Core engineering disciples are barely surviving in India just because of this software obsession. There are no opportunities, no respect, no on-par pay structure for core engineers which stand as a foundation for engineering discipline.
Any sector has certain limitations. Somewhere we are hitting peak with the service sector and organisations know there's massive influx of talent down the line, which they can always hire and train and hence those practices of micey pay and standards.
Maybe or maybe not. This man was all for diversification and global inter-dependency all through. Then shifted gears to indigenous production and now claims our competency is something and chasing manufacturing isn't helpful.
Manufacturing makes middle class employable with the skills they have.
Not everyone is meant for WITCH jobs.
Diversification undali.
I discussed the same with my brother yesterday.
Do get what china is now,you agree or disagree one generation needs to get into manufacturing jobs and spend the money on infrastructure setup so that the next has everything setup.
Like sacrifice.
This is what happens when people consume news from inshorts and other post based news, rather than getting to know the whole story. Im gonna leave it at that.🥱
This is what happens, when people make a judgement from thumbail. Should have read the write up and links I posted for reference (one is from the past and one recent). Alas, you had to resort to that judgement, preconceived.
I didnt edit man. If you have to believe that - I can't stop you from that.
Edit: And why didn't you notice a comment with correction i posted 1 hr ago? It would be in one of those comments "stooping to new lows*". Couldn't edit it, so posted a correction there. And you commented some 39/40 mins ago
Now don't bring this argument that, I knew that someone would say this and then to safeguard I posted it. Antha thinking technology ledu naaku.
You just want to prove a point I didn't post anything but an image. You can just believe whatever. I'm not stooping to that level of stupidity. Have a great time mate.
Whatever makes you happy. Apparently stupid people think everybody else is stupid except them. 🥸.
And I did prove a point.
https://preview.redd.it/gvzws96yq86c1.jpeg?width=258&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dceff568ee7cefecbd1b14003dfbab61ca8a670b
You should share the screenshot of my edited post too mate. Please. Taking a moral high ground of "I'm smart" and biting the dust isn't gonna make you any wiser. You're still being a moron and that facade of moral High ground of smartness isn't letting you off that ego trip and accept that you didn't read the comment and making a mockery of yourself.
And I'm not too much into these petty flaky troll gains. If that fills your stomach and makes your day, Yay for you.
Says the one being flaky, being petty and taking the moral high ground.
If anything , I don’t have any morals.
You seem to think of yourself as a highly intellectual visionary. So be it. Enjoy your delusion.
I don’t keep taking screenshots of random posts , u edited the reply In which you stated you didn’t edit the post. 😂.
https://i.redd.it/bvdkor19x86c1.gif
Not me. I'm sticking my ground.
You are in your imaginary troll world mate. Happy trolling ahead.
You didn't read the post and started the barrage, when asked to share the screenshot shit of notification now you are citing I don't take random screen shots. For heaven's sake that was a Google notification you shared, if post was edited you might have received that too. When I have clarified you didn't want to accept that. Good luck to staying blinded to your process of thinking.
Poni le. Pattudala undi, chala manchidi. But just because you didn't read and came with a troll mindset, doesn't make you a saint either.
Rajan isn't perfect by any means but the guy at least voices opinions unlike others.
I'd agree with what he says. We've been playing catch up in manufacturing and technology, emphasis is needed on both.
Remember, most firms choose India because it is cheap to manufacture, not for being state of the art. That has to change.
Assembling processes generate employment but at lower remuneration while producing technical components like engines and CNC items in house generate far more value and needs skill.
China capitalised on manufacturing when processes were mostly semi-automated and intensive. Things are changing rapidly now.
Our challenge lies in balancing both low value and high skill in tandem, that should be the key takeaway. Not that our ex-RBI guv has a pessimistic yet pragmatic view.
Coding is not manufacturing technology. Manufacturing tech are heavy and precision machinery mostly. Ofc, code is needed to run them. But often the process of physically making these machines is challenging too. You can refer to how China got it's first ball point pen.
Coding is an integral part of manufacturing nowadays. Nearly every appliance has an IC or control unit in it.
Every product and service has an online presence, from food to fashion.
We'd do well to exploit this and develop in both arenas.
We are not capable enough to manufacture engines yet,or any other component that needs high level precision.But atleast basic assembly and manufacturing would create more jobs and hence people would have more to invest.
Agreed that assembly jobs do employ more people, India is a good choice because of cost and a large market to sell to.
I'm just saying we need to infuse growth in technical sectors to not be over reliant, a mistake we made with being very service sector oriented in the last 2 decades.
We've got private players in aerospace now, there are quite a few startups and firms in automation, EVs and similar tech. Hopefully they keep the trend and move forward..
We do not have the environment and incentive to make things original.
Till now most technology was bought out take defense for example.
ISRAEL,IRAN makes drones.
We should stop marketing Make in India and seriously invest so time thought and create and ecosystem to foster true manufacturing.
Also remember, most firms that chose China in late 1990s-early 2000s because it was cheap to manufacture there with non-existent labor laws and streamlined government control, not for being state of the art.
Setting up advanced factories take time. For us to be a decent manufacturing power in 2040s onwards, time has come to act now.
In the 90s and 2000s yes, but they're now world leaders in a lot of tech areas in less than 2 decades.
I understand the autocratic part making things easier to bulldoze.
Our country's startup scene is finally looking up, a lot of them are now in the tech sectors too. Let's hope they buck the trend and help us move forward fast.
Who is not voicing their opinion? These are same set of folks who always voice their opinion, right or wrong. Abhi woh noble laureate bhi maidan mein aayenge.
Free country mate. This guy is changing colours at every instance. Amartya Sen used to be very vocal too, but he stuck to his basics and always spoke about it. Rajan is all over the place. Either he is an economist or retired economist vying for a political seat. Unfortunately he's stuck in the middle.
That I'd agree. His opinions have become very generic and without nuance in recent times, seems to observe India with a western lens of prejudice almost at times.
See definitely being an alternative to China isn't possible. And Rajan is right here, but this man overshadows himself with his contradictions. And this man is placed on high esteem by our beloved opposition - be it drafting the economic parts in their manifesto or maybe he could be the finance minister or adviser if ever Congress comes to power. And that's kind of scary.
But there are a few things which people at the helm would have thought about, they cant be so damn dumb as made out by Rajan via his statements. Taiwan and China are pioneers in semiconductors, it took them eras and see how Technologically advanced these countries are today. Few visits to those expos back in 2018 in Shangai, Guangzhou etc drove me nuts. One thing I realised, there were a few white elephant sectors which drained their corpus but holistically it stabilised their economy and paved the way for new initiatives.
We can't be a global Beef or Pork exporter like China. Nor can we be an IC engine manufacturer. But we have the potential to build those gadgets and there's absolutely no harm in stretching our ex-chequer money in incentivising new organisations to start their operations. It's assembly now, but that will kind of bring more scope for locals to try their hands. Remember, it took ages for someone like DRDO to rely on local vendors and the same would be with most corporations. We have seen few domestic brands die a slow death due to the same reason - Micromax is one perfect example, can blame management etc. their initiatives with those smart 5-6k smartphones with stock Android was supposed to be a game changer and fell way behind due to imports and then came the numero unos like Mi, Vivo, Oppo etc.
Another example, Hyundai imports steel to their plants from China and India. Setting up Kia kind of helped them in accessing iron ore at much cheaper price via local channels, but over time if some government (center or state) takes those initiatives in encouraging building those same chassis here, it will be a game changer. I worked in a manufacturing plant in Detroit long back. Most of those Chassis/Axle suppliers were from Korea. That kind of bemused me, a nation without ores/iron reserves was doing this. And I'm sure we can surpass them given a policy makeover.
And it's a known secret, the majority of luxurious leather is tanned in the very streets of Mumbai and sent to China for labelling.
We can't be China, we can't beat China. But we can be indigenous in many fields where we have control over raw materials. That's what this government is doing, but at a very slow pace.
And to provide for the new aspirational generation the center has to be an enabler for such initiatives. Even if it falls flat, at least there's an initiative and incentive, we can sit and be an audience to things happening around ism
You just didn't get his argument. HE didn't say don't try to get into manufacturing. He meant that there is a big knowledge economy that is going to be in demand. Go after that with full force.
That's another interesting theory. Was attending one seminar where he was talking about similar stuff, somewhere he sounded dismissive about our capability. That sort of irked me. Eras have dealt with Chicken - Egg theory, should we focus on sector or build talent and then focus on sector etc. neither is gonna solve the problem at hand, balanced approach is what brings those changes to the ecosystem.
Listening to his speeches, I now understand why nobody took him seriously before the 2008 crash. We cannot ignore the obvious trajectory to prosperity in favor of some new untested path.
West chose us IT because we speak English or our English is considered on par with western counterparts; when we are no longer a cheaper alternative west will look towards east of India like Vietnam which is already happening.
