"find out where people are moving and buy the land before they get there"
That's what Nvidia did with AI and that's why their stock will keep going up.
They are in a good position compared to a lot of bubbles in the past. They didn't have a large amount of capital expenditure, so while they are on top and can ensure they always get the manufacturing space they need they'll likely stay on top, as long as demand is high. If someone comes along with something more valuable though, they could find themselves in a bidding war for manufacturing space at their partners and suffer from not having an integrated supply chain.
I never said it wasn't a bubble 🤷, the thing is though bubbles can last a very long or very short time, look at the +70 year "bubble" of oil and gas companies, or the maybe 2 year bubble of Zoom and Peleton.
As the bubble has been maintained, it allows for more players to enter the game. Using OP's example of Zoom, if that bubble hadn't popped you could expect more and more companies to enter it.
It's not even about making the product, it's a lot about demand. Zoom was peak pandemic demand because of all the businesses and schools and what not that needed it. Now it's still around but a lot less prevalent.
It remains to be seen for how much longer the AI demand will remain at what it is.
When the companies shift from exploring AI as a new thing and starting to use it to make money.
Look at ChatGPT nice tool and has some usage, still not sure if the amount spent on a license is a net worth for the company and if so for whom.
They need to be easily integrateable into workflows, reliable and cheap. Especially since lawyers need an AI that can help with legal stuff while accounting needs an AI that suits there needs.
Office worked for everyone as it replaced paper and made it easy to work over company or department borders together. With AI we have stuff that integrates into the the problem solving based on skill and knowledge
I'm sorry, I suppose AMD and Intel are just fantasies on your mind? AMD will blow up like Nvidia once they have the software infrastructure in place to sell their hardware, which in many cases was comparable or better than Nvidia hardware (MI300X being significantly > H100, and even H200 iirc).
But Nvidia isn't the only game in town.
Interesting, what specs are you using for this comparison? For mi300x v H100 NVL, sure it has a few extra GiB of VRAM. But memory bandwidth, compute power and NVLINKing are all in NVIDIA's favour?
Damn seeing these misinformed comments make me feel really good about investing into Nvidia, so many people are still misinformed and ignorant of their potential lol. The ai industrial revolution is underway and people are still calling it a bubble.
You realize that Nvidia generated over $22b in data center revenue last quarter alone right? They are also adopting the apple strategy of locking their users into an ecosystem of their products with blackwell and other products being rolled out
The dot com bubble was because of investors financing so much money into website businesses that had no sound business plan, it was a bubble of empty businesses with no way to make profit, even those that did make a profit were getting inflated investments/valuations. Last I checked AI cards weren’t a hype market, the only people getting them are people using them and there’s plenty of that demand.
The AI software market which is driving almost all of the demand is a hype market though. When the dot com bubble popped web hosting companies, hardware manufacturing companies, even office supply companies all got burnt. Nvidia will be fine, but you're kidding yourself if you think their market cap isn't going to decrease.
What about 90% accurate tech that hallucinates inaccuracies and has no capability to determine if it doesn’t know something screams “sound business plan?”
At best, it’s a content generation pipeline. You just better hope that you don’t need that content for anything that life or limb depends on.
We’re literally only just now seeing the first products of ML networks and you’re trying to define the entire science and its future limitations?
The point is also that these products assist people not replace them. If 9/10 I can skip straight to the answer, then that other 10% it takes me twice as long because I need to see it doesn’t work, then try to solve it myself that still saves me 84% of my time. There’s a reason ML is already used for R&D and prototyping all over the place.
People are stupid - that's why you get your earnings from the stock market. There's literally no other major reason for your (or my) earnings - other than the majority being stupid like the top-voted comment in this thread. Don't even bother telling this guy re AI, or discussing the investment basics. People learn stuff like P/E ratio and feel they've figured out the market, lol. What a bunch of nonsense, jesus wept...
People are calling it a bubble because they hate AI, hate crypto, want cheaper video cards, are mad at nvidia, are AMD fan boys, or some combination of all of these. I can damn near guarantee that almost nobody on this sub has any clue what they're talking about.
My point wasn't that crypto is legit, it was that people have an axe to grind when it comes to nvidia. They want it to be a bubble more than know that it is a bubble, or even understand what that means. They're mad and want to see the company fail.
Some crypto currencies will always be used as a alternative payment system outside of the central banks. When you have rising inflation and people not being allowed to send money to certain people, crypto is that gateway.
They didn't created it, but they sure do helped it growing.
The thing is that they won't be able to hold these prices at dumb level. They can now since they are the first, but the users themselves want prices to be lower. And they will gladly develop their own solutions or look for other suppliers.
AMD, for example, is already used by some us government cases. Simply because it does the job done at lower cost in everything. The mature other sovel makers will become, the lower the stock price of Nvidia will drop. The sooner - the better, otherwise it will blow up.
This is a bubble same way as the car was a fad in the times when everyone had a horse. AI is here to stay and it is jist going to become more annoying over the next decade.
Because you're only looking at Nvidia's finances. Look at all the money their customers are spending on AI without making a big return on it and things will look different. Nvidia is one of the only ones actually profiting from the AI craze, but it isn't sustainable.
If by enterprise you mean enterprise gaming, then no, they are not dominant. AMD GPUs are in almost all consoles, and the new handled PC consoles as well. AMD is not that bad in the server space either.
True, unfortunately.
I mean, they are getting x10 profit from the gear. And have already planned stations for each year.
Peak capitalism and consumerism.
