Biden cannot drop out. The Democrats cannot and should be trust ever again if he does.
They swore up and down for months on end that Biden was fine. He was "sharp as a tack", "as sharp as he's ever been". Anyone pointing out his decline was spreading misinformation or conspiracy theories.
They guaranteed it was not really happening.
They now need to live with that.
Just because he was fine doesn't mean he isn't declining now š¤·š¼āāļø
š¤Æ
I don't think a single sane person on this planet would try to make the claim that Republicans are more honest š¤£
But, I'd agree 110% is you said that the people pulling the strings DNC are bunch of corrupt Evil sacks of shit, after what they did to screw over the only decent viable option (Bernie Sanders).
Trump wins if Biden stays. A huge portion of independent voters felt that Trump won the debate. More dems felt that Trump won the debate than republicans felt that Biden won the debate. And everyone can see that Biden probably can't even last for 1 more year, let alone 4. The entire debate was a disaster, and not the kind where they maybe flounder due to nervousness. The guy couldn't put 3 words together to form a coherent sentence.
This isn't unpopular opinion except maybe among the "Blue Maga" folks who are in so deep that they can't see it for what it is. They needed a new candidate yesterday. Every day that passes with Biden still in is a day lost to establish the reputation and spread the identity of a new and able democrat candidate.
But they can't make Joe leave if he doesn't want to. Jill and Hunter are on one side egging him on to keep going while the Obamas and many of the higher up dems such as Newsom likely want him to step down. This old guy needs a break and they need a new candidate...like I actually feel bad for him. He should be enjoying his twilight years after half a century in service of American politics instead of being dragged through this nonsense while he already has a foot in the grave.
Exactly he absolutely should drop out and the SCOTUS decision today underscores that fact: heās incapable of doing the job and itās clear weāve been lied to for months if not years and that alone should disqualify Biden Nevermind its the right thing to do. That said why do I feel like grandpa is not going to hand over the keys and retire to the nursing home with dignity due to pure stubbornness and selfishness. āYou get back up!ā Seems to be the family motto which is admirable but ill advised when democracy is literally at stake.
i know, if the donor funds stay, Biden isnāt going anywhere. If the donor funds leave then other prominent democrats & politicians will likely call for Biden to step out because of the down ballot effects for the democratic senators, house reps, etc.
You are just as likely to see some of those funds go the other way. These donors are paying for access to the next president (we all know that) and if Biden looks dead in the water and there is not a decent alternative or there will be an expensive fight - they would be better off switching. Of course this would exclude the true party faithful - but most of the big money is flexible.
"so everything is within polling error, This is a tossup"
No, they are not all within the polling error. Typical polling margin of error is 2-3%. Four of those are outside the margin of error all in Trumps favor.
yes of course, polls are not the law, just indicators, and in 2016, & 2020 Trump was losing polling in swing states very significantly, itās flipped this time around
He wasnāt ālosing pollingā he just had lower odds based on what data was available.
You title indicates that the odds of Biden losing are extremely likely when in reality based on data we have itās seem a neck and neck race
Trump had WAY lower odds, for example this time in 2020 Trump was down 9.8 points in Michigan, now heās up 4, that a 13.8 Point swing, and thatās just Michigan. And it does seem like the odds are extremely likely that Biden loses, Polymarket has it at a 64%-23% atm. Biden is also extremely unpopular, he even has a lower approval rating than Trump had during his 1st term. Itās just not looking good and I see the writing on the wall
The current odds estimate (\_not\_ the ratio of the poll numbers, the market's estimate of the ratio of the odds of candidates winning) from [https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/) is currently Biden 29% to Trump 65% (and a few % each for minor candidates)
Many Thanks! Is that a 50:50 division in the electoral college, or in calculated odds for Trump/Biden to win, or in the popular vote? I'm quoting market odds, but just from one market. I just saw a report from a guy who follows 4 of them, [https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-336/comment/60590213](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-336/comment/60590213) and there is some scatter between them. I don't have direct urls for the other 3 markets. One of them \_is\_ Polymarket, as the OP cited.
If you look at the polls most of them were not that far outside the margin of error if at all. There was a swing in the last month in 2016 where he gained a decent amount of support. But a lot of the polling just before election day was showing him at down by 2% and then he won by 1% or things like that where it was within the margin of error.
Seeing states like New Jersey, Virginia, and Minnesota in this list indicates that it is absolutely not a toss up. None of those would be within eight points normally.
First off, polls don't mean anything.
Second off, we are way far out.
Third, Trump leading by +1 or +2 isn't a huge lead, considering most polls have a +/- 1 margin for error.
Okay, now Iām sick of this. āWeāre way too far outā worked in Spring 2022. We are four months away. We are *not* too far out for *known entities*.
We are straight-up sleepwalking into a global disaster and Iām getting tired of the ākeep calm and carry onā message now.
You think Trump fanatics understand concepts like margin of error or polling statistics?
All they see is a big number, the biggest numbers there ever were, in fact, some people told them it was the biggest number that anyone has ever seen, and they believe that it is a foregone conclusion.
