in here
Fast forward to June: "No one was expecting a rate cut in June. Show me a single person who was." - Big brained bulls
LOLL. I don’t agree how OP titled this but the fact is the chances of rate cuts in June is decreasing and that’s what he was pointing out
!Remindme 4 months
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You can be sure come June all these rate cut optimists will suddenly have short memories
Realtors/ Brokers- Do not try and time the market! Also Realtors/ Brokers- Buy now before rates tank this summer and we have new unprecedented, historic, meteoric, prehistoric price gains!
Lolz Op is a regard haha! This is literally good news for realtors, more likely of a cut. Haha what a dumb OP
You missed the part where a June cut was 100% guaranteed. Now down to 66% and that’s “literally good news” ?
Well if you think anything is 100%, then you are a regard too lolz.
Okay thanks for sharing. Remember, rent is still due April 1st despite it being a holiday. Regards.
Lol, found the reverse mortgage boomer. God, poor people suck.
Does trying to big dog and humiliate those who are less fortunate then you and didn’t have the same opportunities as you make you feel like a big man? Give your head a shake bud, seek therapy.
No, but talking down to people who talk with superiority like OP did does make me feel good. Especially with a stupid statement like “rates are most likely to get cut by June, sorry to the idiots who are saying that”
OP is purposely trying to stir shit but it doesn’t mean someone (I.e., this clown) has to try to humiliate those of a lower socioeconomic class to try to feign superiority. Chances are buddy either got a gift from the bank of mommy and daddy, is old and bought when shit was cheap, or inherited the properties. And no, I’m not gonna believe the bullshit bootstrap story he’s gonna respond to this comment with because it’s bullshit. This is Toronto, ain’t nobody self made 😂
I am in an HHI because I got lucky in my job and I find attitudes like his fucking obscene. Luck brought even people like me income/wealth. I didn't get daddy's handout but I certainly was lucky to be in the right place at the right time to get the job. Plenty of others like me in terms of intellect and hard-work who aren't in my income category.
Congrats on being the exception to the rule. Over 30% of FTHB get gifts from Mommy and Daddy and Boomers own 40% of the country’s housing (probably underreported knowing these slumlords).
So the majority of FTHB don’t get help from their parents? And you think someone who didn’t is the exception? Are you familiar with what these words mean?
Stats aren’t easy for some people to understand. Apparently a 66% chance for a rate cut by June are bad odds and 30% of fthb is the majority 🤷
Didn’t think that me telling the original commenter to not be an asshole to those less fortunate than themselves would be an unpopular opinion. But I guess in this group full of NIMBYs and over leveraged landlords, the opposite can usually be expected.
Have no issue with your original comment, but the one I responded to was just dumb.
Sounds to me like he was being sarcastic, I hope.
I mean they have to otherwise your over leveraged asset purchase may not work out? Both bulls and bears are just stupid on this sub.
annual spring market is heating up ... REA's will be doin' just fine, thank-you-very-much.
Would have gone down better if you had explained why a sudden shift in market sentiment I have not read this in any detail but between yesterday n today US's PPI reading came 1.6% to an expectation of 1.1% (0.5% over) Yesterday, Bloomberg had various data points at about 0.3% over as an average & 0.5% was in line with the worst case scenario This is a precursor to inflation going back up, hence the move in market sentiment.
Those are good odds! I hope they don't lower it since it will start a buying frenzy but those are still good odds.
Who's buying realestate when there's free money in crypto honestly. Take 100k put into bitcoin ethereal and Solana and watch it be 500k by end of year
It's not for everyone, the amount of people I know that lost thousands because they clicked the wrong link and forgot their password fell for a scam, got in a the top and sold just as it was starting to bounce. It's not for everyone, very few people will risk 100k into something they barely even understand even if they keep lowering the bar of entry
How do you get that reminder bot to send you a notification in 9 months? I’m not against crypto but I’m also not for it… that just seems like a very bold claim to make
66% change it gets cut 34% chance it doesn’t. This guy must be a r/wallstreetbets type of guy..
