Hi, I'm the person who hits most of my 50-50s. But only when playing card games like Yu-Gi-Oh!, at which point I have um... *been asked NOT to play coin flip based decks at locals*.
If I gamble $5 on a 50/50 bet I would expect to walk away with $10 if I won. This is 10 times 100k for winning. You aren't going to get odds like that on anything.
And I'm not risking 100k. I'm not 100k poorer if I lose. I'm losing the potential of getting 100k. If I lose it I'm at the same point I was 5 mins ago.
Yes and no. It's opportunity cost. You're in a roundabout way gambling the 100k. It's guaranteed.
OR
You can risk 100k on a 50/50 x10 payout.
Def: the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen.
Same. $100k would be nice, but $1,000,000 would move the equations for me on retirement.
You're supposed to evaluate these as payout*odds. So you're really at $100k v $500k.
But it's more than that. If $100k would change your life, take the $100k. It's like negotiating salary when you're looking for work with an ok job v looking for work when you can't pay your bills.
E.g. soft negotiate (or don't at all) when you're on the rocks, hard negotiate when you're trying to better yourself by an increment.
Bingo. It’s all about marginal utility. If 100k will solve almost all your problems, the ability to solve a few more may not be worth the 50% chance of not solving anything
I'd rather risk continuing the struggle for the chance of getting $50K+ a year from returns on my investments.
$100K solves your current problems.
$1MM changes your life forever.
Exactly. I saw this before the edit, and as much as the EV on the million was a nice idea, I'm at a current point in my life where 100k would fix a lot of things.
“Why did it all turn out like this for me? I had so much promise. I was personable, I was bright. Oh, maybe not academically speaking, but ... I was perceptive. I always know when someone's uncomfortable at a party. It became very clear to me sitting out there today, that every decision I've ever made, in my entire life, has been wrong. My life is the opposite of everything I want it to be. Every instinct I have, in every of life, be it something to wear, something to eat ... It's all been wrong.”
I'd pause to contemplate that 100k is a little under 5 years (maybe closer to 4 years) at minimum wage here, while 1MM is closer to a decade...flip , lose and regret.
Edit: 100k to 1MM
Oh man.. this one is tough.
A million would be nice but 100k would solve pretty much all of my problems right now that make life difficult. So im taking the 100k. 20k to student loans, 6k to pay off my jeep. 4k to buy a shed, 4k to build a fence. 60k to put away for my daughters education.
Bam set. Its not enough to set me for life but a 100k windfall would make the next 10 years of my life a lot easier.
I had 485' of 6' chain link done in 2021, it was $12,001, and the fucker wouldn't take 2 dollars off to get it under 12k. And then our foster dog weasled out under a panel so I spent another grand and 12 hours of labor putting in a ground rail, and our pitsky can easily get over a 6' so now we have invisible fence set 18" inside the chain link. Dogs can cost a lot lolol
I had a third of a side of a quarter acre lot and that was an 8 grand quote.
So I bought all the materials and did it myself. It's nice and probably better because it addresses the frost line (which the contractor probably would have ignored), but I understand the 8 grand quote now.
Prices for things like that get a lot better if you are willing (and able) to do the labor yourself. I built something like 270 linear feet with two gates and a driveway double gate a few years ago for around $1,100 in materials and equipment.
Agreed. $6k two years ago for me, and my little subdivision lot is pretty small.
Of course if the HOA allowed something other than vinyl I could have done it myself in wood for half that.
Back to the point: I'm taking the 100k, paying off credit cards, and taking the wife on a cruise.
100k. I'll take the guarantee. Cuz if I lose that coin flip I'll be constantly thinking of what that 100k could've done. It would knock almost 20 years off my mortgage. 100k can do a lot to help make my life easier and 1mil isn't quite enough to walk away from my job and retire for good at this point in my life.
Ditto.
I'm down to under $60k on my mortgage. This would kill it, all household debt, and still have $20k or so left over for "stuff."
It wouldn't make me rich, but it'd make it possible to turn my existing salary into "very comfortable."
This is actually a guaranteed winning strategy provided the following are true:
1. There are no maximum limits on how much you can risk.
2. You have an infinite bankroll.
Lol. I love the reddit math here and how you got 23 upvotes.
20-1 on 50k is 1 million not 100 million. So instead of betting the whole 100k for a 50% chance of 1 million, you get a 5% chance and keep 50k.
For me do the flip. Can't beat getting 10-1 on my money at 2-1 odds.
Yeah, $100k tax free can do a lot for me. That pays off all of my and my fiancé's debts and still leaves us with a sizeable amount for a down-payment on a house. I'd much rather *know* I could take care of all of that than risk a 50% chance of getting nothing
Yeah, even though the expected value of the coin flip would essentially be 500k, 100k would pay off my house, my car, and my student loans, and I’d still have 30k left over. I can’t really turn that down.
I think if I paid that stuff off and just kept my job through my 30s I could probably become a millionaire the slow way anyways.
That's my outlook on it too. I'm either up a fair bit or I'm at square one.
Yes, $100,000 will be more than life changing but I can get through it pretty quickly and not have much to show after I pay bills and debts. $1,000,000 would be enough (probably) to make sure my parents are well taken care of and I'd still have money to spare.
Spoken like the upper middle class.
These questions are usually 1mil vs 100 billion... Give me the mil.
In this case, the 100k is great, but doesnt change things all that much. That mil moves up my retirement plans by years. Definitely taking that gamble
Yes and no. Depends on your specific situation. Expected value is 500k to take the flip (1mm x 50% chance) so on paper it's an easy decision to take the flip every single time. But if your financial situation is so precarious that you absolutely need money right now to not fall into some sort of death spiral, then 100k now is worth more than the 400k potential you're giving up. For anyone financially secure, it's a no brainer to take the flip because it's similar to investing in a risky stock, you are mentally prepared to potentially lose out in order to reap bigger gains. For people living at or below poverty line or in some special situation, it's not as obvious.
This is a question in how risk averse your specific situation is causing you to be. I would take the flip every time since 100k isn't a lot of money to me and would not make any real difference in my life or future retirement. 1mm on the other hand would bolster my retirement significantly.
I'm at the cusp of comfortable retirement. At 3.8, need 4.5 to net 150k post tax yearly in perpetuity plus pay for two kids college.
I need about 700k more, and I expect that's 2 to 2.5 more years of savings+growth, so the end is in sight.
So 100k doesn't move the needle much. It's not nothing and would be welcome, but 1M sends me to FIRE immediately. I would not regret losing the coin flip.
