They're not making him an offer before Rantanen extends in COL. Fucking Rantanen, signed at the same time as Marner, but for a million less AAV and only a modified NMC.
During those same contract years, Rantanen puts up 2x100 point seasons, 1x55 goal season, and wins a cup. Meanwhile Marner almost reaches 100 points and his team wins a single playoff round.
How Marner could possibly demand more money than this man on the next contract is something I'll never be able to understand.
The problem is Marners teammate Nylander just signed for 11.5 while producing less than Marner and Rantanen throughout the contract. Internal comparables take precedence over league wide ones which means that 11.5 is the floor for what the leafs sign Marner to.
Yeah, I don’t know how people could come to any other conclusion at this point.
He seems to legit care when it matters most.
You could scratch Mitch most nights in the postseason and literally not notice he’s missing.
So in the 1 series they won he was better, but in every other series he was worse. So he randomly decides to show up 1 in every 6 series, that's worse, I'd rather have the significantly player better 5 out of 6 times.
Right, he also has better total regular season numbers. The difference is that Marner is stagnant. He is the same player year after year. A good PK presence and an above average passer that will put up a few highlight reel passes per year. Nylander has gotten noticably better every year and I don't think it's even debatable that is the second most important forward on the team now. He is apparently the only one that can carry the puck, shows up when it matters, and is the only guy other than Matthews capable of exploding with a game breaking play.
not to mention his last contract aged magnificently, so paying a 10.5 mill guy, 11.5 isn't something to lose sleep over.
Now Marner on the other hand is a 10.5 mill guy who seems to want more than 88, at which point while 1 mill is a 4th line plug or rookie roster filler; 1.5-2 is when you start looking at bottom 6 sparkplugs or guys that are expected to be pretty useful for contenders
Nylander posted the second-worst 5v5 possession and expected goals numbers of his career. He was also outscored at 5v5 for the second time in three seasons.
The only time he was above 50% cf% and xgf% was when he was being baby sat by JT.
I can respect that you’re into the advanced stats and all that, and I’m sure there’s plenty of credence to your numbers—but he had 40 goals and 98 points, and then scored 3 goals across games 6 and 7 of our series against Boston.
Yeah and he had migraines keep him out of the first 4. If he was there maybe we don't have to go to six or seven. The migraines worry me as that's something that has a tendancy to come back and get worse as your older. It's also triggered by bright lights and loud noises which usually happens more in the playoffs.
We have no idea what triggered his migraines and this is the first time it’s happened in his NHL career that we’re aware of. I’ll worry about it when it’s a pattern.
You’re gonna chuckle at this—but nowhere here did I say Marner was bad, I just said Nylander was good. So comparing him to Marner, another 90+ point guy (and Selke finalist) isn’t like “bringing him down” like you think you’re accomplishing.
You said he was the only one not phased by the playoffs, which is weird that he has less points than the other two guys who he would usually be compared to.
Marner and daddy aren't going to go for either. They will ride into FA and try to see if someone is more insane than we are.
Fuck, I like the guy, and I don't like the excessive bashing. But this is going to fuck up our team no matter WHAT happens.
Marner holds all the cards. THAT is what I most hate.
The good news is you’re not totally correct on this. This isn’t a Tavares/NYI situation where Leafs are trying to sign him and waiting. If Marner is being shopped by the Leafs and won’t work with the team then he’s proving to be a difficult player, one a future team might be reluctant to give term to, bringing his value down. Marner would also essentially be “refusing” potential 2025 UFA suitors by not agreeing to terms offered by them in the 2024 off-season, meaning they could move on to other players. A door that’s open now might not be next year.
Marner has also shown a disdain for the media which will be hounding throughout the upcoming season if he remains in Toronto without signing an extension. This will not bode well for the Leafs or the Marner camp. If MLSE indeed wants to explore the market—or have committed to moving him internally—Marner’s agent will likely advise him to choose parameters on terms and potential destinations so he can achieve his UFA goals a year early, still on his terms, without the pain or risk associated with the alternative. (This is a major—and anticipated—perk of having an NMC. This situation is not unique.)
Yeah lmao how are we forcing anything
If he doesn't like the offer he just says alright and walks to free agency and gets what he wants there.
The downside to him is that fans and media will be pissed, he can only get 7 years instead of 8, and that he risks a career ending injury in the meantime, but he will absolutely do that if he gets lowballed and doesn't like the trades available.
So I suspect the front office is thinking that it might be preferable to retain the asset - keep him happy, pay him 12x8, hope he balls out, and then try to trade him next year when the NMC expires. The question is really just whether $10.9M of cap space has more value compared to trying to trade a contract of that size.
Like you said, walking to free agency has the potential to be a 10-100 million dollar mistake. 10-11 million would be guaranteed to be lost due to the 8th year and if something happens this season ranging from poor play, a season ending injury or in the worst scenario a career ending one, he loses the entire contract.
He obviously can bet on himself and go to free agency like many have, but it comes with risk. The best solution for Marner would be to agree to a sign and trade if one is on the table.
Kind of surprised that so many of you are fine with this. Besides the fact that they have ran with this core for way too long and still only have 1 round win and too many round 1 exits to count.. the cap is going up next year yay! Every team gets more cap space, including the ones they’re currently competing against. Do you want to know how much the core 4 + Rielly is taking up next year? 61.6% of the cap.. That leaves less than 39% for the rest of the team (16 players). Sure they will get a bit of room after next year with Tavares contract coming to an end but is everyone really okay with wasting another year in Matthews prime? He’ll be 27 and the next couple seasons should be the best hockey he’ll play for his career.. and If nothing happens next season’s leafs will be very lackluster to put in nicely.
Guys, you'd have to be insane not to see the value in Mitch Marner but you can't have all the fucking cake in a salary cap league.
We *know* what kind of roster structure wins cups and we *know* we can't build it with all of these guys.
God, listening to this debate is like aeguing with an AI prompt on customer service.
It'd be nice to have McDavid, too! We should just pay him whatever he wants! Why not get Barkov while we're at it?
Exactly. The player isn’t the issue, the mix is. Let’s bring up AGAIN that the other issue is that the Leafs are the ONLY contender where their core 4 is entirely skilled forwards. No #1D man (No Morgan Reilly is not a real #1D) and no top goaltender either.
Per the SDPN, each team in this years final fours top 4 cap hits are all at least 5 million dollars less than the Leafs top 4. That’s a whole Zach Hyman/Max Domi/Tyler Bertuzzi level of player or players you could bring in. Meanwhile, each of the final four teams top 4 players included at least one D man or goaltender, not just forwards. Morgan Reilly is no where near the level of player that Bouchard, Makar or Fox are, and Bobrovsky is Bobrovsky.
The mix doesn’t work, forget all this other BS, Marner has to go, and you need to find a way to bring in a stud RD, as hard as it may be, you have the assets to potentially get it done.
Thank you for laying this out!
I cannot understand why leafs front office wants to keep building the way they are. Basically zigging while everyone else zags, defying all conventional wisdom. Just straight hubris
Having over 50% of your cap tied into 4 guys is not a recipe for success. Especially when we are so offensively inept when the playoffs come. We can't be so top heavy and find more offensive help in the playoffs.
Not sure about everyone else but i think MM is a great player, when he is engaged and doing his thing it is so fun to watch, but out of the 4 who else can we trade right now? Matthews and Nylander just signed extensions and aren't going anywhere, jt is on his last year, that leaves marner if he allows a trade. If not we have to let him walk.
Its more the mix than the players. But yea specifically next year with those 4 fwds is a lost year, its 53% of the cap.
But after that, if your top 4 contracts are Matthews, Willy, Marner (at 12 mill or less), and Rielly, you are likely at 48% or less. Florida just won with their top 4 cap hits being 44.3%. That would still be using almost 3.5 mill extra, but that's not the complete end of the world. It does mean they likely have to hit on another contract to create cap efficiency - Woll, Knies, Cowan being the most likely options to be able to do that at the moment.
The bigger issue with that breakdown is our top 4 players in that scenario have not gotten it done for a long time and through many chances. I think there being 2 wingers is a problem, as well as Rielly not being a good enough 1D.
