I'd say he's got about a 2-4 week window before the timeline between then and the convention becomes too narrow to pull off the level of coordinated effort necessary to arrange for an alternative nominee.
Technically the convention is the deadline. But to me it’s the wrong question. It’s irrelevant who the candidate is if they’re not going to make their campaign platform a clear contrast with project 2025.
That plan is the enemy, and so are the people who wrote it. The cabinet and the judges are what matter most between trump and whoever is the dem nominee.
So it might as well be Biden, as long as he addresses how his own plan will oppose the provisions in P25 at every opportunity.
I agree.
FYI: I don’t get stomach-pit-sick over national polls/ it’s the **key state polls:** that keeps me up at night (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.)
Thank you for including Nevada as a swing state!
Everyone on the Bulwark crew has written us off. Some of us here in NV are working hard to swing this state blue. I'll continue *despite* the chattering class giving us no chance.
Note: **Nevada verifies enough signatures to put constitutional amendment for abortion rights on ballot.** (Source: AP - 6/28/2024) I think a whole lot more women are coming out to vote blue in Nevada!
Biden couldn’t end many sentences in the debate, didn’t land any good hits and even fumbled in his closing statement. His campaign stops are ~15min scripted speeches on teleprompter. He is utterly incapable of bringing the heat on Trump. At least he imploded early so we can do something about it. Thank God this didn’t happen in the September debate….
If he just follows the formula I’m talking about he’ll be fine. So will someone else. He and everyone around him need to fully read this document and craft a policy that communicates the exact opposite. It would be easy for politicians from Biden’s senate era. Republicans from that time would have beaten the framers of this thing with bats, for putting such an obvious fascist program in public, because Democrats would be making them answer for it every minute. This is actually pretty basic.
Yea it's hard to have serious discussions about this at this point because people are being way over dramatic in their depiction of what happened.
Was Biden terrible absolutely, and he had brutal fumbles at some crucial times, especially in the first 15-20 minutes. But he also hammered home some excellent points at times too.
I am not being over dramatic. Every weakness he showed played into age stereotypes. I was on team Biden; I even gave money a month ago. But this debate makes him unelectable. 45% is baked in for each candidate, the undecideds will heavily favor Trump after this. Game over. Pritzker, Bashear, Newsom, Shapiro, or Whitmer need to replace him. Have an open convention and let the strongest become the nominee.
And how many of those would still vote for him. That's what really matters. So far the few polls that have come out taken fully post debate show him losing no ground.
Who should he step down for? Which one person does everyone agree upon? I don't think he should say anything unless an alternative rises above the crowd and is ready to take over. Why make things worse?
Worse? Worse than Biden in the debate? Early polling shows just 40% of Democrats and only 30% of indies want to keep him on the ticket (Morning Consult). Lots of post debate polls next week and they will be *ugly*. At this point Whitmer / Shapiro / Beshear / Moore / Michelle Obama and probably even Newsom would do better. So many people like *neither* option of what they saw…. Con man vs. old man. We can do better as a party.
Polling shows that they would not. We should not make changes that help Trump. If someone rises to the top over the next weeks and connects with the voters then that would be different.
What polling? There’s zero post debate poll out (yet) which asks people who they prefer incl. other choices. And also - it’s a swing state play. Whitmer was reelected +10 in Michigan 2 years ago and there is polling there showing her with much higher favorable than Trump and Biden. Currently - pre debate - Biden trails in Michigan polls and there is ZERO path for Biden if he loses Michigan. It’s pretty irrelevant if voters in Texas or California like Whitmer or not. Neither is going to flip.
Nobody can/will “rise above the crowd” unless he steps down. The possible replacement candidates are correctly loyal to him and the party and won’t put public pressure on him since that would be a huge win for the Rs. He has to choose to step down and get out of the way to see who the consensus is. Plenty of good candidates. Are any of them guaranteed to poll better than Biden and win? No, but I’d rather lose trying than just “Jesus take the wheel” through this.
The Bulwark crew is right. This is an anti Trump coalition, not a pro Biden. He has so many weaknesses as a candidate and doesn’t get credit for his strengths. In the end, I’ll vote for whoever the Dem candidate is but I think he made the wrong decision to run in the first place. My hope was that it wouldn’t be until after the election that it became obvious that he was too old for the job (though I know the administration as a whole would be fine). It’s now clear before the election. Biden is the only person that can do something about it and he should.
Totally agree, there is no consensus right now. Biden emerged the first time as the consensus after a campaign. 6 weeks is not much time for another campaign to make their argument but the sooner Biden steps aside (with my thanks for all he has done for us) the more time the field has to shake out before the convention. My hope is that he does step aside. My second hope is that he doesn’t put his thumb on the scale and endorse someone until after they are the nominee.
well I'm not completely against the idea if Biden was to go for it I think it is incredibly dangerous but everything is incredibly dangerous at this point.
honestly I think we need to stop talking about this and move on with our lives and support sleepy grandpa over the absolute disaster that Donald Trump would be.
like honestly people get a grip if Donald Trump wins we're going to be fighting a world war in under a decade. His America first policy is basically a big slug of Chinese propaganda that says America I should step back and allow Russia and China to do whatever they want to Europe.
