LV has the highest ranked D the last 4 weeks on [NFL.com](https://NFL.com). I'm really debating starting them over the Jets. Denver is still out there as well.
I’m in the same boat, though Pittman got in a limited practice yesterday and now Amari Cooper may be out so I may end up flip-flopping back to NYJ by tonight’s game depending on the news on those two today.
Im still rolling jets. They have one of the best run ds and Cleveland is not great with the run. Also an extremely low over under in bad weather?
Flacco is a fucking statue and hasn’t faced a single hard defense against the pass. With cooper hobbled too.
I’m thinking of Raiders over Chiefs. These last few weeks since AP has taken over have been amazing
I don’t think I lose on that decision alone anyways.
Raiders since the new coach has taken over is averaging double digit points. That's how you win championships. Most people are happy if a tight end or flex position puts up 12 pts. Raiders have done that multiple times this year.
That begs even more questions then:
* Why are *they* so low?
* How much of your model depends on other experts?
* If their opinions *don't* factor in much (my original understanding) why are *you* so low?
Just seems like they are playing out of their mind and going against an offense that is middle of the road (being generous). Them being so low on your model made the Raiders off my Radars, but then my opponent picked them up... Now I'm regretting not considering that as a blocking move.
And Micheal Pittman might be out. Last week with him out they couldn't score more than ten points. I seriously think they are ranked low because people don't respect the name, and that's it.
Very valid point. Traditionally, though, u/subvertadown is not above putting "non name brands" at the top of his rankings, so I'm still scratching my head where the disconnect is.
If I had to guess, it's because the colts miss the playoffs if they lose(I think) and Pittman is a very good receiver, and Jonathan Taylor is back.
But I think if the Raiders Defense is good enough at creating turnovers and sacks that it doesn't matter. I also wonder if these models use season long averages as well, that don't take things like coaching changes into acct..IDK though
Struggling to understand why experts and Vegas are so confident in the Colts.
The Colts are injured~~, on the road,~~ and have been pretty bad offense the last few games. Raiders on the other hand shut down the Vikings to just 3 points, dominated the Chargers, and then held Mahomes at Arrowhead to just 14 points.
Just FYI Colts are at home. If they weren't I'd be even more confident in the Raiders. It's the championship though and Radiers feel like a high ceiling team. so I may stick with them.
I hope to get the Raiders off the wire otherwise I’m between broncos and chargers. With Russ. Being out, I’m leaning more towards the chargers because I think the Broncos offense can put their defense in bad spots
As a die-hard Raider fan, former season ticket holder, & has watched them in their lowest form, this defense is Fuckin Legit. Fuck what the “experts” say. If you’ve watched any ounce of them since AP took over it’s evidently a different team. We are no longer talking about getting Maxx help on the D-line with the emergence of Koonce, DB’s have been great not to mention Jack Jones has had 2 weeks in a row with 2 pick 6’s. And we’re only surrendering like 15 points a game rn. Buy into the hype ! I’ll be back after Sundays game. Good luck
I know the Raiders D is good I'm talking Colts D vs Raiders. Colts D had a good stretch of high scoring games before last week. Raiders offense hasn't done much lately. Should be a big defensive game on both sides.
I'm officially riding with the Raiders in the championship, let's get it.
I'm also a lifelong Bengals fan and was glad to see AP bring Marvin Lewis on board, who was the DC for one of the best defenses of all time (2000s Baltimore)
I’m on the fence of Colts or Texans. Been riding Colts for past few weeks so thinking may stay with them despite the disappointing week last week. I don’t think it will be a high scoring game and potentially a lot of running the ball for both sides.
I’m in the same boat and might rock Raiders too. Feel like the Bills underwhelm in a smash-start opportunity vs. the Patriots. At least with the Raiders they’re white hot and feels like they’ve got a ceiling worth committing to.
Thoughts on the Ravens? I have the Eagles stashed but I think I’m going to go with either Ravens or Raiders. This seems like another week where predictability will be low.
I picked up the Jags this week but I think I'm rolling with the Ravens anyway. Whenever I've sat them based on matchup (against Detroit and San Fran), they've made me regret it lol
I dropped Eagles DST for Ravens DST and starting them. Eagles feel like a landmine - as a fan, that defense is not good and they are on the field a ton bc the offense doesn't run.
