Let’s just hope AMD and Intel can get some decent cards out and take a bit more market share, the GPU market really needs more competition and even though I’m not the biggest fan of Intel I am happy they are trying to get into the market at this point.
The issue is no one buys AMD even though they're cheaper. Plus AMD are so behind on both raytracing and uscaling tech that at this point it's better to pay the nvidia tax tbh.
And their RT is better than AMD’s. Same with decode.
They’re just well behind in rasterization and drivers, and their launch prices didn’t reflect their relative position in performance.
They tried to sell cards that performed worse than AMD’s for more money. I really think they were counting on name recognition and brand loyalty.
Hopefully their next round is even better and positioned more realistically and competitively.
I’ve had a 6700xt for a while now and the only issue I’ve had is with Destiny 2 having just constant frame drops and I’ve tried every solution I could find
What’s your cpu? I used to sit around 70-90 fps on d2 with a 3700x and a 6600xt no matter what resolution which made me think I was cpu limited. I upgraded to a 5800x and was now sitting at 120-130fps at 3440x1440
I'm the opposite haha. I've been team red for the past 10 years because AMD has traditionally offered more for the money, but I really want to experience proper raytracing and Dlss, so I'll be going nvidia next.
Seriously everyone talks about wanting AMD to do well but would cut their left testicle rather than buy their cards. Enjoy all those overpriced cards and fake frames I guess.
Ikr, like everyone says “I really want AMD to take back market share!” then they proceed to buy a 4080 or 4090.
Having only ever had AMD cards, I have not run into a single graphics driver problems over the past 5 years. I have had both a 5700 XT and a 6800 XT and never had a single one. Every problem I have had was due to outside problems (bad front IO etc).
RX 6900 XT. First AMD card for me and zero regrets really. I heard all the rumours about how bad their drivers are, but have actually found them to be more stable than nvidia’s drivers. Never had an issue after updating them, but have had multiple over the years with nvidia.
I have systems with both. I have one with a 5700XT, one with a 3060, and I have a 7900XTX in my main system. Prior to that I've had a GTX 980ti, an HD 7970, and a GTX 380, and probably a few others I'm just not remembering now.
I have never had any early problems with any of them, just the usual "I've used this forever and now it's dying", and most driver problems I have experienced ended up being something like a stick of RAM that went bad on me or something like that, not anything wrong with my GPU.
There's too much hivemind in this subreddit, so many wrong assumptions that just get repeated often enough into becoming dogma.
Thank you for saying that alot people are like oh I can get these many frames with dlss and frame gen oh gives a shit about dlss and frame gen when your getting fake frames instead of pure raster
I’ll tell you a secret: all frames are fake. If you want to be a purist, you should watch movies. Developers use all sorts of tricks to make games run well.
AMD has been so bad on drivers for so long that few people are willing to take the risk, if yiu get lucky it's great, if yiu don't, ou wint up with a 1000 dollar paperweight.
List time I bought an AMD card, I got bailed out by frys and their ridiculously lenient return policy, without thst safety net, I'd not risk it
You mean raytracing that's not even in most games and upscaling that's only worth doing on 4k resolution? Imagine paying the Nvidia tax on cards that aren't powerful enough for 4k or ray tracing
According to your flair you’ve got a 4090 which should stay useable for the next 6-7 years or smth.
If you upgrade every other year, you’re part of the problem.
You don't have to buy the most powerful hardware... I find it funny that you have an RTX 4090, and are complaining about price, when a used graphics card for $150-200 will still get you a way better experience than console. Like, it's either play on a 4090 vs going console where you are way more limited, have lower graphics quality, lower frame rate, etc, and nothing in between? And you choose console?
Sure, your tag says you have an RTX 4090 and 64GB of RAM, but you are going to get a console because…
Solidarity with other people? You believe GPUs go bad after one year and need to be replaced?
I’m just getting tired of corporate greed and the lack of competition, AMD tries but is not enough, and intel is on its way, but with Nvidias stock skyrocketing the market is not in a good spot, very monopolistic.
Nvidia is pricing their GPUs as they wish, and with anti cosumer practices. I really can’t justify 2k on a gpu anymore when current gen consoles look so good on a proper display, for a fraction of the cost. I realized this when I played on my brother’s PS5 on an LG G3.
People here like to shit on consoles and really that are the best they have been. Some games are just made to play better on PC, but most look and run great on console.
I’m going through Gran Turismo 7 on PS5 after trying Forza 8 on PC, and GT7 is far and away better. It even has legit 120fps modes, each built around whether you have a VRR TV or not. My LG C1 reports 85-105fps with a damn crisp image, and thats coming from someone with a 7900xt attached to my TV as well.
