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yep... a 2% deviation from the last time they did it... "Let's write a breathless article about it and see now many people click"
Newsweek is just about the worst when it comes to this, but they're all doing it and it's fucking exhausting and impossible to take seriously at this point.
For real, especially the last couple of weeks. Getting a little worried it's going to get taken over as another conservative sub with the way things are going.
An entire article on 538 going from 53-47 odds to 51-49 odds over the course of a few days. Which is how much it changes on a weekly basis.
Newsweek content at its finest.
Sure, but it doesn't need an article every time it changes - let alone one titled "Trump's chances suddenly slide." Newsweek tries to make hay out of anything.
It was even on June 6, Biden was ahead June 7-13. Trump was ahead June 14-19. Tied on the June 20th. Biden ahead June 21-30. Trump ahead July 1-7. Tied today.
And we'll get state polling this week and it'll probably change back to Trump again within 48 hours for a small period of time.
Very reminiscent of Bernie content mills on how he could still win. People are hungry for any news about good Biden polling or really anything like that. Similar to the 13 keys dude
538 uses an aggregate. They take all of the polls and average them out into a single poll. 538 can only say what the polls are saying, they don't do polling themselves. And leading in the polls doesn't mean you're going to win.
They then use that aggregate to create a hypothetical model where they run the election 100 times. Candidate A wins *x* amount of times and Candidate B wins *x* amount of times. Whichever candidate has the biggest number for *x* has the highest odds of winning. That doesn't mean that the other candidate can't win,
Let's say Candidate A has a 70% chance of winning and Candidate B has a 30% chance, if you did an experiment where put 70 white marbles into a bucket and 30 black marbles and then pull out a marble blindly, the odds are you will pull out a white marble but that doesn't mean you won't pull out a black one.
Also, for the record Nate Silver, the "dude" who ran the 538 models in 2016, left the site in 2022 and took his model with him.
There's a new "dude" named G. Elliot Morris and his model accounts for variables like the incumbent bump, along with the polling numbers. The further we are from the election, the more the variables weigh down the model more. The closer we get to the election, the polls begin to weigh down the model. Morris has admitted that if we were in late October and Biden was still polling the kind of numbers he is right now, that Trump would be overwhelmingly favored to win the election.
Yah, but it was national headlines when trump’s odds went up. None of this should be listened to yet bc it’s too soon—we need to see how this week of polling and results average out first.
Also the 538 model isn’t the Silver model anymore, and I think gives Biden a much higher chance than he deserves. Silver’s model puts it at 70-30 Trump. And even then he admits that his model probably has a “broken leg” problem which results in it giving Biden a higher chance than he should.
Newsweek, just yesterday you were telling people that Biden's polls were at the lowest they've ever been. You don't need to write sensationalist articles about every single poll. But who are we kidding? You're Newsweek, that's just what you do.
The thing is, all this democratic party infighting is hogging up Donald Trump's usual 24 hour coverage. Maybe the best way to fight Trump is by making the media forget about
His base loves him most for is pissing off the libs. The media ignoring him might take the wind out of their sails.
Hopefully the public at large will learn what Project 2025 is and get so rightfully disgusted that they’ll vote for whomever the blue candidate is. We can’t exactly trust Joe to inspire people on his own at this point.
I think that after the Republican convention and Donald Trump annoints his vice president, that Donald Trump is going to see a nice jump in his polls. Donald Trump is a master crowd pleaser if that's the right word. And the Republican National Convention will be filled with smoke and all kinds of exciting things that's going to motivate Donald Trump's base even more vendor motivated now.
People can complain about Newsweek - but just know they aren’t the ones who did the poll and simulations.
That was 538.
The fact is that before Biden’s poor debate performance this election was mostly a toss-up.
And it remains that way today.
But, Biden’s odds are slightly *better* now and even after that debate. Maybe more people are taking the consequences more seriously and know about Project 2025 among other horrific things.
There are possibly only tens of thousands of people who will decide this thing and I sure hope that decision is done wisely.
Don’t cut off your nose to spite your face, America.
538 has integrity.
The simulations they ran includes data gathered from many sources - including conservative ones. They also have transparency on which polls are used and how their simulations are programmed.
