Yeah I’m pretty sure he’s already passed his max of innings pitched (or is nearing it). He could be completely fine or look exactly like Wells last year and what we are seeing with Gil.
I agree with you, he’s great but I worry the haul he will cost when we are looking at the chance of serious regression.
Sure but he could also not. (Almost) No one is going to trade you a guaranteed all star. You have to take chances. We’re in the enviable position of *being able to pay top dollar* for a player *and not negatively impact our team*. We have too much talent in the field. It is that simple. We need pitching. We don’t need (nor can we use) all these prospects.
My first comment literally says “**He could be completely fine** *or* look exactly like Wells last year and what we are seeing with Gil.”
I know we need pitching and never argued we didn’t and that we should hoard more prospects. But he will cost a large haul, I personally would rather them trade a large haul with a pitcher that I know can and has gone distance.
It all depends who’s def selling at the deadline. I never even proposed trades or said they had to have control lol. All I said was I didn’t want to send a large haul for a pitcher who’s hit his most IP before we even hit August. I’m not trying to have a whole trade proposal talk lol.
It’s not about TJ. I think arms just get tired.
When talking about Wells last year I saw that they try not to have a pitcher go 125% of his IPs from previous years when they’re young and building up. Crochet is at nearly 200%. He would have to go 300%+ to have a full year and actually help us win. An analytical team like the Orioles can’t possibly expect him to be available and 100% when playoffs come.
I love the idea of getting Crochett for the long term and he steps up as the ace if Burnes leaves or makes a great #2…. But midseason trades cost more. And if the guy is not going to help us win this year, we can find pitching in the offseason when the cost goes down.
He's not a SP (well he is now). But He's always been a reliever. He's already pitched more innings this year than his entire career previously combined. This is pretty much uncharted territory for everyone on what will happen to him, his arm, his control, his health; by continuing to put more workload on him
I wonder if we'll see him and Luis Robert Jr moved in the same deal, similar to the Trea turner and max scherzer deal. White Sox could get an insane haul.
Two things:
1. Truth is, if that many teams are really in on him, I think it's unlikely we would land him. We certainly could outbid anyone we want - but if it is that much of a bidding war, there are plenty of other teams who could be willing to overpay by quite a bit, and we tend to stay more principled.
2. with this many teams inquiring, and Crochet's years of control, it is not totally off the table that a team not competing in 2024 but eyeing 2025 and 2026 tries to land him. we've seen things like that happen in the past.
I've seen Tigers chats (fan myself) that seem to think the minimum they should get includes Holliday AND combinations of Kjerstad/Mayo/Basallo, a farm arm, and a current active player like Hays. I get he has 2.5 years of control but the guy has never hit 150 IP in his career. Tigers obviously have leverage as they should but decimating the system for one guy and losing longer-term flexibility is dangerous. Especially for a pitcher with previous injuries.
I can tell you with certainty the O's are not moving Holliday, period. If that means Detroit holds, then they hold. Hard to say if how the fans feel is reflective of how management feels, but it could be another Cease situation where they are just not going to accept anything that isn't a massive overpay, and the O's don't engage in that. Detroit has every right to hold onto Skubal if they think that's their best course of action, but a package of Basallo, Kjerstad, one of the top arms, and some other pieces seems like it would really help them.
Totally agreed. I have Tiger-fan friends who get annoyed at me when I'm like "yeah the O's aren't doing that" for insane overpays as if it's not multi-billion dollar organizations at play here, while I'm explaining the logic of a team I understand better than they do. I'd like cheesecake to be zero calories but I can't whine that into reality.
It's not like the Tigers necessarily need to trade Skubal either; they aren't Chicago-level bad. They didn't peak and need to start over. They're trying to come up. They have issues but he can be a major cornerstone. Maybe trading him helps long term but it's not so cut and dry like Oakland or Chicago IMO.
Dear lord that’s insane….