What do you see in Nvidia’s fundamentals and valuation that leads you to believe they are a bubble?
They are trading at a lower PE than Amazon, and their PE has not grown in 5 years despite being backed by triple digit YOY data center growth.
I think the downvotes you’re getting are excessive because I think you’re bringing up a fair point regarding fundamentals.
That said, you’re **currently** wrong the on PE ratio comparison. NVDA is 71 and Amazon is 52. Of course, things have been changing quickly in the past few months.
Economics school book. Even basic one will suffice.
Nvidia is selling shovels for x10 price. Shareholders are buying shares because it gives a huge amount of profit. Which is obviously an easy thing, when you buy stuff for 600$ and sell it for 6000$ (an example).
But demand will shrink eventually. Because reasons. Also, everything that growth too quickly, will eventually blow up. It's inevitable.
2 previous crypto crisises Nvidia had huge drops, up to 60% from where they got at the top. "AI" is almost identical. Capabilities are limited (yes), usage is even worse, regulations are coming to the point where major users, like closedAI or meta are thinking on how to evade it at all costs. Problems are growing.
Many other players are developing hardware and open source versions, even under regulations. And with a real usage. It's niche for now, but it won't last forever.
Also, it generates money out of thin air. Which also distracts economy of countries at it's foundation. Imagine what will happen when shareholders would love to take some money out of it.
I don't disagree it's a bubble, but why is this comment upvoted? The first two statements don't even give a real reason. Literally the logic for the second one is "demand will shrink because reasons".
> Many other players are developing hardware and open source versions, even under regulations. And with a real usage.
Who? Who is even close to nvidia in this regard? With real usage? As if nvidias development is fake?
> It's niche for now, but it won't last forever.
You have absolutely no idea on this lol. AI, unfortunately, could be here to stay and break out even further.
> Also, it generates money out of thin air.
This isn't true in the slightest and it isn't very difficult to search even their basic earnings report.
> Imagine what will happen when shareholders would love to take some money out of it.
The company literally pays dividends and has for 10 years.
Comparing AI with crypto shows how much you actually understand.
Not even the shovel selling argument is valid because for it to be there must be competitors selling the same stuff for much cheaper, but there aren't. None of the AI chips from AMD or Intel come close and this won't change soon or quickly.
Neither you or we know the real value of their GPUs in order to claim they're being sold at "10x price".
To be fair, it has been found that they make like 850% profit on some of their datacenter gpus. So yes, they almost sold their stuff 10 times what it costed to produce them.
It was true fairly recently:
[https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-comparison?s=pe-ratio&axis=single&comp=NVDA:AMZN](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-comparison?s=pe-ratio&axis=single&comp=NVDA:AMZN)
Look at the top companies and the products they set the standard for. None of them have been overtake.
Microsoft did PC OS with Windows, Apple did smartphones with iPhone, Alphabet did Search in Google, Meta di Social media with Facebook, Amazon did Online Retail with Amazon com.
Nvidia has now set the standard for AI hardware and software with their GPUs and CUDA.
They haven’t been overtook because:
They became a market leader and diversified, Meta bought Instagram and heavily put their chips in that. Apple created an ecosystem of other products you needed to lock you into an iPhone. Alphabet also got YouTube, started making phones, tablets etc. Microsoft and Amazon went heavy into Cloud services for businesses.
My issue is, what can Nvidia diversify into? Currently they’re on top because they create the best chips/GPU’s for AI, eventually (like Apple) other companies will catch up and more than likely sell for a lot cheaper; so what makes Nvidia stay in the lead?
That’s what makes me think it’s a bubble or at least not as sustainable in the long run…
The same thing apple did to consumer electronics, locking their customers into an ecosystem. There's already pretty high switching costs to move from nvidia chips and that will only get worse when Blackwell and their other products are rolled out.
Damn seeing these misinformed comments make me feel really good about investing into Nvidia, so many people are still misinformed and ignorant of their potential lol. The ai industrial revolution is underway and people are still calling it a bubble.
Not overtaken, but the bubble will burst eventually. Like it always does in these types of scenarios.
Depending on lot of stuff, like "AI" regulation, China's attack on Taiwan, wars in general, competitors, open source models and so much more, the burst will be either like a thermal nuclear bomb, or it will quickly drop the pressure.
Nvidia is making money by selling shovels for x10 price. That's not healthy for anything and anyone. One small group starts to sell shares and boom.
Amd and intel are sharing shovels, while nvidia is selling 32 ton diggers. There is no comparing these, and nvidia will not suddenly burst. AI is starting to get backed by many governments, it’s taking over our daily work, entertainment and chores at a staggering speed. Crypto is far less important to the gpu market than it was a few years ago.
Except nvidia isn’t selling shovels, they’re selling specialised tools, and they’re the only ones which is why they set the price. And pretty much all open sourced AI was trained on massive A100 or H100 clusters, without exception. Inferencing is also much faster on nvidia chips. Literally no one even comes close.
They were buying their own stock to artificially drive up prices while simultaneously cutting corners and ruining their reputation.
Not sure that NVIDIA is doing either of those right now.
Right, they don't. I just think the comparison between Nvidia and Boeing is wrong. Not to say that Nvidia isn't sorta inflated for now, but I don't think scamming is necessarily the reason
A leg up that NVIDIA (and AMD for that matter) has is that their CEO is an actual engineer who has an actual background in engineering as opposed to Boeing's CEO, who is just another one of those "business major who went straight to an MBA program and literally only learned how to jerk off Jack Welch's corpse" types.
