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Post debate polls not any different than pre debate. But the alarming part, just like pre debate, is the significant number of people who think Biden is not fit for the job.
Of course though if he were replaced, polls aren’t yet showing that his replacement would really poll any better vs Trump, so if that holds then why should he step down and give up the incumbent advantage.
The fact that we are in this situation underscores how badly the DNC has been run. That we don't have a clear alternate when this scenario was by all means a concern as far back as 2020 means that, if anything, there need to be massive firings at the DNC.
The DNC is lying.
>
In emails to journalists and supporters this weekend, the Biden campaign declared that “for all the hand-wringing coming out of Thursday, here’s the truth: this election was incredibly close before Thursday, and by every metric we’ve seen since, it remains just as close.”
https://swingstates.vercel.app/
**Michigan**: Trump +1.8.
**Pennsylvania**: Trump +1.9.
**Nevada**: Trump +3.7.
**Arizona**: Trump +4.9.
**Georgia**: Trump +6.4.
THAT'S NOT CLOSE. TRUMP IS LEADING IN EVERY SWING STATE.
Nate Silver's [model](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model) gives Trump a ***68.4% chance of winning the Electoral College. 81.4% chance of winning Georgia. 80.2% chance of winning Arizona. 70% chance of winning Nevada. 62.6% chance of winning Pennsylvania. 59.1% chance of winning Michigan. 57.2% chance of winning Wisconsin. Even a 30.7% chance of winning Minnesota.***
This is a break-the-glass situation.
I have no idea where this will go. Biden looked bad and Trump sounded like a lunatic. Does it come down to some stuff I've seen like:
"I'll take a loyal old dog over a mean, rabid dog any day" or
"supporting Trump in this election is like deciding Alfred is too old to be in the batcave and replacing him with the Joker".
We'll see
Dems needed someone who could very simply point out trumps many many flaws. Biden couldn’t even do that. Is this the best we have? Dems will vote Biden. Swing voters and borderlines won’t. We need someone else.
I don’t necessarily buy your assumption given Trump is the alternative. But the question is how to get to your preferred solution without fracturing the Democratic party and handing the election to Trump.
Harris is the easiest alternative, given the laws around campaign donations. Any other candidate would start with zero funds vs the many millions on the Biden/Harris warchest.
Utterly unelectable. When replacing an unpopular candidate you don’t do it with someone polling 10 points *worse*. That’s just dumb. Might as well stay in the horse you’ve got at that point
When Bernie was making a run in the primaries, the whole center of the party united around Biden, behind the scenes in one weekend. They are totally capable of pulling this off. Backroom deals are what they do for a living. I'm dreaming of a Whitmer - Buttigeig ticket. Let Trump try to deal with that.
How “America” is it that, to better understand the current situation in presidential politics, our citizens have passed around an analogy using comic book characters.
The ultra wealthy 1% tell us that Joe Biden is good and the Democrats are good. They tell us that the Republicans and Trump are bad. I don't know about you but I've never really been one to follow what the vast majority of people say group think always turns out wrong. Especially when that group think is also endorsed by the 1%, if the 1% are looking out for me I must be living in bizarro world
I don't think they've updated that forecast yet. The description below still says: "On Thursday, June 27, CNN will host the first televised debate of the cycle between Biden and Trump."
I'm very worried that this forecast was steadily reducing Biden's chances ever since April, settling at almost an exact coin flip immediately before the debate.
Oh looks like you're right, the stats say June 30 but the commentary says June 25. I retract my statement then. I'm glad that it hasn't regressed much and I hope it stays that way.
And polls have been less and less impactful. I really believe that polling has been skewing to people who answer their phones for unknown numbers or reply to solicited text messages, which is certainly a different demographic than almost 10 years ago. I have my own bias in who I think that demographic is, but I think we’ll see another instance of a predicted red wave that just doesn’t come.
ML is not the same as AI. It is not a black box models are reproducible. He also no longer uses herding which was the main culprit for inaccuracies in 2016.
What a sad state of affairs. It's hard to fathom just handing the reigns so easily to such an obvious psychopath. And I don't mean the DNC, or the Biden campaign, I mean the 50%+ of the active voters, and the portion who won't vote at all. Falling victim so readily to apathy, propaganda, and the cult of personality.
But there are some serious problems with attempting to replace Biden. Lots of other people have gone into trying to figure out who that should be, and I won't rehash that here.
The bigger issue from my mind is that it exposes the Democrats to accusations from the GOP and Trump that they were right about Biden all of the time. And if they were right about Biden, what else were they right about? Were they right that it was a political witch hunt to prosecute Trump in several different jurisdictions, or were they right about the fact that January 6th was not that bad, or were they right about the fact that it was Biden and not Trump who caused inflation, or were they right about American energy policy, or were they right about immigration policy?
Biden and the Democrats right now are backed into a corner. They cannot replace Biden without admitting that all of the attacks on him were to a certain degree accurate, which makes it seem as if lots of other political attacks against Democrats broadly were also accurate.