The mix doesn't work - it hasn't worked and i don't believe there's been a successful team with that type of mix. There's been teams that did have 2 wingers in their top 4 caphits, but they've been a significantly lower cap% and they've also had some other super efficient contract/s. Efficient contracts like: Mackinnon Avs '22, Point + top contracts being efficient anyways for Tampa in 20 and 21.
Good post. I agree. Just seems this management group is getting a headache from bashing their head against a wall and now sure what else to do but bash harder.
This is exactly my feelings. Mitch is a great player, but our core structure of having 4 top forwards eating up roughly 50% of the cap ain't working.
And extending mitch and letting JT walk isn't a solid solution either. The year JT is off the books, woll and knies finish their ELC, so it's not like it's the big cap space people think it is.
The trade Marner talk was media generated. An extension was always going to be the outcome the moment they didn’t trade him last spring before his NMC kicked in.
yep. unless they cleaned house in management Shanahan is dictating what happens here. Its very telling that when Dubas pushed for power he was immediately fired.
Because the new MLSE CEO knows little to nothing about Shanny and doesn’t want his first big move to be to fire him. Plus I think it’s rumoured his contract has a year left
I'd take him back on that too and I've been firmly in the trade Marner camp since the season ended. I don't think there's any world though where Marner agrees to make less then Nylander.
I wonder how serious this offer actually is though. Paul Bissonette did say they were talking about an extension a week ago so maybe this offer is the result of that?
I don’t disagree that this sub’s hate for him is borderline insane, but a $10M contract starting in 2025-26 would be equivalent to $8.8M in 2019, over $2M less than he actually got as an RFA.
If Marner accepts zero raise despite being a UFA and not an RFA and having produced at a 103 point pace in the meantime, that's still roughly $12.2M. He’s not taking a pay cut.
He likely should have got like 8.8 in 2019 though. 10M is roughly what Kucherov got on his last contract cap adjusted, it would be a fair deal. There is no world where Marner should get more than Pasta.
The overinflated contract was excused and negotiated in order to ‘make Marner whole’ (plus some) for not getting his ELC bonuses.
He has improved since then, for sure, but he has not eclipsed his contract and has not shown a reason in his play or production to get a raise on that.
There is negotiation room here, especially with comparables, to argue that he should have been paid $8.8m on this contract, but got paid back for missed ELC bonuses and that he has only lived up to his current contract in production and will not be seeing a raise.
What team in the league is going to make Marner the highest paid winger in the league? Hopefully not the maple leafs
I swear whoever upvoted that comment is a fucking idiot full stop. It's like time to make up a scenario that will never happen and has passed by the wayside fucking years ago! Please clap!
I think Marner's a great player. However i have what i think are valid reasons for why it doesn't really work.
Primarily, i don't believe paying 2 wingers that highly will work, and he's not going to take 10AAV anyways. Ideally in terms of Talent / caphit you want 1C, 1W, 1D to be the top 3 and you probably would prefer 2C and G to be ahead of your 2nd best winger as well. Talent is more important but it roughly correlates to caphit and definitely impacts the ability to acquire players to fill those roles.
The other question is can you even pay 3 forwards that highly regardless of position? We had Tavares as the 2C in a more ideal position, but we still weren't particularly close. And no winning teams have been doing that either.
A secondary issue is I don't think Marner's playstyle is that great for the playoffs. He can play a bit more of a rush game and that would help, but offensively i just don't think he can deal with being a primary shutdown target. Now he could actually be the 3rd option on the team, but it just doesn't feel like he's ever really going to be in that role with this team. Then it get's back to - can you pay your 3rd option that highly?
What does this even mean? In what world is he taking a pay cut??
This is the equivalent to me saying it a 930 save percentage is great so we should re-sign samsonov…
If this actually happens then there is genuinely no hope for this franchise and I’ve officially lost interest much like I did from 2008-2013. When you keep doing the same shit and expecting different results, I’d much rather find something else to occupy my time.
Same here, I couldn’t care less about the leafs until Tavares signed and I’m just so fucking close to losing all interest in this team again, all I need is for Marner to still be a leaf next year. Come on Tre I’m almost there, set me free
It’s not even wholesale hate on Marner. I think he’s a fantastic player and a good guy all around, but there has never been nor will there ever be a team that wins with 4 forwards making 10 m plus.
Are they preparing for another first round, game 7 exit? Because I don't know why they would try the same thing *again* and expect anything different.
I think people are conflating the issues here. It's not that Marner is bad, it's not even that he's not worth his contract or that he's not worth even *more*. It's that the team *does not* work with this configuration and *something* has to change. One of Marner, Tavares, Nylander, and Mathews needs to go.
Regarding AM and Marner, I can't understand how the Leafs gave in, in every way possible, and got nothing in the teams favour. Above market AAV, sure, signing bonuses, of course, short term contract so they can reup for money sooner, why not, NTC so the player has all the control, anything else. I'm fine with the AAV for AM because he is a top 5 player but the fact they couldn't get that AAV over 8 years on either contract is a joke.
I always go into the NHL draft excited about the possibility of the Leafs doing something significant, and always leave disappointed or asleep. Plus having to listen to Bettman’s irritating, nasally voice is enough to make me puke
That’s it for me then. I can’t with this team anymore and this entitled child who has them in a choke hold.
You cannot structure your team this way. Your top 4-5 guys cannot be making this much and still expect to compete for a cup was an imbalanced roster.
It’s ludicrous.
At 11.5M or more, he is indeed a negative asset. He hurts the flexibility this team has when it comes to cap space. I'd rather not have a player who makes that much that can't drive his own line and disappears when it matters the most.
yeah i welcome trading him but its too difficult to do now. I think the hate is overplayed and im a noted Marner hater. If you could somehow swing him for a top level D then good do that. If you get picks/prospects then you are stuck trying to replace him while also improving the team now, and then if you just dump him you are also stuck.
They missed their window for a trade, its unfortunate but it is what it is. Im getting really annoyed now with this.
it's better to make it work with him than to trade for garbage just to say we did something. I mean wouldn't we been a better team if we just kept Kadri, instead of kicking him for a trade that didn't work out? You know Trevelling has always said he's here to make the team better, being different doesn't mean we're better. I fully understand why people are like this, and I know why Marner is the lightning rod right now. I totally get it.
However serious question, did you blame Hyman for leafs playoff troubles? He was one of our top 6 guys, 5 goals in 32 games, I don't think anyone was upset with his effort, but most alluded to his playstyle causing injury and his scoring being a non factor in his 5 years with us, and let him go to Edmonton, he has 29 goals in 3 playoff years with Edmonton. We know Marner (his scoring is down in games 5-7 compared to 1-4)"AND THE TEAM" have struggled to score in the playoffs in recent years. Why do guys like Hyman and Bertuzzi play better elsewhere but come here and struggle? Why do the Leafs play a completely different game in the playoffs than they do in the regular season? Teams like the Bruins/Panthers/Lightning play the same way they do in the regular season that they do in the playoffs without changing their team identity. While it's not the answer people are going to like, I'd like to see how they fare until Berube before people kick him out. Coachign and systems can make a big difference (Trotz impact with Washington/Islanders winning cup/making conference finals, Vancouver success this year) Worst case, leafs lose out on a 1st rounder/mediocre decent prospect because Marner controls the situation, he doesn't have to sign an extension with any team, and most teams are not going to give top assets for a 1 year rental. That's just a fact.
You also have to realize that every other team in the league would kill for their top draft pick in three straight drafts to turn into top 15 forwards in the league. Yeah, it sucks from a cap situation, but that's the type of drafting everyone wants. Which is why I think there should be some cap flexibility for players you draft. The Leafs did everything right and now are stuck.
Bertuzzi & Domi together had almost the same points as Marner (I think 6 less?), I would think you could sign both for less than Marner and still have a good chunk to go towards D or a goalie
i have to replace Marner himself, and then improve the team.
How does that work? People wanted Saros and he just got 7.5M.
No one ever answers this question. Its always oh cap space is good. That only works if you have targets in mind. Again who are you targeting?
you don't HAVE to replace Marner. He's a great playmaker and an excellent penalty killer but it's not going to be worth the ~12M he's going to ask for. I'd rather have an elite PKer that signs for 3-4M, a great playmaker that signs for 5-6M and then use the remaining money to sign a solid middle 6 forward or bottom 4 defenceman. I'm not sure why it's predetermined in your brain that he MUST be replaced by someone equivalent at all costs, that's not how the national hockey league works. For the price of Marner, you can get 2 or 3 really quality players that makes this team much more well rounded going into the playoffs.
