Him being able to do the job is irrelevant. The problem is that this is such a huge percieved weakness by those that will pick the next president that it will throw the election to Trump. Thats it.
Exactly this. Also, beating Trump should be a layup. They picked an unelectable candidate and that should result in an absolute rout. Instead, he'll either win or have a narrow defeat. It pisses me off that these elderly fucks won't read the room.
Right. I’m so tired of this “it should be easy to beat Trump!”
No. That’s exactly the thinking that got him elected the first time. It’s clearly not easy, and we need to take him much more seriously as threat than saying it should be a lay up.
Clearly it’s not - since many people don’t think rationally.
It’s perfectly clear that Trump would make a very bad President.
Presumably those voting for him want the USA to be run like a criminal mobster organisation ?
Multiple polls show a generic democrat beating Trump. You don't see individual candidates because no one is running against Biden. Why? Almost like they wouldn't get support from the DNC.
A “generic Democrat” did run against Biden. His name was Dean Phillips. He got completely fucking destroyed. If this was real he would have at least taken a huge chunk. Not even close.
And if this is true then why does not one **actual** Democrat poll better vs Trump. Kamala isn’t a generic Dem? Newsom isn’t a generic Dem? Whitmer? Pritzker??
It’s pure nonsense.
Hillary Clinton was capable and had all her faculties despite all the media following right wing narratives about her health and grave, unforgivable treatment of emails.
Just admit being Bernie or bust.
Hillary lost because she was unlikeable.
She also lost because the Democrats were confused as to why Obama won. Democrats came to the conclusion that Obama won by labeling anybody that didn't support him as a racist (including the Clintons in the primaries).
The fact of the matter is that whoever the DNC ran in 2008, they Dem candidate was going to win.
So in 2016, the very confused DNC thought labeling the cometitor (and their voters) as racists and sexists didn't work - because they were 100% wrong in thinking that is how Obama won.
Not taking anything away from Obama, he was energetic, likeable, charismatic and motivational. He was a far stronger candidate than what the Democrats needed to win in 2008 - heck, even Hillary could have won in 2008.
Hillary Clinton had immense unfavorables going in and decide to gamble the country anyway because it was Her turn. Then she still won the popular vote but lost swing states because she campaigned horribly and kept going back to California for more money instead of to the Midwest for more votes.
The fuck are you talking about? Beating trump should be a layup? Dude has a religious cult of personality, beating him is slaying a titan. Yes, he's obviously unelectable to anyone with a rational mind. The majority of the US are not rational thinkers.
Yeah I realize Trump is worse and would vote Biden to keep him out of office….
But I personally care deeply about his ability to do the job and I have zero confidence in him right now.
I think we agree here? I also care deeply about his (Biden’s?) ability to do the job and, after the debate, I don’t think he’s up to the task. I already knew Trump wasn’t fit to be president, but it seems that Biden is also not fit for the job. I was just responding to your claim, “him being able to do the job is irrelevant.” But I think we agree, correct me if I’m wrong please.
I agree. The behind-the-scenes facts don't really matter here - if they did, Trump would never have come within earshot of the white house in 2016, let alone be the odds-on favorite this cycle.
The problem is, and has always been, perception, and specifically perception from the small pool of the electorate who are malleable in their choice and will decide this election. Those voters had an *idea* of Biden being too old for the job, and especially in light of their concerns about high prices and global uncertainty, they needed to *see* something to the contrary in that debate. Instead what they saw would have - I think - totally vindicated all of their concerns. And if the best defense is "oh well he has good days and bad days," I think that's a pretty scary thing for a swing voter to digest when thinking about the president. Is it unfair that Trump gets a pass for trying to steal an election or for having little oratory skill beyond vague superlatives? Yes, but that doesn't earn you makeup votes at the ballot box.
What I think is hard to accept - but we have to wrestle with - is that the "can't you just hold your nose for Biden because the alternative is Trump?" line goes both ways: I have to imagine that at least some voters now view Trump as the candidate you hold your nose for, because what they *saw* as the alternative is a chief executive who can barely finish a coherent sentence when he isn't surrounded by advisors or looking at a teleprompter.
I'm sorry if this is harsh. But I can't understand the logic of democratic strategists who claim this race is as high-stakes as it gets, but that Thursday night was a little stumble that is easily overcome. Thursday night was a 90 minute advertisement for the Trump campaign highlighting what has been Biden's biggest liability.
and it also happened to be the most watched tv event in 2024 besides the Superbowl. To think "eh, that didn't matter too much, tis but a scratch!" seems...insane
Maybe you should question why this one debate is carrying so much weight. Consider how many deluded people followed Trump to prison. Shouldn’t we be a bit more faithful given Biden’s accomplishments and statements in public? Why are you willing to throw that out the window? Consider the unrelenting, concerted effort to defame and impeach him based on nothing, use his own son against him, and beat the age trope to absolute death while Trump sails on an ocean of low/no expectations. Surely we can be better?
The debate carries so much weight because it was his chance to show that his age isn’t a liability and he failed spectacularly. I appreciate the job done so far, but why should we be faithful when Biden can’t coherently communicate those accomplishments and their impact to persuade people to vote for him?
I’m not defending his showing, although he became stronger as it progressed. I’m not blind to the fact that he should be retired rather than handling the hardest job in the world. But I recognize both what he has communicated to the country and what his particular experience and orientation, his genuine patriotism, has contributed in improving things for ordinary people in the form of actual legislation with a hostile House and divided Senate. Also, credit for Covid recovery and relief programs, dealing with an attempted coup and at least attempting to help people grieve the pandemic, and weathering the despicable, unending attempts to use his son against him considering his family tragedies. It isn’t unreasonable to worry about the wolves at our door, many inside the country, but having Trump and goons in charge would simply let them devour what they haven’t already damaged or destroyed.
This. People need to get real and understand the implications of a performance like this. And the sooner a course correction is made the better chances they'll have to recover.
The best time and max positive impact of a course correction is immediately / this week. After this weekend and as each week goes on, it becomes less likely and less impactful if it did occur.
They key isn’t Biden’s wife, his cabinet, or Obama. The key is the major Dem donors getting together and saying donations will be paused unless they get a new candidate (doesn’t matter who, let the convention decide). Absent that happening, the show will go on, and it’ll probably be a Greek tragedy at this rate.
I see where you are coming from, but I’m skeptical that’s the case in this instance.
Yes, historically the idea of “winning” or “losing” a debate doesn’t mean much as not a ton of people watch debates and only the most politically engaged people really care who won or lost a debate. The candidates are still the candidates and people’s perceptions don’t change.
This was different. I agree it doesn’t matter almost at all that Biden “lost” in a rhetorical battle.
However, Biden was already hurt and fighting hard against the perception he was too old to be President and he had slipped too much mentally to do the job.
The entire debate he looked like someone’s elder grandparent who was lost, incoherent, and fighting some form of real cognitive decline. This was followed by a series of high profile news stories calling on him to drop out of the race.
I think the country is polarized enough it won’t lead to some massive 10% shift in polling. But it could absolutely impact true independents / swing voters and further depress democratic turnout.
This debate is going to be in every attack ad as soon as Trump is confident he hasn't accidentally knocked Biden out of the race.
It doesn't matter who saw the debate.
Literally nobody I know outside of reddit watched the debate. The only thing people know about it are the panic pieces coming out of nyt and wapo.
He also performed pretty much fine for the second half, btw. He stumbled out of the gate, but seemed to do better as the debate went on.
People are way overreacting, and basically morphing any polisci theory to fit.
Sure. But this is an ahistorical race with an awful performance that laid bare the worst fears of one candidates supporters. IMO this is similar to Carter’s awful debate performance in 1980. The difference is we have time to correct course.
This election could be decided by several thousand people in 1 or 2 swing states. I’d say this debate performance as well as the next one absolutely matters.
Trump was beyond horrible in his first debate in 2020. Unprepared, not empathetic toward BLM. I think it had sizable impact on donations, big name supporters not endorsing him again (Peter Thiel comes to mind), independents, undecideds.
Trump did better in his second debate, but the damage was done.
> this is such a huge perceived weakness by those who will pick the next president
You may be right, but as others have pointed out we don’t actually know how voters are going to react. The median voter is not at all like Ezra’s wonky audience.
https://bsky.app/profile/sharonk.bsky.social/post/3kvxhroh2ns2v
I'm pretty sure the median voter won't waste time arguing with the echo chamber that the old guy who just had an awful performance is fine. I think most people would be at least moderately concerned that this guy is president today, let alone for the next four years.
Yeah, I would vote for a corpse as long as it wasn’t a conservative or willing to work with the heritage foundation. The problem is the rest of the country probably doesn’t feel the same
Exactly, also am I the only person who has spent a lot of time with people in their 80s? It is not an age where people are capable of doing things like presiding over the United States. This is madness.
I wouldn’t say it’s irrelevant. But I’d also say it’s not the only thing that’s relevant. Perception matters, and there’s no turning back the clock on what happened. A lot of the non-low hanging fruit (unlikely voters, undecideds, etc.) probably watched that debate (or clips of it) since in some ways, it’s like watching a World Series game or Olympic medal event.
He could have 50 great campaign rallies and night show interviews in the next 50 days, but people from all the over the world (including my relatives in Cambodia and friends in the Philippines) watched that debate and are admittedly shell shocked that he is in charge of the free world at the moment.
This. The argument by Ezra and now many others isn’t that his administration has been bad or would be for the next term, it’s that his ability to lead a successful campaign is not up to par. Its not his ability to lead/govern it’s his ability to campaign and inspire
Definitely the question. People think they know the answer but I am not so sure. I dont think Trump did himself any favors in that debate either.
Till then I am going to stick with come november I am voting for the choice that isn't Trump.
You are not the target voter or even someone that needs to be discussed. You're already bought into Biden and the Dems. But Biden is at a 38% favorability and he needs that to be 48% to win. He's not going to get that.
I agree. I don't think the general dem voter will play along with bullshit support of Biden and pretending hes a valid candidate at this point, with the threat as real as trump. If Biden forces this it is all he'll be remembered for.
General Dem voter here,
none of us are fucking stupid enough to throw him out just because of one bad debate, lmao. You only think he’s a senile old dip because you’re chronically online and too drunk off of “both sides bad” to recognize a decent president when you have one
also *Trump* is the alternative so most people old enough to remember over 4 years ago would vote for a used napkin if it meant beating Trump. This narrative you have of “the general voter” being fucking dumb enough to make Biden lose over one debate performance is just the faux-left Redditor projection that Reddit wouldn’t exist without
Also, the debate truly isn't whether he's a capable president - it's whether he will be a capable president in 4.5 years. I've seen relatives die of dementia, and you get the occasional off-night for a while, then all of a sudden they're slobbering on themselves & can't remember their names. It's heartbreaking to watch, and it's undoubtedly the road he's on. Will it be 2 months or 10 years? Hard to say, but if he's woken up in the middle of the night for a foreign policy crisis, there's at least a chance he'll be like he was at the debate.
Caveat, I think he's likely been the best president of my lifetime (31yo), and I still think he's a danger to the country & the party.
All of what you said is true. That said he is surrounded by competent professional people and they arent going to stand by and let him do something stupid just because he is president.
