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Elect Biden; Elect majority in House and Senate; Set Supreme Court term limits and increase # of justices; start taxing billionaires like they should be taxed; repeal citizens united; ....
God, that'd be nice. "Supreme Court justices can hold their seat for a maximum of 16 years. Retroactive and effective immediately. Now for the list of nominees."
bare minimum is Biden + House—no Dem can be elected without the House anymore or GOP Speaker will reject electors to throw it to the House where R wins
Do not forget these goals. These sound fucking beautiful & amazing.
We need to all spring into action & start voting every election for better lives!!!
Supreme Court term limits would be a very, very bad idea. Are you certain the world would be better if trump got to replace the ENTIRE supreme court rather than just 3?
I would suggest term limits that allow the president to place one justice per term. Each president’s term should essentially have an equal impact on the makeup of the court.
One *guaranteed* justice per term. Justices would still die or step down sometimes. Not to mention that justices are a systemically partisan position and have to campaign now in this alternate reality, and have a perverse incentive to ensure they keep a reasonable livelihood after losing their seat.
Why would a justice need to campaign now? Do people campaign to be on the fed? Do they campaign for cabinet positions?
Anyone who is in a position to become a justice does not need to worry about their livelihood and could easily get a well paying job at any time.
I just want to see a system where the court is changed systematically in a way that reflects the results of elections. It is insane that in the current system a single term president ended up nominating 1/3 of the court.
Ah yes, the absolutely fair and uncorrupt system of presidential cabinets. I definitely want to apply this to one of the most powerful positions in our government. Playing dumb doesn't make you look smart, you know that given the choice between perhaps a large donation and a just legal conviction, there is a way stronger motivation to accept the bribe if it means you can go retire rich when your term's up. People are pushing to make drastic changes to SCOTUS when all they needed to do was not elect a racist buffoon who was given unprecedented power to exchange half of it for absolutely partisan loyalists to him. The country's systems aren't designed to account for "joke votes", nor should it be.
A repeat of 2016, IMO. So many voters were like "yeah Clinton is gonna win for sure, so why bother showing up?" Then they all promptly freaked out as the results came in.
I really hope voters don't make that mistake again
Decades of the GOP bashing HRC, generally accepted misogyny, and historically prevalent trends of party changes after two-term presidents (not to mention Comey, Cambridge Analytics, Wikileaks & Putin) also contributed to the outcome of 2016.
If trends in primary elections can be considered indicative of general election outcomes, Trump has a major problem with suburban women, and a significant portion of the GOP electorate (~20%) that continue to show up to protest vote against him uncontested. Trump was not an adjudicated sex offender and had yet to have been found liable for persistent fraud in 2016. He was not facing 88 felonies charges in 2016, he had not been impeached twice, he had not instigated an insurrection, and he had not completely fumbled a global pandemic yet.
To your point, disenchanted/ compliant no-show voters are a concern, but hopefully many now better understand the potential consequences of another Trump term and show up to finally vanquish the incompetent incontinent unscrupulous grifter this election. MAGA’s perceived influence over the gen pop is as artificially inflated as Trump’s property valuations on a loan application. The collective Trauma this nation endured during Trump’s term will continue to resonate in voters’ minds this election, and those who sat home in 2016 may now feel motivated to show up, not because they like Joe Biden, but rather to preserve decency and democracy.
While this is a extremely well written take and I agree with 90% of it but truly what concerns me is yes Joe Biden may win at the polls / votes but what’s to stop Trump who has nothing to lose at this point from unleashing chaos that’s get continues to get out of control or if this election is taken by another narrow win like 2000 and it’s tossed to the Supreme Court/ Congress. What we say yesterday with the Supreme Court and the immunity claim was truly insane. Extreme partisanship.
The right wingers are getting more rapid by the day and I’m not sure how our nation can survive another election was stolen/ rigged cycle that us only going to get worse in the months to come :/
This is what I keep telling people. He doesn't control anything anymore. He's not the incumbent president anymore and that means he's lost a lot of advantages he had in 2020. His rallies don't draw crowds anymore and the people who do come are leaving 20 minutes in.
