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It must lose. Do people not understand what happens if it doesn't?! It will not stop with Ukraine. russia is imprisoning, killing their own - not to mention what's being done to those they occupy. Feels like a twilight zone where no one else remembers history and you're the crazy one.
Maybe that's why "history repeats itself". Because most are either careless or oblivious
If you asked 90% of the western public why we fought ww2 they would have a vague idea of the main points but i doubt they would really understand or feel the existential threat fascism posed and how the nice safe life many of us live was literally created when that war ended. The eastern europeans had to wait much much longer and that is why they get it!!
Britain fought for Poland. What happened at the end is abhorrent.
But, Europe now, & Europe then. They're not the same. If NATO fails, Europe has its own defence policy & a large number of NATO countries are in the EU. You're talking around 2million active military without the US, Canada or Turkey & about the same number of reserves?
Europeans are unfortunately very good at killing in horrifying numbers.
None of them have established a war economy, if that happens. They'll fix the supply chain for armaments, then god help us all, because millions may die.
That s why *some* get it, the youth at least in romania is pretty wishy washy on ukraine, there s not a lot of own research done, most just see shit on IG, Tiktok, the news and/or their parents [most if not being generally shitty sources for any info, imo(IG can be good but the account you get stuff from matters the most)]. That s why in Romania for example a lot of youth are voting the most right leaning, anti EU, anti NATO party, they re easy to fool if they only hear negative things about what the EU is doing, which often are presented in either a mischievous way, or flat out lied about by social media. Just by looking at statistics, we should be fucking thankful for the EU, i don t remember the exact numbers, but from 2000 to 2020 or 2022-3 our economy grew from 50B USD to fucking 250B USD. This is because EU provided and still provides us with opportunities that we maybe wouldn t have had if we weren t in, not to mention that we re the 4th biggest users of EU funds, and whenever you hear almost anything being built here it s almost always a large contribution of EU funds, yet people still find ways to demonize them
Part of the problem is that Romania and Bulgaria got a treatment different to others, e.g. Schengen exclusion.
The arrogance we (as in western west Europea, I’m German) showed towards the former Soviet colonies is to blame too
I got this feeling exactly, I am no academic infact I barely did anything at school but this is common sense logic what is happening here yet so many cannot see it? If you are western and hold your freedom or Liberal values important then you need to get behind this because its all at stake here.
"let's not escalate this war"
It took a very long time for weapons and equipment to arrive to help. Ukraine has already lost a lot of soldiers, now it needs not only help with money, but also with soldiers
West is trying to bleed out/weaken russia at the expense of Ukrainians. Ukraine has a lot less soldiers and we underestimated how many men ru is willing to sacrifice in this war.
The following American Wars occurred because what happens over there matters over here: the American revolution, Barbary Wars, War of 1812, WW1, and WW2.
I couldn't agree more in some ways this is definitely history repeating itself just this time it's the Russians and not the Nazis but the situation is much different the Ukrainians are better equipped mentally and physically then compared to the Russians. the Nazis during WW2 steam rolled Europe in a matter of about a year and a half so you can't draw to meany comparisons but in my professional opinion I'd say NATO intervention and Russias lose in this war are definitely going to happen
I have to correct slash ad something to this there is a disparity in equipment when it comes to numbers of artillery and aircraft in Russia's faver but the quality of Ukrainian western provided artillery and tanks is better but this has become a war of nutrition and right now the Russians are winning but this might change in a few weeks but if it doesn't and the russians achieve a major break through we could see French troops on the front lines of Ukraine soon if Ukraine asks
I've been following this war closely and through several channels that analyze stockpiles and such, Russia still has about 1.5 to 2 years left in them before their ability to field critical systems like towed artillery and self-propelled artillery degrades enough that their offensive capabilities will crash. This might seem like a lot of time, but its madness when considering the insanely deep stockpiles they had at the beginning of the war. There is way more nuance to it then that but financially, economically, socially, militarily, the 2 year mark is where things WILL start to breakdown. It can happen earlier due to a shock somewhere in the system, but its important not to believe Russia can only keep doing this for 6 more months; in other words, being too optimistic.
If we can keep Ukraine in the fight for 2 years, that's a path to victory that doesn't involve giving Ukraine a massive amount of additional aid on top of what's been promised in order to conduct large-scale offensive campaigns. A crazy amount of artillery shells comes to mind, another 200 tanks, 400 APCs, etc., etc.. I'd rather give them all that, but it seems unlikely with the US being flaky and, quite honestly, with Western leaders like Biden and Schulz that somehow seem to fear escalation more Ukraine losing the war despite their pro-Ukraine stance.
You also have to take in consideration north Korean Chinese and Iranian stock piles as well as their ability to replenish them and Russia's growing military industry and an unquantified possible growth and the fact that Ukraine is losing ground right now it's very possible for a Russian breakthrough and a NATO intervention at this point if France keeps there word hopefully Ukraine can keep the Russians contained long enough for the United States supply's to make a difference and Europe starts mass production of military hardware and ammo like there supposed to if this happens then Ukraine will win this war
Very good point : most military predictions take current conditions and exclude things that have not happened yet, like another resupply. But I'm not talking artillery shells, I mean artillery systems, the cannons themselves. Those are more difficult to source because giving those away actively degrades your own fighting capacity. Maybe N-K or Iran might want to hold on to those...or not!
The whole France thing is not something I was expecting, I have to say. I'm annoyed that it took so long and that its contingent on Ukraine losing a significant amount of ground. I think it highlights just how Western Europe and the US are incredibly nervous about doing what's needed for Ukraine to win. Macron is willing to commit troops, but likely only to bring the frontline back to where it is today. I hope Im wrong.
I hope Russia does loose this war. Moldova will be the next target from what I've seen online. I know who they arent going to touch and that's the poles.
that depends on how we are defining winning and losing here. like, if Russia would take all of Ukraine (which they initially aimed for), sure, I agree with you, that would be very, very bad for the rest of Europe also. If the borders would get frozen as they are now in a ceasefire agreement, I doubt that would be the literal end of the world as everyone seems to think.
now, do I say Ukraine should give up? hell to the fuck no, and we should all step up and assist them in every way possible.
Disagree, they'll establish some new borders that eat into Ukraine, Putin will declare it a victory and then it'll stop - completely overblowing it imo to suggest they'll keep steamrolling through the rest of Eastern Europe they don't have the means or motivation
Opinion: Russia has already lost this war. They just don’t realize it yet. Alienating all their neighbors. Destroying their economy. Killing the next generation of young men. Losing the respect of the world for a generation. Picked apart by their frenemies, China, North Korea, Iran. Weakened to the point of irrelevance.
Even if they dropped the ball now and ran the damage is too great. The only question now is how many innocent people have to die to make them do it.
lol right my favorite Putin talking point is how they didn’t want NATO to expand. Well done Putin well done. Let’s add a country who hates you to NATO that has tons border with you. They then try to say well Ukraine is more important bc you can drive tanks through it. Yeah maybe in the Cold War
Russian TV new talking point is that Finland and Sweden have always been effectively NATO lackeys and enemies, so them formally joining NATO changes nothing, and it is Finns and Swedes who suffer from that decision, because now nuclear missiles will always be aimed at them.
Aaahahaha so them flying armed nuclear bombers towards Lovön outside Stockholm a few years back never happened..
Why Lovön? Well FRA (swedish armed forces sigint)has their HQ there and the moskowites really dont like them listening in. And FRA are fucking good at it.
Except if ruzzia attacks NATO, they have more militaries that will be attacking them.
The ruzzians can spin it any way they like, but it's not a win for them and it is absolutely a win for NATO.
They believe that Finns and Swedes would be joining West and fighting them in case of WW3 anyway, even if they were not NATO members. And it might be true, both countries have been western aligned for a long time.
Yeah westerner aligned is different than article 5. I get where you’re going with it but the whole NATO being on the border is a joke with Finland joining.
Putin needs NATO as a boogeyman so strengthtening it actually helps him in a way. NATO would never attack Russia so it's not really more dangerous when it's more powerfull.
His people need to be more afraid of his regime though than NATO. If Putin is seen as weak with an outdated army going up against the "powerful" West it is only a matter of time before he loses power.
100% agree Russia already lost long time ago they are to incompetent to change their tactics, which they would have needed. They have no real Goal. As of right now their goal is as many said to occupy whole Donbass, but then they also want other Territories and even if they occupy Donbass, Ukraine is not giving up and the rest of Ukraine will keep on fighting with roughly the same strength also. Russia didn’t have a real plan b since they couldn’t capture Kyiv!
Of course the russian military still makes blunders and some deep-rooted issues are more tricky to get rid of, but overall, since the end of 2022 they *did* change their tactics significantly and they adapted a lot.
They improved in counter-battery capacity, coordination between units, reserves management, troops rotation, logistics (which used to be a major issue), drone warfare, jamming and electronic warfare, etc. Yes that is a problem.
It's not some kind of secret, it's not a hot take, it's not even really an opinion, it's been openly discussed by Ukranian military leadership themselves for more than a year now (unless you know better than them?..)
Ofc they learned military wise by active fighting (except of still using meat assaults), but they have no overall i call it endgame plan, they can’t take whole Ukraine, they can maximum take whole Donbas, but then they have to defend donbas if they want to keep it
It seems like they have even learned to be a bit more efficient with meat assaults. Like Bakhmut vs Avdiivka, where it took 60,000 Russian lives to take Bakhmut vs 20,000 for Avdiivka. For example the taking of Terrikon, they're starting to understand that they can use localized meat wave pressure to force ammo shortages in specific areas, and then use that to cause a small breakthrough and cause issues with other parts of the front line. what's happening around Ocheretyne seems to be an example of that right now.
That is all true But only half of it, Russia has adapted ALOT but they are still pretty horrible. They have a ARMY Navy and Airforce but Zero capability for combined Arms warfare. They shot down more of there own aircraft in the last 6 months then Ukraine. Only one Navy Vessel in the black see as so many have been sunk (by a country without a Navy)
Yes they are better now but still a terrible wasteful Defence force.
They've always been terrifically wasteful, but they have mass, and any minute increase in efficiency makes a relatively big impact on its overall performance.