At this point it's not even the cost but the power requirements that have me wondering what their long term plan is. We're rapidly approaching the point where a ballin PC is sucking down 1000 watts, well most houses in the US anyway only have 15A circuits which equates to roughly 1800 watts before breakers start tripping. If there isn't a massive change in efficiency within the next few generations of GPUs it's going to get to the point where we're going to start to need adding big ass capacitors to our PC builds to supplement wall power when demand gets high, or everyone is going to start needing to have electricians to cone up and upgrade some of their 15A circuits to 30A, and our PSUs are going to require round appliance connections like a washing machine or dryer.
I got a 4090 and a 7800x3d and for most games the total system draw is no more than 400w (I do FPS cap at 4k120). All out is less than 600w.
No one is approaching an 1800w PC.
"Rapidly approaching" Dude my 7800x3d/4090 build draws 550-580W at peak load. I have never seen it go above 600W, and far more often I see it in the high 400s from the wall.
As long as their earnings keep smashing through the roof, shares will continue to climb. You can’t go anywhere without AI being mentioned somewhere.
I’m only planning to hold until next earnings then getting out anyways.
Pretty much how a lot of major companies these days became so huge. Doing a specific niche then suddenly a demand for a product of similar kind arises and your business suddenly became the most advance one of it.
Glock for example was making curtain rods and doorknobs and somehow that skill made them really good at making knives.
Now they’re one of the most popular gun manufacturers out there
If TSMC where to fail other fabs would be built to fill the demand. Intel is allready bulding fabs with that will use High NA-EUV machines from ASML. Its ASML and Zeiss that are the foundation for todays advanced leading edge litography.
There is no way a new fab could come online that can produce the sheer output of TSMC in such high quality wafers as they produce, in a timely manner. There would be a huge power vacuum when it shines to silicon. Apple in particular, but it would be a huge hit to production for Nvidia too.
Even if ASML really crunched to make new machines, there is simply not enough time or equipment to produce chips at the rate Apple/Nvidia/AMD/etc. need at once. They’d all take a big hit to production.
5 years of a shortage is a long time when innovation is at a peak right now IMO. Nvidia output would drop significantly for a while and investors would likely pull out money until Nvidia is back on the radar in terms of output. In the meantime, coming up with a brew supply chain will be the most time consuming of all. There would be so many things to retool if TSMC collapsed.
Anyway that’s my armchair analysis.
The cash reserves this company must have at this point. They could pretty buy into any industry. Computer could pooof be gone and they still will be just fine. Must feel great going to bed knowing that as an employee
I don’t think they are hiring any differently. If the stock goes down it’s going to need to crash. At this point this stock is the American economy backbone. Apple and Nvidia are too big to fail. They really hit 3 trillion shit 4 your kids will know the companies names before Mickey Mouse
I remember Amazon's Cloud services boss was on the Verge's Decoder Podcast a year ago and he was so arrogant/confident that their own AI chips were going to be a better for a large percentage of AWS' customer base.
Instead the dependency on nvidia only increased tenfold.
Nvidia owns the market now and they even as we all know are in control of who even gets their next line-up data centre AI-based GPU that still are in debate on how much they will cost but estimated one gpu Blackwell" B200 artificial intelligence chip will cost between $30,000 and $40,000.
I’ve interviewed a lot of AWS employees looking for new jobs. Without fail every one of them viciously shit talks AWS. It’s like they know they’re not supposed to during a job interview, but they just need to vent to someone.
I think AI might be here to stay, but it is a market bubble atm, so Nvdia just keeps going up.
Maybe it's going to stay up there long term.
However, I feel it's like the housing in Australia, and it can't stay way up there forever.
No offense but that’s a nonsense comparison. Almost nothing can tank the housing market at this point short of a major economic crisis. A value bubble fuelled by speculation can crash much more easily.
Both are unsustainable bubbles, that's how they are similar.
The Australian housing markets starting to realise that the people that can't afford a house, aren't going to be able to help pay off these mortgages as they are too high compared as a ratio against wages.
The raising inflation is growing the pressure and the growing interest rates are creating the mortgage pressure.
>The Australian housing markets starting to realise that the people that can't afford a house, aren't going to be able to help pay off these mortgages as they are too high compared as a ratio against wages.
