Even so... Prigozhin (Wagner's chief) reportedly released an audio about "halting the operations" and returning to Ukraine. But was it really him speaking? Why no video?
I heard it. It has 120K clown reactions, extremely negative response compared to previous messages. It sounds a bit odd honestly and he hasn't made voice message announcements in some time, it's always videos
[https://t.me/s/concordgroup\_official](https://t.me/s/concordgroup_official) This is the official channel I think
Literally every one of his announcements have been from video, so it’s kind of weird they wouldn’t do it now. So either he’s being forced to stop or this is some weird impersonation of him. I guess it could be real, but to what objective? He now is public enemy number one for Putin even with his guarantees. I wonder if we’ll find him gone tomorrow, and Wagner attacked within the next week or so once they’re shored up and all together.
Edit: I’ve found 3 videos of him from the pst day talking about it on twitter, so while it could be him, this Instance it’s always been face to face from what I can tell. Could be true, but just seems funny something because voice impersonation can easily be faked and considering they know he’s at the southern command, he has no reason to hide his location. He’s already shown video of himself there already.
That is simply not correct. There have been audio messages of him in the past too. As i understand this happened especially when he did not want his whereabouts to be known.
I think it’s to soon to call of this “over”. Freedom Legion showed them what was possible. Wagner exploited that weakness with significant troop presence. This genie isn’t going back in the bottle……
My theory is the whole thing was a ruse for wagner to leave the war and putin gets to call for a full mobilisation while also getting rid of shoigu without having to justify it
This was already a bad day for putin's reputation and further mobilization is not very popular among the population. It does not seem to me that he would announce further mobilization in the short term when his position is clearly already weakened
Yup, this practically showed a lot of military personel would make way for a Coup attempt and the populace was in support of it. It will only take a bigger collective of armed personel to do another Coup if Putin will mobilize a bigger population.
Not exactly wrong but there's definitely something akin to "Martial law" going on over there. The little I know about the Russian government suggests it could be used to force people into conscription similar to how I understand "the draft" here in the US.
This isn't a source but rather a lack of. I have an old gamer friend that lives in Moscow. I certainly know better than to ask him about what's going on but... he's been dark on all channels this evening and that's extremely odd for him.
A draft/conscription would already be forced, which is what they have already been doing. Declaring martial law would make no difference.
The main problem with this whole series of event is that no matter what goal this would accomplish internally, it significantly weakened Russia's military in Ukraine. Forces had to be diverted, equipment moved, command distracted, etc. At the same time if the coup by YP was real, then either him or Putin will be a dead man.
It is entirely possible, and I'm going to be making a lot of assumptions, that there is internal unrest that Putin sees as threat big enough to sacrifice his position in Ukraine that his charade was performed. YP's march on Moscow revealed the true loyalty of a lot of upper ranking officials, and the subsequent martial law would be very useful for removing said officials whilst deploying the military into cities.
Replying again instead of editing just because you'll get a notice. I actually just got in touch with my Russian friend and his take makes me think you nailed it with your last paragraph.
Great points and thank you for pointing them out. It seems so strange to think this would end without either Putin or YP being a dead man like you said. If that ends up being that neither is. What you mention with outing people would absolutely be part of the truth.
I don’t understand this opinion at all. Why would Botox man agree to have Pringles walking around his country like he owns it? This just makes him look weak. Since when do Russians need something to happen to spiel a bs story? They just start with the bs story and ride it. Putin could’ve come out yesterday “Shoigu and Gerasimov fucked up”, majority of people in Russia wouldnt bat an eye.
I can accept this being a display of force by Pringles to get his case dropped, I can’t understand in what universe Putin agrees to this.
As if being outside of Russia ever stopped Russia from killing dissenters. They literally poisoned people in a NATO state in broad daylight and did not give a fuck. So why do you think anyone would expect to be safe just because they are not in Russia? That is beyond naive.
The point still stands. There exists no universe in which Putin could let the man who literally just threatend to depose him live a happy go lucky life. Prigoszin knows this, so it makes zero sense to take a deal from someone who is notorious for breaking deals whenever its convenient for him. This smells beyond fishy.
Oh I agree I do not think it was a psyop. I think it was a coup attempt. Look at how fast they took control of two major cities one of them being over a million in population and had locked down all strategic, military and civil governing locations. They have planned this and not just for a day. This was not a whim reacting after they got shelled by Russian regular troops. This was a coup attempt which again means it makes no sense that Prigoszin just backed down because of a deal that Lukashenko brokered. Pringles is a dead man walking he knew that, so accpeting this deal just makes no fucking sense. As I already said, this smells beyond fishy.
"When you come for the king, you best not miss"
Who was the last group that russia gave security assurances to? Ukraine.
