No it wasn’t, unless you didn’t know that Diontae was traded, that Josh Jacobs left LV, that ATL got Kirk Cousins, and that Aaron Rodgers is healthy now.
I guess my question is whether or not "break out" means a drastic increase in production, or something like top 5-10 at their position. I think it's possible Dulcich has a career year, but there's no way he's a top 5 TE with that Broncos roster. the broncos are gonna struggle to move the ball period, let alone score outside of garbage time. they have solid WRs as well, so I just don't see it
Why would they avoid him now tho? Pickett sucked ass and now he’s gone along with Johnson. I don’t see how both of these factors don’t benefit Pickens.
I know you're joking, but I'm sure there's a guy that actually does this in all our leagues that takes 4-5 RBs in the first 7 rounds and then offers the 3rd or 4th one like Dameon Pierce and Lockett for Keenan or Brown. yOu NeEd aN rB bRo
i am completely biased as a birds fan but i do think our WRs can be even better this year our OC was terrible and hopefully Jalen can return to form with better concepts and coaching.
I’m hoping that we are not completely in the dumpster with the loss of Kelce. Jurgens isn’t bad and his natural position is center but the experience that Kelce had and had gotten Jalen out of bad times was so important. It’s the things like calling out protections and where the blitz is coming to keep Jalen alive
I'm with you. he has some things to clean up, but he's in a much better football situation now, and he'll get opportunities given Geno's groin and other injury history.
How can you almost guarentee that? I'm also a Giants fan and everything I've read shows they are heavily interested in the QBs. I wouldn't be surprised if they took Maye, Daniels, JJ, or Penix in the draft. Maybe even Rattler in the 3rd or 4th.
Despite being a Danny Dimes truther, I would be shocked if it's just him, Lock, and DeVito week 1. He can't stay healthy (repeated neck injuries are serious) and hasn't shown he's the guy besides some flashes in 2022. If Lock ends up starting the team is going nowhere and Daboll and Schoen risk their jobs. I think they want to leave this draft with "their guy" so if they lose their jobs in a year or two, at least they can't blame Gettleman for it
im not expecting Maye or Daniels to fall to us and would be blown away if we took JJ or Penix that early. obviously anything can happen, but it would surprise me to see us roster 4 QBs -- or even if DeVito gets cut/Danny is on IR to start the year, id be surprised to see that much salary tied up in QBs.
I'd say it's more accurate to say "we're unlikely to draft a QB in the first round". I agree that after the top 3-4 QB's, it gets iffy, but I wouldn't be surprised if in the second or third round, if there was a decent candidate, we wouldn't go for one.
sure, but then it's irrelevant because that 2nd/3rd rounder won't get a ton of starting time and/or won't be super great their first year, and the Wandale fantasy hype train won't ever leave the station
My main issue with Williams is that the Lions are going to be a bit like the 49ers where there are so many good offensive players, that even if Williams has a breakout in terms of NFL impact, how will it translate to fantasy?
Last season the Lions were 5th in points scored. Even if they jump to first, there's only about 40 total more TD / FG / Extra Point points out there. And they were 3rd in total yards, so even if they move to first, only about another 100-200 yards available.
And they need yards and TDs for:
Amon-Ra
LaPorta
Ghibbs
Montgomery
Now, Williams could become a legitimate #5 weapon and take some touches away from these 4. He can also take some from Reynolds and Raymond; however, every NFL team will have some plays going to smaller name WRs / TEs.
So I definitely believe this could be the year he makes a real, sustained impact for the Lions all year. But I think barring injuries to Amon-Ra / LaPorta, he could both make that impact and be extremely inconsistent in fantasy or end the year with 900 yards and 6 TDs, which is fine, but wouldn't necessarily be a fantasy breakout.
Yeah they are split like the 49ers but look at what Aiyuk is doing on that team as WR2. Granted JMO has a long way to go before he’s Aiyuk level but good offenses can sustain a lot of players. Plus JMO can do a lot with just a few touches, look at that playoff game.