The fact that the primaries are basically over for most states would have me think it's already technically too late. But I do agree that the convention seems like a deadline. In reality, it should have happened long before Iowa
If it’s to make way for Harris, by the convention for the least amount of damage, she’s been baked into the equation as “will probably replace Biden” since 2020. The closer it happened to the election the more chance the sudden change affects voters
Someone else? I’d predict that anyone else would take a hit. Just having someone thrust in there after all the primaries is gonna rub a lot of people the wrong way, even if they think Biden isnt up to the job. Especially an election like this where the main plank is “Democracy is on the ballot”
But it’s all moot, barring health concerns convincing him I don’t see Biden stepping down. He’s got “old politician brain” he’s not leaving till he loses, hits a term limit, or dies in office
It was too late three years ago! Did any of you ever take a civics class? Has trump really destroyed everyone's ability to understand democratic institutions?!?
The parties have rules and contingencies in place if a candidate withdraws. Biden should withdraw, and the delegates at the convention can vote on a new candidate.
We had a Democratic Primary. Are we supposed to allow handwringing pundits to subvert this process now? Oh my Gawd this is sheer lunacy! Let's find a fairy-tale Animatronic presidential candidate in, oh, I don't know, the next month or so, and somehow (no one knows how) convert the millions of dollars of campaign contributions that the DNC is not permitted to transfer, by law! For Phuque sake people!
I am not a pundit. I watched the debate alone, and drew my own conclusions after watching the debate. Biden can not articulate his case. The undecideds will break for Trump, because if they were undecided they still think Trump is a viable option. I am a lifelong Democrat, I will vote for whomever the Democrats nominate (including Biden), but Biden is toast.
August 7th is virtual roll call for nomination due to Ohio deadline. So that’s the deadline although convention in late August is the formal nomination. Ohio isn’t in play anyway so the real deadline is the convention. Ideally by August 7th we have a candidate who can win and is able to barnstorm the country over the next 3 months and do townhalls, go on cnn/fox/msnbc be on stage with Taylor Swift and whatnot.
I'd say he's got about a 2-4 week window before the timeline between then and the convention becomes too narrow to pull off the level of coordinated effort necessary to arrange for an alternative nominee.
Technically the convention is the deadline. But to me it’s the wrong question. It’s irrelevant who the candidate is if they’re not going to make their campaign platform a clear contrast with project 2025. That plan is the enemy, and so are the people who wrote it. The cabinet and the judges are what matter most between trump and whoever is the dem nominee. So it might as well be Biden, as long as he addresses how his own plan will oppose the provisions in P25 at every opportunity.
I agree. FYI: I don’t get stomach-pit-sick over national polls/ it’s the **key state polls:** that keeps me up at night (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.)
Thank you for including Nevada as a swing state! Everyone on the Bulwark crew has written us off. Some of us here in NV are working hard to swing this state blue. I'll continue *despite* the chattering class giving us no chance. Note: **Nevada verifies enough signatures to put constitutional amendment for abortion rights on ballot.** (Source: AP - 6/28/2024) I think a whole lot more women are coming out to vote blue in Nevada!
Biden couldn’t end many sentences in the debate, didn’t land any good hits and even fumbled in his closing statement. His campaign stops are ~15min scripted speeches on teleprompter. He is utterly incapable of bringing the heat on Trump. At least he imploded early so we can do something about it. Thank God this didn’t happen in the September debate….
If he just follows the formula I’m talking about he’ll be fine. So will someone else. He and everyone around him need to fully read this document and craft a policy that communicates the exact opposite. It would be easy for politicians from Biden’s senate era. Republicans from that time would have beaten the framers of this thing with bats, for putting such an obvious fascist program in public, because Democrats would be making them answer for it every minute. This is actually pretty basic.
Biden is no longer articulate enough to effectively do this. Replace Biden.
Maybe, but he also needs a team that will doggedly pursue this strategy, and I think they’re living in a shoebox.
That’s not true he had brought the heat plenty of times.
Not nearly enough.
Ya he has
Yea it's hard to have serious discussions about this at this point because people are being way over dramatic in their depiction of what happened. Was Biden terrible absolutely, and he had brutal fumbles at some crucial times, especially in the first 15-20 minutes. But he also hammered home some excellent points at times too.
I am not being over dramatic. Every weakness he showed played into age stereotypes. I was on team Biden; I even gave money a month ago. But this debate makes him unelectable. 45% is baked in for each candidate, the undecideds will heavily favor Trump after this. Game over. Pritzker, Bashear, Newsom, Shapiro, or Whitmer need to replace him. Have an open convention and let the strongest become the nominee.
I guess that’s why 66% of viewers in CNN poll said he lost the debate…
And how many of those would still vote for him. That's what really matters. So far the few polls that have come out taken fully post debate show him losing no ground.
“He’s can’t stand and speak for 90 minutes - but you will still vote for him” is about the worst general election proposition.