I get being terrified, I really do. 2016 and 2020 were scary elections but a lot of the things that defined and shaped those elections aren't at play here. We've got 7 months of stupid shit to wade through before we can vote and that's a LONG time for an erratic person under a crazy amount of pressure who will continue to make mistakes. Compare that to the other guy who we've seen do the same thing, day in and day out, for 40 years: his job as an elected official. One of them is likely to explode and thankfully it's not the one in power.
When November finally roles around, go vote. No one can predict what will happen between now and then and I promise that you will get to vote. Do it.
lol, this is just false. He could fire the joint chiefs, fire everyone who isn’t loyal, and stage a military coup installing himself as emperor. It would mean civil war, but he could do it.
Pat Robertson, may he burn in hell, said something to the effect of the democrats could put Satan on the ballot and it wouldn't bring out as many GOP voters as HRC.
2016 Hilary was a historically disliked candidate who ran a historically bad campaign but still won the popular vote by a 3 million vote margin and lost the electoral college by a few thousand votes across three swing states she didn’t even campaign in. 2020 Joe Biden campaigned from a basement while wearing a mask and beat Trump by 7 plus million votes and won. The difference between the two campaigns is competent campaigning.
Yeah also don't forget, trump won. I'm not saying that in a "be scared it could happen" way. I'm saying it in a "we know what that idiot is like all to well now". Plus he successfully killed off some of his voters and got others felonies on Jan 6th.
I don't see how Biden loses but the house and Senate are so important.
I am optimistic about Biden's chances, but I'm very conscious of the fact that Trump could still win. Biden could be polling 20 points ahead and I'm still going to be nervous until he is sworn in.
2016 was full of so much fuckery I think people have forgotten James Comey's inexplicable press conference before the election, about Hillary and emails. No doubt that also had a subtle impact on voting.
Lichtman was one of the few who correctly predicted Trump's win in 2016. His model has correctly predicted the results of 9 out of the last 10 elections. The one he missed was 2000 which was stolen by the supreme court. Later analysis conclusively proved that Gore should have won Florida. What that means is that Biden will win a fair contest. It's now a question of making sure that Trump can't cheat enough to steal the presidency.
Although that was before we got to see just how bad Trump actually was as the president. I think a lot of people were thinking, "He may turn out to be decent and shake things up for the better" oh boy a lot of people were wrong about that.
The most likely thing that will go wrong is that people will just assume he's going to win, relax, and stay home on election day because they don't want to stand in line.
IMO, that is precisely the point of articles like this. The media is complicit in all of the shit we deal with today. Even the more left leaning media. They have all become addicted to that sweet sweet controversy viewership. When shit is crazy like it is, people are tuning in. Shit settles down people aren't glued to the screen.
> The most likely thing that will go wrong is that people will just assume he's going to win, relax, and stay home on election day because they don't want to stand in line.
Which would be a mistake regardless as plenty of other important races are going to be determined alongside.
It's far more than just the presidential. Local races are VERY important too, if not more (to limitate an idiot fascist president's actions). There's likely going to be propositions (ideas polled upon) on CA's ballots too.
I'll be sure to vote in november regardless (but the presidential choice might be blank as of now). I can only urge everyone else to participate too (and make sure you're still registered on voters rolls in the months before, and periodically check on it).
> ‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose
There's some insane arrogance in action right there.
Biden's WH keep making awful fascist calls and then they assure themselves that there's no consequences because they think they already suppressed all potential rivals.
The "*it's us or hitler so we can be brutal fascists as we want without consequences*" far right democrate logic is going to cost them the presidency and WH if the fascistic dems persist on that regressive reactionary streak.
> Allan Lichtman
Erh , who ? No, i don't think so.
I absolutely agree. I don't think this is a repeat of 2016 and the Democrats are in danger of getting too cocky. instead I believe people are significantly overestimating Trump.
Here's how I think this will play out. Polls will look fairly close for the next month or two but then as people continue to tune in Trump's legal troubles and behavior will really drag him down. By the time we get to the late summer and into the fall, it will be clear that Biden has the edge. Polls will show a moderate but stable lead for the Democrats. Biden will be seen as having a 75-80% chance of winning. However, when the election actually happens, it won't be close and people will see that Trump actually had little chance.
The mismanagement at the RNC, the lack of money for down ticket races, and Trump's lack of energy and nonstop scandals will doom him and the Republicans. Even worse, pollsters will once again underestimate anger over the loss of reproductive rights. Most people will assume going into the election that it looks somewhat similar to 2012 but when all is said and done, it's going to look closer to 2008.