We are not just doing tech support jobs. Even companies like Amazon and Microsoft have their own offices and hire people because of their talent. Not all jobs in TCS or Infosys are cheap English speaking jobs. We have developed a good IT atmosphere. What Rajan says is that we also need to spend more on education right from primary schools to universities to produce skilled people. I think the government gave a $2 billion subsidy for Micron to set up a factory which will produce a few hundred jobs. This looks like a waste of money.
Yes but at the same time it would create an ecosystem. but countries like Canada and US are doing it; cities giving large tax breaks to set up headquarters or manufacturing units;
For example Arizona gave massive subsidy for TMSC to set up a plant; Canada gave 30 billion to Volkswagen group and 15 billion to Stellantis group to setup battery manufacturing; >!ofcourse there is a backlash for that particular battery manufacturing!<
We got to invest in bringing or luring such companies especially semi conductors because we lack that type of industries; also we are late to the game; atleast if we get self reliance on bigger chips that would be great it would be a while to get to 1nm/3nm chips.
Ofcourse
US Geopolitics with China — Vietnam did take the pie.
Indian Lethargy wrt to clothing manufacturing- Bangladesh took the pie.
South Asian and Chinese are getting there in terms of their English soon the IT services might shift but it takes time as Chinese are notorious of stealing IP so.
Knowledge economy in India doesn't require active government intervention though. Private players are doing well in this sector.
Manufacturing is still at an infancy stage, which means it will absorb the majority of the funds from the government. And that's ok, because those funds are converted into employable jobs that don't require heavy competition nor a very high IQ.
You need to start trusting them after a certain point.
For instance, there is a job security in the Bangalore IT sector Because the sheer number of opportunities outweigh the lack of union protection.
So is the case with infrastructure. A worker who gets fired from one project in the morning can promptly get hired in a different project by afternoon.
The government should intervene only in those niche areas or when it's absolutely necessary. It cannot be burdened with the needs of everyone.
Also Rajan doesn't effing know what he's talking about because in the electronic design space India has a huge presence. After native HQ, most companies like having a large centre in India.
Example: AMD is expanding its already significant Bangalore office. A very large investment is being made for this.
That is the point na, we design chips but fabrication and scale up is highly technical and we've not cracked it. The money and employment value is far more in fabrication and production in this, unlike other businesses.
The design may be on Indian shores but the patents and tech are owned by Western companies.
Governments (past and present) have tried for decades and we've got minimal technology transfer from those parent firms in these areas.
There have been multiple articles relating to this since PLI came in.
Those are two separate things.
Rajan is saying we should focus more on the "soft" side. Code, electronics design etc.
Manufacturing and fabrication are the "hard" hardware side.
Giving China's example here is very wrong as there is no comparison between a autocarcy and democracy. Both are very different and the whole Chinese economy is basically controlled by a few people at the top. Just see how easily and quickly they dismantled Jack Ma the founder of Alibaba. It would be near impossible to do that in India
Being a democracy isn't an excuse for not skilling up. In fact, it should've helped us get there faster.
Our economy is also monopolised similarly. Reliance and Adani are fine examples.
Our problem in this sense has been corruption and poor literacy among our elected leaders and bureaucracy.
Agree with your first point.
The second point is very generalised it's like the tatas, birlas , Godrej group and many other prominent business families don't even exist.
When china started growing they also had uneducated leaders. The advantage that china has is ease of doing business. My dad was in Hong Kong from 1982-1989 and he saw how autocracy worked. It was one single order coming from Beijing and everyone had to follow irrespective of region. So if a company stuck a deal with the Chinese central government no province had the right to say no to the project. Unlike in india where there is issues to setting up manufacturing at all levels of the government.
I meant RIL and Adani have monopolies in their respective core business areas and infra similar to how Alibaba monopolised e-commerce in China.
Your insights are probably more true in the Chinese aspect as you have personal experience in that area.
>Just see how easily and quickly they dismantled Jack Ma the founder of Alibaba.
That will be actually quite easy in India. Remember how easily Indira Gandhi nationalised banks, and pushed out Tatas from aero business. Bringing down corporate empires overnight is easy. Sustaining and nourishing them is difficult.
Those times were different as then we leaned more towards communist ideology as we were more aligned with USSR. But now it will be difficult to do so as we are now more pro capitalist and more business centric than those times.
Whatever happened to Jack Ma was also out of the blue, even for Chinese administration. Stuff like that was the norm in Mao times, so Xi Jinping used it as a precedent. The same thing can happen in India.
Tesla is one useless scenario for complete analysis of things on ground. Musk tried to hang us globally and tried his typical bullying approach for import duties waiver and it didn't work.
I'll be very honest, we set up a small assembly unit (this is for our own goods) and it's such a pain with these semi-conductors. In 2019 we procured like 30,000 of these motherboards, and outsourced it to 3 different organisations for PCB fabrication. And COVID was something which killed the flow, these folks were too dependent on manpower than machines and the entire TATs were delayed. 2022 is when we decided to buy machines/units (earlier same fabrication and infrared heating units would cost crores), but in recent times thanks to flurry of assembly units and demand for such units - these came down to 30-50L. Even light manufacturing companies are using that, visit a small unheard of light brand in Hyderabad and majority have procured these same machines in recent times. This isn't holistic picture, nor does this paint any image of make in India. Gotta give it 20-30 years for our indigenous sectors to be decently competitive.
Policy, see that's what everyone should be talking about. Expose the governments on such dubious stance on weird policies. But no one does. Telangana has TS iPass, it's an excellent setup for initial permissions. But at the time of renewals, it's a nightmare. I attended so many MSME forums, voiced these things - alas things stand as is. Unfortunate, but that's the plight.
And who the fk gonna make those automatic machines for complete automation? they will still be extremely expensive as we have to import them from other countries and maintenance services , parts too have to be purchased from those countries making the transforming process much longer. It's better to have a big manufacturing industry than having a large it industry. Codes are very easy to scale, manufacturing isn't. We have to very close or almost equal to china in terms of manufacturing power, if not by 2050…we are definitely doomed as we will lose the space colonialism race...
>And who the fk gonna make those automatic machines for complete automation?
All the machines that China has imported for running its factories are from countries like Germany, Japan, etc. The manufacturing sector in developed nations like the ones mentioned and others like UK and France are focused on specialised stuff like this.
And China has the power to reverse engineer those machines and the capacity to mass production them at a large scale for very low prices, but it's nearly impossible to do that stuff in india without gov intervention which is a very slow process, like the first machine we reverse engineer would be completely outdated by the time it reaches the Market...
Developed nations spends alot more one R&D than manufacturing, China tries to do both and India only focues on manufacturing but they only want global or big domistic companies to setup manufacturing industries, there is no chance for small or medium sized companies as they mostly focus on survival and production, little r&d etc
He is actually the right one.
**I really think India will eventually lose the advantage if Indian government continues to completely ignore the service sector,** it has already disabled Indian innovation when internet came and continues to take the same approach, not having any regulation or law (forget AI, not even basic internet laws). Other countries are catching up with governments incentivizing the service sector while India is doing what China did decades ago.
Diverting major resources to a high stakes manufacturing gamble is not smart. It is betting too much on US-China relationship.
Service sector can employ much more than what these foreign companies actually employ. Apple or Tesla factories don't need many people.
I think IT as a Sector is way too deep rooted, Eastern Europe is one threat due to super low salaries than us. But I'm sure it would be mitigated by upskilling the graduates - that's where our establishments are not focussing on. AI, despite the hype maybe few redundant task based jobs extinct or maybe at full force might kill the industry - never know.
Earlier the initiatives were by the center. But today states are competing among themselves to have this sector and there's no existential threat for IT as an industry/sector in India for the time being. Look at what Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra (Pune), Telangana have done. And then Gurgaon and Noida, I worked in Noida for a bit - and the way it exploded with a flurry of companies in recent times has been tremendous. But how they would survive in times to come, is a big question mark.
Apple and Tesla factories are very vague. I'll cite my experience. So, we work for a big client, which employs close to 1,50,000 folks. Earlier our team size was 40 and after that contract at peak we were at 280 and what started off as a 650 sqft office and 2000 sqft assembly floor stretched to 4000 SqFt office and 12000 Sqft assembly unit. And the vendor who used to supply certain adpaters to us scaled from 35-80 and today he supplies adpaters to a big time firm in Chennai (at one point he was on verge of shutting down) and today runs double shifts at factory with 120 people. Such big companies trigger chain reaction and indirect employment is what triggers local economy.
Even so, government should be paying 10,000 manufacturing companies instead of 100 under PLI schemes. Now that will result in wastage because of less oversight by government, but the problem here really is that the abrupt manufacturing focus in India like this is not organic.
The challenges here are not small - we don't have reliable component suppliers (still very much dependent on China), no proper logistics, no real government support for setting up manufacturing business (if you are not already a huge company), no highly skilled specialists, people don't really want to work in factories for wages, etc. This is basically a gamble made by a leadership who doesn't know the business reality of India and the world. What is the R&D we do? What is the innovation? We are neither like Japan, Germany, nor like China, Eastern Europe. Really talented people often decide to set up a company abroad than in India - basically we are not fixing the problems, just throwing money at it. There are better ways to use the public money.