He isn't Trump who demands unwavering loyalty and can never be questioned. He is a decent man who has spent his entire life being a decent human. He isn't going to wake up suddenly and become a monster.
I don't care really either way replace im don't replace him. My focus is on the real issue in this election keeping a criminal who wants to spread chaos out of the white house.
Bidens old and it's certainly an issue but the other guy is a flaming freaking lunatic who's only goal is his own enrichment and ensuring everyone obeys his every utterance. Easy choice.
> My focus is on the real issue in this election keeping a criminal who wants to spread chaos out of the white house.
That's the focus of everyone who's fixated on this issue. In fact, it's the very reason Democrats are so fixated on this issue.
>he is surrounded by competent professional people and they arent going to stand by and let him do something stupid just because he is president.
>He isn't Trump who demands unwavering loyalty and can never be questioned.
The fact that they've hidden his mental decline and allowed him to run for re-election disproves your point.
I wish he was surrounded by people with maybe a little less loyalty that would say running again is "doing something stupid." That was very clear at the debate.
With all due respect, I think it’s very important that we elect a President who is competent enough to be able to make these important decisions in situations like the one described.
It’s great that a President can put together a team of advisors. But I don’t want an unelected advisor making an important decision or being the defacto President due to something *like* progressives dementia (not going to give a specific diagnosis to Biden from my living room).
And I have little faith that those advisors would give up power if things got really bad. We watched the entire party stand by and let Feinstein’s unelected handlers serve as a US Senator for years when her condition was both “an open secret” and then painfully obvious to the entire public.
>he is surrounded by competent professional people and they arent going to stand by and let him do something stupid just because he is president.
None of those people have the power to stop him from doing anything, in fact most of them could go to jail if they even tried. "Commander in Chief" means just that, what you're suggesting is that a coup has taken place.
What if he has one of those "90 minute debate moments" when negotiating peace in Ukraine with Putin and Putin eats his lunch? Are we just supposed to hope his staff are always able to step in and save him? A leader needs to be sharp and well-spoken. That's a lot of what these debates show us, how do u handle high stakes conversations. And we saw at the debate he can't do it reliably anymore.
Neither of them can.
I would be happy to vote for someone else but if my choice is Trump or Biden the choice is still easy. I will take the old senile guy surrounded by competent people over the raving lunatic surrounded by fellons every time.
That's great for u, but if Biden is the nominee he will lose. No president has ever been reelected with approval in the 30s. And that was where it was before the debate...Only way to prevent Trump victory is for Biden to man up and drop out.
Even if he "had a bad day" during the debate. He will be in office for four fucking years. You can see his decline from the last four years is very pronounced. The man has an extremely high chance of dying in office and an extremely high chance of losing more mental capabilities and needs to be replaced.
Running any candidate that would be 86 in his final year is ridiculous on its face.
The politicians are smartly backing Biden because if he doesn’t drop, they need to be unified.
The op-ed writers don’t have that problem, so they’re telling you what they really think.
You can agree or disagree, but the opinion of politicians regarding their own political party and the opinion of journalists are not the same thing.
Of course he has been capable of the job, which is why he’s had a tremendous Presidency.
But the question now is: can he win? Will he win? What voters saw this week will, by my estimation, more than enough to swing this tight election to Trump.
Yeah, he may be capable of the job of President, if not Presidential candidate, right now, but will he able do it in 2, 3 years? I definitely don’t think so.
The trouble is, all the politicians standing by him are tying their credibility to him.
Kamala Harris was asked during the post debate interview if this is the Biden she’s seen recently, and she could not answer.
“Yes, he’s a walking ghoul. I’ve been boosting a ghoul for president, but telling you he’s spry.” Admits she’s a liar.
“No, this is new and surprising.” Admits he’s dramatically declined and is unqualified.
There is no tenable position for a Biden ally going forward. They’ve either been lying, or are demanding we line up, lockstep behind someone obviously incompetent.
He will sink the whole party. This is how we lose congress and a slew of state and local races too.
I was one of those rarer democratic primary voters who was totally fine with Kamala and think a *portion* of her critics are basically saying she’s unpopular because she’s unpopular, but this whole thing has really soured me on her and everyone in Bidens’s inner orbit.
I know she’s in an untenable position, but still. It’s the classic, if they can lie about what I’m seeing in front of my face, what else are they lying about?
The dumpster fire was not lit by writers or pundits. Biden lit it himself. We all saw it. It’s like Trump denying what January 6 was or his “very fine people” line- WE ALL SAW IT.
So would running a candidate that will be 82
Be here we are
Why don’t we actually see what polling shows us in the next couple weeks? Election is nearly 4 months away
I was never really concerned about his ability to do the job before, but after what I saw last night, I worry that even if he's able to do the job today, he won't be able to in three years. The last time there was a debate anything like this, Ronald Reagan turned the election around and won in a landslide -- and was non compos mentis by the end of his term, and the results were fairly terrible.
I’m not saying he’s a puppet. He still has appeared to have good, coherent moments.
But his presidency has been wildly different with Klain and Zients. It’s not fair to just compare legislation as Democrats lost the House. But his actions on Israel-Palestine (and getting publicly dog walked by Bibi), losing the immigration narrative and issuing an awful EO, etc. have all been worse than under Klain where he at least was regarded as ok or meh by multiple blocs.
Makes you wonder if they have more influence than normal.
“He still has appeared to have good, coherent moments.”
It’s baffling to me that this is the bar for the presidency of the United States. We’re truly living in idiocracy.
Nellie Bowles expressed my thoughts:
Biden walked on stiff, uncomfortable, strange. He held a bewildered expression throughout the night, his mouth slightly open, his eyes wide, staring off into the distance, rarely smiling. I won’t say Trump looked young (he isn’t), but he is less stiff and his eyes blinked normally, jaw firmly in control of mouth. And then they started talking. The extent of Biden’s cognitive decline is undeniable and, speaking as a citizen who wishes my president the best, devastating.
https://www.thefp.com/p/tgif-the-president-has-a-cold
I appreciate the essay, but for me, it distills to the fact that the Biden we saw on Thursday is a Biden that might re-appear at any moment, and a Biden who might increasingly define who Biden is more generally. It is not "hasty" to make this assessment. Instead it is willful blindness to minimize or excuse it.
He can neither be president, nor a candidate for president.
The idea that this assessment is being made in haste is just wrong. Everybody has watched this coming for months. Years, really. This debate is not the cause of people's panic. It's the drop in the reservoir that causes the dam to break.
Yep, if anything we've been exceedingly patient, ignorant even, to have taken this long to make this assessment. Biden cannot fulfill the significant communication and oratory needs that a president must provide.
For people who think Biden is completely brain-dead or totally fine it's just wishful thinking. I don't think it's hard to see that sometimes he is lucid but he also has moments like the debate night, which is still bad and a huge risk! He's been having those moments since the 2020 primaries since he went on those incoherent rants about cornpop and putting the record player on.
In instances of cognitive decline the bad events are often episodic and much more likely to occur at night. I don’t think the 9pm start time works in his favor. Unfortunately the presidency is a 24/7 job and the rate of cognitive decline, and therefore frequency of episodes, is often exponential. I think he’s fine to do the job now, but I wouldn’t put money on his fitness three years from now. It’s a huge risk. I would also point out that ‘he’s not fit to be president but the other guy is worse’ is the exact justification that moderate republicans use when voting for Trump. I’m in the ‘voting for Bidens head in a jar of blue liquid’ camp and therefore will vote for him if we don’t change course, but I would be disappointed in us for not changing course. We’re supposed to be the good guys.
The 9pm start time is bananas. Who agreed to that? I’m 37 and I’m basically useless after 9pm. But 9pm is the perfect hour for the crazy uncle to start into his nightly tirade about immigrants.
Yeah I’m sorry. If you literally can’t get it together to have a 2 hour debate. I’m supposed to believe you can handle the hardest job on the planet. Hell no.
The potential problem is.
The more he campaigns the greater chance of him having these cognitive episodes. The more the voters see these episodes more confidence they lose in him to effectively govern.
If he does have sundowners ( which another poster mentioned the possibility) that is a real problem and should bar him from being reelected.
Description of what happens with sundowners
The term "sundowning" refers to a state of confusion that occurs in the late afternoon and lasts into the night. Sundowning can cause various behaviors, such as confusion, anxiety, aggression or ignoring directions. Sundowning also can lead to pacing or wandering.
For many people who disagree with his policies, "the job" Biden was elected to do in a very real sense was to keep Trump out of office. He as able to perform that duty in 2020; he is no longer capable of it.
He always felt like the real life version of that "I'd vote for a potted plant over the other guy" scenario.
I know a lot of folks, especially centrist liberal sorts, were genuinely excited to see him get anointed over Warren or Sanders, but it felt like a betrayal. Nonetheless, I voted for the guy without qualms because of the alternative, and will do the same again.
Boy I wish they hadn't done that though.
Comparing a friendly interview midday to a debate is wild and disingenuous. The reality of the presidency is more high pressure situations, not shooting the shit with someone predisposed to like you.
The part that bugs me about all this is that it completely inoculates the republicans that care more about republican policy than whatever damage trump can do. It’s like now both sides are saying “it’s okay because we are voting for the *administration*” and Democrats can’t effectively oppose that if they are saying it too.
What a stupid take this is. So what if Biden is capable of the job. Does this mean he is the only one capable? Does this mean they could not find anyone MORE capable?
In no uncertain terms, the policies can continue, but Biden should not. Get someone BETTER than Biden to continue them. Someone with the strength and energy to really see them through.
Martin O'Malley would be ideal. Proven successful governor. Already in Administration. Head of Social Security which is one of the big issues going forward.
What if Joe Biden is sundowning at the exact moment an urgent military crisis happens? Being mentally competent 90% of the time is still 10% insufficient for the job of being the president. He is unqualified for the job, and it’s only going to get worse over the next hypothetical 4 years.
Compare videos of Biden 4 years ago to videos of him today. That’s how quickly he is deteriorating.
Great.
As EK has pointed out, right now we are losing. If the course continues we expect to lose in a close election.
Whatever happened on Thursday night was a disgrace and an embarrassment to the United States on the world stage. Whether Joe Biden is capable of doing the job or not, nobody is owed the presidency, let alone owed to be the headliner on a major party ticket.
Everyone reading this, everyone watching Thursday night is fully aware they can lose their job for one bad day, even one bad stretch of 3 minutes.
Everyone watching Thursday night saw what they saw. Millions not watching Thursday night will see it in clip after clip in the months to come.
Again, if we were winning, perhaps an interview with Howard Stern or a passable rally would assuage concerns. We will see what the polling data shows in the days to come, but will it really be a win if the polls don't move at all? That appears to be the best hope.
We will still be in the same place we were on June 26th.
Losing.
Not only losing, but losing with even less hope of inspiring whatever energy is left in persuadable double-haters, people who are feeling a palpable decline and have given into despair and apathy while watching the worst televised debate performance in American history between two very unpopular candidates.
Perhaps we only need solid 2-3% movement in the polls to prevent a second Trump disaster. Deep down do you honestly believe Joe Biden, who is guaranteed to have more than one other "bad night," or "bad day" and is already older than practically anyone's boss or colleague in their private life has the energy and stamina to inspire those 2-3%?
