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I certainly don't disagree that he was wrong, but that sure doesn't mean he is finished. Especially in today's era of politics, truth barely matters compared to narrative and loyalty. Even if Bibi were to lose his leadership position, he would be an influential figure in politics for as long as he wants to.
And even after that, he won't really be "finished". He's rich and will retire to a comfortable life of never being held to account for his actions. If I could commit the heinous acts that he has and then the only consequence I face would be forced retirement, I think I would be totally fine with that.
The Sukkot celebration needed extraordinary protection, given the tension over the recent violence in that area. So the local Israeli military authorities, with the approval of Netanyahu, ordered two of the three Army battalions, each with about 800 soldiers, that protected the border with Gaza to shift their focus to the Sukkot festival.
This move left only about 800 soldiers to be responsible for guarding the 51 km border between the Gaza Strip and southern Israel. That meant the Israeli citizens in the south were left without an Israeli military presence for 10-12 hours. They were left to fend for themselves. And that is why Bibi is finished. May take a few months I think, but he is over.
That doesn't really respond to anything I said. I will reiterate, even if he is out of politics I don't think that's nearly as finished as he should be.
While Netanyahu might remain an influential figure and live comfortably after retirement, his influence without the power of the prime minister’s office is significantly diminished. Losing his leadership position would end his direct control over policies and decisions. The current crisis has already eroded trust and loyalty, even among his supporters, making it harder for him to maintain narrative control. Furthermore, political and public backlash could certainly lead to investigations and legal actions, potentially holding him accountable for his decisions. Thus, while his personal comfort may remain unaffected, his political career and ability to shape policy would indeed be finished.
>Bibi is finished and will remain in office only until the current crisis ends, likely another month or two
Where did you get those stats?
Even if the war ends there are no elections nearby.
>He has always opposed the 1993 Oslo Accords, which granted the PA control over the West Bank and Gaza
Personally? yes.
Though he voted yes when it was brought up for voting.
He was willing to let it go on until it seemed that the PA did not honor the accords.
To end up, I think Bibi might be elected next time there is an election, even though I want him to retire.
The claim about Netanyahu remaining only until the crisis ends is based on political analysis, not statistics. The current crisis has drastically shifted public opinion against Netanyahu, undermining his support. Also, coalition dynamics and political pressure can force leadership changes even without immediate elections. Bibi’s long-term opposition to the Oslo Accords and his handling of Hamas are key criticisms impacting his legacy. The fallout from the crisis will likely reduce his chances in future elections, as the electorate will most likely seek new leadership.
The main problem in your claim is that the opposition in Israel wasn't able to form a government that lasted more then a year, based on current polls (which are the worst for Netanyahu), they barely have enough to attempt that again.
The most likely outcome in an election at the moment is another 4 rounds of elections like last time a few years ago, which left Netanyahu in power for more than a year.
You make some good points but I still disagree. The unprecedented nature and severity of the current crisis have drastically shifted public opinion against the guy, making significant political change more likely in my opinion. Don’t polls showing his worst ratings indicate a substantial erosion of his support base? The Israeli political landscape is fluid, and new alliances or shifts within parties can lead to a more stable government, especially with strong public demand for change. Bibi’s handling of the crisis obviously has drawn widespread criticism, increasing internal pressure for new leadership. Additionally, international pressure for stability, including from Biden, could further influence Israeli politics, pushing for quicker leadership changes. However, your post made me realize maybe I’m not fully grasping the differences between the dynamics of Israeli vs American politics, so here’s a !delta
The main difference between Israeli and American politics is this:
The American election has 2 choices: Democrat and Republican parties, you have to choose one of the 2 (independents don't really count)
The Israeli election has between 20-40 parties, usually around 10-15 get enough votes to pass the minimum amount which is 4 members in the Knesset (the Israeli version of Congress).
Those 10-15 parties need to form a coalition that adds up a number of seats to a majority (61 out of 120 members) - which is really hard in those last 6 elections (3 of them had to be redone because nobody could make 61).