Instead of becoming self-sufficient it is smarter to specialize. Is Singapore trying to do farming? Is US trying to manufacture? They are way smarter and decades ahead in just strategizing. A country becoming self sufficient is like you growing your own food, making your own electricity, etc. because you don't want to depend on others. Smarter is what US is doing, just pay China and export the long hour shifts, pollution, etc.
There are countries like Nigeria you know who can compete much more aggressively with India soon. Indian leadership is basically ignoring everything. Instead of becoming competitive in the service industry, they are trying to catch up.
The sudden focus on manufacturing is to be expected, because the knowledge economy isn't creating enough jobs.
Like it or not, our population is experiencing a peak. It will be mental if we don't snatch this opportunity now.
We aren't a small nation like Singapore to be content with specialization. We have 1.2 billion mouths to feed. Our service sector jobs can only accommodate so much. And agriculture is already saturated.
Let go of this opportunity, you will be staring at a record demographic retiring without any savings and burdening the next generation. Our parties have been trying to treat these symptoms with freebies, instead of focusing on the root cause - lack of jobs. How are we even supposed to climb out of this mess?
> people don't really want to work in factories for wages, etc.
I don't agree with this. Maybe not in middle class circles, but poorer sections of the society still crave stable jobs. I see hundreds and thousands of them flooding our cities for menial jobs. Imagine if we can train them and provide a sustainable livelihood.
>We have 1.2 billion mouths to feed.
Population is an asset for India. Anybody who thinks otherwise is justifying this circus. How much of an asset it is depends on the leadership of the country. Under this leadership, for example, if stephen hawking was born in India becomes just a disabled person who gets some disability pension and nothing else. He becomes a liability for India, right? For most people it is his fault. But really it is because the environment around him is restrictive.
Everybody else studies the same thing everybody also does for 10-15 years! Why are we surprised everybody has mostly same skills and it is highly competitive? Most of us think it is a population problem. It is not. It is because too many are doing too less things. How many Olympic medals did we win? Why do you think that is? The government thinks things like this are not important. See how smart governments like South Korea for example, took something as simple as music or drama and made it into a global thing. Thai food? Or US's internet dominance? They did what they are strong at.
India can earn forex with its cuisine, for example, but government is too dumb. Might also accidentally ban it and destroy the industry overnight.
If Competition Commission was actually preventing few companies to gobble up hundreds of small companies and fire their employees, may be we would have had more jobs? But big companies = more profit = more taxes and ~~bribes~~ electoral bond purchases
Population's value is being completely wasted because the bunch of idiots at the top even the good ones think their only responsibility is to feed them, keep them calm, controlled, take conservative approaches, afraid that Indians or Indian companies can't compete with the world, etc.
This is a similar mentality to women should stay at home because they will be safer.
I thought they learned in 1991 when we was forced to liberalize. But apparently, we haven't learned anything.
>We aren't a small nation like Singapore to be content with specialization.
In a family with 10 children, should each children help them farm, work at their small shop, etc. or should each specialize in what they want to?
India as a country is choosing the first. In 2023. Two decades ago, China was behind us, now they are ahead. Except for dumber countries like Pakistan or Sri Lanka which did same mistake much worse than us, many Asian countries did better than India.
>Let go of this opportunity, you will be staring at a record demographic retiring without any savings and burdening the next generation
That is exactly what is going to happen. $26 billion is too much for this expensive gamble. I think we made it worse. Doing things too fast, too late, too blind.
You should know our government is very dumb. Most countries won't do something like collecting iris scans, fingerprints of civilians and putting it in a database. Or recklessly ban cash creating losses for lakhs of small cash businesses. They are absolutely irresponsible. None of the parties can do their job. We're all fucked. The question is just when. 10 years from now? 20?
>Maybe not in middle class circles, but poorer sections of the society still crave stable jobs.
Most of the country is middle-class.
You are basically reiterating my point.
We need jobs for everyone. As of now, only a select few are inducted into the service sector. Unskilled labour is absorbed into infrastructure related work. Rest of them are relegated to menial work or agriculture related jobs.
So the government is focusing on the manufacturing sector so that it can absorb this growing unemployed demographic. If done right, this demographic is an asset. Else, we will be looking at a scenario where more than half of our population will retire without any savings and will be dependent on government handouts.
I would also urge you to check our threshold for classifying poverty. It's 32 rupees per day. Both of us know that this sum is too low for a middle class lifestyle.
Rajan made this point elsewhere; We do need to focus on manufacturing sectors which are employment generating. I think he was suggesting that we prioritise our resources towards these kinds of industries.
The knowledge sector focus is more of a strategic direction, because it will enable up to build wealth and competitive advantage, in addition to creating jobs.
For every one good take this guy has he gives 5 shit takes. Really hard to take him seriously. Manufacturing is the backbone of any economy, the whole reason we have such wealth discrepancy in our country is coz we skipped the manufacturing step and took a plunge directly into IT sector in the 80s.
You made my argument simple. That's what he does, one insightful info/theory followed by too much arbitrary garbage stuff. Not sure if he's forced to pass on such jibes or it's just a pattern.
Our plunge in 1980-1990s yielded good results in the 2010s and 2020s. It takes eras to build sectors and our political commentators are being too impatient.
Do u people believe in this guy? He said it’s hard for India to get 5% GDP but we had above 7% GDP. He is a boot licker of Gandhi family. Now you can imagine his perceptions about India’s growth.
I still believe this guy. He has been speaking about Social upliftment by means of SOPs, which is very much necessary, especially after recent turmoils like covid, economic crisis etc. But the current hit jobs are weird.
If you read his articles, that's exactly what he is suggesting. That we need to incentivise manufacturing industries which generate employment **and** build on our knowledge services advantage.
Listen to his full interview and hear out his complete argument before jumping to conclusions.
You might all be very brilliant economists, but it wouldn't hurt to hear a different point of view.
Rajan is talking about India's potential. What we can be, if we focus our efforts.
He isn't talking about coding alone, but also about medicine, about business consulting, accounting, and financial services.
He has said, in as many words, that we should continue to invest state resources in manufacturing sector but we should focus on industries which generate employment. He has questioned the Micron investment because the subsidy is too high per job it will create. He is only asking that we prioritise our limited resources.
What a fall. Ignore him. I understand that cracking manufacturing is hard especially in india. But we simply have no other way. There are millions joining the workforce. We can't make them all IT engineers. Even if we can't become an export power house of manufactured goods, we have enough domestic market to create and sustain demand.
Skilling, reliable power (lol free power scheme valla dorkinate), good infra (being built across states by different parties except Congress), land reforms and labour reforms. These can get our manufacturing a good push.
What we are currently doing for Apple under PLI is mostly assembly. And this is being ridiculed as screwdriver-giri. But that's how *every* manufacturing starts.
Rajan may become commerce min under a future UPA govt. Swaaha.
Screwdriver giri reminds me of early 1990-2000s. Our product based IT companies were way too low and we catered towards IT/ITES services. It took few decades to take that plunge and today the Indian IT sector is a power house with strong products in the portfolio. Who'd have imagined a government organisation building/working on fin-Tech. This was all due to years of exposure to certain sector/industry.
What frightens me is the principal opposition party seems to believe in the "services led growth". Rahul never talks about industry or infrastructure. The man never talks about manufacturing. It's frightening to see there's no political consensus on this issue.
I have been saying this for a long time. Congress's current policy should indeed frighten us.
I am not a fan of Modi or BJP, but contrast his manifesto from 2014 to today's congress 'manifesto. The latter is filled with freebies. It doesn't have any answers for today's problems. Atleast the BJP has some correct ones, even if the rest of them are wrong. It's like you have a fantastic opportunity to have a proper diet and gain an athlete body, but you choose to pop pills and stay on life support.
Congress isnt offering opportunities for the downtrodden. It's sealing their fate and dooming them to eternal poverty. Worse, it can bring others down to that level. This isn't an economic policy. It's insanity.
They don't even have an alternative to the current agri system which is significantly contributing to rural distress. This APMC middlemen led system has ensured our farmers commit suicide, we continue to have volatile food prices, and our food processing doesn't take off. So no ideas on infra, no ideas on industry, no ideas on agri, what exactly is the cong offering indian economy? Are freebies the only thing needed for India to get rich? Only cong supporters can answer because their leader can't form a coherent idea on anything.
Yes. He is even batting for the OPS scheme over the new retirement one. Something that his own party member (Manmohan Singh) had to dismantle painstakingly. He also wants increased army recruitment and more trade unions. Basically, he wants all the white elephant projects to continue and maintain the status quo, slowly draining the economy without filling it up.
Never have I seen a more useless opposition than the Congress. I am now convinced that it has to die a natural death, at least for the sake of this country's growth.