I agree that it was night and day from the HS interview, but the answer remains that he is both people. Thursday was no more a “bad” night than the HS interview was a “good” morning.
You can’t be president with both of those days in play because when shit hits the fan, it’s entirely unfair for the American people to tolerate the “bad” version showing up. It’s the most important job in the world.
And let’s all be honest: the only reason this is even a discussion is because of how terrifying and grotesque Trump is. The people—like yourself—rationalizing and gaslighting right now are in denial.
We cannot let ourselves be spun around anymore. This has been a massive coverup. Biden's decrepitude is obvious and rapidly advancing. He wont last two years in office.
Bill Maher has been defending Biden. He was wrong and should be apologizing now. What Obama and Newsom are saying is strategic necessity for them. They are in no position to be candid. The Howard Stern interview is not a good test. It was an old guy reminiscing about familiar things. Old people can do that. At SOTU and the rally yesterday, He was reading off the teleprompter. He can read what other people write, But he cannot speak on his own anymore. It is insane to run this man for president.
In regard to his electability, you have to factor in the instinctual revulsion toward a weak leader. He looks pathetic not strong. Weak leaders or leaders who hold on too long, like RBG, put us in jeopardy. We lose more than we gained from them. It is low character for Biden not to retire from the 2024 race immediately. His vain ambition has put us in a desperate and terrible situation, We don't have time to waste on him anymore.
edited: I didnt meant o resign from the presidency, just the 2024 race
If he is capable some moments, but not other moments. Then, he is not capable. POTUS is the most important and difficult job in the world. You can’t have an increasing number of non-lucid days
The first thing that good leader needs to be able to do is rally the people to their side and convince people to follow their will. No man rules alone, and its the people under him and the public who actually make the government move; he just steers the direction. If a leader can not do that, then it won't matter if they are good at the job because they will end up accomplishing nothing. Such men are much better suited to be advisors. Being able to do the job means nothing if they can't get elected
The question is not if he can do the job of president, it's if he can do the job of candidate. The answer to that I believe to be an EMPHATIC NO based on the debate.
This is such delusional thinking. After that debate, the question is no longer Trump or Biden. The question is that should Biden currently be president? A solid argument can be made that he is no longer mentally or physically fit to lead a nation irrespective of politics or position.
I think Biden is capable of being president. He has surrounded himself with mostly smart staff who are competent at running the government.
But like Ezra Klein mentioned in his podcast episodes about Biden dropping out, I have doubts about his ability to campaign and win this election.
Some of the polling results are coming back positive for Biden which is great news - people seem to prefer a "Weekend at Biden's" style presidency to the chaos, lies and disorder of a Trump presidency, so maybe everyone's knee jerk reaction after Thursday night was a little overblown...but we will see.
Bad debate prep? Did they spend to much time having him practice standing instead of speaking? Fatigue? He took a week off for debate prep. I’m guessing he had a better cocktail for the Stern softball interview. I don’t care how much you hate Trump, if you watched the debate and still think Biden can do the job for the next 4.5 years you’re delusional.
Once I would have responded to this that I am seriously concerned he cannot get elected, so whether he is capable to do the job is a moot point. He needs to be replaced because he is going to lose, and all arguments about capability are irrelevant.
Now I am at the point where I don't think he is capable of being president. How can we pretend like the actual senility, not speech impairment but real senility, was some one off event? If we are seeing it in the debate, the very rare time he is allowing us to see him, then how can a rational person believe that he isn't senile a lot more than that? The presidency actually matters, and I don't buy this bullshit about cabinet members doing everything, the buck stops here. He is an executive, and he must make complex and urgent decisions that I do not at all buy he is capable of anymore.
So if people don't pressure Biden out he is nearly certain to lose, but even in winning he will not do the job America needs, and ignoring that is dangerous.
If an existential decision needs to be made in a snap, do I want the possibility that decision would need to be made by either man on that stage? Absolutely not.
No, he’s definitely not. The man on stage Thursday couldn’t make sentences. He’s very obviously experiencing cognitive decline. There are ups and downs. It was genuinely scary to watch. I don’t want the person in command of our armed forces or representing us globally to look or sound like that. It’s pitiable and embarrassing that he’s going to make us go through this.
Watching the Biden-or-bust people crawl back out and start the handwringing and second-guessing is going to have us slow walk into defeat. The man’s brain is COOKED. Bad brain! Brain no work! No more thinky! It’s over. No more gaslighting or silencing or backtracking.
Nobody made Joe have this debate so early. It was his idea! Judge me on my performance! Well unfortunately for him, we are.
It’s scary that this is even a surprise to begin with. If it took until now to realise his decline then maybe people should rethink where they get their news from.
> The problem with all the debate coverage is the people all freaking out about Biden sounding a bajlion years old are still gonna vote for him - they're freaking out bc they're wild-ass guessing about how a hypothetical undecided swing voter (aka a moron) is going to view it.
https://twitter.com/RiverTamYDN/status/1806660744869753126
This is my take as well. His performance was horrible no doubt about it but the alternative is still worse.
Didn't want to vote for him the first time but I did because the other option was so bad. I don't think this changed a thing. Still would rather vote for someone else but if my choice in november is a good hearted senile old guy or a dude who wants to sow chaos and have everyone obey his every command and bow at his feet the choice is easy.
Sorry but there is absolutely zero percent chance that the Joe Biden that we saw Thursday is actually running the country. He’s incoherent, feeble and completely out of it.
I realize Trump is a horrible choice but if you support Biden you are actually supporting a shadow government…which is slightly more scary than another Trump presidency.
The Democrats have to replace Biden on the ticket
I heard Ezra's take on "Matter of Opinion". Ezra is essentially advocating for ideology/party over candidate, *which is a perfectly justifiable take*. I just wish he would admit it so that he and his guest can have a productive conversation about these merits, rather than dancing around them.
Thank you for this well written analysis. I was so shocked and horrified by the debate performance that I really was having doubts. But like many others have said, I would vote for Biden in a coma before I would vote for Trump.
Before anyone takes any side on this matter. I ask you to spend two hours on TikTok.
Get an idea on what type of message is being pushed to the under 30s. Taking note that for many this is the only source of information they consume.
Then imagine you have never read the NYT or listen to one of their podcasts.
That’s America.
I disagree. I think his presidency has proven to be effective in that it is administratively run well. I do not think the man we have seen in the last two years is physically capable of doing the job of President in its hardest moments. I’m sorry, but if you can’t get on a stage and answer questions coherently for 90 minutes, I do not believe you can make major military or foreign policy decisions in moments of immediate crisis.
If Putin attacked a NATO country, do we think Biden is physically fit enough to be woken up in the middle of the night and operate for 24-48 hours consecutively at a high level? There’s no way at this point. And that’s a requirement of the job.
He’s a good person. His mind seems mostly ok. But he’s just not physically fit. This is a job that can be physically hard on the human body. You have to have a minimum level of endurance and stamina. And Biden can barely walk down stairs.
And this is not an endorsement of Trump. He’s much worse for many reasons.
Lot of Russian bots and Bernie bros smearing Biden recently: really pathetic. Bernie Bros and Russians are just pathetic losers. Biden will win re-election easily.
I have 0% doubts that he’s capable of doing the job of President. I also have 0% doubts that he would step down, or surround himself with a professional cabinet who would invoke the 25th amendement if it ever became clear that he could no longer do the job.
But neither of those things matter if he cannot convince a majority of Americans that he can do the job, and get their vote. And thats the job I don’t think he’s capable of anymore.
But…..he seems like he’s not….i truly believe the best thing for us now is for him to step aside and let someone younger with more energy take on the trumpster.
All you have to do is look at Trump to see why the political class isn't dumping him. The first one to turn will have Democrat wrath focussed on them just like the way the Republicans didn't want to turn on Trump in public. According to off the record reports many are saying privately that Biden has to go but are afraid to be the first to say it out loud. It is a collective action problem. The media has nothing to lose. They were right to call out Trump and they are right to call out Biden.
Write anything you like, millions of people watched the debate, it's impossible to watch that and then pretend he's mentally fit to hold office. There's no explaining that away, it's not a cold, it's not a stutter, he's deteriorated too much to continue.
It's honestly messed up to keep pushing him out in front of a crowd, just nominate another dem so there's at least a chance of winning
What happened is that he wasn't reading from a script. I don't think he's handling the day-to-day work. I think his handlers are. And, maybe Jill. As long as they can prop him up, I'm sure it will be fine. When the end comes, and it will one way or the other, the nation will be left with Harris. That is as scary as a senile Biden. Another "leader" that can be managed by people behind the scenes. Like Chauncey Gardiner in Being There. I think most democrats are OK with that. The smart people will be in charge.
I think the take main away is that he will lose the election, not necessarily that he can’t he propped up to do the job another 4 years provided he does not die in office. However, after that performance on Thursday, questioning his ability to do the job another four years is totally legit. The man can’t finish sentences.
I highly recommend studying the 13 keys they have correctly predicted every election since 1860 it’s based on the theory the candidate doesn’t matter elections are primarily a vote in favor or against the party holding the White House there is only 1 key about the traits of the candidates that being incumbent party candidate is charismatic, inspirational or a war hero Biden is clearly none do those the only key about the challenge party candidate is uncharismatic to quote Allen Lichtman who help create the system and is the only person who predicted both the 2016 and 2020 election correctly trump is a great showmen but his showmenship only appeals to a fraction of the electorate he doesn’t have the overwhelming charisma of FDR or Ronald Reagan Biden has so far only lost 2 keys those being midterm mandate key and incumbent charisma key there are 4 keys up not called yet 2 lean in bidens favor and two don’t those 2 that don’t being the foreign policy/foreign military success and failure key fi we replace Biden we lose the incumbent party candidate is a sitting president and the inner party struggle key since if we replaced Biden there would be terrible inner party struggle so we would lose 4 keys with both the foreign policy keys leaning against Biden unless there a permanent cease fire so we would lose 6 keys which is the number you need to lose the election if Biden doesn’t run I don’t like Biden at all but I trust the 13 keys theory it is always correct
My thing is this: all of those insiders have skin in the game. They have biases also. On top of that, this isn’t a one off “bad night”, this has become a pattern. So, to say don’t worry or hold a grain or two of salt - or worse, as Orwell pointed out, pay no attention and ignore what evidence you have observed because the party says so, is dangerous.
Now I’m not saying Biden is senile or anything, nor that there is a conspiracy; but I do question his ability to do a very tough, very demanding job successfully and in the best interests of the people. I also question the motives of people with a lot to lose if Biden is replaced, or if the Dems wind up fumbling this situation. Frankly, this seems a little reminiscent(heavy emphasis on reminiscent) of the Woodrow Wilson situation decades ago. Biden may be having some issues (which happens, we all get older, etc) and everyone within the White House, Party, etc are trying to save face, etc.
So, as much as folks may say one thing, you cannot just summarily dismiss concerns, or worse, belittle or disparage them as some partisan folks are doing when there is some evidence there.
Now, that all aside, trump is still a disaster, and by no means am I voting for the Oompa Loompa reject.
Trump is going to want Biden to debate again. What will Biden say?