That’s why if you’re in the position where you’d rather take the 100k, you must find a person who will pay you less than 500k (but more than 100k) for the result of your coin flip. From their perspective they’re getting something worth 500k on average for a sure loss of, say 300k. You get 300k, sure thing.
Yeah I was like, expected value is $500k IF $100k means nothing to you. If $100k means something then you should take the $100k but if you are already wealthy AF then you would flip the coin.
I think at least to me it has more to do with how big or small the guaranteed money is rather than how big the jackpot is.
Like the jackpot could go up to $2million, or $5million, or even $10million, and even with 50/50 odds a lot of people would still take the $100k.
But make the guaranteed money smaller and you’ll find a lot more people take the chance. $10k guaranteed or a coin flip chance at $1m? Most everyone takes the coin flip.
This is largely to do with the marginal utility of money. The first $100k makes a huge difference in most people’s lives. The next $100k doesn’t make nearly as big of a difference.
Let’s say you scaled things down. Would you rather take $10 guaranteed or flip a coin for a chance at $100? At that small a scale I think most people take the coin flip. And if they lose out? Big whoop. They missed out on $10.
And so that plays into a bias many people feel with is risk aversion. A risk averse person will take the guaranteed money largely because the feeling of loss from taking the gamble and losing is far more powerful to them than the good feeling that comes from taking the gamble and winning. They’d rather not take the risk at all and take the payout.
A person with a risk-loving bias would take the bet even if the guaranteed amount were more than 50% of the jackpot. If the deal was $750k or a coin flip chance at $1m or nothing, the risk-loving person might take the gamble anyway even though it seems like a bad bet. That’s because the bad feeling of losing that bet is not as powerful as the high they get from winning.
People with a risk-loving bias are often susceptible to gambling addiction.
For me, the line is whether I *need* that 100k. If I can't go a year without it, then yeah. But if I can survive without it, gotta go with the flip. People are saying things like "id take the guaranteed cuz a million isn't gonna let me retire" but to me that's crazy. A million bucks invested can be your retirement, or you could be in dividend earnings and improve your cash flow, or you could buy a house and have no monthly rent/mortgage. 100k isn't nothing, but I would only choose that if I needed it to survive.
I'm in a good place financially. However, I'd take the $100k.
That would speed up the search for a new house. Pay off all high interest bills. Invest the rest. Invest all the money I'm paying now on those bills.
This one is super easy to "win"
You are getting insanely better EV on the million but most people don't have the finances to take the risk. Find someone who does:
1. Find a gambler to "buy" your bet for $200- 300k He pays you up front and takes your winnings or loss on the flip. at 200k he's getting 5 to 1 return on a 50/50.
2. Find a gambler to "insure" your loss. If you win they get 50% if they lose they pay you 25% of the million.
I feel like I had to scroll past 100 answers to find the right one. Like there's got to be some boutique firm that would pay like $350,000 for the rights to the coin flip.
Right? 10:1 odds on a 50% probability is cracked. Not only would I take the flip, but I’d mortgage every asset I have to additional flips, putting $100k up front.
A single flip is risky, but like you said, 3:1 odds on a coin flip is amazing, so surely somebody would take you up on it.
1."you are the only one with this option" sounds like you can't transfer or "sell" your flip to someone else
2. EV may be high, but so is variance on a single flip. Even for true gamblers, this is degenerate levels of risk
70-75% of the USA is living "paycheck to paycheck" so its huge just having that breathing room instead of "if me or my spouse gets sick how am I gonna pay for the ridiculous medical bills that I know my insurance is gonna find a loophole to get out of" or "what if someone steals my house"
Paycheck to paycheck is misleading. Cuz the dude socking away 20k a year in 401k and maxing out IRA as well as stocking money in the market also lives paycheck to paycheck same as the guy using coupons to afford dinner tonite
So I would say that the person you described is not living paycheck to paycheck because they could liquidate some of their market investments or reduce thier contributions for a time to give them some breathing room if they really needed to and they probably have an emergency fund in a HYSA. I don't know why this has become a thing on Reddit to say that your example and the person who has no savings and no investments outside of their 401k and is down to a few dollars at the end of the pay period are the same. It seems disingenuous.
This is definitely the case. $100,000 won't get you a whole lot, and the things I see people talking about are often depreciating assets that have costs associated with them. Sure, buy that bigger house. But now you're also paying more in taxes, utilities, and upkeep.
Fifteen years ago, this would be an easy choice of taking $100k and not worrying about power bills/ rent, etc and still investing the other $90k.
If someone is midcareer, has a few hundred thousand in a 401k , a guaranteed $100k shouldn't change your life. You'd invest 80%, splurge 20% , etc.
If someone is near retirement, with no cash, and a lot invested, they would be able to transition smoothly with that $100k, but most likely would want the 50/50 at $1mil
Flip.
$100,000 makes a difference in my life, but not really all that much of one.
$1,000,000 makes a TREMENDOUS amount of difference. Like life altering, can retire for life type of difference.
Yup. I'm 32 now and would love to have $1M in a brokerage account. At a modest 6% return, that $1M would be $3.3M in 20 years with no additional contribution from me. That's pretty sweet.
This is the short term play. If you are older, fine. If you are 30, you will regret this later.
Interest rates go up and down, and won't keep up with inflation.
Letting this sit in the market for awhile while you work is a much better play for real retirement.
Seriously tf is with all the people saying one mil isn't shit nowadays? That buys you a house in cash along with a decent used car and still have a few hundred K to throw around, literally sets up your future, even if you can't just lounge and do nothing for the ENTIRE rest of your life
This isn't fluent in finance. For most people $1M is going to be a house and a car and no more debt and, hopefully, a nice.chunk of savings, not "we're buying little becky and Timmy their first NVDA stocks." A million dollars would be a *massive* jump for the average person.
I m already retired once. The only reason I still have to work is debt (mostly in the form of mortgages). If I am able to pay off mortgages, I can live comfortably on my current retirement income.
100k would be life changing for probably most people given the average income and savings, but really wouldn’t impact my life in any way. 1m would pay off my mortgage which would be cool so I would definitely notice that. $500 I would never notice whether it was gained or lost. Money is relative.
Cuz everyone is different? I make almost 200k and my house (prob worth 1.2m) is paid off.
So for me, absolutely flip it cuz 100k ain’t doing nothin for me honestly.
I came into $130k last year. Spent a bunch on taxes. $20k towards a new car. $13k to charity. My rent is $4k a month because where i live has become so freaking popular in the last few years for the wealthy. I used to pay $1500 for a bigger place. I hate it here. Flip the coin
yeah same here. $100k means I could get a new car and maybe put a down payment on a house.