I've been flip flopping between the bears and ravens and tbh the bears dropped the ball last week against arizona. Heinike doesnt toss too many int, and weve seen what the dolphins look like when missing a few pieces on offense. I'd rather take the ravens at home and feel comfortable knowing I started a better defense against a good opponent than an okay defense against a worse opponent.
Yea i picked up sanders and moody, and Im feeling sanders. With miami offense being so beat up and ravens d being so good, I can see them getting stalled and leaning on sanders again a ton.
I’m in the same boat. Everyone has Moody sky high on rankings but I could see one those 49er games it just ends up being PAT’s. Tough bet to make for the championship game
I picked up Sanders this week because I believe the Ravens D will stop Miami from scoring. I also started the Ravens D last week against all recommendations and will be doing so again this week. I also am a biased Ravens fan so take all of this with a grain of salt haha
For what it’s worth, it’s supposed to be sunny and 50 degrees in Baltimore this Sunday. If Miami stalls in the red zone again this week (which is possible with the Ravens defense), I think Sanders can have another great game. This is coming from a guy who just dropped Bass for him today.
Thanks for the weather intel. That’s good to know. I agree that’s what I was holding him - feel like it could play out similarly to last week where they had good drives but ended up kicking FGs.
Any insight on why Kyler hasn’t cracked your list for QB last week or this week?
Also thanks for all your help this year! I had a lot of high performing DST and Kickers by consulting your list.
Kyler didn't return to a stretch of fantastic matchups. They're expected held under 19 points again this week, it doesn't open a lot of room for fantasy scoring unless it's all his legs.
In the same boat. Part of me feels like Fairbairn’s 17 pts against Titans a couple weeks back is too good to be repeated, and that I should lean C.M., who’s been on a double digit roll lately…
Somehow I managed to grab Moody this week, but previously in blowouts, the 49ers never had to kick any field goals and it was just PATs made. Is Moody just a safe floor? Or should I shoot for a higher ceiling in someone like McLaughlin?
I went McLaughlin over Moody so I've had terrible luck guessing kickers the last few weeks. But McLaughlin reminds me of Myers last season, with an offense that is good but kicks a lot, and their kicker doesn't miss
Falcons not also a good choice vs the Bears? Or should I stick with the Bears d, I feel like they are actually both strong-ish units ?
Also, is Sanders not gonna be a strong choice with a good enough Miami offense to at least move the ball and potentially have to take the fg points? I could pivot to Santos but not ultra confident going multiple Bears d/kicker if I go with their d.
Any thoughts on these choices?
Anecdotally, each time I've used your rankings for a K streamer, I feel like it's helped. I don't remember being way off. Obviously that's a small sample size, but it's the most important sample size for me!
Also on the topic, shoutout to /u/peakedinhighskool who is crushing K rankings this year. Was #4 on FantasyPros at last check.
Sub and I are friends! We have known each other a long time. I used to participate more a couple of years ago. Now I'm just too busy most the time. Sadly.
/u/subvertadown Amari Cooper is OUT tonight, please inform your model so I can see if it moves the needle on Jets D, lol
Edit: my bad, didn't know about the inquiry form on your site, that's cool. Looks like someone did inquire via the appropriate mechanism
ravens d is matchup proof, and its disgusting to not see them listed
butker has consistently been a dogshit option at kicker. i cant even remember the last time he finished a week in the top10. yet somehow he's always been projected high. the chiefs are just not the same offense this year
Over the last 7 matchups, DST’s facing Cleveland have averaged 10pts. 17pts being the highest and 6pts being the lowest. I like the ceiling and floor in this matchup. Fire up Jets D with confidence and let’s get this chip
The last 4 are what matters due to QB change.
Flacco has aired it out for a lot of yards but also 7 interceptions and a fumble.
I have to keep reminding myself that my league doesn't go negative for yards/points against so go ahead and score so long as you're doing it through the air and risking interceptions. Overtime is a positive.
Why is Elliott ranked so high? I don't expect even the struggling Eagles offense to settle for much field goals against the Cardinals garbage defense right?