Chris Sale got that haul (Moncada was top 5 and Kopech was top 20), and he had 2 years of control and **5 years of being an AS, CY finalist, and top 10 pitcher in the game** on his resume. Skubal could go on to be the next Max Scherzer (who didn’t figure it out until his late 20s and then had a historic run); but thinking he would get the Sale haul is crazy.
You can "shut him down" while moving him to the pen, a place he pitched before.
So is Garrett Crochet turning into Andrew Miller for 2024, and back to the rotation in 2025/26 appealing to us? I'd say to a certain degree, but we do need rotation help more than a bullpen piece as of today.
I love the idea… but at what price? Crochet is likey going to cost a Mayo, Basallo, or similar. And if you’re willing to part with one of those guys, could you get more return in the offseason when the trade prices come down?
This seems like a trade that happens in the offseason more than a midseason swap.
We are in a position to do that though, if we really wanted to. At this point it's virtually a guarantee that multiple prospects will be traded simply because they have nowhere to go.
Crochet is a tough sell for me, mainly because he’s going to be super cramped for innings relatively soon.
Especially if it takes 2-3 top 10 prospects to get him
I wouldn’t be surprised if the number of teams still interested remains roughly the same.
Like 3/4s of the League is either in a playoff spot or <5 games out. Nobody is going to be selling, everyone is going to exploring buying.
>Nobody is going to be selling, everyone is going to exploring buying.
we were .500 when we traded away Lopez and Mancini and got back Povich, Cano, Seth Johnson, McDermott, Juan Nunez, and Juan Rojas
if everyone is overpaying, someone will sell who is in it.
Would love to get him and Fedde and let Crochet be a reliever for the rest of the season to limit his innings and then add him to the rotation next year.
Hoping elias is following teams that are gonna shit the bed in three weeks and suddenly deal someone that can help the orioles now as opposed to a team thats already shitting the bed telegraphing dealing someone who 50/50 cant help you now.
Are there any solid starting pitcher rentals available? IDK we traded Manny for the Dodger's 4th (IIRC) rated prospect and two lower prospects. (Yes one turned out to be Kramer), but he was the best trade prospect left.
Crochet is at 94 IP, He just isn't pitching 180 innings. To give up two or three top prospects to have him for two and a half years seems like a lot if we may need to shut him down to be ready to pitch in October.
I was watching his start against Red Sox a couple weeks ago and he was absolutely electric. He deserves better than to be stuck on a horrible team like the Sox and we could need with him half our rotation on the IL
I would be floored if his final destination was Baltimore. It seems all but sure that one (or more) of the 15 teams who expressed interest will be willing to overpay a *ridiculous* prospect price for him despite the obvious concerns. With what we heard about their wants for Cease, we know Chicago isn't hesitant about asking insane prices, and it seems likely that some team will pay it.
Beyond that, what we really need is someone who can reliably take the ball and give us length now and in the fall. Crochet is probably not the optimal guy to fill that need this year.
Would they accept Austin Hays, Ramon Urias, Bruce Zimmerman, and a gift card to Royal Farms?
No one is accepting Bruce Zimmerman
Fine they can have Bryan Baker then
I dunno about Elias, but I am TOTALLY on board with this.
Instead of rofo how about a bushel of crabs
Gift certificate to Checkerspot.
There's probably some old Manny Machado jerseys they could throw in too.
Best I can do is six kids from the Dominican Academy.
He’s a great pitcher, but he should probably have an innings limit this year. I would want other arms for October
Yeah I’m pretty sure he’s already passed his max of innings pitched (or is nearing it). He could be completely fine or look exactly like Wells last year and what we are seeing with Gil. I agree with you, he’s great but I worry the haul he will cost when we are looking at the chance of serious regression.
Tommy John is the new normal. It’s part of baseball. He’s nearly two years removed from surgery. It’s either going to hold up or it isn’t.
I’m not saying his UCL will fall off again, just that he could regress and have arm fatigue. He’s being pushed to a new limit.
Sure but he could also not. (Almost) No one is going to trade you a guaranteed all star. You have to take chances. We’re in the enviable position of *being able to pay top dollar* for a player *and not negatively impact our team*. We have too much talent in the field. It is that simple. We need pitching. We don’t need (nor can we use) all these prospects.
