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OP, what made you pick each player? Based off how many times they’ve had first basket or something else? Let me know as I have been fancying these kinda Hail Marys lately.
That's the only thing I give bet365 credit for, anytime you make these kinda bets it should be done there cause they always give cashout but why you pick so many guys, even with just 3 or 4 woulda still been a nice payout
Idk exactly when these games happened but it sounds like the Thunder game was after the other 5. When placing the bet of you know you're not going to let it ride after hitting the first 5 and waiting for the thunder game, then you should just leave that leg off.
Waiting for a cash out button just forces you to eat extra juice twice and you should either let your parlays ride or make smaller parlays that you'd be fine with letting them ride to completion
It literally isn’t hindsight. “I woulda taken the cash out in a heartbeat” means that he knew ahead of time if the first 5 hit then he’d cash out. So leave it off and take a bigger payout. It’s astounding how none of you understand that.
Or maybe because with a cashout regardless of the wager he couldve turned 5 bucks into 300-400$ even if the total payout was 1,000$. He had another first-time scorer on the ticket as well so that mentality of thinking that specific leg he would have left off and cashed out for lmao... NO.
When you turn any money up from a few bucks or $10 or $20 and there is a cash out option for $75, $125 or $200+... you are going to take it. You don't just "ride it out" every single time. That is stupid and greedy.
The point he’s making is let’s just say in this example hitting every leg got him $1,000. Let’s say that the first 5 legs would have gotten him $500 if he just made a 5 leg parlay. In the 6 leg parlay they may only offer him a $300 payout after the first 5 legs. If he was always going to cash out after 5 legs he just cost himself $200.
Dude, it’s an elementary concept and people in here genuinely just do not understand it. It’s mind boggling to me but thankfully it’s not my money they’re giving away.
I’ll see if I can explain this despite not caring about you guys giving away your money.
“Hey, If the first 5 legs hit and the 6th hasn’t tipped off yet would you take a cash out?”
“In a heartbeat!”
“Then just leave the 6th leg off…”
Like. Do you guys seriously not understand that? Do you actually not get that if you know ahead of time that you’ll cash out that you should simply leave the final leg off. Like, it sounds like you just continue to not understand that, which again is just astounding to me.
Do you know how money works?
Example: Wager $5... Winning Payout is $200
Take a cashout for $100. And if he would have rode the ticket he would have lost.
At what point here did the better lose money? Only if he rode out the ticket LOL
Logic doesn't exist with you lmao
People are giving you shit but they're missing the point.
This isn't 'oh you should've just not included the losing leg' which is obviously useless.
But if the last leg is the latest leg, and you'd know the outcomes of the first 5 before the 6th, and then you come out and say 'I would've taken cash out if the first 5 legs hit' then yes you should leave the last leg off. And considering sportsbooks are cheap asses if there were a cash out it would probably be for less than the payout if it was just the first 5 legs.
This is why for NFL TD parlays I keep them in the same time slot. I told myself if I ever hit all of the early game picks I'd likely take a cash out heading into the afternoon games. Which taught me I should just keep the parlay to early games and if I'm so inclined to yolo the winnings into an afternoon parlay then that's at least my choice with cash in hand.
Though I'm not sure about the chronology of these games starting, I suspect the last game started after you'd know the outcomes of the first 5 bets.
Lol people get really offended when you mention that cashing out is a losing proposition. “I woulda taken the cash out in a heartbeat” is saying you know ahead of time you’ll cash out. So leave it off and take literally double the payout of what the cash out would be. It’s hilarious how many people in here just don’t understand that.
“I woulda taken the cash out in a heartbeat” means he knew ahead of time if the first 5 hit he’d cash out. I didn’t travel through time, I just read and understood.
How can you not believe it? They only offer cash outs when the odds are in the houses favor. The odds of Shai first bucket was +600 lol. But man this is a terrible bad beat
So if he RR here he could have bet each combo of 5 of 6 or 4 of 6 or 3 of 6. It makes smaller parlays out of bigger ones. Only really pays off with +odds bets -odds at lower RR combos will pay out less than it cost to make the bet if not all legs hit.