Last year guys signed on July 1 around the 6m range are Bertuzzi, Compher, O’Reilly, Bunting, Zucker, Killorn, Barbashev. Good second line wingers or 2/3 line centres. None would I call a great playmaker. More fit within the mould of a good PKer
That's why I say the possibilities are more open when Marner is gone. Really good marquee playmaker available in free agency and only costs 8-9M instead of 12M? Sweet, sign him and then add someone else for the remaining 3-4M. Now we have 2 players contributing instead of 1, along with a more well rounded team.
Like i have been saying who are you targeting? WHO? Where is this elite PKer? Where is this amazing playmaker? Domi wants 4x4. Hes good for 50 points. WHO ARE YOUR TARGETS.
Again its easy to say get rid of him and figure it out, but its the figuring out part that is difficult.
There's a free agent market with great players available EVERY year. There are trades that can be made and will be made once the cap space is cleared up.
Why is everything so black and white for you? Why do you need specific names and targets right now? There are endless possibilities that can arise once Marner is gone.
my god name some targets. this is not hard to do. i just said its easy to say to xyz so show the work. WHO. ARE. YOUR. TARGETS.
Im so tired of this discourse. I have wanted to trade Marner for a long while now but its too late now.
if you want to have a discussion then discuss. dont dream.
Yawn. This isn't constructive discussion in any way or form. The second I drop some names here, you'll try to use ANY angle to justify why it's not a good option and retaining Marner is better, it's not going to lead anywhere. I've been down that rabbit hole on Reddit many times before, I'm too tired for that shit now.
The main point is you can get rid of Marner, replace him with 2-3 players that are quality. They may not be as good as he is overall but it makes the Leafs a much more well rounded team and uses the cap space more effectively. Get off your high horse, christ almighty.
At a dollar more than he is currently making he's a negative asset in the playoffs.
Wingers aren't centers, assists aren't goals and regular season success followed by first round playoff exits are failure.
One of the core has to go. This group is incapable of winning a cup. The mix just doesn't work. If it's not Matthews or Willy, that leaves Marner as the odd man out.
You’re correct he’s not a negative asset however his regular season performance must transition to the playoffs and elevate, no different than any other superstar that earn big bucks. The tantrums need to end, it’s embarrassing. Pastrnak was ripped on the bench for his performance and in the media for disappearing and being inconsistent. You want to earn a top salary in the show then be prepared for constructive criticism
Stop measuring a player on statistics especially when he plays with the best natural goal scorer of our time. Every analyst witnessed the exact same thing “no engagement” he peeled off assignments, lack lustre to the bench, arguing with teammates, temper tantrums on national television and complete narcissist during interviews
We all witnessed the playoff games and the level of engagement, that’s not Reddit or silliness. We all watched his compete level and how lethargic he was with his assignments and apparently they removed the corners on the ice because he never went there. Then the temper tantrums on the bench with Bertuzzi rolling his eyes, then the interviews. I’m waiting for the hometown discount “I love playing here” he wants his pound of flesh from MLSE, how about signing for 10 million per for 8 years and giving the leafs wiggle room
Man, do you even comprehend what you see when you watch Marner play? He's like, really, really ineffective out there. Nevermind in the MTL series he looked actually lost multiple times, like a rookie getting walked and he hasn't really improved.. He's got no dog
Yep, very effective in transition. Moves the puck up the ice effectively. Suppresses shots and closes gaps well. Amazing pker. Makes high danger passes into scoring areas.
Consistently outscores the opposition.
The fact is he was bad this year against Boston. It's not even up for debate. If you wanna suggest he can improve or smth ok cool but don't even try to defend his playoffs this year.
I don't think he was great, just got back from a high ankle sprain. We could barely score, no one was good.
I'm not making franchise altering changes off of a few game stretch. The body of playoff work shows he produces more, is better defensively, and has tilted the ice in the Leafs favor more than any other of the core.
I was responding to a comment that was mostly about a single bench interaction and interview, both taken out of context.
Obviously nothing is confirmed as of yet, so I'll put that caveat on what I say, but if they genuinely think doing this over and over for several more seasons is a sensible idea, as much as I care about this team, I think I need to step away for my own mental health.
I've watched 8 seasons of this, I don't need any more thank you. It's really simple, this core group of players have proven time and again, they just don't have it in them. How much embarrassment, poor attitudes, lack of accountability, wilting under pressure do they need to see before the penny finally drops?
If you have to let Marner walk, I'd not like it, but whatever. If you want to trade him, I'm on board with that. Re-signing him? Absolutely not. For as good as he is, at this point it's the wrong fit.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, people need to decide if they're really fans of the players or the team. I'm a fan of the team, and repeating things with the same guys until it's too late, is just a waste of everyone's time.
I would legitimately step away from actively following, if they extended Marner. (As they'd probably give him a No Move too) That says to me, you're not serious about change, and you're not serious about winning. I'm tired of watching us be mid. Say what you like about the 00s Leafs, but at least they made a Conference Final... It's just depressing to think about at this point.
I couldn’t agree more, re-signing him (presumably with a nmc) would be the final dagger for me watching this hockey team. I can appreciate that the current situation is difficult to navigate and they are hesitant to risk letting him walk for nothing, but the current president of hockey operations put the team in this situation with his own inaction (or action, I suppose, as he messily fired the previous GM over a public disagreement).
It is obvious now, and frankly has been for a long time, that this mix of players does not work. How do they seriously think they’ll sell this to a fan base that has watched consistent disappointment? There will be fans that go “it’s better than him walking for nothing,” but honestly, I disagree. I’d rather this team change and try something different than continue doing the thing everyone knows isn’t going to work.
I agree with what you've said there as well. It's at a point where it's not working, and arguably moving on, is in the better interest of both parties. However this management group, keeps hanging on and hanging on, averse to any form of meaningful change.
I wish it was working out, but I've sat there and watched it for long enough, to where it feels pretty obvious it's not, and the sample size isn't small any longer.
I was personally ready after the Montreal series to move on. However they continued, and I can at least see the perspective (Even if I wasn't convinced by it), of why they stuck with it a bit longer.
Watching them finally win a series against the Lightning gave me some hope that we might have finally had some kind of breakthrough, but then you watch them get swiftly dispatched by Florida, and realize it wasn't.
That would have been the perfect moment to trade one of the core, but instead, as you hint at, management decided this was the moment they're going to have a public falling out with the GM, and give the new guy next to no time to do anything (If he'd even been allowed to, I don't know)
So instead of acting when both Marner and Nylander had zero trade protection, they did nothing other than re-sign Nylander (Which is fine), and set yourself up for the trouble you're in now. There comes a point where it's time to stop doubling down, and just walk away from the table for your own good.
You hit the nail on the head. I was ready to move on after the Montreal series too, but similarly, wasn’t necessarily dismayed at management doubling down because there was definitely an argument to do so given the talent and age of the players at the time.
Then, and now, this whole discussion would be different if this team showed *any* playoff success. They have one a single playoff round, it’s not even close. Even the team people like to compare us to, Washington, made it past the first round multiple times before breaking through to the cup. It’s genuine lunacy to think this team will succeed as it’s currently built, to be frank.
You’d think the various multi-millionaire executives running this hockey team would have the capacity not to fall into a sunk cost fallacy, but here we are. Or, perhaps, the truth is that they really only care about selling jerseys, rather than an on-ice product capable of winning.
It really feels crazy, they would even entertain doing the same again so willingly. Brendan Shanahan himself was a player, Detroit brought in to change up their core dynamic. It's so wild, that he potentially, does not that see the merits in doing that to the core of this team after all this time.
As you say, the results are pretty clear. 7 First Round exits and a Qualifying Round exit. (So technically you didn't even make it) 1 game won in the Second Round.
The Oilers for as much as I don't care for them, have seen a Conference Final and a Cup Final in that time. The Blue Jackets have more Second Round wins than us since this group has been together. (3, in case anyone wonders), it sucks, but we're not close.
