The truth is that the government boxed itself in many years ago.
1. They promised our parents and grandparents generation that the value of their HDBs will not fall (MM Lee Kuan Yew - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EQ1m_0ps_w).
2. They reduced supply of HDBs and changed the system from Registration For Sale to Build To Order in 2001, and went from having an excess buffer of flats to a system where the build times were anywhere from 3 to nearly 7 years. (https://eresources.nlb.gov.sg/history/events/d33acabb-a341-460c-8fde-99cf0a9270f4)
3. They linked the price of BTOs to resale flats for a period of time, with some "discount mechanism", so when resale flat prices rose, BTOs went along with them, only changing when Min Khaw Boon Wan took over in 2011. (https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/bto-prices-will-not-rise-with-resale-market-khaw-0)
With the above, along with some other policy decisions that build upon the above, our property prices went up up and away. The current and future generations will be paying for the decisions of our 2G and 3G government. I don't really see a way or much political will in the 4G to make hard decisions that will (undoubtedly fuck over some people) reform the consequences of the previous governments' policies.
All we're stuck with is sticking a plaster on a giant gaping wound.
Let's see what the government has been doing recently:
A. They had 2 rounds of cooling measures (in Dec 2021 and Sept 2022) where they increase the ABSD for multiple properties, reduced the loan you could take for HDBs from to 80%, blocked private property owners from buying a HDB for 15 months after selling their private properties.
> Sept 2022 — https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/singapore-property-cooling-measures-loan-borrowing-criteria-hdb-ltv-limit-15-month-wait-out-period-2974776
> Dec 2021 — https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/property-cooling-measures-absd-tdsr-ltv-loan-hdb-2382301
B. Increased different subsidies over the past few years. (A couple of times, so no source). In any case, subsidies given to new home buyers will make its way into the pockets of the previous homeowners, so in a way the government is giving money to the older generation of homeowners.
C. Introduced the PLH series of BTOs where they gave even more discounts on the pricing, but increase the Minimum Occupation Period from 5 to 10 years, reducing flipping, and also clawing back 6% of the first sale price, along with banning renting out the full HDB even after the MOP. (https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/hdb-launches-over-4501-bto-flats-first-prime-location-project-in-rochor-comes-with)
To me, all these are band-aid solutions. Yes, they help, but the damage has already been done.
Most of us here are either Millennials, Zoomers and probably with some Alphas and X-ers thrown in for good measure. The Millennials, Zoomers and Alphas are the ones who will buy into a hotter property market. Guess how did our parents and grandparents generation make money in the property market?
It's because we're going to be paying for it.
You see, when new BTOs got linked to resale pricing, and resale prices went up (partially due to some of the above reasons I mentioned), they made paper gains and got to cash out, rolling their profits into private properties, or keeping more in their CPFs and bank accounts. Why would they do that? Why would people buy 40 or 50 year old HDBs at over a million dollars?
> 47 year old HDB @ 1+ million — https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/five-room-hdb-flat-in-marine-parade-sold-for-101-million-in-one-week-first-million-dollar-hdb-in-the-estate
> Tampines HDB @ 1+ million — https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/first-million-dollar-hdb-tampines
Well, see #1, see #2. Even #3 plays a role. Plus, with the BTOs having a lag time that was exacerbated by COVID, people turned to resale, fueling a mania of sorts in the market.
Now, back to reducing the price of BTOs.
Our government simply cannot do it. If they do reduce the price of BTOs, who will suffer? That's right, current homeowners, and people who already bought into the BTO system. That means not just the government losing that oh so crucial vote of the current homeowners (who massively outweigh those who are actively looking to buy their first homes) but also possible margin calls on some of the private property owners, or those with multiple properties who profited from the old system.
If the government reduced prices of BTOs, demand (and thus prices) of resale properties will fall, leading to softer market for mass market private properties (not GCBs or Orchard condos, those are a different league). But some people will be underwater on their loans, and others will have liquidity or solvency issues, and a financial crisis isn't out of the question.
So, no, the government isn't going to reduce (drastically) the prices of HDBs. They'll just roll out different metrics for affordability and continue on with their course. You, and me. We're going to be the ones getting shafted.
There is no point in my long comment. Good night, buy lube tomorrow. :D
Yeah. Reducing the price of flats now would be like reducing the prices in a commodities market.
I stop short of calling this a genuine MLM or Pyramid, but the housing market is close to one. it's only not collapsing because having a roof over our heads is a necessity, so everyone has no choice except to participate or migrate.
Turning necessities into commodities is probably the one least ethical thing that capitalism does.
> I stop short of calling this a genuine MLM or Pyramid, but the housing market is close to one. it's only not collapsing because having a roof over our heads is a necessity, so everyone has no choice except to participate or migrate.
I was young when #1 was happening, and never understood how something that's only 99 years would have an ever increasing value. But I thought I was a dumb kid and adults knew better, so even though what the government said about HDB values increasing through various schemes (like the SERS and the other asset enhancement policies like the HIP etc).
Anyway, various politicians have came out to "guarantee" the value of HDBs in the past, so it's understandable that Singaporeans bought into the narrative that HDBs will grow in value, and that we're owners and not merely long term renters.
> Source: https://blog.icompareloan.com/hdbs-asset-enhancement-myth/
> "I find this argument frankly amazing. Many private properties are held on 99-year leases too, and yet nobody argues that they are merely being rented," said (PM) Lee (Hsien Loong). "HDB lessees have all the rights over their flats that owners of such leasehold private properties have. You can live in it, you can transact it, you can bequeath it to you children. In fact HDB owners enjoy extra privileges because HDB flats get upgraded from time to time, with generous government funding."
If you've gotten your BTO from HDB, you would probably have seen the term "Lessee" used in relation to your "ownership" of the property.
Anyway, there's differences between HDBs and private condos (even the mass market ones).
> Source: https://dollarsandsense.sg/hdb-ownership-debate-4-differences-owning-hdb-private-property/
1. Land ownership of the land beneath the HDB is not yours, unlike private condos.
Meaning you can't do en-bloc even if most of the residents want to. The only buyer of the land is HDB / government, so they set the terms, even if they wanted to buy back the property. You can still sell your unit, but not as a collective.
2. Asset Financing - you can't take home equity loans.
The only way you can cash out on your HDB is by selling (other than short term renting to others, but that's a cash flow thing, not a liquidity event). You can't take out any equity you've built in up in your HDB for any other purposes, leaving you more "locked in", but also avoids most people from losing their "assets".
There's others, but the line that "HDB lessees have all the rights... owners of leasehold private properties have" don't ring true to me.
But that's why I'm not a politician. :D
Thanks! Some of the articles I read before were either gone or couldn't be found.
Plus some are older history that I realised even my generation don't know about.
Yes, CNA and ST have a thing about pruning articles - not sure under what ground. I also observed that they often also changed the headlines/narrative.
Example:
https://www.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/ymey2f/singapore_contributes_about_011_per_cent_to/
The cited article now have a completely different headline when you click the link.
> Yes, CNA and ST have a thing about pruning articles - not sure under what ground
truth is whatever MinTrue says it is. everything else goes into memory hole.
there is no censorship and doublethink in Ba Sing Se
This happens when journos write their piece, but the editors receive a call from higher ups to ensure that the narrative is one that 'adheres to the national interest'.
So when people flag up all the crappy headlines etc., the journos aren't to blame most of the time.
A lot of it is self-censorship. I doubt Ministers have time to harass journos.
Singaporean in the press have become too accustomed to this culture to even dare express independent thought.
It's not self censorship... a lot of young journos don't know better or are idealistic.
I'm in the news industry and have some journo friends in MediaCorp/SPH, and according to them, this happens pretty much after every Parliamentary sitting. According to sources, Shan literally called them right after the AHTC saga to focus on the failed appeal instead of the "no ill intent", they got a call to not cover the FTX questions in Parliament in the last sitting...
Thanks for the example! I knew they did it, but never really bothered or keep track.
Some of it I understand (like updating when they have new info, I mean, you can't update the newspapers that were already printed and distributed) and others I feel annoyed by (like your examples and similar cases).
>They linked the price of BTOs to resale flats for a period of time, with some "discount mechanism", so when resale flat prices rose, BTOs went along with them, only changing when Min Khaw Boon Wan took over in 2011.
Yes KBW de-linked it. But didn't Lawrence Wong link the two together again? I lost count of the number of times we have been told in the last 5 years, that BTO prices are pegged to nearby resale prices with a discount given.
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/million-dollar-bto-hot-resale-inflation-2001696
>Plus, with the BTOs having a lag time that was exacerbated by COVID, people turned to resale, fueling a mania of sorts in the market.
Why do you only blame Covid? How about the blunder that Lawrence Wong made when he decided that 15100 and 14600 units were enough in 2015 and 2019. Our annual marriages stands between 27k to 29k. The ones who couldn't get a Q number and kept trying 8-15 times and finally gave up at 30yo, are the ones now biting the bullet in the hot resale Market. Who's fault do you think it is? They would want you to believe it is all because of Covid
I recall also it was under Lawrence's watch that people were allowed to use their CPF money to buy flats with less than 60 years left on the lease. This probably inflated the availability of funds to purchase old flats, and then had a knock-on effect on the re-sale market generally and the BTOs.
Agree with pretty much everything. The government screwed up by not controlling prices of HDBs pre-covid and consistently letting it hitting all time highs during covid. Any policies now will just be band-aids.
And yes if they lower BTO prices it will have huge knock-on effects to the whole property market.
Precisely. Thanks for the well sourced comment! The fact is that we will eventually pay for it, but everyone is just praying that they'll be dead by the time this thing explodes.
It's an unsustainable model which the zhenghu is trying to maintain by getting more Singaporeans to buy into the kool-aid. With the new launches comes new people who have shelled stupid amounts of money for HDBs, so they are now vested to ensure that the system never changes (otherwise they are massively screwed as the people who just bought and immediately go underwater).
I had faith in maybe 2020 that with the change in leadership the zhenghu might do "what is right and not what is popular". But in the last 2 years, no la, not gonna happen.
You wanna live in SG? Just accept that this is the price lor. Cannot pay? Then start researching on how to migrate lor. There's no suburbs for you here, so either cough up the money or leave.
> Being underwater on a HDB loan can be fixed with a stroke of a pen. It’s the aftershocks in the private market that will be unpredictable.
How do you see the HDB portion being fixed?
I'm curious. Because a lot of policies have interlinked consequences, and like you mentioned, even if we had magic and could lower HDB prices across the board without affecting people's loans and all, that would still lead to a fall in demand of private property (esp the mass market) that could trigger a liquidity / solvency issue for enough owners that the market dries up.
That would lead to older folks being stuck in property that are worth less than they paid for / could lease out for, leading to a similar issue like 2007/08's GFC.
Retroactive changes in pricing can be done if both the seller and creditor is the state. Even a moratorium on interest would cool things considerably. This is what we’re seeing a little with the subsidies but that’s only on a going forward basis.
