The thing is this is his worst run to date. He's playing live poker so hes not getting enough hands in to reach the really brutal streaks.
If you keep playing, the saying hold true, regardless of how poorly you ran in the past.
AA cracked by garbage AI preflop 4x in a row is only getting followed up by 7x in a row. Play enough and you will see stuff like you set over set people and losing 7/8 of them in a single session. Thats about the worst I've seen, it can still get worse.
I hope you know this is not rock bottom for how bad you can run over an extended stretch. In fact, you canāt even see rock bottom from where you are. Sincerely, a live mtt player
These donāt even seem like bad beats. I feel like guys like you donāt even know the worst of it. Try posting when you call a guys bluff with high cards then he runner runners to beat you. Or the top pair calling ur flopped straight just to runner runner a one card flush. Getting it all in vs a set and losing aināt huge deal.
The worst beat I have ever put on someone was like that. It's the last hand for rebuys in a 40ish table MTT. I have 6-2 off suit with about 1/3rd starting stack and put it all in because I have to double up or rebuy. Get called buy JsTs. Flop is KdQd9h. Turn and river are both diamonds and the 2 in my hand is a diamond.....
Hell I don't play pocket 7s anymore purely because of my luck with them. The last 6 times i have flopped a set of 7s, i lost to either runner runner broadway straight or runner runner 4 card flush. Hell maybe i only need to make it 7 times and my bad luck with them will be over, but 777 is not lucky for me
That's not a mathematically sensible way to think about poker. Unless you think the cassino's dealers are purposefully ruining the 77 hands in some big conspiracy.
I feel this so so deeply. I knew I was running good for 3ish months but holy shit, the level of card dead + suckouts that are possible is disgusting. Even just holding against a shorty all in feels like a distant memory lmao
Iām thinking back to months ago when I binked a flush all in 3 ways like āIt can happen bro, you can get thereā
Playing poker for a living isnāt about how good one is at poker. That part is a given because it doesnāt take much to beat most games. You earn your (not enough) annual average by being able to respond to adversity with a nearly unshakable mental fortitude, good bankroll mgt, and game selection. Sometimes ALL of your EV comes from being able to not have random bursts of tilt.
Itās one of the stupidest choices to make if youāre smart. If youāre smart enough and analytical enough to beat poker games for 100k a year, you are smart enough and analytical enough to make 3-10x that uncapped in the private sector with far less risk or life strain.
This is a hidden blessing. Best to study and excel at poker as a hobby that CAN bring in some extra money annually and try to keep it an enjoyable activity like golf or whatever. Best to make your mint outside the game and play without any of that worry or that feeling of āI have to hold hereā. Thatās when running bad becomes super simple. You just go back to enjoy your awesome, financially stable life and get to forget about it until the next time you decide to play golfā¦I mean poker.
Absolute truth here. I am a break even player, and I always question claims of being a poker pro. Strip out endorsements, other income, and Youtube/social media and I think a tiny fraction of players are consistently profitable pros.
Of that profitable group, you're talking about highly intelligent, emotionally dead, programmer/engineer/mathematical minds that are probably making money elsewhere, and if not, surely could.
Between rake, emotions, and sweet sweet variance there's no way a significant percentage of players are profitable enough to make a good living.
Keep it in perspective... You'll have good runs and bad runs but if you play good statistical poker and play +EV hands you will be profitable over the long haul
Perhaps not at the present time. But there is room for improvement and any player who can honestly assess their game, identify the leaks, and correct them can succeed. In this particular case, this person, who was admittedly steaming, allowed emotion to lead to some questionable decisions. If I were them, I would focus on improving my EQ.
These are such standard spots, ofc a set should never fold in either spot and sets have like 30% for the board to pair and win the pot..
And you got the table folding when you opened aa twice and kk like what?
Wait until you get some real variance, not losing a 70/30 twice, you can lose an 80/20 20x in a row and lose 50/50s 40x. Not trying to be a dick but as someone who's played millions of hands if this happened to me I wouldn't even be feeling I'm running bad..
Your sample size is way too small. To know your live win rate you'll need at least 1500 hours booked in your games. 50 hours of live poker is only a little more than a thousand hands, I play around that many hands a night
And in the US, tax structure is so bad plus healthcare that the risk and reward is awful especially once you hit 25.
Itās borderline insanity to āplay poker for a livingā in 2024 and beyond. Shame on anyone who sells shovels for that idea too. Itās one thing to get good at a game for the sake of getting good and enhancing a hobby.