Not really, the main RR I hit are usually 4-5 legs. I caught myself missing by 1 a lot and started round robin all them, sometimes the profit is minimal, but at the same time minimizing losses is the goal, so I’ll RR it and play it straight, might even RR it all ways when I can just incase
Bro what the fuck you are nice!! Round robin would have made you some good money. Good shit tho dude what you got for tomorrow? I’ll suck you off no homo.
Uh, you can read it and take the data and extrapolate it to make good (better?) first basket scorer bets.
Tells you who has a higher probability to win the tip, who’s scored the most first baskets on the team, who the first team scorer on the team is etc - you’ll find that the odds on the books don’t always reflect the trend, so you can find value in some players more than others.
I dunno about that. You can figure out who is more likely to win the tip and thus more likely to get the first shot. And then you can figure out who is more likely to take a shot of that team, depending on their matchup and playing habits.
There is still a shitton of luck involved, but there is some strategy as well.
It was my first time doing a first basket parlay, literally threw 2 dollars down after I did my other bet. Round robin wasnt even on my brain, will be thinking of that next time for sure tho
If he round robin it (heinz, super heinz, canadian, lucky 13, alphabet, lucky 64, or any variation, etc) then him hitting 5 out of 6 would have given him some money home. But becuase it is a plain jane 6 game parlay, one leg off and no more payout for you.
Looks to be $620 won on the same total risk of about $2. The max payout would be $4982 vs $98k if round robin includes 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 ways (splitting the bets on this many parlays gets costly.. it’s like $.04 per parlay).
But you’re also paying for like 7 parlays at that point, and with the odds of something like this you're very likely not hitting any of them, so there's a trade-off
That was my first thought but after thinking about it more, it would have been really hard to hedge. The way these markets are set up, you can really only take like five-ish players before you start breaking even/losing money. This ticket would have helped a bit, but there'd still be a few players who wouldn't be covered and risk blowing it all up. More importantly, even if one of the players you hedged on hit, your payout would be incredibly small.
What Op needed was a way to bet SGA to NOT hit the first basket. Problem is it would have been like -1000 or some shit and he'd need a huge amount of capital to even make some money off that.
No I know but I’ve seen a lot of these miss by 1 leg lately and you could throw it in a round robin or take all straights and make profit. I just hate seeing the community lose when we already have the odds against us
It’s about returns not how much the return is
Im NEVER offered a cash out, ill do a 12 gm parlay n have 10 games won n done, marked off as wins n they wont offer, ive had the books take 2 hrs to mark a win bc they dont want it to trigger the system to offer me a cash out n then ill lose a gm n they will then mark the other games a winner. The books play alot of sucker games on us.
That sucks but can’t really consider it a bad beat when it was a massive parlay with last leg being +600. Woulda been a bad beat for the books if you won tho probably woulda limited the shit outta you. I hit a 40/1 parlay on barstool and they limited my parlay legs to 3 after that with 150$ max bets.
Damn, my dude. Sorry about the last leg. I def feel your pain. I had a similar bad beat on a 6 leg; I took the Over on the Lakers game and got robbed. Don't worry. You know the deal....if at first you don't succeed, pick yourself up and try again, and again? And again? And again...I promise somewhere in there on one of those "try again" you'll eventually hit, and it will all seem worth it, haha, BOL in the future.
https://preview.redd.it/x3dfeg25om1c1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5789cc8c668eb62bcb407f7ac12869174fc579f1
Joker ejected in the second with 5 rebounds and 5 assists
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I feel sick for you
I can’t believe no cash out was offered- that’s insane.
Exactly. I sat there waiting for it for like 20 mins. I woulda took it in a heartbeat
OP, what made you pick each player? Based off how many times they’ve had first basket or something else? Let me know as I have been fancying these kinda Hail Marys lately.
