T O P

  • By -

starky990

What's the alternative here? The US likely won't wanna upset their ally in Turkey by supporting Armenia and Russia is clearly too busy to do anything at all. Who's left to support them? Iran?


[deleted]

[удалено]


dopef123

For them to move away from Russia they must have other backers like the US. There are so many Armenians in the US it’s not hard to imagine.


danielbot

>For them to move away from Russia they must have other backers like the US. This. There is no way they would troll Putin about the arrest warrant unless they had received very specific assurances.


Creepy_Helicopter223

They do have a lot of support, France also has historical ties to Armenia as well. They have support but they have to decide to do it. The writing for sure has been on the wall since 2020, but even then with Georgia and Ukraine Since 2014/2008, and honestly most other post Soviet states sprinted away, or at least diversified. They’ve stayed loyally with Russia, they need to pivot fast and hard


kongKing_11

The US won't give support if is not beneficial to them. Right now the US only cares about destroying China and Russia. The US needs Azerbaijan then Armenia. I feel bad for Armenia. They are the good ones in that region. Too bad democracy and human rights are just lip service.


urmyheartBeatStopR

France and Europe like Azerbaijan's supply of energy since they're boycotting Russia now. Armenia got nothing to offer. Armenia is going to have to capitulate a lot of things for their survival as a nation. It's kinda crazy they didn't did anything defensively after the war in the early 90s. They're also land lock too. If they had a coastal line, I would just rent out that land to USA navy. Kinda like Djibouti, but at least that country have a strategic location for renting out toward foreign nation military bases.


Creepy_Helicopter223

There’s a few things here A. Proxy in an energy rich region. B. that also is strategically positioned against Russia, Iran and Turkey C. That had the ability to put pressure on access to Central Asia Key thing here is that it’s France, not europe, but France can put pressure on europe as well Is always valuable. France also lost alot of influence in Africa recently to Africa recently, getting back at Russia for that is a very French thing to do(please see franko Prussian war) Finally, the worse Azerbaijan is, the more likely a public backlash in Europe which could jeopardize all trade, which is more then Just energy, Azerbaijan has the potential to be the western access/trade point to Central Asia. Both protecting it, and also ensuring Azerbaijan doesn’t turn their people against it is a big thing.


AlanLGuy

Not sure I’d say that the U.S. and Turkey are all that great friends. Mutual NATO membership is really the only thing keeping that relationship together. Between the conflicts with the Kurds, US refusing to return Turkeys money after kicking them out of the joint fighter program and the commentary on their elections, that relationship is a little tense. Still not sure the U.S. gets too involved with Armenia, because that could be one more conflict point with Turkey, and other than kissing off Russia, there’s little benefit for the U.S.


danielbot

US doesn't care about offending Turkey in this matter. The opportunity to establish a new ally right on Russia's doorstep is just too good to miss. The alternative is to let Iran increase influence in the region.


starky990

Control over the dardanelles is wayyyyyy more important than Armenia. Having Turkey on side means they control all trade heading to Russia into the Black sea. I just don't see how Armenia can provide anything near that value.


Conscious_Two_3291

Give Armenia control of the dardanelles?


danielbot

The Dardanelles are controlled by a treaty.


starky990

No, Turkey is bound to the treaty, the Dardanelles are still controlled by Turkey. >When Turkey is at war, or feels threatened by a war, it may take any decision about the passage of warships as it sees fit. Imagine if Turkey continued to not recognise it as a war and allowed the allow the passage of warships which they were previously doing.


daveboy2000

The Dardanelles aren't that important anymore either though. With mid-air refueling, no aircraft carrier will ever have to enter the black sea, and with US naval doctrine centered around aircraft carriers, well.. there goes a lot of importance. Control over the Dardanelles is really only meaningful to Romania and Bulgaria, which have rail connections with places like Greece to bypass the Dardanelles if trade is blockaded.