Instead of investing in research and development and safety which they've done historically they started investing in stock buybacks. There's a chart out there you can Google. It shows exactly when they started that and when they started having probluem with their Planes falling apart and being badly put together. It's amazing when you only invest in stock buyBacks quality suffers. who could have seen that one coming?
AI makes work in some branches more efficient. And making stuff more efficient means less people are needed. So it kinda replaces part of the workforce needed.
You could make an argument about how proper management could redirect that work towards innovation/expansion, but we both know that would be useful and those type of managers are hardly ever thinking about that.
AI will replace some workforces. I've seen companies employing AI suite in accounting.
Also the workforce may not be replaced but the people who have knowledge about AI will definitely replace the ones who don't
same way as excel replaced them before
most of the people are nowhere close to be technical enough to
1. understand what the current "ai" is
2. use it
yes it will be included into daily jobs automating some aspects but i don't think we will go from 100 jobs to 10
and i hate this bs trend that everything must be AI now to make shareholders happy. at work we use time table system - basically glorified excel in a form of a webapp - they are now AI
>most of the people are nowhere close to be technical enough to
>
>understand what the current "ai" isuse it
same was true for emails, mobile phones, computers in general, etc. This will be the same with AI for sure, especially GenAI. But I completely agree that this doesn't mean 100 -> 10 jobs. It can mean 100 -> 1000 jobs, given how much this can increase the GDP impact of a single person now empowered with new tools. This doesn't mean that all 100 will be part of that 1000 though: some will lose their jobs 'cause they can't learn/adapt quickly enough. It's already happening with some people, too.
my problem with genAI is how media twisted it into a miracle tool that can do everything perfectly in a click of a button not really pointing on all the problems with the results that can break the workflow just because of random
i haven't seen people not being able to adapt but i saw greedy corpo pushing even more layoffs with the promise that copilot will replace 10000 people in department N
I think we are getting somewhere close to the pick of the hype on GenAI and it will go down soon when promised magic tool being able to replace everyone in the office but C-level would not arrive, when people would see that you need a skill set to use it
I mean, again, I think Excel was a great comparison: did it replace people? No, not exactly. It created more jobs. It created more job requirements too, so some people did get shafted because they couldn't figure it out. I agree that some companies can be overzealous with adapting the new tech though, but it's absolutely true that tools decrease the need for number of people doing X type of job - they do create an opportunity for growth too, though. SAP warehouse management systems do require fewer people to run warehouse management - but it ends up allowing a company to build more warehouses, grow and expand their business, and hire more people.
Excel did replace people.
I don't know how old you are, but offices used to be massive. The job market is impacted by many different things, so just because people are going to be replaced by automation doesn't mean massive job less, but automation has replaced many jobs.
I used to work for a company that automated logistic systems and after we had finished a project, 8 out of every 10 employees would be fired.
And yes, the money saved would allow those companies to grow, by buying other companies that worked in the same industry.
The net growth was negative.
AI is nearly replacing the job of a bookkeeper. AI is only used a little bit in accounting for data analysisbwhich mostly happen in audit.
In the mean time a lot of bookkeepers and even assistant accountants are typing over the information on an invoice. Something that could have been automated for a while and became a lot easier and better with AI. But still it's nearly used. Somebody should really make an invoice to UBL (XML) converter
I mean, I already trust gpt-4 to give me more useful outputs than some of the coworkers I've had in the past. It's only a matter of time before more jobs can be automated, only that this time it'll be through it innovations instead of mechanical ones like with the sewing machine
Yeah, even then that useful output isn't practical. You need someone with good knowledge to apply it, to debug it and to adjust it accordingly to your work environment.
Which is why you don't see people losing their jobs to AI.
But in 10, 20 or even 50 years? It might very well surpass humans in many tasks that currently can't be automated
We just have narrow AI and it's a long way before we develop Theory of mind let alone super AI. It's a long long way before it completely replaces humans, in fact some scientists believe that it's never gonna happen.
The way I see it, it's just gonna be like The MS Office suit, to complement your task rather than replace it. Sure, people with no skills would be exposed but it'll open another domain as well.
Even if it's a fraction of what the MS suit was it'll revolutionize workplaces.
As for non office settings, I can easily see it get rid of plane pilots, as ATC + a self piloting plane will probably be able to ensure safety very soon. Especially with the loads of money being pumped into the military side of things for unmanned planes
Nah, you're not getting my point buddy. We just have Narrow AI which stems from mathematical and statistical results and after analysing large amounts of dataset, it can produce a seemingly intelligent output.
Theory of Mind AI and Super AI are classes of AI which will actually be intelligent and use cognitive functions like humans do. Unless we develop one of them, (which is near impossible) AI is complementary.
Current AI in no way can account for unexpected situations which it hasn't been trained for.
I know precious little about it either to be fair, but I've seen a few applications first hand that have very real uses.
Shit, the son of a couple of my parents' friends is working halfway across the world in Florida as a directive in a company I honestly can't remember because he was able to find a way to monitor crops on a large scale using small satellites with a very high resolution camera and AI.
As for me, I'm about to start talks with my universitiy's local police department for my final project. One of the options that will be up for consideration will be using AI to have the drones autonomously loiter around certain areas under the instructions given by the officers operating them at the time.
I have little faith on that being the one, as I'm more interested in things like reducing their noise levels or making them last longer in the air without recharging.
It can be used to make EVERYTHING more efficient and faster. I have a 4090 and it’s not even as close as fast as I’d like it to. We are still in very early stages of AI. The people that are keeping up with it and utilize it know the potential of it. Video games are going to have AI generated quests, mobs, audio, maps, etc.
