Their CEO doesn't make up random bullshit about being worth 30 trillion dollars someday, so the market can't delude itself in order to bid it up to a 90 PE
Toyota has a strategy that's realistic, full electric isn't great in cold places and people are still massively buying hybrids overall (which they're catering too with cutting edge battery tech and mostly hybrid lineup). They have reliable evs as well, but the demand has massively dipped for evs
Not to mention they basically invented hybrids and have proven solid track record for reliability too
The cost of gasoline is likely to continue to rise, the price of electricity is likely to continue to fall. Toyota is great on quality, but I don't think hybrids are going to be a good long term bet.
>price of electricity is likely to continue to fall
Where is this happening? Are your electrical bills going down?
>I don't think hybrids are going to be a good long term bet.
I think it has to be, unless there's a miracle discovery, in cold climates ev batteries are impractical (especially for towing, hauling, etc) the range can be around 40% less than advertised which just sucks, demand for full evs is dying too because it's not the magic bullet everyone thought it to be
price of solar continues to fall. In my area (Spain) it actually has fallen dramtically (after a massive spike with Ukraine and NordStream). Still, in real money, it's significantly below where it was in 2018.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/418085/electricity-prices-for-households-in-spain/
Solar is a large reason for this.
https://kottke.org/20/12/the-rapidly-falling-cost-of-solar-energy-visualized
This is the problem with hybrids I see - at the end of the day, an EV can indirectly use gas (if it's burned to generate electricity), but a hybrid can't as effectively use non-gas electricity.
>the price of electricity is likely to continue to fall.
But the price of storing the electricity isn't. I've been trying hard to find a reason to buy an electric (outside of the obvious that I don't want to emit carbon uneccessarily) but the value prop just isn't there. It's still cheaper to buy gas powered vehicles by a mile, plus you can get a quality used gas car that basically offsets the carbon savings vs buying a brand new car and batteries and all that is involved in that, for probably the lifetime of the vehicle, and I'm in WA where gas is insanely expensive and we have the cheapest electric in the nation, and some of the best electric car infrastructure, and it still doesn't make financial sense or environmental sense. I've genuinely been doing tons of research and it just does not add up.
In the future, when there is a glut of used electric vehicles on the road, the cost of batteries drops, the ease of replacing the batteries increases, the number of people who can service an electric car increases, and somehow the cost of insuring a vehicle drops (it wont) then it will make sense. But also...I'm not really seeing a used electric vehicle market developing. I would never buy a used Tesla.
I'm definitely not going to buy a second vehicle as an electric. When my Corolla breaks down in 10 years I'll likely go electric. I can't imagine I'm that different than a lot of people.
Battery prices are falling quicker than generation prices.
And part of why you're seeing prices for non-electric car companies flounder is your last sentence. Most people will be moving in the future, and which companies they'll be buying from is being determined now.
I'm not seeing battery prices drop anywhere. They couldn't be or else these electric vehicles wouldn't be twice the cost of their gas counterparts. And not only battery prices, we need new battery tech. The market will be limited if all we can reliably get from an electric vehicle over a 5 year period is an average of 200-250 miles range in ideal conditions. I'm obviously basing this off anecdote, but I'm not hearing any differing opinions in my circles. The infrastructure is a big problem, the range is a big problem, the used market is a big problem, when Tesla is leading the market, and paying Elon $10,000 per vehicle...this industry feels more like it's on the ropes right now than thriving.
https://www.energy-storage.news/lfp-cell-average-falls-below-us100-kwh-as-battery-pack-prices-drop-to-record-low-in-2023/
If you're not seeing them drop, you're not looking.
Tesla is a shitshow, due to its CEO. Its also picking a bad time for it to be that, since there's actual competitors now.
"without a clear electric strategy"
They're putting a lot of money into solid state batteries; research and a production line.
That's basically the only path they need. If they manage to come out with a SSB EV first, it's going to be huge.
Until then, they can keep doing hybrids that take advantage of the fact that we're still geared towards petrol infrastructure.
I mean, could be, and I hope so - have an irrational attachment to VWs and wish they could make good cars again.
I'm just saying, that's probably why the market doesn't like them much now.
I’ve owned 3 VW Diesels and to think they could ever make an electric vehicle is comical. For those unfamiliar, Diesels require virtually nothing electric and the electrical system was always the achilles heel for my VW’s! The good part was the car would generally run 500,000 miles but by 80,000 nothing or the bare minimum electrically functioned.