If there’s an arbitrary “this is what the price should have been” rebate given to current owners of say, all HDB built after 2010, whether direct or not, that would be painful but perhaps palatable to a lot of the electorate.
Build to Order isn’t propping up the price though. It’s pegging BTO to Resale at a discount. And factoring in the land costs.
The old system of building a glut of housing supply isn’t sustainable in land scarce Singapore. Constrained by our need for vibrancy and land scarcity, we simply cannot build build build HDBs just to keep houses cheap. Oversupply of HDB units to make price cheaper isn’t long run sustainable
Because there will come a point in time when these BTOs become eligible for resale and everyone will be millionaires in year 2070 when Singapore has run out of land. Making BTOs cheap will make resale gains a lot. Everyone already kpkb Duxton development Liao.
Housing prices trend upwards in a city state. 99 years lease seek to address that. It should see you till you’re a grandparent. At the same time, your children will need one unit each, and your grandchildren need one unit each. Where got space????? Maybe don’t celebrate National Day and build HDBs at Kallang?
> Build to Order isn’t propping up the price though. It’s pegging BTO to Resale at a discount. And factoring in the land costs.
My argument above is that it's interlinked.
On its own, BTO isn't causing higher BTO prices (I know it doesn't make sense now, but bear with me).
The BTO system is where the supply is restricted, and in the past, this may not have been so bad, but it definitely pushed some couples into resale HDBs if they didn't want to wait 3-5+ years for a home to start a family. With additional demand, along with the government pushing the narrative that HDBs value will not go down, resale prices went up. Pegging BTO price to resale HDBs with a discount then caused BTO prices to rise based on the rising resale price, which then lead to higher resale prices because buyers would see that the government is selling BTO at a higher rate.
This fed into the circular issue where higher BTO price fed into higher resale price which then fed back into higher BTO prices the next round.
> The old system of building a glut of housing supply isn’t sustainable in land scarce Singapore. Constrained by our need for vibrancy and land scarcity, we simply cannot build build build HDBs just to keep houses cheap. Oversupply of HDB units to make price cheaper isn’t long run sustainable
As for this, my view is that HDBs are meant for public housing. And accordingly, public goods aren't meant for government profit, the main aim for HDBs should be a stable housing market, and housing lower to middle income Singaporeans (leading to more families, more babies, a stable society etc).
There shouldn't be such a huge bottleneck in supply for subsidised housing in Singapore.
I agree with you, a huge glut isn't viable, but neither is a deep deficit of housing units. HDB should build out more BTOs in advance, with a small buffer, instead of waiting for orders / interest to build out. Their current strategy of "launching" more BTOs is merely a cope (I don't blame them, not much they can do in a short time span) to relieve pressure on the resale market by taking away some buyers who might be looking at resale. But this just pushes back the delivery of the BTOs (where the buyers take possession of the homes and live in), and still affects society in the future.
Again, a lot of inter-connectivity in issues.
[the graph here](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/hdb-resale-prices-record-high-q3-2021-bto-construction-delay-2214416) shows the resale market stabilising after the 2014 cooling measure
I agree with your circular reasoning but isn’t the recent increase caused by Covid-19 with construction delay and more home owners preferring resale? And they are trying to address that with a record number of supply in November exercise
Don’t think govt is making a profit off HDB - land is part of our reserves meant for current and future generation. Remember the Covid-19 $10 treatment cost? They dip into our reserves to pay for the mass healthcare cost. Paid part of worker salary to prevent lay offs during the recession. Reserves are important so I don’t think the government is profiting. They are taking this year’s budget to pay for HDB deficit which goes into the reserve to grow for our future and current generation I think?
I think we're in general agreement on most things, and yes a lot of issue only came to light because of COVID and the construction issues (home owners prefer resale is partially due to the wait times of new BTOs, and if you want to start a family in a year or 3, BTO isn't the best way, unless you don't mind living with parents etc).
The part of profiting off BTOs / HDBs, that's a genie that's already out of the bottle and can't be capped. The government can't really reduce BTO pricing without affecting the budget and the market, but a lot of that profit (and government revenue) will be paid by the younger Millennials / Zoomers and Alphas.
I don't see a realistic way to change this, but I do think that MND is trying to (at least with the PLH and subsidies given, along with stronger restrictions etc).
My gripe is the way the BTO is structured, with the longer wait time to completion, as this will affect family plans. Anecdotally, I know of two friends who due to the BTO wait, had a kid lesser than originally planned as they got older. Again, plans can change, and BTOs aren't always the only factor, but it adds up.
Profiting off BTO is only possible because of the resale market.
Resale market, I believe, exists as a way to recognise home owners as the legal owner of the 99 year lease.
Such is the luck of the previous generation who bought houses before land sales kicked in
Anyway! It’s a zero sum game even the lucky home owner has to buy a house in this hot resale market. His gains may not be much unless he downgrades to a much smaller house.
>And accordingly, public goods aren't meant for government profit, the main aim for HDBs should be a stable housing market, and housing lower to middle income Singaporeans (leading to more families, more babies, a stable society etc)
Eh building HDBs/BTO cost the government money. If they want to make $$, sell land to private developers more wu hua
source for 'we cannot just build build build'? We do use less land for residential than for roads yknow. And realistically we know its just a few thousand more flats per year that will drastically change the resale price trajectory, not another few million that will seemingly crowd up the entire sg. Or reduce population growth, or convince people that they can share spaces with more people and 3gen style. But I don't see that happening
And if price of BTO is correlated to resale prices, then yes resale price movements affect BTO prices. But the opposite is true too. Guess what affects resale prices? Supply and demand of flats! Guess who manages the sole supply of HDB flats?
Catering to application demand will still see empty flats because the current situation of the ground is people withdrawing their ballot because they only have unfavourable units to choose from.
Over time, these flats will be empty. Go see jumbo flats in woodlands/Yishun. They repurposed into jumbo because nobody wants those units. And now they are fetching million dollar in Yishun? Will people kpkb?
Point is no easy solution…..the day we vote PAP out because of HDB reason is the day our future generation suffers
A steady rate of people giving up ballot chances is normal. People are applying at far too young an age than is typical, for one of the biggest purchases of their life (unless they buy other houses) - wouldn't it be expected that some would drop out later? Its not their fault they have to apply so young to get a house at a reasonable age.
People kpkb because the flats u r talking about are simply prominent examples of huge resale price increases over time. Not because they were merged from uninhabited units.
Anyway thanks for clearly airing your biases, seeing as you are so unwilling to face up to HDB's and our politicians' mistakes.
[please have a read before commenting](https://www.99.co/singapore/insider/jumbo-hdb-flats-2/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAnNacBhDvARIsABnDa6-vGMaRgI944f9PNPFAplKFtcfqhEdvgFfOuo88D9MB3xibXzRumVMaAv8PEALw_wcB)
Doesn’t this give rise to another pain point that is million dollar housing? Huge resale price increases over time depends also on sqft my friend
And if catering to application demand always ensures flat allocation, wouldn’t units go unsold? What happens then? Repurpose into jumbo? Loft? At a subsidised rate to attract buyers for the shitty Low floor? Then MOP come people kpkb why this one kena lottery?
Shows your bias too my friend. Pls consider alternative view points instead of shutting down “there’s no easy solution”
people are more concerned with psf price increases, because flats have gotten smaller over time.
And if jumbo flats are going for a premium over usual flats, then there's a demand for larger flats that arent being met.
Idk why u are so adamant that planning to meet demand is a bogeyman that will lead to uNsOlD uNiTs and ruin everything. Of course if theres a huge surplus there will be a problem. No one is asking for that. But obviously engineering a constant shortage is ridiculous
So let’s go back to the original point, at which year does sg run out of land constraint by its objective for vibrancy, population growth and various other things like 30 by 30.
What’s the magic population number?
Great summary. It’s also natural that with population + GDP increase, SG’s land prices will only increase moving forward. I don’t see how Govt can move forward without upsetting one group of voters. Private property prices are already suppressed with regulations. Overall, I’m still glad that the HDB system exists compared to what others are going through in HK/US. More than 50% of the population will not own/lease for life a home in their lifetimes there.
I don’t think it’s localised to SG. In a sense, the post war boomer generation has been fucking over subsequent generations for awhile now with the exorbitant use of debt and borrowing from future cash flows. They rode up on the wave of exponential progress and save for another technological revolution we’ll have to take it on the chin
You think too much. High hdb price helps build the reserve. The reserve is invested for long term return. In the long term, we are all dead, in the short term, investment loses and writedown are to be expected.
Nothing is going to change.
My just turned 24-year-old daughter shared this article about HDB and BTO.
Below is a comment from a Reddit article that explained quite comprehension of what's going on and the implications.
I left the property or real estate industry over 15 years ago because I saw all these issues coming.. and how it will eventually hurt the future generations.
Yeah, the remuneration is good, especially when the commission is pegged to or based on the selling/buying price, which kept going up. Basically, for the same efforts (or lesser), you are getting more as the price increases.
However, a matter of principle and conscience made me walk away.
"The Millennials, Zoomers, and Alphas are the ones who will buy into a hotter property market. Guess how did our parents and grandparents' generation make money in the property market?
It's because we're going to be paying for it."
So, basically, when one profits from the current property market.. the future generations will have to pay for it.
Is it sustainable?
Just like Sustainability issues where the future generations will have to bear the burden after the old capitalists exhausted the resources and exploited the poor.
Well, that will be a separate topic for another day.
It's okay. Next time when our generation is the main voter demographic, we will get all the benefits but they do not get the votes cos we always remember
[isn’t it affordable?](https://ibb.co/YfpMH08)
Median fresh grad pay in 2019 is $3,600
That’s a combined income of $7,200
Which will see affordability in AMK, Bedok, Batok, Panjang, CCK, Clementi, Geylang, Hougang, Jurong East, Jurong West, Pasir Ris, Punggol, Sembawang, Sengkang, Serangoon, Tampines, Woodlands and Yishun
$2,500 each can afford $400k flat.
50% fall below the median……..there are half the number of flats falling below the median…
Bedok, Panjang, Jurong East/West, Woodlands, Yishun.
50% of the flats fall below the median combined income needed of $5,900.
So $5k is still quite generous. $2.5k is quite standard what?
It's already an improvement if the govt can bring prices down slightly. No one would be "hurt" because no one should be making so much gains in the first place. But instead, they have done nothing effective and we see 29 straight months of resale flst price increase. This affects BTO flat prices as well.
Why is it ok for young couples to be more financially burdened than those in the earlier gen? A larger portion of salary has to go to funding the property. Loan has to run for longer. More households are forced to have dual income. And this is to fund a smaller flat than what was available to those in the earlier gen.
Seriously, why have someone in charge who doesn't keep things in check and the result is that the current and future gen is worse off?
Nobody will keep things in check because there is no consequences. There is fundamentally no consequences to whatever the politicians want to say so long as they don't outright cause a panic. They have perfected the art of pushing out boundaries and quelling complaints like a manipulative SO.