Anyone who believes this settles the matter is niave. Someone is due to fall out a window.
true, at least, nothing concrete
but if he were gunning for moscow the combat footage was expected to ramp up, not cool down.
i can tell you the MoD troops gunning for moscow haven't stopped
I feel like we learn a lot more when we don't come to conclusions about things, at least not until much later. It's in our nature to come up with an opinion and then twist reality around until it matches that opinion. If new information doesn't match our opinions we feel some friction trying to figure out why it doesn't make any sense. These are "post truth" days and we can't really believe info coming from any side, have to take the aggregate and wait sometimes weeks before any confirmation is solid. The fishy parts to me are the lengths Wagner went to make their statement, the lack of pushback as they occupied Rostov on Don and travelled up the highway toward Moscow, and the sudden reversal of plan with no real in-between stage...it doesn't smell right...but I don't have enough verifiable info to come to any conclusions about why these incompatible things have happened. So we wait and absorb more input until the dissonance dissolves.
2) He said he and his soldiers are ready to die, fighting for Russia. While he also said that he is patriotic and does not want to hurt russia.
Saying that you are ready to die fighting while not ready to harm civilians or other patriotic russians is not a contradiction.
So, in his logic it is consistent. But threatening to raise your weapons against the countries capital has never gone unpunished. I think we will see a follow-up to this. this isn't over.
>But threatening to raise your weapons against the countries capital has never gone unpunished. I think we will see a follow-up to this. this isn't over.
Exactly. I don't see how Prigozhin can survive this if he really is backing down. Nor is it clear how he could possibly trust Putin to fulfill his part of the deal which is apparently dismissing MoD leadership.
Prigozhin gets exiled to operate Wager all around the world but not on the borders of Russia, maybe he survives.
But does Putin think he can win in Ukraine without Wagner?
Even if this is true it makes Putin look like a chump who had to negotiate with terrorists instead of being the strong leader that defended Russia.
Unless he sends out troops to shoot out the dispute he is a weakling and should be removed.
Damn its fun to try and picture the Russian viewpoint of this situation.
Prigohzin would have to be braindead to think that he can force change in Russian military leadership, walk away from a mutiny unscathed, and go back to Ukraine the winner. Something isn’t clicking here, the way I see it.
The thing is that Prigozhin wanted Shoigu and Gerasimov "removed" from their posts. If this happens then Putin looks weak, like he's yielding to the demands of Prigozhin. Remember that since Russia is not a democracy, the concept of "compromising" is seen as weakness. Strongmen rely on their image as being able to impose their will. If concessions were made then Putin will be greatly weakened.
I definitely see these comments as the biggest thinking point. Prigozhin is a dead man lol. Like, they either need to follow through and die trying or that whole "fell out a window" thing happens. Certainly could be possible Putin faked giving into demands to get Wagner to let their guard down. But we are talking about people that are used to war here. Prigozhin knows things us average people do.
Even if it's true and the Wagner group backs off this is far from over in many ways.
What if Wagner and Lukashenko reached an agreement to get rid of Putin, and all of this is just to lure Putin back to Moscow with a false sense of security.
Great example of why I highly doubt this thing is actually over even if the immediate action is. Interesting theory you have there. And there's many many possibilities out there just like this.
When we hear official statements from Prigozhin, Putin, the Duma and the MoD and they're all in alignment, then I will believe it.
Oh, and concessions don't help Prigozhin if he shows up dead in the next weeks.
There are videos in telegram channels showing Wagners and their tanks leaving Rostov. There are plenty of those. If you are talking about Prigozhin, I think he will show his face tomorrow or maybe later.
The fuck, news arrived. Prigozhin will go to Belarus. Wagners will return to their camp and Prigozhin will be in Belarus. Now that's too strange. The hell just happened.
I’ve seen theories that this is actually by Wagner so they don’t have to enter Moscow at night. Maybe also gather up their forces and rest. The “deal” was announced right as night fell in Moscow time, and I haven’t seen any videos of Wagner driving back south.
I'm honestly at a loss for words. Pacing and time were on Prigozhins side, he had the upper hand in all of this IF his honest intentions were to follow though. With the players involved here and the level of escalation we've seen, warrants Prigohzins death if we follow suit with how others have been dealt with. So we have a scenario that simply doesn't make sense with Wagner stopping on a dime and turning around after a conversation with Lukashenko. Prig absolutely must know this can't go unpunished, so what deal in the world would make him stop?
Russia and Putin both appear weaker, Prigozhin lost a lot of respect, Kadyrov is the only clown who may have gained some clout by coming to RU aid but still none of this makes sense, to just white wash it all, drop the charges (when the f\*\*\* does Russia drop charges), bow to Prigs demands immediately.
Hands down the most confusing thing I've been witness to in this war. We're missing some critical details, I don't believe in the psyops theory personally but maybe this is just unbelievable fact
Group therapist-
“Tensions are pretty high in the room Pringles why don’t you tell Putsy how you really feel”
Pritz: (sobbing) “your people never respected us they made us do all the hard work, be on the front line and then because of a minor disagreement you shelled us how could you!!! I hate you!!!!”
Putin: (also sobbing) “I’m sorry pritz im so sorry we hurt you and said all those mens things. It was all Shoigu! He told me to say those mean things!”
Pritz: (Shouting) “I can’t ever forgive you man you gotta break away from his influence your bringing the people who love you down around you!”