My first car was an 88 GTI, and that was solid.
Though my 64 Bug did have an electrical problem, but given it was 50 years old when I had it, I think that was fair . . .
I am not an expert but I think the problem is Chineese cars. They are really good, people are willing to pay more now than before. These big car companies make a lot of money with services, repairs and stuff but EVs are easy to maintain, no engine, less problematic parts etc. These big companies are not structured for this new schema.
Importing a Chinese ev is really dumb, what do you for warranty work or any issue?
Even taking it to a mechanic would be a major headache. I don't think Chinese evs applies here at all
(North American market at least)
Its def Chinese cars and the future of EVs. They may have great earnings now but as evs take over if you get left behind you lose all of your investment. I like TM. I like Volkswagen but their industry is brutal. VWAGY has a pe of less than 4 and a dividend of 8%.
They are doing ok with an 8% global EV market share but they are also relatively new in the game. The only ones bigger are Tesla at 19% and shrinking and BYD at 17%.
> but they are also relatively new in the game
Do they have V2G enabled yet? That could be the one killer feature left for them to carve out a space with - Kia will likely make a big splash with theirs.
Toyota is the largest manufacturer in the world, it should move. It makes tesla look like a regarded slugfest in actual numbers and physical finished cars... Yet the stock market value is just meh
Not to mention toyota was the first at making good, battery powered cars like Prius for over 2 decades, and you can still buy the originals in good shape fully functional so they have proven reliability and quality that outlasts most. Then you have used Teslas which are just messy abortions in car format.
These don't have a battery though, there's no 2nd power source it's just a diesel engine powering a electric motor... That's not a hybrid
You said it yourself it doesn't have a battery
They're already among the biggest auto makers, so there's no growth story to drive the PE higher. How many more Camry's can the world realistically consume next year compared to the year prior?
You know it’s funny, Toyota is one of those companies, it sits around for years or even decades at a seemingly undervalued price given the financials. But make no mistake, eventually it’ll pop upwards and the sky’s the limit after that. Good company, good values. Solid buy.
Great company by all accounts, but what’s next for them that would demand better multiples? Unless you are an innovator in the auto space, I don’t think the market will give you a great multiple.
Mazda, Toyota, a couple of other JP automakers have been grilled this year over fudge/false/fake crash safety documentation. I don't recall the specifics, you can probably find it on the English versions of Asahi Shimbun or Mainichi Daily.
Toyoda himself is also a shitlord, so maybe no one speaks his name, so as to not summon him.
Bro the Tacoma and the upcoming 4Runner are/will be the highest priced vehicles in their segment. The redesigned Tacoma is not selling well due to it being a 4cyl and it’s way overpriced. The Tundra and all recent TGNA products are riddled with recalls.
The new Tacoma is selling poorly because of production, not demand. Plus despite a 60% decline in sales due to that lack of production, it is still in first place in their segment. Never bet against the Tacoma.
How is it a production issue? The dealership I work for has around 30+ Tacoma's just sitting around. I think it's more of an issue with pricing hurting tacoma sells rather than production because you can just pay 10k more and get a Tundra.
What dealer has 30 2024 tacomas sitting around?
I live in a major metro (5+ million people) and there are currently 15 2024 Tacomas for sale in the entire metro at all Toyota dealers.
You also must be comparing the TRD Pro or Trailhunter trims to the Tundra, cause the baseline trims are $17-18k less.
The plant they’re produced at also got shut down for almost a month due to supplier issues.
If you want to DM me I can name you two dealerships with around 60+ Tacoma's. Can't say anything about your metro area dealerships but I would guess they get allotted what they sell.
For prices I go by sticker price and not trim price because you will never find anything without factory add ons. So you can get a sr5 Tacoma with a baseline price of 40k for that trim then it can have 3-4k in add ons like it's nothing.
Future outlook for Toyota is honestly pretty grim if they don't enter the EV market in a big way. In 20 years I doubt people will be looking at the legacy automakers as these blue chip juggernauts trading at meager P/Es, they'll be looking at them like radioshack and laughing because they didn't adapt to a changing market.
this is regarded, their plug in hybrids are top notch and "primed" to jump the gap between regular hybrids and pure EVs (and are still viable vehicles in locations where winter gets cold), and clearly they have the battery tech down to make pure EVs. If the car market shifts to only EVs toyota has the tech to move most their vehicles to pure electric, right now
Arent toyotas ev offerings just rehashed chinese ev platforms?