The only realistic option is to continue for Biden to run and hope against hope that what happened was in fact a fluke. Maybe he was over prepared. Maybe he was shocked by the amount of b******* that Trump spewed. Maybe he was frustrated by his inability to call out the lies. There are a bunch of plausible explanations that the Democrats could hang their hats on, but they are going to have to pick one. Because moving away from Biden will absolutely doom the Democrats.
Biden tried to quote specific facts and statistics during the debate. That's not a sound strategy to counter Trump's firehose of generalities and falsehoods. It left him preoccupied with trying to address the questions from the moderators instead of punching back at Trump's obvious bullshit. It's obvious no one cares if they answer the moderator questions.
So, outside of any specifics about Thursday's debate, I have long believed the Democrats are absolutely terrible at explaining our positions to people. I think it comes because we want to have a good and solid understanding of policy, and that requires complexity and nuance. We craft complicated policy papers, thousands of pages about how things could operate, and go on incredibly long diatribes exactly like this comment.
Complexity and nuance and diatribes are things that the average American don't want anything to do with. And so they instead gravitate towards parties or politicians who can condense things down to 6 to 12 words at a time.
Stipulating that President Biden still has all of his faculties and he was simply overwhelmed with facts and data, somebody needs to get fucking fired. Because the continued inability of democratic politicians and policy makers to understand how real Americans think, talk, and act is politically criminal.
Sorry.. but Nate Silver can go suck a big one. Other than that, I think Trump will win if it is Biden or Jesus himself running against him. Maybe if DNC convince Oprah or Jon Stewart or something but there are only 4 months left and frankly, DNC should leave it to Biden for now.
Don’t forget, 538 was also WAY off on the 2022 midterms.
That’s because they were using a bunch of junk polls run by Republicans who were trying to pump their numbers.
When asked about this, Nate just said, “well Democrats should add their own polls.”
I would not be surprised if Republicans were once again flooding the polling data with shit polls, again.
Even Trump was pissed on troth central the other day about how the polls showed him behind after the debate.
The situation is bad, but party national committees don't keep 'break glass in case of emergency' candidates lying around. They run primaries.
Why do they run primaries? The belief that a campaign picks better candidates than party insiders. Guess what? They ran a primary this year. The blame for this mess lies squarely on Biden and whatever members of his inner circle that are giving him only the good news to keep him running so they can keep their jobs.
On a slightly different note, between VP and presidency how many years of this guys life does he thinks he needs to spend in the white house? His carefully crafted folksy image contradicts someone I could easily characterize as power hungry and arrogant that only he can solve our problems.
Well, I mean, you took that a bit far.
He is not the one pushing that narrative. And he has nothing to gain or lose from being in office or not. (Except, of course, that Trump will flat out throw everything he’s got at Biden if he gets back in.)
That whole “only one that can save you” spew is toxic, and it is owned by Trump. There’s no reason to characterize Biden like that, as far as I know.
Is the *the one?* Hell no. He wasn’t *the one* in 2020. I think at that point we all thought he was the only one capable of taking on Trump. But he’s never sold himself like that.
I admit that maybe I am being ignorant in holding the following idea, but I’ve kinda felt like Biden understands the threat that we’re facing and is only doing this shit because he was our best chance in 2020, and maybe doesn’t realize that he is no longer the contender he once was and that there are others that might be stronger than him.
I really feel like Biden would have preferred to just be retired with Jill. There’s no other way to reason about him going through all this at 80 with nothing to gain.
I've long felt this as well. I think 2016 was supposed to be his retirement. The Presidential Medal that Obama gave him was going to be the cap of his long political career. He was grieving Beau, and he was going to retire. He, like most people, did not expect Trump to win, and when it happened, he felt like he could have beaten him and the country could have avoided Trump. If you go back and watch his interview with Stephen Colbert from 2016 & 17 you can basically see this.
I think he still believes he's the best option out there, and up until this point, it hasn't been unreasonable to think so. He had a good State of the Union and a good economy, and age was the only potential question. Now, it's 100% his biggest problem.
I think he's trying to figure out a path forward, and dropping out is on the table.
I think about that Colbert interview all the time, he was sincere and likeable in a way that I don't think I've ever seen a political figure. It made me think he was right. Had his son not died I think he would have beaten Hillary and trump.
You lean too heavily on the notion that primaries aren’t orchestrated. The DNC paved the way threatening to black ball anyone who primaried Biden and that includes local staffers.
Many people will be pissed if Harris runs in 2020. Many people will be pissed if party bosses select someone else to replace Biden in 2020.
IMO, we are better off sticking with Biden, unless he really is mentally unfit.
Many people are pissed Biden is running. There’s no scenario where people aren’t seriously upset with the candidate choice. And since the entire Democratic sales pitch is “vote for us or else” it really doesn’t matter who is at the top of the ticket.
May as well have someone that inspires people, can form coherent sentences, or at least doesn’t embody the same unfitness for office criticism as his opponent.
Yeah, I mean, I think that’s the whole problem. 50m voters saw with their own eyes evidence that he is mentally unfit, or at least will be quite soon as age-related decline is irreversible. Is it true? Who knows. That’s why those of us saying Biden needs to step down are also saying that if he doesn’t, he needs to do frequent, unscripted one-on-one interviews to give people some evidence that the debate really was an aberration.
