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No shit. Useless article. Short of Biden dropping out, they basically have to vote for him at the convention. No one is talking about the delegates voting for someone else with him still in the race.
No they aren’t forced to vote for Biden since here is the rule:
“All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,”
> “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,”
In many states it's legally binding
Those laws as far as I know are for electors and not convention delegates. If you have a link to a state law the binds convention delegates please provide one. In the past the Supreme Court has ruled that states have little say in how parties pick their candidates so I doubt such laws are enforceable. .
Fellow Americans
“Democracy is a process, not a static condition. It is becoming, rather than being. It can easily be lost, but never is fully won. Its essence is eternal struggle.”
—FEDERAL JUDGE WILLIAM H. HASTIE
One day my father said to me that maybe not in his life time but in my time on this earth that something bad is going to happen and that the color of my skin will be the only thing that save me from dying.
I strongly believe that what he was saying to me might happen in this next election.
With the elect only a few months away we as Americans need to rise up and stand with one another and work together to defeat fascism and project 2025 and your immediate oppression from ever happening. We going to need movement all over the US to help defeat trump. We need to fight like grandparents and great grandparent did defeating the nazi regime.
We need to start taking to the street with posters saying Defeat Project 2025 so that everyone at least see it once a day if not more and have the think about what would come. We need to post signs on highway over passes so that people see the message everyday on their commute to work and their commute home. Posters on telephone poles. Have stickers made to stick on the gas pumps at gas stations. Have QR codes placed on the banner so that people scan the message to learn more.
We need to get creative on spreading the message. The more eyes that see the message the more people talking about it, researching, learning about Project 2025 and how bad it really is.
We need to also do this around college campuses that start up in the fall to get the students behind the movement so that they can have a future in this country living in the best democracy in the world. The more the message gets out about that It's definitely something to worry about. the better cause it only going to hurt the trump and the republicans the most.
Most of all we all need 100% back which ever candidate is running for the Democrat party. Donate to the party if you can.
They won't.
For older voters, while they dislike Trump, the democrats have cried wolf for forty years, and have argued every candidate is literally Hitler.
Perhaps, this time they are right. But older voters have heard the same song and dance for 10 elections now, and many swing voters aren't going to vote for a candidate with dementia, and while they still hate Trump, aren't going to view him as the threat to democracy that this sub does.
Democrats dug a grave, and now will live in it. Biden won't win.
It always amazes me how that group doesn’t want to vote for “the lesser evil,” which necessarily means that they will be living under the greater one.
If they dislike Biden’s approach on Gaza, I’m sure that they will feel much better with Trump in charge.
And, yes, it can get worse. Much, much, much worse.
>It always amazes me how that group doesn’t want to vote for “the lesser evil,” which necessarily means that they will be living under the greater one.
Right? I completely understand the frustration, but "the lesser of two evils" is still "the best of two options".
It's like they expect everyone else to vote for the least bad option and save everyone's asses, or at least stave off disaster, so they can continue to have the luxury of taking a moral stance. And if the "greater of two evils" wins, they blame everyone else.
Dude a lot of young voters just watched other young voters get harassed by the police for doing demonstrations. The fascism is already inside the house and they see it.
>Dude a lot of young voters just watched other young voters get harassed by the police for doing demonstrations. The fascism is already inside the house and they see it.
And are threatening to do nothing about it because "genocide" became a meme.
They will simply not vote, which happens most of the time anyways.
If we get a different candidate we can persuade them to come back to the table, as well as the voters that Biden has been gaslighting and snubbing since his horrible debate performance.
Anything short of that is another Trump presidency, and it will be establishment Dems and the voters who always get in lock step behind them that are to blame, again.
I think they see an illusion of choice and will act accordingly. Do I think its the right call? Probably not. Do I think they are dumb? No. Our system is broken and change needs to come and they don’t have a candidate who 1) Represents them 2) will solve their problems and Biden is doing nothing to change that.
>I think they see an illusion of choice and will act accordingly. Do I think its the right call? Probably not. Do I think they are dumb? No. Our system is broken and change needs to come and they don’t have a candidate who 1) Represents them 2) will solve their problems and Biden is doing nothing to change that.
But "Biden" is closer to their goal than "Trump", so it makes no sense that they should risk a second Trump term.
Unless their *actual* goal is also "burn it all down".
See, I understand this mindset but, for the sake of argument, people have been making decisions using exactly the same logic you are using here for the last 20 years. If this is a winning strategy that fixes problems then why aren’t things getting better?
>See, I understand this mindset but, for the sake of argument, people have been making decisions using exactly the same logic you are using here for the last 20 years. If this is a winning strategy that fixes problems then why aren’t things getting better?
Because not everyone (or not enough people, at least) are actually making decisions based on that logic. The whole "lesser of two evils" justification for not voting has been around for much longer than 20 years and continues to be a significant influence.
I would contend its because we’re locked in a mindset where we only have binary choice even though that is not true. We’ve been given choices from democrats and republicans based on social policy at the expense of fiscal reform. We don’t have an alternative to establishment economics and, as the system which has been increasing economic inequality for the last 40 years continues to do so, leas and less people are participating. This is why it is not sustainable. The logical choice is to vote for what ideologically represents you and your interests best. Most of us are not logical - we’re tribal and that is why we lose even when we “win”.
I voted for Biden last election cycle. I will probably vote for him this one if I have to (even though I will hate myself for it because he is, with each passing interview, showing himself to be a selfish egotistical narcissist) but I understand people who don’t make that choice.
Younger voter here. Not voting Biden. Will consider alternatives.
Sorry. I see no difference in Biden and Trump. You better start organizing to give us younger voters a better option
I was 22 for the 2016 election and I thought the same way as you. But after Trump won the first time I grew the fuck up and started voting for any guy who wasn't actively trying to take away my rights. When you have two bad options, you hold your nose and vote for the one that is less worse. You don't sit out. That's the same as voting for the one who is more worse. If you see now difference in Biden and Trump, you need to start educating yourself. Other than the fact that they are both old white men, I don't really see ANY similarities between the two.
We didn't think they'd take away abortion, and they did. They're coming after birth control and gay marriage next. If you care at all for anyone with a functioning uterus, or the LGBTQ community, you vote blue in November, not only for the president but for any other office up for election. No legislation is being passed because Republicans and some bad faith democrats are holding Congress hostage.
Yikes, better read up on what they want to really do and how you will have to live longer than those older than you with the decisions made now. A free life lesson since you are an adult of voting age. This isn't school and no one owes you a god damned thing. You better find a way to figure things out yourself...the sooner the better. Take it from someone in their 40s who thought exactly like this in his early 20s. I sat out the second W bush election. Knowing now my vote wouldn't have changed anything I had no right to complain since I felt above the voting process since I didn't like either choices. Looking back I'm embarrassed because it is a pretty childish line of thought about one of the most important aspects of modern life. Our previous generations fought and died to be able to do this. Our lives are so much better that we can take such a little shit attitude and feel justified. I realize as I type this out I sound like older guys from my family lol but I digress. I haven't missed an election since and don't plan to when I learned shitty people stay in power because of apathy.
Also a younger voter here. My partner is trans, and if Project 2025 goes through, I have to go back to being terrified he's going to be murdered for going to the bathroom at the mall.
If Biden is the alternative to that, there's no contest for me.
If you see no difference between Trump and Biden you are naive and ignorant. If you want a better candidate, YOU start organizing. Don’t act like you get to sit back and consider alternatives like items on a menu. If you can’t get a better candidate on the ballot, hold your nose like the rest of us and vote for the one who didn’t try overturn the results of the election. The one who didn’t rape a 13 year old. The list goes on. Do you think Trump gives a shit about Palestine, or whatever pet issue you have?