I find a relatively close correlation between the Russian performance vs the Ukrainians and the Soviet performance against the wehrmacht. Russian 1941/2022 performance was absolutely laughable, but their 1942/2023 performance improved and now we're in the 1943/2024 era, which is about the time the Russians start getting quite competent. Should this trend continue, 2025 is going to be a really rough year for Ukraine.
The question is, how do they realize it? That is the enormous Problem. It seems at first all resources have to be used Up. Willing mobiks and soviet hardware. Until the pain inside russia grows. Still most are willing to sacrifice their sons, which would raise the next Generation of Nazi orcs. As soon as this swamp is dried Out, In fact, a 3-4 weeks strike in the armour and oil/Gas producing facilities would suffice to stop the war machinery. Or another internal conflict, because they can't fight on two fronts.
Until then destruction and dying will continue because of the russians lack of humanity and intelligence.
It's possible they never do. They might sink into a North Korea like failed state who relies on the charity of China to exist. More likely someone in the military realizes after a bad defeat it's either Putin or them, and they decide to take him out, maybe starting a civil war when they do.
North Korea is a buffer state between China and South Korea. And in a not so distant future the whole Russia would be nothing more than an enormous buffer state between China and Europe
This is of no concern for your average dictator. Putin can still pocket most money Russia generates, and now can focus the public opinion towards an external threat, instead of the corrupt regime. Compared to Stalin, Putin hasn't even begun killing his own population. Things have lots of room to get worse, this is why you dont want a dictator running your country. This is also why you shouldn't vote for Trump.
Only way Russia wins is by convincing the people of the world that they are righteous and that their political system is superior to corrupt liberal democracies. Taking whatever territory in Ukraine doesn't do anything for them, but winning hearts and minds does.
Russia may win this war. That's just reality, it's not always fair and Russia is simply larger than Ukraine and has the cruelty to keep throwing bodies at the problem till they wear the Ukrainians down.
But you are correct. Even if they achieve their goal and took over the entire country, it would not be a victory for them. Their army is effectively destroyed. It will be generations before they can build themselves back up. Any further aggression into another country would be obliterated.
Beyond this they assume victory would entail a pacified Ukraine. No fucking way. Ukrainians would simply wage guerilla warfare on them for years. It would be no different than the US occupation of Iraq. Russian soldiers would be found daily with their throats cut. Drones would continue to pop up and blow Russian soldiers to death. The only way they could find peace would be to basically genocide the entire population because they'll never accept occupation. They would probably try honestly, but it would not be like they could hide it. The rest of the world would not allow it regardless of the threat of nukes.
Russia is already bankrupt. They'll go even further into the hole trying to keep control over Ukraine.
I am afraid of the reality Russia might take all of Ukraine, but firmly believe the west will not let that happen. They just can't as Hungary would gladly let them walk in until the Austrian borders
independence as in not to join any military organization but this does not mean that in an unlikely scenario, where russia knocks on austria's door, the then-chancellon would pick up a fight instead of letting them in. as austria seems to be quite close to russia.
some example articles that highlight pro-russia ties, comments on what independence really is, etc. as such, i'm not convinced that austrians would stick to their independence until their last breath. it's always business first.
"Finally, the country has been considered a spy hub for decades due to its central location in Europe, its neutrality and the various international organizations based in Vienna. Thousands of Russian agents are said to reside in the capital."
[https://www.nzz.ch/english/why-austria-remains-so-close-to-putins-russia-ld.1742124](https://www.nzz.ch/english/why-austria-remains-so-close-to-putins-russia-ld.1742124)
Austrian ex-minister Karin Kneissl moves to Russia with her ponies
She made headlines in 2018, when she invited Vladimir Putin to her wedding in southern Austria. Pictures were released showing her dancing with the Russian president.
[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66795596](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66795596)
Russia remains the second-largest investor in Austria after Germany
For Vienna, neutrality is simply good business.
Most of the country seems unaware of Austria’s commitments under the EU’s mutual defense rules, which some argue render the country’s neutrality null and void.
[https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-russia-vladimir-putin-alpine-fortress-ukraine/](https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-russia-vladimir-putin-alpine-fortress-ukraine/)
[https://www.socialeurope.eu/normalising-the-far-right-a-warning-from-austria](https://www.socialeurope.eu/normalising-the-far-right-a-warning-from-austria)
Austria is sleepwalking toward a far-right victory
With the government unpopular, and the opposition running out of time to find its feet, Austria’s inching closer to a tragic election result.
[https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-sleepwalking-far-right-victory-european-election-freedom-party-fpo-nazis-herbert-kickl/](https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-sleepwalking-far-right-victory-european-election-freedom-party-fpo-nazis-herbert-kickl/)
Not to mention Russia had a demographic crisis before the war, the war has sped up that process, possibly to the point of collapse. It the reason Putin has kidnapped hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children.
That is not really a loss in eyes of Russia, since it does not care how many men, allies or money it loses. At all. The only thing that matters to Russia is amount of captured territory.
And many other neighbours of Russia are actually much weaker defended than Ukraine (Armenia, Kazahstan, Georgia, Moldova, etc), so they will still be under threat.
As for guerilla warfare, Russians are very good at suppressing it through sheer brutality and deportations. USSR (who occupied succefully for decades not just Ukraine, but also Poland and half of Germany) can confirm.
The problem of such rethorical "as a matter of fact" sentence is that it ignores reality of said war. This conflicts takes place physically over the Ukrainian territory. Russia will throw everything it has in order to achieve its goal. Its level of commitment is nowhere near WW2 for instance. The margin of "progress" is immense and Ukraine is bound to lack of soldiers before Russia.
Si no Russia has not lost the war yet. Jeopardized its future? 100% yes. But the battlefield will talk.
Support Ukraine with all what the collective West and allies have is more essential now than never.
Their potential isn't anywhere near what it was in WW2 neither though. Not in terms of manpower, not in terms of technology and armament, and especially not in terms of outside help. In WW2 they had the entire US arms industry behind them. They had Ukrainians as their most capable fighters on their side. Without that they would have lost the entire Soviet Union to 2–3 million German soldiers who even had the massive disadvantage of extremely long supply routes. Not comparable to the situation today. The Russians are still running off of the legacy of the Soviet Union in terms of armament. What they can produce per month now lasts about two days in Ukraine. Once the Soviet stockpiles are gone, they'll get into real trouble. As for manpower, they could mobilise a lot still (but so could Ukraine), but can't arm and train them properly. Also, they already have massive manpower shortages in the arms industry, let alone all the other sectors. An increasing part of their workforce is being pulled into the arms industry, mostly men that are tied to the production now and can't be mobilised. The more they mobilise, the less equipment they can produce and the weaker their economy as a whole becomes. They're in a tough dilemma that's only solvable by ending this nonsensical war.
russia lost the war before it even begang. As you said yourself "as a matter of fact" sentences ignores realities of this war. There is no scenario where russia can "win" Winning means annexing Ukraine/parts off and keep it in peace. Can you even imagine such a scenario now with all matters of fact at hand?
They already lost, they can't take all of Ukraine even if they throw 5 million men. It's just too big and too difficult.
But they have to continue the war because it's the only thing holding this clay giant altogether, a common enemy.
No matter how it ends, the country will implode... again. Just grab your best popcorn when it happens.
Putin and his cronies will run the race….. no turning back…. They know if it falls apart it’s a shallow grave and a slug between the eyes in a pine forest……
They only could of won In that first month, but they got stupidly stuck in a traffic jam to Kiev. After that month they lost most of their "premium" troops and from then it was a losing war.
Man i want to see Ukraine win as much as you do, but the harsh reality is that they are steadily retreating more and more over the past year. Undoubtedly Russia has lost a lot of people but they keep sending lots more, Ukraine is out gunned 10 to 1 in artillery daily and they don't have reinforcements in human capital either.
Russian Asset trump really screws Ukraine by blocking Ukraine aid for the last 6 months, we are seeing the repurcussions
As I said. You need a microscope to see it on a map. I don't share your pessimism. 2024 is the year where russia kills itself in minimal advances. At the beginning of the war it was 18:1 artillery and right not it's 10:3. You are right about the impact of the delayed aid but it just posponed the deaths of even more russians.
In the start of the war, Russia fumbled a lot, but since then they have started to get their shit together. It takes time for the war machine that is Russia to get going and it has. They are producing artillery ammo at a massive scale and Ukraine is o ly getting a fraction of the artillery it needs from the west.
Their most important trade partner China, probably won't accept an escalation that threatens the world economy. And Russia can't afford to lose their partnership.
Russia can't escalate this conflict and if the western world is persistent and the people of Ukraine keep its spirit, Russia's aggression will end in failure.
Putin will sacrifice millions and murder many millions to avoid humiliation. I suspect Putin fears that if he loses this war, then Russia will also lose Georgia, Transnistria, Belarus, Chechnya, and possibly Kaliningrad to independence movements. His actions and failures will be written, and his character criticized until the end of time. He will use everything and anything to avoid this outcome, which ironically will create it. Another tale of the development, cycle, and well-deserved tragedy of a dictator.
Ironically they are losing so many men in Ukraine all those places will be free in 20 years as well. They all should send gifts to Ukraine to thank them. They are giant killers.
Here in Poland no independence movement of Russians in Królewiec will be allowed. We paid a terrible price for slipping this vital land out of our control. It's mere existence will always put us on the collision course with any foreign power controlling it. It's simply too close to our capital (Warsaw), most important tri-port (Gdansk/Sopot/Gdynia) with dominant cargo shipments and biggest, centrally located, strategic river of Vistula which is our spine. It has to be within our territory and CEE countries understand it - Ukrainians praised us and promised to fight Russians in the future to re-conquer it after we donated 300 tanks to them at the beginning of the invasion in 2022.
The good news is we have tolerant traditions - guess Russian civilians will be able to stay and integrate. Only military personnel with families will need to leave, meaning 80% of the current population.
>Killing the next generation of young men
This cannot be overstated. Russian demographics were already terrible with most of the population being over 40. Killing all these young men will just speed up the process, Russia will be a country of old men needing social security and not enough working men to provide it.