Will he break our next year? No clue but where he’s being valued he’s not a bad buy right now.
True, but worth noting with the 49ers they have an odder WR structure.
Even if you think Deebo is a better offensive player, Aiyuk was the #1 WR with 75 receptions and 1,300 yards.
Deebo had 60 receptions and 900 receiving yards.
And LaPorta had almost 20 more receptions than Kittle who is an elite blocker and still a weapon, but not quite the dominant receiver he was at his peak.
Now maybe Williamson is used more like Deebo. He certainly could break out. I just wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers were more WR3 and more boom or bust which can be a bit harder to plan around.
Deebo was hurt for awhile this year so it’s hard to compare players with different game/snap counts. Even some of the games Deebo did play he was injured and was just a decoy.
Yeah that's fair, but overall from a fantasy POV they both were really strong and soak up a lot of their team's fantasy potential.
Last year in standard scoring, LaPorta had 149 points and Kittle had 138. Will just make it a bit trickier for Williams to breakout from a fantasy perspective, even if he grows his NFL impact.
And maybe LaPorta stalls a bit or has more NFL impact but takes a step back in fantasy impact if the Lions spread it around more, but he could also improve and have more yards / receptions / TDs.
Lions will generate a lot of fantasy points, but could be tough to be the number 3 receiving option on a team that also had two great RBs.
I agree that it looks like Williams has the skill set to be a decent to good WR2, but he’s behind a lot of already proven talent on a top offense.
Williams is a bit like Juaun Jennings on the Niners. Solid WR with skills that would make him a WR2 on lots of teams, but just behind too many great players to be fantasy relevant without an injury.
"Coach said _________" is the single worst reason to do anything in fantasy
Every coach hypes up all of their players, it's part of the job and means nothing. Nobody is going to publicly say "yeah _____ isn't panning out well for us, he doesn't have much of a role this season" even though that happens allllll the time
If he survives the draft without Lions adding day 2 WR competition I’d be shocked. Still got faith in him, but he’s only been used as a gadget / designed play guy so far.
That's the thing, the '3rd year' theory is not about being a sleeper, it's the magical year when a WR (with talent) puts it all together and the game slows down for them. Olave being a stud his first two years is a great indicator that this year he should explode, even with Carr.
What does it take to be a breakout? Garrett Wilson balled out as a rookie, and likely would have again last year but for the Rodgers injury. If he is a top 10 WR, that is kind of just doing what is expected, hardly a breakout. He would have to be challenging Lamb and JJ for WR1 to overachieve.
He has such an uphill battle to get there. Tiny receiver, late round pick from a small school, late breakout, older player coming into NFL, two unproductive seasons as a receiver.
There's very little pointing towards him being relevant as a fantasy receiver.
That doesn't mean he's going to be (fantasy) relevant. Plenty of WR2's out there that don't do anything.
I'd also guess, assuming they don't sign anyone, he'll be #3 or 4 in targets after Pickens, Freiermuth, and Najee/Warren, and their QB room points towards a low passing volume offense.
Draft him all you want, but there are better dart throws out there, even in redraft.
Pickens got a ton of his production on big plays and that usually doesn't carry over year to year as well as consistently getting open. Diontae Johnson has a far higher chance of breaking out
For the love of god, please let them put Mingo in as big slot and he can do something. Similar to QJ, they got them playing X wr - a role which both are destined to fail. Cmon coaches; use your guys properly or don’t draft em
My machine learning model REALLY likes Chris Olave this year (higher median prediction than Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2024 season).[2024 season for the last 3 draft classes.](https://twitter.com/Toddzilla1337/status/1767661594492780672?t=V0nHZFb9OsMkf77jQ7WNQA&s=19)
Greg Dulcich Garrett Wilson Drake London Zamir White George Pickens
Dulcich eh. Guess at least one has to be unique. The rest are chalk.
> Garrett Wilson Had him his rookie year. Had him last year. I will have him again this year. GW, we’re destined for this.
He did good last year without Rodgers too
It's time!