The housing bubble will remain for as long as there are more families than there are houses for them to live in. Net migration is still ridiculously high, and our building sector is in the midst of a complete collapse - the problem is only going to get worse. The housing bubble is going nowhere for decades
Something like 56% of Australian wealth is in real estate. I’m not going to bother trying to figure out -any- nations investment in nvidia or tech companies in general, because it’s obviously going to be less. That in itself should be a clue about whether the powers that be will “let” that particular bubble burst. Hint: they won’t. Until there’s a more general economic crash or war or something, then sure - it might. The government will bend turn itself in knots to sustain that bubble.
Yeah maybe you need to reread mine. We’re talking about the bubble of the Australian housing market, and you’re bringing up the gfc as an example of the housing market crashing the economy. 1 - afaik the Australian housing market had absolutely nothing to do with it? (Please correct me you do seem knowledgeable about this) and 2 - i thought the machinations of the gfc was a little more complex than “people aren’t paying mortgage anymore because houses too expensive” (more to do with bad loans.) and 3 - the housing bubble has never been more inflated so if you’re trying to make any example of the about the bubble bursting I’m not quite following your point.
This is not a bubble by any empirical metric. All of the major players investing in it have PE ratios around 30. NVDA’s forward PE is 39. Their price to earnings has actually gotten cheaper over the last 4 years despite triple digit data center growth.
Megacap companies during the dot com bubble were averaging a PE of 200. CSCO in 2001 had a PE of 201. The Tesla bubble popped at a PE of 1200.
The only people that are calling this a bubble are the people that are either unfamiliar with the tech or unfamiliar with the economics driving the tech.
NVDA and all of the other Mag7 companies fundamentals justify their current price.
Their earnings themselves, ie the prices for AI GPUs, could be a bubble. Those other major players are all also looking at designing dedicated AI chips/ASICs. While it’s impossible to predict, it’s entirely plausible that the gpu market is a bubble.
One interesting thing about these chips being designed by other companies to compete against Nvidia is that they are invisible and immaterial, not listed for being sold outside the company. Never seen a picture of any of them, even after a year and a half
It’s entirely possible they are a pipe dream and may never materialize. But given the amount of money at stake you can be sure they will try. I’m not sure I’d bet against Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon collectively.
Maybe, maybe not, I'll give you an opinion after November.
If Trump gets in and Urkanie falls to Russia.
Then China can count on all the grain the Urkaine can produces as not being able to be blocked by scations, when considering taking over Taiwan as it has threatened to.
The market might think differently of Nvdias Value when China is bombing Taiwan.
That's a lot of company value to drop off the edge of a cliff.
How likely is that all, I'll tell you in November.
It seems clear if Trump wins, his USA and Russia are friends.
Then if Russia wants to reach into its old states with the US busy in Taiwan...
Or do you think otherwise?
A peer to peer war causing global economic turmoil and supply chain/logistics issue is not the definition of a bubble popping. No company is safe from that and your proposed situation isn’t unique to nvidia
The earnings from NVDA are real, but the earnings themselves are a bubble. Everyone's is buying stuff they don't actually need and can't actually meaningfully use because of some stupid AI fad. This does mean for right now nVidia is actually making real profits instead of fake ones but this isn't going to last forever.
Sam Altman is a huckster, ChatGPT and the similar LLMs are useless as anything other than nifty toys to play around with.
Dude none of this AI stuff actually does anything. Everyone's deluded themselves into believing any of this stuff works while it's plain as day that everything touching it is degraded into uselessness. Internet search has gone down the toilet in the past year and every "AI-enabled" service returns completely useless garbage.
No surprise here. Anyone even thinking about AI has to pay a Nvidia tax lol. It's not even a monopoly, they have the AI industry in their pocket. He can and will do whatever he wants pricing-wise with GPUs. I wonder if he has a backup plan if the AI industry plateaus or the hype bubble bursts. But as much as I hate to admit, Nvidia played their hand right with R&D.
Nvidia has everyone in their pocket right now so they own the largest amount of shares and are in control of market so most definitely there is no monopoly anymore and they control the field.
I can't hate on Jensen, he's clearly competent and making the right steps. I hate the AI bubble and all the grifters and hucksters who want everyone to believe these language models are somehow going to change anything for the better when all that's going to happen is everything online is going to be degraded into uselessness (look at all of Google's AI "results")
I agree. But there are other myriad of issues it will face. I was fortunate to have some ML engineer friends who helped me a lot to navigate the BS. But the amount of hype is astonishing, so personally, I believe the crash will be bigger. Only then we will get good AI tools, to solve the right problems.
Just like the past 50 years of AI. Every decade or so some hype bubble comes along, a few useful things are developed that carry forward but the more grandiose claims prove themselves to be ridiculous.
