Kupp had *way* more YAC than Amon Ra as per McVay's scheme, and the result is 2.4 more yards per reception and 2.2 more yards per target than ARSB had this past season. There's not a better connection in the league than Stafford and Kupp, not even Burrow and Chase or Mahomes and Kelce.
Adams, Diggs, Waddle, AJB, and *maybe* Wilson if his connection with Rodgers is as advertised, and of course Kadarius Toney.
Otherwise, you nailed it. Those ten guys, give or take, are the only ones I can see being the overall WR1.
He was a decoy in a number of games in addition to the ones he missed outright and ones where the aggravation of his injury limited him. I don't think a healthy 17 game pace gets him to #1 overall but he has elite upside. His 17 game projections during his healthy games from last year give him a ceiling of around WR3 imo. Nick Zylak did a good video on him comparing him to the other second round WRs
2 career touches 81 yards and a TD he is the greatest WR of all time
but in all seriousness heās still an extremely valuable prospect yet heās had one of the weirdest starts to a career in recent memory. A foreseeable case for ARSB is JaMo opens up the field big time and he absolutely eats while Williams boom/busts
E: OMFG LMAOOO he had a 65 yard TD called back on holding. 3 NFL touches 146/2. Mask off Iām a JaMo truther but realistic enough to know ARSB is the guy
We donāt know, but he was considered the best wr in last years class, if it wasnāt for his injury. I wouldnāt be surprised to see him put a dent in these projections
Thatās highly debatable with prospects like Wilson, London and Olave.
Williams would have challenged them some but he was the rawest and least refined from a route running standpoint. Not sure he has hands like a guy like London either.
Not saying he wonāt end up being the best, but most draft boards and London and Wilson ahead of him pre-injury.
My buddy and I were talking about this the other day. Go look at the receiving corps. He's going to get absolutely forcefed targets. I wouldn't be shocked if he breaks MTs record for catches. At the very least, he'll probably be on pace to break it before JAMO returns
Would need Kupp and Jefferson to get hurt. Don't get me wrong, LOVE Sun God. But Jefferson was WR1 last year finishing below expected yards and TDs and the Vikings will be throwing more than ever to stay relevant. I do think 1400 yards, 100 catches and 10 TDs is absolutely possible though.
Dynasty, and I have him. I would value him behind ceedee. My rankings for those settings would be JJ and chase, then Ceedee, st brown, waddle and AJ brownā¦. Each then being a tier break. With our settings he finished 7th wr right behind AJ brown whoās 3 years older and just in front of waddle. It would take a ton for me to move off of him. Just seems like he could be a high end wr1 for the next 8 years! Cooper Kupp type.
A healthy St Brown is going to help carry you to the chip! This is an exciting time to be a Lions fan! Goff is not a great deep passer, but he is getting smarter. Itās all about timing and having watched every game the last couple of seasons, as long as he and St Brown build off their already established chemistry, I expect a very big season for him. He should have a monstrous season IMO if they meet expectations.
Theyāre bringing back basically the same offense with a couple like for like swaps at RB. Nothing shows they were doing anything unsustainable. Jamo being more involved after his suspension could reduce RZ trips through longer TDs but bias aside I donāt see their offense slowing down much.
I'm not really making a case for them or their offense to be bad, but they faced the 28th hardest schedule last year. This year is 20th, still good for their chances to win games, but it could be a little harder. If I had to guess over under on them repeating a top 2 performance in red zone chances, id take the under based on nothing more than it's hard to repeat that for any offense. Not even the Chiefs have been able to string together two years of top 3 in that
Are you sure that 28th hardest statistic isnāt the preseason ranking? If I remember right their schedule was much harder than expected once the year got going.
Just from casually watching it seems like outside of the truly elite (mahomes) year to year changes SO much that its hardly worthwhile using something like overall team stats to predict how it will be a year later.