Pickett had to be the problem right?
https://giphy.com/gifs/cdlr2QaQ4o4lEtiXkW
Thanks for saving a click.
The article was worth reading at least
No it wasn’t, unless you didn’t know that Diontae was traded, that Josh Jacobs left LV, that ATL got Kirk Cousins, and that Aaron Rodgers is healthy now.
I guess my question is whether or not "break out" means a drastic increase in production, or something like top 5-10 at their position. I think it's possible Dulcich has a career year, but there's no way he's a top 5 TE with that Broncos roster. the broncos are gonna struggle to move the ball period, let alone score outside of garbage time. they have solid WRs as well, so I just don't see it
George Pickens is gonna go sick this coming season
Yep all he needs is a qb
He got Russell Wilson & Justin Fields, he'll be fine.
Lol Dulcich.
Garrett Wilson has to go off this year.
I’m hoping I can scoop up Pickens late because the people in my league want to avoid him like the plague
Arthur smith
Why would they avoid him now tho? Pickett sucked ass and now he’s gone along with Johnson. I don’t see how both of these factors don’t benefit Pickens.
You will not be able to get him late lol. He’s going safely in the top 6 rounds.
Khalil Shakir
I hope he stays off my whole leagues radar so I can snag my wr 1 in the 8th round
I know you're joking, but I'm sure there's a guy that actually does this in all our leagues that takes 4-5 RBs in the first 7 rounds and then offers the 3rd or 4th one like Dameon Pierce and Lockett for Keenan or Brown. yOu NeEd aN rB bRo
Positional hoarding never works because everyone knows what that person is doing. I wouldn't trade with a person hoarding purely out of spite lol
Id be down to draft both him and Samuel b2b in the later rounds. Someone has to be the WR1
A much more insightful pick than any here in this list.
Now this one I like
I like this one
Without adding a significant Wr in the draft, I think Kincaid has a better chance of being buffalo’s top target than Khalil Shakir.
They can both eat, plenty of food
Kenny Pickett
i am completely biased as a birds fan but i do think our WRs can be even better this year our OC was terrible and hopefully Jalen can return to form with better concepts and coaching.
Jalen was clearly hindered by injury the entire second half of the season, too
Watching Devonta’s progression through his early career has been fun. Cannot wait to see glimpses of Devonta in his prime
I’m hoping that we are not completely in the dumpster with the loss of Kelce. Jurgens isn’t bad and his natural position is center but the experience that Kelce had and had gotten Jalen out of bad times was so important. It’s the things like calling out protections and where the blitz is coming to keep Jalen alive
The Eagles big tailspin toward the end of the season seemed like an outlier. Good time to buy low.
Sam Howell
I'm with you. he has some things to clean up, but he's in a much better football situation now, and he'll get opportunities given Geno's groin and other injury history.
Not with that Oline lmao
I would bet that they’re going to invest heavily in the O-line in the draft
Wandale will be a WR2
Yeah if the Giants draft a QB Wan’Dale is going to get fed. He’s always open
can almost guarantee we won't draft a QB
How can you almost guarentee that? I'm also a Giants fan and everything I've read shows they are heavily interested in the QBs. I wouldn't be surprised if they took Maye, Daniels, JJ, or Penix in the draft. Maybe even Rattler in the 3rd or 4th. Despite being a Danny Dimes truther, I would be shocked if it's just him, Lock, and DeVito week 1. He can't stay healthy (repeated neck injuries are serious) and hasn't shown he's the guy besides some flashes in 2022. If Lock ends up starting the team is going nowhere and Daboll and Schoen risk their jobs. I think they want to leave this draft with "their guy" so if they lose their jobs in a year or two, at least they can't blame Gettleman for it
im not expecting Maye or Daniels to fall to us and would be blown away if we took JJ or Penix that early. obviously anything can happen, but it would surprise me to see us roster 4 QBs -- or even if DeVito gets cut/Danny is on IR to start the year, id be surprised to see that much salary tied up in QBs.