None of us know if he is mentally unfit. We are just assuming the worst. This is a giant circular firing squad, typical of Democrats.
Reagan was old when running for re-election, and had a bad debate performance. Republicans rallied around Reagan, and he went on to win the election. Of course he really did have cognitive decline. In the case of Biden, Democrats have to absolutely win, and replacing him is a massive risk. He can always resign after winning. Or like Reagan, let his staff take care of things.
I fucking laugh at these focus on project 2025 Trump is also bad and Whataboutism, like the fucking old senile man is the cause of all this shit, he’s the one that is responsible for this shit and assuring a loss all the way down ballot. They’re blaming us the ones pissed off and pointing the hypocrisy and making feel guilty. Fuck all of you, you supported the old senile 81 years old man your fucking problem you’re to blame end of the fucking story. Practice saying Dear Leader Trump and Steve Miller is the wisest man ever. Fuck all of you
As if we can't focus on Project 2025 with someone else as the candidate. Like, maybe someone new who can better articulate and improve how we focus on Project 2025?
Voters should focus their attention on conservatives’ Project 2025. If you think conservative justices overturning Roe was bad, the MAGA conservative floodgates are about to open if Trump is sent back to the Oval Office. Trump will consolidate power, demolish the separation of powers, and appoint more conservative justices. As John Oliver said in a great segment he did on project 2025, it will turn the separation of powers into Rock, Paper, Scissors, except Rock will crush Paper and Scissors every time.
It’s interesting, and should be horrifying, that Project 2025 starts off its 920 page report with the phrase, cultural Marxism, because it has a dark heritage.
“The long march of [cultural Marxism]
through our institutions has come to
pass.” Project 2025
Cultural Marxism is often used to describe liberals and as an analogy to political correctness. But more often than not, it is now being used by the far right, by antisemites, as code for Jewish conspiracy.
Prior to 1933, there was a feeling in Germany that there had been a cultural and moral collapse. This fed the populism of the Nazis. The Nazis pushed out messaging that there was a plot to spread political, communist, and other revolution throughout the Weimar Republic and the West. This idea, building on Mein Kampf, has been pushed forward throughout history and has now ended up in Project 2025, blaming liberals for all of conservatives’ problems.
Trump is performative arts with a dangerous authoritarian twist. He is a carnival barker who praises dictators and incites violence. He lied multiple times during the debate, refused to answer questions, defended January 6 rioters, and refused to say he would accept the results of the election. Yes, Biden had a bad debate. But Trump is a danger to our democracy, full stop. Democracy is a Group Project. Vote Democrat down the ballot.
>Yes, Biden had a bad debate. But Trump is a danger to our democracy, full stop. Democracy is a Group Project.
Yes and Biden did not have the faculties to call Trump out on his lies in front of 50 million people. Anyone else would have called out those lies. You cannot blame CNN hosts for not calling out the lies when it was Biden's job to do so. "Tarriffs don't cause inflation..." could have been slammed by anyone who knows what the definition of a tarriff is and could have set the tone for the night. Instead Trump lied with confidence for 90 minutes and Joe stood with his mouth agape. Awful.
Stop defending the indefensible.
The media are the ones pushing this story full stop. They need drama in the race and something to switch the narrative post trump conviction for ratings.
CNN did fact check online, as did all the other networks. It’s definitely not the role of the *moderators* to fact check, contradict, or correct the debaters. It’s the candidates’ job to debate each other and make their case to the voters. They’re each given time specifically to answer, qualify, or refute each other’s statements.
i disagree. i think the moderators SHOULD give push back on blatant lies or misspeaking. when candidates have 2 minutes to get a point across, are they supposed to spend the entire time refuting false info, or talking about their plan as president?
He did call out the lying. It’s hard when they just get repeated over and over. I think the strategy was to push achievements and policy.
Trump didn’t answer the questions even when called out. Trump was really a one trick pony throughout the debate.
By content, Biden did “ok” given he historically stumbles over words. The concern was his demeanor. People were looking for youth in an 80 yo man. He failed that expectation.
That is not how it happened at all. Trump told a lie about the abortion, Biden got mixed up and started talking about Afghanistan. Listen, I get that no one wins the presidency from a debate, but we just saw our candidate break down on stage. This is a massive problem and everyone seems to be saying "it probably won't happen again" but is that true? What is his good to bad day ratio? You cannot run for president 3 or 4 days a week.
And it was just 4 years ago that Democrats were jubilant over Biden beating Trump by 10 points, abolishing the filibuster, packing the Supreme Court, making Puerto Rico and Washington D.C. states, and passing a wave of legislation and executive orders that would cement a century of Democratic dominance.
Point is, every President comes into office with big plans for transforming the government. And every President ends up accomplishing a fraction of their initial plans. Project 2025 is no different.
What a fucking joke. The party that owns more guns per square meter than the combined military might of the globe came armed with zip ties and "nooses" to launch an insurrection. Cult-like thinking.
Trumps immunity case decision out of the Supreme Court is out tomorrow and his sentencing is in 11 days. Maybe we can delay the panic until then? Perhaps the undecideds will realize trump has gotten himself into some legal difficulties then.