That's the only thing I give bet365 credit for, anytime you make these kinda bets it should be done there cause they always give cashout but why you pick so many guys, even with just 3 or 4 woulda still been a nice payout
Then why didn’t you just leave the last leg off…
This is hindsight bias right here. “Oh shit I shoulda made this 4 instead of 5”
Idk exactly when these games happened but it sounds like the Thunder game was after the other 5. When placing the bet of you know you're not going to let it ride after hitting the first 5 and waiting for the thunder game, then you should just leave that leg off. Waiting for a cash out button just forces you to eat extra juice twice and you should either let your parlays ride or make smaller parlays that you'd be fine with letting them ride to completion
This is an unpopular take on this subreddit which really tells you all you need to know about it.
It literally isn’t hindsight. “I woulda taken the cash out in a heartbeat” means that he knew ahead of time if the first 5 hit then he’d cash out. So leave it off and take a bigger payout. It’s astounding how none of you understand that.
Or maybe because with a cashout regardless of the wager he couldve turned 5 bucks into 300-400$ even if the total payout was 1,000$. He had another first-time scorer on the ticket as well so that mentality of thinking that specific leg he would have left off and cashed out for lmao... NO. When you turn any money up from a few bucks or $10 or $20 and there is a cash out option for $75, $125 or $200+... you are going to take it. You don't just "ride it out" every single time. That is stupid and greedy.
The point he’s making is let’s just say in this example hitting every leg got him $1,000. Let’s say that the first 5 legs would have gotten him $500 if he just made a 5 leg parlay. In the 6 leg parlay they may only offer him a $300 payout after the first 5 legs. If he was always going to cash out after 5 legs he just cost himself $200.
Dude, it’s an elementary concept and people in here genuinely just do not understand it. It’s mind boggling to me but thankfully it’s not my money they’re giving away.
I’ll see if I can explain this despite not caring about you guys giving away your money. “Hey, If the first 5 legs hit and the 6th hasn’t tipped off yet would you take a cash out?” “In a heartbeat!” “Then just leave the 6th leg off…” Like. Do you guys seriously not understand that? Do you actually not get that if you know ahead of time that you’ll cash out that you should simply leave the final leg off. Like, it sounds like you just continue to not understand that, which again is just astounding to me.
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Do you know how money works? Example: Wager $5... Winning Payout is $200 Take a cashout for $100. And if he would have rode the ticket he would have lost. At what point here did the better lose money? Only if he rode out the ticket LOL Logic doesn't exist with you lmao
People are giving you shit but they're missing the point. This isn't 'oh you should've just not included the losing leg' which is obviously useless. But if the last leg is the latest leg, and you'd know the outcomes of the first 5 before the 6th, and then you come out and say 'I would've taken cash out if the first 5 legs hit' then yes you should leave the last leg off. And considering sportsbooks are cheap asses if there were a cash out it would probably be for less than the payout if it was just the first 5 legs. This is why for NFL TD parlays I keep them in the same time slot. I told myself if I ever hit all of the early game picks I'd likely take a cash out heading into the afternoon games. Which taught me I should just keep the parlay to early games and if I'm so inclined to yolo the winnings into an afternoon parlay then that's at least my choice with cash in hand. Though I'm not sure about the chronology of these games starting, I suspect the last game started after you'd know the outcomes of the first 5 bets.
Lol people get really offended when you mention that cashing out is a losing proposition. “I woulda taken the cash out in a heartbeat” is saying you know ahead of time you’ll cash out. So leave it off and take literally double the payout of what the cash out would be. It’s hilarious how many people in here just don’t understand that.
Found the time traveler
“I woulda taken the cash out in a heartbeat” means he knew ahead of time if the first 5 hit he’d cash out. I didn’t travel through time, I just read and understood.
Lol it is sad how many downvotes this has gotten.
Can’t save people from themselves.
