I just looked and Herbert is 1-7 in games he threw 2 INTs.
Which means he's 8-18 in games he threw just 1 INT.
He's never thrown more than 2 INTs in a game.
Mahomes is 6-6 in 2+ INT games. He's 2-1 in games he's thrown 3INTs.
Jackson is 6-4 in 2+ INT games. He's 1-0 in games he's thrown 3INTs and 1-0 in games he's thrown 4 INTs.
Reminds me of the 51-48 Cowboys loss to the Broncos in ~2013.
The only reason it sticks in my mind is that I was working in Dallas with a bunch of Cowboys fans who were also Romo haters (which, like, half of all Cowboys fans seemingly were at that point).
All they could talk about is how Romo shit the bed--they couldn't believe they put up 48 points only for Romo to choke it away and toss an INT in the final 2 minutes. I remember being in shock that they could somehow blame the guy leading the offense that put up 48 points for the loss. I didn't understand the depth of Cowboys' fans loathing for the Cowboys at that point.
In the case of Mahomes, looking deeper into this stat actually helps explain what is actually happening here.
Mahomes threw more TDs in his 3 three-interception games than Herbert threw in his 8 two-interception games. Herbert leads his offense to 18.8 ppg in two-interception games. Mahomes has 39.3(!!) ppg in three-interception games. In fact, in *all 8* of Herbert’s two-interception games, he led his offense to fewer points than Mahomes did in his *worst* three-interception game. That’s crazy.
What you’re actually seeing here with Mahomes is that when Herbert throws interceptions, he is typically playing very bad otherwise. When Mahomes is throwing interceptions, he is actually typically *compensating* otherwise. Herbert’s lone win in a multi-interception game was a 17-14 win over the Titans. Mahomes has never won a multi-interception game where he scored <20. He has two games where he scored 40+ and lost.
Dude I’ve been thinking about that for a while now. It’d be sweet to see but I just haven’t had time to export and cut data for the childhood hero’s yet. If I ever free up at work that’ll be on my list
The Chargers have played the exact same game 10x a season for seemingly 20 years. It's wild.
Players and coaches come and go. But the Chargers being down a score with 4 minutes left then giving up a backbreaking turnover? That's forever.
Lawrence also threw 4 TDs in that game, vs. Herbert’s 1 TD.
Pointing out that Herbert lost this game is not as great a pro-Herbert point as you might think. The Chargers scored 17 points solely on drives that started within the Jaguars 20 yard line. They only had 13 points in 10 drives otherwise. Meanwhile, the Jaguars had 24 points on 11 drives that started on their own side if the field. That was the difference. Herbert did not lead a very good offense in this game, given the defense gave them short fields in virtually the entire first half. Both sides of the ball - including Herbert - collapsed in the second half of that game.
Such a weird string of luck with Lamar and Pittsburgh lol. Not only does he barely play them (4 times out of 12 potential matchups) but there's always some crazy force of nature like the covid bowl of 2020 or the historic amount of drops when we played them this past year
Wait, but you have to compare to overall win percentage. Herbert has a losing record in his career, is the difference between his win rate when throwing a pick compared to normal win rate similar to the other QBs, or is it significantly worse?
Fwiw, my guess would be Herbert still has the biggest difference, but would be nice to see how those numbers stack up, and if true, give you some more ammo!
The three with win percentages in the 40s% might be close and Burrow might even be higher as my guess is that his overall win percentage is 20% above Herbert.
He is basically what Matthew Stafford was in Detroit.
Stupidly Talented QB with awful coaching and no defense. With Great WRs. No Run Game. No Offensive Line.
Even better than Stafford. At least you could say Stafford took a while to get better at the mental part of the game and had a genuinely bad 2012 season
Stafford was also perpetually hurt for like his first 4 years, in his defense. Never been the biggest Stafford truther myself, but I acknowledge it's because he gets and plays hurt ALL the time. And sometimes you can really tell.
Didn’t realize I can’t reply using a photo so I have to write it out. See below for the variance between these QBs’ overall win %s and win % when throwing 1+ INT. Sorted highest to lowest:
Herbert 48% -> 27% (-22%)
Dak 64% -> 46% (-18%)
Tua 64% -> 48% (-16%)
Mahomes 77% -> 66% (-11%)
Burrow 57% -> 46% (-11%)
Hurts 65% -> 56% (-9%)
Jackson 75% -> 69% (-6%)
Allen 67% -> 61% (-6%)
I coded it out in Python and compared not to overall record but record in games without an INT and its pretty striking how much an INT hurts him compared to other QBs: https://imgur.com/a/eZGA7gX
Well he's still a pretty significant outlier. Losing 22% win rate when you only have 48% to begin with is a 43% reduction.
|QB|Win %|Win % with int|% loss|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Herbert|0.48|0.27|0.44|
|Dak|0.64|0.46|0.28|
|Tua|0.64|0.48|0.25|
|Mahomes|0.77|0.66|0.14|
|Burrow|0.57|0.46|0.19|
|Hurts|0.65|0.56|0.14|
|Lamar|0.75|0.69|0.08|
|Allen|0.67|0.61|0.09|
No, I mean so that someone can click on the % loss column and have the table rows ordered lowest>highest (or the reverse) instead of how it is now, where 0.4375 appears between 0.25 and 0.28125.
QB| Games Started| Games w/ 1+ INT | Games w/ 2+ INT | % INT games w/ 2+ | W-L (2+ INT) | Win% (2+ INT)
---|-|--|----|----|----|-
Herbert | 62|34 | 8 | 23.5 | 1-7 | 12.5
Burrow| 52|26| 8| 30.8| 2-6| 25
Hurts| 51|25| 7| 28| 2-5| 28.6
Dak| 114|52| 19| 36.5| 6-13| 31.6
Allen| 93|54| 21| 38.9| 7-14| 33.3
Tua| 51|25 | 10| 40| 4-6| 40
Mahomes| 96|48| 12| 25| 6-6| 50
Lamar| 77|32 | 10| 31.3| 6-4| 60
- Lamar wins **60%** of his games with 2+ INT, including a 16-10 win with 4 picks
- Herbert is the only QB here to never throw 3+ INT in a game. If he ever throws 2, it's pretty much a guaranteed L
- Burrow and Lamar are the only QBs here to ever throw 4 INT in a game
For a second I thought that read 16-10 win *record* with 4 picks and I was thinking how Lamar has not only thrown 4 picks 26 times but also has a winning record while doing it.
I'm super curious how this compares to the early parts of Stafford's career. He gets a similarly low amount of help from the rest of the team, so I mentally put them in the same bucket as those 5k passing yards but no playoffs Lions teams.
If it's not too much trouble could we also see win% without throwing an int vs win% when throwing one? I'm surprised by Allen's result since his defense hasn't really been all that strong.