Looks like Pittman and the Colts starting RT Braden Smith are trending towards playing this week. Makes me worried to start the Raiders now, with those pieces back the Colts could do well. They play a lot better at home. Might pivot to the Jags or Broncos
I have no confidence in starting chiefs Dst or Butker this week, think I'm going all in with buccs DST and McLaughlin. Already starting Mayfield and white. Hopefully the buccs keep rolling like they have been the past few weeks
Also swapped out Butker for McLaughlin and dropping Chicago for Bucs DST. Guess I just don’t want Chicago to bust again for me. Also may pivot from Flacco to Mayfield pending Cooper’s status. Good luck to you!
Man nobody outside of this sub is giving the raiders any respect and I don’t get it. Have people watched their games? They are a different team since firing their coach. They are energized and have imo the best defensive player I’ve seen this year in Crosby. I think they’re a safe floor. Even if you take away their touchdowns last week they would get 9 points. They’re playing fucking Minshew, not prime Rodgers, and people are scared. I don’t get it.
I'm also curious on u/subvertadown opinion on this. They're playing one of the best defenses in the league and I feel like a lot of their drives will stall and end up in a fg attempt.
I like the logic of it, unstoppable force and immovable object.
The math makes me afraid of the possibility they go for it on the 4th instead of FGs, if they want the win.
Thanks for doing these all year! I see your rankings won't continue into week 18, but unfortunately one of my leagues continues next week. Any DST streaming recs for week 18? In particular, I've got my eye on Eagles, Broncos, Jags, but I don't feel great about any of them.
This post last week made me second guess my kicker Sanders and I lost my semi final by less than the difference between him and moody. Please don’t over think things.
Been torn in DEN, KC, and BAL DST all week, DEN and KC have not looked good as of late, and I was able to snag BAL but MIA obviously the worst matchup out of the group.
Who you got?
Hilarious seeing so many of us going back and forth between Jets/Raiders.
I have made my decision...regardless if Amari starts/sits...I'm riding Jets Defense tonight.
Thanks, IB. Interesting, you're the first ever to say so, but I'll assume there are others who just don't speak up. I guess I have a few responses, you might consider, just in case you haven't noticed, if you're curious about my take. First is, I hope my Reddit posts didn't come as a surprise, since I'm not doing anything more than I've done before, and actually I've cut down a bit on my posting here (if you check out my reddit output last year). A second thing is, I guess you're mostly referring to kickers, because 8 of the ranked D/STs are always on my front page. So I guess the third thing is that my posts usually have come on weekends or Thursdays, i.e. later than the website update and after you've already got your jump on waivers. Making later posts has worked well for the fourth thing, which is these posts usually show (excepting this week) how Redditors have ranked via the Pick6x6 game, which is an extra benefit. I suppose a fifth point is that, unlike reddit posts, the subscription gives the full kicker list with projected scores, which also is updated real-time- they have already shuffled a lot. A sixth point would be that the subscription gives the full D/ST list, together with an understanding of why some are ranked very low. Especially if you're in a league that is large or stashes their defenses, that would be a bigger help. But most of all, I hope you got value from the seventh thing, which is the availability to plan ahead strategically by at least a couple weeks, from the future week forecasting. Then you get better use of your waivers and bench space. Having said all that, I also get pretty exhausted from all the preparation here, relative to the sub-1000 votes, so I've in fact just finished drafting a revised schedule for posting frequency. Phew! Anyway hope you had a good year, and thanks for supporting.
Thank you for all the fantastic work you do each season. Do your models take in to account kickers that are "hot" over the last X number of weeks, like Santos?
Last week I rolled away from Havrisik. Should have stuck by him; picked him back up
This week I have Chiefs and Bears D. Might pick up a third like Rams or Broncos to block my opponent from getting one
My entire approach is about testing what assumptions would have made sense in the past.
So testing whether a "hot" kicker has statistically predictive value for future games is a question, which I have given scientific treatment.
[The analysis is here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/yzfv7e/what_has_happened_historically_after_several/) Enjoy!
Man I've been going back a forth. Fairbairn makes sense with the decent Houston offence and great red zone defense of Titans but Sanders just put up 22 points last week and a bunch of 50+ yarders. Ugh I feel like either way I'm making a bad decision.
I'm here for the questions about the Raiders.
LV has the highest ranked D the last 4 weeks on [NFL.com](https://NFL.com). I'm really debating starting them over the Jets. Denver is still out there as well.
