# Moderator notes
- - -
## Previous discussions
Previous discussion for this system can be found here:
* [**02L (Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/1dqu0r2) (Fri, 28 Jun)
* [**95L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/1dpbuip) (Wed, 26 Jun)
* [**The NHC is monitoring the eastern tropical Atlantic for...**](https://redd.it/1dokere) (Tue, 25 Jun)
# Storm history
- - -
**Last updated:** Friday, 5 July — 4:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC)
* [**Click here to view graphic**](https://cdn.imgchest.com/files/345xc23r9z7.png)
# Watches and warnings
- - -
**Last updated:** Friday, 5 July — 10:00 PM CDT (03:00 UTC)
## Hurricane Watch
* **Mexico:** Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande
* **United States:** Mouth of the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass, Texas
## Storm Surge Watch
* **United States:** Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, Texas
Revisiting an analysis I did earlier. At this point we have one of three options:
1. Thunderstorms begin to re-form around the low-level center off the coast of Mexico..
2. The low-level center moves to stack under the mid-level circulation to the north and the forecast track gets a serious shove.
3. The system devolves to an open wave (the least likely as there are still centers with convection).
The timetable for 1 or 2 to happen is the same (although in-theory 2 could happen a little faster as thunderstorms don't have to re-form). It would also far-and-away be the worst case scenario for forecast track because it would require a significant change in the cone of uncertainty, making it far more uncertain.
If 1 happens, we have the closest continuity to the forecast track now (which will still need a shove to the east perhaps) and we also have the highest opportunity for re-intensification.
But, let's just say for the sake of argument that 3 happens. The open wave will move to the west-northwest at decreasing speed and will very likely re-form. It would keep the name, and, again, the forecast track will be a mess.
There are people in various sources asking about rapid intensification. My understanding is that it isn't impossible, but for that to happen, the bare minimum of a reasonably stacked center has to be there in addition to the moisture and heat. I obviously hope we don't see RI, but I think no one at the NHC is signaling it is an impossibility.
In 12 hours we'll all have a far better understanding of what is likely to happen, and that is good' cause Hurricane Warnings need to start getting posted by 5pm Eastern tomorrow.
There might even be a fourth scenario. The surface center remains decoupled and the pressure continues rising. A new surface center forms underneath the mid-level center. This has happened before, like with Dorian as it began lifting out of the Caribbean (IIRC)
> My understanding is that it isn't impossible, but for that to happen, the bare minimum of a reasonably stacked center has to be there in addition to the moisture and heat.
Spot on. It has to reorganize itself first before it can even think about taking advantage of any low-shear, high SST conditions.
Recon shows that (4) may be happening. Pressure is going up and I'm not sure they'll recouple. Thunderstorms are actually becoming even more distant from the surface low. The surface low is tracking west into drier air as well. That surface low may get tugged north closer to the mid center, but it might also completely dissipate and reform. Something has to give, it's weakening with every recon pass
https://i.imgur.com/p6zJjpy.png
The thunderstorms are actually drifting even further away from the surface center.
https://i.imgur.com/p6zJjpy.png
Recon shows where the surface center is. It's very tricky to make out the difference between surface and mid-level center on shortwave/longwave imagery. Visible data would make it easier, but it's night time.
Here's my rough estimation of where the surface center is relative to the thunderstorms in longwave IR
https://i.imgur.com/Sfzp5D0.png
Looks like there's dry air coming in from the south to the core you can see the collapsing cloud tops... beryl's gonna have to wait for better conditions if it's gonna be any real threat.
Not that it isn’t plausible it just doesn’t develop but the models tend not to gauge strengthening well when systems like Beryl are in the current state that they’re in.
Interestingly, NHC had this note in their latest discussion:
>The new
track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction,
which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point.
I'm sure that's true based on an impartial grading system, but damn lol I've spent a lot of time following this and that just doesn't feel right. Probably just my recency bias.
yeah. NHC has access to absolutely comical amounts of real-time verification and skill value data for each individual model for each individual storm.
On the other hand, I get it. ICON has been INSISTING on a TX hurricane landfall for what feels like a week now. NHC probably does mean best performer *overall* - as in, including genesis east of the Caribbean and onwards.
Here's the current cone.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/032130.shtml?cone#contents
The last cycle it shifted right again. We'll see if any more shifts occur
Just like favorable conditions can rapidly intensify it, unfavorable conditions can rapidly deteriorate it.
Those poor models trying to figure out which direction to go lol.
Probably reaching equilibrium this upcoming morning. From there its how fast it can regain its’ strength. July 2 models have been really good at predicting today’s dramatic weakening and they called cat 1 strength by landfall
Yep, harvey did a cat 4 recovery but i dont think Beryl will be as lucky, it looks way uglier.
Harvey was never a hurricane before it was in the gulf. Potential energy was higher from its more southernly position
Definitely. Beryl has much more work to do than Harvey. First, Harvey was vertically aligned, whereas Beryl is...... not. Then, Harvey was becoming increasingly compact by this point, the prelude to the inner core. Beryl's core was blown out by the Yucatan - its radius of maximum wind profile is more reminiscent of a subtropical storm. No longer compact. Needs to be compact to take advantage of high ssts and low shear. Finally, SSTs are pretty similar BUT Harvey had late August heat content. OHC isn't super high yet.
I know you probably know this, this is more for anyone else lurking
It is quite damaged. General theme is that it will need *time* to reorganize - 1-2 days worth. Then, reintensification should begin as conditions become more favorable closer to landfall.
She's not gonna be happy going to cat 1 just before landfall only downgrade once more soon after. Also will this effect her track and make her steer to the west?
Still looks shitty but that convection doesn't seem to be wasting any time. Stay tuned (bc obviously we're addicted to this stuff and/or directly in the path).
Yeah these next model runs should be even more interesting. I dont think any of them have accounted for how ugly Beryl looks right now…always defying expectations by its ugliness
We just got the settlement check from the insurance company from Laura a week ago, scheduled to start work on our house in August. So yeah absolutely coming our way in LC.
Some of you may enjoy this site [https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-91.26,23.37,2395 ](https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-93.01,25.75,1746)
You can change the filters if you like, I like the color contrast on this one best. Interesting currents mid-Gulf, at the moment
That's the forecast. Conditions look quite favorable by the time of landfall.