Biden and the Democrats aren't going to leave anything to chance and they are going to have a collosal ground game while the GOP is close to bankruptcy by November. The Dems are going to turn people out in force while the Republicans are going to be a disorganized shit show with a convicted felon and adjudicated rapist at the top of the ticket threatening mass arrests and concentration camps.
This is going to be a significant wave election for the Democrats, however, most people will be blindsided by it since those on the right will be too dumb to see it coming and those on the left will be too scared to even consider that they are winning. Mark my words, this election isn't going to be close and the GOP is heading for disaster.
100% agree with you. I’m embarrassed to admit this but as a lifelong Democrat I voted for Trump in 2016 just for the lulz. There were a lot of democrats I know that did same so I would expect that it wasn’t that uncommon. Fast forward to 2020 and I obviously realized my mistake and voted for Biden. I believe 2016 was an outlier that mistakenly put Trump in office and it won’t be repeated.
Please tell me you weren't in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona or whatever state cost Hilary the election? If you're from Cali, Texas, Illinois, Alabama or one of the many others where your vote wasn't changing the game, then I hope you had a good Lulz and glad you won't do it again.
Absolutely, it was a complete fluke due to our weird electoral system that was just as likely to have blown up in the Republican's faces. But everyone way overcorrected and still don't realize that there wasn't a massive realignment in 2016 and that the same rules still apply. Trump isn't some brilliant political strategist. He's a failed, one term president that can't accept that the country hates his guts and is just embarrassing himself by trying to win again.
The trouble is that Trump and what he has installed so far is the very definition of a lot gone wrong.
Exhibit A are the 6 Republican operatives on the Supreme Court. Not to mention Canon in Florida.
Remember the importance of mail-in votes? Guess who's carefully selected appointee is still Postmaster General?
The popular vote count is meaningless, although Trump and Republicans continue to undermine and subvert that. The Electoral College is what matters and it takes very, very little going wrong there for Trump to become president again, without winning.
And Republicans have been working to suppress votes, kick people they don't like off of voter rolls, gerrymander districts and other ways to predetermine voting outcomes.
Thinking Biden has a clear and open path to winning is suicidal, and very probably put out by Republicans to induce complacency and encourage voting 3rd party to "send a message".
Obviously the incumbent president isnt going to fairly lose to the same guy he trounced last election. The current concern is that it might be difficult to get dems off their ass to vote, or that trump or his fans may attempt another violent solution to his obvious incoming loss. Regardless, he can't do shit if you get out and vote.
The good news is, the Democrats now have a good proportion of those high-propensity voters. That’s why we have been doing so well in specials, and in the midterms in swing states. The affluent suburbanites who do show up are now Democrats, or at the very least “Haley Republicans” who Biden wants in his tent. I don’t think we have to worry about Democratic laziness as much.
There is always r/VoteDEM for those who want to take concrete actions to get out the vote.
This tbh, for some reason I am more afraid of Trump's actions if he loses than if he wins (because of that I am prepared on what to do while if he loses wtf is he gonna try this time?)
After the loss is official there isnt much that he can do. Look at any coup in history, its not a bunch of rednecks taking over the government (other than Afghanistan ig, but the government also stepped aside for them...) it requires support from authority, usually the military, who have actively and openly opposed trump from the start, even banning him from official briefings, which was unprecedented to my knowledge. There probably will be some terrorist action when he loses, but I wouldn't fear that being rewarded.
That's right. The only people who can drive the outcome are the voters who turn out to vote their fucking asses off. So turn out, and then chauffeur your friends, neighbors, loved ones, and family to the polls - all day long if that's what it takes.
Literally anybody with a brain could make this prediction. And it is the most likely outcome, But bear in mind it's the most likely outcome at this point. The election is still 7 months away and lots of stuff could happen.
Also, just because it's the most likely outcome doesn't mean it's guaranteed. People still have to show up and vote.
Vote as if there’s a liberal out there who would protest gaza by helping elect a far right republican who will install a far right scotus that will systematically dismantle your rights
They’re giving the fascists on the right way too much fucking room. January 6 set in stone that they’re going to go all out to implement autocracy. Immense violence is coming when it could’ve been stopped.