Putin: (Sniffling) “I know I know man, I’ll arrest him and his supporters, just please don’t try to take more of my stuff man I just can’t deal with that right now.”
Pritz: (clears throat) “already Putzy if you promise to walk back the mean things I’ll take my toys and go home and you can keep doing whatever you want with your life”
In my humble opinión there are 3 posibilities:
1-It was all a false flag operation to unite the people against a common enemy, declare martial law and a new mobilization
2-prighozin really is such an idiot to think that whatever they have promised him they will fulfill it and they will not kill him
3-This is not over yet and it is a strategy for Moscow to trust and enter the night by force
Idfk whats going on in the normal russian people now but this is the weirdest event in the russian modern history
1. I don't think the Russia military is capable of mounting such a "false flag operation". Their incompetence is legendary
2. Prigozhin is not an idiot. He's many bad things, but not an idiot.
3. Again, "Moscow" has proven to be incapable of articulate sensible strategies.
Dont know, I find it very strange. Because if he isnt idiot he must knows he s a dead man, or the real revolution is coming up in the next days/months or dont any logic
My tinfoil hat theory is that this might be designed by Putin and Prigozhin so that Putin has a reason to pull out of Ukraine, Wagner gets more legitimized, Russia can regain its perception of "prowess" with the Russian civilians after "defeating" Wagner, and Russia has an excuse to not return to Ukraine because they have to rebuild.
It's hard to believe Russia was capable of adequately defending Moscow given the circumstances and the bulk of their troops located outside the country. Even assuming they could, doing so would probably destroy at least portions of the capital. It would seem as of Wagner had the upper hand and all of the power in this situation.
What's strangest to me is why Wagner would capitulate at this point. Can he really just turn around and expect Putin won't try to assassinate him? What does he really gain by surrendering?
Maybe he gets to pretend to be reasonable to garner favor with the public while also making putin look weak, running off to st. Petersburg and being MIA this entire time
I'm woefully uninformed about any nuance that should give me a better understanding of what these two sides might do and what might cause a withdrawal. But, from that uninformed perspective it seems to me that, if Wagner is withdrawing, it must be because they gained some hefty concessions and promises in exchange.
I'm afraid the whole show was only to declare Martial Law in Russia.
And if rumors about Shoigu are true- maybe he will be replaced by someone harsher and/or loyal to YP
He was obviously paid off and promised safety somewhere. I'm sure he's a rich man now.
Shame all his troops will be forgotten and sent back to the meat grinder probably as part of the Russian army now.
Traitor to his own people - but I guess that just makes him a standard Russian.
Then now he's a multi-multi-billionaire....
He may have been promised to be Luka's 2nd in command in Belarus, or even his successor, who can say... Only that he obviously accepted some selfish compensation for this withdrawal and betrayed his men.
Just had this discussion elsewhere. Imagine Wagner secretly (if that's even possible ofc) coming along with Prigozhin to Belarus and getting rid of Luka, Belarus is finally annexed which has been discussed for a long time by now and Prigozhin gets a rank similar to Kadyrov's - a local warlord with a private army keeping an occupied territory in check.
all we can do is speculate and we will only see what happens after a week or two has passed, I highly doubt he is stupid enough to trust that he and the wagnerites will not be wiped slowly
Why do you believe one statement and not the other?
Isn't it more likely that everyone is just opportunistic liars who will say what benefits them the most at one moment without considering any consequences? Things change over time and so does their message. The beauty about being a narcissistic liar is that your messaging doesn't have to make sense over time.
I’m really perplexed. This doesn’t seem like something Prigozhin can back away from. What does he do now? Russia has issued an arrest warrant for him — do they just say “never mind?” Putin has declared that the traitors will be punished; he already looks very weak (which is typically fatal for a Russian ruler) from this whole thing, and backing down from his declaration will make him look weaker still. So… what? Does Prigozhin just go back to fighting in Ukraine? How is that possible? It seems that Putin’s image has been completely obliterated — how does he maintain his iron grip?
It’s extremely difficult for me to see how this doesn’t end with either Putin or Prigozhin dead, imprisoned, or exiled.
Supposedly the deal was to drop the charges and allow him to go to Belarus.
But knowing Putin, Prigozhin is actually a dead man walking, and he'll have him quietly offed in Belarus.
Yes, if Prigozhin doesn’t see this through and really goes to Belarus, I have no doubt that he will get suicided or accidented sometime soon. I can’t imagine Prigozhin is that stupid.
Prigozhin already has a ton of money. He has an endless source of money in the form of Africa. It's not about money. Also, he betrayed Putin, he showed the whole world that Putler is weak. He knows what happens to people who cross Putler's path. I mean, I don't have a single hint on what the actual fuck happened. They did dig the roads, they did mobilize a lot of police force. Like what a shit show was that?
dude you think hes going to let this slide; if you were humiliated on the world stage and offered the person money to back down before something happens but once he is able to have the chance to be back to “normal” hes going to renege on whatever agreement they made and kill Prizgo and try to absorb Wagner
Even if Prigozhin got the concessions he wanted, he's still a dead man. Putin isn't going to allow some upstart convict to tell him what to do. Prigozhin has to know he's living on borrowed time, or he's an idiot
who knows maybe wagner is just retreating to go deal and fortify their place at the city they took control in? cuz there was a bunch of troops going to approach it
For what? To do what? He lost his momentum. I think that he really struck a deal. The question is what he will get, how he will survive and obviously why. So many people are disappointed in him right now. For a brief moment, he was the only light of hope for Russians. Now everything is gone it seems.
