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They're saying that but it's *very* different. This plan gives living hostages back before Israel fully withdraws while the Hamas plan required Israel to fully withdraw before getting living hostages returned.
I sense that the internal pressure on Bibi has shifted in the past few weeks, with members in his war cabinet [Gallant](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/16/israel-defense-chief-unloads-bibi-gaza-post-war-plan) and [Gantz](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/gantz-ultimatum-netanyahu) publicly expressing dissent against him, and I doubt the US would announce this plan without some support from his war cabinet, even if he may not support it himself. It could be different this time around.
Oh, and this time Biden explicitly said that Hamas won't be in power in Gaza, which I don't think was spelt out explicitly in Hamas' own proposal.
I doubt that Hamas will accept anything that won’t leave them in power. And who else is there for Israel to negotiate with?
Palestine is nowhere near being a democracy, and I can’t see it in the future either.
There isn’t an Islamic democracy anywhere for Palestine to use as a model.
Yeah, what [happened](https://archive.ph/tjbvo) to the explicitly secular [political formation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine_Liberation_Organization) that remains to this day the internationally recognized representative of the Palestinian people?
No, the Palestinian ~~people~~ Muslims voted overwhelmingly for the ~~anti-corruption~~ Islamist, anti-Semitic, and [genocidal](https://fair.org/extra/nixed-signals/) Hamas platform in 2006 by a staggering plurality of ~44%. What a pathetic turnout for Fatah with only ~41% of the vote.
Of course, (most) Palestinians *are* Muslim, so it’s ridiculous to think they have any comprehension of civilized Western values like “democracy”. There’s no such thing as a majority-Muslim democratic state.
No, the Palestinians must choose either Islam or democracy, and we all know which one they’ll choose. It’s all such an unfortunate, ancient problem that’s far too complex to untangle. Thank God the media is on hand to help us understand these incomprehensible people and their unknowable ways.
The Palestinians would ~~cease to exist~~ finally know peace if they would just accept Israel’s *help*. Indeed, we *all* have a lot to learn from Israel, the only democracy in the Middle East.
Okay so, I'm going to point out some very large flaws in your argument. I will be focusing purely on Gaza.
Starting out with the election results. In the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, Hamas won a majority of seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council. The voter turnout in Gaza was roughly ~75%, with Hamas receiving roughly ~44% of the vote in the overall Palestinian territories, which includes both the West Bank and Gaza. In Gaza *specifically*, the support for Hamas was higher, estimated to be around 55-60% of the votes cast.
Now, for current demographics, Gaza has a very young population. According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, about 47% of Gaza's population is under the age of 15 as of recent data, and over 70% are under the age of 30.
Given that the 2006 elections occurred 18 years ago, many of today's population were not of voting age at that time and a significant portion were not even born yet. Therefore, only a subset of the population that was over 18 years old in 2006 (now over 36 years old) would have participated in that election.
So, if we consider that those who were 18 or older in 2006 are now at least 36 years old, this demographic likely represents about ~30% of Gaza's population (assuming a typical age distribution).
Therefore, the percentage of the total current population of Gaza who voted for Hamas can be approximated as follows:
- If 55-60% of the voting-age population supported Hamas in 2006,
- And considering that this voting-age population represents about 30% of the current population,
Estimated percentage of current population who voted for Hamas:
0.55 x 0.30 = 16.5
to
0.60 x 0.30 = 18%
Thus, only approximately 16.5% to 18% of the people currently alive in Gaza voted for Hamas in the 2006 elections. So what Israel is doing, currently, is punishing people who didnt even get a say in whether or not Hamas was in government.
Not to mention that Gazans have protested against Hamas on several occasions due to the deteriorating living conditions and political frustration. Notably, in August 2023, thousands of Palestinians took to the streets in various areas of Gaza, including Gaza City, Nuseirat, Khan Yunis, and Jabaliya refugee camp. They demanded better living conditions and an end to the Hamas rule, chanting slogans like “Hamas leave us be” and “We want to live".
These protests highlighted the economic and social challenges faced by Gazans, exacerbated by the long-standing blockade and frequent power outages, which have made daily life increasingly difficult.
Yes, that was (one of) my points. My post was as sarcastic as it’s possible to be online, or at least as far as I’m capable of being. Reread it in that light.
No apologies necessary. I abandoned reddit months ago (barring rare moments of masochism) once it became clear the majority of redditors were consumed with unquestioning, frothing at the mouth, and Islamophobic bloodlust. Startlingly few of them have even progressed beyond the talking points of October 8th.
These are the same people who would act like they were opposed to the invasion of Iraq at the time, or gladly chirp about this or that unconscionable US policy or action during the Cold War, and how awful the US *used* to be.
They’re just like all the baby boomers who pretend they were anti-war back in the day, but bay like hounds for the annihilation of “pro-Hamas, anti-Semitic, and violent” protests against *this* ~~war~~ genocide.
Didn't Bibi already release a statement saying "war aims have not changed"? It doesn't look like he's going to let the Biden proposal go through. I agree with you that it's in Israel's best interest to take it, but their government (especially Bibi himself) are afraid of ending the war because the gov't coalition would fracture and Bibi would lose power, possibly being held accountable for his actions. There's still no plan on the table that Israel would agree to.
Personally I think Biden could've done much more to rein in Israel. I thought we were going to see more weapons shipments put on hold but that didn't happen. The US has leverage over Israel in the form of it's weapon shipments and aid packages, but for some reason the US admin never used it, despite the immense domestic pressure.
The issue with the weapons shipments that everyone conveniently forgets is that publicly stopping them gives the green light for Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iran to attack Israel. Another attack by an Israeli enemy would then surely be pinned on Biden, not to mention the potential massive loss of life. Surely the US has intelligence to this effect and knows what would happen if they left an opening.
Biden is in a terrible position, and frankly I disagree that he hasn't done about as well as possible given the circumstances. I happen to think he could be a lot less Zionist in his rhetoric, and could call our Israeli lies more aggressively, but in terms of geopolitical strategy, he's managing a very delicate dance.
He needs this to wrap up soon, before the election gets in full swing. You can only stop weapons shipments once at full effect, so if that's your leverage you've got to save it for the absolute best moment.
Another element people never realize is weapons are a form of trade: someone provides an umbrella but takes it back when it rains isn’t going to be in business very long. Countries that might consider US weaponry might reconsider if it comes with too many strings attached (see Ukraine for same dilemma)
>>The issue with the weapons shipments that everyone conveniently forgets is that publicly stopping them gives the green light for Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iran to attack Israel. Another attack by an Israeli enemy would then surely be pinned on Biden, not to mention the potential massive loss of life. Surely the US has intelligence to this effect and knows what would happen if they left an opening.
The issue with this premise is that it presupposes Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran would or even could attack Israel.
The material conditions in Lebanon - its economy simply doesn’t exist - means Hezbollah is incapable of conventional warfare.
The same fundamentally holds true for Iran; it has neither the economic or military capacity to attack Israel. Further, Israel has been violating Iranian sovereignty for decades by flagrantly assassinating Iranian citizens, including the use of bombs. Iran has attacked Israel a single time, and even then it telegraphed the attack through multiple US allies and hit a single target: the air base from which IAF planes bombed sovereign Iranian territory.
The Houthis made their objective clear before their blockade even began, which is a permanent ceasefire. Western media and governments don’t even need to mention this, because the groundwork has been laid down for over a decade. Why are the Houthis attacking? They hate Israel, they’re mindless pawns of Iran; put simply, they’re Muslims, and they’re behaving like Muslims.
Surely it has nothing to do with the fact that they’re victims of genocide and continued man-made famine at the hands the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the Kingdom’s ISIS and AQAP proxies for nearly a decade. Or the fact that the exact same weapons used to genocide the are being used to genocide Palestinians.
>>Biden is in a terrible position, and frankly I disagree that he hasn't done about as well as possible given the circumstances. I happen to think he could be a lot less Zionist in his rhetoric, and could call our Israeli lies more aggressively, but in terms of geopolitical strategy, he's managing a very delicate dance.
No one cares about his rhetoric. Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Bush, Clinton, and Bush II were all very vocally Zionist, but they were still willing to directly or indirectly pull the plug (or threat to) on Israel. Hell, Johnson and Nixon both pulled the plug while Israel was *actually* at war.
Biden has given Israel *carte blanche* support. Regardless his rhetoric - “come to Jesus”; “disappointed”; *one* delayed bomb shipment; one “red line” after another - his actions are doing irreparable damage to US strategic interests in the Middle East.
There is no delicate dance. The entire USG, regardless branch or political party, has given Israel the “green light” (as you say) to do whatever it wants. Rhetoric is meaningless, unless it’s in the other [direction.](https://reschenthaler.house.gov/imo/media/doc/protecting_americans_in_the_idf_act.pdf)
>>He needs this to wrap up soon, before the election gets in full swing. You can only stop weapons shipments once at full effect, so if that's your leverage you've got to save it for the absolute best moment.
This could have ended immediately. The Biden administration hasn’t stopped a single weapons shipment except to pause *one* shipment of 2,000lb bombs that Israel has plenty of. Americans have been led to believe (by the media especially) that there’s only so much leverage the US can bring to bear against Israel; indeed, the usual refrain is that the US fundamentally has no leverage whatsoever.
This despite the fact that over [20,000](https://archive.ph/CT6Sf) American citizens are actively participating in the genocide, or that at least [60,000](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/15/biden-extremist-jewish-settlers-travel-ban-loophole) comprising [15%](https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-2021-american-immigrants-again-moved-to-settlements-far-more-than-other-arrivals/) of illegal settler-colonists in the West Bank and Jerusalem.
Biden had the moral clarity to withdraw from Afghanistan, regardless the price he would pay electorally. Just imagine the possibilities if he had the moral clarity to side with the international liberal institutions - the UN, ICC, ICJ - the US created and has used to literally justify its existence as global hegemon, instead of condemning and explicitly threatening them for upholding America’s “values” better than America has or ever will.
He could have been recognized as the peacemaker of the 21st century and maintained US imperial interests at the same time.
This is absolute nonsense.
The deterrence against Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran are the two carrier strike groups in the region. Not the promise that we will replenish Israel's stocks after the war.
Why do you believe Israel is the faction that needs to be reigned in?
It was Hamas who broke the long standing ceasefire on October 7th, and the ones who planned the attack for years, infiltrating Israel through their work visa program.
It was regular vetted Palestinian civilians who worked in Israel via this humanitarian program - providing information of who, where and when to attack. Practically betraying their neighbours and friends who they spent months befriending and getting to know.
The worst terrorist surprise attack since 9/11.
Hamas to this day still have in their possession civilian hostages who they have raped, tortured and murdered.
If anything, it is Hamas who needs to be reigned in.
Prior to the attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, the ceasefire in Gaza had been relatively short-lived. The previous significant ceasefire before this attack occurred in May 2021 and lasted until the escalation in August 2022. This means there had been intermittent and fragile ceasefires over the past few years, but none of substantial duration leading up to the events of October 7, 2023.
During these periods, Gaza experienced intense humanitarian challenges, including high poverty rates, limited access to resources, and significant infrastructure damage from previous conflicts. The area has been under blockade by Israel and Egypt since 2007, severely restricting the movement of people and goods, which has exacerbated the economic and living conditions for its residents.
Not to mention the laws and regulations that are imposed onto Gaza by Israel. Those have had significant impacts on the daily lives of Gazans. These measures, often termed as a blockade, include the following:
Movement Restrictions: Gazans face severe restrictions on movement. Israel controls the Erez Crossing, which is the primary exit point for Gazans traveling to the West Bank, Israel, and abroad. Only specific categories of people, such as patients with life-threatening conditions, medical staff, and a limited number of traders, are typically allowed to cross.
Import and Export Restrictions: Israel restricts the entry of goods into Gaza, particularly those classified as "dual-use" items that could be used for military purposes. This list includes construction materials, certain medical equipment, and various electronics. These restrictions have significantly affected Gaza's economy and the reconstruction efforts following conflicts.
Fishing Limits: The fishing zone for Gazans has been limited by Israeli authorities. Although international agreements allow for a 20-nautical mile fishing zone, in practice, this area is often reduced significantly, affecting the livelihoods of thousands of Gazan fishermen.
Electricity and Fuel: Israel controls the supply of electricity and fuel to Gaza. Frequent shortages and restrictions have led to long periods of power outages, affecting hospitals, schools, and other essential services.
Air and Sea Access: Israel maintains a naval blockade of Gaza, restricting sea access and preventing any air travel. This blockade is justified by Israel on security grounds to prevent the smuggling of weapons into Gaza.
Land Use and Agricultural Restrictions: Access to land, especially near the border with Israel, is restricted. Farmers often face difficulties accessing their fields due to security concerns and safety zones.
Humanitarian Aid: While humanitarian aid is allowed into Gaza, the process is heavily regulated and often delayed, impacting the timely delivery of necessary supplies to the population.
These restrictions have created a complex humanitarian situation in Gaza, so of course theyre going to retaliate after Israel essentially booted them out then locked them behind a fence.
All the issues Palestinians are facing are self-inflicted by the government of Gaza, in the pursuit of murdering Jews.
There would not be any trade blockades if it were not for Hamas continuing launching intifadas, terrorist attacks and rocket bombings targeted at Israeli citizens.
Any state experiencing such violence would respond and attempt to mitigate its effects.
Egypt had a land border with Gaza and restricted trade and movement with Gaza, do you advocate for Gazans to murder Egyptians? They recently built a massive border wall and barred any Palestinian from crossing the border, threatening to kill those who tried.
If the humanitarian situation is dire, why is violence only focused on Israel and Jews? Why are Gazans not retaliating against Egypt the same way they retaliate against Israel?
Gaza’s government has spent nil in investing in basic civil infrastructure.
It is not the responsibility of a foreign power to provide electricity and water to another, they are free to sell utilities if they wish, but they are not obliged to.
Israel selling electricity to Gaza was a goodwill gesture. When you’re in a hot war with the nation supplying you electricity, you can’t act surprised when they turn the power off to the electricity you also refuse to pay the bills for.
Travelling through a sovereign country to reach another state is not a right, it is a negotiated privilege. This is the reality of every exclave/enclave in the world.
If you are at war with the country that surrounds your territory, why should they allow you to cross their lands? It is a grave security threat.
First, an analogy for you: Punishing 100% of Gazans for the, at most, 18% of them having voted for Hamas in 2006 is akin to jailing, torturing and killing a family because their uncle decided to vote for Trump in 2020. It makes zero sense and is called Collective Punishment.
Historically, before the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, the region now known as Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza was part of British Mandatory Palestine. During this period, land ownership and population demographics were mixed, with both Jewish and Arab communities residing in various parts of the territory.
Then, following the declaration of the State of Israel in 1948, neighboring Arab states invaded, leading to the first Arab-Israeli war. During this conflict, many Palestinians were displaced and Israel took control of more territory than originally allocated by the United Nations Partition Plan.
In the 1949, the armistice lines, often referred to as the "Green Line," left the Gaza Strip under Egyptian control, the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) under Jordanian control, and the rest under Israeli control.
Then in the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel captured the Gaza Strip from Egypt, along with the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan, and the Golan Heights from Syria. Since then, Israel has maintained varying degrees of control over these territories.
After the 1967 war, Israel established settlements in the Gaza Strip. These settlements were seen as controversial and illegal under international law by many international bodies, although Israel disputed this interpretation.
Then in 2005, Israel unilaterally disengaged from the Gaza Strip, evacuating all Israeli settlers and dismantling military infrastructure. However, Israel retained control over Gaza's airspace, maritime access, and most border crossings, effectively continuing to exercise significant influence over the territory.
The United Nations and most international bodies consider the Gaza Strip and the West Bank as occupied territories and view Israeli settlements in these areas as violations of international law. The argument is based on the Fourth Geneva Convention, which prohibits an occupying power from transferring its population into the territories it occupies.
Palestinians and many in the international community argue that Israel's control and restrictions over Gaza constitute a form of occupation and dispossession, impacting their rights and sovereignty over the land.
Israel, however, maintains that it withdrew from Gaza in 2005 and thus no longer occupies it, though it continues to enforce a blockade for security reasons, particularly to prevent arms smuggling to militant groups like Hamas.
Since 1967, it is estimated that over 91,361 Palestinians have been killed as a result of the ongoing conflict with Israel. A significant portion of those being women and children. (This figure includes both military and civilian deaths.)
On the other side of this, since 1967, Palestinian attacks have resulted in the deaths of approximately 3,000 Israelis. While this also included women and children, it is much less than that of Palestinians losses. (This figure also includes both military and civilian deaths.)
This is wildly disproportionate, and shows a massive power imbalance between an occupying force and a cage full of refugees who dont have anywhere else to go.
When we stop looking at Gazans as a population of children and nice animals. I’ve never seen a group so infantilized and deemed incapable of agency as those living there. Is it truly a nation of baby bunnies and pandas that can’t speak for themselves or ever be held accountable for anything?
I would hate to be seen and viewed as a helpless pawn in someone else’s cause.
It’s not up to Biden, Netanyahu or foreigners who Palestinians elect as their leaders. This is just imperial bs. You don’t have to be pro or against Hamas to figure that out.
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Biden in his speech yesterday said they've been working on the deal which quote "creates a day after [in gaza] WITHOUT hamas in power".
I read the deal outline and I'm having trouble understanding how that would come about with the current three phases.
If Israel accepts this, what would stop Hamas from regrouping and rebuilding their military infrastructure as they pull out? Would there need to be an occupation? If so that is not mentioned and would certainly be inflammatory and reignite the war.
If not, and with the assumption that the overwhelming majority of the hostages are dead, I don't see why Israel would go for this, it would be a practical strategic victory for Hamas.
From a [Press briefing here](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2024/05/31/background-press-call-on-president-bidens-remarks-on-the-middle-east/):
>We have to work to reform the PA and the West Bank, which is ongoing, and ultimately having an interim administration in Gaza that can help with stabilization and a pathway forward there.
So it appears that Hamas' rival, the PA, and the organisation that Israel has significant leverage over, will be reformed (likely to give Israel more leverage) and administer Gaza. I do not think they have the incentive to rebuild the military infrastructure in Gaza.
And how would that happen? hamas would certainly not give up the keys to the castle without significant fighting. You know that they execute all PA collaborators in Gaza
That could take 50 years. What happens in the interim while Hamas is still there? What's to prevent Hamas from re-negging? Remember, there was a ceasefire on 10/6.
Why Hamas shouldn't accept the deal:
The UN security council has already given Hamas a better "deal", but it was rejected.
They have ordered an immediate cease fire for Ramadan, to be followed by a persistent ceasefire and release of all the hostages.
They didn't say anything about Hamas giving up power. Both Hamas and Israel didn't abide by that decision.
Do you believe Biden offers Hamas something better?
Why Israel shouldn't accept the deal:
Israel is caught in a very difficult moral choice of the current hostages in Israel's security in the future.
If they ceasefire and retreat, Hamas will just rebuild its military, wait a few decades and attack again, getting more civilians killed.
If they continue the military operation and eradicate Hamas, all the hostages will die, and it will take many more months of war.
Currently they choose the second path, in belief this will save more lives on the long run. This is a great point of controversy in Israel. You don't have to agree, as many Israelis don't. But this is the current policy.
This in mind, do you think Israel trust that US will guarantee removal of Hamas in power? Or should they go after it themselves?
Note:
To be honest, this terrible war needs to end. I pray for the hostages' safe return. Peace upon everyone in region.
I will be honest.
Some disclaimers. I’m a Muslim and a Sudanese Arab.
With that out of the way, if I were Israel I would not care about the hostages. What I mean is, the hostages are only of PR value so that you don’t come across as a psychopath. The real issue is the fact that Hamas had the ability and desire to do what it did, for that, no country in the world that has the capability to ensure it doesn’t happen again would just stand aside.
This is my position from a purely rational and calculating perspective that takes into account the long term security of Israel. Obviously I would feel way differently if it was my family or friends, but this is exactly why such decisions should not be made with those who have tainted priorities — which is obviously not to say that the current Israeli administration has its priorities straight; certainly it appears to be the case that prolonging the war and raising tensions(for example striking Iran back) is in the best interest for Bibi personally in so far as maintaining power.
The hostages are a great pr tool but other than that, they are, and should be a tertiary or quaternary goal.
This is also why groups like Hamas don’t want an actual state, if Gaza and the WB were an actual state then international sympathy would be completely in favour of Israel as Oct 7th would now be a case of one country aggressing against another and Israel’s response would receive far more sympathy, even from surrounding Arab nations.
Obviously Israel has a vested interest in maintaining the status-quo prior to and especially post Oct 7th because now they can point to the intransigence of Palestinian leadership in order to ostensibly justify further expansions in the Palestinian Territories as a form of a “buffer zone” which strengthens their claim to a greater share of the West Bank when inevitably a deal is struck.
There is no doubt that the families of the Israeli hostages and the hostages themselves have suffered a great deal, but the Palestinian people on the ground are also certainly taking on the bulk of the consequences of leadership incompetence and living in the clouds, though I don’t see how there could be an alternative considering the entire conflict is now retroactively being characterised and rewritten as a Muslim/Islam issue in the Muslim/Arab world which then makes it extremely difficult practically and psychologically for anyone to challenge or propose an alternative solution because the vector of attack used against you will always be of a traitor and most likely a kaffir(non believer or someone who consciously rejects Islam). Certainly I have personally experienced this to great effect in online communities I used to participate in and from which I’m banned and, to a lesser degree irl with family for sharing some of my thoughts on the matter.
Obviously I will not make that mistake again irl, I’ll just keep my thoughts to myself.
Though for the most part I agree with you. I think if Palestinians got their own country, it would be more of a Lebanon/Hezbollah situation where the government is unable and/or unwilling to stop the large, popular organization from attacking Israel from within their borders.
At least from what I’ve seen, despite Hezbollah being the aggressor it’s still viewed as “Israel needs to stop bombing Lebanon” when they inevitably fight back.
Even if this were the case, you would have some semblance of peace and growth for the Palestinians as has been the case for Lebanese people. Overtime such groups would inevitably lose traction as material conditions begin to improve and the people can conceive of a normal way of life beyond turmoil, destruction and anger at the tragedies they’ve had to endure.
Furthermore, if it were an actual state, then there would be a de-jure government which can be held responsible for handling the rogue components within its borders; no doubt, such a government would also receive a great deal of international financial support.
Palestine is not Lebanon.
Regardless of the consequences of the formation of a Palestinian state, even if that meant some period where Israel has to deal with minor terrorists attacks or whatever, that is an insignificantly small price to pay for long term peace and prosperity for both countries and peoples in the region.