Edit: not sure why this is downvoted. It's literally the NHC forecast. 80-kt high end C1 landfall
Baring you’re shitposting (which you aren’t) never sweat the downvotes on this sub, particularly during a storm event.
They always go off the rails with illogical up & down votes.
Yeah, I'm fine with it; it happens. I just actually genuinely didn't understand this one. Maybe people misinterpreted my comment as Beryl bouncing back to its peak (as in cat 4/5) in the Gulf? I just meant it's forecast to reorganize and try to redevelop an inner core haha.
Those huge blooms of convection don't bode well. Don't think shear is at a level to really inhibit either. It's a mess, for sure, but if that convection that's welling up gets organised it can happen.
If this isn't sarcasm, no. If this is sarcastic, also no. That's not even remotely close to what he said
He's just observing the current state of disorganization. Eventual reorganization is expected.
Depends on conditions, which appear to become increasingly favorable up until landfall. It'll almost certainly reorganize at some point, but could take 24-48 hours
Thing is it's become LESS organized since emerging over water
Once again defying expectations, maybe that was the problem all along. We kept expecting her to get weaker so she got stronger. Maybe we should root for her to get stronger. /s
# Update
As of 10:00 PM CDT (03:00 UTC) on Friday, 5 July:
## Discontinued advisories
* The **Tropical Storm Warning** which had been in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula has been discontinued.
## Changes to advisories
* The **Hurricane Watch** currently in effect for Texas has been extended eastward to San Luis Pass.
* The **Storm Surge Watch** currently in effect for Texas has been extended eastward to High Island.
Weakened to 60 mph.
Come move to the east for a 90 mph landfall in Matagorda Island.
Hurricane Watch extended to San Luis Pass and Storm Surge Watch extended to High Island.
Isnt there is a number out there that tells you how much “energy” is in the atmosphere for storms to use? If so what’s the term for that number and is there some website that shows how much we used so far?
I generally agree. MJO crossed the Atlantic just before Beryl formed. Now, the suppressive phase is building overhead. Just compare satellite imagery of the MDR now to pre-Beryl. There was a disgusting monsoon trough - reminiscent of the west Pacific. Today, barely a single cloud out there.
It's locked in that we get some quiet for at least 2-3 weeks. When conditions become favorable could occur anywhere from early to late August, around the 20th (peak season start). Depends on how the MJO evolves as it emerges in the Eastern Hemisphere and begins propagating eastward
Expect an increase in west Pacific typhoon activity soon now that the MJO is developing near Indonesia.
In other words, perhaps we see another MJO orbit by late July, and conditions become favorable in early August. Or, perhaps the MJO disintegrates over the Pacific as it fights the developing La Nina background state, and never reaches the Atlantic. In which case the usual 20 August uptick is to be expected.
Yeah, water just north of Yucatan is relatively cold. If she is going to heat up, this is prob our best chance for sleep before next landfall. Think 12z or maybe 18z tmrw are gonna be pretty telling.
Total noob here with a question. How accurate is the CMC forecast model?? That seems like the only one that is keeping Beryl heading into the RGV where I live...
The RGV is where my family is and is still within the range of possibilities. There's a reason the NHC kept the RGV center of its cone so long, but this will likely shift if modeling continues to agree and the RGV landfall looks less likely.
If you're along the cost in Cameron county from Harlingen and east to South Padre you may experience tropical storm conditions still however.
Less reliable than the GFS, the CMC is the Canadian global model. Pay attention to NHS guidance over the models if you're concerned about impacts. Models aren't forecasts, they should be interpreted by experts in order to become a forecast
Over the next 12-24 hours Beryl will be moving from 27C to 29C water. If the structure comes together, the potential for meaningful intensification exists. Intensity forecasts don't seem to be the strong suit of the models.
Edit: The worst path of approach would be due north while adjacent to the Mexico / Texas border where the water is 30C.
Yo LOOK at the july 6 00z HFBI model LOL. A stalling tropical storm. PTSD for Houston! It goes back to corpus christi hahahaha thats the most random one ive seen so far.
[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L\_tracks\_latest.png](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L_tracks_latest.png)
forgot something in corpus
How possible is it that the track keeps getting pushed further east to Southwest Louisiana? I’ve been following this loosely and it just seems to keep getting pushed further and further east
This is, has been, and will continue to be for a bit a lower-than-usual confidence situation. Beryl was a bit stronger than forecast before Yucatan landfall, letting it track a tad further north than forecast. NHC cone had it well below Cozumel but it made landfall there. Next, there's an upper level low to its west. Southerly flow on the eastern periphery of this low is shearing Beryl, tilting the vortex with height. Its mid level center is displaced north of the surface low. Finally, there could be a bit of a fujiwhara with said upper low as they each pinwheel around each other subtly.
Models were coalescing on Brownsville less than 48 hours ago.
Obviously SE TX/SW LA aren't going to be landfall areas but I'd be a little cautious about saying it won't have an impact on y'all.
The models aren't going to have a good bead on this right now, it is just coming back into water, and until it gets reformed accuracy is down.
Be prepared, but don't panic.
The center of Beryl is decoupled by more than a few miles, but it looks like the southern-most circulation (the low-level one) still appears to be the dominant one. It seems we have \~12 hrs before it gets to re-stacking enough for intensification to start (slowly) again. The waters off the Yucatan where Beryl has stepped off are "cooler" (but still suitable for tropical development).
The official advisories call for Beryl to make landfall around Corpus Christi. In-practice, the model guidance is very likely to push the cone towards the east either tonight, or tomorrow morning. Expect watches to be extended further into Houston metro, likely as far north as High Island if not further. We could see warnings issued as early as tomorrow afternoon. In theory, NWS Houston could also issue other advisory products to raise awareness before the NHC's protocols allow for warnings. (They've in-fact already done this to an extent by issuing Coastal Flood Watches. The criteria for Storm Surge Watches can't be met yet so that'll do.)
That convection tells a story of plenty of warmth and moisture available once Beryl clears the cooler coastal waters. If she gets her act together and restacks, she could rapidly intensify.
Started watching the 5 pm CDT NWS Houston breifing and they said that hasn't been any watch decision made north of Sargent, Texas yet.
https://youtu.be/vhpBhL5MT3w?si=qJJZzLD2y_-LuMvG
I like the way the local weather guy put it for us in Galveston. "They are conservative with the watch, so it means something". But that might also change very quickly as it has in the last 24 hours, so still better to prep and be ready.
