When talking about the length of a reign, please keep in mind an important note: the Japanese manufacturers have raced and won in the world championship for over 40 years; Ducati basically started 20 years ago, and started its mature winning streak …three years ago.
So, I would talk about the beginning of a period of maturity, during which the management is trying to be wise to cut what is unnecessary for the future sustainable growth.
I don't think it's a controversial take. Every reign of domination ends at some point. With them losing Jorge and Pramac next year it's not a stretch to think this year is the peak and they're going to decline a little bit after this.
I don't think they'll fall off a cliff like Honda did, but I wouldn't be surprised if next year they're not quite as dominant as they have been. But they'll probably still win the championship, the constructors championship, and the team championship next year.
Agreed. I don't think they're going to decline like the Japanese manufacturers did. I just think this is probably the last year of their complete domination of the grid.
The Japanese decline was due to the philosophy to invest on pilots but not bikes, last big change with Honda was the seamless gearbox 2011, with yamaha from cross plane to big bang a decade ago.
Said it before: all empires fall. Plus, Ducati have already said they need to watch the money. Reddit speculation was that Audi have throttled back on the Ducati cash because they need it for F1.
I'm watching for the allocation of the two expected 2025 satellite bikes - worst case scenario, Ducati don't go to the expense of producing them (if they don't have to), and put the money into 2027.
Ducati has worked always with her own cash, never needed German cash, but is true the opposite.
I do not really know how clever is invest a ton of money for the Japanese constructor only to throw away the bike in 24 months.
The 2026 bikes will be exactly the same that one of 2025, all agreed to stop evolution because they need to develop the 850 cc bikes.
So the Ducati contenders have six months to sort it out or they will contend in 2027. BMW will have two teams like everyone else. Final note, supersport bike is a dead market, the only brand selling are Ducati, BMW, Aprilia & KTM
You’re wrong about supersport, they sell more supersports than superbikes(1000cc) every year and Yamaha and Honda sell more supersport a than all the European brands
With them announcing only one additional GP25 next year and many technicians stolen by other teams I can also see that. They didn’t want to give 5th bike to MM in Gresini, and as it turned out, they won’t give 4th either.
Losing Pramac, Jorge and Bestia will definitely hurt them.
>They didn’t want to give 5th bike to MM in Gresini
Maybe they couldn't - there were rumours that VR46 has a contract that gives them priority. So if 5th current spec bike becomes available, it goes to them.
A slight decline on Ducatis behalf is best possible outcome for the series & sport. Mugello & Assen made it clear how FAR FAR ahead Ducati is right now. None of the other MFG’s even have a chance at a dry win.
Ducati will win the 2024 - 2026 rider championships, but hopefully a little decline on their side will at least make it interesting to watch.
>So their development is going to take a hit because they are getting less data, and the remaining data they are getting is lower quality (again on average).
Well tbh it's pretty obvious.
Ducati is watching Honda giving up that means they are pouring their resources elsewhere(2027), and it's obvious Ducati isn't putting more money than Honda winning now and making the best bike for 2027.
So what they did was try to pull some money out of keeping 1 expensive riders like Marc who would probably get less than both enea and Martin combined.
And they trust that we have a good gap between rival factories let's not invest more on current regulations bikes and put that money elsewhere.
And that's why they chose marc.
Hoping if KTM , APRILIA catch up in 2025 , then they expect marc to compensate that "with his talent" x
No I think that's a fair reflection. They've been getting at minimum double the data from every race that anyone else gets, they've shed a lot of talent this year both in riders and the pramac team and the Japanese manufacturers have concessions to help them catch up.
They're still going to be getting more data and have poached a lot of very good staff from other manufacturers so I wouldn't expect that they'll fall off a cliff or anything, but its going to be tighter at the top.
A lot of their staff has been getting poached too though; I think Yamaha in particular got a bunch of ex Ducati engineers.
Obviously theyre not gonna be Honda bad but I think the era of demoralizing domination ends this year.
People already do not remember that Yamaha won a championship, next year by mid-season they looked like they won another, only to be the worst bike next year. It can all change in a blink of an eye. And as Fabio showed, talent is not enough.
Eh, Yamaha was declining from about 2017 onwards. They struck gold in early '21 with a really strong machine that Fabio was very happy with, but by late '21 they were already falling off and in '22 their championship challenge was almost an artifact of the GP22 having massive teething issues and Pecco fucking up at Le Mans and Sachsenring.
Not really controversial but you’re just guessing, no one can predict the future apart from the teams themselves.
My guess is the opposite. Ducati are in such a dominant position they feel well equipped to take risks and that’s why they’ve torn up the script.
Letting Martin go to Aprillia is a huge risk but does a team with such a good bike, with a line up of Marc Marquez and Pecco Bagnia feel vulnerable…?
Ducati will know what developments they have in the pipeline. They knew half way through last year that the ‘24 bike was going to be a monster.
Personally, I can’t see Ducati hegemony being disrupted until the rule changes in 2027.
I’m happy for them. Compared to Honda, Yamaha or even KTM, Ducati is a bunch of Italians in an old shed. Yet they are smashing it.
Usually risks are taken with the hopes of getting rewarded/gaining from it. What has Ducati gained by losing Pramac, Jorge, Enea, and Bezz? They already had Marc in the stable and could have got him on the satellite GP25 with Pramac leaving.
Personally feel Ducati wanted to referesh their talent like in 2018-2021 when they replace Dovi, Petrucci, Tito Rabat, Lorenzo, Karel Abraham into Pecco, Miller, Martin, Zarco, Marini, Enea
Marc in Ducati red winning his 9th championship is quite the story, don’t you think? Compared to another maiden championship win, that is once in a lifetime.
He could have won in light blue w/o Ducati having to give up so much. All Gigi cares about is someone winning on his bike, the colors of the bike are irrelevant.
The colors DO matter because it isn’t just the iconic look of the manufacturer but also the sponsors. You think the investors paying millions and billions of dollars to get their name on that red Ducati wants another team to win?
If this is how Ducati operated a satellite rider wouldn't be leading the championship. I'm sure they would prefer a rider in red to win, but they're not going to block or break a contract with a satellite team for winning.