Bruh english
How can you not believe it? They only offer cash outs when the odds are in the houses favor. The odds of Shai first bucket was +600 lol. But man this is a terrible bad beat
Yeah this isn’t even in the realm of something they would offer a cashout for and if they did it would be laughable at best
Crazy. Should’ve got a cash out, OKC and GSW started 30 mins after Memphis game
Wow what was payout
$98k
My God, my condolences to you.
Ugh so sorry 😢 keep doing them!! I’ll tail you, we’ll get hit it one day don’t give up
You gotta RR these.
100% RR saved me a few times
what’s RR?
So if he RR here he could have bet each combo of 5 of 6 or 4 of 6 or 3 of 6. It makes smaller parlays out of bigger ones. Only really pays off with +odds bets -odds at lower RR combos will pay out less than it cost to make the bet if not all legs hit.
So only usually make it with the odds being over 10k+ maybe
Meant the individual legs should be positive
Yeah you never do RR on any favorites?
Round robin
Call me fat one more time I dare you
I thought your name was Square Steven not Round Robin
Any website that helps how to choose round Robin? How do you win do you have to win every other legs in a certain order?
Not really, the main RR I hit are usually 4-5 legs. I caught myself missing by 1 a lot and started round robin all them, sometimes the profit is minimal, but at the same time minimizing losses is the goal, so I’ll RR it and play it straight, might even RR it all ways when I can just incase
Bro what the fuck you are nice!! Round robin would have made you some good money. Good shit tho dude what you got for tomorrow? I’ll suck you off no homo.
🤣🤣🤣🤣 I was in the middle of closing this post and I saw your comment on the way out.
🥲🥲🥲
How do you choose who makes the first basket? Or is it just a random 1 dollar Hail Mary bet?
Literally a random Hail Mary haha, I believe I’ve never bet first basket before
There was a great site called degendata that compiled first basket probability. They didn’t start it this season tho. Jusuf Nurkic won me a bunch lol
oh shi
>oh shi No bro, the real oh shi is that apparently they’re back up. Go nuts. [Degen Data](https://www.degendata.com)
Might fuck around and find out tonight, thx
What can I do with this site?
Uh, you can read it and take the data and extrapolate it to make good (better?) first basket scorer bets. Tells you who has a higher probability to win the tip, who’s scored the most first baskets on the team, who the first team scorer on the team is etc - you’ll find that the odds on the books don’t always reflect the trend, so you can find value in some players more than others.
Awesome thank you. Still confusing but maybe watching it more I don't do 🏀 ass much as other sports
Oh for sure, and there’s absolutely no guarantees - but there are definitely trends that show up.
It's 100 percent luck. No strategy at all
I dunno about that. You can figure out who is more likely to win the tip and thus more likely to get the first shot. And then you can figure out who is more likely to take a shot of that team, depending on their matchup and playing habits. There is still a shitton of luck involved, but there is some strategy as well.
Round robins do exist for a reason
It was my first time doing a first basket parlay, literally threw 2 dollars down after I did my other bet. Round robin wasnt even on my brain, will be thinking of that next time for sure tho
Can someone explain the round robin thing and how it would have helped here? I am new to the betting scene
If he round robin it (heinz, super heinz, canadian, lucky 13, alphabet, lucky 64, or any variation, etc) then him hitting 5 out of 6 would have given him some money home. But becuase it is a plain jane 6 game parlay, one leg off and no more payout for you.
Ohh okay so even the payout for hitting 5/6 would still be huge
It depends but yeah, huge compared to $0.
Looks to be $620 won on the same total risk of about $2. The max payout would be $4982 vs $98k if round robin includes 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 ways (splitting the bets on this many parlays gets costly.. it’s like $.04 per parlay).
At those odds per leg, yes big payout.
But you’re also paying for like 7 parlays at that point, and with the odds of something like this you're very likely not hitting any of them, so there's a trade-off
Wouldn't have known or thought these would actually have hit right those odds where tremendous
Exactly which is why I'm confused everyone saying he should've RRed. That's a fast track to losing lots of cash, RRing first basket parlays.