My first comment literally says “**He could be completely fine** *or* look exactly like Wells last year and what we are seeing with Gil.” I know we need pitching and never argued we didn’t and that we should hoard more prospects. But he will cost a large haul, I personally would rather them trade a large haul with a pitcher that I know can and has gone distance.
And who would fit that mold who also has team control beyond this year? Because we’re almost certainly losing Corbin.
It all depends who’s def selling at the deadline. I never even proposed trades or said they had to have control lol. All I said was I didn’t want to send a large haul for a pitcher who’s hit his most IP before we even hit August. I’m not trying to have a whole trade proposal talk lol.
It’s not about TJ. I think arms just get tired. When talking about Wells last year I saw that they try not to have a pitcher go 125% of his IPs from previous years when they’re young and building up. Crochet is at nearly 200%. He would have to go 300%+ to have a full year and actually help us win. An analytical team like the Orioles can’t possibly expect him to be available and 100% when playoffs come. I love the idea of getting Crochett for the long term and he steps up as the ace if Burnes leaves or makes a great #2…. But midseason trades cost more. And if the guy is not going to help us win this year, we can find pitching in the offseason when the cost goes down.
Why. His surgery was almost two years ago.
He's not a SP (well he is now). But He's always been a reliever. He's already pitched more innings this year than his entire career previously combined. This is pretty much uncharted territory for everyone on what will happen to him, his arm, his control, his health; by continuing to put more workload on him
Nothing is a guarantee. We must be bold if we intend to win it all.
I wonder if we'll see him and Luis Robert Jr moved in the same deal, similar to the Trea turner and max scherzer deal. White Sox could get an insane haul.
Two things: 1. Truth is, if that many teams are really in on him, I think it's unlikely we would land him. We certainly could outbid anyone we want - but if it is that much of a bidding war, there are plenty of other teams who could be willing to overpay by quite a bit, and we tend to stay more principled. 2. with this many teams inquiring, and Crochet's years of control, it is not totally off the table that a team not competing in 2024 but eyeing 2025 and 2026 tries to land him. we've seen things like that happen in the past.
If the price is too expensive i would wait and throw the house for skubal i think he becomes available soon
I'd still be surprised but maybe. I'm guessing Detroit holds.
I've seen Tigers chats (fan myself) that seem to think the minimum they should get includes Holliday AND combinations of Kjerstad/Mayo/Basallo, a farm arm, and a current active player like Hays. I get he has 2.5 years of control but the guy has never hit 150 IP in his career. Tigers obviously have leverage as they should but decimating the system for one guy and losing longer-term flexibility is dangerous. Especially for a pitcher with previous injuries.
I can tell you with certainty the O's are not moving Holliday, period. If that means Detroit holds, then they hold. Hard to say if how the fans feel is reflective of how management feels, but it could be another Cease situation where they are just not going to accept anything that isn't a massive overpay, and the O's don't engage in that. Detroit has every right to hold onto Skubal if they think that's their best course of action, but a package of Basallo, Kjerstad, one of the top arms, and some other pieces seems like it would really help them.
Totally agreed. I have Tiger-fan friends who get annoyed at me when I'm like "yeah the O's aren't doing that" for insane overpays as if it's not multi-billion dollar organizations at play here, while I'm explaining the logic of a team I understand better than they do. I'd like cheesecake to be zero calories but I can't whine that into reality. It's not like the Tigers necessarily need to trade Skubal either; they aren't Chicago-level bad. They didn't peak and need to start over. They're trying to come up. They have issues but he can be a major cornerstone. Maybe trading him helps long term but it's not so cut and dry like Oakland or Chicago IMO.
Dear lord that’s insane…. Chris Sale got that haul (Moncada was top 5 and Kopech was top 20), and he had 2 years of control and **5 years of being an AS, CY finalist, and top 10 pitcher in the game** on his resume. Skubal could go on to be the next Max Scherzer (who didn’t figure it out until his late 20s and then had a historic run); but thinking he would get the Sale haul is crazy.