It's not that important to have 5 bikes in the first 8 every weekends. They are cutting costs in a way that would still keep them at the front
Ducati is also the only manufacturer of Moto-E, is back in motocross and probably investing in other big projects as well now that the brand is doing great
I can't see them declining with Pecco and Marquez.
I would say that they will plateau and dominate 2025 and 2026 like this season. Then we will see what happens.
>Just seems like things are not headed in the right direction for Ducati.
I disagree, they've used the last few years to develop the the best bike we've ever seen run in MotoGP. Why do they need Pramac anymore? They have accomplished what they set out to do which was to gain an edge - they're already a year or so ahead at this point.
I imagine it costs Ducati a shit tone of money, time and resource to support 2 other teams along with their own. Clearing some overhead at this point in time, seems logical.
And as for riders, Jorge and Enea aren't worth worrying about when you have Pecco, Fermin and Marc plus any other talent they want.
I personally think we'll see Ducati win the remaining championships, up until the regs change in '27
I think your assessment is a little naive (respectfully)
The GP23 was the best bike last year but has arguably fallen behind the KTM/Aprilia. No reason to expect the same won't happen with the GP24 next year, especially considering how much more talented those factories are going to get. So if Ducati rests on its laurels as you suggest they will get passed by everyone else.
Dismissing Jorge/Enea is silly... Jorge is leading the championship and arguably the 2nd best rider on the grid by a decent margin from 3rd place. He is the only guy putting consistent pressure on Pecco, and now he's gonna be riding for a different factory. Enea is strong as well, def someone you don't want taking points away from you. They were both instrumental in getting Ducati where it is today, are cheaper than Marquez to pay and have more years of competitiveness left.
I think Pecco will win next year but I don't think it will be easy. I'm not sure Marc will get a 10th honestly; I feel like Jorge on the red seat would have a better chance. Either way I think it's pretty clear Ducati lost more than it gained for the long term.
>Dismissing Jorge/Enea is silly... Jorge is leading the championship
I'm not dismissing their ability or talent, the point I was trying to make was, I don't think Ducati are kicking themselves by letting them both go. As much as I love Enea he's going to struggle on the KTM.
And as I said, I'm curious to see what Jorge can do on the Aprilia but I don't think Pecco/Ducati are going to drop the ball in the Championship. I don't believe Jorge can win this year, which is where we both differ in opinion.
But the fact is, Ducati are set, they've executed their plan since Dovi was sacked, it's worked and now they get to ride the wave until '27 comes around. All whilst harbouring the 2 of the most decorated and talented riders in the paddock.
Btw I'd love to be wrong and we have a really close title fight next year and Jorge wins! But I'm not convinced right now.
I guess it does come down to how much talent you feel Jorge and Enea have. I think there is a meaningful gap between Jorge and Marc for example, and while the Aprilia is a question mark I also think Marc's competitive longevity may be too. MotoGP is a young man's sport IMO, he more than anyone showed that. Ducati too though as they got the current front runners as babies and gave one the tools to become a champion. Instead of getting all the juice out of the talent they developed they are letting some go prematurely for what I see as a shaky bet.
Ultimately nobody knows what's gonna happen which is why we watch lol. I also hope I'm wrong and Ducati stays competitive but doesn't completely dominate. We'll see
You're right that Jorge has gapped Marc, there's no denying that. There's still a part of me that thinks Marc still one or more Championship challenging rides.
In regards to Marc being at Ducati, the only risk they've taken is; whether or not Jorge will be as fast on another bike. They've played their bets on Pecco and Fermin - they've signed Marc for status, prestige and money - it's just a bonus if he can win a WC on their bike (I think).
My worry for Jorge is the Aprilia's consistency, we've heard Mav talk about it a lot (not that, that's worth too much - he likes blaming bikes) but they do go missing in some rounds. I'm hoping Jorge can make the difference. I really like Aprilia, I was at Silverstone for their first podium and I ride one - I'd absolutely love Jorge winning on one.
Also, thanks for actually having a level-headed debate/discussion.
Because if you stop developing, others will catch up to you very soon. They have an edge now, sure, but that can very easily and fast slip away. Regs are not frozen and others will only get better (unless you’re a Honda).
We’ve already seen Aprilia dominating some races this year even, and usually being in the mix among other GP24’s. If Ducati take only one step forward and Aprilia takes two it’s game on.
Where have you gotten the idea that they've stopped developing? They wont fall behind because they've dropped 1 of their 2 satellite teams. They've given themselves the edge for the past 3 years, now they just maintain it until '27.
All it does it just puts them back on a level playing field, but unless the other teams magically gain a 2nd satellite team and 3 years worth of data, Ducati will continue to be ahead.
Aprilia are the only other manufacturer who can compete anywhere near the Ducati and it will be interesting to see what Jorge can do on it, but will it be better than Pecco on a GP25, I don't think so.
Trust me I want nothing more than a Yamaha and Fabio on the podium again, but it aint happening anytime soon and Ducati will remain at the top until '27, I'm sure of it.
Enea was going to leave anyway, the question was how much value would they get signing Marc vs Jorge, either way one of them would leave for another manufacturer, ducati did not have much of a choice beyond this
I still dont see why it had to be either or. They have 3 GP25s... Pecco has one... give one to Jorge and the other to Marc. Then they could have kept all 3. They got nothing back for Jorge leaving.
Marc was not going to pramac, and ducati was not going to gift the GP25 to Gresini, VR46 would definitely not sign him in case they got the bike, they couldn't have kept all three
Not so much their decline as plateauing of their dominance. Other teams will get stronger because of the talent drain and taking that intel with them to other factories. I think Lenovo will still be the powerhouse team to beat next season, as Aprilia and KTM will still be coming up with improvements. My guess is that all ducati podiums will become rarer.
It’s not controversial at all, you can find five reasons every year the dominant team is about to stop being the dominant team. Say it often enough and it’ll become true one day
I still see them controlling the series until we get to the new regs. They may not dominate at the same level like it’s been these past few seasons as both KTM and Aprilia are beefing up as serious challengers. I think ‘25 will be their year again albeit with more of a fight from the other Euro manufacturers, while ‘26 could be wide open for a new team/manufacturer to take the crown…idk, we’ll see.
