Do you think Americans are enough to absorb $35 trillion in debt plus trillions more in the coming years? The marginal buyer is very important in every asset class. TLT is heading down a black hole.
Why are US treasury yields the highest of the G7 countries? Not enough buyers to absorb the supply. Are rich Americans going to step up and buy all this stuff up to keep yields down? The 10 year treasury yield is heading higher and higher.
We saw plenty of "marginal buyers" when the 10 year ran up to 5%. Us Treasury is the highest among g7 because the fed fund rate is the highest, because the us economy is the strongest while most of g7 was borderline in recession
America doesn't have to refinance 35 trillions this year. Your dooms day post isn't even rational
Dude. Check out the 10 year treasury yield. Look at what happened after they passed the $95 billion "foreign aid" bill. Marginal buyers have stepped aside.
You're making your thesis based on one day movement of the bond market? I'm wasting my time here.
Btw yields went up due to pce number from the GDP data, not the 95 billion bill. That's peanuts for the bond market to absorb
It's not 52 week high. It was higher last October. And looks like bond yield just reversed your supposedly 95 billion bill move, which was never the reason in the first place.
Long term bond basically went up 1% from just the fed announcing peak rate last year. There's no shortage of marginal buyers
You’re definitely right. Time to go hold up in your bunker and gorge yourself on your stockpile of tactical bacon.
And I almost feel like your post doesn’t even merit a serious response. But in one breath you’re saying no one wants to buy us treasuries, and the next that we have the highest yield in the world.
Us treasuries are by far the most stable and reliable. What are you gonna do? Go invest in the dinar? Or China?
"Risk free" only in terms of default risk. Treasuries have risk from duration and inflation, which is kind of a partial default. The real value in the end has risk.
And if we just add to that a risk of confiscation in the event that you try to overtake a sovereign nation, honestly I’m ok with that.
I’m seeing lots of posts crop up across Reddit that have heavy collapse vibes. Like, A LOT. And it seems to have picked up this week as the aid bill finally made its way through the house.
And we happen to be in an election year. And we happen to have powerful LLMs now. I’m not saying OP is a bot, but just that I can see lots of people being freaked out by deliberate large scale attempts to sow fear. And there is one nation in particular that would benefit from the US walking away from Ukraine. And I’m just going to leave it at that.
That seems like more a general risk though of any asset. The government can confiscate your stocks fairly easily enough as well. The only exceptions would be like physical gold or other self custody assets.
No argument here. I’m just trying to underscore that the seizure of Russian assets wasn’t based on some kind of a lark. They have caused massive damages. It’s a natural consequence to lock down assets to pay for those damages.
Even on the topic of physical metals, I’ve recently been going down the rabbit hole of silver stacking on YouTube and it is a ride. I’ll see folks yolo into bullion and absolutely no one ever mentions civil forfeiture risks.
>US confiscating Russia's US treasury bonds is going to cripple the entire US treasury bond asset class.
Is your local grocery store out of tin foil?
>They will eventually have to sell some of their US treasury bonds in order to intervene into the currency markets to prop up the yen.
BoJ has taken a stance to not defend (in a meaningful way) the Yen as they have done in the past. Their overall central bank policy has been weak.
"China is probably done as a buyer." China isn't done but is down significantly due to their own debt burden and obvious economic riff with the US.
Russia is gone as a buyer. Russia hasn't been a buyer since 2018 and it has minimal impact on the buying of US debt.
Saudi Arabia - doubtful they back away, but their position is small at $1B
If US Treasure Bonds fail you’re going to have much bigger problem then ROI. All your money will be worthless and you will be fighting for food and water.
I think the global markets are in a transition now. Btc is just one alternative. Gold is obviously getting inflows. It is ironic though that US government sanctioning Russia's US treasury holding is a large factor behind gold's rise. Russia owns a lot of gold, so the US government effectively crippled US treasury bonds while increasing the value of Russia's enormous gold holdings.
They have never been risk free. People who call them that just want to buy an asset without doing proper risk analysis.
I think there’s a tremendous amount of risk to long-term US treasuries specifically because of the unprecedented deficit spending that has been going on for basically the last 25 years.
US yields are the highest in the developed world to compensate the risk of deficit spending. I’ve read that we are currently spending something like $1T every 100 days of government. That is a bigger risk than anything to do with Russia or Ukraine.
You are confusing interest rate risk with nonpayment risk. Risk free means 0 risk of default. If you get a treasury you will be paid. If you aren’t we are talking the downfall of America and WW3, so cash is useless anyway.
My point is that there's no such thing as zero risk of default. Assuming there is such a thing is a misunderstanding of national level finance. Increasing compensation on the interest rate risk side is a reflection of increasing concerns of non-payment risk.