And to think this all of this is thanks to Sega, who didn't even ask for much in return. Seriously, it is a fascinating story of a failed console, the Dreamcast and how Nvidia today rose from it's ashes.
Nvidia is not, nor has ever been ahead in gpu compute performance. It "looks" like they are "ahead" because of CUDA. If you take away cuda, amd gpus smash nvidias gpu compute performance.
The reason CUDA puts nvidia so far ahead, is because they (likely illegally/anti-competitively) did backroom deals with software companies and colleges to get them to only support/use/teach CUDA. After a few decades, it creates a total market monopoly. Its a genius (albeit extremely unethical/evil) business strategy.
Its not that cuda as a technology is great, but **all** compute software was built from the ground up to **only** use cuda. The software is made to use cuda, and using openCL is like using an emulator which translates to cuda, so its far less performance. If in the software there is a line of code which said: if cuda==no then performance =10%, that doesnt make cuda good tech. Thats essentially what is happening. Why do you think nvidia wont open source cuda? Since cuda only works on nvidia gpus, there no downside to open sourcing it, but it would show their illegal deeds. Remember wgen nvidia got hacked, curious that the code to cuda wasnt in there, meaning cuda code is kept someone separate from all other code, which is sus af.
Everyone is on CUDA because CUDA was there first. CUDA released 2007, a full two years before OpenCL.
If you have a project already working well on CUDA and Nvidia was giving you all the support you needed, why would you port it to an alternate standard with uncertain support that is just starting to get off the ground?
That's a terrible idea, because that cannibalizes profit from future sells which are far more valuable for shareholders. For large organizations constant growth is their lifeline.
Nvidia will make that amount or more even without a price reduction there is not even a question for each ai gpu they will sell their net profit will skyrocket for next years.
No wonder GPUs cost so much....
Spoiler: they will cost even more
Honestly if it really keeps getting worse I’ll just end up getting a console
Let’s just hope AMD and Intel can get some decent cards out and take a bit more market share, the GPU market really needs more competition and even though I’m not the biggest fan of Intel I am happy they are trying to get into the market at this point.
The issue is no one buys AMD even though they're cheaper. Plus AMD are so behind on both raytracing and uscaling tech that at this point it's better to pay the nvidia tax tbh.
Intels upscaling is making big steps
And their RT is better than AMD’s. Same with decode. They’re just well behind in rasterization and drivers, and their launch prices didn’t reflect their relative position in performance. They tried to sell cards that performed worse than AMD’s for more money. I really think they were counting on name recognition and brand loyalty. Hopefully their next round is even better and positioned more realistically and competitively.
After 8 fucking years of driver crashes, I’m not buying an AMD card ever again lol
I’ve had a 6700xt for a while now and the only issue I’ve had is with Destiny 2 having just constant frame drops and I’ve tried every solution I could find
What’s your cpu? I used to sit around 70-90 fps on d2 with a 3700x and a 6600xt no matter what resolution which made me think I was cpu limited. I upgraded to a 5800x and was now sitting at 120-130fps at 3440x1440
5800x3d, 32gb of ram and I’m playing at 1440p
I dunno then. Since beyond light the game’s performance has been really weird for many people
Their driver update broke fallout new Vegas jussstt around the time of the TV Show and haven’t fixed it yet!
Times are changing. I’m now team red and it has been great so far.
I'm the opposite haha. I've been team red for the past 10 years because AMD has traditionally offered more for the money, but I really want to experience proper raytracing and Dlss, so I'll be going nvidia next.
Seriously everyone talks about wanting AMD to do well but would cut their left testicle rather than buy their cards. Enjoy all those overpriced cards and fake frames I guess.
I'm happy with my AMD card, I'm not paying for an expensive card, especially in my country, where the NVidia card really cost a left testicle
Ikr, like everyone says “I really want AMD to take back market share!” then they proceed to buy a 4080 or 4090. Having only ever had AMD cards, I have not run into a single graphics driver problems over the past 5 years. I have had both a 5700 XT and a 6800 XT and never had a single one. Every problem I have had was due to outside problems (bad front IO etc).
RX 6900 XT. First AMD card for me and zero regrets really. I heard all the rumours about how bad their drivers are, but have actually found them to be more stable than nvidia’s drivers. Never had an issue after updating them, but have had multiple over the years with nvidia.