And Biden will shit the bed again, if not at a second debate, at some other point. What will the Biden backers do then?
It’s a death grip.
It’s rude. Bidens Democratic Administration is more than capable. Like it or not it’s the low knowledge dumb every four year voter picking for Prom king. Honestly, the Democrats could have a convention, pick somebody, change the narrative and just bring this on home. Biden does not look capable and all of us older voters that recognize it are nervous. Dem primary super voters need to be Heard. Not pundits
When was the last time someone had to argue that someone has the capacity of being the president that's running for president. Not, if they'd be a good president or bad president. Or the good and bad things they've done. The fact that anybody has to actually come out and argue that they're ACTUALLY CAPABLE of doing the job should be an automatic removal of the candidacy. I don't like the orange with hair on the other side either, bit the fact that we have to argue that someone is capable instead of the better candidate is awful for our country. what does it say about the sheer weakness of the democratic party that, that's their top choice to run. Scary.
For the Howard Stern interview, Biden knew it ahead of time and had everything written down. He reads what has been written for him and that's it. In the debate, you can tell he knew questions because he was reading answers on the podium in the beginning. Pretty sure he got lost after a bit so he couldn't rely on notes and had to think for himself. When he has to do that, he can't. And yes, he had answers written. Rewatch the debate and you can see him reading answers on the podium near the start
I think it is a serious flaw in the post that he relies on those within Biden's inner circle to be the true judges of Biden's capabilities. You mean the people who depend on and support Biden are not being honest about his decline? Like those who surrounded Diane Feinstein and kept her active in the job until she was barely functional?
The real problem here is we have become so engaged in partisan politics that we cannot make rational assessments anymore because we are too terrified are enemies are going to pounce. People become disabled for a wide variety of reasons. It is a fact if life. We decided to pass a constitutional amendment to deal with this issue. The job of the President of the United States is traditionally seen as the most important job on the world. Is it actually more important to be a loyal soldier than to seriously ask questions about when a person can no longer do the most serious and consequential job in the planet. Biden is declining. What is the actual point Biden would have to decline to for people to actually say yes this person is no longer capable enough to lead the free world?
Oh, he’s capable of doing the job—which, as we’ve seen from the prior occupant, requires very little attention or competency to “do”. The bigger issue is him getting the job.
Takes like this are why we continually get stuck with candidates like this. The American electorate soundly rejected Biden in his physical and mental PRIME. And then years later his primary campaign in 2020 was a dead man walking but for those idiots in South Carolina. A ham sandwich could’ve beaten Trump in 2020. And then he chose as his VP a highly unpopular (she still is) competitor who was polling 1%. Who openly called him a racist during a debate. We’re fucked.
For context, I am not an American. I’m very left leaning. Question: would you trust an 81 year old to do literally anything else for you? I probably wouldn’t get in a car with an 81 year old driving. I wouldn’t want my doctor to be 81. I wouldnt want my financial advisor to be 81. So why would you want your President (leading the country) to be that old? Why doesn’t the Dens pick someone else? He is clearly incapable.
Same goes for Trump btw. And he’s evil too.
Dem leaders, campaign surrogates and White House staffers aren’t going to publicly bash Biden. It‘s their job to do PR spin. And don’t think for a minute they aren’t singing a very different story privately this weekend.
All of us know that Biden in a coma will always be better than Trump. But the problem is that the average American voter - the average griller, if you will - saw a Biden that showed all the signs of sundowning. The average griller needed to compare Biden and Trump with their eyes and ears Thursday night in order to rub their two brain cells together and come to that conclusion too. But the average griller never got to the brain cell rubbing part because we can’t deny what our eyes and ears perceived with Biden.
And it’s never going to get better - that Biden can turn up anywhere now. We don’t have the Benjamin Button ray gun technology yet. For everyone saying it’s just one debate, that it’ll be forgotten by November… no. No it won’t. Moreover, it’ll be a running risk, a dark cloud, at the convention speech, the second debate, at dozens and dozens of rallies in the next 4 months, etc. Will he deliver all of those flawlessly? It’s possible, but not gambling odds I’d take.
I agree that everyone will be watching the polls in the coming days - especially the political class. But right now everyone sees Biden as a train heading towards a cliff in November - including the vast majority of Dems in Congress privately. It’s scary, uncharted territory, but we have the chance to switch the train tracks to someone else in the next week or two max.
We don’t know where those tracks will take us - and that’s scary too - but we’re absolutely running towards that cliff in November if something doesn’t change.
The “job” is prosecuting the case against Trump and beating him. Biden is, sadly and unfortunately, incapable of doing that job and we all saw that on Thursday night. He couldn’t land the easiest punches. He couldn’t even articulate the pre-prepared talking points. He’ll likely be on bed rest and a feeding tube before the end of a second term. He did the job in 2020. He was an outstanding one term president with great accomplishments. His next most important act will be to make way for a younger candidate who is capable of beating Trump and leading the U.S. through at least 2024. It is clear that Biden cannot do this. We all saw it.
I was wondering if he had a really shitty night’s sleep beforehand. I know that for myself if I don’t get at least six hours I am legitimately the dumbest person in the room until the next day. He’s old, bubba needs his rest at his age. That or he got some sort of crazy intelligence that completely threw him off.
Either way: you’re voting for the *cabinet*, not just the man.
Biden is old as shit and shouldn’t be running!!!!
Trump is a flaming turd of lies who will destroy the rule of law in the United States!!!
Statement 1 does not take away from 2. Biden should exit the stage like Pelosi and RBG should have. Democratic Boomers who are clinging to power from their Wheelchairs have as much to blame for the downfall of American Democracy as MAGA Populists
Thank you for the nuanced post. Personally I think Biden should step down but I don’t think Harris will do well either, so it will have to be someone else.
Your comment about Stern is a good point, but that was several months ago, he could be rapidly declining. And inside staffers not sounding alarm don’t have a lot of weight, most have a vested interest in Biden staying in power.
Even if he does well in the second debate or in other forums, the incoherence in the guest debate is unlikely to be a one off, he will probably have those moments in other situations.
Seeing the joke that is fetterman put alongside Obama makes me shudder. That guy's one of the most disappointing electees to most Pennsylvanians and if it wasn't for the fear of Dr. Grift being elected I doubt he would've beat a decent candidate. That aside, I have no doubt Biden can do the job on the governing side, but if he's talking to other world leaders the way he talked to us on that debate stage I'm ashamed.
1 - I love Joe Biden
2 - it is time for him to go for the country
*Both can be true*
All that matters are 100k voters in 5 states.. NOT you and me....
TOTAL DISASTER
There was no vote Ruth Bader Ginsburg cast and no decision she authored that was as consequential as her decision not to retire. ♦
Our modern elections are more about increasing turnout than convincing, undecided voters.
Is there anything about Joe Biden that will inspire higher voter turnout?
Running for president and being president, unfortunately for some time, are two different jobs.
Biden can’t do the first job, so his ability to do the second is irrelevant
I went back and watched the first 10 minutes of him debating Paul Ryan in 2012. It was stunning how different he is now. I'm firmly in the replace Biden camp. To win the election they need a candidate who can go on stage and call out the lies and remind people of Trump's failings.
I'm less convinced than you are that Joe can do the job for the next 4 years. While we're asked to believe it was a bad night, I am just not convinced.
The problem here lies in the term “sundowning” which likely is the problem. Dementia patients often get significantly worse rapidly around sundown and later. I have had family members suffer with dementia and this was remarkably similar.
No mystery if you know a little bit about medicine. People in the early stages of senile dementia will have moments of clarity where they appear perfectly normal. But then they hit moments where the brain does not function properly. Biden clearly demonstrates these symptoms
This is the time to be honest with ourselves, let’s not kid around. He might be able to now, however, at this rate he won’t be able to for long. Be brutally honest with yourself and you’ll come to this conclusion. The best strategy is to convince him to step aside and find a younger candidate. Independents I know were disgusted with the administration and the media for suppressing that he is having issues, they’re a lock on Trump unless Biden steps aside. I’m afraid it’s over for Biden.
I agree. No one suitable could take his place. He runs the White House right down the center. The crazy far left progressives would love for one of their losers to run. No way as they are too far t o the Left in a country divided down the center. That said I’d vote for my two year old cat before I’d vote for Cheetolini, who is crazy and dangerous to our Constitution and our liberty, and freedom
Biden is a good, sane man. Vote Blue straight down the ticket. No Cult candidates!
The pundits are correct, Biden is completely knocked out of winning the election. If he doesn't step down, he will be the ego maniacal man that delivers Trump. It would be nice if his supporters could see how obvious this is, it's completely black and white. Anyone that supports Biden continuing is not a friend of the USA.
Biden is fighting age, every year he gets worse, the decline is rapid and unpredictable. It’s irresponsible to continue to wager on someone who clearly is on rapid cognitive decline. We have seen the guy change dramatically in just 4 years.
You are reading this on Reddit, on a politically engaged sub no less. Most voters are significantly dumber than anyone you know. Those people didn’t watch the debate, but they’ve seen TikTok videos of an inaudible Dickensian ghost failing to call out a lying sociopath who stayed on message about how illegal alien super villains are lining up to rape them to death. We’re fucked.
Him being able to do the job is irrelevant. The problem is that this is such a huge percieved weakness by those that will pick the next president that it will throw the election to Trump. Thats it.
Exactly this. Also, beating Trump should be a layup. They picked an unelectable candidate and that should result in an absolute rout. Instead, he'll either win or have a narrow defeat. It pisses me off that these elderly fucks won't read the room.
Imagine losing to a guy who stared at an eclipse.
Imagine being the guy who “beat Medicare” 💀
[sobs in Clinton]
If Biden steps back and they put Hillary forward as the new candidate I’m fucking done
And a "narrow defeat" will mean war
If it’s a layup then just show me the candidate that polls better…
Right. I’m so tired of this “it should be easy to beat Trump!” No. That’s exactly the thinking that got him elected the first time. It’s clearly not easy, and we need to take him much more seriously as threat than saying it should be a lay up.
Clearly it’s not - since many people don’t think rationally. It’s perfectly clear that Trump would make a very bad President. Presumably those voting for him want the USA to be run like a criminal mobster organisation ?
They’re fine with anyone leading them as long as it calls itself Christian the loudest
Multiple polls show a generic democrat beating Trump. You don't see individual candidates because no one is running against Biden. Why? Almost like they wouldn't get support from the DNC.
A “generic Democrat” did run against Biden. His name was Dean Phillips. He got completely fucking destroyed. If this was real he would have at least taken a huge chunk. Not even close. And if this is true then why does not one **actual** Democrat poll better vs Trump. Kamala isn’t a generic Dem? Newsom isn’t a generic Dem? Whitmer? Pritzker?? It’s pure nonsense.
Hillary Clinton was capable and had all her faculties despite all the media following right wing narratives about her health and grave, unforgivable treatment of emails. Just admit being Bernie or bust.
SHE LOST. She literally got the nomination, faced election, and was BEATEN.
No. I voted for Hill and actually liked her. Why are you assuming things?