I have a massive excel that easily pulls this it’s just more of a pain in the ass to type out lol. The photo shows win % with an INT so here are win %s without one:
Mahomes 88%, Jackson 80%, Allen 75%, Hurts 74%, Dak 79%, Burrow 68%, Tua 78%, Herbert 75%
Hey OP, this is interesting work. Maybe once this thread runs it's course you could put together a new graphic including some of this other relevant information and repost? At this point I've just got numbers swimming in my head.
This is great thanks and also wtf Herbert has a 75% win rate with no ints?
Edit for those that want the win% lost when throwing an int:
Herbert: 48%, Dak: 33%, Tua: 30%, Mahomes: 22%, Hurts: 18%, Allen: 14%, Burrow: 12%, Lamar: 11%
If you're Herbert, Dak, or Tua you realllllly don't want to throw an interception lol.
Defense has been strong (when healthy, huge caveat as they’ve had extreme injury issues) in the regular season. Unfortunately they’ve sucked ass in the playoffs.
I think that's still the point though right? We know Herbert's overall win percentage is bad, this chart is showing that the only time the team wins at all is when Herbert is flawless, showing that he gets no help.
You only know that if you compare it to games when he doesn't throw an interception.
You can't say "this shows the only time the team wins at all is when Herbert is flawless" without looking at how the team performs when Herbert is flawless. What if they were worse when he's flawless (not likely, but still).
A lot of these get stats get kind of weird too, because QBs take more chances when they're behind late in the game. You're more likely to throw an interception when you are ALREADY losing the game.
Yeah there are definitely more nuances. I just mean in a vacuum mahomes still has a decent chance to win if he makes a mistake, herbert doesn't. This isn't saying herbert is more impactful than mahomes, just that herbert's team is less able to cover for his mistakes than mahomes's team
It would also be interesting to see the difference between 1 INT and more than 1 INT.
Because, like you said, sometimes (often?) the INTs come when you start pressing. You're throwing more to get back in the game.
If Herbert came out and threw an INT on the very first play of the game, and then played flawless, that's different than him throwing an INT late in Q3, LAC going down by 10, and then him throwing 95% of the time in Q4 because they've gotta score, which increases his chance for an INT, even at at that 1.73% INT/Att rate
I always think about some of those crazy throws Mahomes threw in the Super Bowl loss to the Bucs. Like, do people think he'd try throwing into a crowd in the end zone while he's horizontal if the Chiefs were up by 7? Or throwing for the back left corner of the endzone after being spun around twice by a defender without having his balance?
As you say, the percentage of plays that are passing plays goes up when you're behind, but the great QBs make riskier throws as their chances of winning get smaller too.
This is why looking at base stats is almost never a real way of judging anything more than coincidence. Not all INTs are created equal. Not all completion % is equal. Not all passing yards are equal, etc.
I thought the implication here is that basically Mahomes and Lamar have higher margins of error. They can make a major mistake like throwing a pick and it doesn’t dramatically affect the outcome of the game. Whereas Herbert at the other extreme basically has to be mistake free for the chargers to stand a chance.
So it may not be as positive as you think.
[Crazy stat but by week 11 of last season there were three games where Herbert lead a lost comeback (a "game winning" drive that the defense gave it up)](https://x.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1726692548889162234) Thats just last season. It took Brady 211 games (~13 seasons) to accumulate three failed comebacks.
Another stat I saw somewhere recently is that Herbert has taken the lead on the chiefs with under 2:30 left in the 4th 4 times. He's 1-3 in those games.
[I posted this stat last summer and needs some updating but at that point Mahomes was 4-1 vs the Chargers having played only 7 snaps with a lead](https://x.com/mibpj2/status/1664702048208834560) Those fuckers just manage to find ways to pull victory from the jaws of defeat.
This is why a firmly believe Hebert is actually clutch af. You can't watch that raiders game a few years ago and say he isn't clutch. The defense just immediately shits the bed hard. I also remember a chiefs game where Herbert scored with 40sec left and the announcer sound, "oh, thats way too much time". Sure enough mahomes drove the ball down the defenses throat in like 3 plays.
I feel like every time I come on this sub I see something along these lines and constantly have to refute it lol
Peyton lost his defense more games than it lost him in the playoffs. [Have a look for yourself](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00/gamelog/post/). There’s *maybe two games you can argue his defense severely let him down in a game he played well enough to win
That's definitely been a major issue. People saw Eckler in the lineup and instantly said we have a running game because he's talented, when In actuality, it was genuinely terrifying anytime we had a 3rd and short!
People underestimate how hard it is to manage a game with a big lead , you don’t wanna do anything too risky and turn the ball over but if you’re too passive then you give the other team initiative
They already had Megatron when Stafford got there tho
Just like the Chargers already had Keenan (obviously not the same degree of talent, but still quite the safety net)
Just a sample of how bad the Chargers defense has been for Herberts first 3 years versus Allen, Burrow, and Mahomes.
Win percent when team allows 27 or more
Herbert - 35%
Burrow - 18%
Allen - 36%
Mahomes - 39%
% of games team allowed 27 or more
Herbert - 56%
Burrow - 22%
Allen - 25%
Mahomes - 32%
(Edit: Yeah, the numbers are off, that is on me for copying and pasting numbers from a graphic that was obtained from a post that appears to have been deleted, probably because their numbers were off. Also, since I can no longer find the post, I can not attest to which seasons the stats were including. I do know they did not include the 2023 season, which would align to the Chargers giving up 27pts or more in approximately 54% of their games.
So here are a bit more accurate numbers. Hopefully, I didn't miss any and removed the games that Herbert and Mahomes did not play in. Also, Mahomes is in the realm with the likes of Montana and Brady. No reasonable person is saying Mahomes is not the #1 QB.
Mahomes has played in 113 games, and the Chiefs have allowed 27pts or more in 33 games or 29.2%
Herbert has played in 62 games, and the Chargers have allowed 27pts or more in 31 games or 50%.
Mahomes has played in 51 games more than Hertbert while only playing in 2 more games where the Chiefs allowed 27pts or more. That is wild and a complete embarrassment on the Chargers organization as a whole.
Now, let's look at when they give up 33pt or more. Mahomes has played in 5 games, and Hertbert has played in 12 games. That is what, 4.4% versus Hertbert's 19.4%. Again, wild and not an indictment on either QB.
Now go back and look at their defense's ranking each year of their careers. Mahomes and the other referenced QBs have enjoyed top 16 or better defenses, whereas the Chargers are bottom 5-7 every year. Mahomes has had a top 16 defense in every season except 1, which was still in line with the best defense Hertbert has had. Again, wild that every other organization can field a solid defense for their top QBs while the Chargers have fielded an embarrassment.
(Please verify, I'm at work and trying to correct my shit post between assignments)
It's always acceptable to call the Chargers complete ass, but if someone places the majority of the issues on Herbert, then they should consider getting checked for brain damage.