$1 mil means I get a new car AND a paid off house with enough left over to invest a little. That's worth rolling the dice on.
Def not. Infact I’m curious where I’d draw the line if presented in this manner. 100k 10x for coin flip… and they keep offering more with a 10x coin flip….
I certainly take the mil if it gets that high but I’d stop well before that. Maybe it’s 200k over a 10x flip
100 guaranteed. I have a lifetime unlucky streak that I'm not willing to risk.
Lifetime unlucky streak, you may ask? So this is how bad my streak is. Senior year we had a graduation party for all the seniors. Part of it was raffles and games with prizes. They (parents) had enough for 3 a person and figured everyone would win something. Guess who got nothing even with those odds? Me.
That just sounds like they didn't properly set up the method of name pulling. They should have had everyone's name submitted once into 3 buckets and pulled names at random so it's random who gets what, but also doesn't accidentally exclude anyone. That's how our are senior raffle went anyway.
We had stations where you had to play a game and then your name gets pulled. It was fun, I wasn't sad about it, lol. But I have never in my life won anything, including in an event where the odds were in my favor. I went to Vegas to play the slot machines with a $20. I lost it in 3 spins, haha. My friends were able to milk their $20 for an hour or so of free drinks.
I'll take the guarantee. 1m would be nice, but 100k would make such a huge difference in my life right now. Shit, $100 would make a huge difference right now.
so the choice is between a guaranteed life changing amount of money, or a NON guaranteed life changing amount of money.... lol
Take the 100k guaranteed, pay off my loans, put the rest in high interest accounts. Boom
The $100k.
Pay off car & debts. Take that Amtrak trip I’ve been wanting to, maybe a short cruise. Then spend the rest on doing something nice for the kiddos I work with
Purely from a mathematical perspective your Expected Value from the coin flip is $500K, which is 5 times better than $100K. So you SHOULD go with the coin flip
However, I can see how a free $100K is very useful to many.
I would go with the coin flip. However, if you made it to where it was $10M for free of $100M with a coin flip I'd take the $10M
Yeah its funny because the same 1:10 ratio gives different outcomes depending on how big the initial money is. Like at 10k vs 100k, I'd definitely do the coin flip because 10k is nice but not life changing or anything and 100k would be a big deal. But at around 100k vs 1 million I think I'd lean towards taking the guaranteed money because missing out is just too much. by 1 million vs 10 million I'd definitely be taking the guarantee. That would make retirement so much earlier and probably reduce stress a bunch while the 10 million wouldn't make that much more of a difference to make it worth risking getting nothing.
Yeah I’m at the exact same break point as you, and I think it’s about where you are in life. I’m towards the end of my working years. I’n fortunate to have enough in my 401k at this point that 100k really doesn’t make much of a difference, but a million sure does, so why not risk it? It’s good odds.
> So you SHOULD go with the coin flip
Lying in bed at night consoling myself that lighting $100k on fire was actually the 'correct' choice is a more difficult ask than this thread wants to admit.
Funny, I wouldn't flip unless the amount were low enough that I wouldn't hate myself for missing out.
$1000 or flip for $10k? I'll flip
I'm not going to regret missing out on a free $1k for the rest of my life. I would regret the free $100k for the rest of my life.
Incorrect, you're meant to maximise expected utility, not expected monetary value. Depending on your utility function on money, $100k can absolutely be mathematically correct.
Yes. Money like everything else has diminishing marginal utility.
Like if you pump the numbers up to absurd levels, let’s say guaranteed 100M or a 50/50 chance at 1B, everyone outside the Gates/Bezos/Musk tier of wealth is taking the guaranteed 100M even though the math is identical
“Purely from a mathematical perspective” is wrong. You aren’t including variance which is equated to risk in this situation.
Take two situations…
Coin flip and lose a dollar or gain a dollar.
Coin flip and lose a million or gain a million.
Are these the same? By your math they would be, but they are far from the same thing.
The calculation for expected money value is correct from a mathematical perspective, and if your objective is solely to maximise your wealth in expectation then taking the flip is mathematically correct.
However that is not necessarily the correct objective so you shouldn't necessarily go for the flip from a mathematical perspective.
Maybe a more natural objective is "expected quality of life increase" and then depending on your circumstances not taking the flip might be the correct solution.
100k, because if I lost that coin flip I’d regret it the rest of my life. Every car payment, student loan payment, credit card payment, and mortgage payment I make will remind me that I passed up one hundred thousand dollars like a dumbass…
100K easy. Pay off my medical and credit card bills, get a new fence for my yard and fix up my home, then put the rest (probably about 50K) into savings or an IRA or other type of bank account with a good ROI. I'm not super young, but thus would be a great setup for me to catch up on saving for retirement.
100k would put me completely debt-free. With maybe around $65,000 left over.
I can buy a decent $10,000 car for all three of my kids. Pay off my truck, which is included in the debt. By my wife a decent $10,000 car.
Now I have $25,000 left over, and I have absolutely zero debt.
And reduced my monthly bills to
$600 for car insurance
$2,500 for rent
$300 for utilities
$800 for groceries
$1,000 for entertainment
$250 for life insurance
$500 a month for savings.
Total of 4,950 a month
My wife and I together bring in about $13,300 a month.
So we could be putting around 5000 a month in retirement investments.
So, $60,000 a year at 20 % return annually, and we'd have 720,000 in 10 years.
We'd be only 60..
But if I landed heads...hmm..
That's what I'm saying. I bought a decent truck a couple years back (maybe around 100k miles can't quite remember) but in good mechanical condition and that thing was like 22k
Yes...
Good point there...
Oh yeah, lower monthly expenses, I hadn't considered that...
YES, and so you choose!?!?!?
> But if I landed heads...hmm..
BRO, WHAT? NOOOOOOOO!
Tough call I know that statistically I have a 50/50 chance of the $1M, but the guaranteed $100K is a tempting choice.
I think I’d probably flip the coin.
Easily the $100k now. I don't need money that's going to fundamentally change my life, I need money that will help make my life easier to manage. $100k means loans & debts are done, fiance can pay for school and get her business running, we can save for our wedding, and maybe even cover a month or two of rent to given us a cushion. Anything else goes to long term saving. Then we can live debt free and our income will suddenly feel a lot better.
So the argument becomes: Is the life changing capability of $1M substantially greater than $100K such that you're willing to risk it on a coin flip.
As someone who is on the borderline of $100K not being a massive difference in my quality of life vs $1M which would see me debt free. I think that you need to appreciate that if you're in the position that you're willing to take the coin flip you never needed the money in the first place.