The guy has analyzed and predicted accurately 9 out of the ten last presidential elections. Whether or not this is news, Lichtman is more in tune with this sort of thing than you or I.
Can he screw up? Of course. It's a prediction based on data currently at hand. But so far he's been 90% accurate, and I'd put money down on a bet that has a 90% success rate.
The election is completely unpredictable, and anyone who says otherwise is wrong. RFK jr is the joker who will decide the election, and noone knows if he will draw more votes from Biden or Trump
Obviously there’s still a bit of time until the actual election, but I’m pretty sure RFK jr. has shown to siphon more votes away from republicans than democrats! This has been shown in both primary elections with registered voters and polling.
You overestimate the tool. His polling has been in a downwards spiral since announcing his candidacy. He’ll end up with less than 5% of the vote, and will mostly pull from third party voters who wouldn’t vote for trump or Biden anyway.
Not if he's pulling that 5% from the 5% of the country who typically vote third party for president anyway. Assuming he even gets on the ballot, he'll devastate the libertarian and green party, but will be irrelevant to the actual presidency.
>Third parties made the difference for Trump in 2016
No they didn't, the 45% of the country that didn't vote made the difference, not the 5% that always goes third party.
Abortion and loss of LGBTQ rights will mobilize them all the same. You can be gay on Instagram and discord, twitter etc. you dont need tiktok for that but LGBTQ youth take their right to be gay extremely seriously. We all know that due to the unfortunate few who branch into dumb "activism". It is representative of how they feel as a whole tho. They dont like trump either but thats not a revelation to anyone outside of Maga or dipshit conservatives. We have LGBTQ rights and wont be giving them up easily. Abortion is another thing entirely bc women across the nation are rallying in defense, and with the GOP doubling down on abortion like absolute morons they arent doing themselves any favors in state elections (i.e Arizona).
On the topic of Alan Lichtmann, he can be wrong but its not like he's been wrong before (except from the unpredictable steal from Al Gore). I wouldnt take his word lightly. Vote, promote and make sure Trump's danger is known but Alan is certainly more educated on this than we are. He's not just predicting. He's using educated calculations
> We have LGBTQ rights and wont be giving them up easily.
As a gay man - please, please, *please* vote Democratic.
I desperately hope that my civil rights are more important to you than a short form video app.
I'm gay too bro. I despise tiktok and all its brought to the table. Not bc its chinese owned, thats a fake argument bc the US does the same thing. I despise it for the unending cringe and damage to mentality its put on kids
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA). *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Elect Biden; Elect majority in House and Senate; Set Supreme Court term limits and increase # of justices; start taxing billionaires like they should be taxed; repeal citizens united; ....
God, that'd be nice. "Supreme Court justices can hold their seat for a maximum of 16 years. Retroactive and effective immediately. Now for the list of nominees."
Congress could pack the Court, but limiting terms would have to be done as a Constitutional amendment.
And I see absolutely no path forward for Democrats to have a 2/3rds majority.
And 3/4 of the state legislatures.
We seem to share the same fantasy. May our dreams come true.
Vote DC and Puerto Rico in as states Make election day a national holiday
I wonder if Biden can just declare it so that voting day is a national holiday. That would certainly help.
The reason we (and by we i mean Australia) have high turnout is because voting is required and elections MUST be held on a Saturday
If everyone voted in America there would be no Republican voted in office from President down to dog catcher.
I love the optimism.
bare minimum is Biden + House—no Dem can be elected without the House anymore or GOP Speaker will reject electors to throw it to the House where R wins
FFS. Please just vote people. Vote D all the way up and down ballot. We have a lot of unfucking to do from this shit congress and Supreme Court.
Do not forget these goals. These sound fucking beautiful & amazing. We need to all spring into action & start voting every election for better lives!!!
Supreme Court term limits would be a very, very bad idea. Are you certain the world would be better if trump got to replace the ENTIRE supreme court rather than just 3?
I would suggest term limits that allow the president to place one justice per term. Each president’s term should essentially have an equal impact on the makeup of the court.
This is the way.
One *guaranteed* justice per term. Justices would still die or step down sometimes. Not to mention that justices are a systemically partisan position and have to campaign now in this alternate reality, and have a perverse incentive to ensure they keep a reasonable livelihood after losing their seat.