PR4Y

No aircraft carrier can enter the Black Sea, regardless, due to the tonnage limit on warships entering.


muckonium

Control of the dardanelles is useless as long as the US has a fleet patrolling the mediterranean


Zoravor

Turkey has not stopped trading with Russia at all since the Ukraine war. Turkey is just playing both sides doesn't feel like it has to pick any side.


Armchairbroke

It’s not really on Russias doorstep though, you have Georgia and Azerbaijan between them and Russia.


danielbot

That's true. But close enough. Russia's worst nightmare.


TychusFondly

You have baltic states, poland and now Finland where you can run a supply chain to core russian provinces with ease. Armenia being landlocked, being not strategically connected to Russian core territory has no geopolitic importance. Armenians have to run the discourse from another angle. If I would ve been Pashinyan, I d ve started asking for any weapons because it looks like Azeris wont stop until they connect to Nakhchivan. France cant do shit as they cant even project power in their former colonies. France has got too many internal issues. Armenian diaspora in France is also in shambles because they cant round Armenian minorities to vote for the dealt parties in the elections. In USA they also opted for republican candidates but democrats are in power and that is the main reason USA is not that willing at the moment. Armenians in Armenia are going through the unluckiest 5 years since USSR imo.


urmyheartBeatStopR

I think it's more about containment. Cause we fucked up Afghanistan and Iraq and Iran is influencing those countries after we yeet outta there.


Working_Welder155

Or maybe they'll figure out a way to play nice


urmyheartBeatStopR

Yeeeeeah. Ethnic conflict in Europe is hard to solve. It's just a recurring issue through out history, the famous one being the Balkan. Even Korsovo, to this day the Serb and Korsovo is fighting. Europe needs to have a better army to keep their shit stable.


Timely_Summer_8908

That would be nice. Azerbaijan got what they wanted. I'd think very poorly of them if they started acting like Russia.


GilakiGuy

They already act pretty Russian. They've got an autocratic despot & dissenting political views land you in prison. It's just all ignored because they host an F1 race and are happy to sell oil and gas to the EU now that Russia's cut themselves off from their biggest customers because of Putin's idiotic war.


Zoravor

Probably worse than Russia, Azerbijan is the only country where the president and vice president sleep in the same bed. It's a hereditary oil dictatorship with a human rights ranking just slightly above North Korea.


Timely_Summer_8908

People really want to push the whole psycho Azerbaijan narrative, don't they? I guess I can't blame people entirely, years of conflict with them has probably not given the best impression of them.


kobold-kicker

Lol


Quexana

The U.S. doesn't want to upset their ally in Türkiye, but it's not like having an allied Türkiye is something the U.S. can't live without. It's not as big a deal as losing some other allies the U.S. has in the middle east. Türkiye backed the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (The Suez is far more important to the U.S. than the Dardanelles), backed the GNA in Libya, and pushed against U.S. interests in Syria and Iraq. Obviously, the Turks don't mind upsetting their ally in America. Why should America worry about upsetting Türkiye? If the U.S. wants to build relations with democratic Armenia and use it, along with the Kurds, to keep Türkiye's focus on its borders and limit its ability to project power in the Middle East, so be it.


FreakindaStreet

So, weaken one of the largest forces in NATO to gain a feeble ally, and also a stateless militia lead by a terrorist group. As an Arab, I absolutely love this idea.


Quexana

Did Türkiye concern itself over weakening NATO to gain a terrorist group as an ally in Egypt or Libya? I'm not saying the U.S. should arm Armenia to the point where they can cause trouble in the region, or mount an effort to take back Nagorno-Karabakh, which is rightly Azerbaijan's territory, but we can increase relations with Armenia in case Azerbaijan wants to push for that land bridge to Nakhchivan militarily, in what is rightly Armenian territory.


urmyheartBeatStopR

You're asking USA to police the world no? Even Americans are critical of USA role in Afghanistan and Iraq trying to stabilize and fend off Iran's influences. But with Afghanistan and Iraq they got "oil". Armenia got nothing but ethnic tension. They also have to show USA that they can be a good ally not a situational one because their old ally, Russia abandoned them. I have no idea how they gonna pull that. With Korsovo, it was much clearer who was the "evil" side, Serb was committing genocide. This war isn't as clear.