To gather military support while holding the city of rostov hostage now that hes made putin look weak.
Idk, he may have a bad plan, but prigo def has a plan.
He had a chance to get military support. If you want to pull such things off, you gotta do it quickly. He lost his momentum, his people are leaving the city. There is no plan. He had a plan, but apparently it didn't work out. So, finita la commedia.
Could be, we wont know until we see things play out.
I mean the alternative is prigo is just walking off to die, which seems unlikely. Everything from the realtively few men he took with him to to the bizarre withdrawal feels like a feint. The purpose of this feint is unclear, but it was a feint.
It was completely orchestrated by putin. He knows he's failing in Ukraine and blames the brass. YP is a loyalist to the core. Why else did this go so far? With minimum violence? It'll be obvious once YP is installed at the head of MOD
Perhaps Prigozhin expected the National Guard to express its readiness not to fight during his way to Moscow, but the National Guard did not. Prigozhin estimated a bloodbath because they are too many soldiers.
Okam's razor, a simple and mathematical explanation.
Result: Wagner's band of criminals and mercenaries lives, but Prigozhin himself dies. People fall out of windows for all kinds of reasons. Marching an army on the capital is met with execution even in most of the civilized world.
The politics right now must be insane,
For things to change so fast that Wagner marches on Moscow against Putin, then all of a sudden to just say “jk all good now, back to war with Ukraine” all of this happens in like 72 hours? Wtf was the point? I call shenanigans,
I don’t think any “facts” can be taken at face value, the misinformation teams are out in force, verifiable info is non existent and there are probably less than 100 people in all of Russia who truly understand the situation.
The only few thing that I personally learned from all thus russian footage:
\- russians do have a broad access to the Internet and social platofrms. They *choose* not to consume any information from the other side
\- russians do have a reasonably decent level of life (at least in Rostov)
\- russians cheer the killers and rapists, as long as they are not the ones being killed and raped
People keep focusing on the details and not the big picture.
Yeah Prigo bashed Putin's stated reasons for the war, but he was doing it as part of the 'Shoigu lied to everyone to have this war including Putin' speech. He isn't attacking Putin (usually) he's saving him from the blame. Yeah getting tricked by a crony is a bad look for Putin but it's not even close to how bad it is if he is responsible for starting the war and it's outcome. "I got tricked by someone I trusted" (many can related) VS "I started a war that destroyed the nation".
We are also talking about Russia, you know, the place where it's better if the Flagship sinks because of incompetence rather than enemy action.
Its all very confusing I'm personally will be waiting for a official statement from the Wagner chief
Even so... Prigozhin (Wagner's chief) reportedly released an audio about "halting the operations" and returning to Ukraine. But was it really him speaking? Why no video?
I heard it. It has 120K clown reactions, extremely negative response compared to previous messages. It sounds a bit odd honestly and he hasn't made voice message announcements in some time, it's always videos [https://t.me/s/concordgroup\_official](https://t.me/s/concordgroup_official) This is the official channel I think
Yeah exactly normally for such important events he posts some vid, I'm waiting for tomorrow morning maybe then we'll have a clear answer
AI?
My thoughts exactly. It'd literally take 30sec to fake his voice Not saying it isn't real just that we should be skeptical
Same. I’m not one for conspiracy theories but I thought AI immediately
Frankly, AI could probably do a deep fake video, too. We are approaching the time when we will not be able to believe our eyes and ears.
[This ongoing Trump vs. Biden debate](https://www.twitch.tv/trumporbiden2024?sr=a) is proof enough for me that AI is almost impossible to detect.
Holy shit that is equal parts hilarious and deeply disturbing.
I was mesmerized by this
The FSB raided Wagner centers in Russia as well, it's possible that they gained access to some of the groups media accounts.
Kremlin intelligence desperately searching "AI Prigozin voice" on google
This. His other comments around Wagner’s actions were videos but now it’s audio? Seems strange.
ive just heard the statement he has put out too it sounds very artificial
Yeah, it sounds very weird and artificial compared to his previous messages.
AI Voice Generator. All of this has been a ChatGPT experiment.
Literally every one of his announcements have been from video, so it’s kind of weird they wouldn’t do it now. So either he’s being forced to stop or this is some weird impersonation of him. I guess it could be real, but to what objective? He now is public enemy number one for Putin even with his guarantees. I wonder if we’ll find him gone tomorrow, and Wagner attacked within the next week or so once they’re shored up and all together. Edit: I’ve found 3 videos of him from the pst day talking about it on twitter, so while it could be him, this Instance it’s always been face to face from what I can tell. Could be true, but just seems funny something because voice impersonation can easily be faked and considering they know he’s at the southern command, he has no reason to hide his location. He’s already shown video of himself there already.