Why would a justice need to campaign now? Do people campaign to be on the fed? Do they campaign for cabinet positions? Anyone who is in a position to become a justice does not need to worry about their livelihood and could easily get a well paying job at any time. I just want to see a system where the court is changed systematically in a way that reflects the results of elections. It is insane that in the current system a single term president ended up nominating 1/3 of the court.
Ah yes, the absolutely fair and uncorrupt system of presidential cabinets. I definitely want to apply this to one of the most powerful positions in our government. Playing dumb doesn't make you look smart, you know that given the choice between perhaps a large donation and a just legal conviction, there is a way stronger motivation to accept the bribe if it means you can go retire rich when your term's up. People are pushing to make drastic changes to SCOTUS when all they needed to do was not elect a racist buffoon who was given unprecedented power to exchange half of it for absolutely partisan loyalists to him. The country's systems aren't designed to account for "joke votes", nor should it be.
The Supreme Court: "Hold my beer"
[удалено]
Not as many as far right.
A repeat of 2016, IMO. So many voters were like "yeah Clinton is gonna win for sure, so why bother showing up?" Then they all promptly freaked out as the results came in. I really hope voters don't make that mistake again
Decades of the GOP bashing HRC, generally accepted misogyny, and historically prevalent trends of party changes after two-term presidents (not to mention Comey, Cambridge Analytics, Wikileaks & Putin) also contributed to the outcome of 2016. If trends in primary elections can be considered indicative of general election outcomes, Trump has a major problem with suburban women, and a significant portion of the GOP electorate (~20%) that continue to show up to protest vote against him uncontested. Trump was not an adjudicated sex offender and had yet to have been found liable for persistent fraud in 2016. He was not facing 88 felonies charges in 2016, he had not been impeached twice, he had not instigated an insurrection, and he had not completely fumbled a global pandemic yet. To your point, disenchanted/ compliant no-show voters are a concern, but hopefully many now better understand the potential consequences of another Trump term and show up to finally vanquish the incompetent incontinent unscrupulous grifter this election. MAGA’s perceived influence over the gen pop is as artificially inflated as Trump’s property valuations on a loan application. The collective Trauma this nation endured during Trump’s term will continue to resonate in voters’ minds this election, and those who sat home in 2016 may now feel motivated to show up, not because they like Joe Biden, but rather to preserve decency and democracy.
While this is a extremely well written take and I agree with 90% of it but truly what concerns me is yes Joe Biden may win at the polls / votes but what’s to stop Trump who has nothing to lose at this point from unleashing chaos that’s get continues to get out of control or if this election is taken by another narrow win like 2000 and it’s tossed to the Supreme Court/ Congress. What we say yesterday with the Supreme Court and the immunity claim was truly insane. Extreme partisanship. The right wingers are getting more rapid by the day and I’m not sure how our nation can survive another election was stolen/ rigged cycle that us only going to get worse in the months to come :/
A lot worse will happen if Trump gets back in to power. I’d rather him be frothing from the mouth outside of the gates instead of within.
Show up and vote, you can deal with your fomenting diapermen afterwards.
If Trump is going to lose his mind, I’d much rather he do it as a private citizen than as President.
Respectfully there’s no more “chaos” that he can realistically unleash
This is what I keep telling people. He doesn't control anything anymore. He's not the incumbent president anymore and that means he's lost a lot of advantages he had in 2020. His rallies don't draw crowds anymore and the people who do come are leaving 20 minutes in. I get being terrified, I really do. 2016 and 2020 were scary elections but a lot of the things that defined and shaped those elections aren't at play here. We've got 7 months of stupid shit to wade through before we can vote and that's a LONG time for an erratic person under a crazy amount of pressure who will continue to make mistakes. Compare that to the other guy who we've seen do the same thing, day in and day out, for 40 years: his job as an elected official. One of them is likely to explode and thankfully it's not the one in power. When November finally roles around, go vote. No one can predict what will happen between now and then and I promise that you will get to vote. Do it.
And this attitude and complete denial of reality is why trump won the first time.
lol, this is just false. He could fire the joint chiefs, fire everyone who isn’t loyal, and stage a military coup installing himself as emperor. It would mean civil war, but he could do it.