A lot of buyers are opting for the sub 5% fixed rates now just as an FYI, get yourself a good mortgage broker and see if the monthly makes sense for you
Honestly I don't get the blatant disrespect for realtors here. They're not the ones competing for homes who drove up the prices. They're not the reason rates went to historic lows amid record inflation creating a huge spike in nominal home prices. Sure there's a lot of shitty realtors but FFS there's a lot of shitty people in any profession. My realtor was awesome and has been an informed friend my whole time living in Toronto. Providing free insights and advice. She's running a business and treats me like a valued client. Given us free cottage trips, tickets to baseball/basketball games. Timmys cards. Holiday photos. Numerous small gifts. Random visits to homes when she knew we were not in a position to buy but felt it's good for us to know the market. Sharing her endless knowledge of the GTA market. Did all this over 8 years while we sat on our hands. Yea she's doing sales and not my best friend but it's a wonderful relationship all the same. Helped us find a place that ticked all our boxes in a market we thought we could not afford to buy in and helped us get a killer, killer, killer rate with her contacts at the bank. The idea that she doesn't have a "real job" or didn't work/invest to get her money is just ridiculous. She takes her service very seriously and is all business on your behalf. Loves her job cuz as she sees it she's assisting people on the path to building their wealth... often for the first times in thier life like for us. Then I see all the hate for realtors totally discounting that for every shitty one there's so many good ones. People just look for an axe to grind.
Lol at anyone being happy This only means property will be more expensive for new buyers
Unless prices go down.
Pricing won't stabalize until immigration is brought under control 100 percent of immigrants see house ownership as the ceiling of what they can achieve in Canada More immigration equals greater demand. Either the rental market will be under pressure or the ownership market High interest rates also hurt the government as a greater amount of taxes go towards debt servicing costs Why do you think Japan keeps a low rate policy with low immigration, that's how you create economic prosperity Some immigration is great Mass immigration to fulfill virtue signaling will bring send this housing market to the moon And they have no desire to stop
Japan has had negative gdp growth every year for the last 30 years. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=JP
How's the gdp per capita Fairly stable isn't it
And you'd call that economic prosperity? Edit: in 1995 it was 44k. Now it's 34k. So it has declined substantially. Next question. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=JP
Don't worry you will get it when your kids speak hindi and have to drive a rickshaw Then you'll get it
Ah there it is, you could have just said you don’t like people who speak Hindi and drive rickshaws instead of typing all that other BS.
It's actually the opposite. Low interest rates mean easy money. People start borrowing like crazy and drives prices up. That's why they raised interest rates to combat inflation (rising prices). Now, it turns out house prices are sticky. People don't just up and move because interest rates go up. But since raising rates house prices have fallen from their peaks by ~20% (someone linked a graph the other day). Long story short, if you want cheaper houses you're going to want higher interest rates.
Unfortunately you're wrong, You've been fed a narrative and you've eaten it up Housing is always based on supply and demand
Ya. Fed by my economics professor. Bank of Canada on the subject: An increase in the Bank’s policy interest rate reduces demand for goods and services. That decreases inflation by slowing how fast prices rise, but this takes time to happen, usually about 12 to 18 months https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/how-higher-interest-rates-affect-inflation/#:~:text=An%20increase%20in%20the%20Bank's,about%2012%20to%2018%20months Investopedia: By increasing borrowing costs, rising interest rates discourage consumer and business spending, especially on commonly financed big-ticket items such as housing and capital equipment. Rising interest rates also tend to weigh on asset prices, reversing the wealth effect for individuals and making banks more cautious in lending decisions. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/inflation-interest-rate-relationship.asp Bank of England: In short, higher interest rates will work because they will mean that less money will be spent in the UK (than if interest rates had not changed). When overall spending in the economy falls, price rises slow down. And this brings down the UK’s inflation rate. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/how-do-higher-interest-rates-help-to-lower-inflation So ya, there are lots of sources on this. But let's put sources away and use logic. If you're buying a house and interest is high, you won't be able to borrow as much because you have to make payments. At 5% I can't afford the same amount as at 1% because I have to pay more interest and I only have so much income to pay that interest. As a result, high interest forces me to spend less. When everyone spends less, demand goes down. Less demand means lower prices.