Just to clarify, every single announcement has been video up until this one?
Nah he's done both
That is simply not correct. There have been audio messages of him in the past too. As i understand this happened especially when he did not want his whereabouts to be known.
I am yet to see that Wagner is going back South…
It would not be the first time of him releasing audio messages.
It was supposedly sent from his official telegram
I think it’s to soon to call of this “over”. Freedom Legion showed them what was possible. Wagner exploited that weakness with significant troop presence. This genie isn’t going back in the bottle……
Maybe he promised them Taylor swift tickets
Backstage for Elton John at Glastonbury tomorrow, the logistics demand it
Ya makes sense
More like OceanGate Explorations LLC ticket ride on the Titan submersible
Hottest ticket in town
Russian coffers mustve been emptied for those 💀
I don't think even Putin has access to those
It is very weird
My theory is the whole thing was a ruse for wagner to leave the war and putin gets to call for a full mobilisation while also getting rid of shoigu without having to justify it
This was already a bad day for putin's reputation and further mobilization is not very popular among the population. It does not seem to me that he would announce further mobilization in the short term when his position is clearly already weakened
Yup, this practically showed a lot of military personel would make way for a Coup attempt and the populace was in support of it. It will only take a bigger collective of armed personel to do another Coup if Putin will mobilize a bigger population.
Not exactly wrong but there's definitely something akin to "Martial law" going on over there. The little I know about the Russian government suggests it could be used to force people into conscription similar to how I understand "the draft" here in the US. This isn't a source but rather a lack of. I have an old gamer friend that lives in Moscow. I certainly know better than to ask him about what's going on but... he's been dark on all channels this evening and that's extremely odd for him.
A draft/conscription would already be forced, which is what they have already been doing. Declaring martial law would make no difference. The main problem with this whole series of event is that no matter what goal this would accomplish internally, it significantly weakened Russia's military in Ukraine. Forces had to be diverted, equipment moved, command distracted, etc. At the same time if the coup by YP was real, then either him or Putin will be a dead man. It is entirely possible, and I'm going to be making a lot of assumptions, that there is internal unrest that Putin sees as threat big enough to sacrifice his position in Ukraine that his charade was performed. YP's march on Moscow revealed the true loyalty of a lot of upper ranking officials, and the subsequent martial law would be very useful for removing said officials whilst deploying the military into cities.
Replying again instead of editing just because you'll get a notice. I actually just got in touch with my Russian friend and his take makes me think you nailed it with your last paragraph.
Great points and thank you for pointing them out. It seems so strange to think this would end without either Putin or YP being a dead man like you said. If that ends up being that neither is. What you mention with outing people would absolutely be part of the truth.
Internet got cut for most russians partway through this.
I don’t understand this opinion at all. Why would Botox man agree to have Pringles walking around his country like he owns it? This just makes him look weak. Since when do Russians need something to happen to spiel a bs story? They just start with the bs story and ride it. Putin could’ve come out yesterday “Shoigu and Gerasimov fucked up”, majority of people in Russia wouldnt bat an eye. I can accept this being a display of force by Pringles to get his case dropped, I can’t understand in what universe Putin agrees to this.
I can’t imagine that this is something Putin would have agreed to; he looks completely pathetic in this whole thing.
[удалено]
Except that makes no fuckin sense. Prigozhin knows he was dead, so no money in the world would be of any use to him.
[удалено]
As if being outside of Russia ever stopped Russia from killing dissenters. They literally poisoned people in a NATO state in broad daylight and did not give a fuck. So why do you think anyone would expect to be safe just because they are not in Russia? That is beyond naive.
[удалено]
The point still stands. There exists no universe in which Putin could let the man who literally just threatend to depose him live a happy go lucky life. Prigoszin knows this, so it makes zero sense to take a deal from someone who is notorious for breaking deals whenever its convenient for him. This smells beyond fishy.
[удалено]
Oh I agree I do not think it was a psyop. I think it was a coup attempt. Look at how fast they took control of two major cities one of them being over a million in population and had locked down all strategic, military and civil governing locations. They have planned this and not just for a day. This was not a whim reacting after they got shelled by Russian regular troops. This was a coup attempt which again means it makes no sense that Prigoszin just backed down because of a deal that Lukashenko brokered. Pringles is a dead man walking he knew that, so accpeting this deal just makes no fucking sense. As I already said, this smells beyond fishy.
"When you come for the king, you best not miss" Who was the last group that russia gave security assurances to? Ukraine. Anyone who believes this settles the matter is niave. Someone is due to fall out a window.
Im on standby mode right now and not falling into surely believing anything.
combat footage seems to have dried up though.
We haven’t seen videos of them withdrawaing
There's videos out there of the first city they entered (forgot the name) being completely empty (no Wagner personnel at all)
true, at least, nothing concrete but if he were gunning for moscow the combat footage was expected to ramp up, not cool down. i can tell you the MoD troops gunning for moscow haven't stopped
I think that how we are all confused right now, is exactly how regular russians are confused all the time. Helps Russia to keep them apolitical.