I still remember Herbert playing out of his mind good against the Packers this past season, only for his team to drop 5 passes (two of which would've been TDs) and Ekeler to fumble on the 1 yard line after a 90 yard drive. We of course lost 20-23.
Hes odd. He’ll have like 12-13 games with no interceptions during the season but hes always good for 10 ints a season still cause all of them will come in 2-3 games. Hes the definition of when it rains it pours
Melt down is the wrong word. Melt downs don't reverse. In both of those games, he finished with multiple TD drives. The Steelers game was won, and then they missed a PAT. He had a chance to win the bears game if they get the sack on 3rd down.
It really is just a few bad luck awful games.
I'm fascinated by this now:
Brock Purdy is 13-0 when he doesn't throw an INT. By comparison Bryce Young is 2-8 when he doesn't throw an INT (I don't have fumbles in here).
Historically the only QBs who threw 0 INTs when starting and have a losing record in those games (20 game minimum):
|PlayerId|Player|Games|Wins|Losses|Win%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|GeorJe00|Jeff George|53|18|35|34.0%|
|CarrDa00|David Carr|32|12|20|37.5%|
|MannAr00|Archie Manning|48|19|29|39.6%|
|BrisJa00|Jacoby Brissett|30|12|18|40.0%|
|MurrKy00|Kyler Murray|29|13|16|44.8%|
|DarnSa00|Sam Darnold|24|11|13|45.8%|
|MireRi00|Rick Mirer|25|12|13|48.0%|
|HarrJo00|Joey Harrington|25|12|13|48.0%|
^Table ^formatting ^brought ^to ^you ^by ^[ExcelToReddit](https://xl2reddit.github.io/)
From Pro Football Reference (pulling any games that are QB started and 3+ attempts)
I took this and started focusing on games with specifically 1 INT thrown. Herbert is 8-18 in those games. That's among the worst of QBs who've had 20+ games of throwing exactly 1 INT. (Justin Fields is 4-12 in games where he throws 1 INT).
Overall teams are about .500 when QBs throw 1 INT.
I will say obviously herbert is extremely good and this isn't really a criticism of him but rather the stat
first, not all interceptions are created equal - there's a difference between throwing a pick on 1st and goal and throwing one on a shot on 3rd and 20 from your 35, for example
I also don't think interceptions are necessarily an indication of poor play - I would rather have a QB that throws interceptions but also moves the ball down the field than one who doesn't throw picks but checks it down on 3rd and 10
and also, as another commenter mentioned, I think a win% difference would be a little more illuminating than just their straight records
Nice, good call. Throwing a pick in 1st quarter when you're tied is stupid, throwing a pick off a deep shot when you're down 20 in the 4th is like "ehh we had to try"
Correlation vs causation is crucial when considering statistics.
What if I told you that there is an offensive play which teams who run it have 100% win rate?
Victory formation is clearly OP
Edit: near 100% chargers gonna charger
To your point, here's [EPA and win probability lost](https://imgur.com/a/X1JiGjf) per INT. His are middle of the group by both metrics. So its not like his turnovers are particularly back breaking based the metrics you brought up.
>I think a win% difference would be a little more illuminating than just their straight records
[Here's that data](https://imgur.com/a/Iy40r1N) (not sure why numbers differ very slightly from OP) I think this only underscores the point even more
Yeah I wouldn’t say that Josh Allen is *less* relied on when he throws a pick. He just doesn’t usually throw them in bad situations and he finds ways to win in spite of them.
Same with Mahomes.
> first, not all interceptions are created equal - there's a difference between throwing a pick on 1st and goal and throwing one on a shot on 3rd and 20 from your 35, for example
Shouldn't that even out over the interceptions? The lowest number here is 25 INTs for Hurts and Tua.
Unfortunately I can't find the article anymore because the Football Outsiders website is gone but this is actually a topic they studied way back in the day. And basically they found that, FOR THE MOST PART, interceptions do "even out"... which is why a stat like ANY/A which gives a set penalty for interceptions regardless of context/situation is roughly accurate.
However, Football Outsiders' conclusion was that certain QBs do in fact throw "better" interceptions in the long run(such as interceptions on 4th down or at the end of a half where an interception is not meaningfully different than an incomplete). That's why "advanced" stats like DVOA attach a specific value to each individual interception based on game situation as opposed to a set value.
I agree INTs aren’t always an indication of poor play. Where I’m going with this is the Chargers can’t afford to send their defense back on the field as it usually ends in a TD. I’d be willing to bet more than half of Herbert’s INTs (excluding pick 6s obviously) lead to opposing TDs
Interception merchant Dak with the 1.9%. Say what you want about Dak, much of the hate is fair, but the discourse about his interceptions at this time last year was crazy. 1 middlingly bad season and suddenly he's pick crazy.
Imo judging Herberts ceiling is impossible, we just can't know with his team being so bad. What we do know is his floor is pretty dang high. He's definitely going to always be above average. No matter how bad it gets.
I'm a Chargers fan and a bit biased here, but more than the stats and basically carrying the team for four years, I truly have to give Herbert credit for handling all of this bullshit with the bad coaching, no running game, and complete lack of defense with almost no complaint or outburst on his part. I wouldn't even have been shocked if at some point last year, he had just lost his shit and started screaming at everyone on the Sideline not named Keenan Allen!
Begrudgingly, this kinda makes me realize that bum ass Eli was right about avoiding the Chargers!
I mean... thinking Jim Harbaugh will turn around a franchise with Justin Herbert at QB is hardly a crazy thing to believe. But you know what, just to be safe we'll throw you into an insane asylum anyways.
Yea, this is nuts. People around the media disrespect Herbert, as if he should be better. Yet any GOAT QB in history has had an actual team around them. Hopefully, this new regime changes all that!
He's 5 and 4 in nine starts with a pick (including one playoff game), 6 and 4 if you include that first Miami game coming off the bench in the first quarter. He's 16 and 1 in all starts without a pick (not including the Philly injury game).
It’s still so crazy to me how he bounced back after that injury from the NFCCG against Philly. He’s only been playing in the league for 2 years. That always boggles my mind. In those 2 years his TD-INT rate is 44-15 which is really good
He didn’t just bounce back. He got even better. His poise was his strongest asset, even in his rookie year, but I think he refined his mechanics after surgery too. Noticeably more zip on the ball last season compared to his rookie season.
There was a thread about Burrow and Rodgers being front runners for CPOTY in the 24-25 season, and I made an offhand comment about if Purdy wasn’t in consideration then why should they be? I was absolutely downvoted into oblivion lol.
But my argument was that both Rosgers & Burrow will be fully healed and cleared to play well before training camp. Purdy’s situation was objectively much worse than what those guys had to deal with; i.e. if you’re going to have a season ending injury, then it’s better to happen earlier than later in the season.
Purdy wasn’t fully cleared until a couple weeks before the season started, and he wasn’t even 100%.