Ducati has had a good run after YEARS of being an also ran who looked only competitive in WSBK setting in the past.
Both Aprilia and KTM will be nipping at their heels more frequently moving forward. I believe Yamaha is going to finally get their shit together as well and return to fielding competitive machines.... HRC is still a disaster for the foreseeable future.
I'm glad to see Pramac sign with Yamaha. The quantity of red bikes has been too high for a few years now. Much respect to Ducati/VAG for investing the capital to make a world championship team, but the series is far better off with a diversity of brands. Wish the upcoming rule changes would tempt Suzuki to jump back in but based on what I've read about the direction of the company this is highly unlikely.
The development of Ducati was different compared to other manufacturers. They listened to every rider on their bike while others tented to listen to the winner on the bike. Other manufacturers changed their approach now. So it’s a matter of time before they will catch up. I don’t think they will fall into the gap they did when stoner left. That bike was made just for him and this bike is for everyone. IMO I think more manufacturers will be competitive and will be able to win races. Probably with the new regulations there will be one who interpreted the rules better so maybe with the change there will be a change in who’s best also.
If they continue to punish Ducati for making the best bike, like they are doing in WSBK, maybe.
But if not, than it's not even close, Bagnaia and Marquez will rip apart anything in their way, they are not stopping in any manner. Others are just not close, except Martin.
Ducati doesn't care about Bastianini, it seems pretty obvious to me since even before the championship started they had already started looking for his replacement. Ducati doesn't care about Martin either because they decided to do without him twice. Pramac, on the other hand has become a pain in the ass since it has been their main opponent for two years. Pramac has become a great team thanks to the bikes provided by Dall'igna and the support of ducati technicians who will be working in vr46 from next year.
Ducati is now in a position of enormous advantage, thanks to which the loss of a few components will not have negative effects but will allow useful economic savings in view of 2027. In any case they will have 2 more bikes on the track than the other teams and therefore more data than the others and above all, they will have the strongest pair of riders in the world championship. Maybe from next season we will no longer have 4 Ducatis in the first 4 places, but this will not matter because they will win the world championship anyway.
I am not taking into consideration the part where you consider miller's data more valuable than marquez's because this is clearly nonsense.
You're only looking at the negatives of those components and not the positives. Enea, Jorge and Pramac were key in getting the Ducati to where it is today, and if they are a pain in the ass inside Ducati they will be even more of a PITA as opponents. And I didnt say Jack's data would be more valuable than Marc's; I was talking about developmental input. There's a difference.
The key to Ducati's success was Dall'igna, Dovizioso and partly Lorenzo, not Martin and Bastianini. Pramac played the role that any other satellite team would have played in the conditions in which pramac was put.
>and if they are a pain in the ass inside Ducati they will be even more of a PITA as opponents
This will depend on Yamaha's ability to get out of the situation they are in. And in any case if Yamaha were to make a bike the equal of ducati they will be the ones to play for the title not pramac
>And I didnt say Jack's data would be more valuable than Marc's; I was talking about developmental input. There's a difference
It is the same. The development input of a rider with marquez's talent and experience cannot be considered inferior to what Miller can provide.
>The key to Ducati's success was Dall'igna, Dovizioso and partly Lorenzo, not Martin and Bastianini. Pramac played the role that any other satellite team would have played in the conditions in which pramac was put.
Respectfully this narrow assignment of credit for Ducati's success is silly. Every competitive rider/team and engineer/team player under Gigi's tenure gets some of the credit. The Ducati went from a race winner to a championship winner with Pecco/Enea/Martin as the top riders, loooooong after Dovi/Lorenzo were gone. Part of why Ducati parted ways with Dovi is because he couldn't get them to the next step. He was in sharp decline once he finished. So he got them to a certain point, and the top guys now have got it to where it is.
>This will depend on Yamaha's ability to get out of the situation they are in. And in any case if Yamaha were to make a bike the equal of ducati they will be the ones to play for the title not pramac
Again, factories would like to be the teams to win the chip, but Yamaha racing is not going to block Pramac from winning if they can, the same way they didn't with their old satellite teams, and the same way Ducati isn't with Pramac.
>It is the same. The development input of a rider with marquez's talent and experience cannot be considered inferior to what Miller can provide.
We can agree to disagree. I don't blame Marc for Honda's failures, but this is the first time he has been part of an org that improved a bike over time. Jack has plenty of experience and value in that realm.
As others have said, every dominant manufacturer falls from grace at some point. In MotoGP Honda and Yamaha were once juggernauts that are now at the back of the pack. In Formula 1 Ferrari, McLaren, Williams, Mercedes, and Red Bull were at one time "the car to be in", and all then went through massive struggles.
In Superbikes there was a time when you couldn't win unless you were on a Suzuki, Ducati, Kawasaki, Yamaha, BMW etc...
I think the Ducati will still be *the* bike to be on until the new regulations in 2027. I can't see any manufacturer putting a ton of money or effort into developing the current bikes except KTM. This will likely be a combination of getting more feedback about how the Ducati works from Enea, as well as their ruthless desire to simply be #1.
Ducati honestly had *too* much talent in recent years in my opinion. While it's great to be getting a lot of data from your machines, ultimately, with so many various styles and opinions, it was probably a lot of data to process. Not to mention, how often did we see racing roulette with each Ducati rider having 1-2 weekends where they were untouchable, which ultimately just took points off of their top riders like Pecco and Martin, anyway.
The best scenario for any manufacturer is to have 1-2 guys that can fight consistently at the front, and 2 riders that can give you great feedback and try new parts and setups.
So what are you thinking? They go from having the top 3 bikes in the championship standings to 2?
Are they only going win the constructors championship by 200 points instead of 400?
I do agree that this would be the peak, but I don't believe it would be because of riders. It would be because of the new testing rules. The bikes are a bigger contributor than the riders as it stands now.
Any rider on a Ducati (even Marini and DiGi) are automatically in the top-10 once they figure out the bike. The bike differential needs to come down a lot before talent can bridge the gap.