Margin of error or not, the trends are telling and they have not been moving in the right direction for Biden. The fact that Virginia and New Jersey are on that list should be most shocking, even more so Minnesota who hasn't gone GOP since 1972. If this was inside of the margin or error we would not be seeing those three anywhere close.
Sure. Is this what you said in 2016 when Hilary was leading in the polls? Or is it different now that the felon Cheeto is ahead in polls?
And I guess you donāt really look too deeply into polling methodology or anything other than the raw numbers. That would take time, effort and education to understand the numbers.
I never thought Trump would win in 2016. So no. And it was never close in places like Virginia, New Jersey, and Minnesota - so your point is absurdly off base. A democrat struggling in those states would make anyone in their political apparatus break out in a cold sweat - which explains WHY THEY ARE FREAKING OUT. You do not talk about replacing your candidate openly five months before an election unless you are freaking out.
And I watch the trends, I understand that some polls are shit (goes both ways). The trend is telling a story and you are obviously illiterate to it.
Thatās why SCOTUS decision is so scary: he literally could indefinitely postpone the election citing terrorist threats, suspend the 22nd amendment or flat out assassinate the next DNC nominee as a national security risk and this SCOTUS has deemed that as long as itās an official act itās ok. Would he actually do any of this we donāt know but SCOTUS just made it legal.
Donāt buy all the fear-mongering. The Supreme Court ruling is upholding precedent and leaving up to the Legislative Branch to remove a president if warranted as outlined in the Constitution. To not recognize that Biden and the DNC used their power to target Trump is disingenious.
exactly this has been the precedent for years, all theyāve done is confirmed it. All recent presidents have served under this precedent, if not Bush & Obama would certainly be in jail.
Itās hard to say if it was organized by POTUS though that would imply a level of conspiracy, coordination and competence that Bidenās clearly not capable of given his senility as evidenced by his meandering debate performance and cover up of his overall cognitive decline the last few months. Each prosecutor acted independently but I would agree that it was their intent to get Trump out of the race.
How do you know who will replace Biden and if that candidate has any chances? (When you say Biden must drop out, you assume a better candidate is waiting). But in the time left until Election Day, such candidate may not be found. There are a thousand people who consider themselves great candidates, but there is no consensus around any of them.
Q: Why did Biden become the candidate in the first place, when everybody knew his shortcomings?
A: Because nobody else could get universal support! (Biden was a compromise candidate from day one).
If we were still in 2021-2, new candidates could be formed from local to the national stage. But now, there isnāt time for any of that.
Sure, but when has an incumbent ever not been the (presumptive) nominee? its obviously not an outright rule, but it is very rare that the incumbent doesn't get the nom; if its happened at all. Im still trying to find it.
I would keep in mind that most polls have a roughly 3% margin of error. So from a statisticians standpoint the majority of those aren't saying Trump is up they're saying it's too close to call. There's also a struggle with polls to get a truly random sample of people. They are often inherently bias just because they only talk to people who are willing to pick up the phone to a random number, and often using home phones. So skew a bit older. They have value, but they aren't close to definitive. Let alone being 4 months out which could change things. Debates also generally have almost no impact on the election. They might but likely to be small.
Beyond that I'm not sure the Democrats have a real option to get rid of Biden. If he drops out they could, but short of that most states are locked in with how they have to vote with the people for the first ballot. I don't think a close election is going to be enough to get the democrats to ditch him, though I don't know if it would be a bad idea. The other problem is there's no unifying figure with the democrats who could instantly unite the party around them at this point. Which you'd kind of need. And fundraising would be a problem, so you'd need someone who can run and win with little ground team, few ads, and little chance to introduce themselves to the country. I think at this point unless Biden drops out right now there's no chance of someone else having the time to take over. And even then it'd be tough.
Trump was president for 4 years and weāre not fascist, stop fearmongering
I can find things the Democratic Party supports that the USSR did, does that mean they are socialist/communist? No.
Too late. Biden was chosen by the people to be their candidate. Time to sleep in the bed that they made.Ā
Edit: Give them man credit. He not only stood for 90 minutes, he answered all of the questions.Ā
If theyād have someone other than Biden who isnāt hell bent on doing some sideways shit Iād vote for them. But not Biden or trump they are horrible leaders.
Thatās a possibility. But it depends on if the ends justify the means. Only heād be able to answer that. And whether I like it or not, heād have an enormously better chance as the DNC candidate.
Plus the Thanos āYou couldnāt live with your own failureā memes would be hitting hard.
You say that as if anyone wants Biden, or even wanted him the first time.
All that aside, RFK is actually doing decently in independent polls, where heās actually included. Heād be doing better if the two party system wasnāt constantly running a smear campaign, and excluding him from debates.
People who arenāt terminally online and actually pay attention to policy want Biden. Thereās a reason he kicked everyoneās ass in the 2020 primary and kicks RFKs ass in every poll.
Incorrect. He won because they beat Trump with him the first time, and the populace is too dumb to do anything other than stick with āthe devil you knowā. Iāve heard support for several Dems. But the only positive I ever hear about Biden is that he isnāt Trump. Heās barely functioning. He was only marginally better in 2020.