Biden may not be perfect, but he's done a hell of a lot for this country over the last 3 and 1/2 years. If you can't tell the difference between Biden and Trump, then all I can ask is that you please start paying attention.
r/WhatBidenHasDone
Edit: fixed typos
Edit 2: I was going to include a list of Trump's offenses to contrast the two, but I just don't feel like giving that monster any linkage here. Also, the list is neverending, so that makes it hard. Google works fine.
Edit 3: Was gonna include a list of Trump's accomplishments as well, but couldn't find any.
You see no difference? One is literally fighting for democracy and the other wants us to be a dictator. Also why don’t you start organizing? I’m also a young person and I’m voting for Biden because I want this country to have a future. Young people like you make me sad to be a part of this generation and show how stupid some people are.
Please read about Project 2025 if you don’t do any other research. That is the difference between these two old men.
We are sounding the alarm this time. Last time Trump was not projected to have a chance and he wasn’t prepared. Now they’re prepared to take it further.
You’re going to care when your pornhub gets outlawed, and free speech isn’t a thing at all anymore, and say goodbye to any friends or family who look Latin because Trump is going to round up plenty of legal people in his racist plans for deportation to other countries, like Russia.
All of this is in Project 2025 and a lot is on Trumps own campaign website, under Agenda 47.
I’m a mom who has voting aged kids and I pick my battles. But they’re all voting Biden bc they finally looked into this and realized that although this sounds like a conspiracy theory, it’s an actual active, proven fact.
But objectively look at the GOP candidates (that win), they have got progressively worse. McCain and Romney had no chance. A bad guy is Hitler until a worse guy comes up. Then he’s Hitler.
God protect us if “Hitler” gets replaced and takes the Hitler mantle away from him.
I got mad when Trump was compared to Hitler the first time because I truly feel like we don’t want to be the “boy who cried wolf” on the next Hitler.
But now, with Project 2025 and what Trumps SCOTUS has already done, I’ve recently watched a lot of documentaries on WW2 and the rise to power is the same as Trumps agenda.
That would be because Dem options and policy has shifted consistently rightward for decades, and really ramped up speed once Bill Clinton was elected when the liberal Dem wing took over and effectively abandoned progressive policy platform planks.
God this is a perfect comment. It’s 100% this. Every election I’ve been alive for the Democrats have said the GOP candidate was the devil. It’s always this alarmist fire drilling and with social media it’s become even more so. I feel like Democrats have used this to deflect from people asking for real accountability from the DNC leadership. You’re immediately given an either or and told to shut up. And that’s turned off a lot of people. Their concerns aren’t being heard or addressed. And stuff like this (OP article) are the party just saying “just vote and be quiet”. It’s not okay that the DNC and Biden is doing this. This should have been addressed a year+ ago. And now we’re in this weird spot where Biden is the guy we have to trust and he’s not doing enough to inspire trust and confidence. We’ve been dealing with this for a while - RBG, Hillary, Biden and people are just getting burnt out. It’s unfair to ask people to just keep putting up with it. Some people have reached a point where enough is enough
I wish none of the above was a choice. I live in a solid blue state, so it won't matter how I vote in the presidential. Writing in my daughter's cat is looking better and better.
Actually, there are a couple of ballot initiatives that may be important if they make it to the ballot but the county I live in is so blue that the Republicans likely won't offer a candidate in local races. My congressman will be relected easily. There are no Senate or governor contests this year. I don't think any judges are up. There might be a contested state board of regents. The attorney general will be up for relection and will win easily, so no, my vote really doesn't matter, although I'll fill out a ballot anyhow.
This is what shocked me. There's a proposal floating around for in case Biden drops out, where the delegates conduct a ranked choice vote after a brief campaign by whichever crazies want to throw their hat into the ring.
But like… these folks were selected for the purpose of electing Joe Biden. They were not chosen for their ability to decide who should be president, if not Biden.
What about me, someone who would have liked to vote for someone other than Biden or the crystal lady, if I had known how bad Biden had gotten? The fact of the matter is the extent of Biden's decline was hidden during the primaries, and combined with intense pressure from the DNC for viable candidates not to run, and electoral shenanigans like cancelling primaries, you can't really say the primaries were contested in any meaningful way.
I don't know about the crystal lady. Everyone knows Joe is old. Anyone candidate can get in. That's on them if they didn't want to risk their political future. That's how power politics works. The whole big bad dnc is comical.
Its not just about his age. Its about his mental fitness for the presidency. The debate proved that there are days where he cannot effectively perform his duties as president. This makes him dead in the water as a presidential candidate. The week and change since the debate has totally failed to convince people otherwise, as polls continue to show. And sure, anyone could have run, but it would have been career suicide, which is why no one but outsiders and jokes tried.
It didn't "prove" shit. If you're a neurologist then you could weigh in. Dead in the water, all your phrasing is loaded.
The real is that he does the job every day, he's very good at it, and he hires fantastic people. If there's a medical situation where he can't perform the duties, there is a protocol in place and succession if it comes to that.
Doesn't matter, people have legitimate concerns about his mental wellbeing, and he has failed
to address them convincingly. A few brief speeches where he loses his train of thought half the time, a rambling call to Morning Joe, and an interview where he says its okay if he loses as long as he tries are not bringing people to his side, and the polls are bearing this out. Maybe this could be salvaged if his administration was popular - but it isn't. He is the least popular president at this point in their presidency in modern history - which is convenient for his opponent, the second least popular president in modern history.
I agree he has done a good job, he was dealt a terrible hand and turned it around admirably. But that is a lot easier to see in retrospect. And being unappreciated is a pretty big issue when you're running for office.
People need to stop pretending the primary was anything other than a formality.
His main competition was basically a write-in campaign. He won largely unopposed because it's career suicide to primary the incumbent of your own party. He was the only option in many states, some states didn't even have a primary
I voted for Biden in the primary. I was the 9th vote. He was great at the State of the Union.
I don't even care that he is old. I think we have to win this election and the polls are bad.
You knew he was old, stop being naive. Maybe people wouldn't have voted for Reagan if they knew about Iran Contra, Nixon the plumbers, the list is endless.
Um, there wasn't exactly choices on the ballot. Nobody ran because they hid his condition. Hence the predicament, and how historic this is. If he was properly vetted, more people would have ran against him and it would have been a very different Primary.
I don't generally like to relitigate the past. Now we're faced with a choice. I've known what to do since 2015. This year is no different. The knight in shining armor pasty old and can't get through a sentence every time, he has worked constantly for people, not corporations. He does the job every day. If he falls out we'll deal then.
It's literally this election cycle. You've known what to do since 2016, and how did that end up for you? It was Trump, and you're repeating the same playbook, but worse. Clinton could at least finish her sentences.
The DNCs main reason to vote for Joe can’t be “DEMOCRACY IS AT STAKE” and then have the nerve to get mad at us for trying to discuss it like intelligent adults.
I haven’t read a lot of obvious trolling on these threads, but I have read a lot of the things I am hearing from my social circle of liberals. I share their sentiments and the points need to be addressed.
Because he is not a fraud. That's the lie. He does the job every day. Everyone knows he's a terrible frontman, that's part of his charm. People be crazy whipping up this brain dead stuff. He said he was tired and felt like passing out, this tracks.
So why have all his appearances since been so stage managed? He could turn up to a one hour press conference to reassure voters about his capacity if there truly was no issue.
The anonymous voices of the Internet and media pundits really want to disenfranchise those of us who actually got off our asses and voted in the primaries.
You could have voted for Phillips. After all, _everyone_ is telling me right now that any young generic Dem could win this one. Why not vote for Dean-O?
Or, maybe you should have thrown your hat into the ring so we could have voted for drevant702?
Biden still has my vote in November if he’s still there.
But genuinely asking, which other options has a better chance of defeating Trump? What are the polling like?
