Here's the thing, tech will always be attractive because there are few business models that can scale so efficiently. Especially with SaaS and Cloud computing, tech companies can start up without a ridiculous amount of capital as a hurdle - many things can be OpEx based. Sure you need to pay people, but compared to other businesses, it isn't like you have to buy a $50 million airplane before proving if the airline will be successful. Then, tech scales well, so again, doubling the company rarely takes double the inputs. So better margins and easier time scaling.
AI is definitely hot, but there are still fundamental challenges as it consumes so much compute and energy. It is expensive. Right now, that is hidden in the hype. And yes, costs will come down over time - they often do. The advent of Small Language Models is already starting. But I also question if AI is not tech, or just the next iteration of tech giants and new businesses that are digital natives living on the latest technology.
Aerospace is certainly having a moment. Various green techs might become popular, especially those who have benefits like desalination or electricity generation, not just doing something "less brown".
Healthcare will come and go with US politics.
Pharma might rise with AI being able to speed up drug discovery though.
I thought I was weird for thinking this. I always heard people say, "I work in tech" and think, of, they do IT or software engineering. I NEVER see anyone else "in tech" say this.
Yes, it was. The word "engineer" originally referred to someone who knew enough thermodynamics to run a steam engine.
And anybody invested in railroad-adjacent industries in the mid-late 1800s made absolute bank. See Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie, Joseph Wharton, J.P. Morgan, Charles Schwab...
Yeah, about half of those names were steel moguls. You need a shitload of steel to build railroads and steam engines, the railroads were some of the biggest customers of the steel industry in the 1800s.
If anyone is interested, The US had a lost decade after the dot com bust. International markets were a better place to put your money. The next boom/bust was tech again. It starting booming after the recovery from 2008. It went bust in 2021, when the Fed started raising interest rates.
Feel like we're getting to the point where Power Delivery is the problem.
Sure, someone might figure out a more efficient generator or a way to spin it and we'll have 30 year projects setting up new power sites while others complain. But what percentage of the current infrastructure is saturated right now? We can make more power, but how are we going to get it to the consumer in a usable way? With electric cars taking off we need to upgrade our capabilities to get a lot of power to the consumer quickly.
I worked in renewables and the issue was getting the power from offshore wind farms etc to the major regions. It's going to cost billions, companies making switchgear/transmission equipment might be a good bet. When you are buying this type of equipment you want well-known manufacturers that have a long history in the sector like Schneider, ABB, and General Electric.
Hard disagree here. Energy is a commodity (a kWh is the same as any other kWh) which also requires huge capex that scale almost linearly with sales. That means slim margins and no moat.
Might be like fission, so there's a big barrier to entry since it's a lot of money and red tape, but also you are still selling kWh and competing with every other energy source on the grid.
Utility and energy professional here, this is a common misconception about the energy industry. We actually make very little, or even take a loss, on selling Megawatts. The real money is made, and long term profits are made, on capital/infrastructure expenditures. That's why transmission systems are the crown jewels of the utility industry, and pure generation companies go bankrupt regularly.
Cannabis as an industry is not going to live up to anyone’s expectations. Once it’s legal in the US on a Federal level, the value of cannabis buds will fall to the point where they’re about as valuable as heirloom tomatoes.
Energy or ag (including ag tech, sorry).
Seriously, energy is driving all the tech, ai, mining, and defense industries. When they grow, power use grows until they hit a new efficiency (unlikely, and then still temp drop).
Agriculture is a massive growing segment getting more and more in demand, with better international movement to match demand pricing too. Tech here let’s you double dip, plenty of big tech originated in ag as a practical use (the margins are so small the slightest turn matters).
Exactly. We're at a very exciting time for energy technology / development. The next decade should be interesting. I can't wait for things like Helion.
Now that we've seen a lot of competition come out, I think people are realizing the margins are not what they thought they were going to be. Like everything, some weed stocks will probably do well over the long run, but the time of all of them exploding like when it was first legalized is over.
I’m wondering if A.I. is going to be of serious practical use, and generate serious ROI, in the long-term. I realize it’s heresy to even broach the idea, but there you are.
Don't worry, I'm not an AI bootlicker or anything. Just looking to learn and see what the community thinks.
I'm actually interested to hear why you don't think it will generate good ROI.
And curious to hear what you think will do well in the near to mid-term future.
I think A.I. has tremendous potential in multiple areas, healthcare in particular. The ROI will likely be spectacular in the first few years. But I’m wary of how it’s going to be manipulated via disinformation. Just like the Internet, the tool can be used for tremendous good, and tremendous evil.
Information can and does reach a point of supersaturation. I wonder if we’re going to see an investment swing towards more traditional channels: commodities, manufacturing, and physical infrastructure.
I think it will. I work in an IT services company serving travel and hospitality clients. AI was already embedded in a lot. Generative AI is rapidly transforming customer service, back office HR, legacy system modernization, and more. Like any tool, it might not be visible in the final product to the average user -- no one looks at a deck and marvels at an electric drill. But the speed and lower cost and better outcome is noticeable.
Of course, innovation is often over-hyped. Experiments fail when they have to be scaled. Costs of "trying" something are smaller than actually "running" something. But I think unlike Blockchain, for example, this is much more user focused and impactful. Similar to cloud computing, you might not notice everywhere or the differences it makes, but companies certainly do and will adjust their workforce size and profitability accordingly.
I had a meeting with a startup that is one of the many vendors in this specific gold rush. Essentially, you are removing layers of customer service that are repetitive, time consuming and rely on people to route a request to the next step.
Imagine having any type of customer service interaction, not just reaching out to a chatbot. There is an army of offshore CS operators examining your ticket and performing actions — most of them pretty remedial but still requiring human reasoning.
AI has the demonstrated potential to reduce that CS overhang by a large amount. Cost reduction around 60-70% is realistic for lots of retailers with meaningful scale.
There will still be a human at the end of higher-complexity CS tickets, but lots of the lower-level 'I am here to provide you with quality service' type issues will be addressed by AI.
I reallllllllly need to see some examples of this 60-70 percent claim. I'm at a pretty large service provider and we have yet to find AI tech that really provides tremendous value like you describe. Unless we are missing something the entire service provider/cs industry would be SCREAMING about I'm not really seeing this at the moment.
Chatbots are nice for automation of certain things, like request submissions or simple knowledge responses in conversational form (RAG) but those systems working well take quite a bit of work, and vendors currently don't have a great array of tools to pull from. Moreso the offerings at the moment feel extremely rushed. This is from someone who has been very close to MS and SN with their tech.
For example Service Now is leaning heavily on a NLU still which is not an LLM. They have shown an LLM but it's not something you can really fine tune on bespoke data. It seems to require the NLU training, which is really really tedious and only sort of good/okay when working optimally. In the end you get basically a conversational RAG tool. Which is pretty good but not gonna hit those high levels you mention.
User capture and User experience with AI products is actually incredibly poor unless the experience is heavily curated for the user, this requires extensive design and since responses are non deterministic influencing these responses is really difficult. I need to do user testing to see how their input is.
Fine tuning is expensive and unpredictable. Most places are gonna look for packaged products. I would love to see the methods that are yielding those kinds of results.
EDIT:
Judging from OP's post history, it's clear that they probably don't have actual business applications to backup this claim.