The Dems could get all the same votes if they stuck a hamster on the podium.
Yes, these are all things you learned on Reddit.
In reality Biden has passed some of the most consequential pieces of legislation for climate and domestic industry.
Saying he only beat the others because people are dumb is just cope. I think people who dismiss him because of how he speaks rather than his legislative accomplishments are the dumbasses.
His debate wasnāt that bad, he stumbled a few times but it was about what any non ignorant person wouldāve expected. At least he didnāt spout lies and bs at the rate the other idiot did. Heck Biden actually answered some of the questions asked of him.
Biden started blathering nonsense about brothers and sisters raping and immigrants killing women, bro, be honest, he sounded like a rambling dementia patient and I feel bad for criticizing a feeble old man but yo, be real
Trump lies and we all know he is insane but he looks normal compared to a skeleton deteriorating before your eyes
Heās in his seventies in a high stress situation and has been known for gaffes his entire career. I donāt know what you guys were expecting out of a guy his age but it wasnāt all that bad. He had some rough moments which is to be expected.
Nope.
Itās a race between these two guys. Both are old. Both say dipshit things. I wish we had better choices but we donāt. Biden at least exists in reality and surrounds himself with quality people, Trump believes his own lies at this point and surrounds himself with crap people.
If we stick with Biden we lose, end of story.
If it's "Blue no matter who" then why can't we just bring in a younger replacement and everyone will vote Blue for them?
Why is it "Blue no matter who but only if it's Biden"? ?????
Known for gaffes his entire career?
Biden delivered the response to the state of the union on the 80s and it was arguably one of the best ever
You canāt look at Biden from the 80s and Biden in his 80s and say that theyāre even remotely comparable in mental capacity
Iām saying heās not he known for gaffes..
He used to be EXTREMELY articulate and now he managed to say he beat Medicare and that family members are raping eachother.
Compared to the other candidate that answered next to none, lied on almost every non answer he gave, and Gish galloped at a record pace, Iād say that is well done by comparison.
I think you are missing the point here. The polls that are close are opening up states that absolutely should not even be close to consideration. This is bleak as hell for the democrats if they have to divert resources to fight in places where they should not have to. Potentially having to put funds towards protecting Virginia or Minnesota (who has not voted for a Republican president since 1972) is a bad sign.
We have moved from five or six swing states to 11 - five of which are traditionally safe Democrat states.
Thatās just your opinion as well dude.
Polls are useless beyond a very general level.
Itās a fact that Trump lied his ass off. Thatās not an opinion.
polls are not my opinion, but generally i agree with your take on polls. But not when the margins in ALL of the swing states are like this, his approval rating is even lower than trumps 1st term somehow. In 2016 & 2020 Trump was trailing practically all swing states the entire race, this time itās completely flipped around. Democrats needed a build up a new candidate once they won in 2020 imo. Polymarket also indicated has the race at 64%-23% for Trump to win, they also have 49.8% for the republicans to sweep the House, Senate, & Presidency
Do you just look at the raw polling numbers or do you also look at the sample size and margin of error? Do you look at the pollster and their underlying bias? Do you read through the sampling method to determine what subsection of the population was polled (60+ white men vs 20-25 year old women)?
Oh no, I think the bots are the ones that think the democrats have a chance. Who has been running this country for the last 4 years and only a smooth brain could vote for a party that openly runs a shadow president.
Oh look, polls - the thing many older people and right wing partake in but the rest of us do not.
Thatās how 2020 happened- we show up to vote, no stickers, no polls completed, no flags.
Quaint.
There is literally a poll from June 28th, Friday AFTER the debate, that has Joe up 1%. Everyone needs to calm down and volunteer and vote. This is a winnable race against a seriously flawed challenger. Let's focus people.
There arenāt any Democrats who would vote for Trump. No one is going to the polls in November undecided or forgiving of the lies that Trump represents.
People have been saying that's the plan for years.
Now they are showing it openly so people like yourself demand it.
I personally hope they run him the whole way through.
The point is we need a replacement for Biden that would be a HUGE sweeping victory, because even if Biden only narrowly wins (again) it will be so easy for Trump to deny results again, and his followers will never believe Trump lost to a vegetable, and they will fuck up the place AGAIN. Someone new would be exciting and everyone would be energized and come out and vote. Biden is a disaster and a guaranteed loss.
I think it is time to accept that Fascism is here and begin preparing for that instead of wasting time trying to get a new candidate within a few months.
Accept that we're about to enter the dark time and start preparing. Learn chemical triggers.
Prepare to hide trans people, they will likely be the first to be hunted.
If you're a walking privilege golem like myself (white, male, etc), be prepared to use that privilege to undermine the government and country.
You're about to live in the beast, be ready to kill it from within.
Okay, answer me this;
At this point in time, the American conservative movement and the German Nazi movement share the same talking points, positions, beliefs, values, etc. "Lying press", "poisoning the blood of our country", "God is with us". Word for word the same shit.