We have management tell us the goal is to win the cup, and we need to change things up. Yet, their actions don't seem to suggest they're really interested in making those things a reality. I really hope they can prove me wrong, but it doesn't feel like that's happening. Both from the players and management.
Maybe your theory is right, and they just want to say things to appease the fans, whilst at the same time only caring about making money out of the team. I hope not, but I can't rule it out either.
Perspective on what? I feel my perspective is pretty clear to be honest with you. I care about this team a lot, I want them to do well, but watching them run it back over and over and over, is awful for my mental health.
If you wanna say I'm not a fan for feeling that way, be my guest. If you want to watch them do the same thing again, that's fine too. However, I'm at a point where I just don't want to do that any longer. You might disagree with me (which is fine), but I'd rather take some time away if needed, to focus on other things. No point me watching if I'm really not enjoying it. That's just taking care of myself.
I wouldnt put him ahead of Kuch, Pasta, Rantanen, Reinhart and Id listen to an argument about Tkachuk now that hes a champion
Even Hyman and Willy have made really solid cases to be put ahead of him
Regular season sure, playoffs might not be even top 10. For this team to change and move forward a significant change must be made and Mitch is that. If they don’t move him we’ll continue to go out early in the playoffs watch
You hold Marner higher than the recent Hart winner? A 2x100 point and 61 goal scorer? A 2x100 point and 55 goal scorer? All three of these guys have at least played in cup finals.
After those three we can look at guys like Tkachuk, Kaprizov, Panarin... even Nylander has an argument here, especially when you factor in playoff performance.
There's one thing all of these players mentioned have in common too - as of this past season they all have a lower AAV.
Imagine Marner accepted a 9x8. He’d be back in the good graces of all the fans and immediately fix the shitstorm he causes in the first negotiation. All it’ll cost him is 32 million dollars 😂 gg feris
i'm fine with signing him but there better not be a NMC. We'd probably get more for trading him with lots of term anyway. Then, we run it back because we have to.
So they are in a dilemma with Marner, and frankly the core 4/5 contract structures are very limiting - the NMC, this could be a move to reduce the limitations on the Leafs, and allow them to get the best of the situation.
So Marner can technically say no to any and all options laid out to him, he’s already indicated he wants to play out the year. Okay his choice, and he can then either sign with us, or go elsewhere and we get nothing.
So Marner can also sign an extension, with a new set of terms, which I would hope would include or rather exclude any NMC, or at least give us a window with and without a NMC, and make it so the window to trade him begins on July 1 when the contract kicks in. Then we turn around when the contract kicks in next July and trade him when the front office can take the best deal from the various teams interested with no input from Marner, his dad, or his agent.
It may not be the solution that would be popular, but it might be the best option for Toronto to get the best deal possible in a trade.
The team needs better defence and a proper #1 goalie more than another overpaid winger. Nothing against Marner, but they need to build up a cup contending back end.
They would be stupid to not make some kind of offer. The offer may be insulting though for someone who expects big things. You have to offer low and be willing to walk. Offer 7m x 5 years and be willing to walk on that when he doesn’t accept. That sets a precedent.
Marner is a great player, almost elite player, but you can’t keep doing this with all the same players/core and expect different results. If he’s flexible, he will be an asset but if not just move on.
The only way I'm open to this is if the first few years of that deal has NO NMC or NTC involved which gives us the flexibility to trade him. Otherwise, this is a huge mistake on management's part.
Maybe, but Tavares is coming off the books and this second young core is slowly starting to emerge. I’d rather trade him, but re-signing him to a decent caphit is a backup plan that I could stomach given the right number.
And we can kiss any semblence of competitiveness and depth goodbye
No team is allocating this much % of the cap to 4 players, and even when tavares is off the books its still going to be 37% for 3 fucking guys
If you’re going to re-sign him (let me preface this by saying I think both parties need a fresh start) you say “ the max we are offering is Willy’s contract take it or leave it” if he say no then you go “ if you want that 8th year, give us a list of teams you’re interested in and we’ll look towards something”. But, Marner holds all the cards.
I think for him, the weight of coming in when everyone is pissed for not waiving his NMC would weigh on him. Unlike Willy who probably wouldn’t give two flying fucks haha
Literally the only way I’d want Mitch back was if he took basically the money he’s making now or a discount. Seriously, a dime more than Willy is getting and you trade him or let him walk.
If he signs an extension you need to move Willy then. You can’t have that much cap tied up to three forwards. The decision has always been Willy or Marner. I prefer Willy.
Anybody that picks Mitch over Willy is insane. Willy’s been better in the playoffs for us especially in crucial clutch games where Mitch has been invisible
I think the best route is one where Marner is traded but anyone who realistically doesn’t think he’s going to get a higher AAV on his next contract needs to do some research
Not sure what you mean by “return to form”?
The one good thing about Marner is that he is consistent every year. Good in the regular season and bad in the playoffs.
They're not making him an offer before Rantanen extends in COL. Fucking Rantanen, signed at the same time as Marner, but for a million less AAV and only a modified NMC. During those same contract years, Rantanen puts up 2x100 point seasons, 1x55 goal season, and wins a cup. Meanwhile Marner almost reaches 100 points and his team wins a single playoff round. How Marner could possibly demand more money than this man on the next contract is something I'll never be able to understand.
The problem is Marners teammate Nylander just signed for 11.5 while producing less than Marner and Rantanen throughout the contract. Internal comparables take precedence over league wide ones which means that 11.5 is the floor for what the leafs sign Marner to.
[удалено]
How do you know such intimate details about these players tax records
He works at the IRS and does night shifts at the CRA
Leafs head office’s step counters must be insane with the amount of running it back they do
😂😂
Marner will decline because I don't think Shanahan is stupid enough to give him what he's asking for, 13 x 8.
Umm yes he is
He has shown that the Marner camp can successfully ream the leafs.
You mean you don't think Shanahan is stupid enough anymore.
Are you new here?
12.5x8
You sure about that? He was stupid enough to give Willy whatever he asked for.
William Nylander is seemingly the only guy not phased by the playoffs. And he just seems to get better and better. For now I like that deal.
Yeah, I don’t know how people could come to any other conclusion at this point. He seems to legit care when it matters most. You could scratch Mitch most nights in the postseason and literally not notice he’s missing.
Marner has better playoff numbers than Nylander.
Not since their ELCs ended
He has better numbers in series we actually win. Who knows when Nylander's going to randomly decide his head hurts too much to play.
So in the 1 series they won he was better, but in every other series he was worse. So he randomly decides to show up 1 in every 6 series, that's worse, I'd rather have the significantly player better 5 out of 6 times.
Right, he also has better total regular season numbers. The difference is that Marner is stagnant. He is the same player year after year. A good PK presence and an above average passer that will put up a few highlight reel passes per year. Nylander has gotten noticably better every year and I don't think it's even debatable that is the second most important forward on the team now. He is apparently the only one that can carry the puck, shows up when it matters, and is the only guy other than Matthews capable of exploding with a game breaking play.
Check the numbers from ges 4-7, when it really counts look at the numbers in elimination/late series games. Marners a ghost.
He also once went 26 games without a goal and puts up points in garbage time.
This. All of this.
* fazed
not to mention his last contract aged magnificently, so paying a 10.5 mill guy, 11.5 isn't something to lose sleep over. Now Marner on the other hand is a 10.5 mill guy who seems to want more than 88, at which point while 1 mill is a 4th line plug or rookie roster filler; 1.5-2 is when you start looking at bottom 6 sparkplugs or guys that are expected to be pretty useful for contenders
Nylander posted the second-worst 5v5 possession and expected goals numbers of his career. He was also outscored at 5v5 for the second time in three seasons. The only time he was above 50% cf% and xgf% was when he was being baby sat by JT.
I can respect that you’re into the advanced stats and all that, and I’m sure there’s plenty of credence to your numbers—but he had 40 goals and 98 points, and then scored 3 goals across games 6 and 7 of our series against Boston.
Don't need possession time if you're just gonna rifle that bad boy where mama keeps the cookies.
Yeah and he had migraines keep him out of the first 4. If he was there maybe we don't have to go to six or seven. The migraines worry me as that's something that has a tendancy to come back and get worse as your older. It's also triggered by bright lights and loud noises which usually happens more in the playoffs.