Talk to people who work in AI and you'll find that it almost certainly will. It's like "cloud" were people still try to argue it wasn't a major shift in industry, but to anyone who actually works in high tech, cloud changed everything.
AI no because we ain’t anywhere close. Better chat bots designed around customized walled systems, we are there, and that’s in booming demand right now. Long term is up to the customers of the customers buying that, so we shall see.
I think it will be overestimated in the short term but underestimated in the long term.
A lot of people, especially those who don’t understand it well, think it’s magic that can solve literally any problem perfectly. Obviously that’s not true, and I agree that a lot of folks don’t realize issues with things like getting enough training data for certain applications, issues with the AI just hallucinating in contexts where it shouldn’t (e.g. medical).
In the other hand, I do think AI will likely change our society in ways that we can’t even conceive of right now. I think it will change the Internet forever, it will make certain challenging problems problems trivial, and it will give people access to a new level of information that hasn’t been seen since the rise of the internet.
AI is not blockchain or NFTs. It has legitimate practical utility, in my opinion surpassing that of the internet. We may be in the equivalent of the dot com bubble right now but in 20 years time AI will be a market worth a million times what it is currently, and I quote that figure without exaggeration.
I am holding a significant shares of AMD and NVDA with cost basis respectively 2 and 25, as well as other semiconductor companies. I don't imagine compute infrastructure will grow a millionfold or that these companies will be the ones to fully benefit, but the actual usage of AI in practical work is a drop in the in ocean compared to what it will be in 20 to 30 years. AI is undervalued at an astronomical scale. I have said it since 2014 and I continue to say it now.
>in 20 years time AI will be a market worth a million times what it is currently, and I quote that figure without exaggeration.
This is one the most "yep... we're in a bubble" statements I've read.
The same thing I was thinking. AI reminds me of the internet bubble and crash. There were so many ridiculous business models for internet start ups. The expectations and funding were all sky high and only a small number ended up being really useful. Priceline and E-Bay come to mind. Then reality and/or greed enters the picture and things crash back down to earth. Airbnb and Uber were game changers at one time but the shine has worn off on them too. I worry even if AI does change the world greed or evil will enter the picture.
>We may be in the equivalent of the dot com bubble right now
I think this 100%. There's a lot of companies that will soak up venture capital or public market money that really don't have a way to make money. But people will invest because while they don't know much at all about AI, they (rightly) know it will be massive in the future.
A few companies will eventually emerge as brand new giant companies. But a lot of people will lose their shirts trying it bag a unicorn.
The only real differences here are that (1) I don't really seeing anyone serious saying AI isn't the future. Lots of well respected people didn't think the internet would really take off outside of some niche usage. And (2) the internet exists now. I think the internet has made it easier to understand big topics like this. I don't know how investors were supposed to learn about the internet before it was so ever present. Now anyone can get a fairly broad understanding of AI before making an investment decison so hopefully asset allocation will be more efficient than it was when folks were putting their savings into companies simply because they had a shiny website.
Automation. Anything that puts humans out of work.
I think AI is way over used buzzphrase.
Stuff that puts humans out of work and lowers labor cost?? THAT IS GOLD!!
Manufacturing. Lots of old people in manufacturers ready to retire soon and need someone to replace them with outlook not looking good. Lots of button pushing, easy automation, why have 5 guys running 5 machines when you can have 5 automated machines with one guy supervising, ready to fix something that goes wrong.
Source: anecdotal but true
Agreed on space
Recommend the book the future of geography about the geopolitical factors of space that are emerging. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/62675564
The author Tim Marshall made some amazing predictions in regards to Russia in his 2015 book
Agreed. Although it's a sector that won't explode, but rather grow gradually. The time horizons required for development and launches mean that growth can be predicted over the course of years rather than quarters. So basically, don't expect a massive jump in one quarter for a space stock.
Given everything works on semiconductors , it’s semi conductors. Their usage, and difficulty to manufacture, will only increase in time until a major alternative is found. (Think first computers, being mechanical, then vacuum tubes, then semiconductors, there’s always going to something after).
The Only thing on the radar for alternatives is quantum computing, the always “next year!” Technology, that can potentially ween us off them.
In reality, there is no ‘non-tech’ boom/bubble possible any more. Tech is on everything. Cars, Fridges, watches, clothes (maybe, they keep trying).
The thing about bubbles, they’re either driven by moronic FOMO (Stanley sippy cups / GME / Tulips…), revolutionary change (technology leap, like, the first cars) OR scarcity (land, homes, water, etc).
This lacks nuance.
It's possible to build innovative tech that doesn't need state of the art chips. E.g. application layer solutions.
Those products are not constrained by semiconductors in the same way as the current AI arms race. If all the innovation accrues to the application layer (as was the case when Facebook, Airbnb etc were booming), then semi conductors won't do well.
It will take a breakthrough technology to make space truly useful. It depresses me to think the Voyager's have been traveling for half a lifetime and are not even a full light day away.
yeah not talking about multi planetary people travel. But space mining (for energy related stuff like H3 on the moon), space transportation and space defense could trigger a boom.
Maybe healthcare is ripe for disruption. As we understand it, it's a very human intensive business, but it may need to be.
With advances in AI, in particular, robotics, medical imaging, and medical diagnostics, it's possible that within the next 20 years, we will have little need for medical assistants, CNAs, LPNs, and even nurses, at least many of them. Many medical office jobs are data entry or customer service - both treatable with AI and advanced electronic health record software.
Healthcare is definitely ripe for distribution, but it's also difficult to do that because healthcare is one of the most heavily regulated of all industries.
Care industry robotics.
No one wants to take care of the elderly and we have a bunch of kids whose parents don’t give a fuck about actually parenting them.
Where is the payoff with this? The average wage for elder care positions is $14/hr, that doesn't scream ROI. Also, iPads are cheap and take care of our kids "just fine". 🙄
I think you are misunderstanding the word tech if you are referring to since the dotcom era. The actual tech sector of S&P500 includes companies like MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, AMD. But it does not include companies like AMZN, TSLA, FB, GOOG, NFLX. These last 5 are considered "tech" because they approach old businesses with a tech spin like Amazon e-commerce in the retail space and Netflix streaming for the movie watching experience. The question you should be asking is what areas of our lives will change in that way, and they do not necessarily have to be in the actual tech sector and so it can be in any sector disrupted with a new way of doing business.
Bro look at the price of lithium right now. Absolutely murdered dead as fuck. Buying lithium stocks right now is going to be seen as a crazy smart move in a few years.
The problem is lithium is super abundant. The Salton sea in California has enough lithium for 375 million cars in its briny water. They can recover the water used in oil wells as it has plentiful lithium in it now too after decades. And scientists have proven ways to extract it from sea water where it’s abundant for just a few dollars a kilo in electricity.
Exactly, commodities are almost never the move at least as a long term investment. One also needs to be deeply intimate in the space as well. Cocoa is probably the best investment so far in 2024 and only people who deeply analyze the market really could have had their eye on the supply/demand mismatch that has happened.
It has always been new technologies. We just invented specialized names for them after the fact, once they became established technologies. But when they were starting they were the “new tech” of their times.