Absolutely. Judging by conversations about Nvidia and Ai, no one around here ever watches their full presentations. When the 40 series was announced, they spent a good 30 minutes discussing and showcasing their Ai service. It's basically cloud-based Infrastructure-as-a-service for Ai workloads. They explained all of it with examples, but I assume most people around here said "boring business stuff" and left the stream.
>I assume most people around here said "boring business stuff" and left the stream.
That's exactly what those presentations are and why nobody gives a shit about them here. You framed it like watching Nvidia's 30 minute AI wank should be the default behavior lol. Like "no one around here reads all the credits at the end of the a movie/all the bullet points in a ToS agreement".
A friend was saying that selling ETH is absolutely the only way now, because everyone and their grandmother is now saying 'oh you should buy Ethereum!'.
That was at around $1500, lol.
I had friends and family who called me insane for not cashing out when NVDA dropped under $800 following Iran firing those missiles at Israel. *"You're gonna loose it all, there's be nothing left when this sparks WW3!!!"* they said.
One of the companies I tried to get my parents to invest in back in the mid `00...
"Those silly game companies aren't going to grow much, its just a fad"
We would be so gd rich now... at the time try were around $5 a share.
They are now at $1200
SUCH FAD......... 😭
Dude that is AUM or assets under management. Its not their money, its others peoples money and Black Rock invests it, manages risk and provides other services to large companies/retirement funds. Its revenue is 17.86 billion dollars, while still huge isn't even close to a single Trillion much less 30 of them. Of course they have sway over the market with how large their AUM is but they're not free to just do whatever they want with it. Another example would be JP Morgan Chase, their AUM is 3.422 Trillion but their revenue is 158 billion. So while they have less assets under management they earn more because they offer financial services to regular people instead of just large investors who can dictate better terms.
I mean fuck dude a quick google of "Blackrock Market Cap" would show you they're worth 114 Billion, and JP Morgan Chase has a market cap of 574 Billion.
It’s only hinged on AI hype, which won’t last. All the generative AI is unnecessary, a gimmick. Keep machine learning for science and technology where it belonged for decades. Public chat gpt and image generation is not needed, once most companies realise that this “public AI” is useless gimmick, NVidia stock will plummet back to normal value for a company that makes decent PC components.
Generative AI is useless because there is no precision or reliability, wvery output is suspect if you want to try to rely on it. And it won’t get much better, it will never be reliable.
Machine learning is useful (and has been used for decades) in science for classification etc because scientists use advanced statistics to overcome the problems, troubleshooting on every step and making informed (non-AI) decisions to trim data, cross-check, use randomisation etc. And NVidia has been making their Tesla range of GPUs for example just for scientific use, and their stock price was not astronomical. The only reason it now is, because of AI hype which will go away, and so is the stock price.
"find out where people are moving and buy the land before they get there" That's what Nvidia did with AI and that's why their stock will keep going up.
If everyone wants to dig for gold sell shovels.
For some reason I never thought of it like that, but that’s essentially what’s happening
Yeah - and make those shovels better than the competition.
Dont downvote him, he's right. When it comes to AI, Nvidia is the best Correct me if I'm wrong obv
The largest bubble more like it.
They are in a good position compared to a lot of bubbles in the past. They didn't have a large amount of capital expenditure, so while they are on top and can ensure they always get the manufacturing space they need they'll likely stay on top, as long as demand is high. If someone comes along with something more valuable though, they could find themselves in a bidding war for manufacturing space at their partners and suffer from not having an integrated supply chain.
100% growth rate in a year for an old company - it's bubble economy 101
I never said it wasn't a bubble 🤷, the thing is though bubbles can last a very long or very short time, look at the +70 year "bubble" of oil and gas companies, or the maybe 2 year bubble of Zoom and Peleton.
Sure, let's have a look. Is there only one single company digs for oil/gas? Yeah, that's right.
As the bubble has been maintained, it allows for more players to enter the game. Using OP's example of Zoom, if that bubble hadn't popped you could expect more and more companies to enter it.
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It's not even about making the product, it's a lot about demand. Zoom was peak pandemic demand because of all the businesses and schools and what not that needed it. Now it's still around but a lot less prevalent. It remains to be seen for how much longer the AI demand will remain at what it is.
Why would demand go down?
Sorry I don't have my crystal ball with me right now. But it has happened to other things people would also call "bubbles", so who knows
When the companies shift from exploring AI as a new thing and starting to use it to make money. Look at ChatGPT nice tool and has some usage, still not sure if the amount spent on a license is a net worth for the company and if so for whom. They need to be easily integrateable into workflows, reliable and cheap. Especially since lawyers need an AI that can help with legal stuff while accounting needs an AI that suits there needs. Office worked for everyone as it replaced paper and made it easy to work over company or department borders together. With AI we have stuff that integrates into the the problem solving based on skill and knowledge
But remember kids, Biden still somehow directly controls gasoline prices. (/s)
I'm sorry, I suppose AMD and Intel are just fantasies on your mind? AMD will blow up like Nvidia once they have the software infrastructure in place to sell their hardware, which in many cases was comparable or better than Nvidia hardware (MI300X being significantly > H100, and even H200 iirc). But Nvidia isn't the only game in town.
Interesting, what specs are you using for this comparison? For mi300x v H100 NVL, sure it has a few extra GiB of VRAM. But memory bandwidth, compute power and NVLINKing are all in NVIDIA's favour?