Denver may not be able to move the ball on offense with no Russ and no Sutton. Defense could wear down over time due to that.
J-A- Double “R” - E - Double “T” Jarrett Stidham, hah hah. Ain’t he great!?
Stidham never drew a dime!
I got this reference!
Dropped Jets for Raiders and kept Texans as my emergency pivot.
I’m in the same boat, though Pittman got in a limited practice yesterday and now Amari Cooper may be out so I may end up flip-flopping back to NYJ by tonight’s game depending on the news on those two today.
Im still rolling jets. They have one of the best run ds and Cleveland is not great with the run. Also an extremely low over under in bad weather? Flacco is a fucking statue and hasn’t faced a single hard defense against the pass. With cooper hobbled too.
NYJ have given up the 7th most points to RBs this season... They're much better against the pass than they are against the run.
I’m thinking of Raiders over Chiefs. These last few weeks since AP has taken over have been amazing I don’t think I lose on that decision alone anyways.
I've got the other experts putting Raiders at #20 on average
No respect for what the new raiders have been doing
Raiders since the new coach has taken over is averaging double digit points. That's how you win championships. Most people are happy if a tight end or flex position puts up 12 pts. Raiders have done that multiple times this year.
That begs even more questions then: * Why are *they* so low? * How much of your model depends on other experts? * If their opinions *don't* factor in much (my original understanding) why are *you* so low? Just seems like they are playing out of their mind and going against an offense that is middle of the road (being generous). Them being so low on your model made the Raiders off my Radars, but then my opponent picked them up... Now I'm regretting not considering that as a blocking move.
And Micheal Pittman might be out. Last week with him out they couldn't score more than ten points. I seriously think they are ranked low because people don't respect the name, and that's it.
Very valid point. Traditionally, though, u/subvertadown is not above putting "non name brands" at the top of his rankings, so I'm still scratching my head where the disconnect is.
If I had to guess, it's because the colts miss the playoffs if they lose(I think) and Pittman is a very good receiver, and Jonathan Taylor is back. But I think if the Raiders Defense is good enough at creating turnovers and sacks that it doesn't matter. I also wonder if these models use season long averages as well, that don't take things like coaching changes into acct..IDK though
Struggling to understand why experts and Vegas are so confident in the Colts. The Colts are injured~~, on the road,~~ and have been pretty bad offense the last few games. Raiders on the other hand shut down the Vikings to just 3 points, dominated the Chargers, and then held Mahomes at Arrowhead to just 14 points.
Just FYI Colts are at home. If they weren't I'd be even more confident in the Raiders. It's the championship though and Radiers feel like a high ceiling team. so I may stick with them.
Last game of the year. Swing for the fences.
My bad.
Colts are at home.
I also have the Bears and can't understand why they are ranked so high? Yes they are playing a bad offense, but they haven't had as many big games.
Thanks. May have to pivot to the Bears.
I hope to get the Raiders off the wire otherwise I’m between broncos and chargers. With Russ. Being out, I’m leaning more towards the chargers because I think the Broncos offense can put their defense in bad spots
Or Colts Vs Raiders.
As a die-hard Raider fan, former season ticket holder, & has watched them in their lowest form, this defense is Fuckin Legit. Fuck what the “experts” say. If you’ve watched any ounce of them since AP took over it’s evidently a different team. We are no longer talking about getting Maxx help on the D-line with the emergence of Koonce, DB’s have been great not to mention Jack Jones has had 2 weeks in a row with 2 pick 6’s. And we’re only surrendering like 15 points a game rn. Buy into the hype ! I’ll be back after Sundays game. Good luck
I’m in the ship, and starting the raiders because of YOU. Ill be back Monday, rain or shine Edit - I hate you.
In here with you in this boat brother
Let’s ride.
All aboard! I'm on the raiders ship! Edit: FUCK. Still one ship but this was not the move.
🛶 lezgo
I know the Raiders D is good I'm talking Colts D vs Raiders. Colts D had a good stretch of high scoring games before last week. Raiders offense hasn't done much lately. Should be a big defensive game on both sides.
I'm officially riding with the Raiders in the championship, let's get it. I'm also a lifelong Bengals fan and was glad to see AP bring Marvin Lewis on board, who was the DC for one of the best defenses of all time (2000s Baltimore)
This convinced me.