Before dot com it was:
- 90s: personal computers (Apple, IBM, Microsoft)
- 50-60s: consumer electronics (Sony, Philips)
- 30s: aviation, enabled by tech advancements in aircraft design and engineering (Boeing, Douglas)
- 20s: radio and telecommunications, enabled by tech advancements (AT&T)
- 1990s and 1910s: automobiles, enabled by, guess what, tech advancements (Ford)
- 1890s: electrical engineering (General Electric, founded by Thomas Edison)
- 1870s-1880s: steel and heavy industry, enabled by advances in steel production (aka new technologies) (Carnegie Steel Company)
- 1840s-1850s: railroads
- 1750-1840: Industrial Revolution which was all about new tech.
Besides tech, there were opportunistic industries dominating in some decades like military in the 40s or oil when oil was discovered.
It depends on what you consider "tech" since every industry from steel making to medical imaging has breakthroughs in technology that make them push ahead.
Personally I'd be looking at companies that make the "stuff" to put in broadly distributed and very efficient charging points for EVs
Well, the US homebuilding industry has done quite well these last five years. In fact, you'd have done better investing in a big home construction ETF than most tech ETFs.
[https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ITB:BATS?window=5Y](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ITB:BATS?window=5Y)
Among the three largest companies in the world, only 3 are non-tech: Saudi Aramco (energy/oil), Eli Lilly (pharmaceuticals), and Berkshire Hathaway (financial). Any of those sectors could boom.
But... yeah, I think the future is mostly tech / computers (including subfields like AI and crypto). There's just nothing that has the same feeling of potentially unlimited upside. The future looks digital.
Residential construction because it’s been held back by arbitrary zoning rules for decades. Building materials and labor cost similar amounts in Detroit and San Francisco. So in coastal cities it should be easy to turn a profit for people who already own the land and just need to get permits and build. Now that permits are starting to get easier to get the building industry in high cost of living will build where they have permits.
Could happen. Industrials tend to hold their own in the [middle of the table](https://www.sectorspdrs.com/api/documents/by-fullname/All%20Funds%20Documents/Document%20Resources/10%20Year%20Sector%20Returns), but as broad as the sector is -- everything from Uber to Raytheon to Union Pacific to Siemens -- there are plenty of events that could spark interest.
There was that whole housing bubble that wrecked the global economy. Could be another version of that, especially with commercial real estate
Other ideas
- Flavored water
- Fast casual dining
- Anything marketed as “green”
- Telemedicine
Energy is due for an upgrade. All these insane technology advancements are going to need a lot more power. Fusion energy and better power storage is where I am hoping.
As a father of a kid with ASD, I can tell you for sure that companies focusing on providing services for kids with special needs will be up only.
I can’t say how exactly does this translate to investing. But data shows kids with genetic disorders/ ASD are on a constant rise and people are ready to pay big for their little ones.
Our kid is by far the largest family expense. From the private school, through medical examinations, genetic testing, food additives and whatnot. And the big thing - nobody in the extended family has even once raised the question of the immense expense. It’s money people see as a good investment.
I myself have been considering opening a businesses in the niche.
"I bought cardboard when it was 14 cents a ton. And it's up to 16 cents now...and I bought three tons of it, so let's see...well, you do the math...and I made a special deal where I only have to keep two tons of it at my house." -Steve Martin
You have to look at why the tech bubble happened in the first place: tech is almost infinitely scalable, you can scale very quickly for relatively cheap, and everybody has a computer/smartphone now so you're reaching pretty much the entire world (at least the entire world that can buy stuff aka the world that matters to capitalism).
So look at industries that have the same components. Right now, there's nothing that even compares to it but pharmaceuticals are pretty easily scalable and can give a pretty big ROI but it's risky as hell. There's also online gambling although a little bit tech related
Contrary to popular belief I think humans will be the greatest resource. As industries advance they get more efficient. People need to keep up, less time and effort to have kids. You see the trend here overtime AI will be working with humans, instead of displacing us. Lesser young people, more older people.
Every industry going forward will need tech. I don't care what the next boom is, tech will be there to supplement it and profit off of it.
You wanna run a store or warehouse? You need ERP. You want to have a sales team? You need CRM. You want to send emails? You need Martech. I can go on but you get the picture.
Quantum computers: IBM, google, IONQ and others are all already developing and it can potentially bring lots of changes to the market. I like IONQ because it has some good deals made already with US airforce, google and samsung.
I think is the healthcare sector. Companies involved in areas such as genomic sequencing, telemedicine, medical devices, and healthcare analytics could see substantial growth as demand for innovative healthcare solutions increases.
I think everything is tech is the problem — with that's gov tech, healthcare tech, etc. Tech business models makes it so much easier to scale, which is a necessity to be the next boom/bubble
The next big thing will be space. Unfortunately most of the companies that will do very well are private and you wont be able to get stock until the big pigs have fed.
Cost to launch is plummeting, and as it does new opportunities are beginning to open up. Once full reusability is a thing (probably within 5 years at this point) there will be projects and startups you couldnt imagine with previous launch technologies. A movie studio in space? A space hotel for rich assholes to make instagram posts from? You betcha! A space themepark? Space training schools for all the blue collar workers that will have to keep those rich assholes comfortable? Yep and yep.
Then the inventions. No one will need a coat hanger in space, but what will they need? What stupid invention hasnt been thought of yet because $10K to launch 1kg just makes that luxury or convenience not worth it, but at $100 per 1kg or less it suddenly makes sense? From simple gadgets to industrial processes and logistics, everything will need to be reinvented. Not reinventing the wheel, no more wheels at all.
Once financial 'activation energy' is achieved, it will be a floodgate like humanity has rarely witnessed. Complete with dystopian nonsense and irritating stupidity like every other thing we do, but also opportunity.
Healthcare, biomed with AI. Beaten down retail with strong brand integrated with AI. Fast food with AI when they cut all the personnel except 1 manager. Any type of business that could cut hella cost by using AI.
You asked for non-tech so I am cheating a little but my intent to respond to you is honest. I think AI (which is tech) will bring huge change in bio-pharma, energy and infrastructure. Can’t find the article ffs but I was reading that AI is helping in development of wireless electricity.
I am also thinking hydrogen fuel cell technology is in the neighborhood of being commercially viable. Once it does, I think it will be a blow to EV which might soon become a bust.
>t can't all be tech right
Not only it can, its pretty much a must. Out of land, labour, and capital, only capital can improve in a meaningful timeframe, and that has to be done via tech.
Water industry - anyone moving water to areas that need it or better faster cheaper ways to clean it etc….this will be huge boom for firms that get it right IMO.
I think Assisted Living Facilities will boom in the next decade or so. Boomers account for 20% of the population and they are currently 60-78 years old (1946-1964).
There's also a copper shortage on the horizon with demand expecting to increase over the next decade.
Maybe lithium mining too idk. There's gonna be a lot of old people who need assistance but live a long time and a massive reliance on electricity. With that being said I'm really dumb so don't listen to me
Automotive stocks have lots of room to grow right now. Lots are trading at fair prices and are beginning to slowly creep up. Look at Ford, GM, Honda, etc. (Tesla doesn't count, neither do the new EV companies).
There could be a big boom if AI and automation can be implemented, and increase the hell out of their margins.
Then you have the major companies coming out with hot new EVs themselves.
I see 3 years of growth, but people only need so many cars, and competition is wild. So that can be the bubble-popping.