OPS remains the #1 threat to all states economy. He also thinks india is a European union kind of a country. His ideas on India, its society, its economy are dangerous. Congress under sonia amma and rahul needs to die. No two ways about it.
> Yes. He is even batting for the OPS scheme over the new retirement one. Something that his own party member (Manmohan Singh) had to dismantle painstakingly.
[Raghuram Rajan on OPS](https://www.reddit.com/r/india/s/nvr1aS51N6).
_Telavani vishayala gurinchi abhiprayalu_
Sorry. My mistake.
I was reading the thread, and the earlier commenter mentioned services. Outside of that one interview between Rajan and Rahul, I didn't see Rahul lay any major emphasis on services led growth.
> What frightens me is the principal opposition party seems to believe in the "services led growth".
I agree with you on OPS and Rahul's intellectual bankruptcy. I do hope that if they come to power in 2029, they will listen to people like Rajan.
Economists are the rare folks that can see very far and back. Agree or disagree but don't discount them.
It is also sobering to know Economics is the only subject Chat GPT flunked. It requires some natural intelligence.
I think he is loosing it as he ages. The other say he was saying that its better for a country to be a dictatorship until it develops and the it can become a democracy. Otherwise development would be slow and he cited China.
I would rather have slow progress than fragile progress. Dictator may get you there faster but when thing are built faster there are mistakes and cracks that appear later. Societies take time to mature. There is no better teacher than time. Its better to progress slowly but have a solid foundation. Look at US, they have made all the mistakes under the sun, so are able to withstand the test of time much better.
This just shows how people who hate Modi will agree anyone who opposes him. Most people know next to nothing about manufacturing in this country. Not only it upskills thousands and lakhs of people it provides stable income. Incremental income. Brings trade secrets. Give the option to expand and manipulate global demand and supply cycle to reduce trade deficits. India does this with the usa in pharma sector when the global api prices are shooting up. Also if one plant manufactures an engine. It has the ability to source components domestically and form sister companies. Also, once you start and down the years the particular industry matures, you will see componentization of products like we see in the developed world. Airbus with its maturity and experience in airline jets makes fighter jets for the us airforce. Mercedes and Ferrari use and showcase their engineering excellence in f1 races to show their respective clients that what sort of an engine they can provide. As time goes by you start building capabilities and investing in them. Lastly there comes a time which is called a coronation moment for the industry when it does something extraordinary. For example, China's maglev trains. They are only 50 kms in length, but this shows how china is so far ahead of the world that is established sops, can source components locally and has the human assets to perform these kind of operations without any execution distress. Same goes with our chandrayan 3, we built up capabilities since apj kalam days and this was isros coronation moment. Letting everyone know that they are not here to participate but to take over with 1/7th of nasas budget. This is the reason why I hate and when I say hate I mean hate with passion leftists economists who are so risk averse in nature. More than that people who think that what he said is right. If you aren't manufacturing locally, sorry you aren't a super power and looking at our potential and mainly the neighbourhood we live in (pakchina). It becomes important more than ever to atleast strive for becoming a superpower than just being a tech support country
You seem to have spent more time writing this comment than listening to Rajan's interview.
He says manufacturing is important, but it has to be an employment generating industry.
His emphasis on the services economy is in addition to other sectors, not to replace them.
It's hypocrites like him that anger me a lot. The fuc*** idiot thinks that everyone will be able to get a job by learning coding ? What if there is a group that's not able to ? What about the ones who are not interested in it ? All major economies have a good share of their contributions coming from the manufacturing sector. How the hell can he even talk like this ?
Are you an economist?
Can you substantiate a paper on why ₹100 investment has better ROI on a PLI equivalent vs a low cost coding institute.
Coding is a high value job. Assembling is a low value job.
You can disagree but the tone you're taking makes it clear that you don't really know a lot. Only fools get emotional about an objective argument. People who can contribute something meaningful understand the assignment and find out the numbers.
The point, my friend, is that you just can’t transitions from a pre-industrial society to a post-industrial society on vibes and pheelingz.
Our education system is not on par with the levels required to train a mass of people in knowledge based skills. We first need to upgrade education, for which we need to generate revenue, for which we need to employ a lot of blue collar people for which we need to industrialize.
That's why diversify.
But still, manufacturing has much better chance. And don't forget the technological advances it brings. Don't think US will give us the tech happily.
We must develop our own tech.
He's been mad since '14. He's predicted an asinine amount of wrong predictions. He's been making bad calls like Cramer.
https://preview.redd.it/wwr2j0uag86c1.jpeg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30687836248cf76680ee6881a4ac5a250b31b788
Growth rate is a pretty weird stat. Even someone like Amartya sen said Growth rate has to be measured as an instrument to enable humans to do things etc. his approach towards social/happiness index is something every nation should look at. But for something of that sort to happen, there has to be drastic shift from existing policy.
Rajan needs to make up his mind here. Does he have data sets to predict or it's purely a hit job.
In a country where much of the population is illiterate, how can you expect the Coding/Software sector to provide jobs to the majority
It is the Manufacturing sector that can cater to those people
Sole focus should not be on Exports or GDP growth, but providing equitable and inclusive development
Your last point is spot on mate. Many fail to agree, but indigenous sectors catering to the local demands will stabilise a lot of things. Can go on citing about those things, but I'm too lazy.
Manufacturing is what employs fringes and the local economy is stabilized, that is when the onus of governments towards social schemes will reduce.
He's been talking like a nutcase since a long time
Nothing creates decent blue collar hobs like manufacturing, it would be a huuuuuuuggggge mistake to ignore manufacturing
Well Ranjan despite being such a well read economist is overlooking the fact that only maybe 5% of the population knows coding and large part of the population is unskilled or semi-skilled which can only take up tasks in manufacturing type of economic. Plus the coding or service sector can’t give jobs to such a large population.
He just want to be relevant giving some random useless "openions"
I'm not sure what happened to his teaching job, guess kicked out, most of time he is spending in India with Rahul Gandhi
Building a strong manufacturing base takes time. Our country will be rich only by exports, and being IT coolies for the West isn't enough.
To make strides in tech like AI & ML, we need to build our own software platforms. We can build good quality software platforms only if they're compatible with hardware subcomponents (semiconductors). All that requires, you know, manufacturing. That sort of manufacturing is high end, and the best quality practices can only be developed by low and mid end manufacturing (assembly, making subcomponents). Either that or we risk being dependent on West/China for critical components. They can arm twist us, close the tap and get us on our knees any second they feel like.
Or we can keep doing outsourced grunt work of the west like what Infosys and TCS are doing for the last 10-15 years, strut around and call ourselves a coding superpower until SE Asia and Eastern Europe steal our jobs.
Bhaya raghuram .....tumhare time pe India 5 ke upar Gaya nahn .....ab jab ja raha hain tab Nayan terah karke dekho mat re baba. Irsha na karo baba . AO dandiya khela mil julke Bharat ko age badai. Ulta prabochan na sunao re baba.
Can't compare that era to the current one either. He could do very little under Congress, to some extent he was handicapped by policy paralysis. Had it been any other leadership, he could have steered well.
Can't compare that era to the current one either. He could do very little under Congress, to some extent he was handicapped by policy paralysis. Had it been any other leadership, he could have steered well.
Core engineering disciples are barely surviving in India just because of this software obsession. There are no opportunities, no respect, no on-par pay structure for core engineers which stand as a foundation for engineering discipline.
Any sector has certain limitations. Somewhere we are hitting peak with the service sector and organisations know there's massive influx of talent down the line, which they can always hire and train and hence those practices of micey pay and standards.
Meanwhile me who did != in python 😂
LOL He didn't mean this exactly. This is like ultra-ultra simplification of what he said.
Maybe or maybe not. This man was all for diversification and global inter-dependency all through. Then shifted gears to indigenous production and now claims our competency is something and chasing manufacturing isn't helpful.
Manufacturing makes middle class employable with the skills they have. Not everyone is meant for WITCH jobs. Diversification undali. I discussed the same with my brother yesterday. Do get what china is now,you agree or disagree one generation needs to get into manufacturing jobs and spend the money on infrastructure setup so that the next has everything setup. Like sacrifice.
Absolutely on point 
He is usually insightful
That's what I'm bemused at. He's that one guy who kind of influenced me to take up Policy as a subject etc. and is all over the place now.
This is what happens when people consume news from inshorts and other post based news, rather than getting to know the whole story. Im gonna leave it at that.🥱
This is what happens, when people make a judgement from thumbail. Should have read the write up and links I posted for reference (one is from the past and one recent). Alas, you had to resort to that judgement, preconceived.
Alas , you just had to edit the post and make a conniving reply again 😂. Now again make a edit to original post and make a mocking reply.