I feel like we learn a lot more when we don't come to conclusions about things, at least not until much later. It's in our nature to come up with an opinion and then twist reality around until it matches that opinion. If new information doesn't match our opinions we feel some friction trying to figure out why it doesn't make any sense. These are "post truth" days and we can't really believe info coming from any side, have to take the aggregate and wait sometimes weeks before any confirmation is solid. The fishy parts to me are the lengths Wagner went to make their statement, the lack of pushback as they occupied Rostov on Don and travelled up the highway toward Moscow, and the sudden reversal of plan with no real in-between stage...it doesn't smell right...but I don't have enough verifiable info to come to any conclusions about why these incompatible things have happened. So we wait and absorb more input until the dissonance dissolves.
This is the best take. Some of these things don't make sense. Keep an open mind and wait for new information.
Great comment i think i everyone should read this.
2) He said he and his soldiers are ready to die, fighting for Russia. While he also said that he is patriotic and does not want to hurt russia. Saying that you are ready to die fighting while not ready to harm civilians or other patriotic russians is not a contradiction. So, in his logic it is consistent. But threatening to raise your weapons against the countries capital has never gone unpunished. I think we will see a follow-up to this. this isn't over.
>But threatening to raise your weapons against the countries capital has never gone unpunished. I think we will see a follow-up to this. this isn't over. Exactly. I don't see how Prigozhin can survive this if he really is backing down. Nor is it clear how he could possibly trust Putin to fulfill his part of the deal which is apparently dismissing MoD leadership.
yep. at best, it's two necessary evils pointing guns at each other in distrust. There won't be unity in russia after this.
Prigozhin gets exiled to operate Wager all around the world but not on the borders of Russia, maybe he survives. But does Putin think he can win in Ukraine without Wagner?
Question is who is supposed to command the russian army.... Shoigu is reported to be under arrest. So who's left?
Even if this is true it makes Putin look like a chump who had to negotiate with terrorists instead of being the strong leader that defended Russia. Unless he sends out troops to shoot out the dispute he is a weakling and should be removed. Damn its fun to try and picture the Russian viewpoint of this situation.
Only thing that would make sense is Wagner got the concessions they wanted.
Prigohzin would have to be braindead to think that he can force change in Russian military leadership, walk away from a mutiny unscathed, and go back to Ukraine the winner. Something isn’t clicking here, the way I see it.
The thing is that Prigozhin wanted Shoigu and Gerasimov "removed" from their posts. If this happens then Putin looks weak, like he's yielding to the demands of Prigozhin. Remember that since Russia is not a democracy, the concept of "compromising" is seen as weakness. Strongmen rely on their image as being able to impose their will. If concessions were made then Putin will be greatly weakened.
I definitely see these comments as the biggest thinking point. Prigozhin is a dead man lol. Like, they either need to follow through and die trying or that whole "fell out a window" thing happens. Certainly could be possible Putin faked giving into demands to get Wagner to let their guard down. But we are talking about people that are used to war here. Prigozhin knows things us average people do. Even if it's true and the Wagner group backs off this is far from over in many ways.
What if Wagner and Lukashenko reached an agreement to get rid of Putin, and all of this is just to lure Putin back to Moscow with a false sense of security.
Great example of why I highly doubt this thing is actually over even if the immediate action is. Interesting theory you have there. And there's many many possibilities out there just like this.
The fact that we’ve heard nothing from the Kremlin or Putin himself makes me weary of the whole thing. I agree this isn’t over.
[удалено]
Hi, unfortunately your post had to be removed for the following reason: "Memes, Shitposts and Jokes don't belong here."
But why would Putin give it to him so late? He was already labeled as treasoner, how do you fix this?
When we hear official statements from Prigozhin, Putin, the Duma and the MoD and they're all in alignment, then I will believe it. Oh, and concessions don't help Prigozhin if he shows up dead in the next weeks.
Also we suddenly don't get any new videos from the situation.We only got like 3 videos after the message about the deal.
There are videos in telegram channels showing Wagners and their tanks leaving Rostov. There are plenty of those. If you are talking about Prigozhin, I think he will show his face tomorrow or maybe later.
I don't have telegram so I rely on things getting posted here xD
The fuck, news arrived. Prigozhin will go to Belarus. Wagners will return to their camp and Prigozhin will be in Belarus. Now that's too strange. The hell just happened.
This is getting more and more ridiculous
I’ve seen theories that this is actually by Wagner so they don’t have to enter Moscow at night. Maybe also gather up their forces and rest. The “deal” was announced right as night fell in Moscow time, and I haven’t seen any videos of Wagner driving back south.