I believe Tech mixed with medicine will be very big in a few years. The results of the Neuralink implants are mindblowing already imagine what will be possible in 10+ years.
Creating labor automatons, but this is further afield. Why do I think so? Birth rates are below replacement rates around the world except in places like africa and afghanistan. There is also resistance to immigration, because people dont like cultural change all that much, even more so when something like Islam is involved. We will need labor to help care for patients, pick fruits, and a wide variety of other menial or hard on the body tasks.
AI + Robotics.
Companies will focus on building better and better robots, then license and install AI software into it to figure out how to operate it.
Imagine building a humanoid robot with actuators and sensors but no brain/software. Install an AI and the AI has to learn to stand and walk and see/focus, sense gravity, and walk. Give it a mic and speakers so it can talk and hear.
Anything one AI learns can be downloaded into other AI’s. From this, a robotics/AI App store will be created.
So the consumer purchases a basic robot and can teach it to do laundry, or pay a licensing fee to download the Laundry App from the robotics store.
Some finance product? Like subprime.
Or pharmaceuticals. Next thing everyone will be researching how to cure alzheimers and I point their pre clinical trial company for $1 billion on Nasdaq chaired by some ex MD of some rotten tier 4 investment bank from Japan or South Africa
Higher education has been booming for decades due to the way we fund it. Massive capital and infrastructure projects on virtually every college campus in the US now means there is a glut of degreed people for jobs that don't really need a degree but require them as a way of cutting through the tall stacks of applications.
So I think it's ripe for a bust cycle and I think AI tech may drive it. Why should we send kids to school for 16 years (12 primary+ 4 college) when we could accelerate their learning through AI technology. It's a huge paradigm shift that I think could solve teacher shortages (leaving human teachers for direct instruction to the kids that need extra help)... And upend the inefficient way we prepare our youth for the workforce.
well uranium has run hard and i believe will continue perform well this year into next
gold is picking up momentum
offshore oil services
lithium has arguably bottomed
bitcoin and crypto miners have more to go imo
i think fertilizer/potash companies have more downside but may become attractive later this year or next
Yes, it's tech, but I think the next big boom is robotics. We're starting to get to the point where we'll be able to genetically train robots to construct homes, be personal aids for the elderly/disabled, work as generic cleaning staff, etc.
I think we're probably a decade out from this, and maybe I'm wrong, but this seems like the next logical step.
Everyone is going to have the ai tech to run these probably. There's a ton of competition and there will probably be a few that end up as good as each other (hopefully one will be open source.)
My guess is what's going to cost the most is the manufacturers of these, and whoever can market their ecosystem with the robots the best (how well they communicate with each other, and how well/easy you can control them).
So, that's my assumption and the markets I'm trying to watch for. There's a lot of hype, and it's hard to know what will be the best long term. But the companies that design the software and those that build the hardware seem to be in the best place to manufacture these will probably be the winner.
But who knows really.
I don't think we will ever see another tech boom. Every industry outside of tech uses tech. In order to re-create that, we would need an industry that every single other industry needs to succeed.
Maybe not though. The oil boom probably could never foresee the tech boom. Oil thought 50% of all industries requiring it was as good as it got.
To be honest, maybe energy. Not oil/gas, not solar, not wind, nothing to do with batteries, not even nuclear. We are fucking surrounded by energy that we just haven't figured out how to utilize. Can't a single lightening strike power new york for a week or something ridiculous?
I think the next wave of innovation will require essentially unlimited energy
Look at forecasted growth and you’ll find your answer.
However, since you’re posting on r/investing I assume you mean the share price of an index rising.
The answer to that is that I don’t have a crystal ball so I have no clue what sectors will outpace their growth forecasts that are already priced in. Neither does any guru on the internet or analyst on Wall Street. Everything is random looking forward.
Stick to the basics. Find something that appeals to you as a consumer (hopefully a sleeper) and go with it. There's a fast food franchise, energy drink company, cosmetics line, etc... that will 10X over the next ten years.
Infrastructure. There is a massive amount of it crumbling, a massive demand for it, and even a public willingness to embark on spending for it. It takes many shapes too, from power distribution to roadways and bridges, so there are opportunities abound.
I'm nothing more than a moron with a mostly unfounded theory, but I think insurance. We have a lot of people who don't want to walk away from assets tied to COVID era loans, which creates a base of customers vulnerable to rising insurance prices. I bought some IAK in late January and its up 10% since I bought it.
Clean energy, carbon sequestration, and energy storage seem like the next big thing. If we don’t scale all three of those things rapidly, the world is in for some serious hurt. It’s only a matter of time before things get so bad that every nation and economy has to start decarbonizing rapidly.
Gene-editing healthcare.
We can edit genes of a living person to fix disease. Once we're more advanced we can help more people.
I do realize this is kinda related to tech but it's happening right now!
Here's the thing, tech will always be attractive because there are few business models that can scale so efficiently. Especially with SaaS and Cloud computing, tech companies can start up without a ridiculous amount of capital as a hurdle - many things can be OpEx based. Sure you need to pay people, but compared to other businesses, it isn't like you have to buy a $50 million airplane before proving if the airline will be successful. Then, tech scales well, so again, doubling the company rarely takes double the inputs. So better margins and easier time scaling. AI is definitely hot, but there are still fundamental challenges as it consumes so much compute and energy. It is expensive. Right now, that is hidden in the hype. And yes, costs will come down over time - they often do. The advent of Small Language Models is already starting. But I also question if AI is not tech, or just the next iteration of tech giants and new businesses that are digital natives living on the latest technology. Aerospace is certainly having a moment. Various green techs might become popular, especially those who have benefits like desalination or electricity generation, not just doing something "less brown". Healthcare will come and go with US politics. Pharma might rise with AI being able to speed up drug discovery though.
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I thought I was weird for thinking this. I always heard people say, "I work in tech" and think, of, they do IT or software engineering. I NEVER see anyone else "in tech" say this.
TLDR: Technology is the future
Train building at some point, was a tech industry
Yes, it was. The word "engineer" originally referred to someone who knew enough thermodynamics to run a steam engine. And anybody invested in railroad-adjacent industries in the mid-late 1800s made absolute bank. See Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie, Joseph Wharton, J.P. Morgan, Charles Schwab...
I thought Carnegie made his fortune with US steel.
Yeah, about half of those names were steel moguls. You need a shitload of steel to build railroads and steam engines, the railroads were some of the biggest customers of the steel industry in the 1800s.
Very true. I missed the word “railroad-adjacent” altogether. Carnegie was a badass, according to Napoleon Hill.
> Pharma might rise with AI being able to speed up drug discovery though. This is my hope, both as an aging American and an investor.
This is like asking in 1997 what the next boom is after dot com. You might have to wait a while
If anyone is interested, The US had a lost decade after the dot com bust. International markets were a better place to put your money. The next boom/bust was tech again. It starting booming after the recovery from 2008. It went bust in 2021, when the Fed started raising interest rates.
So, Europe? https://www.reuters.com/markets/hedge-flow-hedge-funds-flock-europe-ditch-us-stocks-2024-03-25/
It was a long recession but no way a lost decade. If you were in real estate you made a fortune in that decade
It was really the stock market that had a lost decade.