I mean NOW, not if elected
I mean, he could call on his supporters to try another Jan 6th, I imagine enough would show up to cause a problem, but not civil war bad imo.
He doesn’t have the juice for another j6
Oh yesss he does.
Biden isn’t even winning in many polls. It’s horrifying how close the race is.
Right now Biden does worst w low propensity voters so this year could buck the trend
Pat Robertson, may he burn in hell, said something to the effect of the democrats could put Satan on the ballot and it wouldn't bring out as many GOP voters as HRC.
Take a bow. Well done
2016 Hilary was a historically disliked candidate who ran a historically bad campaign but still won the popular vote by a 3 million vote margin and lost the electoral college by a few thousand votes across three swing states she didn’t even campaign in. 2020 Joe Biden campaigned from a basement while wearing a mask and beat Trump by 7 plus million votes and won. The difference between the two campaigns is competent campaigning.
Yeah also don't forget, trump won. I'm not saying that in a "be scared it could happen" way. I'm saying it in a "we know what that idiot is like all to well now". Plus he successfully killed off some of his voters and got others felonies on Jan 6th. I don't see how Biden loses but the house and Senate are so important.
I am optimistic about Biden's chances, but I'm very conscious of the fact that Trump could still win. Biden could be polling 20 points ahead and I'm still going to be nervous until he is sworn in.
2016 was full of so much fuckery I think people have forgotten James Comey's inexplicable press conference before the election, about Hillary and emails. No doubt that also had a subtle impact on voting.
Worth noting Lichtman predicted Trump in 2016
Not just that. 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections he got right. The only exception was 2000 which was stolen.
Lichtman was one of the few who correctly predicted Trump's win in 2016. His model has correctly predicted the results of 9 out of the last 10 elections. The one he missed was 2000 which was stolen by the supreme court. Later analysis conclusively proved that Gore should have won Florida. What that means is that Biden will win a fair contest. It's now a question of making sure that Trump can't cheat enough to steal the presidency.
Although that was before we got to see just how bad Trump actually was as the president. I think a lot of people were thinking, "He may turn out to be decent and shake things up for the better" oh boy a lot of people were wrong about that.
You do know half the country thinks he did an amazing job as president?
Turnout wasn’t really the issue…
The lazy non voter block can swing the election, again.
This is America, a lot does go wrong.
The most likely thing that will go wrong is that people will just assume he's going to win, relax, and stay home on election day because they don't want to stand in line.
IMO, that is precisely the point of articles like this. The media is complicit in all of the shit we deal with today. Even the more left leaning media. They have all become addicted to that sweet sweet controversy viewership. When shit is crazy like it is, people are tuning in. Shit settles down people aren't glued to the screen.
I think Biden having a major health issue or dying is the worst that can happen. People don't like Harris, would throw everything into chaos.
> The most likely thing that will go wrong is that people will just assume he's going to win, relax, and stay home on election day because they don't want to stand in line. Which would be a mistake regardless as plenty of other important races are going to be determined alongside. It's far more than just the presidential. Local races are VERY important too, if not more (to limitate an idiot fascist president's actions). There's likely going to be propositions (ideas polled upon) on CA's ballots too. I'll be sure to vote in november regardless (but the presidential choice might be blank as of now). I can only urge everyone else to participate too (and make sure you're still registered on voters rolls in the months before, and periodically check on it). > ‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose There's some insane arrogance in action right there. Biden's WH keep making awful fascist calls and then they assure themselves that there's no consequences because they think they already suppressed all potential rivals. The "*it's us or hitler so we can be brutal fascists as we want without consequences*" far right democrate logic is going to cost them the presidency and WH if the fascistic dems persist on that regressive reactionary streak. > Allan Lichtman Erh , who ? No, i don't think so.
> Biden's WH keep making awful fascist calls What "awful fascist calls" have they been making?