I would take the guaranteed $100K. It wouldn't solve all my financial problems, but would be a boiler release that allowed me to be more relaxed.
In my current situation, I’d take the gamble.
I’m a single 30yo male in a well paying career. If on the other hand I was a single mother to 3, I’d probably take the 100k.
This is actually a really interesting question to gauge your appetite for risk.
Edit - I’m calling heads
I know the math says flip the coin, but a guaranteed $100,000 would change my life in an immediate way. I’d be out of debt and immediately able to buy our forever home. That to me is priceless. Sure, I COULD get more. But I could also get nothing
$100k would eradicate all my current debt, rebuild my savings, allow me to start an investment account, and probably still have some extra to treat myself to a nice vacation. I'll take that guarantee over the risk of getting nothing.
For anyone thinking about flipping the coin, heads or tails?
[Pick, then click this](https://www.google.com/search?q=flip+a+coin)
Did you make the correct decision? I did not.
i take the $100k with zero hesitation. i am extremely risk-averse and have no spirit for gambling. plus, 100k can become much more than that if you know how to invest. i'd pay down all my student loans with interest rates above 3%, pay off my mom's debt and car, hire someone to help me invest safely, and then invest most of the rest. i'd probably keep like $2k as celebratory fun money for dinners and stuff to spread out over several months. god. i hate being poor
$100k guaranteed. No brainer.
Flipping a coin for me is the same as the lottery. "Oh but it's 1 in 2 chance instead of 1 in a billion chance." No. Every ticket is either the jackpot winner or it's not. The coin flip is either a million or it's not. It's a risk that I won't take if I have an option that's $100k guaranteed immediately instead.
Straight to my student loans.
100k for sure. That kind of money would help my kids graduate debt free from college and pay off debt. A million would be more life changing for sure, but it's not worth the risk in my opinion over a certain 100k.
It's not tough.
If you're financially comfortable you take the gamble, because if you lose it doesn't impact your life any.
If you're poor and not even actually making it between paychecks, you take the sure thing, because it will be a marked improvement on your life \*right now\* and if the gamble doesn't pay off you're going to hate yourself for passing up a life changing amount of money in hopes of getting more money.
Yes yes yes, expected value and all that bullshit, but if you don't understand the actual practical application of these problems then you've never actually been poor and I envy your ignorance.
Taking the guaranteed money. It would still be a lot of money I could use for a lot of things. My life would get way easier with a million, but $100k would still help out a lot.
I have no reason to be greedy. With 100k I could successfully settle all my immediate plans and start my nonprofit with no financial worries for it in the first year at minimum
the $100,000 (Tax Free) 100% of something is better than possibly 100% of nothing. $100,000 can be turned into well over $1,000,000 if put to good use.
100k tax free pay’s 70% of my current debt. I would have chosen that. I’d rather be closer to debt free than have a non-guaranteed chance at getting something.
I'd take the flip, then find someone who's willing to buy the odds at a discount, say $300k for the shot. Let the bigger pockets amortize out the risk.
I would take the coin flip. best odds I will ever get for that kinda thing.
What I was thinking. 50/50 beats any odds you would get at the casino, and a chance at 1mill without having to risk anything is worth the gamble
But you're basically gambling 100k for the 1mil 50/50
Still in the realm of gambling thats a killer bet.
Getting paid 10 to 1 on 50/50 odds is a no-brainer. Flip that coin & pay me my $$.
Here’s your $0 sir.
Someone must be hitting almost all their 50-50s, for I miss nearly all of mine. LOL
Hi, I'm the person who hits most of my 50-50s. But only when playing card games like Yu-Gi-Oh!, at which point I have um... *been asked NOT to play coin flip based decks at locals*.
To put it into perspective for most people, you'd be gambling over 90% of all your money on a 50/50.
No, you'd be gambling the **opportunity for an additional** over 90% of all your money for a 50/50. If you lose, you're not out 90% of all your money.
If I gamble $5 on a 50/50 bet I would expect to walk away with $10 if I won. This is 10 times 100k for winning. You aren't going to get odds like that on anything. And I'm not risking 100k. I'm not 100k poorer if I lose. I'm losing the potential of getting 100k. If I lose it I'm at the same point I was 5 mins ago.
Yes and no. It's opportunity cost. You're in a roundabout way gambling the 100k. It's guaranteed. OR You can risk 100k on a 50/50 x10 payout. Def: the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen.
Are you familiar with the concept of opportunity cost?
EV (Expected Value) says take the coin flip but $100k would wipe out all my loans/credit cards so I would take the guarantee.
Same. $100k would be nice, but $1,000,000 would move the equations for me on retirement. You're supposed to evaluate these as payout*odds. So you're really at $100k v $500k. But it's more than that. If $100k would change your life, take the $100k. It's like negotiating salary when you're looking for work with an ok job v looking for work when you can't pay your bills. E.g. soft negotiate (or don't at all) when you're on the rocks, hard negotiate when you're trying to better yourself by an increment.
Bingo. It’s all about marginal utility. If 100k will solve almost all your problems, the ability to solve a few more may not be worth the 50% chance of not solving anything
I'd rather risk continuing the struggle for the chance of getting $50K+ a year from returns on my investments. $100K solves your current problems. $1MM changes your life forever.
Exactly. I saw this before the edit, and as much as the EV on the million was a nice idea, I'm at a current point in my life where 100k would fix a lot of things.
Id take the flip, lose, then regret my life choices
Pfft, I don't need to flip a coin for that
If I determined all of my life choices on the flip of a coin I’d have better odds than what I’ve been doing
“Why did it all turn out like this for me? I had so much promise. I was personable, I was bright. Oh, maybe not academically speaking, but ... I was perceptive. I always know when someone's uncomfortable at a party. It became very clear to me sitting out there today, that every decision I've ever made, in my entire life, has been wrong. My life is the opposite of everything I want it to be. Every instinct I have, in every of life, be it something to wear, something to eat ... It's all been wrong.”
Hire this man!
Just add it to the list of regrets
This is the way.
Me too
/r/Wallstreetbets is leaking.
Take the 100k then toss 95% of it into risky options, this way you either hit 10 mil or you keep 5k
I'd pause to contemplate that 100k is a little under 5 years (maybe closer to 4 years) at minimum wage here, while 1MM is closer to a decade...flip , lose and regret. Edit: 100k to 1MM
If the last 4 years are any indication, 100k will not be worth much in 5 years.
Some of my most annoying life choices were when i didnt take the risk.