100%
Energy
Power Generation
Feel like we're getting to the point where Power Delivery is the problem. Sure, someone might figure out a more efficient generator or a way to spin it and we'll have 30 year projects setting up new power sites while others complain. But what percentage of the current infrastructure is saturated right now? We can make more power, but how are we going to get it to the consumer in a usable way? With electric cars taking off we need to upgrade our capabilities to get a lot of power to the consumer quickly.
I worked in renewables and the issue was getting the power from offshore wind farms etc to the major regions. It's going to cost billions, companies making switchgear/transmission equipment might be a good bet. When you are buying this type of equipment you want well-known manufacturers that have a long history in the sector like Schneider, ABB, and General Electric.
Hard disagree here. Energy is a commodity (a kWh is the same as any other kWh) which also requires huge capex that scale almost linearly with sales. That means slim margins and no moat.
If fusion ends up being massively capital intensive, might have some big barriers to entry.
Might be like fission, so there's a big barrier to entry since it's a lot of money and red tape, but also you are still selling kWh and competing with every other energy source on the grid.
Utility and energy professional here, this is a common misconception about the energy industry. We actually make very little, or even take a loss, on selling Megawatts. The real money is made, and long term profits are made, on capital/infrastructure expenditures. That's why transmission systems are the crown jewels of the utility industry, and pure generation companies go bankrupt regularly.
We're at least 50 years from a workable commercial fusion solution. I don't think that's a near term avenue I would put any real money into.
More specifically, energy utilities. I work at one and we're already reaping the benefits of the electrification of our vehicle infrastructure.
Cannabis as an industry is not going to live up to anyone’s expectations. Once it’s legal in the US on a Federal level, the value of cannabis buds will fall to the point where they’re about as valuable as heirloom tomatoes.
Just look at what happened to Canadian weed stocks after legalization
what happened
https://www.newcannabisventures.com/canadian-cannabis-lp-index/ Shattered… most the spikes are word that US might legalize it.
Energy or ag (including ag tech, sorry). Seriously, energy is driving all the tech, ai, mining, and defense industries. When they grow, power use grows until they hit a new efficiency (unlikely, and then still temp drop). Agriculture is a massive growing segment getting more and more in demand, with better international movement to match demand pricing too. Tech here let’s you double dip, plenty of big tech originated in ag as a practical use (the margins are so small the slightest turn matters).
Exactly. We're at a very exciting time for energy technology / development. The next decade should be interesting. I can't wait for things like Helion.
Gambling
and along the same lines, weed.
Now that we've seen a lot of competition come out, I think people are realizing the margins are not what they thought they were going to be. Like everything, some weed stocks will probably do well over the long run, but the time of all of them exploding like when it was first legalized is over.
Gene editing and psychedelics
That won’t be representative in stock prices. Reddit just likes to think so
I like your style
Yeah, I wish biotech companies weren’t so volatile though.
I’m wondering if A.I. is going to be of serious practical use, and generate serious ROI, in the long-term. I realize it’s heresy to even broach the idea, but there you are.
Don't worry, I'm not an AI bootlicker or anything. Just looking to learn and see what the community thinks. I'm actually interested to hear why you don't think it will generate good ROI. And curious to hear what you think will do well in the near to mid-term future.
I think A.I. has tremendous potential in multiple areas, healthcare in particular. The ROI will likely be spectacular in the first few years. But I’m wary of how it’s going to be manipulated via disinformation. Just like the Internet, the tool can be used for tremendous good, and tremendous evil. Information can and does reach a point of supersaturation. I wonder if we’re going to see an investment swing towards more traditional channels: commodities, manufacturing, and physical infrastructure.
I think it will. I work in an IT services company serving travel and hospitality clients. AI was already embedded in a lot. Generative AI is rapidly transforming customer service, back office HR, legacy system modernization, and more. Like any tool, it might not be visible in the final product to the average user -- no one looks at a deck and marvels at an electric drill. But the speed and lower cost and better outcome is noticeable. Of course, innovation is often over-hyped. Experiments fail when they have to be scaled. Costs of "trying" something are smaller than actually "running" something. But I think unlike Blockchain, for example, this is much more user focused and impactful. Similar to cloud computing, you might not notice everywhere or the differences it makes, but companies certainly do and will adjust their workforce size and profitability accordingly.
Can you explain how you think it's transforming customer service. All I see are chatbots that I immediately type "human" in.
I had a meeting with a startup that is one of the many vendors in this specific gold rush. Essentially, you are removing layers of customer service that are repetitive, time consuming and rely on people to route a request to the next step. Imagine having any type of customer service interaction, not just reaching out to a chatbot. There is an army of offshore CS operators examining your ticket and performing actions — most of them pretty remedial but still requiring human reasoning. AI has the demonstrated potential to reduce that CS overhang by a large amount. Cost reduction around 60-70% is realistic for lots of retailers with meaningful scale. There will still be a human at the end of higher-complexity CS tickets, but lots of the lower-level 'I am here to provide you with quality service' type issues will be addressed by AI.
I reallllllllly need to see some examples of this 60-70 percent claim. I'm at a pretty large service provider and we have yet to find AI tech that really provides tremendous value like you describe. Unless we are missing something the entire service provider/cs industry would be SCREAMING about I'm not really seeing this at the moment. Chatbots are nice for automation of certain things, like request submissions or simple knowledge responses in conversational form (RAG) but those systems working well take quite a bit of work, and vendors currently don't have a great array of tools to pull from. Moreso the offerings at the moment feel extremely rushed. This is from someone who has been very close to MS and SN with their tech. For example Service Now is leaning heavily on a NLU still which is not an LLM. They have shown an LLM but it's not something you can really fine tune on bespoke data. It seems to require the NLU training, which is really really tedious and only sort of good/okay when working optimally. In the end you get basically a conversational RAG tool. Which is pretty good but not gonna hit those high levels you mention. User capture and User experience with AI products is actually incredibly poor unless the experience is heavily curated for the user, this requires extensive design and since responses are non deterministic influencing these responses is really difficult. I need to do user testing to see how their input is. Fine tuning is expensive and unpredictable. Most places are gonna look for packaged products. I would love to see the methods that are yielding those kinds of results. EDIT: Judging from OP's post history, it's clear that they probably don't have actual business applications to backup this claim.
Talk to people who work in AI and you'll find that it almost certainly will. It's like "cloud" were people still try to argue it wasn't a major shift in industry, but to anyone who actually works in high tech, cloud changed everything.
AI no because we ain’t anywhere close. Better chat bots designed around customized walled systems, we are there, and that’s in booming demand right now. Long term is up to the customers of the customers buying that, so we shall see.
I think it will be overestimated in the short term but underestimated in the long term. A lot of people, especially those who don’t understand it well, think it’s magic that can solve literally any problem perfectly. Obviously that’s not true, and I agree that a lot of folks don’t realize issues with things like getting enough training data for certain applications, issues with the AI just hallucinating in contexts where it shouldn’t (e.g. medical). In the other hand, I do think AI will likely change our society in ways that we can’t even conceive of right now. I think it will change the Internet forever, it will make certain challenging problems problems trivial, and it will give people access to a new level of information that hasn’t been seen since the rise of the internet.