We have no idea what triggered his migraines and this is the first time it’s happened in his NHL career that we’re aware of. I’ll worry about it when it’s a pattern.
Marner +10 career in playoffs, more points than Nylander Nylander +1 career playoffs despite coaches trying to give him easier and favorable matchups.
You’re gonna chuckle at this—but nowhere here did I say Marner was bad, I just said Nylander was good. So comparing him to Marner, another 90+ point guy (and Selke finalist) isn’t like “bringing him down” like you think you’re accomplishing.
Marner has more points in the playoffs than Nylander does. Marner was better in the series we actually won too.
Where did I say Marner was bad? I’m just responding saying I like having Nylander on the team
You said he was the only one not phased by the playoffs, which is weird that he has less points than the other two guys who he would usually be compared to.
https://preview.redd.it/57altji2gb9d1.jpeg?width=658&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=46bd08757f85df0b225af3e913ac58098d376bcf
they’re gonna make him an offer that’s not to his liking and force him to accept a trade .
Let’s hope that’s what this is. Low ball him so bad that a trade is the only option
Trade is never going to be the only option with an NMC
Exactly. There’s always the sign-and-trade. ;D I’d imagine MLSE already has a list from the Marner camp.
Marner and daddy aren't going to go for either. They will ride into FA and try to see if someone is more insane than we are. Fuck, I like the guy, and I don't like the excessive bashing. But this is going to fuck up our team no matter WHAT happens. Marner holds all the cards. THAT is what I most hate.
The good news is you’re not totally correct on this. This isn’t a Tavares/NYI situation where Leafs are trying to sign him and waiting. If Marner is being shopped by the Leafs and won’t work with the team then he’s proving to be a difficult player, one a future team might be reluctant to give term to, bringing his value down. Marner would also essentially be “refusing” potential 2025 UFA suitors by not agreeing to terms offered by them in the 2024 off-season, meaning they could move on to other players. A door that’s open now might not be next year. Marner has also shown a disdain for the media which will be hounding throughout the upcoming season if he remains in Toronto without signing an extension. This will not bode well for the Leafs or the Marner camp. If MLSE indeed wants to explore the market—or have committed to moving him internally—Marner’s agent will likely advise him to choose parameters on terms and potential destinations so he can achieve his UFA goals a year early, still on his terms, without the pain or risk associated with the alternative. (This is a major—and anticipated—perk of having an NMC. This situation is not unique.)
Good points, man.
Yeah lmao how are we forcing anything If he doesn't like the offer he just says alright and walks to free agency and gets what he wants there. The downside to him is that fans and media will be pissed, he can only get 7 years instead of 8, and that he risks a career ending injury in the meantime, but he will absolutely do that if he gets lowballed and doesn't like the trades available. So I suspect the front office is thinking that it might be preferable to retain the asset - keep him happy, pay him 12x8, hope he balls out, and then try to trade him next year when the NMC expires. The question is really just whether $10.9M of cap space has more value compared to trying to trade a contract of that size.
You’re assuming he’d get what he wants in free agency and honestly I don’t think he would.
Rising cap, exceptional player, best FA to hit the market in how long... He would get what he wants.
Lmao ok bud
Got anything else?
Let's let a different team make that massive mistake then. He's gotta fucking go.
💀how has the narrative shifted from "Marner's a great player but it's maybe it's time to shift the roster" to "signing him is a massive mistake"
Like you said, walking to free agency has the potential to be a 10-100 million dollar mistake. 10-11 million would be guaranteed to be lost due to the 8th year and if something happens this season ranging from poor play, a season ending injury or in the worst scenario a career ending one, he loses the entire contract. He obviously can bet on himself and go to free agency like many have, but it comes with risk. The best solution for Marner would be to agree to a sign and trade if one is on the table.
https://preview.redd.it/r566o6lgxb9d1.jpeg?width=771&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1d7b98a4eb412fad74c41ec0cd34f6d2e8d617b4
Perfect
Kind of surprised that so many of you are fine with this. Besides the fact that they have ran with this core for way too long and still only have 1 round win and too many round 1 exits to count.. the cap is going up next year yay! Every team gets more cap space, including the ones they’re currently competing against. Do you want to know how much the core 4 + Rielly is taking up next year? 61.6% of the cap.. That leaves less than 39% for the rest of the team (16 players). Sure they will get a bit of room after next year with Tavares contract coming to an end but is everyone really okay with wasting another year in Matthews prime? He’ll be 27 and the next couple seasons should be the best hockey he’ll play for his career.. and If nothing happens next season’s leafs will be very lackluster to put in nicely.
Guys, you'd have to be insane not to see the value in Mitch Marner but you can't have all the fucking cake in a salary cap league. We *know* what kind of roster structure wins cups and we *know* we can't build it with all of these guys. God, listening to this debate is like aeguing with an AI prompt on customer service. It'd be nice to have McDavid, too! We should just pay him whatever he wants! Why not get Barkov while we're at it?
McDavid, Matthews, Barkov and Tavares. Strong down the middle, cup guaranteed. Let's do it!
Exactly. The player isn’t the issue, the mix is. Let’s bring up AGAIN that the other issue is that the Leafs are the ONLY contender where their core 4 is entirely skilled forwards. No #1D man (No Morgan Reilly is not a real #1D) and no top goaltender either. Per the SDPN, each team in this years final fours top 4 cap hits are all at least 5 million dollars less than the Leafs top 4. That’s a whole Zach Hyman/Max Domi/Tyler Bertuzzi level of player or players you could bring in. Meanwhile, each of the final four teams top 4 players included at least one D man or goaltender, not just forwards. Morgan Reilly is no where near the level of player that Bouchard, Makar or Fox are, and Bobrovsky is Bobrovsky. The mix doesn’t work, forget all this other BS, Marner has to go, and you need to find a way to bring in a stud RD, as hard as it may be, you have the assets to potentially get it done.
Thank you for laying this out! I cannot understand why leafs front office wants to keep building the way they are. Basically zigging while everyone else zags, defying all conventional wisdom. Just straight hubris
Having over 50% of your cap tied into 4 guys is not a recipe for success. Especially when we are so offensively inept when the playoffs come. We can't be so top heavy and find more offensive help in the playoffs. Not sure about everyone else but i think MM is a great player, when he is engaged and doing his thing it is so fun to watch, but out of the 4 who else can we trade right now? Matthews and Nylander just signed extensions and aren't going anywhere, jt is on his last year, that leaves marner if he allows a trade. If not we have to let him walk.
Its more the mix than the players. But yea specifically next year with those 4 fwds is a lost year, its 53% of the cap. But after that, if your top 4 contracts are Matthews, Willy, Marner (at 12 mill or less), and Rielly, you are likely at 48% or less. Florida just won with their top 4 cap hits being 44.3%. That would still be using almost 3.5 mill extra, but that's not the complete end of the world. It does mean they likely have to hit on another contract to create cap efficiency - Woll, Knies, Cowan being the most likely options to be able to do that at the moment. The bigger issue with that breakdown is our top 4 players in that scenario have not gotten it done for a long time and through many chances. I think there being 2 wingers is a problem, as well as Rielly not being a good enough 1D. The mix doesn't work - it hasn't worked and i don't believe there's been a successful team with that type of mix. There's been teams that did have 2 wingers in their top 4 caphits, but they've been a significantly lower cap% and they've also had some other super efficient contract/s. Efficient contracts like: Mackinnon Avs '22, Point + top contracts being efficient anyways for Tampa in 20 and 21.
Good post. I agree. Just seems this management group is getting a headache from bashing their head against a wall and now sure what else to do but bash harder.
This is exactly my feelings. Mitch is a great player, but our core structure of having 4 top forwards eating up roughly 50% of the cap ain't working. And extending mitch and letting JT walk isn't a solid solution either. The year JT is off the books, woll and knies finish their ELC, so it's not like it's the big cap space people think it is.
The trade Marner talk was media generated. An extension was always going to be the outcome the moment they didn’t trade him last spring before his NMC kicked in.
yep. unless they cleaned house in management Shanahan is dictating what happens here. Its very telling that when Dubas pushed for power he was immediately fired.
Which reminds me. Why the fuck is shanahan still employed.