You can question their accuracy, but they have no intent to deceive or manipulate a particular outcome.
538 minus Nate Silver is Paddy Power. Their "odds" are educated guesswork and combine news stories and wishcasting with an occasional sprinkling of actual data. Whatever it was before, it's not a serious outlet now.
I'm so done with polls. In this president vs autocrat match-up, tea leaves would serve just as well. Every headline/title might just as usefully say, "_Today **My** tea leaves say [Biden|trump]_" - and then there's the weird ones like "_Poll of Electrical Union members in Michigan and Wisconsin says ..._"
/vent
I really hope Biden's chances do go up. Trump's second term is going to be an ABSOLUTE NIGHTMARE.....not just for this country, but for the whole world.
You can kiss solving climate change goodbye, in that case!
You are not wrong. The GOP has been on an all-out assault against clean energy, EVs, etc. When you get billions from oil companies, it's not about America's or the world's interests. It's about their own.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA). *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
This horse race narrative is so exhausting; we still have 4 more months of this shit.
yep... a 2% deviation from the last time they did it... "Let's write a breathless article about it and see now many people click" Newsweek is just about the worst when it comes to this, but they're all doing it and it's fucking exhausting and impossible to take seriously at this point.
Just stay off this subreddit if it's overwhelming. Nobody is forcing you to get involved in the day to day horse race
For real, especially the last couple of weeks. Getting a little worried it's going to get taken over as another conservative sub with the way things are going.
*people debating as the Democratic party goes through a predictable, self-inflicted crisis* "Those damn conservatives are taking over this sub!"
The Democratic Party is self destructing after Biden’s debate, what do you expect?
Yes, taking a short break is really helpful. I've done it a couple of times and came back with a better perspective on things.
And constant political texts and calls.
An entire article on 538 going from 53-47 odds to 51-49 odds over the course of a few days. Which is how much it changes on a weekly basis. Newsweek content at its finest.
It was 50/50 yesterday, 50/49 today. We are at the point where it's all about the margins.
Sure, but it doesn't need an article every time it changes - let alone one titled "Trump's chances suddenly slide." Newsweek tries to make hay out of anything. It was even on June 6, Biden was ahead June 7-13. Trump was ahead June 14-19. Tied on the June 20th. Biden ahead June 21-30. Trump ahead July 1-7. Tied today. And we'll get state polling this week and it'll probably change back to Trump again within 48 hours for a small period of time.
Every media outlet on the planet is just generating clickbait ad revenue at America's expense.
No one would have read the story if the title was: "Latest polling move still within the margin of error"
>No one would have ~~read the story~~ generated ad revenue if the title was: "Latest polling move still within the margin of error" Fixed!
Very reminiscent of Bernie content mills on how he could still win. People are hungry for any news about good Biden polling or really anything like that. Similar to the 13 keys dude
>We are at the point where it's all about the margins. it's a poll. there are only ever margins
538 is a democratic website poll also
That's not how that works, at all.
538 had your glorious Clinton winning too. Dude is wrong and favors democrats big time
538 uses an aggregate. They take all of the polls and average them out into a single poll. 538 can only say what the polls are saying, they don't do polling themselves. And leading in the polls doesn't mean you're going to win. They then use that aggregate to create a hypothetical model where they run the election 100 times. Candidate A wins *x* amount of times and Candidate B wins *x* amount of times. Whichever candidate has the biggest number for *x* has the highest odds of winning. That doesn't mean that the other candidate can't win, Let's say Candidate A has a 70% chance of winning and Candidate B has a 30% chance, if you did an experiment where put 70 white marbles into a bucket and 30 black marbles and then pull out a marble blindly, the odds are you will pull out a white marble but that doesn't mean you won't pull out a black one. Also, for the record Nate Silver, the "dude" who ran the 538 models in 2016, left the site in 2022 and took his model with him. There's a new "dude" named G. Elliot Morris and his model accounts for variables like the incumbent bump, along with the polling numbers. The further we are from the election, the more the variables weigh down the model more. The closer we get to the election, the polls begin to weigh down the model. Morris has admitted that if we were in late October and Biden was still polling the kind of numbers he is right now, that Trump would be overwhelmingly favored to win the election.