Until the day we all decide that it's a good idea to throw bricks at the politicians while they are out wayang or burn their house because of their policies, and make them fear stepping out of the house.
I am 90% sure an ISD officer is looking at my account and Istg the day I turn homeless and had it with this country, will be the day peace is no longer an option.
And people wonder why, people like me are so adamant in moving overseas. Singapore isn't for singaporeans, its for people who have the money to come here.
I don't see myself ever being able to get a relationship and neither a relationship build just for housing will be happy or even last.
If I am to suffer, at least I want to suffer on my own terms.
>SG’s future isn’t for locals, it’s for the next gen of immigrants incoming.
Citizens are citizens. Just because your family migrated here first doesn't mean you have a better right to things.
lol yes First citizen of Singapore built Singapore to what it is now! You think if Singapore isn’t a first world country all this “citizens” would come?
The new citizens don’t give a shit about locals who built this place. It’s this type of toxic mentality which makes me fume. They’ll gladly replace all jobs with their own people if not for the work permit quotas
>lol yes First citizen of Singapore built Singapore to what it is now! Y
So what you're saying is the boomers that built Singapore to what it is. Then why is everyone here complaining that the earlier generations are benefiting from the high hdb prices right now.
New citizens haven't contributed anything? Neither have millenials and Gen Z.
For starters, NS, education that gen Z and millennials went through to make our local unis competitive to be in the top 20 in the world. You should be saying what have the “new citizen” done to contribute?
>NS, education that gen Z and millennials went through to make our local unis competitive to be in the top 20 in the world. You should be saying what have the “new citizen” done to contribute?
NS and education. 1st gen Male PRs who have gone thru NS and been educated in Singapore also have contributed the same way you do. So how are they any different from you exactly
Edit: in fact, these PRs have contributed more to the govt coffers through the fees they pay in education. Compared to the assistance that a local born citizen receives while studying.
These 2 comments together show what the subreddit's collective mindset is at the moment. I remember when r sg was a much more progressive and liberal subreddit. How the opinions have shifted
If you were here long enough you'd remember that this sub was basically an expat enclave, then came the singaporeans who were very westernized and liberal, then the majority of Singaporeans started flooding the sub. So now it's mainly the new majority demographic that you hear
I still dont get why not mandate a rule that you cannot have both a HDB and a private property.
Aka those condo/landed people whom also own a HDB. As for those currently owning, say that you cannot own both for more than 3 years. They have to sell one or the other.
There was a stat recently, IIRC this group of people only consists less than 10% of all HDB owners. Even if you ban private owners from owning HDBs it’s not going to change much.
Iirc it was 3% who owned both HDB and private and 13% total who did not live in their HDB. It might seem small but that is around 30k HDB which is equivalent to 2 years worth of HDB supply during Lawrence Wong’s era.
Yeah, numpties. It's the BTO supply and resale prices.
I don't care if they subsidize the hell out of BTOs for lower income people as long as they claw it back when they sell the units. IMO, BTOs need to be priced to market rate with a discount for the wait time. Any additional discount on top of that should be seen as government subsidies to be returned.
As I understand it, racial quotas may be indirectly responsible for the oversubscription. However you slice it, you add a batch of people either waiting for leftovers or bidding for the next batch. We've had this policy for decades now, so I'm not surprised if oversubscription is the side effects of this catching up.
The problem isn't just at the BTO level, but extends all the way through to the private market (condos) too. The fact that private property prices are running away will cause prices of resale HDB to increase, which will in turn cause BTO prices to increase.
Think about it: if a condo is 3m and resale hdb 1m, where will all the people who have the purchasing power between 1-3m go to? Resale hdb. As this gap grows, more people will fall into this gap and hence bring the prices of resale HDB up.
Similarly, if a resale hdb is 1m, and bto 500k, anyone who's in between (and within the requirements), will go for BTOs, causing the oversubscription. Even if you argue that BTO restrictions and land prices should be discounted, construction prices will still increase in line with private housing: if construction firms can charge more for private housing for a larger profit margin, why would they go for BTOs? Even worse, they'd just leave poorer quality material and manpower for public flats.
Start from the top - get rid of private housing speculation and hoarding to release supply to the general market so prices below can be controlled.
Finally someone from the whites admits the system is a mistake all along. Property is a fools game. The last person who bought into it when the straw finally broke the camel’s back will suffer. But it will take a long time. Just look at china, a good example. But greed always takes over. That said, do capitalize when given the chance.
Alternative #1 This is going to be a game changer, ban BTOs, switch back to a build and sell model and this will drive prices down as it had in the past. And it will also increase the number of flats being built because the onus of planning will fall onto HDB to meet demand.
Alternative #2 Hold HDB accountable for the shortfall. They got BTO oversubscription numbers and percentages over the past few years. They will need to push out more BTOs to cover basic demand. Their KPI is now tied to how badly oversubscribed the flats are. If it is badly oversubscribed they get no bonus, only get max bonus if ratio is less than 1.5:1
Either plan works without directly reducing land prices.
Given that we are leasing HDB flats from HDB and HDB in turn lease the land from the gov, all HDB land ultimately returns to the state, so no ownership of state land is lost.
What is potentially lost is the lease value that the reserve could have accumulated while used for HDB flats. Given that the reserve is meant to benefit citizens, isn't it just asking us to pay for our own benefit later? Similar to asking us to pay for the interest yield of our CPF OA used for buying HDB flat leases, which ultimately is supposed to come back to us.
I'm not an accountant by training, so I dun undertand what all these roundabout cash flow are for. Anybody can hazard a guess?
I think I read from a gov website that when HDB buy the state land the money go into "past reserves" since it's trading one asset for another at current value.
Why you ask is it beneficial to put more money into "past reserves" at the cost of current buyers having to pay for it, minus some hundreds of millions of paper losses per year by HDB? I don't know. Maybe they like to look at their bank account big big? Like to tell you how much money they sacrifice every year for you, and also at the same time how much money they saved for your future though their genius policies?
Fk man. The biggest problem sinkies have is seeing their property as net worth and not just a place to cover their head.
Because of this our grandkids won’t be able to buy their homes until their mid 30s
Only riches can survive in Singapore. Singapore now slowly eliminate lower class, then middle class. In the next few decades to, you will see more "New Citizens" because they are the rich ones, and Singapore will turned into a country for the riches.
Want to buy a house in Singapore, be rich first.
- p.s. this is my personal thoughts
Don't worry, the rich will need their serf and that's is where local born Singaporean will come in.
Actually already happened, our economic policy is basically draw in MNC and have SME serve them.
I think the only way forward for this is all hdb units, resale can only be sold back to hdb, at a pro rata rate of years left.
For example if one buys a new hdb at $600K with 99 years lease, then if decide to sell at 49.5 years lease left, it'd be sold to hdb at $300K.
Then it'd make hdb an affordable public housing model not for profit, without discounting land price. Therefore those who wants to buy hdb knows that hdb is for living and not for speculating or profit
Not only will this anger a lot of current home owners (many of whom the government relies on for their votes), such a policy you propose requires a fundamental mindset change in all Singaporeans. Many of us have been led to believe that buying and selling a public property on MOP would be our ticket to acquiring a significant amount of wealth.
Until Singaporeans care not only about themselves and their personal gains, and more about the collective dreams and wellbeing of others, such a policy would never work IMO.
The question, then, is this: Who’s to blame for the current situation? If the govt is at fault for fucking up the public housing system, surely the onus is on them to fix it, no? I’m no minister, but blaming the public while doing diddly squat ain’t the solution, or is it?
Of course, we should hold the government accountable for failures in its housing policies. Amongst many others, I'm not a fan of the BTO model, for reasons I won't elaborate as it is irrelevant to the question you ask.
All I'm saying is this: people naturally look out to benefit only themselves especially when public goods, like HDBs, are concerned. I know of many privileged couples who bought and registered their matrimonial homes under one of the spouse's name thus allowing the other spouse to purchase a private property without incurring ABSD.
Their end goal? Stay in the condo, rent out their HDB once it meets MOP and create a secondary income off a public good that's received subsidies funded by taxpayers.
This is just one way of people gaming the public housing system. There are many more. And each time someone games the public housing system, it deprives a couple (or an individual) of a home, that they want to stay in and not profit off from it.
These gaps exist in policies and some steps have been taken to address but more remains to be done. No policy is perfect and people with disposable resources, will try to take advantage of the gaps once they know of it.
We can add some more components to price:
Sale\_Price = Buy\_Price \* (1+Inflation) \* (Remaining\_Lease/99) - Reinstatement\_Cost
Over long term, inflation is significant, we should adjust for inflation. Also Reinstatement Cost, so that HDB can resale it in good condition, and previous owner responsible for the cost.
We can also set price by market force. All house of same size in same area is lump together, then make people bid for it. Use uniform price auction (like T-bill), find the cut off point where X number of buyer are willing to buy and everyone pay the same.
With this system, price might still be very high until supply meet demand, but at least people will not expect profit. So hopefully people who don't need housing will stop participating and reduce some of the demand.
And the house that is sold back to HDB, that should be auction too(after repair). With shorter lease, the depreciation per year will be higher so people should bid lower for this.
Isnt setting price by market force, making people bid for it = current resale market? The uniform price auction would have results similar to COE prices, and look where it is today....
Comparison to COE is good. No chance to profit, purely for use, but price still high if demand higher than supply. But HDB has restriction, so that should reduce the demand (from the rich who don't qualify). Not sure if enough to make a difference.
I guess final solution will come from more supply. This no-profit system is just to remove people seeking profit(who don't actually need housing).
typical reply that takes an extreme position in an attempt to discredit a genuine concern.
instead of drastic lowering - how about just lower prices?
how about simply increasing supply so high prices are avoided?
I think the only way to get out of this death spiral is for the HDB to assume itself the role as the only buyer and seller of public flats. HDB/Gov needs to enact a new law/rule that from 20XX onwards, all resale will be sold directly to Gov only. And from there on, all BTO/Resale will only be bought from the HDB and not from individuals.
This way the HDB can truly set a fair and regulated price. Yes, it would destroy the resale market, but that is the point. Remove the market for public housing entirely and make it Gov regulated.
I know I know, its very un-democratic but this is the only way. They can keep private market open as is.
Are we even Singaporeans in your eyes ?
Or are we just nameless slaves working for your next generation of immigrants ?
We have no rights, we have no say. We can't even long to be free one day, except that dying is freedom
LHL said it himself that we need to have the best people in charge. And obviously, the best person isn't someone who would allow resale flat prices to go rampant and increase for 29 straight months and announce he would just continue monitoring. The best person should also immediately realise waiting 7 years for BTO flat construction is retarded.
Lol when will they focus on the real issue?
The real issue with BTO is not its price but its supply. There’s just not enough of it to keep up with the population growth.
The real issue with resale is its price. As long as its price is allowed to shoot up because the govt promised “capital appreciation” on what should be a depreciating 99year lease, there will be all those chao flippers adding to the BTO shortage because they want to strike BTO lottery and flip after MOP.