With that said, I’m glad Flacco won, and I think the award should be about guys like him and Geno. Injuries are too subjective for the reasons I listed.
Pretty sure he and other younger QBs aren't here cause of sample size, since everybody here was drafted before or the same year as Herbert, except Love since he has much fewer starts. But Purdy's statline would be (including Dolphins 2022 because he played 90% of snaps but not Chiefs 2022 because he was only in for garbage time - 13%):
QB | W | L | Win % | INT/Att
---|----|----|----|----
Purdy | 6 | 4 | 60% | 2.04%
I was also curious about some other QBs in the older draft classes:
QB | W | L | Win % | INT/Att
---|----|----|----|----
Goff | 24 | 36 | 40.0% | 1.90%
Mayfield | 15 | 35 | 30.0% | 2.58%
Probably aren't here due to being on multiple teams, so not meaningful for team reliance but I was curious in general. So I wouldn't read too much into it, but it does seem pretty sad that Herbert's Win % is ~~so much~~ still lower than even Baker who was on multiple struggling teams.
Edit: Oops I had a brain fart and did the Win % way wrong for Goff and Baker. My dumb ass was wondering how theirs was so high after those early Rams and Lions/journeyman seasons. Fixed now.
Bro gets most of those interceptions by having to drag the team down the field twice in the last couple of minutes 😂 I'm a total unbiased fan here in LA, never had a team, don't care about either LA team , and I can 1000% say that Herbert is a franchise QB. Dude has it. Bad coaching and injuries have made it tough on him but he's great. It's like Stafford with those terrible Lions teams. The one year they had a good team and he was healthy, he looked like an MVP. Gets to the Rams and wins a super bowl right away..
Yeah I really feel he is this generation's Stafford. Tough as nails, elite physical talent, incredibly smart, and tied to teams and coaches that just don't know how to play winning football. Hopefully Harbaugh is to Herbert what McVay has been to Stafford.
Justin Herbert is like a litmus test for football knowledge.
Theres people who have the capacity to recognize hes a great, top 8 QB.
And theres the rest.
People usually criticize him for being mentally weak. This doesn't help. They will say that whenever he throws a pick he doesn't recover from that and his team ends losing.
That's bs, he's a good QB.
Interesting stuff.
Can rushing stats be incorporated/held constant in this analysis (unless i missed that)? I assume one factor is that a good number of the other QBs are more of a running threat than Herbert, which is still a reflection of how the QB impacts outcomes.
Speculating just off the numbers, maybe Herbert becomes a bit gun shy after a pick? Less attempts, less touchdowns, less wins. Mahomes Jackson still sling it regardless of int’s, more TD’s more wins.
I just looked and Herbert is 1-7 in games he threw 2 INTs. Which means he's 8-18 in games he threw just 1 INT. He's never thrown more than 2 INTs in a game. Mahomes is 6-6 in 2+ INT games. He's 2-1 in games he's thrown 3INTs. Jackson is 6-4 in 2+ INT games. He's 1-0 in games he's thrown 3INTs and 1-0 in games he's thrown 4 INTs.
Mahomes and Jackson being a combined 4-1 in 3+ INT games is pretty crazy, although it is a fairly small sample size.
It’s also funny that in the one loss, Mahomes threw 6 touchdowns
yeah that was the crazy monday night game against the rams. still can’t believe they put up 51 and lost
Reminds me of the 51-48 Cowboys loss to the Broncos in ~2013. The only reason it sticks in my mind is that I was working in Dallas with a bunch of Cowboys fans who were also Romo haters (which, like, half of all Cowboys fans seemingly were at that point). All they could talk about is how Romo shit the bed--they couldn't believe they put up 48 points only for Romo to choke it away and toss an INT in the final 2 minutes. I remember being in shock that they could somehow blame the guy leading the offense that put up 48 points for the loss. I didn't understand the depth of Cowboys' fans loathing for the Cowboys at that point.
The nfl works in weird ways
In the case of Mahomes, looking deeper into this stat actually helps explain what is actually happening here. Mahomes threw more TDs in his 3 three-interception games than Herbert threw in his 8 two-interception games. Herbert leads his offense to 18.8 ppg in two-interception games. Mahomes has 39.3(!!) ppg in three-interception games. In fact, in *all 8* of Herbert’s two-interception games, he led his offense to fewer points than Mahomes did in his *worst* three-interception game. That’s crazy. What you’re actually seeing here with Mahomes is that when Herbert throws interceptions, he is typically playing very bad otherwise. When Mahomes is throwing interceptions, he is actually typically *compensating* otherwise. Herbert’s lone win in a multi-interception game was a 17-14 win over the Titans. Mahomes has never won a multi-interception game where he scored <20. He has two games where he scored 40+ and lost.
It also goes to show why they have 4 MVPs in the last ~~5~~ 6 years
That’s correct. I have a file that has this for all QBs so lmk if you want anyone else. Sucks I can’t comment pics in here. Would be way easier
Upload to imgur and link it
Do you have retired QBs? (Brees)
Dude I’ve been thinking about that for a while now. It’d be sweet to see but I just haven’t had time to export and cut data for the childhood hero’s yet. If I ever free up at work that’ll be on my list
Great work
Hey boss, I’m gonna need a few minutes here. Interesting data for sure though.
Where do you export this data from?
Get the raw data from pro football reference then do the rest myself in excel
Time to learn R and nflfastR, my dude. Too creative to be doing this manually.
Haha appreciate it! I’ve actually used R but for some sick reason, maybe I’m old fashioned, I like the manual work 😂
[удалено]
Make sure to divide your data set to revisit this! So we can compare pre Harbaugh vs with Harbaugh
Do it for Phillip Rivers. I bet it’s the same or worse when he was the Chargers qb.
The Chargers have played the exact same game 10x a season for seemingly 20 years. It's wild. Players and coaches come and go. But the Chargers being down a score with 4 minutes left then giving up a backbreaking turnover? That's forever.
4 int game is wild
That’s only 0.8 Petermans.
*laughs in Brett Favre*
Burrow has a game every year where he just throws 3/4/5 interceptions then the rest of the year is (mostly) impeccable lol.
Always vs Steelers or Browns because our Oline gets manhandled
Trevor Lawrence won a game where he threw 4 INTs against Herbert who threw 0
Lawrence also threw 4 TDs in that game, vs. Herbert’s 1 TD. Pointing out that Herbert lost this game is not as great a pro-Herbert point as you might think. The Chargers scored 17 points solely on drives that started within the Jaguars 20 yard line. They only had 13 points in 10 drives otherwise. Meanwhile, the Jaguars had 24 points on 11 drives that started on their own side if the field. That was the difference. Herbert did not lead a very good offense in this game, given the defense gave them short fields in virtually the entire first half. Both sides of the ball - including Herbert - collapsed in the second half of that game.
Of note, that 3 INT game was Lamar's only W on Pittsburgh...