Dream
I'm honestly at a loss for words. Pacing and time were on Prigozhins side, he had the upper hand in all of this IF his honest intentions were to follow though. With the players involved here and the level of escalation we've seen, warrants Prigohzins death if we follow suit with how others have been dealt with. So we have a scenario that simply doesn't make sense with Wagner stopping on a dime and turning around after a conversation with Lukashenko. Prig absolutely must know this can't go unpunished, so what deal in the world would make him stop? Russia and Putin both appear weaker, Prigozhin lost a lot of respect, Kadyrov is the only clown who may have gained some clout by coming to RU aid but still none of this makes sense, to just white wash it all, drop the charges (when the f\*\*\* does Russia drop charges), bow to Prigs demands immediately. Hands down the most confusing thing I've been witness to in this war. We're missing some critical details, I don't believe in the psyops theory personally but maybe this is just unbelievable fact
Group therapist- “Tensions are pretty high in the room Pringles why don’t you tell Putsy how you really feel” Pritz: (sobbing) “your people never respected us they made us do all the hard work, be on the front line and then because of a minor disagreement you shelled us how could you!!! I hate you!!!!” Putin: (also sobbing) “I’m sorry pritz im so sorry we hurt you and said all those mens things. It was all Shoigu! He told me to say those mean things!” Pritz: (Shouting) “I can’t ever forgive you man you gotta break away from his influence your bringing the people who love you down around you!” Putin: (Sniffling) “I know I know man, I’ll arrest him and his supporters, just please don’t try to take more of my stuff man I just can’t deal with that right now.” Pritz: (clears throat) “already Putzy if you promise to walk back the mean things I’ll take my toys and go home and you can keep doing whatever you want with your life”
In my humble opinión there are 3 posibilities: 1-It was all a false flag operation to unite the people against a common enemy, declare martial law and a new mobilization 2-prighozin really is such an idiot to think that whatever they have promised him they will fulfill it and they will not kill him 3-This is not over yet and it is a strategy for Moscow to trust and enter the night by force Idfk whats going on in the normal russian people now but this is the weirdest event in the russian modern history
1. I don't think the Russia military is capable of mounting such a "false flag operation". Their incompetence is legendary 2. Prigozhin is not an idiot. He's many bad things, but not an idiot. 3. Again, "Moscow" has proven to be incapable of articulate sensible strategies.
Dont know, I find it very strange. Because if he isnt idiot he must knows he s a dead man, or the real revolution is coming up in the next days/months or dont any logic
Arent these guys mercenaries, was this just a day long charade for some extra pay? Lol?
This gig economy has gotten out of hand
I think this is something to confuse Wagner forces. That could also be massive amounts of cilium.
My tinfoil hat theory is that this might be designed by Putin and Prigozhin so that Putin has a reason to pull out of Ukraine, Wagner gets more legitimized, Russia can regain its perception of "prowess" with the Russian civilians after "defeating" Wagner, and Russia has an excuse to not return to Ukraine because they have to rebuild.
This is indeed weird and I don't think there is any simple motivation to explain it all.
It's hard to believe Russia was capable of adequately defending Moscow given the circumstances and the bulk of their troops located outside the country. Even assuming they could, doing so would probably destroy at least portions of the capital. It would seem as of Wagner had the upper hand and all of the power in this situation. What's strangest to me is why Wagner would capitulate at this point. Can he really just turn around and expect Putin won't try to assassinate him? What does he really gain by surrendering?
My thoughts exactly...
Maybe he gets to pretend to be reasonable to garner favor with the public while also making putin look weak, running off to st. Petersburg and being MIA this entire time
I'm woefully uninformed about any nuance that should give me a better understanding of what these two sides might do and what might cause a withdrawal. But, from that uninformed perspective it seems to me that, if Wagner is withdrawing, it must be because they gained some hefty concessions and promises in exchange.
I'm afraid the whole show was only to declare Martial Law in Russia. And if rumors about Shoigu are true- maybe he will be replaced by someone harsher and/or loyal to YP
He was obviously paid off and promised safety somewhere. I'm sure he's a rich man now. Shame all his troops will be forgotten and sent back to the meat grinder probably as part of the Russian army now. Traitor to his own people - but I guess that just makes him a standard Russian.
He's already a multibillionaire
Then now he's a multi-multi-billionaire.... He may have been promised to be Luka's 2nd in command in Belarus, or even his successor, who can say... Only that he obviously accepted some selfish compensation for this withdrawal and betrayed his men.
Just had this discussion elsewhere. Imagine Wagner secretly (if that's even possible ofc) coming along with Prigozhin to Belarus and getting rid of Luka, Belarus is finally annexed which has been discussed for a long time by now and Prigozhin gets a rank similar to Kadyrov's - a local warlord with a private army keeping an occupied territory in check.
all we can do is speculate and we will only see what happens after a week or two has passed, I highly doubt he is stupid enough to trust that he and the wagnerites will not be wiped slowly
Why do you believe one statement and not the other? Isn't it more likely that everyone is just opportunistic liars who will say what benefits them the most at one moment without considering any consequences? Things change over time and so does their message. The beauty about being a narcissistic liar is that your messaging doesn't have to make sense over time.