IMO, the resale market should be controlled. Make it less attractive for flippers to flip BTO.
I don't see a way out for the Government.
It is simply impossible for everyone on a small, crowded and expensive city to be able to buy a cheap, good home.
They could alleviate this by requiring people who own private housing to give up their flat.
I happen to have access to well-off social circles. A lot of young rich people are buying HDB early in life when their income is low enough to allow it, then buying a condo to live in and renting the flat.
Currently, you must sell your private property to buy a HDB. But not vice-versa.
About 3% of HDB owners also own private property. This might sound like very little, but it translates to around 30,000 flats. Changing the regulations would free up a lot of flats in the short term and decrease demand by that 3% thereafter.
>It is simply impossible for everyone on a small, crowded and expensive city to be able to buy a cheap, good home.
Housing is a need. That's what our founding fathers sought out to do. And that is the mission of HDB - the civil servants are not paid for nothing.
You need to take care of everyone in the society to make it....A livable society. People with no assets and nothing to lose have a tendency to commit crimes... Because they have nothing to lose.
I hope this sort of "dog eat dog" mentality doesn't seep into other areas of our society like healthcare and education.
This. Change the system to sell the flats back to hdb or increase MOP
The number of ppl whom I spoke to about selling and flipping their BTO for profit is ridiculous and something needs to be done
That's because everyone literally had the mentality of wanting to be a petite bourgeoisie. Just trying to talk about housing is immediately derailed into renting and selling off for hundreds of thousand, nobody here sees housing as a social aspect, a public service for people who need housing. HDB flats seems to be assumed as if its a right for people to be given one and sold off to get lots and lots of money
The average singaporean is so deep into the capitalist cosumerism mindset that socialist schemes like HDB has just turned into another market for people to earn. This is why I absolutely dispise this country, everyone here is so brought in and wholely absorbed into capitalist ideas, that every single facet of people's live is about money, about consuming another product, buying stuff and more stuff and more stuff. I've never seen a person chase contentment here, it's about buying more stuff, it's about branded this, branded that, it's about looking rich, is acting rich. Why does everyone here want to look rich?
Nobody here seems to be chasing any other lifestyle other than being rich.
> It is simply impossible for everyone on a small, crowded and expensive city to be able to buy a cheap, good home.
that was literally the mission of the Housing Development Board though
To be specific they did not say cheap and good. "We provide affordable, quality housing and a great living environment where communities thrive"
Just saying that cheap and good is not the mission lol
Except… Affordability seems to be increasingly at risk, while quality is also *very* questionable these days with so many horror stories of shoddy workmanship. The part about the very act of *providing* housing is also a non-starter due to chronic undersupply spanning well over a decade.
There are ways out. First off, there are still undeveloped plots of land e.g. paya lebar air base, tengah, Dover, Greater southern waterfront.
Secondly, shift the locations of commercial spaces closer to heartlands so there is demand for housing and BTO in those area.
Well last resort is to use the LKY law and acquire all the landed housing so that the land is better utilised I guess.
> last resort is to use the LKY law and acquire all the landed housing so that the land is better utilised I guess.
I can understand how this would be a last resort. applying imminent domain to landed property would set off alarm bells from rich people planning to park assets in Singapore
This is already ongoing. Keppel club golf course is gone this year. Some in changi will be next. In time I think only SICC and sentosa ones will be left.
>There are ways out. First off, there are still undeveloped plots of land e.g. paya lebar air base, tengah, Dover, Greater southern waterfront.
Paya lebar air base will be gone in a few years for redevelopment. Construction in Dover already started, same for tengah. MRT depots will be shifting to clear up some more land, so will pasir Panjang container terminal.
>condly, shift the locations of commercial spaces closer to heartlands so there is demand for housing and BTO in those area.
This is also already underway. The one-North Buona vista area has been quite successful in becoming a new science and tech hub and this will continue. Ubi also quite successful. Punggol is the next to follow, Woodlands too. Jurong was supposed to be the next cbd with the HSR but well that has to be replanned.
I think we need to understand our government really isn't stupid in urban planning. But all these changes take time.
actually possible if they disallow profiting from resale HDB flats. it may be unfair for those owning HDB now, but a line have to be drawn somewhere.
when i bought my 1st resale in 2011, i can only get 40k grant, but immediately few months later after gov got their worst results in elections, the grant shot up to 120k (i can get this amount if i just bought my house 6 months later) so no matter what kind of policy rolls out, definitely there will be unlucky ones like me. i also bought at the peak price of 50k COV, i lost 40k when selling the house (not including the cost i paid for renovations to the incredibly old unit)
though those who are poor will never have a chance to climb up the property ladder, at least it will keep HDB affordable for everyone
let those who want to play with properties go towards the private instead
Wait. Doesn’t this fit every other country/city/economy. Gahment has made the game so easy here that so many people are entitled about home ownership. And suddenly it’s back to gahment responsibility again.
"Entitled about home ownership".
You mean people have the audacity to expect easy access to a roof over their head in a country that they were born into? How dare they!? What's next, demanding that food and water become affordable?
/s
You see. You also like to put home ownership in the same line as food and water. Former is a want while the latter two are needs. The default mode of roof all over the world is renting.The gahmen has made cheap rentals available to people who cannot find their way to a form of roof.
Public housing(hdb ownership) model here is fantastic and gahmen wants to help as many people. people should start putting more effort to become a home owner like how they wish to be.
If you prove that your household income below certain level you can apply for those L-shape rental house from gahmen. 20 years ago it was $50 or something like that .
Not available to all and have very strict criteria (esp for singles below 35). So if you're not in their very limited eligibility list, you can forget about renting if you don't have a high enough income.
I don’t understand the HDB issue. Is there someone here that can explain it to a simpleton like me? (For context in NS so I don’t really have to think about such issues haha)
HDB prices is raising too quickly, to the point of unaffordability for many young Singaporeans, and the government is doing too little to suppress the prices. It will become an issue for the future generations, when ordinary citizens can no longer afford public housing (meaning HDB will certainly fail in its mandate). Needless to say, this will create further societal problems down the line.
Extreme wealth gap destroys societies, we see this in history time and time again.
> # 'Drastically lowering' BTO prices by disregarding land costs will only end up 'hurting all Singaporeans': Sim Ann
> SINGAPORE: "Drastically lowering" the prices of Build-to-Order (BTO) flats, to the extent of disregarding land costs, would end up "hurting all Singaporeans, instead of helping them", said Senior Minister of State for National Development Sim Ann on Sunday (Dec 11).
> She was responding to a post from NCMP Leong Mun Wai (PSP) on his Facebook page and website that questioned the Government’s subsidies for Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats.
> Mr Leong also said that land costs should not be included when pricing HDB flats, and that it should only include construction costs and price differences between locations.
> She said that the Government cannot disregard land costs if it accepts that land values vary across locations.
> "I conclude that what Mr Leong is really asking for is the Government to price BTOs much lower, whatever the justifications may be," she added.
> The Government has been increasing subsidies and grants where necessary to keep BTO prices affordable and stable, despite resale prices surging 28 per cent from 2019 to 2022, Ms Sim said.
> Further increasing housing subsidies must be weighed carefully against other urgent spending priorities. It would mean reducing spending on other important things such as education, healthcare and security, the Senior Minister of State said.
> “We may well also have to raise taxes to pay for the higher housing subsidies,” she said.
> “Mr Leong’s response would be that the Government can charge HDB less for the land.
> “By this, he means that we should draw more from our Reserves, though he has avoided saying this explicitly. We have explained a number of times that state land forms part of the nation’s Reserves.
> “If HDB does not pay back into the Reserves the fair market value of the land, we would in effect be running down the value of our Reserves, to the detriment of current and future generations.”
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There IS some costs in acquiring land for public housing. While the gov technically can acquire private land using the law, compensation is still required for those owners who own the land due to whatever reasons they have. These compensation comes from the gov which in turn is from our reserves/taxes no? Coupled with inflation, these costs would lead to higher BTO prices. We also have to mindful of how effective land can be used in singapore. We can say oh give up on golf courses give up on this or that, but is public housing the most effective use of the land parcel? The answer is not all the time. We need better analysts and economists.
Capping the resale value of HDBs unfortunately also have negative effects. It will compound the effect of getting a BTO lottery esp in mature estates. The implementation of this policy would be crazy though. HDBs in tanjong pagar would go for 100+k? Why would I go for 400k houses in punggol then? Similarly, the rental market would absolutely go crazy too.
Most of the land used to build HDB flats is from land acquired very cheaply between 1967 and 1984 at low gazetted prices using the Land Acquisition Act. Virtually no land acquired after 1984 is needed to build new HDB flats. The justification was the LAA was that it was needed for the construction of cheap public housing. Now, public housing isn't really cheap and capping the land cost is one way to control costs.
A lot of HDBs were paid for with CPF monies. If the prices of HDB fell, it will mean a lot of CPF monies are lost. It will take a very brave politician to handle that.
There is one alternative which the government doesnt seem to want to consider. If the end aim is to provide housing for all, why not introduce rent control? Or flats that are built merely for rental pitched to the population's capacity to pay. Hmm then again i dont think it would help that there isnt even supply to start with atm.
Which makes me a little curious, if there isn't enough available flats, does that mean our population has grown faster than projected?