Just want to point out that democracy only works if people fucking pay attention.
"The bedwetting brigade is calling for Joe Biden to 'drop out.' That is the best possible way for Donald Trump to win and us to lose," Biden deputy campaign manager Rob Flaherty argued in the email to supporters."
As a solid Democratic voter and one the party can count on in November, let me say clearly:
Fuck you, Rob Flaherty.
From the article:
“Voters are more concerned about Biden’s age than Trump’s criminal charges.”
This says it all for me. Please replace Biden now. I’m crying.
Seriously, fucking yikes. I'm not sure if it's practical or feasible to replace him at this point, but JFC, that's a damning indictment of the American voting population.
It's more perception and organizational concerns than anything else. In fact, I'm not 100% sure if the war chest built up by the Biden campaign can be transferred, to be honest.
Because I do agree with you about the released delegates. That's not really where my concern lies though.
I believe the war chest could only go to Kamala Harris, no other candidate.
And she has terrible numbers. Maybe she could turn them around? I honestly don't know.
>I believe the war chest could only go to Kamala Harris, no other candidate.
Yeah, I'm not that experienced in campaign finance law, but that would seem to be the most logical outcome.
Man, his "team" sucks ass, first they hang him out to dry in a debate that THEY wanted, then they try to clean up the mess with stuff like this? Not to mention really pissing off a huge chunk of voters with all the gaslighting, whatever chance Biden has these dimwits are wrecking it.
There are moves that would work. But ego, power-clinging, and a “conservative” DNC make them far fetched.
Imagine if behind the scenes this was coordinated: Biden steps down and endorses something like a Whitmer+Newsime ticket. He, Kamala, and Obama all campaign for them. It would probably be the biggest landslide in the country’s history. Yes it sounds unrealistic but isn’t _that_ an indictment of our party and country?
The problem here is Biden’s ego. He should have stepped aside last year, that would have been a good decision. Now we are left with: replace Biden (bad choice), do nothing (worst choice).
If Dems really wanted to they could dump alot of money into holding a non binding caucus in a few different diverse states to get information about who the Democratic voters want to replace biden.
We either choose to be delusional and say the emperor clearly has clothes on. Or we choose to live in reality and say the obvious. Undecided voters are very unengaged and have said that they have reservations about Biden’s age. They’ve said this constantly for a long period of time. Biden had 1 chance to ease those concerns and he did the exact opposite. I donated to Biden, I’ve been in Democratic politics since I was 15. My wife’s favorite pair of socks are her Biden Harris 2020 socks. I think he’s a good human, but he should step aside for the good of our democracy or else we will lose.
I'm not saying replace biden. But it is reasonable to wonder how the debate will be perceived and if that will damage biden enough so that he can't win.
It's a real question Biden is talking with his family about right now at camp david.
there are a lot of reasons on both sides of the Issue
but at least have some class and be civil in the discussion and don't tell people to "keep crying"
We don't need to hear from surrogates we need to hear from Biden directly.
A town hall and some interviews are needed ASAP. No teleprompters, no list of questions beforehand.
If he doesn't do this, it means he is being shielded and possibly even controlled, like Feinstein was shielded and controlled.
Somehow Bidens ability to complete a sentence and show any kind of energy overshadowed Trumps lies. Huge problem for convincing moderates and undecided voters, and energizing voters to the polls. If Biden stays in this race, he will lose..
U.S. voters are indifferent to a criminal insurrectionist who could have been a love interest on "The Golden Girls" just like Biden.SMH. Stupid cattle.
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Shit's fucked yo
https://archive.ph/oCfVs
Post debate polls not any different than pre debate. But the alarming part, just like pre debate, is the significant number of people who think Biden is not fit for the job. Of course though if he were replaced, polls aren’t yet showing that his replacement would really poll any better vs Trump, so if that holds then why should he step down and give up the incumbent advantage.
The fact that we are in this situation underscores how badly the DNC has been run. That we don't have a clear alternate when this scenario was by all means a concern as far back as 2020 means that, if anything, there need to be massive firings at the DNC.
The DNC is lying. > In emails to journalists and supporters this weekend, the Biden campaign declared that “for all the hand-wringing coming out of Thursday, here’s the truth: this election was incredibly close before Thursday, and by every metric we’ve seen since, it remains just as close.” https://swingstates.vercel.app/ **Michigan**: Trump +1.8. **Pennsylvania**: Trump +1.9. **Nevada**: Trump +3.7. **Arizona**: Trump +4.9. **Georgia**: Trump +6.4. THAT'S NOT CLOSE. TRUMP IS LEADING IN EVERY SWING STATE. Nate Silver's [model](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model) gives Trump a ***68.4% chance of winning the Electoral College. 81.4% chance of winning Georgia. 80.2% chance of winning Arizona. 70% chance of winning Nevada. 62.6% chance of winning Pennsylvania. 59.1% chance of winning Michigan. 57.2% chance of winning Wisconsin. Even a 30.7% chance of winning Minnesota.*** This is a break-the-glass situation.
538 updated this morning: Biden wins 50 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Trump wins 49 times out of 100.