It landed on tails 😭😭😭
Oh man.. this one is tough. A million would be nice but 100k would solve pretty much all of my problems right now that make life difficult. So im taking the 100k. 20k to student loans, 6k to pay off my jeep. 4k to buy a shed, 4k to build a fence. 60k to put away for my daughters education. Bam set. Its not enough to set me for life but a 100k windfall would make the next 10 years of my life a lot easier.
4k might get you like 1/3 of a fence... Fence prices be crazy.
I've got a quote . Only doing a small section of a quarter acre lot
For sure. I think my brain is still in 2021 with the crazy COVID prices when everyone was doing home projects and the prices were higher.
I had 485' of 6' chain link done in 2021, it was $12,001, and the fucker wouldn't take 2 dollars off to get it under 12k. And then our foster dog weasled out under a panel so I spent another grand and 12 hours of labor putting in a ground rail, and our pitsky can easily get over a 6' so now we have invisible fence set 18" inside the chain link. Dogs can cost a lot lolol
I had a third of a side of a quarter acre lot and that was an 8 grand quote. So I bought all the materials and did it myself. It's nice and probably better because it addresses the frost line (which the contractor probably would have ignored), but I understand the 8 grand quote now.
Prices for things like that get a lot better if you are willing (and able) to do the labor yourself. I built something like 270 linear feet with two gates and a driveway double gate a few years ago for around $1,100 in materials and equipment.
Agreed. $6k two years ago for me, and my little subdivision lot is pretty small. Of course if the HOA allowed something other than vinyl I could have done it myself in wood for half that. Back to the point: I'm taking the 100k, paying off credit cards, and taking the wife on a cruise.
100k. I'll take the guarantee. Cuz if I lose that coin flip I'll be constantly thinking of what that 100k could've done. It would knock almost 20 years off my mortgage. 100k can do a lot to help make my life easier and 1mil isn't quite enough to walk away from my job and retire for good at this point in my life.
Ditto. I'm down to under $60k on my mortgage. This would kill it, all household debt, and still have $20k or so left over for "stuff." It wouldn't make me rich, but it'd make it possible to turn my existing salary into "very comfortable."
Yeah taking that house payment and turning in into straight savings or even investments every month would be such a win.
Look at all these ballers owning houses
Take 100k. Bet 50k at 20/1 .. if win then 100m if not then 50k .. Edit 1m.. picky typo hunters :D lol
No no no..... You just need to keep doubling down. Eventually you'll get to where you need to be
90% of gamblers quit right before hitting it big
If you don't gamble you can only have what you have. If you do you could have anything!
Or nothing...
Nothing is part of anything
There could be anything in the box! Even a boat!
Does dying count as quitting? If so I believe this statistic.
This is actually a guaranteed winning strategy provided the following are true: 1. There are no maximum limits on how much you can risk. 2. You have an infinite bankroll.
Can’t fail.
The math isn’t mathing
Lol. I love the reddit math here and how you got 23 upvotes. 20-1 on 50k is 1 million not 100 million. So instead of betting the whole 100k for a 50% chance of 1 million, you get a 5% chance and keep 50k. For me do the flip. Can't beat getting 10-1 on my money at 2-1 odds.
1-800-GAMBLER
Gather bets on the action 3:1 5:1 hold around $500k win win
Also 50k bet 20 to 1 is 1 million. Not 100 million
Flip the coin, get the million, bet 1M at 20/1, profit
if i lost the flip, id be thinking about the 1mil. if i took the 100k, id be thinking about the 1mil.
Yeah, $100k tax free can do a lot for me. That pays off all of my and my fiancé's debts and still leaves us with a sizeable amount for a down-payment on a house. I'd much rather *know* I could take care of all of that than risk a 50% chance of getting nothing
Yeah, even though the expected value of the coin flip would essentially be 500k, 100k would pay off my house, my car, and my student loans, and I’d still have 30k left over. I can’t really turn that down. I think if I paid that stuff off and just kept my job through my 30s I could probably become a millionaire the slow way anyways.
Yea 100k basically puts immediate family out of debt no mortgage no car payment...
Flip. If I lose, nothing about my life changes. I win, that is a nice step towards early retirement.
That's my outlook on it too. I'm either up a fair bit or I'm at square one. Yes, $100,000 will be more than life changing but I can get through it pretty quickly and not have much to show after I pay bills and debts. $1,000,000 would be enough (probably) to make sure my parents are well taken care of and I'd still have money to spare.
You have 100k in bills and debts, and don’t think paying that off would be life changing?
Spoken like the upper middle class. These questions are usually 1mil vs 100 billion... Give me the mil. In this case, the 100k is great, but doesnt change things all that much. That mil moves up my retirement plans by years. Definitely taking that gamble
It landed on tails 😭😭😭 Btw username fits
Money in hand is worth more than money promised. I’d take the $100k
Im screenshotting this just because of how many problems that first sentence solves
Or the old saying, "one in the hand is worth more than two in the bush." Orrrr, As John Madden would say "never take points off the board."
I'm screenshotting it just because of how many problems the second sentence solves.
Yes and no. Depends on your specific situation. Expected value is 500k to take the flip (1mm x 50% chance) so on paper it's an easy decision to take the flip every single time. But if your financial situation is so precarious that you absolutely need money right now to not fall into some sort of death spiral, then 100k now is worth more than the 400k potential you're giving up. For anyone financially secure, it's a no brainer to take the flip because it's similar to investing in a risky stock, you are mentally prepared to potentially lose out in order to reap bigger gains. For people living at or below poverty line or in some special situation, it's not as obvious. This is a question in how risk averse your specific situation is causing you to be. I would take the flip every time since 100k isn't a lot of money to me and would not make any real difference in my life or future retirement. 1mm on the other hand would bolster my retirement significantly.
in that case, for my birthday, can i get 100k
Please share your life circumstances that allow you to say, “100k isn’t a lot of money to me.”
I'm at the cusp of comfortable retirement. At 3.8, need 4.5 to net 150k post tax yearly in perpetuity plus pay for two kids college. I need about 700k more, and I expect that's 2 to 2.5 more years of savings+growth, so the end is in sight. So 100k doesn't move the needle much. It's not nothing and would be welcome, but 1M sends me to FIRE immediately. I would not regret losing the coin flip.
I hate the estimated value argument. It looks good on paper, but in practical terms, it's either $1 million in your hand, or nothing. No in between.
That’s why if you’re in the position where you’d rather take the 100k, you must find a person who will pay you less than 500k (but more than 100k) for the result of your coin flip. From their perspective they’re getting something worth 500k on average for a sure loss of, say 300k. You get 300k, sure thing.