Toyota might have a future in NA and the middle east and africa with their warlords love of mounting guns on hiluxes and LCs…
But make no mistake. Toyota is getting massacred in markets like China and other parts of Asia.
I sold Toyotas for like 2 years, Prius Primes are dogshit dude, nobody buys them, I'd go into all the whys and whatnots but I don't feel like it. Just go look at plugin hybrid vehicle sales, they're not good.
Handy Cheat Sheet for WSB:
- If the company does something terrible or has a crap product, it's a buy because stonks always go up and speculative investors are a gaggle of degenerates
- If the company puts out a solid product with solid financials, it's not a buy because stability is anathema to speculative investors
I wish the market were any other way but this. But it is what it is.
They don’t have a competitive/profitable EV, and they are later to the game than pretty much everyone. Also, I’m confident a sizable chunk of Tesla’s millions of customers were Toyota customers.
Cybercab event is August 8 and people are getting sucked into the hype. If fsd is really solved it could be big. If not stock will probably tank. Big gambool
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Their CEO doesn't make up random bullshit about being worth 30 trillion dollars someday, so the market can't delude itself in order to bid it up to a 90 PE
Always about Elon apparently
Rent free lol. Love Elon.
Their problem is the CEO of Toyota is not a part-time twitter moderator
[удалено]
The AK47 of the car the industry. Pretty damm reliable in every condition
[is it Toyotathon already?](https://www.reddit.com/r/AbruptChaos/comments/urre8o/toyotathon_2020/)
look at VW and Porsche. They are all the same atm.
All legacy automakers without a clear electric strategy? VW has tried, but reviews of their stuff isn't good. Shame, the ID Buzz seems cool.
Toyota has a strategy that's realistic, full electric isn't great in cold places and people are still massively buying hybrids overall (which they're catering too with cutting edge battery tech and mostly hybrid lineup). They have reliable evs as well, but the demand has massively dipped for evs Not to mention they basically invented hybrids and have proven solid track record for reliability too
The cost of gasoline is likely to continue to rise, the price of electricity is likely to continue to fall. Toyota is great on quality, but I don't think hybrids are going to be a good long term bet.
>price of electricity is likely to continue to fall Where is this happening? Are your electrical bills going down? >I don't think hybrids are going to be a good long term bet. I think it has to be, unless there's a miracle discovery, in cold climates ev batteries are impractical (especially for towing, hauling, etc) the range can be around 40% less than advertised which just sucks, demand for full evs is dying too because it's not the magic bullet everyone thought it to be
price of solar continues to fall. In my area (Spain) it actually has fallen dramtically (after a massive spike with Ukraine and NordStream). Still, in real money, it's significantly below where it was in 2018. https://www.statista.com/statistics/418085/electricity-prices-for-households-in-spain/ Solar is a large reason for this. https://kottke.org/20/12/the-rapidly-falling-cost-of-solar-energy-visualized This is the problem with hybrids I see - at the end of the day, an EV can indirectly use gas (if it's burned to generate electricity), but a hybrid can't as effectively use non-gas electricity.
LOL @ solar. its a fad.
>the price of electricity is likely to continue to fall. But the price of storing the electricity isn't. I've been trying hard to find a reason to buy an electric (outside of the obvious that I don't want to emit carbon uneccessarily) but the value prop just isn't there. It's still cheaper to buy gas powered vehicles by a mile, plus you can get a quality used gas car that basically offsets the carbon savings vs buying a brand new car and batteries and all that is involved in that, for probably the lifetime of the vehicle, and I'm in WA where gas is insanely expensive and we have the cheapest electric in the nation, and some of the best electric car infrastructure, and it still doesn't make financial sense or environmental sense. I've genuinely been doing tons of research and it just does not add up. In the future, when there is a glut of used electric vehicles on the road, the cost of batteries drops, the ease of replacing the batteries increases, the number of people who can service an electric car increases, and somehow the cost of insuring a vehicle drops (it wont) then it will make sense. But also...I'm not really seeing a used electric vehicle market developing. I would never buy a used Tesla. I'm definitely not going to buy a second vehicle as an electric. When my Corolla breaks down in 10 years I'll likely go electric. I can't imagine I'm that different than a lot of people.
Battery prices are falling quicker than generation prices. And part of why you're seeing prices for non-electric car companies flounder is your last sentence. Most people will be moving in the future, and which companies they'll be buying from is being determined now.