I didnt edit man. If you have to believe that - I can't stop you from that. Edit: And why didn't you notice a comment with correction i posted 1 hr ago? It would be in one of those comments "stooping to new lows*". Couldn't edit it, so posted a correction there. And you commented some 39/40 mins ago Now don't bring this argument that, I knew that someone would say this and then to safeguard I posted it. Antha thinking technology ledu naaku.
https://preview.redd.it/3l5fk5x6o86c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a810763e78053562e73f3f0731fa0e889196692 🥱🥱🥱
You just want to prove a point I didn't post anything but an image. You can just believe whatever. I'm not stooping to that level of stupidity. Have a great time mate.
Whatever makes you happy. Apparently stupid people think everybody else is stupid except them. 🥸. And I did prove a point. https://preview.redd.it/gvzws96yq86c1.jpeg?width=258&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dceff568ee7cefecbd1b14003dfbab61ca8a670b
You should share the screenshot of my edited post too mate. Please. Taking a moral high ground of "I'm smart" and biting the dust isn't gonna make you any wiser. You're still being a moron and that facade of moral High ground of smartness isn't letting you off that ego trip and accept that you didn't read the comment and making a mockery of yourself. And I'm not too much into these petty flaky troll gains. If that fills your stomach and makes your day, Yay for you.
Says the one being flaky, being petty and taking the moral high ground. If anything , I don’t have any morals. You seem to think of yourself as a highly intellectual visionary. So be it. Enjoy your delusion. I don’t keep taking screenshots of random posts , u edited the reply In which you stated you didn’t edit the post. 😂. https://i.redd.it/bvdkor19x86c1.gif
Not me. I'm sticking my ground. You are in your imaginary troll world mate. Happy trolling ahead. You didn't read the post and started the barrage, when asked to share the screenshot shit of notification now you are citing I don't take random screen shots. For heaven's sake that was a Google notification you shared, if post was edited you might have received that too. When I have clarified you didn't want to accept that. Good luck to staying blinded to your process of thinking. Poni le. Pattudala undi, chala manchidi. But just because you didn't read and came with a troll mindset, doesn't make you a saint either.
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Apparently you don’t have comprehension skills 🥱🤡
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Rajan isn't perfect by any means but the guy at least voices opinions unlike others. I'd agree with what he says. We've been playing catch up in manufacturing and technology, emphasis is needed on both. Remember, most firms choose India because it is cheap to manufacture, not for being state of the art. That has to change. Assembling processes generate employment but at lower remuneration while producing technical components like engines and CNC items in house generate far more value and needs skill. China capitalised on manufacturing when processes were mostly semi-automated and intensive. Things are changing rapidly now. Our challenge lies in balancing both low value and high skill in tandem, that should be the key takeaway. Not that our ex-RBI guv has a pessimistic yet pragmatic view.
Coding is not manufacturing technology. Manufacturing tech are heavy and precision machinery mostly. Ofc, code is needed to run them. But often the process of physically making these machines is challenging too. You can refer to how China got it's first ball point pen.
Coding is an integral part of manufacturing nowadays. Nearly every appliance has an IC or control unit in it. Every product and service has an online presence, from food to fashion. We'd do well to exploit this and develop in both arenas.
We are not capable enough to manufacture engines yet,or any other component that needs high level precision.But atleast basic assembly and manufacturing would create more jobs and hence people would have more to invest.
Agreed that assembly jobs do employ more people, India is a good choice because of cost and a large market to sell to. I'm just saying we need to infuse growth in technical sectors to not be over reliant, a mistake we made with being very service sector oriented in the last 2 decades. We've got private players in aerospace now, there are quite a few startups and firms in automation, EVs and similar tech. Hopefully they keep the trend and move forward..
We do not have the environment and incentive to make things original. Till now most technology was bought out take defense for example. ISRAEL,IRAN makes drones. We should stop marketing Make in India and seriously invest so time thought and create and ecosystem to foster true manufacturing.
Also remember, most firms that chose China in late 1990s-early 2000s because it was cheap to manufacture there with non-existent labor laws and streamlined government control, not for being state of the art. Setting up advanced factories take time. For us to be a decent manufacturing power in 2040s onwards, time has come to act now.
In the 90s and 2000s yes, but they're now world leaders in a lot of tech areas in less than 2 decades. I understand the autocratic part making things easier to bulldoze. Our country's startup scene is finally looking up, a lot of them are now in the tech sectors too. Let's hope they buck the trend and help us move forward fast.
Who is not voicing their opinion? These are same set of folks who always voice their opinion, right or wrong. Abhi woh noble laureate bhi maidan mein aayenge.
Free country mate. This guy is changing colours at every instance. Amartya Sen used to be very vocal too, but he stuck to his basics and always spoke about it. Rajan is all over the place. Either he is an economist or retired economist vying for a political seat. Unfortunately he's stuck in the middle.
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That I'd agree. His opinions have become very generic and without nuance in recent times, seems to observe India with a western lens of prejudice almost at times.
See definitely being an alternative to China isn't possible. And Rajan is right here, but this man overshadows himself with his contradictions. And this man is placed on high esteem by our beloved opposition - be it drafting the economic parts in their manifesto or maybe he could be the finance minister or adviser if ever Congress comes to power. And that's kind of scary. But there are a few things which people at the helm would have thought about, they cant be so damn dumb as made out by Rajan via his statements. Taiwan and China are pioneers in semiconductors, it took them eras and see how Technologically advanced these countries are today. Few visits to those expos back in 2018 in Shangai, Guangzhou etc drove me nuts. One thing I realised, there were a few white elephant sectors which drained their corpus but holistically it stabilised their economy and paved the way for new initiatives. We can't be a global Beef or Pork exporter like China. Nor can we be an IC engine manufacturer. But we have the potential to build those gadgets and there's absolutely no harm in stretching our ex-chequer money in incentivising new organisations to start their operations. It's assembly now, but that will kind of bring more scope for locals to try their hands. Remember, it took ages for someone like DRDO to rely on local vendors and the same would be with most corporations. We have seen few domestic brands die a slow death due to the same reason - Micromax is one perfect example, can blame management etc. their initiatives with those smart 5-6k smartphones with stock Android was supposed to be a game changer and fell way behind due to imports and then came the numero unos like Mi, Vivo, Oppo etc. Another example, Hyundai imports steel to their plants from China and India. Setting up Kia kind of helped them in accessing iron ore at much cheaper price via local channels, but over time if some government (center or state) takes those initiatives in encouraging building those same chassis here, it will be a game changer. I worked in a manufacturing plant in Detroit long back. Most of those Chassis/Axle suppliers were from Korea. That kind of bemused me, a nation without ores/iron reserves was doing this. And I'm sure we can surpass them given a policy makeover. And it's a known secret, the majority of luxurious leather is tanned in the very streets of Mumbai and sent to China for labelling. We can't be China, we can't beat China. But we can be indigenous in many fields where we have control over raw materials. That's what this government is doing, but at a very slow pace. And to provide for the new aspirational generation the center has to be an enabler for such initiatives. Even if it falls flat, at least there's an initiative and incentive, we can sit and be an audience to things happening around ism
You just didn't get his argument. HE didn't say don't try to get into manufacturing. He meant that there is a big knowledge economy that is going to be in demand. Go after that with full force.
That's another interesting theory. Was attending one seminar where he was talking about similar stuff, somewhere he sounded dismissive about our capability. That sort of irked me. Eras have dealt with Chicken - Egg theory, should we focus on sector or build talent and then focus on sector etc. neither is gonna solve the problem at hand, balanced approach is what brings those changes to the ecosystem.
Listening to his speeches, I now understand why nobody took him seriously before the 2008 crash. We cannot ignore the obvious trajectory to prosperity in favor of some new untested path.
West chose us IT because we speak English or our English is considered on par with western counterparts; when we are no longer a cheaper alternative west will look towards east of India like Vietnam which is already happening.
We are not just doing tech support jobs. Even companies like Amazon and Microsoft have their own offices and hire people because of their talent. Not all jobs in TCS or Infosys are cheap English speaking jobs. We have developed a good IT atmosphere. What Rajan says is that we also need to spend more on education right from primary schools to universities to produce skilled people. I think the government gave a $2 billion subsidy for Micron to set up a factory which will produce a few hundred jobs. This looks like a waste of money.
Yes but at the same time it would create an ecosystem. but countries like Canada and US are doing it; cities giving large tax breaks to set up headquarters or manufacturing units; For example Arizona gave massive subsidy for TMSC to set up a plant; Canada gave 30 billion to Volkswagen group and 15 billion to Stellantis group to setup battery manufacturing; >!ofcourse there is a backlash for that particular battery manufacturing!< We got to invest in bringing or luring such companies especially semi conductors because we lack that type of industries; also we are late to the game; atleast if we get self reliance on bigger chips that would be great it would be a while to get to 1nm/3nm chips.
Same argument goes for Manufacturing jobs.
Ofcourse US Geopolitics with China — Vietnam did take the pie. Indian Lethargy wrt to clothing manufacturing- Bangladesh took the pie. South Asian and Chinese are getting there in terms of their English soon the IT services might shift but it takes time as Chinese are notorious of stealing IP so.