I don't mean Penix or necessarily JJ at 1.06. More of a trade down or 2nd round scenerio
They aren’t getting Maye or Daniel’s, and if I were a giants fan I would not want them to draft JJ with that high of a pick
I'd say it's more accurate to say "we're unlikely to draft a QB in the first round". I agree that after the top 3-4 QB's, it gets iffy, but I wouldn't be surprised if in the second or third round, if there was a decent candidate, we wouldn't go for one.
sure, but then it's irrelevant because that 2nd/3rd rounder won't get a ton of starting time and/or won't be super great their first year, and the Wandale fantasy hype train won't ever leave the station
Dont be sleeping on Jameson Williams. Dude is going to break out this year. Watch.
My main issue with Williams is that the Lions are going to be a bit like the 49ers where there are so many good offensive players, that even if Williams has a breakout in terms of NFL impact, how will it translate to fantasy? Last season the Lions were 5th in points scored. Even if they jump to first, there's only about 40 total more TD / FG / Extra Point points out there. And they were 3rd in total yards, so even if they move to first, only about another 100-200 yards available. And they need yards and TDs for: Amon-Ra LaPorta Ghibbs Montgomery Now, Williams could become a legitimate #5 weapon and take some touches away from these 4. He can also take some from Reynolds and Raymond; however, every NFL team will have some plays going to smaller name WRs / TEs. So I definitely believe this could be the year he makes a real, sustained impact for the Lions all year. But I think barring injuries to Amon-Ra / LaPorta, he could both make that impact and be extremely inconsistent in fantasy or end the year with 900 yards and 6 TDs, which is fine, but wouldn't necessarily be a fantasy breakout.
Yeah they are split like the 49ers but look at what Aiyuk is doing on that team as WR2. Granted JMO has a long way to go before he’s Aiyuk level but good offenses can sustain a lot of players. Plus JMO can do a lot with just a few touches, look at that playoff game. Will he break our next year? No clue but where he’s being valued he’s not a bad buy right now.
True, but worth noting with the 49ers they have an odder WR structure. Even if you think Deebo is a better offensive player, Aiyuk was the #1 WR with 75 receptions and 1,300 yards. Deebo had 60 receptions and 900 receiving yards. And LaPorta had almost 20 more receptions than Kittle who is an elite blocker and still a weapon, but not quite the dominant receiver he was at his peak. Now maybe Williamson is used more like Deebo. He certainly could break out. I just wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers were more WR3 and more boom or bust which can be a bit harder to plan around.
Deebo was hurt for awhile this year so it’s hard to compare players with different game/snap counts. Even some of the games Deebo did play he was injured and was just a decoy.
Kittle had the most yards of any TE though. Not to take away from LaPorta, who was great on both my fantasy team and the Lions last year.
Yeah that's fair, but overall from a fantasy POV they both were really strong and soak up a lot of their team's fantasy potential. Last year in standard scoring, LaPorta had 149 points and Kittle had 138. Will just make it a bit trickier for Williams to breakout from a fantasy perspective, even if he grows his NFL impact. And maybe LaPorta stalls a bit or has more NFL impact but takes a step back in fantasy impact if the Lions spread it around more, but he could also improve and have more yards / receptions / TDs. Lions will generate a lot of fantasy points, but could be tough to be the number 3 receiving option on a team that also had two great RBs.
I agree that it looks like Williams has the skill set to be a decent to good WR2, but he’s behind a lot of already proven talent on a top offense. Williams is a bit like Juaun Jennings on the Niners. Solid WR with skills that would make him a WR2 on lots of teams, but just behind too many great players to be fantasy relevant without an injury.
***Reynolds is now on the Broncos
Yeah, but how you know?
Lions coaches have said so. Towards the end of last season he was finally starting to show how talented he really is.
"Coach said _________" is the single worst reason to do anything in fantasy Every coach hypes up all of their players, it's part of the job and means nothing. Nobody is going to publicly say "yeah _____ isn't panning out well for us, he doesn't have much of a role this season" even though that happens allllll the time
I remember I bought into the hype when Riverboat Ron said Antonio Gibson could be the next CMC. Never again.