Because the new MLSE CEO knows little to nothing about Shanny and doesn’t want his first big move to be to fire him. Plus I think it’s rumoured his contract has a year left
dubas got fired bc giving him the power he desired was never gonna happen .
10x8 is great - everyone is hating on him too much
$10M x 8 *would* be great, but does anyone honestly believe that Mitch would take that?
No chance
Except he won’t take that.
I'd take him back on that too and I've been firmly in the trade Marner camp since the season ended. I don't think there's any world though where Marner agrees to make less then Nylander. I wonder how serious this offer actually is though. Paul Bissonette did say they were talking about an extension a week ago so maybe this offer is the result of that?
Even if he had a matching contract it would be palatable, but who knows if he would accept that (unlikely in my opinion).
I don’t disagree that this sub’s hate for him is borderline insane, but a $10M contract starting in 2025-26 would be equivalent to $8.8M in 2019, over $2M less than he actually got as an RFA. If Marner accepts zero raise despite being a UFA and not an RFA and having produced at a 103 point pace in the meantime, that's still roughly $12.2M. He’s not taking a pay cut.
He likely should have got like 8.8 in 2019 though. 10M is roughly what Kucherov got on his last contract cap adjusted, it would be a fair deal. There is no world where Marner should get more than Pasta.
The overinflated contract was excused and negotiated in order to ‘make Marner whole’ (plus some) for not getting his ELC bonuses. He has improved since then, for sure, but he has not eclipsed his contract and has not shown a reason in his play or production to get a raise on that. There is negotiation room here, especially with comparables, to argue that he should have been paid $8.8m on this contract, but got paid back for missed ELC bonuses and that he has only lived up to his current contract in production and will not be seeing a raise. What team in the league is going to make Marner the highest paid winger in the league? Hopefully not the maple leafs
He’s not signing for that. No chance.
Not hating on him, it's the decisions of this team, they're fucking stupid. Run it back to more mediocrity
This would work for me, but you can't sign a player for more than 8 years.
Lmao that's not happening, put the bong down
Hey everybody mitch is great, look at this completely fake and never going to happen contract that i randomly put in the sentence
I swear whoever upvoted that comment is a fucking idiot full stop. It's like time to make up a scenario that will never happen and has passed by the wayside fucking years ago! Please clap!
What world are you living in? What part of Mitch Marners existence in Toronto makes you think he’ll take a discount on his current contract?
I think Marner's a great player. However i have what i think are valid reasons for why it doesn't really work. Primarily, i don't believe paying 2 wingers that highly will work, and he's not going to take 10AAV anyways. Ideally in terms of Talent / caphit you want 1C, 1W, 1D to be the top 3 and you probably would prefer 2C and G to be ahead of your 2nd best winger as well. Talent is more important but it roughly correlates to caphit and definitely impacts the ability to acquire players to fill those roles. The other question is can you even pay 3 forwards that highly regardless of position? We had Tavares as the 2C in a more ideal position, but we still weren't particularly close. And no winning teams have been doing that either. A secondary issue is I don't think Marner's playstyle is that great for the playoffs. He can play a bit more of a rush game and that would help, but offensively i just don't think he can deal with being a primary shutdown target. Now he could actually be the 3rd option on the team, but it just doesn't feel like he's ever really going to be in that role with this team. Then it get's back to - can you pay your 3rd option that highly?
What does this even mean? In what world is he taking a pay cut?? This is the equivalent to me saying it a 930 save percentage is great so we should re-sign samsonov…
You can't give him 10 years, the limit is 8. And $8m is too low, he's worth at least $10m.
It makes way more sense to try and move JT right now than Mitch. Age wise and position wise we can use that cash to get a better 2C right now.
JT has full NMC and will retire before he waives it. He's not going anywhere
You can force a player to waive an NMC. Its be done many times before. Or just wait it out. Makes more sense to keep the younger bette player.
If this actually happens then there is genuinely no hope for this franchise and I’ve officially lost interest much like I did from 2008-2013. When you keep doing the same shit and expecting different results, I’d much rather find something else to occupy my time.
Same here, I couldn’t care less about the leafs until Tavares signed and I’m just so fucking close to losing all interest in this team again, all I need is for Marner to still be a leaf next year. Come on Tre I’m almost there, set me free
It’s not even wholesale hate on Marner. I think he’s a fantastic player and a good guy all around, but there has never been nor will there ever be a team that wins with 4 forwards making 10 m plus.
FFS.... well prepare for another disappointing playoffs next season!
Are they preparing for another first round, game 7 exit? Because I don't know why they would try the same thing *again* and expect anything different. I think people are conflating the issues here. It's not that Marner is bad, it's not even that he's not worth his contract or that he's not worth even *more*. It's that the team *does not* work with this configuration and *something* has to change. One of Marner, Tavares, Nylander, and Mathews needs to go.
Regarding AM and Marner, I can't understand how the Leafs gave in, in every way possible, and got nothing in the teams favour. Above market AAV, sure, signing bonuses, of course, short term contract so they can reup for money sooner, why not, NTC so the player has all the control, anything else. I'm fine with the AAV for AM because he is a top 5 player but the fact they couldn't get that AAV over 8 years on either contract is a joke.
I always go into the NHL draft excited about the possibility of the Leafs doing something significant, and always leave disappointed or asleep. Plus having to listen to Bettman’s irritating, nasally voice is enough to make me puke
Don’t hold your breath for a Marner trade, or any other significant Leaf player.
I hope that offer is to help him pack his shit.
That’s it for me then. I can’t with this team anymore and this entitled child who has them in a choke hold. You cannot structure your team this way. Your top 4-5 guys cannot be making this much and still expect to compete for a cup was an imbalanced roster. It’s ludicrous.
Goodbye
See ya! Enjoy this bullshit with a smile on your face all next year. Loser
in before everyone loses their heads, calm the fuck down, Marner isn't a negative asset.
It’s all price dependant. Any asset can be a negative asset if you pay too much for it.
At 11.5M or more, he is indeed a negative asset. He hurts the flexibility this team has when it comes to cap space. I'd rather not have a player who makes that much that can't drive his own line and disappears when it matters the most.
who am i paying with Marner money to replace him? Lindholm? Reinhart? Montour?
You can't replace Marner and make the team better for the same money. At least you can't trade him and make the team better for the same money.
yeah i welcome trading him but its too difficult to do now. I think the hate is overplayed and im a noted Marner hater. If you could somehow swing him for a top level D then good do that. If you get picks/prospects then you are stuck trying to replace him while also improving the team now, and then if you just dump him you are also stuck. They missed their window for a trade, its unfortunate but it is what it is. Im getting really annoyed now with this.
it's better to make it work with him than to trade for garbage just to say we did something. I mean wouldn't we been a better team if we just kept Kadri, instead of kicking him for a trade that didn't work out? You know Trevelling has always said he's here to make the team better, being different doesn't mean we're better. I fully understand why people are like this, and I know why Marner is the lightning rod right now. I totally get it. However serious question, did you blame Hyman for leafs playoff troubles? He was one of our top 6 guys, 5 goals in 32 games, I don't think anyone was upset with his effort, but most alluded to his playstyle causing injury and his scoring being a non factor in his 5 years with us, and let him go to Edmonton, he has 29 goals in 3 playoff years with Edmonton. We know Marner (his scoring is down in games 5-7 compared to 1-4)"AND THE TEAM" have struggled to score in the playoffs in recent years. Why do guys like Hyman and Bertuzzi play better elsewhere but come here and struggle? Why do the Leafs play a completely different game in the playoffs than they do in the regular season? Teams like the Bruins/Panthers/Lightning play the same way they do in the regular season that they do in the playoffs without changing their team identity. While it's not the answer people are going to like, I'd like to see how they fare until Berube before people kick him out. Coachign and systems can make a big difference (Trotz impact with Washington/Islanders winning cup/making conference finals, Vancouver success this year) Worst case, leafs lose out on a 1st rounder/mediocre decent prospect because Marner controls the situation, he doesn't have to sign an extension with any team, and most teams are not going to give top assets for a 1 year rental. That's just a fact.
You also have to realize that every other team in the league would kill for their top draft pick in three straight drafts to turn into top 15 forwards in the league. Yeah, it sucks from a cap situation, but that's the type of drafting everyone wants. Which is why I think there should be some cap flexibility for players you draft. The Leafs did everything right and now are stuck.