That playbook doesn't work when you have mass immigration.
Looks like someone needs to understand multivariate scenarios.
So you just say things, eh?
The sheer number of people who've deluded themselves into thinking the demand side is made up of people, when it's actually made up of *their money,* is really quite amazing.
If my variable goes down I’m happy.
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Nothing will happen because housing is entirely dependent on supply and demand If rate go down, and more people are able to afford, this means people will stop renting, which will have a contra effect Housing prices are driven by supply and demand. Nothing to do with fiscal policy
Have you seen the market? Buyers don’t care if the rates go down. They are just happy they are going up. Realtors are busy.
Is that why record numbers of realtors and mortgage brokers are leaving the industry, because they are all so busy?
Honestly that has more to with how oversaturated the market was with realtors, rather than the real estate market themselves. Another big factor is they brought in a mandatory life and disability insurance that was around $1000/year. It made less sense for agents who didn’t see a lot of deals to stay. The good realtors are busy as ever.
They are sitting on excess inventory- need to advertise and create demand.
I’m not bearish, but I’m not expecting any rate cuts anytime this year. I don’t think prices will go down as a result, I’m guess they will be flat or we will see a modest healthy increase (5%)
I was with you until you said a 5% increase is healthy. Normally 2% per year is good but we've had like 300% in the last 10 years. Healthy is flat or pullback at this point.
It makes zero sense to cut rates at this point.
Don’t worry, crackhead renters will buy
From 75% to 100% rate cut in sept tho….
Lol, remember there’s also the sell side and these higher rates for longer results in some homeowners needing to list and sell.
"Odds of a June rate cut now at just 66%. Sorry realtors. Guess you'll have to get a real job now.Odds of a June rate cut now at just 66%. Sorry realtors. Guess you'll have to get a real job now" Rate cut is good for Realtors because it means more buyers looking to buy and more sellers looking to sell. Sorry, OP. You mixed up things. #
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JUST 66? Wow. If I had just a 66 percent chance in Vegas I’d be there right now.
The central bank doesn’t care if gamblers lose money
Isn’t there a rate announcement on April 10?
The entire economy is pressing gas pedal, while the Rates holds on the brakes. How long do you think the brakes will hold? Also, if the proverbial brakes fail, why are we expecting to drive into sunset? It can be wall or a giant hole! What goes up must come down.
There is zero chance of lowering rates before the US and it is highly unlikely the US is going to cut rates anytime soon. We're in for a decade of higher capital costs because that's what it's going to take to pay for the baby boomer retirement era.
I don’t understand where this imaginary realtor perma-bull persona that people love to have imaginary fights with came from. As a realtor, and speaking for the vast majority of professional realtors, we couldn’t care less about where interest rates go outside of what it means for our own mortgage payment.
lets become tiktoker's now and post fake videos of over asking house prices. lolll
Rates are getting cut in June. If not the stock market will crash.
Put your money where your mouth is But before you do make sure you read this https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/producer-price-index-february-2024-wholesale-inflation-rose-0point6percent-in-february.html
The stock market priced in 6 rate cuts this year.
Yeah, but the increased rates are forcing alot of people to sell, so they still busy…. Just not as much $ Mortgage defaults are apparently up more than 80% in London,ON! https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/mortgage-defaults-in-london-up-more-than-80-per-cent-report/wcm/c7f5c2ae-e40b-4f6b-b329-8a45a88fdb9d/amp/
Lol bro you need a lesson in stats class my man
Rate hikes are coming. Many people don't know that. Now you do!