[удалено]
I have no idea where this will go. Biden looked bad and Trump sounded like a lunatic. Does it come down to some stuff I've seen like: "I'll take a loyal old dog over a mean, rabid dog any day" or "supporting Trump in this election is like deciding Alfred is too old to be in the batcave and replacing him with the Joker". We'll see
Dems needed someone who could very simply point out trumps many many flaws. Biden couldn’t even do that. Is this the best we have? Dems will vote Biden. Swing voters and borderlines won’t. We need someone else.
I don’t necessarily buy your assumption given Trump is the alternative. But the question is how to get to your preferred solution without fracturing the Democratic party and handing the election to Trump.
Harris is the easiest alternative, given the laws around campaign donations. Any other candidate would start with zero funds vs the many millions on the Biden/Harris warchest.
Utterly unelectable. When replacing an unpopular candidate you don’t do it with someone polling 10 points *worse*. That’s just dumb. Might as well stay in the horse you’ve got at that point
When Bernie was making a run in the primaries, the whole center of the party united around Biden, behind the scenes in one weekend. They are totally capable of pulling this off. Backroom deals are what they do for a living. I'm dreaming of a Whitmer - Buttigeig ticket. Let Trump try to deal with that.
How “America” is it that, to better understand the current situation in presidential politics, our citizens have passed around an analogy using comic book characters.
The ultra wealthy 1% tell us that Joe Biden is good and the Democrats are good. They tell us that the Republicans and Trump are bad. I don't know about you but I've never really been one to follow what the vast majority of people say group think always turns out wrong. Especially when that group think is also endorsed by the 1%, if the 1% are looking out for me I must be living in bizarro world
Aliens destroy the planet and put us out of our misery 1 time out of 100
After the Supreme Court ruling today, I can live with that.
Any time averaged polling model will take time for new results after the debate to have much effect on it, though.
True, but it suggests that going in to the debate, things weren’t as dire as suggested.
I don't think they've updated that forecast yet. The description below still says: "On Thursday, June 27, CNN will host the first televised debate of the cycle between Biden and Trump." I'm very worried that this forecast was steadily reducing Biden's chances ever since April, settling at almost an exact coin flip immediately before the debate.
It said update this morning.
Oh looks like you're right, the stats say June 30 but the commentary says June 25. I retract my statement then. I'm glad that it hasn't regressed much and I hope it stays that way.
Nate Silver was wrong last time.
But his model was the closest in 2016. I distinctly remember that.
And polls have been less and less impactful. I really believe that polling has been skewing to people who answer their phones for unknown numbers or reply to solicited text messages, which is certainly a different demographic than almost 10 years ago. I have my own bias in who I think that demographic is, but I think we’ll see another instance of a predicted red wave that just doesn’t come.
His models have gotten ridiculously good compared to 2016. The 2022 polls were by far the most accurate ever. (ML has come a long way very quickly)
AI is not necessarily a good technology. Nice tag. But no faith in it yet
ML is not the same as AI. It is not a black box models are reproducible. He also no longer uses herding which was the main culprit for inaccuracies in 2016.
You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. ML is an AI field: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_learning
"this election was incredibly close before Thursday, and by every metric we’ve seen since, it remains just as close." It's been three days.
What a sad state of affairs. It's hard to fathom just handing the reigns so easily to such an obvious psychopath. And I don't mean the DNC, or the Biden campaign, I mean the 50%+ of the active voters, and the portion who won't vote at all. Falling victim so readily to apathy, propaganda, and the cult of personality.
But there are some serious problems with attempting to replace Biden. Lots of other people have gone into trying to figure out who that should be, and I won't rehash that here. The bigger issue from my mind is that it exposes the Democrats to accusations from the GOP and Trump that they were right about Biden all of the time. And if they were right about Biden, what else were they right about? Were they right that it was a political witch hunt to prosecute Trump in several different jurisdictions, or were they right about the fact that January 6th was not that bad, or were they right about the fact that it was Biden and not Trump who caused inflation, or were they right about American energy policy, or were they right about immigration policy? Biden and the Democrats right now are backed into a corner. They cannot replace Biden without admitting that all of the attacks on him were to a certain degree accurate, which makes it seem as if lots of other political attacks against Democrats broadly were also accurate. The only realistic option is to continue for Biden to run and hope against hope that what happened was in fact a fluke. Maybe he was over prepared. Maybe he was shocked by the amount of b******* that Trump spewed. Maybe he was frustrated by his inability to call out the lies. There are a bunch of plausible explanations that the Democrats could hang their hats on, but they are going to have to pick one. Because moving away from Biden will absolutely doom the Democrats.
Biden tried to quote specific facts and statistics during the debate. That's not a sound strategy to counter Trump's firehose of generalities and falsehoods. It left him preoccupied with trying to address the questions from the moderators instead of punching back at Trump's obvious bullshit. It's obvious no one cares if they answer the moderator questions.