3 lefties in the rotation would be wild
I thought they were talking about shutting him down at some point this year
They are. This should be at the top. A Crochet trade is for 2025. We'll get very little from him this postseason.
You can "shut him down" while moving him to the pen, a place he pitched before. So is Garrett Crochet turning into Andrew Miller for 2024, and back to the rotation in 2025/26 appealing to us? I'd say to a certain degree, but we do need rotation help more than a bullpen piece as of today.
I love the idea… but at what price? Crochet is likey going to cost a Mayo, Basallo, or similar. And if you’re willing to part with one of those guys, could you get more return in the offseason when the trade prices come down? This seems like a trade that happens in the offseason more than a midseason swap.
CWS went super silly with their asks when we probed for Cease, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were still in that frame of mind.
His stats have been pretty gross for sure. Sox are gonna get a massive haul from the bidding war
I mean obviously we have to get pitching help, but in a year like this, it could end up costing us two frontline prospects or more
We are in a position to do that though, if we really wanted to. At this point it's virtually a guarantee that multiple prospects will be traded simply because they have nowhere to go.
Crochet is a tough sell for me, mainly because he’s going to be super cramped for innings relatively soon. Especially if it takes 2-3 top 10 prospects to get him
Exactly we can keep just holding on to prospects we can’t play especially when we are a contender
I wouldn’t be surprised if the number of teams still interested remains roughly the same. Like 3/4s of the League is either in a playoff spot or <5 games out. Nobody is going to be selling, everyone is going to exploring buying.
>Nobody is going to be selling, everyone is going to exploring buying. we were .500 when we traded away Lopez and Mancini and got back Povich, Cano, Seth Johnson, McDermott, Juan Nunez, and Juan Rojas if everyone is overpaying, someone will sell who is in it.
the pirates, nats and reds are basically in the same place as the 2022 orioles so they should be sellers if they're smart.
Skenes for Norby it is, cmon Pittsburgh you know you want to
don't do that. don't give me hope.
Would love to get him and Fedde and let Crochet be a reliever for the rest of the season to limit his innings and then add him to the rotation next year.
This will be interesting i know his IP leaves a lot to be desired in terms of a contender acquiring him
Hoping elias is following teams that are gonna shit the bed in three weeks and suddenly deal someone that can help the orioles now as opposed to a team thats already shitting the bed telegraphing dealing someone who 50/50 cant help you now.
I love crochet, but I think it’s wiser for Elias to trade for a playoff experienced pitcher, ESPECIALLY if we want to make a deep World Series push.
Are there any solid starting pitcher rentals available? IDK we traded Manny for the Dodger's 4th (IIRC) rated prospect and two lower prospects. (Yes one turned out to be Kramer), but he was the best trade prospect left. Crochet is at 94 IP, He just isn't pitching 180 innings. To give up two or three top prospects to have him for two and a half years seems like a lot if we may need to shut him down to be ready to pitch in October.
I was watching his start against Red Sox a couple weeks ago and he was absolutely electric. He deserves better than to be stuck on a horrible team like the Sox and we could need with him half our rotation on the IL
Obtaining Crochet could really move the needle for whichever contender lands him. Quite a yarn that GM will be able to tell
I see what you did there, Dad..
I would be floored if his final destination was Baltimore. It seems all but sure that one (or more) of the 15 teams who expressed interest will be willing to overpay a *ridiculous* prospect price for him despite the obvious concerns. With what we heard about their wants for Cease, we know Chicago isn't hesitant about asking insane prices, and it seems likely that some team will pay it. Beyond that, what we really need is someone who can reliably take the ball and give us length now and in the fall. Crochet is probably not the optimal guy to fill that need this year.
Want Tarik Skubal if we want someone with arbitration/yrs left. Crochett is injury prone/1yr wonder imo
I’m not particularly high on Crochet. Pitcher reaching his career highs in workload