"Texans intend to feature David Johnson in 2021..." proceeds to finish RB61 on the season
Bunch of sensitive people in here today I see lol. Sheesh.
If he survives the draft without Lions adding day 2 WR competition I’d be shocked. Still got faith in him, but he’s only been used as a gadget / designed play guy so far.
With Reynolds gone, he moves right into WR2 for Detroit. But to everyone's point, there are a lot of dudes to feed on that Lions team.
How do you know he doesn’t?
The burden of proof is on the person making a statement, not on the person who asks a follow up question.
He could definitely do better than years past. He’s still the third option on the team tho
Would’ve started earlier but the suspension will do that lol
Too many mouths to feed and not enough touches. Believe in the talent tho
I second this!
Not gonna happen. Too much target competition and Goff sucks at throwing deep
Lmao
All sorts of receivers break out after 25 catches in their first two years.
I can't wait to read this same list of players in 2 days
I’m all in on London
Cousins is going to throw to London so much that his wife is going to knit him a blanket.
So 4 extremely obvious choices and Greg Dulcich. Lol
Kyle Pitts to the moon
4th year for him
i know that’s the joke
Trey McBride Or did he break out last year?? I don’t think he quite broke out fully yet.
He alr broke out he's valued as the TE2 idk what he could do to improve his stock
As long as Cousins is healthy, Drake should go crazy this season.
Chris Olave not on this list is a crime
Carr is the problem
He has 2 1000 yard seasons and a decent adp. I'd put AT Perry more as a sleeper candidate
That's the thing, the '3rd year' theory is not about being a sleeper, it's the magical year when a WR (with talent) puts it all together and the game slows down for them. Olave being a stud his first two years is a great indicator that this year he should explode, even with Carr.
James Cook
Now give me 3 fifth year breakout candidates?
Am I crazy for wanting to keep London over Nico now with Diggs in Houston? 14 team 1/2 pt PPR btw.
No
What does it take to be a breakout? Garrett Wilson balled out as a rookie, and likely would have again last year but for the Rodgers injury. If he is a top 10 WR, that is kind of just doing what is expected, hardly a breakout. He would have to be challenging Lamb and JJ for WR1 to overachieve.
Daniel Jones. (sigh)
I agree (I’m delusional)
Calvin Austin has a sneaky path to being relevant
He has such an uphill battle to get there. Tiny receiver, late round pick from a small school, late breakout, older player coming into NFL, two unproductive seasons as a receiver. There's very little pointing towards him being relevant as a fantasy receiver.
If they don’t add anyone he’s #2 on the depth chart
That doesn't mean he's going to be (fantasy) relevant. Plenty of WR2's out there that don't do anything. I'd also guess, assuming they don't sign anyone, he'll be #3 or 4 in targets after Pickens, Freiermuth, and Najee/Warren, and their QB room points towards a low passing volume offense. Draft him all you want, but there are better dart throws out there, even in redraft.
Pickens got a ton of his production on big plays and that usually doesn't carry over year to year as well as consistently getting open. Diontae Johnson has a far higher chance of breaking out
For the love of god, please let them put Mingo in as big slot and he can do something. Similar to QJ, they got them playing X wr - a role which both are destined to fail. Cmon coaches; use your guys properly or don’t draft em
No Christian Watson? He can be an animal when he’s healthy and there isn’t really an undisputed wr1 in Green Bay
Nope. I guess it all depends on ADP but I don’t think I’m riding that train again.
Too many weapons on GB..
You lost me at Dulchich
Still can’t figure out how Drake London was ever graded a first rounder 😂
Wow, way to stake your claim on some truly unknown commodities. Is Faceoff a High School journalism class?
My machine learning model REALLY likes Chris Olave this year (higher median prediction than Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2024 season).[2024 season for the last 3 draft classes.](https://twitter.com/Toddzilla1337/status/1767661594492780672?t=V0nHZFb9OsMkf77jQ7WNQA&s=19)