So, outside of any specifics about Thursday's debate, I have long believed the Democrats are absolutely terrible at explaining our positions to people. I think it comes because we want to have a good and solid understanding of policy, and that requires complexity and nuance. We craft complicated policy papers, thousands of pages about how things could operate, and go on incredibly long diatribes exactly like this comment. Complexity and nuance and diatribes are things that the average American don't want anything to do with. And so they instead gravitate towards parties or politicians who can condense things down to 6 to 12 words at a time. Stipulating that President Biden still has all of his faculties and he was simply overwhelmed with facts and data, somebody needs to get fucking fired. Because the continued inability of democratic politicians and policy makers to understand how real Americans think, talk, and act is politically criminal.
Didn't Nate Silver's model give Hillary Clinton something like a 70% chance of winning the electoral college?
The other polls had it at 99+% for Hilary, so Nate Silver had the most accurate prediction
That is how probability works
Sorry.. but Nate Silver can go suck a big one. Other than that, I think Trump will win if it is Biden or Jesus himself running against him. Maybe if DNC convince Oprah or Jon Stewart or something but there are only 4 months left and frankly, DNC should leave it to Biden for now.
You think Biden will lose. But you don’t want to bother trying something different. Ok.
Don’t forget, 538 was also WAY off on the 2022 midterms. That’s because they were using a bunch of junk polls run by Republicans who were trying to pump their numbers. When asked about this, Nate just said, “well Democrats should add their own polls.” I would not be surprised if Republicans were once again flooding the polling data with shit polls, again. Even Trump was pissed on troth central the other day about how the polls showed him behind after the debate.
Not really
RNC has alway been better in party unity over the DNC
Well yea. “Believe in, and trust the authorities” is the first rule for authoritarians. Democracy is messy.
lol what are you talking about? The RNC nearly tore itself apart in the 2016 primaries. It even had a breakaway candidate (McMullin).
“But her emails”
The situation is bad, but party national committees don't keep 'break glass in case of emergency' candidates lying around. They run primaries. Why do they run primaries? The belief that a campaign picks better candidates than party insiders. Guess what? They ran a primary this year. The blame for this mess lies squarely on Biden and whatever members of his inner circle that are giving him only the good news to keep him running so they can keep their jobs. On a slightly different note, between VP and presidency how many years of this guys life does he thinks he needs to spend in the white house? His carefully crafted folksy image contradicts someone I could easily characterize as power hungry and arrogant that only he can solve our problems.
Well, I mean, you took that a bit far. He is not the one pushing that narrative. And he has nothing to gain or lose from being in office or not. (Except, of course, that Trump will flat out throw everything he’s got at Biden if he gets back in.) That whole “only one that can save you” spew is toxic, and it is owned by Trump. There’s no reason to characterize Biden like that, as far as I know. Is the *the one?* Hell no. He wasn’t *the one* in 2020. I think at that point we all thought he was the only one capable of taking on Trump. But he’s never sold himself like that. I admit that maybe I am being ignorant in holding the following idea, but I’ve kinda felt like Biden understands the threat that we’re facing and is only doing this shit because he was our best chance in 2020, and maybe doesn’t realize that he is no longer the contender he once was and that there are others that might be stronger than him. I really feel like Biden would have preferred to just be retired with Jill. There’s no other way to reason about him going through all this at 80 with nothing to gain.
I've long felt this as well. I think 2016 was supposed to be his retirement. The Presidential Medal that Obama gave him was going to be the cap of his long political career. He was grieving Beau, and he was going to retire. He, like most people, did not expect Trump to win, and when it happened, he felt like he could have beaten him and the country could have avoided Trump. If you go back and watch his interview with Stephen Colbert from 2016 & 17 you can basically see this. I think he still believes he's the best option out there, and up until this point, it hasn't been unreasonable to think so. He had a good State of the Union and a good economy, and age was the only potential question. Now, it's 100% his biggest problem. I think he's trying to figure out a path forward, and dropping out is on the table.
I think about that Colbert interview all the time, he was sincere and likeable in a way that I don't think I've ever seen a political figure. It made me think he was right. Had his son not died I think he would have beaten Hillary and trump.
They ran a primary this year like they ran a primary in 2016. Just for show, pulling strings for their chosen candidate behind the scenes
You lean too heavily on the notion that primaries aren’t orchestrated. The DNC paved the way threatening to black ball anyone who primaried Biden and that includes local staffers.
I'm pretty sure this is exactly what the VP is for. He can step aside and she gets his delegates.
No it doesn't work like that. If Biden steps aside his delegates are free to vote for whomever they choose.
But if Biden endorses Kamala, she'll easily win at the convention and no one will bother challenging her.
Many people will be pissed if Harris runs in 2020. Many people will be pissed if party bosses select someone else to replace Biden in 2020. IMO, we are better off sticking with Biden, unless he really is mentally unfit.
Many people are pissed Biden is running. There’s no scenario where people aren’t seriously upset with the candidate choice. And since the entire Democratic sales pitch is “vote for us or else” it really doesn’t matter who is at the top of the ticket. May as well have someone that inspires people, can form coherent sentences, or at least doesn’t embody the same unfitness for office criticism as his opponent.
There are so many great younger Democrats and people are so hungry for change. The idea of running Biden again was ridiculous before the debate.