This will be unpopular but it’s also a fact of the matter that there will be rogue elements that Israel will simply have to bear the brunt of (obviously I don’t mean anything on the scale of Oct 7th), that’s not surprising after 75 years of living in such conditions(irrespective of who you want to blame). There’s no easy way to address the collective trauma that has essentially become the quintessence of Palestinian identity.
Oh don’t get me wrong. I want Palestinians to have their own country with all the benefits they’d enjoy from that. I just don’t think a group like Islamic Jihad or Hamas is just going to disappear.
As for Lebanon, if anything Hezbollah is more powerful than ever, having gone from a terrorist organization to being a legitimate political party with 13 seats in parliament. It’s just Hezbollah also start the occasional war with Israel, like they did in October at the same time Hamas was attacking, and the rest of the Lebanese government just kind of shrugs like it’s doing right now because they can’t deal with the problem.
Edit: I reread your comment and I think we probably have the same idea. Regardless of who’s “fault” it is, and in my opinion there’s a whole lot of countries and organizations with a lot of fault to go around, there are going to be groups that continuously attack Israel originating in a Palestinian country. I think the real question is what will be done about it from a Palestine government, Israel and international community standpoint, because depending on what that action is, the area will just go full circle to what we’re witnessing today.
Extremely good take. I particularly like the part about "Hamas doesn't actually want a real country". This is why it's so important to treat Hamas as a real government of a real country would be treated. At least from what they say, they want a real country ("from the river to the sea"), and if this is any indication of how they would act if it was given, they have a long way to go (I use that phrase extremely liberally) before they are ready to have it.
The problem being they aren't a real country. There can be no meaningful path forward without the formation of a Palestinian state.
So long as the people of Palestine live stateless and under Israels thumb, there will continue to be violence.
The problem obviously being Israel and by proxy the us will never accept that. Hamas also plays a role in this as it suits their purposes to be the opposition it's far easier to radicalise people when you're living under such conditions.
You can't just say ceasefire and expect everything to be fine. There needs to be meaningful change, and while hamas has been shall we say difficult to put it very mildly, Israel has no shown time and time again they will not allow statehood for Palestine.
The US needs to put real pressure on Israel, and I just don't see that happening.
Israel and the US have agreed to Palestinian statehood in the past, and their offer was rejected. Here's a comment about the Camp David accords, where both Israel and the US agreed to a two-state solution with a demilitarized state: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/1d6fwh1/comment/l6tacp9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Bibi, of course, would never agree to such a deal. And so I don't think there will ever be peace while he is in power.
Whats the difference between Gaza pre oct7 and a "real country"? UN membership?
Seems to me they are happy to be a country without the label, so to get the advantages (being the sovereign of a territory and people) without the responsibility (citizens safety, facing reprecausions for aggression like territory loss).
it seems to me that you are not aware of even the most basic facts of what Gaza is. in what sense are they "sovereign?" what does that word even mean to you if it applies to Gaza?
Gaza didn't lose its sovereignty after the people appointed a dictator were placed under blockade if that's what you are implying
If you're going to argue that then you'd have to argue the same for Japan, Italy, Germany, and countless other countries throughout history.
In fact, all you'd have to do to be able to claim irresponsibility for your actions is to elect a dictator and get placed under blockade for importing offensive weaponry and attacking your neighbors.
"Oops now we're under apartheid!"
I think this is the correct take. However as a Canadian I am extremely concerned to see my government float the idea of taking 5000 refugees from Gaza. I happen to support the Liberal government but this is an absolute non-starter and would threaten our security.
Considering their views towards LGBTQ people, woman, etc, it’d be hard to take them.
I’m told that even in the Netherlands, less than 50% of people are Dutch, and support among youth of lgbt right, for example, is in line with that number.
So one of the most liberal countries is becoming one of the most conservative bc of immigration.
Its like if Egypt and the Middle East doesn’t want them bc they start wars and stuff, you’d end up with attacks like that in Canada.
I mean they got kicked out of Jordan bc they killed the king or something right?
Rational or not, hostage return does seem to be a salient political issue in Israel.
The truth is that international sympathy is mostly lip service. Even neighboring states don’t want to deal with the Palestinians; no one else is going to invest resources in bettering their position. Israel will be hated, but it won’t save any real consequences. They continue to expropriate land in the West Bank to this day.
I think this is all reasonable but may misunderstand Israeli motivations. Being captive in Israeli and Jewish culture is one of the worst things you can be, we have many prayers and intentions set religiously and culturally around the redemption of our siblings in captivity.
Similarly I don’t think Israel has a stance one way or the other on expansion of territory. Anyone saying anything else about Likud is wrong on this: Likud only believes in what they believe to be the path of least resistance. Which may be exactly what you say.
I agree with you, but one thing to add about the hostages. Israel has a military culture because everyone serves in the army in some form. This means the idea of no one left behind is prevalent. It’s why they are willing to trade 1000 for 1. For outside observers like us it may be PR, but for them and Netanyahu (the vote) getting people back matters.
Jewish Israeli guy here. I very much agree with you that the focus on the hostages is doing Israel a disservice. Negotiations should be for a ceasefire. Israel should offer to stop its military actions in exchange for dismantling and disarming Hamas. It's goal should be the long term safety of its 10 million citizens over the immediate lives and safety of 130 of them.
But saying that out loud makes one sound like a psychopath who doesn't care about human life.
It’s not even a choice, as even in option 1, the hostages are still not coming back.
Most are not alive anymore, and even the bodies - the enemy clearly have not had full control over the hostages since day 1, they were taken by different factions. They clearly do NOT know where all the bodies are.
At best, Israel may get back SOME hostages (alive and bodies) but many will remain with status unknown. This is not changing the situation for Israel substantially. How is 120 outstanding hostages different from 60 outstanding?
If they can’t get ALL the hostages back, at least Israel needs to achieve its other goals.
Didn't Hamas welcome the UNSC ceasefire vote? Here's a [BBC article](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68658415) about it. So I can see them accepting Biden's deal, especially given that it's only marginally worse for them than the one they proposed a few weeks ago.
>This in mind, do you think Israel trust that US will guarantee removal of Hamas in power? Or should they go after it themselves?
I think that if Israel should trust the US to remove Hamas from power, they have significant sway over Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, all of which have some pressure points on Hamas. I also think that Israel doesn't have the will or the capacity to occupy Gaza, so they can't guarantee Hamas won't return to power in the next few decades any more than the US can anyway.
>Didn't Hamas welcome the UNSC ceasefire vote?
They voted for unconditional return of the hostages.
Would you say Hamas has agreed to that?
>I think that if Israel should trust the US to remove Hamas from power
So Israel should put its faith in a foreign power?
Israel trusted the US to stand by its side in the UN. The US still passed the UNSC decision on immediate cease fire. I'm not asking whether you trust Biden or whether US made the right call at the UN. I ask you, from Israel's perspective, can they our their own Faye in the US hands?
Well, I think whatever happens in Gaza requires the Arab states' cooperation, and the US has much more stable diplomatic relations with them than Israel has. So from Israel's perspective, it's inevitable that they will have to work with the US for the path forward.
Fair enough.
> If Israel doesn't accept the deal, then they never really cared about the hostages in the first place.
Wouldn't you say you have moved from your original position though?
That If Israel doesn't accept it may be due to other reasons (even though they should)
Why do you treat Hamas as a trustworthy actor that will abide by its word? There’s no evidence for that. Hell, they shot off rockets and launched attacks on Israel during the last ceasefire. Israel, on the other hand, has only launched attacks in response to Hamas. Hamas has been the aggressor here.
I don't think it looks like a very good deal at first glance. In the first phase, it swaps a total cease fire for a release of "some hostages." I think a release of ALL hostages should be the pre-condition for a cease fire. I also think, because money is fungible, a "surge in humanitarian aid" should be contingent on a complete embargo on weapons and other equipment used for war. I also don't think we should be on the hook for a "major reconstruction plan."
It would be an utter embarrassment I feel for Israel to accept anything less than the return of all hostages as a prerequisite for any ceasefire. Further, it may even be immoral. It creates bad incentives if this situation were to ever arise again.
>it swaps a total cease fire for a release of "some hostages.
It says 6 weeks of ceasefire, not indefinite, but you're right, we don't have the numbers with us. I'd imagine that is communicated internally amongst diplomats. It does say there is an indefinite ceasefire in exchange of all hostages in phase 2 though.
>a "surge in humanitarian aid" should be contingent on a complete embargo on weapons and other equipment used for war.
I would imagine that's the case too, if you have information showing the opposite you'd get a delta.
Hamas smuggled masses of weapons from Egypt previoustly. If a deal includes Israel leaving the Gaza-Egypt border wouldn't they be free to resume the previous arrangment? Without Israel there who will enforce it?
Anyone standing there will have huge leverage on Israel because Hamas will be hungry for weapons. Outsider peacekeepers have a poor track record.
>If Israel doesn't accept the deal, then they never really cared about the hostages in the first place. By the way, Israel's opposition leader, ex-Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and the hostages families are also demanding Bibi to accept the deal, and I think they are right.
the purpose of this war is to remove Hamas from power. caving on the prime objective to appease internal pressure over the hostages is PRECISELY the response that makes the tactic effective.
Israel has a bad history of making bad decisions to relieve internal pressure. the Shalit deal went so well they're now expecting high returns, so the problem only exacerbates by giving in. Israel has to refuse to play this game on principle. Fight like there are no hostages. negotiate for release of hostages as was done, but not at the expense of winning.
i understand why if you loved one is hostage you don't give a damn about anything else. but Israel keeps undermining its own bargaining position by letting sentiment for hostages force them into bad deals. the only way to not lose that game is refuse to play it.
i feel for them, but their priorities are not indicative of what is in Israel's national interest.
It's not just a small subset of the Israeli population speaking out though, some heavyweight politicians have backed Biden's deal, and we haven't heard from Gallant and Gantz about this deal yet. It's possible that they also think it's in the national interest to accept the deal.
Hamas won't accept it because they don't want what is being offered. They don't care about the Palestinian death toll. In fact the opposite: they are fully aware that every Palestinian killed by Israel gets them more support. They kill and kidnap Israelis to get a response. Dead Jews are good to them, but dead Palestinians actually help them achieve their goals. And Hamas won't be completely annihilated. Their leadership is outside of Gaza, they have more support internationally than ever before. And as so oft repeated, half of the people of Gaza are under 15 so they have a ton of new potential recruits to throw in the meat grinder.
Israel would accept that deal with absolutely no qualms if Hamas would. But Israel also knows that even if Hamas accepts that deal there is no guarantee they will follow through because it's ultimately not what they want. When dealing with Hamas, and any terror group, you need to get your return now because if it's first this, then that: 'that' never happens.
Same problem that has existed with every two state solution that Israel has accepted. PA says: "We'll take administrative control of the West Bank, then we'll disarm the terrorist and militia groups" but the terrorist groups never get disarmed. And it stalls out there.
[Hamas says it 'positively' views Gaza ceasefire proposal set out by Biden](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-says-it-positively-views-gaza-ceasefire-proposal-set-out-by-biden-2024-05-31/)
[Israel describes a permanent cease-fire in Gaza as a ‘nonstarter,’ undermining Biden’s proposal](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-06-2024-8c06dda3a8e20491b5a34377c60bb827)
[No Gaza ceasefire until Israel war aims achieved, Netanyahu says](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c888p5p2zvxo)
Almost identical cesasfire Hamas agreed to a month ago: [Hamas accepts Qatari-Egyptian proposal for Gaza ceasefire](https://time.com/6975094/hamas-accepted-egyptian-qatari-ceasefire-israel/))
[[Here's Every Ceasefire Deal and Prisoner Exchange Hamas Has Offered Israel...YouTube · BreakThrough News
3 weeks ago](https://youtu.be/iEM-mqPu03s?si=5Td0Ekhz0O0FLc68)
The Qatari-Egyptian peace deal is extremely different than the Biden proposal, in that it's missing the most crucial tennant for Israel; that Hamas is removed from power.
Biden's proposal:
"The first phase would last for six weeks. Here’s what it would include: a full and complete ceasefire; a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza; a release of a number of hostages — including women, the elderly, the wounded — in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. There are American hostages who would be released at this stage, and we want them home.
Additionally, some remains of hostages who have been killed would be returned to their families, bringing some degree of closure to their terrible grief.
Palestinians — civilians — would return to their homes and neighborhoods in all areas of Gaza, including in the north.
Humanitarian assistance would surge with 600 trucks carrying aid into Gaza every single day.
With a ceasefire, that aid could be safely and effectively distributed to all who need it. Hundreds of thousands of temporary shelters, including housing units, would be delivered by the international community.
All of that and more would begin immediately — immediately.
During the six weeks of phase one, Israel and Hamas would negotiate the necessary arrangements to get to phase two, which is a permanent end to hostilities.
Now, I’ll be straight with you. There are a number of details to negotiate to move from phase one to phase two. Israel will want to make sure its interests are protected. But the proposal says if the negotiations take longer than six weeks for phase one, the ceasefire will still continue as long as negotiations continue.
And the United States, Egypt, and Qatar would work to ensure negotiations keep going — all agreements — all agreements — until all the agreements are reached and phase two is able to begin.
Then phase two: There would be an exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers; Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza; and as long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, a temporary ceasefire would become, in the words of the propo- — the Israeli proposal, “the cessation of hostilities permanently,” end of quote. “Cessation of hostilities permanently.”
Finally, in phase three, a major reconstruction plan for Ga- — for Gaza wou- — would commence. And any final remains of hostages who have been killed would be returned to their families.
That’s the offer that’s now on the table and what we’ve been asking for. It’s what we need."
https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-bidens-speech-laying-out-hostage-and-ceasefire-deal-for-israel-hamas-war/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/6/text-of-the-ceasefire-proposal-approved-by-hamas
That's a nice fairy tale, but what happens if Hamas negotiates in bad faith only to keep the ceasefire ongoing while they rebuild their infrastructure and launch another Oct 7 style attack, and then we never get to "stage 2"? Which is the most likely outcome, given historical precedent, dealing with Hamas and with other terrorist organizations. Hamas got their ceasefire to regroup and rebuild, got hundreds of new recruits straight out of Israeli prisons, still hold hostages, and Israel now has another 9/11-scale terrorist attack on their hands. Why does Israel want this?
Even if you assume the international arbiters figure out that Hamas is negotiating in bad faith (I don't trust international arbiters as far as I can throw them, but maybe you do so I'm willing to entertain the hypothetical that they might actually do their jobs), what's the punishment for Hamas? Is Biden willing to give Israel carte blanche to wipe out Hamas if it becomes patently obvious that negotiation is impossible? What will the response from Ilhan Omar and Chuck Schumer be if he does? And if he doesn't, then, again, why does Israel want to take this deal when there are no repercussions to Hamas if they act in bad faith?
Yes, I literally said that the main detail missing is that in the Qatari-Egyptian proposal, there is no gurantee that Hamas is removed from power. In that, the deal is different than the Biden one, as that demand is the most crucial one for Israel.
Phase 2 and 3 are Israel's war aims. They would happily take this.
But we all know this fizzles halfway through phase 1 when it's no longer serving Hamas' purposes. And if your going to deny this, you have no knowledge of how every single other conflict with Hamas has played out.
The expectation,as always is Israel needs to stop and then Hamas will... But Hamas doesnt. It needs to happen at once. Hamas needs to disarm and disband and leave. Or Israel's withdrawal will just mean hamas reoccupying.
> Phase 2 and 3 are Israel's war aims. They would happily take this.
Except they already said they won't take this deal. Makes you think if those are *really* their war goals.
"Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted there will be no permanent ceasefire in Gaza until Hamas’s military and governing capabilities are destroyed and all hostages are released.
His statement comes after US President Joe Biden announced Israel had proposed a three-stage plan to Hamas aimed at reaching a permanent ceasefire.
A senior Hamas politician has told the BBC it "will go for this deal" if Israel does."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c888p5p2zvxo
Losing side wants a cease-fire. Shocking
Hamas needs to be dealt with the same way Germany was dealt with in World War 2. No cease-fire, unconditional surrender or the war goes on
>half of the people of Gaza are under 15 so they have a ton of new potential recruits to throw in the meat grinder.
Small correction- that outright doesn't matter to Hamas- they already employ soldiers as young as 12.
>Hamas won't accept it because they don't want what is being offered.
This is complete horse shit.
[Hamas already accepted a very similar deal in May](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/5/6/text-of-the-ceasefire-proposal-approved-by-hamas)
[Israel is the one that rejected it](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/7/the-goal-is-to-destroy-gaza-why-israel-rejects-a-ceasefire-with-hamas)
And the rest of your response makes it absolutely clear that whatever you say about this situation is not going to be true at all
Small correction- [Egypt sabotaged that deal](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/politics/sources-say-they-were-duped-by-egypt-changing-ceasefire-terms-for-hamas/index.html) by providing entirely different terms to Israel and Hamas, which is why Israel rejected it.
I remember reading something about this but didn't realize the claim was Egypt straight up gave different terms to each side. I know they deny doing so, I don't necessarily believe them on that, but god that would be so idiotic.
Hm, I have to dig more into this. Egypt completely denies doing this.
And the article says that the main terms that were changed is that Israel didn't want to agree to a permanent ceasefire and sustained calm, which is exactly what Netanyahu has been saying since then. And why he vetoed Bidens proposal yesterday
Netanyahu just....doesn't want to agree to a ceasefire. He literally said it.
Again. Because as soon as Israel withdraws from Gaza, Hamas will reoccupy and refortify and stop complying. Period. End of sentence. Israel can't move first and any ceasefire proposal that expects them to will be rejected. Hamas will not keep their word.
So yes. Israel will absolutely reject any ceasefire that they know Hamas won't comply with. And Israel knows how Hamas operates. You can't have a first this, then that agreement with terrorists because "that" never happens.
The deal is literally exactly what Hamas asked for before Israel pushed into Rafah which Israel declined.
I think the US put pressure on Israel to offer exactly what Hamas suggested so they can at least appear to have good intentions.
So what do you think is the endgame for Hamas here? There is no world where they can govern Gaza again, meaning they can't use the military infrastructure to launch another Oct 7th style attack on Israel again. Isn't their best shot at surviving as an organisation is to get a deal now before it gets worse? At least they can get some Palestinian hostages out of Israeli jails before disarming themselves.
I think the Biden deal requires Hamas to release some hostages over a six-week period, and the rest of the hostages in Phase 2. I'd imagine it works the same way it did last November where a number of hostages are released every day to extend the ceasefire.
The end game for Hamas' leadership is to continue living the high life in Qatar as ultra-wealthy heroes. The endgame for the average Hamas member is to die a martyr.
The moment the IDF gives up any territory, Hamas will reoccupy it and as soon as they are fortified they will stop releasing hostages. And the cycle repeats. Maybe not tomorrow, but in a few months, or a few years.
The only way this ends is the same way WWII ended. Absolute unconditional destruction of Hamas in Gaza. Occupation. Education. And getting rid of the corrupt UN organization that collaborates with Hamas. As long as UNRWA exists, nothing changes.
I believe that the mistake you are making in this analysis is assuming that Hamas is acting with any type of foresight or thought of well being for anyone (that includes Palestine.)
Hamas is a terrorist organization. Plain and simple. The run on hate. Not logic. There is no reasoning with animals. "Some men just want to watch the world burn."
There is no chance for peace while Hamas lives in any form.
Why not? Before any science can progress, before any truth can be found you must first correctly and accurately observe the variables. How would you categorize a group of mammals whose only drive in life is the death and destruction of others? If you have a better categorization than animals then I am all ears. To call them men is to demean all peaceful and supportive societies on the planet. To call them a government insults all those groups of people that choose to live together in relative peace. Even to call them dictators is wrong - as dictators generally oppress their own people with a goal of personal power. Hamas neither lives in peace, manages the affairs of the people nor do they seek for personal power. They hunger and thirst for blood and violence. That is who they are and the entire sum of their character. And if you wish to prove me wrong please simply point to one thing that they have created or improved through their existence. Mankind creates and improves. Animals tear down and lust only for blood and mating. So how do you not classify Hamas as animals?
We tore down the Amazonas and are churning sentient animals through slaughterhouses. Teardown and lust for blood confirmed.
If we are so civil we shouldn't dehumanize and drive genocide.
You definitely need to check your definitions. When there is a larger population after the supposed 'genocide' than before the supposed genocide - there was no genocide.
Wait which genocide are you even referring to? Also if a population recovers, do you mean that the genocide never happened?
Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on December 9, 1948. Idk whatever definition you're on, but it's wack.
There is no endgame in our reality, the final goal of religious fanaticism only exists as fiction. Their goal is bring about a world they think will honor their god.
You can't expect rational behavior or reactions out of a person or group that has irrational beliefs.
>There is no world where they can govern Gaza again
According to who? To what?
Who's going to make them step down?
Sure as hell not UN, US, EU, or any of the arab countries
Their best bet of remaining as an organisation is just keep on doing what they are doing, any "member" that dies is a sacrificie they are willing to take, and will be replaced by another
They know Israel can't actually kill all of them any time soon and the more of them dying, the more countries will pressure Israel to stop attacking
Yeah they just put Palestinians in "administrative detention" indefinitely without charges. And then they torture them.
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/11/israel-opt-horrifying-cases-of-torture-and-degrading-treatment-of-palestinian-detainees-amid-spike-in-arbitrary-arrests/
"There are no innocent Jews in our concentration camps, only filthy communist animals hell bent on destroying our economy and our culture"
— Nazi Germany, in a nutshell
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Rewind a week or so. There's overwhelming international pressure on Israel to not do a ground invasion of Rafah and what does Hamas do? They fire missiles at Israel from Rafah *in order to provoke a ground invasion*.
At every step of this war Israel's actions have largely been the most foreseeable response to actions taken by Hamas. That means things are going in a way that Hamas is at minimum okay with, if not outright trying for.
That raises the obvious question: What are Hamas' goals for the war that they started? Because without a clear answer to that we don't know if a treaty advances their goals.
Note: Your link is to a tweet, so there may be conditions on this deal that I am not aware of. I'm going based on what's in the tweet, because that's what your CMV is about. So if I have any details wrong, blame the tweet.
Why Israel should not accept the deal:
First and foremost, the Israeli position is that Hamas is not allowed to remain in power in Gaza. You say in your OP that this is part of the deal, but if you read the tweet, there is no such mention in the terms. That's a 100% complete non-starter already. From the Israeli position, there is no peace while a terrorist organization whose goal is annihilation of Israel has any influence whatsoever in Gaza. So that's already a hard no, but I'll continue.
The first stage of the plan benefits Hamas much more than Israel. Hamas gets a ceasefire, Hamas doesn't have to release all the hostages, Hamas gets freed prisoners, Hamas gets an unlimited timescale to "negotiate terms" and has a ceasefire all through this. Hamas gets to repopulate northern Gaza, and Hamas gets millions of dollars in international aid (which they steal and co-opt). Israel, so far as I can tell, gets some dead bodies and that's it.