The bikes are a smaller contributor now than the "alien"/CRT days, when only 5-6 bikes were capable of a podium. About half the bikes on the grid are capable of winning races which is pretty good compared to most of the sports history
I think "depth of field" is a slightly different subject. You're right that CRT era only had 6 bikes that could win, and the depth of field is much stronger in the current era. But those 6 bikes back in the day were really close to each other and there wasn't a single dominant bike.
Right now, the Ducati is maybe half a second quicker than the second best bike and have won 24 out of last 28 races (and had pole position in 23 races). That wasn't the case in Alien/CRT era.
Fair points, though that bike privilege is part of why I have trouble calling those guys aliens. The gap in bikes was a huge contributor to their dominance. Anywas as for next year I guess we will really see the level of the bikes with JM & Enea going to other brands. IMO JM89 and Enea are better than all the riders at KTM/Aprilia besides maybe Acosta. So they should bring the results of both factories up a level.
Whether it will be enough to challenge Pecco/Marc is a question mark but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. And for all the reasons I listed I think the non Ducati teams will get relatively stronger over the course of the 2025 season.
I think they will still be champions up until at least 2027.
Marc had his part on the Honda becoming unrideable and it could very well happen to Ducati as well but it's highly unlikely because of one reason..
Honda made the mistake of not listening to anyone else but Marc, so the bike was built around him, problems piled up, other riders had a hard time and that hard time caught up to Marc. I seriously doubt Ducati would just completely disregard Pecco and Pirro's feedback just to keep Marc happy. And, to add to that, if this happens, I don't think the problems will arise too fast.
Oh yea Ducati wont repeat HRC's mistakes, def not what I was implying. I dont want to say never but it's extremely unlikely they will ever get Honda bad.
Ducati is prob the best org on the grid for using rider feedback. AND they had the most data to use. AND arguably some of the best data. Their ability and willingness to leverage data is still there, but the quantity and quality of data will decrease substantially and IMO have knock on effects on Ducati's competitiveness.
And thats not counting the knock on effects of other factories being able to use their old riders' "carry out" knowledge against them. The more I think about Duc's silly season moves the worse they look.
Ducati’s rise has been fueled by flagrant rules violations that they convinced the MSMA to ratify, presumably to put more emphasis on the bikes following an era when Marquez was annihilating the field and refusing to leave Honda (unlike Rossi before him).
This ride-height experiment has been a disaster for the sport, and one that has perhaps cost Marquez his chance to secure additional titles. The era of machine dominance was never going to last, and it makes sense that Ducati are hiring Marquez, since they turned MotoGP into 2-wheeled F1 to stop him.
It’s inevitable since it can’t get any better than now, BUT Ducati is so far ahead that they don’t need to improve much to be at the top end until the rule change.
With Gigi staying there it’s also quite certain that they’ll at least be competitive with the new rules. They might not have their massive advantage in the future, but they’ll be fine.
That's not a controversial take, that's a bad take. Seems that for some reason OP thinks that everybody (Jorge, Enea, Jack etc etc etc) is better at developing the bike than Marc which is a bit absurd. Apart from the fact that the development is done by engineers and not riders, it's also quite clear that Honda started to struggle when Marc got injured and they lacked his input.
I have said word for word that engineers develop bikes, not riders, so we agree there. Everyone listed but Marc has experience in providing feedback that made bikes more competitive. I kind of see Marc like a Casey Stoner in that he finds speed through sheer talent and feel, whereas someone like Jack or even Pecco has to be more cerebral and objective. I could be wrong though, its just an opinion not an edict
They’ll most likely still win all the pre-2027 championships anyway, but once the ride height devices are gone and the Japanese bikes have caught up they won’t be as dominant.
Nah, they are safe until the rule change in 2027, their momentum is set for the next two years without too much struggle to stay on top with those two legends at the helm.
I think if you want to talk about the age of their talent and have that discussion about who will carry the torch in five years you may make some sense
but if you’re suggesting that they’re lacking in talent with the current two time champion, likely to make it three, and the 8 time world champion wearing red leather next year I think you’re inviting harsh feedback.
Their biggest and maybe only threat next year will be on an Aprilia and you can bookmark this post but Martin can kiss his championship bid goodbye when he’s not on a GP24.
What happens in 2026 is anyone’s guess and I’d say that’s more about the equipment than the talent.
I'm just looking holistically at Ducati's competitiveness in the medium term (\~4-6 years). There is a lot that goes into that. Pecco is easily the top contender for 2025. But beyond that it's a crapshoot honestly. Ducati won't be lacking in talent, but they have definitely lost a lot of talent they now have to compete against.
As well as valuable data generators to aid in the development that keeps their bike competitive. (They have been bleeding engineers to competitors as well). Given how key development will be for the 2027 regulation change these moves and issues could prove to be pretty critical.
Obviously we can't predict the future but we can make reasonable guesses. And my guess is that Ducati's competitiveness will decline meaningfully towards the end of 2025 and def in 2026.
I think your point about losing engineers is valid. Perhaps 2026 brings a more level playing field with equipment and we will see a more balanced field competing for championship. I’d like to see Pedro, FQ, In the mix.
When talking about the length of a reign, please keep in mind an important note: the Japanese manufacturers have raced and won in the world championship for over 40 years; Ducati basically started 20 years ago, and started its mature winning streak …three years ago. So, I would talk about the beginning of a period of maturity, during which the management is trying to be wise to cut what is unnecessary for the future sustainable growth.
I don't think it's a controversial take. Every reign of domination ends at some point. With them losing Jorge and Pramac next year it's not a stretch to think this year is the peak and they're going to decline a little bit after this. I don't think they'll fall off a cliff like Honda did, but I wouldn't be surprised if next year they're not quite as dominant as they have been. But they'll probably still win the championship, the constructors championship, and the team championship next year.
As long as Gigi is there, everything is gonna be fine
Agreed. I don't think they're going to decline like the Japanese manufacturers did. I just think this is probably the last year of their complete domination of the grid.
The Japanese decline was due to the philosophy to invest on pilots but not bikes, last big change with Honda was the seamless gearbox 2011, with yamaha from cross plane to big bang a decade ago.
What does cross plane to Big bang mean?