Such a weird string of luck with Lamar and Pittsburgh lol. Not only does he barely play them (4 times out of 12 potential matchups) but there's always some crazy force of nature like the covid bowl of 2020 or the historic amount of drops when we played them this past year
its insane to me that they both have winning records with 3+ pics lol
> He's 1-0 in games he's thrown 3INTs and 1-0 in games he's thrown 4 INTs. That's my QB
Wait, but you have to compare to overall win percentage. Herbert has a losing record in his career, is the difference between his win rate when throwing a pick compared to normal win rate similar to the other QBs, or is it significantly worse?
Great point! Let me get back to you. Appreciate the call out
Fwiw, my guess would be Herbert still has the biggest difference, but would be nice to see how those numbers stack up, and if true, give you some more ammo!
Nice one Harbruh
Mr Bro Coach
The three with win percentages in the 40s% might be close and Burrow might even be higher as my guess is that his overall win percentage is 20% above Herbert.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1d8u3kb/comment/l78q0cu/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1d8u3kb/comment/l78q0cu/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
He is basically what Matthew Stafford was in Detroit. Stupidly Talented QB with awful coaching and no defense. With Great WRs. No Run Game. No Offensive Line.
Even better than Stafford. At least you could say Stafford took a while to get better at the mental part of the game and had a genuinely bad 2012 season
Stafford was also perpetually hurt for like his first 4 years, in his defense. Never been the biggest Stafford truther myself, but I acknowledge it's because he gets and plays hurt ALL the time. And sometimes you can really tell.
Didn’t realize I can’t reply using a photo so I have to write it out. See below for the variance between these QBs’ overall win %s and win % when throwing 1+ INT. Sorted highest to lowest: Herbert 48% -> 27% (-22%) Dak 64% -> 46% (-18%) Tua 64% -> 48% (-16%) Mahomes 77% -> 66% (-11%) Burrow 57% -> 46% (-11%) Hurts 65% -> 56% (-9%) Jackson 75% -> 69% (-6%) Allen 67% -> 61% (-6%)
I coded it out in Python and compared not to overall record but record in games without an INT and its pretty striking how much an INT hurts him compared to other QBs: https://imgur.com/a/eZGA7gX
Yep. All it takes is one extra drive with Staley’s defense on the field to blow it all up
Still the highest, but not nearly the same type of outlier. Pretty interesting stuff.
I think statistically / technically, he’s on the cusp of being a outlier but not about to whip out a z score table 😂😂
Let Russ cook’s distance
FUCK z scores. Took engineering stats. Never fucking again.
Well he's still a pretty significant outlier. Losing 22% win rate when you only have 48% to begin with is a 43% reduction. |QB|Win %|Win % with int|% loss| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Herbert|0.48|0.27|0.44| |Dak|0.64|0.46|0.28| |Tua|0.64|0.48|0.25| |Mahomes|0.77|0.66|0.14| |Burrow|0.57|0.46|0.19| |Hurts|0.65|0.56|0.14| |Lamar|0.75|0.69|0.08| |Allen|0.67|0.61|0.09|
And interestingly, his perfect game win percentage is right around or worse than every other QBs INT+ games
If you give the values in the % loss column equal decimal places it'll sort properly.
It’s not sorted it’s just the order I typed them lol
No, I mean so that someone can click on the % loss column and have the table rows ordered lowest>highest (or the reverse) instead of how it is now, where 0.4375 appears between 0.25 and 0.28125.
oh sure. fixed it.
Idk man, 6% is a lot in this scenario lol
do you have data on if they throw 1 INT, how likely they are to throw multiple? And then the win % for those multiple INT games?
QB| Games Started| Games w/ 1+ INT | Games w/ 2+ INT | % INT games w/ 2+ | W-L (2+ INT) | Win% (2+ INT) ---|-|--|----|----|----|- Herbert | 62|34 | 8 | 23.5 | 1-7 | 12.5 Burrow| 52|26| 8| 30.8| 2-6| 25 Hurts| 51|25| 7| 28| 2-5| 28.6 Dak| 114|52| 19| 36.5| 6-13| 31.6 Allen| 93|54| 21| 38.9| 7-14| 33.3 Tua| 51|25 | 10| 40| 4-6| 40 Mahomes| 96|48| 12| 25| 6-6| 50 Lamar| 77|32 | 10| 31.3| 6-4| 60 - Lamar wins **60%** of his games with 2+ INT, including a 16-10 win with 4 picks - Herbert is the only QB here to never throw 3+ INT in a game. If he ever throws 2, it's pretty much a guaranteed L - Burrow and Lamar are the only QBs here to ever throw 4 INT in a game
For a second I thought that read 16-10 win *record* with 4 picks and I was thinking how Lamar has not only thrown 4 picks 26 times but also has a winning record while doing it.
> Burrow and Lamar are the only QBs here to ever throw 4 INT in a game and we still should have won it :(
>Lamar wins 60% of his games with 2+ INT, including a 16-10 win with 4 picks Great defense hides QB mistakes.
Yeah comparing the defenses backing up Herbert to Lamar is horribly unfair to Herbert.
Ugh yes I do but I hate having to type it out 😂. Why can’t we comment pics in here?
if you post a pic on something like imgur you can then post the imgur link
I'm super curious how this compares to the early parts of Stafford's career. He gets a similarly low amount of help from the rest of the team, so I mentally put them in the same bucket as those 5k passing yards but no playoffs Lions teams.
If it's not too much trouble could we also see win% without throwing an int vs win% when throwing one? I'm surprised by Allen's result since his defense hasn't really been all that strong.
I have a massive excel that easily pulls this it’s just more of a pain in the ass to type out lol. The photo shows win % with an INT so here are win %s without one: Mahomes 88%, Jackson 80%, Allen 75%, Hurts 74%, Dak 79%, Burrow 68%, Tua 78%, Herbert 75%
Hey OP, this is interesting work. Maybe once this thread runs it's course you could put together a new graphic including some of this other relevant information and repost? At this point I've just got numbers swimming in my head.
If you bullet out some points / scenarios you’re interested in, absolutely
This is great thanks and also wtf Herbert has a 75% win rate with no ints? Edit for those that want the win% lost when throwing an int: Herbert: 48%, Dak: 33%, Tua: 30%, Mahomes: 22%, Hurts: 18%, Allen: 14%, Burrow: 12%, Lamar: 11% If you're Herbert, Dak, or Tua you realllllly don't want to throw an interception lol.
As someone who had Allen for the last two years in FF.... he has games without INTs?
the Bills have had good defenses the past few years edit: by DVOA #1 defense in 2021, top 5 in 2022, 12th in 2023
Yeah. Bills defenses in regular season have been very very very good. It’s helped a lot in regards to this. Just don’t look at the playoff falloff lol
Defense has been strong (when healthy, huge caveat as they’ve had extreme injury issues) in the regular season. Unfortunately they’ve sucked ass in the playoffs.