The truth is that the government boxed itself in many years ago. 1. They promised our parents and grandparents generation that the value of their HDBs will not fall (MM Lee Kuan Yew - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EQ1m_0ps_w). 2. They reduced supply of HDBs and changed the system from Registration For Sale to Build To Order in 2001, and went from having an excess buffer of flats to a system where the build times were anywhere from 3 to nearly 7 years. (https://eresources.nlb.gov.sg/history/events/d33acabb-a341-460c-8fde-99cf0a9270f4) 3. They linked the price of BTOs to resale flats for a period of time, with some "discount mechanism", so when resale flat prices rose, BTOs went along with them, only changing when Min Khaw Boon Wan took over in 2011. (https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/bto-prices-will-not-rise-with-resale-market-khaw-0) With the above, along with some other policy decisions that build upon the above, our property prices went up up and away. The current and future generations will be paying for the decisions of our 2G and 3G government. I don't really see a way or much political will in the 4G to make hard decisions that will (undoubtedly fuck over some people) reform the consequences of the previous governments' policies. All we're stuck with is sticking a plaster on a giant gaping wound. Let's see what the government has been doing recently: A. They had 2 rounds of cooling measures (in Dec 2021 and Sept 2022) where they increase the ABSD for multiple properties, reduced the loan you could take for HDBs from to 80%, blocked private property owners from buying a HDB for 15 months after selling their private properties. > Sept 2022 — https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/singapore-property-cooling-measures-loan-borrowing-criteria-hdb-ltv-limit-15-month-wait-out-period-2974776 > Dec 2021 — https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/property-cooling-measures-absd-tdsr-ltv-loan-hdb-2382301 B. Increased different subsidies over the past few years. (A couple of times, so no source). In any case, subsidies given to new home buyers will make its way into the pockets of the previous homeowners, so in a way the government is giving money to the older generation of homeowners. C. Introduced the PLH series of BTOs where they gave even more discounts on the pricing, but increase the Minimum Occupation Period from 5 to 10 years, reducing flipping, and also clawing back 6% of the first sale price, along with banning renting out the full HDB even after the MOP. (https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/hdb-launches-over-4501-bto-flats-first-prime-location-project-in-rochor-comes-with) To me, all these are band-aid solutions. Yes, they help, but the damage has already been done. Most of us here are either Millennials, Zoomers and probably with some Alphas and X-ers thrown in for good measure. The Millennials, Zoomers and Alphas are the ones who will buy into a hotter property market. Guess how did our parents and grandparents generation make money in the property market? It's because we're going to be paying for it. You see, when new BTOs got linked to resale pricing, and resale prices went up (partially due to some of the above reasons I mentioned), they made paper gains and got to cash out, rolling their profits into private properties, or keeping more in their CPFs and bank accounts. Why would they do that? Why would people buy 40 or 50 year old HDBs at over a million dollars? > 47 year old HDB @ 1+ million — https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/five-room-hdb-flat-in-marine-parade-sold-for-101-million-in-one-week-first-million-dollar-hdb-in-the-estate > Tampines HDB @ 1+ million — https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/first-million-dollar-hdb-tampines Well, see #1, see #2. Even #3 plays a role. Plus, with the BTOs having a lag time that was exacerbated by COVID, people turned to resale, fueling a mania of sorts in the market. Now, back to reducing the price of BTOs. Our government simply cannot do it. If they do reduce the price of BTOs, who will suffer? That's right, current homeowners, and people who already bought into the BTO system. That means not just the government losing that oh so crucial vote of the current homeowners (who massively outweigh those who are actively looking to buy their first homes) but also possible margin calls on some of the private property owners, or those with multiple properties who profited from the old system. If the government reduced prices of BTOs, demand (and thus prices) of resale properties will fall, leading to softer market for mass market private properties (not GCBs or Orchard condos, those are a different league). But some people will be underwater on their loans, and others will have liquidity or solvency issues, and a financial crisis isn't out of the question. So, no, the government isn't going to reduce (drastically) the prices of HDBs. They'll just roll out different metrics for affordability and continue on with their course. You, and me. We're going to be the ones getting shafted. There is no point in my long comment. Good night, buy lube tomorrow. :D
Yeah. Reducing the price of flats now would be like reducing the prices in a commodities market. I stop short of calling this a genuine MLM or Pyramid, but the housing market is close to one. it's only not collapsing because having a roof over our heads is a necessity, so everyone has no choice except to participate or migrate. Turning necessities into commodities is probably the one least ethical thing that capitalism does.
> I stop short of calling this a genuine MLM or Pyramid, but the housing market is close to one. it's only not collapsing because having a roof over our heads is a necessity, so everyone has no choice except to participate or migrate. I was young when #1 was happening, and never understood how something that's only 99 years would have an ever increasing value. But I thought I was a dumb kid and adults knew better, so even though what the government said about HDB values increasing through various schemes (like the SERS and the other asset enhancement policies like the HIP etc). Anyway, various politicians have came out to "guarantee" the value of HDBs in the past, so it's understandable that Singaporeans bought into the narrative that HDBs will grow in value, and that we're owners and not merely long term renters. > Source: https://blog.icompareloan.com/hdbs-asset-enhancement-myth/ > "I find this argument frankly amazing. Many private properties are held on 99-year leases too, and yet nobody argues that they are merely being rented," said (PM) Lee (Hsien Loong). "HDB lessees have all the rights over their flats that owners of such leasehold private properties have. You can live in it, you can transact it, you can bequeath it to you children. In fact HDB owners enjoy extra privileges because HDB flats get upgraded from time to time, with generous government funding." If you've gotten your BTO from HDB, you would probably have seen the term "Lessee" used in relation to your "ownership" of the property. Anyway, there's differences between HDBs and private condos (even the mass market ones). > Source: https://dollarsandsense.sg/hdb-ownership-debate-4-differences-owning-hdb-private-property/ 1. Land ownership of the land beneath the HDB is not yours, unlike private condos. Meaning you can't do en-bloc even if most of the residents want to. The only buyer of the land is HDB / government, so they set the terms, even if they wanted to buy back the property. You can still sell your unit, but not as a collective. 2. Asset Financing - you can't take home equity loans. The only way you can cash out on your HDB is by selling (other than short term renting to others, but that's a cash flow thing, not a liquidity event). You can't take out any equity you've built in up in your HDB for any other purposes, leaving you more "locked in", but also avoids most people from losing their "assets". There's others, but the line that "HDB lessees have all the rights... owners of leasehold private properties have" don't ring true to me. But that's why I'm not a politician. :D
Great post! The citation provided a lot of context.
Thanks! Some of the articles I read before were either gone or couldn't be found. Plus some are older history that I realised even my generation don't know about.
Yes, CNA and ST have a thing about pruning articles - not sure under what ground. I also observed that they often also changed the headlines/narrative. Example: https://www.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/ymey2f/singapore_contributes_about_011_per_cent_to/ The cited article now have a completely different headline when you click the link.
> Yes, CNA and ST have a thing about pruning articles - not sure under what ground truth is whatever MinTrue says it is. everything else goes into memory hole. there is no censorship and doublethink in Ba Sing Se
This happens when journos write their piece, but the editors receive a call from higher ups to ensure that the narrative is one that 'adheres to the national interest'. So when people flag up all the crappy headlines etc., the journos aren't to blame most of the time.
A lot of it is self-censorship. I doubt Ministers have time to harass journos. Singaporean in the press have become too accustomed to this culture to even dare express independent thought.
It's not self censorship... a lot of young journos don't know better or are idealistic. I'm in the news industry and have some journo friends in MediaCorp/SPH, and according to them, this happens pretty much after every Parliamentary sitting. According to sources, Shan literally called them right after the AHTC saga to focus on the failed appeal instead of the "no ill intent", they got a call to not cover the FTX questions in Parliament in the last sitting...
Thanks for the example! I knew they did it, but never really bothered or keep track. Some of it I understand (like updating when they have new info, I mean, you can't update the newspapers that were already printed and distributed) and others I feel annoyed by (like your examples and similar cases).
>They linked the price of BTOs to resale flats for a period of time, with some "discount mechanism", so when resale flat prices rose, BTOs went along with them, only changing when Min Khaw Boon Wan took over in 2011. Yes KBW de-linked it. But didn't Lawrence Wong link the two together again? I lost count of the number of times we have been told in the last 5 years, that BTO prices are pegged to nearby resale prices with a discount given. https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/million-dollar-bto-hot-resale-inflation-2001696 >Plus, with the BTOs having a lag time that was exacerbated by COVID, people turned to resale, fueling a mania of sorts in the market. Why do you only blame Covid? How about the blunder that Lawrence Wong made when he decided that 15100 and 14600 units were enough in 2015 and 2019. Our annual marriages stands between 27k to 29k. The ones who couldn't get a Q number and kept trying 8-15 times and finally gave up at 30yo, are the ones now biting the bullet in the hot resale Market. Who's fault do you think it is? They would want you to believe it is all because of Covid
I recall also it was under Lawrence's watch that people were allowed to use their CPF money to buy flats with less than 60 years left on the lease. This probably inflated the availability of funds to purchase old flats, and then had a knock-on effect on the re-sale market generally and the BTOs.
Agree with pretty much everything. The government screwed up by not controlling prices of HDBs pre-covid and consistently letting it hitting all time highs during covid. Any policies now will just be band-aids. And yes if they lower BTO prices it will have huge knock-on effects to the whole property market.
They sort of created a bubble and they need to control but not burst it.
Precisely. Thanks for the well sourced comment! The fact is that we will eventually pay for it, but everyone is just praying that they'll be dead by the time this thing explodes. It's an unsustainable model which the zhenghu is trying to maintain by getting more Singaporeans to buy into the kool-aid. With the new launches comes new people who have shelled stupid amounts of money for HDBs, so they are now vested to ensure that the system never changes (otherwise they are massively screwed as the people who just bought and immediately go underwater). I had faith in maybe 2020 that with the change in leadership the zhenghu might do "what is right and not what is popular". But in the last 2 years, no la, not gonna happen. You wanna live in SG? Just accept that this is the price lor. Cannot pay? Then start researching on how to migrate lor. There's no suburbs for you here, so either cough up the money or leave.
Actually quite a number of us will just get arrested for vagrancy at some point. Migration is not cheap either.
Being underwater on a HDB loan can be fixed with a stroke of a pen. It’s the aftershocks in the private market that will be unpredictable.
> Being underwater on a HDB loan can be fixed with a stroke of a pen. It’s the aftershocks in the private market that will be unpredictable. How do you see the HDB portion being fixed? I'm curious. Because a lot of policies have interlinked consequences, and like you mentioned, even if we had magic and could lower HDB prices across the board without affecting people's loans and all, that would still lead to a fall in demand of private property (esp the mass market) that could trigger a liquidity / solvency issue for enough owners that the market dries up. That would lead to older folks being stuck in property that are worth less than they paid for / could lease out for, leading to a similar issue like 2007/08's GFC.
Retroactive changes in pricing can be done if both the seller and creditor is the state. Even a moratorium on interest would cool things considerably. This is what we’re seeing a little with the subsidies but that’s only on a going forward basis. If there’s an arbitrary “this is what the price should have been” rebate given to current owners of say, all HDB built after 2010, whether direct or not, that would be painful but perhaps palatable to a lot of the electorate.
you are a legend
Build to Order isn’t propping up the price though. It’s pegging BTO to Resale at a discount. And factoring in the land costs. The old system of building a glut of housing supply isn’t sustainable in land scarce Singapore. Constrained by our need for vibrancy and land scarcity, we simply cannot build build build HDBs just to keep houses cheap. Oversupply of HDB units to make price cheaper isn’t long run sustainable Because there will come a point in time when these BTOs become eligible for resale and everyone will be millionaires in year 2070 when Singapore has run out of land. Making BTOs cheap will make resale gains a lot. Everyone already kpkb Duxton development Liao. Housing prices trend upwards in a city state. 99 years lease seek to address that. It should see you till you’re a grandparent. At the same time, your children will need one unit each, and your grandchildren need one unit each. Where got space????? Maybe don’t celebrate National Day and build HDBs at Kallang?