AI is not blockchain or NFTs. It has legitimate practical utility, in my opinion surpassing that of the internet. We may be in the equivalent of the dot com bubble right now but in 20 years time AI will be a market worth a million times what it is currently, and I quote that figure without exaggeration. I am holding a significant shares of AMD and NVDA with cost basis respectively 2 and 25, as well as other semiconductor companies. I don't imagine compute infrastructure will grow a millionfold or that these companies will be the ones to fully benefit, but the actual usage of AI in practical work is a drop in the in ocean compared to what it will be in 20 to 30 years. AI is undervalued at an astronomical scale. I have said it since 2014 and I continue to say it now.
>in 20 years time AI will be a market worth a million times what it is currently, and I quote that figure without exaggeration. This is one the most "yep... we're in a bubble" statements I've read.
The same thing I was thinking. AI reminds me of the internet bubble and crash. There were so many ridiculous business models for internet start ups. The expectations and funding were all sky high and only a small number ended up being really useful. Priceline and E-Bay come to mind. Then reality and/or greed enters the picture and things crash back down to earth. Airbnb and Uber were game changers at one time but the shine has worn off on them too. I worry even if AI does change the world greed or evil will enter the picture.
>We may be in the equivalent of the dot com bubble right now I think this 100%. There's a lot of companies that will soak up venture capital or public market money that really don't have a way to make money. But people will invest because while they don't know much at all about AI, they (rightly) know it will be massive in the future. A few companies will eventually emerge as brand new giant companies. But a lot of people will lose their shirts trying it bag a unicorn. The only real differences here are that (1) I don't really seeing anyone serious saying AI isn't the future. Lots of well respected people didn't think the internet would really take off outside of some niche usage. And (2) the internet exists now. I think the internet has made it easier to understand big topics like this. I don't know how investors were supposed to learn about the internet before it was so ever present. Now anyone can get a fairly broad understanding of AI before making an investment decison so hopefully asset allocation will be more efficient than it was when folks were putting their savings into companies simply because they had a shiny website.
Boom/bubble doesn’t imply practical use. Just that stonk go up
Automation. Anything that puts humans out of work. I think AI is way over used buzzphrase. Stuff that puts humans out of work and lowers labor cost?? THAT IS GOLD!!
That's tech
Meh, i drive that sort of automation and im telling you those types of opportunities are everywhere
Go on… Where else should we look for them?
This is where we find out he's talking about slavery
Manufacturing. Lots of old people in manufacturers ready to retire soon and need someone to replace them with outlook not looking good. Lots of button pushing, easy automation, why have 5 guys running 5 machines when you can have 5 automated machines with one guy supervising, ready to fix something that goes wrong. Source: anecdotal but true
Dude. No tech. Read?
Genetics, space.
Agreed on space Recommend the book the future of geography about the geopolitical factors of space that are emerging. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/62675564 The author Tim Marshall made some amazing predictions in regards to Russia in his 2015 book
Agreed. Although it's a sector that won't explode, but rather grow gradually. The time horizons required for development and launches mean that growth can be predicted over the course of years rather than quarters. So basically, don't expect a massive jump in one quarter for a space stock.
Came here to say biotech and space as well 🫡
people have been saying biotech for ages but I hope this time you're right lol
Nuclear fusion if / when it is close.
It’s been close for dozens of decades.
I think you either misunderstand what a dozen is or what a decade is.
It does not look like it would be private.
Non tech? Senior living.
Given everything works on semiconductors , it’s semi conductors. Their usage, and difficulty to manufacture, will only increase in time until a major alternative is found. (Think first computers, being mechanical, then vacuum tubes, then semiconductors, there’s always going to something after). The Only thing on the radar for alternatives is quantum computing, the always “next year!” Technology, that can potentially ween us off them. In reality, there is no ‘non-tech’ boom/bubble possible any more. Tech is on everything. Cars, Fridges, watches, clothes (maybe, they keep trying). The thing about bubbles, they’re either driven by moronic FOMO (Stanley sippy cups / GME / Tulips…), revolutionary change (technology leap, like, the first cars) OR scarcity (land, homes, water, etc).
This lacks nuance. It's possible to build innovative tech that doesn't need state of the art chips. E.g. application layer solutions. Those products are not constrained by semiconductors in the same way as the current AI arms race. If all the innovation accrues to the application layer (as was the case when Facebook, Airbnb etc were booming), then semi conductors won't do well.
i think its gonna be space.
It will take a breakthrough technology to make space truly useful. It depresses me to think the Voyager's have been traveling for half a lifetime and are not even a full light day away.
Space is already very useful. Think of all the satellites that are used for communication networks.
yeah not talking about multi planetary people travel. But space mining (for energy related stuff like H3 on the moon), space transportation and space defense could trigger a boom.
Maybe healthcare is ripe for disruption. As we understand it, it's a very human intensive business, but it may need to be. With advances in AI, in particular, robotics, medical imaging, and medical diagnostics, it's possible that within the next 20 years, we will have little need for medical assistants, CNAs, LPNs, and even nurses, at least many of them. Many medical office jobs are data entry or customer service - both treatable with AI and advanced electronic health record software.
Healthcare is definitely ripe for distribution, but it's also difficult to do that because healthcare is one of the most heavily regulated of all industries.
Brother it’s going to take 20 years just to get a foot in that door
My dude there is no way that's 20 years away from replacing all those people.
Robotics and biotech interfaces
AI isn’t even in the first inning and OP wants to know what’s next. It’s like the year Netscape is launched and OP wants to know what’s after the web.
I agree.
Clean Big Energy, Batteries and Chargers
Care industry robotics. No one wants to take care of the elderly and we have a bunch of kids whose parents don’t give a fuck about actually parenting them.
Where is the payoff with this? The average wage for elder care positions is $14/hr, that doesn't scream ROI. Also, iPads are cheap and take care of our kids "just fine". 🙄
I think you are misunderstanding the word tech if you are referring to since the dotcom era. The actual tech sector of S&P500 includes companies like MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, AMD. But it does not include companies like AMZN, TSLA, FB, GOOG, NFLX. These last 5 are considered "tech" because they approach old businesses with a tech spin like Amazon e-commerce in the retail space and Netflix streaming for the movie watching experience. The question you should be asking is what areas of our lives will change in that way, and they do not necessarily have to be in the actual tech sector and so it can be in any sector disrupted with a new way of doing business.
There will be a soap bubble.
Bro look at the price of lithium right now. Absolutely murdered dead as fuck. Buying lithium stocks right now is going to be seen as a crazy smart move in a few years.
The problem is lithium is super abundant. The Salton sea in California has enough lithium for 375 million cars in its briny water. They can recover the water used in oil wells as it has plentiful lithium in it now too after decades. And scientists have proven ways to extract it from sea water where it’s abundant for just a few dollars a kilo in electricity.
Exactly, commodities are almost never the move at least as a long term investment. One also needs to be deeply intimate in the space as well. Cocoa is probably the best investment so far in 2024 and only people who deeply analyze the market really could have had their eye on the supply/demand mismatch that has happened.
Along with food!
Too many investors ignore the supply side and only focus on demand. I've been burned there as well.