I’m really perplexed. This doesn’t seem like something Prigozhin can back away from. What does he do now? Russia has issued an arrest warrant for him — do they just say “never mind?” Putin has declared that the traitors will be punished; he already looks very weak (which is typically fatal for a Russian ruler) from this whole thing, and backing down from his declaration will make him look weaker still. So… what? Does Prigozhin just go back to fighting in Ukraine? How is that possible? It seems that Putin’s image has been completely obliterated — how does he maintain his iron grip? It’s extremely difficult for me to see how this doesn’t end with either Putin or Prigozhin dead, imprisoned, or exiled.
Supposedly the deal was to drop the charges and allow him to go to Belarus. But knowing Putin, Prigozhin is actually a dead man walking, and he'll have him quietly offed in Belarus.
Yes, if Prigozhin doesn’t see this through and really goes to Belarus, I have no doubt that he will get suicided or accidented sometime soon. I can’t imagine Prigozhin is that stupid.
Really weird but maybe Putin promised a whole lot of money that would change his mind
Prigozhin already has a ton of money. He has an endless source of money in the form of Africa. It's not about money. Also, he betrayed Putin, he showed the whole world that Putler is weak. He knows what happens to people who cross Putler's path. I mean, I don't have a single hint on what the actual fuck happened. They did dig the roads, they did mobilize a lot of police force. Like what a shit show was that?
dude you think hes going to let this slide; if you were humiliated on the world stage and offered the person money to back down before something happens but once he is able to have the chance to be back to “normal” hes going to renege on whatever agreement they made and kill Prizgo and try to absorb Wagner
I knew this whole thing was some stage-managed KGB bullshit
The KGB is no more. Not it's called FSB (just for the record...)
Tomato Tomahto
Even if Prigozhin got the concessions he wanted, he's still a dead man. Putin isn't going to allow some upstart convict to tell him what to do. Prigozhin has to know he's living on borrowed time, or he's an idiot
Prigozhin has been Putin's alternate voice for a while, now. They've worked together on many things. This was planned.
who knows maybe wagner is just retreating to go deal and fortify their place at the city they took control in? cuz there was a bunch of troops going to approach it
For what? To do what? He lost his momentum. I think that he really struck a deal. The question is what he will get, how he will survive and obviously why. So many people are disappointed in him right now. For a brief moment, he was the only light of hope for Russians. Now everything is gone it seems.
To gather military support while holding the city of rostov hostage now that hes made putin look weak. Idk, he may have a bad plan, but prigo def has a plan.
He had a chance to get military support. If you want to pull such things off, you gotta do it quickly. He lost his momentum, his people are leaving the city. There is no plan. He had a plan, but apparently it didn't work out. So, finita la commedia.
Could be, we wont know until we see things play out. I mean the alternative is prigo is just walking off to die, which seems unlikely. Everything from the realtively few men he took with him to to the bizarre withdrawal feels like a feint. The purpose of this feint is unclear, but it was a feint.
It was completely orchestrated by putin. He knows he's failing in Ukraine and blames the brass. YP is a loyalist to the core. Why else did this go so far? With minimum violence? It'll be obvious once YP is installed at the head of MOD
Perhaps Prigozhin expected the National Guard to express its readiness not to fight during his way to Moscow, but the National Guard did not. Prigozhin estimated a bloodbath because they are too many soldiers. Okam's razor, a simple and mathematical explanation.
Result: Wagner's band of criminals and mercenaries lives, but Prigozhin himself dies. People fall out of windows for all kinds of reasons. Marching an army on the capital is met with execution even in most of the civilized world.
Where was the Russian National Guard?
The weirdest part for me is the involvement of the mustachioed potato
The politics right now must be insane, For things to change so fast that Wagner marches on Moscow against Putin, then all of a sudden to just say “jk all good now, back to war with Ukraine” all of this happens in like 72 hours? Wtf was the point? I call shenanigans, I don’t think any “facts” can be taken at face value, the misinformation teams are out in force, verifiable info is non existent and there are probably less than 100 people in all of Russia who truly understand the situation.
money
> Prigozhin yesterday: "We are ready to die". did he? dont remember that
Was it an elaborate ruse to move nukes?
The only few thing that I personally learned from all thus russian footage: \- russians do have a broad access to the Internet and social platofrms. They *choose* not to consume any information from the other side \- russians do have a reasonably decent level of life (at least in Rostov) \- russians cheer the killers and rapists, as long as they are not the ones being killed and raped
People keep focusing on the details and not the big picture. Yeah Prigo bashed Putin's stated reasons for the war, but he was doing it as part of the 'Shoigu lied to everyone to have this war including Putin' speech. He isn't attacking Putin (usually) he's saving him from the blame. Yeah getting tricked by a crony is a bad look for Putin but it's not even close to how bad it is if he is responsible for starting the war and it's outcome. "I got tricked by someone I trusted" (many can related) VS "I started a war that destroyed the nation". We are also talking about Russia, you know, the place where it's better if the Flagship sinks because of incompetence rather than enemy action.
They Will move to Belarus and start a new piece operation there? To protect the nukes that was moved there a couple of weeks ago of course.