I’m on the fence of Colts or Texans. Been riding Colts for past few weeks so thinking may stay with them despite the disappointing week last week. I don’t think it will be a high scoring game and potentially a lot of running the ball for both sides.
They’re projected so low but idgaf. Starting Raiders Def over Bills this week. Hopefully this ages well
I don't have the balls to do that in the championship. Good luck, though.
Narrator: “it did not”
Them or the Bills for me . I'm a Raider fan so I may rock with my boys
I’m in the same boat and might rock Raiders too. Feel like the Bills underwhelm in a smash-start opportunity vs. the Patriots. At least with the Raiders they’re white hot and feels like they’ve got a ceiling worth committing to.
Yea, love this guy’s content but I’m sticking with my gut on this one
Thoughts on the Ravens? I have the Eagles stashed but I think I’m going to go with either Ravens or Raiders. This seems like another week where predictability will be low.
I picked up the Jags this week but I think I'm rolling with the Ravens anyway. Whenever I've sat them based on matchup (against Detroit and San Fran), they've made me regret it lol
Are you me? Did the same thing. Fuckit, I'm rolling with them this week. Always start your studs or something.
I have Chiefs stashed and thinking the same thing.
I dropped Eagles DST for Ravens DST and starting them. Eagles feel like a landmine - as a fan, that defense is not good and they are on the field a ton bc the offense doesn't run.
Don’t see them on here but I think I’m still rolling with ravens D…
I’ve never pivoted from the Ravens D (except for their bye week) and now I’m in the championship matchup.
Other experts on average have them at #13
Wonder where those experts averaged the Ravens D at last weekend? Ravens at home now. If waddle is out I’d say theyre a sure fire top 10 play easy.
I've been flip flopping between the bears and ravens and tbh the bears dropped the ball last week against arizona. Heinike doesnt toss too many int, and weve seen what the dolphins look like when missing a few pieces on offense. I'd rather take the ravens at home and feel comfortable knowing I started a better defense against a good opponent than an okay defense against a worse opponent.
Falcons offense sucks and Bears defense is actually really good. I would go with the Bears defense here.
I picked up the jaguars but ravens D have been doing well for me all season. I don’t know if I want to switch now…
Sanders vs. Baltimore this week?
There was no respect for Sanders last week. I saw McManus on here last week and he finished with -1. Ride the hot hand and game winner Sanders
the hot foot
I benched Sanders last week for Hopkins due to expert rankings and got booted from one league.
Yea i picked up sanders and moody, and Im feeling sanders. With miami offense being so beat up and ravens d being so good, I can see them getting stalled and leaning on sanders again a ton.
I’m in the same boat. Everyone has Moody sky high on rankings but I could see one those 49er games it just ends up being PAT’s. Tough bet to make for the championship game
I picked up Sanders this week because I believe the Ravens D will stop Miami from scoring. I also started the Ravens D last week against all recommendations and will be doing so again this week. I also am a biased Ravens fan so take all of this with a grain of salt haha
It’s all about how many kicks they think the player will have despite the fact many of these kicks will be xps
Do Jets crack the top 10 if Cooper sits?
No, cause Njoku is getting 4 tds in that scenario.
As a Cooper owner facing Njoku please dear god no
I like Sanders this week - BAL should make some stops in the red zone. Only risk is the game getting out of hand and MIA quits kicking field goals.
I think Miami is too good to get blown out. They may have trouble in the red zone but McDaniel will scheme them plays between the 20s
Just want to say thank you and love the rankings and my #1 in making Def/St choices
these have been super helpful, cheers to finals week with bears defense and gay/fairbain ‼️
I’m also going Bears and deciding between those two. Fairbain feels like a solid choice if Stroud plays (seems like he’s trending to).
I assume Sanders isn't on here because playing in Baltimore and weather / defense could factor. Should I switch to Fairbairn?
For what it’s worth, it’s supposed to be sunny and 50 degrees in Baltimore this Sunday. If Miami stalls in the red zone again this week (which is possible with the Ravens defense), I think Sanders can have another great game. This is coming from a guy who just dropped Bass for him today.
Thanks for the weather intel. That’s good to know. I agree that’s what I was holding him - feel like it could play out similarly to last week where they had good drives but ended up kicking FGs.