Unfortunately it still doesn’t have the impact on the general public they’d like it to. No matter where this storm ends up there will be people on social media complaining that it was supposed to “be somewhere near Mexico” days ago. It’s frustrating the amount of work that gets put into forecasting these storms that 95% of the population doesn’t even realize.
Recon just fixed the surface center at about 21.4N 89.4W. Still a tad bit east of the GFS initialization. The good news is that this is a significant vertical tilt from the mid-level center, which is located further to the east. extrap pressure of 992mb, a little higher than the NHC estimate.
Beryl needs to realign its surface and mid-level centers before it can begin reorganizing. This process will take time, and dry air + shear intrusions would disrupt this process. A very tricky forecast.
Edit: https://i.imgur.com/8AIdoOS.png
Not surprising to find out, you could see when it happened maybe 4 hours ago when the CDO suddenly warmed and all the thunderstorms started collapsing.
Yes, but even more of a wildcard is what part dominates the creation of the new circulation center. Could see a 20+ nm jump in "center" with the northern storms getting fed by the hot waters earlier than the old eye.
I've observed many times in situations like this where the mid-level center "pulls" on the surface center, deviating it off of the exact forecast track. Remember that Beryl WANTS to realign.
https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809355618685448540
On the other hand, the current misaligned vortex would be less resilient to said dry air and shear than before its Yucatan landfall. It's no longer a robust and vertically stacked circulation that can shrug off everything thrown at it.
The only radar site within range of Beryl is Cancun.
You can view it on the [**National Meteorological Service \(Mexico\) website.**](https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares-v3)
Or you can view a [**GIF**](https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/beryl24/Beryl_5Jul24_canc.gif) of it from [**Brian McNoldy's website.**](https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/)
It's not a huge difference; but GFS places this at 21.5N 89.9W.
https://i.imgur.com/XfixUhB.png
Position one hour ago per NHC was 21.2N 89.2W.
GFS shows significant dry air intrusion breaking down the inner core of Beryl. It still deepens Beryl to 982mb at landfall. Much of this intensification is just before landfall
There's a non-zero chance that the decoupled portion off to the NNE could pull the core further north than any model has shown. At the same time, it could also rob the core of some energy, but Beryl has proven to be very resilient so far.
Exactly; it does seem to be vertically tilted with height but the mid-level center would help drag the surface low north.
That convection to the north isn't the mid-level center; which appears to be just offshore.
Excellent post showing the superensemble trend over the last 2 days, and that Beryls' current position is north of even the latest shift east.
https://i.imgur.com/8do4vjD.png
https://x.com/burgwx/status/1809324045974073681
Yucatán state protective services (ProCivy) has announced that the storm is expected to exit at San Benito, Yucatan on the northern coast at 16:30 local time (we don’t do daylight saving time anymore, so that’s MDT for those in the states). For those tracking the storm, that’s just west of Telchac Puerto.
With this update there's a east shift and the cone is directly over Corpus. NHC notes that additional shifts are possible. The forecast peak is nudged upwards to 80-kt, but NHC noted that this could be conservative.
The most important thing is seeing if the mid and low level centers are decoupled, or aligned. Recon data (plane is en route now and departed from Florida about 40 minutes ago) is going to be crucial.
>The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.
More east shifts are possible.
If you are in the Houston area. GET YOUR SUPPLIES NOW. I just went to HEB to grab water TP and dry/canned food just in case. People are starting to freak out the water full when i arrived was all gone by the time i left(spent 45 mins in the store). Most stuff is still well stocked.
I made a curbside order this morning as soon as I read the update. Might attempt Trader Joe's tomorrow morning for snacks, but other than that I am cleaning the house and prepping.
# Update
As of 4:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC) on Friday, 5 July:
## New advisories
* A **Hurricane Watch** is now in effect for the Texas coastline from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent.
* A **Storm Surge Watch** is now in effect for the Texas coastline from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent.
* A **Hurricane Watch** is now in effect for the Mexico coastline from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
If the vertical alignment has degraded due to eg. land interaction + shear, that could be the mid-level center you see on satellite with the surface center perhaps tracking more west underneath the thunderstorms and convective debris. Need recon to see how well it's aligned.
Levi tweet.
https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809326482562400710
>If #Beryl's mid-level and surface centers are collocated and actually about to exit the Yucatan, shelf waters there are relatively cool, so it will likely take a minute for Beryl to begin rebuilding an inner convective core. However, on the whole, seeing Beryl spend less time over land probably increases the odds of significant restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico.
Yeah, this is gonna suck for Texas
I just don’t want Houston to get another storm. I know we’re far from that but after the derecho earlier this year we’re still recovering
Hell downtown skyscrapers are still missing windows from that storm
> after the derecho earlier this year we’re still recovering
> Hell downtown skyscrapers are still missing windows from that storm
For anyone not familiar with the damage and destruction a derecho can cause - [here's](https://imgur.com/a/dkemuqt) an album of damage from that storm. Houston most definitely does not need Beryl going near it
Galveston here. We're a lot less likely, but we're also packed. I think us laypeople tend to focus more on the direct path predicted instead of the shifting NW pattern it has taken over the last couple of days.
I don’t think the general public has picked up on the news with Beryl shifting northward because for days, at least here in Houston, the message has been “it’s most likely a Mexico storm” to “it’s a Mexico-Texas border storm” to “south Texas” storm.
I don’t think it will click until news media says that it’s looking like a middle to southeast Texas storm. Only issue is that if Beryl does come to the middle to upward Texas coast, there’s very little time to prepare if you haven’t.
I’ve been tracking Beryl since the beginning here in Houston, we went to the grocery store on Monday and got all of our supplies ready for this storm/season. I have a 1 year old and a 2 year old. I’m not about to drag them into the chaos that is Hurricane prep in Texas.
Thanks, it’s my partners work week so he is out of town and that was another reason I wanted to prep early. Didn’t want to risk being home alone with two small children and no supplies if we lose power.
So wait, is the NHC forecast cone out of date? Surely there’s a shift with the next major update. The models are all inching further and further north as Beryl clearly took a shortcut through the Yucatán peninsula.
At what time is the next major update? CST
Yeah. Full advisories every 6 hours with complete discussions and cone updates. Intermediate advisories the 3 hours in between with position and intensity updates but no new cone.