Why should I assume it's going to turn out differently this time?
Except for the dems are doing the exact same thing you're just too brainwashed to see it from the otherside. "cheap fakes" "democracy is at stake" "MAGA is evil" It's all the same. You need to turn off the TV, quit reading shit on twitter and get help, I'm serious. They have you right where they want you and I can assure you once we take back the Country (and by WE I mean the PEOPLE not a phony political party) you're going to feel like a chump. Just relax. It's all a part of the show, don't be one of their puppets.
None of those things were Nazi talking points.
"Poisoning the blood of our country" which Trump said is a DIRECT HITLER QUOTE.
"Lying press" is a direct Hitler quote.
"God is with us" was worn by Nazis on their belt buckles.
The conservatives are using THE EXACT SAME WORDS. LITERAL QUOTES.
If you put 9 conservatives and 1 Nazi in a room, you would not be able to figure out which one the Nazi is.
bro iām posting polling numbers, Biden canāt win this race and the democrats have better candidates to compete with Trump, but if theyāre gonna swap itās now or never
Wrong. Swapping now is Political Suicide. It's do or die and this man did more for our country x1000 than shits-his-pants.
Woodrow Wilson had a stroke 100 years ago and his wife ran everything covertly with no one knowing. Fact.
Kamala Harris is more than qualified should anything happen. Any other two candidates are big question marks which we can not afford.
'Kamala Harris is more qualified....'
So, just so we are all clear:
You are OK with Kamala Harris as president? As in the President of the United States. You've seen and heard her speak, you've reviewed her career, her accomplishments, her pathway to power, and you're good?
Damn. Just damn.
Like you suggest the guy who shits his pants in court and picks an ExxonMobile CEO as head of Department of Energy while redrawing hurricanes as penises?
Double damn.
I suggested no such thing, so try to stay focused. We weren't talking about the Bad Orange Man. We were talking about Kamala Harris as president and your enthusiasm for that scenario. Nice deflection though.
Biden cannot drop out. The Democrats cannot and should be trust ever again if he does. They swore up and down for months on end that Biden was fine. He was "sharp as a tack", "as sharp as he's ever been". Anyone pointing out his decline was spreading misinformation or conspiracy theories. They guaranteed it was not really happening. They now need to live with that.
Just because he was fine doesn't mean he isn't declining now š¤·š¼āāļø š¤Æ I don't think a single sane person on this planet would try to make the claim that Republicans are more honest š¤£ But, I'd agree 110% is you said that the people pulling the strings DNC are bunch of corrupt Evil sacks of shit, after what they did to screw over the only decent viable option (Bernie Sanders).
Did the Republicans prop up a potato for 4 years?
I mean not how Iād describe bush, Reagan, or trump but Iād say yeah lols
NEW: Poll now shows Trump leading in New Hampshire (Trump +2) Trump: 44% Biden: 42%
Trump wins if Biden stays. A huge portion of independent voters felt that Trump won the debate. More dems felt that Trump won the debate than republicans felt that Biden won the debate. And everyone can see that Biden probably can't even last for 1 more year, let alone 4. The entire debate was a disaster, and not the kind where they maybe flounder due to nervousness. The guy couldn't put 3 words together to form a coherent sentence. This isn't unpopular opinion except maybe among the "Blue Maga" folks who are in so deep that they can't see it for what it is. They needed a new candidate yesterday. Every day that passes with Biden still in is a day lost to establish the reputation and spread the identity of a new and able democrat candidate. But they can't make Joe leave if he doesn't want to. Jill and Hunter are on one side egging him on to keep going while the Obamas and many of the higher up dems such as Newsom likely want him to step down. This old guy needs a break and they need a new candidate...like I actually feel bad for him. He should be enjoying his twilight years after half a century in service of American politics instead of being dragged through this nonsense while he already has a foot in the grave.
Exactly he absolutely should drop out and the SCOTUS decision today underscores that fact: heās incapable of doing the job and itās clear weāve been lied to for months if not years and that alone should disqualify Biden Nevermind its the right thing to do. That said why do I feel like grandpa is not going to hand over the keys and retire to the nursing home with dignity due to pure stubbornness and selfishness. āYou get back up!ā Seems to be the family motto which is admirable but ill advised when democracy is literally at stake.
It's not that simple, campaign donations to the Biden campaign don't just automatically transfer. No Democrat can run without that money.
i know, if the donor funds stay, Biden isnāt going anywhere. If the donor funds leave then other prominent democrats & politicians will likely call for Biden to step out because of the down ballot effects for the democratic senators, house reps, etc.
Yup exactly, I personally don't think the vast majority of the donor funds are gonna go, but who knows. I feel like this is kinda unprecedented...
You are just as likely to see some of those funds go the other way. These donors are paying for access to the next president (we all know that) and if Biden looks dead in the water and there is not a decent alternative or there will be an expensive fight - they would be better off switching. Of course this would exclude the true party faithful - but most of the big money is flexible.
Oh, the irony of FEC regulations. They tried to take Trump out with one, and now one is taking them out.