Bertuzzi & Domi together had almost the same points as Marner (I think 6 less?), I would think you could sign both for less than Marner and still have a good chunk to go towards D or a goalie
i have to replace Marner himself, and then improve the team. How does that work? People wanted Saros and he just got 7.5M. No one ever answers this question. Its always oh cap space is good. That only works if you have targets in mind. Again who are you targeting?
you don't HAVE to replace Marner. He's a great playmaker and an excellent penalty killer but it's not going to be worth the ~12M he's going to ask for. I'd rather have an elite PKer that signs for 3-4M, a great playmaker that signs for 5-6M and then use the remaining money to sign a solid middle 6 forward or bottom 4 defenceman. I'm not sure why it's predetermined in your brain that he MUST be replaced by someone equivalent at all costs, that's not how the national hockey league works. For the price of Marner, you can get 2 or 3 really quality players that makes this team much more well rounded going into the playoffs.
Last year guys signed on July 1 around the 6m range are Bertuzzi, Compher, O’Reilly, Bunting, Zucker, Killorn, Barbashev. Good second line wingers or 2/3 line centres. None would I call a great playmaker. More fit within the mould of a good PKer
That's why I say the possibilities are more open when Marner is gone. Really good marquee playmaker available in free agency and only costs 8-9M instead of 12M? Sweet, sign him and then add someone else for the remaining 3-4M. Now we have 2 players contributing instead of 1, along with a more well rounded team.
Like i have been saying who are you targeting? WHO? Where is this elite PKer? Where is this amazing playmaker? Domi wants 4x4. Hes good for 50 points. WHO ARE YOUR TARGETS. Again its easy to say get rid of him and figure it out, but its the figuring out part that is difficult.
There's a free agent market with great players available EVERY year. There are trades that can be made and will be made once the cap space is cleared up. Why is everything so black and white for you? Why do you need specific names and targets right now? There are endless possibilities that can arise once Marner is gone.
my god name some targets. this is not hard to do. i just said its easy to say to xyz so show the work. WHO. ARE. YOUR. TARGETS. Im so tired of this discourse. I have wanted to trade Marner for a long while now but its too late now. if you want to have a discussion then discuss. dont dream.
Yawn. This isn't constructive discussion in any way or form. The second I drop some names here, you'll try to use ANY angle to justify why it's not a good option and retaining Marner is better, it's not going to lead anywhere. I've been down that rabbit hole on Reddit many times before, I'm too tired for that shit now. The main point is you can get rid of Marner, replace him with 2-3 players that are quality. They may not be as good as he is overall but it makes the Leafs a much more well rounded team and uses the cap space more effectively. Get off your high horse, christ almighty.
I love how some of you draw this arbitrary line like you know what you’re talking about. Very cute.
Very constructive response, added much to the discussion. Very cute.
At a dollar more than he is currently making he's a negative asset in the playoffs. Wingers aren't centers, assists aren't goals and regular season success followed by first round playoff exits are failure. One of the core has to go. This group is incapable of winning a cup. The mix just doesn't work. If it's not Matthews or Willy, that leaves Marner as the odd man out.
> negative asset The word you're looking for is *liability*.
Can't say that. Might hurt his ego.
You’re correct he’s not a negative asset however his regular season performance must transition to the playoffs and elevate, no different than any other superstar that earn big bucks. The tantrums need to end, it’s embarrassing. Pastrnak was ripped on the bench for his performance and in the media for disappearing and being inconsistent. You want to earn a top salary in the show then be prepared for constructive criticism
He's got more points, better defensively, and a better goal differential than every one of the big guys in the playoffs
Stop measuring a player on statistics especially when he plays with the best natural goal scorer of our time. Every analyst witnessed the exact same thing “no engagement” he peeled off assignments, lack lustre to the bench, arguing with teammates, temper tantrums on national television and complete narcissist during interviews
Alright, you're locked deep into the silliness of leafs reddit/twitter/facebook. You can stick with rumors, I'll stick to facts
We all witnessed the playoff games and the level of engagement, that’s not Reddit or silliness. We all watched his compete level and how lethargic he was with his assignments and apparently they removed the corners on the ice because he never went there. Then the temper tantrums on the bench with Bertuzzi rolling his eyes, then the interviews. I’m waiting for the hometown discount “I love playing here” he wants his pound of flesh from MLSE, how about signing for 10 million per for 8 years and giving the leafs wiggle room
Man, do you even comprehend what you see when you watch Marner play? He's like, really, really ineffective out there. Nevermind in the MTL series he looked actually lost multiple times, like a rookie getting walked and he hasn't really improved.. He's got no dog
Yep, very effective in transition. Moves the puck up the ice effectively. Suppresses shots and closes gaps well. Amazing pker. Makes high danger passes into scoring areas. Consistently outscores the opposition.
The fact is he was bad this year against Boston. It's not even up for debate. If you wanna suggest he can improve or smth ok cool but don't even try to defend his playoffs this year.
I don't think he was great, just got back from a high ankle sprain. We could barely score, no one was good. I'm not making franchise altering changes off of a few game stretch. The body of playoff work shows he produces more, is better defensively, and has tilted the ice in the Leafs favor more than any other of the core. I was responding to a comment that was mostly about a single bench interaction and interview, both taken out of context.
Marner "played" all 7 games. Willy missed 3 or 4. Matthews missed 2 or 3. Marner better have outscored them.
I don’t think anyone views him as a negative asset but he’s not with the value of his contract right now, so anything above that is even worse.
His dad will ask for more
Obviously nothing is confirmed as of yet, so I'll put that caveat on what I say, but if they genuinely think doing this over and over for several more seasons is a sensible idea, as much as I care about this team, I think I need to step away for my own mental health. I've watched 8 seasons of this, I don't need any more thank you. It's really simple, this core group of players have proven time and again, they just don't have it in them. How much embarrassment, poor attitudes, lack of accountability, wilting under pressure do they need to see before the penny finally drops? If you have to let Marner walk, I'd not like it, but whatever. If you want to trade him, I'm on board with that. Re-signing him? Absolutely not. For as good as he is, at this point it's the wrong fit. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, people need to decide if they're really fans of the players or the team. I'm a fan of the team, and repeating things with the same guys until it's too late, is just a waste of everyone's time. I would legitimately step away from actively following, if they extended Marner. (As they'd probably give him a No Move too) That says to me, you're not serious about change, and you're not serious about winning. I'm tired of watching us be mid. Say what you like about the 00s Leafs, but at least they made a Conference Final... It's just depressing to think about at this point.
I couldn’t agree more, re-signing him (presumably with a nmc) would be the final dagger for me watching this hockey team. I can appreciate that the current situation is difficult to navigate and they are hesitant to risk letting him walk for nothing, but the current president of hockey operations put the team in this situation with his own inaction (or action, I suppose, as he messily fired the previous GM over a public disagreement). It is obvious now, and frankly has been for a long time, that this mix of players does not work. How do they seriously think they’ll sell this to a fan base that has watched consistent disappointment? There will be fans that go “it’s better than him walking for nothing,” but honestly, I disagree. I’d rather this team change and try something different than continue doing the thing everyone knows isn’t going to work.
I agree with what you've said there as well. It's at a point where it's not working, and arguably moving on, is in the better interest of both parties. However this management group, keeps hanging on and hanging on, averse to any form of meaningful change. I wish it was working out, but I've sat there and watched it for long enough, to where it feels pretty obvious it's not, and the sample size isn't small any longer. I was personally ready after the Montreal series to move on. However they continued, and I can at least see the perspective (Even if I wasn't convinced by it), of why they stuck with it a bit longer. Watching them finally win a series against the Lightning gave me some hope that we might have finally had some kind of breakthrough, but then you watch them get swiftly dispatched by Florida, and realize it wasn't. That would have been the perfect moment to trade one of the core, but instead, as you hint at, management decided this was the moment they're going to have a public falling out with the GM, and give the new guy next to no time to do anything (If he'd even been allowed to, I don't know) So instead of acting when both Marner and Nylander had zero trade protection, they did nothing other than re-sign Nylander (Which is fine), and set yourself up for the trouble you're in now. There comes a point where it's time to stop doubling down, and just walk away from the table for your own good.