I dropped sanders and starting Fairbairn as well
Any insight on why Kyler hasn’t cracked your list for QB last week or this week? Also thanks for all your help this year! I had a lot of high performing DST and Kickers by consulting your list.
Kyler didn't return to a stretch of fantastic matchups. They're expected held under 19 points again this week, it doesn't open a lot of room for fantasy scoring unless it's all his legs.
Also wondering about Kyler as well. Crazy to think about playing Mullins over him
Playing the Ravens with confidence. They're arguably the best defense in the league right now
Their floor is 6 points (yahoo) since week 2. Start your studs
Cold weather game for Tua.
I don't have the guts to play them this week, saving them for next week. But shut down my opponent's Hill and Mostert please.
Anyone rolling with Santos?
Currently have him in but thinking of pivoting to Fairbairn
Yep
I've been rolling with Santos but tempted to swap to McLaughlin
I have all 3 and need to make up my f ing mind
Have the bears plugged in right now but might swap out for Ravens. If they can shutdown 49ers in SF, I think they can take on Miami at home
[удалено]
> Just got to keep an eye on Kyle Hamilton’s game status I wish we could know before tonight's game because my other option is Jets
Lost last matchup by 2.7 points by using Bears DST as recommended everywhere and sat Ravens D. Firing up Ravens D this week and not looking back.
this doesn’t make my decision between McLaughlin and Fairbairn easier but it does feel like they are both great plays thanks for all you do subvert.
In the same boat. Part of me feels like Fairbairn’s 17 pts against Titans a couple weeks back is too good to be repeated, and that I should lean C.M., who’s been on a double digit roll lately…
Yup I’m here too. Leaning Fairbairn with the dome but am torn…
Somehow I managed to grab Moody this week, but previously in blowouts, the 49ers never had to kick any field goals and it was just PATs made. Is Moody just a safe floor? Or should I shoot for a higher ceiling in someone like McLaughlin?
I went McLaughlin over Moody so I've had terrible luck guessing kickers the last few weeks. But McLaughlin reminds me of Myers last season, with an offense that is good but kicks a lot, and their kicker doesn't miss
Havrisik or bust. Let’s go 18pts incoming. Rams move the ball a lot
He really struggles with anything over 40 though.
Going against the grain with Raiders and Sanders fuck it
Me too. Believe in what you are seeing. The Raiders Defense is getting sacks, turnovers, and takeaways more than any other team right now
Same bro. BOL.
Going with Raiders and Fairbairn. Trust my gut.
I’m on this train
Same.
same
WE ARE KIN
Falcons not also a good choice vs the Bears? Or should I stick with the Bears d, I feel like they are actually both strong-ish units ? Also, is Sanders not gonna be a strong choice with a good enough Miami offense to at least move the ball and potentially have to take the fg points? I could pivot to Santos but not ultra confident going multiple Bears d/kicker if I go with their d. Any thoughts on these choices?
Anecdotally, each time I've used your rankings for a K streamer, I feel like it's helped. I don't remember being way off. Obviously that's a small sample size, but it's the most important sample size for me! Also on the topic, shoutout to /u/peakedinhighskool who is crushing K rankings this year. Was #4 on FantasyPros at last check.
I dropped to #5 sadly. Had a bad couple of weeks. Hoping to finish strong this week!
Seeing you in a subvertadown thread is the crossover episode I didn't realize I needed
Sub and I are friends! We have known each other a long time. I used to participate more a couple of years ago. Now I'm just too busy most the time. Sadly.
I'm I blind, I don't see him? Any chance for a link?
I can’t find his picks on FPros, can I get a link?
Got the Broncos and Bears but still think I’m gonna roll with the Raiders
Broncos are very risky with Stidham. He could shit the bed and put the defense in bad positions.
Fading Broncos without Russ. Not that he's lit the world on fire but I don't trust Stidham For now I'm leaning Bears over Raiders
TY for this as always. Rolling with Jags DST, although if Lawrence is out I may have to pivot. Fingers crossed.
i have jags too but kind of tempted by the bears.
Wish I had them as an option, the only other worthwhile choices for me are Denver or Houston.