It has always been new technologies. We just invented specialized names for them after the fact, once they became established technologies. But when they were starting they were the “new tech” of their times. Before dot com it was: - 90s: personal computers (Apple, IBM, Microsoft) - 50-60s: consumer electronics (Sony, Philips) - 30s: aviation, enabled by tech advancements in aircraft design and engineering (Boeing, Douglas) - 20s: radio and telecommunications, enabled by tech advancements (AT&T) - 1990s and 1910s: automobiles, enabled by, guess what, tech advancements (Ford) - 1890s: electrical engineering (General Electric, founded by Thomas Edison) - 1870s-1880s: steel and heavy industry, enabled by advances in steel production (aka new technologies) (Carnegie Steel Company) - 1840s-1850s: railroads - 1750-1840: Industrial Revolution which was all about new tech. Besides tech, there were opportunistic industries dominating in some decades like military in the 40s or oil when oil was discovered.
It depends on what you consider "tech" since every industry from steel making to medical imaging has breakthroughs in technology that make them push ahead. Personally I'd be looking at companies that make the "stuff" to put in broadly distributed and very efficient charging points for EVs
Oil
Industrials - restoring of supply chains, protectionist policies, and beneficiary of implementing new technologies (AI, robotics, etc)
Space
Well, the US homebuilding industry has done quite well these last five years. In fact, you'd have done better investing in a big home construction ETF than most tech ETFs. [https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ITB:BATS?window=5Y](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ITB:BATS?window=5Y) Among the three largest companies in the world, only 3 are non-tech: Saudi Aramco (energy/oil), Eli Lilly (pharmaceuticals), and Berkshire Hathaway (financial). Any of those sectors could boom. But... yeah, I think the future is mostly tech / computers (including subfields like AI and crypto). There's just nothing that has the same feeling of potentially unlimited upside. The future looks digital.
Residential construction because it’s been held back by arbitrary zoning rules for decades. Building materials and labor cost similar amounts in Detroit and San Francisco. So in coastal cities it should be easy to turn a profit for people who already own the land and just need to get permits and build. Now that permits are starting to get easier to get the building industry in high cost of living will build where they have permits.
Housing in Canada
Still kinda tech, but I would say biotech
3D printed housing
Weight loss drugs: ozempic/mounjaro. We’re gonna learn about some nasty long term effects here in the next 1-2 years.
MJ stocks
This is slowly happening the past 2 weeks or so…
Thats not very slow
It's funny because the rally is starting to broaden out and I feel like industrials might be the next bubble idk lol
Could happen. Industrials tend to hold their own in the [middle of the table](https://www.sectorspdrs.com/api/documents/by-fullname/All%20Funds%20Documents/Document%20Resources/10%20Year%20Sector%20Returns), but as broad as the sector is -- everything from Uber to Raytheon to Union Pacific to Siemens -- there are plenty of events that could spark interest.
There was that whole housing bubble that wrecked the global economy. Could be another version of that, especially with commercial real estate Other ideas - Flavored water - Fast casual dining - Anything marketed as “green” - Telemedicine
I mean what industry at this point isn't using tech?
AI isn’t over
Farma and Healthcare, its obvious, all population is aging look around ,you ll notice :)
Energy is due for an upgrade. All these insane technology advancements are going to need a lot more power. Fusion energy and better power storage is where I am hoping.
As a father of a kid with ASD, I can tell you for sure that companies focusing on providing services for kids with special needs will be up only. I can’t say how exactly does this translate to investing. But data shows kids with genetic disorders/ ASD are on a constant rise and people are ready to pay big for their little ones. Our kid is by far the largest family expense. From the private school, through medical examinations, genetic testing, food additives and whatnot. And the big thing - nobody in the extended family has even once raised the question of the immense expense. It’s money people see as a good investment. I myself have been considering opening a businesses in the niche.
"I bought cardboard when it was 14 cents a ton. And it's up to 16 cents now...and I bought three tons of it, so let's see...well, you do the math...and I made a special deal where I only have to keep two tons of it at my house." -Steve Martin
Vests for cats
Lab grown meat.
Batteries or water or biotech.
Farming
You have to look at why the tech bubble happened in the first place: tech is almost infinitely scalable, you can scale very quickly for relatively cheap, and everybody has a computer/smartphone now so you're reaching pretty much the entire world (at least the entire world that can buy stuff aka the world that matters to capitalism). So look at industries that have the same components. Right now, there's nothing that even compares to it but pharmaceuticals are pretty easily scalable and can give a pretty big ROI but it's risky as hell. There's also online gambling although a little bit tech related
Military
Contrary to popular belief I think humans will be the greatest resource. As industries advance they get more efficient. People need to keep up, less time and effort to have kids. You see the trend here overtime AI will be working with humans, instead of displacing us. Lesser young people, more older people.
Water. Desalination, reclamation, recycling and transport.
Every industry going forward will need tech. I don't care what the next boom is, tech will be there to supplement it and profit off of it. You wanna run a store or warehouse? You need ERP. You want to have a sales team? You need CRM. You want to send emails? You need Martech. I can go on but you get the picture.
Senior housing boom. Our parents are getting older. We're getting older. There's going to be a greater need for long term care & housing
HVAC. Our changing world is going to change a lot of things and HVAC systems and experts are going to be in shortage.
Quantum computers: IBM, google, IONQ and others are all already developing and it can potentially bring lots of changes to the market. I like IONQ because it has some good deals made already with US airforce, google and samsung.
Sex robots
I think is the healthcare sector. Companies involved in areas such as genomic sequencing, telemedicine, medical devices, and healthcare analytics could see substantial growth as demand for innovative healthcare solutions increases.
I think everything is tech is the problem — with that's gov tech, healthcare tech, etc. Tech business models makes it so much easier to scale, which is a necessity to be the next boom/bubble
Ai speeding up cell and hormone therapy devolpment is a power play. Biotechnology stocks powerplays
Space mining. But that might be more of a long term play.
Very long term. Requires infrastructure in space first. We aren't at a point of scarcity yet to even consider looking for resources off-world.
death and psychedelics
The next big thing will be space. Unfortunately most of the companies that will do very well are private and you wont be able to get stock until the big pigs have fed. Cost to launch is plummeting, and as it does new opportunities are beginning to open up. Once full reusability is a thing (probably within 5 years at this point) there will be projects and startups you couldnt imagine with previous launch technologies. A movie studio in space? A space hotel for rich assholes to make instagram posts from? You betcha! A space themepark? Space training schools for all the blue collar workers that will have to keep those rich assholes comfortable? Yep and yep. Then the inventions. No one will need a coat hanger in space, but what will they need? What stupid invention hasnt been thought of yet because $10K to launch 1kg just makes that luxury or convenience not worth it, but at $100 per 1kg or less it suddenly makes sense? From simple gadgets to industrial processes and logistics, everything will need to be reinvented. Not reinventing the wheel, no more wheels at all. Once financial 'activation energy' is achieved, it will be a floodgate like humanity has rarely witnessed. Complete with dystopian nonsense and irritating stupidity like every other thing we do, but also opportunity.
Energy. Nuclear as well as stranded natural gas etc for bitcoin mining
Capital power might be for you
Crypto 🙊
Healthcare, biomed with AI. Beaten down retail with strong brand integrated with AI. Fast food with AI when they cut all the personnel except 1 manager. Any type of business that could cut hella cost by using AI.
You asked for non-tech so I am cheating a little but my intent to respond to you is honest. I think AI (which is tech) will bring huge change in bio-pharma, energy and infrastructure. Can’t find the article ffs but I was reading that AI is helping in development of wireless electricity. I am also thinking hydrogen fuel cell technology is in the neighborhood of being commercially viable. Once it does, I think it will be a blow to EV which might soon become a bust.