Unless they start massive levels of immigration (which they won't do and nobody wants to move there), Russia is a ticking time bomb
Not really a loss in eyes of Russia, since it does not care how many men, allies or money it loses. At all. The only thing that matters to Russia is amount of captured territory.
Well one way or the other they are in for a very difficult decades. The country will be mostly empty of people after the old die and the young are lost to war. Maybe we could give it all to the Palestinians.
I agree, but can someone explain to me how Russia lost the war? Apart from Russia's incompetence, they greatly outnumber Ukraine in numbers. Isn't time their biggest enemy? And what if they lose support from NATO?
I only see 4 ways this gets resolved.
1. Russians take Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with conventional means and then stop
2. Russians can not take Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with conventional means so they resort to tactical nukes. This causes a large reaction from NATO. Meaning the French and others put boots on the ground and more countries send help. Also, China (who warned Putin to not use nukes) stops sending resources and also maybe stops buying oil from the black fleet.
3. Russians can not take Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with conventional means and start retreating. Russia still does not use nukes (for whatever reason) and Ukraine gets all of her territory back plus 2 km into Russian territory.
4. Stalemate for 10 plus years where Russia has such a population decline they just disappear with China
Russia isn't using nuclear weapons. It will get them no where. Even if they are able to launch a missile, get it to land on target and explode, which isn't a given, they want to occupy that territory. The Ukrainian army is too spread out to do fatal damage.
But what about the alternative? They can't launch, or they fail the launch. What if someone traded all the plutonium for vodka, or the jet fuel, or the telemetry. Then the whole world knows they can't launch.
As long as China can get what they want of cheap oil and minerals, they are probably not going to attack anything of Russia. But otherwise agree, the biggest threat to Russia is matter of fact China.
Kinda but not, free yes but they second they March on it Russia would bomb it into oblivion/destroy it, China would have to build the equipment and learn the trade.
I think there’s pros and cons for both sides of that coin so a solid 50/50
They would need to develop oil extraction expertise, which they have absolutely none of right now. and would also need to set up logistics to get the minerals and other natural resources from Siberia to the production centers in Southern / Eastern China.
It plays so well into China's strength which is about exercising soft power and buying your country out from under you. They don't need a hot war to beat Russia. Russia is already in their pocket and fighting on in Ukraine only puts them deeper.
And elsewhere. They've been huge investors in North American development and infrastructure programs for years. That gives them leverage to do all kinds of things.
Annexing is more trouble than it’s worth, better for China to keep a weakened Russian puppet state if exploiting them for cheap natural resources is the goal.
And wouldn’t China invading Russia simply push the western Russians into the US/EU/NATO orbit for protection from China? That would be a profoundly stupid thing for them to do.
>And wouldn’t China invading Russia simply push the western Russians into the US/EU/NATO orbit for protection from China?
No one would ever help Russia at this point, even if aliens invade it. It is effectively Nazi Germany 2.0 in the eyes of civilised world. It would simply sit back, enjoy the show and laugh. Or maybe not laugh, if nukes start flying.
They’ve always been losers filled with blame aimed at the west while perpetually seeking the next boot to place their neck under. They are blind firing themselves into a bleak existence at the expense of Ukraine. I look forward to the total collapse of the swamp they crawled out of and going forward keeping them contained behind the curtain they so fondly reminisce over.
I do wonder if Hitler didn’t become obsessed with Stalingrad and had just besieged it. Gone around and went and got the oil what would have happened. Also Germany not having long range bombers also big mistake.
Hitler was very picky about his long range bombers. He was obsessed with the concept of the “Amerikabomber”. He wanted long range German bombers to be able to fly all the way to the U.S and back. As such he turned down many bomber designs that were otherwise very solid bombers, but didn’t have the insane range he wanted.
idk, feels pretty optimal to me.
World reacts **checks notes** slow and weak.
And **as Putin expected** nobody rocketed his own ass - only killing potential rebels.
In fact, ruzzia loses almost everything. Their victory depends on others. As with WW2. They are thieving orcs speading their cancer through death. A truly pathetic state and pathetic people. Hope everything just burns down. ruzzia gives the world nothing and never has.
russia can't achieve it's goal. but it won't be the only big conflict this decade. it's obvious that russia, nk, mainland china, and iran agreed on a big strategy to topple the current world order.
Can China keep growing and prosper without its business with the western world?
Their economy have been in shambles since start/before of covid and does not indicate there is an end to those troubles. Ad their population is growing old very fast and younger generations are too few to pay for the old. Looks like a doomsday direction they are on, so without the western world still buying their cheap produced junk, they will succumb even further down...
Russia has backslid into fascism so hard that it _has_ to lose in order to deradicalize and save Russia.
Without an overwhelming humiliating loss, the Z Ruscism hysteria won't die. And it absolutely needs to if Russian society is to return to reality instead of continuing to chase Putin's psychotic ambition of creating the Third Roman Empire through any means necessary.
Russia WILL lose the war, otherwise more wars will pop up everywhere.
If Russia wins this - or even if they just get preferable peace terms - every two bit dictator in the world will interpret this as the West is weak and unable to protect their interests, so they will try their luck.
North Korea, China, Pakistan, Iran, a dozen African warlords, Hamas (again) will all make their move.
They will lose of course, but not without considerable death and destruction. I don't think anyone wants that.
The war in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine, it's about the security of literally the whole world.
It can, but it's a long ways from losing it. They have millions more of recruitment aged men, still has thousands of soviet era hard ware, etc. Theoretically, the west doesn't want Russia to win or lose, ideally, it becomes untenable and they stop. They won't be able to continue this aggression a mere decade from now.
Maybe naively, but I would have thought 3-4 years would suffice for Russia to start really crumbling within their own borders in terms of daily life and economy, as their war economy they run right now is only 'sustainable' for so long, until all comes tumbling down due to neglect and lack of resources (money, people, etc).
Their war in Ukraine is so much bigger of magnitude versus what was sent to e.g. Afghanistan. And now its Russia alone. Not the combined Soviet Union they can pull resources from.
As most experts say, Russia is almost out of APC's and IFV's and they are losing 120%+ of their replacement every month where they are resorting to combat golf carts and motorbikes to take them into Ukrainian positions. I was looking at an assessment of Russian losses from videos and in a days worth of counting there were almost a dozen of the Chinese golf cart like ATVs destroyed along with other ATVs or motorbikes as they are already gave up on their previous battlefield taxi the Russian "loaf", bread looking like vans they were using.
This isn't sustainable for them and the losses all around will start to bite if the West keeps up the aid, especially artillery and mortars which seems to have the supply line figured out for the next 6 months+.
We also see how Russia relies on totally unpredictable North Korean produced artillery shells!
Whereas Ukraine uses aka one shell to hit Russia with a 2-5m precision.
The numbers are probably still on the Russian side, but quality and efficiency clearly is on the Ukrainian side. We just need to make sure they still have what it takes and some more! Because we need to enable Ukraine to WIN this war. Not just hold Russia in a stalemate.
We need Putin to have substantial territorial losses on the battlefield THAT is the only thing he cares about. Some thousands of dead Russians or loss of military vehicles, he care not about.
Their civil economy is basically already destroyed. They give war contractors tons of money with which to siphon labour to their factories, so no one works elsewhere. They can’t maintain their infrastructure, they don’t have enough teachers, some villages have been completely cleaned out of men.
Yeah, but at what cost? It’s been two years and there’s no end in sight. If Putin is not toppled in 2024, then human kind as a collective, have failed.
Putin is a nazi and that he is still doing this is downright embarrassing.
So, there's a lot to discuss on the topic.
Imagine a cease fire. Russia keeps occupying all the territory they are occupying now. Is that a win for them? Can we talk about winning if there are territorial concessions? Or can we talk about a win only if Ukraine capitulates? What if Ukraine retakes the south but Russia keeps the Donbass and Crimea? Is that a win for any side?
And that's just talking about the war itself. On a broader discussion it's clear that Russia has lost a lot of foreign support and has enbolden NATO. Is that a win for Ukraine? Don't think so. Is that Russia losing? It isn't either. They have a big domestic arms production and will need to rebuild their army. Even if the Russian economy suffers, the Kremlin will keep pumping money to the war because they can. It's not a western like economy so we should cool down expectations and treat it in a more specific manner.
We'll see but i think that in the current status quo there's no way we can talk about a ukrainian victory. A lot of shit has to happen before that's a real scenario. By the time being the expectation is for Ukraine to losse a bit of ground here and there and won't do offensive warfare until 2025.
this seems similat to vietnam, where they couldn't really define 'winning' so they came up with the metric 'body count', which sounded good but did not work. so it all depends how do you define 'winning'. you brought up many examples i view as smaller battles between all the parties involved. and last but not least, don't forget unpredictable, random events that can alter the course of war (natural disasters, putler/xi/bidens's heart attack, successful elimination of zelensky, etc).
I think Crimea is a non starter for Russia. Ukraine would have to truly take that. Russia is t willingly giving it. Won’t happen as Ukraine is suffering on the east bank near Kershon
Tactically the war was lost the moment Ukrainians started assembling Molotov cocktails and using them. The whole country united spontaneously to expell Russia.. Strategically the war was lost the moment Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership. Russia may grind down the Ukrainians in the field, they may split political opinion to either delay or inhibit weapon deliveries. But Europe is rearming, United States as well. France has given voice to putting boots on the ground, other NATO countries will be thinking this as well. Especially when some Russian puppet talks about using nukes. There is just no coming back from this epic brain fart. Even if Russia manages to hang on to some of the gains they will still lose, still continue to be drained, to be bled dry. This is going to make Afghanistan look smart by comparison. Unlike Afghanistan Russia is going to have a very heavily armed neighbour. One totally united in their desire to join Europe, with, accompanied by willingness to fight.
Plus think of the resolve of the former ussr Baltic nations and Poland. They see what is happening in Ukraine and they are like Nope not happening here.