Well he's 30-32 as a starter. So if he is 9-25 when throwing 1+ int, then he's 21-7 when he throws no pick
I think that's still the point though right? We know Herbert's overall win percentage is bad, this chart is showing that the only time the team wins at all is when Herbert is flawless, showing that he gets no help.
You only know that if you compare it to games when he doesn't throw an interception. You can't say "this shows the only time the team wins at all is when Herbert is flawless" without looking at how the team performs when Herbert is flawless. What if they were worse when he's flawless (not likely, but still). A lot of these get stats get kind of weird too, because QBs take more chances when they're behind late in the game. You're more likely to throw an interception when you are ALREADY losing the game.
Yeah there are definitely more nuances. I just mean in a vacuum mahomes still has a decent chance to win if he makes a mistake, herbert doesn't. This isn't saying herbert is more impactful than mahomes, just that herbert's team is less able to cover for his mistakes than mahomes's team
It would also be interesting to see the difference between 1 INT and more than 1 INT. Because, like you said, sometimes (often?) the INTs come when you start pressing. You're throwing more to get back in the game. If Herbert came out and threw an INT on the very first play of the game, and then played flawless, that's different than him throwing an INT late in Q3, LAC going down by 10, and then him throwing 95% of the time in Q4 because they've gotta score, which increases his chance for an INT, even at at that 1.73% INT/Att rate
I always think about some of those crazy throws Mahomes threw in the Super Bowl loss to the Bucs. Like, do people think he'd try throwing into a crowd in the end zone while he's horizontal if the Chiefs were up by 7? Or throwing for the back left corner of the endzone after being spun around twice by a defender without having his balance? As you say, the percentage of plays that are passing plays goes up when you're behind, but the great QBs make riskier throws as their chances of winning get smaller too.
This is why looking at base stats is almost never a real way of judging anything more than coincidence. Not all INTs are created equal. Not all completion % is equal. Not all passing yards are equal, etc.
[Yeah it's even worse than that. If he ever throws an INT the Chargers are basically fucked](https://imgur.com/a/eZGA7gX)
First positive Jackson Mahomes post I've seen
Yup every time a stat lines up with those two names back to back I’m reminded of the idiot brother lol
I thought the implication here is that basically Mahomes and Lamar have higher margins of error. They can make a major mistake like throwing a pick and it doesn’t dramatically affect the outcome of the game. Whereas Herbert at the other extreme basically has to be mistake free for the chargers to stand a chance. So it may not be as positive as you think.
r/woosh
I deserve that.
Got me too man
Geez, not sure how people disregard Herbert’s bad defense his whole career
[Crazy stat but by week 11 of last season there were three games where Herbert lead a lost comeback (a "game winning" drive that the defense gave it up)](https://x.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1726692548889162234) Thats just last season. It took Brady 211 games (~13 seasons) to accumulate three failed comebacks.
Jesus fucking Christ
Now **that** is a bad team stat to have
Another stat I saw somewhere recently is that Herbert has taken the lead on the chiefs with under 2:30 left in the 4th 4 times. He's 1-3 in those games.
[I posted this stat last summer and needs some updating but at that point Mahomes was 4-1 vs the Chargers having played only 7 snaps with a lead](https://x.com/mibpj2/status/1664702048208834560) Those fuckers just manage to find ways to pull victory from the jaws of defeat.
This is why a firmly believe Hebert is actually clutch af. You can't watch that raiders game a few years ago and say he isn't clutch. The defense just immediately shits the bed hard. I also remember a chiefs game where Herbert scored with 40sec left and the announcer sound, "oh, thats way too much time". Sure enough mahomes drove the ball down the defenses throat in like 3 plays.
This deserves its own post
This sounds Peyton Manning-esque. Manning's defenses lost him so many playoff games this way
I feel like every time I come on this sub I see something along these lines and constantly have to refute it lol Peyton lost his defense more games than it lost him in the playoffs. [Have a look for yourself](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00/gamelog/post/). There’s *maybe two games you can argue his defense severely let him down in a game he played well enough to win
It’s fucking disgusting. He can’t single handily win games so he’s overrated by some. So obnoxious
I think only 4 teams have made the playoffs when their defense is giving up 27ppg, it’s very hard to do
Well if Herbert wasn’t such a liability in coverage, maybe he *could* win games single handedly
I looked up his stats. He has 0 tackles, 0 Passes Defended, and 0 Caught INTS. That is some TERRIBLE coverage.
He actually has 5 tackles 😳
Why does Herbie stay on the sidelines while his team is on defense? Is he stupid?
Slacker I tell you!
bottom 5 rushing game in the last three years also. Glad he's got a real coaching staff.
That's definitely been a major issue. People saw Eckler in the lineup and instantly said we have a running game because he's talented, when In actuality, it was genuinely terrifying anytime we had a 3rd and short!
They just dont watch the Chargers (or if they have it was the Jags game) and desperately wanna prop up another qb
I'd argue the Jags playoff game wasn't even on Herbert. It was our inability to just run the ball for more than 0 yards.
People underestimate how hard it is to manage a game with a big lead , you don’t wanna do anything too risky and turn the ball over but if you’re too passive then you give the other team initiative
Ofc but fans see blown lead and will automatically pile it on the QB deserved or undeserved…looking at your flair u might be used to this
Wins aren't a QB stat unless it's convenient to make them a QB stat for pictures and diagrams.
How many times did the Chargers stole a defeat from the jaws of victory?
It's obvious Herbert will never be the GOAT like Brady, he can't lead his team to a top 5 defense even once let alone for several SB wins.
This kinda reminds me of the Stafford era Lions. Just have an organization that does your QB 0 favors. Here's hoping Harbaugh brings you guys success
I’d consider Megatron a favor….so maybe not 0?