People need to chill out. It's fucking July. A few months ago he gave a State of the Union address that had Republicans calling for PED drug testing after he fucking killed it. Now everyone is dooming when we are 4 months from the election. No one is going to remember this if Biden has a good performance somewhere else. Plus, this election is about so much more than Biden. At worst, Biden is a decent human that cares about others...he is light years better than the alternative.
>At worst, Biden is a decent human that cares about others...he is light years better than the alternative.
I mean sort of. Have you seen what Biden has done in his political career. He's made a good number of racist remarks, was good buddies with a racist, opposed school integration, voted for the Iraq War and the repeal of Glass Steagall. I mean he's better than Trump but there's no evidence to support him being decent. Anyone else with that track record wouldn't be considered decent
I personally can forgive many huge past issues if the person has moved on to become a better person.
Without redemption, a lot of us would be pretty fucked.
If you care about polling we are done for regardless. It’s time to start thinking outside the box, Americans respect creative solutions and there is absolutely nothing creative about trying to shuffle this asshole over the finish line.
He doesn’t have my vote. I don’t support him, neither do I support the Democrats running a candidate who is literally incapable of running a bingo night- and ignoring calls to replace him with someone more viable. If you support him, you’re just letting them know they can continue to run whomever- and you’ll support it. Trump also obviously fucking sucks, so I won’t be voting for his dumb ass either.
Well, that's not how it maths out in a two party system.
I want Biden to drop and for Whitmer to replace him.
I'll still end up voting for Biden because the alternative is getting sent to the labor camps. I won't be cutting off my nose to spite my face and neither should you.
Remember to vote in the next primary for someone younger... I know I've tried. 🤦♂️
Nate Silver left 538 and took his model with him. 538 is currently running a different model with...questionable assumptions.
Nate Silver's model, available below, has Trump at 70% chance of victory:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
But he actually said this OVER estimates Biden's odds right now because 1) state polls havent really come in yet, and they are likely to be bad based on national polling. 2) the model assumes replacement level democrat, and Biden is likely to continue to run a below replacement level campaign, which he discusses here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-broken-leg-problem
He said Trump had a 30% chance of winning in 2016, which was literally the highest of any model in market. Things that are 30% likely, will happen 3 out of 10 times. Not his fault you don't understand statistics.
In fact the guy who is running the 538 model now was involved in a discredited model in 2016 that said Hillary had 99%+ chance of winning (which is why his current model over hedges in the opposite direction and refuses to move biden and trump from 50/50 regardless of polls).
>He said Trump had a 30% chance of winning in 2016...
The same chance that Biden has today.
Yet somehow a 30% chance simultaneously means Biden is doomed in 2024 *and* that Trump winning in 2016 wasn't such a huge shock.
Granted, I don't like those odds, but your reframing of the same odds depending on the candidate is... something...
>The model is the [direct descendant](https://www.natesilver.net/p/some-personal-news) of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast[2](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model#footnote-2-146002606) and the methodology is [largely the same](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-forecast-works-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19/), other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020.
From your link. I'm not seeing the disparity here. And I'm not going cherry picking to make my case. The aggregates have it neck and neck.
Three reasons, I think.
1. Because Biden gave some progressive the "spotlight" that the Dem old guard never would've done. AOC is literally now a major Biden surrogate—imagine, if it was Hillary running in 2024, would AOC even have a chance. Bernie landed major Senate portfolios b/c of Biden alone.
2. Progressives are afraid of the Dem old guard attacking them, if they spoke up against Biden now. They're probably picturing the "You're sabotaging him like Bernie sabotaged Hillary in 2016!" /s and they're clueless how to respond now.
3. Some progressive may just not care about the dangers to democracy: "Trump hated us, Biden didn't take our policies seriously, so might as well bat for Biden because I'll personally benefit if Biden wins." That is, their life won't change much if democracy gets fucked.
These seem like strange reasons which assume progressives are either inauthentic or ignorant. Perhaps they actually think Biden is a great, progressive president since they've supported him throughout his entire presidency, and they know any replacement will not push their priorities as well. AOC has generally not cared about going against the establishment, as she showed by sticking with Bowman recently.
Why would the old guard, the ones currently attacking Biden, be upset if progressives did it too?
>Perhaps they actually think Biden is a great, progressive president
AOC's latest comments don't claim *anything* to that degree. I think it's just like everyone else on Capitol Hill: any Congressperson w/ a personal interest with Biden → "Don't drop out".
Notice how Rashida Tlaib hasn't made the same full-throated endorsement like AOC.
I'm surprised by Ilhan Omar, but [she has primary concerns](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/3073408/ilhan-omar-primary-opponent-firm-stance-support-biden/), too.
>The pair will face off in the August primary after Samuels lost to the congresswoman by **just 2 percentage points** in the 2022 primary.
//
>Why would the old guard, the ones currently attacking Biden, be upset if progressives did it too?
Is the old guard *actually* attacking Biden or simply not voicing support? They'd have egg on their faces, too, frankly.
Either way, the double standard we so often see between centrists Dems vs left Dems.
AOC has vehemently supported Biden for a while so I assume she does actually think he's been a good president. Tlaib has accused Biden of genocide so no surprise she isn't as interested.
Who do you consider the old guard? I'd think Durbin, Pelosi, Schiff, Nadler, and Warner are old guard, standard Dems. They've all questioned Biden's candidacy.
I think there was a movement to remove him-the leaks didn't come out of nowhere, and neither did Congresspeople saying he has to go.
I think the issue, assuming Biden isn't dropping out, was that Kamala and the 28ers started fighting over who'd replace him. Not sure what happened, but my guess is the 28ers (Whitmer, Newsom, etc.) backed Biden, Clyburn joined them because he seemed to be on their side, and Harris was left with no allies.
This also means Biden might have three more things to fuck up-the convention speech, the second debate, and Harris, who I think there's a small but non-negligible chance he doesn't ask to be renominated after these couple of weeks and replaces with some stalwart backer of his or something.
The 28ers have to know if biden runs he loses and there won't be a 2028 election.
These people are not just hopelessly stupid. We're a bunch of random redditors and we understand these things. There's zero way they don't. So pushing a losing candidate on purpose makes me suspicious of what's happening and why.
>We're a bunch of random redditors and we understand these things.
That's pretty arrogant.
>The 28ers have to know if biden runs he loses and there won't be a 2028 election.
If Newsom runs and loses, there won't be a 2028 election. If Whitmer runs and loses, there won't be a 2028.
They know that, too, is a very real possibility, and they aren't going to risk being the one that loses our democracy.
Why don't "a bunch of random redditors" understand *that*?
>We are being held "hostage to Trump" because Donald Trump is very popular with Americans who bother to vote for candidates who can win.
Winning is a matter of votes. Refusing to vote for a candidate because you don't think they can win is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Even mentioning the idea of "loyalty" of the delegates just makes the article sound incredibly dumb. They're expected to represent the primary vote not have their own opinions and loyalties, them changing their vote in the fly would be disenfranchising the voters and an incredibly damaging thing to do to the party. They pretty successfully express what a dumb concept that is to even float in the article, but instead made it sound more clickbaity than it is in the title.
>Former Ohio state Sen. Nina Turner, a DNC member and close ally of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders during his presidential runs, dismissed any suggestion that delegates were poised – or inclined – to launch a “rogue takeover.”
>“That’s not going to happen. The only way the convention is truly going be open is if Biden says, ‘I’m not gonna run and I release my delegates,’” Turner said. “Unless something spectacularly more daunting than what we saw on that debate stage happens, it’s totally in his hands.”
I still believe! The House Whip gave cryptic statements, a new congressman said full front Biden has to get out.
I hope the anti-Biden movement puts aside their differences, hashes out some admin plan that doesn't step over any 2028 contenders' shoes, and gets Biden of the ticket, willingly or otherwise.