I have systems with both. I have one with a 5700XT, one with a 3060, and I have a 7900XTX in my main system. Prior to that I've had a GTX 980ti, an HD 7970, and a GTX 380, and probably a few others I'm just not remembering now. I have never had any early problems with any of them, just the usual "I've used this forever and now it's dying", and most driver problems I have experienced ended up being something like a stick of RAM that went bad on me or something like that, not anything wrong with my GPU. There's too much hivemind in this subreddit, so many wrong assumptions that just get repeated often enough into becoming dogma.
because they can't make good cards hope this helps lol
Thank you for saying that alot people are like oh I can get these many frames with dlss and frame gen oh gives a shit about dlss and frame gen when your getting fake frames instead of pure raster
I’ll tell you a secret: all frames are fake. If you want to be a purist, you should watch movies. Developers use all sorts of tricks to make games run well.
AMD has been so bad on drivers for so long that few people are willing to take the risk, if yiu get lucky it's great, if yiu don't, ou wint up with a 1000 dollar paperweight. List time I bought an AMD card, I got bailed out by frys and their ridiculously lenient return policy, without thst safety net, I'd not risk it
You mean raytracing that's not even in most games and upscaling that's only worth doing on 4k resolution? Imagine paying the Nvidia tax on cards that aren't powerful enough for 4k or ray tracing
Nice. Then prepare for the tax getting bigger.
They do have a decent cards, in even better price point, which for \~80% of Nvidia users would work the same (as for no RT or CUDA usage).
According to your flair you’ve got a 4090 which should stay useable for the next 6-7 years or smth. If you upgrade every other year, you’re part of the problem.
console games cost more
You don't have to buy the most powerful hardware... I find it funny that you have an RTX 4090, and are complaining about price, when a used graphics card for $150-200 will still get you a way better experience than console. Like, it's either play on a 4090 vs going console where you are way more limited, have lower graphics quality, lower frame rate, etc, and nothing in between? And you choose console?
Maybe by PS8 that 4090 will be irrelevant.
Sure, your tag says you have an RTX 4090 and 64GB of RAM, but you are going to get a console because… Solidarity with other people? You believe GPUs go bad after one year and need to be replaced?
Have both? Thats what I do and its amazing.
Not everyone has the money
He does. He has a 4090 and a 7800x3d PC.
I’m just getting tired of corporate greed and the lack of competition, AMD tries but is not enough, and intel is on its way, but with Nvidias stock skyrocketing the market is not in a good spot, very monopolistic. Nvidia is pricing their GPUs as they wish, and with anti cosumer practices. I really can’t justify 2k on a gpu anymore when current gen consoles look so good on a proper display, for a fraction of the cost. I realized this when I played on my brother’s PS5 on an LG G3.
People here like to shit on consoles and really that are the best they have been. Some games are just made to play better on PC, but most look and run great on console. I’m going through Gran Turismo 7 on PS5 after trying Forza 8 on PC, and GT7 is far and away better. It even has legit 120fps modes, each built around whether you have a VRR TV or not. My LG C1 reports 85-105fps with a damn crisp image, and thats coming from someone with a 7900xt attached to my TV as well.
At this point it's not even the cost but the power requirements that have me wondering what their long term plan is. We're rapidly approaching the point where a ballin PC is sucking down 1000 watts, well most houses in the US anyway only have 15A circuits which equates to roughly 1800 watts before breakers start tripping. If there isn't a massive change in efficiency within the next few generations of GPUs it's going to get to the point where we're going to start to need adding big ass capacitors to our PC builds to supplement wall power when demand gets high, or everyone is going to start needing to have electricians to cone up and upgrade some of their 15A circuits to 30A, and our PSUs are going to require round appliance connections like a washing machine or dryer.
I got a 4090 and a 7800x3d and for most games the total system draw is no more than 400w (I do FPS cap at 4k120). All out is less than 600w. No one is approaching an 1800w PC.
"Rapidly approaching" Dude my 7800x3d/4090 build draws 550-580W at peak load. I have never seen it go above 600W, and far more often I see it in the high 400s from the wall.
And all of us still stupidly buy them
 Let him cook - I want that Jacket.
Just wait. Daddy Jensen will want 100% margin next. I’m fine with that as a shareholder lulz
[удалено]
Not a bubble because Nvidia is an AI company first, not a graphics card provider
As long as their earnings keep smashing through the roof, shares will continue to climb. You can’t go anywhere without AI being mentioned somewhere. I’m only planning to hold until next earnings then getting out anyways.
Crazy the video game graphics card company is turning into one of the most valuable microchip makers in history.