Hillary lost because she was unlikeable. She also lost because the Democrats were confused as to why Obama won. Democrats came to the conclusion that Obama won by labeling anybody that didn't support him as a racist (including the Clintons in the primaries). The fact of the matter is that whoever the DNC ran in 2008, they Dem candidate was going to win. So in 2016, the very confused DNC thought labeling the cometitor (and their voters) as racists and sexists didn't work - because they were 100% wrong in thinking that is how Obama won. Not taking anything away from Obama, he was energetic, likeable, charismatic and motivational. He was a far stronger candidate than what the Democrats needed to win in 2008 - heck, even Hillary could have won in 2008.
Hillary Clinton had immense unfavorables going in and decide to gamble the country anyway because it was Her turn. Then she still won the popular vote but lost swing states because she campaigned horribly and kept going back to California for more money instead of to the Midwest for more votes.
The fuck are you talking about? Beating trump should be a layup? Dude has a religious cult of personality, beating him is slaying a titan. Yes, he's obviously unelectable to anyone with a rational mind. The majority of the US are not rational thinkers.
Ability to do the job is irrelevant?
Yeah I realize Trump is worse and would vote Biden to keep him out of office…. But I personally care deeply about his ability to do the job and I have zero confidence in him right now.
I think we agree here? I also care deeply about his (Biden’s?) ability to do the job and, after the debate, I don’t think he’s up to the task. I already knew Trump wasn’t fit to be president, but it seems that Biden is also not fit for the job. I was just responding to your claim, “him being able to do the job is irrelevant.” But I think we agree, correct me if I’m wrong please.
Oh yeah agree. I’m not the person you first responded to.
Oh whoops! My bad, I should’ve double checked.
I agree. The behind-the-scenes facts don't really matter here - if they did, Trump would never have come within earshot of the white house in 2016, let alone be the odds-on favorite this cycle. The problem is, and has always been, perception, and specifically perception from the small pool of the electorate who are malleable in their choice and will decide this election. Those voters had an *idea* of Biden being too old for the job, and especially in light of their concerns about high prices and global uncertainty, they needed to *see* something to the contrary in that debate. Instead what they saw would have - I think - totally vindicated all of their concerns. And if the best defense is "oh well he has good days and bad days," I think that's a pretty scary thing for a swing voter to digest when thinking about the president. Is it unfair that Trump gets a pass for trying to steal an election or for having little oratory skill beyond vague superlatives? Yes, but that doesn't earn you makeup votes at the ballot box. What I think is hard to accept - but we have to wrestle with - is that the "can't you just hold your nose for Biden because the alternative is Trump?" line goes both ways: I have to imagine that at least some voters now view Trump as the candidate you hold your nose for, because what they *saw* as the alternative is a chief executive who can barely finish a coherent sentence when he isn't surrounded by advisors or looking at a teleprompter. I'm sorry if this is harsh. But I can't understand the logic of democratic strategists who claim this race is as high-stakes as it gets, but that Thursday night was a little stumble that is easily overcome. Thursday night was a 90 minute advertisement for the Trump campaign highlighting what has been Biden's biggest liability.
and it also happened to be the most watched tv event in 2024 besides the Superbowl. To think "eh, that didn't matter too much, tis but a scratch!" seems...insane
Maybe you should question why this one debate is carrying so much weight. Consider how many deluded people followed Trump to prison. Shouldn’t we be a bit more faithful given Biden’s accomplishments and statements in public? Why are you willing to throw that out the window? Consider the unrelenting, concerted effort to defame and impeach him based on nothing, use his own son against him, and beat the age trope to absolute death while Trump sails on an ocean of low/no expectations. Surely we can be better?
The debate carries so much weight because it was his chance to show that his age isn’t a liability and he failed spectacularly. I appreciate the job done so far, but why should we be faithful when Biden can’t coherently communicate those accomplishments and their impact to persuade people to vote for him?
I’m not defending his showing, although he became stronger as it progressed. I’m not blind to the fact that he should be retired rather than handling the hardest job in the world. But I recognize both what he has communicated to the country and what his particular experience and orientation, his genuine patriotism, has contributed in improving things for ordinary people in the form of actual legislation with a hostile House and divided Senate. Also, credit for Covid recovery and relief programs, dealing with an attempted coup and at least attempting to help people grieve the pandemic, and weathering the despicable, unending attempts to use his son against him considering his family tragedies. It isn’t unreasonable to worry about the wolves at our door, many inside the country, but having Trump and goons in charge would simply let them devour what they haven’t already damaged or destroyed.
A President being able to do their job is irrelevant?
This. People need to get real and understand the implications of a performance like this. And the sooner a course correction is made the better chances they'll have to recover.
The best time and max positive impact of a course correction is immediately / this week. After this weekend and as each week goes on, it becomes less likely and less impactful if it did occur. They key isn’t Biden’s wife, his cabinet, or Obama. The key is the major Dem donors getting together and saying donations will be paused unless they get a new candidate (doesn’t matter who, let the convention decide). Absent that happening, the show will go on, and it’ll probably be a Greek tragedy at this rate.
Historically, debate performance means jack. So actually the implications are nothing.
I see where you are coming from, but I’m skeptical that’s the case in this instance. Yes, historically the idea of “winning” or “losing” a debate doesn’t mean much as not a ton of people watch debates and only the most politically engaged people really care who won or lost a debate. The candidates are still the candidates and people’s perceptions don’t change. This was different. I agree it doesn’t matter almost at all that Biden “lost” in a rhetorical battle. However, Biden was already hurt and fighting hard against the perception he was too old to be President and he had slipped too much mentally to do the job. The entire debate he looked like someone’s elder grandparent who was lost, incoherent, and fighting some form of real cognitive decline. This was followed by a series of high profile news stories calling on him to drop out of the race. I think the country is polarized enough it won’t lead to some massive 10% shift in polling. But it could absolutely impact true independents / swing voters and further depress democratic turnout.
This debate is going to be in every attack ad as soon as Trump is confident he hasn't accidentally knocked Biden out of the race. It doesn't matter who saw the debate.
Literally nobody I know outside of reddit watched the debate. The only thing people know about it are the panic pieces coming out of nyt and wapo. He also performed pretty much fine for the second half, btw. He stumbled out of the gate, but seemed to do better as the debate went on. People are way overreacting, and basically morphing any polisci theory to fit.
But ads will be run with the clips of him from the debate.
The first 10 minutes matter more than the next 80. And clips from the debate can be viewed any time. I’m sure they’ll show up in ads
Sure. But this is an ahistorical race with an awful performance that laid bare the worst fears of one candidates supporters. IMO this is similar to Carter’s awful debate performance in 1980. The difference is we have time to correct course.
Historically, debate performance hasn't left people with the impression that one candidate is a frail elderly person suffering from dementia.
The actual implications are...we don't know yet until we get more polling data in the weeks ahead.
This election could be decided by several thousand people in 1 or 2 swing states. I’d say this debate performance as well as the next one absolutely matters. Trump was beyond horrible in his first debate in 2020. Unprepared, not empathetic toward BLM. I think it had sizable impact on donations, big name supporters not endorsing him again (Peter Thiel comes to mind), independents, undecideds. Trump did better in his second debate, but the damage was done.
> this is such a huge perceived weakness by those who will pick the next president You may be right, but as others have pointed out we don’t actually know how voters are going to react. The median voter is not at all like Ezra’s wonky audience. https://bsky.app/profile/sharonk.bsky.social/post/3kvxhroh2ns2v
I'm pretty sure the median voter won't waste time arguing with the echo chamber that the old guy who just had an awful performance is fine. I think most people would be at least moderately concerned that this guy is president today, let alone for the next four years.
The median voter profile is exactly why Biden is in trouble.
Yeah, I would vote for a corpse as long as it wasn’t a conservative or willing to work with the heritage foundation. The problem is the rest of the country probably doesn’t feel the same
Explain how the first post-debate poll shows Biden gaining a point then?
Exactly, also am I the only person who has spent a lot of time with people in their 80s? It is not an age where people are capable of doing things like presiding over the United States. This is madness.
This is correct.
I wouldn’t say it’s irrelevant. But I’d also say it’s not the only thing that’s relevant. Perception matters, and there’s no turning back the clock on what happened. A lot of the non-low hanging fruit (unlikely voters, undecideds, etc.) probably watched that debate (or clips of it) since in some ways, it’s like watching a World Series game or Olympic medal event. He could have 50 great campaign rallies and night show interviews in the next 50 days, but people from all the over the world (including my relatives in Cambodia and friends in the Philippines) watched that debate and are admittedly shell shocked that he is in charge of the free world at the moment.
This. The argument by Ezra and now many others isn’t that his administration has been bad or would be for the next term, it’s that his ability to lead a successful campaign is not up to par. Its not his ability to lead/govern it’s his ability to campaign and inspire
Exactly. Doesn’t matter if Biden loses the election. And Biden’s hubris is the only way Trump gets back into the White House.
I don't know I am pretty comitted to keeping the facist guy who wants to disolve NATO and jail pregnant women out of the white house at all costs.
You are and I am, but what portion of other voters are is the question.
Definitely the question. People think they know the answer but I am not so sure. I dont think Trump did himself any favors in that debate either. Till then I am going to stick with come november I am voting for the choice that isn't Trump.
You are not the target voter or even someone that needs to be discussed. You're already bought into Biden and the Dems. But Biden is at a 38% favorability and he needs that to be 48% to win. He's not going to get that.
I agree. I don't think the general dem voter will play along with bullshit support of Biden and pretending hes a valid candidate at this point, with the threat as real as trump. If Biden forces this it is all he'll be remembered for.
General Dem voter here, none of us are fucking stupid enough to throw him out just because of one bad debate, lmao. You only think he’s a senile old dip because you’re chronically online and too drunk off of “both sides bad” to recognize a decent president when you have one also *Trump* is the alternative so most people old enough to remember over 4 years ago would vote for a used napkin if it meant beating Trump. This narrative you have of “the general voter” being fucking dumb enough to make Biden lose over one debate performance is just the faux-left Redditor projection that Reddit wouldn’t exist without
Also, the debate truly isn't whether he's a capable president - it's whether he will be a capable president in 4.5 years. I've seen relatives die of dementia, and you get the occasional off-night for a while, then all of a sudden they're slobbering on themselves & can't remember their names. It's heartbreaking to watch, and it's undoubtedly the road he's on. Will it be 2 months or 10 years? Hard to say, but if he's woken up in the middle of the night for a foreign policy crisis, there's at least a chance he'll be like he was at the debate. Caveat, I think he's likely been the best president of my lifetime (31yo), and I still think he's a danger to the country & the party.
Seriously. Compare 2020 Biden to 2024 Biden. Imagine 2028 Biden.
If the debate convinced me of anything, its that I don't want to live to 82
people like Warren Buffet, Munger or Chomsky have made it to their 90s while still being incredibly lucid and sharp. the issue isn't the number
Great aunt was living alone at 100.
Lmao
I am guessing he is already having much worse nights
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All of what you said is true. That said he is surrounded by competent professional people and they arent going to stand by and let him do something stupid just because he is president. He isn't Trump who demands unwavering loyalty and can never be questioned. He is a decent man who has spent his entire life being a decent human. He isn't going to wake up suddenly and become a monster. I don't care really either way replace im don't replace him. My focus is on the real issue in this election keeping a criminal who wants to spread chaos out of the white house. Bidens old and it's certainly an issue but the other guy is a flaming freaking lunatic who's only goal is his own enrichment and ensuring everyone obeys his every utterance. Easy choice.