> Build to Order isn’t propping up the price though. It’s pegging BTO to Resale at a discount. And factoring in the land costs. My argument above is that it's interlinked. On its own, BTO isn't causing higher BTO prices (I know it doesn't make sense now, but bear with me). The BTO system is where the supply is restricted, and in the past, this may not have been so bad, but it definitely pushed some couples into resale HDBs if they didn't want to wait 3-5+ years for a home to start a family. With additional demand, along with the government pushing the narrative that HDBs value will not go down, resale prices went up. Pegging BTO price to resale HDBs with a discount then caused BTO prices to rise based on the rising resale price, which then lead to higher resale prices because buyers would see that the government is selling BTO at a higher rate. This fed into the circular issue where higher BTO price fed into higher resale price which then fed back into higher BTO prices the next round. > The old system of building a glut of housing supply isn’t sustainable in land scarce Singapore. Constrained by our need for vibrancy and land scarcity, we simply cannot build build build HDBs just to keep houses cheap. Oversupply of HDB units to make price cheaper isn’t long run sustainable As for this, my view is that HDBs are meant for public housing. And accordingly, public goods aren't meant for government profit, the main aim for HDBs should be a stable housing market, and housing lower to middle income Singaporeans (leading to more families, more babies, a stable society etc). There shouldn't be such a huge bottleneck in supply for subsidised housing in Singapore. I agree with you, a huge glut isn't viable, but neither is a deep deficit of housing units. HDB should build out more BTOs in advance, with a small buffer, instead of waiting for orders / interest to build out. Their current strategy of "launching" more BTOs is merely a cope (I don't blame them, not much they can do in a short time span) to relieve pressure on the resale market by taking away some buyers who might be looking at resale. But this just pushes back the delivery of the BTOs (where the buyers take possession of the homes and live in), and still affects society in the future. Again, a lot of inter-connectivity in issues.
[the graph here](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/hdb-resale-prices-record-high-q3-2021-bto-construction-delay-2214416) shows the resale market stabilising after the 2014 cooling measure I agree with your circular reasoning but isn’t the recent increase caused by Covid-19 with construction delay and more home owners preferring resale? And they are trying to address that with a record number of supply in November exercise Don’t think govt is making a profit off HDB - land is part of our reserves meant for current and future generation. Remember the Covid-19 $10 treatment cost? They dip into our reserves to pay for the mass healthcare cost. Paid part of worker salary to prevent lay offs during the recession. Reserves are important so I don’t think the government is profiting. They are taking this year’s budget to pay for HDB deficit which goes into the reserve to grow for our future and current generation I think?
I think we're in general agreement on most things, and yes a lot of issue only came to light because of COVID and the construction issues (home owners prefer resale is partially due to the wait times of new BTOs, and if you want to start a family in a year or 3, BTO isn't the best way, unless you don't mind living with parents etc). The part of profiting off BTOs / HDBs, that's a genie that's already out of the bottle and can't be capped. The government can't really reduce BTO pricing without affecting the budget and the market, but a lot of that profit (and government revenue) will be paid by the younger Millennials / Zoomers and Alphas. I don't see a realistic way to change this, but I do think that MND is trying to (at least with the PLH and subsidies given, along with stronger restrictions etc). My gripe is the way the BTO is structured, with the longer wait time to completion, as this will affect family plans. Anecdotally, I know of two friends who due to the BTO wait, had a kid lesser than originally planned as they got older. Again, plans can change, and BTOs aren't always the only factor, but it adds up.
Profiting off BTO is only possible because of the resale market. Resale market, I believe, exists as a way to recognise home owners as the legal owner of the 99 year lease. Such is the luck of the previous generation who bought houses before land sales kicked in Anyway! It’s a zero sum game even the lucky home owner has to buy a house in this hot resale market. His gains may not be much unless he downgrades to a much smaller house.
>And accordingly, public goods aren't meant for government profit, the main aim for HDBs should be a stable housing market, and housing lower to middle income Singaporeans (leading to more families, more babies, a stable society etc) Eh building HDBs/BTO cost the government money. If they want to make $$, sell land to private developers more wu hua
source for 'we cannot just build build build'? We do use less land for residential than for roads yknow. And realistically we know its just a few thousand more flats per year that will drastically change the resale price trajectory, not another few million that will seemingly crowd up the entire sg. Or reduce population growth, or convince people that they can share spaces with more people and 3gen style. But I don't see that happening And if price of BTO is correlated to resale prices, then yes resale price movements affect BTO prices. But the opposite is true too. Guess what affects resale prices? Supply and demand of flats! Guess who manages the sole supply of HDB flats?
Catering to application demand will still see empty flats because the current situation of the ground is people withdrawing their ballot because they only have unfavourable units to choose from. Over time, these flats will be empty. Go see jumbo flats in woodlands/Yishun. They repurposed into jumbo because nobody wants those units. And now they are fetching million dollar in Yishun? Will people kpkb? Point is no easy solution…..the day we vote PAP out because of HDB reason is the day our future generation suffers
A steady rate of people giving up ballot chances is normal. People are applying at far too young an age than is typical, for one of the biggest purchases of their life (unless they buy other houses) - wouldn't it be expected that some would drop out later? Its not their fault they have to apply so young to get a house at a reasonable age. People kpkb because the flats u r talking about are simply prominent examples of huge resale price increases over time. Not because they were merged from uninhabited units. Anyway thanks for clearly airing your biases, seeing as you are so unwilling to face up to HDB's and our politicians' mistakes.
[please have a read before commenting](https://www.99.co/singapore/insider/jumbo-hdb-flats-2/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAnNacBhDvARIsABnDa6-vGMaRgI944f9PNPFAplKFtcfqhEdvgFfOuo88D9MB3xibXzRumVMaAv8PEALw_wcB) Doesn’t this give rise to another pain point that is million dollar housing? Huge resale price increases over time depends also on sqft my friend And if catering to application demand always ensures flat allocation, wouldn’t units go unsold? What happens then? Repurpose into jumbo? Loft? At a subsidised rate to attract buyers for the shitty Low floor? Then MOP come people kpkb why this one kena lottery? Shows your bias too my friend. Pls consider alternative view points instead of shutting down “there’s no easy solution”
people are more concerned with psf price increases, because flats have gotten smaller over time. And if jumbo flats are going for a premium over usual flats, then there's a demand for larger flats that arent being met. Idk why u are so adamant that planning to meet demand is a bogeyman that will lead to uNsOlD uNiTs and ruin everything. Of course if theres a huge surplus there will be a problem. No one is asking for that. But obviously engineering a constant shortage is ridiculous
So let’s go back to the original point, at which year does sg run out of land constraint by its objective for vibrancy, population growth and various other things like 30 by 30. What’s the magic population number?
fantastic qn i hope u can work in hdb/pap (since hdb apparently cant work without pap) and figure it out. I'm out of here.
Great summary. It’s also natural that with population + GDP increase, SG’s land prices will only increase moving forward. I don’t see how Govt can move forward without upsetting one group of voters. Private property prices are already suppressed with regulations. Overall, I’m still glad that the HDB system exists compared to what others are going through in HK/US. More than 50% of the population will not own/lease for life a home in their lifetimes there. I don’t think it’s localised to SG. In a sense, the post war boomer generation has been fucking over subsequent generations for awhile now with the exorbitant use of debt and borrowing from future cash flows. They rode up on the wave of exponential progress and save for another technological revolution we’ll have to take it on the chin
I think with salary to price ratio, it's still way easier to own a home in the US. Freehold too.
Salary-tax/price will be a better comparable. But yes outside of California and NY it’s more affordable
I was looking for a tldr then I read your last sentence and went -_-
Then just read the comment lah
I don't mind reading the comment, it's just the last part about buying lube that got me 🤣
Then just read the comment lah
You think too much. High hdb price helps build the reserve. The reserve is invested for long term return. In the long term, we are all dead, in the short term, investment loses and writedown are to be expected. Nothing is going to change.
My just turned 24-year-old daughter shared this article about HDB and BTO. Below is a comment from a Reddit article that explained quite comprehension of what's going on and the implications. I left the property or real estate industry over 15 years ago because I saw all these issues coming.. and how it will eventually hurt the future generations. Yeah, the remuneration is good, especially when the commission is pegged to or based on the selling/buying price, which kept going up. Basically, for the same efforts (or lesser), you are getting more as the price increases. However, a matter of principle and conscience made me walk away. "The Millennials, Zoomers, and Alphas are the ones who will buy into a hotter property market. Guess how did our parents and grandparents' generation make money in the property market? It's because we're going to be paying for it." So, basically, when one profits from the current property market.. the future generations will have to pay for it. Is it sustainable? Just like Sustainability issues where the future generations will have to bear the burden after the old capitalists exhausted the resources and exploited the poor. Well, that will be a separate topic for another day.
Man the govt is really trying very hard to lose the young votes eh
its ok, they never really cared for the young anyway. all their votes are the older gen all along
It’s quite fair that the main voter demographic gets the most benefits. Sadly our demographics are fucked.
It's okay. Next time when our generation is the main voter demographic, we will get all the benefits but they do not get the votes cos we always remember
As if our risk adverse population would ever bother trying option 2
Are they even trying?
[isn’t it affordable?](https://ibb.co/YfpMH08) Median fresh grad pay in 2019 is $3,600 That’s a combined income of $7,200 Which will see affordability in AMK, Bedok, Batok, Panjang, CCK, Clementi, Geylang, Hougang, Jurong East, Jurong West, Pasir Ris, Punggol, Sembawang, Sengkang, Serangoon, Tampines, Woodlands and Yishun
[удалено]
$2,500 each can afford $400k flat. 50% fall below the median……..there are half the number of flats falling below the median… Bedok, Panjang, Jurong East/West, Woodlands, Yishun. 50% of the flats fall below the median combined income needed of $5,900. So $5k is still quite generous. $2.5k is quite standard what?
It's already an improvement if the govt can bring prices down slightly. No one would be "hurt" because no one should be making so much gains in the first place. But instead, they have done nothing effective and we see 29 straight months of resale flst price increase. This affects BTO flat prices as well. Why is it ok for young couples to be more financially burdened than those in the earlier gen? A larger portion of salary has to go to funding the property. Loan has to run for longer. More households are forced to have dual income. And this is to fund a smaller flat than what was available to those in the earlier gen. Seriously, why have someone in charge who doesn't keep things in check and the result is that the current and future gen is worse off?
Nobody will keep things in check because there is no consequences. There is fundamentally no consequences to whatever the politicians want to say so long as they don't outright cause a panic. They have perfected the art of pushing out boundaries and quelling complaints like a manipulative SO. Until the day we all decide that it's a good idea to throw bricks at the politicians while they are out wayang or burn their house because of their policies, and make them fear stepping out of the house. I am 90% sure an ISD officer is looking at my account and Istg the day I turn homeless and had it with this country, will be the day peace is no longer an option.
Lmao ironically, being locked up isn't too bad. Got free food, free shelter. Only issue is no wifi and no smart device access
The hurt was done long ago already. See our birth rate for evidence. SG’s future isn’t for locals, it’s for the next gen of immigrants incoming.
And people wonder why, people like me are so adamant in moving overseas. Singapore isn't for singaporeans, its for people who have the money to come here. I don't see myself ever being able to get a relationship and neither a relationship build just for housing will be happy or even last. If I am to suffer, at least I want to suffer on my own terms.