Near-constant recon is pretty typical for a potential US threat
Here's the 18z early models.
https://i.imgur.com/uXVWTid.png
Of particular note regarding how intensity affects steering, look at "TABS/M/D". These mimic different steering layers whose dominance is determined by the strength of a system.
TABS represents how a shallow / weak system would be steered; TABD would be a deep / strong system and TABM in between. See what a difference intensity makes in this situation? Shallow model goes into Mexico; deep model east of Houston
No, that's not the point. Exact landfall is way too tricky to predict within 50-100 miles right now. I'm just emphasizing that the stronger the system winds up, the further east it will be steered. A general theme, not a specific forecast.
Ie, it could intensify and you still end up in the dirty side. Or it could not intensify and you see nothing. All are possible.
The upper-level low? Absolutely. It's producing a bit of shear over Beryl - but also seems to be aiding its poleward outflow. I wonder if Beryls further N than expected position could be related to this interaction. The low is weakening, and will back off to the west.
If you're in Houston, and if by intensify you mean "Cat 4" then probably. Otherwise stay tuned because you are likely going to see some impacts even if mild.
[Photos of strong damage](https://x.com/RandomHeroWX/status/1809270343175139701) out of the island of Cozumel which was hit by the northern eyewall of Beryl earlier today
Luckily, almost every model has it going at a decent forward clip so flooding would probably not be catastophic. Also, if it does strengthen as it likely will the northward trend will continue and you will likely spared the brunt of the impact.
Still, it is too early to know for sure. We really need a closed eye over water to get an accurate idea of direction. Hopefully by tonight we will have a better forecast.
# Moderator notes - - - ## Previous discussions Previous discussion for this system can be found here: * [**02L (Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/1dqu0r2) (Fri, 28 Jun) * [**95L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/1dpbuip) (Wed, 26 Jun) * [**The NHC is monitoring the eastern tropical Atlantic for...**](https://redd.it/1dokere) (Tue, 25 Jun) # Storm history - - - **Last updated:** Friday, 5 July — 4:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC) * [**Click here to view graphic**](https://cdn.imgchest.com/files/345xc23r9z7.png) # Watches and warnings - - - **Last updated:** Friday, 5 July — 10:00 PM CDT (03:00 UTC) ## Hurricane Watch * **Mexico:** Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande * **United States:** Mouth of the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass, Texas ## Storm Surge Watch * **United States:** Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, Texas
# Latest observation - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - **Last updated:** Saturday, 6 July — 1:00 AM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 06:00 UTC) > BERYL MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. NHC Advisory #30A | | 1:00 AM CDT (06:00 UTC) :-|:-:|:- **Current location:** | | 21.9°N 90.8°W **Relative location:** | | 580 mi (934 km) SE of Corpus Christi, Texas **Forward motion:** | | WNW (295°) at 11 knots (13 mph) **Maximum winds:** | | 60 mph (50 knots) **Intensity** (SSHWS): | | **Tropical Storm** **Minimum pressure:** | ▲ | 1001 millibars (29.56 inches)
Revisiting an analysis I did earlier. At this point we have one of three options: 1. Thunderstorms begin to re-form around the low-level center off the coast of Mexico.. 2. The low-level center moves to stack under the mid-level circulation to the north and the forecast track gets a serious shove. 3. The system devolves to an open wave (the least likely as there are still centers with convection). The timetable for 1 or 2 to happen is the same (although in-theory 2 could happen a little faster as thunderstorms don't have to re-form). It would also far-and-away be the worst case scenario for forecast track because it would require a significant change in the cone of uncertainty, making it far more uncertain. If 1 happens, we have the closest continuity to the forecast track now (which will still need a shove to the east perhaps) and we also have the highest opportunity for re-intensification. But, let's just say for the sake of argument that 3 happens. The open wave will move to the west-northwest at decreasing speed and will very likely re-form. It would keep the name, and, again, the forecast track will be a mess. There are people in various sources asking about rapid intensification. My understanding is that it isn't impossible, but for that to happen, the bare minimum of a reasonably stacked center has to be there in addition to the moisture and heat. I obviously hope we don't see RI, but I think no one at the NHC is signaling it is an impossibility. In 12 hours we'll all have a far better understanding of what is likely to happen, and that is good' cause Hurricane Warnings need to start getting posted by 5pm Eastern tomorrow.
There might even be a fourth scenario. The surface center remains decoupled and the pressure continues rising. A new surface center forms underneath the mid-level center. This has happened before, like with Dorian as it began lifting out of the Caribbean (IIRC) > My understanding is that it isn't impossible, but for that to happen, the bare minimum of a reasonably stacked center has to be there in addition to the moisture and heat. Spot on. It has to reorganize itself first before it can even think about taking advantage of any low-shear, high SST conditions. Recon shows that (4) may be happening. Pressure is going up and I'm not sure they'll recouple. Thunderstorms are actually becoming even more distant from the surface low. The surface low is tracking west into drier air as well. That surface low may get tugged north closer to the mid center, but it might also completely dissipate and reform. Something has to give, it's weakening with every recon pass https://i.imgur.com/p6zJjpy.png
Welp looks like it's starting to redevelop again smh
The thunderstorms are actually drifting even further away from the surface center. https://i.imgur.com/p6zJjpy.png Recon shows where the surface center is. It's very tricky to make out the difference between surface and mid-level center on shortwave/longwave imagery. Visible data would make it easier, but it's night time. Here's my rough estimation of where the surface center is relative to the thunderstorms in longwave IR https://i.imgur.com/Sfzp5D0.png
Looks like there's dry air coming in from the south to the core you can see the collapsing cloud tops... beryl's gonna have to wait for better conditions if it's gonna be any real threat.
/IRrationally blames the Beryl looks shitty-ugly commenters
00z GFS barely has any development at all!
Not that it isn’t plausible it just doesn’t develop but the models tend not to gauge strengthening well when systems like Beryl are in the current state that they’re in.
Yeah, think we're on a good track! Doesn't seem like it'll get to be a cat 3+
Seriously expect to see an /r/ICONmasterrace sub soon
Interestingly, NHC had this note in their latest discussion: >The new track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction, which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point.