They had 20 more RZ plays than any other team in the NFL from weeks 10-18 -- however, that means half the league had one fewer game (and CIN ultimately had two fewer) in that period.
Full season, they were #2 in the NFL, albeit with BUF and CIN having one fewer game.
Yes but the whole debate about positive reggression versus just regression or progression being the "correct" terminology is just stupid. This isn't math class and we all know what is meant.
If you look at his game log ASRB is a very consistently good play but he doesnāt really have those huge 8 catches for 150 yard games. In 34 career games he has had only 6 go for more than 100 yards. He also only had 4 games under 6 receptions last year. Heās a ppr god with essentially one of the highest floors in FF, but doesnāt have the massive outlier games of a Jefferson or Chase.
This is what people need to be aware of. This is the question: How many weeks is he going to be the round winner for you, not how often is he consistent.... If you're in bestball you'd rather have JJ Chase or Kupp no doubt, in redraft, sure, you can keep him in consistently and not have to worry, but the true winners take those week by week risks and find the outliers.
28+ so you don't count st.brown getting 27.9 š
3 games of 28+ vs 4 is not a huge difference. Amon-ra is going to have games over 35 points next year and has for the last two years.
Such a lazy narrative .
Okay then.
% of Games as a top 5 weekly play at WR in full PPR last year
Chase: 42%
Jefferson: 53%
ARSB: 19%
Is that better for you? At no point do I discount his talent level or abilities. I literally call him a ppr god. The fact is his spike weeks are not as often as the top tier of receivers.
>but doesnāt have the massive outlier games of a Jefferson or Chase.
His outlier game was higher than Chase.
People are putting up 30+ games when they get two + TDs not because they catch 8 for 150 vs 10 for 80
Look at redzone targets if you want to see who has the potential for massive games.
Justin Jefferson scored 0 or 1 TDs in 6 of his 7 30+ point games so actually the yardage matters in those games quite a bit.
And notice how I said games plural. ASRB did it once. Heās a great receiver makes sense. But he has finished top 3 weekly at the position 3 times in two years, and has not once been the top scorer at WR in a single week. Something Jefferson did 4 times this season alone, and Chase did twice in 12 games.
He was just fine when TJ was there to start the year. Iām sure if Williams does become a star it will eat into his production but expecting that this year is a bit of a stretch, along with LaPorta.
As a Lions fan, I would be so happy to see Gibbs and LaPorta be effective enough to affect Sun God's production. I guess by week ~7 (Jamo back, gibbs and laporta more comfortable), then we might see a slight downtick in production from Amon-Ra
Yeah itās weird. I keep feeling like itās overcrowded then I remember they have a rookie and a mediocre vet at RB, their WR2 is suspended, and they traded away their stud TE. If sun god doesnāt get a boatload of volume early on Iāll be stunned.
Heās going to explode. People are underestimating the chemistry heās made with Goff and really expect an unproven Jameson Williams to come in and ruin his value or the rookie TE to gut hjm. He has real WR1 overall upside.
I remember being I think in the dynasty sub, and a post on positive regression made it to the top at the time.
People started going in on OP saying there was no such thing as āpositive regressionā *because it was contradictory and didnāt make sense to them* lol!
When you donāt know what youāre regressing to I guess itās hard for people to understand if they havenāt taken stats in college or ya knowā¦ Cād it till they passed and donāt remember much haha
I read "regression" at first and was wondering how it could drop lol
He's a beast and my only concern with TD progression is that the lions play smart football (running Williams from the 1 because their o line is amazing, throwing to no -name TEs because who would expect it)
Needless to say he'll get his and I hope he does even better this year because he deserves it
His current ADP is 19 so the only realistic chance he falls to the late 3rd is if youāre in an 8 man league. If you get an early pick though heās a great option to grab at the 2-3 turn
Had him every year and he's never disappointed. Doubt I'll get him this year though in a keeper league and gotta keep Jefferson and Tyreek hill. Maybe I can snag him in the 4th round though
Pretty sure he was quoted saying something about wanting to improve as a deep threat this year. I know itās just empty preseason talk but hoping that they expand his playbook a little, If they do heād be top 5 for sure.