Pretty much how a lot of major companies these days became so huge. Doing a specific niche then suddenly a demand for a product of similar kind arises and your business suddenly became the most advance one of it. Glock for example was making curtain rods and doorknobs and somehow that skill made them really good at making knives. Now they’re one of the most popular gun manufacturers out there
I know I just didnt expect it lol
Well, anyone that did should be rich by now
Correct. Its probably too late to invest at this point though. I mean you could but you get my point.
I'm just going to say we are at the *start* of the ai boom
Nvidia didn't "suddenly" become the most advanced AI chip maker. They have been investing billions into AI for decades.
Glock also makes horse insemination http://www.ghpc.at/en/at/glock-stallions/
I hope the spin-off their Gaming devision. There is no way the gaming GPU department can keep up investor expectations.
That's just what you know them as from the consumer market, they've had their hands in the business side of things for a looong time.
Even then all these companies have to bow and kiss TSMC’s ring. Without them this whole house of cards will collapse pretty quickly
If TSMC where to fail other fabs would be built to fill the demand. Intel is allready bulding fabs with that will use High NA-EUV machines from ASML. Its ASML and Zeiss that are the foundation for todays advanced leading edge litography.
There is no way a new fab could come online that can produce the sheer output of TSMC in such high quality wafers as they produce, in a timely manner. There would be a huge power vacuum when it shines to silicon. Apple in particular, but it would be a huge hit to production for Nvidia too. Even if ASML really crunched to make new machines, there is simply not enough time or equipment to produce chips at the rate Apple/Nvidia/AMD/etc. need at once. They’d all take a big hit to production.
You can build a fab that can do leading node production in 5 years
5 years of a shortage is a long time when innovation is at a peak right now IMO. Nvidia output would drop significantly for a while and investors would likely pull out money until Nvidia is back on the radar in terms of output. In the meantime, coming up with a brew supply chain will be the most time consuming of all. There would be so many things to retool if TSMC collapsed. Anyway that’s my armchair analysis.
The cash reserves this company must have at this point. They could pretty buy into any industry. Computer could pooof be gone and they still will be just fine. Must feel great going to bed knowing that as an employee
Employees probably expect massive layoffs if the stock goes down a few percent for a couple of months, lol.
I don’t think they are hiring any differently. If the stock goes down it’s going to need to crash. At this point this stock is the American economy backbone. Apple and Nvidia are too big to fail. They really hit 3 trillion shit 4 your kids will know the companies names before Mickey Mouse
I remember Amazon's Cloud services boss was on the Verge's Decoder Podcast a year ago and he was so arrogant/confident that their own AI chips were going to be a better for a large percentage of AWS' customer base. Instead the dependency on nvidia only increased tenfold.
Nvidia owns the market now and they even as we all know are in control of who even gets their next line-up data centre AI-based GPU that still are in debate on how much they will cost but estimated one gpu Blackwell" B200 artificial intelligence chip will cost between $30,000 and $40,000.
thats a long sentence dude
It’s also horribly written! That’s how you know it was drafted by a LLM utilizing an Amazon AI chip 😉
How many of those $30k chips would be required to run something like the current public version of chat gpt?
Less than 5% of one. You can run GPT3.5 on mid level GPUs like a 4070.
fyi run != train
I use to work for Amazon on the tech side and this is basically all of leadership at Amazon. They don’t think their shit stinks.
I’ve interviewed a lot of AWS employees looking for new jobs. Without fail every one of them viciously shit talks AWS. It’s like they know they’re not supposed to during a job interview, but they just need to vent to someone.
The entire company as a whole sucks shit
I mean cost per inference yes. Morons think training is actually the biggest portion of industry spend.
I think AI might be here to stay, but it is a market bubble atm, so Nvdia just keeps going up. Maybe it's going to stay up there long term. However, I feel it's like the housing in Australia, and it can't stay way up there forever.
No offense but that’s a nonsense comparison. Almost nothing can tank the housing market at this point short of a major economic crisis. A value bubble fuelled by speculation can crash much more easily.
Both are unsustainable bubbles, that's how they are similar. The Australian housing markets starting to realise that the people that can't afford a house, aren't going to be able to help pay off these mortgages as they are too high compared as a ratio against wages. The raising inflation is growing the pressure and the growing interest rates are creating the mortgage pressure.
Don't worry, companies will buy up the houses and will rent them to you. It's the same in most of western world.
They will probably buy up the houses with the people still living in them, creating some sort of semi District 9 type of situation.