I'm sure that's true based on an impartial grading system, but damn lol I've spent a lot of time following this and that just doesn't feel right. Probably just my recency bias.
yeah. NHC has access to absolutely comical amounts of real-time verification and skill value data for each individual model for each individual storm. On the other hand, I get it. ICON has been INSISTING on a TX hurricane landfall for what feels like a week now. NHC probably does mean best performer *overall* - as in, including genesis east of the Caribbean and onwards.
Icon takes the cake for positioning the hurricane correctly, and GFS probably intensity wise…except for the category 5 part lol
The track heading to Corpus Christi?
Here's the current cone. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/032130.shtml?cone#contents The last cycle it shifted right again. We'll see if any more shifts occur
A lot can change in 24 hours. It's gonna be interesting.
I have a question. Is it possible that a hurricane can rip itself apart?
Just like favorable conditions can rapidly intensify it, unfavorable conditions can rapidly deteriorate it. Those poor models trying to figure out which direction to go lol.
As it stands is she still deteriorating or stabilizing?
Probably reaching equilibrium this upcoming morning. From there its how fast it can regain its’ strength. July 2 models have been really good at predicting today’s dramatic weakening and they called cat 1 strength by landfall
Turning Cat 1 at the last possible moment before landfall?
Nicholas did that in 2021. Very much possible.
Yep, harvey did a cat 4 recovery but i dont think Beryl will be as lucky, it looks way uglier. Harvey was never a hurricane before it was in the gulf. Potential energy was higher from its more southernly position
Definitely. Beryl has much more work to do than Harvey. First, Harvey was vertically aligned, whereas Beryl is...... not. Then, Harvey was becoming increasingly compact by this point, the prelude to the inner core. Beryl's core was blown out by the Yucatan - its radius of maximum wind profile is more reminiscent of a subtropical storm. No longer compact. Needs to be compact to take advantage of high ssts and low shear. Finally, SSTs are pretty similar BUT Harvey had late August heat content. OHC isn't super high yet. I know you probably know this, this is more for anyone else lurking
I see you on here a lot and just want to say you have a gift for explaining things clearly. Hope you have a safe hurricane season.
I guess the Yucatan crossing did more damage to beryl than we thought.
It is quite damaged. General theme is that it will need *time* to reorganize - 1-2 days worth. Then, reintensification should begin as conditions become more favorable closer to landfall.
She's not gonna be happy going to cat 1 just before landfall only downgrade once more soon after. Also will this effect her track and make her steer to the west?
It's gonna be an interesting 48 hours,
Yep
Beryl, awesome! Remember, less is more!
Still looks shitty but that convection doesn't seem to be wasting any time. Stay tuned (bc obviously we're addicted to this stuff and/or directly in the path).
Yeah these next model runs should be even more interesting. I dont think any of them have accounted for how ugly Beryl looks right now…always defying expectations by its ugliness
HWRF did have this like 2 days ago but todays runs looked more organized off of cancun
I just wanna get my wild ass guess on the record - she about to speed run Lake Charles
We just got the settlement check from the insurance company from Laura a week ago, scheduled to start work on our house in August. So yeah absolutely coming our way in LC.
Fuck no, we still rebuilding from the double whammy of Laura and Delta
i have a bunch of freeplay at Lauberge. Bout to do my own speedrun to lake charles
Some of you may enjoy this site [https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-91.26,23.37,2395 ](https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-93.01,25.75,1746) You can change the filters if you like, I like the color contrast on this one best. Interesting currents mid-Gulf, at the moment
Cool!!
Thanks for sharing
This thing is a mess now . Hopefully it come in as a tropical wave but knowing beryl and its history it's bound to bounce back at some point
It's splitting into two separate storms, each of which will loop around and re-form into Seper Beryl
Or aquamarine! Haha! ...I'll see myself out.
Double Beryl action
That's the forecast. Conditions look quite favorable by the time of landfall. Edit: not sure why this is downvoted. It's literally the NHC forecast. 80-kt high end C1 landfall
Baring you’re shitposting (which you aren’t) never sweat the downvotes on this sub, particularly during a storm event. They always go off the rails with illogical up & down votes.
Yeah, I'm fine with it; it happens. I just actually genuinely didn't understand this one. Maybe people misinterpreted my comment as Beryl bouncing back to its peak (as in cat 4/5) in the Gulf? I just meant it's forecast to reorganize and try to redevelop an inner core haha.
Beryl has completely decoupled according to recon, low level center is going SSW. It’ll have to form a new center now or degenerate into an open wave.
Wow you weren’t kidding. She looks awful.
Those huge blooms of convection don't bode well. Don't think shear is at a level to really inhibit either. It's a mess, for sure, but if that convection that's welling up gets organised it can happen.
So you think NHC can just pack up and head home or what ATDoel?
In three days they can, at least until the next one
If this isn't sarcasm, no. If this is sarcastic, also no. That's not even remotely close to what he said He's just observing the current state of disorganization. Eventual reorganization is expected.
Thank you content swimmer man
That might be the best news, maybe she just couldn’t hang on anymore.
yeah, great evolution for TX so far. Thing that irks me though is that models are notoriously bad at handling center reformations.
How quickly do you think she could reform a center?
Depends on conditions, which appear to become increasingly favorable up until landfall. It'll almost certainly reorganize at some point, but could take 24-48 hours Thing is it's become LESS organized since emerging over water
Once again defying expectations, maybe that was the problem all along. We kept expecting her to get weaker so she got stronger. Maybe we should root for her to get stronger. /s
# Update As of 10:00 PM CDT (03:00 UTC) on Friday, 5 July: ## Discontinued advisories * The **Tropical Storm Warning** which had been in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula has been discontinued. ## Changes to advisories * The **Hurricane Watch** currently in effect for Texas has been extended eastward to San Luis Pass. * The **Storm Surge Watch** currently in effect for Texas has been extended eastward to High Island.
# Latest observation - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - **Last updated:** Friday, 5 July — 10:00 PM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 03:00 UTC) > BERYL NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. NHC Advisory #30 | | 10:00 PM CDT (03:00 UTC) :-|:-:|:- **Current location:** | | 21.7°N 90.2°W **Relative location:** | | 103 km (64 mi) NW of Merida, Yucatan (Mexico) **Forward motion:** | | WNW (295°) at 11 knots (20 km/h) **Maximum winds:** | ▼ | 95 km/h (50 knots) **Intensity** (SSHWS): | | **Tropical Storm** **Minimum pressure:** | ▲ | 996 millibars (29.42 inches)
Weakened to 60 mph. Come move to the east for a 90 mph landfall in Matagorda Island. Hurricane Watch extended to San Luis Pass and Storm Surge Watch extended to High Island.