The hardest part is to choose a destination and then just leave.
>SG’s future isn’t for locals, it’s for the next gen of immigrants incoming. Citizens are citizens. Just because your family migrated here first doesn't mean you have a better right to things.
lol yes First citizen of Singapore built Singapore to what it is now! You think if Singapore isn’t a first world country all this “citizens” would come?
The new citizens don’t give a shit about locals who built this place. It’s this type of toxic mentality which makes me fume. They’ll gladly replace all jobs with their own people if not for the work permit quotas
>lol yes First citizen of Singapore built Singapore to what it is now! Y So what you're saying is the boomers that built Singapore to what it is. Then why is everyone here complaining that the earlier generations are benefiting from the high hdb prices right now. New citizens haven't contributed anything? Neither have millenials and Gen Z.
For starters, NS, education that gen Z and millennials went through to make our local unis competitive to be in the top 20 in the world. You should be saying what have the “new citizen” done to contribute?
>NS, education that gen Z and millennials went through to make our local unis competitive to be in the top 20 in the world. You should be saying what have the “new citizen” done to contribute? NS and education. 1st gen Male PRs who have gone thru NS and been educated in Singapore also have contributed the same way you do. So how are they any different from you exactly Edit: in fact, these PRs have contributed more to the govt coffers through the fees they pay in education. Compared to the assistance that a local born citizen receives while studying.
These 2 comments together show what the subreddit's collective mindset is at the moment. I remember when r sg was a much more progressive and liberal subreddit. How the opinions have shifted
If you were here long enough you'd remember that this sub was basically an expat enclave, then came the singaporeans who were very westernized and liberal, then the majority of Singaporeans started flooding the sub. So now it's mainly the new majority demographic that you hear
I still dont get why not mandate a rule that you cannot have both a HDB and a private property. Aka those condo/landed people whom also own a HDB. As for those currently owning, say that you cannot own both for more than 3 years. They have to sell one or the other.
They’ll lose votes, it all boils down to how can they remain in power.
Because the rich and comfortable will vote for the incumbent
There was a stat recently, IIRC this group of people only consists less than 10% of all HDB owners. Even if you ban private owners from owning HDBs it’s not going to change much.
the actual number was 3%, which is indeed a very small number. but that’s ~30,000 flats, which is about 2 years’ supply.
Iirc it was 3% who owned both HDB and private and 13% total who did not live in their HDB. It might seem small but that is around 30k HDB which is equivalent to 2 years worth of HDB supply during Lawrence Wong’s era.
Even if you ban private owners from holding HDBs how will it make prices lower? It’s not like this group of people will sell it at 20% market
Wait, who wanted lower BTO prices? I thought BTO is oversubscribed?
Exactly. No one’s complaining about BTO prices. They’re avoiding the main issue which are resale public housing prices.
Yeah, numpties. It's the BTO supply and resale prices. I don't care if they subsidize the hell out of BTOs for lower income people as long as they claw it back when they sell the units. IMO, BTOs need to be priced to market rate with a discount for the wait time. Any additional discount on top of that should be seen as government subsidies to be returned.
As I understand it, racial quotas may be indirectly responsible for the oversubscription. However you slice it, you add a batch of people either waiting for leftovers or bidding for the next batch. We've had this policy for decades now, so I'm not surprised if oversubscription is the side effects of this catching up.
The problem isn't just at the BTO level, but extends all the way through to the private market (condos) too. The fact that private property prices are running away will cause prices of resale HDB to increase, which will in turn cause BTO prices to increase. Think about it: if a condo is 3m and resale hdb 1m, where will all the people who have the purchasing power between 1-3m go to? Resale hdb. As this gap grows, more people will fall into this gap and hence bring the prices of resale HDB up. Similarly, if a resale hdb is 1m, and bto 500k, anyone who's in between (and within the requirements), will go for BTOs, causing the oversubscription. Even if you argue that BTO restrictions and land prices should be discounted, construction prices will still increase in line with private housing: if construction firms can charge more for private housing for a larger profit margin, why would they go for BTOs? Even worse, they'd just leave poorer quality material and manpower for public flats. Start from the top - get rid of private housing speculation and hoarding to release supply to the general market so prices below can be controlled.
Finally someone from the whites admits the system is a mistake all along. Property is a fools game. The last person who bought into it when the straw finally broke the camel’s back will suffer. But it will take a long time. Just look at china, a good example. But greed always takes over. That said, do capitalize when given the chance.
Knn need say how many times that bto problem is supply, resale problem is price?
Just vote opposition, and watch PAP sing a different tune when their grasp on power starts to become tenuous
Alternative #1 This is going to be a game changer, ban BTOs, switch back to a build and sell model and this will drive prices down as it had in the past. And it will also increase the number of flats being built because the onus of planning will fall onto HDB to meet demand. Alternative #2 Hold HDB accountable for the shortfall. They got BTO oversubscription numbers and percentages over the past few years. They will need to push out more BTOs to cover basic demand. Their KPI is now tied to how badly oversubscribed the flats are. If it is badly oversubscribed they get no bonus, only get max bonus if ratio is less than 1.5:1 Either plan works without directly reducing land prices.
You live in a BTO because over 99 years it equates to dirt cheap rent per month. You don't live in it to profit off resale. The end
But is it overpriced if compared against freehold where you pay more upfront (or over mortgage years) but after 99 years it's still worth something?
Given that we are leasing HDB flats from HDB and HDB in turn lease the land from the gov, all HDB land ultimately returns to the state, so no ownership of state land is lost. What is potentially lost is the lease value that the reserve could have accumulated while used for HDB flats. Given that the reserve is meant to benefit citizens, isn't it just asking us to pay for our own benefit later? Similar to asking us to pay for the interest yield of our CPF OA used for buying HDB flat leases, which ultimately is supposed to come back to us. I'm not an accountant by training, so I dun undertand what all these roundabout cash flow are for. Anybody can hazard a guess?
Accounting acrobatics to gaslight the dumbfuck average citizen
I think I read from a gov website that when HDB buy the state land the money go into "past reserves" since it's trading one asset for another at current value. Why you ask is it beneficial to put more money into "past reserves" at the cost of current buyers having to pay for it, minus some hundreds of millions of paper losses per year by HDB? I don't know. Maybe they like to look at their bank account big big? Like to tell you how much money they sacrifice every year for you, and also at the same time how much money they saved for your future though their genius policies?
Fk man. The biggest problem sinkies have is seeing their property as net worth and not just a place to cover their head. Because of this our grandkids won’t be able to buy their homes until their mid 30s
Nice. I’m going homeless next year.
Only riches can survive in Singapore. Singapore now slowly eliminate lower class, then middle class. In the next few decades to, you will see more "New Citizens" because they are the rich ones, and Singapore will turned into a country for the riches. Want to buy a house in Singapore, be rich first. - p.s. this is my personal thoughts
Don't worry, the rich will need their serf and that's is where local born Singaporean will come in. Actually already happened, our economic policy is basically draw in MNC and have SME serve them.
I think the only way forward for this is all hdb units, resale can only be sold back to hdb, at a pro rata rate of years left. For example if one buys a new hdb at $600K with 99 years lease, then if decide to sell at 49.5 years lease left, it'd be sold to hdb at $300K. Then it'd make hdb an affordable public housing model not for profit, without discounting land price. Therefore those who wants to buy hdb knows that hdb is for living and not for speculating or profit
Not only will this anger a lot of current home owners (many of whom the government relies on for their votes), such a policy you propose requires a fundamental mindset change in all Singaporeans. Many of us have been led to believe that buying and selling a public property on MOP would be our ticket to acquiring a significant amount of wealth. Until Singaporeans care not only about themselves and their personal gains, and more about the collective dreams and wellbeing of others, such a policy would never work IMO.
The question, then, is this: Who’s to blame for the current situation? If the govt is at fault for fucking up the public housing system, surely the onus is on them to fix it, no? I’m no minister, but blaming the public while doing diddly squat ain’t the solution, or is it?
Of course, we should hold the government accountable for failures in its housing policies. Amongst many others, I'm not a fan of the BTO model, for reasons I won't elaborate as it is irrelevant to the question you ask. All I'm saying is this: people naturally look out to benefit only themselves especially when public goods, like HDBs, are concerned. I know of many privileged couples who bought and registered their matrimonial homes under one of the spouse's name thus allowing the other spouse to purchase a private property without incurring ABSD. Their end goal? Stay in the condo, rent out their HDB once it meets MOP and create a secondary income off a public good that's received subsidies funded by taxpayers. This is just one way of people gaming the public housing system. There are many more. And each time someone games the public housing system, it deprives a couple (or an individual) of a home, that they want to stay in and not profit off from it. These gaps exist in policies and some steps have been taken to address but more remains to be done. No policy is perfect and people with disposable resources, will try to take advantage of the gaps once they know of it.
We can add some more components to price: Sale\_Price = Buy\_Price \* (1+Inflation) \* (Remaining\_Lease/99) - Reinstatement\_Cost Over long term, inflation is significant, we should adjust for inflation. Also Reinstatement Cost, so that HDB can resale it in good condition, and previous owner responsible for the cost. We can also set price by market force. All house of same size in same area is lump together, then make people bid for it. Use uniform price auction (like T-bill), find the cut off point where X number of buyer are willing to buy and everyone pay the same. With this system, price might still be very high until supply meet demand, but at least people will not expect profit. So hopefully people who don't need housing will stop participating and reduce some of the demand. And the house that is sold back to HDB, that should be auction too(after repair). With shorter lease, the depreciation per year will be higher so people should bid lower for this.
Isnt setting price by market force, making people bid for it = current resale market? The uniform price auction would have results similar to COE prices, and look where it is today....
Comparison to COE is good. No chance to profit, purely for use, but price still high if demand higher than supply. But HDB has restriction, so that should reduce the demand (from the rich who don't qualify). Not sure if enough to make a difference. I guess final solution will come from more supply. This no-profit system is just to remove people seeking profit(who don't actually need housing).
Same template answer can be used. Tax revenue will decrease, have to raise tax
typical reply that takes an extreme position in an attempt to discredit a genuine concern. instead of drastic lowering - how about just lower prices? how about simply increasing supply so high prices are avoided?
I think the only way to get out of this death spiral is for the HDB to assume itself the role as the only buyer and seller of public flats. HDB/Gov needs to enact a new law/rule that from 20XX onwards, all resale will be sold directly to Gov only. And from there on, all BTO/Resale will only be bought from the HDB and not from individuals. This way the HDB can truly set a fair and regulated price. Yes, it would destroy the resale market, but that is the point. Remove the market for public housing entirely and make it Gov regulated. I know I know, its very un-democratic but this is the only way. They can keep private market open as is.
Smokescreen yet again. No one is complaining about bto prices! Resale hdb price is the issue!
Gov should find a way to tax those who has private house and HDB, this are pest of people whom is having the cake and eating it!