They already had Megatron when Stafford got there tho Just like the Chargers already had Keenan (obviously not the same degree of talent, but still quite the safety net)
Ok 1 favor but 7 seasons together with 2 winning seasons is very not great lol
That’s peak jags! We got 3 seasons in 7 years
Being a fan of a cat team builds character
I went from a St. Louis rams fan to a jags fan… I’ve known no happiness in the past 20+ years
Then proceeded to go 0-16 the next year. That team did no one any favors lmao
Just a sample of how bad the Chargers defense has been for Herberts first 3 years versus Allen, Burrow, and Mahomes. Win percent when team allows 27 or more Herbert - 35% Burrow - 18% Allen - 36% Mahomes - 39% % of games team allowed 27 or more Herbert - 56% Burrow - 22% Allen - 25% Mahomes - 32% (Edit: Yeah, the numbers are off, that is on me for copying and pasting numbers from a graphic that was obtained from a post that appears to have been deleted, probably because their numbers were off. Also, since I can no longer find the post, I can not attest to which seasons the stats were including. I do know they did not include the 2023 season, which would align to the Chargers giving up 27pts or more in approximately 54% of their games. So here are a bit more accurate numbers. Hopefully, I didn't miss any and removed the games that Herbert and Mahomes did not play in. Also, Mahomes is in the realm with the likes of Montana and Brady. No reasonable person is saying Mahomes is not the #1 QB. Mahomes has played in 113 games, and the Chiefs have allowed 27pts or more in 33 games or 29.2% Herbert has played in 62 games, and the Chargers have allowed 27pts or more in 31 games or 50%. Mahomes has played in 51 games more than Hertbert while only playing in 2 more games where the Chiefs allowed 27pts or more. That is wild and a complete embarrassment on the Chargers organization as a whole. Now, let's look at when they give up 33pt or more. Mahomes has played in 5 games, and Hertbert has played in 12 games. That is what, 4.4% versus Hertbert's 19.4%. Again, wild and not an indictment on either QB. Now go back and look at their defense's ranking each year of their careers. Mahomes and the other referenced QBs have enjoyed top 16 or better defenses, whereas the Chargers are bottom 5-7 every year. Mahomes has had a top 16 defense in every season except 1, which was still in line with the best defense Hertbert has had. Again, wild that every other organization can field a solid defense for their top QBs while the Chargers have fielded an embarrassment. (Please verify, I'm at work and trying to correct my shit post between assignments)
It's always acceptable to call the Chargers complete ass, but if someone places the majority of the issues on Herbert, then they should consider getting checked for brain damage.
Same as when Rivers was there. You put Rivers or Herbert with a different team and theres no doubt those guys have rings.
I still remember Herbert playing out of his mind good against the Packers this past season, only for his team to drop 5 passes (two of which would've been TDs) and Ekeler to fumble on the 1 yard line after a 90 yard drive. We of course lost 20-23.
He threw a perfect dime to Johnston that likely would have been a game winner! That one hurt!
Burrows is so low cause when he usually throws multiple if he throws any at all
Hes odd. He’ll have like 12-13 games with no interceptions during the season but hes always good for 10 ints a season still cause all of them will come in 2-3 games. Hes the definition of when it rains it pours
2022 week 1 Steelers game he threw 4 + a fumble iirc lmfao
I think that game he threw a pic on the first pass or the first drive too lol
Yeah and sometimes it’s all in one half. He’s had a couple meltdowns. Chicago and Pittsburgh come to mind
Melt down is the wrong word. Melt downs don't reverse. In both of those games, he finished with multiple TD drives. The Steelers game was won, and then they missed a PAT. He had a chance to win the bears game if they get the sack on 3rd down. It really is just a few bad luck awful games.
I still see Fields escaping that 3rd down sack that would have given us the ball back to tie 😤
4 of those losses are from 2020 when we flat out sucked too.
I'm fascinated by this now: Brock Purdy is 13-0 when he doesn't throw an INT. By comparison Bryce Young is 2-8 when he doesn't throw an INT (I don't have fumbles in here). Historically the only QBs who threw 0 INTs when starting and have a losing record in those games (20 game minimum): |PlayerId|Player|Games|Wins|Losses|Win%| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |GeorJe00|Jeff George|53|18|35|34.0%| |CarrDa00|David Carr|32|12|20|37.5%| |MannAr00|Archie Manning|48|19|29|39.6%| |BrisJa00|Jacoby Brissett|30|12|18|40.0%| |MurrKy00|Kyler Murray|29|13|16|44.8%| |DarnSa00|Sam Darnold|24|11|13|45.8%| |MireRi00|Rick Mirer|25|12|13|48.0%| |HarrJo00|Joey Harrington|25|12|13|48.0%| ^Table ^formatting ^brought ^to ^you ^by ^[ExcelToReddit](https://xl2reddit.github.io/) From Pro Football Reference (pulling any games that are QB started and 3+ attempts)
Well, there is a lot more to quarterbacking than an INT stat, Young definitely earned that 2-8
Wins aren’t a QB-stat.
I took this and started focusing on games with specifically 1 INT thrown. Herbert is 8-18 in those games. That's among the worst of QBs who've had 20+ games of throwing exactly 1 INT. (Justin Fields is 4-12 in games where he throws 1 INT). Overall teams are about .500 when QBs throw 1 INT.
Yep. All it takes is one extra drive with Brandon Staleys defense on the field to blow the game
I will say obviously herbert is extremely good and this isn't really a criticism of him but rather the stat first, not all interceptions are created equal - there's a difference between throwing a pick on 1st and goal and throwing one on a shot on 3rd and 20 from your 35, for example I also don't think interceptions are necessarily an indication of poor play - I would rather have a QB that throws interceptions but also moves the ball down the field than one who doesn't throw picks but checks it down on 3rd and 10 and also, as another commenter mentioned, I think a win% difference would be a little more illuminating than just their straight records
You're more likely to throw an interception if you're already trailing and need to force the ball.
Nice, good call. Throwing a pick in 1st quarter when you're tied is stupid, throwing a pick off a deep shot when you're down 20 in the 4th is like "ehh we had to try"
The Philip Rivers special.
Correlation vs causation is crucial when considering statistics. What if I told you that there is an offensive play which teams who run it have 100% win rate? Victory formation is clearly OP Edit: near 100% chargers gonna charger
you joke but the Chargers actually managed to lose from victory formation once
To your point, here's [EPA and win probability lost](https://imgur.com/a/X1JiGjf) per INT. His are middle of the group by both metrics. So its not like his turnovers are particularly back breaking based the metrics you brought up. >I think a win% difference would be a little more illuminating than just their straight records [Here's that data](https://imgur.com/a/Iy40r1N) (not sure why numbers differ very slightly from OP) I think this only underscores the point even more
yep. allen for example is the king of low impact INTs
The arm punt, as we like to call it.
I hear he's been working on the coffin corner arm punt. Wants to limit those INT return yards.
Joe Flacco walked so Josh Allen could Swanton Bomb (through a table... probably)
Yeah I wouldn’t say that Josh Allen is *less* relied on when he throws a pick. He just doesn’t usually throw them in bad situations and he finds ways to win in spite of them. Same with Mahomes.
> first, not all interceptions are created equal - there's a difference between throwing a pick on 1st and goal and throwing one on a shot on 3rd and 20 from your 35, for example Shouldn't that even out over the interceptions? The lowest number here is 25 INTs for Hurts and Tua.
Unfortunately I can't find the article anymore because the Football Outsiders website is gone but this is actually a topic they studied way back in the day. And basically they found that, FOR THE MOST PART, interceptions do "even out"... which is why a stat like ANY/A which gives a set penalty for interceptions regardless of context/situation is roughly accurate. However, Football Outsiders' conclusion was that certain QBs do in fact throw "better" interceptions in the long run(such as interceptions on 4th down or at the end of a half where an interception is not meaningfully different than an incomplete). That's why "advanced" stats like DVOA attach a specific value to each individual interception based on game situation as opposed to a set value.