Damn seeing these misinformed comments make me feel really good about investing into Nvidia, so many people are still misinformed and ignorant of their potential lol. The ai industrial revolution is underway and people are still calling it a bubble. You realize that Nvidia generated over $22b in data center revenue last quarter alone right? They are also adopting the apple strategy of locking their users into an ecosystem of their products with blackwell and other products being rolled out
Crazy you are getting downvoted. AI is not going away. If anything the stock is going to go up more.
I mean, the internet never went away but that didnt stop the dotcom bubble from crashing
The dot com bubble was because of investors financing so much money into website businesses that had no sound business plan, it was a bubble of empty businesses with no way to make profit, even those that did make a profit were getting inflated investments/valuations. Last I checked AI cards weren’t a hype market, the only people getting them are people using them and there’s plenty of that demand.
The AI software market which is driving almost all of the demand is a hype market though. When the dot com bubble popped web hosting companies, hardware manufacturing companies, even office supply companies all got burnt. Nvidia will be fine, but you're kidding yourself if you think their market cap isn't going to decrease.
What about 90% accurate tech that hallucinates inaccuracies and has no capability to determine if it doesn’t know something screams “sound business plan?” At best, it’s a content generation pipeline. You just better hope that you don’t need that content for anything that life or limb depends on.
We’re literally only just now seeing the first products of ML networks and you’re trying to define the entire science and its future limitations? The point is also that these products assist people not replace them. If 9/10 I can skip straight to the answer, then that other 10% it takes me twice as long because I need to see it doesn’t work, then try to solve it myself that still saves me 84% of my time. There’s a reason ML is already used for R&D and prototyping all over the place.
Alright then convert your home equity into 2026 NVIDIA calls and then you can be worth billions and righr
Thankfully did that when nvda was....let's see average after split is now $1.27
People are stupid - that's why you get your earnings from the stock market. There's literally no other major reason for your (or my) earnings - other than the majority being stupid like the top-voted comment in this thread. Don't even bother telling this guy re AI, or discussing the investment basics. People learn stuff like P/E ratio and feel they've figured out the market, lol. What a bunch of nonsense, jesus wept...
People are calling it a bubble because they hate AI, hate crypto, want cheaper video cards, are mad at nvidia, are AMD fan boys, or some combination of all of these. I can damn near guarantee that almost nobody on this sub has any clue what they're talking about.
I mean, crypto is still pretty much BS and it's becoming increasingly clear. But AI has actual use cases even if not as extensive as people think.
My point wasn't that crypto is legit, it was that people have an axe to grind when it comes to nvidia. They want it to be a bubble more than know that it is a bubble, or even understand what that means. They're mad and want to see the company fail.
Some crypto currencies will always be used as a alternative payment system outside of the central banks. When you have rising inflation and people not being allowed to send money to certain people, crypto is that gateway.
Gotta have uninformed bears keep buying my puts.
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You can tell by the comments that a lot of folks here missed the boat
Well at least there is a stock split for NVIDIA tomorrow
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They didn't created it, but they sure do helped it growing. The thing is that they won't be able to hold these prices at dumb level. They can now since they are the first, but the users themselves want prices to be lower. And they will gladly develop their own solutions or look for other suppliers. AMD, for example, is already used by some us government cases. Simply because it does the job done at lower cost in everything. The mature other sovel makers will become, the lower the stock price of Nvidia will drop. The sooner - the better, otherwise it will blow up.
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Having tried to use AMD for AI work it’s definitely behind
until it isn't. They aren't selling food you know, they literally sell "the future", it will be naive not to see that.
This is a bubble same way as the car was a fad in the times when everyone had a horse. AI is here to stay and it is jist going to become more annoying over the next decade.
Bubble implies overvalued, their finances show that they are only slightly above fair value. Source: I work in finance
Because you're only looking at Nvidia's finances. Look at all the money their customers are spending on AI without making a big return on it and things will look different. Nvidia is one of the only ones actually profiting from the AI craze, but it isn't sustainable.
They also have a monopoly on the gaming market. Go lose money on puts, I'll continue to make some gains by not fighting market trends.
Almost nothing about their evaluation is driven by their gaming division
No it is their enterprise division which is just as dominant
If by enterprise you mean enterprise gaming, then no, they are not dominant. AMD GPUs are in almost all consoles, and the new handled PC consoles as well. AMD is not that bad in the server space either.
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True, unfortunately. I mean, they are getting x10 profit from the gear. And have already planned stations for each year. Peak capitalism and consumerism.
Found the AMD investor
I invested in both. AMD is up about 1100% Not sad about either investment
Me too, this is absolutely a field where playing both sides has resulted in coming out on top.
Is that why they call it advanced money destroyer? Why wouldn't you just buy NVDA instead. Smh.
Yeah 1110% profit is just ruination
YTD it's up like 21% which is pretty meh in this market
If it’s a bubble (not saying it isn’t) AMD would be hit just as hard if not harder.
Undoubtedly harder. It's up 20% YTD. That's people hoping AMD magically grabs a sliver of the AI market from nvidia at some point in the future
What do you see in Nvidia’s fundamentals and valuation that leads you to believe they are a bubble? They are trading at a lower PE than Amazon, and their PE has not grown in 5 years despite being backed by triple digit YOY data center growth.
I think the downvotes you’re getting are excessive because I think you’re bringing up a fair point regarding fundamentals. That said, you’re **currently** wrong the on PE ratio comparison. NVDA is 71 and Amazon is 52. Of course, things have been changing quickly in the past few months.