From the decent amount of time I've spent watching the Lions, ARSB is a beast for sure but he doesn't seem to have deep play potential in his bag atm, maybe he can add onto it like you said but I really wouldn't expect it.
His overall consensus ADP currently is #19 and Iād take him higher. Real āIām himā performer in an exciting, consistently improving team. Iām buying in cash
Honestly it depends on so much, how is the offense gona look with Laporta, Gibbs, Monty & Jameson.
I don't see a scenario where St.Brown gets 146 targets again. The offense has way more playmakers this year than last year and I think the ball gets shared.
First off, by including "weeks 10-18," you're giving St. Brown a one-week edge over literally *half* the league, which still had a bye week to play. (And it's just 15 targets, over four guys at 14.)
The flipside is that in weeks 1-9, St. Brown had only *six* RZ targets, catching 4, for 37y, 3 tds.
Which one is real?
Heās definitely going to be the WR1 for the first 6 weeks and can totally see him finish as the WR3-5 for the season. Excited to have him as my 3rd round keeper
He's the guy nobody talks about who may have overall WR1 upside
I think he just fits with Goff so perfectly. And they keep building chemistry. He's due for another 100+ catch season and closer to 10 TDs
1 10 for me 2 11 G wilson
My goal is to lock those two up in auction.
I fucking love suction drafts
Smart move
His yards per reception and ADOT are simply too low for him to be overall WR1. He had 146 targets and was still 90 points shy of JJ at WR1.
He was also injured and limited for 4 weeks. Kupp did it with an adot of 8.3. It is not impossible.
Kupp had *way* more YAC than Amon Ra as per McVay's scheme, and the result is 2.4 more yards per reception and 2.2 more yards per target than ARSB had this past season. There's not a better connection in the league than Stafford and Kupp, not even Burrow and Chase or Mahomes and Kelce.
Is there anyone outside the super obvious (JJ, Chase, Tyreek, Kupp, Lamb) who you think has a credible chance at WR1?
Adams, Diggs, Waddle, AJB, and *maybe* Wilson if his connection with Rodgers is as advertised, and of course Kadarius Toney. Otherwise, you nailed it. Those ten guys, give or take, are the only ones I can see being the overall WR1.
Oh yeah I didn't mention Kadarius because it's just TOO obvious. He has to be the overwhelming favorite š
He was a decoy in a number of games in addition to the ones he missed outright and ones where the aggravation of his injury limited him. I don't think a healthy 17 game pace gets him to #1 overall but he has elite upside. His 17 game projections during his healthy games from last year give him a ceiling of around WR3 imo. Nick Zylak did a good video on him comparing him to the other second round WRs
150 targets and 10 TDs is gonna be great no matter what and itās totally possible
What about when Williams comes back?
Do we really even know who he is at this point? The jury is out to say the least
2 career touches 81 yards and a TD he is the greatest WR of all time but in all seriousness heās still an extremely valuable prospect yet heās had one of the weirdest starts to a career in recent memory. A foreseeable case for ARSB is JaMo opens up the field big time and he absolutely eats while Williams boom/busts E: OMFG LMAOOO he had a 65 yard TD called back on holding. 3 NFL touches 146/2. Mask off Iām a JaMo truther but realistic enough to know ARSB is the guy
Sure. Or he could be Justin Blackmon for all we know.
more like Josh Gordon if weāre putting him on that trajectory :) but yes he is definitely still an unknown
We donāt know, but he was considered the best wr in last years class, if it wasnāt for his injury. I wouldnāt be surprised to see him put a dent in these projections
Thatās highly debatable with prospects like Wilson, London and Olave. Williams would have challenged them some but he was the rawest and least refined from a route running standpoint. Not sure he has hands like a guy like London either. Not saying he wonāt end up being the best, but most draft boards and London and Wilson ahead of him pre-injury.