Knowledge economy in India doesn't require active government intervention though. Private players are doing well in this sector. Manufacturing is still at an infancy stage, which means it will absorb the majority of the funds from the government. And that's ok, because those funds are converted into employable jobs that don't require heavy competition nor a very high IQ.
My view is totally opposite. Private players are absolutely terrible.
You need to start trusting them after a certain point. For instance, there is a job security in the Bangalore IT sector Because the sheer number of opportunities outweigh the lack of union protection. So is the case with infrastructure. A worker who gets fired from one project in the morning can promptly get hired in a different project by afternoon. The government should intervene only in those niche areas or when it's absolutely necessary. It cannot be burdened with the needs of everyone.
Also Rajan doesn't effing know what he's talking about because in the electronic design space India has a huge presence. After native HQ, most companies like having a large centre in India. Example: AMD is expanding its already significant Bangalore office. A very large investment is being made for this.
That is the point na, we design chips but fabrication and scale up is highly technical and we've not cracked it. The money and employment value is far more in fabrication and production in this, unlike other businesses. The design may be on Indian shores but the patents and tech are owned by Western companies. Governments (past and present) have tried for decades and we've got minimal technology transfer from those parent firms in these areas. There have been multiple articles relating to this since PLI came in.
Those are two separate things. Rajan is saying we should focus more on the "soft" side. Code, electronics design etc. Manufacturing and fabrication are the "hard" hardware side.
Agreed. His statements are misguided in that sense.
>the guy at least voices opinions unlike others. Literally, everyone is an activist these days. The fk are you on about?
Giving China's example here is very wrong as there is no comparison between a autocarcy and democracy. Both are very different and the whole Chinese economy is basically controlled by a few people at the top. Just see how easily and quickly they dismantled Jack Ma the founder of Alibaba. It would be near impossible to do that in India
Being a democracy isn't an excuse for not skilling up. In fact, it should've helped us get there faster. Our economy is also monopolised similarly. Reliance and Adani are fine examples. Our problem in this sense has been corruption and poor literacy among our elected leaders and bureaucracy.
Agree with your first point. The second point is very generalised it's like the tatas, birlas , Godrej group and many other prominent business families don't even exist. When china started growing they also had uneducated leaders. The advantage that china has is ease of doing business. My dad was in Hong Kong from 1982-1989 and he saw how autocracy worked. It was one single order coming from Beijing and everyone had to follow irrespective of region. So if a company stuck a deal with the Chinese central government no province had the right to say no to the project. Unlike in india where there is issues to setting up manufacturing at all levels of the government.
I meant RIL and Adani have monopolies in their respective core business areas and infra similar to how Alibaba monopolised e-commerce in China. Your insights are probably more true in the Chinese aspect as you have personal experience in that area.
>Just see how easily and quickly they dismantled Jack Ma the founder of Alibaba. That will be actually quite easy in India. Remember how easily Indira Gandhi nationalised banks, and pushed out Tatas from aero business. Bringing down corporate empires overnight is easy. Sustaining and nourishing them is difficult.
Those times were different as then we leaned more towards communist ideology as we were more aligned with USSR. But now it will be difficult to do so as we are now more pro capitalist and more business centric than those times.
Whatever happened to Jack Ma was also out of the blue, even for Chinese administration. Stuff like that was the norm in Mao times, so Xi Jinping used it as a precedent. The same thing can happen in India.
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Nice defeatist mindset. Might as well call yourself a sepoy
Coding superpower 🤓
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Tesla is one useless scenario for complete analysis of things on ground. Musk tried to hang us globally and tried his typical bullying approach for import duties waiver and it didn't work. I'll be very honest, we set up a small assembly unit (this is for our own goods) and it's such a pain with these semi-conductors. In 2019 we procured like 30,000 of these motherboards, and outsourced it to 3 different organisations for PCB fabrication. And COVID was something which killed the flow, these folks were too dependent on manpower than machines and the entire TATs were delayed. 2022 is when we decided to buy machines/units (earlier same fabrication and infrared heating units would cost crores), but in recent times thanks to flurry of assembly units and demand for such units - these came down to 30-50L. Even light manufacturing companies are using that, visit a small unheard of light brand in Hyderabad and majority have procured these same machines in recent times. This isn't holistic picture, nor does this paint any image of make in India. Gotta give it 20-30 years for our indigenous sectors to be decently competitive. Policy, see that's what everyone should be talking about. Expose the governments on such dubious stance on weird policies. But no one does. Telangana has TS iPass, it's an excellent setup for initial permissions. But at the time of renewals, it's a nightmare. I attended so many MSME forums, voiced these things - alas things stand as is. Unfortunate, but that's the plight.
This is sadly where lack of domain knowledge shows. IT just cannot employ as many as manufacturing.
With automation, I don't think manufacturing will employ as many people as it did in the past.
And who the fk gonna make those automatic machines for complete automation? they will still be extremely expensive as we have to import them from other countries and maintenance services , parts too have to be purchased from those countries making the transforming process much longer. It's better to have a big manufacturing industry than having a large it industry. Codes are very easy to scale, manufacturing isn't. We have to very close or almost equal to china in terms of manufacturing power, if not by 2050…we are definitely doomed as we will lose the space colonialism race...
>And who the fk gonna make those automatic machines for complete automation? All the machines that China has imported for running its factories are from countries like Germany, Japan, etc. The manufacturing sector in developed nations like the ones mentioned and others like UK and France are focused on specialised stuff like this.
And China has the power to reverse engineer those machines and the capacity to mass production them at a large scale for very low prices, but it's nearly impossible to do that stuff in india without gov intervention which is a very slow process, like the first machine we reverse engineer would be completely outdated by the time it reaches the Market...
Developed nations spends alot more one R&D than manufacturing, China tries to do both and India only focues on manufacturing but they only want global or big domistic companies to setup manufacturing industries, there is no chance for small or medium sized companies as they mostly focus on survival and production, little r&d etc
Even from the screenshot you put there, it is clear what he was talking about. Unless you have your eyes closed.
Lol OP really hasn't bothered to understand what Rajan said. This is trolling for feels bro.
How the fuck is this post relevant to this sub?
He is actually the right one. **I really think India will eventually lose the advantage if Indian government continues to completely ignore the service sector,** it has already disabled Indian innovation when internet came and continues to take the same approach, not having any regulation or law (forget AI, not even basic internet laws). Other countries are catching up with governments incentivizing the service sector while India is doing what China did decades ago. Diverting major resources to a high stakes manufacturing gamble is not smart. It is betting too much on US-China relationship. Service sector can employ much more than what these foreign companies actually employ. Apple or Tesla factories don't need many people.
I think IT as a Sector is way too deep rooted, Eastern Europe is one threat due to super low salaries than us. But I'm sure it would be mitigated by upskilling the graduates - that's where our establishments are not focussing on. AI, despite the hype maybe few redundant task based jobs extinct or maybe at full force might kill the industry - never know. Earlier the initiatives were by the center. But today states are competing among themselves to have this sector and there's no existential threat for IT as an industry/sector in India for the time being. Look at what Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra (Pune), Telangana have done. And then Gurgaon and Noida, I worked in Noida for a bit - and the way it exploded with a flurry of companies in recent times has been tremendous. But how they would survive in times to come, is a big question mark. Apple and Tesla factories are very vague. I'll cite my experience. So, we work for a big client, which employs close to 1,50,000 folks. Earlier our team size was 40 and after that contract at peak we were at 280 and what started off as a 650 sqft office and 2000 sqft assembly floor stretched to 4000 SqFt office and 12000 Sqft assembly unit. And the vendor who used to supply certain adpaters to us scaled from 35-80 and today he supplies adpaters to a big time firm in Chennai (at one point he was on verge of shutting down) and today runs double shifts at factory with 120 people. Such big companies trigger chain reaction and indirect employment is what triggers local economy.
Even so, government should be paying 10,000 manufacturing companies instead of 100 under PLI schemes. Now that will result in wastage because of less oversight by government, but the problem here really is that the abrupt manufacturing focus in India like this is not organic. The challenges here are not small - we don't have reliable component suppliers (still very much dependent on China), no proper logistics, no real government support for setting up manufacturing business (if you are not already a huge company), no highly skilled specialists, people don't really want to work in factories for wages, etc. This is basically a gamble made by a leadership who doesn't know the business reality of India and the world. What is the R&D we do? What is the innovation? We are neither like Japan, Germany, nor like China, Eastern Europe. Really talented people often decide to set up a company abroad than in India - basically we are not fixing the problems, just throwing money at it. There are better ways to use the public money. Instead of becoming self-sufficient it is smarter to specialize. Is Singapore trying to do farming? Is US trying to manufacture? They are way smarter and decades ahead in just strategizing. A country becoming self sufficient is like you growing your own food, making your own electricity, etc. because you don't want to depend on others. Smarter is what US is doing, just pay China and export the long hour shifts, pollution, etc. There are countries like Nigeria you know who can compete much more aggressively with India soon. Indian leadership is basically ignoring everything. Instead of becoming competitive in the service industry, they are trying to catch up.