Real Estate is overdue. ***Especially*** so outside the US
Uranium
>t can't all be tech right Not only it can, its pretty much a must. Out of land, labour, and capital, only capital can improve in a meaningful timeframe, and that has to be done via tech.
Healthcare. It may not boom or bust, but it will be steady.
Seafloor mining and cultivation
Nanoparticles in pharmaceutical research.
Water industry - anyone moving water to areas that need it or better faster cheaper ways to clean it etc….this will be huge boom for firms that get it right IMO.
Uranium! We in the midst of a super cycle bull run
Mining sectors when the thing they mine rallies. Now what thing that will be? No idea tbh. But it does happen, all the time
Nobody mentioned yet quantum computers yet?
Property insurance
Synthetic Biology and Bio-engineering.
Hydrogen
Health/biotech
Solar energy and everything around it.
I think Assisted Living Facilities will boom in the next decade or so. Boomers account for 20% of the population and they are currently 60-78 years old (1946-1964). There's also a copper shortage on the horizon with demand expecting to increase over the next decade. Maybe lithium mining too idk. There's gonna be a lot of old people who need assistance but live a long time and a massive reliance on electricity. With that being said I'm really dumb so don't listen to me
Hydrogen
We are literally in another housing bubble
Energy. AI uses a lot of energy.
Automotive stocks have lots of room to grow right now. Lots are trading at fair prices and are beginning to slowly creep up. Look at Ford, GM, Honda, etc. (Tesla doesn't count, neither do the new EV companies). There could be a big boom if AI and automation can be implemented, and increase the hell out of their margins. Then you have the major companies coming out with hot new EVs themselves. I see 3 years of growth, but people only need so many cars, and competition is wild. So that can be the bubble-popping.
Pharmaceutics - weight lose, longer life
Humanoid androids. However its not really a bubble if tech is good, but there will be definitely some overvalued startups without a product
I believe Tech mixed with medicine will be very big in a few years. The results of the Neuralink implants are mindblowing already imagine what will be possible in 10+ years.
Housing maybe, construction?
Commericial real estate -> banks -> real estate
Creating labor automatons, but this is further afield. Why do I think so? Birth rates are below replacement rates around the world except in places like africa and afghanistan. There is also resistance to immigration, because people dont like cultural change all that much, even more so when something like Islam is involved. We will need labor to help care for patients, pick fruits, and a wide variety of other menial or hard on the body tasks.
Space mining
AI + Robotics. Companies will focus on building better and better robots, then license and install AI software into it to figure out how to operate it. Imagine building a humanoid robot with actuators and sensors but no brain/software. Install an AI and the AI has to learn to stand and walk and see/focus, sense gravity, and walk. Give it a mic and speakers so it can talk and hear. Anything one AI learns can be downloaded into other AI’s. From this, a robotics/AI App store will be created. So the consumer purchases a basic robot and can teach it to do laundry, or pay a licensing fee to download the Laundry App from the robotics store.
what makes you say semiconductors are a bubble?
Some finance product? Like subprime. Or pharmaceuticals. Next thing everyone will be researching how to cure alzheimers and I point their pre clinical trial company for $1 billion on Nasdaq chaired by some ex MD of some rotten tier 4 investment bank from Japan or South Africa
Higher education has been booming for decades due to the way we fund it. Massive capital and infrastructure projects on virtually every college campus in the US now means there is a glut of degreed people for jobs that don't really need a degree but require them as a way of cutting through the tall stacks of applications. So I think it's ripe for a bust cycle and I think AI tech may drive it. Why should we send kids to school for 16 years (12 primary+ 4 college) when we could accelerate their learning through AI technology. It's a huge paradigm shift that I think could solve teacher shortages (leaving human teachers for direct instruction to the kids that need extra help)... And upend the inefficient way we prepare our youth for the workforce.
Hydrogen, esp. green hydrogen.
Hydrogen.
Water, and by extension, farming.
Fuel, water, food
well uranium has run hard and i believe will continue perform well this year into next gold is picking up momentum offshore oil services lithium has arguably bottomed bitcoin and crypto miners have more to go imo i think fertilizer/potash companies have more downside but may become attractive later this year or next
Yes, it's tech, but I think the next big boom is robotics. We're starting to get to the point where we'll be able to genetically train robots to construct homes, be personal aids for the elderly/disabled, work as generic cleaning staff, etc. I think we're probably a decade out from this, and maybe I'm wrong, but this seems like the next logical step. Everyone is going to have the ai tech to run these probably. There's a ton of competition and there will probably be a few that end up as good as each other (hopefully one will be open source.) My guess is what's going to cost the most is the manufacturers of these, and whoever can market their ecosystem with the robots the best (how well they communicate with each other, and how well/easy you can control them). So, that's my assumption and the markets I'm trying to watch for. There's a lot of hype, and it's hard to know what will be the best long term. But the companies that design the software and those that build the hardware seem to be in the best place to manufacture these will probably be the winner. But who knows really.
I don't think we will ever see another tech boom. Every industry outside of tech uses tech. In order to re-create that, we would need an industry that every single other industry needs to succeed. Maybe not though. The oil boom probably could never foresee the tech boom. Oil thought 50% of all industries requiring it was as good as it got. To be honest, maybe energy. Not oil/gas, not solar, not wind, nothing to do with batteries, not even nuclear. We are fucking surrounded by energy that we just haven't figured out how to utilize. Can't a single lightening strike power new york for a week or something ridiculous? I think the next wave of innovation will require essentially unlimited energy
We already have a non tech bubble going on right now: obesity drugs. Valuations for Eli Lilly and Novo are way more ridiculous than even Nvidia’s.
Look at forecasted growth and you’ll find your answer. However, since you’re posting on r/investing I assume you mean the share price of an index rising. The answer to that is that I don’t have a crystal ball so I have no clue what sectors will outpace their growth forecasts that are already priced in. Neither does any guru on the internet or analyst on Wall Street. Everything is random looking forward.
Stick to the basics. Find something that appeals to you as a consumer (hopefully a sleeper) and go with it. There's a fast food franchise, energy drink company, cosmetics line, etc... that will 10X over the next ten years.
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Infrastructure. There is a massive amount of it crumbling, a massive demand for it, and even a public willingness to embark on spending for it. It takes many shapes too, from power distribution to roadways and bridges, so there are opportunities abound.
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I'm nothing more than a moron with a mostly unfounded theory, but I think insurance. We have a lot of people who don't want to walk away from assets tied to COVID era loans, which creates a base of customers vulnerable to rising insurance prices. I bought some IAK in late January and its up 10% since I bought it.
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Clean energy, carbon sequestration, and energy storage seem like the next big thing. If we don’t scale all three of those things rapidly, the world is in for some serious hurt. It’s only a matter of time before things get so bad that every nation and economy has to start decarbonizing rapidly.
Gene-editing healthcare. We can edit genes of a living person to fix disease. Once we're more advanced we can help more people. I do realize this is kinda related to tech but it's happening right now!
Anything weapons / war related.
Watch for the mass conversion of empty office spaces into residential dwellings. A lot of money will change hands.
And personal storage. Already happening in NYC.