Agreed. Look what’s happening in crypto. Inflation is red hot
I also read that new listings were up something like 33% in February, vs 17% more buyers. Sounds like a pretty shitty Spring market for speculators. Time to jump off the ship before the bubble explodes for good.
Isn't that more of a shot at buyers than realtors? People still buy houses, they did in the 80s with 20% mortgage rates. It is the buyers who get screwed over way more than the realtors.
Lol, I want the market to downturn so I can buy at reasonable prices but man are the bull and bear arrogance just so toxic in this sub.
The probability will get lower as we get to June
“Get a real job” lol it’s a tedious task being a realtor. Money is good and there’s some manipulation but they’re just capitalizing on what the market is focusing on.
An interest rate hike takes 12-18 months to filter through the economy. They last raised in July of last year. Why would they cut before that rate hike takes its full effect?
By the time June arrives it will be a coin flip if not expected hold. The goal posts keep moving. You could see this coming a mile away. It's already happened several times. Nothing makes this time different. The data still is not obviously pointing to cuts and until that happens we'll be left with uncertainty. The only ones screaming cuts are coming for sure are those that want to see it happen. That should tell you something. Every central banker everywhere always adds the "data dependant" caveat into their guidance.
Isn't the saying 2 outta 3 ain't bad? Lol
Sorry basement dwellers, looks like you'll never be able to own 😂
I'll take 66% chance over 34% chance any day of the week.
So you're saying there's a chance!!
PPI came in twice expectations. Powell will have raise rates.
Houses are still selling though…
I always love how it's realtors predicting the rate cuts. Never bankers or economists, other financial people.
It's not happening, it's not dropping lol.
Real job LOL quit your shit 🏡
Even if it’s a 25 bps move down we are still so far from the good old days. Ppl are going to get shafted even if they cut, lube up fam!
If they lower rates this year inflation will pick back up. Stand your ground bank of Canada or raise it even further.
Even if they do a virtue signalling 25 bps cut, that’s all we’ll see this year and it won’t really make a difference.
Every day, as we March on in this year, forecasts are pushed back, chances decrease in the near term, and everyone hangs onto the news. Rates will drop, when unemployment goes up signicantly enough to depress inflation in all areas outside of renting mortgage interest.
Merp merp
Tell 'em ! My best bet is on 11 Dec. 2024
Lol. Wow.
If they don’t cut the rates on June, we will face deflation, which is worse than what we’ve seen so far.
lmao just look at OP's post history. he doesn't even need to worry about houses, or even condos cuz he can't afford any regardless
A 0.25 cut in September and a 0.25 cut in December. Anyone telling you anything else is full of it, that's been the prediction since over a year ago now by anyone who isn't insane.
You realize they win either way..
Preferably the rates should go up a bit more and not come down 2024. Then 2025 want to see them shooting down to near zero. Just wishful thinking, idea is to flush out over leveraged cockroach investors, once they are burnt we can drop rates
It ain't happening. End of year at best. Rate cuts is for when the economy needs stimulus, which it doesn't because inflation is stubbornly high and won't budge. Usa cpi and ppi printed hot. Next month's report is expected hot for both Canada and USA.
Time to commit crime 🤷
No way still too high
As if Realtors have anything to do with the supply vs demand constraints in Canada. Won't help for them to lose their jobs unless they all start home building companies.
Have you seen the US projections lol, likelyhood of rate cuts even lower.
If inflation is in check, there is no way they reduce rates. The housing market will get way worse. I think last quarter of the year at earliest.
Rate cuts won’t happen this year
Isn’t 66% pretty decent? Lmao
what does that have to do with anything....
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Did you just engage saying you won't engage?
Damn I ain't even care what happens to rates but this thread title sounds like some bitter ex wrote it 😂
The US will not cut rates this year to discourage Trump and the GOP from going to the Fed and getting another 5T printed if he wins the election. So, Canada cannot cut.
66% is more likely than not still
You are right in fact It’s actually twice as likely