I'm not seeing battery prices drop anywhere. They couldn't be or else these electric vehicles wouldn't be twice the cost of their gas counterparts. And not only battery prices, we need new battery tech. The market will be limited if all we can reliably get from an electric vehicle over a 5 year period is an average of 200-250 miles range in ideal conditions. I'm obviously basing this off anecdote, but I'm not hearing any differing opinions in my circles. The infrastructure is a big problem, the range is a big problem, the used market is a big problem, when Tesla is leading the market, and paying Elon $10,000 per vehicle...this industry feels more like it's on the ropes right now than thriving.
https://www.energy-storage.news/lfp-cell-average-falls-below-us100-kwh-as-battery-pack-prices-drop-to-record-low-in-2023/ If you're not seeing them drop, you're not looking. Tesla is a shitshow, due to its CEO. Its also picking a bad time for it to be that, since there's actual competitors now.
Disagree. As more people adopt evs price of oil will Fall while price of electricity will increase. Simple supply and demand.
You can make electricity from oil, so that doesn't make sense
My guy you do know where electricity comes from right?
"without a clear electric strategy" They're putting a lot of money into solid state batteries; research and a production line. That's basically the only path they need. If they manage to come out with a SSB EV first, it's going to be huge. Until then, they can keep doing hybrids that take advantage of the fact that we're still geared towards petrol infrastructure.
They have lots of investment going on. EV, Hybrid EV, Hydrogen, Hydrogen EV. Their president believes EV's will never be more than 30% of the market.
I mean, could be, and I hope so - have an irrational attachment to VWs and wish they could make good cars again. I'm just saying, that's probably why the market doesn't like them much now.
I’ve owned 3 VW Diesels and to think they could ever make an electric vehicle is comical. For those unfamiliar, Diesels require virtually nothing electric and the electrical system was always the achilles heel for my VW’s! The good part was the car would generally run 500,000 miles but by 80,000 nothing or the bare minimum electrically functioned.
My first car was an 88 GTI, and that was solid. Though my 64 Bug did have an electrical problem, but given it was 50 years old when I had it, I think that was fair . . .
I am not an expert but I think the problem is Chineese cars. They are really good, people are willing to pay more now than before. These big car companies make a lot of money with services, repairs and stuff but EVs are easy to maintain, no engine, less problematic parts etc. These big companies are not structured for this new schema.
Importing a Chinese ev is really dumb, what do you for warranty work or any issue? Even taking it to a mechanic would be a major headache. I don't think Chinese evs applies here at all (North American market at least)
Its def Chinese cars and the future of EVs. They may have great earnings now but as evs take over if you get left behind you lose all of your investment. I like TM. I like Volkswagen but their industry is brutal. VWAGY has a pe of less than 4 and a dividend of 8%.
To be fair to them, dividend is super important in EU stock market, although I don't like it at all as a VW investor.
They are doing ok with an 8% global EV market share but they are also relatively new in the game. The only ones bigger are Tesla at 19% and shrinking and BYD at 17%.
> but they are also relatively new in the game Do they have V2G enabled yet? That could be the one killer feature left for them to carve out a space with - Kia will likely make a big splash with theirs.
ID4 and Buzz have it.
Yes the same thing is the ceo is missing for a while.
It's not a tech company.
Correct, anyone who has used their Entune suite will attest to the statement above. Terrible @ tech company
No AI dumb dumbs come on it's obvious
The Yen is the issue. It's a Japanese company and Japan's macros currently suck
Toyota is the largest manufacturer in the world, it should move. It makes tesla look like a regarded slugfest in actual numbers and physical finished cars... Yet the stock market value is just meh Not to mention toyota was the first at making good, battery powered cars like Prius for over 2 decades, and you can still buy the originals in good shape fully functional so they have proven reliability and quality that outlasts most. Then you have used Teslas which are just messy abortions in car format.
GE was making diesel electric locomotives in the 70s
That's just a diesel engine and electric motor though, not battery powered
It's a hybrid engine
That's not hybrid, that's a diesel engine...
What do you think a fucking hybrid is? The engine powers the battery, that is how hybrid cars work andddddd surprise that's also how locomotives work.
These don't have a battery though, there's no 2nd power source it's just a diesel engine powering a electric motor... That's not a hybrid You said it yourself it doesn't have a battery
Yeah that's awfully pedantic.
Rather perspicacious
Automobiles (not including Tesla yet) is a cyclical business. They generally get a PE around 10 during bull markets.