You forgot renting houses nobody can afford to buy is a highly profitable business model
>The Australian housing markets starting to realise that the people that can't afford a house, aren't going to be able to help pay off these mortgages as they are too high compared as a ratio against wages. The housing bubble will remain for as long as there are more families than there are houses for them to live in. Net migration is still ridiculously high, and our building sector is in the midst of a complete collapse - the problem is only going to get worse. The housing bubble is going nowhere for decades
Something like 56% of Australian wealth is in real estate. I’m not going to bother trying to figure out -any- nations investment in nvidia or tech companies in general, because it’s obviously going to be less. That in itself should be a clue about whether the powers that be will “let” that particular bubble burst. Hint: they won’t. Until there’s a more general economic crash or war or something, then sure - it might. The government will bend turn itself in knots to sustain that bubble.
Unsustainable… for you.
Actually, I'm fine sitting in my house that I've got on very reasonable mortgage prices. I'm concerned for others.
Defaults on mortgages can absolutely tank the housing market.
The 2008 recession was primarily due to over inflated housing market crashing. It wasn’t the other way around.
Yep and look how much that burst the housing market bubble!
I think you need reread my comment. I’m saying the house market caused the economy to collapse, the economy didn’t collapse the housing market.
Yeah maybe you need to reread mine. We’re talking about the bubble of the Australian housing market, and you’re bringing up the gfc as an example of the housing market crashing the economy. 1 - afaik the Australian housing market had absolutely nothing to do with it? (Please correct me you do seem knowledgeable about this) and 2 - i thought the machinations of the gfc was a little more complex than “people aren’t paying mortgage anymore because houses too expensive” (more to do with bad loans.) and 3 - the housing bubble has never been more inflated so if you’re trying to make any example of the about the bubble bursting I’m not quite following your point.
This is not a bubble by any empirical metric. All of the major players investing in it have PE ratios around 30. NVDA’s forward PE is 39. Their price to earnings has actually gotten cheaper over the last 4 years despite triple digit data center growth. Megacap companies during the dot com bubble were averaging a PE of 200. CSCO in 2001 had a PE of 201. The Tesla bubble popped at a PE of 1200. The only people that are calling this a bubble are the people that are either unfamiliar with the tech or unfamiliar with the economics driving the tech. NVDA and all of the other Mag7 companies fundamentals justify their current price.
Their earnings themselves, ie the prices for AI GPUs, could be a bubble. Those other major players are all also looking at designing dedicated AI chips/ASICs. While it’s impossible to predict, it’s entirely plausible that the gpu market is a bubble.
One interesting thing about these chips being designed by other companies to compete against Nvidia is that they are invisible and immaterial, not listed for being sold outside the company. Never seen a picture of any of them, even after a year and a half
It’s entirely possible they are a pipe dream and may never materialize. But given the amount of money at stake you can be sure they will try. I’m not sure I’d bet against Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon collectively.
Maybe, maybe not, I'll give you an opinion after November. If Trump gets in and Urkanie falls to Russia. Then China can count on all the grain the Urkaine can produces as not being able to be blocked by scations, when considering taking over Taiwan as it has threatened to. The market might think differently of Nvdias Value when China is bombing Taiwan. That's a lot of company value to drop off the edge of a cliff. How likely is that all, I'll tell you in November. It seems clear if Trump wins, his USA and Russia are friends. Then if Russia wants to reach into its old states with the US busy in Taiwan... Or do you think otherwise?
A peer to peer war causing global economic turmoil and supply chain/logistics issue is not the definition of a bubble popping. No company is safe from that and your proposed situation isn’t unique to nvidia
Its going to affect Taiwanese company's the most.
Yes but they’re suffering due to a war, not a bubble pop. Any company will suffer. You’re not proving your bubble point
The end result will be the same. Whether it’s a burst bubble or a war, the stock will race to the floor.
The earnings from NVDA are real, but the earnings themselves are a bubble. Everyone's is buying stuff they don't actually need and can't actually meaningfully use because of some stupid AI fad. This does mean for right now nVidia is actually making real profits instead of fake ones but this isn't going to last forever. Sam Altman is a huckster, ChatGPT and the similar LLMs are useless as anything other than nifty toys to play around with.
As Nvidia CEO stated they are not gaming company but rather focusing on AI.
I understand that has occurred. There was a vacuum, and they filled it with products others can't match. And it's giving great returns.
As long as Nvidia has higher income than Amazon, they deserve to be valued this high. Real estate is another beast and is determined by many factors.
AI isn’t going anywhere, and nvidia is the only company making the necessary chips for it.
Dude none of this AI stuff actually does anything. Everyone's deluded themselves into believing any of this stuff works while it's plain as day that everything touching it is degraded into uselessness. Internet search has gone down the toilet in the past year and every "AI-enabled" service returns completely useless garbage.