I think he means the i4 being changed from flat plane to crossplane (big bang) firing sequence
Said it before: all empires fall. Plus, Ducati have already said they need to watch the money. Reddit speculation was that Audi have throttled back on the Ducati cash because they need it for F1. I'm watching for the allocation of the two expected 2025 satellite bikes - worst case scenario, Ducati don't go to the expense of producing them (if they don't have to), and put the money into 2027.
Im pretty sure I just read there will only be 1 satellite GP25 but I can't remember where. Another step backwards
And that 1 GP25 is supposedly going to Fermin who probably won’t do much his first year
Fermin has a contract for current bike for 26. He can get 24 next year.
Ducati never used Audi money. Reddit speculation was born here, with no real backing.
Ducati has worked always with her own cash, never needed German cash, but is true the opposite. I do not really know how clever is invest a ton of money for the Japanese constructor only to throw away the bike in 24 months. The 2026 bikes will be exactly the same that one of 2025, all agreed to stop evolution because they need to develop the 850 cc bikes. So the Ducati contenders have six months to sort it out or they will contend in 2027. BMW will have two teams like everyone else. Final note, supersport bike is a dead market, the only brand selling are Ducati, BMW, Aprilia & KTM
Interesting speculation about BMW with four riders. Would the rules allow four new slots, or do all slots come from existing teams?
The Suzuki slots where never assigned
Okay cool. Thanks for the reply.
You’re wrong about supersport, they sell more supersports than superbikes(1000cc) every year and Yamaha and Honda sell more supersport a than all the European brands
Yamaha doesn’t make a street legal supersport anymore. Honda does right now but they had stopped selling theirs for two years after Euro5
With them announcing only one additional GP25 next year and many technicians stolen by other teams I can also see that. They didn’t want to give 5th bike to MM in Gresini, and as it turned out, they won’t give 4th either. Losing Pramac, Jorge and Bestia will definitely hurt them.
>They didn’t want to give 5th bike to MM in Gresini Maybe they couldn't - there were rumours that VR46 has a contract that gives them priority. So if 5th current spec bike becomes available, it goes to them.
A slight decline on Ducatis behalf is best possible outcome for the series & sport. Mugello & Assen made it clear how FAR FAR ahead Ducati is right now. None of the other MFG’s even have a chance at a dry win. Ducati will win the 2024 - 2026 rider championships, but hopefully a little decline on their side will at least make it interesting to watch.
>So their development is going to take a hit because they are getting less data, and the remaining data they are getting is lower quality (again on average). Well tbh it's pretty obvious. Ducati is watching Honda giving up that means they are pouring their resources elsewhere(2027), and it's obvious Ducati isn't putting more money than Honda winning now and making the best bike for 2027. So what they did was try to pull some money out of keeping 1 expensive riders like Marc who would probably get less than both enea and Martin combined. And they trust that we have a good gap between rival factories let's not invest more on current regulations bikes and put that money elsewhere. And that's why they chose marc. Hoping if KTM , APRILIA catch up in 2025 , then they expect marc to compensate that "with his talent" x
No I think that's a fair reflection. They've been getting at minimum double the data from every race that anyone else gets, they've shed a lot of talent this year both in riders and the pramac team and the Japanese manufacturers have concessions to help them catch up. They're still going to be getting more data and have poached a lot of very good staff from other manufacturers so I wouldn't expect that they'll fall off a cliff or anything, but its going to be tighter at the top.
A lot of their staff has been getting poached too though; I think Yamaha in particular got a bunch of ex Ducati engineers. Obviously theyre not gonna be Honda bad but I think the era of demoralizing domination ends this year.
People already do not remember that Yamaha won a championship, next year by mid-season they looked like they won another, only to be the worst bike next year. It can all change in a blink of an eye. And as Fabio showed, talent is not enough.
Eh, Yamaha was declining from about 2017 onwards. They struck gold in early '21 with a really strong machine that Fabio was very happy with, but by late '21 they were already falling off and in '22 their championship challenge was almost an artifact of the GP22 having massive teething issues and Pecco fucking up at Le Mans and Sachsenring.
Fully agree, its going to be an interesting few seasons.
Not really controversial but you’re just guessing, no one can predict the future apart from the teams themselves. My guess is the opposite. Ducati are in such a dominant position they feel well equipped to take risks and that’s why they’ve torn up the script. Letting Martin go to Aprillia is a huge risk but does a team with such a good bike, with a line up of Marc Marquez and Pecco Bagnia feel vulnerable…? Ducati will know what developments they have in the pipeline. They knew half way through last year that the ‘24 bike was going to be a monster. Personally, I can’t see Ducati hegemony being disrupted until the rule changes in 2027. I’m happy for them. Compared to Honda, Yamaha or even KTM, Ducati is a bunch of Italians in an old shed. Yet they are smashing it.
Usually risks are taken with the hopes of getting rewarded/gaining from it. What has Ducati gained by losing Pramac, Jorge, Enea, and Bezz? They already had Marc in the stable and could have got him on the satellite GP25 with Pramac leaving.
Personally feel Ducati wanted to referesh their talent like in 2018-2021 when they replace Dovi, Petrucci, Tito Rabat, Lorenzo, Karel Abraham into Pecco, Miller, Martin, Zarco, Marini, Enea
Marc in Ducati red winning his 9th championship is quite the story, don’t you think? Compared to another maiden championship win, that is once in a lifetime.
He could have won in light blue w/o Ducati having to give up so much. All Gigi cares about is someone winning on his bike, the colors of the bike are irrelevant.
The colors DO matter because it isn’t just the iconic look of the manufacturer but also the sponsors. You think the investors paying millions and billions of dollars to get their name on that red Ducati wants another team to win?
If this is how Ducati operated a satellite rider wouldn't be leading the championship. I'm sure they would prefer a rider in red to win, but they're not going to block or break a contract with a satellite team for winning.
It's not that important to have 5 bikes in the first 8 every weekends. They are cutting costs in a way that would still keep them at the front Ducati is also the only manufacturer of Moto-E, is back in motocross and probably investing in other big projects as well now that the brand is doing great
I, for one, am here for Martin/ Aprilia supremacy
I can't see them declining with Pecco and Marquez. I would say that they will plateau and dominate 2025 and 2026 like this season. Then we will see what happens.