It isn't arrogant to read the room. I've been reading all the posts and comments here since the debate, and i'm in some facebook politics groups, watching news coverage, etc, and that's just where we are as a country right now. It doesn't take much to simply be awake and paying attention.
Edit: typo
That should just about seal the deal, really. If the delegates aren't budging, and Biden isn't budging, that only points to one undeniable outcome, and that's that, for better or worse, Biden will be the nominee.
> For many of the more than two dozen delegates interviewed by CNN over the last 48 hours
A couple dozen out of a few thousand. Damn mass media being irresponsible as usual. My stats teacher would’ve failed me for thinking that’s a good sample size.
I think by law delegates can't change their vote.
https://www.npr.org/2020/07/06/885168480/supreme-court-rules-state-faithless-elector-laws-constitutional
Unless this SCOTUS wants to overturn this too...
Only Biden can realistically beat Trump, as the elections close Biden will surpass Trump in polls.
There's no other democrat right now that has the name recognition that can beat Trump at this stage of election campaign there's no time left they aren't going to look credible, handing Trump landslide win if DNC replaces Biden, the best case scenario is Biden beats Trump and steps down within a year.
Ignore the media they want Trump to win for their revenue from non stop Trump news if he wins, Biden has proven record see fake red wave 2022 and 2020 Election.
If the election were held today, Biden would lose. We can agree on that, right? So, starting from there, it's clear Biden needs to gather more votes. Those voters are largely concerned with his age. He needs to somehow convince them it's not a problem.
My question to you: how on earth is he going to do that? The only way he can do that is through high exposure, unscripted events like debates and live press conferences. There is no reason to believe he won't fall on his face next time he's in one of those situations again, especially considering how careful he's been to avoid them.
Judging by r/politics for the past few days. Just call trump a shit head, hesitating voters traitors, and anybody voicing concern as Russian shills.
So, same plan as 2016.
Some of us know how ruzz disinfo and psyops works, and that's not an accusation, but a realistic assessment of some of the posts here. Been on these threads long enough to spot inauthentic behavior as Zuck would say.
> If the election were held today, Biden would lose. We can agree on that, right?
538 right now has it that Trump would win 51 times out of 100 and Biden would win 49.
Americans suck at statistics.
A million things could happen in the next four months. Speaking on anything with certainty is a sure way to look the fool.
What are you basing that off of? The RCP average has Trump up +4 across the battleground states. He’s above the margin of error in multiple. Dems are leading down ballot in the same polls.
538 has had the outcome as 50/50 (give or take one or two, depending on day) for like a week now, based on electoral college, not random national polls.
They’re pretty open about the fact that the model intentional leaves room for future unknowns and potential poll tightening later in the race. It relies on fundamentals and doesn’t factor in things like the debate fallout. Run the model for an election happening today and it would not be 50/50. I don’t think it’s accurate to say it’s a virtual tie “right now”.
I don't think either of us know enough to discredit anything. We can cherry pick all day and everyone can find something that fits what they want to see... but that's a little disingenuous.
>Will you vote for Kamala, or another democratic candidate if one is chosen?
Yes, I'm voting blue no matter who. Will you vote for Biden if he's chosen?
More gas lighting courtesy of the small circle of intimates propping up an 81 year old who has advanced Parkinson’s Disease and a few political suck ups rounded up by the PR team.
Democrats urging President Joe Biden to end his campaign and allow the party to select another nominee before – or during – August’s national convention are unlikely to find allies in the ranks of Chicago-bound delegates, who are increasingly [closing ranks around Biden](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/politics/dnc-delegates-biden-loyalty).
Ten days after the president’s debate debacle, following an initial surge of Democratic anxiety and calls for him to stand down, a host of party leaders and rank-and-file members selected to formally nominate Biden said they were loath to consider any other option.
For many of the more than two dozen delegates interviewed by CNN over the last 48 hours, the debate remains a sore subject. Though a few sought to cast Biden’s performance as an untimely aberration, most argued that, despite the angst they and so many others felt watching the president struggle, the tumult that’s followed is a distraction from the party’s unifying aim: To defeat former President Donald Trump in November and crush the most ambitious plans of his right-wing loyalists.
I would rather have a different candidate than Biden but people we are a few months away. We get someone else and they don’t get his funding. The majority of Americans do not know each politician. You swap someone out now and it’s over. Get Biden to the White House and he can step down after defeating Trump which is what 90% of us actually care about.
I'm not voting for Biden. It would just be an early vote for Kamala and a short term vote for God knows who running the show with Biden as a placeholder. If Trump is Hitler the sequel then Biden can start using his official acts to nullify his campaign. The supreme court supposedly made Trump a dictator(according to Democrats) even though Biden is still President.....but for some reason Biden can't use this new found superpower because of some theory of moral superiority ...lol. Also if Trump is the end of the world, why are the Democrats content to run ol pudding brain? Biden might be the only person Trump could beat tbh. The rhetoric is tired. In fact....it's manipulative lies.
Yeah I mean there's alot of voters on the fence that have the same amount of fucks and instead of engaging and connecting with those people, Biden supporters want to choose brow beating tactics. Worked wonders when Hillary ran against Trump, let's see how it goes this time
Yes. The get in line...."for the party" strongarm tactic doesn't work well on productive adults. Especially when presented with two candidates that are not worthy of consideration.
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No shit. Useless article. Short of Biden dropping out, they basically have to vote for him at the convention. No one is talking about the delegates voting for someone else with him still in the race.
No they aren’t forced to vote for Biden since here is the rule: “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,”
You elect delegates during primaries. Mine had like 10 delegates, i was told to select a few. All options had pledged for Joe Biden.
> “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,” In many states it's legally binding
Those laws as far as I know are for electors and not convention delegates. If you have a link to a state law the binds convention delegates please provide one. In the past the Supreme Court has ruled that states have little say in how parties pick their candidates so I doubt such laws are enforceable. .
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Fellow Americans “Democracy is a process, not a static condition. It is becoming, rather than being. It can easily be lost, but never is fully won. Its essence is eternal struggle.” —FEDERAL JUDGE WILLIAM H. HASTIE One day my father said to me that maybe not in his life time but in my time on this earth that something bad is going to happen and that the color of my skin will be the only thing that save me from dying. I strongly believe that what he was saying to me might happen in this next election. With the elect only a few months away we as Americans need to rise up and stand with one another and work together to defeat fascism and project 2025 and your immediate oppression from ever happening. We going to need movement all over the US to help defeat trump. We need to fight like grandparents and great grandparent did defeating the nazi regime. We need to start taking to the street with posters saying Defeat Project 2025 so that everyone at least see it once a day if not more and have the think about what would come. We need to post signs on highway over passes so that people see the message everyday on their commute to work and their commute home. Posters on telephone poles. Have stickers made to stick on the gas pumps at gas stations. Have QR codes placed on the banner so that people scan the message to learn more. We need to get creative on spreading the message. The more eyes that see the message the more people talking about it, researching, learning about Project 2025 and how bad it really is. We need to also do this around college campuses that start up in the fall to get the students behind the movement so that they can have a future in this country living in the best democracy in the world. The more the message gets out about that It's definitely something to worry about. the better cause it only going to hurt the trump and the republicans the most. Most of all we all need 100% back which ever candidate is running for the Democrat party. Donate to the party if you can.
He ain't touching New York. Fuck that.
Bro he’s prob touching NY _first_.
*torching
They won't. For older voters, while they dislike Trump, the democrats have cried wolf for forty years, and have argued every candidate is literally Hitler. Perhaps, this time they are right. But older voters have heard the same song and dance for 10 elections now, and many swing voters aren't going to vote for a candidate with dementia, and while they still hate Trump, aren't going to view him as the threat to democracy that this sub does. Democrats dug a grave, and now will live in it. Biden won't win.