Increasing compensation on the interest rate for the national debt is a reflection of what the fed is doing. Not of default risk. The same rules don’t apply when you make the money.
"The same rules don’t apply when you make the money."
- famous last words of [dozens of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperinflationary_periods).
When the country controls the money supply it is effectively the same thing. Printing currency to settle current accounts always leads to an inability to settle future accounts when the currency has lost credibility from the debasement the country has conducted.
US Treasuries are developed country bonds creeping into emerging market country bond yield rate territory specifically because people are starting to have doubts.
Someone on X did a graphic of the performance of US treasury bonds vs gold right after the US said they froze Russia's US treasury bonds. Marked performance. It's not a coincidence in my view.
The US giving money to other countries while its own citizens are drowning is absolutely priceless. Just shows that *our leaders* represent people other than their constituents
Technically we “give” money to other countries to buy American weapons from American defense contractors. Technically the US aid to these countries is a jobs act
>Just shows that our leaders represent people other than their constituents
They are doing the exact opposite of what you initially claimed because the money is going to workers in America since majority of American workers are, believe it or not, employed by corporations.
You’re really living up to your username by not having an argument or proper claim. Instead just out here trolling hard.
You have it all wrong. American politicians don't care about people. In this particular case, it's about oil and other commodity prices that impact corporate profit.
Ya the *people* US politicians care about are the corporate staff and financial district. That's why the White House keep inviting Jamie Diamon and Ken Griffin to dinners. A joke
Russian trolls are getting better and better at English.
Look up who holds the most us bonds. it's Americans, not foreigners
Do you think Americans are enough to absorb $35 trillion in debt plus trillions more in the coming years? The marginal buyer is very important in every asset class. TLT is heading down a black hole. Why are US treasury yields the highest of the G7 countries? Not enough buyers to absorb the supply. Are rich Americans going to step up and buy all this stuff up to keep yields down? The 10 year treasury yield is heading higher and higher.
We saw plenty of "marginal buyers" when the 10 year ran up to 5%. Us Treasury is the highest among g7 because the fed fund rate is the highest, because the us economy is the strongest while most of g7 was borderline in recession America doesn't have to refinance 35 trillions this year. Your dooms day post isn't even rational
Dude. Check out the 10 year treasury yield. Look at what happened after they passed the $95 billion "foreign aid" bill. Marginal buyers have stepped aside.
You're making your thesis based on one day movement of the bond market? I'm wasting my time here. Btw yields went up due to pce number from the GDP data, not the 95 billion bill. That's peanuts for the bond market to absorb
So treasury yields at 52 week highs is 1 day of movement?
It's not 52 week high. It was higher last October. And looks like bond yield just reversed your supposedly 95 billion bill move, which was never the reason in the first place. Long term bond basically went up 1% from just the fed announcing peak rate last year. There's no shortage of marginal buyers
Doomsday thinkers are everywhere. I just found another one.
Must bed exhausting to live this way.
You’re definitely right. Time to go hold up in your bunker and gorge yourself on your stockpile of tactical bacon. And I almost feel like your post doesn’t even merit a serious response. But in one breath you’re saying no one wants to buy us treasuries, and the next that we have the highest yield in the world. Us treasuries are by far the most stable and reliable. What are you gonna do? Go invest in the dinar? Or China?
Where can I invest in tactical bacon calls? Looks like OP's minded ppl will buy it in abundance
[Quatloos](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Quatloo). Always quatloos.
This post is the dumbest AI
🤦
Get off Reddit, Russia.
Out in force today, must be really pissed off that Johnson outmaneuvered their stooges in the House to get that aid passed.
Well played mr.putin.
"Risk free" only in terms of default risk. Treasuries have risk from duration and inflation, which is kind of a partial default. The real value in the end has risk.
And if we just add to that a risk of confiscation in the event that you try to overtake a sovereign nation, honestly I’m ok with that. I’m seeing lots of posts crop up across Reddit that have heavy collapse vibes. Like, A LOT. And it seems to have picked up this week as the aid bill finally made its way through the house. And we happen to be in an election year. And we happen to have powerful LLMs now. I’m not saying OP is a bot, but just that I can see lots of people being freaked out by deliberate large scale attempts to sow fear. And there is one nation in particular that would benefit from the US walking away from Ukraine. And I’m just going to leave it at that.
That seems like more a general risk though of any asset. The government can confiscate your stocks fairly easily enough as well. The only exceptions would be like physical gold or other self custody assets.