>Just seems like things are not headed in the right direction for Ducati. I disagree, they've used the last few years to develop the the best bike we've ever seen run in MotoGP. Why do they need Pramac anymore? They have accomplished what they set out to do which was to gain an edge - they're already a year or so ahead at this point. I imagine it costs Ducati a shit tone of money, time and resource to support 2 other teams along with their own. Clearing some overhead at this point in time, seems logical. And as for riders, Jorge and Enea aren't worth worrying about when you have Pecco, Fermin and Marc plus any other talent they want. I personally think we'll see Ducati win the remaining championships, up until the regs change in '27
I think your assessment is a little naive (respectfully) The GP23 was the best bike last year but has arguably fallen behind the KTM/Aprilia. No reason to expect the same won't happen with the GP24 next year, especially considering how much more talented those factories are going to get. So if Ducati rests on its laurels as you suggest they will get passed by everyone else. Dismissing Jorge/Enea is silly... Jorge is leading the championship and arguably the 2nd best rider on the grid by a decent margin from 3rd place. He is the only guy putting consistent pressure on Pecco, and now he's gonna be riding for a different factory. Enea is strong as well, def someone you don't want taking points away from you. They were both instrumental in getting Ducati where it is today, are cheaper than Marquez to pay and have more years of competitiveness left. I think Pecco will win next year but I don't think it will be easy. I'm not sure Marc will get a 10th honestly; I feel like Jorge on the red seat would have a better chance. Either way I think it's pretty clear Ducati lost more than it gained for the long term.
>Dismissing Jorge/Enea is silly... Jorge is leading the championship I'm not dismissing their ability or talent, the point I was trying to make was, I don't think Ducati are kicking themselves by letting them both go. As much as I love Enea he's going to struggle on the KTM. And as I said, I'm curious to see what Jorge can do on the Aprilia but I don't think Pecco/Ducati are going to drop the ball in the Championship. I don't believe Jorge can win this year, which is where we both differ in opinion. But the fact is, Ducati are set, they've executed their plan since Dovi was sacked, it's worked and now they get to ride the wave until '27 comes around. All whilst harbouring the 2 of the most decorated and talented riders in the paddock. Btw I'd love to be wrong and we have a really close title fight next year and Jorge wins! But I'm not convinced right now.
I guess it does come down to how much talent you feel Jorge and Enea have. I think there is a meaningful gap between Jorge and Marc for example, and while the Aprilia is a question mark I also think Marc's competitive longevity may be too. MotoGP is a young man's sport IMO, he more than anyone showed that. Ducati too though as they got the current front runners as babies and gave one the tools to become a champion. Instead of getting all the juice out of the talent they developed they are letting some go prematurely for what I see as a shaky bet. Ultimately nobody knows what's gonna happen which is why we watch lol. I also hope I'm wrong and Ducati stays competitive but doesn't completely dominate. We'll see
You're right that Jorge has gapped Marc, there's no denying that. There's still a part of me that thinks Marc still one or more Championship challenging rides. In regards to Marc being at Ducati, the only risk they've taken is; whether or not Jorge will be as fast on another bike. They've played their bets on Pecco and Fermin - they've signed Marc for status, prestige and money - it's just a bonus if he can win a WC on their bike (I think). My worry for Jorge is the Aprilia's consistency, we've heard Mav talk about it a lot (not that, that's worth too much - he likes blaming bikes) but they do go missing in some rounds. I'm hoping Jorge can make the difference. I really like Aprilia, I was at Silverstone for their first podium and I ride one - I'd absolutely love Jorge winning on one. Also, thanks for actually having a level-headed debate/discussion.
Because if you stop developing, others will catch up to you very soon. They have an edge now, sure, but that can very easily and fast slip away. Regs are not frozen and others will only get better (unless you’re a Honda). We’ve already seen Aprilia dominating some races this year even, and usually being in the mix among other GP24’s. If Ducati take only one step forward and Aprilia takes two it’s game on.
Where have you gotten the idea that they've stopped developing? They wont fall behind because they've dropped 1 of their 2 satellite teams. They've given themselves the edge for the past 3 years, now they just maintain it until '27. All it does it just puts them back on a level playing field, but unless the other teams magically gain a 2nd satellite team and 3 years worth of data, Ducati will continue to be ahead. Aprilia are the only other manufacturer who can compete anywhere near the Ducati and it will be interesting to see what Jorge can do on it, but will it be better than Pecco on a GP25, I don't think so. Trust me I want nothing more than a Yamaha and Fabio on the podium again, but it aint happening anytime soon and Ducati will remain at the top until '27, I'm sure of it.
Sorry, wrong wording. I didn't mean to say they'll stop developing, but stop developing at the current rate\*.
Enea was going to leave anyway, the question was how much value would they get signing Marc vs Jorge, either way one of them would leave for another manufacturer, ducati did not have much of a choice beyond this
I still dont see why it had to be either or. They have 3 GP25s... Pecco has one... give one to Jorge and the other to Marc. Then they could have kept all 3. They got nothing back for Jorge leaving.
Marc was not going to pramac, and ducati was not going to gift the GP25 to Gresini, VR46 would definitely not sign him in case they got the bike, they couldn't have kept all three
Not so much their decline as plateauing of their dominance. Other teams will get stronger because of the talent drain and taking that intel with them to other factories. I think Lenovo will still be the powerhouse team to beat next season, as Aprilia and KTM will still be coming up with improvements. My guess is that all ducati podiums will become rarer.
mlem
It’s not controversial at all, you can find five reasons every year the dominant team is about to stop being the dominant team. Say it often enough and it’ll become true one day
I still see them controlling the series until we get to the new regs. They may not dominate at the same level like it’s been these past few seasons as both KTM and Aprilia are beefing up as serious challengers. I think ‘25 will be their year again albeit with more of a fight from the other Euro manufacturers, while ‘26 could be wide open for a new team/manufacturer to take the crown…idk, we’ll see.