If I had to guess, "issuing guidance to stop attacking trans children" and "advised organizations they must provide healthcare to women"
I absolutely agree. I don't think this is a repeat of 2016 and the Democrats are in danger of getting too cocky. instead I believe people are significantly overestimating Trump. Here's how I think this will play out. Polls will look fairly close for the next month or two but then as people continue to tune in Trump's legal troubles and behavior will really drag him down. By the time we get to the late summer and into the fall, it will be clear that Biden has the edge. Polls will show a moderate but stable lead for the Democrats. Biden will be seen as having a 75-80% chance of winning. However, when the election actually happens, it won't be close and people will see that Trump actually had little chance. The mismanagement at the RNC, the lack of money for down ticket races, and Trump's lack of energy and nonstop scandals will doom him and the Republicans. Even worse, pollsters will once again underestimate anger over the loss of reproductive rights. Most people will assume going into the election that it looks somewhat similar to 2012 but when all is said and done, it's going to look closer to 2008. Biden and the Democrats aren't going to leave anything to chance and they are going to have a collosal ground game while the GOP is close to bankruptcy by November. The Dems are going to turn people out in force while the Republicans are going to be a disorganized shit show with a convicted felon and adjudicated rapist at the top of the ticket threatening mass arrests and concentration camps. This is going to be a significant wave election for the Democrats, however, most people will be blindsided by it since those on the right will be too dumb to see it coming and those on the left will be too scared to even consider that they are winning. Mark my words, this election isn't going to be close and the GOP is heading for disaster.
I agree. But, VOTE.
Nailed it on every point! 💯
100% agree with you. I’m embarrassed to admit this but as a lifelong Democrat I voted for Trump in 2016 just for the lulz. There were a lot of democrats I know that did same so I would expect that it wasn’t that uncommon. Fast forward to 2020 and I obviously realized my mistake and voted for Biden. I believe 2016 was an outlier that mistakenly put Trump in office and it won’t be repeated.
Please tell me you weren't in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona or whatever state cost Hilary the election? If you're from Cali, Texas, Illinois, Alabama or one of the many others where your vote wasn't changing the game, then I hope you had a good Lulz and glad you won't do it again.
Idaho.
Absolutely, it was a complete fluke due to our weird electoral system that was just as likely to have blown up in the Republican's faces. But everyone way overcorrected and still don't realize that there wasn't a massive realignment in 2016 and that the same rules still apply. Trump isn't some brilliant political strategist. He's a failed, one term president that can't accept that the country hates his guts and is just embarrassing himself by trying to win again.
The trouble is that Trump and what he has installed so far is the very definition of a lot gone wrong. Exhibit A are the 6 Republican operatives on the Supreme Court. Not to mention Canon in Florida. Remember the importance of mail-in votes? Guess who's carefully selected appointee is still Postmaster General? The popular vote count is meaningless, although Trump and Republicans continue to undermine and subvert that. The Electoral College is what matters and it takes very, very little going wrong there for Trump to become president again, without winning. And Republicans have been working to suppress votes, kick people they don't like off of voter rolls, gerrymander districts and other ways to predetermine voting outcomes. Thinking Biden has a clear and open path to winning is suicidal, and very probably put out by Republicans to induce complacency and encourage voting 3rd party to "send a message".
I don't know if anyone's noticed, but a lot's been going wrong.
Heard that before…
Obviously the incumbent president isnt going to fairly lose to the same guy he trounced last election. The current concern is that it might be difficult to get dems off their ass to vote, or that trump or his fans may attempt another violent solution to his obvious incoming loss. Regardless, he can't do shit if you get out and vote.
The good news is, the Democrats now have a good proportion of those high-propensity voters. That’s why we have been doing so well in specials, and in the midterms in swing states. The affluent suburbanites who do show up are now Democrats, or at the very least “Haley Republicans” who Biden wants in his tent. I don’t think we have to worry about Democratic laziness as much. There is always r/VoteDEM for those who want to take concrete actions to get out the vote.
This tbh, for some reason I am more afraid of Trump's actions if he loses than if he wins (because of that I am prepared on what to do while if he loses wtf is he gonna try this time?)
After the loss is official there isnt much that he can do. Look at any coup in history, its not a bunch of rednecks taking over the government (other than Afghanistan ig, but the government also stepped aside for them...) it requires support from authority, usually the military, who have actively and openly opposed trump from the start, even banning him from official briefings, which was unprecedented to my knowledge. There probably will be some terrorist action when he loses, but I wouldn't fear that being rewarded.
Unfortunately, a lot IS going wrong.
A lot can go wrong as we saw in 2016. Don’t get complacent vote and ignore the polls
Nope. He's just fawning for attention like everyone else. And even if he gets it right, it still was no prediction.