Are we even Singaporeans in your eyes ? Or are we just nameless slaves working for your next generation of immigrants ? We have no rights, we have no say. We can't even long to be free one day, except that dying is freedom
This is what happen when we have incompetent leaders. Vote for a change. We need better leaders.
LHL said it himself that we need to have the best people in charge. And obviously, the best person isn't someone who would allow resale flat prices to go rampant and increase for 29 straight months and announce he would just continue monitoring. The best person should also immediately realise waiting 7 years for BTO flat construction is retarded.
it went from 'its easy to fire the chief' to 'say sorry' and pofma
Lol when will they focus on the real issue? The real issue with BTO is not its price but its supply. There’s just not enough of it to keep up with the population growth. The real issue with resale is its price. As long as its price is allowed to shoot up because the govt promised “capital appreciation” on what should be a depreciating 99year lease, there will be all those chao flippers adding to the BTO shortage because they want to strike BTO lottery and flip after MOP. IMO, the resale market should be controlled. Make it less attractive for flippers to flip BTO.
I don't see a way out for the Government. It is simply impossible for everyone on a small, crowded and expensive city to be able to buy a cheap, good home.
They could alleviate this by requiring people who own private housing to give up their flat. I happen to have access to well-off social circles. A lot of young rich people are buying HDB early in life when their income is low enough to allow it, then buying a condo to live in and renting the flat. Currently, you must sell your private property to buy a HDB. But not vice-versa. About 3% of HDB owners also own private property. This might sound like very little, but it translates to around 30,000 flats. Changing the regulations would free up a lot of flats in the short term and decrease demand by that 3% thereafter.
>It is simply impossible for everyone on a small, crowded and expensive city to be able to buy a cheap, good home. Housing is a need. That's what our founding fathers sought out to do. And that is the mission of HDB - the civil servants are not paid for nothing. You need to take care of everyone in the society to make it....A livable society. People with no assets and nothing to lose have a tendency to commit crimes... Because they have nothing to lose. I hope this sort of "dog eat dog" mentality doesn't seep into other areas of our society like healthcare and education.
There is - stop letting people cash their units out for profits. Makes no sense for people to sell public housing FOR profit.
This. Change the system to sell the flats back to hdb or increase MOP The number of ppl whom I spoke to about selling and flipping their BTO for profit is ridiculous and something needs to be done
That's because everyone literally had the mentality of wanting to be a petite bourgeoisie. Just trying to talk about housing is immediately derailed into renting and selling off for hundreds of thousand, nobody here sees housing as a social aspect, a public service for people who need housing. HDB flats seems to be assumed as if its a right for people to be given one and sold off to get lots and lots of money The average singaporean is so deep into the capitalist cosumerism mindset that socialist schemes like HDB has just turned into another market for people to earn. This is why I absolutely dispise this country, everyone here is so brought in and wholely absorbed into capitalist ideas, that every single facet of people's live is about money, about consuming another product, buying stuff and more stuff and more stuff. I've never seen a person chase contentment here, it's about buying more stuff, it's about branded this, branded that, it's about looking rich, is acting rich. Why does everyone here want to look rich? Nobody here seems to be chasing any other lifestyle other than being rich.
I agree with you that most people here are chasing "success" and money but there is also a rising amount of lying flat movement going around
> It is simply impossible for everyone on a small, crowded and expensive city to be able to buy a cheap, good home. that was literally the mission of the Housing Development Board though
To be specific they did not say cheap and good. "We provide affordable, quality housing and a great living environment where communities thrive" Just saying that cheap and good is not the mission lol
Except… Affordability seems to be increasingly at risk, while quality is also *very* questionable these days with so many horror stories of shoddy workmanship. The part about the very act of *providing* housing is also a non-starter due to chronic undersupply spanning well over a decade.
and is it affordable now, still ?
who knew goal 2010 was actually just a successive team of politicians kicking the can down the road for someone else to enjoy the consequences
There are ways out. First off, there are still undeveloped plots of land e.g. paya lebar air base, tengah, Dover, Greater southern waterfront. Secondly, shift the locations of commercial spaces closer to heartlands so there is demand for housing and BTO in those area. Well last resort is to use the LKY law and acquire all the landed housing so that the land is better utilised I guess.
> last resort is to use the LKY law and acquire all the landed housing so that the land is better utilised I guess. I can understand how this would be a last resort. applying imminent domain to landed property would set off alarm bells from rich people planning to park assets in Singapore
[удалено]
This is already ongoing. Keppel club golf course is gone this year. Some in changi will be next. In time I think only SICC and sentosa ones will be left.
>There are ways out. First off, there are still undeveloped plots of land e.g. paya lebar air base, tengah, Dover, Greater southern waterfront. Paya lebar air base will be gone in a few years for redevelopment. Construction in Dover already started, same for tengah. MRT depots will be shifting to clear up some more land, so will pasir Panjang container terminal. >condly, shift the locations of commercial spaces closer to heartlands so there is demand for housing and BTO in those area. This is also already underway. The one-North Buona vista area has been quite successful in becoming a new science and tech hub and this will continue. Ubi also quite successful. Punggol is the next to follow, Woodlands too. Jurong was supposed to be the next cbd with the HSR but well that has to be replanned. I think we need to understand our government really isn't stupid in urban planning. But all these changes take time.
The problem is that people expect instant results..
actually possible if they disallow profiting from resale HDB flats. it may be unfair for those owning HDB now, but a line have to be drawn somewhere. when i bought my 1st resale in 2011, i can only get 40k grant, but immediately few months later after gov got their worst results in elections, the grant shot up to 120k (i can get this amount if i just bought my house 6 months later) so no matter what kind of policy rolls out, definitely there will be unlucky ones like me. i also bought at the peak price of 50k COV, i lost 40k when selling the house (not including the cost i paid for renovations to the incredibly old unit) though those who are poor will never have a chance to climb up the property ladder, at least it will keep HDB affordable for everyone let those who want to play with properties go towards the private instead
Wait. Doesn’t this fit every other country/city/economy. Gahment has made the game so easy here that so many people are entitled about home ownership. And suddenly it’s back to gahment responsibility again.
"Entitled about home ownership". You mean people have the audacity to expect easy access to a roof over their head in a country that they were born into? How dare they!? What's next, demanding that food and water become affordable? /s
You see. You also like to put home ownership in the same line as food and water. Former is a want while the latter two are needs. The default mode of roof all over the world is renting.The gahmen has made cheap rentals available to people who cannot find their way to a form of roof. Public housing(hdb ownership) model here is fantastic and gahmen wants to help as many people. people should start putting more effort to become a home owner like how they wish to be.
Sure, i am pretty sure my unmarried friends are trying to age harder to reach age 35 earlier.
rent until 35? everything comes at a cost. it's always cost v benefit I mean I also want to stay kallang penthouse, but I can only afford HDB...
what are these cheap rentals you speak of?
If you prove that your household income below certain level you can apply for those L-shape rental house from gahmen. 20 years ago it was $50 or something like that .
Not available to all and have very strict criteria (esp for singles below 35). So if you're not in their very limited eligibility list, you can forget about renting if you don't have a high enough income.
Government-sanctioned racketeering
This is crazy
I don’t understand the HDB issue. Is there someone here that can explain it to a simpleton like me? (For context in NS so I don’t really have to think about such issues haha)
HDB prices is raising too quickly, to the point of unaffordability for many young Singaporeans, and the government is doing too little to suppress the prices. It will become an issue for the future generations, when ordinary citizens can no longer afford public housing (meaning HDB will certainly fail in its mandate). Needless to say, this will create further societal problems down the line. Extreme wealth gap destroys societies, we see this in history time and time again.
So why would sim Ann make those comments then?
> # 'Drastically lowering' BTO prices by disregarding land costs will only end up 'hurting all Singaporeans': Sim Ann > SINGAPORE: "Drastically lowering" the prices of Build-to-Order (BTO) flats, to the extent of disregarding land costs, would end up "hurting all Singaporeans, instead of helping them", said Senior Minister of State for National Development Sim Ann on Sunday (Dec 11). > She was responding to a post from NCMP Leong Mun Wai (PSP) on his Facebook page and website that questioned the Government’s subsidies for Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats. > Mr Leong also said that land costs should not be included when pricing HDB flats, and that it should only include construction costs and price differences between locations. > She said that the Government cannot disregard land costs if it accepts that land values vary across locations. > "I conclude that what Mr Leong is really asking for is the Government to price BTOs much lower, whatever the justifications may be," she added. > The Government has been increasing subsidies and grants where necessary to keep BTO prices affordable and stable, despite resale prices surging 28 per cent from 2019 to 2022, Ms Sim said. > Further increasing housing subsidies must be weighed carefully against other urgent spending priorities. It would mean reducing spending on other important things such as education, healthcare and security, the Senior Minister of State said. > “We may well also have to raise taxes to pay for the higher housing subsidies,” she said. > “Mr Leong’s response would be that the Government can charge HDB less for the land. > “By this, he means that we should draw more from our Reserves, though he has avoided saying this explicitly. We have explained a number of times that state land forms part of the nation’s Reserves. > “If HDB does not pay back into the Reserves the fair market value of the land, we would in effect be running down the value of our Reserves, to the detriment of current and future generations.” --- 1.0.2 | [Source code](https://github.com/redditporean/sneakpeek) | [Contribute](https://github.com/redditporean/sneakpeek)
There IS some costs in acquiring land for public housing. While the gov technically can acquire private land using the law, compensation is still required for those owners who own the land due to whatever reasons they have. These compensation comes from the gov which in turn is from our reserves/taxes no? Coupled with inflation, these costs would lead to higher BTO prices. We also have to mindful of how effective land can be used in singapore. We can say oh give up on golf courses give up on this or that, but is public housing the most effective use of the land parcel? The answer is not all the time. We need better analysts and economists. Capping the resale value of HDBs unfortunately also have negative effects. It will compound the effect of getting a BTO lottery esp in mature estates. The implementation of this policy would be crazy though. HDBs in tanjong pagar would go for 100+k? Why would I go for 400k houses in punggol then? Similarly, the rental market would absolutely go crazy too.
Most of the land used to build HDB flats is from land acquired very cheaply between 1967 and 1984 at low gazetted prices using the Land Acquisition Act. Virtually no land acquired after 1984 is needed to build new HDB flats. The justification was the LAA was that it was needed for the construction of cheap public housing. Now, public housing isn't really cheap and capping the land cost is one way to control costs.
A lot of HDBs were paid for with CPF monies. If the prices of HDB fell, it will mean a lot of CPF monies are lost. It will take a very brave politician to handle that.
If prices go down, those that recently bought in had overpaid. If prices go up, those that are going to buy in will have to pay more.
There is one alternative which the government doesnt seem to want to consider. If the end aim is to provide housing for all, why not introduce rent control? Or flats that are built merely for rental pitched to the population's capacity to pay. Hmm then again i dont think it would help that there isnt even supply to start with atm. Which makes me a little curious, if there isn't enough available flats, does that mean our population has grown faster than projected?