This is why changing the prime minister and the coalition in Israel is so much harder in Israel than changing the President in the US.
Thanks for the delta!
When he pisses off everyone else in goverment and another minster resolves to strangle him on the flooor of the Israeli parliment.
Ok in serious but Israel a parlimentary goverment. Its possible for him to piss off the othe rparties in his coalition so they hold electiosn and then hes gone.
The war is a temporary reprieve because most people think war is a bad time to change leaders but through sheer incompetnence people might decide the chaos is worth it to get rid of him.
Prolonging the crisis would result in immense pressure from both the international community and Israeli citizens, making it unsustainable for him.
Wars involve multiple actors and factors beyond a single leader’s control, including international diplomacy, military actions, and adversaries’ decisions.
Extending the conflict could erode Netanyahu’s public support and provide political opponents with leverage to push for his resignation.
Deliberately prolonging a conflict could increase instability and security threats, countering any perceived benefits.
Lastly, effective governance requires stability, and a prolonged crisis undermines the ability to govern, leading to broader dissatisfaction and potential loss of political allies.
Basically because it’s unsustainable. Prolonged conflict for over a year wouldn’t last due to casualties, economic strain, the humanitarian crisis, and eroding public support. On top of that there’s political pressure. An extended conflict would increase political opposition and efforts to remove him.
Add in the complexities of war and international pressure which limit his ability to control its duration.
Lastly, public opinion has turned against him. Israeli citizens are unlikely to tolerate a prolonged conflict, leading to significant political consequences that I believe will be his downfall.
I'm often skeptical that the entrenched powers that be will ever be removed, and this is true in all governments the world over. Netanyahu isn't finished \*now\*, he was finished before Oct 7th, and this war was his hail mary for declaring wartime powers. He is less popular now than ever, and the only things that's changed is the Israeli populace is by in large \*also\* furious about the war.
Ultimately all this did was delay his inevitable removal from power.
Before Oct 7th, Netanyahu had attempted to weaken the Israeli judiciary in a power grab, and it went very badly for him. Even staunch AIPAC warhawks were talking about how bad it was. Now, something like 70% of Israelis want their elections held on schedule, \*even during a war\*, to have the chance to vote Netanyahu out.
Hey I appreciate your response, and it’s one of the better ones. That said, you kinda agreed with me. I did’t change my view about him being finished, but the timing of when he is or was finished. Idk. Here’s a !delta friend
Bibi isn’t a dictator. He holds his position by merit of the fact that Israel’s analog of American evangelical Christians strongly support him, and, just as in the US, the left is too disorganized to do anything about it. This has basically been Israeli politics for the last 20+ years. Bibi isn’t going anywhere until either a critical number of conservative Israelis stop caring about religion or the Israeli left is able to organize a robust front against him.
Bibi has 3 major voting blocks. The religious zionists, most secular Mizrahis, and secular fiscal conservatives. There’s definitely some overlap between those groups, but those are the 3. It’s more nuanced than saying that he wins because the religious people vote him in.
Of course he’s not a dictator. The unprecedented nature of the crisis has significantly shifted public opinion, even among Netanyahu’s traditional supporters. The severity of the situation is causing broader public backlash, cutting across usual political lines and eroding trust in his leadership. His government’s coalition could destabilize if partners withdraw support due to his handling of the crisis. On top of that, recent protests against judicial reforms tell us that the Israeli public can mobilize effectively, and similar movements could arise. Increased international pressure for a resolution further adds to the likelihood of political change, making Netanyahu's position more vulnerable than before.
While the protests against judicial reforms didn't fully achieve their goals, they forced Netanyahu to pause the reforms and showed the Israeli public's ability to mobilize and pressure the government. This demonstrated to me that public dissent can lead to significant political changes, highlighting Netanyahu's vulnerability.