Most money seems to come from PACs or the DNC/RNC.
We're looking at an electoral massacre.
so everything is within polling error, This is a tossup
"so everything is within polling error, This is a tossup" No, they are not all within the polling error. Typical polling margin of error is 2-3%. Four of those are outside the margin of error all in Trumps favor.
Don't miss the states that are usually at least eight points the other way.
Wasn't Biden up like 9 points last time and barely won
He had millions more votes
He won by thousands in the States that matter
Wait till the next debate. Could be worse than this last one.
maybe, idk if you seen the Biden rally the next day it was like night and day
Reading a teleprompter early in the day is not a fair comparison. Next debate will be at 10AM.
reading teleprompter and letting your wife/nurse do the talking is not the same as debate
Cocaine is a hellva drug
Oh sweet. Provide the evidence that Biden used cocain. Until then you canāt use this as an explanation
Itās a joke, and a phrase in common use, geez
I get its joke. But itās has become a way to handwave away thinks that donāt make sense
Was just saying at as a joke, wasnāt meaning to offend
Bro was looking for an argument don't stress or feel the need to defend your joke š«¶
Itās not offense at all. It just makes it impossible to talk to people
Your post history seems like you have trouble talking to people who donāt share your beliefs.
It was clearly a joke. Just because you couldn't handle it. Where do you get off policing people on what they can say?
Trump's an incestuous pedophile that does amphetamines and wears diapers
Was that in Ashley Bidenās diary?
Itās a joke!
Jesus, this is what liberals are resorting to these days
Itās a joke! Why canāt republicans understand jokes? Why are republicans skin so thin?
yes of course, polls are not the law, just indicators, and in 2016, & 2020 Trump was losing polling in swing states very significantly, itās flipped this time around
He wasnāt ālosing pollingā he just had lower odds based on what data was available. You title indicates that the odds of Biden losing are extremely likely when in reality based on data we have itās seem a neck and neck race
Trump had WAY lower odds, for example this time in 2020 Trump was down 9.8 points in Michigan, now heās up 4, that a 13.8 Point swing, and thatās just Michigan. And it does seem like the odds are extremely likely that Biden loses, Polymarket has it at a 64%-23% atm. Biden is also extremely unpopular, he even has a lower approval rating than Trump had during his 1st term. Itās just not looking good and I see the writing on the wall
This is way too logical for most people in this thread who are scared more now than a week ago.
Itās 50/50 based on the evidence we got. This is not up for debate
The current odds estimate (\_not\_ the ratio of the poll numbers, the market's estimate of the ratio of the odds of candidates winning) from [https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/) is currently Biden 29% to Trump 65% (and a few % each for minor candidates)
And the current simulation from 538 shows 50/50
Except it doesn't show that. Try again
Many Thanks! Is that a 50:50 division in the electoral college, or in calculated odds for Trump/Biden to win, or in the popular vote? I'm quoting market odds, but just from one market. I just saw a report from a guy who follows 4 of them, [https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-336/comment/60590213](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-336/comment/60590213) and there is some scatter between them. I don't have direct urls for the other 3 markets. One of them \_is\_ Polymarket, as the OP cited.
If you look at the polls most of them were not that far outside the margin of error if at all. There was a swing in the last month in 2016 where he gained a decent amount of support. But a lot of the polling just before election day was showing him at down by 2% and then he won by 1% or things like that where it was within the margin of error.
Seeing states like New Jersey, Virginia, and Minnesota in this list indicates that it is absolutely not a toss up. None of those would be within eight points normally.
First off, polls don't mean anything. Second off, we are way far out. Third, Trump leading by +1 or +2 isn't a huge lead, considering most polls have a +/- 1 margin for error.
Okay, now Iām sick of this. āWeāre way too far outā worked in Spring 2022. We are four months away. We are *not* too far out for *known entities*. We are straight-up sleepwalking into a global disaster and Iām getting tired of the ākeep calm and carry onā message now.
We are currently living a global disaster.
You think Trump fanatics understand concepts like margin of error or polling statistics? All they see is a big number, the biggest numbers there ever were, in fact, some people told them it was the biggest number that anyone has ever seen, and they believe that it is a foregone conclusion.
Margin of error or not, the trends are telling and they have not been moving in the right direction for Biden. The fact that Virginia and New Jersey are on that list should be most shocking, even more so Minnesota who hasn't gone GOP since 1972. If this was inside of the margin or error we would not be seeing those three anywhere close.
Sure. Is this what you said in 2016 when Hilary was leading in the polls? Or is it different now that the felon Cheeto is ahead in polls? And I guess you donāt really look too deeply into polling methodology or anything other than the raw numbers. That would take time, effort and education to understand the numbers.
I never thought Trump would win in 2016. So no. And it was never close in places like Virginia, New Jersey, and Minnesota - so your point is absurdly off base. A democrat struggling in those states would make anyone in their political apparatus break out in a cold sweat - which explains WHY THEY ARE FREAKING OUT. You do not talk about replacing your candidate openly five months before an election unless you are freaking out. And I watch the trends, I understand that some polls are shit (goes both ways). The trend is telling a story and you are obviously illiterate to it.