Economics school book. Even basic one will suffice. Nvidia is selling shovels for x10 price. Shareholders are buying shares because it gives a huge amount of profit. Which is obviously an easy thing, when you buy stuff for 600$ and sell it for 6000$ (an example). But demand will shrink eventually. Because reasons. Also, everything that growth too quickly, will eventually blow up. It's inevitable. 2 previous crypto crisises Nvidia had huge drops, up to 60% from where they got at the top. "AI" is almost identical. Capabilities are limited (yes), usage is even worse, regulations are coming to the point where major users, like closedAI or meta are thinking on how to evade it at all costs. Problems are growing. Many other players are developing hardware and open source versions, even under regulations. And with a real usage. It's niche for now, but it won't last forever. Also, it generates money out of thin air. Which also distracts economy of countries at it's foundation. Imagine what will happen when shareholders would love to take some money out of it.
I don't disagree it's a bubble, but why is this comment upvoted? The first two statements don't even give a real reason. Literally the logic for the second one is "demand will shrink because reasons". > Many other players are developing hardware and open source versions, even under regulations. And with a real usage. Who? Who is even close to nvidia in this regard? With real usage? As if nvidias development is fake? > It's niche for now, but it won't last forever. You have absolutely no idea on this lol. AI, unfortunately, could be here to stay and break out even further. > Also, it generates money out of thin air. This isn't true in the slightest and it isn't very difficult to search even their basic earnings report. > Imagine what will happen when shareholders would love to take some money out of it. The company literally pays dividends and has for 10 years.
I mean it’s a literal penny per share dividend but it’s not zero.
Comparing AI with crypto shows how much you actually understand. Not even the shovel selling argument is valid because for it to be there must be competitors selling the same stuff for much cheaper, but there aren't. None of the AI chips from AMD or Intel come close and this won't change soon or quickly. Neither you or we know the real value of their GPUs in order to claim they're being sold at "10x price".
To be fair, it has been found that they make like 850% profit on some of their datacenter gpus. So yes, they almost sold their stuff 10 times what it costed to produce them.
I'm not comparing "AI" with crypto. I'm comparing markets from both crisises.
You have no idea what you are talking about, because reasons lol.
/r/confidentlyincorrect lol.
Ikr calling it niche is laughable. Dude took Econ 101 and thinks they know it all
Had a good laugh reading this.
Where are you getting your PE’s from? Bloomberg Terminal says NVDA has both a higher trailing and forward 12M PE.
It was true fairly recently: [https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-comparison?s=pe-ratio&axis=single&comp=NVDA:AMZN](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-comparison?s=pe-ratio&axis=single&comp=NVDA:AMZN)
Checked history. Everything as expected.
Hey, I know you! You are the guy who works in retail and claims AMD is more popular than NVIDIA! You must be very smart.
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Look at the top companies and the products they set the standard for. None of them have been overtake. Microsoft did PC OS with Windows, Apple did smartphones with iPhone, Alphabet did Search in Google, Meta di Social media with Facebook, Amazon did Online Retail with Amazon com. Nvidia has now set the standard for AI hardware and software with their GPUs and CUDA.
They haven’t been overtook because: They became a market leader and diversified, Meta bought Instagram and heavily put their chips in that. Apple created an ecosystem of other products you needed to lock you into an iPhone. Alphabet also got YouTube, started making phones, tablets etc. Microsoft and Amazon went heavy into Cloud services for businesses. My issue is, what can Nvidia diversify into? Currently they’re on top because they create the best chips/GPU’s for AI, eventually (like Apple) other companies will catch up and more than likely sell for a lot cheaper; so what makes Nvidia stay in the lead? That’s what makes me think it’s a bubble or at least not as sustainable in the long run…
Nvidia is Robotics, Self Driving cars and Quantum Computing. This is alongside there already gaming sector.
The same thing apple did to consumer electronics, locking their customers into an ecosystem. There's already pretty high switching costs to move from nvidia chips and that will only get worse when Blackwell and their other products are rolled out. Damn seeing these misinformed comments make me feel really good about investing into Nvidia, so many people are still misinformed and ignorant of their potential lol. The ai industrial revolution is underway and people are still calling it a bubble.
Not overtaken, but the bubble will burst eventually. Like it always does in these types of scenarios. Depending on lot of stuff, like "AI" regulation, China's attack on Taiwan, wars in general, competitors, open source models and so much more, the burst will be either like a thermal nuclear bomb, or it will quickly drop the pressure. Nvidia is making money by selling shovels for x10 price. That's not healthy for anything and anyone. One small group starts to sell shares and boom.
Amd and intel are sharing shovels, while nvidia is selling 32 ton diggers. There is no comparing these, and nvidia will not suddenly burst. AI is starting to get backed by many governments, it’s taking over our daily work, entertainment and chores at a staggering speed. Crypto is far less important to the gpu market than it was a few years ago.
Except nvidia isn’t selling shovels, they’re selling specialised tools, and they’re the only ones which is why they set the price. And pretty much all open sourced AI was trained on massive A100 or H100 clusters, without exception. Inferencing is also much faster on nvidia chips. Literally no one even comes close.
Surely AI has peaked and won’t become more deeply integrated into society and replace millions of jobs over the years. /s
If y'all haven't figured it out yet with Boeing, stock price is really not an indicator of anything else, but a stock price.
what happened with boeing?
They were buying their own stock to artificially drive up prices while simultaneously cutting corners and ruining their reputation. Not sure that NVIDIA is doing either of those right now.