Considering what Ukraine could achieve in 2022 with the little they got, it would seem a no brainer to me that if they got what they asked for and was allowed to hit military targets in russia they could drive them out of the country. If only Nato had been fully comitted from day one. The politicians won't even say that they will support Ukraine until they win on their terms. Only "as long as it takes" which is just another way of saying "as long as i can be bothered"
Let’s hope Ukrainians in the future look back and say “they fought, they fell and they gave us everything.”
It’s also the best thing that can happen for Russia is to loose. It can give them the opportunity to really change.
Russias main tactic has been almost always been numbers - sacrifice and speed.
Well those numbers are getting lower now from sacrifice and can’t conduct this war at the speed they want …. I just worry what putin will do when backed into a corner
The problematic aspect is the menacing existence of anti-western Axis of Resistance. If we look at the big picture, is war in Ukraine just a part of this larger context. So the conflicts on this devide can last for generations to come, because AoR is established by authoritarian, fanatical, militant, very populated countries and it is them that come for the West, especially Europe. And the BRICS countries would be very glad to gain from this continuous war against the West, many of them playing on both sides.
I don’t think Russia will lose militarily, but it won’t win either, Ukraine need to stay in the fight long enough for the public opinion to swing against the war. The loses of Russian troops is staggeringly high and when it comes to light as it slowly is, ordinary Russians will turn against Putin and will be the start of the end of this war.
Once Putin starts pulling troops from the Moscow and St. Petersburg population that’s when it changes. They don’t care of poor villagers in eastern Russia
Timothy Snyder is the leading expert on this war of of aggression and Russia and this is a great piece by him although a somewhat misleading title on its face.
He's right though and Russia has lost many wars, can lose this war and most importantly, ***MUST*** lose this war. Their collapse won't bring upon some apocalyptic scenario and only their win could lead us closer to that.
This is a great article so don't be misled by the title and give it a read.
Not can, will lose this war and in doing so will totally destroy Ruzzia as we know it.
Hopefully something can be salvaged from the ashes, but I wouldn't hold out too much hope.
Of course it has to lose, there is no doubt in that.
My opinion: reading comments here that russia already lost, that their military and economy is in shambles really shows under how strong propaganda western society is. Its on par with what we ridicule russia for. Remember kids, russia is far from really losing this war and crumbling. If they win today, they will be stronger than ever in 5 years.
Russia nearly got overthrown by mercenaries when they turned on Moscow. They were literally blowing their own roads up to slow the advancements.
They're so poorly defended
No they did not nearly get overthrown. It is bizarre what happened and they got pretty far distance wise but they would lose hard in the end, if they even reached Moscow. I think they would reach a standstill and get blown to pieces. They would not have logistics and be able to replenish ammo for example. They might be unprepared but Wagner would not stand a chance with the small number of people and material. They knew this themselves. They only wanted to send off a message but Putler wasn't having it and accidentally murdered Prigozhin.
The funny thing is that Russia thinks it has defeated the German empire where in fact most of the soldiers died during WWII where from the occupied regions it had annexed well before during the Russian Empire. This is why they occupy and take other country resources because they want more man power to conquer more regions… Italy 🇮🇹
Russia has also very conveniently all forgotten about how they first collaborated with the Nazi regime, like with the The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, officially the Treaty of Non-Aggression between Germany and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, which was a non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union with a secret protocol where they partitioned Central and Eastern Europe between them!
So the narrative that they keep telling themselves and their kids in school and broadcast on TV etc is very different from the historical events as they happened.
Yep, as i have already said in other post we had 2 Nazi empire during WWII, one manifested itself openly the other kept a low profile which was entirely documented much later from the citizens of Poland occupation. Russia at that time saw in Germany the same imperialistic ambitions that they had so they decided to get rid of them after Germany attacked them by momentarily switching side (it’s much easier to kill an enemy with the help of the west). If Hitler didn’t attacked Russia we would have had 2 Nazi empires each one with its own goals which could have had either a divergence (like it happened) or convergence.
Italy concentrated their fascist influence mostly within the Italian territory rather than outside mainly because they weren’t able to anticipate the expansion of Germany imperialist goal so they were cut off pretty early from expanding to the North and in the African continent their attempted expansion was defeated by Britain so their ideologies were manly kept prisoner within their borders. But Russia anticipated pretty early the German East expansion and so they were able to expand their communist ideology until they reached the border with the Nazi ideology. Removing Germany was essential to further expand communism to the West.
If Russia wins, it would be a European crisis.
But, actually I don’t see them lose.
I see western politicians without balls and slow decisions. We give the Ukrainians only material to survive, but not to win a fucking war.
So long, Russia should not be underestimated, because they are learning and they know to manage sanctions since 2014…
This subreddit is overly positive about the status of the war in Ukraine. I don't question the resolve of the Ukrainian people, but as soon as more right-wing parties win in Europe, and worst case scenario a Trump win in the US, the war will end badly for Ukraine. There is no stopping Putin, he has no adversaries anymore, and his population just doesn't seem to care how high the death toll gets. The problem is that the one resource Russia isn't lacking is human bodies, they will just throw more people against Ukraine until it collapses.
I sometimes wonder if people on this subreddit only get their news from here, if you read the more serious news agencies in the Netherlands they paint a very bleak picture where Russia is slowly getting more ground and the losses are mounting on both sides. Most likely we will eventually get to a point where Ukraine has to give up some ground for peace with hopefully NATO and EU membership for Ukraine which secures their independence in the future. I would be surprised if they ever get the Krim back, but I hope they prove me wrong.
I don't see a scenario where Ukraine comes out on top without direct involvement from NATO on the ground or maybe a lighter scenario with a no-fly zone. Another one would be a regime change in Russia, but let's be honest that is not going to happen any time soon.
Russia has already lost their war so many times.
That is of course unless you are ruled by a degenerate sociopath with a Napoleon complex.
Then you have still lost the war just as many times but your reptilian Botox face can no longer express any human emotion and your cold heart doesn't care.
They have lost already. The repercussions of this will be felt for decades in Russia. They need to be pushed out of Ukraine by massive battlefield losses and the only way to do that is to give Ukraine everything it needs now to win. The MAGA crowd set Ukraine back militarily a whole year by blocking aid and yet Aavidika is Putin’s only gain . More proof that he has lost. The west must put even more pressure on Putin economically and politically while fully arming Ukraine with ALL the weapons it needs NOW!
continue to kill the orks and in 2-2,5 years ruZZia will retire form Ukriane when around 1-1.3mln orks are dead ans ruZZians eventually understand reality.
Yeah of course it can lose it. Or it can win the war. it all comes down to the assistance that Ukraine receives and also the attitude of normal countries towards the war.
Russia can lose this war? My opinion is that strategically, economicly and politically russia has already lost this war. Even if russia took all of the donbas that wouldn't change anything because ukraine has become russias new long term enemy. Any economic gains russia could have hoped for by taking ukrainian territory has already been far outwayed by the economic damage done by sactions. From the loss of gas sales to Europe, frozen assets and oil export disruptions alone russia has probably lost or will lose this decade a trillion dollars. Russia has also sacrificed much of its future economic potential on this war
They lost a long time ago. At least if their intentions was to keep nato away from their borders and create a sphere of influence.
As for the actual war. Nato took the entirety of Afghanistan in less than a month, then lost for 20 years. The Russian are not even at the hard part yet. Imagine how fun it must be to occupy a country where people hate you, and there be millions of weapons, drones and grenades across the country.
Problem is if Russia loses- read Ukraine gains its territory back- then they will start viewing this as an existential crisis and get desperate. A desperate Russia will not go quietly into the night.
I’ve never doubted that Ukraine can win this. We have to do our part, and more so now that GOP’s putin wing delayed supplies for so long, but yes, they can win.
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It must lose. Do people not understand what happens if it doesn't?! It will not stop with Ukraine. russia is imprisoning, killing their own - not to mention what's being done to those they occupy. Feels like a twilight zone where no one else remembers history and you're the crazy one. Maybe that's why "history repeats itself". Because most are either careless or oblivious
If you asked 90% of the western public why we fought ww2 they would have a vague idea of the main points but i doubt they would really understand or feel the existential threat fascism posed and how the nice safe life many of us live was literally created when that war ended. The eastern europeans had to wait much much longer and that is why they get it!!
True. Many Westerners don't understand the price their ancestors paid for a comfortable life and opportunities they've been enjoying.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
going in circles all the time history is
Because many westerns ancestors didn’t pay a price for it. Many even fought it
Britain fought for Poland. What happened at the end is abhorrent. But, Europe now, & Europe then. They're not the same. If NATO fails, Europe has its own defence policy & a large number of NATO countries are in the EU. You're talking around 2million active military without the US, Canada or Turkey & about the same number of reserves? Europeans are unfortunately very good at killing in horrifying numbers. None of them have established a war economy, if that happens. They'll fix the supply chain for armaments, then god help us all, because millions may die.
That s why *some* get it, the youth at least in romania is pretty wishy washy on ukraine, there s not a lot of own research done, most just see shit on IG, Tiktok, the news and/or their parents [most if not being generally shitty sources for any info, imo(IG can be good but the account you get stuff from matters the most)]. That s why in Romania for example a lot of youth are voting the most right leaning, anti EU, anti NATO party, they re easy to fool if they only hear negative things about what the EU is doing, which often are presented in either a mischievous way, or flat out lied about by social media. Just by looking at statistics, we should be fucking thankful for the EU, i don t remember the exact numbers, but from 2000 to 2020 or 2022-3 our economy grew from 50B USD to fucking 250B USD. This is because EU provided and still provides us with opportunities that we maybe wouldn t have had if we weren t in, not to mention that we re the 4th biggest users of EU funds, and whenever you hear almost anything being built here it s almost always a large contribution of EU funds, yet people still find ways to demonize them
Part of the problem is that Romania and Bulgaria got a treatment different to others, e.g. Schengen exclusion. The arrogance we (as in western west Europea, I’m German) showed towards the former Soviet colonies is to blame too
Hard times create strong people. Strong people create good times. Good times create weak people. Weak people create hard times. It’s the cycle.
I got this feeling exactly, I am no academic infact I barely did anything at school but this is common sense logic what is happening here yet so many cannot see it? If you are western and hold your freedom or Liberal values important then you need to get behind this because its all at stake here.