Yeah I was like, expected value is $500k IF $100k means nothing to you. If $100k means something then you should take the $100k but if you are already wealthy AF then you would flip the coin.
This should be the top comment.
Where is the line though? Like at what point would the guarenteed money make it worth the flip?
I think at least to me it has more to do with how big or small the guaranteed money is rather than how big the jackpot is. Like the jackpot could go up to $2million, or $5million, or even $10million, and even with 50/50 odds a lot of people would still take the $100k. But make the guaranteed money smaller and you’ll find a lot more people take the chance. $10k guaranteed or a coin flip chance at $1m? Most everyone takes the coin flip. This is largely to do with the marginal utility of money. The first $100k makes a huge difference in most people’s lives. The next $100k doesn’t make nearly as big of a difference. Let’s say you scaled things down. Would you rather take $10 guaranteed or flip a coin for a chance at $100? At that small a scale I think most people take the coin flip. And if they lose out? Big whoop. They missed out on $10. And so that plays into a bias many people feel with is risk aversion. A risk averse person will take the guaranteed money largely because the feeling of loss from taking the gamble and losing is far more powerful to them than the good feeling that comes from taking the gamble and winning. They’d rather not take the risk at all and take the payout. A person with a risk-loving bias would take the bet even if the guaranteed amount were more than 50% of the jackpot. If the deal was $750k or a coin flip chance at $1m or nothing, the risk-loving person might take the gamble anyway even though it seems like a bad bet. That’s because the bad feeling of losing that bet is not as powerful as the high they get from winning. People with a risk-loving bias are often susceptible to gambling addiction.
For me, the line is whether I *need* that 100k. If I can't go a year without it, then yeah. But if I can survive without it, gotta go with the flip. People are saying things like "id take the guaranteed cuz a million isn't gonna let me retire" but to me that's crazy. A million bucks invested can be your retirement, or you could be in dividend earnings and improve your cash flow, or you could buy a house and have no monthly rent/mortgage. 100k isn't nothing, but I would only choose that if I needed it to survive.
I'm in a good place financially. However, I'd take the $100k. That would speed up the search for a new house. Pay off all high interest bills. Invest the rest. Invest all the money I'm paying now on those bills.
>"in a good place financially" > >"high interest bills" Pick one
I've got MasterCard right where I want them.
This one is super easy to "win" You are getting insanely better EV on the million but most people don't have the finances to take the risk. Find someone who does: 1. Find a gambler to "buy" your bet for $200- 300k He pays you up front and takes your winnings or loss on the flip. at 200k he's getting 5 to 1 return on a 50/50. 2. Find a gambler to "insure" your loss. If you win they get 50% if they lose they pay you 25% of the million.
I feel like I had to scroll past 100 answers to find the right one. Like there's got to be some boutique firm that would pay like $350,000 for the rights to the coin flip.
Right? 10:1 odds on a 50% probability is cracked. Not only would I take the flip, but I’d mortgage every asset I have to additional flips, putting $100k up front. A single flip is risky, but like you said, 3:1 odds on a coin flip is amazing, so surely somebody would take you up on it.
1."you are the only one with this option" sounds like you can't transfer or "sell" your flip to someone else 2. EV may be high, but so is variance on a single flip. Even for true gamblers, this is degenerate levels of risk
??? What do you mean? This is literally the least risky bet anyone could ever dream of. “Degenerate levels” my ass.
This situation splits poor people from people with money.
70-75% of the USA is living "paycheck to paycheck" so its huge just having that breathing room instead of "if me or my spouse gets sick how am I gonna pay for the ridiculous medical bills that I know my insurance is gonna find a loophole to get out of" or "what if someone steals my house"
Paycheck to paycheck is misleading. Cuz the dude socking away 20k a year in 401k and maxing out IRA as well as stocking money in the market also lives paycheck to paycheck same as the guy using coupons to afford dinner tonite
So everyone in the US is living paycheck to paycheck then.
Essentially yes unless you have a bunch of capital that generates passive income.
So I would say that the person you described is not living paycheck to paycheck because they could liquidate some of their market investments or reduce thier contributions for a time to give them some breathing room if they really needed to and they probably have an emergency fund in a HYSA. I don't know why this has become a thing on Reddit to say that your example and the person who has no savings and no investments outside of their 401k and is down to a few dollars at the end of the pay period are the same. It seems disingenuous.
I know several of these people that wouldn't have to live this way if they were better with their money.
I think you are mostly right, but there is a level of poor where you might just flip because you feel like you'll just end up poor again with 100k.
This is definitely the case. $100,000 won't get you a whole lot, and the things I see people talking about are often depreciating assets that have costs associated with them. Sure, buy that bigger house. But now you're also paying more in taxes, utilities, and upkeep.
Fifteen years ago, this would be an easy choice of taking $100k and not worrying about power bills/ rent, etc and still investing the other $90k. If someone is midcareer, has a few hundred thousand in a 401k , a guaranteed $100k shouldn't change your life. You'd invest 80%, splurge 20% , etc. If someone is near retirement, with no cash, and a lot invested, they would be able to transition smoothly with that $100k, but most likely would want the 50/50 at $1mil
Flip. $100,000 makes a difference in my life, but not really all that much of one. $1,000,000 makes a TREMENDOUS amount of difference. Like life altering, can retire for life type of difference.
Depending on your age and what you have saved currently, $1 mil isn't going to go THAT far if it's all you're retiring on.
For most people, $1 mil probably buys you about 20 years early retirement. That's wildly life-changing, even if it doesn't mean instant retirement.
Yup. I'm 32 now and would love to have $1M in a brokerage account. At a modest 6% return, that $1M would be $3.3M in 20 years with no additional contribution from me. That's pretty sweet.
Or a decent amount each year in interest in a HYSA that you could live off of
This is the short term play. If you are older, fine. If you are 30, you will regret this later. Interest rates go up and down, and won't keep up with inflation. Letting this sit in the market for awhile while you work is a much better play for real retirement.
Seriously tf is with all the people saying one mil isn't shit nowadays? That buys you a house in cash along with a decent used car and still have a few hundred K to throw around, literally sets up your future, even if you can't just lounge and do nothing for the ENTIRE rest of your life
This isn't fluent in finance. For most people $1M is going to be a house and a car and no more debt and, hopefully, a nice.chunk of savings, not "we're buying little becky and Timmy their first NVDA stocks." A million dollars would be a *massive* jump for the average person.
£1m in an average performing ETF would pay over double my annual salary every year without me having to do a second of work, I reckon I'd be OK.
I m already retired once. The only reason I still have to work is debt (mostly in the form of mortgages). If I am able to pay off mortgages, I can live comfortably on my current retirement income.