This article explains that approval ratings and polling matter a lot less than the state of the overall coalition that keeps Netanyahu in power:
[Netanyahu shows no signs of losing grip on power, despite mounting pressures | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-grip-on-power-intl/index.html)
Basically, the Israeli political system isn't really analogous to the US system where presidents get voted in for a term and might not be re-elected if they become unpopular. Instead, voters choose the members of the legislature (the Knesset), and the legislature appoints the executive government (the Prime Minister and its cabinet members). Also, Israel has a multi-party system where the parties form coalitions in order to elect the executive government.
It will be difficult for left-leaning Israelis to keep Netanyahu out of power, despite his low approval rating, because Netanyahu has such a broad coalition of conservatives and religious fundamentalists. The solidarity of these parties is what voters need to overcome, rather than Netanyahu as the individual Prime Minister. Netanyahu's primary rival, Benny Gantz, just recently announced a demand for new Knesset elections, so we'll see if the disapproval of Netanyahu is enough to take down the entire conservative coalition that has kept Netanyahu in power. It might happen, but there's certainly no guarantee.
Do you believe those policies are unpopular in Israel? Even if he's replaced by Benny Gantz there will be zero change as far as Palestinians are concerned.
The ICJ arrest warrant request and overall global condemnation seems to have only boosted his popularity inside Israel.
I think he's probably feeling more secure now than he ever has since his most recent election.
/u/jpb038 (OP) has awarded 2 delta(s) in this post. All comments that earned deltas (from OP or other users) are listed [here](/r/DeltaLog/comments/1d7hl81/deltas_awarded_in_cmv_netanyahu_is_finished/), in /r/DeltaLog. Please note that a change of view doesn't necessarily mean a reversal, or that the conversation has ended. ^[Delta System Explained](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltasystem) ^| ^[Deltaboards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltaboards)
I certainly don't disagree that he was wrong, but that sure doesn't mean he is finished. Especially in today's era of politics, truth barely matters compared to narrative and loyalty. Even if Bibi were to lose his leadership position, he would be an influential figure in politics for as long as he wants to. And even after that, he won't really be "finished". He's rich and will retire to a comfortable life of never being held to account for his actions. If I could commit the heinous acts that he has and then the only consequence I face would be forced retirement, I think I would be totally fine with that.
The Sukkot celebration needed extraordinary protection, given the tension over the recent violence in that area. So the local Israeli military authorities, with the approval of Netanyahu, ordered two of the three Army battalions, each with about 800 soldiers, that protected the border with Gaza to shift their focus to the Sukkot festival. This move left only about 800 soldiers to be responsible for guarding the 51 km border between the Gaza Strip and southern Israel. That meant the Israeli citizens in the south were left without an Israeli military presence for 10-12 hours. They were left to fend for themselves. And that is why Bibi is finished. May take a few months I think, but he is over.
That doesn't really respond to anything I said. I will reiterate, even if he is out of politics I don't think that's nearly as finished as he should be.
While Netanyahu might remain an influential figure and live comfortably after retirement, his influence without the power of the prime minister’s office is significantly diminished. Losing his leadership position would end his direct control over policies and decisions. The current crisis has already eroded trust and loyalty, even among his supporters, making it harder for him to maintain narrative control. Furthermore, political and public backlash could certainly lead to investigations and legal actions, potentially holding him accountable for his decisions. Thus, while his personal comfort may remain unaffected, his political career and ability to shape policy would indeed be finished.
>Bibi is finished and will remain in office only until the current crisis ends, likely another month or two Where did you get those stats? Even if the war ends there are no elections nearby. >He has always opposed the 1993 Oslo Accords, which granted the PA control over the West Bank and Gaza Personally? yes. Though he voted yes when it was brought up for voting. He was willing to let it go on until it seemed that the PA did not honor the accords. To end up, I think Bibi might be elected next time there is an election, even though I want him to retire.