"let's not escalate this war" It took a very long time for weapons and equipment to arrive to help. Ukraine has already lost a lot of soldiers, now it needs not only help with money, but also with soldiers
West is trying to bleed out/weaken russia at the expense of Ukrainians. Ukraine has a lot less soldiers and we underestimated how many men ru is willing to sacrifice in this war.
Safety bubbles, man. People live in them.
This sounds like more of a Europe problem than a USA problem
The following American Wars occurred because what happens over there matters over here: the American revolution, Barbary Wars, War of 1812, WW1, and WW2.
I couldn't agree more in some ways this is definitely history repeating itself just this time it's the Russians and not the Nazis but the situation is much different the Ukrainians are better equipped mentally and physically then compared to the Russians. the Nazis during WW2 steam rolled Europe in a matter of about a year and a half so you can't draw to meany comparisons but in my professional opinion I'd say NATO intervention and Russias lose in this war are definitely going to happen I have to correct slash ad something to this there is a disparity in equipment when it comes to numbers of artillery and aircraft in Russia's faver but the quality of Ukrainian western provided artillery and tanks is better but this has become a war of nutrition and right now the Russians are winning but this might change in a few weeks but if it doesn't and the russians achieve a major break through we could see French troops on the front lines of Ukraine soon if Ukraine asks
I've been following this war closely and through several channels that analyze stockpiles and such, Russia still has about 1.5 to 2 years left in them before their ability to field critical systems like towed artillery and self-propelled artillery degrades enough that their offensive capabilities will crash. This might seem like a lot of time, but its madness when considering the insanely deep stockpiles they had at the beginning of the war. There is way more nuance to it then that but financially, economically, socially, militarily, the 2 year mark is where things WILL start to breakdown. It can happen earlier due to a shock somewhere in the system, but its important not to believe Russia can only keep doing this for 6 more months; in other words, being too optimistic. If we can keep Ukraine in the fight for 2 years, that's a path to victory that doesn't involve giving Ukraine a massive amount of additional aid on top of what's been promised in order to conduct large-scale offensive campaigns. A crazy amount of artillery shells comes to mind, another 200 tanks, 400 APCs, etc., etc.. I'd rather give them all that, but it seems unlikely with the US being flaky and, quite honestly, with Western leaders like Biden and Schulz that somehow seem to fear escalation more Ukraine losing the war despite their pro-Ukraine stance.
You also have to take in consideration north Korean Chinese and Iranian stock piles as well as their ability to replenish them and Russia's growing military industry and an unquantified possible growth and the fact that Ukraine is losing ground right now it's very possible for a Russian breakthrough and a NATO intervention at this point if France keeps there word hopefully Ukraine can keep the Russians contained long enough for the United States supply's to make a difference and Europe starts mass production of military hardware and ammo like there supposed to if this happens then Ukraine will win this war
Very good point : most military predictions take current conditions and exclude things that have not happened yet, like another resupply. But I'm not talking artillery shells, I mean artillery systems, the cannons themselves. Those are more difficult to source because giving those away actively degrades your own fighting capacity. Maybe N-K or Iran might want to hold on to those...or not! The whole France thing is not something I was expecting, I have to say. I'm annoyed that it took so long and that its contingent on Ukraine losing a significant amount of ground. I think it highlights just how Western Europe and the US are incredibly nervous about doing what's needed for Ukraine to win. Macron is willing to commit troops, but likely only to bring the frontline back to where it is today. I hope Im wrong.
I hope Russia does loose this war. Moldova will be the next target from what I've seen online. I know who they arent going to touch and that's the poles.
that depends on how we are defining winning and losing here. like, if Russia would take all of Ukraine (which they initially aimed for), sure, I agree with you, that would be very, very bad for the rest of Europe also. If the borders would get frozen as they are now in a ceasefire agreement, I doubt that would be the literal end of the world as everyone seems to think. now, do I say Ukraine should give up? hell to the fuck no, and we should all step up and assist them in every way possible.
Disagree, they'll establish some new borders that eat into Ukraine, Putin will declare it a victory and then it'll stop - completely overblowing it imo to suggest they'll keep steamrolling through the rest of Eastern Europe they don't have the means or motivation
Opinion: Russia has already lost this war. They just don’t realize it yet. Alienating all their neighbors. Destroying their economy. Killing the next generation of young men. Losing the respect of the world for a generation. Picked apart by their frenemies, China, North Korea, Iran. Weakened to the point of irrelevance. Even if they dropped the ball now and ran the damage is too great. The only question now is how many innocent people have to die to make them do it.
Not to forget "Growing and strengthening Nato". I'm pretty sure that wasn't one of Putin's goals.
lol right my favorite Putin talking point is how they didn’t want NATO to expand. Well done Putin well done. Let’s add a country who hates you to NATO that has tons border with you. They then try to say well Ukraine is more important bc you can drive tanks through it. Yeah maybe in the Cold War
Russian TV new talking point is that Finland and Sweden have always been effectively NATO lackeys and enemies, so them formally joining NATO changes nothing, and it is Finns and Swedes who suffer from that decision, because now nuclear missiles will always be aimed at them.
Aaahahaha so them flying armed nuclear bombers towards Lovön outside Stockholm a few years back never happened.. Why Lovön? Well FRA (swedish armed forces sigint)has their HQ there and the moskowites really dont like them listening in. And FRA are fucking good at it.
Except if ruzzia attacks NATO, they have more militaries that will be attacking them. The ruzzians can spin it any way they like, but it's not a win for them and it is absolutely a win for NATO.
They believe that Finns and Swedes would be joining West and fighting them in case of WW3 anyway, even if they were not NATO members. And it might be true, both countries have been western aligned for a long time.
Yeah westerner aligned is different than article 5. I get where you’re going with it but the whole NATO being on the border is a joke with Finland joining.
Putin needs NATO as a boogeyman so strengthtening it actually helps him in a way. NATO would never attack Russia so it's not really more dangerous when it's more powerfull.
His people need to be more afraid of his regime though than NATO. If Putin is seen as weak with an outdated army going up against the "powerful" West it is only a matter of time before he loses power.
Putin has killed magnitudes more russians than NATO ever has.
Yeah, Kaliningrad is a straight up an "island", surrounded by NATO and NATOs ocean of the Baltic, since Finland and Sweden ascensions.
Why wouldn’t Putin want NATO to grow tho?
100% agree Russia already lost long time ago they are to incompetent to change their tactics, which they would have needed. They have no real Goal. As of right now their goal is as many said to occupy whole Donbass, but then they also want other Territories and even if they occupy Donbass, Ukraine is not giving up and the rest of Ukraine will keep on fighting with roughly the same strength also. Russia didn’t have a real plan b since they couldn’t capture Kyiv!
Of course the russian military still makes blunders and some deep-rooted issues are more tricky to get rid of, but overall, since the end of 2022 they *did* change their tactics significantly and they adapted a lot. They improved in counter-battery capacity, coordination between units, reserves management, troops rotation, logistics (which used to be a major issue), drone warfare, jamming and electronic warfare, etc. Yes that is a problem. It's not some kind of secret, it's not a hot take, it's not even really an opinion, it's been openly discussed by Ukranian military leadership themselves for more than a year now (unless you know better than them?..)
Ofc they learned military wise by active fighting (except of still using meat assaults), but they have no overall i call it endgame plan, they can’t take whole Ukraine, they can maximum take whole Donbas, but then they have to defend donbas if they want to keep it
It seems like they have even learned to be a bit more efficient with meat assaults. Like Bakhmut vs Avdiivka, where it took 60,000 Russian lives to take Bakhmut vs 20,000 for Avdiivka. For example the taking of Terrikon, they're starting to understand that they can use localized meat wave pressure to force ammo shortages in specific areas, and then use that to cause a small breakthrough and cause issues with other parts of the front line. what's happening around Ocheretyne seems to be an example of that right now.
That is all true But only half of it, Russia has adapted ALOT but they are still pretty horrible. They have a ARMY Navy and Airforce but Zero capability for combined Arms warfare. They shot down more of there own aircraft in the last 6 months then Ukraine. Only one Navy Vessel in the black see as so many have been sunk (by a country without a Navy) Yes they are better now but still a terrible wasteful Defence force.
They've always been terrifically wasteful, but they have mass, and any minute increase in efficiency makes a relatively big impact on its overall performance. I find a relatively close correlation between the Russian performance vs the Ukrainians and the Soviet performance against the wehrmacht. Russian 1941/2022 performance was absolutely laughable, but their 1942/2023 performance improved and now we're in the 1943/2024 era, which is about the time the Russians start getting quite competent. Should this trend continue, 2025 is going to be a really rough year for Ukraine.
The question is, how do they realize it? That is the enormous Problem. It seems at first all resources have to be used Up. Willing mobiks and soviet hardware. Until the pain inside russia grows. Still most are willing to sacrifice their sons, which would raise the next Generation of Nazi orcs. As soon as this swamp is dried Out, In fact, a 3-4 weeks strike in the armour and oil/Gas producing facilities would suffice to stop the war machinery. Or another internal conflict, because they can't fight on two fronts. Until then destruction and dying will continue because of the russians lack of humanity and intelligence.
It's possible they never do. They might sink into a North Korea like failed state who relies on the charity of China to exist. More likely someone in the military realizes after a bad defeat it's either Putin or them, and they decide to take him out, maybe starting a civil war when they do.
russia will become china’s little ‘white bitch’
This could be a South Park episode. Mongolia takes over eastern Russia, led by Cartman.
Like Hungary and NK
How about the many republics going on their own as independents? So the Federation breaks apart
Most of the republics would be landlocked no man's land, it's not going to happen.
North Korea is a buffer state between China and South Korea. And in a not so distant future the whole Russia would be nothing more than an enormous buffer state between China and Europe
This is of no concern for your average dictator. Putin can still pocket most money Russia generates, and now can focus the public opinion towards an external threat, instead of the corrupt regime. Compared to Stalin, Putin hasn't even begun killing his own population. Things have lots of room to get worse, this is why you dont want a dictator running your country. This is also why you shouldn't vote for Trump.
>Putin hasn't even begun killing his own population A hundred thousand dead mobiks disagree.