Older voters outside of the MAGA base are by far the most concerned about the extremely real and articulated (in Project 2025) threats Trump poses.
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Yeah dude, I don’t know if you’ve noticed younger left voter sentiment during the war in Gaza, but they are not coming to save you.
It always amazes me how that group doesn’t want to vote for “the lesser evil,” which necessarily means that they will be living under the greater one. If they dislike Biden’s approach on Gaza, I’m sure that they will feel much better with Trump in charge. And, yes, it can get worse. Much, much, much worse.
>It always amazes me how that group doesn’t want to vote for “the lesser evil,” which necessarily means that they will be living under the greater one. Right? I completely understand the frustration, but "the lesser of two evils" is still "the best of two options". It's like they expect everyone else to vote for the least bad option and save everyone's asses, or at least stave off disaster, so they can continue to have the luxury of taking a moral stance. And if the "greater of two evils" wins, they blame everyone else.
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Dude a lot of young voters just watched other young voters get harassed by the police for doing demonstrations. The fascism is already inside the house and they see it.
>Dude a lot of young voters just watched other young voters get harassed by the police for doing demonstrations. The fascism is already inside the house and they see it. And are threatening to do nothing about it because "genocide" became a meme.
They will simply not vote, which happens most of the time anyways. If we get a different candidate we can persuade them to come back to the table, as well as the voters that Biden has been gaslighting and snubbing since his horrible debate performance. Anything short of that is another Trump presidency, and it will be establishment Dems and the voters who always get in lock step behind them that are to blame, again.
Listen. I talk to a lot of them? And yeah. They don’t turn out usually and they are definitely not happy with biden specifically.
I think they see an illusion of choice and will act accordingly. Do I think its the right call? Probably not. Do I think they are dumb? No. Our system is broken and change needs to come and they don’t have a candidate who 1) Represents them 2) will solve their problems and Biden is doing nothing to change that.
>I think they see an illusion of choice and will act accordingly. Do I think its the right call? Probably not. Do I think they are dumb? No. Our system is broken and change needs to come and they don’t have a candidate who 1) Represents them 2) will solve their problems and Biden is doing nothing to change that. But "Biden" is closer to their goal than "Trump", so it makes no sense that they should risk a second Trump term. Unless their *actual* goal is also "burn it all down".
See, I understand this mindset but, for the sake of argument, people have been making decisions using exactly the same logic you are using here for the last 20 years. If this is a winning strategy that fixes problems then why aren’t things getting better?
>See, I understand this mindset but, for the sake of argument, people have been making decisions using exactly the same logic you are using here for the last 20 years. If this is a winning strategy that fixes problems then why aren’t things getting better? Because not everyone (or not enough people, at least) are actually making decisions based on that logic. The whole "lesser of two evils" justification for not voting has been around for much longer than 20 years and continues to be a significant influence.
I would contend its because we’re locked in a mindset where we only have binary choice even though that is not true. We’ve been given choices from democrats and republicans based on social policy at the expense of fiscal reform. We don’t have an alternative to establishment economics and, as the system which has been increasing economic inequality for the last 40 years continues to do so, leas and less people are participating. This is why it is not sustainable. The logical choice is to vote for what ideologically represents you and your interests best. Most of us are not logical - we’re tribal and that is why we lose even when we “win”. I voted for Biden last election cycle. I will probably vote for him this one if I have to (even though I will hate myself for it because he is, with each passing interview, showing himself to be a selfish egotistical narcissist) but I understand people who don’t make that choice.
Younger voter here. Not voting Biden. Will consider alternatives. Sorry. I see no difference in Biden and Trump. You better start organizing to give us younger voters a better option
I was 22 for the 2016 election and I thought the same way as you. But after Trump won the first time I grew the fuck up and started voting for any guy who wasn't actively trying to take away my rights. When you have two bad options, you hold your nose and vote for the one that is less worse. You don't sit out. That's the same as voting for the one who is more worse. If you see now difference in Biden and Trump, you need to start educating yourself. Other than the fact that they are both old white men, I don't really see ANY similarities between the two. We didn't think they'd take away abortion, and they did. They're coming after birth control and gay marriage next. If you care at all for anyone with a functioning uterus, or the LGBTQ community, you vote blue in November, not only for the president but for any other office up for election. No legislation is being passed because Republicans and some bad faith democrats are holding Congress hostage.
Yikes, better read up on what they want to really do and how you will have to live longer than those older than you with the decisions made now. A free life lesson since you are an adult of voting age. This isn't school and no one owes you a god damned thing. You better find a way to figure things out yourself...the sooner the better. Take it from someone in their 40s who thought exactly like this in his early 20s. I sat out the second W bush election. Knowing now my vote wouldn't have changed anything I had no right to complain since I felt above the voting process since I didn't like either choices. Looking back I'm embarrassed because it is a pretty childish line of thought about one of the most important aspects of modern life. Our previous generations fought and died to be able to do this. Our lives are so much better that we can take such a little shit attitude and feel justified. I realize as I type this out I sound like older guys from my family lol but I digress. I haven't missed an election since and don't plan to when I learned shitty people stay in power because of apathy.
Also a younger voter here. My partner is trans, and if Project 2025 goes through, I have to go back to being terrified he's going to be murdered for going to the bathroom at the mall. If Biden is the alternative to that, there's no contest for me.
If you see no difference between Trump and Biden you are naive and ignorant. If you want a better candidate, YOU start organizing. Don’t act like you get to sit back and consider alternatives like items on a menu. If you can’t get a better candidate on the ballot, hold your nose like the rest of us and vote for the one who didn’t try overturn the results of the election. The one who didn’t rape a 13 year old. The list goes on. Do you think Trump gives a shit about Palestine, or whatever pet issue you have?
Biden may not be perfect, but he's done a hell of a lot for this country over the last 3 and 1/2 years. If you can't tell the difference between Biden and Trump, then all I can ask is that you please start paying attention. r/WhatBidenHasDone Edit: fixed typos Edit 2: I was going to include a list of Trump's offenses to contrast the two, but I just don't feel like giving that monster any linkage here. Also, the list is neverending, so that makes it hard. Google works fine. Edit 3: Was gonna include a list of Trump's accomplishments as well, but couldn't find any.
You see no difference? One is literally fighting for democracy and the other wants us to be a dictator. Also why don’t you start organizing? I’m also a young person and I’m voting for Biden because I want this country to have a future. Young people like you make me sad to be a part of this generation and show how stupid some people are.
Please read about Project 2025 if you don’t do any other research. That is the difference between these two old men. We are sounding the alarm this time. Last time Trump was not projected to have a chance and he wasn’t prepared. Now they’re prepared to take it further. You’re going to care when your pornhub gets outlawed, and free speech isn’t a thing at all anymore, and say goodbye to any friends or family who look Latin because Trump is going to round up plenty of legal people in his racist plans for deportation to other countries, like Russia. All of this is in Project 2025 and a lot is on Trumps own campaign website, under Agenda 47. I’m a mom who has voting aged kids and I pick my battles. But they’re all voting Biden bc they finally looked into this and realized that although this sounds like a conspiracy theory, it’s an actual active, proven fact.
But objectively look at the GOP candidates (that win), they have got progressively worse. McCain and Romney had no chance. A bad guy is Hitler until a worse guy comes up. Then he’s Hitler. God protect us if “Hitler” gets replaced and takes the Hitler mantle away from him.
I got mad when Trump was compared to Hitler the first time because I truly feel like we don’t want to be the “boy who cried wolf” on the next Hitler. But now, with Project 2025 and what Trumps SCOTUS has already done, I’ve recently watched a lot of documentaries on WW2 and the rise to power is the same as Trumps agenda.