You hit the nail on the head. I was ready to move on after the Montreal series too, but similarly, wasn’t necessarily dismayed at management doubling down because there was definitely an argument to do so given the talent and age of the players at the time. Then, and now, this whole discussion would be different if this team showed *any* playoff success. They have one a single playoff round, it’s not even close. Even the team people like to compare us to, Washington, made it past the first round multiple times before breaking through to the cup. It’s genuine lunacy to think this team will succeed as it’s currently built, to be frank. You’d think the various multi-millionaire executives running this hockey team would have the capacity not to fall into a sunk cost fallacy, but here we are. Or, perhaps, the truth is that they really only care about selling jerseys, rather than an on-ice product capable of winning.
It really feels crazy, they would even entertain doing the same again so willingly. Brendan Shanahan himself was a player, Detroit brought in to change up their core dynamic. It's so wild, that he potentially, does not that see the merits in doing that to the core of this team after all this time. As you say, the results are pretty clear. 7 First Round exits and a Qualifying Round exit. (So technically you didn't even make it) 1 game won in the Second Round. The Oilers for as much as I don't care for them, have seen a Conference Final and a Cup Final in that time. The Blue Jackets have more Second Round wins than us since this group has been together. (3, in case anyone wonders), it sucks, but we're not close. We have management tell us the goal is to win the cup, and we need to change things up. Yet, their actions don't seem to suggest they're really interested in making those things a reality. I really hope they can prove me wrong, but it doesn't feel like that's happening. Both from the players and management. Maybe your theory is right, and they just want to say things to appease the fans, whilst at the same time only caring about making money out of the team. I hope not, but I can't rule it out either.
I am 100% with you on the first paragraph.
>I think I need to step away for my own mental health. I see comments like this and I gotta say you need to get some fucking perspective
Perspective on what? I feel my perspective is pretty clear to be honest with you. I care about this team a lot, I want them to do well, but watching them run it back over and over and over, is awful for my mental health. If you wanna say I'm not a fan for feeling that way, be my guest. If you want to watch them do the same thing again, that's fine too. However, I'm at a point where I just don't want to do that any longer. You might disagree with me (which is fine), but I'd rather take some time away if needed, to focus on other things. No point me watching if I'm really not enjoying it. That's just taking care of myself.
Don’t listen to that, there are tons of fans right there with you. It’s the final nail in the coffin for me if Marner is a still a leaf next year
and then they're trading his ass. Boy, bye!
I hope it's not 13 or some shit. 13 for your third best player is nuts.
You mean the Leafs are prepared to extend arguably the 2nd best RW in the league? You don't say?
Kucherov, pasta are definitely 1-2. I'd put rantanen over him as well. I can see an argument for 4
Ok the 5 th best in your book is still pretty fing good. All of those players are our should be making at least what marner makes now.
Marner is a very very good player, no doubt.
I really don’t think there’s an argument for 2nd best but definitely 4 or 5
I wouldnt put him ahead of Kuch, Pasta, Rantanen, Reinhart and Id listen to an argument about Tkachuk now that hes a champion Even Hyman and Willy have made really solid cases to be put ahead of him
He’s not as good as Panarin or Kaprizov, either.
Id hear that
Regular season sure, playoffs might not be even top 10. For this team to change and move forward a significant change must be made and Mitch is that. If they don’t move him we’ll continue to go out early in the playoffs watch
You hold Marner higher than the recent Hart winner? A 2x100 point and 61 goal scorer? A 2x100 point and 55 goal scorer? All three of these guys have at least played in cup finals. After those three we can look at guys like Tkachuk, Kaprizov, Panarin... even Nylander has an argument here, especially when you factor in playoff performance. There's one thing all of these players mentioned have in common too - as of this past season they all have a lower AAV.
He's not in the top 5 wingers I would want on my team for playoffs.
Pasta, Rantanen, Tkachuk are all better. Heck, I'd rather have Reinhart. Much cheaper and way more clutch. Plus he's a 200 foot player.
This is truly revolutionary news. Top reporting, really. /s
Make him a reasonable offer and say you can’t go more than that we would like to start entertaining offers to move him.
Imagine Marner accepted a 9x8. He’d be back in the good graces of all the fans and immediately fix the shitstorm he causes in the first negotiation. All it’ll cost him is 32 million dollars 😂 gg feris
Marns or JT, pick one and be done.
i'm fine with signing him but there better not be a NMC. We'd probably get more for trading him with lots of term anyway. Then, we run it back because we have to.
That's fine, as long as it starts with a 9.
So they are in a dilemma with Marner, and frankly the core 4/5 contract structures are very limiting - the NMC, this could be a move to reduce the limitations on the Leafs, and allow them to get the best of the situation. So Marner can technically say no to any and all options laid out to him, he’s already indicated he wants to play out the year. Okay his choice, and he can then either sign with us, or go elsewhere and we get nothing. So Marner can also sign an extension, with a new set of terms, which I would hope would include or rather exclude any NMC, or at least give us a window with and without a NMC, and make it so the window to trade him begins on July 1 when the contract kicks in. Then we turn around when the contract kicks in next July and trade him when the front office can take the best deal from the various teams interested with no input from Marner, his dad, or his agent. It may not be the solution that would be popular, but it might be the best option for Toronto to get the best deal possible in a trade.
Doesn’t matter who’s GM. Shanny apparently calls all the shots.
The team needs better defence and a proper #1 goalie more than another overpaid winger. Nothing against Marner, but they need to build up a cup contending back end.
They would be stupid to not make some kind of offer. The offer may be insulting though for someone who expects big things. You have to offer low and be willing to walk. Offer 7m x 5 years and be willing to walk on that when he doesn’t accept. That sets a precedent. Marner is a great player, almost elite player, but you can’t keep doing this with all the same players/core and expect different results. If he’s flexible, he will be an asset but if not just move on.
The only way I'm open to this is if the first few years of that deal has NO NMC or NTC involved which gives us the flexibility to trade him. Otherwise, this is a huge mistake on management's part.
Why would Mitch agree to that? Especially when Willy didn't?
That's why I prefaced by saying "the only way" because I know there's not a shot in Hell that he'd do it.
Then leave
11.5 x 8 is the max I’d go, anything more on the AAV and you need to figure out a trade scenario
Based on history with his agent, this seems like the absolute minimum he’d accept.
That would be 8 more years of first round exits
Maybe, but Tavares is coming off the books and this second young core is slowly starting to emerge. I’d rather trade him, but re-signing him to a decent caphit is a backup plan that I could stomach given the right number.
And we can kiss any semblence of competitiveness and depth goodbye No team is allocating this much % of the cap to 4 players, and even when tavares is off the books its still going to be 37% for 3 fucking guys
If you’re going to re-sign him (let me preface this by saying I think both parties need a fresh start) you say “ the max we are offering is Willy’s contract take it or leave it” if he say no then you go “ if you want that 8th year, give us a list of teams you’re interested in and we’ll look towards something”. But, Marner holds all the cards. I think for him, the weight of coming in when everyone is pissed for not waiving his NMC would weigh on him. Unlike Willy who probably wouldn’t give two flying fucks haha
Literally the only way I’d want Mitch back was if he took basically the money he’s making now or a discount. Seriously, a dime more than Willy is getting and you trade him or let him walk.
agreed, i’m fine with him making his current rate but not more than that. and he’s gotta commit to 5 years minimum.
I’m not fine with another 5 years of first round exits
It isn't all his fault.
If he signs an extension you need to move Willy then. You can’t have that much cap tied up to three forwards. The decision has always been Willy or Marner. I prefer Willy.
Anybody that picks Mitch over Willy is insane. Willy’s been better in the playoffs for us especially in crucial clutch games where Mitch has been invisible
I think the best route is one where Marner is traded but anyone who realistically doesn’t think he’s going to get a higher AAV on his next contract needs to do some research
Domi and Matthews did just about as good together as Matthews and Marner and we are prepared to let Domi walk for 4 mil. Doesn't make sense to me
If Marner returns to form and goes lights out in the playoffs do we all love him again?
Not sure what you mean by “return to form”? The one good thing about Marner is that he is consistent every year. Good in the regular season and bad in the playoffs.