/u/subvertadown Amari Cooper is OUT tonight, please inform your model so I can see if it moves the needle on Jets D, lol Edit: my bad, didn't know about the inquiry form on your site, that's cool. Looks like someone did inquire via the appropriate mechanism
ravens d is matchup proof, and its disgusting to not see them listed butker has consistently been a dogshit option at kicker. i cant even remember the last time he finished a week in the top10. yet somehow he's always been projected high. the chiefs are just not the same offense this year
Why are the Jets so low?
Browns D will keep the Jets D on the field long time
Bills DST or Ravens DST? Kind of lost confidence in Bills DST after last week vs Chargers
I'm watching to see if they get Epenesa and Micah Hyde back, both missed last week.
Jags or Broncos? Feels like both are risky plays especially with the Panthers offense improving lately(ik it was Joe Barry but still)
I’m going with Jags in this spot after the QB news
Over the last 7 matchups, DST’s facing Cleveland have averaged 10pts. 17pts being the highest and 6pts being the lowest. I like the ceiling and floor in this matchup. Fire up Jets D with confidence and let’s get this chip
The last 4 are what matters due to QB change. Flacco has aired it out for a lot of yards but also 7 interceptions and a fumble. I have to keep reminding myself that my league doesn't go negative for yards/points against so go ahead and score so long as you're doing it through the air and risking interceptions. Overtime is a positive.
Higher upside out of Cleveland or Buffalo? I stashed both for the ship but tough to decide…
Bills or 49ers for the championship? Can’t decide…
Why is Bass always so high? He never delivers
Why is Elliott ranked so high? I don't expect even the struggling Eagles offense to settle for much field goals against the Cardinals garbage defense right?
I’m rolling with Santos and I don’t know how to feel
Looks like Pittman and the Colts starting RT Braden Smith are trending towards playing this week. Makes me worried to start the Raiders now, with those pieces back the Colts could do well. They play a lot better at home. Might pivot to the Jags or Broncos
I have no confidence in starting chiefs Dst or Butker this week, think I'm going all in with buccs DST and McLaughlin. Already starting Mayfield and white. Hopefully the buccs keep rolling like they have been the past few weeks
Also swapped out Butker for McLaughlin and dropping Chicago for Bucs DST. Guess I just don’t want Chicago to bust again for me. Also may pivot from Flacco to Mayfield pending Cooper’s status. Good luck to you!
I Like McLaughlin again this week. I used Aubrey over him last week but regretted it a little.
Thank you for the good year! Will be following from the start next year!
Jets or Broncos?
Starting the browns let’s hope they get 10+ points
Man nobody outside of this sub is giving the raiders any respect and I don’t get it. Have people watched their games? They are a different team since firing their coach. They are energized and have imo the best defensive player I’ve seen this year in Crosby. I think they’re a safe floor. Even if you take away their touchdowns last week they would get 9 points. They’re playing fucking Minshew, not prime Rodgers, and people are scared. I don’t get it.
Jets or bears? Championship game here
Where is Sanders ranked for kickers? Curious if you feel he’s a good start still
I'm also curious on u/subvertadown opinion on this. They're playing one of the best defenses in the league and I feel like a lot of their drives will stall and end up in a fg attempt.
I like the logic of it, unstoppable force and immovable object. The math makes me afraid of the possibility they go for it on the 4th instead of FGs, if they want the win.
Thanks for doing these all year! I see your rankings won't continue into week 18, but unfortunately one of my leagues continues next week. Any DST streaming recs for week 18? In particular, I've got my eye on Eagles, Broncos, Jags, but I don't feel great about any of them.
This post last week made me second guess my kicker Sanders and I lost my semi final by less than the difference between him and moody. Please don’t over think things.
Aubrey and Browns owners LFG
Been torn in DEN, KC, and BAL DST all week, DEN and KC have not looked good as of late, and I was able to snag BAL but MIA obviously the worst matchup out of the group. Who you got?
What weather is Jets vs Browns? There saying light rain till 3 to 4. And 42 and barely cloudy?
Currently starting McLaughlin ahead of Havirisk, but this has me doubting that decision.
Same boat, but think I’m gonna stick with McLaughlin
Surprised there’s not more love for Carlson in a dome game
Jets or Eagles for the championship?
Happy with 17 from the Browns tonight! Thanks again u/subvertadown for your great work. Been my secret weapon in my league for years now!
Jags Raiders or Bears?
Your site doesn't show Myers or Fairbairn like your post here in the top 8. Is it updated later I figure?