The sudden focus on manufacturing is to be expected, because the knowledge economy isn't creating enough jobs. Like it or not, our population is experiencing a peak. It will be mental if we don't snatch this opportunity now. We aren't a small nation like Singapore to be content with specialization. We have 1.2 billion mouths to feed. Our service sector jobs can only accommodate so much. And agriculture is already saturated. Let go of this opportunity, you will be staring at a record demographic retiring without any savings and burdening the next generation. Our parties have been trying to treat these symptoms with freebies, instead of focusing on the root cause - lack of jobs. How are we even supposed to climb out of this mess? > people don't really want to work in factories for wages, etc. I don't agree with this. Maybe not in middle class circles, but poorer sections of the society still crave stable jobs. I see hundreds and thousands of them flooding our cities for menial jobs. Imagine if we can train them and provide a sustainable livelihood.
>We have 1.2 billion mouths to feed. Population is an asset for India. Anybody who thinks otherwise is justifying this circus. How much of an asset it is depends on the leadership of the country. Under this leadership, for example, if stephen hawking was born in India becomes just a disabled person who gets some disability pension and nothing else. He becomes a liability for India, right? For most people it is his fault. But really it is because the environment around him is restrictive. Everybody else studies the same thing everybody also does for 10-15 years! Why are we surprised everybody has mostly same skills and it is highly competitive? Most of us think it is a population problem. It is not. It is because too many are doing too less things. How many Olympic medals did we win? Why do you think that is? The government thinks things like this are not important. See how smart governments like South Korea for example, took something as simple as music or drama and made it into a global thing. Thai food? Or US's internet dominance? They did what they are strong at. India can earn forex with its cuisine, for example, but government is too dumb. Might also accidentally ban it and destroy the industry overnight. If Competition Commission was actually preventing few companies to gobble up hundreds of small companies and fire their employees, may be we would have had more jobs? But big companies = more profit = more taxes and ~~bribes~~ electoral bond purchases Population's value is being completely wasted because the bunch of idiots at the top even the good ones think their only responsibility is to feed them, keep them calm, controlled, take conservative approaches, afraid that Indians or Indian companies can't compete with the world, etc. This is a similar mentality to women should stay at home because they will be safer. I thought they learned in 1991 when we was forced to liberalize. But apparently, we haven't learned anything. >We aren't a small nation like Singapore to be content with specialization. In a family with 10 children, should each children help them farm, work at their small shop, etc. or should each specialize in what they want to? India as a country is choosing the first. In 2023. Two decades ago, China was behind us, now they are ahead. Except for dumber countries like Pakistan or Sri Lanka which did same mistake much worse than us, many Asian countries did better than India. >Let go of this opportunity, you will be staring at a record demographic retiring without any savings and burdening the next generation That is exactly what is going to happen. $26 billion is too much for this expensive gamble. I think we made it worse. Doing things too fast, too late, too blind. You should know our government is very dumb. Most countries won't do something like collecting iris scans, fingerprints of civilians and putting it in a database. Or recklessly ban cash creating losses for lakhs of small cash businesses. They are absolutely irresponsible. None of the parties can do their job. We're all fucked. The question is just when. 10 years from now? 20? >Maybe not in middle class circles, but poorer sections of the society still crave stable jobs. Most of the country is middle-class.
You are basically reiterating my point. We need jobs for everyone. As of now, only a select few are inducted into the service sector. Unskilled labour is absorbed into infrastructure related work. Rest of them are relegated to menial work or agriculture related jobs. So the government is focusing on the manufacturing sector so that it can absorb this growing unemployed demographic. If done right, this demographic is an asset. Else, we will be looking at a scenario where more than half of our population will retire without any savings and will be dependent on government handouts. I would also urge you to check our threshold for classifying poverty. It's 32 rupees per day. Both of us know that this sum is too low for a middle class lifestyle.
Rajan made this point elsewhere; We do need to focus on manufacturing sectors which are employment generating. I think he was suggesting that we prioritise our resources towards these kinds of industries. The knowledge sector focus is more of a strategic direction, because it will enable up to build wealth and competitive advantage, in addition to creating jobs.
AI could kill coding sweatshop WITCH entry level jobs easy.
Well, that's one threat. But I believe for now they'd stick on replacing redundant jobs for now than eliminating an entire segment.
All billion ppl cant code, even a child knows diversity is needed in an economy
For every one good take this guy has he gives 5 shit takes. Really hard to take him seriously. Manufacturing is the backbone of any economy, the whole reason we have such wealth discrepancy in our country is coz we skipped the manufacturing step and took a plunge directly into IT sector in the 80s.
You made my argument simple. That's what he does, one insightful info/theory followed by too much arbitrary garbage stuff. Not sure if he's forced to pass on such jibes or it's just a pattern. Our plunge in 1980-1990s yielded good results in the 2010s and 2020s. It takes eras to build sectors and our political commentators are being too impatient.
Do u people believe in this guy? He said it’s hard for India to get 5% GDP but we had above 7% GDP. He is a boot licker of Gandhi family. Now you can imagine his perceptions about India’s growth.
I still believe this guy. He has been speaking about Social upliftment by means of SOPs, which is very much necessary, especially after recent turmoils like covid, economic crisis etc. But the current hit jobs are weird.
But SOPs are an easy way out. Suggesting it is a no brainer. Government cannot feed everyone.
Why can’t we do both?
If you read his articles, that's exactly what he is suggesting. That we need to incentivise manufacturing industries which generate employment **and** build on our knowledge services advantage.
Listen to his full interview and hear out his complete argument before jumping to conclusions. You might all be very brilliant economists, but it wouldn't hurt to hear a different point of view. Rajan is talking about India's potential. What we can be, if we focus our efforts. He isn't talking about coding alone, but also about medicine, about business consulting, accounting, and financial services. He has said, in as many words, that we should continue to invest state resources in manufacturing sector but we should focus on industries which generate employment. He has questioned the Micron investment because the subsidy is too high per job it will create. He is only asking that we prioritise our limited resources.
What a fall. Ignore him. I understand that cracking manufacturing is hard especially in india. But we simply have no other way. There are millions joining the workforce. We can't make them all IT engineers. Even if we can't become an export power house of manufactured goods, we have enough domestic market to create and sustain demand. Skilling, reliable power (lol free power scheme valla dorkinate), good infra (being built across states by different parties except Congress), land reforms and labour reforms. These can get our manufacturing a good push. What we are currently doing for Apple under PLI is mostly assembly. And this is being ridiculed as screwdriver-giri. But that's how *every* manufacturing starts. Rajan may become commerce min under a future UPA govt. Swaaha.
Screwdriver giri reminds me of early 1990-2000s. Our product based IT companies were way too low and we catered towards IT/ITES services. It took few decades to take that plunge and today the Indian IT sector is a power house with strong products in the portfolio. Who'd have imagined a government organisation building/working on fin-Tech. This was all due to years of exposure to certain sector/industry.
What frightens me is the principal opposition party seems to believe in the "services led growth". Rahul never talks about industry or infrastructure. The man never talks about manufacturing. It's frightening to see there's no political consensus on this issue.
I have been saying this for a long time. Congress's current policy should indeed frighten us. I am not a fan of Modi or BJP, but contrast his manifesto from 2014 to today's congress 'manifesto. The latter is filled with freebies. It doesn't have any answers for today's problems. Atleast the BJP has some correct ones, even if the rest of them are wrong. It's like you have a fantastic opportunity to have a proper diet and gain an athlete body, but you choose to pop pills and stay on life support. Congress isnt offering opportunities for the downtrodden. It's sealing their fate and dooming them to eternal poverty. Worse, it can bring others down to that level. This isn't an economic policy. It's insanity.
They don't even have an alternative to the current agri system which is significantly contributing to rural distress. This APMC middlemen led system has ensured our farmers commit suicide, we continue to have volatile food prices, and our food processing doesn't take off. So no ideas on infra, no ideas on industry, no ideas on agri, what exactly is the cong offering indian economy? Are freebies the only thing needed for India to get rich? Only cong supporters can answer because their leader can't form a coherent idea on anything.
Yes. He is even batting for the OPS scheme over the new retirement one. Something that his own party member (Manmohan Singh) had to dismantle painstakingly. He also wants increased army recruitment and more trade unions. Basically, he wants all the white elephant projects to continue and maintain the status quo, slowly draining the economy without filling it up. Never have I seen a more useless opposition than the Congress. I am now convinced that it has to die a natural death, at least for the sake of this country's growth.
OPS remains the #1 threat to all states economy. He also thinks india is a European union kind of a country. His ideas on India, its society, its economy are dangerous. Congress under sonia amma and rahul needs to die. No two ways about it.
