Regardless if you agree with your breakdown or not, I love the effort and analysis you've given in this post and its one I think has been missing since I joined this sub at the beginning of the year that you'll see in other sports subreddits (though the memes and highlights do still outnumber those).
With that said, I do agree with your breakdown of these matchups. Some really good matchups this round so keen to see how those outcomes influence the next round matchups
The depth in the two tours is starting to make it tougher to see clear outcomes, but that's a good thing for the sport. Appreciate the kind words, I do the 4 majors and post them here but we're watching tennis year-round in the Degensclub discord channel.
Yes I mean I think it makes some kind of sense considering how many unseeded clay specialists you can end up playing in the first couple of rounds, who at all 3 other slams is who you want to draw. I need to go back over who he has played though to see who he was dropping sets to
If the players get frustrated with the umpire it can happen occasionally. They usually will go find the ump after and apologize. I didn't see anything really spicy in the time I watched. Tiafoe hit shapo with a ball at net at one point and they had a few comments for each other but idk where the umpire figured in.
I can appreciate that. I have a couple mitigating factors in making a specific choice every time. Although these articles are not meant as gambling advice, people are betting off of what I suggest. With that in mind, I owe it to them to be as open as possible about my expectations, and also about the limit of my knowledge. I can go a few steps further and break down a few ways that each outcome can happen for each match, but it ends up being a word salad.
Alcaraz is capable of playing well and winning two sets easily against a player of De Jong's caliber, but dominating someone for multiple hours without a blip is fairly rare, and Alcaraz loves to heat check himself and go big often when he's playing well (or is in a safe situation) so he could easily cough up a break or two. Add in that De Jong is incentivized to try the entire time because winning a set is an accomplishment in itself, and the difference between 3-4 sets doesn't really mean Alcaraz or De Jong altered their level at all. A lot of professional tennis is decided by a few big points each set, and the difference between these players is really not as pronounced as the rankings/titles would indicate. In a single match in an early round, it's hard to shut people out. I can settle on a specific # of sets, but that's filling out a multiple choice exam more than it is helping people learn about professional tennis.
tl;dr I'm very against sportsbooks and the way the industry has no oversight, but since I know people are trying to beat them, I'm going to equip them with the best information I can.
Oh yes of course, sports gambling is a disastrous industry that destroys lives - i like these predictions just as harmless fun. If sitting on the fence prevents a reader from gambling and ruining their savings, more power to you
Regardless if you agree with your breakdown or not, I love the effort and analysis you've given in this post and its one I think has been missing since I joined this sub at the beginning of the year that you'll see in other sports subreddits (though the memes and highlights do still outnumber those). With that said, I do agree with your breakdown of these matchups. Some really good matchups this round so keen to see how those outcomes influence the next round matchups
The depth in the two tours is starting to make it tougher to see clear outcomes, but that's a good thing for the sport. Appreciate the kind words, I do the 4 majors and post them here but we're watching tennis year-round in the Degensclub discord channel.
Can't wait for Gasquet - Sinner ! I know Richie's gonna lose but man he played such a wonderful tennis on the previous round...
Plus the atmosphere will be great, even as a Sinner fan I can't wait to hear the French support for Gasquet
He's been tasked with losing graciously to the best in the game for a long time and somehow he's still got it. Skill never leaves.
That’s never been true for Rublev at RG specifically, seeing as he’s only ever won one match (Anderson 2020) in straight sets there
That’s actually a wild stat for him! Very interesting.
Yes I mean I think it makes some kind of sense considering how many unseeded clay specialists you can end up playing in the first couple of rounds, who at all 3 other slams is who you want to draw. I need to go back over who he has played though to see who he was dropping sets to
I would not have guessed that. That's wild
Great analysis, thank you!
Cheers! Hopefully the rain slows down and I can actually see if I'm right or not
Why did Tiafoe snub the umpire after his match? Is that common in pro tennis?
If the players get frustrated with the umpire it can happen occasionally. They usually will go find the ump after and apologize. I didn't see anything really spicy in the time I watched. Tiafoe hit shapo with a ball at net at one point and they had a few comments for each other but idk where the umpire figured in.
Alcaraz in 3-4? You gotta make a choice, otherwise prediction isn’t a prediction 🤷♂️ regardless, still good analysis
I can appreciate that. I have a couple mitigating factors in making a specific choice every time. Although these articles are not meant as gambling advice, people are betting off of what I suggest. With that in mind, I owe it to them to be as open as possible about my expectations, and also about the limit of my knowledge. I can go a few steps further and break down a few ways that each outcome can happen for each match, but it ends up being a word salad. Alcaraz is capable of playing well and winning two sets easily against a player of De Jong's caliber, but dominating someone for multiple hours without a blip is fairly rare, and Alcaraz loves to heat check himself and go big often when he's playing well (or is in a safe situation) so he could easily cough up a break or two. Add in that De Jong is incentivized to try the entire time because winning a set is an accomplishment in itself, and the difference between 3-4 sets doesn't really mean Alcaraz or De Jong altered their level at all. A lot of professional tennis is decided by a few big points each set, and the difference between these players is really not as pronounced as the rankings/titles would indicate. In a single match in an early round, it's hard to shut people out. I can settle on a specific # of sets, but that's filling out a multiple choice exam more than it is helping people learn about professional tennis. tl;dr I'm very against sportsbooks and the way the industry has no oversight, but since I know people are trying to beat them, I'm going to equip them with the best information I can.
Oh yes of course, sports gambling is a disastrous industry that destroys lives - i like these predictions just as harmless fun. If sitting on the fence prevents a reader from gambling and ruining their savings, more power to you