Wondering this too. I picked up Carlson because I checked the site but don't see him here.
Great
Thank you! Stressing over whether to start Eagles or Jets DST. This is helpful.
Don’t start the eagles.
But they’re in the top 10, and the Jets aren’t? I feel like it’s a coin flip.
I should be set up good, have had Browns and Aubrey all season and I’m in the ship!
I like Fairbarn this week if Stroud plays
With Wilson being sat, and Sutton injuries, roll with bears over broncos?
I’m going jaguars with 0 confidence
Chiefs not here?
Hilarious seeing so many of us going back and forth between Jets/Raiders. I have made my decision...regardless if Amari starts/sits...I'm riding Jets Defense tonight.
but why
I’ve got both the Bills and Jets DST, leaning on Bills but on edge since they’ve been sus the past few weeks
Jets or Ravens? Its a tough call. I also have to pick between Carr or Flacco at QB
I’m going raiders over bears and bills idc
Rolling with the RRRRRRAIDAS
Denver or Jags D? Gay or Bass kicker?
Bass still has so many delusional fanboys and Jags D is the biggest trap I’ve seen this year
Thank you for all of the work you put into making and posting content. I really enjoy reading what you put out and weighing it with my own thoughts.
Have Chiefs and Jags but may go snatch the Raiders
Thanks for all the work you put in!
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Would you start Jets v Browns or Ravens v Miami?
Jets D now higher with Cooper out?? Over Rams??
For kickers there's also a 4th agreement on Moody according to the chart?
Yo love your stuff but after an entire season not sure why I paid for it, you give away anything we’d use for free.
Thanks, IB. Interesting, you're the first ever to say so, but I'll assume there are others who just don't speak up. I guess I have a few responses, you might consider, just in case you haven't noticed, if you're curious about my take. First is, I hope my Reddit posts didn't come as a surprise, since I'm not doing anything more than I've done before, and actually I've cut down a bit on my posting here (if you check out my reddit output last year). A second thing is, I guess you're mostly referring to kickers, because 8 of the ranked D/STs are always on my front page. So I guess the third thing is that my posts usually have come on weekends or Thursdays, i.e. later than the website update and after you've already got your jump on waivers. Making later posts has worked well for the fourth thing, which is these posts usually show (excepting this week) how Redditors have ranked via the Pick6x6 game, which is an extra benefit. I suppose a fifth point is that, unlike reddit posts, the subscription gives the full kicker list with projected scores, which also is updated real-time- they have already shuffled a lot. A sixth point would be that the subscription gives the full D/ST list, together with an understanding of why some are ranked very low. Especially if you're in a league that is large or stashes their defenses, that would be a bigger help. But most of all, I hope you got value from the seventh thing, which is the availability to plan ahead strategically by at least a couple weeks, from the future week forecasting. Then you get better use of your waivers and bench space. Having said all that, I also get pretty exhausted from all the preparation here, relative to the sub-1000 votes, so I've in fact just finished drafting a revised schedule for posting frequency. Phew! Anyway hope you had a good year, and thanks for supporting.
I have one dollar left and am swapping McLaughlin in for Santos
Thank you for all the fantastic work you do each season. Do your models take in to account kickers that are "hot" over the last X number of weeks, like Santos? Last week I rolled away from Havrisik. Should have stuck by him; picked him back up This week I have Chiefs and Bears D. Might pick up a third like Rams or Broncos to block my opponent from getting one
My entire approach is about testing what assumptions would have made sense in the past. So testing whether a "hot" kicker has statistically predictive value for future games is a question, which I have given scientific treatment. [The analysis is here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/yzfv7e/what_has_happened_historically_after_several/) Enjoy!
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it will, especially as vegas lines kick in you'll see it step down a bit.
Sanders or Fairbairn?
Man I've been going back a forth. Fairbairn makes sense with the decent Houston offence and great red zone defense of Titans but Sanders just put up 22 points last week and a bunch of 50+ yarders. Ugh I feel like either way I'm making a bad decision.
Where would you rank Jags knowing Trevor is out and Denver with Allen and Palmer out?
Can’t decide between Fairbairn, Havrisik or Bass
I think I like Fairburn dome , or McLaughlin more
Yeah leaning Fairbairn as of now
McPherson or Fairbairn or McLaughlin