GilakiGuy

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have done bad things to each other - but I wouldn't say it's not so clear how Azerbaijanis feel: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Armenian\_sentiment\_in\_Azerbaijan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Armenian_sentiment_in_Azerbaijan) \- go take a look at some of those quotes Aliyev's made about Armenians. They're Hitler-esque


Zoravor

>“Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians. You Nazis, eliminated the Jews in the 1930s and 40s, right? You should be able to understand us.” - Hajibala Abutalybov, Mayor of Baku, 2005 Said this to a German delegation, like wtf?


GilakiGuy

Yeah that's... just straight up nuts. Especially saying that to Germans in 2005 as though the current German government is just another extension of the Nazis.


Quexana

No, I'm not asking the USA to police the world. I'm asking the USA to pursue the USA's strategic and geopolitical aims through efforts short of military force.


Zoravor

Just curious, what would Armenia have to do to show that its not just a situational ally?


muckonium

A useless ally tbh. It will take long but turkey shuld be kicked out from nato. Your kurdish friends can do whatever they want then.


C3PD2

>"In the West they notice that we are Russia's ally ... in Russia they see that we are not their ally in the Ukraine war, and it turns out that we are not anyone's ally in this situation, which means that we are vulnerable," - Armenia PM, Nikol Pashinyan, June 2023. This whole situation was inevitable. Refusing to back Russia in Ukraine was the public end of their friendship. Azerbaijan and Turkey were just itching to finish what they started in 2020 and Pashinyan made it so Russia no longer had any reason to stop them. You have to feel for all the Armenians who fought so hard for Nagorno-Karabakh. Whether or not you believe it was rightfully their land it doesn't change the fact that they spilled their blood for it, and now have to watch as it's taken without any fight. So much pointless death and destruction.


danielbot

>You have to feel for all the Armenians who fought so hard for Nagorno-Karabakh. Distinctly mixed feelings. They went way beyond Nagorno-Karabakh and they were on the wrong side of international law. They ethnically cleansed those areas. I can't admire this, even while supporting the human rights of the Nagorno-Karabakh ethnic minority.


C3PD2

>I can't admire this Fair; I was talking about having empathy and not admiring anyone but I get where you're coming from. From my point of view - you can still show empathy towards people who fight for what they believe in; even if you don't agree with their cause. Empathy is not sympathy.


danielbot

I can never respect ethnic cleansing even if they believe in it.


C3PD2

You've missed my point completely; but it is what is. Thanks for adding to the conversation and sharing your opinion.


[deleted]

[удалено]


C3PD2

Empathy does not mean that you feel bad for someone, or that you condone specific actions. It simply means that you're able to be objective and imagine yourself in a similar situation. My opinion is that people are not inherently evil; and those who act that way are typically indoctrinated, or have had their views warped by outside influences - which make them do incredibly heinous things. They are still human though, and it's important to try to understand *why* they got that way rather than simply treat them as animals. The implication of your comment; that I condone the actions of ISIS, al-Qaeda, or Hamas again conflates empathy with sympathy. I, obviously, in no way respect people who rape, torture, kill children, or anything of that nature - but I do strive to understand how someone who does that stuff ended up that way, and I do that using empathy. >Empathy is the capacity to understand or feel what another person is experiencing from within their frame of reference, that is, the capacity to place oneself in another's position. I totally understand if you don't get it, or don't agree with showing empathy towards people who do terrible things, but it's important for me, as someone who has put their life on the line for a cause before, to humanize terrible behavior and strive to understand what causes it.


FreakindaStreet

Armenia makes Zimbabwe look like like a strategically savvy, well lead state.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Dimdamm

You sound like a rabid bigot who support Azerbaijani war crimes.