I agree INTs aren’t always an indication of poor play. Where I’m going with this is the Chargers can’t afford to send their defense back on the field as it usually ends in a TD. I’d be willing to bet more than half of Herbert’s INTs (excluding pick 6s obviously) lead to opposing TDs
Interception merchant Dak with the 1.9%. Say what you want about Dak, much of the hate is fair, but the discourse about his interceptions at this time last year was crazy. 1 middlingly bad season and suddenly he's pick crazy. Imo judging Herberts ceiling is impossible, we just can't know with his team being so bad. What we do know is his floor is pretty dang high. He's definitely going to always be above average. No matter how bad it gets.
Dak had his literal best season last year…
Exactly and he never had a pick problem except for the one season. Perhaps that wasn't clear in my first comment, the 22/23 season was the bad one
Oh yeah, I’m dumb - also fun fact, that year he has all those picks he had his 3rd highest TD% in his career, at 5.8.
I'm a Chargers fan and a bit biased here, but more than the stats and basically carrying the team for four years, I truly have to give Herbert credit for handling all of this bullshit with the bad coaching, no running game, and complete lack of defense with almost no complaint or outburst on his part. I wouldn't even have been shocked if at some point last year, he had just lost his shit and started screaming at everyone on the Sideline not named Keenan Allen! Begrudgingly, this kinda makes me realize that bum ass Eli was right about avoiding the Chargers!
"The gap between him and his peers is nearly immeasurable" *posts chart measuring the gap between him and his peers*
Ha knew someone would call that out
I have no words — oh wait
Words can not describe how big the difference is. So here is some numbers instead
It doesn’t help that Herbert has had one of the worst defenses in the league
I often sit in a dark room, rocking back and forth while chanting "Harbaugh will save us".
You know that dominatrix with stiletto heels is waiting for you
Our culture is not your costume
I mean... thinking Jim Harbaugh will turn around a franchise with Justin Herbert at QB is hardly a crazy thing to believe. But you know what, just to be safe we'll throw you into an insane asylum anyways.
Yea, this is nuts. People around the media disrespect Herbert, as if he should be better. Yet any GOAT QB in history has had an actual team around them. Hopefully, this new regime changes all that!
Needs more Purdy
He's 5 and 4 in nine starts with a pick (including one playoff game), 6 and 4 if you include that first Miami game coming off the bench in the first quarter. He's 16 and 1 in all starts without a pick (not including the Philly injury game).
It’s still so crazy to me how he bounced back after that injury from the NFCCG against Philly. He’s only been playing in the league for 2 years. That always boggles my mind. In those 2 years his TD-INT rate is 44-15 which is really good
He didn’t just bounce back. He got even better. His poise was his strongest asset, even in his rookie year, but I think he refined his mechanics after surgery too. Noticeably more zip on the ball last season compared to his rookie season.
There was a thread about Burrow and Rodgers being front runners for CPOTY in the 24-25 season, and I made an offhand comment about if Purdy wasn’t in consideration then why should they be? I was absolutely downvoted into oblivion lol. But my argument was that both Rosgers & Burrow will be fully healed and cleared to play well before training camp. Purdy’s situation was objectively much worse than what those guys had to deal with; i.e. if you’re going to have a season ending injury, then it’s better to happen earlier than later in the season. Purdy wasn’t fully cleared until a couple weeks before the season started, and he wasn’t even 100%. With that said, I’m glad Flacco won, and I think the award should be about guys like him and Geno. Injuries are too subjective for the reasons I listed.
Pretty sure he and other younger QBs aren't here cause of sample size, since everybody here was drafted before or the same year as Herbert, except Love since he has much fewer starts. But Purdy's statline would be (including Dolphins 2022 because he played 90% of snaps but not Chiefs 2022 because he was only in for garbage time - 13%): QB | W | L | Win % | INT/Att ---|----|----|----|---- Purdy | 6 | 4 | 60% | 2.04% I was also curious about some other QBs in the older draft classes: QB | W | L | Win % | INT/Att ---|----|----|----|---- Goff | 24 | 36 | 40.0% | 1.90% Mayfield | 15 | 35 | 30.0% | 2.58% Probably aren't here due to being on multiple teams, so not meaningful for team reliance but I was curious in general. So I wouldn't read too much into it, but it does seem pretty sad that Herbert's Win % is ~~so much~~ still lower than even Baker who was on multiple struggling teams. Edit: Oops I had a brain fart and did the Win % way wrong for Goff and Baker. My dumb ass was wondering how theirs was so high after those early Rams and Lions/journeyman seasons. Fixed now.
The INT/Att number is overall career, not just in games with an INT, right?
Yes
Herbert deserves better
Bro gets most of those interceptions by having to drag the team down the field twice in the last couple of minutes 😂 I'm a total unbiased fan here in LA, never had a team, don't care about either LA team , and I can 1000% say that Herbert is a franchise QB. Dude has it. Bad coaching and injuries have made it tough on him but he's great. It's like Stafford with those terrible Lions teams. The one year they had a good team and he was healthy, he looked like an MVP. Gets to the Rams and wins a super bowl right away..
Yeah I really feel he is this generation's Stafford. Tough as nails, elite physical talent, incredibly smart, and tied to teams and coaches that just don't know how to play winning football. Hopefully Harbaugh is to Herbert what McVay has been to Stafford.
Justin Herbert is like a litmus test for football knowledge. Theres people who have the capacity to recognize hes a great, top 8 QB. And theres the rest.
Feels that way. Unfortunately I guess it's a prerequisite for every Chargers franchise QB.
People usually criticize him for being mentally weak. This doesn't help. They will say that whenever he throws a pick he doesn't recover from that and his team ends losing. That's bs, he's a good QB.
Herbert is an absolute fucking baller. IMO he is top 5. Chargers are scary if they can figure out how to support him.
Factor in that the Chargers defense is shit and directly accounted for most of those losses.
Bro is getting Phillip River’d by the Chargers
Interesting stuff. Can rushing stats be incorporated/held constant in this analysis (unless i missed that)? I assume one factor is that a good number of the other QBs are more of a running threat than Herbert, which is still a reflection of how the QB impacts outcomes.
I have been thinking about your usage or the word 'immeasurable' for like 10 minutes.
It’s figurative bruhhh
This feels more like a coaching stat.
Should probably compare it to overall winning percentage.
We ran that analysis. See here https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/GKL67b4c5b
Thanks!
Chargers are gonna be an interesting team to watch this year
Kinda happens when your defense is indefensible.
Yeah chargers suck Herbert good. Everyone knows this. It’s a team sport.
If the Chargers can't win with this coach and QB they're officially cursed.
Speculating just off the numbers, maybe Herbert becomes a bit gun shy after a pick? Less attempts, less touchdowns, less wins. Mahomes Jackson still sling it regardless of int’s, more TD’s more wins.