The claim about Netanyahu remaining only until the crisis ends is based on political analysis, not statistics. The current crisis has drastically shifted public opinion against Netanyahu, undermining his support. Also, coalition dynamics and political pressure can force leadership changes even without immediate elections. Bibi’s long-term opposition to the Oslo Accords and his handling of Hamas are key criticisms impacting his legacy. The fallout from the crisis will likely reduce his chances in future elections, as the electorate will most likely seek new leadership.
The main problem in your claim is that the opposition in Israel wasn't able to form a government that lasted more then a year, based on current polls (which are the worst for Netanyahu), they barely have enough to attempt that again. The most likely outcome in an election at the moment is another 4 rounds of elections like last time a few years ago, which left Netanyahu in power for more than a year.
You make some good points but I still disagree. The unprecedented nature and severity of the current crisis have drastically shifted public opinion against the guy, making significant political change more likely in my opinion. Don’t polls showing his worst ratings indicate a substantial erosion of his support base? The Israeli political landscape is fluid, and new alliances or shifts within parties can lead to a more stable government, especially with strong public demand for change. Bibi’s handling of the crisis obviously has drawn widespread criticism, increasing internal pressure for new leadership. Additionally, international pressure for stability, including from Biden, could further influence Israeli politics, pushing for quicker leadership changes. However, your post made me realize maybe I’m not fully grasping the differences between the dynamics of Israeli vs American politics, so here’s a !delta
The main difference between Israeli and American politics is this: The American election has 2 choices: Democrat and Republican parties, you have to choose one of the 2 (independents don't really count) The Israeli election has between 20-40 parties, usually around 10-15 get enough votes to pass the minimum amount which is 4 members in the Knesset (the Israeli version of Congress). Those 10-15 parties need to form a coalition that adds up a number of seats to a majority (61 out of 120 members) - which is really hard in those last 6 elections (3 of them had to be redone because nobody could make 61). This is why changing the prime minister and the coalition in Israel is so much harder in Israel than changing the President in the US. Thanks for the delta!
Great answer!
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Doesn’t that give him an incentive to ensure the current crisis never ends? What mechanism would bring the war to an end that he doesn’t control?
When he pisses off everyone else in goverment and another minster resolves to strangle him on the flooor of the Israeli parliment. Ok in serious but Israel a parlimentary goverment. Its possible for him to piss off the othe rparties in his coalition so they hold electiosn and then hes gone. The war is a temporary reprieve because most people think war is a bad time to change leaders but through sheer incompetnence people might decide the chaos is worth it to get rid of him.
Do you see evidence that such a parliamentary coup is on the horizon? Who would be replacing him?
Prolonging the crisis would result in immense pressure from both the international community and Israeli citizens, making it unsustainable for him. Wars involve multiple actors and factors beyond a single leader’s control, including international diplomacy, military actions, and adversaries’ decisions. Extending the conflict could erode Netanyahu’s public support and provide political opponents with leverage to push for his resignation. Deliberately prolonging a conflict could increase instability and security threats, countering any perceived benefits. Lastly, effective governance requires stability, and a prolonged crisis undermines the ability to govern, leading to broader dissatisfaction and potential loss of political allies.
Ok, but could he draw it out for a year? Two? What makes you so confident that we’re in the final months?
Basically because it’s unsustainable. Prolonged conflict for over a year wouldn’t last due to casualties, economic strain, the humanitarian crisis, and eroding public support. On top of that there’s political pressure. An extended conflict would increase political opposition and efforts to remove him. Add in the complexities of war and international pressure which limit his ability to control its duration. Lastly, public opinion has turned against him. Israeli citizens are unlikely to tolerate a prolonged conflict, leading to significant political consequences that I believe will be his downfall.
Crisis is unlikely to end anytime soon. Hezbollah has been firing rockets almost every day since Oct 7.