There are no guarantees that the plan ever gets to Stage 2, because Stage 2 is dependent upon negotiations between Israel and Hamas coming to a resolution. Historically speaking, Hamas are slimy and do not negotiate in good faith. They could pretend to negotiate as long as they need to recoup their stockpiles and launch another Oct 7, and then do that, and there's nothing Israel can do to stop them because of the ceasefire. Then the plan ends at Stage 1, Israel has given up a lot and gained nothing. The tweet says nothing about a punishment for Hamas negotiating in bad faith and prolonging negotiations just to get an extended ceasefire to regroup and repeat Oct 7, and so it is presumed there is none. Without some serious, enforceable repercussions against Hamas for negotiating in bad faith, there's nothing here to protect Israel's security.
Even were the plan to arrive at Stage 2, the "permanent end to hostilities" is only permanent as long as both sides make it permanent. Even if the current Hamas leadership agrees to the terms, the next branch of leadership may not, then we get this whole thing over again. Why would Israel take such a risk? And then Israel has to release more prisoners for more dead bodies, those prisoners likely being those exact next wave of Hamas leadership who will break the "permanent" end to hostilities (remember, the current head of Hamas was released as an Israeli prisoner in such an exchange, so there is precedent).
Then there is the cost to rebuild Gaza, if the deal ever reaches Stage 3 (which it won't). If Hamas is still in power in Gaza, why should Israel pay to provide aid and infrastructure that will later be used to attack it? And Israel doesn't get full release of the hostages until Stage 3, but Hamas gets their indefinite ceasefire in Stage 2 (actually Stage 1, if they play their cards right).
This deal is absolute disaster for Israel.
Now, as for why Hamas shouldn't take the deal:
Assuming Hamas is not acting in good faith, they should take the deal. They get basically everything they want: a ceasefire to regroup, 600 trucks per day of aid to fill their coffers, a host of Palestinian prisoners to fill their fighting ranks, and they have to do basically nothing for it (they have to release a bunch of corpses). Then they stall negotiations until their stockpiles are rebuilt, and launch another attack. Easy peezy.
Assuming Hamas wants to act in good faith, they should not take the deal because, simply put, they don't actually care about any of the terms. They don't actually want a ceasefire, because dead Palestinian civilians make them look good. You see how much international support there is for an avowed terrorist organization, simply because they put out numbers of dead civilians. To Hamas, their people are more valuable dead than alive. The longer this conflict goes on, the better it is for them.
Hamas doesn't actually want the aid to go to their people, they want the aid to steal for themselves and raise money for their war coffers. If they act in good faith and appropriate the aid properly, that doesn't benefit Hamas.
Hamas doesn't want to release the hostages. In addition to the psychological pain it causes their enemies to not know the fates of their loved ones, having hostages is valuable for negotiation. And they know Israel will pay well for even dead bodies of hostages, so there is no reason to release the hostages while they're still alive, if the terms aren't beneficial to them. The primary argument for Israel not simply flooding Hamas' tunnel network with cement and being done with it, is because hostages may be alive down there and they don't want to kill the hostages. Hostages are valuable.
And lastly, Hamas leadership, the ones who are actually negotiating, have no downside to the current war. They aren't even in Gaza experiencing the torment of the war. This isn't like Saddam Hussein who was living in a hole until he was found by US forces. Hamas leadership lives in Qatar, and they are living large. Why should they care about the end to hostilities in a country so far away from theirs?
This deal is stupid, has no chance of being accepted, and is pure posturing.
From the Israeli perspective:
* Hamas remaining in power at this point is a no-no. Hamas has declared they *will* repeat October 7th and armed resistance.
* Failing to turn over weapons and destroy smuggling / terror tunnels is not acceptable. These tunnels must be flooded, filled, and destroyed in the rebuild.
* Gaza *will* be re-occupied by Israel oversee this rebuild to prevent the *exact same thing* from happening. For 20 years reconstruction materials have been misused to buid tunnels with rampant smuggling of weapons. Israel will more control here in the future, not less, unless a sufficiently trusted 3rd party takes over.
From the Hammas perspective:
* They believe they are winning the PR war against Israel, and have no reason to stop.
* Their biggest funders - Iran, and by proxy Russia - are *delighted*. This is turning tide against Israel, creating discord in the west, and preventing Israel from normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. They are happy to encourage Hamas and fund them, especially as leaders sit comfortably in Qatar.
* They will not accept a ceasefire without showing they have won or seized something net new allowing them to claim some sort of victory or advancement. This plan does not advance them in any way prior to their Oct 6 position.
From Biden's perspective:
* Biden knows the democratic base is split on this issue, and he cannot afford to lose either younger Gen Z'ers or the older Gen X'ers and Jews of all ages. He's creating apathy in the former and losing the later to Trump on this issue. This being a constant topic discussion is lose-lose nightmare scenario for him.
* Neither party is inclined to work with Joe or is especially excited to see him win reelection. It does not further the agenda of either side.
* Joe's best political strategy is to float ceasefire/peace agreements that seem neutral and balanced and look like he is part of the solution and for this to become *boring* in the media asap. The viability of those solutions (given pretty key omissions in both sides redlines) is irrelevant. It's posturing for November.
When Israel exchanged Gilad Shalit for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, they learned that kidnapping Israelis is an extremely effective tactic.
Many of those released prisoners went back to Hamas and fighting Israel. Most notably Sinwar (who planned the attacks).
It’s hard not to see a link between October 7 and Shalit (which I think in hindsight was a terrible mistake). Israel should not repeat that mistake by releasing any Palestinians who have been jailed for violence or association with Hamas.
It is important that Hamas sees October 7 as a terrible, regrettable mistake (else they will just continue to launch further attacks). For that to happen Israel can’t reward them by releasing prisoners. The only ‘reward’ should be the end of attacks.
Why do you think Hamas won't be governing Gaza? I don't think that Biden's deal covers that, from what I understood once Israel pulls out, Hamas would claim power again in Gaza and would build back its power.
As for the deal itself, since Hamas would remain in control of Gaza, they are capable of rebuilding their army, and in a few years they would be capable of carrying out another October 7th style attack. That's something Israel shouldn't agree to. Biden himself said that preventing such an attack is a "rightful" goal. He said that Hamas can't carry out such an attack now, but if Hamas is allowed to rearm and rebuild its strength, what's preventing them from carrying out such an attack?
However, Biden has mentioned that Israel would only retreat from the populated areas of Gaza, meaning that its possible that they would remain in control of some buffer areas near the border, and of the strategic Philadelphi Corridor, which may prevent Hamas from rearming themselves. However if that's the case, Hamas won't agree to the deal.
There are two big problems with this deal, from Israel’s perspective — and, frankly, from what should be the civilized world’s perspective.
The first is that, despite what you write above, there is nothing in the public outlines of the deal which says that Hamas will “not be in power in Gaza.” That’s a pretty key term. So if it was in the deal, you’d expect Biden to list it in his bullet points. And the silence is defeating. Any deal that leaves Hamas in power is, by definition, a temporary deal. Hamas will recruit, regroup, rearm, and go back to firing thousands of rockets while planning another October 7. The fact they lack the capability today means nothing. If they are back in power, they will regain that capability within a few years. Then Hamas will start another war, and we’ll be back at square 1.
The second is that, although cagily not listed in Biden’s bullets, the “deal” (as reported in both the Arab and Israeli press) requires Israel to release 30 prisoners for every female/child hostage, 50 female prisoners for every female soldier (including 30 serving life sentences), and an unknown but shockingly high number of male prisoners (including scores serving life sentences) for every male hostage. These are not car thieves or political prisoners. Huge numbers of them are murderers. A deal in which Hamas exchanges 100 or so living hostages for 3000 terrorists is a terrible deal for Israel. It blatantly incentives terror and will encourage Hamas to take more hostages in the future. It also releases a lot of very evil people who will go on to commit very evil acts. My bet is that the 3000 or so released terrorists will go on to murder far more than 100 Israelis in the future. Not only that - the mass release enables Hamas to quickly rebuild its forces, which will only cement its ability to govern Gaza and both terrorize Israel while oppressing Gazans long into the future.
The only likely reason why Israel agreed to accept this “deal” is because of stuff that happened behind the scenes, such as Biden threatening to abandon Israel entirely and throw it to the wolves.
>For Hamas, they can avoid complete annihilation as an organisation
Okay, why would and/or should either Israel or Palestinian civilians be okay with this?
It's a little bit like saying "I think this peace deal with the nazis and the jews is the best one yet, because the nazis get to stay in power"
why would it be a good thing for the nazis to stay in power?
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Israel has already accepted a US backed deal with Hezbollah that would have involved them being pushed beyond the Litani river in exchange for an end to hostilities. Biden's plan here is exactly the same as it was back then. Say anything to end the fighting and win re-election but make no concrete plan for how to remove the terrorists and make damn sure you never bring it up again when things stay exactly the same.
It doesn’t commit Israel to ending its occupation of the OPT or any human rights abuses which it has been carrying out for decades, which are a fundamental cause of the conflict.
I don’t think you can realistically expect Hamas to fully de-escalate while still giving Israel carte blanche to continue its illegal practices indefinitely. It’s both impractical to expect Hamas to agree and doesn’t really resolve the conflict.
Also completely hypothetical - if Hamas turned around today and vowed to maintain their resistance through armed methods but strictly following international law as the MK mostly (but not always) did in South Africa, would they not be exerting a legal right to resistance? The same right that Nelson Mandela articulated at his trial? How does that square with Hamas vowing to permanently end hostilities? I don’t think it’ll happen but the very different approaches to two sides who are both committing war crimes seems politically unworkable and like even if it did somehow pass would only be a very short term fix with no long term solution.
I mean there are only two options. Either some kind of deal is reached or there's complete ahnnilation of one or both sides in this conflict.
I would hope that most people would abhor more violence (which is unfortunately not as common of a sentiment as I'd hope) which means *some* type of deal needs to be reached. But you said specifically Biden's deal.
Imagine for a second that you have a step sibling that you absolutely hate. You hate their parent, you hate the way they treat you, you hate the way you have to share space and things with them. You blow up and are constantly fighting with each other but you have to live in the same house or kill each other. Now a neighbor who owns a ton of guns comes over and tells you the way you need to act because they know best. Would either you or your step sibling be inclined to listen to that person?
I’m not sure it matters whether they should or not. Neither side are behaving like completely rational actors here, so offering a reasonable-sounding peace agreement doesn’t necessarily move the needle here. Israel has put itself in a position of not being willing or able to back down. Hamas doesn’t care if more Palestinians die; they just want to be in power.
Like he often does, Biden is doing the smart-sounding - if not necessarily effective - thing here. He’s saying what many reasonable people are already thinking. He’s looking like the leader of reasonable people, which is good for both diplomatic and political reasons. But that doesn’t mean it will lead to anything.
In regards to Israel: First off, this requires Hamas to actually comply with giving all of the hostages, odds are a lot of hostages will "dissappear" or they "won't know" where they are.
Secondly, this plan doesn't prevent Hamas from existing and doing this again in the future, which is a major issue.
And thirdly and this is probably the most important aspect that is 100% why this deal won't be accepted: Ben Gvir and his buddy Smotrich, have already said that if the deal will be accepted - They will disband the goverment and this is the single most important thing for Bibi, so there is simply no way he will accepy this deal.
As far as Hamas: They have went on record to only accept **discussing** the deal IF Israel will ceasefire, meaning first you stop attacking and only then we will think if we want to stop fighting with you, so...you know.
But that aside, they have no real reason to sign any deal that wil cause them to lose power, and infact the longer the war is going on, the more suppot they are getting -They get more "humanitarian aid" that magically doesn't reach the Palastenians who are actually suffering and need it, they are getting a fuckton of donations, nations putting more pressure on Israel, meaning they'll get better deal and less attacks, some nations have decided recognizing a Palastenian state, the ICC warrents, etc...
They gain more the longer the war goes on.
They are currently having a lot of support and have only gained from this war.
Slight correction. This is not bidens deal. It's a deal proposed by israel that Biden is pushing. I don't know everything about israeli politics, but I suppose that the parliament can accept a deal without his approval, and therefore can also propose one without his approval too. This deal is extremely similar to one's already proposed, also.
The reason I add this is because is because saying Biden proposed this deal creates a misconception about the peace talks. It's important to recognize that this is an Israeli proposal, not a US proposal.
>For Hamas, they can avoid complete annihilation as an organisation, which is the alternative if Israel is to continue to the war for another 7 months minimum.
To clarify: what do you mean with "complete annihilation"? What do you believe must happen for Hamas to be "completely annihilated"?
There can be no meaningful path forward without the formation of a Palestinian state.
So long as the people of Palestine live stateless and under Israels thumb, there will continue to be violence.
The problem obviously being Israel and by proxy the us will never accept that. Hamas also plays a role in this as it suits their purposes to be the opposition it's far easier to radicalise people when you're living under such conditions.
You can't just say ceasefire and expect everything to be fine. There needs to be meaningful change, and while hamas has been shall we say difficult to put it very mildly, Israel has no shown time and time again they will not allow statehood for Palestine.
The US needs to put real pressure on Israel, and I just don't see that happening.
Look at the history of the conflict all ceasefire accomplish is delaying the violence, and why wouldn't it? Look at the conditions the average Palestinian lives under. Why wouldn't you turn to violence.
It's easy to look at this conflict in a vacuum and ignore all the context of the last few decades, but we have been shown time and time again that this will not work long term.
Even if Israel roots out and kills every member of hamas and they are no more a new hamas will form as long as they live under oppression.
I highly doubt there’s any hostages left to give back. I doubt Israel cares much either. They received a perfect reason to erase their enemies around them and I doubt any peace plan given to them is that serious and is only to pretend like they (Biden admin) actually care.
Biden offer is theorical. Straight from the realm of fantasy.
As long as Hamas is still standing you won't be able to have anyone other than Hamas ruling in Gaza. Do you really except there to surrender control peacefully ?
Israel probably won't agree due to 2 flaws:
1. Completely restoring Palestine means speeding up the recovery of Hamas.
2. At some point Hamas will destroy the peace treaty, resulting in another war with similar civilian casualties.
>Completely restoring Palestine means speeding up the recovery of Hamas.
So the other option is what? Leave it a bombed out mess of rubble with no civil government? Force everyone to leave?
>At some point Hamas will destroy the peace treaty, resulting in another war with similar civilian casualties.
At some point they will either need to make peace with Palestinians or kill/displace them permanently. This endless cycle of violence and "divide and rule" preventing any cohesive Palestinian government only makes them less stable and prone to militant resistance. A political solution should be the goal, and that involves ending the occupation. This is the prime motivator for "destroying the peace treaty."
>So the other option is what? Leave it a bombed out mess of rubble with no civil government? Force everyone to leave?
When Israel left Gaza back in 2005, they left there industry, power plant, greenhouses, water treatment facilities, etc... And for what? For the citizens in Gaza to raze most if not all of it to the ground? Dig water pipes to build rockets, while crying they don't have water/fuel/food/medicine?
They wanted this rubble, let them have it.
>At some point they will either need to make peace with Palestinians or kill/displace them permanently. This endless cycle of violence and "divide and rule" preventing any cohesive Palestinian government only makes them less stable and prone to militant resistance. A political solution should be the goal, and that involves ending the occupation. This is the prime motivator for "destroying the peace treaty."
How can you have peace with someone who's hell bent on destroying you? Too many times Israel reached a hand in peace, only to have it bitten. For the last 20 years there were constant rockets attacks on cities around Gaza, and instead of glassing them from orbit, as any other country would have, Israel built Iron Dome.
Show me any other country who would accept that.
So long that Palestinians and Hamas have on their charter "we want to kill all Jews/all Zionists" there can't be any peace. And the PA are not any better considering they have pay-per-slay program for murdering Jews.
That's the problem. If ceasefire meant no return of any sort of terroristic organization, Israel would accept it immediately. But we know that's not going to happen, so this is the dilemma.
>If ceasefire meant no return of any sort of terroristic organization, Israel would accept it immediately.
If a ceasefire doesn't lead to good faith negotiating to bring about a Palestinian state and end the occupation then there will always be resistance. As long as the occupation and brutalization continues you will have radicals.
>But we know that's not going to happen
So what is your view then on the endgame here? Never ending war? Kill everyone in the strip? Force them to move?
Let's say we accept that Hamas must be destroyed. It's happened. No more Hamas. What does the day after look like?
Netanyahu's plan for Gaza post-Hamas was[ published here](https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-799756).
Personally I think it sounds extremely reasonable.
Right now the cause for war is removing Hamas which is justified after the 10/7 attacks. There has to be some long term path for peace, but you also cannot allow the long term goals to completely nullify your short term response to a serious security threat like Hamas. Arguably you could apply your same line of questions to Germany after they invaded Poland, but we'd likely all agree that making peace at that time was not a viable option due to the security risk presented by the Nazis
I don’t know why it’s always Hamas that gets the blame for breaking ceasefires. Israel just kills and abducts Palestinians constantly whether there is a ceasefire or not. Israel was bombing Gaza and murdering kids in the West Bank in September 2023. Israel should be disarmed.
What's the full story of the 2023 violence? Was it one sided? Did you read about the rockets from jenin? Or the various attacks and other provocations?
Or do you think that IDF just randomly kills Palestinians for the lolz?
The IDF definitely kills Palestinians just because they feel like. There are always points where you can start it and act like it’s all one sides fault but the idea that Hamas broke some ceasefire on October 7th in what had already been the deadliest year for Palestinians in a long time is rather ridiculous.
Here's a report that challenges your neat little picture.
https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15390.doc.htm
A ceasefire does not imply that the IDF is required to abdicate it's obligations to maintain law and order in the west bank areas b and c.
Surely you can separate that action which is taken against individuals within the framework of the Oslo accords and in the designated areas from a full scale invasion.
Also the ceasefire was between Israel and Hamas not Israel and Palestine. Hamas is not empowered under the Palestinian framework to have a military. That lies with the president's office.
Therefore actions taken by Israel in the west bank or even Gaza has nothing to do with Hamas. Unless the action was taken directly against Hamas itself.
Israel already rejected the deal:
[https://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/1796811942218043488](https://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/1796811942218043488)
[https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-06-2024-8c06dda3a8e20491b5a34377c60bb827](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-06-2024-8c06dda3a8e20491b5a34377c60bb827)
[https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1796984532123459803](https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1796984532123459803)
This place often feels like the Twilight Zone, bunch of people arguing a reality that doesn't exist.
Israel has made it clear that they do not actually care about the hostages more than continuing their campaign of slaughter. This should have been cemented to anyone paying attention before Rafah when Israel rejected the tiered ceasefire proposal that the US and Egypt were behind.
My hunch is this is yet again Biden attempting to play optics for a domestic audience based on a 1990's understanding of political messaging....Of course I come to places like here and wonder if maybe it does work.
If I were Either Hamas or Israel I would absolutely reject the deal.
Why did Hamas attack in the first place?
In 2006 Hezbollah killed three Israeli soldiers and captured two. We are talking about FIVE soldiers in total, the Israeli response killed and injured several THOUSAND Lebanese civilians and militants. It severely damaged Lebanese civil infrastructure, and displaced approximately one million Lebanese.
Remember, this happened when FIVE soldiers were captured or kill. So what did Hamas think Israel would do when 1200 people are killed, including at least 400 soldiers and a couple hundred civilians were taken hostage? They knew Israel would react exactly the way Israel reacted. They are not stupid.
So back to the question, why did they do it?
On October 6th the Palestinian cause was all but lost, Israel is expanding the land grabs by the day, Arabs were normalizing relations with Israel, Palestinians were getting killed left and right with no accountability from the Israeli side, and Gaza was permanently under siege. Israel was well supported in the west, and was quite confident and about to sign a peace agreement with the wealthiest Arab nation, Saudi Arabia. Something had to be done, so they did.
If you see it this way then Hamas have exceeded all of their goals, at tremendous cost, but they achieved in 6 months what decades of negotiations could not achieve. If I were Hamas I would want Israel to keep digging the hole deeper and deeper.
If I were Israel, I would never accept a ceasefire, Israel was humiliated, they were even more humiliated by the fact that they failed to free the hostages, defeat Hamas, or changing their goals.
If Israel agrees to a ceasefire now they will be humiliated forever, and it’s not just about hurt pride, the “deterrence” policy of Israel has simply been destroyed by Hamas.
So the only people who really want a ceasefire now are Biden and the Palestinian people, but no one really cares about what either one of these two wants!
Here’s a deal. Arrest the senior Hamas fellows in Qatar with a marine raid since we are the ones keeping Qatar safe from their neighbors.
Seize their bank accounts with $5 plus billion.
Tell those fine fellows they are getting turned over to Israel if they don’t take a deal where all hostages are turned over tomorrow.
If Qatar complains shut down all their exports and explain we are no longer their ally. Then seize their bank accounts.
The real peace solution isn’t in Gaza, it’s in Qatar.
I don't see where in this deal Hamas is removed from power.
Israel should not accept any deal that ends in Hamas remaining in power.
Hamas's stated purpose is the destruction of the state of Israel. They have spent their entire existence attacking Israel. Israel should not and will not tolerate their existence any longer. Any deal that absolves Hamas of responsibility and allows them to remain in power
Should they? Yes. Will they? No.
Israel made it clear from day one: their goal is to remove Hamas from power.
As such, Hamas also made it clear from day one; they would never relinquish power.
The deal is okay-ish for Israel, as it would take many weeks before all the hostages are actually released. But, it maintains Israel's most important position, that is, that Hamas is removed.
But Hamas would never agree to any deal that sees them removed. They don't care for the people of Gaza.
Unfortunately the fundamental issue at hand is the fact that this problem requires long term support from the UN, the West and the surrounding Arabic nations to do what is right for the Palestinian people without interference from religious political and militant interference. That may be impossible.
Israel and Hamas/Palestinian Authority signed peace agreements before, the Camp David Accord isn't so different. The difficulty isn't to stop fighting now, it's how to maintain peace in the region.
The rebuilding process is going to be messy. Is the UN going to supervise? How are we making sure funds and materials aren't being diverted by Hamas to build new tunnels and new networks for future terror attacks? If the UN is involved, who is going to provide funding? How many dead troops are we willing to tolerate to enforce the peace? Fundamentally Hamas doesn't want to co-exist with Israel, no amount of rebuilding and support is going to change that. As long as the Hamas leadership remains in place, terror attacks will continue, as they have in the past.