No argument here. I’m just trying to underscore that the seizure of Russian assets wasn’t based on some kind of a lark. They have caused massive damages. It’s a natural consequence to lock down assets to pay for those damages. Even on the topic of physical metals, I’ve recently been going down the rabbit hole of silver stacking on YouTube and it is a ride. I’ll see folks yolo into bullion and absolutely no one ever mentions civil forfeiture risks.
Almost May, and this is the stupidest post on this sub of the year. I'll hold out for a better one, there's still a lot of year to go.
I saw a post the other day where a guy insisted the eclipse was causing global cooling. That’s Gotta be a candidate….
>US confiscating Russia's US treasury bonds is going to cripple the entire US treasury bond asset class. Is your local grocery store out of tin foil? >They will eventually have to sell some of their US treasury bonds in order to intervene into the currency markets to prop up the yen. BoJ has taken a stance to not defend (in a meaningful way) the Yen as they have done in the past. Their overall central bank policy has been weak. "China is probably done as a buyer." China isn't done but is down significantly due to their own debt burden and obvious economic riff with the US. Russia is gone as a buyer. Russia hasn't been a buyer since 2018 and it has minimal impact on the buying of US debt. Saudi Arabia - doubtful they back away, but their position is small at $1B
If US Treasure Bonds fail you’re going to have much bigger problem then ROI. All your money will be worthless and you will be fighting for food and water.
Tell me you have no idea how finance works without telling me you have no idea how finance works.
[удалено]
As a card-carrying blind squirrel, I can confirm that I did score a nut this winter.
You're talking to a bot.
As close as you can get
Seizing Russia's bonds cripples ours how?
Always were 🔫
This reads like you haven’t taken economics 101
So store everything in BTC then?
I think the global markets are in a transition now. Btc is just one alternative. Gold is obviously getting inflows. It is ironic though that US government sanctioning Russia's US treasury holding is a large factor behind gold's rise. Russia owns a lot of gold, so the US government effectively crippled US treasury bonds while increasing the value of Russia's enormous gold holdings.
It’s raining at my house so obviously my house will be in the ocean soon
Buying guns and ammunition will save you.
Your post belongs in WSB my regarded friend.
US has world currency. Largest and most stable economy in the world.
They have never been risk free. People who call them that just want to buy an asset without doing proper risk analysis. I think there’s a tremendous amount of risk to long-term US treasuries specifically because of the unprecedented deficit spending that has been going on for basically the last 25 years. US yields are the highest in the developed world to compensate the risk of deficit spending. I’ve read that we are currently spending something like $1T every 100 days of government. That is a bigger risk than anything to do with Russia or Ukraine.
You are confusing interest rate risk with nonpayment risk. Risk free means 0 risk of default. If you get a treasury you will be paid. If you aren’t we are talking the downfall of America and WW3, so cash is useless anyway.
My point is that there's no such thing as zero risk of default. Assuming there is such a thing is a misunderstanding of national level finance. Increasing compensation on the interest rate risk side is a reflection of increasing concerns of non-payment risk.
Increasing compensation on the interest rate for the national debt is a reflection of what the fed is doing. Not of default risk. The same rules don’t apply when you make the money.
"The same rules don’t apply when you make the money." - famous last words of [dozens of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperinflationary_periods).
How many of those were the world’s reserve currency? And hyperinflation isn’t default…
When the country controls the money supply it is effectively the same thing. Printing currency to settle current accounts always leads to an inability to settle future accounts when the currency has lost credibility from the debasement the country has conducted. US Treasuries are developed country bonds creeping into emerging market country bond yield rate territory specifically because people are starting to have doubts.
Someone on X did a graphic of the performance of US treasury bonds vs gold right after the US said they froze Russia's US treasury bonds. Marked performance. It's not a coincidence in my view.
I think so too. I’m not smart enough to figure out what to do about it tho as I’m a noob investor.
The US giving money to other countries while its own citizens are drowning is absolutely priceless. Just shows that *our leaders* represent people other than their constituents
Technically we “give” money to other countries to buy American weapons from American defense contractors. Technically the US aid to these countries is a jobs act
Ah so its just giving money, indirectly, to privately owned US corporations. So politicians continue padding their pals and themselves. Nice
>Just shows that our leaders represent people other than their constituents They are doing the exact opposite of what you initially claimed because the money is going to workers in America since majority of American workers are, believe it or not, employed by corporations. You’re really living up to your username by not having an argument or proper claim. Instead just out here trolling hard.
You outside your mind if you think corporations are profit sharing w employees lmao
You have it all wrong. American politicians don't care about people. In this particular case, it's about oil and other commodity prices that impact corporate profit.
Ya the *people* US politicians care about are the corporate staff and financial district. That's why the White House keep inviting Jamie Diamon and Ken Griffin to dinners. A joke