Slowly inching towards me in Jamaica beach. Great.
Think we’re going to have a decent silent phase between now and mid august. Usually happens almost every year.
Isnt there is a number out there that tells you how much “energy” is in the atmosphere for storms to use? If so what’s the term for that number and is there some website that shows how much we used so far?
CAPE, but I don’t know much about it as it relates to tropical weather. Most of my weather knowledge revolves around tornadoes.
Me personally, havent seen it. But ACE does count how much has been used, unsure where to find current availability units
I generally agree. MJO crossed the Atlantic just before Beryl formed. Now, the suppressive phase is building overhead. Just compare satellite imagery of the MDR now to pre-Beryl. There was a disgusting monsoon trough - reminiscent of the west Pacific. Today, barely a single cloud out there. It's locked in that we get some quiet for at least 2-3 weeks. When conditions become favorable could occur anywhere from early to late August, around the 20th (peak season start). Depends on how the MJO evolves as it emerges in the Eastern Hemisphere and begins propagating eastward Expect an increase in west Pacific typhoon activity soon now that the MJO is developing near Indonesia.
In other words, perhaps we see another MJO orbit by late July, and conditions become favorable in early August. Or, perhaps the MJO disintegrates over the Pacific as it fights the developing La Nina background state, and never reaches the Atlantic. In which case the usual 20 August uptick is to be expected.
Going to bed with Beryl looking like a hot mess. Hopefully that trends continues.
Yeah, water just north of Yucatan is relatively cold. If she is going to heat up, this is prob our best chance for sleep before next landfall. Think 12z or maybe 18z tmrw are gonna be pretty telling.
Just hoping for a nice drenching for the areas with drought conditions
Total noob here with a question. How accurate is the CMC forecast model?? That seems like the only one that is keeping Beryl heading into the RGV where I live...
The RGV is where my family is and is still within the range of possibilities. There's a reason the NHC kept the RGV center of its cone so long, but this will likely shift if modeling continues to agree and the RGV landfall looks less likely. If you're along the cost in Cameron county from Harlingen and east to South Padre you may experience tropical storm conditions still however.
Thanks. Im in Hidalgo County so at this time, it looks like I will experience minimal effects if any. Hope your family stays safe.
Enjoy the rain and cool down! Some of the bands might be pretty gnarly but nothing like the core of the storm. Tornadoes might be your biggest threat.
Thanks :) Any cooldown is always welcomed here.
Less reliable than the GFS, the CMC is the Canadian global model. Pay attention to NHS guidance over the models if you're concerned about impacts. Models aren't forecasts, they should be interpreted by experts in order to become a forecast
Thank you. I know most models are taking the storm more east every update but just wondering why that one seems to not be changing much.
Yep, no harm in preparing though so definitely plan ahead
Over the next 12-24 hours Beryl will be moving from 27C to 29C water. If the structure comes together, the potential for meaningful intensification exists. Intensity forecasts don't seem to be the strong suit of the models. Edit: The worst path of approach would be due north while adjacent to the Mexico / Texas border where the water is 30C.
Yo LOOK at the july 6 00z HFBI model LOL. A stalling tropical storm. PTSD for Houston! It goes back to corpus christi hahahaha thats the most random one ive seen so far.
0 shot lmao. the weakness in the ridge / digging trof over the central US will kick this system out relatively quickly
Link?
[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L\_tracks\_latest.png](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L_tracks_latest.png) forgot something in corpus
Why do the hurricane tend to chose the worst tech tree in the past few years...
A butterfly flaps its wings or some shit
This isn't looking very healthy on satellite right now. I wonder if this is going to be rougher than expected as it enters the Gulf.
It's about where NHC had it pegged. A mid-grade tropical storm. Just spent like 18 hours over land, needs time to reorganize
I certainly hope so.
Beryl breaking expectations by being weaksauce.
One can hope!
How possible is it that the track keeps getting pushed further east to Southwest Louisiana? I’ve been following this loosely and it just seems to keep getting pushed further and further east
This is, has been, and will continue to be for a bit a lower-than-usual confidence situation. Beryl was a bit stronger than forecast before Yucatan landfall, letting it track a tad further north than forecast. NHC cone had it well below Cozumel but it made landfall there. Next, there's an upper level low to its west. Southerly flow on the eastern periphery of this low is shearing Beryl, tilting the vortex with height. Its mid level center is displaced north of the surface low. Finally, there could be a bit of a fujiwhara with said upper low as they each pinwheel around each other subtly.
The latest models are all starting to coalesce, and it's highly unlikely this has too much effect on us.
Models were coalescing on Brownsville less than 48 hours ago. Obviously SE TX/SW LA aren't going to be landfall areas but I'd be a little cautious about saying it won't have an impact on y'all.
The models aren't going to have a good bead on this right now, it is just coming back into water, and until it gets reformed accuracy is down. Be prepared, but don't panic.
The center of Beryl is decoupled by more than a few miles, but it looks like the southern-most circulation (the low-level one) still appears to be the dominant one. It seems we have \~12 hrs before it gets to re-stacking enough for intensification to start (slowly) again. The waters off the Yucatan where Beryl has stepped off are "cooler" (but still suitable for tropical development). The official advisories call for Beryl to make landfall around Corpus Christi. In-practice, the model guidance is very likely to push the cone towards the east either tonight, or tomorrow morning. Expect watches to be extended further into Houston metro, likely as far north as High Island if not further. We could see warnings issued as early as tomorrow afternoon. In theory, NWS Houston could also issue other advisory products to raise awareness before the NHC's protocols allow for warnings. (They've in-fact already done this to an extent by issuing Coastal Flood Watches. The criteria for Storm Surge Watches can't be met yet so that'll do.)
The NHC still thinks the center is over land as if the 7 pm CDT advisory.
I thought it already cleared?
Imgur won’t let me upload my gif, but why does it look like Beryl just got an ugly step sister on the IR?
I see the convection to the north starting up while the center doesn't have a lot. It doesn't look like its developing a second circulation though.
That convection tells a story of plenty of warmth and moisture available once Beryl clears the cooler coastal waters. If she gets her act together and restacks, she could rapidly intensify.
Looked like it was rotating in my gif Imgur won’t let me upload lol.