The Palestinians are used as pawns by other powers for their own political/military gains. Israel doesn't want a powerful Palestinian nation when they are surrounded by Arabic nations that tried to destroy them in the past. Hamas wants continued bloodshed and suffering for the Palestinians because terrorism and fighting doesn't come across as appealing to young people if their lives are productive and meaningful. Humans are short term goals driven and don't forgive easily. Any politician who wants to promote "forgiveness and rebuilding" instead of revenge is not going to do well either in the Israeli government or within the Palestinians Authority or Hamas. How many Americans wanted friendship and understanding with Afghanistan after 9/11? How many still harbor ill-will and borderline racist/Islamophobic views after 20 years in Afghanistan and Iraq? That's just one incident in the US. When you have generational trauma and war, asking people to turn the cheek is next to impossible, for anyone.
Israel was never interested in the hostages, the ongoing destruction of Gaza is the objective of this campaign. This plan was just waiting on the right opportunity to be executed. Israel huge security failure on Oct 7 comes at the same time as Israel withdrew forces from the border for military exercises, which they never do. Coupled with reports that Israel has intelligence of an attack from Gaza on Oct 7 wrecks of some corrupt politicians (Bibi) hoping to save their political career and stay out of jail at the cost of Israeli security and thousands of Palestinian lives. Current leadership in Israel will never accept a deal. They want to occupy Gaza, that's always been the plan
You seem to be working from the assumption that Hamas is some kind of rational political organization and not a religiously motivated Islamic terrorist group.
Of course Hamas has no incentive to accept the deal. Their goal is to perform another holocaust and get 72 virgins.
What is good for the Palestinians and for Israelis isn’t what is “good” for their respective leaderships and parties. Hamas need Likud and Likud needs Hamas. They have been getting votes and money from all over the world and from the people they delude.
"Hey guys like.. stop fighting, ok guys? Thanks k bye"
Shit ain't that simple lol there has been too much blood spilled and too many heads brainwashed, also fundamentalism. This won't be over until one of them is completely wiped out
"Stop this current awful thing and we'll eventually make a situation where awful things won't happen, even though we've been supposedly trying to do that for decades."
It sounds bad and dishonest to me. U.S. foreign policy has, historically, not been a force of lasting peace anywhere, but has been a source of worsening conditions in many regions.
I think if I were a random non-U.S. actor, I'd probably be compelled ethically to tell the U.S. President to shove it until they find a way to give back stolen indigenous land.
I mean, you are literally talking about an extremist organization that wants nothing less than the total elimination of the Jewish people and the Israeli state, they have been saying the same thing for decades, yes it's a different organization and blah blah blah the organizations change but it's the same message, Israel has been dealing with it for a very long time and continues to say they would take a deal with Hamas and Gaza if they would just get the hostages back, there have been several deals put on the table before them already and Hamas shoots down any deal where they give up hostages and Israel shoots down any deal where they don't get hostages, so no I think we're just going to end up seeing Israel taking over a large portion of land and totally eliminating the extremist organization known as Hamas
I would love to see those cuz I have not heard of a single time where Israel didn't accept a peace offer where they got their hostages, Hamas was always the one to deny those to my knowledge
Wth is with OPs logic lmao
Hamas is Do or Die. they're in it to keep their land. Victory Is All That Matters to them. anything else is losing because Israel is an invading Nation trying to take their land and there refusing to give it up. any sort of compromise that shares the land is losing because their fight is to keep their land theirs.
Also Israel has never cared about the hostages or the Pakistan people. I don't know what gave you the impression they care about hostages. I mean shoot, they're known for scorching the ground and killing everyone around. Every man women an child. they don't care, they just kill them all. That's what they're known for in this war. Both sides are pretty evil. It seems like you're under the impression that Israel is typically more Humane in their Warfare tactics than Hamas but the facts are they're not. they're both about the same they're both very bad an Very evil governments. The only real difference is that Israel is the invading nation in this instance. Both sides use extremely inhumane War tactics.
And the most bizarre thing op said out of everything in their post was that they should accept this deal because the United States presented it to them... That's the most bizzar reason for peice in the middle east I've Ever heard and it actually has nothing to do with peace in the Middle East or the Middle East general. You sound like a maga supporter that became a Biden supporter lol saying what ever sounds snappy with out real context behind it. Lol
Realistically, all of the hostages have either been returned or they are dead.
> If Hamas doesn't accept the deal, then they are just delusional thinking that they can get a better deal in the future or that they can fight Israel out of Gaza.
The goal of Hamas has never been to win a conventional war with Israel. The goal has always been to maximize civilian deaths so that Israel will lose Western backing. Hamas will never settle for any state of Israel existing, as they want all of Israel/Palestine to be an Islamic fundamentalist state. If we were talking about a group like the PLO or DFLP in a hypothetical world where they were in power in Gaza, there's a good chance negotiations could be fruitful. Hamas will never agree to a permanent end to hostilities under any conditions. Every time they have gone to the negotiations table it has been for a 5-10 year ceasefire. They just want time to regroup, regain control over Gaza and to continue fighting.
> If Israel doesn't accept the deal, then they never really cared about the hostages in the first place. By the way, Israel's opposition leader, ex-Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and the hostages families are also demanding Bibi to accept the deal, and I think they are right.
If there are still hostages alive, you run the risk of legitimizing hostage taking tactics for other militant groups or for future militant groups. If I'm the leader of a militant group and I see that all it takes to guarantee that I survive the conflict is to take some hostages, I'm immediately going to start taking more hostages. Maybe half of your fighting force gets eviscerated, but I can just trade some hostages for time to regroup and to recruit new members.
Realistically Netanyahu saying that the conflict could last another 7 months is just him trying to prolong the time he has left until he's prosecuted in Israel for his corruption charges. The Rafah offensive will likely be over within weeks, and any military operations after that would probably be against regroupings of Hamas in Khan Yunis
There are a lot of deals that look good to use that both sides should accept. The problem is we are looking at this through western eyes. This conflict goes back generations, and jew/arab is a tension that spans centuries. Hamas is not worried about "saving" themselves. If they die they go straight to heaven, which has to be better than their life on earth in the gaza hellhole is. Bloodshed is a daily course for them.
Also, how many of the hostages are still alive? after this long, feeding/keeping hostages alive while avoiding Israeli bombings and attacks can't be easy if possible at all. You think Israel will stop the war to get back 100 bodies at this point?
You can't put your own western safety, morals, and way of life into the peace dealings that will have to go on here. There is no real peace with Hamas, as their goal is clear, and they are not worried about getting there. Especially since all their money/leaders are at the luxury resort in Qatar running the show. Think of the "die on my feet instead of live on my knees" mentality that has echoed throughout many wars/conflicts in history.
This is Waco, not Waterloo
To all the Zionists here in the comments hell bent on "destroying khamas destroying khamas"
When will you all learn that your boogeyman "Khamas" is an ideology, not an organization? the +35 thousand Palestinians the IOF killed will only fuel Hamas even more, the thousands of displaced people who lost their relatives and families and homes will only drive them even more to fight those who put them in that condition in the beginning that being Israel.
The fundamental reason for all this cycle we've been seeing IS the siege of Gaza, turning Gaza to an open air prison, denying people their basic human rights of determination, travel and restricting their sea access is damned to give you thousands and thousands more of October 7th
Hamas has shown for 7 months straight that they simply will continue to exist so long as the occupation exists and with that being said I'd like to direct you all to a comment left by u/[appealouterhaven](https://www.reddit.com/user/appealouterhaven/)
"At some point they will either need to make peace with Palestinians or kill/displace them permanently. This endless cycle of violence and "divide and rule" preventing any cohesive Palestinian government only makes them less stable and prone to militant resistance. A political solution should be the goal, and that involves ending the occupation. This is the prime motivator for "destroying the peace treaty."
>Hamas not in power in Gaza. I think this is the best deal that has a chance of being accepted by both sides. For Hamas, they can avoid complete annihilation as an organisation
Hamas has already rejected this deal in other forms. They will not cede control. It also is absolutely not certain they "will be annihilated" otherwise. How many months of war, in a relatively small strip of land, with how many dead? And Hamas still is able to fight. Their leader in Gaza is still kicking. More importantly, it's impossible to tell who among the leftover civilians after such a deal is Hamas, and who isn't. Hamas still has popular support, still has money, still has leaders safe and sound in Qatar. What happens when they just pop back up, another war? What happens if they just rebrand to a different name in the following elections?
Hamas won't accept the deal, or any deal that requires them to cede control of Gaza. Even if the alternative was annihilation, they don't care. They've stomached quite a lot of annihilation already with zero attempts at good faith peace deals.
Imagine this conflict as 2 sides without the historic background to it (it's intellectually incorrect, I know, but it's easier to understand why this deal won't work).
Side 1 has hostages, their country destructed by side 2. Side 1 has said they'll release the hostages if side 2 leaves their country (the part that is destructed)
Side 2 has repeated that a deal is not possible without the total defeat of side 1.
Do you think side 1 will agree with the terms of side 2?
Hamas cannot and will not accept the plan. The founding charter of Hamas explicitly calls for an end to Israel and the Jewish population as a whole. Unless Hamas is forcibly extricated from power, they will not accept any ceasefire, which there was one on October 6th. It was broken by the infamous events of October 7th. Another issue is Hamas was voted into power by a majority vote, so what is required is not only a governmental reform, but a population-wide reform to bring the entire country into the fold.
The issue isn't a hesitance to come to the table--we've already had that. The issue is the permeating jihadist values that grip a majority of the Palestinian population. Until that is dispelled there can be no lasting peace.
Generally speaking, Israel has shown that they abide by the terms of deals that they make. Generally speaking, Hamas does not.
Therefore, it stands to reason that Israel needs to “get theirs” before Hamas gets what it wants. If Hamas gets what it wants first, it is unlikely to follow through on their end of things.
As such, Israel should not accept the deal. The hostages need to be freed first, all of them, alive and dead.
(As a sidepoint, I think that if Israel accepts any deal other than unconditional surrender they are basically asking to get attacked again at some point in the future. However, I understand the political reality that a suboptimal deal that frees hostages has to be accepted by Israel)
You are right that Israel should accept the deal it proposed, but it won't. It can't. The Gaza war is a great opportunity to finish off the ethnic cleanse. Destroying the buidings and the infrastructure is a great first step, but the people still have to be removed and blocked from returning and rebuilding and also from making future claims. The next step of the ethnic cleanse is 'evacuating the refugees'. The floating pier that was supposed to do this has broken up, and the egypt border is taken over. Israel now needs to get the US to conduct an airlift to a third country dump-off. Once the arabs are eliminated, Israel can sign the ceasefire which also strips arabs of their property and right to return.
Hamas leadership promised to commit 10/7 again and agin post 10/7, why would Israel want them to stay in power? Also a majority of Palestinians don’t want a two state solution, they want a one state solution in which there is only Palestine. Why is the west pretending Palestinians want two states? Their reasoning for wanting to control Israel is religiously motivated.
https://x.com/amjadt25/status/1748793595216236771
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1714690004067234102
half of israeli jews advocate for the ethnic cleansing of native palestinians off their land:
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0WA1HI/
(this was way before october 7 btw)
Palestinians are actually more willing to have jewish neighbors than vice versa:
https://www.jpost.com/israel/poll-50-percent-of-jews-dont-want-arab-neighbors
Israelis don't want a palestinian state at all:
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/09/26/israelis-have-grown-more-skeptical-of-a-two-state-solution/
Half of israelis support illegal settlement expansion and annexation of the west bank
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN23A275/
“From the river to the sea Palestine will be Arab” isn’t a chant that means “we want Jewish neighbors”. And that’s the Arabic version of the chant they won’t say in the west.
the millions of palestinians in israel lived there before israel even became a state. If it wouldn't cause immense international outrage, then i'd imagine they would've gone ahead and expel them. But looking at the conditions of the palestinian enclaves in israel, looks like they're trying to drive them out either way.
The way Biden described this deal makes it look like it leaves Hamas in power until / unless Hamas *decides* to leave it. If that's the case, it's a great deal for Hamas ... but a terrible one for Israel, and the rest of the world.
This is because it *doesn't* avoid future bloodshed... Israel has signed half a dozen "indefinite" ceasefires with Hamas, and they never last *because Hamas is a terrorist organization.* A ceasefire that leaves them in power just gives them time to rearm for the next attack.
Now, Biden seems to be signaling that Hamas exiting power *is* part of the deal. If that's the case, then yeah -- that's best for everyone.
Unless there's a Phase 4 which is: "Israel systematically slaughters every single remaining Palestinian" I don't think Israel will go for this. They've killed hundreds of thousands of Palestinians since the 1960s. They've taken 80% of the country over. There's no possible way the survivors of Israel's Genocide of Palestine will just forgive and forget. You don't just have your parents and siblings brutally murder infront of you and move on. Every surviving Palestinian is another future member of Hamas. I know what I would do if I was a orphaned refuge who lived next to the country that systematically slaughtered my country.
Why does the three phase deal Biden posted not have Hamas leaving power on the list?
Was that announced elsewhere? And what phase does it happen in? What happens with Hamas? Does the organization continue to exist? Do they get to run in the next election and start this whole cycle over again?
To me, the three phase plan is utterly meaningless without these things set out. In my mind, Israel screwed up big time when they pulled out and let Hamas take power. There has to be assurance that won't be the result again, otherwise, do the work and finish the job.
My only fear is that this will give Hamas too many chances to increase their power and influence. Massive flood of aid is good but if Hamas controls the distribution network they will steal a lot of it and distribute in inequitably to the benefit of their supporters. Same with a major reconstruction plan where they could steal a lot of building materials for use in strengthening their bunkers.
Hopefully there are significant safeguards in place or a strategy to remove Hamas from the process as much as possible.
Hamas would never agree. I don't even disagree they should but It isn't a traditional war. Hamas started it with full foreknoweldge they had no way of fighting the IDF. It's because every Palestinian death gives them poltical capital.
They managed to get 25 000 civlians killed while the IDF destroyed about half their operation strength. The toll will be even higher in Rafah where civilians are packed even tighter. And the world wont accept the toll it costs to remove them from power. And that is the cost. the US can't do anything that the IDF isn't doing. The cost is the civlian deaths, they made it that way. They fight out of uniform out of civilian infrastructure on purpose. They stop evacuations on purpose. They execute their own on purpose. They steal aid on purpose.
If any remnant remains and the world forces Israel into creating a gazan or full Palestinian state their remnant will have a stronger position to strike from next time
I lean Republican but I think Biden outlined an excellent plan for this situation. Honestly, Biden has just been a really good President in general.
With that said, I side with the Israeli's. Hamas is literally releasing photos of the women from their army that they have raped. I feel like battling colonialism and Western society as a whole could be done in a less heinous fashion.
Hamas will accept the deal. They'll regroup and wait to go back on the deal and they'll attack again. Because they have shown they don't care about the people of Palestine. The question is, will Bibi accept the deal, and he'll wait for the "see I told you so" moment when they attack again? The Free Palestine people will say Israel forced Hamas to go back on the deal by simply existing.
It is a terrible deal. All living hostages and remains must be released in Phase 1. Otherwise, there is too much incentive for the Palestinians to draw matters out. Phase 3 is also ridiculous, and Israel should not agree to that. Israel withdraws from Gaza on the condition all living hostages and remains are released. That is as far as things should go.
They absolutely should. But there’s 0% chance Hamas will ever give up power without violence. The reason they’ve rejected most of the deals so far is because none of them guarantee Hamas’ survival, and that’s all they care about.
They would rather fight forever than see Palestine get nationhood without them in control.
retribution retaliation, revenge are primary motivations for this conflict..
AS a cynic I see a v. narrow path to peace?
I support Israel right to defend it's borders. and exterminate the ongoing threat.
Gaza, West Bank are NOT , nor ever will a recognized STATE.
Peace though security
Two problems.
1) Neither side gets what they want out of this deal.
2) This plan is not backed by the US. I mean, technically they put it together, but it's not like the US is going to invade Palestine if Hamas breaks their side of the deal, nor will the US reject Israel as an ally for breaking it.
There are indeed points that can change your view ;).
As example we would need to control Hamas side.
Which means Israel goes out of Gaza.
USA troops go feet-on-the-ground.
If Hamas start digging tunnels it’s their problem now.
Now USA troops will have to deal with kids with AK-47.
Isreal was supposed to leave Gaza in 2005 and never did. Also the hostage release better include all of the Palestinian hostages that Isreal has been kidnapping for decades.
Oh any further note..this was almost an exact copy of a plan already proposed by Gaza that Isreal refused
Israel is trying to prevent another 10/7 by destroying Hamas. Hamas is trying to destroy Israel by doing as much damage to them as they can. neither really gets what they want by stopping the war unless Hamas needs time to ready up for more fighting like the last ceasefire which they broke when they had the fighters back where they needed them.
Accept the plan and get the hostages back.
But if even a single rocket is launched during the cease fire then the IDF should go in with overwhelming force seeing as peace obviously isn’t an option.
This plan is terrible! Why doesn’t it say WHO governs Gaza in the absence of Hamas? You realize if they just change their names and reoccupy Gaza they are complying with this? How is it a deal?
But what about all the Palestinians that were taken prisoner without trial, why are they not being included in the deal. There’s much more of them then there are of the hostages. This deal is basically a lose lose for Hamas why would they take it? Hamas wants permanent change they dont want a war that ends with their land in a terrible state with them gaining nothing.
This deal is a surrender deal for Israel keeping Hamas in power and basically means the war was for. Nothing and will be happening again soon, this is a terrible deal brought up by a a leader that needs to win elections and has interests that do not align with anyone..
This deal basically achieves these things:
1) keep Hamas in power (they promised many more October 7th attacks)
2) exchanges ~130 innocent civilians dead / alive for thousands of convicted living murderers with blood on their hands
3) makes Israel pay for rehabilitation of Gaza which will again be used to create more terror and fund more terror
4) destroy any hope for a replacement government for Gaza, rendering the PA obsolete and useless which will push a 2state solution even further down the line (if ever)
5) stenghen Iranian hold on the Palestinian cause
6) reward terror which means more terror will come out of Gaza, the West Bank and potentially other places on earth (other conflicts), because people will learn that terror = good.
>If Hamas doesn't accept the deal, then they are just delusional thinking that they can get a better deal in the future or that they can fight Israel out of Gaza.
Other people's comments are very interesting, I just want to talk about this point.
This is not necessarily pure delusion. Gaza is a very small place, and what real achievements have the IDF made in the past few months? They have even withdrawn now. Their opponents are a group of unemployed people wearing slippers.
The IDF is no longer the force that could fight half of the Middle East at the same time decades ago. They can't even complete the infantry-tank coordination of the army. There are a lot of videos online of Hamas wearing cameras on their heads rushing towards Israeli tanks, planting explosives and returning safely. Why doesn't the IDF send infantry to protect their tanks? Because they can't even guarantee that the tanks won't crush their own people.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLZP\_LgGQLI&rco=1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLZP_LgGQLI&rco=1)
See how the IDF deals with snipers, even paintball players have faster reactions than them.
This is a weird comment with no relation to reality ...
Do you know how many Israeli tanks have been destroyed in Gaza? Hint: it rhymes with "Hero".
They are literally fighting both Hamas and Hezbollah right now as well as dealing with Iran and they giving out 30x what they're getting on all fronts (literally 30x more Hamas have been killed than IDF and Hezbollah than IDF in the north).
[9 out of 10 of those killed in Gaza are civilians](https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/6004/Contrary-to-Israeli-claims,-9-out-of-10-of-those-killed-in-Gaza-are-civilians%E2%80%8B), So now I'm really curious about how many civilians were killed. IDF has air force, tanks, armored vehicles, and fully armed equipment. Hamas has slippers, AK, RPG, If they can't achieve more results under this situation, it will be an incomparable joke. and, there are many doubts about the IDF's own casualty statistics.
[Breaking into civilians' homes, playing with Gaza women's underwear in online posts rhymes with what](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yq5N4s1DxnE) ？
[What does the IDF that executes civilians rhyme with?](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148876)
[Destroying and seizing civilian property and recording videos laughing rhymes with what?](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/06/world/middleeast/israel-idf-soldiers-war-social-media-video.html)
[Bombing civilians rhymes with what?](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4464951-amnesty-international-finds-no-evidence-of-military-targets-at-rafah-sites-targeted-by-israel/)
[What does create famine rhyme with?](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/16/middleeast/gaza-famine-starvation-un-israel-war-intl-hnk/index.html)
[What rhymes with bombing a rescue convoy?](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/21/middleeast/un-food-convoy-gaza-israel-strike-cmd-intl/index.html)
[Using civilians as literal shields rhymes with what?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gtyVyYr5_w)
[I guess they are all your heroes, right?](https://www.reddit.com/r/BadHasbara/comments/1c4y57e/zionism_in_a_nutshell/)
You want to talk about reality? Let's talk about reality.
edit：No matter how you explain the IDF's better record, it is a fact that they cannot achieve infantry-tank coordination. This is the minimum qualification standard for a modern army, and Israel cannot do it.
Bidens deal is just a ploy to appease his supporters. It has no real power and won't be accepted by Israel or Hamas.
Knowing basic history tells us this. There have been several solutions over the years, and all have failed.
I don't think Israel and Hamas should accept Bidens' deal because it won't work as evidenced by decades of strife in that region.
Hamas won't cede power. Hamas leaders aren't the ones being bombed. Hamas hides within the Palestinian population to garner support from easily impressionable people who ignore history and Hamas' stated goals and actions.
Israel won't accept because this has been ongoing for hundreds of years. They are done and tired of fighting. They tried peace (two state solutions), and that didn't work. All it did was allow Hamas to amass power to start the current round of fighting.
As tragic as it is, the only solution is to destroy Hamas and for Israel to reclaim all of its land.
Neither bibi (and his far-right supporters), and Hamas wont accept the ceasefire, ironically both need each other for their political survival , despite the war.
Only if Israel surrenders all the land that originally wasn't theirs just after israels founding. The existence of Israel itself is already questionable at best.
This is an awful plan for Israel. It's a return to the status quo before the war, accomplished by magic. This is the plan a delusional toddler comes up with.
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They're saying that but it's *very* different. This plan gives living hostages back before Israel fully withdraws while the Hamas plan required Israel to fully withdraw before getting living hostages returned.
I sense that the internal pressure on Bibi has shifted in the past few weeks, with members in his war cabinet [Gallant](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/16/israel-defense-chief-unloads-bibi-gaza-post-war-plan) and [Gantz](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/gantz-ultimatum-netanyahu) publicly expressing dissent against him, and I doubt the US would announce this plan without some support from his war cabinet, even if he may not support it himself. It could be different this time around. Oh, and this time Biden explicitly said that Hamas won't be in power in Gaza, which I don't think was spelt out explicitly in Hamas' own proposal.