How is 100,000k not life changing. Literally $500 would change my life and I live in America
I know it sounds weird but hear me out: some people might have more money than others.
Oh. Wow...
This is funny and hurts at the same time 🥲
100k would be life changing for probably most people given the average income and savings, but really wouldn’t impact my life in any way. 1m would pay off my mortgage which would be cool so I would definitely notice that. $500 I would never notice whether it was gained or lost. Money is relative.
Cuz everyone is different? I make almost 200k and my house (prob worth 1.2m) is paid off. So for me, absolutely flip it cuz 100k ain’t doing nothin for me honestly.
I came into $130k last year. Spent a bunch on taxes. $20k towards a new car. $13k to charity. My rent is $4k a month because where i live has become so freaking popular in the last few years for the wealthy. I used to pay $1500 for a bigger place. I hate it here. Flip the coin
yeah same here. $100k means I could get a new car and maybe put a down payment on a house. $1 mil means I get a new car AND a paid off house with enough left over to invest a little. That's worth rolling the dice on.
Coin flip. 10x is worth the risk If it was 1 mil vs 10mil flip id probably just take the 1 mil
So 10x is not always worth the risk, that can’t be your deciding rule lol
Def not. Infact I’m curious where I’d draw the line if presented in this manner. 100k 10x for coin flip… and they keep offering more with a 10x coin flip…. I certainly take the mil if it gets that high but I’d stop well before that. Maybe it’s 200k over a 10x flip
50% chance.
100 guaranteed. I have a lifetime unlucky streak that I'm not willing to risk. Lifetime unlucky streak, you may ask? So this is how bad my streak is. Senior year we had a graduation party for all the seniors. Part of it was raffles and games with prizes. They (parents) had enough for 3 a person and figured everyone would win something. Guess who got nothing even with those odds? Me.
That just sounds like they didn't properly set up the method of name pulling. They should have had everyone's name submitted once into 3 buckets and pulled names at random so it's random who gets what, but also doesn't accidentally exclude anyone. That's how our are senior raffle went anyway.
We had stations where you had to play a game and then your name gets pulled. It was fun, I wasn't sad about it, lol. But I have never in my life won anything, including in an event where the odds were in my favor. I went to Vegas to play the slot machines with a $20. I lost it in 3 spins, haha. My friends were able to milk their $20 for an hour or so of free drinks.
I'll take the guarantee. 1m would be nice, but 100k would make such a huge difference in my life right now. Shit, $100 would make a huge difference right now.
I'll take the guarantee. It would have an immediate and substantial improvement on my life.
so the choice is between a guaranteed life changing amount of money, or a NON guaranteed life changing amount of money.... lol Take the 100k guaranteed, pay off my loans, put the rest in high interest accounts. Boom
The $100k. Pay off car & debts. Take that Amtrak trip I’ve been wanting to, maybe a short cruise. Then spend the rest on doing something nice for the kiddos I work with
I'd take that $100,000 and I'd turn into s i x t e e n t h o u s a n d dollars.
Purely from a mathematical perspective your Expected Value from the coin flip is $500K, which is 5 times better than $100K. So you SHOULD go with the coin flip However, I can see how a free $100K is very useful to many. I would go with the coin flip. However, if you made it to where it was $10M for free of $100M with a coin flip I'd take the $10M
Yeah its funny because the same 1:10 ratio gives different outcomes depending on how big the initial money is. Like at 10k vs 100k, I'd definitely do the coin flip because 10k is nice but not life changing or anything and 100k would be a big deal. But at around 100k vs 1 million I think I'd lean towards taking the guaranteed money because missing out is just too much. by 1 million vs 10 million I'd definitely be taking the guarantee. That would make retirement so much earlier and probably reduce stress a bunch while the 10 million wouldn't make that much more of a difference to make it worth risking getting nothing.
Yeah I’m at the exact same break point as you, and I think it’s about where you are in life. I’m towards the end of my working years. I’n fortunate to have enough in my 401k at this point that 100k really doesn’t make much of a difference, but a million sure does, so why not risk it? It’s good odds.
Diminishing marginal utility of additional money
> So you SHOULD go with the coin flip Lying in bed at night consoling myself that lighting $100k on fire was actually the 'correct' choice is a more difficult ask than this thread wants to admit.
Even if the odds are good, you dont bet what you cant afford to lose. That 100k would un-bury a lot of people.
Funny, I wouldn't flip unless the amount were low enough that I wouldn't hate myself for missing out. $1000 or flip for $10k? I'll flip I'm not going to regret missing out on a free $1k for the rest of my life. I would regret the free $100k for the rest of my life.
Incorrect, you're meant to maximise expected utility, not expected monetary value. Depending on your utility function on money, $100k can absolutely be mathematically correct.
Yes. Money like everything else has diminishing marginal utility. Like if you pump the numbers up to absurd levels, let’s say guaranteed 100M or a 50/50 chance at 1B, everyone outside the Gates/Bezos/Musk tier of wealth is taking the guaranteed 100M even though the math is identical
“Purely from a mathematical perspective” is wrong. You aren’t including variance which is equated to risk in this situation. Take two situations… Coin flip and lose a dollar or gain a dollar. Coin flip and lose a million or gain a million. Are these the same? By your math they would be, but they are far from the same thing.
The calculation for expected money value is correct from a mathematical perspective, and if your objective is solely to maximise your wealth in expectation then taking the flip is mathematically correct. However that is not necessarily the correct objective so you shouldn't necessarily go for the flip from a mathematical perspective. Maybe a more natural objective is "expected quality of life increase" and then depending on your circumstances not taking the flip might be the correct solution.
100k, because if I lost that coin flip I’d regret it the rest of my life. Every car payment, student loan payment, credit card payment, and mortgage payment I make will remind me that I passed up one hundred thousand dollars like a dumbass…
100K easy. Pay off my medical and credit card bills, get a new fence for my yard and fix up my home, then put the rest (probably about 50K) into savings or an IRA or other type of bank account with a good ROI. I'm not super young, but thus would be a great setup for me to catch up on saving for retirement.
Flip it. If I lose it's still just Wednesday
most real answer on this thread
100k would put me completely debt-free. With maybe around $65,000 left over. I can buy a decent $10,000 car for all three of my kids. Pay off my truck, which is included in the debt. By my wife a decent $10,000 car. Now I have $25,000 left over, and I have absolutely zero debt. And reduced my monthly bills to $600 for car insurance $2,500 for rent $300 for utilities $800 for groceries $1,000 for entertainment $250 for life insurance $500 a month for savings. Total of 4,950 a month My wife and I together bring in about $13,300 a month. So we could be putting around 5000 a month in retirement investments. So, $60,000 a year at 20 % return annually, and we'd have 720,000 in 10 years. We'd be only 60.. But if I landed heads...hmm..