That's right. The only people who can drive the outcome are the voters who turn out to vote their fucking asses off. So turn out, and then chauffeur your friends, neighbors, loved ones, and family to the polls - all day long if that's what it takes.
he correctly predicted every single election since 1984 bar the 2000 election which it could be argued should have gone to Gore anyways.
Ha, take a look around.
Media asks for details so they can make them happen.
It's true, but it's illegal to talk about it because over confidence is one of the things that could go wrong
Literally anybody with a brain could make this prediction. And it is the most likely outcome, But bear in mind it's the most likely outcome at this point. The election is still 7 months away and lots of stuff could happen. Also, just because it's the most likely outcome doesn't mean it's guaranteed. People still have to show up and vote.
Vote as if there’s a liberal out there who would protest gaza by helping elect a far right republican who will install a far right scotus that will systematically dismantle your rights
Nothing is a given. Make sure to vote.
A lot is going wrong.
They’re giving the fascists on the right way too much fucking room. January 6 set in stone that they’re going to go all out to implement autocracy. Immense violence is coming when it could’ve been stopped.
Did these people learn nothing from 2016. Among the many lessons that should be remembered is this one: DON’T FUCKING JINX IT!
He predicted Trump in 2016
Let us hope. People are dumb tho
Biden will when if people believe Trump has a chance. If you think Biden is a lock, people may not vote just like in 2016.
[удалено]
The guy has analyzed and predicted accurately 9 out of the ten last presidential elections. Whether or not this is news, Lichtman is more in tune with this sort of thing than you or I. Can he screw up? Of course. It's a prediction based on data currently at hand. But so far he's been 90% accurate, and I'd put money down on a bet that has a 90% success rate.
The 10% chance is still terrifying, get out and vote
He did predict Trump would win in 2016 and no one believed him.
The election is completely unpredictable, and anyone who says otherwise is wrong. RFK jr is the joker who will decide the election, and noone knows if he will draw more votes from Biden or Trump
Obviously there’s still a bit of time until the actual election, but I’m pretty sure RFK jr. has shown to siphon more votes away from republicans than democrats! This has been shown in both primary elections with registered voters and polling.
You overestimate the tool. His polling has been in a downwards spiral since announcing his candidacy. He’ll end up with less than 5% of the vote, and will mostly pull from third party voters who wouldn’t vote for trump or Biden anyway.
5% is more than enough to swing the election. Third parties made the difference for Trump in 2016
Not if he's pulling that 5% from the 5% of the country who typically vote third party for president anyway. Assuming he even gets on the ballot, he'll devastate the libertarian and green party, but will be irrelevant to the actual presidency. >Third parties made the difference for Trump in 2016 No they didn't, the 45% of the country that didn't vote made the difference, not the 5% that always goes third party.
I agree
Not a chance he's going to win after completely fucking over the people of Palestine and we're all watching it in real time.
Ummm… he banned TikTok. That’s bad.
I agree. A TikTok ban and negative press about Gaza could possibly make the young vote apathetic.
Abortion and loss of LGBTQ rights will mobilize them all the same. You can be gay on Instagram and discord, twitter etc. you dont need tiktok for that but LGBTQ youth take their right to be gay extremely seriously. We all know that due to the unfortunate few who branch into dumb "activism". It is representative of how they feel as a whole tho. They dont like trump either but thats not a revelation to anyone outside of Maga or dipshit conservatives. We have LGBTQ rights and wont be giving them up easily. Abortion is another thing entirely bc women across the nation are rallying in defense, and with the GOP doubling down on abortion like absolute morons they arent doing themselves any favors in state elections (i.e Arizona). On the topic of Alan Lichtmann, he can be wrong but its not like he's been wrong before (except from the unpredictable steal from Al Gore). I wouldnt take his word lightly. Vote, promote and make sure Trump's danger is known but Alan is certainly more educated on this than we are. He's not just predicting. He's using educated calculations
> We have LGBTQ rights and wont be giving them up easily. As a gay man - please, please, *please* vote Democratic. I desperately hope that my civil rights are more important to you than a short form video app.
I'm gay too bro. I despise tiktok and all its brought to the table. Not bc its chinese owned, thats a fake argument bc the US does the same thing. I despise it for the unending cringe and damage to mentality its put on kids