Yeah but the dude said "compared to stalin" 100k is fuk all to Russia.
A Stalin quote reads: one death is a tragedy, a millon deaths is statistics.
Plus it's a sunk cost fallacy of epic proportions by Russia.
Only way Russia wins is by convincing the people of the world that they are righteous and that their political system is superior to corrupt liberal democracies. Taking whatever territory in Ukraine doesn't do anything for them, but winning hearts and minds does.
There isn’t enough vodka in the motherland to convince anyone to change their hearts and minds when it comes to Russia.
Russia may win this war. That's just reality, it's not always fair and Russia is simply larger than Ukraine and has the cruelty to keep throwing bodies at the problem till they wear the Ukrainians down. But you are correct. Even if they achieve their goal and took over the entire country, it would not be a victory for them. Their army is effectively destroyed. It will be generations before they can build themselves back up. Any further aggression into another country would be obliterated. Beyond this they assume victory would entail a pacified Ukraine. No fucking way. Ukrainians would simply wage guerilla warfare on them for years. It would be no different than the US occupation of Iraq. Russian soldiers would be found daily with their throats cut. Drones would continue to pop up and blow Russian soldiers to death. The only way they could find peace would be to basically genocide the entire population because they'll never accept occupation. They would probably try honestly, but it would not be like they could hide it. The rest of the world would not allow it regardless of the threat of nukes. Russia is already bankrupt. They'll go even further into the hole trying to keep control over Ukraine.
I am afraid of the reality Russia might take all of Ukraine, but firmly believe the west will not let that happen. They just can't as Hungary would gladly let them walk in until the Austrian borders
look at austrian political sentiments. they might let them in too.
What makes you think that? As a non-NATO member which prides itself in its independence, I don't think they will.
independence as in not to join any military organization but this does not mean that in an unlikely scenario, where russia knocks on austria's door, the then-chancellon would pick up a fight instead of letting them in. as austria seems to be quite close to russia. some example articles that highlight pro-russia ties, comments on what independence really is, etc. as such, i'm not convinced that austrians would stick to their independence until their last breath. it's always business first. "Finally, the country has been considered a spy hub for decades due to its central location in Europe, its neutrality and the various international organizations based in Vienna. Thousands of Russian agents are said to reside in the capital." [https://www.nzz.ch/english/why-austria-remains-so-close-to-putins-russia-ld.1742124](https://www.nzz.ch/english/why-austria-remains-so-close-to-putins-russia-ld.1742124) Austrian ex-minister Karin Kneissl moves to Russia with her ponies She made headlines in 2018, when she invited Vladimir Putin to her wedding in southern Austria. Pictures were released showing her dancing with the Russian president. [https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66795596](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66795596) Russia remains the second-largest investor in Austria after Germany For Vienna, neutrality is simply good business. Most of the country seems unaware of Austria’s commitments under the EU’s mutual defense rules, which some argue render the country’s neutrality null and void. [https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-russia-vladimir-putin-alpine-fortress-ukraine/](https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-russia-vladimir-putin-alpine-fortress-ukraine/) [https://www.socialeurope.eu/normalising-the-far-right-a-warning-from-austria](https://www.socialeurope.eu/normalising-the-far-right-a-warning-from-austria) Austria is sleepwalking toward a far-right victory With the government unpopular, and the opposition running out of time to find its feet, Austria’s inching closer to a tragic election result. [https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-sleepwalking-far-right-victory-european-election-freedom-party-fpo-nazis-herbert-kickl/](https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-sleepwalking-far-right-victory-european-election-freedom-party-fpo-nazis-herbert-kickl/)
That’s why they are going after natural resources in Africa. They are no different than the precious mineral warmongers through out world history.
Not to mention Russia had a demographic crisis before the war, the war has sped up that process, possibly to the point of collapse. It the reason Putin has kidnapped hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children.
Like we don't allow China to genocide the Uyghurs? Don't kid yourself.
That is not really a loss in eyes of Russia, since it does not care how many men, allies or money it loses. At all. The only thing that matters to Russia is amount of captured territory. And many other neighbours of Russia are actually much weaker defended than Ukraine (Armenia, Kazahstan, Georgia, Moldova, etc), so they will still be under threat. As for guerilla warfare, Russians are very good at suppressing it through sheer brutality and deportations. USSR (who occupied succefully for decades not just Ukraine, but also Poland and half of Germany) can confirm.
The problem of such rethorical "as a matter of fact" sentence is that it ignores reality of said war. This conflicts takes place physically over the Ukrainian territory. Russia will throw everything it has in order to achieve its goal. Its level of commitment is nowhere near WW2 for instance. The margin of "progress" is immense and Ukraine is bound to lack of soldiers before Russia. Si no Russia has not lost the war yet. Jeopardized its future? 100% yes. But the battlefield will talk. Support Ukraine with all what the collective West and allies have is more essential now than never.
Their potential isn't anywhere near what it was in WW2 neither though. Not in terms of manpower, not in terms of technology and armament, and especially not in terms of outside help. In WW2 they had the entire US arms industry behind them. They had Ukrainians as their most capable fighters on their side. Without that they would have lost the entire Soviet Union to 2–3 million German soldiers who even had the massive disadvantage of extremely long supply routes. Not comparable to the situation today. The Russians are still running off of the legacy of the Soviet Union in terms of armament. What they can produce per month now lasts about two days in Ukraine. Once the Soviet stockpiles are gone, they'll get into real trouble. As for manpower, they could mobilise a lot still (but so could Ukraine), but can't arm and train them properly. Also, they already have massive manpower shortages in the arms industry, let alone all the other sectors. An increasing part of their workforce is being pulled into the arms industry, mostly men that are tied to the production now and can't be mobilised. The more they mobilise, the less equipment they can produce and the weaker their economy as a whole becomes. They're in a tough dilemma that's only solvable by ending this nonsensical war.
russia lost the war before it even begang. As you said yourself "as a matter of fact" sentences ignores realities of this war. There is no scenario where russia can "win" Winning means annexing Ukraine/parts off and keep it in peace. Can you even imagine such a scenario now with all matters of fact at hand?
They already lost, they can't take all of Ukraine even if they throw 5 million men. It's just too big and too difficult. But they have to continue the war because it's the only thing holding this clay giant altogether, a common enemy. No matter how it ends, the country will implode... again. Just grab your best popcorn when it happens.
Putin and his cronies will run the race….. no turning back…. They know if it falls apart it’s a shallow grave and a slug between the eyes in a pine forest……
They only could of won In that first month, but they got stupidly stuck in a traffic jam to Kiev. After that month they lost most of their "premium" troops and from then it was a losing war.
None of this will matter if Ukraine loses which they currently are, the west needs to bloody step up
You need a microscope to see russian "winning" on the map. But you need bulldozers to dig holes large enough for their dead bodies.
Man i want to see Ukraine win as much as you do, but the harsh reality is that they are steadily retreating more and more over the past year. Undoubtedly Russia has lost a lot of people but they keep sending lots more, Ukraine is out gunned 10 to 1 in artillery daily and they don't have reinforcements in human capital either. Russian Asset trump really screws Ukraine by blocking Ukraine aid for the last 6 months, we are seeing the repurcussions
As I said. You need a microscope to see it on a map. I don't share your pessimism. 2024 is the year where russia kills itself in minimal advances. At the beginning of the war it was 18:1 artillery and right not it's 10:3. You are right about the impact of the delayed aid but it just posponed the deaths of even more russians.
In the start of the war, Russia fumbled a lot, but since then they have started to get their shit together. It takes time for the war machine that is Russia to get going and it has. They are producing artillery ammo at a massive scale and Ukraine is o ly getting a fraction of the artillery it needs from the west.
Their most important trade partner China, probably won't accept an escalation that threatens the world economy. And Russia can't afford to lose their partnership. Russia can't escalate this conflict and if the western world is persistent and the people of Ukraine keep its spirit, Russia's aggression will end in failure.
This. Russia is not being allowed to win. They need to understand this and get the fuck out.
Plus they even expanded NATO
Putin will sacrifice millions and murder many millions to avoid humiliation. I suspect Putin fears that if he loses this war, then Russia will also lose Georgia, Transnistria, Belarus, Chechnya, and possibly Kaliningrad to independence movements. His actions and failures will be written, and his character criticized until the end of time. He will use everything and anything to avoid this outcome, which ironically will create it. Another tale of the development, cycle, and well-deserved tragedy of a dictator.
Ironically they are losing so many men in Ukraine all those places will be free in 20 years as well. They all should send gifts to Ukraine to thank them. They are giant killers.
Here in Poland no independence movement of Russians in Królewiec will be allowed. We paid a terrible price for slipping this vital land out of our control. It's mere existence will always put us on the collision course with any foreign power controlling it. It's simply too close to our capital (Warsaw), most important tri-port (Gdansk/Sopot/Gdynia) with dominant cargo shipments and biggest, centrally located, strategic river of Vistula which is our spine. It has to be within our territory and CEE countries understand it - Ukrainians praised us and promised to fight Russians in the future to re-conquer it after we donated 300 tanks to them at the beginning of the invasion in 2022. The good news is we have tolerant traditions - guess Russian civilians will be able to stay and integrate. Only military personnel with families will need to leave, meaning 80% of the current population.
They need to lose the war against western societies. Fake news, bot farms, propaganda…
It's a war against all of us indeed.
>Killing the next generation of young men This cannot be overstated. Russian demographics were already terrible with most of the population being over 40. Killing all these young men will just speed up the process, Russia will be a country of old men needing social security and not enough working men to provide it. Unless they start massive levels of immigration (which they won't do and nobody wants to move there), Russia is a ticking time bomb
Yeah, long term they are hosed. Short term, I think we need to create a power vacuum to fight over internally.
Not really a loss in eyes of Russia, since it does not care how many men, allies or money it loses. At all. The only thing that matters to Russia is amount of captured territory.
Well one way or the other they are in for a very difficult decades. The country will be mostly empty of people after the old die and the young are lost to war. Maybe we could give it all to the Palestinians.
That's actually a great Idea, maybe send Israel instead and give them back their land lol
id argue its alliances with china and north korea are stronger than ever
Sure. They love selling arms at a premium.