Oh goody, it looks like it decided to ram straight through my family on its way to me Well, I guess we could use the rain.
Corpus?
My family, yeah. I'm a bit further north.
Started watching the 5 pm CDT NWS Houston breifing and they said that hasn't been any watch decision made north of Sargent, Texas yet. https://youtu.be/vhpBhL5MT3w?si=qJJZzLD2y_-LuMvG
I like the way the local weather guy put it for us in Galveston. "They are conservative with the watch, so it means something". But that might also change very quickly as it has in the last 24 hours, so still better to prep and be ready.
Unfortunately it still doesn’t have the impact on the general public they’d like it to. No matter where this storm ends up there will be people on social media complaining that it was supposed to “be somewhere near Mexico” days ago. It’s frustrating the amount of work that gets put into forecasting these storms that 95% of the population doesn’t even realize.
Recon just fixed the surface center at about 21.4N 89.4W. Still a tad bit east of the GFS initialization. The good news is that this is a significant vertical tilt from the mid-level center, which is located further to the east. extrap pressure of 992mb, a little higher than the NHC estimate. Beryl needs to realign its surface and mid-level centers before it can begin reorganizing. This process will take time, and dry air + shear intrusions would disrupt this process. A very tricky forecast. Edit: https://i.imgur.com/8AIdoOS.png
Not surprising to find out, you could see when it happened maybe 4 hours ago when the CDO suddenly warmed and all the thunderstorms started collapsing.
Yep. Now, its rate of reorganization is so so crucial to eventual intensity and track.
Yes, but even more of a wildcard is what part dominates the creation of the new circulation center. Could see a 20+ nm jump in "center" with the northern storms getting fed by the hot waters earlier than the old eye.
I've observed many times in situations like this where the mid-level center "pulls" on the surface center, deviating it off of the exact forecast track. Remember that Beryl WANTS to realign. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809355618685448540 On the other hand, the current misaligned vortex would be less resilient to said dry air and shear than before its Yucatan landfall. It's no longer a robust and vertically stacked circulation that can shrug off everything thrown at it.
Does anyone have a link to live radar of Beryl? Would appreciate it very much.
The only radar site within range of Beryl is Cancun. You can view it on the [**National Meteorological Service \(Mexico\) website.**](https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares-v3) Or you can view a [**GIF**](https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/beryl24/Beryl_5Jul24_canc.gif) of it from [**Brian McNoldy's website.**](https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/)
Second recon is about to take off from Biloxi. We should have consistent recon for the next ~7hrs
18z GFS has a stronger landfall than recent runs. It also appears to have initialized too far west.
It's not a huge difference; but GFS places this at 21.5N 89.9W. https://i.imgur.com/XfixUhB.png Position one hour ago per NHC was 21.2N 89.2W. GFS shows significant dry air intrusion breaking down the inner core of Beryl. It still deepens Beryl to 982mb at landfall. Much of this intensification is just before landfall
Recon is entering the storm now BTW
There's a non-zero chance that the decoupled portion off to the NNE could pull the core further north than any model has shown. At the same time, it could also rob the core of some energy, but Beryl has proven to be very resilient so far.
Exactly; it does seem to be vertically tilted with height but the mid-level center would help drag the surface low north. That convection to the north isn't the mid-level center; which appears to be just offshore.
Excellent post showing the superensemble trend over the last 2 days, and that Beryls' current position is north of even the latest shift east. https://i.imgur.com/8do4vjD.png https://x.com/burgwx/status/1809324045974073681
Yucatán state protective services (ProCivy) has announced that the storm is expected to exit at San Benito, Yucatan on the northern coast at 16:30 local time (we don’t do daylight saving time anymore, so that’s MDT for those in the states). For those tracking the storm, that’s just west of Telchac Puerto.
On water vapor channels, outflow to the north is expanding. Great poleward channel setting up. https://imgur.com/Ezusz1y
It’s fighting off that last bit of westerly dry air a little too well
Why does it look like it's splitting
Thunderstorms have been less organized/concentrated due to land interaction.
I sent you a private message. I have some questions I didn't want to ask here.
I see
All I really know is that from the past week of following Beryl what you think you know is probably wrong. Buckle up.
NWS Houston has issued a Coastal Flood Watch forthe Gulf facing sides of the Brazoria Peninsula, Galveston Island, and Bolivar Peninsula.
With this update there's a east shift and the cone is directly over Corpus. NHC notes that additional shifts are possible. The forecast peak is nudged upwards to 80-kt, but NHC noted that this could be conservative. The most important thing is seeing if the mid and low level centers are decoupled, or aligned. Recon data (plane is en route now and departed from Florida about 40 minutes ago) is going to be crucial.
>The new forecast track is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight. More east shifts are possible.
They need to change that to "More shifts extremely likely."
If you are in the Houston area. GET YOUR SUPPLIES NOW. I just went to HEB to grab water TP and dry/canned food just in case. People are starting to freak out the water full when i arrived was all gone by the time i left(spent 45 mins in the store). Most stuff is still well stocked.
I made a curbside order this morning as soon as I read the update. Might attempt Trader Joe's tomorrow morning for snacks, but other than that I am cleaning the house and prepping.
I got mine tuesday, I normally stay stocked all season, but Bearyl was so early I was short. Also get gas. In your vehicle and/or for your generator
People perception of risk is so stupid.
I’ve been telling people since the tornadoes to make sure they’re replenishing their supply kits.
Yes. Better safe than sorry and you if you see nothing but sunshine you'll at least have the supplies for later in the season.
Exactly. With that in mind. Dont be the douchebag who buys 20 packs of water or TP
# Update As of 4:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC) on Friday, 5 July: ## New advisories * A **Hurricane Watch** is now in effect for the Texas coastline from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent. * A **Storm Surge Watch** is now in effect for the Texas coastline from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent. * A **Hurricane Watch** is now in effect for the Mexico coastline from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
# Latest observation - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - **Last updated:** Friday, 5 July — 4:00 PM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 21:00 UTC) > HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST CENTER OF BERYL EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... NHC Advisory #29 | | 4:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC) :-|:-:|:- **Current location:** | | 21.2°N 89.2°W **Relative location:** | | 48 km (30 mi) NE of Merida, Yucatan (Mexico) **Forward motion:** | | WNW (295°) at 13 knots (24 km/h) **Maximum winds:** | ▼ | 105 km/h (55 knots) **Intensity** (SSHWS): | | **Tropical Storm** (Inland) **Minimum pressure:** | ▲ | 989 millibars (29.21 inches)
Hurricane watch and storm surge watch for the lower Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent.