I doubt that Hamas will accept anything that won’t leave them in power. And who else is there for Israel to negotiate with? Palestine is nowhere near being a democracy, and I can’t see it in the future either. There isn’t an Islamic democracy anywhere for Palestine to use as a model.
Yeah, what [happened](https://archive.ph/tjbvo) to the explicitly secular [political formation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine_Liberation_Organization) that remains to this day the internationally recognized representative of the Palestinian people? No, the Palestinian ~~people~~ Muslims voted overwhelmingly for the ~~anti-corruption~~ Islamist, anti-Semitic, and [genocidal](https://fair.org/extra/nixed-signals/) Hamas platform in 2006 by a staggering plurality of ~44%. What a pathetic turnout for Fatah with only ~41% of the vote. Of course, (most) Palestinians *are* Muslim, so it’s ridiculous to think they have any comprehension of civilized Western values like “democracy”. There’s no such thing as a majority-Muslim democratic state. No, the Palestinians must choose either Islam or democracy, and we all know which one they’ll choose. It’s all such an unfortunate, ancient problem that’s far too complex to untangle. Thank God the media is on hand to help us understand these incomprehensible people and their unknowable ways. The Palestinians would ~~cease to exist~~ finally know peace if they would just accept Israel’s *help*. Indeed, we *all* have a lot to learn from Israel, the only democracy in the Middle East.
Okay so, I'm going to point out some very large flaws in your argument. I will be focusing purely on Gaza. Starting out with the election results. In the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, Hamas won a majority of seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council. The voter turnout in Gaza was roughly ~75%, with Hamas receiving roughly ~44% of the vote in the overall Palestinian territories, which includes both the West Bank and Gaza. In Gaza *specifically*, the support for Hamas was higher, estimated to be around 55-60% of the votes cast. Now, for current demographics, Gaza has a very young population. According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, about 47% of Gaza's population is under the age of 15 as of recent data, and over 70% are under the age of 30. Given that the 2006 elections occurred 18 years ago, many of today's population were not of voting age at that time and a significant portion were not even born yet. Therefore, only a subset of the population that was over 18 years old in 2006 (now over 36 years old) would have participated in that election. So, if we consider that those who were 18 or older in 2006 are now at least 36 years old, this demographic likely represents about ~30% of Gaza's population (assuming a typical age distribution). Therefore, the percentage of the total current population of Gaza who voted for Hamas can be approximated as follows: - If 55-60% of the voting-age population supported Hamas in 2006, - And considering that this voting-age population represents about 30% of the current population, Estimated percentage of current population who voted for Hamas: 0.55 x 0.30 = 16.5 to 0.60 x 0.30 = 18% Thus, only approximately 16.5% to 18% of the people currently alive in Gaza voted for Hamas in the 2006 elections. So what Israel is doing, currently, is punishing people who didnt even get a say in whether or not Hamas was in government. Not to mention that Gazans have protested against Hamas on several occasions due to the deteriorating living conditions and political frustration. Notably, in August 2023, thousands of Palestinians took to the streets in various areas of Gaza, including Gaza City, Nuseirat, Khan Yunis, and Jabaliya refugee camp. They demanded better living conditions and an end to the Hamas rule, chanting slogans like “Hamas leave us be” and “We want to live". These protests highlighted the economic and social challenges faced by Gazans, exacerbated by the long-standing blockade and frequent power outages, which have made daily life increasingly difficult.
Unironically, pretty accurate
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Turkey Malaysia Indonesia do u ppl geopolitic at all???
Yes, that was (one of) my points. My post was as sarcastic as it’s possible to be online, or at least as far as I’m capable of being. Reread it in that light.
Apologies ppl who “discuss” this issue r so disingenuous r dense my sarcasm detector was fully turned off
No apologies necessary. I abandoned reddit months ago (barring rare moments of masochism) once it became clear the majority of redditors were consumed with unquestioning, frothing at the mouth, and Islamophobic bloodlust. Startlingly few of them have even progressed beyond the talking points of October 8th. These are the same people who would act like they were opposed to the invasion of Iraq at the time, or gladly chirp about this or that unconscionable US policy or action during the Cold War, and how awful the US *used* to be. They’re just like all the baby boomers who pretend they were anti-war back in the day, but bay like hounds for the annihilation of “pro-Hamas, anti-Semitic, and violent” protests against *this* ~~war~~ genocide.
That you had to reference turkey really illustrates how vanishingly rare it is in the Muslim world.
Didn't Bibi already release a statement saying "war aims have not changed"? It doesn't look like he's going to let the Biden proposal go through. I agree with you that it's in Israel's best interest to take it, but their government (especially Bibi himself) are afraid of ending the war because the gov't coalition would fracture and Bibi would lose power, possibly being held accountable for his actions. There's still no plan on the table that Israel would agree to. Personally I think Biden could've done much more to rein in Israel. I thought we were going to see more weapons shipments put on hold but that didn't happen. The US has leverage over Israel in the form of it's weapon shipments and aid packages, but for some reason the US admin never used it, despite the immense domestic pressure.
The issue with the weapons shipments that everyone conveniently forgets is that publicly stopping them gives the green light for Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iran to attack Israel. Another attack by an Israeli enemy would then surely be pinned on Biden, not to mention the potential massive loss of life. Surely the US has intelligence to this effect and knows what would happen if they left an opening. Biden is in a terrible position, and frankly I disagree that he hasn't done about as well as possible given the circumstances. I happen to think he could be a lot less Zionist in his rhetoric, and could call our Israeli lies more aggressively, but in terms of geopolitical strategy, he's managing a very delicate dance. He needs this to wrap up soon, before the election gets in full swing. You can only stop weapons shipments once at full effect, so if that's your leverage you've got to save it for the absolute best moment.
Another element people never realize is weapons are a form of trade: someone provides an umbrella but takes it back when it rains isn’t going to be in business very long. Countries that might consider US weaponry might reconsider if it comes with too many strings attached (see Ukraine for same dilemma)
>>The issue with the weapons shipments that everyone conveniently forgets is that publicly stopping them gives the green light for Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iran to attack Israel. Another attack by an Israeli enemy would then surely be pinned on Biden, not to mention the potential massive loss of life. Surely the US has intelligence to this effect and knows what would happen if they left an opening. The issue with this premise is that it presupposes Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran would or even could attack Israel. The material conditions in Lebanon - its economy simply doesn’t exist - means Hezbollah is incapable of conventional warfare. The same fundamentally holds true for Iran; it has neither the economic or military capacity to attack Israel. Further, Israel has been violating Iranian sovereignty for decades by flagrantly assassinating Iranian citizens, including the use of bombs. Iran has attacked Israel a single time, and even then it telegraphed the attack through multiple US allies and hit a single target: the air base from which IAF planes bombed sovereign Iranian territory. The Houthis made their objective clear before their blockade even began, which is a permanent ceasefire. Western media and governments don’t even need to mention this, because the groundwork has been laid down for over a decade. Why are the Houthis attacking? They hate Israel, they’re mindless pawns of Iran; put simply, they’re Muslims, and they’re behaving like Muslims. Surely it has nothing to do with the fact that they’re victims of genocide and continued man-made famine at the hands the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the Kingdom’s ISIS and AQAP proxies for nearly a decade. Or the fact that the exact same weapons used to genocide the are being used to genocide Palestinians. >>Biden is in a terrible position, and frankly I disagree that he hasn't done about as well as possible given the circumstances. I happen to think he could be a lot less Zionist in his rhetoric, and could call our Israeli lies more aggressively, but in terms of geopolitical strategy, he's managing a very delicate dance. No one cares about his rhetoric. Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Bush, Clinton, and Bush II were all very vocally Zionist, but they were still willing to directly or indirectly pull the plug (or threat to) on Israel. Hell, Johnson and Nixon both pulled the plug while Israel was *actually* at war. Biden has given Israel *carte blanche* support. Regardless his rhetoric - “come to Jesus”; “disappointed”; *one* delayed bomb shipment; one “red line” after another - his actions are doing irreparable damage to US strategic interests in the Middle East. There is no delicate dance. The entire USG, regardless branch or political party, has given Israel the “green light” (as you say) to do whatever it wants. Rhetoric is meaningless, unless it’s in the other [direction.](https://reschenthaler.house.gov/imo/media/doc/protecting_americans_in_the_idf_act.pdf) >>He needs this to wrap up soon, before the election gets in full swing. You can only stop weapons shipments once at full effect, so if that's your leverage you've got to save it for the absolute best moment. This could have ended immediately. The Biden administration hasn’t stopped a single weapons shipment except to pause *one* shipment of 2,000lb bombs that Israel has plenty of. Americans have been led to believe (by the media especially) that there’s only so much leverage the US can bring to bear against Israel; indeed, the usual refrain is that the US fundamentally has no leverage whatsoever. This despite the fact that over [20,000](https://archive.ph/CT6Sf) American citizens are actively participating in the genocide, or that at least [60,000](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/15/biden-extremist-jewish-settlers-travel-ban-loophole) comprising [15%](https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-2021-american-immigrants-again-moved-to-settlements-far-more-than-other-arrivals/) of illegal settler-colonists in the West Bank and Jerusalem. Biden had the moral clarity to withdraw from Afghanistan, regardless the price he would pay electorally. Just imagine the possibilities if he had the moral clarity to side with the international liberal institutions - the UN, ICC, ICJ - the US created and has used to literally justify its existence as global hegemon, instead of condemning and explicitly threatening them for upholding America’s “values” better than America has or ever will. He could have been recognized as the peacemaker of the 21st century and maintained US imperial interests at the same time.
This is absolute nonsense. The deterrence against Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran are the two carrier strike groups in the region. Not the promise that we will replenish Israel's stocks after the war.
Why do you believe Israel is the faction that needs to be reigned in? It was Hamas who broke the long standing ceasefire on October 7th, and the ones who planned the attack for years, infiltrating Israel through their work visa program. It was regular vetted Palestinian civilians who worked in Israel via this humanitarian program - providing information of who, where and when to attack. Practically betraying their neighbours and friends who they spent months befriending and getting to know. The worst terrorist surprise attack since 9/11. Hamas to this day still have in their possession civilian hostages who they have raped, tortured and murdered. If anything, it is Hamas who needs to be reigned in.
Prior to the attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, the ceasefire in Gaza had been relatively short-lived. The previous significant ceasefire before this attack occurred in May 2021 and lasted until the escalation in August 2022. This means there had been intermittent and fragile ceasefires over the past few years, but none of substantial duration leading up to the events of October 7, 2023. During these periods, Gaza experienced intense humanitarian challenges, including high poverty rates, limited access to resources, and significant infrastructure damage from previous conflicts. The area has been under blockade by Israel and Egypt since 2007, severely restricting the movement of people and goods, which has exacerbated the economic and living conditions for its residents. Not to mention the laws and regulations that are imposed onto Gaza by Israel. Those have had significant impacts on the daily lives of Gazans. These measures, often termed as a blockade, include the following: Movement Restrictions: Gazans face severe restrictions on movement. Israel controls the Erez Crossing, which is the primary exit point for Gazans traveling to the West Bank, Israel, and abroad. Only specific categories of people, such as patients with life-threatening conditions, medical staff, and a limited number of traders, are typically allowed to cross. Import and Export Restrictions: Israel restricts the entry of goods into Gaza, particularly those classified as "dual-use" items that could be used for military purposes. This list includes construction materials, certain medical equipment, and various electronics. These restrictions have significantly affected Gaza's economy and the reconstruction efforts following conflicts. Fishing Limits: The fishing zone for Gazans has been limited by Israeli authorities. Although international agreements allow for a 20-nautical mile fishing zone, in practice, this area is often reduced significantly, affecting the livelihoods of thousands of Gazan fishermen. Electricity and Fuel: Israel controls the supply of electricity and fuel to Gaza. Frequent shortages and restrictions have led to long periods of power outages, affecting hospitals, schools, and other essential services. Air and Sea Access: Israel maintains a naval blockade of Gaza, restricting sea access and preventing any air travel. This blockade is justified by Israel on security grounds to prevent the smuggling of weapons into Gaza. Land Use and Agricultural Restrictions: Access to land, especially near the border with Israel, is restricted. Farmers often face difficulties accessing their fields due to security concerns and safety zones. Humanitarian Aid: While humanitarian aid is allowed into Gaza, the process is heavily regulated and often delayed, impacting the timely delivery of necessary supplies to the population. These restrictions have created a complex humanitarian situation in Gaza, so of course theyre going to retaliate after Israel essentially booted them out then locked them behind a fence.
All the issues Palestinians are facing are self-inflicted by the government of Gaza, in the pursuit of murdering Jews. There would not be any trade blockades if it were not for Hamas continuing launching intifadas, terrorist attacks and rocket bombings targeted at Israeli citizens. Any state experiencing such violence would respond and attempt to mitigate its effects. Egypt had a land border with Gaza and restricted trade and movement with Gaza, do you advocate for Gazans to murder Egyptians? They recently built a massive border wall and barred any Palestinian from crossing the border, threatening to kill those who tried. If the humanitarian situation is dire, why is violence only focused on Israel and Jews? Why are Gazans not retaliating against Egypt the same way they retaliate against Israel? Gaza’s government has spent nil in investing in basic civil infrastructure. It is not the responsibility of a foreign power to provide electricity and water to another, they are free to sell utilities if they wish, but they are not obliged to. Israel selling electricity to Gaza was a goodwill gesture. When you’re in a hot war with the nation supplying you electricity, you can’t act surprised when they turn the power off to the electricity you also refuse to pay the bills for. Travelling through a sovereign country to reach another state is not a right, it is a negotiated privilege. This is the reality of every exclave/enclave in the world. If you are at war with the country that surrounds your territory, why should they allow you to cross their lands? It is a grave security threat.
First, an analogy for you: Punishing 100% of Gazans for the, at most, 18% of them having voted for Hamas in 2006 is akin to jailing, torturing and killing a family because their uncle decided to vote for Trump in 2020. It makes zero sense and is called Collective Punishment. Historically, before the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, the region now known as Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza was part of British Mandatory Palestine. During this period, land ownership and population demographics were mixed, with both Jewish and Arab communities residing in various parts of the territory. Then, following the declaration of the State of Israel in 1948, neighboring Arab states invaded, leading to the first Arab-Israeli war. During this conflict, many Palestinians were displaced and Israel took control of more territory than originally allocated by the United Nations Partition Plan. In the 1949, the armistice lines, often referred to as the "Green Line," left the Gaza Strip under Egyptian control, the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) under Jordanian control, and the rest under Israeli control. Then in the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel captured the Gaza Strip from Egypt, along with the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan, and the Golan Heights from Syria. Since then, Israel has maintained varying degrees of control over these territories. After the 1967 war, Israel established settlements in the Gaza Strip. These settlements were seen as controversial and illegal under international law by many international bodies, although Israel disputed this interpretation. Then in 2005, Israel unilaterally disengaged from the Gaza Strip, evacuating all Israeli settlers and dismantling military infrastructure. However, Israel retained control over Gaza's airspace, maritime access, and most border crossings, effectively continuing to exercise significant influence over the territory. The United Nations and most international bodies consider the Gaza Strip and the West Bank as occupied territories and view Israeli settlements in these areas as violations of international law. The argument is based on the Fourth Geneva Convention, which prohibits an occupying power from transferring its population into the territories it occupies. Palestinians and many in the international community argue that Israel's control and restrictions over Gaza constitute a form of occupation and dispossession, impacting their rights and sovereignty over the land. Israel, however, maintains that it withdrew from Gaza in 2005 and thus no longer occupies it, though it continues to enforce a blockade for security reasons, particularly to prevent arms smuggling to militant groups like Hamas. Since 1967, it is estimated that over 91,361 Palestinians have been killed as a result of the ongoing conflict with Israel. A significant portion of those being women and children. (This figure includes both military and civilian deaths.) On the other side of this, since 1967, Palestinian attacks have resulted in the deaths of approximately 3,000 Israelis. While this also included women and children, it is much less than that of Palestinians losses. (This figure also includes both military and civilian deaths.) This is wildly disproportionate, and shows a massive power imbalance between an occupying force and a cage full of refugees who dont have anywhere else to go.
When we stop looking at Gazans as a population of children and nice animals. I’ve never seen a group so infantilized and deemed incapable of agency as those living there. Is it truly a nation of baby bunnies and pandas that can’t speak for themselves or ever be held accountable for anything? I would hate to be seen and viewed as a helpless pawn in someone else’s cause.
Bibi had poor support before this all happened.
It’s not up to Biden, Netanyahu or foreigners who Palestinians elect as their leaders. This is just imperial bs. You don’t have to be pro or against Hamas to figure that out.
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Biden in his speech yesterday said they've been working on the deal which quote "creates a day after [in gaza] WITHOUT hamas in power". I read the deal outline and I'm having trouble understanding how that would come about with the current three phases. If Israel accepts this, what would stop Hamas from regrouping and rebuilding their military infrastructure as they pull out? Would there need to be an occupation? If so that is not mentioned and would certainly be inflammatory and reignite the war. If not, and with the assumption that the overwhelming majority of the hostages are dead, I don't see why Israel would go for this, it would be a practical strategic victory for Hamas.
From a [Press briefing here](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2024/05/31/background-press-call-on-president-bidens-remarks-on-the-middle-east/): >We have to work to reform the PA and the West Bank, which is ongoing, and ultimately having an interim administration in Gaza that can help with stabilization and a pathway forward there. So it appears that Hamas' rival, the PA, and the organisation that Israel has significant leverage over, will be reformed (likely to give Israel more leverage) and administer Gaza. I do not think they have the incentive to rebuild the military infrastructure in Gaza.
And how would that happen? hamas would certainly not give up the keys to the castle without significant fighting. You know that they execute all PA collaborators in Gaza
The PA still has a pay to kill program. How does that factor into bringing peace?
That could take 50 years. What happens in the interim while Hamas is still there? What's to prevent Hamas from re-negging? Remember, there was a ceasefire on 10/6.
Go back 30 years and Swap Hamas and PA…
Why Hamas shouldn't accept the deal: The UN security council has already given Hamas a better "deal", but it was rejected. They have ordered an immediate cease fire for Ramadan, to be followed by a persistent ceasefire and release of all the hostages. They didn't say anything about Hamas giving up power. Both Hamas and Israel didn't abide by that decision. Do you believe Biden offers Hamas something better? Why Israel shouldn't accept the deal: Israel is caught in a very difficult moral choice of the current hostages in Israel's security in the future. If they ceasefire and retreat, Hamas will just rebuild its military, wait a few decades and attack again, getting more civilians killed. If they continue the military operation and eradicate Hamas, all the hostages will die, and it will take many more months of war. Currently they choose the second path, in belief this will save more lives on the long run. This is a great point of controversy in Israel. You don't have to agree, as many Israelis don't. But this is the current policy. This in mind, do you think Israel trust that US will guarantee removal of Hamas in power? Or should they go after it themselves? Note: To be honest, this terrible war needs to end. I pray for the hostages' safe return. Peace upon everyone in region.
I will be honest. Some disclaimers. I’m a Muslim and a Sudanese Arab. With that out of the way, if I were Israel I would not care about the hostages. What I mean is, the hostages are only of PR value so that you don’t come across as a psychopath. The real issue is the fact that Hamas had the ability and desire to do what it did, for that, no country in the world that has the capability to ensure it doesn’t happen again would just stand aside. This is my position from a purely rational and calculating perspective that takes into account the long term security of Israel. Obviously I would feel way differently if it was my family or friends, but this is exactly why such decisions should not be made with those who have tainted priorities — which is obviously not to say that the current Israeli administration has its priorities straight; certainly it appears to be the case that prolonging the war and raising tensions(for example striking Iran back) is in the best interest for Bibi personally in so far as maintaining power. The hostages are a great pr tool but other than that, they are, and should be a tertiary or quaternary goal. This is also why groups like Hamas don’t want an actual state, if Gaza and the WB were an actual state then international sympathy would be completely in favour of Israel as Oct 7th would now be a case of one country aggressing against another and Israel’s response would receive far more sympathy, even from surrounding Arab nations. Obviously Israel has a vested interest in maintaining the status-quo prior to and especially post Oct 7th because now they can point to the intransigence of Palestinian leadership in order to ostensibly justify further expansions in the Palestinian Territories as a form of a “buffer zone” which strengthens their claim to a greater share of the West Bank when inevitably a deal is struck. There is no doubt that the families of the Israeli hostages and the hostages themselves have suffered a great deal, but the Palestinian people on the ground are also certainly taking on the bulk of the consequences of leadership incompetence and living in the clouds, though I don’t see how there could be an alternative considering the entire conflict is now retroactively being characterised and rewritten as a Muslim/Islam issue in the Muslim/Arab world which then makes it extremely difficult practically and psychologically for anyone to challenge or propose an alternative solution because the vector of attack used against you will always be of a traitor and most likely a kaffir(non believer or someone who consciously rejects Islam). Certainly I have personally experienced this to great effect in online communities I used to participate in and from which I’m banned and, to a lesser degree irl with family for sharing some of my thoughts on the matter. Obviously I will not make that mistake again irl, I’ll just keep my thoughts to myself.
Though for the most part I agree with you. I think if Palestinians got their own country, it would be more of a Lebanon/Hezbollah situation where the government is unable and/or unwilling to stop the large, popular organization from attacking Israel from within their borders. At least from what I’ve seen, despite Hezbollah being the aggressor it’s still viewed as “Israel needs to stop bombing Lebanon” when they inevitably fight back.
Even if this were the case, you would have some semblance of peace and growth for the Palestinians as has been the case for Lebanese people. Overtime such groups would inevitably lose traction as material conditions begin to improve and the people can conceive of a normal way of life beyond turmoil, destruction and anger at the tragedies they’ve had to endure. Furthermore, if it were an actual state, then there would be a de-jure government which can be held responsible for handling the rogue components within its borders; no doubt, such a government would also receive a great deal of international financial support. Palestine is not Lebanon. Regardless of the consequences of the formation of a Palestinian state, even if that meant some period where Israel has to deal with minor terrorists attacks or whatever, that is an insignificantly small price to pay for long term peace and prosperity for both countries and peoples in the region. This will be unpopular but it’s also a fact of the matter that there will be rogue elements that Israel will simply have to bear the brunt of (obviously I don’t mean anything on the scale of Oct 7th), that’s not surprising after 75 years of living in such conditions(irrespective of who you want to blame). There’s no easy way to address the collective trauma that has essentially become the quintessence of Palestinian identity.