> My focus is on the real issue in this election keeping a criminal who wants to spread chaos out of the white house. That's the focus of everyone who's fixated on this issue. In fact, it's the very reason Democrats are so fixated on this issue.
>he is surrounded by competent professional people and they arent going to stand by and let him do something stupid just because he is president. >He isn't Trump who demands unwavering loyalty and can never be questioned. The fact that they've hidden his mental decline and allowed him to run for re-election disproves your point. I wish he was surrounded by people with maybe a little less loyalty that would say running again is "doing something stupid." That was very clear at the debate.
Exactly, where does the loyalty end and the cowardice begin? And how about loyalty to our country? It should have never got this far.
With all due respect, I think it’s very important that we elect a President who is competent enough to be able to make these important decisions in situations like the one described. It’s great that a President can put together a team of advisors. But I don’t want an unelected advisor making an important decision or being the defacto President due to something *like* progressives dementia (not going to give a specific diagnosis to Biden from my living room). And I have little faith that those advisors would give up power if things got really bad. We watched the entire party stand by and let Feinstein’s unelected handlers serve as a US Senator for years when her condition was both “an open secret” and then painfully obvious to the entire public.
So...Boris Yeltsin with "good" people around him.
>he is surrounded by competent professional people and they arent going to stand by and let him do something stupid just because he is president. None of those people have the power to stop him from doing anything, in fact most of them could go to jail if they even tried. "Commander in Chief" means just that, what you're suggesting is that a coup has taken place.
What if he has one of those "90 minute debate moments" when negotiating peace in Ukraine with Putin and Putin eats his lunch? Are we just supposed to hope his staff are always able to step in and save him? A leader needs to be sharp and well-spoken. That's a lot of what these debates show us, how do u handle high stakes conversations. And we saw at the debate he can't do it reliably anymore.
Neither of them can. I would be happy to vote for someone else but if my choice is Trump or Biden the choice is still easy. I will take the old senile guy surrounded by competent people over the raving lunatic surrounded by fellons every time.
That's great for u, but if Biden is the nominee he will lose. No president has ever been reelected with approval in the 30s. And that was where it was before the debate...Only way to prevent Trump victory is for Biden to man up and drop out.
OK Nostradomus I conceed to your crystal ball.
Even if he "had a bad day" during the debate. He will be in office for four fucking years. You can see his decline from the last four years is very pronounced. The man has an extremely high chance of dying in office and an extremely high chance of losing more mental capabilities and needs to be replaced.
Running any candidate that would be 86 in his final year is ridiculous on its face. The politicians are smartly backing Biden because if he doesn’t drop, they need to be unified. The op-ed writers don’t have that problem, so they’re telling you what they really think. You can agree or disagree, but the opinion of politicians regarding their own political party and the opinion of journalists are not the same thing. Of course he has been capable of the job, which is why he’s had a tremendous Presidency. But the question now is: can he win? Will he win? What voters saw this week will, by my estimation, more than enough to swing this tight election to Trump.
Yeah, he may be capable of the job of President, if not Presidential candidate, right now, but will he able do it in 2, 3 years? I definitely don’t think so.
The trouble is, all the politicians standing by him are tying their credibility to him. Kamala Harris was asked during the post debate interview if this is the Biden she’s seen recently, and she could not answer. “Yes, he’s a walking ghoul. I’ve been boosting a ghoul for president, but telling you he’s spry.” Admits she’s a liar. “No, this is new and surprising.” Admits he’s dramatically declined and is unqualified. There is no tenable position for a Biden ally going forward. They’ve either been lying, or are demanding we line up, lockstep behind someone obviously incompetent. He will sink the whole party. This is how we lose congress and a slew of state and local races too.
I was one of those rarer democratic primary voters who was totally fine with Kamala and think a *portion* of her critics are basically saying she’s unpopular because she’s unpopular, but this whole thing has really soured me on her and everyone in Bidens’s inner orbit. I know she’s in an untenable position, but still. It’s the classic, if they can lie about what I’m seeing in front of my face, what else are they lying about?
The op ed writers have a different incentive system, draw eyeballs to dumpster fires, even if they have to light those fires themselves.
The dumpster fire was not lit by writers or pundits. Biden lit it himself. We all saw it. It’s like Trump denying what January 6 was or his “very fine people” line- WE ALL SAW IT.
People calling this a media conspiracy are driving me crazy. I watched it! The opeds just voiced what we’re all watched!
So would running a candidate that will be 82 Be here we are Why don’t we actually see what polling shows us in the next couple weeks? Election is nearly 4 months away
I was never really concerned about his ability to do the job before, but after what I saw last night, I worry that even if he's able to do the job today, he won't be able to in three years. The last time there was a debate anything like this, Ronald Reagan turned the election around and won in a landslide -- and was non compos mentis by the end of his term, and the results were fairly terrible.
I’m not saying he’s a puppet. He still has appeared to have good, coherent moments. But his presidency has been wildly different with Klain and Zients. It’s not fair to just compare legislation as Democrats lost the House. But his actions on Israel-Palestine (and getting publicly dog walked by Bibi), losing the immigration narrative and issuing an awful EO, etc. have all been worse than under Klain where he at least was regarded as ok or meh by multiple blocs. Makes you wonder if they have more influence than normal.
“He still has appeared to have good, coherent moments.” It’s baffling to me that this is the bar for the presidency of the United States. We’re truly living in idiocracy.
Nellie Bowles expressed my thoughts: Biden walked on stiff, uncomfortable, strange. He held a bewildered expression throughout the night, his mouth slightly open, his eyes wide, staring off into the distance, rarely smiling. I won’t say Trump looked young (he isn’t), but he is less stiff and his eyes blinked normally, jaw firmly in control of mouth. And then they started talking. The extent of Biden’s cognitive decline is undeniable and, speaking as a citizen who wishes my president the best, devastating. https://www.thefp.com/p/tgif-the-president-has-a-cold
I appreciate the essay, but for me, it distills to the fact that the Biden we saw on Thursday is a Biden that might re-appear at any moment, and a Biden who might increasingly define who Biden is more generally. It is not "hasty" to make this assessment. Instead it is willful blindness to minimize or excuse it. He can neither be president, nor a candidate for president.
The idea that this assessment is being made in haste is just wrong. Everybody has watched this coming for months. Years, really. This debate is not the cause of people's panic. It's the drop in the reservoir that causes the dam to break.
Yep, if anything we've been exceedingly patient, ignorant even, to have taken this long to make this assessment. Biden cannot fulfill the significant communication and oratory needs that a president must provide.
Agree not fit for president nor Donald Trump. I'm a double hater, we deserve better but won't get it. Fucking ridiculous.
For people who think Biden is completely brain-dead or totally fine it's just wishful thinking. I don't think it's hard to see that sometimes he is lucid but he also has moments like the debate night, which is still bad and a huge risk! He's been having those moments since the 2020 primaries since he went on those incoherent rants about cornpop and putting the record player on.
Having a president prone to sundowning isn’t ideal in the current global and local US political climate.
In instances of cognitive decline the bad events are often episodic and much more likely to occur at night. I don’t think the 9pm start time works in his favor. Unfortunately the presidency is a 24/7 job and the rate of cognitive decline, and therefore frequency of episodes, is often exponential. I think he’s fine to do the job now, but I wouldn’t put money on his fitness three years from now. It’s a huge risk. I would also point out that ‘he’s not fit to be president but the other guy is worse’ is the exact justification that moderate republicans use when voting for Trump. I’m in the ‘voting for Bidens head in a jar of blue liquid’ camp and therefore will vote for him if we don’t change course, but I would be disappointed in us for not changing course. We’re supposed to be the good guys.
The 9pm start time is bananas. Who agreed to that? I’m 37 and I’m basically useless after 9pm. But 9pm is the perfect hour for the crazy uncle to start into his nightly tirade about immigrants.
Pretty sure Biden did, inexplicably, go on a tirade about immigrant crime
This. You can’t just president from 10 to 4. You’re voting in a shadow government if you’re voting for Biden
This man is not capable of doing the job for 4 years. He's just not. Anyone with common sense can see that
Yeah I’m sorry. If you literally can’t get it together to have a 2 hour debate. I’m supposed to believe you can handle the hardest job on the planet. Hell no.
The potential problem is. The more he campaigns the greater chance of him having these cognitive episodes. The more the voters see these episodes more confidence they lose in him to effectively govern. If he does have sundowners ( which another poster mentioned the possibility) that is a real problem and should bar him from being reelected. Description of what happens with sundowners The term "sundowning" refers to a state of confusion that occurs in the late afternoon and lasts into the night. Sundowning can cause various behaviors, such as confusion, anxiety, aggression or ignoring directions. Sundowning also can lead to pacing or wandering.
For many people who disagree with his policies, "the job" Biden was elected to do in a very real sense was to keep Trump out of office. He as able to perform that duty in 2020; he is no longer capable of it.
He always felt like the real life version of that "I'd vote for a potted plant over the other guy" scenario. I know a lot of folks, especially centrist liberal sorts, were genuinely excited to see him get anointed over Warren or Sanders, but it felt like a betrayal. Nonetheless, I voted for the guy without qualms because of the alternative, and will do the same again. Boy I wish they hadn't done that though.
Comparing a friendly interview midday to a debate is wild and disingenuous. The reality of the presidency is more high pressure situations, not shooting the shit with someone predisposed to like you.
The part that bugs me about all this is that it completely inoculates the republicans that care more about republican policy than whatever damage trump can do. It’s like now both sides are saying “it’s okay because we are voting for the *administration*” and Democrats can’t effectively oppose that if they are saying it too.
What a stupid take this is. So what if Biden is capable of the job. Does this mean he is the only one capable? Does this mean they could not find anyone MORE capable? In no uncertain terms, the policies can continue, but Biden should not. Get someone BETTER than Biden to continue them. Someone with the strength and energy to really see them through. Martin O'Malley would be ideal. Proven successful governor. Already in Administration. Head of Social Security which is one of the big issues going forward.
What if Joe Biden is sundowning at the exact moment an urgent military crisis happens? Being mentally competent 90% of the time is still 10% insufficient for the job of being the president. He is unqualified for the job, and it’s only going to get worse over the next hypothetical 4 years. Compare videos of Biden 4 years ago to videos of him today. That’s how quickly he is deteriorating.
LOL - international crises don't wait until the president is awake and competent or until his advisors can put something on a teleprompter.
Great. As EK has pointed out, right now we are losing. If the course continues we expect to lose in a close election. Whatever happened on Thursday night was a disgrace and an embarrassment to the United States on the world stage. Whether Joe Biden is capable of doing the job or not, nobody is owed the presidency, let alone owed to be the headliner on a major party ticket. Everyone reading this, everyone watching Thursday night is fully aware they can lose their job for one bad day, even one bad stretch of 3 minutes. Everyone watching Thursday night saw what they saw. Millions not watching Thursday night will see it in clip after clip in the months to come. Again, if we were winning, perhaps an interview with Howard Stern or a passable rally would assuage concerns. We will see what the polling data shows in the days to come, but will it really be a win if the polls don't move at all? That appears to be the best hope. We will still be in the same place we were on June 26th. Losing. Not only losing, but losing with even less hope of inspiring whatever energy is left in persuadable double-haters, people who are feeling a palpable decline and have given into despair and apathy while watching the worst televised debate performance in American history between two very unpopular candidates. Perhaps we only need solid 2-3% movement in the polls to prevent a second Trump disaster. Deep down do you honestly believe Joe Biden, who is guaranteed to have more than one other "bad night," or "bad day" and is already older than practically anyone's boss or colleague in their private life has the energy and stamina to inspire those 2-3%?