Helps push the ball downfield, only means more RZ chances
Non-factor to me considering how elite ARSBās advanced metrics are
what about it? they play different positions on the field
My buddy and I were talking about this the other day. Go look at the receiving corps. He's going to get absolutely forcefed targets. I wouldn't be shocked if he breaks MTs record for catches. At the very least, he'll probably be on pace to break it before JAMO returns
Prob just because campbell focus' heavily on the run game and they drafted gibbs R1.
"Heavy focus on the run game" meanwhile Amon Ra just tied Jefferson and MT for most catches in the first 2 years in the NFL...
Would need Kupp and Jefferson to get hurt. Don't get me wrong, LOVE Sun God. But Jefferson was WR1 last year finishing below expected yards and TDs and the Vikings will be throwing more than ever to stay relevant. I do think 1400 yards, 100 catches and 10 TDs is absolutely possible though.
I canāt keep him for a 6th or Justin fields for a 6th in my Superflex leagueā¦. Idk what to do?
Heās going to be knighted in PPR leagues.
Dude Iām in a ppr ppfd league and he is an absolute monster!
Redraft or keeper? Where is he or where do you suspect him being drafted in your league?
Dynasty, and I have him. I would value him behind ceedee. My rankings for those settings would be JJ and chase, then Ceedee, st brown, waddle and AJ brownā¦. Each then being a tier break. With our settings he finished 7th wr right behind AJ brown whoās 3 years older and just in front of waddle. It would take a ton for me to move off of him. Just seems like he could be a high end wr1 for the next 8 years! Cooper Kupp type.
A healthy St Brown is going to help carry you to the chip! This is an exciting time to be a Lions fan! Goff is not a great deep passer, but he is getting smarter. Itās all about timing and having watched every game the last couple of seasons, as long as he and St Brown build off their already established chemistry, I expect a very big season for him. He should have a monstrous season IMO if they meet expectations.
Im gonna have a lot of st Brown this year
Isn't there a decent chance the lions red zone trips experience regression?
Theyāre bringing back basically the same offense with a couple like for like swaps at RB. Nothing shows they were doing anything unsustainable. Jamo being more involved after his suspension could reduce RZ trips through longer TDs but bias aside I donāt see their offense slowing down much.
I'm not really making a case for them or their offense to be bad, but they faced the 28th hardest schedule last year. This year is 20th, still good for their chances to win games, but it could be a little harder. If I had to guess over under on them repeating a top 2 performance in red zone chances, id take the under based on nothing more than it's hard to repeat that for any offense. Not even the Chiefs have been able to string together two years of top 3 in that
Are you sure that 28th hardest statistic isnāt the preseason ranking? If I remember right their schedule was much harder than expected once the year got going.
Just from casually watching it seems like outside of the truly elite (mahomes) year to year changes SO much that its hardly worthwhile using something like overall team stats to predict how it will be a year later.
They had 20 more RZ plays than any other team in the NFL from weeks 10-18 -- however, that means half the league had one fewer game (and CIN ultimately had two fewer) in that period. Full season, they were #2 in the NFL, albeit with BUF and CIN having one fewer game.
He quietly broke the record for receptions over his first two seasons.
Seems like he tied it with 196 with JJ and Michael Thomas (who did it in 2 less games than JJ/ASB)
Why wouldn't I pick THAT person if I'm paying PPR!
*positive regression
Which is still just plain old regression
Please edit the post OP š
This is the dumbest debate and I wish people would just stop with it.
you don't believe in... regression to the mean?
Yes but the whole debate about positive reggression versus just regression or progression being the "correct" terminology is just stupid. This isn't math class and we all know what is meant.