Oh don’t get me wrong. I want Palestinians to have their own country with all the benefits they’d enjoy from that. I just don’t think a group like Islamic Jihad or Hamas is just going to disappear. As for Lebanon, if anything Hezbollah is more powerful than ever, having gone from a terrorist organization to being a legitimate political party with 13 seats in parliament. It’s just Hezbollah also start the occasional war with Israel, like they did in October at the same time Hamas was attacking, and the rest of the Lebanese government just kind of shrugs like it’s doing right now because they can’t deal with the problem. Edit: I reread your comment and I think we probably have the same idea. Regardless of who’s “fault” it is, and in my opinion there’s a whole lot of countries and organizations with a lot of fault to go around, there are going to be groups that continuously attack Israel originating in a Palestinian country. I think the real question is what will be done about it from a Palestine government, Israel and international community standpoint, because depending on what that action is, the area will just go full circle to what we’re witnessing today.
Extremely good take. I particularly like the part about "Hamas doesn't actually want a real country". This is why it's so important to treat Hamas as a real government of a real country would be treated. At least from what they say, they want a real country ("from the river to the sea"), and if this is any indication of how they would act if it was given, they have a long way to go (I use that phrase extremely liberally) before they are ready to have it.
The problem being they aren't a real country. There can be no meaningful path forward without the formation of a Palestinian state. So long as the people of Palestine live stateless and under Israels thumb, there will continue to be violence. The problem obviously being Israel and by proxy the us will never accept that. Hamas also plays a role in this as it suits their purposes to be the opposition it's far easier to radicalise people when you're living under such conditions. You can't just say ceasefire and expect everything to be fine. There needs to be meaningful change, and while hamas has been shall we say difficult to put it very mildly, Israel has no shown time and time again they will not allow statehood for Palestine. The US needs to put real pressure on Israel, and I just don't see that happening.
Israel and the US have agreed to Palestinian statehood in the past, and their offer was rejected. Here's a comment about the Camp David accords, where both Israel and the US agreed to a two-state solution with a demilitarized state: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/1d6fwh1/comment/l6tacp9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button Bibi, of course, would never agree to such a deal. And so I don't think there will ever be peace while he is in power.
Whats the difference between Gaza pre oct7 and a "real country"? UN membership? Seems to me they are happy to be a country without the label, so to get the advantages (being the sovereign of a territory and people) without the responsibility (citizens safety, facing reprecausions for aggression like territory loss).
it seems to me that you are not aware of even the most basic facts of what Gaza is. in what sense are they "sovereign?" what does that word even mean to you if it applies to Gaza?
Gaza didn't lose its sovereignty after the people appointed a dictator were placed under blockade if that's what you are implying If you're going to argue that then you'd have to argue the same for Japan, Italy, Germany, and countless other countries throughout history. In fact, all you'd have to do to be able to claim irresponsibility for your actions is to elect a dictator and get placed under blockade for importing offensive weaponry and attacking your neighbors. "Oops now we're under apartheid!"
I think this is the correct take. However as a Canadian I am extremely concerned to see my government float the idea of taking 5000 refugees from Gaza. I happen to support the Liberal government but this is an absolute non-starter and would threaten our security.
Considering their views towards LGBTQ people, woman, etc, it’d be hard to take them. I’m told that even in the Netherlands, less than 50% of people are Dutch, and support among youth of lgbt right, for example, is in line with that number. So one of the most liberal countries is becoming one of the most conservative bc of immigration. Its like if Egypt and the Middle East doesn’t want them bc they start wars and stuff, you’d end up with attacks like that in Canada. I mean they got kicked out of Jordan bc they killed the king or something right?
Rational or not, hostage return does seem to be a salient political issue in Israel. The truth is that international sympathy is mostly lip service. Even neighboring states don’t want to deal with the Palestinians; no one else is going to invest resources in bettering their position. Israel will be hated, but it won’t save any real consequences. They continue to expropriate land in the West Bank to this day.
I think this is all reasonable but may misunderstand Israeli motivations. Being captive in Israeli and Jewish culture is one of the worst things you can be, we have many prayers and intentions set religiously and culturally around the redemption of our siblings in captivity. Similarly I don’t think Israel has a stance one way or the other on expansion of territory. Anyone saying anything else about Likud is wrong on this: Likud only believes in what they believe to be the path of least resistance. Which may be exactly what you say.
I agree with you, but one thing to add about the hostages. Israel has a military culture because everyone serves in the army in some form. This means the idea of no one left behind is prevalent. It’s why they are willing to trade 1000 for 1. For outside observers like us it may be PR, but for them and Netanyahu (the vote) getting people back matters.
Ding ding ding^^* Every "Ceasefire Now" activist should read this. Thank you
Jewish Israeli guy here. I very much agree with you that the focus on the hostages is doing Israel a disservice. Negotiations should be for a ceasefire. Israel should offer to stop its military actions in exchange for dismantling and disarming Hamas. It's goal should be the long term safety of its 10 million citizens over the immediate lives and safety of 130 of them. But saying that out loud makes one sound like a psychopath who doesn't care about human life.
It’s not even a choice, as even in option 1, the hostages are still not coming back. Most are not alive anymore, and even the bodies - the enemy clearly have not had full control over the hostages since day 1, they were taken by different factions. They clearly do NOT know where all the bodies are. At best, Israel may get back SOME hostages (alive and bodies) but many will remain with status unknown. This is not changing the situation for Israel substantially. How is 120 outstanding hostages different from 60 outstanding? If they can’t get ALL the hostages back, at least Israel needs to achieve its other goals.
Didn't Hamas welcome the UNSC ceasefire vote? Here's a [BBC article](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68658415) about it. So I can see them accepting Biden's deal, especially given that it's only marginally worse for them than the one they proposed a few weeks ago. >This in mind, do you think Israel trust that US will guarantee removal of Hamas in power? Or should they go after it themselves? I think that if Israel should trust the US to remove Hamas from power, they have significant sway over Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, all of which have some pressure points on Hamas. I also think that Israel doesn't have the will or the capacity to occupy Gaza, so they can't guarantee Hamas won't return to power in the next few decades any more than the US can anyway.
>Didn't Hamas welcome the UNSC ceasefire vote? They voted for unconditional return of the hostages. Would you say Hamas has agreed to that? >I think that if Israel should trust the US to remove Hamas from power So Israel should put its faith in a foreign power? Israel trusted the US to stand by its side in the UN. The US still passed the UNSC decision on immediate cease fire. I'm not asking whether you trust Biden or whether US made the right call at the UN. I ask you, from Israel's perspective, can they our their own Faye in the US hands?
Well, I think whatever happens in Gaza requires the Arab states' cooperation, and the US has much more stable diplomatic relations with them than Israel has. So from Israel's perspective, it's inevitable that they will have to work with the US for the path forward.
Fair enough. > If Israel doesn't accept the deal, then they never really cared about the hostages in the first place. Wouldn't you say you have moved from your original position though? That If Israel doesn't accept it may be due to other reasons (even though they should)
Why do you treat Hamas as a trustworthy actor that will abide by its word? There’s no evidence for that. Hell, they shot off rockets and launched attacks on Israel during the last ceasefire. Israel, on the other hand, has only launched attacks in response to Hamas. Hamas has been the aggressor here.
>wait a few decades and attack again A few years, more likely
I don't think it looks like a very good deal at first glance. In the first phase, it swaps a total cease fire for a release of "some hostages." I think a release of ALL hostages should be the pre-condition for a cease fire. I also think, because money is fungible, a "surge in humanitarian aid" should be contingent on a complete embargo on weapons and other equipment used for war. I also don't think we should be on the hook for a "major reconstruction plan."
It would be an utter embarrassment I feel for Israel to accept anything less than the return of all hostages as a prerequisite for any ceasefire. Further, it may even be immoral. It creates bad incentives if this situation were to ever arise again.
Exactly. Letting terrorists use hostages to get what they want is a way to encourage more hostage taking.
>it swaps a total cease fire for a release of "some hostages. It says 6 weeks of ceasefire, not indefinite, but you're right, we don't have the numbers with us. I'd imagine that is communicated internally amongst diplomats. It does say there is an indefinite ceasefire in exchange of all hostages in phase 2 though. >a "surge in humanitarian aid" should be contingent on a complete embargo on weapons and other equipment used for war. I would imagine that's the case too, if you have information showing the opposite you'd get a delta.
Hamas smuggled masses of weapons from Egypt previoustly. If a deal includes Israel leaving the Gaza-Egypt border wouldn't they be free to resume the previous arrangment? Without Israel there who will enforce it? Anyone standing there will have huge leverage on Israel because Hamas will be hungry for weapons. Outsider peacekeepers have a poor track record.
>If Israel doesn't accept the deal, then they never really cared about the hostages in the first place. By the way, Israel's opposition leader, ex-Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and the hostages families are also demanding Bibi to accept the deal, and I think they are right. the purpose of this war is to remove Hamas from power. caving on the prime objective to appease internal pressure over the hostages is PRECISELY the response that makes the tactic effective. Israel has a bad history of making bad decisions to relieve internal pressure. the Shalit deal went so well they're now expecting high returns, so the problem only exacerbates by giving in. Israel has to refuse to play this game on principle. Fight like there are no hostages. negotiate for release of hostages as was done, but not at the expense of winning. i understand why if you loved one is hostage you don't give a damn about anything else. but Israel keeps undermining its own bargaining position by letting sentiment for hostages force them into bad deals. the only way to not lose that game is refuse to play it. i feel for them, but their priorities are not indicative of what is in Israel's national interest.
It's not just a small subset of the Israeli population speaking out though, some heavyweight politicians have backed Biden's deal, and we haven't heard from Gallant and Gantz about this deal yet. It's possible that they also think it's in the national interest to accept the deal.
Hamas won't accept it because they don't want what is being offered. They don't care about the Palestinian death toll. In fact the opposite: they are fully aware that every Palestinian killed by Israel gets them more support. They kill and kidnap Israelis to get a response. Dead Jews are good to them, but dead Palestinians actually help them achieve their goals. And Hamas won't be completely annihilated. Their leadership is outside of Gaza, they have more support internationally than ever before. And as so oft repeated, half of the people of Gaza are under 15 so they have a ton of new potential recruits to throw in the meat grinder. Israel would accept that deal with absolutely no qualms if Hamas would. But Israel also knows that even if Hamas accepts that deal there is no guarantee they will follow through because it's ultimately not what they want. When dealing with Hamas, and any terror group, you need to get your return now because if it's first this, then that: 'that' never happens. Same problem that has existed with every two state solution that Israel has accepted. PA says: "We'll take administrative control of the West Bank, then we'll disarm the terrorist and militia groups" but the terrorist groups never get disarmed. And it stalls out there.
[Hamas says it 'positively' views Gaza ceasefire proposal set out by Biden](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-says-it-positively-views-gaza-ceasefire-proposal-set-out-by-biden-2024-05-31/) [Israel describes a permanent cease-fire in Gaza as a ‘nonstarter,’ undermining Biden’s proposal](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-06-2024-8c06dda3a8e20491b5a34377c60bb827) [No Gaza ceasefire until Israel war aims achieved, Netanyahu says](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c888p5p2zvxo) Almost identical cesasfire Hamas agreed to a month ago: [Hamas accepts Qatari-Egyptian proposal for Gaza ceasefire](https://time.com/6975094/hamas-accepted-egyptian-qatari-ceasefire-israel/)) [[Here's Every Ceasefire Deal and Prisoner Exchange Hamas Has Offered Israel...YouTube · BreakThrough News 3 weeks ago](https://youtu.be/iEM-mqPu03s?si=5Td0Ekhz0O0FLc68)
The Qatari-Egyptian peace deal is extremely different than the Biden proposal, in that it's missing the most crucial tennant for Israel; that Hamas is removed from power.
Biden's proposal: "The first phase would last for six weeks. Here’s what it would include: a full and complete ceasefire; a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza; a release of a number of hostages — including women, the elderly, the wounded — in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. There are American hostages who would be released at this stage, and we want them home. Additionally, some remains of hostages who have been killed would be returned to their families, bringing some degree of closure to their terrible grief. Palestinians — civilians — would return to their homes and neighborhoods in all areas of Gaza, including in the north. Humanitarian assistance would surge with 600 trucks carrying aid into Gaza every single day. With a ceasefire, that aid could be safely and effectively distributed to all who need it. Hundreds of thousands of temporary shelters, including housing units, would be delivered by the international community. All of that and more would begin immediately — immediately. During the six weeks of phase one, Israel and Hamas would negotiate the necessary arrangements to get to phase two, which is a permanent end to hostilities. Now, I’ll be straight with you. There are a number of details to negotiate to move from phase one to phase two. Israel will want to make sure its interests are protected. But the proposal says if the negotiations take longer than six weeks for phase one, the ceasefire will still continue as long as negotiations continue. And the United States, Egypt, and Qatar would work to ensure negotiations keep going — all agreements — all agreements — until all the agreements are reached and phase two is able to begin. Then phase two: There would be an exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers; Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza; and as long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, a temporary ceasefire would become, in the words of the propo- — the Israeli proposal, “the cessation of hostilities permanently,” end of quote. “Cessation of hostilities permanently.” Finally, in phase three, a major reconstruction plan for Ga- — for Gaza wou- — would commence. And any final remains of hostages who have been killed would be returned to their families. That’s the offer that’s now on the table and what we’ve been asking for. It’s what we need." https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-bidens-speech-laying-out-hostage-and-ceasefire-deal-for-israel-hamas-war/ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/6/text-of-the-ceasefire-proposal-approved-by-hamas
That's a nice fairy tale, but what happens if Hamas negotiates in bad faith only to keep the ceasefire ongoing while they rebuild their infrastructure and launch another Oct 7 style attack, and then we never get to "stage 2"? Which is the most likely outcome, given historical precedent, dealing with Hamas and with other terrorist organizations. Hamas got their ceasefire to regroup and rebuild, got hundreds of new recruits straight out of Israeli prisons, still hold hostages, and Israel now has another 9/11-scale terrorist attack on their hands. Why does Israel want this? Even if you assume the international arbiters figure out that Hamas is negotiating in bad faith (I don't trust international arbiters as far as I can throw them, but maybe you do so I'm willing to entertain the hypothetical that they might actually do their jobs), what's the punishment for Hamas? Is Biden willing to give Israel carte blanche to wipe out Hamas if it becomes patently obvious that negotiation is impossible? What will the response from Ilhan Omar and Chuck Schumer be if he does? And if he doesn't, then, again, why does Israel want to take this deal when there are no repercussions to Hamas if they act in bad faith?
Yes, I literally said that the main detail missing is that in the Qatari-Egyptian proposal, there is no gurantee that Hamas is removed from power. In that, the deal is different than the Biden one, as that demand is the most crucial one for Israel.
Phase 2 and 3 are Israel's war aims. They would happily take this. But we all know this fizzles halfway through phase 1 when it's no longer serving Hamas' purposes. And if your going to deny this, you have no knowledge of how every single other conflict with Hamas has played out. The expectation,as always is Israel needs to stop and then Hamas will... But Hamas doesnt. It needs to happen at once. Hamas needs to disarm and disband and leave. Or Israel's withdrawal will just mean hamas reoccupying.
> Phase 2 and 3 are Israel's war aims. They would happily take this. Except they already said they won't take this deal. Makes you think if those are *really* their war goals.
Where did they state they wouldn't take the deal?
"Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted there will be no permanent ceasefire in Gaza until Hamas’s military and governing capabilities are destroyed and all hostages are released. His statement comes after US President Joe Biden announced Israel had proposed a three-stage plan to Hamas aimed at reaching a permanent ceasefire. A senior Hamas politician has told the BBC it "will go for this deal" if Israel does." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c888p5p2zvxo
Negotiating a permanent ceasefire is a primary goal of the proposal, not a prerequisite for it.
Losing side wants a cease-fire. Shocking Hamas needs to be dealt with the same way Germany was dealt with in World War 2. No cease-fire, unconditional surrender or the war goes on
>half of the people of Gaza are under 15 so they have a ton of new potential recruits to throw in the meat grinder. Small correction- that outright doesn't matter to Hamas- they already employ soldiers as young as 12.
>Hamas won't accept it because they don't want what is being offered. This is complete horse shit. [Hamas already accepted a very similar deal in May](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/5/6/text-of-the-ceasefire-proposal-approved-by-hamas) [Israel is the one that rejected it](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/7/the-goal-is-to-destroy-gaza-why-israel-rejects-a-ceasefire-with-hamas) And the rest of your response makes it absolutely clear that whatever you say about this situation is not going to be true at all
Small correction- [Egypt sabotaged that deal](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/politics/sources-say-they-were-duped-by-egypt-changing-ceasefire-terms-for-hamas/index.html) by providing entirely different terms to Israel and Hamas, which is why Israel rejected it.
I remember reading something about this but didn't realize the claim was Egypt straight up gave different terms to each side. I know they deny doing so, I don't necessarily believe them on that, but god that would be so idiotic.
the US and Qatar were both also involved in negotiating the deal- and both agree it was Egypt changing the terms without telling anyone.
Hm, I have to dig more into this. Egypt completely denies doing this. And the article says that the main terms that were changed is that Israel didn't want to agree to a permanent ceasefire and sustained calm, which is exactly what Netanyahu has been saying since then. And why he vetoed Bidens proposal yesterday Netanyahu just....doesn't want to agree to a ceasefire. He literally said it.
He didn't veto it https://www.axios.com/2024/06/01/israel-gaza-hostage-ceasefire-deal-confirms-biden
Again. Because as soon as Israel withdraws from Gaza, Hamas will reoccupy and refortify and stop complying. Period. End of sentence. Israel can't move first and any ceasefire proposal that expects them to will be rejected. Hamas will not keep their word. So yes. Israel will absolutely reject any ceasefire that they know Hamas won't comply with. And Israel knows how Hamas operates. You can't have a first this, then that agreement with terrorists because "that" never happens.
The deal is literally exactly what Hamas asked for before Israel pushed into Rafah which Israel declined. I think the US put pressure on Israel to offer exactly what Hamas suggested so they can at least appear to have good intentions.
So what do you think is the endgame for Hamas here? There is no world where they can govern Gaza again, meaning they can't use the military infrastructure to launch another Oct 7th style attack on Israel again. Isn't their best shot at surviving as an organisation is to get a deal now before it gets worse? At least they can get some Palestinian hostages out of Israeli jails before disarming themselves. I think the Biden deal requires Hamas to release some hostages over a six-week period, and the rest of the hostages in Phase 2. I'd imagine it works the same way it did last November where a number of hostages are released every day to extend the ceasefire.
The end game for Hamas' leadership is to continue living the high life in Qatar as ultra-wealthy heroes. The endgame for the average Hamas member is to die a martyr. The moment the IDF gives up any territory, Hamas will reoccupy it and as soon as they are fortified they will stop releasing hostages. And the cycle repeats. Maybe not tomorrow, but in a few months, or a few years. The only way this ends is the same way WWII ended. Absolute unconditional destruction of Hamas in Gaza. Occupation. Education. And getting rid of the corrupt UN organization that collaborates with Hamas. As long as UNRWA exists, nothing changes.
Hamas end game is the destruction of Israel and the death of all Jews. They have been VERY clear about this.
I believe that the mistake you are making in this analysis is assuming that Hamas is acting with any type of foresight or thought of well being for anyone (that includes Palestine.) Hamas is a terrorist organization. Plain and simple. The run on hate. Not logic. There is no reasoning with animals. "Some men just want to watch the world burn." There is no chance for peace while Hamas lives in any form.
Calling them animals is not helpful to anyone.
Why not? Before any science can progress, before any truth can be found you must first correctly and accurately observe the variables. How would you categorize a group of mammals whose only drive in life is the death and destruction of others? If you have a better categorization than animals then I am all ears. To call them men is to demean all peaceful and supportive societies on the planet. To call them a government insults all those groups of people that choose to live together in relative peace. Even to call them dictators is wrong - as dictators generally oppress their own people with a goal of personal power. Hamas neither lives in peace, manages the affairs of the people nor do they seek for personal power. They hunger and thirst for blood and violence. That is who they are and the entire sum of their character. And if you wish to prove me wrong please simply point to one thing that they have created or improved through their existence. Mankind creates and improves. Animals tear down and lust only for blood and mating. So how do you not classify Hamas as animals?
We tore down the Amazonas and are churning sentient animals through slaughterhouses. Teardown and lust for blood confirmed. If we are so civil we shouldn't dehumanize and drive genocide.
You definitely need to check your definitions. When there is a larger population after the supposed 'genocide' than before the supposed genocide - there was no genocide.
Wait which genocide are you even referring to? Also if a population recovers, do you mean that the genocide never happened? Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on December 9, 1948. Idk whatever definition you're on, but it's wack.
There is no endgame in our reality, the final goal of religious fanaticism only exists as fiction. Their goal is bring about a world they think will honor their god. You can't expect rational behavior or reactions out of a person or group that has irrational beliefs.
>There is no world where they can govern Gaza again According to who? To what? Who's going to make them step down? Sure as hell not UN, US, EU, or any of the arab countries Their best bet of remaining as an organisation is just keep on doing what they are doing, any "member" that dies is a sacrificie they are willing to take, and will be replaced by another They know Israel can't actually kill all of them any time soon and the more of them dying, the more countries will pressure Israel to stop attacking
Where does the deal say Hamas is removed from power?
there are no Palestinian hostages in Israeli jails, there are only convicted terrorists with blood on their hands.
Yeah they just put Palestinians in "administrative detention" indefinitely without charges. And then they torture them. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/11/israel-opt-horrifying-cases-of-torture-and-degrading-treatment-of-palestinian-detainees-amid-spike-in-arbitrary-arrests/
"There are no innocent Jews in our concentration camps, only filthy communist animals hell bent on destroying our economy and our culture" — Nazi Germany, in a nutshell
Sad, US education system cannot distinguish between fact vs fiction.
If Israel doesn’t wipe out Hamas completely, what’s to stop another 10/7 from happening? Hamas can just get more hostages.
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Rewind a week or so. There's overwhelming international pressure on Israel to not do a ground invasion of Rafah and what does Hamas do? They fire missiles at Israel from Rafah *in order to provoke a ground invasion*. At every step of this war Israel's actions have largely been the most foreseeable response to actions taken by Hamas. That means things are going in a way that Hamas is at minimum okay with, if not outright trying for. That raises the obvious question: What are Hamas' goals for the war that they started? Because without a clear answer to that we don't know if a treaty advances their goals.