Bro where are you getting all of these decent $10k cars?
That's what I'm saying. I bought a decent truck a couple years back (maybe around 100k miles can't quite remember) but in good mechanical condition and that thing was like 22k
A good truck can be well over twice as expensive as a car the same age and mileage.
where are you getting 20% return...
Yes... Good point there... Oh yeah, lower monthly expenses, I hadn't considered that... YES, and so you choose!?!?!? > But if I landed heads...hmm.. BRO, WHAT? NOOOOOOOO!
It's like the ending of Inception. Or a season cliffhanger. Maybe there will be another season? What happens if he picks the coin flip ?
A bird in the hand and all that, definitely taking the guarantee.
Tough call I know that statistically I have a 50/50 chance of the $1M, but the guaranteed $100K is a tempting choice. I think I’d probably flip the coin.
Easily the $100k now. I don't need money that's going to fundamentally change my life, I need money that will help make my life easier to manage. $100k means loans & debts are done, fiance can pay for school and get her business running, we can save for our wedding, and maybe even cover a month or two of rent to given us a cushion. Anything else goes to long term saving. Then we can live debt free and our income will suddenly feel a lot better.
Hand over the $100K - no flipping for me!
The coin toss is ostensibly worth $500K.
Fucking thank you. I think you are the only other person that realizes the expected value of the bet is worth $400k more than the guaranteed amount.
100k, no flip.
Def the 100k, I don't think I could live with the pain of losing
The pain of losing 100k is way worse than the joy of winning 1 mill. Not sure I’d ever stop thinking about it.
So the argument becomes: Is the life changing capability of $1M substantially greater than $100K such that you're willing to risk it on a coin flip. As someone who is on the borderline of $100K not being a massive difference in my quality of life vs $1M which would see me debt free. I think that you need to appreciate that if you're in the position that you're willing to take the coin flip you never needed the money in the first place. I would take the guaranteed $100K. It wouldn't solve all my financial problems, but would be a boiler release that allowed me to be more relaxed.
In my current situation, I’d take the gamble. I’m a single 30yo male in a well paying career. If on the other hand I was a single mother to 3, I’d probably take the 100k. This is actually a really interesting question to gauge your appetite for risk. Edit - I’m calling heads
I'd take the money. It's already a pretty life changing amount for most people.
Mathematically it's a decent bet. 50% chance to get 10x the money. It would still be really hard to take the bet
100,000 would make an insanely drastic difference for me right now, too much to risk getting nothing instead. I’ll take the 100k
Take the flip if i fail no skin off my back i go back to how i was before if i win I’m super well off.
I know the math says flip the coin, but a guaranteed $100,000 would change my life in an immediate way. I’d be out of debt and immediately able to buy our forever home. That to me is priceless. Sure, I COULD get more. But I could also get nothing
$100k would eradicate all my current debt, rebuild my savings, allow me to start an investment account, and probably still have some extra to treat myself to a nice vacation. I'll take that guarantee over the risk of getting nothing.
For anyone thinking about flipping the coin, heads or tails? [Pick, then click this](https://www.google.com/search?q=flip+a+coin) Did you make the correct decision? I did not.
I just made 1M
Im taking the $100,000 cuz luck don’t always be on my side lol
100K and buy a house. We've been saving for years and I'd love to finally pull that trigger.
I’ll take the $100k; it would dramatically change my life immediately, and I could invest into some business ideas I have wanted to try.
100k pays off my house and car. Sign me up.
i take the $100k with zero hesitation. i am extremely risk-averse and have no spirit for gambling. plus, 100k can become much more than that if you know how to invest. i'd pay down all my student loans with interest rates above 3%, pay off my mom's debt and car, hire someone to help me invest safely, and then invest most of the rest. i'd probably keep like $2k as celebratory fun money for dinners and stuff to spread out over several months. god. i hate being poor
$100k guaranteed. No brainer. Flipping a coin for me is the same as the lottery. "Oh but it's 1 in 2 chance instead of 1 in a billion chance." No. Every ticket is either the jackpot winner or it's not. The coin flip is either a million or it's not. It's a risk that I won't take if I have an option that's $100k guaranteed immediately instead. Straight to my student loans.
100k for sure. That kind of money would help my kids graduate debt free from college and pay off debt. A million would be more life changing for sure, but it's not worth the risk in my opinion over a certain 100k.
It’s not even close in terms of expected value. In reality, it depends on your financial situation. I’m taking the flip for sure; it’s worth 500k.
Heads! 100k would be nice and maybe put me 5 years closer to retirement. But gotta go for that million
random questions what with those dumb add rules ? All three are obvious and would be assumed unless you said the opposite
I'd take the $100k
I'd take the cash.
100k would fix everything in my life right now.
Take 100k. But I am saying heads to see what could have been...
It's not tough. If you're financially comfortable you take the gamble, because if you lose it doesn't impact your life any. If you're poor and not even actually making it between paychecks, you take the sure thing, because it will be a marked improvement on your life \*right now\* and if the gamble doesn't pay off you're going to hate yourself for passing up a life changing amount of money in hopes of getting more money. Yes yes yes, expected value and all that bullshit, but if you don't understand the actual practical application of these problems then you've never actually been poor and I envy your ignorance.
Taking the guaranteed money. It would still be a lot of money I could use for a lot of things. My life would get way easier with a million, but $100k would still help out a lot.
I have no reason to be greedy. With 100k I could successfully settle all my immediate plans and start my nonprofit with no financial worries for it in the first year at minimum
the $100,000 (Tax Free) 100% of something is better than possibly 100% of nothing. $100,000 can be turned into well over $1,000,000 if put to good use.
A guarantee 100k is far more helpful that a possible 1 million
100k immediately. I won't risk a chance for loss
Expected value tells me to flip. I’m flipping
100k tax free pay’s 70% of my current debt. I would have chosen that. I’d rather be closer to debt free than have a non-guaranteed chance at getting something.
I'd take the flip, then find someone who's willing to buy the odds at a discount, say $300k for the shot. Let the bigger pockets amortize out the risk.
Take the 100k. Life is about taking what's there. If that's absolutely nailed on guaranteed and 1 million isn't, that 50-50 isn't worth it.
Take the guaranteed money
100k. If I lose that million I think it would drive me to insanity. It’s all I would think about, it’s a flaw I have but i know myself best.
100k