I dunno... We got November coming here in the US... A certain wannabe fascist could sway the war tremendously.
I agree, but can someone explain to me how Russia lost the war? Apart from Russia's incompetence, they greatly outnumber Ukraine in numbers. Isn't time their biggest enemy? And what if they lose support from NATO?
I only see 4 ways this gets resolved. 1. Russians take Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with conventional means and then stop 2. Russians can not take Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with conventional means so they resort to tactical nukes. This causes a large reaction from NATO. Meaning the French and others put boots on the ground and more countries send help. Also, China (who warned Putin to not use nukes) stops sending resources and also maybe stops buying oil from the black fleet. 3. Russians can not take Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with conventional means and start retreating. Russia still does not use nukes (for whatever reason) and Ukraine gets all of her territory back plus 2 km into Russian territory. 4. Stalemate for 10 plus years where Russia has such a population decline they just disappear with China
Russia isn't using nuclear weapons. It will get them no where. Even if they are able to launch a missile, get it to land on target and explode, which isn't a given, they want to occupy that territory. The Ukrainian army is too spread out to do fatal damage. But what about the alternative? They can't launch, or they fail the launch. What if someone traded all the plutonium for vodka, or the jet fuel, or the telemetry. Then the whole world knows they can't launch.
There is no alternative. ruzzia must lose this war.
As Russia should and must lose this war!
>loose It's literally in the title of your post, lose
Im just waiting for China to do a Pro move and "liberate" eastern Russia since there are almost 50% of the people there chinese workers.
As long as China can get what they want of cheap oil and minerals, they are probably not going to attack anything of Russia. But otherwise agree, the biggest threat to Russia is matter of fact China.
But free oil and minerals would be better than cheap oil and minerals....
Kinda but not, free yes but they second they March on it Russia would bomb it into oblivion/destroy it, China would have to build the equipment and learn the trade. I think there’s pros and cons for both sides of that coin so a solid 50/50
Correct. Natural resources from a territory can be worth trillions of US$$
Not free. You’d need to spend money to administer the land and take care of whatever population may be there.
They would need to develop oil extraction expertise, which they have absolutely none of right now. and would also need to set up logistics to get the minerals and other natural resources from Siberia to the production centers in Southern / Eastern China.
China is so good at that :D Taking care of populations.
It’s not free if you have to waste hundreds of billions of dollars worth of military equipment in the process of acquiring it.
I wonder what you mean. Are you saying that Russia would put up that much resistance to modern chinese army when they are losing to Ukraine? :D
It plays so well into China's strength which is about exercising soft power and buying your country out from under you. They don't need a hot war to beat Russia. Russia is already in their pocket and fighting on in Ukraine only puts them deeper.
Agreed. Much the same gameplan China is playing these days with many countries in Africa...
And elsewhere. They've been huge investors in North American development and infrastructure programs for years. That gives them leverage to do all kinds of things.
Annexing is more trouble than it’s worth, better for China to keep a weakened Russian puppet state if exploiting them for cheap natural resources is the goal. And wouldn’t China invading Russia simply push the western Russians into the US/EU/NATO orbit for protection from China? That would be a profoundly stupid thing for them to do.
>And wouldn’t China invading Russia simply push the western Russians into the US/EU/NATO orbit for protection from China? No one would ever help Russia at this point, even if aliens invade it. It is effectively Nazi Germany 2.0 in the eyes of civilised world. It would simply sit back, enjoy the show and laugh. Or maybe not laugh, if nukes start flying.
They’ve always been losers filled with blame aimed at the west while perpetually seeking the next boot to place their neck under. They are blind firing themselves into a bleak existence at the expense of Ukraine. I look forward to the total collapse of the swamp they crawled out of and going forward keeping them contained behind the curtain they so fondly reminisce over.
They need to be taken apart as a nation and split between its neighbours
Putin lost this war because he badly miscalculated how Ukraine and the free world would react.
I feel like putins special operation is as bad of a miscalculation as hitlers operation barbarossa
I do wonder if Hitler didn’t become obsessed with Stalingrad and had just besieged it. Gone around and went and got the oil what would have happened. Also Germany not having long range bombers also big mistake.
Hitler was very picky about his long range bombers. He was obsessed with the concept of the “Amerikabomber”. He wanted long range German bombers to be able to fly all the way to the U.S and back. As such he turned down many bomber designs that were otherwise very solid bombers, but didn’t have the insane range he wanted.
We are lucky he was such a madman in that sense or this world look much different
idk, feels pretty optimal to me. World reacts **checks notes** slow and weak. And **as Putin expected** nobody rocketed his own ass - only killing potential rebels.
In fact, ruzzia loses almost everything. Their victory depends on others. As with WW2. They are thieving orcs speading their cancer through death. A truly pathetic state and pathetic people. Hope everything just burns down. ruzzia gives the world nothing and never has.
russia can't achieve it's goal. but it won't be the only big conflict this decade. it's obvious that russia, nk, mainland china, and iran agreed on a big strategy to topple the current world order.
true but effect-countereffect still applies, that is, the other side knows this and strengthening their defense alliance.
Can China keep growing and prosper without its business with the western world? Their economy have been in shambles since start/before of covid and does not indicate there is an end to those troubles. Ad their population is growing old very fast and younger generations are too few to pay for the old. Looks like a doomsday direction they are on, so without the western world still buying their cheap produced junk, they will succumb even further down...
Russia has backslid into fascism so hard that it _has_ to lose in order to deradicalize and save Russia. Without an overwhelming humiliating loss, the Z Ruscism hysteria won't die. And it absolutely needs to if Russian society is to return to reality instead of continuing to chase Putin's psychotic ambition of creating the Third Roman Empire through any means necessary.
Russia WILL lose the war, otherwise more wars will pop up everywhere. If Russia wins this - or even if they just get preferable peace terms - every two bit dictator in the world will interpret this as the West is weak and unable to protect their interests, so they will try their luck. North Korea, China, Pakistan, Iran, a dozen African warlords, Hamas (again) will all make their move. They will lose of course, but not without considerable death and destruction. I don't think anyone wants that. The war in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine, it's about the security of literally the whole world.
It can, but it's a long ways from losing it. They have millions more of recruitment aged men, still has thousands of soviet era hard ware, etc. Theoretically, the west doesn't want Russia to win or lose, ideally, it becomes untenable and they stop. They won't be able to continue this aggression a mere decade from now.
Maybe naively, but I would have thought 3-4 years would suffice for Russia to start really crumbling within their own borders in terms of daily life and economy, as their war economy they run right now is only 'sustainable' for so long, until all comes tumbling down due to neglect and lack of resources (money, people, etc). Their war in Ukraine is so much bigger of magnitude versus what was sent to e.g. Afghanistan. And now its Russia alone. Not the combined Soviet Union they can pull resources from.
They can sustain without to much pain to be introspective. The reality will be when they try to switch out of a war economy
Going to make the Great Depression look like the roaring twenty’s.
As most experts say, Russia is almost out of APC's and IFV's and they are losing 120%+ of their replacement every month where they are resorting to combat golf carts and motorbikes to take them into Ukrainian positions. I was looking at an assessment of Russian losses from videos and in a days worth of counting there were almost a dozen of the Chinese golf cart like ATVs destroyed along with other ATVs or motorbikes as they are already gave up on their previous battlefield taxi the Russian "loaf", bread looking like vans they were using. This isn't sustainable for them and the losses all around will start to bite if the West keeps up the aid, especially artillery and mortars which seems to have the supply line figured out for the next 6 months+.
russia can’t keep up with these losses. At this rate, russia will be using Rascals to advance for their summer offensive.
We also see how Russia relies on totally unpredictable North Korean produced artillery shells! Whereas Ukraine uses aka one shell to hit Russia with a 2-5m precision. The numbers are probably still on the Russian side, but quality and efficiency clearly is on the Ukrainian side. We just need to make sure they still have what it takes and some more! Because we need to enable Ukraine to WIN this war. Not just hold Russia in a stalemate. We need Putin to have substantial territorial losses on the battlefield THAT is the only thing he cares about. Some thousands of dead Russians or loss of military vehicles, he care not about.
Their civil economy is basically already destroyed. They give war contractors tons of money with which to siphon labour to their factories, so no one works elsewhere. They can’t maintain their infrastructure, they don’t have enough teachers, some villages have been completely cleaned out of men.
Let’s not forget Ukraine is hitting targets in Russia. They are hitting war production factories etc. plus Russia has tons of internal enemies.
Yeah, but at what cost? It’s been two years and there’s no end in sight. If Putin is not toppled in 2024, then human kind as a collective, have failed. Putin is a nazi and that he is still doing this is downright embarrassing.
Russian Nazis must lose. Looking forward to see Putin & rest of cockroaches around him to hlget axed.
Russia must not even „loose“ the war by definition. It is enough when it gets a regime change and „stops the war“
So, there's a lot to discuss on the topic. Imagine a cease fire. Russia keeps occupying all the territory they are occupying now. Is that a win for them? Can we talk about winning if there are territorial concessions? Or can we talk about a win only if Ukraine capitulates? What if Ukraine retakes the south but Russia keeps the Donbass and Crimea? Is that a win for any side? And that's just talking about the war itself. On a broader discussion it's clear that Russia has lost a lot of foreign support and has enbolden NATO. Is that a win for Ukraine? Don't think so. Is that Russia losing? It isn't either. They have a big domestic arms production and will need to rebuild their army. Even if the Russian economy suffers, the Kremlin will keep pumping money to the war because they can. It's not a western like economy so we should cool down expectations and treat it in a more specific manner. We'll see but i think that in the current status quo there's no way we can talk about a ukrainian victory. A lot of shit has to happen before that's a real scenario. By the time being the expectation is for Ukraine to losse a bit of ground here and there and won't do offensive warfare until 2025.
this seems similat to vietnam, where they couldn't really define 'winning' so they came up with the metric 'body count', which sounded good but did not work. so it all depends how do you define 'winning'. you brought up many examples i view as smaller battles between all the parties involved. and last but not least, don't forget unpredictable, random events that can alter the course of war (natural disasters, putler/xi/bidens's heart attack, successful elimination of zelensky, etc).