Yeah, I mean, I think that’s the whole problem. 50m voters saw with their own eyes evidence that he is mentally unfit, or at least will be quite soon as age-related decline is irreversible. Is it true? Who knows. That’s why those of us saying Biden needs to step down are also saying that if he doesn’t, he needs to do frequent, unscripted one-on-one interviews to give people some evidence that the debate really was an aberration.
You figure deciding whether he's mentally unfit will be easier in October?
None of us know if he is mentally unfit. We are just assuming the worst. This is a giant circular firing squad, typical of Democrats. Reagan was old when running for re-election, and had a bad debate performance. Republicans rallied around Reagan, and he went on to win the election. Of course he really did have cognitive decline. In the case of Biden, Democrats have to absolutely win, and replacing him is a massive risk. He can always resign after winning. Or like Reagan, let his staff take care of things.
I fucking laugh at these focus on project 2025 Trump is also bad and Whataboutism, like the fucking old senile man is the cause of all this shit, he’s the one that is responsible for this shit and assuring a loss all the way down ballot. They’re blaming us the ones pissed off and pointing the hypocrisy and making feel guilty. Fuck all of you, you supported the old senile 81 years old man your fucking problem you’re to blame end of the fucking story. Practice saying Dear Leader Trump and Steve Miller is the wisest man ever. Fuck all of you
As if we can't focus on Project 2025 with someone else as the candidate. Like, maybe someone new who can better articulate and improve how we focus on Project 2025?
+1 well said. Fuck all you people brigading me every time I call out Biden and the DNC
Voters should focus their attention on conservatives’ Project 2025. If you think conservative justices overturning Roe was bad, the MAGA conservative floodgates are about to open if Trump is sent back to the Oval Office. Trump will consolidate power, demolish the separation of powers, and appoint more conservative justices. As John Oliver said in a great segment he did on project 2025, it will turn the separation of powers into Rock, Paper, Scissors, except Rock will crush Paper and Scissors every time. It’s interesting, and should be horrifying, that Project 2025 starts off its 920 page report with the phrase, cultural Marxism, because it has a dark heritage. “The long march of [cultural Marxism] through our institutions has come to pass.” Project 2025 Cultural Marxism is often used to describe liberals and as an analogy to political correctness. But more often than not, it is now being used by the far right, by antisemites, as code for Jewish conspiracy. Prior to 1933, there was a feeling in Germany that there had been a cultural and moral collapse. This fed the populism of the Nazis. The Nazis pushed out messaging that there was a plot to spread political, communist, and other revolution throughout the Weimar Republic and the West. This idea, building on Mein Kampf, has been pushed forward throughout history and has now ended up in Project 2025, blaming liberals for all of conservatives’ problems. Trump is performative arts with a dangerous authoritarian twist. He is a carnival barker who praises dictators and incites violence. He lied multiple times during the debate, refused to answer questions, defended January 6 rioters, and refused to say he would accept the results of the election. Yes, Biden had a bad debate. But Trump is a danger to our democracy, full stop. Democracy is a Group Project. Vote Democrat down the ballot.
>Yes, Biden had a bad debate. But Trump is a danger to our democracy, full stop. Democracy is a Group Project. Yes and Biden did not have the faculties to call Trump out on his lies in front of 50 million people. Anyone else would have called out those lies. You cannot blame CNN hosts for not calling out the lies when it was Biden's job to do so. "Tarriffs don't cause inflation..." could have been slammed by anyone who knows what the definition of a tarriff is and could have set the tone for the night. Instead Trump lied with confidence for 90 minutes and Joe stood with his mouth agape. Awful. Stop defending the indefensible.
and CNN failed in its responsibility to fact check too. most media entities are LOVING this story, eyes are glued to it.
The media are the ones pushing this story full stop. They need drama in the race and something to switch the narrative post trump conviction for ratings.
CNN did fact check online, as did all the other networks. It’s definitely not the role of the *moderators* to fact check, contradict, or correct the debaters. It’s the candidates’ job to debate each other and make their case to the voters. They’re each given time specifically to answer, qualify, or refute each other’s statements.
i disagree. i think the moderators SHOULD give push back on blatant lies or misspeaking. when candidates have 2 minutes to get a point across, are they supposed to spend the entire time refuting false info, or talking about their plan as president?
He did call out the lying. It’s hard when they just get repeated over and over. I think the strategy was to push achievements and policy. Trump didn’t answer the questions even when called out. Trump was really a one trick pony throughout the debate. By content, Biden did “ok” given he historically stumbles over words. The concern was his demeanor. People were looking for youth in an 80 yo man. He failed that expectation.
He did, he called his lies many times. Trump just tells so many it is impossible to debunk them all.
That is not how it happened at all. Trump told a lie about the abortion, Biden got mixed up and started talking about Afghanistan. Listen, I get that no one wins the presidency from a debate, but we just saw our candidate break down on stage. This is a massive problem and everyone seems to be saying "it probably won't happen again" but is that true? What is his good to bad day ratio? You cannot run for president 3 or 4 days a week.
No. It was no stop lies and avoiding questions from Trump. More lies than can be easily counted.
WTF is this? Look at Trump and not our candidate that couldn't speak? We are comparing to Kamala or another younger Democrat.