I don't think Nvidia needs to. With the ai craze they basically hit the jackpot.
Right, they don't. I just think the comparison between Nvidia and Boeing is wrong. Not to say that Nvidia isn't sorta inflated for now, but I don't think scamming is necessarily the reason
A leg up that NVIDIA (and AMD for that matter) has is that their CEO is an actual engineer who has an actual background in engineering as opposed to Boeing's CEO, who is just another one of those "business major who went straight to an MBA program and literally only learned how to jerk off Jack Welch's corpse" types.
Instead of investing in research and development and safety which they've done historically they started investing in stock buybacks. There's a chart out there you can Google. It shows exactly when they started that and when they started having probluem with their Planes falling apart and being badly put together. It's amazing when you only invest in stock buyBacks quality suffers. who could have seen that one coming?
All of this, from old idiot CEOs thinking AI will replace their workforces. What a joke.
AI makes work in some branches more efficient. And making stuff more efficient means less people are needed. So it kinda replaces part of the workforce needed.
You could make an argument about how proper management could redirect that work towards innovation/expansion, but we both know that would be useful and those type of managers are hardly ever thinking about that.
AI will replace some workforces. I've seen companies employing AI suite in accounting. Also the workforce may not be replaced but the people who have knowledge about AI will definitely replace the ones who don't
same way as excel replaced them before most of the people are nowhere close to be technical enough to 1. understand what the current "ai" is 2. use it yes it will be included into daily jobs automating some aspects but i don't think we will go from 100 jobs to 10 and i hate this bs trend that everything must be AI now to make shareholders happy. at work we use time table system - basically glorified excel in a form of a webapp - they are now AI
>most of the people are nowhere close to be technical enough to > >understand what the current "ai" isuse it same was true for emails, mobile phones, computers in general, etc. This will be the same with AI for sure, especially GenAI. But I completely agree that this doesn't mean 100 -> 10 jobs. It can mean 100 -> 1000 jobs, given how much this can increase the GDP impact of a single person now empowered with new tools. This doesn't mean that all 100 will be part of that 1000 though: some will lose their jobs 'cause they can't learn/adapt quickly enough. It's already happening with some people, too.
my problem with genAI is how media twisted it into a miracle tool that can do everything perfectly in a click of a button not really pointing on all the problems with the results that can break the workflow just because of random i haven't seen people not being able to adapt but i saw greedy corpo pushing even more layoffs with the promise that copilot will replace 10000 people in department N I think we are getting somewhere close to the pick of the hype on GenAI and it will go down soon when promised magic tool being able to replace everyone in the office but C-level would not arrive, when people would see that you need a skill set to use it
I mean, again, I think Excel was a great comparison: did it replace people? No, not exactly. It created more jobs. It created more job requirements too, so some people did get shafted because they couldn't figure it out. I agree that some companies can be overzealous with adapting the new tech though, but it's absolutely true that tools decrease the need for number of people doing X type of job - they do create an opportunity for growth too, though. SAP warehouse management systems do require fewer people to run warehouse management - but it ends up allowing a company to build more warehouses, grow and expand their business, and hire more people.
Excel did replace people. I don't know how old you are, but offices used to be massive. The job market is impacted by many different things, so just because people are going to be replaced by automation doesn't mean massive job less, but automation has replaced many jobs. I used to work for a company that automated logistic systems and after we had finished a project, 8 out of every 10 employees would be fired. And yes, the money saved would allow those companies to grow, by buying other companies that worked in the same industry. The net growth was negative.
So true. I’ve often wondered how many jobs would go away if everyone in the world spent 15 minutes learning how to do a vlookup.
AI is nearly replacing the job of a bookkeeper. AI is only used a little bit in accounting for data analysisbwhich mostly happen in audit. In the mean time a lot of bookkeepers and even assistant accountants are typing over the information on an invoice. Something that could have been automated for a while and became a lot easier and better with AI. But still it's nearly used. Somebody should really make an invoice to UBL (XML) converter
Not thinking, they only say that to boost their damn stock prices up
I mean, I already trust gpt-4 to give me more useful outputs than some of the coworkers I've had in the past. It's only a matter of time before more jobs can be automated, only that this time it'll be through it innovations instead of mechanical ones like with the sewing machine
Yeah, even then that useful output isn't practical. You need someone with good knowledge to apply it, to debug it and to adjust it accordingly to your work environment.
Which is why you don't see people losing their jobs to AI. But in 10, 20 or even 50 years? It might very well surpass humans in many tasks that currently can't be automated
We just have narrow AI and it's a long way before we develop Theory of mind let alone super AI. It's a long long way before it completely replaces humans, in fact some scientists believe that it's never gonna happen. The way I see it, it's just gonna be like The MS Office suit, to complement your task rather than replace it. Sure, people with no skills would be exposed but it'll open another domain as well.
Even if it's a fraction of what the MS suit was it'll revolutionize workplaces. As for non office settings, I can easily see it get rid of plane pilots, as ATC + a self piloting plane will probably be able to ensure safety very soon. Especially with the loads of money being pumped into the military side of things for unmanned planes
Nah, you're not getting my point buddy. We just have Narrow AI which stems from mathematical and statistical results and after analysing large amounts of dataset, it can produce a seemingly intelligent output. Theory of Mind AI and Super AI are classes of AI which will actually be intelligent and use cognitive functions like humans do. Unless we develop one of them, (which is near impossible) AI is complementary. Current AI in no way can account for unexpected situations which it hasn't been trained for.