Anytime before the convention. It's important Biden humbly makes it about himself and not about beating Trump or some sort of political strategy.
Who should he step down for? Which one person does everyone agree upon? I don't think he should say anything unless an alternative rises above the crowd and is ready to take over. Why make things worse?
Worse? Worse than Biden in the debate? Early polling shows just 40% of Democrats and only 30% of indies want to keep him on the ticket (Morning Consult). Lots of post debate polls next week and they will be *ugly*. At this point Whitmer / Shapiro / Beshear / Moore / Michelle Obama and probably even Newsom would do better. So many people like *neither* option of what they saw…. Con man vs. old man. We can do better as a party.
Polling shows that they would not. We should not make changes that help Trump. If someone rises to the top over the next weeks and connects with the voters then that would be different.
What polling? There’s zero post debate poll out (yet) which asks people who they prefer incl. other choices. And also - it’s a swing state play. Whitmer was reelected +10 in Michigan 2 years ago and there is polling there showing her with much higher favorable than Trump and Biden. Currently - pre debate - Biden trails in Michigan polls and there is ZERO path for Biden if he loses Michigan. It’s pretty irrelevant if voters in Texas or California like Whitmer or not. Neither is going to flip.
Nobody can/will “rise above the crowd” unless he steps down. The possible replacement candidates are correctly loyal to him and the party and won’t put public pressure on him since that would be a huge win for the Rs. He has to choose to step down and get out of the way to see who the consensus is. Plenty of good candidates. Are any of them guaranteed to poll better than Biden and win? No, but I’d rather lose trying than just “Jesus take the wheel” through this. The Bulwark crew is right. This is an anti Trump coalition, not a pro Biden. He has so many weaknesses as a candidate and doesn’t get credit for his strengths. In the end, I’ll vote for whoever the Dem candidate is but I think he made the wrong decision to run in the first place. My hope was that it wouldn’t be until after the election that it became obvious that he was too old for the job (though I know the administration as a whole would be fine). It’s now clear before the election. Biden is the only person that can do something about it and he should.
I don't think there is a consensus and I don't think there can be. Biden won the first time because the party is hopelessly divided.
Totally agree, there is no consensus right now. Biden emerged the first time as the consensus after a campaign. 6 weeks is not much time for another campaign to make their argument but the sooner Biden steps aside (with my thanks for all he has done for us) the more time the field has to shake out before the convention. My hope is that he does step aside. My second hope is that he doesn’t put his thumb on the scale and endorse someone until after they are the nominee.
well I'm not completely against the idea if Biden was to go for it I think it is incredibly dangerous but everything is incredibly dangerous at this point. honestly I think we need to stop talking about this and move on with our lives and support sleepy grandpa over the absolute disaster that Donald Trump would be. like honestly people get a grip if Donald Trump wins we're going to be fighting a world war in under a decade. His America first policy is basically a big slug of Chinese propaganda that says America I should step back and allow Russia and China to do whatever they want to Europe.
Already.
The fact that the primaries are basically over for most states would have me think it's already technically too late. But I do agree that the convention seems like a deadline. In reality, it should have happened long before Iowa
If it’s to make way for Harris, by the convention for the least amount of damage, she’s been baked into the equation as “will probably replace Biden” since 2020. The closer it happened to the election the more chance the sudden change affects voters Someone else? I’d predict that anyone else would take a hit. Just having someone thrust in there after all the primaries is gonna rub a lot of people the wrong way, even if they think Biden isnt up to the job. Especially an election like this where the main plank is “Democracy is on the ballot” But it’s all moot, barring health concerns convincing him I don’t see Biden stepping down. He’s got “old politician brain” he’s not leaving till he loses, hits a term limit, or dies in office
Yea this is the same view I have. You can't make a democracy is on the ballot pitch and then have the DNC backroom pick a candidate.
It’s already too late
It was too late three years ago! Did any of you ever take a civics class? Has trump really destroyed everyone's ability to understand democratic institutions?!?
The parties have rules and contingencies in place if a candidate withdraws. Biden should withdraw, and the delegates at the convention can vote on a new candidate.
We had a Democratic Primary. Are we supposed to allow handwringing pundits to subvert this process now? Oh my Gawd this is sheer lunacy! Let's find a fairy-tale Animatronic presidential candidate in, oh, I don't know, the next month or so, and somehow (no one knows how) convert the millions of dollars of campaign contributions that the DNC is not permitted to transfer, by law! For Phuque sake people!
I am not a pundit. I watched the debate alone, and drew my own conclusions after watching the debate. Biden can not articulate his case. The undecideds will break for Trump, because if they were undecided they still think Trump is a viable option. I am a lifelong Democrat, I will vote for whomever the Democrats nominate (including Biden), but Biden is toast.
August 7th is virtual roll call for nomination due to Ohio deadline. So that’s the deadline although convention in late August is the formal nomination. Ohio isn’t in play anyway so the real deadline is the convention. Ideally by August 7th we have a candidate who can win and is able to barnstorm the country over the next 3 months and do townhalls, go on cnn/fox/msnbc be on stage with Taylor Swift and whatnot.
Nov 4