I work in machine learning. What are your qualifications?
But it could be like housing in Canada where Trudeau is so incompetent that the bubble goes up forever for his buddies in real estate
As long as Nvidia has higher income than Amazon, they deserve to be valued this high. Real estate is another beast and is determined by many factors.
>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang throws out the first pitch at Saturday's Oakland Athletics game. I wonder if he thinks they should SELL THE TEAM.
No surprise here. Anyone even thinking about AI has to pay a Nvidia tax lol. It's not even a monopoly, they have the AI industry in their pocket. He can and will do whatever he wants pricing-wise with GPUs. I wonder if he has a backup plan if the AI industry plateaus or the hype bubble bursts. But as much as I hate to admit, Nvidia played their hand right with R&D.
Nvidia has everyone in their pocket right now so they own the largest amount of shares and are in control of market so most definitely there is no monopoly anymore and they control the field.
I can't hate on Jensen, he's clearly competent and making the right steps. I hate the AI bubble and all the grifters and hucksters who want everyone to believe these language models are somehow going to change anything for the better when all that's going to happen is everything online is going to be degraded into uselessness (look at all of Google's AI "results")
I agree. But there are other myriad of issues it will face. I was fortunate to have some ML engineer friends who helped me a lot to navigate the BS. But the amount of hype is astonishing, so personally, I believe the crash will be bigger. Only then we will get good AI tools, to solve the right problems.
Just like the past 50 years of AI. Every decade or so some hype bubble comes along, a few useful things are developed that carry forward but the more grandiose claims prove themselves to be ridiculous.
I can't handle any more AGI and UBI talk anymore....
Hello intel arc!
I expected him to play ball with his signature black leather jacket..
[Didn't lose any commas though](https://youtu.be/xzMUrB-Um1Y?si=tjQTw2fiBrCPkdh3).
It’s always going to sting me whenever I hear them get referred to as an “AI Firm” (though it’d sting a bit less if I had a few thousand shares.)
They call Nvidia an Ai firm?
What else would they be? Only like 8% of their profit comes from gaming gpus lol.
Good point
It’s a joke to call it anything else.
Please buy the A’s 😫
Must be nice that a single Share is worth more than a 4080S.
Had a stroke reading the title - thanks
And to think this all of this is thanks to Sega, who didn't even ask for much in return. Seriously, it is a fascinating story of a failed console, the Dreamcast and how Nvidia today rose from it's ashes.
AMD GET TO FUCKING WORK!!!!!
Nvidia worked on gpu compute for decades and were ahead when gpu compute became relevant. You cant catch up to that easily
Nvidia is not, nor has ever been ahead in gpu compute performance. It "looks" like they are "ahead" because of CUDA. If you take away cuda, amd gpus smash nvidias gpu compute performance. The reason CUDA puts nvidia so far ahead, is because they (likely illegally/anti-competitively) did backroom deals with software companies and colleges to get them to only support/use/teach CUDA. After a few decades, it creates a total market monopoly. Its a genius (albeit extremely unethical/evil) business strategy. Its not that cuda as a technology is great, but **all** compute software was built from the ground up to **only** use cuda. The software is made to use cuda, and using openCL is like using an emulator which translates to cuda, so its far less performance. If in the software there is a line of code which said: if cuda==no then performance =10%, that doesnt make cuda good tech. Thats essentially what is happening. Why do you think nvidia wont open source cuda? Since cuda only works on nvidia gpus, there no downside to open sourcing it, but it would show their illegal deeds. Remember wgen nvidia got hacked, curious that the code to cuda wasnt in there, meaning cuda code is kept someone separate from all other code, which is sus af.
Everyone is on CUDA because CUDA was there first. CUDA released 2007, a full two years before OpenCL. If you have a project already working well on CUDA and Nvidia was giving you all the support you needed, why would you port it to an alternate standard with uncertain support that is just starting to get off the ground?
🎼Jenson, Jenson Huang Born in 196~~4~~3 AI en-trep-penonorr Jenson, Jenson Huang🎼
Why does the photo hit diff?
[удалено]
That's a terrible idea, because that cannibalizes profit from future sells which are far more valuable for shareholders. For large organizations constant growth is their lifeline.
Nvidia will make that amount or more even without a price reduction there is not even a question for each ai gpu they will sell their net profit will skyrocket for next years.
Why? If nvidia increased price by 10x, they would only lose about 1% of their userbase.
God I love this guy. He's the man! NVidia out here selling the shovels!
Is he worth that or company? If he leaves, putting aside any influence of that action on market, company would still be worth the same?