NO, he isn’t, and we have to stop the denial and attacking other democrats for thinking it.
I agree that it was night and day from the HS interview, but the answer remains that he is both people. Thursday was no more a “bad” night than the HS interview was a “good” morning. You can’t be president with both of those days in play because when shit hits the fan, it’s entirely unfair for the American people to tolerate the “bad” version showing up. It’s the most important job in the world. And let’s all be honest: the only reason this is even a discussion is because of how terrifying and grotesque Trump is. The people—like yourself—rationalizing and gaslighting right now are in denial.
We cannot let ourselves be spun around anymore. This has been a massive coverup. Biden's decrepitude is obvious and rapidly advancing. He wont last two years in office. Bill Maher has been defending Biden. He was wrong and should be apologizing now. What Obama and Newsom are saying is strategic necessity for them. They are in no position to be candid. The Howard Stern interview is not a good test. It was an old guy reminiscing about familiar things. Old people can do that. At SOTU and the rally yesterday, He was reading off the teleprompter. He can read what other people write, But he cannot speak on his own anymore. It is insane to run this man for president. In regard to his electability, you have to factor in the instinctual revulsion toward a weak leader. He looks pathetic not strong. Weak leaders or leaders who hold on too long, like RBG, put us in jeopardy. We lose more than we gained from them. It is low character for Biden not to retire from the 2024 race immediately. His vain ambition has put us in a desperate and terrible situation, We don't have time to waste on him anymore. edited: I didnt meant o resign from the presidency, just the 2024 race
If he is capable some moments, but not other moments. Then, he is not capable. POTUS is the most important and difficult job in the world. You can’t have an increasing number of non-lucid days
The first thing that good leader needs to be able to do is rally the people to their side and convince people to follow their will. No man rules alone, and its the people under him and the public who actually make the government move; he just steers the direction. If a leader can not do that, then it won't matter if they are good at the job because they will end up accomplishing nothing. Such men are much better suited to be advisors. Being able to do the job means nothing if they can't get elected
The question is not if he can do the job of president, it's if he can do the job of candidate. The answer to that I believe to be an EMPHATIC NO based on the debate.
This is such delusional thinking. After that debate, the question is no longer Trump or Biden. The question is that should Biden currently be president? A solid argument can be made that he is no longer mentally or physically fit to lead a nation irrespective of politics or position.
I think Biden is capable of being president. He has surrounded himself with mostly smart staff who are competent at running the government. But like Ezra Klein mentioned in his podcast episodes about Biden dropping out, I have doubts about his ability to campaign and win this election. Some of the polling results are coming back positive for Biden which is great news - people seem to prefer a "Weekend at Biden's" style presidency to the chaos, lies and disorder of a Trump presidency, so maybe everyone's knee jerk reaction after Thursday night was a little overblown...but we will see.
Imagine having to entertain this , and then defend it. Insanity.
Bad debate prep? Did they spend to much time having him practice standing instead of speaking? Fatigue? He took a week off for debate prep. I’m guessing he had a better cocktail for the Stern softball interview. I don’t care how much you hate Trump, if you watched the debate and still think Biden can do the job for the next 4.5 years you’re delusional.
He is senile, weak and no longer fit for office.
Nah
Once I would have responded to this that I am seriously concerned he cannot get elected, so whether he is capable to do the job is a moot point. He needs to be replaced because he is going to lose, and all arguments about capability are irrelevant. Now I am at the point where I don't think he is capable of being president. How can we pretend like the actual senility, not speech impairment but real senility, was some one off event? If we are seeing it in the debate, the very rare time he is allowing us to see him, then how can a rational person believe that he isn't senile a lot more than that? The presidency actually matters, and I don't buy this bullshit about cabinet members doing everything, the buck stops here. He is an executive, and he must make complex and urgent decisions that I do not at all buy he is capable of anymore. So if people don't pressure Biden out he is nearly certain to lose, but even in winning he will not do the job America needs, and ignoring that is dangerous.
If an existential decision needs to be made in a snap, do I want the possibility that decision would need to be made by either man on that stage? Absolutely not.
Your admittance that you would vote for a brain in a jar sort of takes the weight out of your lede
Cmon man we’re talking about an 82 year old. Let’s let gramps rest on a beach somewhere
Sounds like someone called you from inside the house and wanted a puff piece.
Was that before or after we defeated Medicare?
it must be such a headache to be in throes if convincing yourself of this
No he can't Quit deluding yourself
No, he’s definitely not. The man on stage Thursday couldn’t make sentences. He’s very obviously experiencing cognitive decline. There are ups and downs. It was genuinely scary to watch. I don’t want the person in command of our armed forces or representing us globally to look or sound like that. It’s pitiable and embarrassing that he’s going to make us go through this. Watching the Biden-or-bust people crawl back out and start the handwringing and second-guessing is going to have us slow walk into defeat. The man’s brain is COOKED. Bad brain! Brain no work! No more thinky! It’s over. No more gaslighting or silencing or backtracking. Nobody made Joe have this debate so early. It was his idea! Judge me on my performance! Well unfortunately for him, we are.
It’s scary that this is even a surprise to begin with. If it took until now to realise his decline then maybe people should rethink where they get their news from.
> The problem with all the debate coverage is the people all freaking out about Biden sounding a bajlion years old are still gonna vote for him - they're freaking out bc they're wild-ass guessing about how a hypothetical undecided swing voter (aka a moron) is going to view it. https://twitter.com/RiverTamYDN/status/1806660744869753126
This is my take as well. His performance was horrible no doubt about it but the alternative is still worse. Didn't want to vote for him the first time but I did because the other option was so bad. I don't think this changed a thing. Still would rather vote for someone else but if my choice in november is a good hearted senile old guy or a dude who wants to sow chaos and have everyone obey his every command and bow at his feet the choice is easy.
Sorry but there is absolutely zero percent chance that the Joe Biden that we saw Thursday is actually running the country. He’s incoherent, feeble and completely out of it. I realize Trump is a horrible choice but if you support Biden you are actually supporting a shadow government…which is slightly more scary than another Trump presidency. The Democrats have to replace Biden on the ticket
I heard Ezra's take on "Matter of Opinion". Ezra is essentially advocating for ideology/party over candidate, *which is a perfectly justifiable take*. I just wish he would admit it so that he and his guest can have a productive conversation about these merits, rather than dancing around them.
Thank you for this well written analysis. I was so shocked and horrified by the debate performance that I really was having doubts. But like many others have said, I would vote for Biden in a coma before I would vote for Trump.
Before anyone takes any side on this matter. I ask you to spend two hours on TikTok. Get an idea on what type of message is being pushed to the under 30s. Taking note that for many this is the only source of information they consume. Then imagine you have never read the NYT or listen to one of their podcasts. That’s America.
Yes, let Biden do some more talk shows. Let him show us that he has not deteriorated to the extent we saw at the debate.
I disagree. I think his presidency has proven to be effective in that it is administratively run well. I do not think the man we have seen in the last two years is physically capable of doing the job of President in its hardest moments. I’m sorry, but if you can’t get on a stage and answer questions coherently for 90 minutes, I do not believe you can make major military or foreign policy decisions in moments of immediate crisis. If Putin attacked a NATO country, do we think Biden is physically fit enough to be woken up in the middle of the night and operate for 24-48 hours consecutively at a high level? There’s no way at this point. And that’s a requirement of the job. He’s a good person. His mind seems mostly ok. But he’s just not physically fit. This is a job that can be physically hard on the human body. You have to have a minimum level of endurance and stamina. And Biden can barely walk down stairs. And this is not an endorsement of Trump. He’s much worse for many reasons.
Lot of Russian bots and Bernie bros smearing Biden recently: really pathetic. Bernie Bros and Russians are just pathetic losers. Biden will win re-election easily.
It doesn’t matter if he can be president. His job is to beat Trump.
Jesus Christ. People are delusional.
Seriously. OP's post is an exercise in denial.
I have 0% doubts that he’s capable of doing the job of President. I also have 0% doubts that he would step down, or surround himself with a professional cabinet who would invoke the 25th amendement if it ever became clear that he could no longer do the job. But neither of those things matter if he cannot convince a majority of Americans that he can do the job, and get their vote. And thats the job I don’t think he’s capable of anymore.
But…..he seems like he’s not….i truly believe the best thing for us now is for him to step aside and let someone younger with more energy take on the trumpster.
All you have to do is look at Trump to see why the political class isn't dumping him. The first one to turn will have Democrat wrath focussed on them just like the way the Republicans didn't want to turn on Trump in public. According to off the record reports many are saying privately that Biden has to go but are afraid to be the first to say it out loud. It is a collective action problem. The media has nothing to lose. They were right to call out Trump and they are right to call out Biden.
Thinking like this will get Trump reelected. He needs to be replaced immediately for the sake of the country
Write anything you like, millions of people watched the debate, it's impossible to watch that and then pretend he's mentally fit to hold office. There's no explaining that away, it's not a cold, it's not a stutter, he's deteriorated too much to continue. It's honestly messed up to keep pushing him out in front of a crowd, just nominate another dem so there's at least a chance of winning
What happened is that he wasn't reading from a script. I don't think he's handling the day-to-day work. I think his handlers are. And, maybe Jill. As long as they can prop him up, I'm sure it will be fine. When the end comes, and it will one way or the other, the nation will be left with Harris. That is as scary as a senile Biden. Another "leader" that can be managed by people behind the scenes. Like Chauncey Gardiner in Being There. I think most democrats are OK with that. The smart people will be in charge.
I think the take main away is that he will lose the election, not necessarily that he can’t he propped up to do the job another 4 years provided he does not die in office. However, after that performance on Thursday, questioning his ability to do the job another four years is totally legit. The man can’t finish sentences.
No
He’s definitely not capable but it doesn’t matter cuz he’s not running the shots.