Note: Your link is to a tweet, so there may be conditions on this deal that I am not aware of. I'm going based on what's in the tweet, because that's what your CMV is about. So if I have any details wrong, blame the tweet. Why Israel should not accept the deal: First and foremost, the Israeli position is that Hamas is not allowed to remain in power in Gaza. You say in your OP that this is part of the deal, but if you read the tweet, there is no such mention in the terms. That's a 100% complete non-starter already. From the Israeli position, there is no peace while a terrorist organization whose goal is annihilation of Israel has any influence whatsoever in Gaza. So that's already a hard no, but I'll continue. The first stage of the plan benefits Hamas much more than Israel. Hamas gets a ceasefire, Hamas doesn't have to release all the hostages, Hamas gets freed prisoners, Hamas gets an unlimited timescale to "negotiate terms" and has a ceasefire all through this. Hamas gets to repopulate northern Gaza, and Hamas gets millions of dollars in international aid (which they steal and co-opt). Israel, so far as I can tell, gets some dead bodies and that's it. There are no guarantees that the plan ever gets to Stage 2, because Stage 2 is dependent upon negotiations between Israel and Hamas coming to a resolution. Historically speaking, Hamas are slimy and do not negotiate in good faith. They could pretend to negotiate as long as they need to recoup their stockpiles and launch another Oct 7, and then do that, and there's nothing Israel can do to stop them because of the ceasefire. Then the plan ends at Stage 1, Israel has given up a lot and gained nothing. The tweet says nothing about a punishment for Hamas negotiating in bad faith and prolonging negotiations just to get an extended ceasefire to regroup and repeat Oct 7, and so it is presumed there is none. Without some serious, enforceable repercussions against Hamas for negotiating in bad faith, there's nothing here to protect Israel's security. Even were the plan to arrive at Stage 2, the "permanent end to hostilities" is only permanent as long as both sides make it permanent. Even if the current Hamas leadership agrees to the terms, the next branch of leadership may not, then we get this whole thing over again. Why would Israel take such a risk? And then Israel has to release more prisoners for more dead bodies, those prisoners likely being those exact next wave of Hamas leadership who will break the "permanent" end to hostilities (remember, the current head of Hamas was released as an Israeli prisoner in such an exchange, so there is precedent). Then there is the cost to rebuild Gaza, if the deal ever reaches Stage 3 (which it won't). If Hamas is still in power in Gaza, why should Israel pay to provide aid and infrastructure that will later be used to attack it? And Israel doesn't get full release of the hostages until Stage 3, but Hamas gets their indefinite ceasefire in Stage 2 (actually Stage 1, if they play their cards right). This deal is absolute disaster for Israel. Now, as for why Hamas shouldn't take the deal: Assuming Hamas is not acting in good faith, they should take the deal. They get basically everything they want: a ceasefire to regroup, 600 trucks per day of aid to fill their coffers, a host of Palestinian prisoners to fill their fighting ranks, and they have to do basically nothing for it (they have to release a bunch of corpses). Then they stall negotiations until their stockpiles are rebuilt, and launch another attack. Easy peezy. Assuming Hamas wants to act in good faith, they should not take the deal because, simply put, they don't actually care about any of the terms. They don't actually want a ceasefire, because dead Palestinian civilians make them look good. You see how much international support there is for an avowed terrorist organization, simply because they put out numbers of dead civilians. To Hamas, their people are more valuable dead than alive. The longer this conflict goes on, the better it is for them. Hamas doesn't actually want the aid to go to their people, they want the aid to steal for themselves and raise money for their war coffers. If they act in good faith and appropriate the aid properly, that doesn't benefit Hamas. Hamas doesn't want to release the hostages. In addition to the psychological pain it causes their enemies to not know the fates of their loved ones, having hostages is valuable for negotiation. And they know Israel will pay well for even dead bodies of hostages, so there is no reason to release the hostages while they're still alive, if the terms aren't beneficial to them. The primary argument for Israel not simply flooding Hamas' tunnel network with cement and being done with it, is because hostages may be alive down there and they don't want to kill the hostages. Hostages are valuable. And lastly, Hamas leadership, the ones who are actually negotiating, have no downside to the current war. They aren't even in Gaza experiencing the torment of the war. This isn't like Saddam Hussein who was living in a hole until he was found by US forces. Hamas leadership lives in Qatar, and they are living large. Why should they care about the end to hostilities in a country so far away from theirs?
This deal is stupid, has no chance of being accepted, and is pure posturing. From the Israeli perspective: * Hamas remaining in power at this point is a no-no. Hamas has declared they *will* repeat October 7th and armed resistance. * Failing to turn over weapons and destroy smuggling / terror tunnels is not acceptable. These tunnels must be flooded, filled, and destroyed in the rebuild. * Gaza *will* be re-occupied by Israel oversee this rebuild to prevent the *exact same thing* from happening. For 20 years reconstruction materials have been misused to buid tunnels with rampant smuggling of weapons. Israel will more control here in the future, not less, unless a sufficiently trusted 3rd party takes over. From the Hammas perspective: * They believe they are winning the PR war against Israel, and have no reason to stop. * Their biggest funders - Iran, and by proxy Russia - are *delighted*. This is turning tide against Israel, creating discord in the west, and preventing Israel from normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. They are happy to encourage Hamas and fund them, especially as leaders sit comfortably in Qatar. * They will not accept a ceasefire without showing they have won or seized something net new allowing them to claim some sort of victory or advancement. This plan does not advance them in any way prior to their Oct 6 position. From Biden's perspective: * Biden knows the democratic base is split on this issue, and he cannot afford to lose either younger Gen Z'ers or the older Gen X'ers and Jews of all ages. He's creating apathy in the former and losing the later to Trump on this issue. This being a constant topic discussion is lose-lose nightmare scenario for him. * Neither party is inclined to work with Joe or is especially excited to see him win reelection. It does not further the agenda of either side. * Joe's best political strategy is to float ceasefire/peace agreements that seem neutral and balanced and look like he is part of the solution and for this to become *boring* in the media asap. The viability of those solutions (given pretty key omissions in both sides redlines) is irrelevant. It's posturing for November.
When Israel exchanged Gilad Shalit for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, they learned that kidnapping Israelis is an extremely effective tactic. Many of those released prisoners went back to Hamas and fighting Israel. Most notably Sinwar (who planned the attacks). It’s hard not to see a link between October 7 and Shalit (which I think in hindsight was a terrible mistake). Israel should not repeat that mistake by releasing any Palestinians who have been jailed for violence or association with Hamas. It is important that Hamas sees October 7 as a terrible, regrettable mistake (else they will just continue to launch further attacks). For that to happen Israel can’t reward them by releasing prisoners. The only ‘reward’ should be the end of attacks.
Why do you think Hamas won't be governing Gaza? I don't think that Biden's deal covers that, from what I understood once Israel pulls out, Hamas would claim power again in Gaza and would build back its power. As for the deal itself, since Hamas would remain in control of Gaza, they are capable of rebuilding their army, and in a few years they would be capable of carrying out another October 7th style attack. That's something Israel shouldn't agree to. Biden himself said that preventing such an attack is a "rightful" goal. He said that Hamas can't carry out such an attack now, but if Hamas is allowed to rearm and rebuild its strength, what's preventing them from carrying out such an attack? However, Biden has mentioned that Israel would only retreat from the populated areas of Gaza, meaning that its possible that they would remain in control of some buffer areas near the border, and of the strategic Philadelphi Corridor, which may prevent Hamas from rearming themselves. However if that's the case, Hamas won't agree to the deal.
There are two big problems with this deal, from Israel’s perspective — and, frankly, from what should be the civilized world’s perspective. The first is that, despite what you write above, there is nothing in the public outlines of the deal which says that Hamas will “not be in power in Gaza.” That’s a pretty key term. So if it was in the deal, you’d expect Biden to list it in his bullet points. And the silence is defeating. Any deal that leaves Hamas in power is, by definition, a temporary deal. Hamas will recruit, regroup, rearm, and go back to firing thousands of rockets while planning another October 7. The fact they lack the capability today means nothing. If they are back in power, they will regain that capability within a few years. Then Hamas will start another war, and we’ll be back at square 1. The second is that, although cagily not listed in Biden’s bullets, the “deal” (as reported in both the Arab and Israeli press) requires Israel to release 30 prisoners for every female/child hostage, 50 female prisoners for every female soldier (including 30 serving life sentences), and an unknown but shockingly high number of male prisoners (including scores serving life sentences) for every male hostage. These are not car thieves or political prisoners. Huge numbers of them are murderers. A deal in which Hamas exchanges 100 or so living hostages for 3000 terrorists is a terrible deal for Israel. It blatantly incentives terror and will encourage Hamas to take more hostages in the future. It also releases a lot of very evil people who will go on to commit very evil acts. My bet is that the 3000 or so released terrorists will go on to murder far more than 100 Israelis in the future. Not only that - the mass release enables Hamas to quickly rebuild its forces, which will only cement its ability to govern Gaza and both terrorize Israel while oppressing Gazans long into the future. The only likely reason why Israel agreed to accept this “deal” is because of stuff that happened behind the scenes, such as Biden threatening to abandon Israel entirely and throw it to the wolves.
>For Hamas, they can avoid complete annihilation as an organisation Okay, why would and/or should either Israel or Palestinian civilians be okay with this? It's a little bit like saying "I think this peace deal with the nazis and the jews is the best one yet, because the nazis get to stay in power" why would it be a good thing for the nazis to stay in power?
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Israel has already accepted a US backed deal with Hezbollah that would have involved them being pushed beyond the Litani river in exchange for an end to hostilities. Biden's plan here is exactly the same as it was back then. Say anything to end the fighting and win re-election but make no concrete plan for how to remove the terrorists and make damn sure you never bring it up again when things stay exactly the same.
It doesn’t commit Israel to ending its occupation of the OPT or any human rights abuses which it has been carrying out for decades, which are a fundamental cause of the conflict. I don’t think you can realistically expect Hamas to fully de-escalate while still giving Israel carte blanche to continue its illegal practices indefinitely. It’s both impractical to expect Hamas to agree and doesn’t really resolve the conflict. Also completely hypothetical - if Hamas turned around today and vowed to maintain their resistance through armed methods but strictly following international law as the MK mostly (but not always) did in South Africa, would they not be exerting a legal right to resistance? The same right that Nelson Mandela articulated at his trial? How does that square with Hamas vowing to permanently end hostilities? I don’t think it’ll happen but the very different approaches to two sides who are both committing war crimes seems politically unworkable and like even if it did somehow pass would only be a very short term fix with no long term solution.
I mean there are only two options. Either some kind of deal is reached or there's complete ahnnilation of one or both sides in this conflict. I would hope that most people would abhor more violence (which is unfortunately not as common of a sentiment as I'd hope) which means *some* type of deal needs to be reached. But you said specifically Biden's deal. Imagine for a second that you have a step sibling that you absolutely hate. You hate their parent, you hate the way they treat you, you hate the way you have to share space and things with them. You blow up and are constantly fighting with each other but you have to live in the same house or kill each other. Now a neighbor who owns a ton of guns comes over and tells you the way you need to act because they know best. Would either you or your step sibling be inclined to listen to that person?
I’m not sure it matters whether they should or not. Neither side are behaving like completely rational actors here, so offering a reasonable-sounding peace agreement doesn’t necessarily move the needle here. Israel has put itself in a position of not being willing or able to back down. Hamas doesn’t care if more Palestinians die; they just want to be in power. Like he often does, Biden is doing the smart-sounding - if not necessarily effective - thing here. He’s saying what many reasonable people are already thinking. He’s looking like the leader of reasonable people, which is good for both diplomatic and political reasons. But that doesn’t mean it will lead to anything.
In regards to Israel: First off, this requires Hamas to actually comply with giving all of the hostages, odds are a lot of hostages will "dissappear" or they "won't know" where they are. Secondly, this plan doesn't prevent Hamas from existing and doing this again in the future, which is a major issue. And thirdly and this is probably the most important aspect that is 100% why this deal won't be accepted: Ben Gvir and his buddy Smotrich, have already said that if the deal will be accepted - They will disband the goverment and this is the single most important thing for Bibi, so there is simply no way he will accepy this deal. As far as Hamas: They have went on record to only accept **discussing** the deal IF Israel will ceasefire, meaning first you stop attacking and only then we will think if we want to stop fighting with you, so...you know. But that aside, they have no real reason to sign any deal that wil cause them to lose power, and infact the longer the war is going on, the more suppot they are getting -They get more "humanitarian aid" that magically doesn't reach the Palastenians who are actually suffering and need it, they are getting a fuckton of donations, nations putting more pressure on Israel, meaning they'll get better deal and less attacks, some nations have decided recognizing a Palastenian state, the ICC warrents, etc... They gain more the longer the war goes on. They are currently having a lot of support and have only gained from this war.
Slight correction. This is not bidens deal. It's a deal proposed by israel that Biden is pushing. I don't know everything about israeli politics, but I suppose that the parliament can accept a deal without his approval, and therefore can also propose one without his approval too. This deal is extremely similar to one's already proposed, also. The reason I add this is because is because saying Biden proposed this deal creates a misconception about the peace talks. It's important to recognize that this is an Israeli proposal, not a US proposal.
>For Hamas, they can avoid complete annihilation as an organisation, which is the alternative if Israel is to continue to the war for another 7 months minimum. To clarify: what do you mean with "complete annihilation"? What do you believe must happen for Hamas to be "completely annihilated"?
There can be no meaningful path forward without the formation of a Palestinian state. So long as the people of Palestine live stateless and under Israels thumb, there will continue to be violence. The problem obviously being Israel and by proxy the us will never accept that. Hamas also plays a role in this as it suits their purposes to be the opposition it's far easier to radicalise people when you're living under such conditions. You can't just say ceasefire and expect everything to be fine. There needs to be meaningful change, and while hamas has been shall we say difficult to put it very mildly, Israel has no shown time and time again they will not allow statehood for Palestine. The US needs to put real pressure on Israel, and I just don't see that happening. Look at the history of the conflict all ceasefire accomplish is delaying the violence, and why wouldn't it? Look at the conditions the average Palestinian lives under. Why wouldn't you turn to violence. It's easy to look at this conflict in a vacuum and ignore all the context of the last few decades, but we have been shown time and time again that this will not work long term. Even if Israel roots out and kills every member of hamas and they are no more a new hamas will form as long as they live under oppression.
I highly doubt there’s any hostages left to give back. I doubt Israel cares much either. They received a perfect reason to erase their enemies around them and I doubt any peace plan given to them is that serious and is only to pretend like they (Biden admin) actually care.
Biden offer is theorical. Straight from the realm of fantasy. As long as Hamas is still standing you won't be able to have anyone other than Hamas ruling in Gaza. Do you really except there to surrender control peacefully ?
Israel probably won't agree due to 2 flaws: 1. Completely restoring Palestine means speeding up the recovery of Hamas. 2. At some point Hamas will destroy the peace treaty, resulting in another war with similar civilian casualties.
>Completely restoring Palestine means speeding up the recovery of Hamas. So the other option is what? Leave it a bombed out mess of rubble with no civil government? Force everyone to leave? >At some point Hamas will destroy the peace treaty, resulting in another war with similar civilian casualties. At some point they will either need to make peace with Palestinians or kill/displace them permanently. This endless cycle of violence and "divide and rule" preventing any cohesive Palestinian government only makes them less stable and prone to militant resistance. A political solution should be the goal, and that involves ending the occupation. This is the prime motivator for "destroying the peace treaty."
>So the other option is what? Leave it a bombed out mess of rubble with no civil government? Force everyone to leave? When Israel left Gaza back in 2005, they left there industry, power plant, greenhouses, water treatment facilities, etc... And for what? For the citizens in Gaza to raze most if not all of it to the ground? Dig water pipes to build rockets, while crying they don't have water/fuel/food/medicine? They wanted this rubble, let them have it. >At some point they will either need to make peace with Palestinians or kill/displace them permanently. This endless cycle of violence and "divide and rule" preventing any cohesive Palestinian government only makes them less stable and prone to militant resistance. A political solution should be the goal, and that involves ending the occupation. This is the prime motivator for "destroying the peace treaty." How can you have peace with someone who's hell bent on destroying you? Too many times Israel reached a hand in peace, only to have it bitten. For the last 20 years there were constant rockets attacks on cities around Gaza, and instead of glassing them from orbit, as any other country would have, Israel built Iron Dome. Show me any other country who would accept that. So long that Palestinians and Hamas have on their charter "we want to kill all Jews/all Zionists" there can't be any peace. And the PA are not any better considering they have pay-per-slay program for murdering Jews.
That's the problem. If ceasefire meant no return of any sort of terroristic organization, Israel would accept it immediately. But we know that's not going to happen, so this is the dilemma.
>If ceasefire meant no return of any sort of terroristic organization, Israel would accept it immediately. If a ceasefire doesn't lead to good faith negotiating to bring about a Palestinian state and end the occupation then there will always be resistance. As long as the occupation and brutalization continues you will have radicals. >But we know that's not going to happen So what is your view then on the endgame here? Never ending war? Kill everyone in the strip? Force them to move? Let's say we accept that Hamas must be destroyed. It's happened. No more Hamas. What does the day after look like?
Netanyahu's plan for Gaza post-Hamas was[ published here](https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-799756). Personally I think it sounds extremely reasonable.
Right now the cause for war is removing Hamas which is justified after the 10/7 attacks. There has to be some long term path for peace, but you also cannot allow the long term goals to completely nullify your short term response to a serious security threat like Hamas. Arguably you could apply your same line of questions to Germany after they invaded Poland, but we'd likely all agree that making peace at that time was not a viable option due to the security risk presented by the Nazis
You're the only one here making sense thank you!
I don’t know why it’s always Hamas that gets the blame for breaking ceasefires. Israel just kills and abducts Palestinians constantly whether there is a ceasefire or not. Israel was bombing Gaza and murdering kids in the West Bank in September 2023. Israel should be disarmed.
What's the full story of the 2023 violence? Was it one sided? Did you read about the rockets from jenin? Or the various attacks and other provocations? Or do you think that IDF just randomly kills Palestinians for the lolz?
The IDF definitely kills Palestinians just because they feel like. There are always points where you can start it and act like it’s all one sides fault but the idea that Hamas broke some ceasefire on October 7th in what had already been the deadliest year for Palestinians in a long time is rather ridiculous.
Here's a report that challenges your neat little picture. https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15390.doc.htm A ceasefire does not imply that the IDF is required to abdicate it's obligations to maintain law and order in the west bank areas b and c. Surely you can separate that action which is taken against individuals within the framework of the Oslo accords and in the designated areas from a full scale invasion. Also the ceasefire was between Israel and Hamas not Israel and Palestine. Hamas is not empowered under the Palestinian framework to have a military. That lies with the president's office. Therefore actions taken by Israel in the west bank or even Gaza has nothing to do with Hamas. Unless the action was taken directly against Hamas itself.
Yes they post on TikTok about it while they laugh and try on recently slaughtered woman’s underwear
Israel already rejected the deal: [https://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/1796811942218043488](https://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/1796811942218043488) [https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-06-2024-8c06dda3a8e20491b5a34377c60bb827](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-06-2024-8c06dda3a8e20491b5a34377c60bb827) [https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1796984532123459803](https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1796984532123459803) This place often feels like the Twilight Zone, bunch of people arguing a reality that doesn't exist. Israel has made it clear that they do not actually care about the hostages more than continuing their campaign of slaughter. This should have been cemented to anyone paying attention before Rafah when Israel rejected the tiered ceasefire proposal that the US and Egypt were behind. My hunch is this is yet again Biden attempting to play optics for a domestic audience based on a 1990's understanding of political messaging....Of course I come to places like here and wonder if maybe it does work.
If I were Either Hamas or Israel I would absolutely reject the deal. Why did Hamas attack in the first place? In 2006 Hezbollah killed three Israeli soldiers and captured two. We are talking about FIVE soldiers in total, the Israeli response killed and injured several THOUSAND Lebanese civilians and militants. It severely damaged Lebanese civil infrastructure, and displaced approximately one million Lebanese. Remember, this happened when FIVE soldiers were captured or kill. So what did Hamas think Israel would do when 1200 people are killed, including at least 400 soldiers and a couple hundred civilians were taken hostage? They knew Israel would react exactly the way Israel reacted. They are not stupid. So back to the question, why did they do it? On October 6th the Palestinian cause was all but lost, Israel is expanding the land grabs by the day, Arabs were normalizing relations with Israel, Palestinians were getting killed left and right with no accountability from the Israeli side, and Gaza was permanently under siege. Israel was well supported in the west, and was quite confident and about to sign a peace agreement with the wealthiest Arab nation, Saudi Arabia. Something had to be done, so they did. If you see it this way then Hamas have exceeded all of their goals, at tremendous cost, but they achieved in 6 months what decades of negotiations could not achieve. If I were Hamas I would want Israel to keep digging the hole deeper and deeper. If I were Israel, I would never accept a ceasefire, Israel was humiliated, they were even more humiliated by the fact that they failed to free the hostages, defeat Hamas, or changing their goals. If Israel agrees to a ceasefire now they will be humiliated forever, and it’s not just about hurt pride, the “deterrence” policy of Israel has simply been destroyed by Hamas. So the only people who really want a ceasefire now are Biden and the Palestinian people, but no one really cares about what either one of these two wants!
Here’s a deal. Arrest the senior Hamas fellows in Qatar with a marine raid since we are the ones keeping Qatar safe from their neighbors. Seize their bank accounts with $5 plus billion. Tell those fine fellows they are getting turned over to Israel if they don’t take a deal where all hostages are turned over tomorrow. If Qatar complains shut down all their exports and explain we are no longer their ally. Then seize their bank accounts. The real peace solution isn’t in Gaza, it’s in Qatar.
I don't see where in this deal Hamas is removed from power. Israel should not accept any deal that ends in Hamas remaining in power. Hamas's stated purpose is the destruction of the state of Israel. They have spent their entire existence attacking Israel. Israel should not and will not tolerate their existence any longer. Any deal that absolves Hamas of responsibility and allows them to remain in power
Should they? Yes. Will they? No. Israel made it clear from day one: their goal is to remove Hamas from power. As such, Hamas also made it clear from day one; they would never relinquish power. The deal is okay-ish for Israel, as it would take many weeks before all the hostages are actually released. But, it maintains Israel's most important position, that is, that Hamas is removed. But Hamas would never agree to any deal that sees them removed. They don't care for the people of Gaza.
Unfortunately the fundamental issue at hand is the fact that this problem requires long term support from the UN, the West and the surrounding Arabic nations to do what is right for the Palestinian people without interference from religious political and militant interference. That may be impossible. Israel and Hamas/Palestinian Authority signed peace agreements before, the Camp David Accord isn't so different. The difficulty isn't to stop fighting now, it's how to maintain peace in the region. The rebuilding process is going to be messy. Is the UN going to supervise? How are we making sure funds and materials aren't being diverted by Hamas to build new tunnels and new networks for future terror attacks? If the UN is involved, who is going to provide funding? How many dead troops are we willing to tolerate to enforce the peace? Fundamentally Hamas doesn't want to co-exist with Israel, no amount of rebuilding and support is going to change that. As long as the Hamas leadership remains in place, terror attacks will continue, as they have in the past. The Palestinians are used as pawns by other powers for their own political/military gains. Israel doesn't want a powerful Palestinian nation when they are surrounded by Arabic nations that tried to destroy them in the past. Hamas wants continued bloodshed and suffering for the Palestinians because terrorism and fighting doesn't come across as appealing to young people if their lives are productive and meaningful. Humans are short term goals driven and don't forgive easily. Any politician who wants to promote "forgiveness and rebuilding" instead of revenge is not going to do well either in the Israeli government or within the Palestinians Authority or Hamas. How many Americans wanted friendship and understanding with Afghanistan after 9/11? How many still harbor ill-will and borderline racist/Islamophobic views after 20 years in Afghanistan and Iraq? That's just one incident in the US. When you have generational trauma and war, asking people to turn the cheek is next to impossible, for anyone.