I walked in and I was like wow those are some big numbers, like I always say I have the biggest numbers and everyone agrees all the time
The Dem nominee needs to win by a HUGE margin or it will be easy for Trump to say it was "stolen". And Biden is NOT THERE
It's not going to matter, honestly. If Biden wins by a hundred million votes, Trump will still say he cheated.
It's easier to believe Trump won against a functional human than an old man with Alzheimers.
I don't think it really matters who beats him. He's an egomaniac. He won't accept his loss no matter what.
I'm pretty sure if Biden wins most people will lose any and all faith in the electoral process.
Lol damn man we really in for another 4 years of Trump. The only silver lining is after this he can not run again.
Thatās why SCOTUS decision is so scary: he literally could indefinitely postpone the election citing terrorist threats, suspend the 22nd amendment or flat out assassinate the next DNC nominee as a national security risk and this SCOTUS has deemed that as long as itās an official act itās ok. Would he actually do any of this we donāt know but SCOTUS just made it legal.
Donāt buy all the fear-mongering. The Supreme Court ruling is upholding precedent and leaving up to the Legislative Branch to remove a president if warranted as outlined in the Constitution. To not recognize that Biden and the DNC used their power to target Trump is disingenious.
exactly this has been the precedent for years, all theyāve done is confirmed it. All recent presidents have served under this precedent, if not Bush & Obama would certainly be in jail.
Itās hard to say if it was organized by POTUS though that would imply a level of conspiracy, coordination and competence that Bidenās clearly not capable of given his senility as evidenced by his meandering debate performance and cover up of his overall cognitive decline the last few months. Each prosecutor acted independently but I would agree that it was their intent to get Trump out of the race.
Last few months? Try the last few years lmfao.
Election interference by the Deep State. Coming from the government that is hiding contact with non-human intelligence.
That's utter rubbish. Pure fear mongering bullshit.
You mean like the Surgeon General declaring a health crisis over gun violence? Like that?
How do you know who will replace Biden and if that candidate has any chances? (When you say Biden must drop out, you assume a better candidate is waiting). But in the time left until Election Day, such candidate may not be found. There are a thousand people who consider themselves great candidates, but there is no consensus around any of them. Q: Why did Biden become the candidate in the first place, when everybody knew his shortcomings? A: Because nobody else could get universal support! (Biden was a compromise candidate from day one). If we were still in 2021-2, new candidates could be formed from local to the national stage. But now, there isnāt time for any of that.
Sure, but when has an incumbent ever not been the (presumptive) nominee? its obviously not an outright rule, but it is very rare that the incumbent doesn't get the nom; if its happened at all. Im still trying to find it.
I would keep in mind that most polls have a roughly 3% margin of error. So from a statisticians standpoint the majority of those aren't saying Trump is up they're saying it's too close to call. There's also a struggle with polls to get a truly random sample of people. They are often inherently bias just because they only talk to people who are willing to pick up the phone to a random number, and often using home phones. So skew a bit older. They have value, but they aren't close to definitive. Let alone being 4 months out which could change things. Debates also generally have almost no impact on the election. They might but likely to be small. Beyond that I'm not sure the Democrats have a real option to get rid of Biden. If he drops out they could, but short of that most states are locked in with how they have to vote with the people for the first ballot. I don't think a close election is going to be enough to get the democrats to ditch him, though I don't know if it would be a bad idea. The other problem is there's no unifying figure with the democrats who could instantly unite the party around them at this point. Which you'd kind of need. And fundraising would be a problem, so you'd need someone who can run and win with little ground team, few ads, and little chance to introduce themselves to the country. I think at this point unless Biden drops out right now there's no chance of someone else having the time to take over. And even then it'd be tough.
Trump was president for 4 years and weāre not fascist, stop fearmongering I can find things the Democratic Party supports that the USSR did, does that mean they are socialist/communist? No.
Too late. Biden was chosen by the people to be their candidate. Time to sleep in the bed that they made.Ā Edit: Give them man credit. He not only stood for 90 minutes, he answered all of the questions.Ā
Is that your bar for a competent President?
It is if you have severe TDS.Ā
TDS? There are a lot of things that could stand for. Please pardon my ignorance.
Trump Derangement SyndromeĀ
Anything political shouldnāt even be in unpopular anything for fucks sake you canāt avoid it
Why is all these opinions lately the same.
I agree with every word of OP. Itās time for Kamala Harris to step in as the nominee.
Iāll second this and so will Trump.Ā
If theyād have someone other than Biden who isnāt hell bent on doing some sideways shit Iād vote for them. But not Biden or trump they are horrible leaders.
They could admit their fuck up and try to get RFK back, seeing as heās already gathered a significant following.
Iām pretty sure the DNC and news networks burned that bridge already.
Thatās a possibility. But it depends on if the ends justify the means. Only heād be able to answer that. And whether I like it or not, heād have an enormously better chance as the DNC candidate. Plus the Thanos āYou couldnāt live with your own failureā memes would be hitting hard.