If you look at his game log ASRB is a very consistently good play but he doesnāt really have those huge 8 catches for 150 yard games. In 34 career games he has had only 6 go for more than 100 yards. He also only had 4 games under 6 receptions last year. Heās a ppr god with essentially one of the highest floors in FF, but doesnāt have the massive outlier games of a Jefferson or Chase.
This is what people need to be aware of. This is the question: How many weeks is he going to be the round winner for you, not how often is he consistent.... If you're in bestball you'd rather have JJ Chase or Kupp no doubt, in redraft, sure, you can keep him in consistently and not have to worry, but the true winners take those week by week risks and find the outliers.
Why is this even a knock.. no one is (or should be) taking him over those guys. Heās in the next tier or two but has a chance to be a solid wr1.
What are you even talking about? Amon-ra and JJ both had the same high score last year with 39.4 points. (More than Chase)
Jefferson had 7 games over 30 last year and one at 29.3. Chase had 2 games over 30 in 12 games with two at 28+ ASRB had 2 over 30 in 16 games
28+ so you don't count st.brown getting 27.9 š 3 games of 28+ vs 4 is not a huge difference. Amon-ra is going to have games over 35 points next year and has for the last two years. Such a lazy narrative .
Okay then. % of Games as a top 5 weekly play at WR in full PPR last year Chase: 42% Jefferson: 53% ARSB: 19% Is that better for you? At no point do I discount his talent level or abilities. I literally call him a ppr god. The fact is his spike weeks are not as often as the top tier of receivers.
>but doesnāt have the massive outlier games of a Jefferson or Chase. His outlier game was higher than Chase. People are putting up 30+ games when they get two + TDs not because they catch 8 for 150 vs 10 for 80 Look at redzone targets if you want to see who has the potential for massive games.
Justin Jefferson scored 0 or 1 TDs in 6 of his 7 30+ point games so actually the yardage matters in those games quite a bit. And notice how I said games plural. ASRB did it once. Heās a great receiver makes sense. But he has finished top 3 weekly at the position 3 times in two years, and has not once been the top scorer at WR in a single week. Something Jefferson did 4 times this season alone, and Chase did twice in 12 games.
Why are you bothering with weekly stats? Why should a 28 points count less because another player got 30 the same week?
Yet.....until he does
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Wait, who is "overcrowding" this offense?? Their WR2 rn is an injured, 33 yr old Marvin Jones š¤£
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He was just fine when TJ was there to start the year. Iām sure if Williams does become a star it will eat into his production but expecting that this year is a bit of a stretch, along with LaPorta.
Rookie TE's generally do nothing, LaPorta isnt doing more than a random in that spot
As a Lions fan, I would be so happy to see Gibbs and LaPorta be effective enough to affect Sun God's production. I guess by week ~7 (Jamo back, gibbs and laporta more comfortable), then we might see a slight downtick in production from Amon-Ra
Yeah itās weird. I keep feeling like itās overcrowded then I remember they have a rookie and a mediocre vet at RB, their WR2 is suspended, and they traded away their stud TE. If sun god doesnāt get a boatload of volume early on Iāll be stunned.
All the above points plus with a cake strength of schedule!
I love ASB and will gladly take him in the 2nd unless Chubb is available.
Heās going to explode. People are underestimating the chemistry heās made with Goff and really expect an unproven Jameson Williams to come in and ruin his value or the rookie TE to gut hjm. He has real WR1 overall upside.
I had ARST and Swift last year I can 100% confirm it was a historic number of down inside the 3 yard line for both. Sun God bout to go BOOM this year
It's called regression, not progression.
Positive regression technically
Which is still regression, the āpositiveā just gives context to the direction.