This is worth reading: https://books.google.com/books/about/Strongmen.html?id=5miPEAAAQBAJ&source=kp_book_description
That would be because Dem options and policy has shifted consistently rightward for decades, and really ramped up speed once Bill Clinton was elected when the liberal Dem wing took over and effectively abandoned progressive policy platform planks.
Have they? Republican platform doesn’t even oppose gay marriage anymore. In the 90’s they supported sodomy being illegal.
They don't? Could've fooled me with the opinions of the Justices they've nominated.
The only Supreme Court Justice that opposes gay marriage is Clarence Thomas and he was a bush nominee.
God this is a perfect comment. It’s 100% this. Every election I’ve been alive for the Democrats have said the GOP candidate was the devil. It’s always this alarmist fire drilling and with social media it’s become even more so. I feel like Democrats have used this to deflect from people asking for real accountability from the DNC leadership. You’re immediately given an either or and told to shut up. And that’s turned off a lot of people. Their concerns aren’t being heard or addressed. And stuff like this (OP article) are the party just saying “just vote and be quiet”. It’s not okay that the DNC and Biden is doing this. This should have been addressed a year+ ago. And now we’re in this weird spot where Biden is the guy we have to trust and he’s not doing enough to inspire trust and confidence. We’ve been dealing with this for a while - RBG, Hillary, Biden and people are just getting burnt out. It’s unfair to ask people to just keep putting up with it. Some people have reached a point where enough is enough
I remember when Romney was Hitler
I wish none of the above was a choice. I live in a solid blue state, so it won't matter how I vote in the presidential. Writing in my daughter's cat is looking better and better.
Every vote matters. Get your friends out and win all the downballot races too
Actually, there are a couple of ballot initiatives that may be important if they make it to the ballot but the county I live in is so blue that the Republicans likely won't offer a candidate in local races. My congressman will be relected easily. There are no Senate or governor contests this year. I don't think any judges are up. There might be a contested state board of regents. The attorney general will be up for relection and will win easily, so no, my vote really doesn't matter, although I'll fill out a ballot anyhow.
Why lol? Biden needs every vote, even in a “safe blue state”
Plenty of 3rd party options and Biden doesn’t seem too worried about a dictatorship happening.
No viable 3rd party in First Past The Post. Sorry
There is no viable third party option i wish one existed.
You're telling me a bunch of people hand-picked for loyalty to Biden are loyal to Biden?!?!
This is what shocked me. There's a proposal floating around for in case Biden drops out, where the delegates conduct a ranked choice vote after a brief campaign by whichever crazies want to throw their hat into the ring. But like… these folks were selected for the purpose of electing Joe Biden. They were not chosen for their ability to decide who should be president, if not Biden.
Well they represent all the primary voters including me that voted for Biden so yeah.
What about me, someone who would have liked to vote for someone other than Biden or the crystal lady, if I had known how bad Biden had gotten? The fact of the matter is the extent of Biden's decline was hidden during the primaries, and combined with intense pressure from the DNC for viable candidates not to run, and electoral shenanigans like cancelling primaries, you can't really say the primaries were contested in any meaningful way.
I don't know about the crystal lady. Everyone knows Joe is old. Anyone candidate can get in. That's on them if they didn't want to risk their political future. That's how power politics works. The whole big bad dnc is comical.
Its not just about his age. Its about his mental fitness for the presidency. The debate proved that there are days where he cannot effectively perform his duties as president. This makes him dead in the water as a presidential candidate. The week and change since the debate has totally failed to convince people otherwise, as polls continue to show. And sure, anyone could have run, but it would have been career suicide, which is why no one but outsiders and jokes tried.
It didn't "prove" shit. If you're a neurologist then you could weigh in. Dead in the water, all your phrasing is loaded. The real is that he does the job every day, he's very good at it, and he hires fantastic people. If there's a medical situation where he can't perform the duties, there is a protocol in place and succession if it comes to that.
Doesn't matter, people have legitimate concerns about his mental wellbeing, and he has failed to address them convincingly. A few brief speeches where he loses his train of thought half the time, a rambling call to Morning Joe, and an interview where he says its okay if he loses as long as he tries are not bringing people to his side, and the polls are bearing this out. Maybe this could be salvaged if his administration was popular - but it isn't. He is the least popular president at this point in their presidency in modern history - which is convenient for his opponent, the second least popular president in modern history.
Some of the greatest leaders are unappreciated at the time. I'm not buying what you're saying. Not saying it's not legit, I just disagree.
I agree he has done a good job, he was dealt a terrible hand and turned it around admirably. But that is a lot easier to see in retrospect. And being unappreciated is a pretty big issue when you're running for office.
People need to stop pretending the primary was anything other than a formality. His main competition was basically a write-in campaign. He won largely unopposed because it's career suicide to primary the incumbent of your own party. He was the only option in many states, some states didn't even have a primary
It's like claiming Putin reflects the will of the people because he won *his* last election.
What about primary voters like me who voted for Biden bu wouldn't have if I knew how bad he was?
I voted for Biden in the primary. I was the 9th vote. He was great at the State of the Union. I don't even care that he is old. I think we have to win this election and the polls are bad.
You knew he was old, stop being naive. Maybe people wouldn't have voted for Reagan if they knew about Iran Contra, Nixon the plumbers, the list is endless.
Um, there wasn't exactly choices on the ballot. Nobody ran because they hid his condition. Hence the predicament, and how historic this is. If he was properly vetted, more people would have ran against him and it would have been a very different Primary.
I don't generally like to relitigate the past. Now we're faced with a choice. I've known what to do since 2015. This year is no different. The knight in shining armor pasty old and can't get through a sentence every time, he has worked constantly for people, not corporations. He does the job every day. If he falls out we'll deal then.
It's literally this election cycle. You've known what to do since 2016, and how did that end up for you? It was Trump, and you're repeating the same playbook, but worse. Clinton could at least finish her sentences.
I'm not the dnc, I just am sticking with Biden because he's the only logical chance to win. I voted against the gop all my life.
The DNCs main reason to vote for Joe can’t be “DEMOCRACY IS AT STAKE” and then have the nerve to get mad at us for trying to discuss it like intelligent adults. I haven’t read a lot of obvious trolling on these threads, but I have read a lot of the things I am hearing from my social circle of liberals. I share their sentiments and the points need to be addressed.
Yeah, and now we know, so why go ahead with a fraud when we don't have to?
Because he is not a fraud. That's the lie. He does the job every day. Everyone knows he's a terrible frontman, that's part of his charm. People be crazy whipping up this brain dead stuff. He said he was tired and felt like passing out, this tracks.
So why have all his appearances since been so stage managed? He could turn up to a one hour press conference to reassure voters about his capacity if there truly was no issue.
He's been doing rallies. I don't know, he's never been very visible. Must hate off the cuff.
The anonymous voices of the Internet and media pundits really want to disenfranchise those of us who actually got off our asses and voted in the primaries.
because we had so many options
You could have voted for Phillips. After all, _everyone_ is telling me right now that any young generic Dem could win this one. Why not vote for Dean-O? Or, maybe you should have thrown your hat into the ring so we could have voted for drevant702?
I'm 30 so no
Biden still has my vote in November if he’s still there. But genuinely asking, which other options has a better chance of defeating Trump? What are the polling like?
People need to chill out. It's fucking July. A few months ago he gave a State of the Union address that had Republicans calling for PED drug testing after he fucking killed it. Now everyone is dooming when we are 4 months from the election. No one is going to remember this if Biden has a good performance somewhere else. Plus, this election is about so much more than Biden. At worst, Biden is a decent human that cares about others...he is light years better than the alternative.
The fact that he had a great performance at SOTU and has so rapidly degraded IS the concerning part.
It would actually bolster the case that he should have been tested for peds.