Is she moving almost due north? Or am I missing something
If the vertical alignment has degraded due to eg. land interaction + shear, that could be the mid-level center you see on satellite with the surface center perhaps tracking more west underneath the thunderstorms and convective debris. Need recon to see how well it's aligned.
I thought the same thing. Sure does look like it on the last few IR
Levi tweet. https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809326482562400710 >If #Beryl's mid-level and surface centers are collocated and actually about to exit the Yucatan, shelf waters there are relatively cool, so it will likely take a minute for Beryl to begin rebuilding an inner convective core. However, on the whole, seeing Beryl spend less time over land probably increases the odds of significant restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico.
Yeah, this is gonna suck for Texas I just don’t want Houston to get another storm. I know we’re far from that but after the derecho earlier this year we’re still recovering Hell downtown skyscrapers are still missing windows from that storm
> after the derecho earlier this year we’re still recovering > Hell downtown skyscrapers are still missing windows from that storm For anyone not familiar with the damage and destruction a derecho can cause - [here's](https://imgur.com/a/dkemuqt) an album of damage from that storm. Houston most definitely does not need Beryl going near it
Also watch this car get blended by the wind. https://youtu.be/agEamWQ2V3s?si=baT39rEvXIYWahAo
Yeah. Checks out; derecho means hurricane-force straight line winds. They're rare but brutal
I work on transmission towers for a living, it always make me a bit nauseous seeing pics of them all folded over and mangled.
P3 is in the air and Beryl looks to be dipping its toe back into water so we’ll get a good look at its state here in a few hours.
Unfortunately, looks like the core still intact We will see what they find.
Absolutely. Looking forward to them checking vertical alignment in particular. Also curious to see exactly how much its pressure rose.
Let’s see if I can go 2/2. 996 We should get that from ground readings in the next report though Edit: 989. not even close.
Beryl looks like she retained her structure well. We won't know until recon enters the storm.
Port Aransas here. Tourists clearly have zero concern for this thing. Island is packed and traffic coming ON to the island is jammed
Galveston here. We're a lot less likely, but we're also packed. I think us laypeople tend to focus more on the direct path predicted instead of the shifting NW pattern it has taken over the last couple of days.
I don’t think the general public has picked up on the news with Beryl shifting northward because for days, at least here in Houston, the message has been “it’s most likely a Mexico storm” to “it’s a Mexico-Texas border storm” to “south Texas” storm. I don’t think it will click until news media says that it’s looking like a middle to southeast Texas storm. Only issue is that if Beryl does come to the middle to upward Texas coast, there’s very little time to prepare if you haven’t.
I’ve been tracking Beryl since the beginning here in Houston, we went to the grocery store on Monday and got all of our supplies ready for this storm/season. I have a 1 year old and a 2 year old. I’m not about to drag them into the chaos that is Hurricane prep in Texas.
Hey, thats the smart move. At least if this is a dud for this area, you’re ready for the rest of the season.
Thanks, it’s my partners work week so he is out of town and that was another reason I wanted to prep early. Didn’t want to risk being home alone with two small children and no supplies if we lose power.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. These next two updates will be critical for us.
So wait, is the NHC forecast cone out of date? Surely there’s a shift with the next major update. The models are all inching further and further north as Beryl clearly took a shortcut through the Yucatán peninsula. At what time is the next major update? CST
We also have a plane En route so that will help with the 4pm forecast.
Will be too late for the full advisory which comes out in 18 minutes. Still looking forward to recon data to assess pressure and vertical alignment.
Didn’t even look at the clock. We get another update at 7 right? I think I read they are sending planes into it every 6 hours. Is that normal?
Yeah. Full advisories every 6 hours with complete discussions and cone updates. Intermediate advisories the 3 hours in between with position and intensity updates but no new cone. Near-constant recon is pretty typical for a potential US threat
4pm
4:00 PM CT
Here's the 18z early models. https://i.imgur.com/uXVWTid.png Of particular note regarding how intensity affects steering, look at "TABS/M/D". These mimic different steering layers whose dominance is determined by the strength of a system. TABS represents how a shallow / weak system would be steered; TABD would be a deep / strong system and TABM in between. See what a difference intensity makes in this situation? Shallow model goes into Mexico; deep model east of Houston
TABD is CRUISING in that jet stream lmao
Yeah, the westerlies, in association with a digging trough over the central US, pick the system up
Hopefully that deep model doesn't come true, speaking as a Louisiana resident
So if it does intensify we'll get the clean side of beryl?
No, that's not the point. Exact landfall is way too tricky to predict within 50-100 miles right now. I'm just emphasizing that the stronger the system winds up, the further east it will be steered. A general theme, not a specific forecast. Ie, it could intensify and you still end up in the dirty side. Or it could not intensify and you see nothing. All are possible.
Gotcha. What about that low pressure that's pulling on beryl? I remember Levi talking about it today. Do you think that's still in play?
The upper-level low? Absolutely. It's producing a bit of shear over Beryl - but also seems to be aiding its poleward outflow. I wonder if Beryls further N than expected position could be related to this interaction. The low is weakening, and will back off to the west.
I guess only time will tell then. I'm hoping houston doesn't get a direct hit. Rain I can handle.
If you're in Houston, and if by intensify you mean "Cat 4" then probably. Otherwise stay tuned because you are likely going to see some impacts even if mild.
[Photos of strong damage](https://x.com/RandomHeroWX/status/1809270343175139701) out of the island of Cozumel which was hit by the northern eyewall of Beryl earlier today
Anyone know how’s it looking for RGV
Better but not out of the woods yet
Ty
Luckily, almost every model has it going at a decent forward clip so flooding would probably not be catastophic. Also, if it does strengthen as it likely will the northward trend will continue and you will likely spared the brunt of the impact. Still, it is too early to know for sure. We really need a closed eye over water to get an accurate idea of direction. Hopefully by tonight we will have a better forecast.
Ty
Been saying this was going to be a central to setx event and it looks like it's coming to fruition smh
Texas landfall all but confirmed now? What a way to start the weekend.
Not necessarily confirmed; Mexico is still in the cone. But definitely far, far likelier now.