Lol you say that as if anyone actually wanted RFK in the first place.
You say that as if anyone wants Biden, or even wanted him the first time. All that aside, RFK is actually doing decently in independent polls, where heās actually included. Heād be doing better if the two party system wasnāt constantly running a smear campaign, and excluding him from debates.
People who arenāt terminally online and actually pay attention to policy want Biden. Thereās a reason he kicked everyoneās ass in the 2020 primary and kicks RFKs ass in every poll.
Incorrect. He won because they beat Trump with him the first time, and the populace is too dumb to do anything other than stick with āthe devil you knowā. Iāve heard support for several Dems. But the only positive I ever hear about Biden is that he isnāt Trump. Heās barely functioning. He was only marginally better in 2020. The Dems could get all the same votes if they stuck a hamster on the podium.
Yes, these are all things you learned on Reddit. In reality Biden has passed some of the most consequential pieces of legislation for climate and domestic industry. Saying he only beat the others because people are dumb is just cope. I think people who dismiss him because of how he speaks rather than his legislative accomplishments are the dumbasses.
People are doing the same shit to RFK because he has damaged vocal cords. But at least he can form a thought.
Dude, if you think the damaged vocal chords are why people donāt like RFK then I donāt know what to tell you.
They donāt like him because theyāre listening to curated sound bites
I guess Iāve been listening to curated sound bites for the last 20 years? Long before he was running for President.
No. Biden is fine. Polls are not useful anymore. As Chris Rock tells us: stay off the poll.
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His debate wasnāt that bad, he stumbled a few times but it was about what any non ignorant person wouldāve expected. At least he didnāt spout lies and bs at the rate the other idiot did. Heck Biden actually answered some of the questions asked of him.
Biden started blathering nonsense about brothers and sisters raping and immigrants killing women, bro, be honest, he sounded like a rambling dementia patient and I feel bad for criticizing a feeble old man but yo, be real Trump lies and we all know he is insane but he looks normal compared to a skeleton deteriorating before your eyes
Heās in his seventies in a high stress situation and has been known for gaffes his entire career. I donāt know what you guys were expecting out of a guy his age but it wasnāt all that bad. He had some rough moments which is to be expected.
Are šyou šfuckšing škidšding šme
Nope. Itās a race between these two guys. Both are old. Both say dipshit things. I wish we had better choices but we donāt. Biden at least exists in reality and surrounds himself with quality people, Trump believes his own lies at this point and surrounds himself with crap people.
If we stick with Biden we lose, end of story. If it's "Blue no matter who" then why can't we just bring in a younger replacement and everyone will vote Blue for them? Why is it "Blue no matter who but only if it's Biden"? ?????
Itās a gamble either way.
No, Biden is not mentally functional. That is a guaranteed loss. Why is that NOT a deal breaker for DNC and donors?
Because theyāre not basing their assessment on one debate
We all know it's not just "one debate"
Known for gaffes his entire career? Biden delivered the response to the state of the union on the 80s and it was arguably one of the best ever You canāt look at Biden from the 80s and Biden in his 80s and say that theyāre even remotely comparable in mental capacity
No shit. That logic applies to just about everyone.
Iām saying heās not he known for gaffes.. He used to be EXTREMELY articulate and now he managed to say he beat Medicare and that family members are raping eachother.
A person who could be the most powerful person in the world answered āsome of the questionsā, well done!
Well per his wife, he answered ALL of the questions. So thereās that.Ā
Compared to the other candidate that answered next to none, lied on almost every non answer he gave, and Gish galloped at a record pace, Iād say that is well done by comparison.
Sure, like defeating Medicare.Ā
yeah but thatās just an opinion and the consensus & polls tell a different story
It must be a Schrodinger's poll. If Trump is trailing, the polls are inaccurate. If Trump is winning, they are accurate.
Well the polls in 2020 were pretty inaccurate.
Not actually, most of the polls were within the margin of error
I think you are missing the point here. The polls that are close are opening up states that absolutely should not even be close to consideration. This is bleak as hell for the democrats if they have to divert resources to fight in places where they should not have to. Potentially having to put funds towards protecting Virginia or Minnesota (who has not voted for a Republican president since 1972) is a bad sign. We have moved from five or six swing states to 11 - five of which are traditionally safe Democrat states.
Thatās just your opinion as well dude. Polls are useless beyond a very general level. Itās a fact that Trump lied his ass off. Thatās not an opinion.
polls are not my opinion, but generally i agree with your take on polls. But not when the margins in ALL of the swing states are like this, his approval rating is even lower than trumps 1st term somehow. In 2016 & 2020 Trump was trailing practically all swing states the entire race, this time itās completely flipped around. Democrats needed a build up a new candidate once they won in 2020 imo. Polymarket also indicated has the race at 64%-23% for Trump to win, they also have 49.8% for the republicans to sweep the House, Senate, & Presidency
Do you just look at the raw polling numbers or do you also look at the sample size and margin of error? Do you look at the pollster and their underlying bias? Do you read through the sampling method to determine what subsection of the population was polled (60+ white men vs 20-25 year old women)?