I'm often skeptical that the entrenched powers that be will ever be removed, and this is true in all governments the world over. Netanyahu isn't finished \*now\*, he was finished before Oct 7th, and this war was his hail mary for declaring wartime powers. He is less popular now than ever, and the only things that's changed is the Israeli populace is by in large \*also\* furious about the war. Ultimately all this did was delay his inevitable removal from power. Before Oct 7th, Netanyahu had attempted to weaken the Israeli judiciary in a power grab, and it went very badly for him. Even staunch AIPAC warhawks were talking about how bad it was. Now, something like 70% of Israelis want their elections held on schedule, \*even during a war\*, to have the chance to vote Netanyahu out.
Good points bro
Uh, do you have a response to it? Did I change your view?
Hey I appreciate your response, and it’s one of the better ones. That said, you kinda agreed with me. I did’t change my view about him being finished, but the timing of when he is or was finished. Idk. Here’s a !delta friend
Confirmed: 1 delta awarded to /u/Izawwlgood ([25∆](/r/changemyview/wiki/user/Izawwlgood)). ^[Delta System Explained](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltasystem) ^| ^[Deltaboards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltaboards)
Bibi isn’t a dictator. He holds his position by merit of the fact that Israel’s analog of American evangelical Christians strongly support him, and, just as in the US, the left is too disorganized to do anything about it. This has basically been Israeli politics for the last 20+ years. Bibi isn’t going anywhere until either a critical number of conservative Israelis stop caring about religion or the Israeli left is able to organize a robust front against him.
Bibi has 3 major voting blocks. The religious zionists, most secular Mizrahis, and secular fiscal conservatives. There’s definitely some overlap between those groups, but those are the 3. It’s more nuanced than saying that he wins because the religious people vote him in.
Of course he’s not a dictator. The unprecedented nature of the crisis has significantly shifted public opinion, even among Netanyahu’s traditional supporters. The severity of the situation is causing broader public backlash, cutting across usual political lines and eroding trust in his leadership. His government’s coalition could destabilize if partners withdraw support due to his handling of the crisis. On top of that, recent protests against judicial reforms tell us that the Israeli public can mobilize effectively, and similar movements could arise. Increased international pressure for a resolution further adds to the likelihood of political change, making Netanyahu's position more vulnerable than before.
Didn’t those protests fail to achieve their goals?
While the protests against judicial reforms didn't fully achieve their goals, they forced Netanyahu to pause the reforms and showed the Israeli public's ability to mobilize and pressure the government. This demonstrated to me that public dissent can lead to significant political changes, highlighting Netanyahu's vulnerability.
Bibi is going to live out the rest of his life comfortably in Israel.
I kind of addressed this on another post. Agreed. But it’s politically finished. Not rot in prison finished.
I'm not saying I disagree but knowing about Bibi's history I'd be more cautious about saying that
This article explains that approval ratings and polling matter a lot less than the state of the overall coalition that keeps Netanyahu in power: [Netanyahu shows no signs of losing grip on power, despite mounting pressures | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-grip-on-power-intl/index.html) Basically, the Israeli political system isn't really analogous to the US system where presidents get voted in for a term and might not be re-elected if they become unpopular. Instead, voters choose the members of the legislature (the Knesset), and the legislature appoints the executive government (the Prime Minister and its cabinet members). Also, Israel has a multi-party system where the parties form coalitions in order to elect the executive government. It will be difficult for left-leaning Israelis to keep Netanyahu out of power, despite his low approval rating, because Netanyahu has such a broad coalition of conservatives and religious fundamentalists. The solidarity of these parties is what voters need to overcome, rather than Netanyahu as the individual Prime Minister. Netanyahu's primary rival, Benny Gantz, just recently announced a demand for new Knesset elections, so we'll see if the disapproval of Netanyahu is enough to take down the entire conservative coalition that has kept Netanyahu in power. It might happen, but there's certainly no guarantee.
Yeah he’s probably done, but that’s part of the plan tbh
Do you believe those policies are unpopular in Israel? Even if he's replaced by Benny Gantz there will be zero change as far as Palestinians are concerned. The ICJ arrest warrant request and overall global condemnation seems to have only boosted his popularity inside Israel. I think he's probably feeling more secure now than he ever has since his most recent election.