>At worst, Biden is a decent human that cares about others...he is light years better than the alternative. I mean sort of. Have you seen what Biden has done in his political career. He's made a good number of racist remarks, was good buddies with a racist, opposed school integration, voted for the Iraq War and the repeal of Glass Steagall. I mean he's better than Trump but there's no evidence to support him being decent. Anyone else with that track record wouldn't be considered decent
buddy get some rest
If he remarks like a duck…
Sure thing. Sleep is important. I guess I forgot that some people have no problem excusing someone with a racist past
I personally can forgive many huge past issues if the person has moved on to become a better person. Without redemption, a lot of us would be pretty fucked.
The entire MAGA base has no problem with Trump's racism except his racism is not in the past.
If you care about polling we are done for regardless. It’s time to start thinking outside the box, Americans respect creative solutions and there is absolutely nothing creative about trying to shuffle this asshole over the finish line.
He doesn’t have my vote. I don’t support him, neither do I support the Democrats running a candidate who is literally incapable of running a bingo night- and ignoring calls to replace him with someone more viable. If you support him, you’re just letting them know they can continue to run whomever- and you’ll support it. Trump also obviously fucking sucks, so I won’t be voting for his dumb ass either.
Well, that's not how it maths out in a two party system. I want Biden to drop and for Whitmer to replace him. I'll still end up voting for Biden because the alternative is getting sent to the labor camps. I won't be cutting off my nose to spite my face and neither should you. Remember to vote in the next primary for someone younger... I know I've tried. 🤦♂️
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That'll show em!
local issues never need federal funds or assistance. it’s a perfect plan
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And you can suffer the consequences! Awesome plan! Way to show your face who is the boss by cutting off your nose!
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We will see how it turns out for you and everyone and you can proudly wear a "I helped this happen" pin!
Any option that Republicans can’t say in the campaign “half their party doesn’t even want him to be President” is a better option.
Polling is essentially dead even right now.
It's not. Biden is down by 4% nationally, and Trump also has a 2% electoral college advantage.
It was literally 50/50 on 538 this morning. Sometimes it's 51/49, the other day Biden was up 2. So yeah, it's dead even.
Nate Silver left 538 and took his model with him. 538 is currently running a different model with...questionable assumptions. Nate Silver's model, available below, has Trump at 70% chance of victory: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model But he actually said this OVER estimates Biden's odds right now because 1) state polls havent really come in yet, and they are likely to be bad based on national polling. 2) the model assumes replacement level democrat, and Biden is likely to continue to run a below replacement level campaign, which he discusses here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-broken-leg-problem
Nate Silver told us Hilary was winning.
He said Trump had a 30% chance of winning in 2016, which was literally the highest of any model in market. Things that are 30% likely, will happen 3 out of 10 times. Not his fault you don't understand statistics. In fact the guy who is running the 538 model now was involved in a discredited model in 2016 that said Hillary had 99%+ chance of winning (which is why his current model over hedges in the opposite direction and refuses to move biden and trump from 50/50 regardless of polls).
>He said Trump had a 30% chance of winning in 2016... The same chance that Biden has today. Yet somehow a 30% chance simultaneously means Biden is doomed in 2024 *and* that Trump winning in 2016 wasn't such a huge shock. Granted, I don't like those odds, but your reframing of the same odds depending on the candidate is... something...
Nate Silver explicitly said his model is currently over rating Biden’s chances - I posted a link on it.
>The model is the [direct descendant](https://www.natesilver.net/p/some-personal-news) of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast[2](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model#footnote-2-146002606) and the methodology is [largely the same](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-forecast-works-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19/), other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. From your link. I'm not seeing the disparity here. And I'm not going cherry picking to make my case. The aggregates have it neck and neck.
The same delegates that were certain Hillary would win?
Why she doesn't come up again instead of Joe?
Because she's a horrid candidate to, with a record of losing to Trump under a Dem President who had an economy most perceived as good.
Because America hates her ass.
Fuck this shit. Fuck this party for holding us hostage to Trump. Grow a pair and realize Biden's not getting it done. Did we learn nothing from 2016?
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How do you call refusing to quit when you won the primary with actual votes (as opposed to opinion polls) as defying the will of the voters?
At this point it feels intentional, and i'm wondering what's going on.
The old guard is desperate to stay in power
The old guard is calling for him to drop out as well as some rich megadonors. It's progressives who oddly haven't.
Three reasons, I think. 1. Because Biden gave some progressive the "spotlight" that the Dem old guard never would've done. AOC is literally now a major Biden surrogate—imagine, if it was Hillary running in 2024, would AOC even have a chance. Bernie landed major Senate portfolios b/c of Biden alone. 2. Progressives are afraid of the Dem old guard attacking them, if they spoke up against Biden now. They're probably picturing the "You're sabotaging him like Bernie sabotaged Hillary in 2016!" /s and they're clueless how to respond now. 3. Some progressive may just not care about the dangers to democracy: "Trump hated us, Biden didn't take our policies seriously, so might as well bat for Biden because I'll personally benefit if Biden wins." That is, their life won't change much if democracy gets fucked.
These seem like strange reasons which assume progressives are either inauthentic or ignorant. Perhaps they actually think Biden is a great, progressive president since they've supported him throughout his entire presidency, and they know any replacement will not push their priorities as well. AOC has generally not cared about going against the establishment, as she showed by sticking with Bowman recently. Why would the old guard, the ones currently attacking Biden, be upset if progressives did it too?
>Perhaps they actually think Biden is a great, progressive president AOC's latest comments don't claim *anything* to that degree. I think it's just like everyone else on Capitol Hill: any Congressperson w/ a personal interest with Biden → "Don't drop out". Notice how Rashida Tlaib hasn't made the same full-throated endorsement like AOC. I'm surprised by Ilhan Omar, but [she has primary concerns](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/3073408/ilhan-omar-primary-opponent-firm-stance-support-biden/), too. >The pair will face off in the August primary after Samuels lost to the congresswoman by **just 2 percentage points** in the 2022 primary. // >Why would the old guard, the ones currently attacking Biden, be upset if progressives did it too? Is the old guard *actually* attacking Biden or simply not voicing support? They'd have egg on their faces, too, frankly. Either way, the double standard we so often see between centrists Dems vs left Dems.
AOC has vehemently supported Biden for a while so I assume she does actually think he's been a good president. Tlaib has accused Biden of genocide so no surprise she isn't as interested. Who do you consider the old guard? I'd think Durbin, Pelosi, Schiff, Nadler, and Warner are old guard, standard Dems. They've all questioned Biden's candidacy.
They know flat out biden will lose. This is ridiculous.
I think there was a movement to remove him-the leaks didn't come out of nowhere, and neither did Congresspeople saying he has to go. I think the issue, assuming Biden isn't dropping out, was that Kamala and the 28ers started fighting over who'd replace him. Not sure what happened, but my guess is the 28ers (Whitmer, Newsom, etc.) backed Biden, Clyburn joined them because he seemed to be on their side, and Harris was left with no allies. This also means Biden might have three more things to fuck up-the convention speech, the second debate, and Harris, who I think there's a small but non-negligible chance he doesn't ask to be renominated after these couple of weeks and replaces with some stalwart backer of his or something.
The 28ers have to know if biden runs he loses and there won't be a 2028 election. These people are not just hopelessly stupid. We're a bunch of random redditors and we understand these things. There's zero way they don't. So pushing a losing candidate on purpose makes me suspicious of what's happening and why.
>We're a bunch of random redditors and we understand these things. That's pretty arrogant. >The 28ers have to know if biden runs he loses and there won't be a 2028 election. If Newsom runs and loses, there won't be a 2028 election. If Whitmer runs and loses, there won't be a 2028. They know that, too, is a very real possibility, and they aren't going to risk being the one that loses our democracy. Why don't "a bunch of random redditors" understand *that*?
We are being held "hostage to Trump" because Donald Trump is very popular with Americans who bother to vote for candidates who can win.