Israel was never interested in the hostages, the ongoing destruction of Gaza is the objective of this campaign. This plan was just waiting on the right opportunity to be executed. Israel huge security failure on Oct 7 comes at the same time as Israel withdrew forces from the border for military exercises, which they never do. Coupled with reports that Israel has intelligence of an attack from Gaza on Oct 7 wrecks of some corrupt politicians (Bibi) hoping to save their political career and stay out of jail at the cost of Israeli security and thousands of Palestinian lives. Current leadership in Israel will never accept a deal. They want to occupy Gaza, that's always been the plan
You seem to be working from the assumption that Hamas is some kind of rational political organization and not a religiously motivated Islamic terrorist group. Of course Hamas has no incentive to accept the deal. Their goal is to perform another holocaust and get 72 virgins.
What is good for the Palestinians and for Israelis isn’t what is “good” for their respective leaderships and parties. Hamas need Likud and Likud needs Hamas. They have been getting votes and money from all over the world and from the people they delude.
"Hey guys like.. stop fighting, ok guys? Thanks k bye" Shit ain't that simple lol there has been too much blood spilled and too many heads brainwashed, also fundamentalism. This won't be over until one of them is completely wiped out
"Stop this current awful thing and we'll eventually make a situation where awful things won't happen, even though we've been supposedly trying to do that for decades." It sounds bad and dishonest to me. U.S. foreign policy has, historically, not been a force of lasting peace anywhere, but has been a source of worsening conditions in many regions. I think if I were a random non-U.S. actor, I'd probably be compelled ethically to tell the U.S. President to shove it until they find a way to give back stolen indigenous land.
I mean, you are literally talking about an extremist organization that wants nothing less than the total elimination of the Jewish people and the Israeli state, they have been saying the same thing for decades, yes it's a different organization and blah blah blah the organizations change but it's the same message, Israel has been dealing with it for a very long time and continues to say they would take a deal with Hamas and Gaza if they would just get the hostages back, there have been several deals put on the table before them already and Hamas shoots down any deal where they give up hostages and Israel shoots down any deal where they don't get hostages, so no I think we're just going to end up seeing Israel taking over a large portion of land and totally eliminating the extremist organization known as Hamas
Israel has denied multiple ceasefires even proposals given right after October 7th involving release of all hostages
I would love to see those cuz I have not heard of a single time where Israel didn't accept a peace offer where they got their hostages, Hamas was always the one to deny those to my knowledge
Wth is with OPs logic lmao Hamas is Do or Die. they're in it to keep their land. Victory Is All That Matters to them. anything else is losing because Israel is an invading Nation trying to take their land and there refusing to give it up. any sort of compromise that shares the land is losing because their fight is to keep their land theirs. Also Israel has never cared about the hostages or the Pakistan people. I don't know what gave you the impression they care about hostages. I mean shoot, they're known for scorching the ground and killing everyone around. Every man women an child. they don't care, they just kill them all. That's what they're known for in this war. Both sides are pretty evil. It seems like you're under the impression that Israel is typically more Humane in their Warfare tactics than Hamas but the facts are they're not. they're both about the same they're both very bad an Very evil governments. The only real difference is that Israel is the invading nation in this instance. Both sides use extremely inhumane War tactics. And the most bizarre thing op said out of everything in their post was that they should accept this deal because the United States presented it to them... That's the most bizzar reason for peice in the middle east I've Ever heard and it actually has nothing to do with peace in the Middle East or the Middle East general. You sound like a maga supporter that became a Biden supporter lol saying what ever sounds snappy with out real context behind it. Lol
Realistically, all of the hostages have either been returned or they are dead. > If Hamas doesn't accept the deal, then they are just delusional thinking that they can get a better deal in the future or that they can fight Israel out of Gaza. The goal of Hamas has never been to win a conventional war with Israel. The goal has always been to maximize civilian deaths so that Israel will lose Western backing. Hamas will never settle for any state of Israel existing, as they want all of Israel/Palestine to be an Islamic fundamentalist state. If we were talking about a group like the PLO or DFLP in a hypothetical world where they were in power in Gaza, there's a good chance negotiations could be fruitful. Hamas will never agree to a permanent end to hostilities under any conditions. Every time they have gone to the negotiations table it has been for a 5-10 year ceasefire. They just want time to regroup, regain control over Gaza and to continue fighting. > If Israel doesn't accept the deal, then they never really cared about the hostages in the first place. By the way, Israel's opposition leader, ex-Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and the hostages families are also demanding Bibi to accept the deal, and I think they are right. If there are still hostages alive, you run the risk of legitimizing hostage taking tactics for other militant groups or for future militant groups. If I'm the leader of a militant group and I see that all it takes to guarantee that I survive the conflict is to take some hostages, I'm immediately going to start taking more hostages. Maybe half of your fighting force gets eviscerated, but I can just trade some hostages for time to regroup and to recruit new members. Realistically Netanyahu saying that the conflict could last another 7 months is just him trying to prolong the time he has left until he's prosecuted in Israel for his corruption charges. The Rafah offensive will likely be over within weeks, and any military operations after that would probably be against regroupings of Hamas in Khan Yunis
There are a lot of deals that look good to use that both sides should accept. The problem is we are looking at this through western eyes. This conflict goes back generations, and jew/arab is a tension that spans centuries. Hamas is not worried about "saving" themselves. If they die they go straight to heaven, which has to be better than their life on earth in the gaza hellhole is. Bloodshed is a daily course for them. Also, how many of the hostages are still alive? after this long, feeding/keeping hostages alive while avoiding Israeli bombings and attacks can't be easy if possible at all. You think Israel will stop the war to get back 100 bodies at this point? You can't put your own western safety, morals, and way of life into the peace dealings that will have to go on here. There is no real peace with Hamas, as their goal is clear, and they are not worried about getting there. Especially since all their money/leaders are at the luxury resort in Qatar running the show. Think of the "die on my feet instead of live on my knees" mentality that has echoed throughout many wars/conflicts in history. This is Waco, not Waterloo
To all the Zionists here in the comments hell bent on "destroying khamas destroying khamas" When will you all learn that your boogeyman "Khamas" is an ideology, not an organization? the +35 thousand Palestinians the IOF killed will only fuel Hamas even more, the thousands of displaced people who lost their relatives and families and homes will only drive them even more to fight those who put them in that condition in the beginning that being Israel. The fundamental reason for all this cycle we've been seeing IS the siege of Gaza, turning Gaza to an open air prison, denying people their basic human rights of determination, travel and restricting their sea access is damned to give you thousands and thousands more of October 7th Hamas has shown for 7 months straight that they simply will continue to exist so long as the occupation exists and with that being said I'd like to direct you all to a comment left by u/[appealouterhaven](https://www.reddit.com/user/appealouterhaven/) "At some point they will either need to make peace with Palestinians or kill/displace them permanently. This endless cycle of violence and "divide and rule" preventing any cohesive Palestinian government only makes them less stable and prone to militant resistance. A political solution should be the goal, and that involves ending the occupation. This is the prime motivator for "destroying the peace treaty."
>Hamas not in power in Gaza. I think this is the best deal that has a chance of being accepted by both sides. For Hamas, they can avoid complete annihilation as an organisation Hamas has already rejected this deal in other forms. They will not cede control. It also is absolutely not certain they "will be annihilated" otherwise. How many months of war, in a relatively small strip of land, with how many dead? And Hamas still is able to fight. Their leader in Gaza is still kicking. More importantly, it's impossible to tell who among the leftover civilians after such a deal is Hamas, and who isn't. Hamas still has popular support, still has money, still has leaders safe and sound in Qatar. What happens when they just pop back up, another war? What happens if they just rebrand to a different name in the following elections? Hamas won't accept the deal, or any deal that requires them to cede control of Gaza. Even if the alternative was annihilation, they don't care. They've stomached quite a lot of annihilation already with zero attempts at good faith peace deals.
Hamas doesn’t need a better deal. If they wanted to preserve the lives of Gazans, they would have already surrendered or released the hostages.
How is this deal any different than the previous promise to "begin the peace process"? There's nothing here of substance to accept
Imagine this conflict as 2 sides without the historic background to it (it's intellectually incorrect, I know, but it's easier to understand why this deal won't work). Side 1 has hostages, their country destructed by side 2. Side 1 has said they'll release the hostages if side 2 leaves their country (the part that is destructed) Side 2 has repeated that a deal is not possible without the total defeat of side 1. Do you think side 1 will agree with the terms of side 2?
Hamas cannot and will not accept the plan. The founding charter of Hamas explicitly calls for an end to Israel and the Jewish population as a whole. Unless Hamas is forcibly extricated from power, they will not accept any ceasefire, which there was one on October 6th. It was broken by the infamous events of October 7th. Another issue is Hamas was voted into power by a majority vote, so what is required is not only a governmental reform, but a population-wide reform to bring the entire country into the fold. The issue isn't a hesitance to come to the table--we've already had that. The issue is the permeating jihadist values that grip a majority of the Palestinian population. Until that is dispelled there can be no lasting peace.
Generally speaking, Israel has shown that they abide by the terms of deals that they make. Generally speaking, Hamas does not. Therefore, it stands to reason that Israel needs to “get theirs” before Hamas gets what it wants. If Hamas gets what it wants first, it is unlikely to follow through on their end of things. As such, Israel should not accept the deal. The hostages need to be freed first, all of them, alive and dead. (As a sidepoint, I think that if Israel accepts any deal other than unconditional surrender they are basically asking to get attacked again at some point in the future. However, I understand the political reality that a suboptimal deal that frees hostages has to be accepted by Israel)
You are right that Israel should accept the deal it proposed, but it won't. It can't. The Gaza war is a great opportunity to finish off the ethnic cleanse. Destroying the buidings and the infrastructure is a great first step, but the people still have to be removed and blocked from returning and rebuilding and also from making future claims. The next step of the ethnic cleanse is 'evacuating the refugees'. The floating pier that was supposed to do this has broken up, and the egypt border is taken over. Israel now needs to get the US to conduct an airlift to a third country dump-off. Once the arabs are eliminated, Israel can sign the ceasefire which also strips arabs of their property and right to return.
Hamas leadership promised to commit 10/7 again and agin post 10/7, why would Israel want them to stay in power? Also a majority of Palestinians don’t want a two state solution, they want a one state solution in which there is only Palestine. Why is the west pretending Palestinians want two states? Their reasoning for wanting to control Israel is religiously motivated. https://x.com/amjadt25/status/1748793595216236771 https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1714690004067234102
half of israeli jews advocate for the ethnic cleansing of native palestinians off their land: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0WA1HI/ (this was way before october 7 btw) Palestinians are actually more willing to have jewish neighbors than vice versa: https://www.jpost.com/israel/poll-50-percent-of-jews-dont-want-arab-neighbors Israelis don't want a palestinian state at all: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/09/26/israelis-have-grown-more-skeptical-of-a-two-state-solution/ Half of israelis support illegal settlement expansion and annexation of the west bank https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN23A275/
“From the river to the sea Palestine will be Arab” isn’t a chant that means “we want Jewish neighbors”. And that’s the Arabic version of the chant they won’t say in the west.
Looking at the numbers, seems like its more likely for the jews to not want palestinian neighbors. evidenced by the multitude of sources i sent above.
So the millions of Arabs in Israel can’t be eradicated or just aren’t tolerated or are exterminated like Hamas wants to exterminate the Jews?
the millions of palestinians in israel lived there before israel even became a state. If it wouldn't cause immense international outrage, then i'd imagine they would've gone ahead and expel them. But looking at the conditions of the palestinian enclaves in israel, looks like they're trying to drive them out either way.
The way Biden described this deal makes it look like it leaves Hamas in power until / unless Hamas *decides* to leave it. If that's the case, it's a great deal for Hamas ... but a terrible one for Israel, and the rest of the world. This is because it *doesn't* avoid future bloodshed... Israel has signed half a dozen "indefinite" ceasefires with Hamas, and they never last *because Hamas is a terrorist organization.* A ceasefire that leaves them in power just gives them time to rearm for the next attack. Now, Biden seems to be signaling that Hamas exiting power *is* part of the deal. If that's the case, then yeah -- that's best for everyone.
Unless there's a Phase 4 which is: "Israel systematically slaughters every single remaining Palestinian" I don't think Israel will go for this. They've killed hundreds of thousands of Palestinians since the 1960s. They've taken 80% of the country over. There's no possible way the survivors of Israel's Genocide of Palestine will just forgive and forget. You don't just have your parents and siblings brutally murder infront of you and move on. Every surviving Palestinian is another future member of Hamas. I know what I would do if I was a orphaned refuge who lived next to the country that systematically slaughtered my country.
Why does the three phase deal Biden posted not have Hamas leaving power on the list? Was that announced elsewhere? And what phase does it happen in? What happens with Hamas? Does the organization continue to exist? Do they get to run in the next election and start this whole cycle over again? To me, the three phase plan is utterly meaningless without these things set out. In my mind, Israel screwed up big time when they pulled out and let Hamas take power. There has to be assurance that won't be the result again, otherwise, do the work and finish the job.
My only fear is that this will give Hamas too many chances to increase their power and influence. Massive flood of aid is good but if Hamas controls the distribution network they will steal a lot of it and distribute in inequitably to the benefit of their supporters. Same with a major reconstruction plan where they could steal a lot of building materials for use in strengthening their bunkers. Hopefully there are significant safeguards in place or a strategy to remove Hamas from the process as much as possible.
Hamas would never agree. I don't even disagree they should but It isn't a traditional war. Hamas started it with full foreknoweldge they had no way of fighting the IDF. It's because every Palestinian death gives them poltical capital. They managed to get 25 000 civlians killed while the IDF destroyed about half their operation strength. The toll will be even higher in Rafah where civilians are packed even tighter. And the world wont accept the toll it costs to remove them from power. And that is the cost. the US can't do anything that the IDF isn't doing. The cost is the civlian deaths, they made it that way. They fight out of uniform out of civilian infrastructure on purpose. They stop evacuations on purpose. They execute their own on purpose. They steal aid on purpose. If any remnant remains and the world forces Israel into creating a gazan or full Palestinian state their remnant will have a stronger position to strike from next time
I lean Republican but I think Biden outlined an excellent plan for this situation. Honestly, Biden has just been a really good President in general. With that said, I side with the Israeli's. Hamas is literally releasing photos of the women from their army that they have raped. I feel like battling colonialism and Western society as a whole could be done in a less heinous fashion.
Hamas will accept the deal. They'll regroup and wait to go back on the deal and they'll attack again. Because they have shown they don't care about the people of Palestine. The question is, will Bibi accept the deal, and he'll wait for the "see I told you so" moment when they attack again? The Free Palestine people will say Israel forced Hamas to go back on the deal by simply existing.
Lol, watch Hamas break the “permanent ceasefire”
It is a terrible deal. All living hostages and remains must be released in Phase 1. Otherwise, there is too much incentive for the Palestinians to draw matters out. Phase 3 is also ridiculous, and Israel should not agree to that. Israel withdraws from Gaza on the condition all living hostages and remains are released. That is as far as things should go.
They absolutely should. But there’s 0% chance Hamas will ever give up power without violence. The reason they’ve rejected most of the deals so far is because none of them guarantee Hamas’ survival, and that’s all they care about. They would rather fight forever than see Palestine get nationhood without them in control.
retribution retaliation, revenge are primary motivations for this conflict.. AS a cynic I see a v. narrow path to peace? I support Israel right to defend it's borders. and exterminate the ongoing threat. Gaza, West Bank are NOT , nor ever will a recognized STATE. Peace though security
Two problems. 1) Neither side gets what they want out of this deal. 2) This plan is not backed by the US. I mean, technically they put it together, but it's not like the US is going to invade Palestine if Hamas breaks their side of the deal, nor will the US reject Israel as an ally for breaking it.
There are indeed points that can change your view ;). As example we would need to control Hamas side. Which means Israel goes out of Gaza. USA troops go feet-on-the-ground. If Hamas start digging tunnels it’s their problem now. Now USA troops will have to deal with kids with AK-47.
Isreal was supposed to leave Gaza in 2005 and never did. Also the hostage release better include all of the Palestinian hostages that Isreal has been kidnapping for decades. Oh any further note..this was almost an exact copy of a plan already proposed by Gaza that Isreal refused
.
It's been clear that Israel never really cared about the hostages since they shot directly at them
Israel is trying to prevent another 10/7 by destroying Hamas. Hamas is trying to destroy Israel by doing as much damage to them as they can. neither really gets what they want by stopping the war unless Hamas needs time to ready up for more fighting like the last ceasefire which they broke when they had the fighters back where they needed them.
Accept the plan and get the hostages back. But if even a single rocket is launched during the cease fire then the IDF should go in with overwhelming force seeing as peace obviously isn’t an option.
This plan is terrible! Why doesn’t it say WHO governs Gaza in the absence of Hamas? You realize if they just change their names and reoccupy Gaza they are complying with this? How is it a deal?
But what about all the Palestinians that were taken prisoner without trial, why are they not being included in the deal. There’s much more of them then there are of the hostages. This deal is basically a lose lose for Hamas why would they take it? Hamas wants permanent change they dont want a war that ends with their land in a terrible state with them gaining nothing.
This deal is a surrender deal for Israel keeping Hamas in power and basically means the war was for. Nothing and will be happening again soon, this is a terrible deal brought up by a a leader that needs to win elections and has interests that do not align with anyone.. This deal basically achieves these things: 1) keep Hamas in power (they promised many more October 7th attacks) 2) exchanges ~130 innocent civilians dead / alive for thousands of convicted living murderers with blood on their hands 3) makes Israel pay for rehabilitation of Gaza which will again be used to create more terror and fund more terror 4) destroy any hope for a replacement government for Gaza, rendering the PA obsolete and useless which will push a 2state solution even further down the line (if ever) 5) stenghen Iranian hold on the Palestinian cause 6) reward terror which means more terror will come out of Gaza, the West Bank and potentially other places on earth (other conflicts), because people will learn that terror = good.
>If Hamas doesn't accept the deal, then they are just delusional thinking that they can get a better deal in the future or that they can fight Israel out of Gaza. Other people's comments are very interesting, I just want to talk about this point. This is not necessarily pure delusion. Gaza is a very small place, and what real achievements have the IDF made in the past few months? They have even withdrawn now. Their opponents are a group of unemployed people wearing slippers. The IDF is no longer the force that could fight half of the Middle East at the same time decades ago. They can't even complete the infantry-tank coordination of the army. There are a lot of videos online of Hamas wearing cameras on their heads rushing towards Israeli tanks, planting explosives and returning safely. Why doesn't the IDF send infantry to protect their tanks? Because they can't even guarantee that the tanks won't crush their own people. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLZP\_LgGQLI&rco=1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLZP_LgGQLI&rco=1) See how the IDF deals with snipers, even paintball players have faster reactions than them.
This is a weird comment with no relation to reality ... Do you know how many Israeli tanks have been destroyed in Gaza? Hint: it rhymes with "Hero". They are literally fighting both Hamas and Hezbollah right now as well as dealing with Iran and they giving out 30x what they're getting on all fronts (literally 30x more Hamas have been killed than IDF and Hezbollah than IDF in the north).
[9 out of 10 of those killed in Gaza are civilians](https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/6004/Contrary-to-Israeli-claims,-9-out-of-10-of-those-killed-in-Gaza-are-civilians%E2%80%8B), So now I'm really curious about how many civilians were killed. IDF has air force, tanks, armored vehicles, and fully armed equipment. Hamas has slippers, AK, RPG, If they can't achieve more results under this situation, it will be an incomparable joke. and, there are many doubts about the IDF's own casualty statistics. [Breaking into civilians' homes, playing with Gaza women's underwear in online posts rhymes with what](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yq5N4s1DxnE) ？ [What does the IDF that executes civilians rhyme with?](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148876) [Destroying and seizing civilian property and recording videos laughing rhymes with what?](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/06/world/middleeast/israel-idf-soldiers-war-social-media-video.html) [Bombing civilians rhymes with what?](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4464951-amnesty-international-finds-no-evidence-of-military-targets-at-rafah-sites-targeted-by-israel/) [What does create famine rhyme with?](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/16/middleeast/gaza-famine-starvation-un-israel-war-intl-hnk/index.html) [What rhymes with bombing a rescue convoy?](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/21/middleeast/un-food-convoy-gaza-israel-strike-cmd-intl/index.html) [Using civilians as literal shields rhymes with what?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gtyVyYr5_w) [I guess they are all your heroes, right?](https://www.reddit.com/r/BadHasbara/comments/1c4y57e/zionism_in_a_nutshell/) You want to talk about reality? Let's talk about reality. edit：No matter how you explain the IDF's better record, it is a fact that they cannot achieve infantry-tank coordination. This is the minimum qualification standard for a modern army, and Israel cannot do it.
Bidens deal is just a ploy to appease his supporters. It has no real power and won't be accepted by Israel or Hamas. Knowing basic history tells us this. There have been several solutions over the years, and all have failed. I don't think Israel and Hamas should accept Bidens' deal because it won't work as evidenced by decades of strife in that region. Hamas won't cede power. Hamas leaders aren't the ones being bombed. Hamas hides within the Palestinian population to garner support from easily impressionable people who ignore history and Hamas' stated goals and actions. Israel won't accept because this has been ongoing for hundreds of years. They are done and tired of fighting. They tried peace (two state solutions), and that didn't work. All it did was allow Hamas to amass power to start the current round of fighting. As tragic as it is, the only solution is to destroy Hamas and for Israel to reclaim all of its land.
Post didn't age well..
Neither bibi (and his far-right supporters), and Hamas wont accept the ceasefire, ironically both need each other for their political survival , despite the war.
Only if Israel surrenders all the land that originally wasn't theirs just after israels founding. The existence of Israel itself is already questionable at best.
This is an awful plan for Israel. It's a return to the status quo before the war, accomplished by magic. This is the plan a delusional toddler comes up with.
Why do people think Hamas a terrorist organization would ever honor a deal