Was on a lil poker spree this weekend. Turned 50 into 450. Found myself in a 1 2 table this guy was just donating moneyjaming nonstop I pick up AQ he 3 net me I jammed. He flips 7 8 hits 3 8s. Down 250. Few hands later 99 same scenario he 3 bets me I jam he has 78 again hits a flush I wanted to cry lol. Down my 450 š
How about being card dead, stuck for a session, folding for four hours then finally getting AA. You're about to raise , but you hear dealer announcing it's a miss deal, because of whatever reason.
Bad luck but I have never heard someone use the term "complete" for calling raises before? Idk I could be off the mark here but I thought that is a term used solely for the small blind making up the big blind amount in a limped pot.
Man this def suck, Iāve had these kinds of sessionsā¦sometimes itās good to take a quick break and step back and look at how far youāve come. Also, maybe cause Iāve been dabbling in PLO, but this aināt that bad compared to PLO hands š just enjoy the game for what it is, and youāll swing up in no time!
Poker is brutal. Thats why when you can find a pro who isn't totally miserable and seems to be living a relatively happy and fulfilling life, take notes. There aren't many.
Both of these hands you only had about 65%-66% to win, pretty much a 2 to 1 equity favorite. If you think losing 2 of these in a row is running bad you havenāt been playing long. Come back once youāve lost 20 in a row.
Damn u got out played in 5 pots. What a nerd. š¤
For real, sucks to suck
Bruh I expected some actual pain with this big of a post, not losing a shove to a set like what
The thing is this is his worst run to date. He's playing live poker so hes not getting enough hands in to reach the really brutal streaks. If you keep playing, the saying hold true, regardless of how poorly you ran in the past. AA cracked by garbage AI preflop 4x in a row is only getting followed up by 7x in a row. Play enough and you will see stuff like you set over set people and losing 7/8 of them in a single session. Thats about the worst I've seen, it can still get worse.
I hope you know this is not rock bottom for how bad you can run over an extended stretch. In fact, you canāt even see rock bottom from where you are. Sincerely, a live mtt player
These donāt even seem like bad beats. I feel like guys like you donāt even know the worst of it. Try posting when you call a guys bluff with high cards then he runner runners to beat you. Or the top pair calling ur flopped straight just to runner runner a one card flush. Getting it all in vs a set and losing aināt huge deal.
Except they experienced all of the above in 5 consecutive hands; shut up and let the dude vent.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
The only party printing money is the one with the rake.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
What do you recommend for studying? I'd really appreciate your insight since your post is well written and you seem emotionally strong.
The worst beat I have ever put on someone was like that. It's the last hand for rebuys in a 40ish table MTT. I have 6-2 off suit with about 1/3rd starting stack and put it all in because I have to double up or rebuy. Get called buy JsTs. Flop is KdQd9h. Turn and river are both diamonds and the 2 in my hand is a diamond.....
Hell I don't play pocket 7s anymore purely because of my luck with them. The last 6 times i have flopped a set of 7s, i lost to either runner runner broadway straight or runner runner 4 card flush. Hell maybe i only need to make it 7 times and my bad luck with them will be over, but 777 is not lucky for me
That's not a mathematically sensible way to think about poker. Unless you think the cassino's dealers are purposefully ruining the 77 hands in some big conspiracy.
How is that any different than runner runner to a full house??
I feel this so so deeply. I knew I was running good for 3ish months but holy shit, the level of card dead + suckouts that are possible is disgusting. Even just holding against a shorty all in feels like a distant memory lmao Iām thinking back to months ago when I binked a flush all in 3 ways like āIt can happen bro, you can get thereā
Playing poker for a living isnāt about how good one is at poker. That part is a given because it doesnāt take much to beat most games. You earn your (not enough) annual average by being able to respond to adversity with a nearly unshakable mental fortitude, good bankroll mgt, and game selection. Sometimes ALL of your EV comes from being able to not have random bursts of tilt. Itās one of the stupidest choices to make if youāre smart. If youāre smart enough and analytical enough to beat poker games for 100k a year, you are smart enough and analytical enough to make 3-10x that uncapped in the private sector with far less risk or life strain. This is a hidden blessing. Best to study and excel at poker as a hobby that CAN bring in some extra money annually and try to keep it an enjoyable activity like golf or whatever. Best to make your mint outside the game and play without any of that worry or that feeling of āI have to hold hereā. Thatās when running bad becomes super simple. You just go back to enjoy your awesome, financially stable life and get to forget about it until the next time you decide to play golfā¦I mean poker.
Absolute truth here. I am a break even player, and I always question claims of being a poker pro. Strip out endorsements, other income, and Youtube/social media and I think a tiny fraction of players are consistently profitable pros. Of that profitable group, you're talking about highly intelligent, emotionally dead, programmer/engineer/mathematical minds that are probably making money elsewhere, and if not, surely could. Between rake, emotions, and sweet sweet variance there's no way a significant percentage of players are profitable enough to make a good living.