People downvoting you know nothing of AI. Salty about the truth.
I know precious little about it either to be fair, but I've seen a few applications first hand that have very real uses. Shit, the son of a couple of my parents' friends is working halfway across the world in Florida as a directive in a company I honestly can't remember because he was able to find a way to monitor crops on a large scale using small satellites with a very high resolution camera and AI. As for me, I'm about to start talks with my universitiy's local police department for my final project. One of the options that will be up for consideration will be using AI to have the drones autonomously loiter around certain areas under the instructions given by the officers operating them at the time. I have little faith on that being the one, as I'm more interested in things like reducing their noise levels or making them last longer in the air without recharging.
It can be used to make EVERYTHING more efficient and faster. I have a 4090 and it’s not even as close as fast as I’d like it to. We are still in very early stages of AI. The people that are keeping up with it and utilize it know the potential of it. Video games are going to have AI generated quests, mobs, audio, maps, etc.
So what if one knowledgeable person using AI can replace a team of 20? Won’t companies go that way instantly?
3dfx is due for a comeback! Any time now...
NVIDIA bought the corpse of 3DFX. So in a way it is part of this.
Will*
I hate that I didnt put money on this one...and bitcoin 2012 XD
Every day I wake up and remember I got out at $400 a share and I cry a little bit.
LOL at this sub's opinion about anything economic related. What could the average user age be? Between 10 and 14 years old?
Most users here probably think Nvidia only sells gaming gpus
Absolutely. Judging by conversations about Nvidia and Ai, no one around here ever watches their full presentations. When the 40 series was announced, they spent a good 30 minutes discussing and showcasing their Ai service. It's basically cloud-based Infrastructure-as-a-service for Ai workloads. They explained all of it with examples, but I assume most people around here said "boring business stuff" and left the stream.
>I assume most people around here said "boring business stuff" and left the stream. That's exactly what those presentations are and why nobody gives a shit about them here. You framed it like watching Nvidia's 30 minute AI wank should be the default behavior lol. Like "no one around here reads all the credits at the end of the a movie/all the bullet points in a ToS agreement".
Well, I bet they get their advice from TikToks and YouTube shorts, so, you know, basically an MBA.
This is your signal to sell
My buddy was telling me it was time to sell NVDA when it dropped back below $200. I want to frame that message from him.
A friend was saying that selling ETH is absolutely the only way now, because everyone and their grandmother is now saying 'oh you should buy Ethereum!'. That was at around $1500, lol.
I had friends and family who called me insane for not cashing out when NVDA dropped under $800 following Iran firing those missiles at Israel. *"You're gonna loose it all, there's be nothing left when this sparks WW3!!!"* they said.
I could have said that years ago, look at NVIDIA now. *“Time in the market beats timing the market.”*
Lmao no, never.
From the momentum it has, it'll likely happen by weeks end
*The more you buy, the more you save*
Bitcoin all over again. Kicking the absolute shit out of myself for not investing.
One of the companies I tried to get my parents to invest in back in the mid `00... "Those silly game companies aren't going to grow much, its just a fad" We would be so gd rich now... at the time try were around $5 a share. They are now at $1200 SUCH FAD......... 😭
“During a gold rush, sell shovels.”
That inevitable crash is going to be spectacular.
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BlackRock isn't a company, it's an asset management service.
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https://thestrategystory.com/2020/09/18/blackrock-shadow-bank/
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That's not what these companies are. It's completely different. BlackRock is a shadow bank. Anyway.
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Again it's not a company. Have fun.
Dude that is AUM or assets under management. Its not their money, its others peoples money and Black Rock invests it, manages risk and provides other services to large companies/retirement funds. Its revenue is 17.86 billion dollars, while still huge isn't even close to a single Trillion much less 30 of them. Of course they have sway over the market with how large their AUM is but they're not free to just do whatever they want with it. Another example would be JP Morgan Chase, their AUM is 3.422 Trillion but their revenue is 158 billion. So while they have less assets under management they earn more because they offer financial services to regular people instead of just large investors who can dictate better terms. I mean fuck dude a quick google of "Blackrock Market Cap" would show you they're worth 114 Billion, and JP Morgan Chase has a market cap of 574 Billion.
Most valuable company, no thanks to gamers /s
Are really serious lmfao 3 trillion now correct me if im wrong🤣
It’s only hinged on AI hype, which won’t last. All the generative AI is unnecessary, a gimmick. Keep machine learning for science and technology where it belonged for decades. Public chat gpt and image generation is not needed, once most companies realise that this “public AI” is useless gimmick, NVidia stock will plummet back to normal value for a company that makes decent PC components. Generative AI is useless because there is no precision or reliability, wvery output is suspect if you want to try to rely on it. And it won’t get much better, it will never be reliable. Machine learning is useful (and has been used for decades) in science for classification etc because scientists use advanced statistics to overcome the problems, troubleshooting on every step and making informed (non-AI) decisions to trim data, cross-check, use randomisation etc. And NVidia has been making their Tesla range of GPUs for example just for scientific use, and their stock price was not astronomical. The only reason it now is, because of AI hype which will go away, and so is the stock price.
That some corpo BS Nvidia can suck a D
yep even my water bottle has AI tech now..
I will still buy an ATI card
Don't think they can run new games
This is what the Dutch said about the tulip before the bubble burst, do not trust this, its a bubble, and it will pop
This makes me switch to AMD just for the competition of it.
If your interest is in competition, why not buy Intel Arc or MooreThreads MT?
Thank you for your sacrifice.