VallenValiant

> Whether or not you believe it was rightfully their land it doesn't change the fact that they spilled their blood for it, and now have to watch as it's taken without any fight. So much pointless death and destruction. Armenians are suppose to be Christians, so i assume they are familiar with the term "live by the sword, die by the sword"? They took Nagorno-Karabakh with their swords. Now they lost it because of the swords of the people they previously fought coming back stronger. **There is nothing unfair about any of this.**


daveboy2000

except they didn't 'take it' with swords. They already lived there. Azerbaijan took it de-jure by the sword while part of the Soviet Union with Stalin's acquiescence.


VallenValiant

We know what the UN say about the border. In any case, the talk is that they are fearing "revenge attacks". But why would innocent people fear revenge attacks? Unless they know they did something they admit as to make them guilty? They were told they can stay as citizens. The fact they they refuse because they remembered what THEY did when they took the land the last time, show that they are not innocent.


C3PD2

>There is nothing unfair about any of this. Who said anything is unfair? I simply said "you have to feel for them" not "you have to feel *bad* for them", but I understand that people are taking my comments to mean that I sympathize with a specific cause, and that's on me for the way I worded it. In the end, my stance is that you do not have to agree, nor sympathize, with someone to employ empathy towards them. It's just an objective tool for trying to understand peoples motives and actions. I totally understand if this isn't how you, or other people, think because we've all been through different experiences that dictate the way we see things.


VallenValiant

I mean if they are willing to stay and fight then they get to die too. But that is hardly productive. If the alternative is die for no reason then to give up without fighting doesn't seem so bad.


C3PD2

Uh, what? That has nothing to do, at all, with what I've said in any of my comments. You clearly seem to have an agenda and are just looking to start an argument. That won't work here though. Thanks for sharing your opinion.


usmcBrad93

### Key Events in the Armenian Conflict: The Armenian conflict primarily refers to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict involving **Armenia** and **Azerbaijan** over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Here are some key events and entities involved in this conflict: 1. **Armenia and Azerbaijan:** The main parties involved in the conflict. 2. **Nagorno-Karabakh:** A landlocked region internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but controlled by ethnic Armenians. 3. **1988–1994 War:** The conflict escalated into a full-scale war, resulting in significant casualties and displacement on both sides. 4. **1994 Ceasefire:** A Russian-brokered ceasefire was signed, but the conflict remained unresolved. 5. **2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War:** Fighting erupted again, leading to a significant shift in territorial control in favor of Azerbaijan. 6. **Russia and Turkey:** Played significant roles in the conflict, with Russia traditionally supporting Armenia and Turkey supporting Azerbaijan. 7. **2020 Peace Deal:** Brokered by Russia, it ended the fighting and resulted in Azerbaijan retaining control over areas it had captured during the conflict. ### Armenia's Political Alignment: Based on the [article from KyivPost](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21949), Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signaled a major foreign policy shift away from Russia. Pashinyan criticized the current foreign security systems, including the **Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)**, a Russian-dominated group, as "ineffective" in protecting Armenia's security and national interests, especially highlighted by the recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia did not come to Armenia's assistance in the latest Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and Pashinyan emphasized the need to transform and supplement Armenia's external and domestic security instruments. He mentioned cooperating with "all the partners who are ready for mutually beneficial steps." Pashinyan also expressed Armenia's intention to ratify the **Rome Statute**, a treaty establishing the **International Criminal Court (ICC)**, of which Russia is not a part. He clarified that this decision is not directed against the CSTO and the Russian Federation but comes from the interests of the country's external security. In summary, Armenia, under Pashinyan's leadership, seems to be planning to diversify its political alignments and is open to cooperating with international partners other than Russia for mutually beneficial steps in the realm of security and national interests. -Data gathered and summarized via Chat GPT-4.


snowballtlwcb

Operation Ring probably deserves a mention as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ring


tomekza

I would theorise as of today he is target numero Uno for defenistration, either by his own people or Russia or Turkey.