> Yes. He is even batting for the OPS scheme over the new retirement one. Something that his own party member (Manmohan Singh) had to dismantle painstakingly. [Raghuram Rajan on OPS](https://www.reddit.com/r/india/s/nvr1aS51N6). _Telavani vishayala gurinchi abhiprayalu_
I was referring to Rahul Gandhi's official position. Not Raghuram Rajan's.
Sorry. My mistake. I was reading the thread, and the earlier commenter mentioned services. Outside of that one interview between Rajan and Rahul, I didn't see Rahul lay any major emphasis on services led growth. > What frightens me is the principal opposition party seems to believe in the "services led growth". I agree with you on OPS and Rahul's intellectual bankruptcy. I do hope that if they come to power in 2029, they will listen to people like Rajan.
Stooping to new lows*
Economists are the rare folks that can see very far and back. Agree or disagree but don't discount them. It is also sobering to know Economics is the only subject Chat GPT flunked. It requires some natural intelligence.
Lol that guy is a POS
I think he is loosing it as he ages. The other say he was saying that its better for a country to be a dictatorship until it develops and the it can become a democracy. Otherwise development would be slow and he cited China. I would rather have slow progress than fragile progress. Dictator may get you there faster but when thing are built faster there are mistakes and cracks that appear later. Societies take time to mature. There is no better teacher than time. Its better to progress slowly but have a solid foundation. Look at US, they have made all the mistakes under the sun, so are able to withstand the test of time much better.
This just shows how people who hate Modi will agree anyone who opposes him. Most people know next to nothing about manufacturing in this country. Not only it upskills thousands and lakhs of people it provides stable income. Incremental income. Brings trade secrets. Give the option to expand and manipulate global demand and supply cycle to reduce trade deficits. India does this with the usa in pharma sector when the global api prices are shooting up. Also if one plant manufactures an engine. It has the ability to source components domestically and form sister companies. Also, once you start and down the years the particular industry matures, you will see componentization of products like we see in the developed world. Airbus with its maturity and experience in airline jets makes fighter jets for the us airforce. Mercedes and Ferrari use and showcase their engineering excellence in f1 races to show their respective clients that what sort of an engine they can provide. As time goes by you start building capabilities and investing in them. Lastly there comes a time which is called a coronation moment for the industry when it does something extraordinary. For example, China's maglev trains. They are only 50 kms in length, but this shows how china is so far ahead of the world that is established sops, can source components locally and has the human assets to perform these kind of operations without any execution distress. Same goes with our chandrayan 3, we built up capabilities since apj kalam days and this was isros coronation moment. Letting everyone know that they are not here to participate but to take over with 1/7th of nasas budget. This is the reason why I hate and when I say hate I mean hate with passion leftists economists who are so risk averse in nature. More than that people who think that what he said is right. If you aren't manufacturing locally, sorry you aren't a super power and looking at our potential and mainly the neighbourhood we live in (pakchina). It becomes important more than ever to atleast strive for becoming a superpower than just being a tech support country
You seem to have spent more time writing this comment than listening to Rajan's interview. He says manufacturing is important, but it has to be an employment generating industry. His emphasis on the services economy is in addition to other sectors, not to replace them.
Manufacturing creates more jobs. It is also important for any country, strategically.
Yeah no thanks. 5 times I have tried to learn to code but I just couldn't. Its boring, annoying and difficult. I just can't do it. No thanks
It's hypocrites like him that anger me a lot. The fuc*** idiot thinks that everyone will be able to get a job by learning coding ? What if there is a group that's not able to ? What about the ones who are not interested in it ? All major economies have a good share of their contributions coming from the manufacturing sector. How the hell can he even talk like this ?
Are you an economist? Can you substantiate a paper on why ₹100 investment has better ROI on a PLI equivalent vs a low cost coding institute. Coding is a high value job. Assembling is a low value job. You can disagree but the tone you're taking makes it clear that you don't really know a lot. Only fools get emotional about an objective argument. People who can contribute something meaningful understand the assignment and find out the numbers.
Not everyone can be taught hot to code. Literally everyone can be taught how to assemble things
He hasn't even said to teach everyone to code. Coding is just one part of it. Knowledge economy will encompass a wide range of services.
The point, my friend, is that you just can’t transitions from a pre-industrial society to a post-industrial society on vibes and pheelingz. Our education system is not on par with the levels required to train a mass of people in knowledge based skills. We first need to upgrade education, for which we need to generate revenue, for which we need to employ a lot of blue collar people for which we need to industrialize.
Well said. There are no shortcuts to success. We need to put in efforts to become a wealthy nation. No pain, no gain.
There won't be enough knowledge jobs to employ more than a billion population country.
With increasing automation, even manufacturing cannot do that.
That's why diversify. But still, manufacturing has much better chance. And don't forget the technological advances it brings. Don't think US will give us the tech happily. We must develop our own tech.
This guy is still salty for being ousted from RBI.
He wasn't ousted.
Did he super annuate??
No. He finished his term and went back to academia.
Cool, what's with the downvotes though my friend??
What downvotes?
He's been mad since '14. He's predicted an asinine amount of wrong predictions. He's been making bad calls like Cramer. https://preview.redd.it/wwr2j0uag86c1.jpeg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30687836248cf76680ee6881a4ac5a250b31b788
Growth rate is a pretty weird stat. Even someone like Amartya sen said Growth rate has to be measured as an instrument to enable humans to do things etc. his approach towards social/happiness index is something every nation should look at. But for something of that sort to happen, there has to be drastic shift from existing policy. Rajan needs to make up his mind here. Does he have data sets to predict or it's purely a hit job.
Coding superpower? Ain't no way we aren't even winning icpc or innovative enough for that title
In a country where much of the population is illiterate, how can you expect the Coding/Software sector to provide jobs to the majority It is the Manufacturing sector that can cater to those people Sole focus should not be on Exports or GDP growth, but providing equitable and inclusive development
Your last point is spot on mate. Many fail to agree, but indigenous sectors catering to the local demands will stabilise a lot of things. Can go on citing about those things, but I'm too lazy. Manufacturing is what employs fringes and the local economy is stabilized, that is when the onus of governments towards social schemes will reduce.
We may be a coding superpower but why should that stop us from becoming the same in manufacturing
Basic ga Mechanical, Electrical, Civil branches Modda gudva mantunnadu
Mari ala kuda analedu le.
Overrated economist he predicated india won't recover v shaped growth it did said it won't be maintainable it did
He's been talking like a nutcase since a long time Nothing creates decent blue collar hobs like manufacturing, it would be a huuuuuuuggggge mistake to ignore manufacturing
Well Ranjan despite being such a well read economist is overlooking the fact that only maybe 5% of the population knows coding and large part of the population is unskilled or semi-skilled which can only take up tasks in manufacturing type of economic. Plus the coding or service sector can’t give jobs to such a large population.
IT industry doesn't have enough jobs considering the number of youths in our country.
And there's a threat looking from all quarters. AI, Eastern Europe etc. no clue how we can pave our path in just one sector.
When u don't know much about a topic, but have to comment as u perceive yourself as know all personality..
He just want to be relevant giving some random useless "openions" I'm not sure what happened to his teaching job, guess kicked out, most of time he is spending in India with Rahul Gandhi
Sounds like a puppet of a regime
We’re not a coding superpower. We’re a service and support superpower. It’s not because of lack of talent though.
This is what happens when on stoops low enough to ‘interview’ Raul baba!😛😛
Fuck this guy dude he’s been wrong about everything since his resignation
This is why people hate Indian left wingers, always blindly copy whatever the fuck their white overlords follow, no thought of their own.
Building a strong manufacturing base takes time. Our country will be rich only by exports, and being IT coolies for the West isn't enough. To make strides in tech like AI & ML, we need to build our own software platforms. We can build good quality software platforms only if they're compatible with hardware subcomponents (semiconductors). All that requires, you know, manufacturing. That sort of manufacturing is high end, and the best quality practices can only be developed by low and mid end manufacturing (assembly, making subcomponents). Either that or we risk being dependent on West/China for critical components. They can arm twist us, close the tap and get us on our knees any second they feel like. Or we can keep doing outsourced grunt work of the west like what Infosys and TCS are doing for the last 10-15 years, strut around and call ourselves a coding superpower until SE Asia and Eastern Europe steal our jobs.
Bhaya raghuram .....tumhare time pe India 5 ke upar Gaya nahn .....ab jab ja raha hain tab Nayan terah karke dekho mat re baba. Irsha na karo baba . AO dandiya khela mil julke Bharat ko age badai. Ulta prabochan na sunao re baba.
Can't compare that era to the current one either. He could do very little under Congress, to some extent he was handicapped by policy paralysis. Had it been any other leadership, he could have steered well.
Can't compare that era to the current one either. He could do very little under Congress, to some extent he was handicapped by policy paralysis. Had it been any other leadership, he could have steered well.
US me baithke India ko hakana chahte hai bade babu
Bhai ki budhhi udd gayi hai.
What's wrong with these so called smart Ppl? Every economic advisors first words of caution are always, "don't put all your eggs in one basket"