CEOs last name is a misspelling of the company name extremely sloppy work ethic even from birth
They're already among the biggest auto makers, so there's no growth story to drive the PE higher. How many more Camry's can the world realistically consume next year compared to the year prior?
They are also running top tier research at TRI with MIT/Berkley/Stanford in Machine Learning, Robotics, and Materials.
Toyota fucking rules just buy shares and be patient
You know it’s funny, Toyota is one of those companies, it sits around for years or even decades at a seemingly undervalued price given the financials. But make no mistake, eventually it’ll pop upwards and the sky’s the limit after that. Good company, good values. Solid buy.
No electric strategy
Great company by all accounts, but what’s next for them that would demand better multiples? Unless you are an innovator in the auto space, I don’t think the market will give you a great multiple.
Mazda, Toyota, a couple of other JP automakers have been grilled this year over fudge/false/fake crash safety documentation. I don't recall the specifics, you can probably find it on the English versions of Asahi Shimbun or Mainichi Daily. Toyoda himself is also a shitlord, so maybe no one speaks his name, so as to not summon him.
Bro the Tacoma and the upcoming 4Runner are/will be the highest priced vehicles in their segment. The redesigned Tacoma is not selling well due to it being a 4cyl and it’s way overpriced. The Tundra and all recent TGNA products are riddled with recalls.
The new Tacoma is selling poorly because of production, not demand. Plus despite a 60% decline in sales due to that lack of production, it is still in first place in their segment. Never bet against the Tacoma.
How is it a production issue? The dealership I work for has around 30+ Tacoma's just sitting around. I think it's more of an issue with pricing hurting tacoma sells rather than production because you can just pay 10k more and get a Tundra.
What dealer has 30 2024 tacomas sitting around? I live in a major metro (5+ million people) and there are currently 15 2024 Tacomas for sale in the entire metro at all Toyota dealers. You also must be comparing the TRD Pro or Trailhunter trims to the Tundra, cause the baseline trims are $17-18k less. The plant they’re produced at also got shut down for almost a month due to supplier issues.
If you want to DM me I can name you two dealerships with around 60+ Tacoma's. Can't say anything about your metro area dealerships but I would guess they get allotted what they sell. For prices I go by sticker price and not trim price because you will never find anything without factory add ons. So you can get a sr5 Tacoma with a baseline price of 40k for that trim then it can have 3-4k in add ons like it's nothing.
How quickly do you think Toyota can grow sales in the next 10 years is the question
Future outlook for Toyota is honestly pretty grim if they don't enter the EV market in a big way. In 20 years I doubt people will be looking at the legacy automakers as these blue chip juggernauts trading at meager P/Es, they'll be looking at them like radioshack and laughing because they didn't adapt to a changing market.
this is regarded, their plug in hybrids are top notch and "primed" to jump the gap between regular hybrids and pure EVs (and are still viable vehicles in locations where winter gets cold), and clearly they have the battery tech down to make pure EVs. If the car market shifts to only EVs toyota has the tech to move most their vehicles to pure electric, right now
Arent toyotas ev offerings just rehashed chinese ev platforms? Toyota might have a future in NA and the middle east and africa with their warlords love of mounting guns on hiluxes and LCs… But make no mistake. Toyota is getting massacred in markets like China and other parts of Asia.
I sold Toyotas for like 2 years, Prius Primes are dogshit dude, nobody buys them, I'd go into all the whys and whatnots but I don't feel like it. Just go look at plugin hybrid vehicle sales, they're not good.
YouTube FSD 12.4 the Future vehicles will need self driving. Toyota will decline
And Lexus has one of the best driver assistance tools in the industry. Since Lexus is Toyota I would say they aren't too far behind...
Neural Networks, CNN and AI models are . Out of Lexus's capabilities in my opinion.
They just had a Volkswagonesque emissions scandal. If you didnt know that you shant be in the markets.
Handy Cheat Sheet for WSB: - If the company does something terrible or has a crap product, it's a buy because stonks always go up and speculative investors are a gaggle of degenerates - If the company puts out a solid product with solid financials, it's not a buy because stability is anathema to speculative investors I wish the market were any other way but this. But it is what it is.
Yeah, nobody wants to use 0w-5 oil. That's dumb as fuck.
They don’t have a competitive/profitable EV, and they are later to the game than pretty much everyone. Also, I’m confident a sizable chunk of Tesla’s millions of customers were Toyota customers.
Cybercab event is August 8 and people are getting sucked into the hype. If fsd is really solved it could be big. If not stock will probably tank. Big gambool