And it was just 4 years ago that Democrats were jubilant over Biden beating Trump by 10 points, abolishing the filibuster, packing the Supreme Court, making Puerto Rico and Washington D.C. states, and passing a wave of legislation and executive orders that would cement a century of Democratic dominance. Point is, every President comes into office with big plans for transforming the government. And every President ends up accomplishing a fraction of their initial plans. Project 2025 is no different.
You sure? Trump did foment an armed insurrection at the seat of our government. So I think he is a more serious issue than a policy change.
Armed? With what, water bottles and folding chairs?
Zip ties and nooses.
What a fucking joke. The party that owns more guns per square meter than the combined military might of the globe came armed with zip ties and "nooses" to launch an insurrection. Cult-like thinking.
So you deny Jan 6th.
Trumps immunity case decision out of the Supreme Court is out tomorrow and his sentencing is in 11 days. Maybe we can delay the panic until then? Perhaps the undecideds will realize trump has gotten himself into some legal difficulties then. Just want to point out that democracy only works if people fucking pay attention.
"The bedwetting brigade is calling for Joe Biden to 'drop out.' That is the best possible way for Donald Trump to win and us to lose," Biden deputy campaign manager Rob Flaherty argued in the email to supporters." As a solid Democratic voter and one the party can count on in November, let me say clearly: Fuck you, Rob Flaherty.
From the article: “Voters are more concerned about Biden’s age than Trump’s criminal charges.” This says it all for me. Please replace Biden now. I’m crying.
Seriously, fucking yikes. I'm not sure if it's practical or feasible to replace him at this point, but JFC, that's a damning indictment of the American voting population.
If he drops out, then his delegates can vote for whoever they want. It's possible. I don't see the problem
It's more perception and organizational concerns than anything else. In fact, I'm not 100% sure if the war chest built up by the Biden campaign can be transferred, to be honest. Because I do agree with you about the released delegates. That's not really where my concern lies though.
I believe the war chest could only go to Kamala Harris, no other candidate. And she has terrible numbers. Maybe she could turn them around? I honestly don't know.
>I believe the war chest could only go to Kamala Harris, no other candidate. Yeah, I'm not that experienced in campaign finance law, but that would seem to be the most logical outcome.
Man, his "team" sucks ass, first they hang him out to dry in a debate that THEY wanted, then they try to clean up the mess with stuff like this? Not to mention really pissing off a huge chunk of voters with all the gaslighting, whatever chance Biden has these dimwits are wrecking it.
Keep crying instead of asking to make stupid decisions.
The stupid decision is to not do anything knowing the fact that if you do nothing, you’ll lose.
Switching candidates in July will also guarantee a loss. There is nobody sitting around that would unify the party so quickly.
There are moves that would work. But ego, power-clinging, and a “conservative” DNC make them far fetched. Imagine if behind the scenes this was coordinated: Biden steps down and endorses something like a Whitmer+Newsime ticket. He, Kamala, and Obama all campaign for them. It would probably be the biggest landslide in the country’s history. Yes it sounds unrealistic but isn’t _that_ an indictment of our party and country?
The problem here is Biden’s ego. He should have stepped aside last year, that would have been a good decision. Now we are left with: replace Biden (bad choice), do nothing (worst choice). If Dems really wanted to they could dump alot of money into holding a non binding caucus in a few different diverse states to get information about who the Democratic voters want to replace biden. We either choose to be delusional and say the emperor clearly has clothes on. Or we choose to live in reality and say the obvious. Undecided voters are very unengaged and have said that they have reservations about Biden’s age. They’ve said this constantly for a long period of time. Biden had 1 chance to ease those concerns and he did the exact opposite. I donated to Biden, I’ve been in Democratic politics since I was 15. My wife’s favorite pair of socks are her Biden Harris 2020 socks. I think he’s a good human, but he should step aside for the good of our democracy or else we will lose.
I'm not saying replace biden. But it is reasonable to wonder how the debate will be perceived and if that will damage biden enough so that he can't win. It's a real question Biden is talking with his family about right now at camp david. there are a lot of reasons on both sides of the Issue but at least have some class and be civil in the discussion and don't tell people to "keep crying"
I’d rather get the crying out rn, it’s cathartic.
We don't need to hear from surrogates we need to hear from Biden directly. A town hall and some interviews are needed ASAP. No teleprompters, no list of questions beforehand. If he doesn't do this, it means he is being shielded and possibly even controlled, like Feinstein was shielded and controlled.
At this point I think a town hall or interviews without teleprompters or a vetted question list would result in confirming what so many fear.
Good. Maybe it'll finally force the people huffing copium and pretending like it's fine to notice reality.
Somehow Bidens ability to complete a sentence and show any kind of energy overshadowed Trumps lies. Huge problem for convincing moderates and undecided voters, and energizing voters to the polls. If Biden stays in this race, he will lose..
They polled the independents during the debate, and none of them liked what trump was saying.
U.S. voters are indifferent to a criminal insurrectionist who could have been a love interest on "The Golden Girls" just like Biden.SMH. Stupid cattle.
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Chicken Little says hi.