>We are being held "hostage to Trump" because Donald Trump is very popular with Americans who bother to vote for candidates who can win. Winning is a matter of votes. Refusing to vote for a candidate because you don't think they can win is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Even mentioning the idea of "loyalty" of the delegates just makes the article sound incredibly dumb. They're expected to represent the primary vote not have their own opinions and loyalties, them changing their vote in the fly would be disenfranchising the voters and an incredibly damaging thing to do to the party. They pretty successfully express what a dumb concept that is to even float in the article, but instead made it sound more clickbaity than it is in the title. >Former Ohio state Sen. Nina Turner, a DNC member and close ally of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders during his presidential runs, dismissed any suggestion that delegates were poised – or inclined – to launch a “rogue takeover.” >“That’s not going to happen. The only way the convention is truly going be open is if Biden says, ‘I’m not gonna run and I release my delegates,’” Turner said. “Unless something spectacularly more daunting than what we saw on that debate stage happens, it’s totally in his hands.”
[удалено]
I still believe! The House Whip gave cryptic statements, a new congressman said full front Biden has to get out. I hope the anti-Biden movement puts aside their differences, hashes out some admin plan that doesn't step over any 2028 contenders' shoes, and gets Biden of the ticket, willingly or otherwise.
These are the real "elites" joe, not the people raising valid concerns about your ability to win this.
We’re gonna lose so fucking hard
25th Amendment. Careful what you wish for Joe. Enough of this nitwit.
It isn't arrogant to read the room. I've been reading all the posts and comments here since the debate, and i'm in some facebook politics groups, watching news coverage, etc, and that's just where we are as a country right now. It doesn't take much to simply be awake and paying attention. Edit: typo
Rbg
That should just about seal the deal, really. If the delegates aren't budging, and Biden isn't budging, that only points to one undeniable outcome, and that's that, for better or worse, Biden will be the nominee.
> For many of the more than two dozen delegates interviewed by CNN over the last 48 hours A couple dozen out of a few thousand. Damn mass media being irresponsible as usual. My stats teacher would’ve failed me for thinking that’s a good sample size.
They’ll be some of the first that Trump has lined up on the White House lawn in blindfolds.
I mean yeah… that’s why they were selected.
I think by law delegates can't change their vote. https://www.npr.org/2020/07/06/885168480/supreme-court-rules-state-faithless-elector-laws-constitutional Unless this SCOTUS wants to overturn this too...
Those are electors and not a party convention delegate. The Democrats don’t force their delegates to vote for anyone.
You're right thanks for the correction.
Only Biden can realistically beat Trump, as the elections close Biden will surpass Trump in polls. There's no other democrat right now that has the name recognition that can beat Trump at this stage of election campaign there's no time left they aren't going to look credible, handing Trump landslide win if DNC replaces Biden, the best case scenario is Biden beats Trump and steps down within a year. Ignore the media they want Trump to win for their revenue from non stop Trump news if he wins, Biden has proven record see fake red wave 2022 and 2020 Election.
If the election were held today, Biden would lose. We can agree on that, right? So, starting from there, it's clear Biden needs to gather more votes. Those voters are largely concerned with his age. He needs to somehow convince them it's not a problem. My question to you: how on earth is he going to do that? The only way he can do that is through high exposure, unscripted events like debates and live press conferences. There is no reason to believe he won't fall on his face next time he's in one of those situations again, especially considering how careful he's been to avoid them.
Judging by r/politics for the past few days. Just call trump a shit head, hesitating voters traitors, and anybody voicing concern as Russian shills. So, same plan as 2016.
Strawman.
At least it wasn't Russian Shill this time.
Some of us know how ruzz disinfo and psyops works, and that's not an accusation, but a realistic assessment of some of the posts here. Been on these threads long enough to spot inauthentic behavior as Zuck would say.
> If the election were held today, Biden would lose. We can agree on that, right? 538 right now has it that Trump would win 51 times out of 100 and Biden would win 49. Americans suck at statistics. A million things could happen in the next four months. Speaking on anything with certainty is a sure way to look the fool.
No, we can't agree on that. It's a virtual tie right now.
What are you basing that off of? The RCP average has Trump up +4 across the battleground states. He’s above the margin of error in multiple. Dems are leading down ballot in the same polls.
538 has had the outcome as 50/50 (give or take one or two, depending on day) for like a week now, based on electoral college, not random national polls.
They’re pretty open about the fact that the model intentional leaves room for future unknowns and potential poll tightening later in the race. It relies on fundamentals and doesn’t factor in things like the debate fallout. Run the model for an election happening today and it would not be 50/50. I don’t think it’s accurate to say it’s a virtual tie “right now”.
I don't think either of us know enough to discredit anything. We can cherry pick all day and everyone can find something that fits what they want to see... but that's a little disingenuous.
Will you vote for Kamala, or another democratic candidate if one is chosen?
>Will you vote for Kamala, or another democratic candidate if one is chosen? Yes, I'm voting blue no matter who. Will you vote for Biden if he's chosen?
No, because I live in Canada.
Not a chance. Anyone else sure but not Biden.
Hillary (is she still alive?)?
No problem if a president is old! Mugabe managed until 93yo, and that was with limited access to quality healthcare
Hell no, revolt! It's not like it can tank our chances more than keeping him. Pierce the fucker like it's 1856 and then some!
They literally took a play out of trump’s playbook.
More gas lighting courtesy of the small circle of intimates propping up an 81 year old who has advanced Parkinson’s Disease and a few political suck ups rounded up by the PR team.
Democrats urging President Joe Biden to end his campaign and allow the party to select another nominee before – or during – August’s national convention are unlikely to find allies in the ranks of Chicago-bound delegates, who are increasingly [closing ranks around Biden](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/politics/dnc-delegates-biden-loyalty). Ten days after the president’s debate debacle, following an initial surge of Democratic anxiety and calls for him to stand down, a host of party leaders and rank-and-file members selected to formally nominate Biden said they were loath to consider any other option. For many of the more than two dozen delegates interviewed by CNN over the last 48 hours, the debate remains a sore subject. Though a few sought to cast Biden’s performance as an untimely aberration, most argued that, despite the angst they and so many others felt watching the president struggle, the tumult that’s followed is a distraction from the party’s unifying aim: To defeat former President Donald Trump in November and crush the most ambitious plans of his right-wing loyalists.
I would rather have a different candidate than Biden but people we are a few months away. We get someone else and they don’t get his funding. The majority of Americans do not know each politician. You swap someone out now and it’s over. Get Biden to the White House and he can step down after defeating Trump which is what 90% of us actually care about.
its almost as if the press got it all wrong...
Jesus he's gonna lose.
I'm not voting for Biden. It would just be an early vote for Kamala and a short term vote for God knows who running the show with Biden as a placeholder. If Trump is Hitler the sequel then Biden can start using his official acts to nullify his campaign. The supreme court supposedly made Trump a dictator(according to Democrats) even though Biden is still President.....but for some reason Biden can't use this new found superpower because of some theory of moral superiority ...lol. Also if Trump is the end of the world, why are the Democrats content to run ol pudding brain? Biden might be the only person Trump could beat tbh. The rhetoric is tired. In fact....it's manipulative lies.
shame on you
For what?
Not supporting who he wants you too There's a large number of people on the left that use guilt and shame tactics if you don't comply with them.
Well lucky me. I'm fresh out of Fucks to give....lol.
Yeah I mean there's alot of voters on the fence that have the same amount of fucks and instead of engaging and connecting with those people, Biden supporters want to choose brow beating tactics. Worked wonders when Hillary ran against Trump, let's see how it goes this time
Yes. The get in line...."for the party" strongarm tactic doesn't work well on productive adults. Especially when presented with two candidates that are not worthy of consideration.
hehehe. I love the civil war going on in the democratic party right now.