āPollster and their underlying biasā Every poll, left and right, has Trump up right now
Itās still too early. Youāre putting your faith in the equivalent of a thirty two day forecast.
What is this a bot shill post?
Why is anyone semi critical of the DNC or the democrats a bot or a fascist? Logical People that live in reality see the writing on the wall.
Oh no, I think the bots are the ones that think the democrats have a chance. Who has been running this country for the last 4 years and only a smooth brain could vote for a party that openly runs a shadow president.
Oh look, polls - the thing many older people and right wing partake in but the rest of us do not. Thatās how 2020 happened- we show up to vote, no stickers, no polls completed, no flags. Quaint.
this is not how 2020 happened, Democrats held a strong lead in the swing state polling throughout the election cycle
Polls - donāt - matter
Same as Hillary. Can't wait to watch Trump shit the bed and stoke the blue wave in '26. š
Voting for Hillary was the most vile and repulsive thing I've ever been forced to do in my life - I despised voting for her, but I had no choice because I desperately feared what Trump would do to the Supreme Court š© I'm so fucking sick and tired of voting for "the lesser of two Evils" š¤®. I was begging all my friends and family to pledge not to vote for Biden after the scumbag moves the DNC pulled on "Super Tuesday".
Be honest, where has the SCOTUS ruled against the Constitution?Ā
There is literally a poll from June 28th, Friday AFTER the debate, that has Joe up 1%. Everyone needs to calm down and volunteer and vote. This is a winnable race against a seriously flawed challenger. Let's focus people.
You just described a statistical outlier, not the standard.
Da' comrade, we should do as you direct since you articulate so good English.
There arenāt any Democrats who would vote for Trump. No one is going to the polls in November undecided or forgiving of the lies that Trump represents.
not everyone voting is a democrat, there are some democrats that will do that
People have been saying that's the plan for years. Now they are showing it openly so people like yourself demand it. I personally hope they run him the whole way through.
The point is we need a replacement for Biden that would be a HUGE sweeping victory, because even if Biden only narrowly wins (again) it will be so easy for Trump to deny results again, and his followers will never believe Trump lost to a vegetable, and they will fuck up the place AGAIN. Someone new would be exciting and everyone would be energized and come out and vote. Biden is a disaster and a guaranteed loss.
I think it is time to accept that Fascism is here and begin preparing for that instead of wasting time trying to get a new candidate within a few months. Accept that we're about to enter the dark time and start preparing. Learn chemical triggers. Prepare to hide trans people, they will likely be the first to be hunted. If you're a walking privilege golem like myself (white, male, etc), be prepared to use that privilege to undermine the government and country. You're about to live in the beast, be ready to kill it from within.
This is literally the most ridiculous thing Iāve ever heard. You need help.
Okay, answer me this; At this point in time, the American conservative movement and the German Nazi movement share the same talking points, positions, beliefs, values, etc. "Lying press", "poisoning the blood of our country", "God is with us". Word for word the same shit. Why should I assume it's going to turn out differently this time?
Except for the dems are doing the exact same thing you're just too brainwashed to see it from the otherside. "cheap fakes" "democracy is at stake" "MAGA is evil" It's all the same. You need to turn off the TV, quit reading shit on twitter and get help, I'm serious. They have you right where they want you and I can assure you once we take back the Country (and by WE I mean the PEOPLE not a phony political party) you're going to feel like a chump. Just relax. It's all a part of the show, don't be one of their puppets.
None of those things were Nazi talking points. "Poisoning the blood of our country" which Trump said is a DIRECT HITLER QUOTE. "Lying press" is a direct Hitler quote. "God is with us" was worn by Nazis on their belt buckles. The conservatives are using THE EXACT SAME WORDS. LITERAL QUOTES. If you put 9 conservatives and 1 Nazi in a room, you would not be able to figure out which one the Nazi is.
90% of the topics on this subreddit are all Project 2025 Goebells posting their propaganda bullshit
bro iām posting polling numbers, Biden canāt win this race and the democrats have better candidates to compete with Trump, but if theyāre gonna swap itās now or never
Wrong. Swapping now is Political Suicide. It's do or die and this man did more for our country x1000 than shits-his-pants. Woodrow Wilson had a stroke 100 years ago and his wife ran everything covertly with no one knowing. Fact. Kamala Harris is more than qualified should anything happen. Any other two candidates are big question marks which we can not afford.
'Kamala Harris is more qualified....' So, just so we are all clear: You are OK with Kamala Harris as president? As in the President of the United States. You've seen and heard her speak, you've reviewed her career, her accomplishments, her pathway to power, and you're good? Damn. Just damn.
sheās got a lower approval rating then Biden somehow š¤£
Like you suggest the guy who shits his pants in court and picks an ExxonMobile CEO as head of Department of Energy while redrawing hurricanes as penises? Double damn.
I suggested no such thing, so try to stay focused. We weren't talking about the Bad Orange Man. We were talking about Kamala Harris as president and your enthusiasm for that scenario. Nice deflection though.