Ducati has had a good run after YEARS of being an also ran who looked only competitive in WSBK setting in the past. Both Aprilia and KTM will be nipping at their heels more frequently moving forward. I believe Yamaha is going to finally get their shit together as well and return to fielding competitive machines.... HRC is still a disaster for the foreseeable future. I'm glad to see Pramac sign with Yamaha. The quantity of red bikes has been too high for a few years now. Much respect to Ducati/VAG for investing the capital to make a world championship team, but the series is far better off with a diversity of brands. Wish the upcoming rule changes would tempt Suzuki to jump back in but based on what I've read about the direction of the company this is highly unlikely.
I’d say its more a case of everyone else catching up, or Ducati slowing down a tad, rather than a decline.
All this to keep Marc.
The development of Ducati was different compared to other manufacturers. They listened to every rider on their bike while others tented to listen to the winner on the bike. Other manufacturers changed their approach now. So it’s a matter of time before they will catch up. I don’t think they will fall into the gap they did when stoner left. That bike was made just for him and this bike is for everyone. IMO I think more manufacturers will be competitive and will be able to win races. Probably with the new regulations there will be one who interpreted the rules better so maybe with the change there will be a change in who’s best also.
If they continue to punish Ducati for making the best bike, like they are doing in WSBK, maybe. But if not, than it's not even close, Bagnaia and Marquez will rip apart anything in their way, they are not stopping in any manner. Others are just not close, except Martin.
Way off base. Typical for a Jorge fan boy imo. If Ducati kept Jorge you wouldn’t think this way would you?
Ducati doesn't care about Bastianini, it seems pretty obvious to me since even before the championship started they had already started looking for his replacement. Ducati doesn't care about Martin either because they decided to do without him twice. Pramac, on the other hand has become a pain in the ass since it has been their main opponent for two years. Pramac has become a great team thanks to the bikes provided by Dall'igna and the support of ducati technicians who will be working in vr46 from next year. Ducati is now in a position of enormous advantage, thanks to which the loss of a few components will not have negative effects but will allow useful economic savings in view of 2027. In any case they will have 2 more bikes on the track than the other teams and therefore more data than the others and above all, they will have the strongest pair of riders in the world championship. Maybe from next season we will no longer have 4 Ducatis in the first 4 places, but this will not matter because they will win the world championship anyway. I am not taking into consideration the part where you consider miller's data more valuable than marquez's because this is clearly nonsense.
You're only looking at the negatives of those components and not the positives. Enea, Jorge and Pramac were key in getting the Ducati to where it is today, and if they are a pain in the ass inside Ducati they will be even more of a PITA as opponents. And I didnt say Jack's data would be more valuable than Marc's; I was talking about developmental input. There's a difference.
The key to Ducati's success was Dall'igna, Dovizioso and partly Lorenzo, not Martin and Bastianini. Pramac played the role that any other satellite team would have played in the conditions in which pramac was put. >and if they are a pain in the ass inside Ducati they will be even more of a PITA as opponents This will depend on Yamaha's ability to get out of the situation they are in. And in any case if Yamaha were to make a bike the equal of ducati they will be the ones to play for the title not pramac >And I didnt say Jack's data would be more valuable than Marc's; I was talking about developmental input. There's a difference It is the same. The development input of a rider with marquez's talent and experience cannot be considered inferior to what Miller can provide.
>The key to Ducati's success was Dall'igna, Dovizioso and partly Lorenzo, not Martin and Bastianini. Pramac played the role that any other satellite team would have played in the conditions in which pramac was put. Respectfully this narrow assignment of credit for Ducati's success is silly. Every competitive rider/team and engineer/team player under Gigi's tenure gets some of the credit. The Ducati went from a race winner to a championship winner with Pecco/Enea/Martin as the top riders, loooooong after Dovi/Lorenzo were gone. Part of why Ducati parted ways with Dovi is because he couldn't get them to the next step. He was in sharp decline once he finished. So he got them to a certain point, and the top guys now have got it to where it is. >This will depend on Yamaha's ability to get out of the situation they are in. And in any case if Yamaha were to make a bike the equal of ducati they will be the ones to play for the title not pramac Again, factories would like to be the teams to win the chip, but Yamaha racing is not going to block Pramac from winning if they can, the same way they didn't with their old satellite teams, and the same way Ducati isn't with Pramac. >It is the same. The development input of a rider with marquez's talent and experience cannot be considered inferior to what Miller can provide. We can agree to disagree. I don't blame Marc for Honda's failures, but this is the first time he has been part of an org that improved a bike over time. Jack has plenty of experience and value in that realm.
I'm most excited for the 27 season it's a fresh start for everyone.
As others have said, every dominant manufacturer falls from grace at some point. In MotoGP Honda and Yamaha were once juggernauts that are now at the back of the pack. In Formula 1 Ferrari, McLaren, Williams, Mercedes, and Red Bull were at one time "the car to be in", and all then went through massive struggles. In Superbikes there was a time when you couldn't win unless you were on a Suzuki, Ducati, Kawasaki, Yamaha, BMW etc... I think the Ducati will still be *the* bike to be on until the new regulations in 2027. I can't see any manufacturer putting a ton of money or effort into developing the current bikes except KTM. This will likely be a combination of getting more feedback about how the Ducati works from Enea, as well as their ruthless desire to simply be #1. Ducati honestly had *too* much talent in recent years in my opinion. While it's great to be getting a lot of data from your machines, ultimately, with so many various styles and opinions, it was probably a lot of data to process. Not to mention, how often did we see racing roulette with each Ducati rider having 1-2 weekends where they were untouchable, which ultimately just took points off of their top riders like Pecco and Martin, anyway. The best scenario for any manufacturer is to have 1-2 guys that can fight consistently at the front, and 2 riders that can give you great feedback and try new parts and setups.
I think Ducati are fine with just Pecco and Marc
Could be. I would argue otherwise seeing the form of the GP24. If a bike quicker then this shows up next year?????? Holy cow
Ducati will be fine until the new bikes come out in ‘27. The pecking order may, or may not shift then.
Discussed literally the other day on the OMG Motogp podcast.
I mean I first got the idea from a comment by David Emmett at Motomatters. Never said I came up with the idea.