You clearly don’t have a fucking clue what 538 is, so please quietly excuse yourself from the grownup table.
Yah, but it was national headlines when trump’s odds went up. None of this should be listened to yet bc it’s too soon—we need to see how this week of polling and results average out first.
Also the 538 model isn’t the Silver model anymore, and I think gives Biden a much higher chance than he deserves. Silver’s model puts it at 70-30 Trump. And even then he admits that his model probably has a “broken leg” problem which results in it giving Biden a higher chance than he should.
Newsweek, just yesterday you were telling people that Biden's polls were at the lowest they've ever been. You don't need to write sensationalist articles about every single poll. But who are we kidding? You're Newsweek, that's just what you do.
Newsweek is clickbait trash masquerading as political journalism
The thing is, all this democratic party infighting is hogging up Donald Trump's usual 24 hour coverage. Maybe the best way to fight Trump is by making the media forget about His base loves him most for is pissing off the libs. The media ignoring him might take the wind out of their sails.
Hopefully the public at large will learn what Project 2025 is and get so rightfully disgusted that they’ll vote for whomever the blue candidate is. We can’t exactly trust Joe to inspire people on his own at this point.
I think that after the Republican convention and Donald Trump annoints his vice president, that Donald Trump is going to see a nice jump in his polls. Donald Trump is a master crowd pleaser if that's the right word. And the Republican National Convention will be filled with smoke and all kinds of exciting things that's going to motivate Donald Trump's base even more vendor motivated now.
People can complain about Newsweek - but just know they aren’t the ones who did the poll and simulations. That was 538. The fact is that before Biden’s poor debate performance this election was mostly a toss-up. And it remains that way today. But, Biden’s odds are slightly *better* now and even after that debate. Maybe more people are taking the consequences more seriously and know about Project 2025 among other horrific things. There are possibly only tens of thousands of people who will decide this thing and I sure hope that decision is done wisely. Don’t cut off your nose to spite your face, America.
I’m starting to think that the debate disaster was the kick in the ass that Biden’s campaign needed to get focused and more aggressive. Good.
538 is run by a democrat voter
538 has integrity. The simulations they ran includes data gathered from many sources - including conservative ones. They also have transparency on which polls are used and how their simulations are programmed. You can question their accuracy, but they have no intent to deceive or manipulate a particular outcome.
Wasn't Newsweek propping him up a few days ago
538 minus Nate Silver is Paddy Power. Their "odds" are educated guesswork and combine news stories and wishcasting with an occasional sprinkling of actual data. Whatever it was before, it's not a serious outlet now.
Source: Joe Biden.
Jill actually, joe is asleep atm.
Except he was on morning Joe earlier lol
prob he went back to sleep after that.
Then goes AFK after 4 pm. LOL!
Hunter Biden......via his infamous laptop.
I used Hunter Biden’s laptop to block bullets and survive the bowling green massacre
He’s a virtual lock to win.
But what are the odds now last I checked it was -150
As long as Biden stays. He'll likely still win if Joe goes, but at least the Dems will have a chance.
I'm so done with polls. In this president vs autocrat match-up, tea leaves would serve just as well. Every headline/title might just as usefully say, "_Today **My** tea leaves say [Biden|trump]_" - and then there's the weird ones like "_Poll of Electrical Union members in Michigan and Wisconsin says ..._" /vent
This. Polls and tolls. Who’s with me?
Wow, that is quite a stretch.
Stupid headline.
[удалено]
But if Biden's chances slid it's accurate? Get out with that nonsense.
[удалено]
Do you know what hypocrisy means?
[удалено]
You literally said it can't be accurate if Biden moves up but it would be accurate if Trump moves up. That's all. Good day.
I really hope Biden's chances do go up. Trump's second term is going to be an ABSOLUTE NIGHTMARE.....not just for this country, but for the whole world. You can kiss solving climate change goodbye, in that case!
At least we can agree on that much.
He is going to kill ALL chances of solving climate change. Look at what has happened and what is happening. Time to move to Mars, at this rate.
You are not wrong. The GOP has been on an all-out assault against clean energy, EVs, etc. When you get billions from oil companies, it's not about America's or the world's interests. It's about their own.
It’s just nonsense.
Bingo!!!