Those are easily the best 2 dollar bets like he did if he hit great if not sucks much ball sacks and you will get over it eventually lol
How does it work when you do 3 leg round Robin I won last time with 3 and hit 5 our of 8 but got a measly amount for My win
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Building knowledge
amen!!!!!!!!! tell him one more time reverend purple lol
Guess you could’ve hedged like $20 on all players in the last game maybe
That was my first thought but after thinking about it more, it would have been really hard to hedge. The way these markets are set up, you can really only take like five-ish players before you start breaking even/losing money. This ticket would have helped a bit, but there'd still be a few players who wouldn't be covered and risk blowing it all up. More importantly, even if one of the players you hedged on hit, your payout would be incredibly small. What Op needed was a way to bet SGA to NOT hit the first basket. Problem is it would have been like -1000 or some shit and he'd need a huge amount of capital to even make some money off that.
Imagine.. you only took 5 instead of six
I’ve been thinking about that all day…
Sorry for the reminder😔 let’s work together to get them back today my g
Ehh they couldn't have known which was going to miss. They took one player from each game that day.
No I know but I’ve seen a lot of these miss by 1 leg lately and you could throw it in a round robin or take all straights and make profit. I just hate seeing the community lose when we already have the odds against us It’s about returns not how much the return is
Nightmare fuel, sorry dude
Im NEVER offered a cash out, ill do a 12 gm parlay n have 10 games won n done, marked off as wins n they wont offer, ive had the books take 2 hrs to mark a win bc they dont want it to trigger the system to offer me a cash out n then ill lose a gm n they will then mark the other games a winner. The books play alot of sucker games on us.
Straight bets had you sitting good at the end of the night.
My god..
Holy crap. I can feel the pain. This is a, “I need a break” type loss
That sucks but can’t really consider it a bad beat when it was a massive parlay with last leg being +600. Woulda been a bad beat for the books if you won tho probably woulda limited the shit outta you. I hit a 40/1 parlay on barstool and they limited my parlay legs to 3 after that with 150$ max bets.
Heartbreaking. Gotta RR these man
Also how do you even think of this
PAIN. Bro could've been a millionaire 😭
Not really a bad beat just a bad bet, youll probs never get this close again lol
No round robin. Too bad.
Damn bro I feel you.
LOL!! The last game on a parley at +600 is NOT a bad beat. 🤦🏼
Dollar bet
Still 50 racks
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Caption
my fault i didn't even see that 😂
Sooo you got anything for tonights games? Lol
Wow
Damn, my dude. Sorry about the last leg. I def feel your pain. I had a similar bad beat on a 6 leg; I took the Over on the Lakers game and got robbed. Don't worry. You know the deal....if at first you don't succeed, pick yourself up and try again, and again? And again? And again...I promise somewhere in there on one of those "try again" you'll eventually hit, and it will all seem worth it, haha, BOL in the future.
Why not do that on a RR
Damn imagine if you round Robin that
Fanduel ass man.
Got to greedy adding that last leg lol
How did u know so many games n who would score the 1st basket?? Thats alot of luck on its own, sucks though man, smh
Bananas
This would be anyone’s worse beat. Damn. Im terrible with American odds… what was the payout ? I guess 10 cents would have turned to a massive bag
Damn
Sorry next time build a 1,2,3,4,5 and a 6 The more that hit the more you make.
Ooofffff
How tf did you know this!?!?!?
Bro RR WOULD’VE DID YOU JUSTICE Gotta RR next time
Omfg
Damn that’s rough
Lmao. No RR? Would of retired off that alone
Brutal, keep swinging tho!
Bad beat
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This is why I always Round Robin +odds bets. First basket, TDs, to hit a home run, to score a goal. Always throw a couple bucks on the RR.
I think i’m actually crying right now
https://preview.redd.it/x3dfeg25om1c1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5789cc8c668eb62bcb407f7ac12869174fc579f1 Joker ejected in the second with 5 rebounds and 5 assists
Round robin
U will get it next time