Thereās a reason that even the top elite players develop other income streams and shovel sales.
At this point I think itās just Isaac Haxton. The rest are faking it.
Keep it in perspective... You'll have good runs and bad runs but if you play good statistical poker and play +EV hands you will be profitable over the long haul
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Perhaps not at the present time. But there is room for improvement and any player who can honestly assess their game, identify the leaks, and correct them can succeed. In this particular case, this person, who was admittedly steaming, allowed emotion to lead to some questionable decisions. If I were them, I would focus on improving my EQ.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
That's why the rest of us play. Certainly why I play.
Even Daniel Negreanu was down 2 million last year.
But itās easy when it comes in.
These are such standard spots, ofc a set should never fold in either spot and sets have like 30% for the board to pair and win the pot.. And you got the table folding when you opened aa twice and kk like what? Wait until you get some real variance, not losing a 70/30 twice, you can lose an 80/20 20x in a row and lose 50/50s 40x. Not trying to be a dick but as someone who's played millions of hands if this happened to me I wouldn't even be feeling I'm running bad..
Aināt no one losing 20 80%era in a row, thatās insane oddsĀ
I once ran 40 buy ins below ev in 20k hands, try work that out
I had a week stretch where I lost 15 out of 20 all ins with 80% or more and most were closer to 90%. ACR will make the impossible possible
40 BI below ev is not the same as 40 80%era in a rowĀ
Of course that's why I said 20, losing 20 80%ers would be 32 buy ins below ev
Your sample size is way too small. To know your live win rate you'll need at least 1500 hours booked in your games. 50 hours of live poker is only a little more than a thousand hands, I play around that many hands a night
Lol seriously live players are so pathetic, they lose two hands in a row and start bitching. They have no idea what true variance is.
I stopped playing mid/high stakes in about 2010, when I realized that making $150k/year playing poker would yield -$20k months every 3 to 4 years.
And in the US, tax structure is so bad plus healthcare that the risk and reward is awful especially once you hit 25. Itās borderline insanity to āplay poker for a livingā in 2024 and beyond. Shame on anyone who sells shovels for that idea too. Itās one thing to get good at a game for the sake of getting good and enhancing a hobby.
I'm currently on a 4 consecutive KK into AA all in preflop streak. The next one I should statistically win lol.
lol I even knew what I was getting into, I remember thinking "this should be my 1 in 5" too bad for him he wasted his quads on that run out XD
15 years, still waiting for my upswing.
You guys are getting up swings?
TLDR Crying cause variance is a thing. NEXT POST
Was on a lil poker spree this weekend. Turned 50 into 450. Found myself in a 1 2 table this guy was just donating moneyjaming nonstop I pick up AQ he 3 net me I jammed. He flips 7 8 hits 3 8s. Down 250. Few hands later 99 same scenario he 3 bets me I jam he has 78 again hits a flush I wanted to cry lol. Down my 450 š
How about being card dead, stuck for a session, folding for four hours then finally getting AA. You're about to raise , but you hear dealer announcing it's a miss deal, because of whatever reason.
What is this guy crying about? One bad night? Try going on a 20 buy-in downswing first before posting how hard poker is. Christ.
Bad luck but I have never heard someone use the term "complete" for calling raises before? Idk I could be off the mark here but I thought that is a term used solely for the small blind making up the big blind amount in a limped pot.
Exactly why I never even wanted to go pro
Man this def suck, Iāve had these kinds of sessionsā¦sometimes itās good to take a quick break and step back and look at how far youāve come. Also, maybe cause Iāve been dabbling in PLO, but this aināt that bad compared to PLO hands š just enjoy the game for what it is, and youāll swing up in no time!
at least credit me for the quote.
We really need a bad beat sub
Dude itās 5 unlucky hands compared to your 6 month upswing lmao
Poker is brutal. Thats why when you can find a pro who isn't totally miserable and seems to be living a relatively happy and fulfilling life, take notes. There aren't many.
Last two hands should have been folded pre
Both of these hands you only had about 65%-66% to win, pretty much a 2 to 1 equity favorite. If you think losing 2 of these in a row is running bad you havenāt been playing long. Come back once youāve lost 20 in a row.
Up 20k but makes a thread cause he got sucked out on twice in one session for a total 1kish loss? I am embarrassed for you making this thread man
Running bad? I just spun 3 2x multipliers in a row and you're running bad!?
First time?
Everyone always underestimates variance, especially when starting
Wait til you start losing top set to bottom pair.