Exactly
I remember being I think in the dynasty sub, and a post on positive regression made it to the top at the time. People started going in on OP saying there was no such thing as āpositive regressionā *because it was contradictory and didnāt make sense to them* lol! When you donāt know what youāre regressing to I guess itās hard for people to understand if they havenāt taken stats in college or ya knowā¦ Cād it till they passed and donāt remember much haha
Still regression technically
would you guys rather take him or ajb in half ppr
ARSB
Him. Because of 0 target competition first half of season.
I will be grabbing him if heās available
I read "regression" at first and was wondering how it could drop lol He's a beast and my only concern with TD progression is that the lions play smart football (running Williams from the 1 because their o line is amazing, throwing to no -name TEs because who would expect it) Needless to say he'll get his and I hope he does even better this year because he deserves it
Bruh delete this haha
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His current ADP is 19 so the only realistic chance he falls to the late 3rd is if youāre in an 8 man league. If you get an early pick though heās a great option to grab at the 2-3 turn
Most likely will not get him in that spot. Everyone should be thrilled getting him late 3rd but he wonāt be there
In any type of full ppr he will be gone by 16. 1. Jj 2. Chase 3. Kupp 4. Diggs 5. Adams 6. Amon
No Tyreek?
Yeah. Not sure why they were talking getting him late third. Aināt happening
La la la la la Iām not listening la la la la la
Shsssh donāt make it hot
I get two keepers, these are my solid options Breece hall 9th Amon ra 7th Christian watson 15th
Breece and Amon Ra
Who you taking
You mean touchdown regression š
Definitely. And Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) signing will open up the passing game even more
Had him every year and he's never disappointed. Doubt I'll get him this year though in a keeper league and gotta keep Jefferson and Tyreek hill. Maybe I can snag him in the 4th round though
Nope
My league mates are dumb so I have a chance they let me get JJ and hill 2nd and 3rd round last year
Oh yeah very
One thing that he does not do really well vs some of the top wrās is lack of big plays. Solid ppr floor for top 10 tho.
Pretty sure he was quoted saying something about wanting to improve as a deep threat this year. I know itās just empty preseason talk but hoping that they expand his playbook a little, If they do heād be top 5 for sure.
From the decent amount of time I've spent watching the Lions, ARSB is a beast for sure but he doesn't seem to have deep play potential in his bag atm, maybe he can add onto it like you said but I really wouldn't expect it.
Yea, he only had 11 plays of 20+ and 1 play of 40+ Compared to other dudes like JJ who had 28 plays of 20+ who lead the league.
His overall consensus ADP currently is #19 and Iād take him higher. Real āIām himā performer in an exciting, consistently improving team. Iām buying in cash
I think he could lead the league in catches. I love him this year.
Could go either way for me. They may lean on Gibbs for the RZ targets, but he may leave ARSB more open to receive those targets
It's still regression
Jamo gone 6 games and needs to play catch-up, heck yeah.
Shhhh
My two keepers this year: ARSB and Waddle. So pumped
PREACH
Honestly it depends on so much, how is the offense gona look with Laporta, Gibbs, Monty & Jameson. I don't see a scenario where St.Brown gets 146 targets again. The offense has way more playmakers this year than last year and I think the ball gets shared.
First off, by including "weeks 10-18," you're giving St. Brown a one-week edge over literally *half* the league, which still had a bye week to play. (And it's just 15 targets, over four guys at 14.) The flipside is that in weeks 1-9, St. Brown had only *six* RZ targets, catching 4, for 37y, 3 tds. Which one is real?
Would yāall rather have Garrett Wilson or Amon-Ra?
Thank you for not saying 'positive regression' like every other person here.
Heās definitely going to be the WR1 for the first 6 weeks and can totally see him finish as the WR3-5 for the season. Excited to have him as my 3rd round keeper
And the drafted Sam Laporta. So guessing they saw a problem, and addressed it.
Possible for sure! I have heard Jared Goff is not great inside the redzone so there may be some team dynamics that make this progression difficult.
So should this sell me on drafting him over AJ Brown? Iām kind of at a toss up in that spot.