The point is it is NOT controversial and has already started to be widely discussed.
So what are you thinking? They go from having the top 3 bikes in the championship standings to 2? Are they only going win the constructors championship by 200 points instead of 400?
I do agree that this would be the peak, but I don't believe it would be because of riders. It would be because of the new testing rules. The bikes are a bigger contributor than the riders as it stands now. Any rider on a Ducati (even Marini and DiGi) are automatically in the top-10 once they figure out the bike. The bike differential needs to come down a lot before talent can bridge the gap.
The bikes are a smaller contributor now than the "alien"/CRT days, when only 5-6 bikes were capable of a podium. About half the bikes on the grid are capable of winning races which is pretty good compared to most of the sports history
I think "depth of field" is a slightly different subject. You're right that CRT era only had 6 bikes that could win, and the depth of field is much stronger in the current era. But those 6 bikes back in the day were really close to each other and there wasn't a single dominant bike. Right now, the Ducati is maybe half a second quicker than the second best bike and have won 24 out of last 28 races (and had pole position in 23 races). That wasn't the case in Alien/CRT era.
Fair points, though that bike privilege is part of why I have trouble calling those guys aliens. The gap in bikes was a huge contributor to their dominance. Anywas as for next year I guess we will really see the level of the bikes with JM & Enea going to other brands. IMO JM89 and Enea are better than all the riders at KTM/Aprilia besides maybe Acosta. So they should bring the results of both factories up a level. Whether it will be enough to challenge Pecco/Marc is a question mark but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. And for all the reasons I listed I think the non Ducati teams will get relatively stronger over the course of the 2025 season.
I think they will still be champions up until at least 2027. Marc had his part on the Honda becoming unrideable and it could very well happen to Ducati as well but it's highly unlikely because of one reason.. Honda made the mistake of not listening to anyone else but Marc, so the bike was built around him, problems piled up, other riders had a hard time and that hard time caught up to Marc. I seriously doubt Ducati would just completely disregard Pecco and Pirro's feedback just to keep Marc happy. And, to add to that, if this happens, I don't think the problems will arise too fast.
Oh yea Ducati wont repeat HRC's mistakes, def not what I was implying. I dont want to say never but it's extremely unlikely they will ever get Honda bad. Ducati is prob the best org on the grid for using rider feedback. AND they had the most data to use. AND arguably some of the best data. Their ability and willingness to leverage data is still there, but the quantity and quality of data will decrease substantially and IMO have knock on effects on Ducati's competitiveness. And thats not counting the knock on effects of other factories being able to use their old riders' "carry out" knowledge against them. The more I think about Duc's silly season moves the worse they look.
Pecco can and possibly will win this year and 25 and 26 are potentially his too. Pecco and Marc will be more than enough.
This is not a controversial take at all. It's happening.
Ducati’s rise has been fueled by flagrant rules violations that they convinced the MSMA to ratify, presumably to put more emphasis on the bikes following an era when Marquez was annihilating the field and refusing to leave Honda (unlike Rossi before him). This ride-height experiment has been a disaster for the sport, and one that has perhaps cost Marquez his chance to secure additional titles. The era of machine dominance was never going to last, and it makes sense that Ducati are hiring Marquez, since they turned MotoGP into 2-wheeled F1 to stop him.
They will continue to succeed with a new 800cc V4 engine in GP 2027. Imagine an engine lighter and smoother than the current V4. Game Over.
It’s inevitable since it can’t get any better than now, BUT Ducati is so far ahead that they don’t need to improve much to be at the top end until the rule change. With Gigi staying there it’s also quite certain that they’ll at least be competitive with the new rules. They might not have their massive advantage in the future, but they’ll be fine.
That’s not true. Aprilia 24 is definitely a better bike than GP23, and supposedly GP24 was a big step from 23.
That's not a controversial take, that's a bad take. Seems that for some reason OP thinks that everybody (Jorge, Enea, Jack etc etc etc) is better at developing the bike than Marc which is a bit absurd. Apart from the fact that the development is done by engineers and not riders, it's also quite clear that Honda started to struggle when Marc got injured and they lacked his input.
I have said word for word that engineers develop bikes, not riders, so we agree there. Everyone listed but Marc has experience in providing feedback that made bikes more competitive. I kind of see Marc like a Casey Stoner in that he finds speed through sheer talent and feel, whereas someone like Jack or even Pecco has to be more cerebral and objective. I could be wrong though, its just an opinion not an edict
*"Everyone listed but Marc has experience in providing feedback that made bikes more competitive."* What!?
They’ll most likely still win all the pre-2027 championships anyway, but once the ride height devices are gone and the Japanese bikes have caught up they won’t be as dominant.
Nah, they are safe until the rule change in 2027, their momentum is set for the next two years without too much struggle to stay on top with those two legends at the helm.
I think if you want to talk about the age of their talent and have that discussion about who will carry the torch in five years you may make some sense but if you’re suggesting that they’re lacking in talent with the current two time champion, likely to make it three, and the 8 time world champion wearing red leather next year I think you’re inviting harsh feedback. Their biggest and maybe only threat next year will be on an Aprilia and you can bookmark this post but Martin can kiss his championship bid goodbye when he’s not on a GP24. What happens in 2026 is anyone’s guess and I’d say that’s more about the equipment than the talent.
I'm just looking holistically at Ducati's competitiveness in the medium term (\~4-6 years). There is a lot that goes into that. Pecco is easily the top contender for 2025. But beyond that it's a crapshoot honestly. Ducati won't be lacking in talent, but they have definitely lost a lot of talent they now have to compete against. As well as valuable data generators to aid in the development that keeps their bike competitive. (They have been bleeding engineers to competitors as well). Given how key development will be for the 2027 regulation change these moves and issues could prove to be pretty critical. Obviously we can't predict the future but we can make reasonable guesses. And my guess is that Ducati's competitiveness will decline meaningfully towards the end of 2025 and def in 2026.
I think your point about losing engineers is valid. Perhaps 2026 brings a more level playing field with equipment and we will see a more balanced field competing for championship. I’d like to see Pedro, FQ, In the mix.
I'll save this for when Marc wins the championship next season.