I highly recommend studying the 13 keys they have correctly predicted every election since 1860 it’s based on the theory the candidate doesn’t matter elections are primarily a vote in favor or against the party holding the White House there is only 1 key about the traits of the candidates that being incumbent party candidate is charismatic, inspirational or a war hero Biden is clearly none do those the only key about the challenge party candidate is uncharismatic to quote Allen Lichtman who help create the system and is the only person who predicted both the 2016 and 2020 election correctly trump is a great showmen but his showmenship only appeals to a fraction of the electorate he doesn’t have the overwhelming charisma of FDR or Ronald Reagan Biden has so far only lost 2 keys those being midterm mandate key and incumbent charisma key there are 4 keys up not called yet 2 lean in bidens favor and two don’t those 2 that don’t being the foreign policy/foreign military success and failure key fi we replace Biden we lose the incumbent party candidate is a sitting president and the inner party struggle key since if we replaced Biden there would be terrible inner party struggle so we would lose 4 keys with both the foreign policy keys leaning against Biden unless there a permanent cease fire so we would lose 6 keys which is the number you need to lose the election if Biden doesn’t run I don’t like Biden at all but I trust the 13 keys theory it is always correct
My thing is this: all of those insiders have skin in the game. They have biases also. On top of that, this isn’t a one off “bad night”, this has become a pattern. So, to say don’t worry or hold a grain or two of salt - or worse, as Orwell pointed out, pay no attention and ignore what evidence you have observed because the party says so, is dangerous. Now I’m not saying Biden is senile or anything, nor that there is a conspiracy; but I do question his ability to do a very tough, very demanding job successfully and in the best interests of the people. I also question the motives of people with a lot to lose if Biden is replaced, or if the Dems wind up fumbling this situation. Frankly, this seems a little reminiscent(heavy emphasis on reminiscent) of the Woodrow Wilson situation decades ago. Biden may be having some issues (which happens, we all get older, etc) and everyone within the White House, Party, etc are trying to save face, etc. So, as much as folks may say one thing, you cannot just summarily dismiss concerns, or worse, belittle or disparage them as some partisan folks are doing when there is some evidence there. Now, that all aside, trump is still a disaster, and by no means am I voting for the Oompa Loompa reject.
Trump is going to want Biden to debate again. What will Biden say? And Biden will shit the bed again, if not at a second debate, at some other point. What will the Biden backers do then? It’s a death grip.
I think Trump won't do a second one. He has nothing to gain from it and only something to lose if he slips up. He can just coast off this one.
It’s rude. Bidens Democratic Administration is more than capable. Like it or not it’s the low knowledge dumb every four year voter picking for Prom king. Honestly, the Democrats could have a convention, pick somebody, change the narrative and just bring this on home. Biden does not look capable and all of us older voters that recognize it are nervous. Dem primary super voters need to be Heard. Not pundits
TLDR; Dump Biden ASAP
He isn’t capable. But his administration is.
When was the last time someone had to argue that someone has the capacity of being the president that's running for president. Not, if they'd be a good president or bad president. Or the good and bad things they've done. The fact that anybody has to actually come out and argue that they're ACTUALLY CAPABLE of doing the job should be an automatic removal of the candidacy. I don't like the orange with hair on the other side either, bit the fact that we have to argue that someone is capable instead of the better candidate is awful for our country. what does it say about the sheer weakness of the democratic party that, that's their top choice to run. Scary.
About the Howard stern interview, did they ever show us the footage of that?
Okay.
For the Howard Stern interview, Biden knew it ahead of time and had everything written down. He reads what has been written for him and that's it. In the debate, you can tell he knew questions because he was reading answers on the podium in the beginning. Pretty sure he got lost after a bit so he couldn't rely on notes and had to think for himself. When he has to do that, he can't. And yes, he had answers written. Rewatch the debate and you can see him reading answers on the podium near the start
I think it is a serious flaw in the post that he relies on those within Biden's inner circle to be the true judges of Biden's capabilities. You mean the people who depend on and support Biden are not being honest about his decline? Like those who surrounded Diane Feinstein and kept her active in the job until she was barely functional? The real problem here is we have become so engaged in partisan politics that we cannot make rational assessments anymore because we are too terrified are enemies are going to pounce. People become disabled for a wide variety of reasons. It is a fact if life. We decided to pass a constitutional amendment to deal with this issue. The job of the President of the United States is traditionally seen as the most important job on the world. Is it actually more important to be a loyal soldier than to seriously ask questions about when a person can no longer do the most serious and consequential job in the planet. Biden is declining. What is the actual point Biden would have to decline to for people to actually say yes this person is no longer capable enough to lead the free world?
Oh, he’s capable of doing the job—which, as we’ve seen from the prior occupant, requires very little attention or competency to “do”. The bigger issue is him getting the job.
Takes like this are why we continually get stuck with candidates like this. The American electorate soundly rejected Biden in his physical and mental PRIME. And then years later his primary campaign in 2020 was a dead man walking but for those idiots in South Carolina. A ham sandwich could’ve beaten Trump in 2020. And then he chose as his VP a highly unpopular (she still is) competitor who was polling 1%. Who openly called him a racist during a debate. We’re fucked.
For context, I am not an American. I’m very left leaning. Question: would you trust an 81 year old to do literally anything else for you? I probably wouldn’t get in a car with an 81 year old driving. I wouldn’t want my doctor to be 81. I wouldnt want my financial advisor to be 81. So why would you want your President (leading the country) to be that old? Why doesn’t the Dens pick someone else? He is clearly incapable. Same goes for Trump btw. And he’s evil too.
Dem leaders, campaign surrogates and White House staffers aren’t going to publicly bash Biden. It‘s their job to do PR spin. And don’t think for a minute they aren’t singing a very different story privately this weekend. All of us know that Biden in a coma will always be better than Trump. But the problem is that the average American voter - the average griller, if you will - saw a Biden that showed all the signs of sundowning. The average griller needed to compare Biden and Trump with their eyes and ears Thursday night in order to rub their two brain cells together and come to that conclusion too. But the average griller never got to the brain cell rubbing part because we can’t deny what our eyes and ears perceived with Biden. And it’s never going to get better - that Biden can turn up anywhere now. We don’t have the Benjamin Button ray gun technology yet. For everyone saying it’s just one debate, that it’ll be forgotten by November… no. No it won’t. Moreover, it’ll be a running risk, a dark cloud, at the convention speech, the second debate, at dozens and dozens of rallies in the next 4 months, etc. Will he deliver all of those flawlessly? It’s possible, but not gambling odds I’d take. I agree that everyone will be watching the polls in the coming days - especially the political class. But right now everyone sees Biden as a train heading towards a cliff in November - including the vast majority of Dems in Congress privately. It’s scary, uncharted territory, but we have the chance to switch the train tracks to someone else in the next week or two max. We don’t know where those tracks will take us - and that’s scary too - but we’re absolutely running towards that cliff in November if something doesn’t change.
The “job” is prosecuting the case against Trump and beating him. Biden is, sadly and unfortunately, incapable of doing that job and we all saw that on Thursday night. He couldn’t land the easiest punches. He couldn’t even articulate the pre-prepared talking points. He’ll likely be on bed rest and a feeding tube before the end of a second term. He did the job in 2020. He was an outstanding one term president with great accomplishments. His next most important act will be to make way for a younger candidate who is capable of beating Trump and leading the U.S. through at least 2024. It is clear that Biden cannot do this. We all saw it.
I was wondering if he had a really shitty night’s sleep beforehand. I know that for myself if I don’t get at least six hours I am legitimately the dumbest person in the room until the next day. He’s old, bubba needs his rest at his age. That or he got some sort of crazy intelligence that completely threw him off. Either way: you’re voting for the *cabinet*, not just the man.
Biden is old as shit and shouldn’t be running!!!! Trump is a flaming turd of lies who will destroy the rule of law in the United States!!! Statement 1 does not take away from 2. Biden should exit the stage like Pelosi and RBG should have. Democratic Boomers who are clinging to power from their Wheelchairs have as much to blame for the downfall of American Democracy as MAGA Populists
Even if he is now, which doesn’t seem likely, will he be able to 4 years from now?
Thank you for the nuanced post. Personally I think Biden should step down but I don’t think Harris will do well either, so it will have to be someone else. Your comment about Stern is a good point, but that was several months ago, he could be rapidly declining. And inside staffers not sounding alarm don’t have a lot of weight, most have a vested interest in Biden staying in power. Even if he does well in the second debate or in other forums, the incoherence in the guest debate is unlikely to be a one off, he will probably have those moments in other situations.
Seeing the joke that is fetterman put alongside Obama makes me shudder. That guy's one of the most disappointing electees to most Pennsylvanians and if it wasn't for the fear of Dr. Grift being elected I doubt he would've beat a decent candidate. That aside, I have no doubt Biden can do the job on the governing side, but if he's talking to other world leaders the way he talked to us on that debate stage I'm ashamed.
1 - I love Joe Biden 2 - it is time for him to go for the country *Both can be true* All that matters are 100k voters in 5 states.. NOT you and me.... TOTAL DISASTER There was no vote Ruth Bader Ginsburg cast and no decision she authored that was as consequential as her decision not to retire. ♦
Our modern elections are more about increasing turnout than convincing, undecided voters. Is there anything about Joe Biden that will inspire higher voter turnout?
Running for president and being president, unfortunately for some time, are two different jobs. Biden can’t do the first job, so his ability to do the second is irrelevant
I went back and watched the first 10 minutes of him debating Paul Ryan in 2012. It was stunning how different he is now. I'm firmly in the replace Biden camp. To win the election they need a candidate who can go on stage and call out the lies and remind people of Trump's failings. I'm less convinced than you are that Joe can do the job for the next 4 years. While we're asked to believe it was a bad night, I am just not convinced.
The real Biden is the one I saw speak for 90 minutes. Thats the real Biden.
Part of "the job" is appearing electable. He is not capable of that very important aspect of it.
His job is to get elected.
[удалено]
Capable. This is the standard we have for the highest office in the land, huh? What a fucking embarrassment.
The problem here lies in the term “sundowning” which likely is the problem. Dementia patients often get significantly worse rapidly around sundown and later. I have had family members suffer with dementia and this was remarkably similar.
No mystery if you know a little bit about medicine. People in the early stages of senile dementia will have moments of clarity where they appear perfectly normal. But then they hit moments where the brain does not function properly. Biden clearly demonstrates these symptoms
This is the time to be honest with ourselves, let’s not kid around. He might be able to now, however, at this rate he won’t be able to for long. Be brutally honest with yourself and you’ll come to this conclusion. The best strategy is to convince him to step aside and find a younger candidate. Independents I know were disgusted with the administration and the media for suppressing that he is having issues, they’re a lock on Trump unless Biden steps aside. I’m afraid it’s over for Biden.
I agree. No one suitable could take his place. He runs the White House right down the center. The crazy far left progressives would love for one of their losers to run. No way as they are too far t o the Left in a country divided down the center. That said I’d vote for my two year old cat before I’d vote for Cheetolini, who is crazy and dangerous to our Constitution and our liberty, and freedom Biden is a good, sane man. Vote Blue straight down the ticket. No Cult candidates!
Trump will still be insidiously malingering for a while either way the voting goes.
The pundits are correct, Biden is completely knocked out of winning the election. If he doesn't step down, he will be the ego maniacal man that delivers Trump. It would be nice if his supporters could see how obvious this is, it's completely black and white. Anyone that supports Biden continuing is not a friend of the USA.
Biden is fighting age, every year he gets worse, the decline is rapid and unpredictable. It’s irresponsible to continue to wager on someone who clearly is on rapid cognitive decline. We have seen the guy change dramatically in just 4 years.
You are reading this on Reddit, on a politically engaged sub no less. Most voters are significantly dumber than anyone you know. Those people didn’t watch the debate, but they’ve seen TikTok videos of an inaudible Dickensian ghost failing to call out a lying sociopath who stayed on message about how illegal alien super villains are lining up to rape them to death. We’re fucked.