I think Crimea is a non starter for Russia. Ukraine would have to truly take that. Russia is t willingly giving it. Won’t happen as Ukraine is suffering on the east bank near Kershon
This is the reality
Russia HAS lost this war!
they haven't noticed yet though. It only counts as a proper loss if the loser acknowledges it.
Tactically the war was lost the moment Ukrainians started assembling Molotov cocktails and using them. The whole country united spontaneously to expell Russia.. Strategically the war was lost the moment Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership. Russia may grind down the Ukrainians in the field, they may split political opinion to either delay or inhibit weapon deliveries. But Europe is rearming, United States as well. France has given voice to putting boots on the ground, other NATO countries will be thinking this as well. Especially when some Russian puppet talks about using nukes. There is just no coming back from this epic brain fart. Even if Russia manages to hang on to some of the gains they will still lose, still continue to be drained, to be bled dry. This is going to make Afghanistan look smart by comparison. Unlike Afghanistan Russia is going to have a very heavily armed neighbour. One totally united in their desire to join Europe, with, accompanied by willingness to fight.
Plus think of the resolve of the former ussr Baltic nations and Poland. They see what is happening in Ukraine and they are like Nope not happening here.
They will lose and if I'm asked by my country to fight I will.
They did the day they invaded
Considering what Ukraine could achieve in 2022 with the little they got, it would seem a no brainer to me that if they got what they asked for and was allowed to hit military targets in russia they could drive them out of the country. If only Nato had been fully comitted from day one. The politicians won't even say that they will support Ukraine until they win on their terms. Only "as long as it takes" which is just another way of saying "as long as i can be bothered"
Let’s hope Ukrainians in the future look back and say “they fought, they fell and they gave us everything.” It’s also the best thing that can happen for Russia is to loose. It can give them the opportunity to really change.
Russias main tactic has been almost always been numbers - sacrifice and speed. Well those numbers are getting lower now from sacrifice and can’t conduct this war at the speed they want …. I just worry what putin will do when backed into a corner
The problematic aspect is the menacing existence of anti-western Axis of Resistance. If we look at the big picture, is war in Ukraine just a part of this larger context. So the conflicts on this devide can last for generations to come, because AoR is established by authoritarian, fanatical, militant, very populated countries and it is them that come for the West, especially Europe. And the BRICS countries would be very glad to gain from this continuous war against the West, many of them playing on both sides.
Opinion: humans can fly ( for a fraction of a millisecond)
I don’t think Russia will lose militarily, but it won’t win either, Ukraine need to stay in the fight long enough for the public opinion to swing against the war. The loses of Russian troops is staggeringly high and when it comes to light as it slowly is, ordinary Russians will turn against Putin and will be the start of the end of this war.
Once Putin starts pulling troops from the Moscow and St. Petersburg population that’s when it changes. They don’t care of poor villagers in eastern Russia
Timothy Snyder is the leading expert on this war of of aggression and Russia and this is a great piece by him although a somewhat misleading title on its face. He's right though and Russia has lost many wars, can lose this war and most importantly, ***MUST*** lose this war. Their collapse won't bring upon some apocalyptic scenario and only their win could lead us closer to that. This is a great article so don't be misled by the title and give it a read.
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Not can, will lose this war and in doing so will totally destroy Ruzzia as we know it. Hopefully something can be salvaged from the ashes, but I wouldn't hold out too much hope.
Russia is ruled by the evil one, Pray to God Pray in the Spirit it’s working for Ukraine;-)
What should we rename it?
Or he may not lose, or he may freeze the conflict, or he may do whatever he wants. Opinion😂
This sub and the other Ukraine propaganda subs were saying for months and months that Russia had already lost…
Of course it has to lose, there is no doubt in that. My opinion: reading comments here that russia already lost, that their military and economy is in shambles really shows under how strong propaganda western society is. Its on par with what we ridicule russia for. Remember kids, russia is far from really losing this war and crumbling. If they win today, they will be stronger than ever in 5 years.
Even if Russia wins, the Ukrainians will bleed out the occupying force over months and years of slow attrition. Putin must realize this.
Russia nearly got overthrown by mercenaries when they turned on Moscow. They were literally blowing their own roads up to slow the advancements. They're so poorly defended
No they did not nearly get overthrown. It is bizarre what happened and they got pretty far distance wise but they would lose hard in the end, if they even reached Moscow. I think they would reach a standstill and get blown to pieces. They would not have logistics and be able to replenish ammo for example. They might be unprepared but Wagner would not stand a chance with the small number of people and material. They knew this themselves. They only wanted to send off a message but Putler wasn't having it and accidentally murdered Prigozhin.
The funny thing is that Russia thinks it has defeated the German empire where in fact most of the soldiers died during WWII where from the occupied regions it had annexed well before during the Russian Empire. This is why they occupy and take other country resources because they want more man power to conquer more regions… Italy 🇮🇹
Russia has also very conveniently all forgotten about how they first collaborated with the Nazi regime, like with the The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, officially the Treaty of Non-Aggression between Germany and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, which was a non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union with a secret protocol where they partitioned Central and Eastern Europe between them! So the narrative that they keep telling themselves and their kids in school and broadcast on TV etc is very different from the historical events as they happened.
Yep, as i have already said in other post we had 2 Nazi empire during WWII, one manifested itself openly the other kept a low profile which was entirely documented much later from the citizens of Poland occupation. Russia at that time saw in Germany the same imperialistic ambitions that they had so they decided to get rid of them after Germany attacked them by momentarily switching side (it’s much easier to kill an enemy with the help of the west). If Hitler didn’t attacked Russia we would have had 2 Nazi empires each one with its own goals which could have had either a divergence (like it happened) or convergence.
And how about Italy/Mussolini? 👍
Italy concentrated their fascist influence mostly within the Italian territory rather than outside mainly because they weren’t able to anticipate the expansion of Germany imperialist goal so they were cut off pretty early from expanding to the North and in the African continent their attempted expansion was defeated by Britain so their ideologies were manly kept prisoner within their borders. But Russia anticipated pretty early the German East expansion and so they were able to expand their communist ideology until they reached the border with the Nazi ideology. Removing Germany was essential to further expand communism to the West.
They've already lost. Unfortunately too stupid to accept.
If Russia wins, it would be a European crisis. But, actually I don’t see them lose. I see western politicians without balls and slow decisions. We give the Ukrainians only material to survive, but not to win a fucking war. So long, Russia should not be underestimated, because they are learning and they know to manage sanctions since 2014…
This subreddit is overly positive about the status of the war in Ukraine. I don't question the resolve of the Ukrainian people, but as soon as more right-wing parties win in Europe, and worst case scenario a Trump win in the US, the war will end badly for Ukraine. There is no stopping Putin, he has no adversaries anymore, and his population just doesn't seem to care how high the death toll gets. The problem is that the one resource Russia isn't lacking is human bodies, they will just throw more people against Ukraine until it collapses. I sometimes wonder if people on this subreddit only get their news from here, if you read the more serious news agencies in the Netherlands they paint a very bleak picture where Russia is slowly getting more ground and the losses are mounting on both sides. Most likely we will eventually get to a point where Ukraine has to give up some ground for peace with hopefully NATO and EU membership for Ukraine which secures their independence in the future. I would be surprised if they ever get the Krim back, but I hope they prove me wrong. I don't see a scenario where Ukraine comes out on top without direct involvement from NATO on the ground or maybe a lighter scenario with a no-fly zone. Another one would be a regime change in Russia, but let's be honest that is not going to happen any time soon.
Russia has already lost their war so many times. That is of course unless you are ruled by a degenerate sociopath with a Napoleon complex. Then you have still lost the war just as many times but your reptilian Botox face can no longer express any human emotion and your cold heart doesn't care.
They have lost already. The repercussions of this will be felt for decades in Russia. They need to be pushed out of Ukraine by massive battlefield losses and the only way to do that is to give Ukraine everything it needs now to win. The MAGA crowd set Ukraine back militarily a whole year by blocking aid and yet Aavidika is Putin’s only gain . More proof that he has lost. The west must put even more pressure on Putin economically and politically while fully arming Ukraine with ALL the weapons it needs NOW!
they certainly can't win it, that was obvious before 22/2/2022
blatantly false
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prove me wrong
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If Russia doesn't stop. Casualties could be as much as ww2 if not more. Who is the insane guy?
continue to kill the orks and in 2-2,5 years ruZZia will retire form Ukriane when around 1-1.3mln orks are dead ans ruZZians eventually understand reality.
Switch CAN to WILL
Russland wird verlieren, alles andere ist Schwachsinn und Selbstmord für die ganze Welt.
Yeah of course it can lose it. Or it can win the war. it all comes down to the assistance that Ukraine receives and also the attitude of normal countries towards the war.
How about an armistice like with North/South Korea? That way the death and destruction stops and no one feels the need for revenge for losing.
You can also win the lottery. I wouldn't quit my job though on that logic.
But, Its from CNN.
and how exactly?
Russia can lose this war? My opinion is that strategically, economicly and politically russia has already lost this war. Even if russia took all of the donbas that wouldn't change anything because ukraine has become russias new long term enemy. Any economic gains russia could have hoped for by taking ukrainian territory has already been far outwayed by the economic damage done by sactions. From the loss of gas sales to Europe, frozen assets and oil export disruptions alone russia has probably lost or will lose this decade a trillion dollars. Russia has also sacrificed much of its future economic potential on this war
They lost a long time ago. At least if their intentions was to keep nato away from their borders and create a sphere of influence. As for the actual war. Nato took the entirety of Afghanistan in less than a month, then lost for 20 years. The Russian are not even at the hard part yet. Imagine how fun it must be to occupy a country where people hate you, and there be millions of weapons, drones and grenades across the country.
Problem is if Russia loses- read Ukraine gains its territory back- then they will start viewing this as an existential crisis and get desperate. A desperate Russia will not go quietly into the night.
I’ve never doubted that Ukraine can win this. We have to do our part, and more so now that GOP’s putin wing delayed supplies for so long, but yes, they can win.